By Jo Nova
The cost problem is solved (for all the wrong reasons), but it’s still not enough
Around the world, governments are trying to force people to buy electric vehicles because they are nice people who are worried about polar bears. And since drivers out there all believe in climate change, according to all the pollsters, it shouldn’t be a big ask. (Who wouldn’t want to save the Earth?)
Supposedly, just 10 years from now, they told us, we wouldn’t be able to buy a new combustion engine car at all. Instead, not only are sales of new EV slowing rapidly, to the point where there is a glut, but as prices fall for used cars customers are not rushing out to pick up the cheaper second hand EVs either.
Look at how fast the turnaround in this market has been in the last year — a 25% price premium– gone:
Used EVs are now selling for thousands of dollars less, on average, than comparable gas-powered vehicles.
Kaya Ginsky, CNBC
The difference between the price of a used Tesla Model 3 and BMW 3 Series shows how a “premium” associated with EVs in the initial boom has been erased, according to an analysis from iSeeCars.
The decline has been dramatic over the past year. In June 2023, average used EV prices were over 25% higher than used gas car prices, but by May, used EVs were on average 8% lower than the average price for a used gasoline-powered car in U.S. In dollar terms, the gap widened from $265 in February to $2,657 in May, according to an analysis of 2.2 million one to five year-old used cars conducted by iSeeCars. Over the past year, gasoline-powered used vehicle prices have declined between 3-7%, while electric vehicle prices have decreased 30-39%.
And all leading indicators are down. Fewer people have plans to buy an EV, and the pool of people who won’t even consider buying one is growing:
A Gallup poll of Americans in April found ownership of EVs increasing by 3% annually, but an equal percentage decline in consumers who indicated serious interest in buying an EV, down from 12% to 9%. Overall, 35% of Americans said they might consider buying an EV in the future, down from 43% last year.
In Germany, the formerly great industrial empire, EV sales are down 30% compared to this time last year, but sales of petrol engines are up 2% and diesel cars are up 3%.
Pierre Gosselin at NoTricksZone tells us the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) reports a 30.6% fall in registration of new electric cars compared to May a year ago.
CO2 emissions of new German cars also rose 3.3%…indicating the green transition has stalled and is reversing.
Hat-tip: Blackout News
The KBA also adds that 89,498 passenger cars were equipped with a gasoline engine – an increase of 2.1 percent compared to the same month last year.
44,893 new cars were diesel-powered, an increase of 3.2 percent compared to the same month last year.
History books will be written about the crazy political EV bubble.
The profile of people buying electric cars indicates that it is often an upper middle class family buying a second car. And that less demanding and richer group is saturating.
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Yes. All the poseurs and virtue signalers have already purchased their toys. No one else wants them.
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More low usage application by people who aren’t worried about the range or the cost or resale value. Yes, a fun purchase too. The acceleration is fun. The overall novelty. And perhaps for successful women, performance without the macho male baggage. A fun poke at the male petrol heads.
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Electric motors and gas engines each have their pros and cons.
https://xkcd.com/2948/
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This group is less critical of the range, less critical of the price performance and less concerned about accidents, maintenance and resale value, less likely to use leasing and possibly more likely to buy and hold. Basically a shorter range fun car for local shopping and work in the inner city, more a toy than a daily commute or serious work car.
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” more a toy ”
They are more like other devices with batteries, such as a laptop or a cell phone. They serve a purpose but are replaced frequently, with the 5(?)-year-old ones being tossed in the trach or recycle bin. Even then, only certain types of people/places make a good fit for EVs.
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A neighbour lost his entire house and memories to a fire in a small Dyson stick vacuum cleaner at night. We went through a period on aircraft where we had to remove batteries because of a series of fires. Apartment blocks have been destroyed by an electric bicycle. It may come to the point where high power batteries, even small batteries have to be kept outside the house. And we have seen what an electric car fire produces, destroying car parks, rows of cars and even a whole ferry. The technology keeps improving, but we are still learning and general public concerns about electric cars are growing.
We will not go backwards, electric batteries are too convenient. But how long before we start to see bans and major restrictions on electric cars, the way Europeans have banned and fined diesels. The argument that they are good for the environment will start to be questioned, especially when your house burns down.
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TdeF – Out of curiosity, I pulled apart a Dyson stick vacuum cleaner battery about 2 years ago. It was no longer working, I felt suspicious about the battery, so why not.
Once I cracked open the case, I immediately said a few choice words… Where the hell is the BMS (battery management system)? It had 6 Li-Ion cells wired in series with NO BMS! This is an unforgivable sin in the world of lithium batteries, and without a BMS you are just begging for a fire.
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Wow! Their stuff is very expensive too, the market leader. I wonder whether it was a fake, a Chinese knock off? That would make sense and may explain the fire. People leave these things charging all the time and the fires often come from overcharging.
I will ask. This truly is worthy of an urgent forensic investigation if there are Dyson fakes. And a warning.
Or was this a replaceable Battery pack? And then was it an original Dyson battery pack. Perhaps Dyson themselves have been ripped off?
So many of the batteries are made in China. And in my experience, they will cut any corner for profit.
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Apparently you can buy adapters to use Dewalt battery packs in Dyson stick vacuums.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Tools/comments/11sig9a/use_your_cordless_batteries_to_replace_the_crap/
Dewalt batteries are likely to be far more rugged as they are built for commercial use to be thrown around and abused.
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FWIW, the battery cells were LG and had a weight that was appropriate for their capacity. Batteries made in China tend to have ludicrous ratings and weigh very little.
The battery pack was a replaceable click-in type. It had no BMS and nor did it have the space to house a BMS.
A friend who was visiting recently got me to charge two of his 18650 cells as he forgot to take his charger on their Southern tour. One was LG, the other one was SUREFIRE (was there ever such a fitting name?). Anyway, the battery made with the very best Chinesium was rated at an industry-walloping 6000mah and weighed about as much as a moth fart. With fear for my safety, I discharged it and then charged it up to 100%. It took ~350mah before the voltage peaked at 4.2 and the charger said it was done.
Buy genuine, folks!
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Did you pull apart the charger pack?
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Yarpos – The charger was just a simple wall-pack device with two-wire connection plug. I think you might be heading down the line of questioning as to whether or not the charger was smart or not? Regardless of it being a regulated voltage, or not, it only takes one cell in the series-connected battery string to die for trouble to start. In a string of 5 batteries, the charged voltage would be 21 volts, or 4.2V each. If one cell dies and goes closed circuit, then the remaining batteries will charge to 5.25V as a result.
You might get away with having no BMS on new evenly matched cells for a while, but ultimately age will catch up with them and then the imbalance will 100% cause trouble.
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… just as a addendum to your experience…
I have a Dyson stick vac battery opened up on my desk now.
It is a zp9-AU- pcr2267a, from a V7, so very comon format, that has been used on most of their models, and you need special tools ( mini philips) to remove it from the vac…it is not a simple click in place pack, and much cunning tp “crack it open”
It has 6 cells and a small but complex BMS about the size of a thick credit card, mounted on top of the cells with balance connections to each cell.
This is a very well designed and packaged battery.
On this pack, all cells are still fine, but the BMS has failed somewhere preventing its use in the stick vac.
PS ..Dyson supplied a “no cost” replacement .!
The cells are unbranded (commercial use) 18650, and 2000 mAh
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Good work. This sounds nothing like the battery Peter of Charnlop found.
My expectation of Peter’s device is one of either
a) a complete fake, a non Dyson vacuum or
b) a battery substitution by a subcontractor in assembly.
Both are possible and either would explain the fire. Especially from overcharging.
It shows the real potential for a disastrous result created by what should be dangerous and therefore criminal substitution.
Imagine if petrol pumps in cars were substituted the same way. Or as has recently been discovered, titanium parts in Boeing jets which were invalid substitutes. A number of lethal aircraft crashes when analysed forensically as they must, were from foreign made parts in one case from Korea. I dread to think what is possible with China.
About all I could say to anyone with a battery charged device, is not to leave it on charge overnight. Especially if it never finished charging. A fire is not only possible but likely.
And this in turn should make anyone wary of electric cars. Especially those made in China or batteries made in China without adequate quality control by the purchaser. It is the land of fakes and substitutes for everything, almost a national passion.
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CPSC Warns Consumers to Immediately Stop Using ZAUTNKN.INC Lithium-Ion Replacement Battery Packs for Dyson Vacuums Due to Fire Hazard; Sold on Amazon.com
The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) is warning consumers to immediately stop using ZAUTNKN.INC lithium-ion replacement battery packs because they pose a risk of fire to consumers.
The battery packs are not compliant with UL 1642, meaning that their performance and safety have not been verified to meet national safety standards. The battery packs are manufactured in China by Ganzhoushimeizishengwukejiyouxiangongsi and are listed as replacements for battery packs used in cordless V6 Dyson vacuum cleaners. The ZAUTNKN.INC battery packs are not a Dyson or Dyson-authorized product. There have been three reports of fires and one report of smoke inhalation associated with the battery packs.
The battery packs are silver-colored and are intended by Ganzhoushimeizishengwukejiyouxiangongsi to clip into the handle of select Dyson vacuum cleaners. They are 3,000 mAH battery capacity, 21.6 volts when fully charged, and were sold under the Amazon ASIN B093Y1KK5Q for between $15 and $40. The battery manufacturer claims the battery packs are compatible with Dyson V6 models: SV04, SV03, SV05, SV06, SV07, SV09, vtc4, DC58, DC59, DC61, DC62, DC72, DC74, V6 Animal and V6 Motorhead.
https://www.cpsc.gov/Newsroom/News-Releases/2024/CPSC-Warns-Consumers-to-Immediately-Stop-Using-ZAUTNKN-INC-Lithium-Ion-Replacement-Battery-Packs-for-Dyson-Vacuums-Due-to-Fire-Hazard-Sold-on-Amazon-com
If they’re cheap, it’s for a reason.
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The genuine Dyson packs ( as with most quality cordless tool packs), have a “full function” BMS module incorporated.
That is to say it controls the charging process , charge rate, CC/CV profile, max charge voltage cut off, pack temperature, etc.
It also monitors individual cell voltage and ballances each cell to match voltages.
In addition it monitors discharge current and will prevent excess current flow,..shutting off power to the motors if anything is wrong.
Large EV packs do all of this and more if engineered correctly, but the weak link is always the human factor !
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Plus the collapsing prices feeds into a cycle for leasing as the new price collapses, the second hand price collapses which means the asset backing of the lease collapses. This means a buyer used to flipping expensive cars is trapped with the gap between the new car price and the second hand price is too great.
Other factors include the dramatic news of fires, the failure to charge at all in Chicago, concerns about heating in winter and horror stories of people who undertake long trips and cannot find charging points where and when they need them. Stories about ferries and car parks being concerned about electric cars, about soaring repair bills and the real chance the car is written off in what for a petrol car would be a minor accident because of non repairable damage to the battery. There is starting to be a premium on businesses which can repair electric cars and especially electric car batteries as both the number of damaged cars and the number of people who specialise in fixing them grows.
Overall the fun buying part is over. The problems are now manifest as reported by companies like Hertz who bought 60,000 cars and they are quite different mechanical, financial, practical problems. In fact Hertz was finding people in a hurry do not want to rent electric cars, possibly concerned at their impression on clients and their fitness for purpose. Yesterday’s toy is today’s potential embarrassment.
Instead of being a startling new toy which brings great interest from neighbours and friends and clients, the same group are now openly doubting the wisdom of the purchase or rental. This dampens buyer enthusiasm. The fun is not gone, but the wisdom is being questioned by everyone.
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Australia’s Left always adopts the failed ideas of others.
Those attempting to impose EVs on Australia are generally beta males who obviously never go beyond their inner city vegan soy latte decaf serving cafes. If they did they would realise Australia is a vast continent with one of the lowest population densities in the world for which EVs are utterly unsuitable beyond cities or popular inter-city routes with charging stations.
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The idea that society in general and the taxpayer in particular should fund plentiful, reliable, vandal proof and fast charging stations across a vast continent is very odd when you consider that no one ever demanded the government (that’s us) pay for petrol/gas stations.
It’s another case of activists demanding their view of the world of physics be funded by everyone else. There is no significant global warming.
The recent ridiculous announcement that a chilly May in the UK was the hottest May in recorded history was a great example of the government blatantly lying to the public. The outcry was so great they had to explain that only the nights were hotter due to unusual cloud cover. So debunking both the hottest every story and the CO2 story in one giant retraction.
People are starting to realise, as with electric cars, that what you are being told and reality are two different things.
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Just like ‘Safe and Effective’.
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Just as an aside on the MET warmest ever scandal, how are they calculating averages which are essential in this Global Warming story behind the electric car adventure.
For example if the range of the day was 10C to 20C and you made it 10C to 21C, the average increases only 0.5C. And if the range changed to 11C to 21C does that count as +2C or +1C? It is really odd to start to talk about global warming in terms of the daily average, so when they talk about an increase of say +3C, is that in the peak temperature or the average.
And very practically when we are told Global Temperatures have increased 1.2Degrees, do they mean peak temperatures or average?
The difference can be astounding if say the lowest daily temperatures are not affected. Or conversely they are predicting hotter nights and not hotter days?
It’s amazing that after all this time I cannot say. Does anyone know?
Perhaps for another post.
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Concerning the UK “hottest eeevveeerrr, May” scandal from the UK Met Office, which was obvious gaslighting, YouTuber Simon had the following comments (5.5 mins).
https://youtu.be/u0THMjDuIBI
He is not a scientist, just a regular non-woke, non-Leftist but it was obvious to him, “from the evidence of his senses”, that the Government was obviously lying.
And he saw that.
Sadly, few people in younger generations than him have enough common sense or analytical ability to see the lies for what they were.
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Thanks.
The link to the MET report
This shows that most of the increase was in the Scottish highlands at night at 3.5C warmer than usual. So when they talk of the mean for the whole of the UK, it gets sillier. It was much warmer at night in the Scottish highlands and this makes
the May everywhere hotter.
This is nonsense.
But think of this on a planetary scale. Which is why I argue that the creation of a whole of planet temperature across night and day, mountains and flats, Antarctica to the Sahara, winter, spring, autumn and summer is a joke. It is at best an attempt to create a reference temperature used for calculations as a homogenous, flat, uniform colour ball with no clouds and no oceans. As such it is as silly as it is meaningless.
And on this we wonder why the models don’t work? I don’t wonder. This chaotic average is meaningless from a predictive point of view, especially when 74% of the planet has water or ice for a surface and in winter, much more.
I love the fit of Prof Weiss to the thermometer recorded temperatures of six European cities. This makes so much more sense. Mainly land. A substantial area. A limited set of latitudes. Real thermometers, not ‘proxies’. And it might even be a single temperature per day than day and night, which are completely different stories.
So what is driving this electric car/windmill/solar/hydrogen/ammonia/lithium madness is rubbish science. The MET just proved it, the insanity of averaging everything.
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Yes TdeF, Drifting O/T but on the ground in N England it has been cool, cloudy and wetter than normal with frequent high wind-chill factors. Outdoor events have needed coats and brollies.
Met Office are just “sabre-rattling” as it keeps them in business.
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“my ELECTRIC CAR is now WORTHLESS EVen the DEALERSHIP doesn’t want it back! EVs are DISPOSABLE JUNK!!” doesn’t help.
A damning serious of honest videos in the UK (search McMaster Taycan) cannot have helped. This from a Porsche enthusiast. After all the Porsche Taycan cost him 120,000 Pound ($A230,000 $US152,445)
This Porsche electric car could not be made fast enough to satisfy demand. And now they are impossible to sell. This video journalist bought for 120,000 pound and in 12 months found the price halved to 60,000 pound! That’s huge. And Porsche is a market leader world famous for being an investment, not a cost.
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And this message from Rowan Atkinson, who considers himself a lover of EVs and an early adopter:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/03/electric-vehicles-early-adopter-petrol-car-ev-environment-rowan-atkinson
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Atkinson is also an electrical engineer so has qualifications to speak of such things
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As a qualified EE, you would think that Rowan should have “zoomed out to a bigger picture” where it’s clear that the electric energy that is being used to power these “fast fashion” sales is still coming (and will continue to come) from fossil fuels. Sure, in some countries they have nuclear generation but somehow there is a lot of double-counting to say “our product will be powered by wind and solar”. If EVs soak up all the energy from W&S generation then everyone else needs to say they are being powered by fossil fuels. That is, everyone who has a solar system on their roof cannot claim to be not using fossil fuels. And there is not much solar to go around at night.
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A well written article by Rowan Atkinson which highlights an inconvenient truth. EVs are not green. When one looks at total emissions the extra emissions in production take time to be countered by the lower emissions in the usage stage. A VW research paper in 2017 ( highlighted by Jo about 15 months ago) showed that under the best EU grid scenario it took 125000 km just to break even comparing the VW diesel Golf with its electric equivalent. In Germany and USA with their grids it was more than 200000km.
A car is only as Green as the energy that is used to charge it and the idiotic situation in China was that an EV owner there was actually adding to total emissions every time he recharged.
Even if the figures have improved since 2017 it’s clear that for most EV owners by the time they have traded in their EV the world would’ve been better off if they would’ve bought a diesel instead.
This inconvenient truth has made me wonder about the greenness of a power grid of renewables compared with solar but more importantly nuclear.
If one compares the 200 square kilometres of wind turbines needed to provide the one square kilometre of nuclear I suspect the emissions differential would be huge in favour of nuclear. In fact when one looks at the relatively short life expectancy of renewables I would think like with EVs the production and use of this form of energy makes little difference to the level of global emissions and in fact probably makes things worse..
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TdeF,
A small quibble:
Fairly common mistake. The plural of pound is pounds. I think it’s a confusion from when “pound” is used attributively (i.e. as an adjective). A 120,000 dollar car is bought with 120,000 dollars. Works just the same with pounds. The mistake is even more popular with feet.
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It was a typo. Sorry.
I grew up with pounds. A pound, many pounds. We decimalized in 1966. It was odd to use dollars, cents. And even in physics you have cgs and mks. But we stopped using the plural for weight. And I still have to convert mentally. Speedoes often had two dials, one with km/hr and the other mph.
I was also surprised in the land of metric, France where they use a still use a livre for a pound in weight. Butter for example. Technically today 500g but in the period after the revolution and the time of Napoleon it was around 403gms where the British pound in weight is 453gm. The British units were useful, practical. But a lot to remember as they were different for every occupation.
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Also consider the female market.
As Australian society (and Western society generally) continues to degenerate and become more dangerous, especially for women, a female friend of mine explained the logic behind her new car purchase.
She didn’t want an EV because she didn’t want to risk getting a flat battery especially at night or being away from a charging station or have to spend long periods of time potentially alone at a charging station.
She also was concerned about the high cost of fuel due to high taxes.
So, she opted for a hybrid, a choice I fully agreed with.
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Also consider real Australian males and not the beta males in Canberra
Why do Australians love Land Cruisers?
Extremely reliable. There’s long distances between towns, it’s a long walk if you break down, and if you do need repairs parts they are common enough they are easy to obtain and there are plenty of trained mechanics if you cannot do the repairs yourself
How popluar would EVs be in outback Australia – even with all those recharging station Genius Bowen in building?
https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/media-releases/fast-charging-ev-stations-ready-connect-nt-regions
.
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There is a company in Gibraltar that modifies Land Crusers for aid work in the 3rd world.
You can have them in any colour – so long as it is white!
https://www.toyota-gib.com/eng/workshops/conversions.html
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Do outback roads count as “High Vibration Environments”?
The Standard Range version of the Tesla 3 carries 2,976 cells arranged in 96 groups of 31. The Long Range version carries 4,416 cells arranged in 96 groups of 46, and weighs 1,060 pounds (480 kg) in a 0.40 m³ volume; a density of 150 Wh/kg (540 kJ/kg).
So in a high vibration environment these cells might start to rub together and before long there is no need to fire up the barbie – just throw some snags on the roof of your new Tesla!
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FYI.. the cells in Tesla Model 3 are all bonded together rigidly, and connot “rub together”
Other models and manufacturers may well behave as described, but few EVs use the small capacity cells in the quantities as used by Tesla.
PS.. many of our regeonal roads have worse potholes and surface irregularities than outback graded dirt roads !
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I don’t get out much any more but there used to a lot of corrugated gravel road that would rattle your teeth. ‘Tis possible better suspensions don’t destroy the road this way now, who knows.
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There are only two ways to drive on corrugations: So slow it’s painful or so fast it’s dangerous.
https://bkhome.org/news/201907/images/corrugated-road.jpg
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“Yes, according to Colin Buchanan’s song in honour of “The Wanaaring Road”
https://youtu.be/dy1iq6AV-vU
Quite a list of trophies
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I think many Vicdanistani roads qualify as high vibration environments. Teal and Green policymakers won’t change that. But that’s OK, so long as you speculate that cheap yet unreliable renewable energy sources will provide adequate power to the Aus grid in the near future (ie wind turbines and paddocks of solar panels)
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Powered from what source.
My son works at Uluru and there are EV chargers in the area powered from diesel generators.
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I’m picturing Ayres Rock with an array of solar cells on top.
Nah! Doesn’t work. Stick with diesel.
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There are some “fast” chargers across the Nulaboor, with more being installed ,powered by banks of solar panels and storage batteries.
But nearly every roadhouse and servo has either single phase (7 kWh) or 3 phase (32 Ah ?) charging facilities. Most camp sites also have 15 A power points that can be used for slow chaarging (overnight)
Unfortunately, it is not uncommon for charge facilities to be non functing , unavailable , or simply already in use !
And yes i have can confirm the “chip fat” fueled charge station also !
Users need to be aware. That most of these remote charge points are cash only and can be expensive ..up to $1+ per kWh !
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The highway to Cairns was flooded so traffic had to take the inland route through Greenvale and The Lynd. I stopped there for a break and the geny gave up – couldn’t handle the pumps and the cooking. I wouldn’t expect a polite reply if I asked where the EV charger was.
I suspect you would get a similar response at the Belyando Crossing Roadhouse, a long way south of Charters Towers.
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Somehow, I don’t think this woman moto-vlogger will be trading in her Ninja for an EB
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aae3Qc3XWc
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I also believe the images of BYD (Build Your Dream) Chinese electric cars piling up at ports around the world has a negative effect. It is certainly dropping prices but with that comes any idea of exclusivety or prestige. And a real concern about infamous Chinese build quality even if Porsche and Tesla use Chinese made batteries. And the more they pile up, the more the price drops, the more people look seriously at the car as a business proposition.
The move by Toyota, the most respected maker for quality in the world, is another factor. They do not believe in a continuing boom market for electric cars. In fact they are gambling the price performance and reliability of smaller engines will be the long term winner in the battle. One factor in that amazingly is that the CO2 output of a small light weight car carrying its own fuel is lower than an electric car running on remote coal. Even Mercedes new high performance 6.3AMG car is powered by a turbo charged 4 cylinder and 150kw electric, a power to weight ratio increase while lowering CO2.
Toyota also agrees that the world is moving to a hybrid world which outperforms both full petrol and full electric cars on price, reliability, power and range and CO2 emissions.
Put simply, battery technology has failed to improve much in twenty years because of one factor, chemistry. The energy density of batteries has not kept pace with technology. Hybrids will improve both the power to weight ratio and reduce emissions. More importantly as fuel inevitably becomes more scarce, emissions reduction will coincide with conservation and the economics of fuel price performance, coal vs oil vs cost of manufacture and maintenance and distribution. Brutal economics dictates hybrids.
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And not even in principle can an electrochemical cell with lots of inert “stuff” match the pure energy contained in liquid hydrocarbons.
This is from 2013 but I don’t think much has changed.
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There is scope to make petrol engines much more efficient if the combustion temperature is increased, simply as a Carnot cycle. There was talk years ago of ceramic liners and much higher compression. However as we have found with diesels, you can create components like NO2 which would not occur at lower compression. And that ultimately is killing the diesel engine in passenger cars. (NO2 like SO2 is hygroscopic and like SO2 turns into a deadly acid. They had stopped sulphuric acid destroying Europe and diesels introduced Nitric acid)
One overlooked aspect though is that the waste energy is heat and most people live in countries which are very cold in winter. Having lots of waste heat is a bonus for humans travelling in metal boxes.
And now people have experienced long distance driving in winter in electric cars, they are going back to the far better warmth, security and convenience of petrol cars at a lower cost.
I have lived in Colorado where every day was -40C/-40F. Where a bottle of wine exploded inside my car in a mile of driving back to the apartment. (It was a Mouton Cadet). It is not a climate where you would want any problems driving. Or as the locals said, at least it’s not Alaska. (-50C). And in summer when it was +40C at night with 98% humidity, at least it’s not Texas.
What Australians see as a problems in our temperate to semi tropical climates are nothing compared to the Climates of the world where 60% of humans live.
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I think that is obsolete. I went to search.brave.com to get away from the EV talkfest and found this:
Obviously those super-efficient engines aren’t in the showrooms yet but advances continue to be made.
Mazda and Nissan are rolling out new engines and Merc are developing continuously variable electronically operated valves.
SKYACTIV-X M HYBRID
Skyactiv-X M Hybrid is an engine that changes everything. Our pioneering engineers succeeded where others failed. Skyactiv-X burns petrol more efficiently thanks to our Spark Controlled Compression Ignition (SPCCI). It makes more power but produces fewer emissions and uses less fuel than a regular petrol engine for an even better drive without compromise. When you decelerate, the integrated starter motor generator produces electricity which is stored in a 24-volt battery and deployed as needed. Skyactiv-X M Hybrid is now available in Mazda3 and Mazda CX-30.
https://www.mazda.com.au/imagination-drives-us/skyactiv-x/
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H
Not cars but those big Wartsila Sulzer ships diesels are now over 50% efficient.
And typed enough to be in spellcheck!
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WOW, ain’t that sumpthin. Still burns the cylinder lube oil though. [not a criticism, an observation]
Having lived on the shores of the GBR forever I still don’t like heavy fuel oil ships anywhere near it. Lighter fuels are less polluting if the ship is holed. Any leaking coal will just form a shoal fish habitat so it’s OK.
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Internal combustion,, ..but not piston type…
…modern large turbines as used in CCGT generators are now at 60%+ efficiency !
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In short, the car industry will be gutted.
Greens will argue to keep tarrifs down. Economists will argue to raise tarrifs.
That $50k car will be a big liability.with little chance of being maintained 5 years into the future.
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Toyota moving in the right direction
Explained: What are F1’s current power unit engine rules?
F1’s hybrid power units are the most technologically advanced engines in the world, boasting astonishing levels of efficiency and power output.
Formula 1’s current engine regulations dictate that each team must be powered by a four-stroke 1.6 litre V6 engine, which includes a turbocharger and hybrid electric ancillaries, and sees a maximum permitted RPM of 15,000.
The technical details of these engines are highly prescribed, as laid out in the current Technical Regulations.
The current engine formula was introduced for the 2014 season, with the rate of progress since then seeing the manufacturers achieve incredible efficiency and remarkable power output.
The current rules will remain in place until, at least, the 2025 season, with talks currently underway to decide upon the next generation rules set to be rolled out for 2026.
Who makes the current F1 engines?
There are currently four manufacturers of homologated power units for use in Formula 1.
. Mercedes: Based in Brixworth and manufactured by Mercedes High-Performance Powertrains, these engines are used by the Mercedes factory team, and customer teams McLaren, Williams, and Aston Martin.
. Ferrari: Manufactured from Ferrari’s base in Maranello, the factory team are just one of three teams using these engines. Joining them are customers Alfa Romeo, and Haas.
. Honda: While officially withdrawn from Formula 1 as a factory effort, the Japanese manufacturer’s engines are still manufactured from their base in Sakura, and shipped to Red Bull and AlphaTauri for use in the 2022 season. Red Bull’s new engine department, branded as Red Bull Powertrains, will eventually take over the manufacturing of their own engines.
. Renault: Based in Viry-Chatillon, the current Renault power unit is only used by the factory Alpine (owned by Groupe Renault) outfit.
How powerful are F1’s 2022 engines?
F1’s 2022 engines produce over 1000bhp, with all of the manufacturers achieving similar figures. Exact figures are not offered by the manufacturers, meaning that calculating the most powerful is down to educated guesswork, rather than any measurable public metric.
30
And they have discovered that the balance between battery power and engine power is about 16%. This is used by Audi in their cars which they call mild hybrid. The new AMG 6.3 4 cylinder Mercedes was built to break records and to compensate for the loss of power. But they keep the badging of the old equivalent, a 6.3 litre V8.
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Even qthe current range of V8 “6.3” merc’s are in reality only 4.0 litre! Turbos
20
Yes and now only 2.0 litres. I think this litre labelling is just nuts. As when Mercedes brought out a 4 door C (Coupe) and a two door E. (Saloon). The badging is out of control. But real Germans don’t like badged anyway.
A friend had a BMW. It had ‘luxury’ written everywhere as a badge. A real luxury car does not need the badge, but as said the Germans don’t care for badges anyway.
00
A hint if you are ever test driving a hybrid: When trailing the throttle note the retardation relevant to the ICE cars you are used to. Mine is old and this is the one beef I have, when entering a speed zone just trailing the throttle will put you at risk of a ticket, you actually have to brake.
As an added bonus, the more powerful the hybrid system the more grunt when you hit the loud pedal and electricity is harvested more efficiently thus better overall consumption.
And Toyota’s CVT would be yuk if the muffler was dying. OK if you can’t hear it. 🙂
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Hmm ?… that will soon change in F1 since the 2026 engine regs will increase the MGU-K (electric hybrid motor generator) output to 350 kW whilst the ICE output will be limited to 400kW ..= 87.5% !
10
No idea how this turns into 87.5% not roughly 50%, but sounds like fun. And closer to the Mercedes number.
I live 100 metres from the Grand Prix track and go every year. It’s a great event.
10
..in kW…electrical/ice
F1.. 350/400 = 87.5%
Merc AMG 151/352= 42.8%
Audi 48v mild hybrid adds 15 kW electrical to a 200kW ice, = 7.5%
00
Also, as the woke countries like Australia continue to shut down their power stations, where is the electricity to charge EVs going to come from?
One estimate I saw was that if everyone had an EV and drove as many kms as they do with an ICE vehicle, then the dispatchable power on the grid would have to double. In Australia where there is a commitment to eliminate dispatchable power, that’s just not going to happen.
Which leads us to the ultimate objective of all this madness and that is the Elites of the Left just don’t want us to drive. They have always hated the individual freedom and mobility conferred by the private motor vehicle.
That’s why they are also promoting the free range prisons generally known as “15 min cities” (WEF terminology) or “20 Minute Neighbourhoods” (Australian rebranding) where you can walk or cycle everywhere, except if you’re old or disabled (but that’s why they also promote euthanasia).
https://intelligence.weforum.org/monitor/latest-knowledge/8d496bec33e74bd9b0e0eaf99b9a1f8f
https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/guides-and-resources/strategies-and-initiatives/20-minute-neighbourhoods
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I am appalled that governments we elected to coordinate our group needs like rubbish collection and shared infrastructure have decided to indulge themselves in social engineering. This is beyond their role. Town planning turned into a monster where we are told how to live and where to live and what to drive, aspects of our lives which are beyond their remit. Cars are part of this.
And as community sizes increase, the traditional Federal Government, State government, local council is becoming more and more removed from the day to day reality for most people. Town planners have become jailers.
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Jeez !.. i hope most of your comments are better researched !
Lets go over the data yet again…..
14 million cars on Au roads..
Average miles driven is 35 km per day each car…
A typical EV uses between 150 .200 Watthrs per km, so thats 5.2 – 7.0 kWhs per day
..lets say 6.0 kWh per EV, per day , for simplicity.
For the entire 14 million EV fleet, that would be 84 million kWhs per day.. or 84 GWhrs
As a comparison, Australias average daily electricty cosumption is currently about 550 GWhrs !
So , 100% EV conversion would represent 15.5%. of total electricity consumption.
31
Your “15.5%. of total electricity consumption” assumes it is distributed over a 24 hr period.
As most people don’t fit that mold, it is more likely 31% to 46.5% of total AU generation.
Unless, of course, your solution involves telling everyone how to live their lives.
Less than 10% of AU vehicles are EVs. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-31/ev-sales-surge-with-over-forty-five-thousand-sold-this-year/102669582
So, you must mean that if grid load went to 100% EV, then AU would need 10 times the grid they have now.
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Add in the capacity factor of ruinables and double the current capacity is believable.
David did make one error – he referred to ‘dispatchable’ capacity which ruinables are not
50
I don’t believe I referred to ruinables as dispatchable, John. Obviously they are random power generators.
20
Edited
20
):
Ten times the power currently for EVs would be an approximation doubling of total current grid production.
30
You of all people know better than that, Lance. ,
It doesnt matter how it is distributed, the total consumption remains at 15.5%.
And i did not even allow for those EVangilists that might use their own solar power to recharge with,..reducing that demand on the grid !
“Smart” metering, demand management, TOD costs, etc will manipulate the demand profile.
Check your facts !….read that link again !
There are less than 1.0% of EVs on Australias roads !..(<200,000 At last count !)
…..and i am willing to bet it will not be more than 30-40% before 2050…
So NO , ! 100% EVs will still only need 15% (or less) of current grid demand.
And, plenty of time to rebuild our grid anyway with Nuclear, coal, Gas, or any other power source !
20
So now the woke virtue signalers, who bought in early to the EV craze, are starting to consider their next purchase. Finding out there is no market for second hand EVs should not be a surprise.
Firstly, to buy an EV second hand, you need to know about the battery condition, but there is no way to determine this! Did the previous owner slow charge or use superfast charging stations? Did the previous owner repeatedly do full power drains to demonstrate the awesome acceleration abilities of EVs? Did the previous owner always drain the battery to zero charge before recharging?
All these behaviours have detrimental effects on battery life, the opposite of the behaviours recommended for extending the life of your EV:
https://evse.com.au/blog/ev-battery-life-electric-car/
For a second or third owner, there is no way to determine how much life is left in an EV’s battery! And the market already knows that battery replacement is simply not economically viable!
But there is more! Buying a second hand EV is still limited to those who are able to charge it conveniently. That means a second or third owner needs to pay for the installation of a home charger for their EV. But, as luck would have it, standardised chargers for EVs have yet to become common.
Consider the dilemma for second hand EV owners! Does anyone sell second hand chargers? And do you have a mate who can install them into your house at mates’ rates? Otherwise, second hand owners are up for the full cost of a brand new EV charger and its installation. That might be one thing that really puts a dampener on the second hand EV market.
So now, those woke virtue signalers are facing the reality of asset depreciation. Lucky most of them were wealthy, and can afford to throw away money for their woke obsessions. For the rest of us, a vehicle is the second most expensive asset we will ever buy. Considerations of asset depreciation are more significant, especially for those who never buy off the show room floor.
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An EV “is the second most expensive asset we will ever buy”
First house, 1974, cost less than many EVs.
100
What would it, the house, cost now though John?
70
I bought a house in Novocastria for $7,500 in about 1971.
50
I paid $10k in ’68. Sold it in 2010 and without a development premium it would have fetched a qtr mil.
Had I bought in Syd I would have pocketed $1m+. There are downsides to laid-back tropical living. lol
40
A quick search on my local FB Marketplace, brought up about 50 such chargers for various EV makes and charge rates,…all priced between $100-$400 . ?
Installation ?…you would have to use a licienced sparky !
But remember all EVs can be charged (slowly) from a regular 10 A power outlet..plug and play !
00
All those shiny new inexpensive BYDs sitting dockside and at an untaxed rate of less than half the price of the competition. What could possibly go wrong.
170
I would buy one of them for $2000 – at least that would take it off their storage facility
50
If you chose one with V2H function, that would make a very economical home battery storage too !
00
The next woke poseur and virtue signaler trend will be “green” (sic) hydrogen vehicles.
You know, that woke fuel that’s even a nightmare for NASA to use.
Or maybe it will be ammonia powered vehicles. The “other,” woke nightmare fuel.
For the subsidy harvesters, there’s plenty to be mined from either type of fuel.
https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/production/australia-unveils-new-green-hydrogen-subsidy-for-every-kilo-of-h2-produced-over-a-ten-year-period/2-1-1643884
https://ammoniaenergy.org/articles/government-industry-collaboration-to-boost-ammonia-production-in-australia/
150
Some “green” (sic) hydrogen projects are so monumentally stupid that they could only happen in Sicktoria and/or Australia.
E.g. “Green” hydrogen from coal with the CO2 sequestered in Bass Strait.
In that case (link below), I think the only reason Japan is involved is because the CO2 is not their problem (it doesn’t matter anyway). And the project will probably harvest attractive taxpayer subsidies, assuming it goes ahead. But perhaps the project is too ridiculous, even for Australia?
30
Why not just keep running the lowest cost source of electricity in Australia – Latrobe Valley Brown Coal and store the CO2 “in nearby Bass Strait”.?
Am I missing something here?
120
CCS has to be the the epitome of stupidity in the whole energy transition. Just build a big dummy pipe out of the Loy Yang smokestack which extends down into the earth alongside. Paint a big green “ CO2” on the pipe with a downward pointing arrow. Make sure people can see it from the road nearby. Doesn’t actually do anything but would fool all the climatistas.
80
What you are missing is that Japan has no native fuel resources other than Nuclear,..and that is still a sensitive subject for them.
Japan needs to source all its energy from overseas, for transport, electricity generation, heating etc etc
Japan sees Hydrogen as one form of green transportable fuel that they can import to fill the gaps of oil, coal, gas etc.
20
I’m fairly certain that Bass Strait sequesters lots of carbon dioxide naturally anyway.
00
I’m fairly certain that Bass Strait sequesters carbon dioxide naturally anyway.
00
Our fire service has dabbled in BEV fire trucks and have found they are not fit for purpose.
We have a fleet of 300 ICE “fire trucks” currently in service.
FRNSW has just ordered 4 new Aerial Pumpers (trucks). Their projected service life is 20-25 years.
They will be in operation till 2048. All are powered by a big reliable turbo diesel.
So in the decades to come, firefighters will continue to operate and drive their “fit for purpose” turbo diesel fire trucks…
All whilst our Govs’ try to force you, the motorist, into an EV…..
Makes sense doesn’t it?
180
Can’t have fire trucks that go on fire https://www.bitchute.com/video/DM0rzGP7fcnN/
20
Nice many people may be, but governments are not nice.
Governments which force people to accept a technology that is not yet fit for purpose (and may never be) are particulary not nice.
150
Did we hear about this?
“Australian Border Force Turns Back Boatload of Chinese Nationals”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/06/16/australian-border-force-turns-back-boatload-of-chinese-nationals/
60
Were they driving EVs?
60
No, but they were escorted by a boat load of Australian lawyers.
140
Bushmasters with pink overalls for the crew.
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/land/army-unveils-electric-bushmaster
20
*Battlefield charging points not included.
90
Brilliant! An environmentally friendly military vehicle. Make friends, not war. Be kind to the battlefield. Laugh at IEDs as entertainment. And charm the locals with gay outfits. Perfect for the Middle East. Why not paint it pink as well?
And no impact on the environment. Carbon neutral, if the army can install enough windmills in No Mans Land.
Who let the loonies into the Department of Defence?
100
Some of the most effective wepons in the Ukraine war are EVs !
..Flying ones that is..
Cheap multirotor EV drones armed with simple mortar shells that can be dropped or flown into targets..knocking out tanks and artilliary units as well as barrak buildings.
Both sides are using them by the hundred , daily.
20
That’s a new type of warfare. We are heading to pilotless fighters too.
10
There are people who will pay good money for rebuilt air-cooled Porsches instead of buying a brand new water-cooled 911s
This concept might be the way of the future – making ICE cars last longer and saving all the CO2 required to make a brand new EV with a life of only 8 years until the battery warranty expires
Singer Group, Inc. (Singer) restores and reimagines 1989 to 1994 Porsche 911s, based on the 964 chassis at the direction of its clients
https://singervehicledesign.com/
These air-cooled 911 will hold there value far more than any EV that Porsche can flog.
Porsche’s electric rival to Tesla has lost up to $100,000 in value
In just four years, the Taycan Turbo high-performance, German EV has rapidly depreciated.
https://qz.com/porsche-tesla-taycan-turbo-ev-1851285396#:
I have a 60 year old Mustang V8 convertible that is still going strong and will easily outlast me!
100
EVs! All colour no substance! Okay for a second car and or motorised shopping trolly! Range anxiety will be the next trendy phobia.
50
Until the second car catches fire (thermal runaway) in the double garage taking down your house with it!
80
Sounds like they’ve solved the battery weight problem
Government already planning aerial speed cameras.
20
I thought Teslas could already fly.
Elon’s personal Tesla is now 120 million km from earth and travelling away at 11.5 km/s.
https://www.whereisroadster.com/
30
And doing that without batteries. 🙂
10
I love the reference to polar bears. When talking to friends and family and the the topic of climate change comes up ( rarely) I will comment “ don’t worry, the polar bears are just fine”. I‘ve used the same comment to a couple of people who have raised an interest in buying EV’s.
90
“ don’t worry, the polar bears are just fine”.
When was one last seen at Mawson?
OK. I’ll sit in the corner.
40
Hitler tries to prevent climate change (parody)
https://youtu.be/Jmyfl7ILPD0?si=BQDVqe_U2DghMhpE
Any similarity to batsh#t crazy totalitarian climate nutjobs IS 100% intentional! 😆
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On the front page of the Australian, Twiggy Forrest is doing a similar line on Duttons’s idea to stop major renewables progress. Part Hitler, part Greta. How dare he! Twiggy needs that money. Especially after his divorce and hiring Daniel Andrews as liason with the CCP. They need Build Your Dream electric cars to succeed. And the Chinese windmills to power them.
100
The National Socialists really did start the ball rolling with “renewables”, even “green hydrogen”.
Today’s socialists are just completing what the National Socialists started. And they use exactly the same BS.
Also see:
Green Tyranny: Exposing the Totalitarian Roots of the Climate Industrial Complex Book by Rupert Darwall, 2018
100
E.V. sales are in mighty big trouble,
As car buyers are bursting their bubble,
And though offers should entice,
Bargain hunters at half price,
Most would choose an I.C.E. and pay double.
140
Who has been watching the Drive series “The Lap”? A couple of clowns called Trent and Dom Driving a Kia EV around Australia. Last week they had to cover 300+ km across the Nullarbor to reach the next charge point, they raved how fantastic the sponsors EV was despite having to turn off the A/C and cruise at 90 km/h to make it with 10 km range left. Imagine, windows up no A/C for four hours across the Nullarbor.
What a joke EV’s are in this country.
170
As predictable, The ABC disagrees. Of course. They are pushing diesel generators on the Nullabor using left over deep fryer oil to power the engines to power the cars.
But you have to wonder where you get fish and chips on the nullabor. Bruce Pascoe said desert aborigines were an advanced race but I am surprised that they had invented deep friers as well as fish and chips.
91
Top temp of 17 on the Nullabor today.
11
But still no fish.
00
Another massive increase in electricity rates just announced by Momentum Energy in NSW. Off peak rates now gone, memory-holed. Shoulder rate now covers the entire night and has been increased by 23% !!!
Peak rates up 2%, and time has been shifted from 2 – 8pm to 3 – 9pm, capturing much more every day usage. Wow!
60
I’m glad we’re getting more windmills because we all know that’s the cheapest form of electricity known to man … and Australia wants to have more windmills than anyone else on the planet.
/sarc
51
And what’s great about windmills and the solar is the certainty. When there is no wind and the sun doesn’t shine. You have nothing.
A thousand times nothing is still nothing. So you have to have fossil fuel to keep the elevators moving and wasted every cent on windmills and solar panels.
20
The same with electric cars. When the battery is flat, you are not going anywhere soon. And there’s no point walking to the nearest farmhouse.
20