JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Tuesday Open Thread

Late today. (oops)

10 out of 10 based on 7 ratings

84 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #
    Annie

    Crikey Jo! Rapid fire threads. You sure keep us busy! 😉

    50

  • #
    Chad

    “Green” Gas fired power plant for NSW !!
    Who is kidding who here ?….and for what reason ?
    95% LNG fueled with 5% GREEN Hydrogen ? ….from where ?
    green hydrogen does not exist beyond a Green spin doctors wet dream .
    And 200 tons per year within 4 years.. …..well that is confidence !
    And further spin,…. the intention to burn pure hydrogen in an OC gas turbine !!
    … that is another dream that has yet to be cracked…by all the worlds best turbine engineers !
    Maybe this is just a test case to flush out the arguments and identify the opponents ahead of a bigger plan ?

    150

    • #

      Chad
      In a world of green dreamers, everything is possible, even a perpetual motion machine.

      They are over pessimistic about the future (climate emergency) yet over optimistic about their alleged solution (Green New Ordeal)

      Every problem can and will be solved:

      No sun, no wind — no problem.

      Too expensive batteries, too long to charge an EV — no problem.

      Brownouts and blackouts from renewables — no problem.
      Candles and flashlights are romantic — and you can sit around a campfire in your back yard cooking your meals, and singing Kumbaya.

      To make green dreams come true, they write them on a piece of paper that says “Law” or “Regulation” on top, make a speech, and they are sure technology will find a solution to any feasibility problems.

      This is the green paradise, where they are smarter than you, on every subject, and you need their direction to live your life “properly”.

      So if the energy used to make green hydrogen is greater than the energy that can be derived from green hydrogen, that’s no problem.

      Old fogies like me, who studied engineering in the stone age, may not understand.

      In green dreams, anything is possible, and old fashioned science has become “obsolete”.

      The result:
      It’s impossible to debate green dreamers.
      You live in reality (the present) and
      they live in a fantasyland (their imaginary future paradise).
      Debate is impossible.
      Unfortunately.

      200

      • #

        “Green Dreamers” – thanks Richard, that’s a keeper. I’ll credit you [and Jo] and post it on my farcebook page. Now that Mr Zuck is not in danger of being sent to Gizmo for trea$on, I have been trying to hang on to my FB page (for reasons unrelated to climate).
        Interesting phenomenon: couple of fb “friends” have said that if a posting of mine picks up the “fact check” blob, or the “Independent fact-checkers say that this information could mislead people” then they are more likely to look at what I have posted.

        30

      • #
        Hanrahan

        In a world of green dreamers, everything is possible, even a perpetual motion machine.

        First thing that crossed my mind too.

        30

    • #
      Ted1

      A red herring?

      20

  • #
    Mike of NQ

    I just looked at the UAH Satellite temperature record for March and April 2021. Both are negative and below the 1991 tp 2000 average. Is the Earth really warming at 1.5 degrees per century? What percentage can be accounted for by the heat island or urban effect, by selective homogenised and manipulated temperature data, by poor placement of weather stations, etc.

    90

    • #

      Mike of NQ:

      Please don’t focus on one month (or one year) of this highly variable, non-linear average temperature data.

      Climate is a 30 year, or longer, trend — many months, not one or two.

      The linear trend line for UAH from January 1979 to April 2021
      is 0.14 degrees C. per decade,
      similar to the surface temperature compilations.

      The urban heat island effect will not influence the 71% of the planet that is water. And the effect on land is hard to measure. But it does exist.

      The causes of the warming since the mid-1970s are unknown and unknowable. Natural causes could be responsible for all the warming since the mid-1970s. Humans could have caused all the warming since the mid-1970s. The correct answer is no one knows.

      There is a little science, using lab experiments, where CO2 appears to have a mild, harmless warming effect IN A LAB closed system experiment, using artificially dried air.

      And our planet HAS had mild harmless warming since the mid-1970s.

      But no one can prove the actual warming was caused by CO2.

      I’m happy to assume some warming was caused by CO2, but I loved the mild harmless global warming since the mid-1970s, so I may be biased !

      The common “warmunist’ process is to ignore the need for proof, declare the science is settled, character attack non-believers, and then debate how much money to spend to “fight” climate change. Climate change is their religion.

      You are showing great intelligence by questioning the temperature data, especially before UAH in 1979. The numbers before World War II are not fit for scientific analysis, IMHO. The numbers in the 1800s are worthless — there were few weather stations in the Southern Hemisphere, and sparse coverage in many areas outside outside of Europe and the United States. And measuring sea surface temperatures with buckets and a thermometer, almost entirely in Northern Hemisphere shipping lanes, sounds like a high school science project

      We know the climate today is considerably warmer than in the cold late 1600s, and we should be happy about that. But leftists are never happy about the climate … or anything else — they always want to change things … with them in charge of all the changes, of course !

      81

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Mike, as Richard says, we need to take a longer view.

      Take sea levels over the last seven thousand years for example.

      If oceans have fallen by up to six metres over the last seven thousand years then we can imply a corollary.

      That “lost” water is somewhere else, and that somewhere else is the earths ice caps.

      Ice doesn’t increase in a warming climate.

      The falling sea levels suggest falling temperature.

      51

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘The falling sea levels suggest falling temperature.’

        Was there a fall in sea level during the LIA?

        We know for a fact that La Nina causes a momentary drop in sea level.

        00

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Thanks for highlighting my point.

          Yes, there was a cold patch a couple of hundred years ago, and yes we recovered, but in the longer term run I was describing it was just a blip. Probably not much different to what the Russian carribou and North Americans have suffered in the last decade.

          Ancient Geologists from the 1960s were aware that sea levels had fallen 1200 mm in the previous 2,000 years. Any movement up or down from that level since 1964 is essentially undetectable.

          It’s a big thing when you look into it, and we need to stop reacting to every minor fluctuation of its daily function or we’ll end up Green.

          Remember, 25,000 years ago New York central park was under an ice field almost a mile deep: that’s a lot of ice and it took a long time to melt it.

          The big picture tells us all we need. The daily ramp up we get from CNN&NNNNNN is just designed to send us scurrying around in circles chasing our tales.

          KK

          30

          • #
            el gordo

            Sea level throughout the LIA was flat, but during the MWP and our modern optimum there has been a small rise.

            00

            • #
              Kalm Keith

              El Gordo,
              You still want to avoid the obvious.

              About 20 to 25 thousand years ago the earth was at the LGM, last Glacial maximum.

              Then, in the space of 15,000 years things warmed up and the ice began to melt.

              Oceans rose about 130 metres with a bit of an overshoot and sea levels have fallen 6 to 7 metres over the last 7,000 years.

              The fall took the form of oscillations but always in the long term trending down.

              How much of that 6,000 mm drop has been recovered by your “rising sea levels”?

              Is it 20mm or 26?

              The truth is that in recent times sea level has been remarkably constant.

              Getting bogged down in micro analysis of a large scale phenomenon is not true or honest or useful science.

              00

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘Is the Earth really warming at 1.5 degrees per century?’

      Not really, looking ahead six months ENSO should remain in neutral and temperatures fairly flat.

      https://climateimpactcompany.com/weekly-enso-diagnostics-big-warm-up-in-the-equatorial-pacific-subsurface-in-april-2-2/

      As the Pacific Decadal Oscillation returns to its negative phase we should expect this six year pause in world temperature to continue. CO2 is powerless to alter this scenario and when the AMO goes neutral after the NH summer, theoretically temperatures should then fall, game over.

      11

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Does the USA have a problem.

    While looking at the news topics online I came across this;

    “Harris claims lack of ‘climate adaptation and climate resilience’ part of root causes of migrant crisis”.

    The fact that a non existent “Climate crisis” can be used to misdirect attention from a very real and dangerous border calamity is the ultimate.

    Modern politics at its best. Congratulations Kamala.

    90

    • #
      Yonniestone.

      Kamala and the swamp are a problem but half the population that accept this is even bigger, the same rings true for us and elsewhere.

      It’s not the nature of democracies or republics either, when something is wrong within the system it will always remain so.

      30

    • #

      “Harris claims lack of ‘climate adaptation and climate resilience’ part of root causes of migrant crisis”.

      Well, that’s a step up from blaming Donald Trump.
      Or blaming “The Russians”

      And a vice president is not supposed to blame her president, so she gets an “A” for office politics.

      I would have blamed extraterrestrial aliens, but maybe that’s why I never got into politics.

      Whatever happened to to old concept of blaming the people who broke the law?

      10

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Meanwhile, over @theconversation (animal farm), they’re trying to re-write history, or are pig-ignorant …

    1.5℃ wasn’t plucked from thin air

    “The Paris Agreement was adopted by 195 countries in 2015.
    The inclusion of the 1.5℃ warming limit came after a long push by vulnerable, small-island and least developed countries for whom reaching that goal is their best chance for survival.
    The were backed by other climate-vulnerable nations and a coalition of high-ambition countries.

    The 1.5℃ limit wasn’t plucked from thin air – it was informed by the best available science.
    Between 2013 and 2015, an extensive United Nations review process determined that limiting warming to 2℃ this century cannot avoid dangerous climate change.”

    https://theconversation.com/the-1-5-global-warming-limit-is-not-impossible-but-without-political-action-it-soon-will-be-159297

    >> What?
    Is this a 97% science joke?

    The horse’s mouth …

    The Invention of the Two-Degree Target

    01.04.2010: “Two degrees is not a magical limit — it’s clearly a political goal,” says Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

    “The world will not come to an end right away in the event of stronger warming, nor are we definitely saved if warming is not as significant.

    The reality, of course, is much more complicated.”

    Schellnhuber ought to know.

    He is the father of the two-degree target.

    “Yes, I plead guilty,” he says, smiling.

    The idea didn’t hurt his career.

    In fact, it made him Germany’s most influential climatologist.

    Schellnhuber, a theoretical physicist, became Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chief scientific adviser — a position any researcher would envy.”

    http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/climate-catastrophe-a-superstorm-for-global-warming-research-a-686697-8.html

    >> So the “1.5℃ warming limit” came after the made up “2℃ target was deemed a “better chance of survival”.

    Sounds like junk science rooted in junked science!

    The Conversion, where they convert 97% junk science to propaganda.

    90

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    97% junk science fails again … stable climate promises update:

    May 5, 2021, BBC: “Recent [global warming] promises by major nations will bring the world a fraction closer to the prospect of a more stable climate, analysis suggests.”

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-56984691

    Wait.

    May 3, 2021: Victoria announces plan to halve carbon emissions by 2030 under net zero by 2050 target

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-02/victorian-government-targets-or-agriculture-transport-interim/100110140

    May 3, 2021: VIC Severe Weather Warning: Damaging Winds & Heavy Rain

    http://www.ewn.com.au/alerts/vic-severe-weather-warning-damaging-winds-504130.weather

    They’re gonna need larger promises.

    Science! … or something pretending to be that.

    50

  • #
    RicDre

    The Climate Propaganda Cabal

    Opinion by Kip Hansen – 5 May 2021

    If you’ve recently read a newspaper, popular magazine, science journal or watched a major television news outlet, you have probably seen news item after news item regarding the Climate Crisis or the Climate Emergency. Story after story, covering medicine, weather, ecology, biology, psychology, emigration, international conflict and pet care, all converge on the single story-line that there is an ongoing, ever-present terrifyingly dangerous Climate Crisis, affecting every aspect of human existence.

    As Dr. Judith Curry pointed out, TIME Magazine has published cover story titled Climate is Everything.

    Where is all this coming from? One of the major sources is Covering Climate Now, which characterizes itself this way:

    “CCNow collaborates with journalists and newsrooms to produce more informed and urgent climate stories, to make climate a part of every beat in the newsroom”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/04/the-climate-propaganda-cabal/

    30

  • #
    another ian

    “The Climate Propaganda Cabal”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/04/the-climate-propaganda-cabal/

    Looking behind those headlines

    10

  • #
    graham dunton

    yes it has merit in informing the uniformed

    Weekend Essay
    https://unherd.com/2021/05/how-science-has-been-corrupted/

    The pandemic has revealed a darkly authoritarian side to expertise
    BY Matthew Crawford

    10

  • #
    graham dunton

    China not caring a stuff, not unusual, you may say ?

    Another 21 Ton Chinese Rocket Booster Set to Land Somewhere Random
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2021/05/03/another-21-ton-chinese-rocket-booster-set-to-land-somewhere-random/

    30

  • #
  • #
    Strop

    Friends of Science newsletter #345

    https://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=84893068&msgid=253259&act=WB3V&c=1777404&destination=https%3A%2F%2Ffriendsofscience.org%2Findex.php%3Fid%3D2564&cf=9657&v=36753af6a13618c8fce9d68c9493d3bab025b3f5408dbd7991ebb1a5840c0780
    .
    .
    Topics:
    .
    The True Cost of Wind and Solar Electricity in Alberta
    .
    Electricity From the Sun: Reality Versus Fantasy
    .
    Hydrologic Extremes Across Australia
    .
    Trends in Antarctic Sea-ice Driven by ENSO–SAM over 2,000 Years
    .
    Northern Red Sea Corals Pass Heat Stress Test with Flying Colors
    .
    Failed climate predictions
    .

    10

  • #
  • #
    another ian

    “Why Is There No Correlation Between Masks, Lockdowns, and Covid Suppression?”

    https://mises.org/wire/why-there-no-correlation-between-masks-lockdowns-and-covid-suppression

    Via Chiefio

    FWIW so have at it

    20

    • #

      Sigh.

      When graphing two variables and ignoring 20 others it is easy to “find nothing”.

      Plus there is the problem that states with the worst outbreaks are often the ones who didn’t lockdown or use masks til too late. It becomes a self fulfilling prophesy. The cause and effect direction could be totally the opposite way at the same time.

      Studies that don’t include the two week lag are a waste of time.

      00

      • #
        Lucky

        “graphing two variables and ignoring 20 others”
        Agree there are other variables. So what then does it prove? As suggested, little if anything. Thus little evidence is found linking restrictions and cases. There is no evidence that restrictions increase cases, there is no evidence for the reverse that no restrictions increase cases, so why bother when the costs of restrictions are severe, known, and certain?

        The answer to that question is easy, benefits acrue to government who gain from appealing to the electorate who they are scaring, government appears strong and decisive (yuk), and the governing class, who are on secure incomes.
        The costs are borne by others, federal not state, small businesses. The health risks from masks go to those who cannot take off masks to make speeches and are not on ‘work-from-home’.

        Again, more insight comes from studying motivation -follow the money – than from data.

        Odd notes:
        –Wuhu is spread by aerosols not droplets. claim by (US) AMA. BMJ.
        –“CDC is not aware of any randomized control trials that show that masks or double masks or cloth face covering are effective against COVID-19 . .
        https://redrightdaily.com/foia-request-control-trials/
        I have to add here that CDC is not to be trusted.

        00

  • #
    Chad

    Not only EV Cars, but LOCALLY DEVELOPED EV long haul Trucks are being trialled on Aussie roads…complete with a practical “Battery Swap”. System . !.
    https://www.januselectric.com.au/

    30

    • #

      Battery swap seems to be a way to go for all EVs. It would require agreed international standards etc. Any thoughts anyone? Please, I am not debating whether EV should replace ICE.

      30

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        The important thing is that battery changing stations must not be near petrol pumps.

        30

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Biggest problem is the different models and shapes of the cars Gee Aye , unless you can maybe have two sizes to replicate fuel tanks plus a bit either side of the boot .
        In the caravan we looked at the battery is slung underneath and would be easy enough to swap out but you can’t do that with a car with any great ease .

        30

        • #

          True, or have battery “tanks” that are multiples of a particular size.

          I’m also imagining no human contact here. You pull up and dock the car and robot arm removes old battery/ies and puts in new one/s

          20

          • #
            robert rosicka

            If this link works you can see how they mount the battery in this caravan , it may be possible to make a thinner but car size version or make them in two sizes .

            https://www.retreatcaravans.com.au/product/erv/

            00

            • #
              Graeme#4

              The video seemed to stop after a while, but sufficient info. Only 14 kWh, so with all those appliances to run, you couldn’t stay off-grid for very long. And the minimal amount of solar panels on the van roof wouldn’t help much. Lots of glitz and glamour, but seemingly little substance. But then, I’m just being skeptical…

              10

          • #
            Hanrahan

            If battery swap for cars becomes “normal” it could not be universal: No manufacturer or driver wants to be the bunny at the end of the line with a dud battery pack.

            The only way it might work is with a strictly propriety battery pack for a given model or range where you pay for a lifetime guarantee. You then have the option of trickle charging at home and doing a battery swap at a dealership and continuing your journey in ten minutes.

            Just because I suggest it as a possibility doesn’t mean I think it would work.

            20

          • #
            Chad

            G A… you dont have to imagine it,.. it is already being done in the USA
            https://ample.com/how-it-works/

            10

            • #
              Graeme#4

              Looking at the Ample data and other links, I gained the impression that Ample is only just starting up, nothing out there yet. Where is a link to info that shows they have vehicles with swappable batteries already working?

              10

            • #
              Graeme#4

              It looks like the Ample system only swaps battery “ modules”, not the entire battery. Since these module are shoe-box sized, then I’m presuming that swapping an entire battery, if you wanted to do that, would be a long job. Not sure if this is the way to go.

              10

      • #
        Dave

        And what would be the increase in the number of batteries world wide?
        Triple maybe?

        20

      • #
        Chad

        Gee Aye
        May 5, 2021 at 12:15 pm ·
        Battery swap seems to be a way to go for all EVs. It would require agreed international standards etc. Any thoughts anyone?

        There is a lot of “standardisation” in truck designs with manufacturers using interchangeable Engines, Transmissions, Axles , etc….
        And this is a company CONVERTING various trucks to EVs…so modifying a truck and making a battery + EV drive that can be used on most trucks is possible.
        With EV Cars, the electricals are proprietry to each manufacturer, and “Designed in” to each vehicle, to suit which ever the target market is.
        In practice, this means that no 2 EVs are the same in battery specification, voltage, capacity, size, dimentions, sub systems, etc etc etc, are all different. Even models from one manufacturer may have different batteriy designs. ( EG Tesla !)
        So car EV battery replacement, becomes more like finding a pair of school shoes for your child, ..
        …..IE endless options of size, shape, lace or velcro, etc etc..
        But complicated further when you are dealing with a high value ($20k + ) item that you have bought new, and are now swapping for one with unknown history or condition ?

        30

      • #
        Global Cooling

        Batteries should be easily replaceable, not integrated to a car because technology and their price will change during the next decades. Buying and renting batteries from third party should be the norm.

        EV price is lower if you sell it with 20 kWh battery and places for four 20 kWh extra batteries. When you start a long trip you rent the add-on batteries maybe from service stations around your trip.

        10

        • #
          Hanrahan

          When you start a long trip you rent the add-on batteries maybe from service stations around your trip.a nice BMW 3 Series ICE.

          It will go all day on a tank of fuel.

          You guys are trying to fix a major problem with a band aid.

          40

      • #
        yarpos

        Agreed but the industry seems to still be in the proprietary thinking stage. It will probably come from the Europeans as usual.

        20

    • #
      RicDre

      The article says they can swap the batteries out in 3 minute which sounds rather impressive. I didn’t see any mention of how heavy the batteries are, how much space they take up or what kind of load the truck can carry but it does say the truck can go 500 to 600 kms on a single charge but it doesn’t say what kind of load it would be carrying that distance.

      10

      • #
        Chad

        Ric…watch the vide…it shows the swap process and seems do’able.
        They state the battery pack could be up to 600kWh , which is 6 times bigger tha Teslas biggest 100kWh pack which weighs 600kg… so it is reasonable to assume a 600kWh pack might weigh 3500+ kg ..depending on construction and components included
        Note : current Li cell technology has a raw “energy density” of approx 4.0 kg /kWh.
        So 600kWh of cells alone ( no wiring, no containment, etc) ..would weigh a minimum of 2400 kg.

        10

    • #
      Hanrahan

      Battery swap for trucks and busses plying regular routs will, most likely work and work well. Point is, company trained professionals will be doing the job, and fleets will be standardised. Conventional diesels will do the routs off H1.

      Passenger vehicles? Not so much.

      What I don’t understand is why heavies have not gone with hybrid. Electric motors outboard the diffs would reduce the weight and complicity of the transmission and the number of gear shifts IMHO.

      10

  • #

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ilsharko

    For those who noticed ildonaldotrumpo got canceled by Twitter

    Someone who looks a lot like him is @ilsharko

    Something Elon Musk posted when the Dragon was coming back to Earth the other night
    about shark tank (possibly?)

    How about that AZ audit?

    10

  • #
    Hanrahan

    Bill and Melinda have split – irreconcilable differences.

    Of course he expects us to respect his privacy. Good one Bill, whose privacy, or life even, do you respect?

    80

  • #

    Hey all

    Lots of serious thinking on serious subjects …
    New to me, I’ve been wondering about vibrations, why certain music and colors seem to be uplifting. I was totally ignorant re Hertz

    A happy discovery, 432 Hz music. Using the search terms:
    Most popular 432 Hz songs
    Found ytube Best 432 Music Hits Playlist

    It’s just lovely.

    20

  • #
  • #
    Hanrahan

    Murphy tells us no inspection ready unit passed combat.

    With this in mind is the Chinese Army as fearful as it seems? They drill beautifully and their women soldiers are as pretty as a chorus line but they will prolly never be tested because no one is crazy enough to to put boots on the ground and invade. The US Marines are ditching their tanks [search on it] so there will never be another D Day.

    Yes, it is bluster and bravado but the Indian Army [or more correctly, their press] say they go crying when things get tough. Without a guaranteed 100:1 kill ratio the Yanks would never engage China but is this true of India, Malaysia, Taiwan, Phillipines etc?

    We live in dangerous times and any modern Chamberlin should be unceremoniously stripped of any authority and sent on gardening leave.

    10

  • #
    MrGrimNasty

    As predicted, the awful performance of the UK windmills over the last month is ignored, but the day it surged is reported as a record success!

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2021/05/05/wind-power-collapsed-during-april/

    There’s a good data visual link been posted in the comments, which highlights how useless solar PV is in Winter in the UK, and how badly wind performed in the last month.

    https://www.mygridgb.co.uk/last-12-months/

    10

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