JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Oslo’s E-Bus Fleet Could Use Some Warming…City Paralyzed as Buses “Break Down” Due To Cold
The city of Oslo took delivery of 183 new electric buses last April with the aim of becoming “emissions-free”. But instead the city has become mobility free. What looked good on paper, didn’t work out well in reality.
“The range of the electric buses decreases drastically in the cold. The batteries run out more quickly,” according to sources. “…with the onset of winter, the weaknesses of the electric vehicles are becoming apparent: although a range of 250 kilometers is actually advertised, the buses sometimes simply break down.”
It’s reported that the contract volume for the buses was 100 million euros.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/12/13/oslos-e-bus-fleet-could-use-some-warmingcity-paralyzed-as-buses-break-down-due-to-cold/
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Some of the comments to the Article –
– Those batteries aren’t dead, they’re pining for the fjords.
– Make Oslo a 15 minute city. Build a dome over it. Invest in geothermal vents through road and sidewalk grates. C’mon, people, do I have to think of everything here?!?!?!
– Bus-ted (LOL)
200
Some buses have diesel heaters fitted to warm the batteries.
Clown world.
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Victoria warned against ‘very inefficient’ hydrogen buses after trial announced in November 2023
Cambridge professor says grey hydrogen buses are expensive, ‘destructive’ and not a true zero-emissions solution
Australian Transit Systems continues to steer the green mass transit shift, with the introduction of two new Australian manufactured hydrogen buses for the Victorian Government.
Transit Systems CEO Michael McGee said they have leveraged a decade of hydrogen bus experience, gained by the group during a hydrogen bus trial with Transport for London.
The British Oxygen Company (BOC) will provide the hydrogen gas for refuelling from its hydrogen production facility in Altona with buses being refuelled by Transit System on site at the West Footscray depot.
Norway should give these Australian buses a go!
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What a surprise, no one knew before… 😀
Even ICE may have starting problems when its to cold, but it’s only a question of minutes to solve the problem with a little help from a friend or neighbor.
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Heating a bus when it is minus 10C outside also reduces an EV bus range
50
We are no nearer getting to the bottom of the fire in the open air car park at Bristol Airport last Sunday. I had parked my vehicle here in preference ironically to the multi storey, to specifically avoid the consequences of an EV fire in a confined space as happened at Luton airport.
We arrived back from Austria 2 hours after the fire, which destroyed 11 vehicles. We knew nothing about it until we got home as fortunately our section of the car park was completely unaffected.
Various people are claiming it was an Ev fire but no word from the Authorities.
This guy in the link seems to be very active regarding EV fire reporting and is sure the Bristol incident was due to such a vehicle, probably a hybrid
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?&q=tony+at+ev+carnage&&mid=03F0150B7AB3344C7C1703F0150B7AB3344C7C17&&FORM=VRDGAR
I will reserve judgement until more news emerges
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The headline say it all
https://rmx.news/article/nigel-farage-is-now-far-more-popular-among-conservative-voters-than-prime-minister-rishi-sunak/
The Tory govt has a year left to turn things round. Acting like a Tory Government might help. Whatever people think of Farage he is probably the most effective British Politician this century despite never having been elected as an UK MP.
Sunak is very weak and is really a cabinet member not a PM. It seems unlikely in the extreme that Farage could take control of the Party. The party he is associated with-Reform-has been steadily gathering support and now has the support of around 11% according to the polls.
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It will be interesting times if Farage decides to take a tilt at the top job and can mount a solid campaign.
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I don’t think Nigel has the energy for it. He’s worn out (done a hell of a lot).
10
The bottom half of page 2 of The Land” (rural NSW) this week is an advertisement highlighting the benefits of CO2.
Somebody is trying!
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That is probably “very trying” to people who don’t usually read “The Land”
00
My wrap up. As theater of the absurd COP 28 was pretty good.
COP 28: The radicals lose again
By David Wojick, Ph.D.
https://www.cfact.org/2023/12/14/cop-28-the-radicals-lose-again/
The beginning: “As I pointed out several years ago, the climate alarmists have a civil war going on, between radicals and moderates. Radical leader Greta Thunberg’s famous “How dare you” was addressed to moderate COP negotiators, not to skeptics.
In recent years every COP had been dominated by an angry motion from the radicals, which was ultimately defeated in the final hours. Ironically these noisy motions tend to actually inhibit progress on the big green agenda, so I welcome them. COP 28 was no different. The basic idea was to finally mention fossil fuels in the final statement after 27 COPS not doing so. Makes sense given that burning fossil fuels are the supposed reason for the climate alarm.
Seemed simple enough, but the radicals had to go full bore on it. They demanded an agreement to actually phase out fossil fuels. Out in the sense of none. No oil, no gas, no coal, nothing. To see how radical this phase out stuff really is note that the alarmist abomination called net zero does not do this. The net in net zero specifically allows for future fossil fuel emissions, provided these are offset in some way. Moreover it allows for unlimited fossil fuel use if carbon capture can ever be made to work. Net zero is about emissions not fuel.
Moreover a lot of fossil fuel is used as petrochemical feedstock, which does not create CO2 emissions. As my colleague Ron Stein strenuously points out, petrochemical products are fundamental to our way of life. Phasing out fossil fuels would mean ending petrochemicals. A lot of countries objected to this radical phase out insistence. Some were oil and gas producers and the radical press focused on them. But a bunch of others were countries that rightly saw fossil fuel as powering economic improvement. This humanitarian side of the argument seldom got reported.
There was an exquisite moment in the middle of all this mindless ho-ha. The moderate President of COP 28 had said there was no science supporting the need to obliterate fossil fuel use. The radicals were outraged and said so. In response the Pres then held a press conference featuring the Chief of the IPCC. The Chief said that meeting the holy target of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C just required reducing oil use by 60% and natgas use by 45% (not even half). Nothing like phasing out fossil fuel use was required. He specifically said the President was correct.
None of this made the slightest difference to the radicals. The radical rag CNN even did a long piece on the press conference without mentioning the IPCC or its Chief. This is the clearest proof that science is of no interest to the radical alarmists that I have seen to date.
When push came to shove at the end the radicals simply lost big time. The final statement says nothing about phasing out fossil fuels. It doesn’t even say that about the demon coal, which is just supposed to be phased down, not out, someday.”
Lots more in the article. Please share it.
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Yes. It was the Greens, remember, who prevented Australia from establishing an ETS. Their hubris demanded more, so they finished up with nothing. Thank Heaven for that.
But I see the war on plastics as an integral part of this campaign.
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On the radical side yes but not on the moderate side.
21
I may live in fairy land, but I think one day soon there will be one leader (with more fortitude than seen anywhere currently) who will tabulate the economic destruction in Western economies and the consequent precipitous falls in their standard of living, have a national address to exhibit the consequential impoverishment of the middle classes and then demand the never-been-radical idea of opening up the entire matter of climate change theory to full and open scientific debate.
Science must be restored to its rightful leading position as the source of social advancement in all societies around the world. It has been so since the Industrial Revolution. The troglodytes aren’t the sceptics. They are the purveyors and believers of the climate theory. Since the beginning they have been accused of using the climate scare to impoverish western nations into accepting international,authoritarian rule. It’s now openly espoused. Western middle classes should soon become receptive to the idea that, with poverty experienced, they will accept any argument to verify the climate theory before this continues any further.
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Apparently the worlds largest iceberg has broken free of the bottom of the ocean where it had been stuck and is now floating. Interestingly this iceberg, which is thicker that Australias “tallest building” is depicted in the traditional hot colours of “extreme heat” events. Why a graphic of how thick an iceberg is coloured various shades of yellow and red is beyond me.
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/a23a-worlds-largest-iceberg-moving-at-speed/news-story/b42401461b91cf4d82b7d732338eeef4
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As tall buildings are known to fall over – or more precisely, self-implode – that comparison is rather futile. How’s about ‘the size of ACT / Belgium / Connecticut’ or ‘as big as a whale!’ No! ‘Twice the size of Greater London’ I heard some young churnalist repeat yesterday [sigh].
It’s not so much a ‘heatwave’ as Occam’s physics in action: the wind blows, ’twas a high tide, gravity sucks, the penguins are revolting?
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It broke away decades ago. It then grounded and has now melted enough to drift away.
As for size, the seabed around Greenland has keel marking from icebergs at 600m depth. Subtract 100m for the lower sea level when they started moving and you arrive at a draft of 500m.
Icebergs end glaciation. If there are enough ice mountains floating around the northern oceans, they cool the surface and shut down the ocean-land water cycle. So snowfall declines and melt takes over. This is one of the true tipping points in the current climate. The northern land masses are limited in how much ice can be carried before it makes its way into the ocean and begins breaking away and floating about.
Interglacials start when there is a huge amount of ice on the land and the peak sunlight in the NH starts to increase. Interglacials end when there is little ice on the northern land masses, aside from Greenland, and the peak solar intensity rises. So similar orbital conditions start and end an interglacial. The difference is the state of ice on the land. Earth is entering the next cycle of glaciation but CO2 botherers are blind to the obvious.
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What a weird thing to whine about. Nothing is ever done right unless it is done by someone from the right? And you missed the obvious critique that I saw immediately.
I think the graphic makes it easy for me to see the different thicknesses but having red and green as the prominent colours is a terrible pallette for colour blind people.
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It’s how the Denmark institute do the Arctic ice. The red is the thickest ice. Makes sense to me.
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Sydney experiences unprecedented heat.
‘If you think Sydney just had an unusually hot start to summer, you weren’t imagining it. The city just experienced its hottest first fortnight of summer in more than 160 years of records.’ (Weatherzone)
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And to only think that Sydney went for 11 months without a day over 30C in 2022/23. Catch up?
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Be interesting to see if there are more rolling blackouts today I believe there were yesterday .
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It would be very interesting if we were kept informed day by day of the “load shedding” that is taking place.
Load shedding means blackouts for somebody, hidden blackouts.
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But then they knew how many votes to print for December to make it so?
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Tow the world’s largest iceberg to Sydney & solve the heat crisis and the fresh water crisis all at once…
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Umm, already done before in fact.
Dick Smith ‘sails’ iceberg into Sydney Harbour.
Tony.
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God bless Dick Smith!
They don’t make them like that any more.
I remember another of his “pranks” when he invested considerable cost into proving that water divining is a hoax.
But that takes us back to another era.
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160 years? How do they come to that conclusion? Year zero for climate theory is ~1910 is it not? The excuse for ignoring anything prior when it comes to warming is that the temperature measuring setup before that was different and couldn’t possibly be incorporated into the global warming data. How could it possibly be homogenised, and really, just how accurate could it be anyway when it relied on some person having to read (how many could read in those days, let alone WRITE numbers down accurately) a thermometer let alone be trusted enough to record it accurately?
Tree rings, ice cores, etc can be translated into the data. But not direct, daily thermometry reading?
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Good point, when it fits the narrative the old data is acceptable.
By 1864 the Sydney weather man would have had a reasonably good thermometer situated in the shade.
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Who had Hottest first fortnight on their bingo card?
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Might the output of all of the city’s air-conditioning heat exchangers have contributed?
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Peak stupidity ?
“Breathing contributes to global warming”
https://www.rt.com/news/589091-human-breathing-global-warming-study/
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First they came for the cows then they came for… 🙁
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Imagine “Elbow”!
“On WION / youtube I’m watching Putin taking questions from the General Public & Media LIVE. It is an impressive thing. Folks asking hard questions about things the government is doing wrong, and Putin listening, taking notes and saying what will be done to fix it.
Can you imagine Biden taking a question from a soldier about housing issues on a base, or problems at the VA and taking notes to tell the right people to fix it? Or taking a question from folks in Alaska who retired there but want to move to somewhere warmer, but their government housing is limited; so how to fix it?
I can imagine the relevant ministers in Russia scurrying to “fix it” before Putin asks them why he got the question…
Or taking questions about Argentina using the $US and implications?
Putin was clearly uncomfortable when the questions were about various minor failures in some agencies, and stated that those things needed to be fixed. The impressive thing? That these “ordinary people” were comfortable asking Putin these uncomfortable questions…
Putin is “putting himself out there” for direct criticism of him and his government. Impressive. And he listens carefully, takes notes on what needs fixing, and says what can be done (so, to one person, said the budget for this year was done, but it could be put in next year’s budget OR if new revenues were found, it could be addressed using them – and was writing down something that I think was likely a note to tell the relevant ministers to “get it done”…)
He, Putin, also clearly has a handle on how to run a government. I knew he was good at understanding international affairs and finance, but it was a surprise to see him doing what is basically a “National Town Hall”. Live. Unscripted (clearly, give that some of the questions were a bit difficult to Putin…) It was also impressive how there was a degree of comfort and almost familiarity between Putin and these “ordinary people”. Banter at times, visually some emotional upset showing on some folks faces and then grins & smiles about other issues. Just a human give & take.
I think Putin generally likes being connected with The People. Openly accepting things that need fixing or changing at one time, explaining how things work at others. Even taking questions of a personal sort, like how is he handling the insults and criticism from the West. Insults to him and to Russia.
Frankly, I’m impressed with Putin as a person taking the personal / political risk of an open question period Town Hall and how he connects with his people. I mean, can you imagine Biden taking a question from a retired Grandma (via video in a remote district) asking what he is going to do about the price of eggs going up? Putin just did. (and took it seriously, even as some of the live audience was snickering at her…)
This is a real “give and take”, with Putin sometimes taking an issue to fix, clearly a bit embarrassed if he didn’t know it needed fixing; sometimes explaining why a thing “just is”, and sometimes explaining the way an issue will resolve itself. (Like the eggs, where import volumes dropped suddenly – my guess is from the EU – but replacement supplies are arranged and will cause prices to come back down as the shortage eases).
I wish we had government that listens to the ordinary people like this, instead of out of touch Rulers without clue.”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2023/11/15/w-o-o-d-14-november-2023-eu-borrows-for-ukraine-end-us-rushes-to-m-e-war-recessions/#comment-168044
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Sounds nice; was Navalny there?
50
KK,
Navalny disappeared from his camp I am afraid – forever. The authorities say they are not concerned about every single criminal.
There are rumours he was moved in order to exchange for someone / something useful for Putin, not very convincing…
10
I can imagine a business manager whose budget ran wildly over when the Ukrainians did not vacate Bakhmut on cue.
This left him with insufficient funds to meet his wages bill, forcing him to spit a dummy or two up the line to loosen up funds.
He then went where he was always bound to go.
He who lives by the sword dies by the sword. So, one day, will Putin.
21
I’m even more impressed by the video a comment linked to- ‘Baklykov Live’ walking around St Petersburg with a camera just filming what was going on yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NoZFLNZMFs
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..he is probably taking notes of the questioners names, and forwarding them to his “fix it” team !…….😱⚒️🔫
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If that is “the treatment” then seems a suprising willingness of people to participate?
Do you think that the samizdat network has gone away?
10
Yes …. Just like all those North Koreans that worship their leader ! 🙄🙄🙄
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Another reason Putin is so popular.
Russia does not recognize same-sex marriage or civil unions for same-sex couples. Since 2020, the Russian Constitution has explicitly outlawed same-sex marriage
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You’ve got to be joking. This dude is just pulling the same sort of stunts Hitler did to get WWII started.
04
Northern China is experiencing “extreme” snowfall and second wave of cold weather.
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/northern-china-on-alert-for-snow-onslaught-and-record-low-temperatures/ar-AA1lpF0Z
But this is exactly what climate modellers predicted years ago:
They definitely did not predict MORE snow in IPCC AR4. The tune changed by AR6 when it was obvious to the riff-raff that there was still plenty of snow and the data showed early season snow to be rising rapidly:
https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=4
So here we have record September northern ocean temperature followed by near record early season snow. The northern oceans have only just started to warm. 500 years of increasing peak solar so far with 9,000 years to come. The upward trend in northern ocean surface reaching the sustainable maximum temperature of 30C is 2.5% of the area per decade. This year 10% of the northern oceans exceeded 29C in September. It was only just over 1% at the start of this century. If the trend is sustained, it will be 30% by the end of this century. Imagine how much more moisture is going to be in the air in September that will find its way over land in October then drop out as snow in November. People living in the NH are yet to experience severe snowfall.
The current de-iced state of the northern land masses, Greenland aside, was the same 120,000 years ago. Like now the precession cycle had just started shifting the peak solar northward and that led to glaciation. State of ice on land and orbital conditions almost the same now as 120,000 years ago.
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And as usual, science is/was settled 😀 But where is the horse ?? 😀
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A great success of COP 28!
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/berkhathwaybuy-600×266.jpg
https://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2023/12/14/y2kyoto-end-of-oil-2/
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US green lights legislation for Australia’s purchase of three nuclear-powered submarines under landmark AUKUS deal
Australia will buy up to five Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines from the US to be delivered in the 2030s
Why does Australia need any manned submarines -nuclear or otherwise?
The last ship to be sunk by a torpedo was in the Falklands War 40 years ago.
The U.S. Navy and Royal Navy are both pursuing extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (XLUUVs). These drone submarines are widely seen as a key part of tomorrow’s fleet. And the early movers may have a significant advantage.
It is no surprise that the Chinese Navy (PLAN) also appears to have a corresponding program. Yet no details have been available until now.
Satellite imagery of Sanya naval base on Hainan in the South China Sea reveals two XLUUVs. The two vehicles have been present since March-April 2021, but have only come to light inn 2022
By the time Australia gets mannned subs in a decade’s time they will be even more obsolete.
Further evidence that Australia is governed by idiots.
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Subs do other things that us ordinary folk do not and should not know about. Secret Squirrel stuff happens all the time. True, unmanned undetectable submersibles will become a real threat to global shipping
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I’d do all of that if I could hold my breath for a long time.
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You have our collective approval and encouragement to try. 😆
/yousaidit
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My comment was sparked by Jonesy referring to submarines as folk. It could have gone in another direction.
I could have asked, “Thanks I only knew of one type of sub that does things that ordinary folk don’t do”
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Us ordinary folk own the country and will be paying $368B for the boats so we should definitely know what they are going to be doing. Secret squirrel stuff is for criminals.
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There is no way to command a submerged vessel in real time as they do UAVs. They will only be able to follow pre-programmed, set and forget, tasks.
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Australia had to get English submariners to man our Collins Class subs sinnce few Australians wanted to be locked up in a steel cyclinder for monnths at a time.
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Can you confirm that? As I’ve heard it our submariners can’t get enough sea time, but I cannot confirm that.
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If manned submarines are as obsolete as you suggest, why aren’t manufacturers beating a path to our door trying to sell just a few more before they shut up shop?
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The only sub I would go on is an unmanned sub.
WATCH DAS BOOT!!! The movie. Directors cut. Awesome stuff.
00
Here’s your source of inflation: Commercial banks are allowed to create money out of nothing, through the act of lending. It’s simple bookkeeping: a debit entry to record a loan on their “books”; and a corresponding credit entry which is the ‘money’ going into your account.
Look at the chart of Australian Money Supply (M1) to see how the money supply grew. Choose the 25 year view: Money Supply | tradingeconomics.com
— M1 is mostly the sum of money existing as credit balances in the bank accounts of individuals and businesses (non-bank ones). The credit a commercial bank puts in your account when your loan is approved, DID NOT come from a ‘consolidated account’ where “all the money is kept”. On the contrary, it’s created “out of thin air” as others describe it.
Nice deal for bankers, isn’t it? Most businesses have to pay for their inventory (the goods they buy and sell) but not if you’re a banker granting a loan! . . No, no, just create something which didn’t exist 5 seconds ago and start collecting interest payments off it. It’s MAGIC.
The Money Supply increases over time because the commercial banks’ rate of lending to borrowers is higher than the rate of repayment from past borrowers. Since most money is loaned for ‘buying property’, there’s your source of property asset bubbles, right there.
Anyway, this year M1 is 13.3 times what it was in 2000. (I just read off the chart. Approximately $120bn has risen to $1600bn this year). In other words for every dollar in 2000, today there is $13.30…. (that’s M1 increasing 11.91% per year on average; double check: 1.1191^23 = 13.3)
So what would justify inflating the Money Supply at nearly 12% p.a. since 2000? . . . Some of it might have been justified by population growth and productivity gains, but not all.
I would say inflating the money supply is a big part of the West’s decades-long ‘asset price inflation’ bubble. It’s all part of the Ponzi scheme that modern banking fosters. The Cantillon Effect is real: early entrants into the ‘Housing Ponzi scheme’ are sitting pretty, but late entrants (the young) have an uphill battle unlike that faced by their elders because incomes have not kept up with house price inflation.
It’s not a fair ‘system’ for future generations, but where will change come from?
P.S. There’s also M2, M3, and even (in Britain) M4ex, for measuring Money Supply. They all add in extra things that can be construed as “money”. I used M1 here today because it’s simpler. If anyone has a preference for one measure over another, let us know.
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My wife worked for a bank until we started a family. All her male colleagues were offered near zero interest loans. She could not get access to those loans because she was a woman and could get pregnant. She was paid 60% of what her lower outpui male colleagues earnt.
The main reason house prices have gone up is the earning power of dual income households. My eldest son’s wife earns considerably more than he does and they have saved enough over 15 years being together in Australia then UK to pay cash for a new freestanding house near Cambridge. My middle son and wife can service the debt on their house overlooking Bass Strait with either income. Both have well paid professional jobs in Tasmanian public health. Youngest son is a partner in a physic practice and has a family trust.
Women entering and being encouraged to stay in the workforce has been positive for productivity. But Australian productivity peaked around the turn of this century. The beginning of the decline aligns with the introduction of the RET by the Howard government All of the effort going into installing wind turbines and solar panels is wasted. It actually reduces productivity rather than increasing it. The clowns in Canberra are blind to this.
Reducing productivity is inflationary. That means the oldies with savings are losing the wealth that is held as savings. Property house is increasing in value or at least holding its value but the savings are being eroded.
My advice to anyone in late 40s early 50s looking to their retirement future in Australia is to buy a decent block of land (say a hectare) with aim to be self-sufficient with at least own energy. Solar panels and battery for electricity and trees for heating if heating is needed. The house to be well insulated. Located close enough to a centre with good medical facilities. Not particularly prone to fire or flooding. The focus should be on reducing the cost of living.
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Chiefio has recently shaken the dust of California off and moved to acreage in Florida.
He is in the process of setting up for “eventualities” and has started posting on that.
Threads at https://chiefio.wordpress.com/, with periodic comments in the “WOOD threads”
Also threads on “preparedness” here – reviewed with considerable lifetime experience
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/
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FWIW
“‘Huge Milestone’: Biden Admin Green Lights Nuke Reactor Using Tech Not Utilized In Decades”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/12/13/huge-milestone-biden-admin-green-lights-nuke-reactor-using-tech-not-utilized-in-decades/
10
They didn’t ask the question, let alone provide an answer: Why has liquid salt been out of favour for so long? I’m curious.
10
The “Stopthesethings” website is back
The fightback against environmental vandalism is growing. Destroying the planet in order to save it does not go down well in rural communities, even if it has support in Teal and Green electorates.
https://stopthesethings.com/2023/12/14/theyre-not-in-kansas-anymore-mid-west-bans-industrial-wind-solar-projects/
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Since more than a week
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“Tesla Recalls Nearly All Vehicles Sold in U.S. to Fix System that Monitors Drivers Using Autopilot”
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2023/12/13/elon-musks-latest-tesla-recall-aimed-at-making-sure-drivers-pay-attention-with-autopilot-engaged/
The science wasn’t settled then?
20
Australian living standards drop to worst since March 2011, when Gillard was Prime Minister.
Thanks to the Economist Professor Sinclair Davidson.
From the Comments
The flatlining of living standards seems to correlate with the increase in the use of renewable energy from the Rudd/Gillard years.
https://www.energy.gov.au/energy-data/australian-energy-statistics/data-charts/australian-electricity-generation-renewable-sources
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Meanwhile Labor continues to Aim to Screw Australia
Purpose
AEMO publishes the Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan (ISP) pursuant to its functions under section 49(2) of
the National Electricity Law (which defines AEMO’s functions as National Transmission Planner) and its
supporting functions under the National Electricity Rules.
This publication is generally based on information
available to AEMO as at 30 October 2023 unless otherwise indicated.
Executive summary © AEMO 2023 | Draft 2024 Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity Market 6 – 87 Page PDF
A plan for investment in the energy transition
Australia needs an energy system that delivers secure, reliable and affordable electricity. In the
past, we have depended on coal-fired generation. Now, the way Australia generates electricity is
changing – from fossil-fuelled to renewable energy.
With coal retiring, renewable energy connected with transmission, firmed with storage and backed
up by gas-powered generation is the lowest cost way to supply electricity to homes and businesses
throughout Australia’s transition to a net zero economy.
Governments have set 2050 as the target for a net zero economy, with each jurisdiction having
interim emissions and renewable energy targets to meet that deadline. Federal Government policy
is a 43% reduction in 2005-level emissions by 2030, with 82% of electricity in the National
Electricity Market (NEM) supplied from renewable sources.
The energy transition, well underway, is by far the biggest transformation of the NEM since it was
formed 25 years ago. As well as the shift from coal to firmed renewables, it will treble capacity to
meet future demand, and enable a two-way flow of electricity across the grid.
Published every two years, AEMO’s Integrated System Plan (ISP) is a roadmap for the transition of
the NEM power system, with a clear plan for essential infrastructure to meet future energy needs.
Previous iterations of the ISP set an ambitious pace for investment. Projects now need to be
delivered, as planned. About 90% of the NEM’s coal fleet is forecast to retire before 2035 in
AEMO’s most likely future scenario, and the entire fleet before 2040.
This Draft 2024 ISP is a milestone on an industry-wide journey to prepare the ISP. It reflects
consultations with consumer and community representatives, governments, energy market authorities,
investors and developers, network planners, industry bodies and science and technology institutions.
The Draft 2024 ISP is a robust plan that calls for urgent investment in generation, firming
and transmission that targets secure, reliable and affordable electricity through the energy
transition, with its transmission elements delivering $17 billion in net market benefits to
consumers.
• The energy transition is already well underway, breaking renewable generation records while
managing inherent tensions. The ISP is a roadmap to complete the NEM’s transition (Part A).
• The ISP’s optimal development path sets out the needed generation, firming and transmission,
which would deliver significant net market benefits for consumers and economic opportunities in
Australia’s regions (Part B).
• The transition is urgent, and faces significant risks if market and policy settings, social licence
and supply chain issues are not quickly addressed (Part C).
AEMO welcomes feedback on this Draft 2024 ISP by 16 February 2024. Stakeholder feedback
will inform the final 2024 ISP due for release by 28 June 2024
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It is a robust plan with this disclaimer:
So essentially useless. AEMO will be in a position to say we never made forecasts of the cost to consumers.
This is what is killing Australia productivity. Spending vast sums of money on stuff that is worse than useless.
Anyhow, I doubt Victoria will get very far with any of this. Any investor with their eyes open would avoid Victoria like the plague. Both brands of State politics are hopeless and leading the State into insurmountable debt.
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“Coal power’s economic viability is collapsing faster than expected, according to the latest electricity grid road map, as plant failures combine with an east coast heatwave to spur requests for households to reduce their energy use.
“Coal-fired generators, the ageing workhorses of Australia’s electricity supply, are now retiring. They are less reliable, more difficult to maintain and less competitive against firmed renewable supply,” the operator said in its biennial integrated system plan, ”
Well, AEMO, its just too bad we don’t have a firmed renewable supply and will not have one in the foreseeable future! What’s the great renewables plan?? Replace coal with gas?? They slip that word ‘firmed’ in everywhere and hope no-one questions it.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/heat-on-electricity-grid-as-coal-exits-faster-than-forecast-20231214-p5ergd.html
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“Scam alert: QR codes”
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2023/12/scam-alert-qr-codes.html
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I guess it is worth reminding people but unremarkable. A QR code is just a link so it is like saying make sure you know what you are clicking on – like the link you added. Well duh.
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Eh? Gee –
See #14.1.1
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How one gets experience – read it all
“The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing”
https://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2023/12/the-only-thing-necessary-for-triumph-of.html
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Now scientists say BREATHING is bad for the environment: Gases we exhale contribute to 0.1% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions
Whether it’s eating less meat or cycling instead of driving, humans can do many things to help prevent climate change.
Unfortunately, breathing less isn’t one of them.
That might be a problem, as a new study claims the gases in air exhaled from human lungs is fueling global warming.
Methane and nitrous oxide in the air we exhale makes up to 0.1 per cent of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions, scientists say.
And that’s not even accounting for the gas we release from burps and farts, or emissions that come from our skin without us noticing.
The new study was led by Dr Nicholas Cowan, an atmospheric physicist at the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology in Edinburgh.
‘Exhaled human breath can contain small, elevated concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both of which contribute to global warming,’ Dr Cowan and colleagues say.
‘We would urge caution in the assumption that emissions from humans are negligible.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12859057/Now-scientists-say-BREATHING-bad-environment-Gases-exhale-contribute-0-1-UKs-greenhouse-gas-emissions.html
In one day, the average person breathes out around 500 litres of the greenhouse gas CO2 – which amounts to around 1kg in mass. This doesn’t sound much until you take into account the fact that the world’s population is around 6.8 billion, collectively breathing out around 2500 million tonnes of the stuff each year – which is around 7 per cent of the annual CO2 tonnage churned out by the burning of fossil fuel around the world.
YOU are the carbon they want to eliminate.
They’re not even hiding it any more.
GA (13.1.1) has generously offered to stop breathing.
We should encourage fellow lefties to do the same.
/humour
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Not Breathing, is bad for us poor humans.
To breathe or not to breathe, that is the question.
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Gen Z are scaling back on eating out because they have ‘menu anxiety:’ They’re too scared to talk to waiters and inflation-bloated bills freak them out.
Gen Z, who are currently aged between 11 and 26 years old, lost out on large gatherings for a handful of the formative years because of COVID and lockdowns, with many still suffering social anxiety as a result.
Studies have found that this has exacerbated itself in professional settings, for example a 2023 report revealed nine in 10 graduates say they avoid in-person work events because of social anxiety, and nearly a quarter are uncomfortable speaking up in team meetings and sharing their ideas.
The study, conducted by British restaurant chain Prezzo, asked more than 2,000 people about how at ease they felt while eating out. The group that reported the most ‘menu anxiety’ was Gen Z, with 34% of 18 to 24 year olds admitting they ask other people at the table to speak to waiters on their behalf, because they are too nervous to talk.
That’s a significantly higher figure than the average level of anxiety felt by customers, with the overall average of those who feel awkward speaking to waiting staff standing at 21%.
Younger diners said they also wanted to be prepared for the situation. Although around half of customers said they’d check the menu before going out for dinner, almost 40% of Gen Z customers said they simply wouldn’t go out for dinner if they couldn’t check the menu first.
https://www.newsbreak.com/news/3263902055751-gen-z-are-scaling-back-on-eating-out-because-they-have-menu-anxiety-they-re-too-scared-to-talk-to-waiters-and-inflation-bloated-bills-freak-them-out
With USA restaurant prices up 24% since last year, the dysfunctional gen-z’ers restaurant of choice will have a drive through, although the food quality, price and presentation there is destroying them too.
Do we even want to go into the workplace and see how inept gen Z is there?
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Friday humour – xmas nativity scene
https://imgbox.com/LqfRQoth
You cannot unsee it now.😁
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I’m not going to try, in view of your last comment.
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GraphCast: AI model for faster and more accurate global weather forecasting
Published 14 NOVEMBER 2023
Our state-of-the-art model delivers 10-day weather predictions at unprecedented accuracy in under one minute
The weather affects us all, in ways big and small. It can dictate how we dress in the morning, provide us with green energy and, in the worst cases, create storms that can devastate communities. In a world of increasingly extreme weather, fast and accurate forecasts have never been more important.
In a paper published in Science, we introduce GraphCast, a state-of-the-art AI model able to make medium-range weather forecasts with unprecedented accuracy. GraphCast predicts weather conditions up to 10 days in advance more accurately and much faster than the industry gold-standard weather simulation system – the High Resolution Forecast (HRES), produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
GraphCast can also offer earlier warnings of extreme weather events. It can predict the tracks of cyclones with great accuracy further into the future, identifies atmospheric rivers associated with flood risk, and predicts the onset of extreme temperatures. This ability has the potential to save lives through greater preparedness.
GraphCast takes a significant step forward in AI for weather prediction, offering more accurate and efficient forecasts, and opening paths to support decision-making critical to the needs of our industries and societies. And, by open sourcing the model code for GraphCast, we are enabling scientists and forecasters around the world to benefit billions of people in their everyday lives. GraphCast is already being used by weather agencies, including ECMWF, which is running a live experiment of our model’s forecasts on its website.
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Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting
Abstract
Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but does not directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. Here, we introduce “GraphCast,” a machine learning-based method trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25° resolution globally, in under one minute. GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones tracking, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.
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Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting – 156 PDF
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GraphCast: Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting
This package contains example code to run and train GraphCast. It also provides three pretrained models:
GraphCast, the high-resolution model used in the GraphCast paper (0.25 degree resolution, 37 pressure levels), trained on ERA5 data from 1979 to 2017,
GraphCast_small, a smaller, low-resolution version of GraphCast (1 degree resolution, 13 pressure levels, and a smaller mesh), trained on ERA5 data from 1979 to 2015, useful to run a model with lower memory and compute constraints,
GraphCast_operational, a high-resolution model (0.25 degree resolution, 13 pressure levels) pre-trained on ERA5 data from 1979 to 2017 and fine-tuned on HRES data from 2016 to 2021. This model can be initialized from HRES data (does not require precipitation inputs).
The model weights, normalization statistics, and example inputs are available on Google Cloud Bucket.
Full model training requires downloading the ERA5 dataset, available from ECMWF.
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Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind speed
00
If you live in Australia and do not have a plan to exit the electricity grid then you should start your plan now.
I have just gone through Appendix 8 of the ISP and it makes no mention of the overall capital involved. It is all about the benefit of one scenario versus another. All based on coal disappearing and wind and solar crippling from the present level. As well as firming in the form of gas, batteries and hydro also tripping from the present level.
https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/isp/2022/appendix-6-cost-benefit-analysis.pdf?la=en
If they included the total cost of what is being proposed it would condemn the report to the trash.
There is no way China can build stuff fast enough to meet this ISP. The COP28 pledge to triple “renewable” energy by 117 countries will prove hollow. China could never make enough stuff to do that and no developed country is willing to burn coal to achieve it.
20
You can purchase a natural gas home generator for a few thousand dollars
Does anyone have the running costs for a natural gas generator vs current electicity costs (and likely costs that should be expected to double in the next few years)?
10
If you don’t build redundancy into your home system you are no better off than you were relying on the dodgy mains supply.
21
Correct. The simplest way to do it is to buy scalable systems. If one module fails, it can be removed, leaving a functional system albeit with reduced capacity.
Simple things like propane on demand instant water heaters (IWH) are cheap and a good thing to have on hand.
You can dump your hot water cylinder and use an IWH instead with some plumbing.
00
Gas, diesel, whatever, would all still cost way more than grid prices. The problem is going to be the intermittency of mains supply. The solution is integrated, a genset diesel generator that comes on when mains goes off.
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Epic new study just revealed the true horror and lies behind the vaxx
A recent study published in Nature showcases a groundbreaking, inhalable COVID vaccine. Administered in a single dose, it promises robust mucosal immunity and protection in multiple species, including non-human primates, and is effective against all variants, preventing transmission. This revelation has sparked intense debate about the original Big Pharma vaccine that was feverishly distributed worldwide. This new study implies that the initial vaccine was never designed to stop the virus’s spread. This raises a critical question: why on earth did governments around the world push so strongly for everyone to get vaccinated?
According to these experts, the vaccine simply doesn’t work and was never intended to be effective. What a revelation.
https://revolver.news/2023/12/epic-new-study-just-revealed-the-true-horror-and-lies-behind-the-vaxx/
“An exciting development for a new Covid vaccine: inhaled single dose induces strong mucosal immunity and protection in multiple species, including non-human primates, and prevents transmission across all variants assessed.”
Do I see more pollies and health experts making sudden resignation announcements?
30
Bhagdi told that from the beginning that IM vacces are without value for nasal virus.
00
How about we get rid of the Reserve Bank? i.e. A Central Bank. It creates (prints) unlimited amounts of money on which we all pay (interest), and which goes to where? To third parties such as the Rothchilds. Why does the Government not print its own money at NO INTEREST? A no-brainer I would have thought. Watch Argentina.
20
Then the Government will become responsible for the inflation that it creates by its own spending. Then we will have accountability. At last! Look at how the P.M will pooh-hooh the idea. The idea of taking responsibility! Shudder at the thought.
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Isn’t that what the 1930’s Germans did?
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Taat’s correct. And who was in charge? Hitler!
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That is not meant to glorify the dictator. It is simply to acknowledge that he lead a ravaged country back to wealth ad prosperity. Sadly, the Germans used this new-found wealth and prosperity to wage war. Imagine what could have been achieved if they had chosen the path of peace.
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Yes, but it was also a very short-term existence. I’ve wondered if it was sustainable. Even Marxist economies did well for quite some time.
00
And yes, the problem with Mr. H was he said he loved his people so much it hurt, but took them to war and killed many good people and lost half of Europe to communism for 40 plus years. If he hadn’t maybe he would have been successful in his said goals. We will never know now.
And to revisionists who say he wanted peace with Britain, which is true, and that his hand was forced, are simply and willfully ignoring his aggression, accepting his excuses for it. It was German militarism in its pure form, the same as 25 years prior.
00
Any earnings of the Reserve Bank of Australia go to the Commonwealth:
https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/annual-reports/rba/2020/pdf/earnings-distribution-capital.pdf
Government spending above tax receipts and private banks’ ever growing “assets’ (mostly home mortgages) create money. The Reserve Bank has purchased State and Federal debt through its quantitative easing program but that just supports the government spending programs. Any interest on the government bonds held by the RBA that results in RBA profit goes to the Commonwealth. The RBA simply works to control inflation. But that is very demanding when energy supplies are under attack from CO2 botherers who know nothing about sustaining life.
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Who does the interest paid on the debt go to? It is not profit, it yours and mine “hard earned”. Only earnings after costs are profit! Interest is an expense that goes to the lenders!
20
There is no reason why the Government itself cannot control inflation. It would then have to set its own interest rates and control spending! In other words, be accountable for its own mess creation instead of handing it to the Reserve Bank which is “independent”.
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The very good reason that the Govt isn’t allowed to create money is that politicians can’t be trusted, end of story!
Anytime that was tried they simply printed money non-stop to get their favourite projects completed so they could rake in the corruption it all entails.
You don’t put the kids in charge of the candy jar!
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KP, when was it tried, or are you being theoretical? They can be voted out after 3 years. By the way, what is stopping them now? Nothing! Sorry, your argument does not stack up.
00
Interesting.
00
The Guardian Cryptic Crossword surprises me sometimes.I don’t read it because it’s bonkers left but the puzzles are free on line. Still, you wonder if the compiler is a closet red neck.
Ultimately confusing toilets without identifying symbols (5)
00
Cyclone Jasper is breaking through into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
https://i.ibb.co/Kw1L046/himawari9-ir-03-P-202312150630.gif
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That’ll be good for the Gulf prawn fishery.
10
These EV Repair costs are astronomical
10
This is when reality bites ya on the bum. I think Henry Ford said that he would sell the car cheap but you would pay through the nose for the parts.
We motorists have lived with that ever since. We all know that a gearbox isn’t a third of the cost of building a car but we grin and bear it when we are quoted something outrageous for a replacement and we find a repairer who can fix the old one using outrageously priced parts.
I would suggest that no one is “ripping the motorist off” for batteries any more than they do every day with ICE repairs. Old habits die hard.
00
Agreed.
But labour is the biggest component of any service or repair bill.
00
Sometimes I’m made brutally aware of the generation gap. Watched a movie, Sunset, set in 1929 Hollywood with all its excesses.
The studio got Tom Mix (Bruce Willis) and Wyatt Earp (James Garner) together. It is quirky and you may enjoy it, free on YT. I told my son [50+] about it and got a blank stare – Tom who? I didn’t ask if he knew about Davy Crockett.
00
FWIW
“Southwest Has New Policy for the ‘Super Fat’ Passenger”
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2023/12/15/southwest-has-new-policy-for-the-super-fat-passenger-n599091
QANTAS?
00
I like the idea of charging for the passenger standing on the scales with their luggage.. However it all becomes moot when you are allowed only 4 flights per year. I’m hoping for a carbon market in Personal Carbon Allowances so I can sell my flights.
00
Politic at work… Victor Orban from Hungary has been vetoing the EU’s expansion into Ukraine for some time, and another vote was pushed this week.
In return for 10BillionEuros he left the room when the vote was taken, allowing the other 26 countries to agree to start the process. An abstention doesn’t count the same as a veto.
Now we know the price of Hungary, its like “Every woman is a whore, its a matter of how much is offered..”
https://warnews247-gr.translate.goog/aschimi-exelixi-gia-tin-perifereiaki-eirini-i-ee-xekina-entaxiakes-diapragmatefseis-me-oukrania-kai-moldavia-othoun-se-paratetameno-polemo-ti-rosia/?_x_tr_sl=el&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en-GB
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