JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Beaver County SWAT team had no communication at all with Secret Service – had separate Command Centre
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXMkDmV-TfA&ab_channel=ABCNews
110
There is quite a lot there so thanks CO2.
The controversy about Crooks long trousers is resolved. The is a shot of him walking in front of the AGR building which can be enlarged. Crooks is wearing knee length pale shorts which are similar in colour to his legs.
Beaver team are either first on the roof or pretty early on.
They ascend by a ladder near the front door of the adjacent building. One of them says, “there is a ladder right here”. The ladder was seen on one of the drone shots released previously, so it was probably already there and may have been used by Crooks also.
40
Beaver County counter sniper going off shift:
“Roger that”
That “someone” was Crooks in all probability.
From,
Trump countersnipers’ chilling text messages before assassination attempt reveal how gunman was one step ahead of Secret Service and local law enforcement
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13682279/Trump-countersnipers-chilling-text-messages-assassination-attempt-gunman-one-step.html
30
Asks more questions than it answers.
These guys just admitted they were in the 2nd floor of the 2 storey building behind. A building with a clear view of where the body was found and apparently easy roof top access to walk from a door onto the roof behind and step across the adjoining passage way roof to where the body was.
The Reporter claims the police have models of the site. Let us see them and how they explain who was shot and from where.
This appears to be a ‘Limited Hang Out’, a staged reinforcement of the original narrative that there was one shooter, from one position, one ladder and just a misunderstanding for which they are deeply sorry.
We know this is not the case. Does not explain the position of the items on the roof, who shot the dead person (in shorts and a tee shirt) on the roof now that it is clear it could not have been a heavy supersonic round from a sniper that killed him.
How did the other guys already running around get on the roof before the body cam arrives?
80
The windows on the south side of the building did not have a clear view of the adjacent roof where Crooks’ was killed. The windows are narrow and the window frame quite deep.
An observer would likely need to have their feet above floor level to get their head out the window to observe the east end of the adjacent roof.
20
Leo >The windows on the south side of the building did not have a clear view of the adjacent roof where Crooks’ was killed.
Perfect view IMO.
CO2 Guy brought up a “Command Centre” suggestion yesterday @ #10.1:
CO2 Guy:
My reply(s) (with corrections):
10
That is a view of the window not from the window.
Images that I have seen, show a narrow outward opening casement window with side hinge- perhaps 40cm wide by about 80cm high. The wall thickness is not clear but likely around 30 cm. Floor to window opening about 120 cm.
00
>That is a view of the window not from the window.
Eli Crane also provided still photos FROM the window, including down to the NW corner shoeing an air conditioner unit (apart from the wall).
00
I’ll tell you what! When we invent a time machine I’ll go back and shoot Crookes just before he fires a shot! Then we can re-read all the newspapers and see who’s plan went seriously wrong. Who fired at Trump, who was running around looking on the roof, who shot the dead body twice…
20
Jason & John talking about the windows and the recent video with the Horse.
Personally I would not have used a window. From the movies my understanding is you position yourself inside the door with your weapons ready, do the one, two, three with your fingers than burst through the door. From there you stand on the roof behind the shooter and yell “Police! Drop the weapon!!!”
10
Door in Wall of second storey of building opens onto roof at 0:21 secs and 0:57 secs. At 0:07 secs we can see the roof access from the rear roof. Behind Michelle, the officer with the orange gloves.
Without knowing the layout of the building I would believe this is a direct access from the Police location along the roof and a walk across to where the body lies.
I haven’t finished John Cullen’s new tangent he has gone off on. He appears to be exploring the idea that the snipers on Trump’s backstage left took out the bloke on the roof with silenced sub sonic rounds before the shots at Trump. He also has matter flying from the top of the roof if anyone is looking for splatter. At the same time the bloke commenting on the video announces he saw the bits fly off. I have trouble with the source of the shot as the path of that mass is towards the Water Tower. I don’t believe that could be from a shot from the snipers with the hats.
He appears to have found a bullet flying towards the building under the body from the direction of those snipers.
10
Cost of Living Crisis in Australia – Will there be an early election before it gets worse?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13683901/US-burger-chain-Carls-Jr-collapses-Australia-shutting-dozens-stores.html
Also many craft brewers are going bust
https://www.smh.com.au/goodfood/eating-out/trouble-brews-in-australia-s-craft-beer-industry-with-alarming-rate-of-closures-20240229-p5f8wg.html
200
There are NO Brains in the Labor/Greens/TEAL Federal & State MP’s
who cannot understand that Labor State Government Increases in Land Tax, which under Commercial Leases, Land Tax Increases are responsibility of Lessee – eg my NSW Land Tax has gone up 35% over last 3 years – this years increase 13.4% – as I understand Labor Victorian Land Tax Increases are really horrific
If Businesses have had my House and Contents Insurance Increases, 34.8% 2023, 29.1% 2024, Gas Increase 2024 35% (on top of a large increase in 2023), Electricity on TOD Off Peak 50% Increase 2024, on top of large increases last year, besides RBA Mortgage Increases
No Wonder Australian Businesses are going broke, and with the Labor Federal & State Governments Spendathons for Re-election, no wonder RBA Bullock will further increase Interest Rates in August sending Australia down the Drain
100
PS my land tax is residential and hidden from Tenants – only went with 6.4% increase to Tenants, as Rents have reached a level where Tenants can’t pay – well below my Cost Increases, hence my vacating end of next year – It is not worth it
80
Today’s UK Telegraph Cartoon sums up Australian Labor/Green/TEALS Federal & State Governemnts perfectly as well!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/telegraph-cartoons-july-2024/
30
Spot on cartoon. All Labor supported unions are trying to send the rest of us broke.
10
Craft brewers deserve to fail – it’s just beer but the price is outrageous.
50
Harsh but but but FAIR. The local crafters sell in small stubbies that are carefully designed to approximate the size of main stream stuff, at an inflated price. Quite honestly I have tasted better home brew than some of the designer stuff.
Personal taste of course but my beer drinking generally does not include an analysis of “imported malted barley” or “unique floral hops”. Its generally a cold refreshing quaff with good company, not a swirl and spit experience!
80
Don’t have Carl’s Jr out my way and I don’t care.
Greg’s Kitchen, for one, on uselesstube reviews offerings from “burger joints” regularly, complete with digital scales and measuring tape.😆
Small, badly put together, visually unappealing, often poor tasting and always overpriced. That’s the whole industry.
More and more people can’t even afford takouts.
30
I know things are tough but using these as an indicator is a bit like how the ABC seems to like interviewing people from leafy inner suburbs about social welfare issues (fuel is expensive I guess)
Carls Jr is the classic US one size fits all, it works in the US so it must work here (Starbucks?) It was true at one time but they are decades late in the game and in slow economic times.
“Craft” brewers? meh. Many leapt on the band wagon (that and Gin). The early players , that some still see as craft where bought out by the majors and the rest struggle producing an expensive, optional, easily replaced product in a downturn. Seems a lot like market rationlization.
50
“Seems a lot like market rationlization.”
Yep! Needs to happen occasionally, and nothing is worse for society than some stupid Govt propping up those companies that should go under. It separates the ants from the grasshoppers.
10
Al Gore loved the Climate Reduction act for funding his world wide scam. And backs Harris for her support as a Climate Champion.
I have to say it’s working. Melbourne is freezing. Everyone agrees it is the coldest winter in a lifetime, but then I am sure the BOM will find an average which disagrees and cooling is part of rapid warming. That’s their job/funding. The British MET did an amazing job turning a very cool Spring into the hottest May in history, with unusually warm nights from the Scottish highlands because of cloud cover, the other greenhouse gas. Water.
At least with the very expensive defeat of Global Warming in Victoria we have very good snow falls to 400 metres. And we are getting good value for money for blowing up working power stations so we can lower the price of electricity and cool the place. But we really need to be blowing up power stations in China, not Australia don’t we? I can’t follow all the Climate Science. It all seems wrong but I am sure these specially trained Climate Scientists are experts, much smarter than other scientists.
360
Last Sunday was Earth’s hottest day since records began.
143
It is called emerging from the little ice age, a very good thing and all natural. Your “hottest” is ridiculous rhetoric. It might be 1.5 degrees warmer than 150 years ago. Nothing hot about it.
341
Even though the data is mostly invalid:
How old is the earth?
How long is recorded history?
What proportion of recorded history do we have accurate temperature records for?
And as Tony Heller has pointed out, even in the era of accurate temperature records, the only places which really had them were the USA, Canada, Australia and NZ. Most of the rest of the world were represented by just one or zero recording stations. The rest of the data is mostly made up.
And back to the “hottest day”. You really think 0.01C is significant in the noise?
350
I meant to say Europe as well. Western Europe also had accurate temperature records apart from North America and Aus/NZ.
90
Samuel Pepys was given a thermometer by the first president of the Royal society in 1659 and was one of 100 people who took instruction in how to use it.
110
2024-1659 =365 years.
It’s all but a couple of thousand years since the start of the Roman Warm Period, and about 8,000 – more than twenty times as long – since the Holocene Climactic Optimum, IIRC.
So a small – even insignificant – part of the time since even the last [full] Ice Age has had thermometers [even primitive ones].
Even if the Diarist was an accurate and assiduous recorder, that was only one point [possibly in London, certainly in the ‘Little Ice Age’ – piss froze in Pepys’ chamber pot in winter, indoors! It is warmer here nowadays!].
And we should overthrow our civilisation – based on that!?
Auto – assuming one of our ‘friends’ really wants to learn.
00
David >Even though the data is mostly invalid
The latest ERA data is NOT sourced from homogenized adjusted datasets – it is sourced from raw AWS data by telemetry in near real-time.
However, Simon’s “since records began” begins 1940 in ERA5.
Until only recently ERA5 began in the satellite era 1979.
They, Copernicus, have since cobbled old weather station data to form a 1940 -1978 dataset to which they concatenate 1979+ satellite era data.
Obviously those are disparate datasets and it shows at the join. There’s a discernible step change at 1979.
It’s the attribution of the record that’s the issue in my opinion. Made the comment below that there was No record in the NH on the “hottest day”.
Spike was the result of a SSW event over Antarctica.
140
>since records began.
NIWA discards pre 1908 weather records in NZ even though they go back to the late 1800s. That was a warm period as even their early 1900s series shows i.e. warm-cool-warm.
Same with BOM pre 1910.
Jo has posts on the late 1800s data in Australia. Warm then too.
140
Simon >Last Sunday was Earth’s hottest day since records began.
What was the driver of the spike?
No record in the NH. NH record was last year 2023 at 22.71.
But there was a massive SSW-sourced spike in the SH:
ERA5 – SH
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=sh
SSW was above Antarctica, hence the spike:
ERA5 – Antarctica
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=antarctic
But hey, go ahead, make it about man-made climate change.
90
That would be the Copernicus satellite record dating from 1979?
40
Tony >That would be the Copernicus satellite record dating from 1979?
No, 1940.
See explanation upthread at #4.1.2.2.
1979-Present dataset concatenated recently to a 1940-1978 dataset.
Step change in the resulting series at 1979.
20
According to NASA:
“Satellites don’t directly measure temperature or the surface where people live. Instead, they measure the brightness of Earth’s atmosphere. Scientists then use computer models to convert this brightness data into temperature information.
To make matters more challenging, scientists gather brightness data from more than 16 different satellites. Think of it like receiving a box of puzzle pieces without a picture to guide you on how to complete the puzzle. Experts face a similar puzzle-solving task as they work with data from satellites that were launched in different decades since 1978. They must figure out how all these pieces fit together to create a coherent picture of Earth’s temperature.
Satellites measure the brightness of Earth’s atmosphere at various altitudes. For instance, they capture data from the layer of air closest to where people live, roughly the height where birds and airplanes fly. Scientists then combine and analyze these measurements, extending to about 23,000 feet (approximately 7,000 meters) in the atmosphere.
In summary, while satellites provide valuable information about Earth’s temperature, ground thermometers are considered more reliable because they directly measure the temperature where people reside. Satellite data require complex processing and modeling to convert brightness measurements into temperature readings, making ground thermometers a more direct and accurate source of temperature information for us.”
NASA clearly state that satellite temperatures are not actually that accurate and we all know “computer models”.
141
Bronco >NASA clearly state that satellite temperatures are not actually that accurate and we all know “computer models”.
The term I used was “satellite era” – NOT satellite temperatures.
At surface REANALYSIS datasets, like ERA5, pull in any and all AWS weather station data by telemetry.
Surface temperature in ERA5, GFS, JRA, MERRA, etc then, is NOT determined by satellites.
Yes REANALYSIS creates an instantaneous model, same as all the TV weather forecasts on nightly news all over the world, but each time the model is stepped forward in time (4 times a day GFS) it is constrained (anchored) by each observational datapoint of which there are thousands on the surface of the earth.
22
Then why bother with expensive, inaccurate satellite readings at all, when we have perfectly functioning thermometers?
A bit like like the battery car conundrum.
50
Gary >Then why bother with … satellite readings at all…?
Thermometers at surface for surface temperature.
Satellites and weather balloons in troposphere for troposphere temperature both measured and derived.
Result – REANALYSIS models of the entire troposphere from surface to upper trop.
But each instantaneous “model” is only a snapshot of the troposphere at a specific time. GFS is updated 4 times a day and a 7 day forecast run ahead from the latest observations.
Keep the Initialization data and you have an observation time series – called REANALYSIS.
I say “models” because there are many to choose from – 15 at WRIT.
At present ERA5 is considered the best of the bunch even by those on the non-CO2 side like Ryan Maue.
11
>there are many [Reanalysis datasets] to choose from – 15 at WRIT [see Link].
4 of those Reanalysis datasets compared to IPCC CMIP5 climate models (near surface):
4 Reanalysis datasets vs CMIP5 models
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/97/6/full-bams-d-14-00154.1-f1.jpg
ERA-Interim
NASA MERRA
NCEP/CFSR
JRA-55
1) Not a good look for the CMIP5 climate models.
2) But the Reanalysis replicate each other.
1) Is science, 2) is NOT science.
00
Mercury rising up a tube is not temperature either. It is a response to temperature that is calibrated and then little tick marks are put on the tube to represent the temperature ESTIMATE.
Satellite measurements are just as valid if the calibration is done correctly.
19
You seem to be implying that mercury thermometers are inaccurate and you should know better given your lab background.
Satellite and electronic measurement systems are FAR MORE precise and accurate than fluid and mechanical types.
10
Where did I say they were inaccurate? If they are made well and regularly checked, error reported etc then they are great. As for the second sentence, not sure why you are blustering that to me.
01
Wow, that really kicked off. The point is, if you want to compare today’s temperatures fairly with those of past decades, surely you need to use the exact same instruments. This to avoid any fudging, homogenising, estimating, averaging, modelling and most importantly, lying.
30
Gary, why? The exact same instruments need regular checks and recalibration – nothing reads the same if left alone, so even the same instrument is not the same.
As for the things you want to avoid, apart from the pejorative fudging and lying, all those other things are how almost very reading is made on every instrument since science began.
10
Yeah, thanks Gee. I agree that instrumentation should be checked and recalibrated, as I am sure was done on a regular basis in previous times. what I have a problem with is the responsible (sic) authorities changing to a completely different set of recording instruments and methodologies and then altering or even deleting the older, perfectly valid, records rendering comparison impossible. Leads to fudging and lying.
As you say, nothing stays the same. Especially the ever changing natural climate of the earth.
30
One example of deleting? One example of fudging? One example of lying?
Disregarding or not including data in analyses is not deleting and is a perfectly normal thing to do.
00
Spoilt for choice really, but on fudging – UK Met declaring May 2024 warmest on record, later revealing that higher than normal overnight temps in some Scottish highland areas raised the ‘average’. Every person in the U.K. knew they were cold and wet, including me, as I was in England for the entire month of May. Luckily, I packed a coat. Indeed there is a very old Lincolnshire saying – ‘Ne’er cast a clout (coat) ’til May is out.’
Deleting – Phil Jones Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, via email; ‘If they ever hear there is a Freedom of Information Act now in the U.K., I think I’ll delete the file rather than send to anyone.’ (Climategate)
Lying – Any statement which has ever included an allusion to ‘dangerous human induced climate change’, ‘existential threats’, etc.
By the way, I do not have a scientific background, rather, I have operated a landscape/horticultural business for the last three and a half decades, creating things, employing and training people and teaching at trade college and university levels.
I operate in the real natural world, unlike the climate academics and can assure you, the planet will be just fine.
Cheers, from beside my wood fire up in the cold Dandenong Ranges.
10
Most ground based thermometers this century actually measure voltage and current through a resistance coupling to infer a temperature. It is quite a different process to expansion of a liquid in a thick walled glass tube where the relative expansion of the liquid to the glass is used to infer a temperature. So the measurement process has changed significantly in the last 4 decades and is one of the contributors to so called Global Warming™.
Earths temperature is thermostatically limited by the temperature limits of ocean water. The surface temperature of ocean water does not go below -1.7C or sustain above 30C. Theyse are hard limits mostly controlled by the properties of water and the mass of the atmosphere.
Ait thermometers are useful to inform you if the outdoor temperature is going to be in a comfortable range or outside the comfortable range. Basically to know how you should dress if going outdoors.
The unscientific notion that air temperature is a useful indicator of climate trends is an unstable foundation for analyisis. The proof of this will not be in my lifetime or anyone currently alive but in 400 years when the permafrost is advancing south again it will have meaning.
Lccal climate will be altered significantly by the proliferation of wind turbines stilling the air and solar farms desertifying the land they sit above. These are the most significant factors in man-made climate change. Neither will stop the next cycle of glaciation.
100
Rubbish. The records are in the old trees and the rocks. They speak the truth about hotter weather.
40
Says who ?
10
If you really want to see hot, go to Melbourne 1968
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=122&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=1968&p_c=-1481717705&p_stn_num=86071
and select days above 30C
50
‘Last Sunday was Earth’s hottest day since records began.’
Thanks for turning up Simon, you are good value. I’m sticking with the Hunga Tonga Hunga eruption theory on climate change, unprecedented in recorded history.
70
Today is simultaneously both the hottest and coldest day since yesterday. A statistical conundrum?
60
That is only weather.
00
Terrifying.
Change civilisations!
Immediately!
Auto
00
A recent paper shows that the temperature spike has nothing to do with CO2 or a modest El Nino and everything to do with water vapour in the stratosphere. BoM reckons this Austral winter is going to be warmer than average, but it doesn’t feel like it.
‘The simulations show that the SWV anomalies lead to strong and persistent warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses in boreal winter, and austral winter cooling over Australia, years after eruption, demonstrating that large SWV forcing can have surface impacts on a decadal timescale.
‘We also emphasize that the surface response to SWV anomalies is more complex than simple warming due to greenhouse forcing and is influenced by factors such as regional circulation patterns and cloud feedbacks.’ (Martin Tucker 2024)
00
Thanks for one good laugh today Simon!
With our stoves going and the sun now finally out after some pretty dismal days.
40
Annie,
London has – at last – got a warm summer’s day – about 28C [Gatwick Concrete Haven is ’30C’, Kenley – old Battle of Britain ‘drome – is 29].
We’ve had a fairly wet, cloudy summer so far, – so, of course, there is a Weather Warning:
‘You might see the Sun. Do not fall over with shock’ – or words to that effect.
I expect it’ll be very roughly the 27th ‘Hottest Day of the Year’ so far [I don’t count them!], and I expect Thursday will be the 18th wettest day of the year [in some places!] – yes, we have a weather warning for ‘heavy rain’.
Honestly.
In England.
And there may be thunder!
It is possible that those over 30 have seen all this before.
30 months, that is.
Auto
00
Simon.
Here is a chart of the central england temperature which goes back to mid 1600’s. The chart includes CO2 emissions for the period. It seems CO2 emissions aren’t working.
https://x.com/EcoSenseNow/status/1684569534085349379
30
That is a lovely chart! If that was shown in every school & on every TV we wouldn’t have half the problems we have these days.
10
“If that was shown in every school & on every TV we wouldn’t have half the problems we have these days.”
And the chances of that are much, much less than CO2 having any appreciable effect on the temperature of our planet [rather than following temperatures, as an effect, not a cause].
Can you imagine the BBC allowing that?
Or ABC, CBC, NBC etc.?
Or the tech bros who want to be trillionaires on our backs?
Auto
00
Sure, it was calculated to be 0.01 degree Celsius above the previous calculated global average surface air temperature anomaly which is not a measure of the global average surface air temperature.
The Anomaly is a not a real Earth temperature.
The uncertainty in that comparison of 1-day modelled maxima is about 1 degree Celsius for a difference of 0.01 degree Celsius.
According to preliminary data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service:-
10
Leo
>it was calculated to be 0.01 degree Celsius above the previous calculated global average surface air temperature anomaly which is not a measure of the global average surface air temperature.
>The Anomaly is a not a real Earth temperature.
No, not anomaly – absolute.
See your Copernicus reference:
That record has since been eclipsed (17.15 23rd) but point is it is absolute.
See ERA5World here:
ERA5 World – Absolute
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
And here:
Climate Pulse – ERA5 Absolute/Anomaly
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/
17.15 Absolute 23rd July 2024 (Record)
+0.90 Anomaly 23rd July 2024 (NOT a record)
Anomaly was +1.1 back in February 8th 2024.
+0.78 latest 28th July 2024.
In other words, the Antarctic spike has passed peak and now it’s downhill.
ERA5: Antarctic – Absolute
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=antarctic
10
Yes, my bad assumption.
The calculation is a composite- modelled and measured 1 hour satellite temperature by grid area, altitude-interpolated to notional 2 metre altitude.
The modelled component would, I expect, use standard anomalies, but the result is not an average of location anomalies offset by a notional reference baseline.
Any idea of the uncertainty?
00
Leo >The modelled component would, I expect, use standard anomalies
No. Where are you getting that from?
Measurement is in absolute terms
Modelling is in absolute terms.
Initial time series are in absolute terms (e.g. latitudinally).
Once a time series is established a nominal baseline is aggregated and averaged (20 or 30 yrs).
Copernicus Climate Pulse ERA5 page baseline is 1991-2020.
Climate Reanalyzer ERA5 provides 2 baselines – 1991-2020 and 1979-2000.
Once the baseline is established in absolute terms (by aggregation and averaging **), the absolute baseline is subtracted from the absolute datapoints.
Voila! Anomalies from the absolute baseline.
So you can go from absolute to anomaly but you CANNOT go from anomaly to absolute – that path is lost in aggregation and averaging process (** above).
>the result is not an average of location anomalies offset by a notional reference baseline.
Opposite way around as above. Baseline is an aggregate and average of a nominal period of absolute data (30yrs, 30, and 20 above).
Baseline is then subtracted from the absolute datapoints – residual is the anomaly, either plus (+) or minus (-).
10
Just from consideration of the large grid size (for land 3080 sq km) and the altitude variation that may involve.
00
Copernicus FAQs:
What are anomalies?
The term anomaly refers to the difference between the absolute value of a variable (e.g. temperature) on a given day, month, or year and a long-term average for the same day, same month of the year or for the year as a whole. Here, as in other C3S climate reports, this long-term average corresponds to the average for the 30-year period 1991–2020, the modern standard reference period used by the World Meteorological Organization. For daily data, the 30-year climatology is smoothed using a lowpass filter to remove sub-monthly variability.
https://pulse.climate.copernicus.eu/
10
>Any idea of the uncertainty?
ERA5: uncertainty estimation
https://confluence.ecmwf.int/display/CKB/ERA5%3A+uncertainty+estimation
(3) How do I obtain the uncertainty estimate data based on the ERA5 EDA system?
Uncertainty estimates are available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS), as part of the ERA5 dataset, and there as ‘Product type’ = ‘Ensemble mean’ and ‘Ensemble spread’.
(6) How reliable is the ERA5 uncertainty estimate?
The reliability of the ensemble system can be measured using spread-skill (reliability) diagnostics. This measure describes how the spread of the ensemble can match the skill of the system. In the optimal case the ensemble spread should fully match the model skill, so the reliability diagram would be a diagonal line. The reliability of the EDA system is different for different variables, levels and reanalysis time periods. Generally speaking, it can be said that the EDA system is rather reliable (though generally under-dispersive, i.e. the spread is lower than the skill) and possesses information about the uncertainty of ERA5. A typical example of reliability diagnostics for surface pressure for the spring season for various reanalysis periods can be seen here:
https://confluence.ecmwf.int/download/attachments/111158117/spread_skill_ERA5_OBSMAM_MANLANDSYN_5Lfinal.png?version=1&modificationDate=1530286170804&api=v2
10
The Antarctic temperature spike on June 1 must have been caused by something, I’ll have a closer look.
10
Something to do with SSW.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-07-27/nsw-antarctica-warming-over-50c/104142332
10
Volcano blew up down there and nobody noticed…
00
impressive that the day is claimed hottest (against heavily adjusted records) for what is really a fly speck on Earths timeline. Not sure whether to yawn or be easily impressed.
20
yarpos >impressive that the day is claimed hottest (against heavily adjusted records)
Nope. Reanalysis data (e.g. ERA5 record) is raw station data, unhomogenized (no need) and unadjusted (no need).
So we have an alternative product to check against the unhomogenized and unadjusted datasets – HadCRUT6, GISTEMP, NCEI, BEST, ACORN-SAT, NZ 7SS, etc.
Reanalysis reveals those datasets as bogus. Not so much in recent times where there’s less opportunity to “adjust”, but back further where the “adjustments really kick in.
Easy to see comparing Monthly ERA5 Australia to BOM ACORN-SAT Australia for example.
10
you must be getting nervous Simon. It could all collapse soon
00
Not where I live. Top temp of 11C, 4C below long term average.
00
Then there’s the difference between the temperature as reported by organisations such as the BOM and recorded in long term records and the apparent temperature (also known as “feels like” temperature) also recorded but it disappears after a couple of days. Today the apparent temperature where I live, at least at the airfield about 12 Klms north, is about 2C lower than the temperature that goes into long term records, and there is a breeze at around 6kph. With higher wind speeds the difference is also higher. In other words the real temperature in which we live is affected by other climate factors such as wind.
30
‘Melbourne is freezing. Everyone agrees it is the coldest winter in a lifetime, but then I am sure the BOM will find an average which disagrees and cooling is part of rapid warming. ‘
According to the BoM, Melbourne’s mean temp is 0.5C ABOVE average for July, mainly due to a high average min temp.
They turn cold into warm just like that.
50
Re: Separation, Crooks – Rifle
This has not been resolved anywhere to my knowledge. I don’t expect it ever will be but I’m interested in possibilities because I think it is one of the weirdest mysteries in this saga.
Media and models were quick to place Crooks final position just about anywhere on the building roof including at the extreme West end due to confusion caused by photographic foreshortening. That was the silliest placement I think I saw.
The first responders placed a red cone next to Crooks body in his final position. There’s videos/gifs showing that cone from the rally side of the building. However, that is NOT necessarily Crooks shooting position. It may have been but I don’t think so.
As a start, I suggest a set of assumptions and nomenclature to address this. These are by no means fixed i.e. they are just a means to develop thinking (but hopefully not group-think).
Scenario SRT = STRAIGHT (referring to Bag-Rifle in ‘Lane’). Pos.# = Position #.
Assumptions: Scenario SRT,
A) Crooks moved from Bag/Pos.1 to Rifle/Pos.2.
B) Rifle/Pos.2 was Crooks firing position.
C) Crooks moved from Rifle/Pos.2 to Body/Pos.3.
Alternative Scenarios (e.g. OFFSET = OFS, referring to Body offset from Bag/Rifle ‘Lane’) will have different assumptions and nomenclature obviously.
Questions that arise from Scenario SRT:
1) Why did Crooks move TOWARDS the ESU snipers?
Ok, artifact of Assumption C) but why?
This suggests either he did NOT have an escape/retreat plan; was spooked by something; or had a death wish and just presented himself prone to ESU (think Surrender and Voluntary tackles in Rugby League) by why in that pose/alignment?
2) Why did Crooks stay up near the ridge and NOT retreat DOWN to the edge/gutter adjacent Link Canopy? i.e. best escape route.
Again, suggests he didn’t have an escape plan. Alternatively (Scenario OFS) he was shot in shooting position but that doesn’t explain the rifle position.
3) Why were BOTH Rifle AND Body aligned in the respective ‘Lanes’ but separated?
Does not make sense either under this Scenario SRT Assumption or an alternative (OFS) where Crooks throws the Rifle to the West side (why would he even do that?).
If the Rifle was thrown it would not have ended up in perfect alignment. Similarly Crooks got no advantage whatsoever in his final position in respect to escape and ESU. He should have scarpered down to the Link Canopy then jumped to ground.
Suggestions early on that the First Responders moved the rifle but that’s disturbing a crime scene. Plus he was dead – no more shooting from him. But Ok, a possibility.
And not forgetting that cartridge ejection has to be accounted for i.e. speed/angle/height/bounce in respect to where the cartridges ended up..
# # #
That separation defies rational explanation to my mind so I’d like to see the views of others.
20
The Separation questions above are one step forward from yesterday Monday #2 Index and #2.6 Topic
Topic at #2.6 was:
Re: Crooks position(s) on roof
In other words, the background for today’s Separation questions has already been developed and agreed at #2.6 and below yesterday (given no disagreement posted).
10
This video has emerged.
There are clearly 8 shots.
There are 3 aimed shots, quick 2nd and 3rd, a bit difficult for accuracy at 100+ for that type of rifle.
Then 5 very quick, way too quick for accuracy (without extensive ninja training), shortly after.
Then 1 counter sniper neutralization.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ja9wfBCmEkPR
50
>This video has emerged.
The Dave Stewart ‘Snipers Nest’ video.
Just to give it an identity.
10
First observation – there was no-one up the Water Tower.
That is, no second shooter on the Water Tower.
20
It has been released that the anti sniper team had eyes on Crookes 90 mins before the nearly fatal shot.
10
Perfect views of the East end of the building @ 0:57, 1:10, 1:28 but no Crooks from that angle.
Cops pointing at position though.
Crooks rifle was 20-21 ft from East end and body 26-27 ft from East end, using roofing ‘Lane’s.
Hard to discern whether cops pointing at 20-21 or 26-27.
00
Richard. What are you suggesting?
10
Tony >What are you suggesting?
Crooks NOT visible in that video (that I can see).
Cops pointing to a location in the vicinity of rifle 20-21 ft from East end AND body 26-27 ft from East end.
In other words, not possible (for me) from that video to say EXACTLY where Crooks made his shots – at Rifle position, or at Body position.
00
One thing I observe … just recreationally.
The police SUV arrive, clearly an alarm went out some period before the vid begins, as the police appear to be looking frantically at the rooftop.
This threat was not conveyed to Secret Service as they seem to only respond after the shots and Trump ducks .
(Funny, the 78 year old former Prez seems to have the fastest reflexes and presence of mind on the stage.)
After having seen almost all the James Bond movies, that level of incompetence from the highly trained, well funded Federal ninjutsu is disappointing.
170
Five casings were originally found on the “sloping roof” 10 minutes after these shots where heard then 3 additional casing were added before ABC TV crew arrived 30 minutes later.
This means that the patsy, Crookes, was the second shooter, with the first three fired by someone else from a similar direction (not the water tower).
30
Forensic analysis of those cases should show up if any were fired from a different rifle – e.g.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forensic_firearm_examination
00
>The Dave Stewart ‘Snipers Nest’ video.
Here:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Ja9wfBCmEkPR
Background from Sunday/Today:
****************************
PP – Let’s Label the Roof ‘Lanes’
16 ‘lanes’ to rifle (20-21 ft)
Another 4 ‘Lanes’ to Body (5-6 ft)
26 ft to Body from end of roof.
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/07/sunday-67/#comment-2785497
Perfect views of the East end of the building @ 0:57, 1:10, 1:28 but no Crooks from that angle.
Cops pointing at position though.
Crooks rifle was 20-21 ft from East end and body 26-27 ft from East end, using roofing ‘Lane’s.
Hard to discern whether cops pointing at 20-21 or 26-27.
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/07/tuesday-68/#comment-2786000
Crooks NOT visible in that video (that I can see).
Cops pointing to a location in the vicinity of rifle 20-21 ft from East end AND body 26-27 ft from East end.
In other words, not possible (for me) from that video to say EXACTLY where Crooks made his shots – at Rifle position, or at Body position.
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/07/tuesday-68/#comment-2786021
# # #
TGP article with clip showing Crooks (supposedly) from Dave Stewart ‘Snipers Nest’ video – next.
00
NEW VIDEO [Dave Stewart ‘Snipers Nest’] of Trump Assassination Attempt Shows Cop With Weapon Drawn Outside AGR Building Two Minutes Before Shooting
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/07/new-video-trump-assassination-attempt-shows-cop-weapon/
Ok, with video stopped @ 4:54 with the building in frame from East-end to 3 wall spaces past the window in “where the drain pipe and window on the exterior wall are located” there is what looks like a tree behind the building (how far away?) to the left of the window but also what looks like a Rifle & Scope.
Perhaps it is my imagination but I think that is what is being referred to and it does need intense scrutiny I think (might be a tree though).
I get roughly 16 1/2 ft from East-end of building to West-end of window. And 21 1/2 ft from East-end of building to Rifle/Pos.2 (previous tag yesterday) from Grassley update video.
Make of that what you will.
00
TGP article:
Screen image from video by Dayve Stewart taken at President Trump’s Butler, PA rally possibly shows gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks on roof below the word “rally”, July 13, 2024.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/trump-butler-rally-possible-crooks-on-roof-453-time-stamp-screen-image-dayve-stewart-youtube-taken-07132024-1024×768.jpg
That’s too far towards the West to be Crooks.
Besides, looks nothing like either Crooks or a Rifle/Scope.
Not where cops were pointing. That was to the East as per my comment previous.
I don’t think this is the location referred to in “Some viewers think they can see Crooks at 4:53”.
00
TGP – This video synched Stewart’s video with video of Trump speaking at the rally at the time of the shooting to provide context.
Here,
NEW Footage Trump Rally Shooting! – Gray Hughes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OGjGyuQKts
@ 4.07 cops pointing at 2nd window from East-end (same location as identified in previous comments above). But NOT the location in “Screen image from video”previous.
@ 5:39 after “3 Controlled shots at trumps head” a cop looking up at the window 2nd from East-end (or maybe just North of that).
Again, same location as upthread but again, NOT the location in “Screen image from video”previous.
00
>what looks like a Rifle & Scope
>looks nothing like either Crooks or a Rifle/Scope
No, Rifle & M/BUS sights – see #4.3.1.1 below.
00
Followed after a time by a 10th shot.
The ninth had a different sound from the first eight and the 10th a different sound from each of the preceding shots.
First 8 rounds were very similar when recorded from this position, but the microphone recording at the stage gave a the first 3 a different sound from the next series.
Also no obvious acoustic N-wave from this position. It will be interesting to examine the audio recording to confirm this.
It is as if all 8 initial rounds were fired from near ground level, so the ground proximity suppressed the pressure wave close to the source. If so, Crooks was not the shooter.
Raises questions:
Did Crooks abandon his weapon when he became aware that police on the ground had guns drawn and were circling the building to get a shot?
If Crooks had moved away from his AR-15 and was killed by the 9th round, how could he have been shooter?
10
Viewing Chris Martenson’s analysis of the audio from the Stewart video, shows that round 1 had a distinct N-wave which was not present for round 8.
The N-wave is generated by the pressure wave of the supersonic projectile in flight.
It can be likened to nested cones following immediately behind the projectile. The leading edge of the pressure wave corresponds to the surface of the outer cone (positive pressure pulse), the intermediate zone (linearly reducing pressure), inner cone (transient overshooting and returning to baseline). Duration of primary N-wave at the observer is about 0.2 sec.
The discrepancy deserves an explanation.
It suggests that some factor dissipated the round eight N-wave.
The most likely explanation is that round 1 passes the recording point well above ground level but round 8 is closer to the ground as it passes.
10
Sounds like more coming –
“Bongino Claims That Trump Assassination Bombshells Are Coming Soon”
https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/07/29/bongino-these-trump-assassination-bombshells-are-coming-soon-n4931153
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And
“FBI Updates Media on Trump’s Would-Be Assassin Thomas Crooks and Motives”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/07/fbi-updates-media-thomas-crooks-trump-rally-shooter/
00
>FBI Updates
And STILL they don’t say where, specifically.
First Responder Cops found a ladder around the 3 tall trees at the end of the ally between buildings (or somewhere near there).
Probably an AGR Facility ladder, the Blue one seen first in aerials.
00
Rifle,
DPMS – DR-15 / Rifles
https://dpmsinc.com/ar-15/complete-guns/rifles.html
Great – 7 models.
Now to determine which model, exactly. Given the sights, barrel extension, stock (M4), comparison with Grassly video @ 0:11, it can only be this:
DPMS DR-15 16″ M4 5.56 NATO 13.5″ M-Lok Handguard MOE Rifle w/ MBUS Sights, Black
https://dpmsinc.com/dpms-ar-15-16-m4-5-56-nato-1-7-phosphate-rifle-with-13-5-m-lok-rail-black.html
3rd photo on right side is what we need to look for in Rally-side videos. That’s this aspect:
DPMS DR-15 W/MBUS sights looking towards barrel end
https://dpmsinc.com/media/catalog/product/cache/8051380e16adac48b300ae07ccfc5f88/d/p/dp51655109560_3.png
10
It’s a reasonable assumption that he was spooked by the appearance of that police officer at the east end of the building and wanted to avoid being shot when he returned to the roof gutter.
He may have thought he could avoid being shot by the counter-snipers (on the barns) by keeping low enough (say 15cm vertically below the level of roof ridge).
I doubt that he intended to escape.
10
Leo, I’ve brought forward your last comment yesterday, Monday, downthread @ #5.5.
>It’s a reasonable assumption that he was spooked by the appearance of that police officer at the east end of the building and wanted to avoid being shot when he returned to the roof gutter.
Yes, he knew that route was closed.
See #5.5 for MUCH more on this.
>He may have thought he could avoid being shot by the counter-snipers (on the barns)
Again, see #5.5 on that.
>I doubt that he intended to escape.
That’s what I was thinking too but I offered an alternative explanation to that at #5.5.
00
>1) Why did Crooks move TOWARDS the ESU snipers?
From Yesterday Monday #2.7.1:
Leo G asks:,
I would add – and closer to ESU counter snipers in 2nd story.
Leo’s Answer:
Good thinking Leo.
As I understand, the challenge was BEFORE he began shooting. So he would know that escape route – the East-end Link Canopy (the same he gained access(?)) – was now closed to him i.e. he could NOT go back down there.
But he could go down at the West-end Link Canopy. Does not explain why Crooks stayed up near the ridge though.
I ask, in the thread header:
Me – 2) Why did Crooks stay up near the ridge and NOT retreat DOWN to the edge/gutter adjacent Link Canopy? i.e. best escape route.
Leo – [Because] “the police officer could fire on him if he moved directly back to the roof gutter close to the building’s eastern end”.
But he could retreat to the gutter/Link Canopy at the East-end (but he didn’t).
I’m wondering whether he was about to go over the ridge and down to the “mechanical equipment and piping” (FBI’s Wray) on the Southern side of the building in full view of everyone.
A moments hesitation near the ridge was all that was needed for ESU on 2nd floor.
10
>But he could retreat to the gutter/Link Canopy at the East-end (but he didn’t).
Should be,
But he could retreat to the gutter/Link Canopy at the [West]-end (but he didn’t).
00
>Does not make sense either under this Scenario SRT Assumption or an alternative (OFS) where Crooks throws the Rifle to the West side (why would he even do that?).
Should be,
Does not make sense either under this Scenario SRT Assumption or an alternative (OFS) where Crooks throws the Rifle to the [East] side (why would he even do that?).
My proof reader had the day off today, apparently.
00
that may be a new record for responses to self
00
Nah, done better.
00
Stream of consciousness blogging 🙂
10
Perhaps because he was dead.
40
One of the first reports that afternoon said a sniper shot the rifle away, so they stopped shooting the body.
00
An earlier discussion and if you read down it becomes unreal, in whatever way you take that.
https://joannenova.com.au/2023/02/monday-open-thread-30/#comment-2635032
Prompted by this response
Steve Keppel-Jones
July 30, 2024 at 3:24 am · Reply
I see that Jo doesn’t seem to be interested in defending any of her fake physics terms or claims, such as spectrometers measuring energy instead of power, or “net heat”, or “radiation is a net flow”. She seems convinced that she is correct (and therefore the rest of us must be wrong) despite obviously never having studied physics in any formal way. A classic Dunning-Kruger case.
11
KK >Re photons.
I think the first distinction to be made before any discussion can commence is:
1) What Category of EM radiation is being referred to?
Is it Infrared in the Solar spectrum (IR-A/B) or Infrared in the Terrestrial spectrum (IR-C).
Infrared – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrared
Electromagnetic Spectrum – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_spectrum
This is a critical distinction given the Energy-Per-Photon (see Class Table at EM reference).
Only then can discussion proceed as to directions of photon rays; penetration of surface materials; effective radiation altitude; etc.
There’s 3 simple orders of magnitude difference between Solar and Terrestrial Energy-Per-Photon i.e. heating effects, or lack of, are vastly different.
Terrestrial IR radiation isn’t the primary energy transfer at lower altitude anyway, collisions are. And collisions don’t require molecules to be radiative absorbers/emitters.
I like where you are going KK – upper troposphere radiation to space (I think). Just so long as everyone is talking in same terms.
21
When you say;
“Terrestrial IR radiation isn’t the primary energy transfer at lower altitude ” that may certainly be the case, but I haven’t bothered to distinguish between conduction and radiation from the ground.
By 30 metres agl it’s all equilibrated.
Powerful UV from the Sun and ground origin PW_IR back up after turnaround.
The UNIPCCCs concept of CO2 driven global Warming is scientifically untenable.
10
KK >The UNIPCCCs concept of CO2 driven global Warming is scientifically untenable.
But their Social Science is rock solid.
I keep pushing the ONE unassailable question for CO2-Centric Climatistas:
Why doesn’t Downwelling Longwave Infrared Radiation (DLR) energize PVs at night?
I’ve had minor victories in the Climate Wars with that question, where for example, a High School Physics teacher was stumped and conceded.
He was firmly on the ideological side until that.
Pushed it here before but needs to be said again – there’s 440 W.m2 DLR at Darwin 24/7.
“Free” energy like solar but why isn’t DLR harnessed?
70
>Steve Keppel-Jones
I looked him up – led to this WUWT post:
The Surface Energy Budget
Guest post by Wim Röst
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/09/15/the-surface-energy-budget/
Conclusions
>”Energy can only effectively be radiated into space from higher altitudes”
Effective Radiation Altitude
https://www.explainingclimatechange.ca/lesson3/3_5_3.html
20
Can anyone explain why the soil temperature is not used to prove warming trend. That would help to avoid some measurement errors, often mentioned on this blog.
Please note – I said trend, maybe it will be cooling trend.
60
Vladimir >Can anyone explain why the soil temperature is not used to prove warming trend.
There are long sub-soil temperature series in Europe if you search hard.
Low frequency data much like SST. Shows the annual sine wave for that hemisphere (opposite phase in SH).
But there’s just not enough granular resolution to detect long-term change.
And that’s the thing. Have you noticed that the “hottest day” record does NOT occur in Anomaly data?
Climate scientists and the IPCC are fixated on anomalies. ALL their graphs are in anomaly terms.
But take look at the GFS Anomaly (similar dataset to “hottest day” ERA5):
GFS 2m-T Anomaly
http://karstenhaustein.com/climate
“Hottest day” record was late July but the anomaly is certainly no record at +0.9 from that baseline 1981-2010.
Click the graph back to 2023 – +1.3.
Back to 2015 and 2015 – +1.0.
So for “hottest day” records the Climatistas had to throw anomalies and datasets like GISTEMP, HadCRUT6, and BEST under a bus.
They discovered REANALYSIS datasets (e.g. ER5) are MUCH better for communication of “record” but notice the record only occurs in middle of NH summer.
NH summer is the ideal time for them to extract a sensational record. Not possible in the middle of SH summer.
Consider this:
17.15 July 23 2024 World (Peak NH summer) “Hottest Day”
22.53 July 23 2024 NH
11.81 July 23 2024 SH
12.90 Jan 13 2024 World (peak SH summer)
10
>the Climatistas had to throw anomalies and datasets like GISTEMP, HadCRUT6, and BEST under a bus.
But that’s a good thing.
They’re junk anyway.
10
Thanks Richard,
What do you think of a compromise: a temperature sensor within BOM shelter fitted with a standard (1 kg?) metal “ballast” ?
Again, I am only talking about recording measured, not calculated, trend.
10
Vladimir
I think the Resistance Temperature Detector (RTD) in standard AWS weather stations is perfectly adequate.
Problem is when BOM say, set a lower “limit” on data collection like they did recently somewhere near the Snowy Alps (Mt Hotham?) so that a record MIN just ends up at the pre-set lower limit.
Then they are prone to publishing the sharp fluctuations in RTD data instead of the standard WMO average over time. I would link to the WMO standard but “Not found”:
WMO GUIDE TO METEOROLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS AND METHODS OF OBSERVATION
https://community.wmo.int/en/activity-areas/imop/cimo-guide
Next problem is going from Liquid in Glass (LIG) to RTD.
First is low frequency, second is high frequency.
Not a problem now that most(?) AWS is RTD.
In short, the measurement technology is fine, the manipulation of data from it is not.
Just my opinion of course.
20
You don’t need high resolution to detect a long term trend.
30
Tel >You don’t need high resolution to detect a long term trend.
Have you seen any examples of the long-term European sub-soil temperature time series?
It’s a mission finding the long-term data, “over 70.000 time series from more than 80 countries across the globe” in this database:
The SoilTemp database
https://www.soiltempproject.com/the-soiltemp-database/
But here’s a short one in the meantime from 1956 – 2004:
Halesowen Soil Temperature 1956-2004
http://www.halesowenweather.co.uk/NEW_HW19.gif
The linear trends are entirely misleading. Nothing happened until 1988. That’s just one of 70,000 but not much different to air temperature.
Shorter,
2015 – 2018 Pittstown (USA I think)
https://www.njweather.org/sites/default/files/styles/extra-large/public/field/image/Fig3.png
Shorter still,
Earth Temperature Depth Chart [Somewhere]
https://www.revimage.org/earth-temperature-depth-chart/
Soil Temp compared to air temp and moving averages
https://i3.wp.com/www.homeintheearth.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/SoilTem_MovingAverages_Jan12.jpg?strip=all
That’s what I’m getting at. The soil temp is highly modulated compared to air temp. The amplitude of the cycle is far less.
I suppose that could also be considered an advantage of soil over air.
There’s much better long-term HQ soil series in Europe but can’t find it off-hand – I’ll keep looking.
00
>There’s much better long-term HQ soil series in Europe but can’t find it off-hand – I’ll keep looking.
Found it.
Bore holes was what I had in mind:
Ground temperature history in central Europe from borehole temperature data
Christoph Clauser and Jean-Claude Mareschal (1994) [PDF download]
https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/121/3/805/814088
Summary
Ground temperature histories (GTH) are inferred from temperature measurements in several boreholes of south-eastern Germany and western Bohemia (Czech Republic). The GTHs that can be extracted from these boreholes, ranging in depth between 150 and 700 m, cover the past 250 yr. Both data sets were inverted separately and yield consistent GTHs. They were also inverted jointly to yield a regional GTH of the past 250 yr for this part of Europe. The results indicate two main episodes in the mean ground temperature with (1) a cooling period from 1750–1800 to 1930–1950, followed by (2) short colder and warmer periods until now. The same trends are found in the meteorological records at four nearby weather stations (Bayreuth, Jena, München and Praha), but the meteorological record in Berlin is clearly distinct. The GTH for this part of Europe is also markedly different from one obtained in central France. These differences are consistent with the spatial variability of climatic trends.
See:
Figure 5. 5 yr means of air temperature in Praha, Berlin, Jena, Munchen and Bayreuth (top to bottom) and inverted GTHs for the Oberpfalz (a), West Bohemia (b) and the combined data sets (c).
# # #
The data is much better than I remember having seen it years ago (maybe couple of decades). So I have to concede to Tel I think.
20
@ Richard C, et al…
Apologies for beating the same point to death…
Not a problem now that most(?) AWS is RTD – must be correct generally and today. But :
a) Are we sure that slightly different model/brand will not replace a traditional PT100, affecting its speed ?
b) The electronic componentry (amps, converters…) replacement can affect speed.
c) Software ! ! ! Do not laugh please – I just discovered that my old Samsung, wakes up every night without any visual indication and checks for the software updates.
Being a XXies century man I long for instrumentation as stable as Baalbek Verandah, at least as Paris Etalon of 1 kg.
10
Vladimir >sensor speed/software
Yes, all manner of ways to go wrong technically irrespective of the govt agency running the data collection (I think that’s the biggest problem of all).
Remember too that surface RTD sensor data is transmitted by telemetry to satellites; then back down to earth to a repository (GDAS); then uplifted by whatever Reanalysis Team to their database (DBMS); they format the data to their DBMS requirements and standards; whatever form the data is then in is the observational basis for their model; their model is then created.
The model, in addition to the observation data, joins up all the datapoints thereby creating data that does not exist in the first place. It is however, constrained by the observational data.
GDAS – Global Data Acquisition System is a massive data collection exercise. I don’t think the average Joe, of either stripe, in Climate discussions appreciates just how massive it is. I’ve tried to communicate that previously here at JoNova but no luck because no-one, apart from me (I think), knows what Reanalysis is in the first place.
I think that lack of knowledge is why the ERA5 data is dismissed out of hand in my opinion.
00
There probably are some long term records in some research station. Is there a standard for placement of thermometers like a buried Stevenson Screen?
Like the the tree ring data soil temp could be affected by a bear deciding to relieve itself on your test area.
30
I recall reasonably solid studies by petroleum companies whereby product temperature inside buried tanks was compared over weeks(?) or months(?).
There was a concern that Depots were receiving “cold” petrol but selling “warm”, ie – greater volume at the same mass and so pocketing the difference.
Proven to be a false rumour.
10
No mention of how much incoming energy is captured via photosynthesis into the green leaves of plants.
The omitted assumption seems to be zero, which is wrong.
30
Link to important discussion of the core of the UNIPCCCs lifeblood.
Richard and Steve on heat transfer
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/07/sunday-was-0-01-degree-hotter-than-last-year-and-1-or-2-degrees-cooler-than-what-cavemen-lived-through-so-what/#comment-2784555
20
KK – that’s the deleted Sub-Thread. I can see it and I can see Steve’s comment at #1.4.1.2.
Key part was this (I think):
Except, how does Steve measure energy at TOA where there is so few molecules it is impossible to use a thermometer?
Temperature spikes (1000 degrees) in the Thermosphere from CME events are derived from satellite drag – not thermometers or spectrometers. That’s if there’s satellites available there.
Satellites, from what I can gather, normally orbit in the Exosphere:
Layers of the Atmosphere
https://www.noaa.gov/jetstream/atmosphere/layers-of-atmosphere
Exosphere
Impossible to use a thermometer there – first you have to catch your molecule before it escapes.
30
“Except, how does Steve measure energy at TOA”
I suspect that Steve was trying to get us to look at the system and be accurate in deciding what to measure.
00
KK >that’s the deleted Sub-Thread
Anyone that made a comment in that thread, like I did, will still be able to see the thread, like I still can.
No-one else can see it hough.
10
Thanks, I was made aware of that possibility a few months ago but couldn’t confirm it.
So, this is starting to feel like living in North Korea.
Anything said out of place will be hidden and the saider delegitimized and modulated.
I thought moderation was to stop legal action that might arise from defamatory comments about those high in public life. Instead it’s used to control real science discussions and make sure that the UNIPCCC is able to continue saving the planet.
30
KK >Anything said out of place will be hidden
That Sub-Tread was deemed Off-Topic and Thread Hijacking so I don’t think we can really complain.
I do note there are other wildly off-topic comments let through but that particular Sub-Thread sparked a moderation blitz because of some prior friction/contention from what I can gather.
Thing is, we can still see it and discuss it in Open Threads like here so nothing really lost.
Nothing like Skeptical Science that used to delete, reconstruct, and rearrange threads. I had to keep a copy of every comment URL just to see what the original thread looked like in the Blog database.
10
If you stop making up your own physics you might have an easier time.
06
Gee Aye >If you stop making up your own physics
What physics did we “make up”, specifically?
10
I was specifically addressing KK
00
I’m not alone on this
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/07/sunday-was-0-01-degree-hotter-than-last-year-and-1-or-2-degrees-cooler-than-what-cavemen-lived-through-so-what/#comment-2784606
One “agreeer” was a university lecturer who was fully versed on atmospheric physics.
I’m now wondering if the others have had there comments modulated and hidden .
To listen to opposition comments their concept of CO2 being able to “downwell” energy to the surface and by some miracle not get out of equilibrium with the surrounding atmospheric gases is ridiculous.
There is no continuous supply of energy being fed to the poor misunderstood CO2 molecules. Co2 doesn’t heat the atmosphere.
But then we have 3,000 comments. from years ago who would disagree.
10
Wow. A university lecturer. I actually wish I knew a few less of them than I do but none of them agree with you.
01
We all exist in a single electromagnetic field in this universe. Power transfers through radiation waves by the interchange of electrical and magnetic energy in this field. The power transfer is unidirectional in space at any point in time. Always from lhigh temperature to low temperature.
Earth’s energy balance is a function of thermostatic limits on ocean water temperature.
I have a very good example of the temperature limit working to regulate the thermalised radiation from the Sun in the form of a lalitudinal plot of changes in reflected solar radiation and outgoing long wave radiation during the CERES era:
https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/image-105.png?ssl=1
.
Overall the reflected is down by 2.4W/m^2 while the OLR is up by 1.3W/m^2. The net gain of 1.1W/m^2 is obviously due to more solar radiation and/or less cloud because more radiation is being thermalised on average. However there is a reversal of the trends just north of the equator. It has clearly increased cloud. The consequence of that extra cloud is less sunlight being thermalised and less OLR to space because the radiation temperature of clouds is low. Over all longitudes where there is more cloud, the ratio of increased SWR and reduced OLR is close to one. But if you just look at warm pools regulating at 30C you will find the ratio of increased SWR to reduced OLR is two so a very powerful negative feedback.
The process limiting the temperature is convective instability and the temperature limit is set by the properties of water and the total atmospheric mass. The only way to alter the regulating temperature is to increase the atmospheric mass because the properties of water are not going to change any time soon.
My recent work has been on the gravitational field that all matter exists in. The deepest hole in the gravitational field on the solar system is the barycentre. What I have discovered is that when the motions of the planets about the sun were calculated, all the object were treated as point masses; meaning they have infinite density. This approximation works well for planets and the position of the centre of mass of the sun but it eliminates the possibility of the gravitational field applying spinning torque to the sun and planets.
Analyising the sun with by giving it actually dimensions has given great insight into what caused sunspots and higher solar activity. This work is yet to be published on the web but I have a PDF version here:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNiRSvZb1f5fjvACJg?e=dSmcbL
It explains why there have been climate optimums and cool periods through recorded history. All before the wild speculation that CO2 was the temperature control knob.
40
>the properties of water are not going to change any time soon
Also water is the planet’s greatest heat sink by far. The observed energy rise in the atmosphere is negligible in comparison.
Even the IPCC alludes to that and here in NZ a couple of IPCC climate scientists went up and down the country proclaiming 93% of the observed energy increase is in the ocean.
IPCC Breakdown:
93% Ocean
6% Land, Lakes, Rivers, Ice
1% Atmosphere
So the action, and (miss)attribution, is in the ocean.
Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing
Nir J. Shaviv (2008)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2007JA012989
Abstract
00
This demonstrates a flawed understanding of how oceans work. And I have a chart that disproves this concept because all the ocean heat is being retained in the region of the Ferrel cells and dominantly in the Southern Hemisphere.
https://i0.wp.com/wattsupwiththat.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/image-91.png?ssl=1
Note that where the extra heat is being is in net heat loss regions. That means the ocean heat increase in those regions is through increased precipitation or reduced evaporation. It is the result of the upwelling due to evaporation slowing down and/or the downwelling from net precipitation over evaporation causing downwelling currents.
Anyone who thinks ocean heat content at 2000m can get in from the surface in a matter of months, years or decades has no understanding of thermal fluxes.
The only region of the oceans that show significant immediate response to TSI changes is near the Equator. Temperature changes in higher latitudes is a function of changing evaporation or precipitation, which are long trend process and reflect decades of energy accumulation or loss.
The Sun is near the peak of the current climate optimum very similar to the solar conditions during the Roman Warm Period:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/07/25/claim-global-warming-is-messing-with-our-rainfall/
30
True of other places as well. The race to bigness creates big risk.
Virginia’s risk of offshore wind turbine blade failure is serious
By David Wojick
https://www.cfact.org/2024/07/29/virginias-risk-of-offshore-wind-turbine-blade-failure-is-serious/
The beginning: “On July 26 CFACT’s President Craig Rucker sent Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin a letter warning him about the serious risk of blade failure in the giant offshore wind facility being built off Virginia. The warning builds on the recent blade failure off of Nantucket which has littered the beaches with fiberglass fragments. Virginia is also at risk. In this article I present some technical background on that risk. The facility will be one of the world’s biggest with 176 enormous turbines. It is just getting started with pile driving so no turbine blades have been installed to date. This is an opportune time to undertake caution.
The Nantucket turbines are made by GE and they are the world’s largest in operation today at 13 MW, each driven by three huge 107 meter long blades. That is 351 feet for those of us who do not speak metric. The Virginia turbines will be even bigger at 14 MW with 108 meter (154+ feet) long. They are made by Siemens Gamesa or SG for short. The GE turbines and blades have been in production for going on two years so have some operational experience. The SG turbines and blades just came into production so there is no experience with them. One could say they are being beta tested off Virginia.
This newness in itself is a great concern. At three blades each there are an incredible 528 blades with a combined length over 57,000 meters (187,000 feet or 35 miles) of blades. To take first production blades to these huge lengths is surely very risky. Multiple or even systemic failures are certainly possible. A sound engineering approach would be to build a few and see how they did over time. Note too that the prototypes were in Europe so these blades have never been tested in a hurricane, which offshore Virginia is prone to get.”
Lots more in the article. Please share it.
71
David last Saturday I attended a presentation by FERA (Australia ) about their proposed new wind factory on a local mountain range. One of the questions was “what happens to the blades at end of life”.
The answer was that blades would be recyclable or would break down in land fill as new resins were developed.
Now this is oxymoronic. Why would a blade be built to “break down into its components” when by its very existence is to be as robust as possible for as long as possible.
To make something that will degrade, particularly in a hostile environment like the ocean beggars belief, and, sadly only confirms that “pollution” from premature blade failure will be inevitable.
100
How many turbine blades will be left after a hurricane passes by Virginia?
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/vaclimohur.htm#:
50
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/huw-edwards-charged-making-indecent-150047023.html – the highest paid BBC presenter
10
I am very disappointed with apparent financial difficulties at REX Airlines leading to a trading halt on the stock exchange.
I hope they can get over the problem.
They are a fantastic airline and I fly with them all the time.
Also, they are not woke, no gender pronoun announcements and no “welcome to country”, FFS I am not a atranger in my own country.
180
Are people flying less due to the cost of living crisis under the Albanese Government?
https://www.facebook.com/SkyNewsAustralia/videos/losing-almost-a-million-dollars-a-week-rex-airlines-in-strife/2114889618882284/
80
The cost of living crisis is far worse than is recognised by the Lamestream media and Uniparty politicians.
And it is hidden by the fact that the Government is lying about the true rate of inflation.
It is far more than the official rate of 3.6%.
Everyone I know who actually does their own shopping, unlike politicians and Elites, agrees it’s more like 25% to 30%, possibly more.
110
Qantas up to their usual tricks again, how do they get away with it. ?
20
Do they only fly routes that none of the large airlines fly? I recall that was their principal strategy. If so, has traffic reduced or has Qantas etc started flying those routes?
20
I’ve always thought that they would be servicing the mining industry and AFAIK that is still powering ahead.
20
Leased 737s to compete on major routes
10
Navy SEALs, Sailors Who Refused COVID Vaccine Will Have Records Expunged After Legal Settlement
120
Why only three years?
70
Interesting factoid. American porcupine quills have barbs on their tips and if you or an animal get one stuck in you they will not come out naturally but will work their way deeper and deeper. In contrast, a similar but unrelated animal, the Australian echidna has smooth spines with no barbs and the same applies to the African porcupine and the hedgehog.
60
An impotant tip if you are hit with a barbed tip arrow.
Do not remove yourself unless you want to bleed out. The arrow itself is keeping you from bleeding to death.
Steve Irwin initially believed he had only a punctured lung; however, the stingray’s barb pierced his heart, causing him to bleed to death. Crew members aboard Irwin’s boat administered CPR and rushed him to the nearby Low Island, where medical staff pronounced him dead.
90
The AI-generated video, put together by the account @MrReaganUSA, highlights Harris’s strengths,” including her being the “ultimate diversity hire,” a “deep state puppet,” her word salads, her imitation of Barack Obama, and more.
Thanks to Musk, Mr. Reagan’s hilarious parody has racked up over 130 million views. Below is the video for those who have yet to see it.
Newsom went on to say he would soon sign a bill that would ensure such censorship. California earlier this month advanced legislation imposing “safety” regulation for AI companies despite opposition from Big Tech.
Musk responded by dunking on the disgraced governor with a colorful yet NSFW response.
“I checked with renowned world authority, Professor Suggon Deeznutz, and he said parody is legal in America,” Musk wrote.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/07/elon-musk-dunks-gavin-newsom-colorful-reply-after/
80
Musk referred Newsom to Suggon Statz should he not like the original suggestion. Dr. Statz is also experienced legal counsel.
20
Meta’s AI assistant calls Trump assassination attempt ‘fictional’
90
It seems that it’s intelligence is artificial.
60
Most intelligent AI assistant?
Only the very intelligent can believe things which are truly stupid.
50
So basically its a mindless liberal NPC emulator
00
Another knife attack in the UK – this time children
https://apnews.com/article/knife-attacks-britain-0a221cbd20d467cea952373bf13cab07
10
And, as usual, almost the first thing the authorities said was that people should avoid speculating about the killer’s identity and motives.
Which of course leads me to speculate.
120
The fact that you are instructed “not to speculate” usually gives you all the information you need to know.
71
GBNews only mentioned the suspect was from Cardiff. The UK Telegraph said that his parents were from Rwanda.
80
Merseyside Police confirmed that a 17-year-old boy, from the village of Banks, about five miles away from Southport, had been arrested and was being questioned on suspicion of murder and attempted murder.
The youth, who cannot be named for legal reasons and is originally from Cardiff, moved to the Southport area with his Rwandan parents when he was aged six.
In a press conference, Chief Constable Serena Kennedy, of Merseyside Police, said that while the incident was not being treated as terror-related, colleagues from counter-terror policing had offered to assist with the investigation.
She said the motivation behind the attack remained unclear.
30
Interesting – Seems a Bit Strange????
https://search.brave.com/search?q=Police+arrested+17+year+old+Ali+al+Shakati%3B+arrived+last+year+as+assylum+seeker+with+a+boat+and+was+on+MI6+watch+list.&source=desktop&summary=1&summary_og=84d09ef833b76d2bad98f2
40
Interesting OO, isn’t it?
10
The first statement make by the woke UK police – “No connection to Terrorism”
10
Annie interesting counterpoint in
https://www.rt.com/news/601805-southport-uk-stabbing-children/
move down to Channel 3 and try search of that information in Brave and Microsoft Bing
Fascinating – What do you believe today in Media Reports?
50
And Traitor Penny Wong is bringing 800 HAMAS terrorists to Australia
What could go wrong!
20
Another disturbance in south west Sydney?
00
..and the response is to make more laws to ban machetes and zombie knives, which account for all of 14 in the 244 stabbing deaths last year.
“The other 230 deaths… well, we dunno” said an anonymous Govt spokesperson…
10
Just ban everything.
That’ll fix
itnothing.10
Did We Just Witness The Suicide Of Wokery? (article)
30
I apologise for being immoderate.
Shades of north Korea.
30
KK, we didn’t even notice 🙂
30
FWIW
“Fake News! WSJ CUTS Last Two Seconds of Trump Speech Video Clip and that Changed Everything”
“It’s crazy how removing a few seconds of video from a clip can totally make someone look like they plan to be an unhinged dictator. Such is the case with the two seconds removed from the end of this Trump clip from this weekend.”
More at
https://twitchy.com/justmindy/2024/07/29/2-seconds-cut-from-trump-speech-changes-the-meaning-n2399000
60
Oh, so that’s where the end of elections fraud came from.
Politicians live their entire lives in the gap between the lie travelling around the world and the truth getting its trousers on.
30
Conservative Professor Disciplined For Criticizing DEI Gets $2.4 Million To Settle Lawsuit Against College (article)
40
Janet Yellen Seeks (Just) $78 Trillion To Fight Climate Change (article)
10
It’s not Yellen’s job to “seek funds” for climate change. Makes me wonder what she thinks her role is.
80
So lets double that by buying more Chinese made solar panels, wind turbines and batteries
We will show the Chinese who is boss.
30
The Most Chilling Words Today: I’m From NewsGuard & I’m Here To Rate You (article)
10
Fordite
30
“waste not, want not”
20
Matt Hoh: Western Fear of Losing Power to Asia Could Spark World War III (video)
00
Or possibly, Eastern wish for ultimate power may lead to WWIII.
But let’s not mention Hitler and HIS war.
00
I hesitate to say this but the other day on the duh duh duh ABC wireless they had a chap talking about the Quantum computer Albo has just “invested” $1,000,000,000 in. “The problem is nobody has been able to make it work” because all the atoms have to be kept separate, or something like that. Naturally no questions were asked about the use of public money but then it wasn’t in the script or the talking head’ sphere of knowledge.
80
FWIW – re that “Olympic spectacle”
” Did we just witness the suicide of Wokery? I think you saw what’s called, in the argot of progressive thinking, the “queering” of the Olympics. ”
More at
https://kunstler.com/clusterf*-nation/youll-never-work-in-this-town-again/
20
And there I was thinking the French did a grand job. In my defence, I only saw bits of it including the wonderful light show on the tower and a stirring song from Celine Dion. I’m so glad I missed most of it.
30
Exactly what happened in our household. It is disturbing, but not surprising, to learn of that the finale was the best of the offering.
00
FWIW
“The ‘AI’ Scheme Is Falling Apart”
“Take whatever sort of nonsense has been peddled: AI will replace half the skilled white-collar labor, it’ll be robocars that truly drive themselves, etc.
But now we’re getting analysts asking the key question I’ve put forward for the last couple of years: Ok, you’re spending a crap-ton of money but where is the revenue and when will it come?
So far the answer has been “we’re going to spend even more and we don’t know when the revenue will come but trust us, it will.”
Folks, as I’ve said and again I am someone with four decades of experience in technology (specifically computer and networking technology) speaking: That answer means you’re going to spend and even if you succeed without a defined timeline that begins with the revenue now you get buried because the guy who waits pays half as much for the equipment and it consumes half the power to do equal or more revenue-generating work.”
More at
https://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=251774
50
“A crisis situation is unfolding in the California desert. Thousands of people headed to Las Vegas have been stuck on the I-40 for many hours, running out of gas and water. This is all due to the lithium battery truck fire that closed down I-15 yesterday,” X user Las Vegas Locally wrote on X late Saturday afternoon.”
Things could be worse, you could be stuck in the desert in high summer in an EV with the aircon running and the battery nearly flat.
60
A scholarly look at the Olympics opening ceremony debauchery. Copied from Farcebook. By Joseph Guillermo.
20
Just when you thought it couldn’t get more crazy: Airwheel – and you can “board it on the plane as a carry-on luggage” no, no, no, it’s not too heavy and it won’t blow up 🙄️.
50
Responding to Robin from the next thread…
Nineteen Eighty Four:
What ‘1984’ Tells Us About Eating Under a Totalitarian Regime
The chocolate rationed out to the masses is “dullbrown crumbly stuff” that tastes “like the smoke of a rubbish fire,” and Victory Gin gives of a “sickly, oily smell” and tastes “like nitric acid.” Eating in Oceania, like sex or reading, is a punishing, utilitarian activity, with little room for personal predilections. Few people remember a time when it was anything else, their palates flattened from years of propaganda and saccharine.
https://www.myrecipes.com/extracrispy/what-1984-tells-us-about-eating-under-a-totalitarian-regime
SEE LINK FOR REST
40
Ronin not Robin.
00
According to Viganò, “Satan makes nothing: only he ruins everything. He does not invent: he tampers. And his followers are no different: they humiliate woman’s femininity in order to erase the motherhood that recalls the Virgin Mother; they castrate man’s manhood in order to tear from the image of God’s fatherhood; they corrupt the little ones in order to kill in them and make them victims of the most abject wokeism.”
Looks like Satan and governments have a bit in common…
10
Ever wonder why Earth has a molten core and completes one turn in 24 hours while Venus, of similar size and not too far off WRT the sun, has a solid core and takes 2806 hours to make one spin.
I made a recent discovery regarding the sun where the gravitation field acting on the sun imparts a spinning torque. The average spin is in the direction of orbital rotation but the torque varies and there are periods of accelerating and retarding torque. The peak torque also moves around the sun basically at Jupiters period but not as steady as Jupiter. It is thee variation in torque and shearing across the surface and interior that produces sunspots and increases solar radiance.
Any orbit that has eccentricity means that the orbing mass can gain or lose torque because the translational speed varies, increasing when it is closer to the sun and decreasing when it is further away. The torque varies with depth and latitude. Venus has an orbit with maximum eccentricity of 0.7% while Earth can experience 1.7&. The gravitational torque will be dissipative when working on a plasma due to the viscous losses. So the gravitational force acting on Earth is generating heat in the core. It has long been thought that a fission reaction keeps it warm but this is an alternative explanation.
Mars takes 24.7 hours to do one spin and has the highest orbital eccentricity of 9.4$. It is only half the diameter of Earth yet has a molten core.
Jupiter Saturn and Uranus have orbital eccentricity around 5% and days The gas giants have relatively high eccentricity around 5% and spins of 24.7, 9.9 and 10.7. Uranus has another twist, literally, in the story because its spin axis is close the ecliptic plane and spins in the opposite direction to orbit. Neptune is the odd one because eccentricity is only 1% but a spin only takes 16.1 hours.
Wonders to ponder in the universe!
50
And Venus has no plate tectonic activity.
10
“And Venus has no plate tectonic activity.” .. because its such a young planet and it hasn’t developed plates yet. It doesn’t have a solid core, the barely-cooled land is floating on a liquid that has sulphur geysers coming up through it.
It wasn’t made when the other planets were, it was formed from a collision between an extra-system body with Jupiter, causing great disruption on Earth as it fell into its inner orbit. The sulpur forms a disulphide which has a very close spectra to that of CO2, which is why American scientists think it has a high-CO2 atmosphere and runaway global warming.
..and I can’t remember the rest of it, but it was a great idea until the author started talking about proto-Venus going into a stationary orbit with Earth.
10
Sounds Velikovsky-ish …
Auto
00
Redacted on the Olympiques (video)
00
Polar lightshows
https://va.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_sesrcmZgGR1xww0ux.mp4
Spectacular!
20
“Folded boy” is being straightened
https://youtu.be/mRzwab5b5lk?si=thFlSKKywKjKtGs_
Imagine life like that…
10
Thank you for that. It is incredibly inspiring and highlights the advances being made in preserving life in China.
Life becomes more precious when there are fewer children and well educated population.
My Grandfather spent some periods of his early childhood in Honk Kong. That was early last century. His memory of that experience was human life was expendable.
00
More evidence that there were two shooters
Was there one inside the double story buiding with open windows?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9-VmwM3qzY&ab_channel=PeakProsperity
10
Only two? Gee you would think that they could have got a solid hit on someone within a metre of the podium
00
Here’s another reason to be very worried about the direction in which the West could head:
What does the renaissance of universal jurisdiction mean for global justice?
https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/foreign-affairs/what-does-the-renaissance-of-universal-jurisdiction-mean-for-global-justice/85059479?
An edited excerpt:
While this is all well-intentioned, what could happen in a highly politically charged environment in a world in which the ‘wrong people’ have power? Could ‘mission creep’ mean that universal jurisdiction expands to cover ‘crimes’ such as climate ‘denialism’, vaccine ‘denialism’, ‘threats’ to online ‘safety’, disinformation, or ‘threats to democracy’ such as election result ‘denialism’, … or (take your pick)?
We all know how the ‘new authoritarians’ work. They rely on gradualism, or incrementalism, to relentlessly advance their agenda, but they never push hard enough to risk a concerted pushback by us proles. This means that in countries in which conservatism is non-existent, such as Australia, there is no one to stop them. It is all one-way traffic.
Trump is the last hope for the West. If he loses, the authoritarians will be free to put in place the last few planks in their agenda, the important ones being censorship, programmable digital currencies, social credit scores, travel restrictions and rendering the nation state as politically irrelevant. There will be no coming back from this. And those who have hopes of a Trump victory should ask whether all of the elements are in place for a repeat of 2020!
Some people are putting faith in cryptocurrencies as a way to dilute the power the ruling class have over us. In fact, just a couple of weeks ago I saw a short video in which Nigel Farage, having just had his own issues with banks, suggested that people should start to educate themselves about cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. That’s all well and good but of what use is it if we are denied access to the telecommunications networks?
Everything that is wrong with society has been caused by governments or exacerbated by them, yet people still vote for more of the same.
50
FWIW – more “fine specimen” stuff
“‘Good Morning, General’ – Intern From Kamala Harris’ Attorney General Days Shares Eye-Opening Stories”
https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2024/07/29/according-to-former-intern-kamala-harris-instructed-employees-at-ca-doj-to-address-her-as-general-n2177520
30
With the term “Attorney General” Attorney is the noun, general the adjective, as in “general rubbish”.
‘Tis odd that the Yanks fought a bitter war to rid themselves of royalty but overuse titles [Governor Huckabee, Judge Janine] almost as a compensatory reflex.
Being of convict stock we have an aversion to terms of respect, and the Cockneys gave us rhyming slang, bless ’em.
10
CDN: The Top 10 Inconvenient Facts About Climate Change (video)
10
Thanks Kim,
Good one. 21 mins, and well presented.
A very neat summarisation.
Cheers,
Dave B
10
Kamala on a coconut?
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/the-thrill-of-taking-a-huge-risk-on-kamala-harris.html
On top of a big hairy nut…
What could it symbolise?😆
00
Ugh. Paywalled.
10
Try right click and choose “save linked content as …” then open the resulting “the-thrill-of-taking-a-huge-risk-on-kamala-harris.html” file.
20
Estonia is a prime example of post glacial uplift.
https://notrickszone.com/2024/07/29/early-1900s-maps-reveal-sea-levels-have-fallen-dramatically-near-estonia/
11
14 heavy aircraft take off in 5 minutes. In the good old days before clean burning engines and wake turbulence.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbnJPTBUDPs
10
I watched this.
(Never heard of MITO.)
Left Jonova and clicked on YouTube, also a minute interval.
And a MITO vid was suggested especially for me.
I am special.
10
Diesel-engined Buffs…
00
The Olympics Are Being Boycotted for Many Reasons (video)
00