JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Plenty more ‘Flannery’ forecast for the next couple of days in Sydney. So much for the BOM’s forecast of a hot dry Summer (or something like that)..
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Going to stay wet according to David Burton aka Inigo Jones, out to March-April. He has been 100% accurate with the current rains from months ago.
Still predicting the biggest floods we have seen since colonisation here in Aus out to 2029. After this peak in sunspots, so Jo’s disaster map is going to look a lot worse over that period.
its the planets position to each other and their relative location in the solar system is why weather changes for each location.
71
Where do you get to see his forecasts?
This broad approach (image link below) is the only forecast I’ve seen. It has little to no specific detail.
https://inigojoneslongtermweatherforecaster.com/wp-content/uploads/Flood-Drought-Cycles-by-DK-Burton.jpg
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Hi Strop,
follow him on Telegram t.me/Inigo432
he gives monthly rain forecasts for the month ahead, mainly east coast, as well as other titbits.
it has been very handy with building my house and organising trades around rain dates.
20
Four-and-twenty years ago… we were warned we would have *Sydney’s climate* if we didn’t mend our ways – hooray! Instead, Sydney now has our climate [weather], 24C and rain. Was that the sound of a whoopee cushion I heard?
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But JR, yesterday the BOM forecast for Mt.Barker was 11 to 26℃. As my thermometer said 15℃ first thing I thought that it was the usual BS, but low and behold 2 thermometers (home and away) showed a maximum of 25.6-25.8℃.
A this morning the shortcut was the same as the BOM forecast for a minimum of 15℃.
This astounded me as I (and lot of locals) am not used to the BOM figures being that accurate, or even close to reality.
I wonder if the local station has been told to remove the thermometer away from 10 feet of the air conditioner output?
20
Weather forecast for Davos
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Is Global Warming™ still on the agenda?
The Era of Disinformation. These clowns will be looking at freezing conditions outside through their fossil fuelled created environment wondering why they cannot convince old white men that the globe is boiling and those old white men need to stop burning fossil fuels.
Any news organisation worth listening to should be ridiculing this event with all guns blazing. The stupidity of the Davos mob is unlimited.
Something to note – Buyers of electric cars living in freezing conditions should understand that heating comes free with an ICE. Heating requires taking a tiny fraction of the 60 to 70% of the heating value in gasoline that the engine rejects in its operating cycle and directing it to heating the vehicle cabin. It does not impact on range.
With an EV, range in mild conditions can be extended by slowing down because the power required is a cube function of speed making range an inverse squared function of speed. The faster you go the shorter the range. However this relationship is not true when there is a high heating load. The longer the trip, the more energy is used in cabin heating. So heating can have a big impact on range and slowing down can actually reduce the range. There is an optimum speed similar to what occurs with an ICE vehicle under mildl conditions due to the engine performance curve.
40
Tesla users in Alberta report that their mileage is reduced to about half in the current minus 26℃ weather there, so they have to recharge during the day. The Alberta authorities have appealed to customers to reduce usage owing to their wind turbines not working in the cold.
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“Precipitation (in some form) probably”.
So they’re not sure days out, but know the climate accurately decades from now?
Disease-X is their focus this time.
Given how their plans are falling apart faster than a chinese suit, it won’t be long at all.
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The UK’s ” research facility” for Disease-X
One of UK’s most secretive centres of scientific research, Porton Down is aiming to stop the next pandemic “in its tracks.”
Located in the Wiltshire countryside near Salisbury, UK, the new facility is one of the few places in the world equipped to research some of the most dangerous viruses and bacteria.
https://twitter.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1745534865754275970
“Research”…riiiight…
30
Here in my Earthly location, it is currently snowing.
Sadly, only those of us born in the last century are able to experience it.
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The strange issue of not having an issue.
When you look everywhere the Govs, many Boffins and “Gov funded” Independent advisory “experts” state that Li-ion is safe….
Less chance than an ICE fire they say. Less chance of a gas fire. Less chance of a kitchen fire…. etc. etc.
The problem is that the data they present is post manipulated. You are being told mistruths.
How do I know?.. I am one of those that investigates an incident, authors the fire report and adds it to the data base.
If you doubt me, ask yourself this…. Governments and their funded agencies wouldn’t lie, would they?
260
Safe?
Recently, the Fremantle Highway car-carrying vessel caught fire off the Dutch coast with over 3,000 vehicles on-board enroute from Germany to Egypt. A fire on board car carrier Felicity Age in February 2022, led to the vessel sinking in the Atlantic Ocean, along with its cargo of 4,000 vehicles. Li-ion batteries were cited as being a factor in keeping the fire ablaze.
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That ship went down with just 4,000 “made in Europe” vehicles, and those reported to be luxury models, but Toyotas have been hard to get from then till now.
Is this just an example of how the market works? Or is there some other factor?
Is the loss of one load of cars enough to create a scarcity on the far side of the globe? Or does novelty exaggerate the scarcity?
00
I can’t handle any more of this “ global boiling “ . My daughter & her family have jetted ( foolish girl ) off to Whistler Blackcombe ski resort in BC Canada for 4 weeks of skiing & snowboarding.
The temperature last Friday hit a scorching range! Min -28°c to a maximum of -20°c.
I hope she’s learned her lesson & stops this foolish emissions producing behaviour.
Global Boiling will ruin the families fun again next year for sure!
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The oceans are boiling which creates “Lethal Humidity” according to Twiggy Forrest which is causing these snow storms.
Basic science.
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From another blog –
“Saw a Tesla car pulling a small airstream trailer down I40 yesterday. They were getting off at the only exit with a Tesla supercharger station for nearly 100 miles.
Coincidence?
The airstream was where they wait for it to charge. In my opinion that’s the smartest Ev driver yet. Charging station is Modern day campgrounds “
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I gather the airstream trailer had gas heating. Using gas for heating while charging would likely reduce overall travel costs compared with heating the EV cabin while charging.
These smart people learning to economise while saving the planet in their EV.
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A reminder of recent history, they exempted themselves due to something in the constitution. Scumo used the constitution to protect themselves. World’s most deadly disease, ever, yet they were more concerned about the Vax?
Brett Sutton, brother in law of Jane Halton, from event 201 and head of Australia’s Covid response and head of Australians Quarantine network and board member of Crown Hotels. (the quarantine hotel, BS leak)
https://cairnsnews.org/2024/01/14/victoria-cho-says-judiciary-and-politicians-exempt-from-covid-jab/
I could not extract the video from the article.
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Allow me.
https://videopress.com/embed/swG504y0
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Serveral thousands of tractors and a lot of trucks are on the way from several directions to Berlin, for the final demo tomorrow in the Gouvernements Quarter.
Some hundrets arrived today in the afternoon.
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Scientists to deliver a warning about nuclear war with Doomsday Clock 2024 announcement
It’s almost that time again: Time for the annual update of the Doomsday Clock, the symbol of how close the world is to civilization-ending catastrophe.
First set in 1947, the Doomsday Clock warns humanity about how close – or far – we are to destroying our world with our own dangerous technologies. “It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet,” according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, which sets the symbolic time each January.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/01/13/doomsday-clock-2024-announcement/72175283007/
Place your bets now.
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It has competition now –
“Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
A few years back, some scientists got together and invented something they call the Living Planet Index, or LPI. It’s supposed to measure how well (or poorly) the species that make up the living world are doing. They say it is a “measure of the state of the world’s biological diversity based on population trends of vertebrate species.” So it’s an index based on the decline of some selected species, which is claimed to represent the decline of the species of the “living world”.
Here’s the big news from their latest report.
The Living Planet Index claims an average 70% decline in the populations of species worldwide since 1970.”
More holes than a colander
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/06/e-pur-si-muove/
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Giant Solar Farms May Warp Weather on The Other Side of The Planet
While resources such as coal or gas are finite, if you are able to capture and use solar power it doesn’t prevent anyone else from also using as much sunshine as they need.
Except that isn’t quite the full story. Beyond a certain size, solar farms become large enough to affect the weather around them and ultimately the climate as a whole.
A photovoltaic (PV) solar panel is dark-coloured and so absorbs much more heat than reflective desert sand. Although a fraction of the energy is converted to electricity, much of it still heats up the panel. And when you have millions of these panels grouped together, the whole area warms up.
If those solar panels were in the Sahara, our simulations show this new heat source would rearrange global climate patterns, shifting rainfall away from the tropics and leading to the desert becoming greener again, much as it was just 5,000 or so years ago.
This would in turn affect patterns of cloud cover and how much solar energy could be generated around the world.
Regions that would become cloudier and less able to generate solar power include the Middle East, southern Europe, India, eastern China, Australia, and the US south-west. Areas that would generate more solar include Central and South America, the Caribbean, central and eastern US, Scandinavia and South Africa.
https://www.sciencealert.com/giant-solar-farms-may-warp-weather-on-the-other-side-of-the-planet
Like I said yesterday:
Round and round we go in a never ending circle of “solutions” and unforseen consequences of those “solutions”.
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Scientists Identify The Optimal Number of Daily Steps For Longevity, And It’s Not 10,000
By analyzing data on tens of thousands of people across four continents compiled between 15 existing studies, a team of researchers has landed on a more comfortable figure: the optimal number is probably closer to 6,000 steps per day, depending on your age.
Anything more is unlikely to further reduce your chances of stumbling into an early grave.
https://www.umass.edu/news/article/meta-analysis-15-studies-reports-new-findings-how-many-daily-walking-steps-needed
That’s about 4km or an hour at a decent pace allowing for different factors…
20
Daily sarcasm.
We’re living in a world where lemonade is made with artificial flavours, but floor polish is made with real lemons.
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Weekly entertainment: The generation gap and Aussie lamb
https://youtu.be/V1e0apyGASc?si=bej9XjO0WJbBy3v2
Eat meat! Eat lamb! Eat beef!
Be a real Aussie and proud of it.😁
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Got a bit sticking the fingers down the throat though.
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They didn’t mention Australia Day once.
Disgusting add.
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It’d upset the coathanger throwers.😉
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Another
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g0kCnnTeMg
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Russia Before and After – How It Has Changed in 23 Months Since The Invasion?
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It is difficult to assess the situation in Russia based on that video. Can you point to anywhere that has improved standard of living on any objective basis in the past two years.
Diesel in Russia costs USD0.71/litre. In Germany, diesel cost USD1.88/litre. That is 2.6 times more expensive. Energy cost is a significant input to cost of living because it hits every aspect of the value chain.
Australian farmers and consumers are complaining about the mark up on food prices from farm to supermarket but still vote for governments wanting to make electricity and gas much more expensive. Meat processing, transport and storage in Australia is highly energy intensive due to the need for cooling.
10
Ho! Ho! Ho!
“How life in Russia has changed since its invasion of Ukraine”
https://www.npr.org/2023/02/23/1159118794/how-life-in-russia-has-changed-since-its-invasion-of-ukraine
NPR would not be the most trusted source in USA – just sayin.
Also I note that a search for “Videos of life in Russia today” brings this heavily to the fore in Brave search so it might be nobbled too
00
FWIW
“Collective west fantasy world and its constant failure to assess Russia accurately”
https://rumble.com/v473563-collective-west-fantasy-world-and-its-constant-failure-to-assess-russia-acc.html
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Also FWIW
“Merry Christmas from Russia”
https://youtu.be/4ycq1EptaCg
00
JC:
I drink a local beverage called Tahisian Lime. It probably used limes originally but it changed to lemon, at least as flavour goes. The change was obvious (but I still drink it).
00
And, in Texas:
https://www.ercot.com/
More-or-less real-time data.
00
Oh the Humanity!
Following on from the Hertz Tesla sell-off (give away!) in the US.
EV charging company ChargePoint pulls the plug on Australia as US-owned network shuts down stations in NSW, Victoria and Queensland
ChargePoint will shut down Australian network
Network of 46 ports will cease from February 1
Comes after Australian EV firm shuts factory
The Californian-based company that owns ChargePoint share price reached a peak of $US46.10 in late 2020 but is now sitting at an all-time low of $US2.
10
Link to Daily Mail article
EV charging company ChargePoint pulls the plug on Australia as US-owned network shuts down stations in NSW, Victoria and Queensland
20
Poland preparing for war
As of yesterday, Poland has issued a new directive that if you are called for military service, you have just 6 hours to report. The penalty for failure to report is three years in prison. If you cannot make it there in 6 hours, call the commander and explain why. If you fail to show up and avoid military service, you will be imprisoned for five years.
Poland is now CLEARLY preparing for war.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/poland/poland-issues-military-order-you-have-6-hrs-to-report-for-service/
Probably all before the US elections because no-one will believe the demonrats “won” again, so it’s false flags and war to distract the masses and keep Bidet in office under wartime powers.
21
Maybe part of “informed consent” before flying there?
“What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”
“We’re all gonna D.I.E!!!!
“The Federal Aviation Administration is actively recruiting workers who suffer “severe intellectual” disabilities, psychiatric problems and other mental and physical conditions under a diversity and inclusion hiring initiative spelled out on the agency’s website. “
https://nypost.com/2024/01/14/news/faas-diversity-push-includes-hiring-people-with-intellectual-and-psychiatric-disabilities/
“Targeted disabilities are those disabilities that the Federal government, as a matter of policy, has identified for special emphasis in recruitment and hiring,” the FAA’s website states.”
“They include hearing, vision, missing extremities, partial paralysis, complete paralysis, epilepsy, severe intellectual disability, psychiatric disability and dwarfism.” ”
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2024/01/14/what-could-possibly-go-wrong-36/
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‘Lunatics have taken over!’ | Neil Oliver on air strikes in Yemen, Britain’s borders and more
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0oAr_kZ-_E
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How long before Oliver is Tuckered/Steined?
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Speaking of Yemen airstrikes, here is a video from 9 news of before and after the strikes. The buildings look like excel clipart, what is the grey area. The second looks like they started a grass fire, now there is an achievement worth sharing with the world.
https://youtu.be/7x-y9O_Fn8s?t=22
When it starts hit pause, this is the before.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0oAr_kZ-_E
I think that just about covers it.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0oAr_kZ-_E
I think that just about covers it.
00
The top half of the Northern Territory is behaving like it is ocean today. There is next to no impact of land on the weather pattern that is dominated by a low with central pressure now down to 995hPa sitting south of Darwin.;
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/01/15/0800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-227.34,-16.18,1751/loc=131.349,-16.307
This is the first time I have seen a tropical cyclone develop over land. The BoM are reporting the low being over the ocean but this storm did not develop over the ocean.
Rather than petering out like most tropical lows do over land, this one is intensifying. Water streaming in from the Timor Sea picking up energy over the land near Darwin then picking up more water over the Gulf followed by more energy input to the south over land. This storm could just sit where it is in perpetual motion for a couple of months!. It is a really interesting pattern More intense than what the Amazon experiences.
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Its not a cyclone from what I see, just a low and low wind speeds, no build up. https://www.windy.com/?-16.689,132.698,7
Just a wet patch http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR422.loop.shtml#skip
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It is intensifying. Yesterday the central pressure was 999hPa. So it has intensified while over land.
The winds are not at cyclonic strength but it is a deepening depression over land with a distinct core. That is uncommon for Australia and all other places I have observed. Depressions like this usually develop over ocean and intensify over ocean before reaching land where they become rain depressions.
Darwin has recorded 220mm of rain in the past 6 days and it looks like it will get even more in the next few days. It could become very interesting because the land to the south is warm (over 40C) but there is a lot of water available from the east in the Gulf and Gulf country.
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All the signs are there for “Lethal Humidity” – expect a visit from Twiggy Forrest.
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He might get touched by that “lethal humidity” so likely will stay well away?
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Have a look at the one west of Jakarta, over water and Madagascar. I have never really paid much attention to lows traversing land, but Rain in the NT in the monsoon, it floods every year. https://earth.nullschool.net/#2024/01/15/0800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-248.21,-1.21,876/loc=116.795,-33.752
You’re looking at wind direction, that’s just a pattern, look at the radar, nothing. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR421.loop.shtml#skip
I have had 140mm of rain in the last 4 days, wet season I named it.
00
Cyclones that make it to land always lose intensity. I have never seen a low start over land like this and build intensity.
Sure it is the wet season but cyclones inevitably start over water and lose intensity over land. The top end is behaving like ocean.
Darwing Harbour is getting gets to 70kph through today and the airflow is in a circular patter around the low sitting over land.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDD60901/IDD60901.95122.shtml
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This morning I heard predictions of near cyclonic weather for Darwin, ie higher wind and rain than normal.
Looking at it now there have been some gusts around 60 kph and buggerall rain.
Are they all alarmists in the weather business or are they afraid that if they DON’T ring the bells someone might get hurt and sue?
10
BoMs forecast skills are unreliable, the heavy rainfall from TC Jasper put a few noses out of joint.
00
JC2’s Tech tip corner
I’ve had problems of late being unable to connect to Igor Chudov’s website (but not his substack) on Android, with an “unable to connect” error.
Windows pc works fine so it’s not my ISP blocking it or anything else.
Routing Android through a VPN works so not either smartphone or AV software.
It appears that a Google DNS server is responsible for whatever reason, but only on Android. Weird…
So, if you’re having such problems I’d suggest you change your DNS from “Automatic” to Private DNS and use:
1dot1dot1dot1.cloudflare-dns.com
as the hostname.
Problem fixed!
It also means you bypass Google’s DNS system so you benefit from more privacy.
Android settings-> Network & internet-> More connection settings (Samsung) -> Private DNS
00
Tropical storm in northern Australia.
https://i.ibb.co/VL7Rp3V/mimictpw-ausf-latest.gif
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It will drift along the monsoon trough and has the potential to intensify into a TC in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
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Perfectly normal in summer, in the tropics.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/synoptic_col.shtml
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Kerry resigns to help POTUS get reelected.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/01/14/john-kerry-resigning-as-climate-envoy-to-help-biden-election-campaign/
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New study places doubt on the claims that dingoes help keep wild cats and fox numbers in check .
https://www.beefcentral.com/news/new-research-shows-dingoes-do-not-suppress-feral-cat-and-fox-populations/?mibextid=Zxz2cZ&fbclid=IwAR2-pW4zq0T30vCDJW-EO7WbNIwXM4kfoiH6Cp75w7v1SQarSurT2iS9aSE
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Just caught up with the BOM’s review of Australian weather in December. Despite what everyone actually experienced, it was apparently drier and hotter than average. Sure.
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They should bin the script of hot and dry, which is their forecast for the rest of summer. BoMs models don’t include Hunga Tonga, so the organisation is facing acute embarrassment.
30
” so the organisation is facing acute embarrassment.”
Pfft! Like the ABC and all politicians, its just water off a duck’s back that they ignore while doubling down on their next propaganda rush!
20
Arctic ice makes a comeback during the hottest time in recorded history.
https://notrickszone.com/2024/01/14/for-this-time-of-year-arctic-sea-ice-has-risen-to-its-highest-level-in-21-years/
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Unfortunately area with at least 15% ice coverage tells you nothing about the actual amount of sea ice. One year it could be 100% covered and a mile thick, the next 15% covered by flakes 5mm thick! (Well you get the idea anyway.)
01
Why nobody will build EV charging stations
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Canadian winter in US.
https://i.ibb.co/Wt37NX7/Zrzut-ekranu-2024-01-15-122703.png
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