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Tuesday Open Thread

9.2 out of 10 based on 13 ratings

177 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #
    Mal

    There appears to be a strong correlation between sunspot cycles and climate
    We are now entering the second of what appears to be another low in the sunspot cycle
    Have we entered a maunder minimum or even a little ice age for next 30 years?
    If so, the human race is very poorly prepared for it.

    Not only is cold a killer but agriculture would suffer significantly

    310

    • #
      el gordo

      Solar cycles have been weakening since the 1980s and last year was mostly without sunspots. ‘For a long period, the Sun was spot-free for 90% of the time, making the period of minimum activity at the end of Solar Cycle 24* and the beginning of Cycle 25 one of the deepest solar minima ever observed.’ Heartland

      We should expect to see some impact here on the ground. Shorter growing seasons would be a clear indication that its outside the AGW script.

      270

      • #
        theRealUniverse (in NZ)

        Bored and back..Just enjoying freezing cold southerlies as expected here in north NZ! Welcome to the GSM
        SunspotS 2020 total: 122 days (76%) (spaceweather.com).
        I love this…for ALL the Sun deniers in the climate alarmist camp, and a few other ‘theories’ about how HAARP controls the weather..NOT.
        “B-class solar flares are considered to be relatively minor. But consider this: A typical B-class solar flare releases as much energy as 100 million WWII atomic bombs. Only on the sun, which is itself a 10^27 (10 with 27 zeros) ton self-contained nuclear explosion, would such a blast be considered “minor.””

        100

        • #
          el gordo

          The other side will say “so what”, the sun is a long way away.

          We need to find concrete proof that solar forcing is even real.

          70

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Surely as day follows night, and summer follows winter, that shouldn’t be hard to sort out.

            KK

            90

            • #
              el gordo

              Tambora erupted in 1815 and 1816 was the year without a summer, so we need to go back over the 30 years before that time to find a solar effect. What was the climate like in Sydney and London?

              50

              • #
                Mal

                13000 years ago the site where New York now stands was under 1 km of ice
                I can predict it was bl___dy cold with a good degree of certainty.

                40

              • #
                el gordo

                The LGM was closer to 18,000 years ago and in Australia we know that Bondi Beach was 20 kilometres further east.

                Focussing on the Dalton, the Thames froze over in 1788 and they held a Frost Fair. The Arctic spell which began on November 30, 1788, lasted until January 13, 1789. Some kind of polar vortex?

                30

            • #
              Greg in NZ

              tRU (in NZ), welcome back – oh right, you haven’t left!

              Some media have been warning of a big chill about to strike the South Island later this week, caused by (what else) Gobbles Wormink – no wait – Klimate Klink. With a YUGE high pressure about to park over us, bye-bye clouds and hello clear skies: funny how clouds keep the warmth in yet evil carbon dioxide fails miserably.

              https://www.electroverse.net/historic-cold-about-to-sweep-new-zealand/

              70

      • #
        Dave in the States

        Shorter growing seasons would be a clear indication that its outside the AGW script.

        Indeed. The growing season is certainly a better metric than a fiddled with temperature record. Here in N. America we have not seen a longer growing season develop during the Adjustocene. Actually, the last few years have seen delayed starts to planting and earlier than usual Autumn. Last night it was 23 degrees F (-5 degrees C) here only a couple weeks from the summer solstice.

        70

    • #
      stevem

      I read something over the weekend about a recent burst of activity that may indicate we’re coming out of the current minimum rather than it weakening further.

      30

    • #
      JanEarth

      Mal

      Cycle 24 was the weakest for many decades and most experts predict that cycle 25, which has just started, will be as weak as the previous one. Whether we are heading into a minimum or not is debatable but we will find out in the next 50 years or so. Don’t forget that we are coming off a period of extreme solar activity,the highest it has been for hundreds of years. A cycle last for 22 years and is measured from the time the magnetic poles end up at the same pole and that consists of two 11 year cycles when the poles reverse.

      Climate lags the solar cycle so that the peak of this current crop in the 1950s and early 60s only started to show up in the climate data at the end of last century…hence all the climate panic.

      Of greater concern is the weakening of the Earths magnetic fields. The Sun throws massive CMEs off especially during these waning solar cycles and coupled with a weakening field this could result in our civilizations end. Our dependence on electricity has made us extremly vulnerable to a disaster we may never recover from. The induced electricity in our grid can easily blow every generator on the planet to smithereens.

      To top it all off the magnetic poles are behaving very odd at the moment.they have moved hundreds of kilometers and the North pole is heading for Siberia while the South pole is heading into the Indian ocean. The north pole was moving at a rate of about 35 kilometers a year but of late it appears to be slowing somewhat. This happened so fast the the earths magentic model had to be updated early a few years ago as GPS and satelites were becoming too inaccurate for comfort. At this time it is not knowm if this signals a magnetic pole shift or just an incursion. Since we are overdue a reversal by a long time it is not fantastic to assume a reversal is happening.

      I can provide links but I need to use a PC because its just too hard on my fondle slab. If anyone kicks up and demands links I will endeavour to do so…if time permits.

      The Sun is responsible for our weather. 100%. If the Sun stopped shining the atmosphere would freeze and settle onto the surface and weather would stop. It’s the Sun that causes weather always was and always will.

      170

      • #
        Mal

        During solar minimums, the sun’s magnetic field weakens allowing additional interstellar cosmic gamma rays to enter earths atmosphere.
        These form a nucleus for water vapour to form water droplets and the forming of additional clouds
        This increases the earths albedo
        Everyone can feel what happens when a cloud covers the sun
        Yet clouds aren’t included in ipcc models.

        110

      • #
        sophocles

        JanEarth said at 1.3:

        To top it all off the magnetic poles are behaving very odd at the moment.

        The magnetic field activity has seen the South Atlantic anomaly develop a bit of extra strength/focus at it’s eastern end (by the west coast of Africa) almost as though it’s going to make another pole. Up to the present, it looked very much as though it was a three-pole magnetic excursion.

        A four-pole one has a bit more potential to become a full-blown reversal rather than just a weather-mangling, freeze-yer-rear-end off excursion. It’s certainly interesting.

        20

    • #
      tom0mason

      Here is some evidence about solar cycles affecting Earth’s climate.
      However in my opinion, it relies on too many ‘modeled’ references to make it completely convincing.

      https://academic.oup.com/astrogeo/article/43/5/5.9/208306

      20

  • #
    el gordo

    Put this up earlier, the recognition by scientists that the Hiatus is real.

    https://www.thegwpf.com/climate-scientists-praise-global-warming-hiatus-science-boost/

    50

  • #

    The phylogenetic assessment of SARS-CoV-2 continues with the following article

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

    Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus

    Rambaut’s tweeted summary is succinct and true to the paper but possibly not more accessible – check his profile for other tweeted discussions on the paper

    https://twitter.com/arambaut/status/1268693849666445312

    The summary is that this is the latest and most sophisticated analysis of the possible origins of the virus and concludes that, as with previous analyses where less information was available, the virus’s genomic composition is completely consistent with it being derived through evolutionary processes and that human manipulation is highly unlikely.

    23

  • #
    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Factual Correction : Looks like the big high over Australia has locked down all the wind turbines in Australia.

      46

    • #
      TedM

      At the present time wind is producing 0.456% of total power generation in SA.

      60

  • #

    For the last week or so, all ten Units at Victoria’s three coal fired power plants have been in operation.

    They are:

    Loy Yang A – Four Units – 35 Years old
    Loy Yang B – Two Units -27 Years old
    Yallourn W – Four Units – 46 years old

    All these Units have a combined TOTAL nameplate of 4690MW

    They have been delivering, almost a straight line average during that time i this last week of ….. 4710MW

    So, they have been delivering MORE than their Nameplate.

    Now, why I even bother saying this is that we have 64 wind plants with a total Nameplate of 7728MW.

    NEVER in the history of wind generation in Australia has wind generation even got remotely close to delivering its full Nameplate power, not even for a minute ….. NEVER.

    A couple of times, I have seen it reach the high 60% mark, but again, that’s only momentary.

    I’ve been going over all the old wind graphs I have for something I am working on, and the best I can find is around 4500MW as the highest wind has ever been, not a constant 4500MW mind you, just that it reached that for one five minute period, and in that time, wind Nameplate has increased from around 5000MW to its current 7728MW.

    Can’t even get remotely close, and the much vilified coal fired power hums along, still able to reach it maximum after many Decades.

    Wind generation. Pitiful is about the best you can describe it.

    I suppose I could say something good about ….. if it actually worked that is.

    When the year round average is less than 30% of its Capacity, there just is nothing good you can say about it.

    Tony.

    [No Idea why this was caught Tony.] ED

    330

    • #
      Mal

      Politicians,greenies and msm don’t understand the difference5 between nameplate and what is delivered
      Its just how their brains are wired

      110

      • #
        bobl

        It’s their MO, Nameplate is a promise, Output is the much less that actually gets delivered… Now do you see why politicians can’t see the difference?

        10

    • #
      Mal

      Just checked aemo at 4pm
      Coal delivring 5220 mwh 96%
      Wind 240 mw 4%
      Nil for all other sources
      Wind 240 mw, a fraction of its nameplate.

      I predicted this 2 days ago just by looking at the bom synoptic chart and seeing where the centre of the big high would be
      Simples

      181

    • #
      Robber

      At 6pm last Sunday, Qld generation consisted of 5.7 GW coal, 1.5 GW natural gas, 0.5 GW coal seam gas, 0.1 waste coal mine gas, 0.1 GW hydro, 0.1 GW wind, 0.0 GW solar. Qld, the renewable State?? Except for 97.5% fossil fuel.
      And for NSW at 6pm, coal 7.2, gas 0.6, hydro 0.8, wind 0.1, solar 0.0. And at 4am, coal 5.2, wind 0.3.
      Vic at 6pm coal 4.7, gas 0.8, hydro 1.3, wind 0.2. And at 4am coal 4.7, wind 0.1.
      Ah yes, our future is in “free” solar and wind power.
      Except that at 6pm they delivered a minuscule 1.7% of our electricity demand in the three big states. Solar delivered 0.0% of nameplate capacity, and wind 5.2%.

      100

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Tony perhaps it is time to junk the term
      ‘Name plate’
      And replace it with “NIL PLATE”
      After all this seems to be what they do most of the time.
      The percentage no doubt you can tell us.

      56

      • #
        bobl

        There is actually some logic in this. When you consider reliable minimum supply – IE this is the level of supply that can be guaranteed to be made available 24x7x365. Wind power is effectively zero because statistically there is no reasonable amount of storage that can guarantee you can always supply the market from wind because wind assets can be stalled for days/weeks, even months.

        Indeed engineers use 1% for wind as its effective reliable output, IE if you added a GW of wind you could remove just 10MW of coal. At least with solar the sun comes up EVERY day, can’t say that for wind.

        60

        • #
          RickWill

          Sun might come up every day but it can be blocked by cloud all day. I have recorded as little as 20 minutes full sunshine equivalent in Melbourne. In the last 30 days there has been two days with insolation below 1kWh/sq.m.

          If you design for minimum insolation of 1kWh/sq.m in Melbourne then you require more than 48 hours of storage to cater for the dips. In fact I have looked across the east coast of Australia and the same design criteria is needed to meet any specific demand; daily insolation 1kWh/sqm and 48 hours of storage.

          The worst situation in Queensland is the occurrence of a cyclone that becomes a tropical depression. In that circumstances the sun can be effectively blocked for 3 or 4 consecutive days.

          80

        • #
          James in Melbourne

          Bobl, would love to know the source for engineers using 1% for wind as its effective reliable output.
          Thanks.

          00

          • #
            AndyG55

            The value does make sense.

            I did a reliability check of German wind, asking what percentage of nameplate can wind be relied upon to delivery 90% of the time.

            You can see from the graph, that the result is about 4-5% of nameplate.

            50% of the time, it was below about 15% of nameplate. (averaged over 2 years)

            30

            • #
              bobl

              The problem here is the gazetted reliability for the network is 20 outage hours in a year, that’s 99.7% so 90% is nowhere near good enough.

              10

            • #
              bobl

              Oh and we engineers are a rather conservative lot, wind is statistical so if the minimum reliable output is 4% we’re going to want a safety margin on that.

              PS 4% does seems a little high for wind but I guess that’s Germany which might be a bit windier than Oz.

              20

          • #
            bobl

            Do I need to disclose all my secrets? I’m an EE and it came from a design engineer I know, he also said (paraphrasing) “Windmills on the South Coast of WA? then the public wouldn’t see them – gotta build them where people can see…”

            From memory there was also a document from TasNetworks I think that gave this 1% rule.

            30

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        My suggestion that we only use the “Nil Plate” has a purpose.
        To show to the poorly understanding the erratic and unreliable nature of wind power.
        If we want to keep our society powered up as normal,
        Wind is useless.
        NIL

        11

        • #
          Bill In Oz

          This was graphically demonstrated to me some years ago.
          I was visiting a brother at Port Fairy for a few days.
          While there the power went off due to a transformer braking down somewhere to the east of Port Fairy.
          But then the lights came back on with a dull glow.
          I asked my brother what was happening ?
          He told me thjat the wind towers at Codrington to the West
          were pumping out a bit of power
          But not enough to actually do anything like run a fridge or a computer.
          Useless !

          21

    • #
      TedM

      At the moment SA is running on gas and coal fired power. Gas loca,l and coal fired power imported from Victoria. Around 750mw of imported power.

      SA wind power project a total fail.

      60

  • #

    Tony in Moderation at 1.22PM. No idea why!

    Bland electrical power data.

    Tony

    110

  • #
    Dennis

    I read in The Australian today about a new wind and solar energy business venture announcement, to supply “up to 7,700m MW” capacity.

    Up to must mean installed/nameplate theoretical capacity?

    When the wind blows and when the sun shines.

    Why not be honest and state capacity factor of about 30 per cent?

    70

    • #
      Dennis

      Also, it is never mentioned that during the accounted working life of a power station, 50 years usually, there remains at least another 30 years if well maintained.

      Or that wind turbines and solar systems actual working life before essential replacement in maybe 20 years, so the real cost of renewable energy “farms” is 2.5 times the cost to achieve a power station working life.

      180

      • #
        StephenP

        In the UK the BBC is crowing about the demise of fossil fuel:

        http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52973089

        But at the same time wind has been spectacularly variable, going up and down like a bride’s nightie.
        At present wind is providing 0.50 GW, which is 2% of a much reduced demand of 25GW.
        Heaven help us if the demand returns to a more normal demand of 40 GW, and don’t forget all those EVs we will have, and that all our heating and cooking is planned to be by electricity.
        All by 2035 according to the Committee on Climate Change.
        It looks like we have replaced a reliable vehicle that only runs part of the time.

        30

    • #
      Chad

      Is this 7,700MW in addition to those already aproved ?
      If it is a single project (Location ?) then it is bigger than any ever attempted before..and i do not believe the ability to construct such a facility exists !
      Apparently, There are currently 11,200 MW of Wind and Solar projects currently being progressed in Au

      There are currently 95 projects that are in construction (or due to start construction soon) in Australia. This is based on projects that have reached financial close and are not yet commissioned.

      These projects will deliver over $19.5 billion in capital costs, 11,231 MW of new renewable energy capacity and create 13,849 direct jobs.

      https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/resources/project-tracker

      30

      • #

        You’ve gotta just love that they can so blandly detail what they are doing and get away with it every time, every time full in the knowledge that both journalists and Joe Public both are totally and utterly clueless.

        There’s 5970MW of wind construction, and 6072MW of Solar construction.

        When Capacity Factors for both are taken into account, that’s an equivalent Nameplate of 2853MW

        For only:

        $19.5 BILLION

        Snap! What a bargain.

        Please don’t tell me renewables are cheaper in any manner at all.

        Tony.

        310

        • #
          PeterS

          Does that include the cost of storage backups? If not then the cost of renewables are even more expensive when compared to coal. They have to include storage backups, such as grid batteries. To replace coal they would have to be massive in size (solar and batteries) which no doubt would cost way too much even for the ALP to support seriously. I suppose they hope the cost will come down in time to make them viable but when? In a couple of decades or so? By then our coal fired power stations would be closed down unless a massive amount of investment is injected to upgrade them, or new ones built. Let’s face it – it’s inevitable we will have to refurbish our existing coal fired pwoer stations and/or build new coal fired power stations if we are to have any hope of saving our economy. The sooner PM Morrison admits that the better.

          100

          • #
            Chad

            #
            PeterS
            June 9, 2020 at 5:50 pm ·
            They have to include storage backups, such as grid batteries. To replace coal they would have to be massive in size (solar and batteries) which no doubt would cost way too much even for the ALP to support seriously. I suppose they hope the cost will come down in time to make them viable but when? In

            Peter,..and others interested..
            2 years ago, you could buy ( retail) high quality brand lithium cells for $92/kWh.
            That would suggest that the wholesale and manufacturing costs were likely nearer to US$50/kWh …so say Au$100 /kWh
            Aeon, are currently expanding the Hornsdale Power Reserve battery by 64.5 MWh at a cost of $71 m ….implying an effective cost of $1100 /kWh ..($1.1m /MWh) installed.
            It is obvious that much of the cost is in the electrical systems (inverters , BMS, etc) installation, and services.
            So, the point is, even if “battery” (cell) costs reduce to a fraction of their current costs, it will have little impact on the actual installed cost of grid battery facilities and any expectation of dramatic reduction in grid battery costs is just wishful thinking

            60

            • #
              PeterS

              Thanks for the data.

              10

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              Chad:
              Are you sure about your figures?
              You imply a figure for a Tesla (or other) battery of around $1200, whereas it was around $12-13,000.
              Also a cost of $1100/kWh implies that a household battery (14kWh) would still be the same installed now as it was then.

              00

              • #
                Chad

                G3..
                The $92 /kWk was for bulk (100+) qty of LG pouch cells from a reputable battery retail specialist in europe ..2018 price.
                The Hornsdale battery expansion cost of $71m has been widely reported in various press articles…and they are Tesla Powerpack units.
                Tesla always claim to have one of the lowest cell prices in the world,..as used in their Power Wall and Power Pack storage products..and Cars..
                Tesla also frequently mentioned the <$100/kWh cell cost.. which would put the cost (of CELLS) in a 13kWh Powerwall at $1300.. vs the $10,000+ That you pay for the completed installed unit
                All i am saying is that there is a lot more “COST” in a installed , operational, battery system, …than just the headline CELL cost.. which is the only component that is significantly reducing in cost..

                20

              • #
                Chad

                G3,..
                I intended to add there are always Manufacturing, Wholesale, and retail Margins ,..added before there packs leave the installers wharehouse.
                And a little more evidence from the NY Times..in 2019…

                Executives at Volkswagen, which last year edged out Toyota as the world’s largest carmaker, have hinted that economies of scale have allowed them to push the cost of batteries in the ID.3 below $100 per kilowatt hour. ..

                https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/08/business/volkswagen-trademark-electric-vehicles.html?searchResultPosition=1

                10

              • #
                Chad

                G3..reply in moderation..but Yes !

                00

        • #
          Chad

          I thought their choice of wording was interesting also…

          These projects will deliver over $19.5 billion in capital costs,

          But i guess it doesnt sound as bad as simply saying “ will cost”. Over $19.5 bn !

          100

        • #
          Timster

          It’s apparently nuclear’s fault that wind farms don’t make enough power.

          https://reneweconomy.com.au/inflexible-nuclear-blamed-for-big-cuts-in-wind-power-in-uk-17303/

          Sad thing is that there any many that will believe the spin and clearly who ever wrote the article doesn’t grasp the realities and requirements of baseload generation and it’s good to have these big spinning generators

          60

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            Reneweconomy is a propaganda rag.
            It’s purpose is to deceive and mislead.
            It has no other purpose.

            31

            • #
              Timster

              Agree Bill … but still they get airtime and many will be nodding their heads in agreement with their “logic”

              10

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            It is more likely that there isn’t much wind blowing. Just a ‘blocking high’. Nevermind, just blame global warming.

            20

    • #
      bobl

      Why not get real and state maximum guaranteed output = ZERO. Electricity is not an average thing, it’s an instantaneous thing.

      61

  • #
    Langworthy Grant

    Given the left wing support for mass gatherings in still active hubs for Corona Virus in Sydney and Melbourne in order to support the idea that Black Lives Matter more than those of the elderly and generally infirm of all races, threatened by the BLM wave of Covid 19, I assumed that Australia must have a huge problem with Indigenous deaths in Custody, a problem that was worth letting a few innocent but probably elderly people die to publicise. Then I remembered that the support is from the LEFT who we all know have a wonderful regard for Science and Statistics and the well being of society in general.

    I then looked at the first level numbers, a 5 minute google search of generally available ABS and other Government agency statistics, tells me that in Australia 28% of our total incarcerated population identify as indigenous, which is terrible given that they represent around 3% of the total population, yet only 19% of Deaths in custody fall into the same category. So while Australia unquestionably has a problem with the numbers of indigenous people in custody, once there they are actually less likely to die than non indigenous inmates. At this high level there doesn’t seem to be a massive race based problem, obviously drilling down to compare different causes of death etc. might give a different view but that’s not what the freedom fighters of the left do, because anything you found in that detail would be small, given that 70-80% of all Deaths in Custody are due to natural causes, inmate on inmate violence, drugs etc. and not actions by Police or Guards.

    So how does the Left create hype around Deaths in Custody? They Take the deaths in custody and divide those numbers by the base population number, thereby creating a meaningless statistic that hides the true problem and good work done to protect Indigenous Lives in Custody and simultaneously creates a targetable perpetrator in our police and prison system. The alternative would be for these social commentators to address the issues that lead to the high incarceration rate in the first place, which are complex, diverse and difficult to find simple answers to and don’t lead to a single group to hang out as being “responsible” / guilty!

    I for one see plenty of parallels in this misuse of data and statistics to a lot of the climate related nonsense out there, when will our MSM open up these statistical furphies and ask the sensible questions?

    110

    • #
      Ken Davis

      As a sensible slightly leftist (or a centrist due to political plate tectonics) – this is too good for just a thumbs up. I’d been looking over the statistics about BLM and came to the same conclusion. The real problem as you say is WHY melanin is correlated with incarceration. The left (mostly) ignores this and the right (mostly) erects a “somebody else’s problem field” around it. And it is devilish to try and fix. The Indigenous leadership can’t even come close to any agreement on how to tackle it.

      40

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Ken re “The real problem as you say is why melanin is correlated with incarceration”
        I agree with your intention here. But it’s worth remembering that there are a lot of other nationalities in Australia with a bit of melanin in their skins : Filipinos, Indonesian, Thais, Vietnamese, Indians, South Africans etc etc…Meanwhile some of the indigenous I see in the media indentifying as indigenous have no melanin in their skin at all. ‘Melanin’ is not the key factor.
        I suggest ‘culture’ is the problem. A different ‘culture’ which has developed in the last 40-50 years among some indigenous Australians and their communities. A culture where violence & domestic violence especially, plus drugs, unemployment, poverty and living outside the law, are normal. Incarceration follows on naturally.

        41

    • #
      yarpos

      Follow the money. There is a healthy cashflow to be derived from maintaining a state of permanent victimhood, and never for one instant looking at the consequences of your own actions.

      20

      • #
        Annie

        Where would the welfare system be without victims? They would lose their cushy funding if they listened to sensible brave people like Jacinta Price who really cares about people in her community.

        20

  • #
    Tim

    Asymptotic carriers do not spread the virus says the WHO

    “From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency’s Geneva headquarters. “It’s very rare.”

    “To be sure, asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread of the virus appears to still be happening, Van Kerkhove said but remains rare”

    31

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      WHO have been dead wrong for the past 6 months on this virus.
      That’s what happens when you suck up to the CCP In Beijing.

      73

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I have heard virologists suggest “asymnptomatic carriers” is a contradiction in terms…youve either got it or you havent….

      41

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        Note my green thumb Steve.
        Cheers
        Bill

        17

      • #
        PeterW

        Sorry, Steve, but that would be wrong.
        Symptoms are not whether you have the virus, but whether the virus has you.

        Ok,,, if I stop being a smart-alec, symptoms are how you react. I the virus is present, but does not cause your system to react in a measurable way, then you are “asymptomatic”.

        There is some interesting information coming out, suggesting that the affect of the virus may be even more varied than previously thought. There have been people known to have the COVID19 virus, but who test negative for the standard antibodies. Possibly because the standard test looks for one particular set of antibodies, when there is more than one, or – and this is supposedly a very recent line of research – that the body has more means of combating viral attacks than just antibodies.

        It will be interesting to see what develops.

        31

        • #

          bats, for instance, are asymptomatic to many viruses all at once.

          00

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            But these rodent like ancestors went through s huge bout of evolution to get to this point.
            G A, are you suggesting we do the same evolutionary process ?
            Lots of dying in the survival of the fittest GA.

            01

            • #

              why do you feel the need to infer from a comment what is clearly not there.

              PeterW was pointing out the deficiency of Steve’s made up virologists claim and I was agreeing with him and providing a clear example.

              I admire your attempt to bring evolution into this even if it was totally disingenuous and poor spirited.

              31

            • #
              PeterW

              Bill…. much as it pains me to agree with the leaf, there are enormous numbers of virus’ in the environment which do not affect humans to any known or measurable degree.

              40

  • #

    So who still thinks space is a coolant?

    The simplest evidence against it is the vacuum-based thermos.

    Think of two concentric cylinders.

    If the radius of the external one is 10% greater than the internal, then by inverse square law, the radiative heat transfer is diluted by 21%.

    That’s a good thermos.

    But if you believe in heating-space theory then this makes no difference. The inner cylinder “must” cool to the gap.

    Thermos is no good.

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      Yonniestone

      Michael Mann once saw Lewandowsky pour hot coffee from a thermos, fascinated he asked what it was Lew replied it keeps hot things hot and cold things cold, the next day Mann proudly showed Lew his new thermos, Lew asked what he had in it to which Mann replied hot coffee and two icy poles…….

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    David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

    Afternoon all,
    This paper describes how to use vitamin C as a cure for the Wuhan flu, and where it’s been used successfully. Includes dosages (massive), and recommends early use, intravenously.
    The title: ” Vitamin C and Coronavirus: Not a Vaccine; Just a Humble Cure “, dated May 2020.

    http://orthomolecular.activehosted.com/index.php?action=social&chash=1d7f7abc18fcb43975065399b0d1e48e.158&s=82d1bc640a7a13c73ce1608af826df6a

    Cheers
    Dave B

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    el gordo

    Warwick Hughes puts the boot into BoM forecasting.

    http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=6495

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    Peter Fitzroy

    ACT now is supplied by renewables only, and will drop its prices by nearly 3%

    King Coal no more

    317

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      Rowjay

      Hello Peter

      The ACT’s renewables claim is based on NAMEPLATE capacity, like all other renewables claims. Did you realise that on the 6th June, there was a 6 hour period where ACT’s 100% renewable contractors were actually drawing power from the grid to keep their windmills turning hoping for the wind to start again – rather than 100% renewable it was 102% fossil fuelled! You sound like a reasonably intelligent person, and it is easy enough to check the claims from TonyfromOz, just as I have done for the ACT. We are being totally misled by the ACT Govt and the Clean Energy Council. Now if all the new renewable projects were forced to install battery backup to cover their generation claims at their own cost, then it would be a level playing field. Until then, the whole of the east coast generation system is being held together by ageing coal-fired plants, gas peaking plants and anything else that can generate a kilowatt to prop up the system waiting for the dawn and the wind to blow again.

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      All you can do is laugh really at the sheer and utter cluelessness of this statement:

      ACT now is supplied by renewables only…..

      The ACT is connected to the NSW grid, and NSW is supplied by 85% coal fired power.

      Saying and being are two different things.

      Tony.

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      AndyG55

      LOL… you are JOKING aren’t you.. or gullible to your only brain neuron !

      Where was all their electricity coming from 2 nights ago when there was ZERO% wind in all three Eastern states and basically none coming from SA either.

      Last 24 hours in NSW COAL 94% wind and solar combined only 4%

      They are still connected to the NSW grid, they use NSW power.

      That means 94% of their electricity came from COAL. !

      How many wind turbines in the ACT, Peter? 😉

      Stop making a fool of yourself.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      SA wind does it again.. currently only 1% of electricity produced

      99% GAS.

      That’s a big improvement over the other evening, I guess. 😉

      I bet they are really glad for those CARBON BASED FUELS. !

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        Bill In Oz

        I certainly am. It’s bloody freezzzing here in SA
        And if we are lucky this will keep going for ages
        And out power bills will fall as well.

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      James in Melbourne

      OMG. If only there were a ‘delete last comment’ button, hey, Peter?
      That self-beclowning was like hitting “reply all” on a snide remark about your boss to the whole staff.

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        AndyG55

        I wonder how the South Australians like the idea of Canberra using all their wind energy. 😉

        Can’t be used in Adelaide if the political toffs take it all.

        I wonder, is it double or triple counted !

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      • #
        AndyG55

        LOL, you really are that GULLIBLE.

        Last 24 hours in NSW COAL 94% wind and solar combined only 4%

        They are still connected to the NSW grid, they use NSW power.

        That means 94% of their electricity came from COAL. !

        You cannot separate different supplies once its on the grid.

        What is so difficult for you to understand !

        Must have been DARK in Canberra last evening, hey, when all three eastern states and SA were producing no wind electricity.

        Stop doubling down on your stupidity.

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        Murph

        The article says “Climate Council senior researcher Tim Baxter said ACT homes still consumed energy produced by coal and gas plants.”

        Please read articles before you post a link to them.

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        AndyG55

        Call us when the disconnect from the NSW grid, which is generally around 85-95% COAL and GAS!

        Then that “100% renewables” malarkey it won’t be such a FARCE.!

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        AndyG55

        You have to remember that the ABC is ultra-left-wing.

        Nearly as far left as the ACT government.

        FACTS and REALITY don’t matter to them at all.

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        yarpos

        The lights would be out right now if that were true

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        Serp

        So this is how you get your jollies, pop over to Jo Nova’s and bait the bear; maybe Jo should invest in a shadow banning package to rid us of your insufferable spite.

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    • #

      Peter F, you know not history …
      Ol’ King Cole saving serfs from slavery,
      King Cole rescuing the western world
      from centuries’n centuries of famine.

      Let’s hear it fer Ol’ King Cole!!

      80

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      TedM

      Yes hydro PF.

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      bobl

      So when the windmills are becalmed at night by a continental high when there is no solar the ACT draws no electricity at all, eh Peter? 100% renewables my a**e.

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      GD

      The ACT has never let go of the extension cord to NSW and it’s because, without coal-fired power from NSW, the ACT would be blacked-out most of the time.

      PF, re your link to that ABC article:

      The ACT is engaged in dodgy electricity accounting that is meaningless in the real world.

      [No idea why ,apologies GD.]AD

      40

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      yarpos

      ACT sits in the middle of dominantly coal fired grid (including coal fired support from QLD on a regular basis) ACT has paper shuffling agreements to satisfy virtue signallers, thats about all.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      They still have 5 month before the US election..

      At least two more “crises” will be needed. !

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    Tony is in moderation with the comment at 7.53PM

    Tony.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Covid is all a dastardly conspiracy !
      Hi hum, Ho Hum.
      Boring.

      More an more evidence is gradually emerging about this new disease and it’s origins in the CCP virology lab in Wuhan.
      And one thing is very very clear.The only conspiracy was by the Chinese Communist Party to first hide and then mislead everyone outside of the CCP inner circles .

      And now that this Corona virus is out in the world, our western civilisation has changed for ever.
      The globally inter connected people travelling freely anywhere ‘model’ is dead.
      We may soon have a vaccine for this virus.
      But the CCP Wuhan virus has demonstrated that the old globally connected model left us completely open to such attacks whether deliberate or inadvertent.
      We will see some form of permanent quarantine on the borders of many developed countries.
      The old way doing things is broken.

      14

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    Bill In Oz

    When did the Corona 19 virus escape from the Wuhan Virology Laboratories ?
    New research is showing a spike in hospital admissions in Wuhan in August.
    And a massive increase in searches online using Baidu and Covid 19 symptoms.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52975934

    This ties in with the known fact that In September in Wuhan
    The International Military Games were conducted under a tight lockdown.

    CONCLUSION : The CCP knew about this disease a long time before it told the rest of the world.

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      Fred Streeter

      China, USA, Canada, UK, probably others, were investigating the SARS virus, ostensibly to determine possible structures that it might take in the future, with the objective of rapidly developing a vaccine should SARS mutate.

      (Or to develop a viral weapon, were one to be cynical.)

      The USA and Canada, probably others, had Chinese researchers on their teams. In July 2019, the Canadian researchers (one having knowledge of SARS) were ejected from the Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory (Bio-Safety Level 4 – highest level).

      Shouldn’t the West have known about the likely nature of the CCP virus also?

      21

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      dinn, rob

      Not yet clear if virus escaped from whichever lab. one confusion in public is whether virus is natural or synthetic, but WIV (like many P4 labs) was into both natural and synthetic virus studies. the wuhan world military games began latter october 2019.
      Somewhat related is this: https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/06/borrowing-boat-to-reach-sea.html

      10

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    King Geo

    Back to Global Cooling. This link suggests that Earth, right now, is cooling very rapidly, especially the S. Hemis (refer to the 1st figure).

    Maybe a just a short term GT drop – maybe not. This is the sort of thing one would expect given we have just passed the SC24 trough.

    30

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    I’m waiting to hear just how well their spying App worked during the massed defiance.

    “No, look, it seems a little inconclusive at this point in time. The raw data will have to put through a phantastran, and we need to tweak the transaxlabiofronic muliplexification Unit. We have an updated version of the App for release in the next few days, and with every uptake of this new App, you get free tickets to the John Farnham concert.”

    Tony.

    70

    • #
      Lance

      Must be related to the of the differential girdle spring of the turbo encabulator

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLDgQg6bq7o

      10

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      MP

      Bugger, I went to the last three of his farewell concerts. At least this time it will be free, once I down load the spywear.

      10

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      Graeme#4

      Not very well Tony, according to today’s article in The Oz. Seems the app has hardly been used by any state govt, and most COVID-19 patients weren’t using the app. If a whole bunch of infected folks walked past you, all coughing over you, the app would not have detected what I regard as a worst-case scenario. All the food outlets I’ve been to don’t ask you if you have the app, they insist on having our name and phone number.

      10

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    RicDre

    Green cities roadmap touts COVID-19 recovery stimulus

    Australian roadmap says greening cities can help kickstart economy

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/08/green-cities-roadmap-touts-covid-19-recovery-stimulus/

    20

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    RicDre

    #DefundTheBBC Campaign Gains 40,000 Supporters After Biased Coverage of BLM Protests

    Tens of thousands of people have joined a campaign the defund the UK’s public-funded broadcaster as the backlash grows against the media outlet’s supposedly ‘impartial’ reporting.

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2020/06/08/defund-bbc-campaign-gains-40000-supporters-past-week/

    30

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    RicDre

    Leaked Emails Call for Censorship of Michael Moore’s New Film

    Medium author Matt Orfalea has written a piece published June 1st that shows a revealing look into the Josh Fox’s campaign to get Planet of the Humans removed from YouTube.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/09/leaked-emails-call-for-censorship-of-michael-moores-new-film/

    50

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    Another Ian

    “Climate Extremism is Dividing Democrats”

    “Americans need true cooperation among their elected leaders during the coronavirus outbreak, but many left-leaning politicians are trying to use this crisis as an opportunity to pass radical climate plans.

    These proposals are not only unrelated to our current needs but also hurt the economy, especially crucial Democrat constituencies.”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/09/climate-extremism-is-dividing-democrats/

    00

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    Another Ian

    Today’s lesson in logic???

    “BBC : Burning Wood Doesn’t Generate CO2”

    https://realclimatescience.com/2020/06/bbc-burning-wood-doesnt-generate-co2/

    20

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    Another Ian

    More specifically, type O blood may be protective against the novel virus. In fact, early results indicate that people with type O blood are between 9 and 18 percent less likely to test positive for COVID-19 when compared to the other blood types.

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/blood-type-coronavirus-protection-study

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/w-o-o-d-28-may-2020/#comment-130456

    10

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    Another Ian

    “When The FBI Does It, That Means That It’s Not Illegal”

    “The word everyone is searching for is “organized crime”. The DNC is an organized crime family. Once you understand this, everything else falls into place.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/06/09/when-the-fbi-does-it-that-means-that-its-not-illegal-162/

    10

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    Another Ian

    “On April 26th, I directed you to a lengthy Medium article titled Lab-Made? SARS-CoV-2 Genealogy Through the Lens of Gain-of-Function Research and have been following the story through Deigin’s twitter account.

    If you didn’t read it the first time around, I recommend you set an hour aside because the case he made is gaining support with every passing week.”

    Link at

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/06/09/one-flu-out-of-the-wuhan-nest-8/

    10

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    Chad

    I see SA grid scraped through the (9/6/20) , evening (7pm) power demand peak of 2500MW using only Gas [email protected] 1750MW , and imported VIc coal power (750MW). …wind was tucked up and asleep !
    those interconnector lines must have been running hot !

    30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      And again this morning as we had our coldest start to the day for 76 years
      Minus 0.8 degrees at the BOM’s own West Terrace weather station
      Despite all the Urban Heat Island effect of the CBD 300 meters away.
      Despite also the West Terrace BOM station being next to a 3-4 meters slope
      Which the . cold air slides down onto a playing field.
      Frosts all across Adelaide and the Adelaide Hills.

      The Climate Change Cult folk are now praying to St Greta for more Gore Bull warming

      02

      • #
        Chad

        Woha ! .. even worse tonight in Sa for the evening peak.
        Looks like they had to fire up those emergency diesel generators for a couple of hours to see them through !
        Wind has turned in early again !
        Watch the fun on NEMLog.

        10

        • #
          Analitik

          And how many batteries (and supporting inverters) would have been needed to cover for this period if there was no thermal generation?

          20

        • #
          Robber

          Amazing! At 6pm Wed 10/6 in SA, wind delivered 2.7 MW from a nameplate of 2142 MW, the big battery 30 MW, and those diesel generators 142 MW, plus 135 MW of imports from Vic to keep the lights on at 2215 MW.
          But then by midnight, wind was delivering 185 MW, while SA was importing 743 MW from Vic to meet a demand of 2125 MW.
          While in Vic, wind at 6pm contributed 83 MW versus demand of 7150 MW with coal delivering 4761 MW.

          10

          • #
            Chad

            Robbber, can you clarify something ?
            Its obvious that SA/AEMO prefer to minimise the use of the Gas generators in SA and import from Vic whenever possible.
            Is this simply explained by the relative cost of Gas generation vs the Coal powered supply from victoria, or is there other technical reasons such a a NEED to keep the Vic coal plants running at high output ?
            Or are there other more dubious “Market” forces (financial) reasons behind this policy .?

            00

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    RicDre

    Sierra Club: “We’ll never stop climate change without ending white supremacy”

    In the wake of harsh accusations of greedy corporate collaboration in “Planet of the Humans“, the Sierra club appears to be attempting to reinvent itself as a racial justice movement.

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/06/09/sierra-club-well-never-stop-climate-change-without-ending-white-supremacy/

    20

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    Robber

    Did it suddenly get cold? AEMO prices in Vic averaged $38/MWhr through May, and daily prices from June 1 were 33, 38, 44, 50, 60, 51, 50, 61, and then yesterday $119/MWhr.
    All other states except Qld & Tas had prices jump to over $100.

    20

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    Rowjay

    ACT 100% Renewables Report Card – W/E 7/6/2020

    The following is a daily summary of the total performance of ACT’s contracted renewables suppliers. The table below reports total average capacity factors based on AEMO recorded outputs in Megawatts divided by the nameplate capacity for each contracted generator provided in the Aneroid website.

    The suppliers are:
    MLSP1 – Mugga Lane Solar – 13 MW Nameplate ACT contracted with 50,000 solar panels
    ROYALLA1 – Royalla Solar – 20 MW Nameplate ACT contracted with 83,000 solar panels
    ARWF1 – Ararat Wind – 80.5 MW Nameplate ACT contracted
    CROOKWF2 – Crookwell 2 Wind – 91 MW Nameplate ACT contracted
    HDWF1, 2 and 3 – Hornsdale Wind – 309 MW Nameplate ACT contracted
    SAPHWF1 – Sapphire Wind – 100 MW Nameplate ACT contracted

    Total Nameplate ACT contracted – 613.5 MW

    Therefore, total daily average ACT contracted renewable output for W/E 7/6/2020 is:

    1/06/2020 – 63% – 384 MW
    2/06/2020 – 29% – 178 MW
    3/06/2020 – 13% – 81 MW
    4/06/2020 – 26% – 162 MW
    5/06/2020 – 3% – 18 MW
    6/06/2020 – 1% – 5 MW
    7/06/2020 – 18% – 111 MW

    Unbelievable – an average output of 5 MW for 6/6/2020!

    It beggars belief that new renewable projects are allowed to proceed without the necessary battery backup at their cost, leaving the rest of the grid scrambling to cover the shortfall.

    30

    • #
      AndyG55

      Two problems

      1. If you are using wind and solar to charge batteries, you can’t be using that electricity for other purposes at the same time.

      2. A battery system large enough to cover ALL down-time of wind and solar would be horrendously big and prohibitively expensive, not to mention highly dangerous.

      30

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    Another Ian

    Obviously the Qld government got a message

    “This headline screen capture up on online Courier Mail atm behind the wall


    Shock decision on hazard reduction burns

    Council is furious after a shock decision by the State Government to pull out of providing support for its firies for hazard reduction burns.”

    20

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