By Jo Nova
The monster called “climate change turbulence” is an imaginary phantom
At any moment there are something like 10,000 boxes cruising in the air that know when they strike turbulence. Rumors are that these are even staffed with sentient beings. If Climate Change was making turbulence worse, you’d think pilots would have noticed? But instead of reporting what pilots said, which is that nothing has changed, almost all the media coverage about turbulence comes from models or cherry picked reanalysis of angels dancing at 197 hectopascals over the North Atlantic.
The European Space Agency even puts sensors on planes. With 40 million flights per year, tracked by radar and monitored by satellite, and reported by pilots as well, if there were trends in clear air turbulence on passenger planes, there would be a mountain of data, and we’d hear all about it. Instead all they have are modeled guesstimates and slightly worse conditions over the North Atlantic.
Pilots report that incidents of air turbulence are the same now as they always were
Paul Homewood has found the US National Transportation Safety Board Report, and actual pilot reports (PIREP data). Basically, in thirty years of flights and after more than half of mankinds total fossil fueled emissions have been emitted, there’s no trend at all.
To be fair, it could just be that we’re getting better at predicting turbulence so pilots are better at avoiding it. But if we’re going to headline newspapers with scary stories of flight turbulence (and if we actually care about people) the most important data might be the stuff that comes from planes.
The Australian ABC blamed it all on the Ogre du Jour:
They found a Professor Troy Todd Lane at Melbourne Uni who talks about studies which come from Reading University. One found more clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic in the last 40 years. But it also found less turbulence over South East Asia (see the figure from Prosser el al below). Using Believer-Correlation-Science — if climate change causes more turbulence, then it also causes less. Looks like extra emissions of CO2 saved lives on the Singapore Airlines flight. By the same reasoning, burn oil and protect planes in South East Asia? Clearly the ABC team didn’t look at the paper, and also clearly, they didn’t ask Prof Lane any difficult questions. What do we pay them or him for — witchcraft? “See the tea-leaves on the map…”
Furthermore, when the ABC says “our most common flight paths” (headlined above) they’re not talking about our Australian flights. Who is this “our”?
It’s like there is no world outside the North Atlantic.
The change in ERA5’s 197 hPa annual-mean diagnostic-mean moderate-or-greater (MOG) clear-air turbulence (CAT) probability over 1979–2020, showing (a) the absolute change and (b) the relative change. The changes are diagnosed from the linear trend. Stippling indicates statistical significance at the p = 0.05 level, according to a two-sided Wald test (Fahrmeir et al., 2022) applied to the absolute change. | Prosser et al
The Prosser et al paper was deceptively headlined “Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades” but it could as easily have said the opposite. They dismissed the pilot reports with barely one line:
Pilot reports (PIREPs) have a longer record, but are not quantitative, and the geographical distribution of CAT based on PIREPs is limited in spatial and temporal extent (Wolff & Sharman, 2008). — Prosser et al 2023
Supposedly the point of the Prosser paper was to help aircraft and passengers, but actual reports from pilots: “who cares?”
The other paper quoted by the ABC was a 2017 study also from the University of Reading, and it was nothing but climate modeling and magical unverified, unvalidated, fiction:
A 2017 study predicted that severe turbulence will become two to three times more common over the North Atlantic by 2050-2080 because of climate change. However, the same study predicted a smaller increase of 50 per cent for severe turbulence over Australia.
Right there in the abstract, the 2017 paper admits its all games with calculators — no data needed
It’s pure fantasy extracted from models we know can’t predict cloud formation at all, or water vapor at the heights that planes fly at. Their universal predictions of increasing humidity in the upper troposphere are legendary failures. The missing hot spot was called “a fingerprint” of man-made climate change right up until 28 million weatherballoons showed it didn’t happen.
Reading Uni has a lot to answer for. One of the most prominent scientists pushing predictions of turbulent doom is Paul Williams, who wrote the 2017 paper and at least two further ones. He predicted a 55% rise in air turbulence over the North Atlantic. But Rupa Subramanya in The Free Press, writes that extra data wiped out the trend:
In 2017, he co-authored a study that received a lot of attention, because it predicted that a rise in atmospheric CO2 could double, or even triple, incidences of severe clear air turbulence. He also published a much-publicized paper in 2022 arguing that wind speed changes over the North Atlantic had increased in the last few decades—the basis for arguing that clear air turbulence will get worse. And in another widely reported paper, published in 2023, Williams predicted a 55 percent increase in clear air turbulence over the North Atlantic.
But how solid is his link between clear air turbulence and climate change? Earlier this year, Williams co-authored a letter to the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, which walked back the findings of his 2022 paper. If we include new data, the letter explained, the increase in wind speeds above the North Atlantic ceases to be “statistically significant.”
Where were the headlines New data shows the professor was wrong?
Climate models will be useful when they figure out convection, clouds, rain, humidity, storms…
Professor Lane says most of the turbulence in the tropical regions comes from thunderstorms, which are intensely more intense I tell you.
He lives by a kindergarten climate rule where “energy = catastrophe”, thus:
“With a warmer atmosphere, the atmosphere can hold more water, which can lead to those most intense thunderstorms being more intense with climate change. As those thunderstorms become more intense, they can also generate more intense turbulence.”
Except that the biggest-storms-of-all are not more intense. Since the Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Energy Index started in 1970 CO2 has risen from an ideal 325ppm to an apocalytic 425ppm and the global population has doubled. Fifty years of reckless “pollution” have been and gone and yet cyclones are still the same?
![2024 Accumulated Cyclone Energy [ACE]](https://joannenova.com.au/wp-content/global_major_freq-ace-index-2024m.gif)
Prof Lane doesn’t appear to realize the water vapor hasn’t made it to the upper troposphere and even if it had, “more energy” is not always a disaster. There’s not as much energy in Antarctica, but no one wants to live there, and we hear they still have storms.
Details matter. The lower troposphere has gained water vapor from the ocean as the system warmed, but it hasn’t increased in the upper troposphere where the modelers desperately need it to rise (and where those planes fly). The extra water vapor means the amount of energy held in the air is larger, but does that mean convection has increased or become more stable? After all, it’s not the total energy that creates instability, it’s the difference between two regions that causes the chaos.
REFERENCE
Prosser et al (2023) Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Past Four Decades, 08 June 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103814
Williams, P.D. Increased light, moderate, and severe clear-air turbulence in response to climate change. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 34, 576–586 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6268-2
The structural failure of commercial planes due to turbulence is extremely rare – one notable example in 2001 was due to pilot error
American Airlines Flight 587 was a regularly scheduled international passenger flight from John F. Kennedy International Airport to Las Américas International Airport in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic. On November 12, 2001, the Airbus A300B4-605R flying the route crashed into the neighborhood of Belle Harbor on the Rockaway Peninsula of Queens, New York City, shortly after takeoff. All 260 people aboard the plane (251 passengers and 9 crew members) were killed, as well as five people on the ground
The flight data recorder (FDR) showed that the events leading to the crash began when the aircraft hit wake turbulence from the JAL flight in front of it at 9:15:36. In response to the turbulence, the pilot Molin moved the rudder from the right to the left and back again in quick succession from 9:15:52, causing sideslip until the lateral force caused composite lugs that attached the vertical stabilizer to fail at 9:15:58.
Flying in commercial aircraft is still the safest form of transport, just as nuclear energy is the safest means of producing electricity.
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It’s hard to understand where all the energy comes from.
This post and the previous one on Auroras are great reads for those of us wishing to expand our understanding of the real world.
The author combines a mix of real science, real analysis and and penetrating putdown that contrasts so sharply with the swamp like excrescescence coming from politicians and the lamestream media.
Thank you Jo.
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Agreed
Jo does a fantastic job in reporting and commenting on those things the MSM refuses to touch. Thank you Jo, your efforts, skills, knowledge and perceptions are very much appreciated.
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Well said. I’ll second that.
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She is a master of the targeted sarcasm put down. Humorous but pointed and totally understandable while highlighting the absolute absurdity of some statements put out by “climate scientists” and others.
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Climate change causes pilots not to notice increased turbulence. See Journal of Scienciness, Summer ed (hottest ever) 2024.
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When this problem was mentioned on another blog, a number of people-including myself said they had experienced something similar-mine was also on a Singapore airlines flight in Malaysia/Thailand.
The recent flight when someone was killed was unlucky timing, as people were moving about as everyone started to wake and breakfast was being served. So lots of things to fly around and lots of people not strapped in.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/singapore-airlines-turbulence-british-man-killed-b2548750.html
We also dropped several thousand feet and the oxygen masks popped out. I do wonder if perhaps pilots were more basically skilful back then (the 70’s) in as much there would have been far fewer electronic devices to aid them, so they would fly more by skill and experience. I also wonder if planes were more robust .
Since the 70’s the number of flights has grown exponentially but the number of flights experiencing such extreme turbulence has not increased in proportion-probably onboard instruments and weather forecasts provide better warning.
I have mentioned here that I have recently hired 2 cars-one in Austria and one in Switzerland. They drove me mad by their incessant beeping and constant attempts to over ride my own driving-safety assistance I think they called it. I did wonder how new drivers could possibly build up any real skills and experience when their car was always telling them what to do. Could it be the same on airplanes?
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Machines generally are now designed using Finite Element Analysis (FEM), which has allowed lighter, ‘more efficient’ designs, but quite possibly less robust. Prior to this, engineers did their calculations, and added in margins, based on their direct experience. There are good examples of this in the design with large mining machines such as draglines.
With regard to operational control, as highlighted by the investigation into the early Boeing 737 Max’s that fell out of the sky for no apparent reason, it is now possible to make a plane with less than optimal aerodynamics to fly, using computers to control the plane (fly-by-wire). The Boeing 737 Maxs’ were fitted with significantly larger engines to catch up with their EC rival, which had to be mounted well forward of the previous position used in the proven and trusted design of previous 737’s, adversely changing the aerodynamic characteristics. Unfortunately, they did not spend sufficient time on the design of the computers required to cope with this. Most modern planes, even the small single prop ones, now have varying degrees of fly-by-wire technology, which not always works as it should, not dissimilar to your experience of driving in Austria and Switzerland.
Further, there is a world-wide shortage of pilots, which is not likely to be overcome in the short term, and a huge amount of experience retiring at the older end, which does not bode well for flying safety.
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Very interesting.
In effect our machinery is too clever for its own good. Add in it being less robust, probably less practical flying experience by those needing to control these too clever by half machines, and as you say, flying may not be as safe as it once was
. So we will need ever cleverer machines and software to compensate for all those negative factors .
Presumably we are heading towards AI and the eventual phasing out of the human components including ground crew and pilots and on board staff
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“I have mentioned here that I have recently hired 2 cars-one in Austria and one in Switzerland. They drove me mad by their incessant beeping and constant attempts to over ride my own driving-safety assistance I think they called it.”
My exact experience hiring a Hyundai I30 in Canberra a couple of years back, it was very annoying, the only annoying feature it didn’t have was the wacky ‘engine stop’ feature, I managed to turn most of the junk off while driving, which isn’t a good idea but it’s all back on next time you start the engine.
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Whoa tony,
There’s been no suggestion of pilot error or of mechanical fault in this latest incident. The weather radar on board cannot detect “clear air turbulence ” so the first pilots can know about it is as it happens – unless an earlier aircraft experienced it and gave a radio alert in time. And CATs were known about even on my first international flight in the late 1960s.
The advice has always been there: “Keep your seat belt fastened unless you need to move about the cabin”.
As you point out, this incident was worsened by the fact that it occurred while breakfast was being served and lots of things and people were not tied down.
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It is reported that he died of a suspected cardiac arrest – https://www.somersetlive.co.uk/news/local-news/west-country-man-died-after-9298231?utm_source=mynewsassistant.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=embedded_search_item_mobile – may have been more a dicky ticker and fright than the turbulence directly (of COVID / with COVID)….
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Are the smaller private jets at more at risk from turbulence?
John Kerry is very brave risking turbulence to stop turbulence.
At least the anthropogenic turbulence.
Can Scottish people pronounce ‘anthropogenic turbulence’?
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Just ask a Scottish person to say the phrase – “Pass the fork and knife” very quickly and then listen to how it sounds. LOL.
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Aircraft fly in a chaotic, turbulent atmosphere.
It’s always been that way. Nothing has changed.
Back in the day people didn’t think turbulence was comment-worthy (unless particularly bad), it was expected. Now Leftist propagandists tell us turbulence is due to “climate change” and unnatural and everyone has to stop flying except Leftists who fly to Klimate Krisis Konferences in private jets.
Always wear a seat belt in flight, even when you don’t have to.
Aircraft are designed to withstand turbulence much more than humans are. The aircraft will be fine, the person without a seatbelt will not be.
Generally, Australia has relatively little turbulence and some of the best flying conditions in the world due to usually moderate weather over the entire continent. Australia has moderate weather due to separation from the southern polar region and mostly being separated from the tropics. When Australians occasionally experience turbulence it may come as a shock, especially for the feeble-minded who will blame “climate change”.
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Totally “random” serious turbulence interactions are relatively rare.Oddly enough, pilots talk to air-traffic controllers AND often to each other, via a nifty invention called “radio”.
In the good-old days of unpressurized, piston-engined, propeller-driven jobs, the “weather” was mainly noticeable because aircraft flew THROUGH the weather. Now, they fly above it. The wonders of modern technology!
South East Asia has some interesting turbulence phenomena, but I suspect that is due to the natural atmospheric conditions and these being affected by the wild jumble of land and sea on some flight-paths. Mysterious pilots and vanishing airliners, notwithstanding.
The more adventurous may have traveled in military transports like the classic C-130. Not equipped with comfy reclining seats, earplugs are issued before takeoff and definitely no “trolly Dollies” on “Wallaby Airlines”. The early Hercs were unpressurized and simply bulldozed their way through the weather. The later “Gucci’ ones are faster, pressurized and a little quieter (but not much). They can operate ABOVE the weather; flying to Hawaii you get to see a LOT of the “big, blue wet thing, except when it is obscured by eight octas of the “big, white fluffy thing”.
All these concurrent, outrageous fear campaigns do NOT have to be based on reality. Their SOLE purpose is to “scare” people. Scared people are MUCH more malleable than robust people.
It is ALL, and has only EVER, been about the acquisition of immense power and the comprehensive abuse of that power.
A useful primer on the matter is a book titled. “Scared to Death”. It deals with a serious of “public’ scares that had precisely ZERO foundation, but which were used to “herd” the cattle of the general populace and to justify huge expansions of power in the hands of the usual suspects.
https://www.amazon.com/Scared-Death-Global-Warming-Costing/dp/0826476201
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Flew Melbourne to Sydney on a RAAF Hercules C-130 during the pilots strike in 1989. Boy, was that fun!!
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Bruce writes this:
Radio use in aircraft here in Australia was finally mandated in 1938, after the famous Stinson crash in Lamington National Park in February of 1937, and that crash also dealt with flying conditions in weather as well.
That Stinson crash and how the wreckage was located by Bernard O’Reilly was always something that interested me. The O’Reillys own a wonderful mountain top resort on Green Mountains, and I have visited and stayed there a number of times since the late 60s, so I was aware of the whole thing with this Stinson crash.
I detailed it over three parts at my home site, but the best information is in the last Part linked below.
The Stinson crashed in foul weather on its way from Brisbane to Sydney, and no one was looking for it in the area where it did crash, and Bernard O’Reilly ended up finding the wreck in the rain forest jungle, and it led to the rescue of the two survivors. The fact that O’Reilly ‘knew’ the weather situation and the conditions with respect to that was instrumental in his location of the downed plane.
There were many findings, reinforced many years later. One of the findings led to radio then being mandated for air travel.
All those things which happened later are of interest, especially the weather situation, considering O’Reilly was aware of all this and it was back in 1937.
I won’t detail it ALL here, so read the article where I summarise the end results of it all.
BERNARD O’REILLY AND THE STINSON RESCUE. (Part 3)
Tony.
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Tony,
In a pilot strike in the late 1970s I flew in the seat behind Sir John Proud in a 10-seater twin from Rocky to Mascot. Weather was low cloud, patchy heavy rain, rough. We flew directly over O’Reilly’s about 1000 feet up. (Of course we as his employees and friends were quite familiar with the Stimson crash and most of us had already driven the winding road privately beforehand.)
One can only guess at what Sir John was thinking as we flew that second time. He said nothing. What a fine person he was, in all aspects of life that we saw and shared.
Geoff S
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David, This may be of interest.
I am not an expert in experiencing flight turbulence.
So I asked someone who is.
My wife..
She is a flight attendant with 29 years of flying both long and short haul. Av- 120hrs flight time per month.
She said there was no increase in “severe” turbulence. She hasn’t noticed it.
She said mild-medium turbulence is common. Most of the time occurring whilst climbing or descending from altitude through cells the aircraft can’t avoid.
She has experienced only 1 episode of “extreme” severe turbulence, where the infight service trolleys and passengers were separated from the cabin floor.
(3 were injured).
That occurred on a flight circa 2003-2005. roughly 20+ years ago.
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Depends on perspective – one person’s rough air is lift to a sailplane pilot
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All that intense atmospheric flatulence – whoopsie! turbulence – is also causing seven days and seven nights of SNOW for Wickedtoria’s Mt Hotham (Coldham?) ski area, starting today and continuing for the next week… according to BoM’s Alpine Tea-Leaf Reading page: believe it or not!
Meanwhile, as northern India hits 50C, Antarctica hits -70C, providing a mean temperature of minus 10 degrees for planet Earth – ouchies! Where’s that existential runaway ‘global’ heating when you need it, Simon Gee Fitzroy?
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Good one : SGF.
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Not nice, but the ABC grabs the “Climate Change” opportunity while the Indian authorities query the reliability of the number:
” The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said it was examining the data as well as the sensors that recorded Mungeshpur’s temperature, which was an outlier compared to other stations. ”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-30/india-delhi-heatwave-records-temperature-climate-change/103911178
Cheers,
Dave B
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It is in the Atlantic.
Also, remember this?
Also, could you link to what you mean by “providing a mean temperature of minus 10 degrees for planet Earth”. This seems to disagree with that assessment https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world
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Professor Todd Lane apparently, not Troy Lane.
[Thanks PEter! Fixed. – Jo]
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The Melbourne Uni link does go to Todd Lane, not Troy Lane so just a simple mistake.
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‘Climate models will be useful when they figure out convection, clouds, rain, humidity, storms…’
But they do…
Those versions are called weather models, and yes, there is a version tuned for air travel, which is the main reason why aircraft are able to avoid most turbulence
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Are you saying that pilot experience is biased by using technology to avoid turbulence which they therefore don’t experience? And that this has changed over time so the temporal data is affected by technological developments?
You’re amazing Peter. How did you come up with that when no one else here thought of it?
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Dunno Gee Aye, nmaybe he read the post where I suggested that?
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yeah weird
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No, not that. Like mariners, pilots tend to use favourable winds wherever they can, even changing altitude if necessary – that is the additional information, wind direction by altitude, that the more 3D atmospheric maps use.
But the main point remains- climate models do not detail weather, which is why I provided the quote.
It would be using an old time globe map to navigate through your nearest` city.
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The main reason why passenger jets can avoid atmospheric turbulence is because they have a weather radar. That helps the pilots avoid thunderstorms.
However it is less useful for avoidance of clear air turbulence.
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Clear air turbulence gets reported by a pilot and the area can be avoided by the next pilot.
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“…intense thunderstorms being more intense with climate change. As those thunderstorms become more intense, they can also generate more intense turbulence.”
Is kamala harris writing his schtick?
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The only thing that has changed is the huge wind farms creating turbulence. and the huge solar farms with their black heat sinks – unintended consequences!
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I seem to recall that glider pilots seek the naturally occurring hot air currents out for the benefits of an atmospheric lift to extend the duration and thrill of flying sans engine. I’m also reminded of the albatross that can remain airborne for weeks relying solely on warm air currents. Whereas in the olden days, pilots learned how to fly and cope with ever-changing weather elements modern commercial passenger aircraft fly higher and faster and rely on electronics to warn of impending catastrophic potential. TV reenactments based on “black box” data often depict flight deck disarray for the first few minutes while the pilots assess the situation and institute recommended remedies that may or may not work. Let’s not forget the fallibility of computerised flying Mt Erebus for instance!
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That Singapore Airlines plane bound for Singapore from London blundered into or very near a line of storms over Myanmar, they obviously hit a severe downdraft component of the unsettled weather, hard to believe but some pilots still have trouble decyphering what their onboard colour weather radar is telling them.
It has proved how robust the Boeing 777 aircraft is, the wings stayed on.
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“I have mentioned here that I have recently hired 2 cars-one in Austria and one in Switzerland. They drove me mad by their incessant beeping and constant attempts to over ride my own driving-safety assistance I think they called it.”
My exact experience hiring a Hyundai I30 in Canberra a couple of years back, it was very annoying, the only annoying feature it didn’t have was the wacky ‘engine stop’ feature, I managed to turn most of the junk off while driving, which isn’t a good idea but it’s all back on next time you start the engine.
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I suppose you can’t blame Williams, Prosser , Lane et al because they now have their 5 minutes of fame. When the Singapore Airlines incident happened Mr Williams must have thought “ here’s my big chance”. Got all his talking points out, probably whipped up a new PowerPoint preso and put the feelers out to some “ science” journalists. (I use that term loosely). It certainly continues the great climate legacy of University of Reading – weren’t they the ones involved with Climategate?
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I’ll answer my own question – not Reading, it was University of East Anglia. (I was out by about 250 km)
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These so called climate related disasters are just more of their BS and FRAUD.
The yappers at their ABC told us this morning that a new poll has found that young people are worrying more about the climate and some had trouble sleeping.
So why don’t the yappers look up the data over the last 100 years and tell the ignorant young fools to stop worrying?
Since 1920 deaths from extreme weather events have dropped by 98% in 2022 even though the population has increased from UNDER 2 billion then and OVER 8.1 billion today.
When will these stupid donkeys wake up?
https://x.com/BjornLomborg/status/1609568091846967306/photo/1
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Here’s the OWI Data link to death rates from extreme weather events etc since 1900 and the data rates are deaths per 100,000 of the global population.
Note the huge drop in deaths since 1920 and since 1960.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/decadal-average-death-rates-from-natural-disasters
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Climate change turpitude does appear to be increasing at the ABC.
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Just did some quick research on Jo Lauder – the ABC’s intrepid climate reporter. When I say research, a quick Google. Basically she’s the Laura Tingle of Climate change reporting. Even has a podcast called “Who’s Gonna Save Us?”. She hates oil, loves EV’s and would appear to believe everything any climate researcher ever produces.
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I keep hearing, as an explanation for why climate change was the cause of every disaster, is that global warming super charges the atmosphere.
So I put a blanket under the hood of my twenty year old car and guess what? It just overheated.
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‘Climate Change’ and turbulence – another furphy. — But wait…there is cause to celebrate we have a new acronym in the lexicon of the climate luvvies!! … C.C.T.
No doubt, with the media beat up following the Singapore airlines ‘air drop’ the IPCC has fired up an entirely new department of modelers, feverishly banging away to model ‘future catastrophic CCT events’. I have absolutely no doubt the new sparkling CCT models will spew out even more ‘proof’ of a direct link to oil, gas and coal and the frequency of clear air turbulence…Yippee!!
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For those interested, I wrote an article on aircraft weather radar in April 2015.
https://www.siliconchip.com.au/Issue/2015/April/Airborne+Weather+Radar%3A+Keeping+Aircraft+Safe
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I’d like to read it David but looks like it’s “pay walled”?
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Sorry about that Penguinite. Some articles are, others not. If I’m logged in I can’t tell which ones are which. I think some pages are visible though, aren’t they? Unfortunately, I don’t decide…
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In other words, having it both ways.
The climate scammers and hoaxers can’t lose using such “logic.”
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Water vapour in the upper troposphere may have increased with the Hunga Tonga eruption. We know it reached the stratosphere and one model predicts a change in the weather.
‘For the northern half of Australia, our model predicts colder and wetter than usual winters up to about 2029. For North America, it predicts warmer than usual winters, while for Scandinavia, it again predicts colder than usual winters.
‘The volcano seems to change the way some waves travel through the atmosphere. And atmospheric waves are responsible for highs and lows, which directly influence our weather.
‘It is important here to clarify that this is only one study, and one particular way of investigating what impact the Hunga Tonga eruption might have on our weather and climate. Like any other climate model, ours is not perfect.’ (Martin Jucker, lecturer in Atmospheric Dynamics at NSWU) Down to Earth.
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That looks a lot like what I posted yesterday. Maybe provide a link so others can read for themselves. Original paper linked in the article.?
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I missed that, nevertheless the big takeout is how temperatures are going to remain on this high plateau for a decade. Not caused by CO2.
https://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_April_2024_v6_20x9-scaled.jpg
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‘This means that the incredibly high temperatures we have measured for about a year now cannot be attributed to the Hunga Tonga eruption,’ Jucker said.
ENSO is neutral and leaning towards La Nina, if temps remain high then Jucker is wrong.
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My understanding was that it increased the water vaopur content of the atmosphere by 10% – given that water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas by far – that would have had substantial affect and probably caused the uptick in temps recorded by UAH satellite.
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Read the article. Oh yeah he didn’t link one and my post is in moderation.
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Climate change : if you torture the data enough it will confess to anything . It has confessed to the impossible on many occasions . They are still trying to ramp up the hysteria.
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First of all it was ‘Global Warming’. That didn’t work. Then came ‘Climate Change’. LOL as the climate has always changed.
Then some dope said ‘The Oceans are Boiling’ so I guess that its now ‘Global Boiling’. As today is Friday when I have fish and chips then maybe it should be ‘Global Frying’.
Alarmists on the loose.
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You Rotten Climate Denier
Ocean Temperature hits 100-degrees
https://fortune.com/2023/07/26/florida-ocean-temperature-hits-100-degree-hot-tub-levels-record-hottest-seawater-measured/
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Back in the 70’s I was in a Vickers Super VC-10 attempting a landing at Delhi. The plane was bouncing up and down like a cork in a severe thunderstorm with driving rain and blasting cross winds. The cockpit cabin door was flapping back and forward and I could see the pilots fighting for control. I could see the black rubber touchdown marks on the runway as we were getting tossed around comming in. Most of us thought we were going to die pretty soon. But just as I was thinking “so this is how it all ends”, miraculously the skilled BOAC pilots pulled off a full power abort and we thankfully flew on to an alternate airport. We were all happy to be alive and I’m sure, as most rational people down through aviation history knew that dealing with bad weather is an accepted risk with flying. But these days, the way that climate change fanatics pontificate about flying getting more hazardous due to climate change is irrational. Given the recent history of climate change fanatacism and the many predictions of climate armageddon, you would assume that airline travel should have been abandoned as a mode of transport by now. But then, those predictions have all turned out to be duds.
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So are we experiencing dangerous or extreme climate change or a crisis or an emergency or even the UN SEC General’s BOILING OCEANS???
Well of course not and we know that we’re much safer today from extreme weather events than 100 years ago or 60 years ago. See my global data links to easily prove the point.
But what about deaths from Fires and Burns since 1990 to 2019. AGAIN population in 1990 5.3 billion and in 2019 about 7.7 billion or another 2.4 billion MORE people at RISK.
Global death rates from fires and burns in 1990 = 2.51 per 100 K people and yet in 2019 this had dropped to 1.44 deaths per 100 K people.
That’s a huge drop in just 30 years and again proves we’re much safer today than at any other time in Human history.
This only takes a few minutes online and certainly no need to WASTE 200 TRILLION $ for NOTHING or a ZERO return on their loony so called INVESTMENT. See Bloomberg’s experts etc for the 200 TRILLION $ quote.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fire-death-rates?tab=chart®ion=Europe&country=LBY~ESP~OWID_WRL~BRA~CHN~NZL~USA~AUS~RUS~CAN~European+Region+%28WHO%29~African+Region+%28WHO%29
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Another thought as no-one has mentioned it. The “professors” map shows red across the Atlantic precisely on the same highest density flight route in the world. Isn’t that a more plausible link than so-called climate change. Wake turbulence is very real and has been studied extensively to ensure separation of planes to allow it time to dissipate. If we go on adding more and more giant planes to that North Atlantic air route – could that have some resonance effects like the combining of sea wave peaks to create monster waves? Worth considering?
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It’s like there is no world outside the North Atlantic.
The educational “system” in North America is not renowned for its emphasis on geography – physical or economic.
Dribbles down to the micro scale as well. City folk…. Why worry about farms when the food is in the local store.
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AGAIN, even the John Kerry loony sometimes tells us the TRUTH about his so called dangerous co2 emissions.
And he’s made this confession a couple of times over the last few years.
IOW without the cooperation of China, India and the NON OECD developing countries we are definitely WASTING TRILLIONS of $ for a GUARANTEED ZERO return on Kerry’s loony TRILLIONS of $ investment.
IOW our ruinous OECD co2 reductions are POINTLESS. Big SURPRISE NOT.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/25/john-kerry-bidens-climate-czar-admits-u-s-co2-emission-cuts-are-pointless/
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Climate has always changed and always will. The irony is that curtailing the use of fossil fuels will have no significant effect on climate. Water vapor molecules have been increasing substantially faster than possible from just temperature increase and more than 5 times faster than CO2 molecules. https://watervaporandwarming.blogspot.com
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I write as a recently retired military then airline pilot with more years than I care to remember coping with equatorial flying that included short-, long- and ultra-long haul. With regularity, the climate loons pounce on turbulence events that make the headlines. Some brief observations:
Vastly increased amounts of air traffic give rise to more incidents.
West-to-east oceanic flights with ‘flexible’ track planning thanks to new technology are deliberately arranged to take advantage of the jet stream tailwinds. These can cause prolonged and serious turbulence.
The vertical separation between opposite direction flights was reduced, some years ago, to 1,000′ from 2,000′ in the stratospheric cruising levels. Because of this, sudden encounters with the ‘wake’ (jet wash) of opposite direction traffic suddenly became more frequent, particularly with the extreme degree of accuracy of modern navigation systems. Many crews ‘offset’ their tracks a bit to avoid, but sometimes air traffic control won’t permit it, or upper winds direct the wake across track. Wake turbulence encounters can be sudden and severe.
Earlier jet transports (e.g. Lockheed TriStars, early 747s, 727s etc tended to cruise in the lower to mid 30 thousands, whereas later Airbuses and Boeings tend to get in to the higher 30s and up to the mid 40 thousands. Particlularly around Asia, there often tends to be a ‘layer’ of bumpy air at those latter flight levels.
When avoiding convective (thunderstorm) weather, a combination of radar interpretation, liaison with other aircraft and air traffic control, and just plain ‘looking out the winder’ goes a long way to keeping the ride smooth. Encounters with CumuloNimbus (CB) clouds in the upper atmosphere can be sudden, violent but usually short lived. This happens with a crew not paying attention, or unfortunately caught out at night or in layers of cloud with embedded CBs. Not saying this is what happened with the Singapore flight, but Occam’s Razor etc. etc.
Keep your belts fastened ANY time you are not moving around the cabin. I can then assure you that the most dangerous part of your flight will be the drive to or from the airport.
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Thanks for the insider view…
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Drink your double Bloody Mary and sit back and watch a the movies.
Then, order another Bloody Mary. (or, whatever floats your boat). The crew on the fight deck know what they are doing.
Thai Airways crews have a sense of humour and are VERY “persuasive” with alcohol-fueled loudmouth passengers. Watching a 6-foot tall Thai steward “pacify” a row of drunken Oz louts with a few words was a salve to my soul.
In other “aviation yarns”, the early days of Air Viet Nam were priceless. All of the pilots of their fleet to Tupolev 134s were all ex MiG-21 jockeys. Take-ofs and landings were “interesting”, to say the least. A 45 degree final approach to Noi Bai outside Hanoi and a final “flare-in” followed by a brief roll past the blast shelters housing the same MiG 21’the pilot had been flying a few months, (or weeks), ago.
The saga of the Air Vietnam flight that did a “heavy landing” in Thailand is interesting. The difference between a “crash” and a”heavy landing” is that nobody actually dies in s “heavy landing”. A huge tropical storm was monstering Bangkok and the incoming aircraft from around the world were stacking up in orbiting layers. They were then prioritized: low on fuel immediately diverted ti any suitable runway, civil or military, in range.”Can wait a bit” were the next priority and then it just got messy.
An Air Vietnam flight was inbound with the “usual fuel to spare”. Some aircraft were diverted to military and civilian fields all over the region. One flight from Viet Nam was obviously burning more than the average western-built airliner and the pilot kept telling Bangkok that they were “running low”.
Eventually the aircraft went past “bingo” and became a lawn dart. The pilot, another ex MiG driver, put the very dry aircraft down in a flat bit of farmland in eastern Thailand.
When the “recovery” crew arrived soon after, they found a somewhat bent airliner and the crew staggering around the wreckage, triaging the passengers and managing first aid, all in the bucketing rain.
Sometimes, Lady Fortune smiles. And sometimes hyper-trained people just do what they have been trained to do.
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This is the correlations business, not science. Correlation is NOT causality.
There was a great book on random correlations done for fun. The most ridiculous and closest was the frequency of Nicolas Cage films and drownings in backyard pools.
We have all lived on the correlations between the increase in CO2 and temperature. Which is completely fake as temperature in Europe at least plummeted to a minimum in 1870. And this was done without proxies.
So all of man made CO2 driven Climate Change is based on the allegation of a correlation from 1870. And the fabrication of explanations, none of which held up in scrutiny. This is where two of the biggest normal oscillations fully explain European temperatures for the last 250 years. But 1870 is now held to be the start of the industrial revolution. Convenient eh?
Clear air turbulence itself is not a tiny patch on the turbulence we all experienced before aircraft could see and avoid storms and there were so many they could tell other aircraft what to avoid. And most of all, the refusal of so many people not to wear seatbelts when not moving around the cabin.
So like everything else about CO2, its all fake. As for Climate Change? Where? 36 years of waiting for the end of the world in a state of permanent Climate Emergency has to wear thin someday. And it only applies to Democracies anyway. Why?
And why when people are injured isn’t there a call for passengers to wear their seat belts? Blaming Climate Change for injuries is nuts.
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And it’s getting sillier. We are told the weather is not the climate. (Repeat until bored). And then a single event in one place in the world at one altitude and velocity and of total duration 5.2 seconds is blamed on Climate Change? This is instantaneous extremely localized in position and altitude Climate Change. And it’s our fault? Or that of Nicholas Cage.
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Or maybe the pilot discovered the mythical hot spot which is needed to explain CO2 driven warming? It would rank now with the Fountain of Youth, Xanadu or the lost city of Atlantis.
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It is well worth remembering that humans and their computers cannot cope with randomness. Since the incidence of CAT (clear air turbulence) and an aircraft being in the same place at the same time will always be very uncommon with the risk of serious accidents being even rarer, has there been an relative increase in incident risk. The data says No.
Idiots using computers are still idiots. Climate change fanatics using computers to prove their case are either idiots or liars and often both.
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This is a great example of subjective climate alarmism,
Hypothetical climate change assumption: Thunderstorm severity will increase.
Accept the assumption.
Human response. Avoid flying when turbulence is expected to be severe. This already happens in S.E. Asia which has a lot of storm activity.
Science predicts. Aviation easily adapts by avoiding to fly at those times and circumstances
It is ‘subjective’ because the ease of adaptation by aviation is ignored.
Reminds me of It is hotter so turn up the airconditioner. (human adaption). The DIFFERENCE is that flying is a luxury. The terms of when and how it is done is set by safety considerations.
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I can’t believe anybody ever took this notion seriously.
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I find it interesting that irrelevant of the accuracy of the information about climate change the discussion is always prefaced on the assumption that CO2 causes climate change.
Until there is proof ( which there never will be) then all discussion of what may or may not occur because of climate change is a total waste of time.
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Radio 3AW is the big one in Melbourne. Morning of Friday 31 May they had semi-regular guest astrophysicist/science speaker/ask me a question Dr Gail Iles, about whose dreadful science I have complained several times to 3AW.
Gail was at max warp yesterday, affirming without pause or doubt or reference that Climate Change was causing more air turbulence for aircraft. I mean, a warmer air would, would it not?
She made no reference to measured data such as the massive routine number of pilot reports that show no new cc problem. It was dogma all the way down couched in terms of “We pilots who knows these things.”
Society has a large challenge to stop the spread of ignorance by dogma at the expense of the silencing of proper science.
(Yes, I flew military aircraft one with training at RAAF Pt Cook for B.E. B.Sc. Wings, curtailed by car crash).
Geoff S
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University of Reading? Enough said.
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My father was stationed in Plymouth, England, during WWII, with RAAF 10 Sqn, from early 1940 to late 1943. No. 10 Sqn RAAF operated the giant Sunderland Flying Boats that took off from Plymouth Sound and patrolled down the English Channel and out into the far reaches of the Atlantic Ocean, north and south, and down the coasts of France, Portugal and Spain, looking for U Boats. My father was a decorated Flight Engineer and Tail Gunner with two ME 109s to his credit. By the time he was in his 40s he was suffering from back problems. So too were a lot of his squadron mates. By the time he was in his late 60s he had endured two back operations to relieve the pressure from compressed discs. So too had many of his squadron mates. My father put it down to the often-experienced severe updrafts and downdrafts they encountered while out on 12-15 hour-long patrols. The turbulence was almost exclusively clear air turbulence and there were no obvious warnings of the events. My father recounted one occasion when he said the aircraft must have shot up nearly 1000 ft, compressing the crew members into their seats, or onto the floor and that coming out of the updraft caused the Sunderland to “fall off a cliff” and fall so rapidly that the entire crew was compressed against the roof of the aircraft, save the pilots who always kept their seat harnesses securely fastened. He told me that after each event the interior of the aircraft was a mess of equipment and personal effects strewn about everywhere. Global Warming, or climate change, wasn’t a thing back then, and air traffic was no-where near as dense then as today, yet sudden updrafts were quite commonly experienced. So called “scientists” latching on to this phenomenon as proof of some sort of climate catastrophe is charlatanism writ large, as Jo Nova’s research demonstrates.
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Very interesting story John. Thanks.
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After WW2 there were many visits to Rathmines on Lake Macquarie near Newcastle by “seaplanes”.
The Sunderland would have been one of those seen landing and taking off from the water.
We also visited a Catalina that had been left on the edge of the lake near the last bridge on the way to Toronto. It was falling apart.
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