By Jo Nova
Shh. The Renewable Crash Test Dummy Nation is at work.
We’re still subsidizing new solar panels even as we figure out how to shut down the excess panels we already have.
The body responsible for keeping the lights on in Australia’s biggest electricity grids wants emergency powers to switch off or throttle rooftop solar in every state to help cope with the daily flood of output from millions of systems.
It turns out those negative prices for electricity at midday are there for a reason. A firehose of electricity at lunchtime isn’t always a good thing. Negative prices are not a bargain, they’re the penalty a seller has to pay to get someone to take the toxic waste away, and the price signal was saying “Don’t Add More Solar”.
The amazing thing is that an institution with fifteen years of grid management didn’t see this coming fifteen years ago. Does night follow day? Is there any industry that runs better for only four hours a day rather than for 24?
The AEMO surely knew that without a Sea-of-Galilee type miracle in battery storage, the whole nation could not run on lunchtime generators. The AEMO also surely knew that our 50Hz stability comes from 500 ton turbines that spin 3,000 times a minute, and not from flat glass panels that make the wrong kind of electricity (the DC kind, not the AC). Yet here we are, 60 quarterly reports later, swamped with excess solar power to the point where we suddenly need to add remote switches to four million already-installed solar panels, so the guys in the the control rooms can stop them doing the one thing they are supposed to do at the time of day when they are best at doing it.
The disaster days are now Spring — when the sun is shining but people don’t need their air conditioners on, which begs the question of whether we just need to issue emergency announcements to turn on the dishwashers, pool pumps and ovens to save the grid. You know, “Pyrolytic Ovens save the day, people”.
In any case, wasn’t climate change going to turn spring into summer? Won’t this problem solve itself as spring disappears and long hot summers take over the calendar? No one seems to be saying that now…
Solar is pushing out the “other” forms of generation that are keeping the grid stable
AEMO said the ever growing output from solar was posing an increasing threat to the safety and security of the grid because it was pushing out all other forms of generation that were needed to help keep the system stable.
But isn’t the whole point of solar exactly that? Aren’t we supposed to drive out the other sorts of generation because they cause storms and floods and they start wars, kill koalas, and makes babies premature. Are all these things OK now?
Did we say “desperate”?
The AEMO admits what many suspect they are already doing, rather brutally sending voltage spikes down the line to trip out the solar panels:
And it warned that unless it had the power to reduce — or curtail — the amount of rooftop solar times, more drastic and damaging measures would need to be taken.
These could include increasing the voltage levels in parts of the poles-and-wires network to “deliberately” trip or curtail small-scale solar in some areas.
They’re hinting these voltage spikes might damage some delicate equipment. Would you like a big blackout or a small capital loss?
An even more dramatic step would be to “shed” or dump parts of the poles-and-wires network feeding big amounts of excess solar into the grid.
“If sufficient backstop capability is not available … the NEM may be operating insecure for extended periods,” the agency wrote in the report.
The Bureaucrats that wrote this hope you don’t understand it:
“(It may) therefore be operating outside of the risk tolerances specified in the National Electricity Rules, where the loss of a single transmission or generation element may lead to reliance on emergency control schemes to prevent system collapse.
But there it is. They’re talking about “system collapse”.
As it is, new solar panels already have to have the remote control switch built in in WA, SA, Victoria and parts of Queensland. Yesterday was the day when the AEMO announced we needed to do this in every state, and “by next year”.
Just four weeks away…
h/t
I think we’ve got to the stage with the whole climate change energy transition process that people are starting to wake up. They’re realising, rather slowly I might add, that the promises and benefits of the energy transition are both lies and invisible. They’ve noticed lots of the countryside being uglified by wind turbines and solar industrial sites. Everyone’s energy bills just keep going up and they cant afford them. EV’s are cute and really sexy, but there’s seems to be a lot of fires associated with them. Bits of wind turbines have been reported in farmers paddocks situating wind turbines. The feed in tariffs for all those smug people who installed solar panels are reducing and may in fact disappear. But worst of all the power supply dependability appears worse. So, the people are curious now. What is all that climate change science anyway? Is it legit? It seems a whole lot more people are realising now that the science is not settled, not even close. That maybe all the bushfires and storms we experience, may in fact be just a normal part of the Australian climate anyway. In order to persuade the remaindery of the population who either dont have the time to learn about climatology or aren’t interested, we need that system breakdown. We need either Melbourne or Sydney to go dark and it needs to be sooner rather than later.
570
“The feed in tariffs for all those smug people who installed solar panels are reducing and may in fact disappear.”
I’m just waiting for the announcement that solar owners will be charged to supply the grid, kind of like a permanent negative pricing.
270
The negative pricing is just for the plebs. The gummint’s carpetbagger mates with the industrial solar factories have guaranteed rates of return, once again funded by we bunnies in taxpayer land…..
270
No they don’t. Their income is being eroded by rooftop solar. They need AEMO to be able to turn off rooftops so they get some of the demand that is now being served by rooftops.
AEMO nor any of the large scale generators had any clue that rooftops would be the largest lunchtime generator by 2024. Grid scale intermittent are losing market share to rooftops. Most are required to sell electricity into the wholesale market to make money. They also get charged for a portion of the stability costs when they are generating. They are gradually being squeezed out of the market. Ever increasing costs spread across ever diminishing production.
The “last resort” control that AEMO is seeking enables AEMO to advise the grid scale generators that they have control of the rooftops and can limit their output so the grid scale generators get the lions share.
The option for rooftop owners is to instal a battery and just leave the grid.
70
Absolutely 100% correct.
The reason for the AEMO to be trying to shut down domestic solar is because it is AFTER the meter box. It can’t readily be turned off and they have no contracts in place to force the household to play their game. The domestic solar does one thing really well, it eliminates ALL load from the house during the hours of solar max, (even if you can’t sell to the grid).
And without a domestic load base, the many, many commercial solar ‘farms’ are operating significantly curtailed. They have panels, they have sun but they have no customers.
AEMO would like to force the turn off of the domestic solar and let in the commercial units, this would make the user pay for the ‘farm’ output instead of having their own supply for free. I forecast a revolt if the households are FORCED to buy power because the AEMO would like their favourite team to make some money, (at the householder’s expense).
How long before the households, (or some savvy solar company), learn to trick the solar inverters to just keep making power and supplying the grid. It’s actually as easy as installing an auto-transformer on the output to the inverter, (rated of course to the inverter power level), and having the output tapped one or two turns more. This will allow the inverter to see the mains at 240Vac when it is actually several volts higher, (a level where the inverter is usually switched off).
If anyone would like the design solutions, let me know, I can send it through for anyone interested. Legal issues are yours…. of course.
I can imagine that the AEMO will make this illegal within minutes of reading this.
90
Ian,
What happens to the electrons produced from a solar panel if the output wires go open circuit?
I recall at our remote camps with diesel gennies, we would have a lump of scrap iron like an old engine block in a 44 gallon drum of water so that excess electrons from the genny could go there if there was nowhere else wired in at the time.
I used to think that a path to earth was part of the design.
Geoff S
30
A solar panel, in the sun, with no wires connected to it will have a voltage on the output leads equal to the Voc rating of the panel. Voc = Voltage Open Circuit.
Obviously with no wires connected, no electrons can flow and hence there is NO current.
No harm will occur to the panel.
If you take the same panel and short the outputs together, you will get ZERO volts at the short. The current flowing will be at a value known as Isc. Isc = current, (I), under a Short Circuit.
Again, no harm will come to the panel doing this test.
If you multiply the Voltage by the current at EITHER Voc or Isc, you will see that the power transferred is ZERO, because one of the terms is zero and anything times zero is zero.
I have no idea why you would have a lump of iron to absorb any excess electrons, it sounds like someone was winding you up. However, a large BURIED lump of iron, connected to the generator frame/case and distribution board will make a great EARTH connection. This EARTH is often connected to the neutral wire from the generator to provide ONE of the wires with a ground reference, the other then oscillates at the generator frequency, going equally above and below the ground point to create a lovely sine wave pattern, (averaged at zero volts).
50
I just had a much better idea to make the inverter keep working when AEMO want to shut you down. Some electronics background for you first.
To sense the voltage at the OUTPUT of the inverter, the internal circuit will use a pair of resistors, called a voltage divider. It is basically two resistors in series. The top of the pair connected to the inverter OUTPUT, the middle of the pair connected to the internal computer and the bottom of the pair connected to the ground reference.
In operation, the output is going to read 230Vac, if you select the resistors such that the top one has a resistance of 99,000 ohms, and the bottom one as 1,000 ohms, then the voltage at the middle point will be exactly 1/100th of the inverter output.
Okay…. no more maths for you.
Since ALL electronics has some manufacturing errors in them, then it is obvious that these resistors will not be exactly the design value, it might be 99k +/- 1%. Similar for the lower one.
To combat this the designer build in a variable resistor in series with the top, (or bottom), resistor, and reduce the fixed resistor value to suit.
eg 95k + 10k variable for the top and a 1k for the bottom. This allows, with careful trimming of the variable resistor, to set the internal computer to measure the output voltage very accurately.
Now the cunning part. With the inverter in operation, adjust that variable resistor until the voltage at the output goes up by a couple of volts.
And that’s all you need to do. Simples.
And of course. If you get fried doing this, working on a live circuit, then I’m not to blame, Darwin did it.
And yes….. AEMO have probably made this illegal too.
10
“Oh yes, I’m installing solar panels to save the Planet, by cutting back on emissions from those awful coal fired power plants.”
“So, then you’ll be installing a battery and going off the grid then, you know, to show that you’re serious about saving the Planet.”
‘Umm, wait a minute.”
Tony.
60
“They are gradually being squeezed out of the market.”
..and their solar panels are running out of life..
When 20% of the panels have died, the subsidies have stopped and 80% are running at half their new production, what’s a solar farm worth?
The usual solution is to declare bankruptcy and walk away from the mess.
20
Or find a “bigger fool” before that happens.
They’re looking as you read what I type.
They know they’re in possession of a future stranded asset.
00
We need Canberra to go dark FIRST.
430
And disconnect and remove the emergency generators at Parliament House. Donate them to a hospital, school or other worthy cause so they don’t go dark.
250
Or just add bacteria to their fuel tanks and wait a while.
I wonder if they have a process for burning through their fuel to keep it cycled and refreshed. I don’t imagine that they have fleet vehicles ready for this task, so I’m betting the fuel is dumped somewhere cheap or it’s old and maybe no good.
30
There was trouble with a 300Kva 3 phase generator driven by a Volvo Penta engine . The unit had a fancy electronic control on it to allow it to be synchronized with the mains to allow a no interruption changeover and to keep a load supplied during maintenance on the mains . It wouldn’t carry anymore than about 10% of it’s rating . Everyone blamed the electronics because that is ” black magic ” so it ended up on my lap because I was the radio tech . I have been messing around with engines all my life so I could tell straight away that the engine wasn’t even trying , it seemed to starve of fuel and miss when the load was put on . I observed that the solenoid was pulling the rack on the injection pump all the way to max fuel so there was nothing wrong with the black magic . Taking the fuel filter off showed that it was packed solid with orange fluff like sawdust . With new fuel filters what a delight to hear the turbo spin up as the load came on ! Seems there is a bacteria or algae that will grow in diesel fuel if it sits for long enough . There is an additive that you can put in the fuel to prevent that .
60
Diesel Bug.
Huh! I learned about this in the RAAF back in the 70s. Was astonished when I was told it was basically a bacteria that grew in all types of fuels.
Tony.
60
AEMO don’t have an address on their website…. may not be Canberra
20
“Power Down Blunder
“If there is a place on Earth where wind and solar technologies should work, it is Australia. The country’s vast coastline and diverse geography bestow nearly ideal conditions for wind energy turbines, and the sun shines brightly and consistently. According to a detailed country-by-country analysis by the World Bank Group, Australia ranks near the top in global solar potential, and some of its largest commercial solar farms can achieve capacity factors in excess of 40%—roughly four times Germany’s average annual performance. By further comparison, similar facilities in the US average about 25%.
“Blessed with this vast potential for “free fuel,” Australia has spent countless sums developing renewable energy with the stated intention of mostly ridding itself of fossil fuels. Perusing the ever-helpful Statistical Review of World Energy, we find numerical proof of the pace of change. In 2023, the country produced 28% of its electricity from wind and solar, and solar alone nearly eclipsed natural gas. Since 2010, solar electricity production is up by a factor of 45, whereas coal consumption has been cut by a third. When the next edition of the Review is published in June, all these trends are certain to have continued.
“Alas, as sure as night follows day, wherever renewable sources of electricity penetrate a grid to any meaningful extent, skyrocketing prices and electricity shortages are sure to follow. No country—not even Australia—holds veto power over the laws of physics. In June of 2022, the country’s National Electricity Market (NEM) seized up, and spot trading in wholesale electricity was suspended for nine days. Unprecedented intervention from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) was required to stabilize the situation: [etc.]”
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/power-down-blunder
Jo, the full article is behind a paywall; if you like I can email you a copy of the whole article.
00
Hmm, controlled demolition, now where have I heard that before…
The high priests of Hokum,
in the state of Ignoramustan,
hath spoken.
Shall I bring gifts of candles and boxes of matches when I visit in a couple of weeks? And maybe a head-torch or two, with extra AA batteries, just in case…
200
The lunacy of this situation is that the government, egged on by the climate alarmist community, have literally forced people to take up the massive volumes of subsidised rooftop solar to avoid paying the prohibitive costs of their government mandated “green energy” grid, causing the problem we now face. And people are still adding more and more governmnet subsidised solar, even as we speak, to avoid the ever spiraling energy prices. We all know the grid will collapse, we just don’t know the exact time and date, but it’s getting closer.
450
The lunacy of this situation is that the government, egged on by the virus alarmist community, have literally forced people to take up the massive volumes of subsidised injections by government mandate, causing the problem we now face. And people are still adding more and more governmnet subsidised injectons to avoid paying the prohibitive costs of catching a cold, even as we speak, to avoid the ever spiraling excess deaths. We all know the population will collapse, we just don’t know the exact time and date, but it’s getting closer.
Oh wait… right story, wrong page! All these identical Govt things…
30
In the ABC article I posted yesterday (embedded in a tweet) they made some stunning admissions. One subheading was “the physics problem”. These are the people who tell us they trust “The Science”. Shame they don’t know any.
310
As I mentioned in an earlier comment, the power industry certainly saw it coming. But AEMO, etc are simpatico with the ideologues in the parliament houses and the lobby groups. They aren’t interested in listening to the cautions of those who actually know how the electricity network works.
401
This latest power debacle is clearly just a microcosm of how our country has been and is managed.
240
So, at midday, to save the grid from its managers, we the public need to go put a roast in the oven, put the washing on, iron all your clothes, vacuum the house and the car, vacuum the pool etc.
Do we have the technology, yes we do.
180
AND while you are doing all your domestics you can spare a thought for your roof solar panels that the power company you are paying, at an ever increasing price, for the electricity to do your chores has turned off so that they don’t have to take it or pay you. The exact same electricity that you, as a community minded person, set up because they told you it would go some way to saving the world.
The same community mindedness that expected you to roll up your sleeve to protect your community even if it made YOU sick. But, as we all know, the negative claims were all just mis/dis information. Weren’t they?
200
Bear in mind it’s the festive season, so people could be asked to turn on their front yard Christmas displays during the day. The more lights and moving parts the better. And perhaps if they have old lights in the garage with globes, they could switch them with the more energy economic LEDs.
Up until these times, turning on the power to one’s Christmas display during daylight hours would have seemed utterly pointless. Soon it could become a community service.
50
Meh! Just mandate that all electric vehicles can only be charged for fours hours around midday and that’s it. Leave the Tesla Teals to sort it out.
30
“The amazing thing is that an institution with fifteen years of grid management didn’t see this coming fifteen years ago.” – Jo Nova, 2024.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair, 1934.
90 years of progress!
460
Just build an entirely new network based on DC. From scratch.
But why not pump the water uphill in Snowy II with all that extra free energy?
Nothing in this new Chinese view of the future for Australia seems to work, except that we are told to keep our coal in the ground for when they run out.
210
A DC grid won’t solve the issues, and it would bankrupt the nation.
LVDC has high resistive losses and requires massive cabling. You’d have to restring the entire grid.
HVDC is about USD 1 M / kV and requires a minimum of 2 and max of 5 substations. Approaching 2.5 Billion USD.
110
Money’s no problem. Just borrow more.
130
I doubt if we need worry in the UK about solar panels causing our national grid to collapse. We probably don’t get enough sun for that to be much of a risk. Wind farms are another matter and if the British government carries on its mad pursuit of Net Zero it is difficult to see how the national grid can continue to function as it ought to.
110
Just after I posted the comment above about British wind farms I came across this article at the Daily Sceptic website.
Cost of Switching Off U.K. Wind Farms on Windy Days Hits “Absurd” £1 Billion
https://dailysceptic.org/2024/12/02/cost-of-switching-off-u-k-wind-farms-on-windy-days-hits-absurd-1-billion/
I wondeer if “free energy” from the wind will bankrupt the British economy? Ed Miliband will certainly go down in history.
240
Full steam ahead with the big corporate multinationals installing solar factories on good agricultural land. Their feed in tariffs appear to be untouchable. The plebs with panels on their roofs are now cannon fodder when ideology meets engineering reality.
220
No solar panels on my joint.
I have a question though regarding the voltage spikes.
Could these voltage spikes be high enough to damage my fridge, freezer, computer etc.?
If true, who will pay for repairs/replacement of my equipment?
150
Bad choice of emotive terms there.
It wouldn’t be a “spike” at all but rather a voltage increase to a steady state.
A “spike” *should* be handled well by most modern electronics in any case, but if you wanted a reason to buy a UPS…
Or buy a power logger/harmonic analyser, so you have proof of voltage-anomaly caused damage.
71
Back when I had solar on my old house my controller kept a record of extra voltage. Thus a record of 270V (and my neighbour had a record of 275V from earlier model controller).
This explained why sometimes my solar wasn’t generating on nice sunny days. We figured out that the supplier let the voltage go up until the panel controller shut down for an hour or so,
The road had a predominance of solar installations and was the second circuit in the town and likely to have blackouts when most of the town didn’t.
20
Spikes. They’re everywhere.
It’s an auto immune issue.
Have a heart.
00
Educating the dumb folk:
https://va.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_snn67hpxvp1uo7oqq.mp4
90
Why are the ONLY alternatives to oil, gas, coal, peat, wood are Chinese made Windmills and Solar Panels? And the Chinese are now past 40% of all fossil fuel use.
130
While peat in Australia is a non starter, you could buy a Chinese made wood burner, a chainsaw and an axe. That wood improve your fossil fuel consumption come winter . .
20
Good one, he really paid out on ‘unreliables’.
21
Sorry, fat finger. Ignore the red.
10
cross posted at ClimateGates
40
I recommend that anyone with solar panels buy a LiFePO battery big enough to run their fridge 24/7 with a dedicated fridge circuit. You don’t need to spend a fortune on a micro grid (~1kW) but it might be worth looking at a 3kW system as the future is bleak until we build some small gas-fired units outside cities and a pipeline from the north. Pretty soon we’re going to see another coal unit break-down and then the grid will be permanently unstable to the point of scheduled regional power outages. That’s sort-of okay in winter but in summer your food will warm up. They will also be routinely charging you for your solar contribution to the grid as well as the AEMO routinely reaching into your Smart Meter and blocking your roof-top electron generator in much the same way that they tweak big coal units from the central control desk of the East Coast grid.
Adapt or suffer.
70
John,
The economics of being able to go off grid haven’t stacked up because until now blackouts have not been lengthy and frequent and are an inconvenience only . If you lose the contents of your fridge and freezer , and can’t get replacements that’s serious . The drive to electrify houses will exacerbate the issue – no lights, no cooking , no hot water or washing of clothes and no cold storage . Having solar without off grid capability makes it a white elephant as you cannot use it to power your house even when its generating if the grid goes down .We have been warned…
50
Forget the short-lived battery – get a reliable generator and a store of fuel to run it……
80
Doesnt have to be either/or thinking. Their is no reason why the battery needs to be short lived, that’s just your mind set.
We are in the process of setting up to have both and see them as complementary. The generator (for as long as fuel lasts) and the battery for running overnight fridges and lights and getting some sleep. The battery can be charged with excess gen power and/or solar during the day.
32
I run a 3.5kW petrol unit to periodically cool down a freezer and a couple of fridges. At the same time I run a standard CTEK 12volt battery charger. I reckon I’m making fairly good use of the generator’s capacity and the charged battery runs a small 12V fridge. Most days the single solar panel recharges the battery by 10:00.
Houses in much of rural Aus requires a water pump so I have a 7000 litre tank on a 4m stand. It gives me several weeks of water supply but normally I top it up one night a week, using off-peak, to maintain the head of pressure.
I advise all my clients to have at least the criticals of their houses run on a separate ‘behind the meter’ micro-grid which remains powered-up irrespective of outside influences because the powers-that-be seem intent on undermining the general population but even a generator input socket at the meter-board is useful.
50
We are basically doing much of the same thing. I have chosen to go down ” the solar generator” route to complement our 3.6kVA generator.
Roughly in line with what you are advising people, with an input plug at the switchboard and a grid/gen changeover switch.
We arent looking to invest in off grid at this house as we probably only have 5-10 years here at our life stage.
10
But how much fuel to store? https://michaelwest.com.au/fuel-security-what-happens-if-the-bowsers-start-to-run-dry/
00
But WHY should we be forced to suffer? The stated AEMO power reliability is 99.998%, so why is the AEMO allowing energy sources that cannot meet this reliability to connect to the grid?
I’m not going to buy an expensive short-lived battery that I’ll never pay off during its short lifetime. Nor do I want to run the risk of the battery taking out my entire residence.
If I have to deal with regular blackouts in the future, I’ll buy a genset, and stuff the neighbourhood serenity.
100
I have a small brick generator shed so it is not too intrusive. LiFePO4 batteries are quick to accept a charge and not prone to fire issues and can be run down to 10% without adverse effect.
We shouldn’t have to suffer and should be paying more like 15¢/unit but millions are clueless about power grids and atmospheric physics.
50
It had to happen with so much solar hitting the grid and it’s precarious condition due to the destruction our coal fired Power Stations. The people with solar will be furious . .
90
Not really. My export returns are now only 3c/kWh, so if they are turned off, that’s not a problem.
10
“The AEMO surely knew that without a Sea-of-Galilee type miracle in battery storage, the whole nation could not run on lunchtime generators.”
Sea-of-Galilee type miracles seem to be a common feature of these “Green Energy” schemes. In New York state in the US, they have a name for this miracle, DEFR (Dispatchable Emissions-Free Resources). They have no idea how to create one, but they know they really need them to make their scheme work.
120
The so called “renewable” acolytes always have the perfect technology developing, imminent, just around the corner. The seem to think the here and now can be supported by wishful thinking. What is really imminent is finding out if that is true.
140
When running an R&D/engineering section, had to put up with lots of folks who said that they have this marvellous idea, all that had to happen was to put it into production. Yeah, sure…
70
No mention of daylight savings in this discussion. When daylight savings kicks in, sunset happens an hour later, so maximum heat and maximum sunshine should also happen an hour later. Therefore if all maximum rooftop solar electricity, occurs at midday, when daylight savings kicks in, maximum sunlight occurs at 1pm and maximum electricity generated should also to 1pm. Perhaps daylight savings should be extended to two hours.
40
Just use UTC like the airline schedulers.
Though I suppose the idea of brekkie at 0100 (0900 WA time) might offend some.
00
AEMO are already trying to walk back on this statement on LinkedIn but then on their page repeat that they do need the ability to curtail solar output, as Chris Ullman said in his doco, these people don’t know what they’re doing!
LinkedIn- “AEMO is supporting the continued uptake of rooftop solar. We’re doing this by contributing to new market designs, trials and research, which will continue through the National CER Roadmap.
Please note that AEMO has not asked for emergency powers to turn off rooftop solar, as mistakenly reported in the media today.”
AEMO Website-
Quote: “AEMO does not want to directly control people’s rooftop solar.
In rare circumstances AEMO may need to take action to secure the grid, such as directing off grid-scale generation, to solve these emergency events which often occur at the same time as unplanned generation and transmission outages.
However, after all these actions have been exhausted, the temporary management of rooftop solar by network operators under state government solar management programs may still be required although we expect this may only occur in very rare circumstances.”
http://https://aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/minimum-operational-demand” rel=”nofollow ugc”
60
OK, AEMO does not want to control roof top power , except for those times when it does. Got it.
160
Early on-“Average speed cameras will only ever be used for heavy vehicles.”
Later- “Cops starting average speed cameras for cars”
10
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/solar-power-can-t-provide-stability-to-australia-s-energy-system/ar-AA1v9hJl?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=257d09af770
20
What you are seeing is the result of Politicians mandating a solution without listening to the Electrical Power Engineers.
The “Original Grid and Generation” was designed to provide electricity from generating plant to consumer in a single direction, with no generators of the secondary distribution bus, always flowing toward a lower voltage.
Your “New Grid and Generation” has “distributed generators”, ie. Wind and Solar, backfeeding the distribution bus and causing voltages downstream to be higher than upstream. This presents a huge stability and control problem.
An “old grid” can tolerate some 15% of distributed load side generation ( W/S), and maybe up to about 30% of grid capacity as an upper limit. But go beyond that, and lots of strange things happen.
Add to this, that there are a variety of inverter based distributed generators (W/S) out there. Some have fixed reactive power capability, some have variable capability, some can be remotely controlled, and some not. All of them want to deliver power into the grid. Fine if all the power is consumed on the secondary distribution system because it is local. But once they start back feeding into the primary distribution or secondary transmission portions of the grid, it creates havoc at the thermal generating plants. You’ve got 10,000 ants trying to randomly overpower the elephants.
I can provide some links to various articles on the control system issues and opinions on answers, and would be pleased to do so, but all of them have their own slant on the technology. Suffice to say they all believe it can be solved, with “enough” programming, controllers, internet connectivity, money, testing, etc. But what that means is that any glitch in the internet means the entire grid crashes because the control systems are so delicately balanced they can’t survive any interruption.
Your ‘old grid’ did very well, for over a century, without all of this gilding. You can have reliability, stability, cost effectiveness, OR, you can have unreliability, instability and increasing costs by trying to overcomplicate what works with what is theoretically possible but as yet unproven.
190
Definitely another feature of the “old” electricity supply grid was the requirement of providing the cheapest power possible. This seemed to be a politically neutral, aspirational aim in order for Australia to become self sufficient and encourage a bigger population. Somewhere, sometime that goal was discarded. Was it the politicians or was it the bureaucrats? We tend to blame the politicians in the Lib/Lab football game equivalent, but for me it’s more likely the past and present public servants who’ve put us on this cray path. But, I suppose that’s why we have the lies being supported by GENCOST etc, that intermittents ( solar: wind ) are the cheapest form of generation.
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Not true. To prove that point you would need to offer evidence of a number of professional engineering groups coming out strongly against this “transition” experiment. As far as I can see they are as happy as any to get paid to do counterproductive work.
The key player in setting Australia down this path was Alan Finkel an Electrical Engineer.
I know engineers who work or have worked in power stations and they just give a sideways smile when the subject comes up.
Net Zero is great for engineering. It provides pointless employment for thousands of those still needing work. Why shouldn’t they ride the gravy train?
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You are confusing Engineering Management with actual, working, engineers.
Of course the working engineers keep their heads down. They’ve got lives to live. Martyrdom isn’t in the job description.
“I know engineers who work or have worked in power stations and they just give a sideways smile when the subject comes up.”. And I know Pollies, Managers, Investment Firms, Consultants, Experts, Academia, who ALL will SWEAR to ANYTHING they are paid enough to “Prove”.
What YOU need to prove is that the Pollies and Mouthpieces are ACTUAL engineers, Chartered, Responsible, and Liable.
Cynicism solves and provides nothing, except amusement for the cynic.
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No I don’t. I can only think of one engineer in the Australian parliament. But he is not an Electrical Power Engineer.
You made an insupportable assertion that politicians were not listening to Electrical Power Engineers. To prove that point, you need to provide evidence of a profession body for Electrical Power Engineers making a firm statement condemning the “transition”. Politicians cannot listen to anything that remains unstated.
I have not seen any professional engineering body publicly condemn the “transition”.. I agree that the engineers keep their heads down and say nothing in public for fear of losing their job. They are as happy as anyone to take good money to do pointless work. The transition has made pointless work a core function in Australia.
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Weekly I drive past a large wind turbine facility install near Rokewood in Victoria. This project has been going on for at least 2 years and possibly another year to go. When you think about it, it’s an engineers wet dream!! Huge pre-constructed steel structures that need to be transported and installed on site. Large base pods with 100’s of tonnes of concrete and steel. Access roads that were constructed pre- install. Sub- stations and powerlines. Big delivery trucks, huge cranes , lots of work utes, trucks of all types. Big blokey stuff and they’re probably all getting paid a fortune and possibly all belong to a union and paying in superannuation to an industry fund. One day I might summon up the courage and ask some workers if they’re in a union- they buy their lunch at the local shop.
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True. Why would any engineer want this fantasy to stop?
I can tell you that working in rural Victoria is more amenable to a pleasant lifestyle than working in a mine in the Pilbara or Bowen Basin.
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“You can have reliability, stability, cost effectiveness, OR, you can have unreliability, instability and increasing costs by trying to overcomplicate what works with what is theoretically possible but as yet unproven.”
Or, as Montgomery Scott once said of the USS Excelsior, “The more they overthink the plumbing, the easier it is to stop up the drain.”
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RE so called climate change…
I suggest to search Extreme Weather events…. and those that also follow this … untruth should find many reports of just that extreme floods, heat, storms etc back centuries 1400, 1500ds?>>
Also on searching Fossils… as the stunning Snowdonia / Wales mountain are also used to be UNDER oceans?? AND what about Tassie that used to be connected to Australia… mainland. yes I realise slightly different than the next fear campaign.
BUT most people still seem to listen AND believe everything that OUR “Peoples Representatives” ?? tell us… WHO are they , what background do they really have.. only the odd MP is NOT a carrier pollie with NO other learned knowledge, few have Engineering back ground that can think outside of the square Thanks to the http://WWW…. there is plenty of truth, imo, of previous HEAT WAVES in the 1800’s in Europe as well as Australia and yes with people falling over and dying…
NO “people caused” climate change…again follow the money and who is / are the beneficiaries? And plenty of thoughts / research of WHY and what the reasons were… guessing that THAT has NOT changed. Just like volcano’s still wake up after years of sleeping… this subject IS fascinating…
Pandani
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I read today a long winded warning about a rain bomb soon to overwhelm (allegedly) nortern Australia and parts of the east coast. In about a 1000 words and lots of red maps they described the summer wet season in the top half. It was ridiculous.
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That’ll be what we used to call ‘the Wet Season’ yeah?
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This is incorrect wording. They do not “deliberately trip” the solar panels. The solar panels go into automatic offloading mode limited by the street voltage reaching 254V. It is a linear, progressive control system similar to the cruise control in a car that regiulates the output of the solar inverter to keep the street voltage at 254V or lower if it requires more than the capacity of the solar system, which then runs at solar limit.
SA Power networks even gave it a name “Enhanced Voltage Management”:
https://www.sapowernetworks.com.au/future-energy/projects-and-trials/enhanced-voltage-management/
You would have to think that other regions are just being slack in spending the money for on-load tap changing transformers. It is just one of the many costs of handling intermittent generation in a network designed for dispatchable power.
My solar system was being limited by the 254V street limit until it got cloudy about 30 minutes ago. Every sunny day in spring and early summer, our street voltage sits at 254V for a few hours.
It is another reason that households will install batteries so they get value from their sunk cost in rooftop solar. The biggest incentive now is to eliminate the connection fee and billing process.
Ultimately, the unreliable and expensive grid will be left to those who cannot afford to leave the grid.
Solar and wind do not offer benefits of scale. And the grid connected intermittent generators are burdened by the high costs of transmission and system frequency stability.
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Umm, no. We cannot give in that easily. We have to vote these idiots out and somehow insist that people be again put in charge of our electrical grids that know what they are doing. I believe that a few blackouts will start to change the public’s mind.
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You can be a zealot and committed to a belief that sanity will eventually prevail or a pragmatists and make the most of what is on offer.
Nothing is going to change for the better in Australia inside 10 years. Even if Dutton gets in with a nuclear power mandate it will be late 2030s before that has an impact.
The only way it will change quickly, say over 5 years, is for someone like Trump coming into power and declaring the whole CO2 induced climate change nonsense a scam. Sell off their ABC. BoM and CSIRO and stop funding academia to do non-productive activities as well as stop the mandated consumer theft through electricity meters
Australia, Canada and UK’s greatest hope is the stark contrast that a Trumpian USA will provide for the woke world of the west.
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Rick, you repeatedly quote that link from SApower describing Enhanced Voltage Management,.. but it seems you have not read it, or are interpereting something different to me.
It is clear (to me at least ) that this “EVM” is designed to REDUCE line voltages to allow more RT solar to access the grid.
It is NOT a voltage increase to restrict or switch off RT solar.
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Chad,
You are only interpreting to what you are thinking.
The voltage changes are being done on a daily basis to get rooftop solar power into the grid. Obviously it can be reversed as required by managing the voltage at their 139 substations to limit the solar input.
It was originally done in SA and WA to prevent instability. You are reading the sales pitch.
The sales pitch has some relevance because it gives most rooftops a fair slice of the market. Before they had that ability, some rooftops were not being controlled by the voltage limit while others were being limited most of the time by the voltage limit.
The distributors have to be monitoring the growth of rooftop solar in areas and balancing the generation so each rooftop is getting reasonable access.
It has been evident to me for some time that the distributors are supportive of rooftops and recognise it gives them greater control over the grid than the large generators. I expect the AEMO command and control move is to give some demand back to the grid scale intermittent because their demand is drying up and will continue to do so until Snowy 2 can soak up some of their output.
There is large political risk associated with pissing off rooftop owners particularly ion it is to enrich owners of grid scale intermittent.
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This is how SA and WA control RT solar in emergencies..
https://www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2021/11/30/wa-introduces-remote-solar-switch-off-following-sa-model/
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This is a recent development – 2022. They instituted the voltage management a few years back and it is still required because only the new solar can be managed directly.
The direct control is an emergency measure used as a “last resort” – their words. The continuously managed voltage control is to give all rooftops fair access. The voltage control is required anyhow.
My concern with “last resort” is that it could be used to reduce roofops to allow grid scale intermittents preferential access to the demand that could be served by rooftops.
If I was a large scale intermittent generator, I would be telling the grid operator (and Blackout) that I will not be installing anymore capacity until they can prove to me that I get at least equal access as rooftops. I do not want to be going to distributors to ask them to regulate the rooftops so I can get some of the demand. I want AEMO to give me my fair slice of the demand.
None of the generators realised that rooftops could be so impactful and would be the dominant lunchtime generating source by 2024. People have a strong desire to control their own destiny. For now, that is partial grid abandonment but it will increasingly be full grid abomndonment.
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But again, the EVM is to enable line voltage to be REDUCED, not increased !
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But again – it works both ways. What they can reduce, they can also increase. They use it as a balancing mechanism to spread the share of the demand across rooftops.
Rooftop owners is SA were awake to the discrepancy years ago because some had little opportinity to feed in. The voltage was always high. So SA Power started working on means to share rooftop access to the demand.
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More digging has thrown up this..
https://youtu.be/bOjXlmabCFM
Which does state that EVM can be used to shut down RT solar inverters .
But then begs the question ,…why have they (SA & WA) insisted on the installation of modified remote control “smart” inverters ?
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There is a dilemma.
It is certain that since Australia is fanatically committed to building more wind, solar and Big Battery plantations that electricity prices will continue to rise. That is an undeniable fact despite Official Government Misinformation that “wind and solar is the cheapest form of electricity production”.
Therefore in order to reduce costs people have to generate their own and that requires solar panels.
In order to prevent your solar panels being disconnected you will have to go completely off-grid with your own batteries.
As RickWill has pointed out, the maximum price of electricity generated by centralised wind, solar and Big Batteries is 66c per kWh. That’s the price you have to beat with your off-grid system.
Of course, as Australian Government policy is also to not have people live in houses but shoebox size apartments, more and more people won’t have roof top space to install panels so they will have to minimise electricity consumption further and will freeze in the dark.
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Again, Pielke jr and Eschenbach tell us we would need to build 1 nuclear plant every single day until 2050 for the world to reach their so called net zero.That’s about 9500 new plants.
And remove FF plants at the same time. DUH?
Anyone not understand their lunacy and impossible mission now?
Today there are about 403 Nuclear plants operating around the world, so SFA to show for the last 70 years. So think about the extra 9500 extra plants required in just the next 25 years.
Anyone not see their problem? Please try to follow Pielke jr for just 10 minutes as he tries to explain the net zero impossibility.
Willis E agrees with him and Pielke also shows how much toxic W & S would be required if we’re stupid enough to keep voting for these imbeciles. See video at about 3 minutes from Roger.
And please think about just 403 operating Nuclear plants today after 70 years. IOW Net Zero is just more of their BS and fra-d.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kbUHzVUCBiI&t=467s
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This is so stupid to be hilarious. One minute some NSW politician is telling everyone not to use their electrical appliances and turn off their AC’s to save the grid. The next minute, AEMO is telling everyone to use as much electricity as possible to save the grid. This is so going to end well. I hope there are enough wind turbines to tie an alarmist politician to each blade after the grid collapses. Keep the fastest spinning blades to Malcolm Turnbull, Greg Hunt and Bruce Bowen.
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It is a time related issue…
Usage restrictions are called for during evening (and morning) peak demand periods when there is no solar generation.
The need to use more electricity is a midday , peak solar, issue when the demand on the grid thermal generators is too low to be stable
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Must be an NSW thing. Werent they telling everyone to turn on their taps to avoid flooding a while ago?
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Sky News is right on the ball
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbxpieEQ7bc
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FWIW. They all have plans. Interesting, but none of them have been applied. You don’t build the airplane whilst flying it.
Prevention of distribution network overvoltage by adaptive droop-based active and reactive power control of PV systems
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0378779615004071?via%3Dihub
A Coordinated Voltage and Reactive Power Control Architecture for Large PV Power Plants
https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/10/2441
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Here Willis Eschenbach tries to also include the fact that we’d need to build 4000 or 8000 wind turbines or 27 or 54 sq miles of solar panels every single day until 2050 to achieve zip. An engineer reminds him that the above toxic W & S numbers would have to be doubled. So perhaps 8000 turbines or 54 sq miles of solar panels every day until 2050.
What a toxic joke and yet Labor, Greens, Teals continue to believe their clueless BS and fra-d.
And the global cost would be about 274 trillion $ according to the latest McKinsey report. Of course SFA difference to climate or temperature.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/01/27/bright-green-impossibilities/
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“And the global cost would be about 274 trillion $ according to the latest McKinsey report. Of course SFA difference to climate or temperature.”
Ahh.
But – some folk will get a warm feeling from this; I gather a baby does too, immediately before its nappy [=diaper] needs changing.
And other will get filthy rich, thanks to their friends in politics.
Not just in Australis, but in the UK, [and probably Germany, too].
In the USA, however it looks likely that the scam may have hit the buffers – following the election of DJT.
Fingers crossed he makes his first week in office count, and that the ‘Dallas scenario’ does not come to pass.
Auto
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So how many missiles or jet fighters or subs or ships etc could the OECD countries build for 100s of trillions of $?
Never forget that their net zero BS and fra-d will quickly make the OECD countries very weak and unable to defend ourselves and yet this seems to me that this is the outcome favoured by the Labor, Greens and Teals loonies.
Yet they could still win in 2025 according to the latest polls.
IOW there are a lot of stupid Aussie voters who have not got a clue.
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We had an election in 2024, here in the UK.
Now, the Useless Tories had been in power for a while – and made a pretty average f’up of the whole caboodle.
So Sir Starmer has been elected with a big [170+] majority in the House of Commons – on the votes of about 20% of those who could vote.
[Perhaps 17% of those who, theoretically could have been eligible for the franchise, I’ve read].
And Sir Starmer is already gerrymandering – I know he calls it ‘modernising the House of Lords’ – by getting rid of the last of the [rather independent-minded] hereditary peers.
Nothing has been said about any further steps, but I assume it’ll simply be anointing his cronies.
Which is how the House of Lords has been filled over the centuries – but with heirs and successors no longer beholden, they have become a little more feisty.
[Presumably a year and a half after announcing a Committee [of his mates] to review and elucidate something or other – Sir Starmer likes that sort of thing, as he has announced some 60-odd of them in the last 5 months – more than two a week!]
So – yes, you may have problems ahead at the next Australian election.
You’re not alone!
Uniparty anyone? It comes in several flavours . . . none very palatable!
Auto
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I am old enough to remember 32V DC systems in “remote’ rural properties. OK for lighting, but not much else. Evaporative cooling towers on the roof, huge sloe combustion stove in the kitchen. This also supplied “spare” heat to the solar water heater. (It’s not always 130 degrees plus, west of the great divide, ya know).
Shearing and milking sheds powered by classic “hit and Miss” engines via shafts and belts.
Kerosene fridges? It is surprising how cold the beer can get in a flame-driven refrigerator.
Those paying attention will have noticed a distinct rise in the “collector” value of such “vintage” equipment. And the almos total absence of people with the skills to keel a lot of it going.
This will not end well. nor is it so intended.
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Bruce, our family had a kerosene fridge in the late 1950s. But we didn’t have a generator for the house. Lighting was via kerosene lamps and mum (God bless her) made cooked food via a combustion stove, which provided wonderful heating in winter, but was awfully hot for her in Summer.
80
And in Russia, Siberia, the fireplace in the cottage was not only the centre of all life, there was a full shelf above it for sleeping. No energy was wasted. It’s what you have to do at -40C.
50
As a family we had kero (paraffin) stoves in army quarters in Egypt. Once, our reliable two-burner stove was replaced by an all-singing, all-dancing three-burner stove. The latter was most unreliable and we had quite a few soot-filled kitchen happenings!
Years later, but again in military quarters, in Cyprus this time, we had a kero water heater we ran every day.
We’ve had Aladdin paraffin stoves too.
30
Kerosene heaters are still easy to get … imported from Japan where they remain popular in rural districts. I have one, and it’s handy for portability and with an extremely simple mechanism that practically can never fail. However, kerosene costs significantly more than diesel these days so all things considered it’s not really a low budget heating option. It is also a little bit smelly, which I believe is the Sulphur often sold with the kerosene.
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Modern diesel heaters (recirculating air + water) are begining to replace gas heaters in caravans and motorhomes.
They are very compact, low cost, and economical to run.
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Anyone wishing to hasten the demise of the grid through rooftops destabilising it can donate to this cause:
https://www.gofundme.com/f/its-a-fun-sun-run-for-solar-citizens
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Back a few days Eng-Ian brought up the core science which is claimed to underpin the Man Made Global Warming drama.
https://www.joannenova.com.au/2024/12/sunday-85/#comment-2816518
Basically the science is that CO2 must equilibrate with the surrounding atmosphere and cannot carry excess heat or energy greater than that allowed by the local environment.
This equilibrium is achieved by conduction, ie atoms bumping into each other and transmitting vibrational until equilibrium is achieved.
This aspect of the global warming claims is well hidden but very important to bring out for discussion.
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Doomberg today on Australian energy:
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/power-down-blunder
An excerpt:
‘Alas, as sure as night follows day, wherever renewable sources of electricity penetrate a grid to any meaningful extent, skyrocketing prices and electricity shortages are sure to follow. No country — not even Australia — holds veto power over the laws of physics.’
Why do our political class want to be seen as ridiculous? Why do they set themselves up as a laughing-stock?
How the rest of the world must snigger!
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Exactly.
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Australia, the dumbest people on earth, enjoy sitting in the dark wondering what happened you morons.🤣🤣🥰
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The irony is also ,who pays for the grid . If 60% of the population dont have solar they subsidise the 40% who do because someone has to pay. Those who live in units and cant put in solar are forced to subsidise those that can. As people who live in flats are more likely to be the poor solar is a reverse Robin Hood. The reality is because of what is happening we are going to get governments subsidies renewables, coal and renewables again to create behaviours that will keep the lights on. What the current situation is like is that it is pouring water into a bucket during the day thats already full and overflowing then turning the tap off when the bucket empties out late afternoon and early evening.
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