Antarctic ice shelves are melting slower than they were 40 years ago

By Jo Nova

Despite the dreaded “polar amplification” and 1,000 new coal fired plants in China, apparently the fragile Antarctic ice shelves have barely changed in the last 40 years. Indeed, instead of fragmenting, they are melting slightly slower now than they were in 1980. Naturally, the researchers *know*, as only high priests can, that things will change any day now. The tipping point is just around the corner, hiding, ready to pounce.

Mankind has emitted fully 65% of our total carbon emissions since the year 1980 — and yet it has not done much at all to the melt-rate of the ice shelves of Antarctica. In fact, if anything, climate change is slowing the ice melting.

That’s 1.1 Trillion tonnes of man-made CO2, and no catastrophe to show for it.

The new study by Banwell et al used satellite microwave data and modeling of meltwater.

Antarctic Ice Shelves

GRL

Note that the “small but significant decrease” in melting gets headlined as “a minor change”. Since when where significant warming trends reported as just a “minor change” of indeterminate direction?

Antarctic ice shelves experienced only minor changes in surface melt since 1980, study finds

The results show Antarctic ice shelves overall have seen only minor changes in surface melt rates over the past 40 years, and the modeling results even show a small but significant decrease in melt rates during the study period.

The findings appear to be good news for the Antarctic region, but the researchers caution that they do expect Antarctic ice shelves to see higher surface melt in the coming decades.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the “small but significant” decrease in melt rates is visible to the naked eye.

 

Ice Shelves melting slower now, Antarctica. Graph.

Timeseries of observed and modeled melt days. All ice shelf regions in Antarctica. –Banwell

Since 1998 the Antarctic ice shelves have had cooler mean summer temperatures and lower meltwater volume. Which climate models predicted this?

Ice Shelves melting slower now, Antarctica. Summer Temperature. Graph.

Figure 4. Modeled meltwater production volume. (a) Modeled annual meltwater volume (Gt yr−1) over all ice shelves (black line, left y-axis) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 mean summer (November 1 to March 31) air temperature over all ice shelves (red solid line, right y-axis). Banwell

 

Feel the faith of the research team  — “it just hasn’t kicked off yet”.

“As air temperatures increase over the coming decades, we’re expecting a real increase in these surface melt rates up until the end of the century,” Banwell said. “So although we haven’t seen much change in melt rates yet, we will see that to come. It just hasn’t really kicked off yet.”

If Antarctic ice shelves were melting faster we would have seen headlines every year. Indeed we got them anyway — from August 2022 —  “Antarctica’s Ice Shelves Could be Melting Faster than We Thought.” That was Caltech, which modeled the effects of a small current running counterclockwise around Antarctica and predicted the ice sheets were melting more than the great climate models thought they would.

When will “The Team” admit they were wrong?

These are not the graphs of the Antarctic tipping point we were told to expect.

 

Ice Shelves melting slower now, Antarctica. Graph.

Banwell 1980 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL102744

Ice Shelves melting slower now, Antarctica. Graph.

Banwell 1980 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL102744

 

REFERENCE

Alison F. Banwell et al, Quantifying Antarctic‐Wide Ice‐Shelf Surface Melt Volume Using Microwave and Firn Model Data: 1980 to 2021, Geophysical Research Letters (2023). DOI: 10.1029/2023GL102744

9.6 out of 10 based on 85 ratings

87 comments to Antarctic ice shelves are melting slower than they were 40 years ago

  • #
    Glenn

    It must be very frustrating to the high priests of the climate change religion when the Earth refuses to co operate with their doom and gloom predictions. Thirty five years plus of ” we are all doomed ” and nothing has happened. The weather/climate I experience where I live now has not changed in 28 years..really inconvenient to some.

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    • #
      Hivemind

      I understand, considering how cold it is in most of America, Canada and Europe. A little bit of warming would be very useful.

      20

  • #
    David Maddison

    The IPCC has yet to produce a single model that is even close to reality.

    Of course, the models are not meant to be realistic. Their purpose is to generate scary stories to alarm ignorant people in order to render them more amenable to control plus profit from expensive solar and wind power and other “solutions” to supposed catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.

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  • #
    TdeF

    How can Antarctica be melting when even the summer temperature is -25C? And most of the continent is over 3,000metres tall?

    This does not stop the ABC from claiming Antarctica records have been tumbling this year with extreme heat.

    “Parts of eastern Antarctica were reportedly around 40 degrees Celsius above average, with Concordia weather station at 3,234 metres above sea level recording its highest ever temperature of -11.5 degrees Celsius.

    The March temperature record at Antarctica’s Vostok station was broken by almost 15C and the Terra Nova Base on the Antarctic coast hit +7C”

    Both of these statements were from reported ‘tweets’.

    The desperation to make Antarctica seem to be having a heat wave is obvious.

    “Terra Nova Bay is a bay which is often ice free, about 64 km (40 mi) long, lying between Cape Washington and the Drygalski Ice Tongue along the coast of Victoria Land, Antarctica.[1] It was discovered by the British National Antarctic Expedition (known as the Discovery Expedition) under Robert Falcon Scott, 1901–1904″ And no one questions publicly why it is ice free? Local Global Warming?

    Most of the tiny international bases on Antarctica are no closer to the North Pole than St. Petersberg, a city the size of Sydney. And Terra Nova while at 74S is on the mainland but the warmest place explorers could find without any real idea why that is the case.

    The floating ice blocks of the warm Arctic (average temperature 0C) and the mountain of ice which is Antarctica, a continent the size of South America could not be more different. But they are treated as both suffering from the same terrible Global Warming.

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    • #
      TdeF

      The essential view of every scientist must be skepticism. I see none in man made Global Warming. In fact I would love to know from anyone who believes it what their lived experience of Global Warming actually was? I can say in my experience that Melbourne, Australia is a much colder place than in a lifetime. And Sydney not passing 32C for over a year confirms it.

      And in this land of droughts and flooding rains and bushfires, politicians are wrecking the place for no reason I can understand unless that is their explicit intention.

      What is happening with windmills and distribution is environmental vandalism on a scale that Australia has never experienced. That Bowen and friends are saving the planet is absurd. The real question is why are they doing it?

      And why do none of them criticize China? Or is that the answer?

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      • #
        TdeF

        And with a winter average of -50C and a summer average of -25C, I fail to see how a degree of Global Warming is going to start melting Antarctica any time soon. So why do we get these headline stories of rapid melting when there is no evidence of it?

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        • #
          Greg in NZ

          Soon there’ll be photos, and modelled research papers to back them up, of the Dry Valleys close to the Ross Sea Ice Shelf, captioned with:

          WE’VE MELTED IT ALL!
          VALLEYS DRY AS A BONE –
          ANTARCTICA GROUND ZERO
          (donate to your favourite action here)

          Some folk-experts keep discovering what’s been known for centuries – even the name is a bit of a giveaway. Meanwhile the snow keeps piling on your Great Snowy Mountains…

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          • #
            Mike Jonas

            To ChatGPT – Please produce a series of heart-wrenching articles, for worldwide publication, showing how melting ice in Antarctica has doomed the human race to imminent extinction.

            They are not even half-way through publication of the ChatGPT articles.

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        • #
          Ronin

          I always get a chuckle from that one, as well as the one about the sea levels rising a meter if a certain amount of ice melts, the ocean covers a tad over 70% of the globes surface.

          70

          • #
            TdeF

            What I find amazing is how big the ice block which is Antarctica is. Two Australias! And 2-4km high, average as high as the ocean is deep. Plus with a temperature drop of 1C per hundred metres, it’s no surprise that the top is say 30-40C colder than the sea level bases. Quoting sea level base temperatures is silly, a few hundred people and lots of penguins and seals on the edges only , no more. It is uninhabitable. And it is still growing in the middle rapidly because any snow which falls just stays there!

            So when you calculate coverage by a seas with an average depth of 3.4km and they are all on land, you could view Antatarctica as another ocean on land, taking the average to 74%, 3% of which is Antarctica.

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            • #
              TdeF

              And as I so often point out and is obvious from the submersible disaster, 10 metres of ocean weigh as much as the entire atmosphere, so the oceans at a depth of 3.4Km are 340x the weight of all the air. And with 4x the heat capacity, 1400x the heat content.

              So if you want to understand climates you need to model only two things, ocean currents and solar cycles.

              The atmosphere of the climate models might be what we see as the weather, but it is not the source of the heat which drives the weather.

              And it is beyond my understanding that anyone claims to be able to predict climates from modelling the air. No heat, no energy comes from the air. Water controls our world and water in the air is a far greater greenhouse gas and 25 to 100x the concentration of CO2, even on a clear blue day.

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              • #
                Mike Jonas

                So if you want to understand climates you need to model only two things, ocean currents and solar cycles.“. That is absolutely correct, provided Earth’s movements are taken into account for the longer term (millenia plus). But it is a lot harder to do than it sounds because cloud feedback is so important and it appears that no-one yet understands it even a little bit. NB. By ‘cloud feedback’ I mean how ocean currents and solar cycles affect clouds and how clouds in turn affect the ocean currents. I am not referring to the ‘cloud feedback’ in the IPCC reports.

                In order to achieve this, a new kind of model is needed – one that starts with these high-level factors and works downwards to more detail, not the current crop of models that try in vain to work from minor detail upwards.

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        • #
          Gee Aye

          That is not the average for the ice shelves (the actual subject of the post) or the sea ice or the water that is underneath them. If they disappear glaciers speed up.

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          • #
            TdeF

            My point is that ice shelves are not the continent of Antarctica, but much thinner floating ice over water. Ice shelves and floating ice have been used to push the idea that Antarctica is melting. And it is not true, which is the point of the article.

            “Ice shelves are the floating extension of the Antarctic ice sheet as it pushes out over the ocean. As snow accumulates on the continent, its weight compresses to form glacial ice, which slowly pushes the ice sheet seawards. Ice shelves may be hundreds of kilometres across and hundreds of metres thick.”

            The ice shelves are an expression of the growing mass of ice on this massive and growing ice block continent over 3km high the force of which is pushing ice out into the ocean and is more an indication that the ocean is cooling or being cooled than that Antarctica is warming.

            Melting has nothing to do with it, which is my point. Firstly it’s not melting. Nothing is melting. Antarctica is growing.

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            • #
              Ronin

              Ice is shedding because like your old Charles Hope frig, the ice is growing and holding the door open and escaping.

              40

      • #
        PeterPetrum

        And Sydney not passing 32C for over a year confirms it.

        I think the BOM did manage it this year by pointing a solar panel (there for emergencies of course) directly at the Stevensons Screen. It lasted for 2 seconds probably.

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      • #
        Lawrie

        TdeF. Always ask the question “Who benefits?”. We know that Australian manufacturing did not benefit but Chinese manufacturing did. We know that Australian consumers did not benefit. We know that Australian energy users did not benefit but Chinese owned electricity companies are making a fortune. No Australian jobs were created from making wind turbines and solar panels but many Chinese jobs were created. There is a common thread here and I’m sure a wise person could find it. I guess Casanova Bowen will fail. BTW Ray Hadley invented the new descriptor which is very appropriate since everything Bowen touches he ………..

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    • #
      b.nice

      “And Terra Nova while at 74C”

      lol… I assume that is a typo ! 😉

      Terra Nova is at 74º 50′S

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    • #
      Gee Aye

      How can Antarctica be melting when even the summer temperature is -25C? And most of the continent is over 3,000metres tall?

      click on Jan 23 for Australian stations last summer http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/dwo/IDCJDW0920.shtml

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      • #
        b.nice

        Three stations are on the very margin of Antarctica.

        Macquarie Island is nowhere near the Antarctic mainland.

        Try again !

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        • #
          Gee Aye

          Look up

          antarctic-ice-shelves-are-melting-slower

          14

          • #
            Lawrie

            That should be “Antarctic-ice-shelves-are-melting-MORE SLOWLY.

            40

          • #
            b.nice

            So, absolutely nothing to do with the statement by TdeF, that you were quoted and was trying to counter… OK!

            “How can Antarctica be melting when even the summer temperature is -25C? And most of the continent is over 3,000metres tall?”

            30

        • #
          TdeF

          Precisely. Apart from the fringes in a few places, Antarctica is completely uninhabitable. So why not try the Amundsen Base at the South Pole?

          “At an elevation of 2,835 meters (9,300 feet), the South Pole has an average monthly temperature in the austral summer of -28°C; in the austral winter, the average monthly temperature is -60°C.”

          Here’s the Amundsen Station weather report.

          Seems it is heating up today from -59C to -55C. You have to wonder why because at the Winter Solstice yesterday it’s the middle of the night. For six months.

          Perhaps give them a call and ask how they are affected by Global Warming? But you might be reasonably considered a prank caller.

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      • #
        Ronin

        Have they been ‘homogenised, tuned, adjusted, faked’ at all ?

        50

    • #
      b.nice

      “And Terra Nova while at 74ºS is on the mainland but the warmest place explorers could find without any real idea why that is the case.

      Comparing its location with the location of volcanoes might give a hint 😉

      https://i0.wp.com/climatechangedispatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/antarctic-volcanoes-map.jpg?ssl=1

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terra_Nova_Bay

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      • #
        TdeF

        Yes, that was the implication that a scientist would ask why? Adherents of Global Warming never do. Why would one bay be free of ice an not others? Does no one ask questions?

        For example the Little Ice age where the Thames froze over reached nadir in 1870 and we have been warming since. But surely the explanation for the warming is likely to be the reverse of what caused the cooling, not industrialization. But when you have an agenda, everything proves your point. Questions, logic and skepticism are forbidden. What is needed is a religious belief in man made CO2 driven Global Warming.

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    • #
      BrianTheEngineer

      Terra Nova Bay is at the base of one of the drivers of tectonic activity caused by the differential rotation of the Antarctic continent and the rest of the crust.
      Bound to have cracks and fissures of magma seeping to the surface keeping it ice-free and cracking of ice sheets due to the pressure from the ground movements.

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    • #
      NuThink

      TdeF,
      is it possible that sublimation causes the ice to disappear, like the disappearing ice cubes in a frost free fridge?

      50

      • #
        TdeF

        There are two types of frost free fridge. Most just turn off regularly and let the surface ice melt and drip away as water without defrosting anything. There’s a drip tray underneath. And sometimes when you open them the air can be room temperature.

        The other more energy hungry ones have condensation in the air stream like the new electric dryers and actively heat exposed surfaces. You can tell these because the doors and walls can be warm to touch.

        One thing I would love on a refrigerator is a super cheap temperature gauge. And an alarm on the freezer in case the door is left open even a little or the power went off. It’s not a lot to ask from manufacturers, especially the ones who will put a TV screen and icemaker on the door but no alarm on the freezer.

        70

        • #
          Gary S

          Our Westinghouse fridge has both a temperature gauge and a door alarm.

          20

          • #
            Gee Aye

            yep. Quite common. Or you can lash out and pay $30 or more dollars for aftermarket.

            I have to contend with an online temperature management system that monitors many temperature controlled devices so, for once, I am likely not talking from my a

            22

        • #

          Yes , ditto here , our F&P fridge/freezer has alarms on both compartments and temp gauges.
          The problem is that fridges are so reliable, that it is easy to end up owning one that is 10+ yrs old without the latest features.

          50

        • #
          Sirocco

          Ditto here as well. My LG fridge bought 17 years ago has separate temp gauges for the cabinet as well as the freezer, and a door alarm for each. It also has an ice maker/ cold water outlet.

          30

  • #
    Lawrie

    It is a pity the “moron” AKA Chris Bowen does not read this information. We would possibly be saved from the cobweb of wires coming soon to a paddock near you. When will they ever learn, when will they ever learn? But I feel the end of the great scare is coming, not through science, but through the reality of blackouts and thankfully the action of some farmers who could refuse permission to Transfield to build their transmission lines. Added to that will be the difficulty in sourcing the necessary steel and wires due to competition. Will it be Chinese steel using Australian iron ore and coal. Stupid is as stupid does.

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    • #
      Ronin

      ‘Boofhead Bowen’, AKA BoBo.

      70

    • #
      Ronin

      The ‘no underground’ mob say the cables run at between 50 deg and 100 deg, is that why we see birds perched on them, they are warming their feet.

      20

      • #
        Lawrie

        They ran a 500kV line through our farm (over a corner actually) from Bayswater to Mount Piper in the 1980s or late 70s. An engineer told me the wires are uncomfortably hot for birds and I never saw any perched on them. By contrast when the galahs had a family reunion the 33 and 11 kV lines would bow a great deal. It also helped in the winter by preventing ice forming.

        20

  • #
    Neville

    AGAIN Eschenbach covered both poles in his full coverage of their CC BS and fraud.
    He linked to the NATURE study that found no warming in Antarctica since 1950.
    And the Turner et al BAS study found that the Antarctic peninsula had cooled since 1998. Devastating news for the corrupt CC extremists, but the MSM and our donkey pollies ignored the data as usual.
    But who cares if we continue to WASTE TRILLIONs of $ on this corruption and use TOXIC W & S and wreck our electricity grids and our environment ABOVE and BELOW ground for NOTHING?

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/04/25/wheres-the-emergency/

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  • #
    Ian Hill

    There’s a reason a new research base was constructed at the South Pole about twenty years ago with the ability to be raised when (not if) necessary. It replaced the original base which was about to be permanently buried by ice and received its last visitors in the summer of 2004-05.

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  • #
    Neville

    BTW even the Guardian tells the truth sometimes.
    Here’s they reference the 2010 recording of minus -94.7 C in east Antarctica and that beats the previous cold record of minus -89.2 C.
    So how much colder temperatures do the extremists and left wing loonies want to see?
    According to Gore, Mann and Hansen etc we should be frying by now, so what went wrong?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/10/coldest-temperature-recorded-earth-antarctica-guinness-book

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  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    Changes to ‘surface’ melt rates are not the only source of melting for Antarctic ice, particularly the sea ice.

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    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      True. Those volcanoes under some of that ice help a bit.

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      • #
        el+gordo

        West Antartica shows significant ice melt because of volcanic influence, however East Antarctica has increasing mass balance.

        The problem we have to confront is the propaganda.

        ‘An international group of scientists who work with satellite data say the acceleration in the melting of Earth’s ice sheets is now unmistakable.

        ‘They calculate the planet’s frozen poles lost 7,560 billion tonnes in mass between 1992 and 2022. Seven of the worst melting years have occurred in the past decade.’ (BBC)

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      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        Those volcanos were always there. Global warming is a better fit

        17

        • #
          b.nice

          No, the fabricated myth of “global warming” does not fit the isolated melting over known active volcanic areas, and increasing ice amounts elsewhere.

          Perhaps you ought to look at the 3rd graph, which shows decreasing meltwater runoff !

          Try to explain that using the global warming myth. !

          31

    • #
      el+gordo

      Sea ice has been reduced because of La Nina.

      41

  • #
    Neville

    Don’t forget that Antarctica plus Greenland contain over 99% of the freshwater ice on Earth.

    https://nsidc.org/learn/parts-cryosphere/ice-sheets/ice-sheet-quick-facts

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  • #
    Neville

    Willis Eschenbach explains how they can lie with their graphs of ice mass loss.
    Boy that straight line doesn’t look very threatening at all, does it?

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/06/17/graphic-lying/

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Back in the day, before post-modernist “science”, for something to qualify as a model it had to be experimentally validated…

    I particularly liked my introduction to modelling taught via demonstrations in statitisical mechanics.

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    • #
      Gary S

      I thought you had to be tall, skinny and cute to qualify as a model.

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      “a model had to be experimentally validated…”

      Exactly.

      Models are not meant to be fortune telling or advertising.

      Modelling is to help predict future events and increase the accuracy of the prediction in a wholly scientific manner.

      20

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        As an example of the limitations of “modelling” we could consider the atmosphere.

        A model could be constructed for the atmosphere, but it would be constrained to the limits set by the presence of water vapour and only be valid between 0 and 100°C.

        Any “modelling” below 0°C would require a new model.

        10

  • #

    The Antarctic is stable, that’s clear,
    Yet alarmists spout tipping-point fear,
    That a great melt disaster,
    Of its shelves will spread faster,
    Once climate-change kicks into gear.

    191

  • #
    Honk R Smith

    ‘Polar amplification’?
    Is that related to ‘intensification’?
    I remember the good old days when there were just poles and vortexes.
    Now the are 80+ iterations and counting.
    (I’ve run into a couple of vortexes in my time, my pole barely escaped in one piece.)

    I suppose amplification could intensify.
    Someday will we save ice from become becoming water, and water will no longer fear becoming ice.
    Water/Ice equity.
    Carbonless at last.

    81

  • #
    Neville

    Here’s more real SOLID proof that we haven’t seen any dangerous global warming since 1914.
    Daniel Fitzhenry is the Oceanographic Surveyor for NSW and explains the BOM SL data for Fort Denison Sydney and tells us it is the most accurate data over that long period of time.
    Everyone should spend a few minutes to watch Andrew Bolt interview him and then hopefully start to think and WAKE UP.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mjOmsqIibk

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    • #
      Neville

      Sorry Daniel Fitzhenry is the Hydrographic Surveyor for NSW. In a hurry and didn’t check it properly.

      40

    • #
      b.nice

      Fort Denison high tide has a trend of just 0.75 mm/year.

      After a drop in recent years, current levels are similar to those of 1914.

      The tidal range is some 2m per day.

      https://i.ibb.co/C2k0Qf2/fort-denison.png

      I should also add that geological surveys have shown that Fort Denison may be sinking at, iirc, some 0.2-0.4mm/year (unfortunately I can’t find the report)

      70

  • #
    Ronin

    ‘Could be, might be, expected, scientists believe’ all very scientific, NOT. !

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  • #
    Richard C (NZ)

    >“As air temperatures increase over the coming decades, we’re expecting….” – Banwell et al

    First an affirmation of the future (?) then an expectation (belief) that, apparently, segues from that affirmation. Faith in Seers is now an intellectual requirement for science?

    70

  • #
    crakar24

    You need to search for “Mario Buildreps” he tries to explain why Greenland has so much ice and sits partly outside the arctic circle, very interesting theory well worth investigating

    https://www.mariobuildreps.com/

    20

  • #
    Richard C (NZ)

    Anyone running MS Windows can access a global weather map from the Start page via the task bar (Open Map).

    Right now in the Antarctic interior I see -67C and 0C air encroaching well past midway between Antarctica and Australia.

    A large low pressure system in the Great Australian Bight has 10C at centre, Albany 10, Perth 11, Kalgoorlie 9. Wind speed west to east from Albany is 50 km/h and taking the cold air from the south with it.

    Adelaide and Hobart are getting warmer air from the north (13,11) but almost everywhere east of Mt Gambier (10) is in single figures (mountains freezing). Melbourne 9 but around Sale 11. Wind speed is in all directions, mostly single figures but Bass Strait 25 km/h i.e. nothing mainland to move that cold air away.

    The Antarctic coast below Australia is -5 to -20 (SST anomaly below normal) so not much “melting” today.

    NZ only has those Australian temps in the Southern Alps and Timaru south at low altitude, the rest is getting warm air (and lots and lots of rain) from the north. If we had the same Antarctic sourced cold air encroachment that Australia has now NZ would be freezing all over.

    I’d settle for winter temperature just as it is now in NZ (except for cyclones) but it’s only a matter of time before a similar cold air encroachment from Antarctica occurs. That was the norm until the “atmospheric river” came our way from the tropics – complete with devastating cyclones.

    20

    • #
      Richard C (NZ)

      >”it’s only a matter of time before a similar cold air encroachment from Antarctica occurs [in NZ]”

      Might not have long to wait. The same MS weather map as previous has a forecast out to April 2. By then the Antarctic cold wave has moved from West Australia across to New Zealand.

      But there’s a new cold wave heading to WA. And the midday April 1 forecast has southern WA colder than now.

      20

      • #
        Richard C (NZ)

        Make that forecast out to July – not April.

        20

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          1016 isobar runs from Tahiti southwestwards to Chch & Southland – no wonder there’s no snow on the hills – high pressure ‘squeeze’ from the tropical northeast: Gisborne drowns again. This, too, will change.

          WA’s Bluff Knoll had an overnight dusting with -5C – fun for the novelty.

          30

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      Only 5°C at the top of the Blue Mountains at 5:00pm and wind chill down to -2.5. Bloody freezing – no gardening today.

      50

  • #
    Maptram

    Then there’s the question about where all the onsite researchers and their support teams get the energy they need to stay warm and alive in such an inhospitable climate. I expect they would need way more than us in warmer climates and the “free” energy sources wouldn’t work. In fact everything they use would need to be shipped in, most likely by fossil fuel powered ships and aircraft. So way above average CO2 emissions per head than anywhere else.

    50

  • #
    Ross

    With AGW/mm climate change, all the “boomers” who started this scam have now increasingly become “ doomers”. Even within ag science there have been multiple trials showing increased yields under higher CO2 levels, yet the final paragraph of the summation always has the doomsday predictions. There was a time when real scientists just examined the data and made conclusions from that. Now they all want to be Nostradamus.

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    • #
      TdeF

      “increased yields under higher CO2 levels”

      Of course. Photosynthesis is H2O+CO2+sunlight = hydrated CO2 or carbohydrate. More CO2 and more water and more sunlight and you get more life. In these days of historically low CO2, the effect is dramatic as every hothouse farmer knows.

      But what is even more important is that with the 14% increase in CO2 since 1988 when satellites started and the 14% obviously consequential increase in Greenery reported by NASA, an area the size of Brazil has gone green. And CO2 has NOT been dragged down.

      This is profoundly important. No matter how many trees are grown, CO2 is unaffected. So goodbye carbon credits, carbon farms, nett zero.

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      • #
        TdeF

        And Albanese’s Safeguard Mechanism starts in a week. 5% a year reduction in emissions for 7 years. Or you have to buy Australian Carbon Credits. Never heard of these? They were legislated in 2011 in the “Carbon Credits (Carbon Farming Initiative) Act 2011)

        So having elected successive governments from 2000 to 2023 which promised no Carbon Taxes, we are about to get another massive carbon tax on every thing we do or buy. This is in addition to the LGCs and STCs for windmills and solar panels, your cash flowing overseas like a river. All will be run by the ‘Clean Energy Authority’ which is tasked with decarbonizing all life in Australia. Which is a bit sad as all life on the planet comes entirely from CO2.

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    Ronin

    Ice is shedding because like your old Charles Hope frig, the ice is growing and holding the door open and escaping.

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    Ross

    At the nadir of the last period of glaciation, the sea level was 130m lower than today and there was 3000m of ice over significant portions of North America and European continents and Antarctic sea ice likely extended to the Cape of Good Hope and Tasmania. That’s an absolutely stupendous amount of ice. 3km thick!!! That ice wasn’t by your ice block in the fridge method. That ice slowly accumulated via increased snow precipitation. So, during the ice age the weather patterns must have been predominantly from equatorial regions to the poles. Lots of moisture laden air driven to eg. Antarctica where it turned into snow, layer upon layer for 10’s of thousand of years. During the ice age those parts of the earth must have been almost a continuous blizzard. So almost like the depiction of the northern wall in Game of Thrones. Give me global warming any bloody day. Where I live it’s been frigid all damn week, there cant be any heat left in Antarctica at all.

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    Just been writing an article trying to work out how to prepare for a nuclear war, and by chance came back to look at this blog which I used to visit frequently. It’s quite bizarre! I can’t see what all the fuss is about. The climate is very normal, there is absolutely nothing of concern. In contrast, the world is facing a nuclear war. Why is anyone still talking about the climate?

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      Richard C (NZ)

      Mike >”Why is anyone still talking about the climate?”

      Because this:

      “One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with the environmental policy anymore, with problems such as deforestation or the ozone hole”

      “We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy,”

      Ottmar Edenhofer, Co-chair of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group on Mitigation of Climate Change from 2008 to 2015.

      # # #

      Climate is a proxy. Yes we’re talking about climate, but we’re not really.

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    Yonason

    Just a reminder…

    Below 0 deg C ice doesn’t “melt,” it “sublimates.” The air is dry, so any H2O in solid form looses mass as it turns to gas.

    When I was a kid I’d watch shows about exploring the poles. I remember one expedition arriving at a previous campsite, and when they tried to use the unopened tins of food, there was only powder inside. All the water had been sucked out of the cans because the partial pressure outside the can was was so near zero as to be almost a vacuum. A higher outdoor temperature would have caused higher air moisture, and the sublimation would not have occurred. One of my first lessons in physical chemistry.

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    Don Gaddes

    It should be obvious by now, that the warming of the Pacific Ocean, is caused primarily by submarine volcanism associated with the ‘Rim of Fire’ – NOT AGW.
    There is no ENSO – and never has been.

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    BartenderUK

    Mankind has nothing to do with the melt rate of the ice shelves of Antarctica. In fact, if anything it is the Sun that makes all the climate changes here on Earth.

    Ironically the increasingly colder air in the higher atmosphere causes increased warming in the Arctic. The centrifugal force of the Earth pushes the polar jet streams further into the subtropics, which pulls up increasing flows of warm air into the Arctic regions. Paradoxically, the warming of the Arctic is the result of the cooling of the Earth. The intensity of the cloud-forming process has a lot to do with the cooling of the earth.

    The cloud-forming intensity, itself, is affected by the density of the cosmic-ray flux that is reaching the Earth.

    NASA’s Ulysses spacecraft has measured a 20% increase in the cosmic-ray flux received on the Earth over the time span of a decade. When the cosmic-ray flux is increasing, the cloud-forming process is intensified.

    The connection between cosmic-ray flux and cloud-forming intensity has been experimentally verified with the CLOUD project at the CERN laboratory in Europe, where artificial cosmic rays were injected into a reaction chamber filled with water vapor.

    It means the recognition of these changing cosmic conditions is critical for our time because we see in them a long-term down-ramping in progress towards another Little Ice Age coming up fast in the 2030s, from which the solar system may not recover.

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