JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Tuednesday Open Thread

OK. It’s late Tuesday somewhere in the world.

9.7 out of 10 based on 11 ratings

115 comments to Tuednesday Open Thread

  • #
    Sweet Old Bob

    Circus …. US Senate hearings on covid 19 …
    😉

    pollys never learn .

    41

    • #
      sophocles

      Sweet Old Bob claimed at #1:

      pollys never learn

      Oh yes they do: they never miss out on the crackers! (`food’).

      61

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    • #
      yarpos

      Nah, it will be fine. Its not like lithium battery packs have a history of bursting into flames or anything.

      130

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    • #
      Kalm Keith

      All that money.

      If all those U.K. Pounds £ had been spent in Victoria clearing green growth from access roads and properties a decade ago, then we would almost certainly have nearly two hundred Australians still with us.

      The obvious thing though for many is determined by what they see.

      In Australia that headline would tell some people that the link between climate change and “fires” is real.

      It must be: the government wouldn’t allocate nearly two million Australian dollars to a study of something that wasn’t real;

      would they?

      KK

      161

  • #
    Peter Scammell

    I may have missed it, I can’t read everything, but there seems to me to be some critical elements missing in the Covid19 testing statistics.
    We keep hearing about thousands of tests and ‘whatever’ percentage of infections are found. I’m not referring now to specific hot spots, but every day in Australia they are spouting on about these tests, without giving answers to the following (critical IMO) questions.
    1/ What percentage displayed immunity, by demographic?
    2/ What percentage were asymptomatic but infectious, by demographic?
    We need to establish a random testing regime’ that answers these questions. It is only then will we know the exact (or at least have a good approximation) nature of what we are dealing with.
    Economic recovery will require some risk. The level of risk is being kept from us.
    In the meantime we are being told, don’t go to work, don’t visit your mother, don’t go to school and on and on.
    I’m all for the common sense hygiene and social distancing regimes’ but frankly everything else e.g blocking State Borders or going for a Sunday drive or going to a football match appears to be based on some kind of voodoo ignorance, fear or grab for power.
    The authorities are fomenting social unrest and economic hardship, while just expecting everyone to take them on trust.
    I’m no mathematician but if they only sold every second seat in every second row at The MCG, with it’s 100,000 capacity, they would get 25,000 safely socially distancing, for example.
    Most of us have enough brains to avoid being in a high crime area late at night, so give us some credit on this as well.
    What exactly is the risk to 100 wedding guests, and people can decide if attending is worth the risk. At the moment we just don’t know and they don’t seem to want to tell us.
    I can’t help but conclude that the random testing regime’ with the answers to my two questions above is being avoided for Politically Correct reasons. We don’t want to be ageist, racist or gender driven.
    If it’s good enough for political pollsters, it should be good enough for governments to help us understand Covid19 so that we may behave accordingly.
    Posted on my blog http://www.dinosaurdiary.com.au

    201

    • #
      sophocles

      Peter Scammell @ #4 said:

      but there seems to me to be some critical elements missing in the Covid19 testing statistics.

      You’re right: one stat which would give a fairly good measure of who was likely to be in deep trouble would be the serum calcifediol (the active vitamin D) levels in each detected victim. Levels around 10ng/ml would be a positive indicator of high likelihood/probability of virus induced pneumonia before it hits.

      41

    • #
      yarpos

      “What exactly is the risk to 100 wedding guests, and people can decide if attending is worth the risk. At the moment we just don’t know and they don’t seem to want to tell us.”

      You dont really beleive thats knowable based on random testing do you? The sorts of assurances you are after just arent realistic. eg. is the wedding in the Cedar Meats worker community or say for the locals in Esperance?

      40

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Peter Scammell, you ask
      “1/ What percentage displayed immunity, by demographic?

      Interesting question which will be answered in the fullness of time. However as this is a new disease which we knew zip about in January, nor how to test for even, doing what you ask has been impossible. the earning curve world wide has been steep. And most of the effort has gone into finding the infected and separating then out from the non infected. And of course caring for those stricken by the disease.

      2/ What percentage were asymptomatic but infectious, by demographic?” We do not really know. There have been various figures for the asymptomatic.. Up to 20% has been mentioned many times. But real data has not been released to the public ‘for privacy ‘ reasons. I actually find this very concerning. The public has a right to know who is infected and still in the community.
      We are still struggling with this ‘right to privacy’ thing even in the midst of a major pandemic. IMO the public have the right to now who is infected.

      25

  • #
    ren

    “Interleukin 6 (IL-6) is a pleiotropic cytokine exerting multidirectional effects on the cells of both innate and acquired immune systems. This cytokine is recognized as a key factor regulating the defence mechanisms of organisms. Its ability to initiate and regulate acute inflammation as well as to facilitate and direct an acquired immune response are the major functions of this cytokine. Interleukin 6 also exerts systemic effects. Overproduction of IL-6 mediates a shift from acute to chronic inflammation and is critical for the development of some diseases. The structure of IL-6 and its receptors, the signal transduction pathways and biological activities, as well as the implications of this cytokine in animal models of both arthritis and rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are reviewed. Currently available data show that IL-6 blockade will be a useful therapeutic strategy for RA patients and has scientific support.”
    While there has been an obvious thrust toward developing antivirals and vaccines to counter the Covid-19 pandemic, companies are repurposing drugs originally intended for chronic autoimmune disorders that target cytokine storm syndrome (CSS), which is also associated with Covid-19 illness. In the absence of antiviral therapy, it is important to treat the overexuberant immune responses seen in Covid-19 patients, said Dr Randy Cron, professor of Pediatrics and Medicine, the University of Alabama at Birmingham.

    The protocols for Sanofi/Regeneron’s Phase II/III Kevzara (sarilumab) trial (NCT04315298), Roche’s Phase III COVACTA study (NCT04320615) of Actemra/RoActemra (tocilizumab) and Hemel Hempstead, UK-based Eusa’s Sylvant (siltuximab) trial (NCT04322188) indicate the inclusion of patients who may require oxygen through invasive ventilation, considered in critical cases.

    Yet, experts emphasised the need to use anti-IL-6 repurposed antibodies before hospitalised Covid-19 patients become critically ill or require mechanical ventilation to give the therapies the best chance to be effective mechanistically. Acute lung injury and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) are common consequences of CSS, which then necessitate interventions like mechanical ventilation to help a patient breathe.
    https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/comment/sanofi-partners-repurposed-antibodies-covid-19/

    50

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    97% junk climate science par excellence:

    “Our analysis shows governments failed to compel Adani to fully investigate the environmental risks posed by its water plans, despite concerns raised by scientists.

    Our research published today in Nature Sustainability documents how state and federal governments repeatedly ignored independent scientific advice when assessing and approving the Adani mine’s groundwater plans.”

    https://theconversation.com/australia-listened-to-the-science-on-coronavirus-imagine-if-we-did-the-same-for-coal-mining-138212

    >> But, but … the “science” says that coal miners replace the groundwater …

    GREENS leader Bob Brown says the coal mining industry should foot the bill for the floods because it helped cause them.

    https://www.news.com.au/breaking-news/coal-miners-to-blame-for-queensland-floods-says-australian-greens-leader-bob-brown/news-story/cbfe12042fa9c4149ea3c10524f57344

    When the coal miners mine less, the rain doesn’t flood.
    It’s “science”.

    160

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    If the lockdown is really about not overflowing ICUs, let’s end the lockdown here and now …

    Coronavirus ward created to treat COVID-19 patients at Geelong hospital sits empty as managers hail its success
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-09/coronavirus-ward-geelong-hospital-yet-to-admit-covid-19-patient/12194222

    171

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Coronavirus Update XIII by Briggs.

    Trump had a press conference and mentioned bad models. CSPAN gave the transcript (they wrote in all caps):

    “THE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN EXACTLY ACCURATE.
    THESE ARE MODELS DONE BY THINK TANKS, UNIVERSITIES.
    LOOK AT SOME OF THE MODELS.
    THEY HAVE BEEN WAY OFF.”

    “Speaking of models, somebody did a code review of Imperial College’s model.
    They discovered it stinks.
    We knew this was true before the code review, because that model predicted the coronavirus would be worse than the Spanish Flu!
    It had something like 50,000 Americans dying a day at the peak.
    That model should have been tossed out and never listened to.”

    https://wmbriggs.com/post/30804/

    >> It was listened to.
    The world economy was closed because of it.

    Covid-19 Model Failures Illustrate Climate Model Shortcomings
    http://climaterealism.com/2020/04/covid-19-model-failures-illustrate-climate-model-shortcomings/

    COVID19 models – a lesson for those who trust climate scientists
    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/covid19_models_a_lesson_for_those_who_trust_climate_scientists/

    “Professor Robert Dingwall, a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) which feeds into Sage, warns that “frankly modelling is not that much of an upgrade on crystal balls”.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/04/26/governments-guided-science-mantra-really-means/

    Some of the latest climate models provide unrealistically high projections of future warming
    https://phys.org/news/2020-04-latest-climate-unrealistically-high-future.html

    141

  • #
    AndyG55

    How many people actually condone this sort of police action?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7WMJdzLv0U&feature=youtu.be

    Look at the police breaking every “lockdown” rule of social distancing.

    The whole episode is totally disgusting.

    Is this really what Australia has become ???????

    132

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Hi Andy,

      Yes, an ugly scene, but other reports say she’s an antivaxer campaigner as well.

      From another point of view I’m concerned that any mother would put their child through that for any cause. It would have been wiser to leave the boy with his father.

      KK

      98

      • #
        GlenM

        True, but the observation that there is little difference between totalitarianism and so-called democracy seems to hold.

        71

      • #
        MP

        Morning Keith, These people are not anti-vaccine, they are anti crap that goes in vaccines.
        This is a good video, past half way it gets into the corruption in the vaccine industry, people should be concerned.

        This was banned by Their Tube, no idea why it popped back up?

        https://youtu.be/Kji5d3MOrQM

        50

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Hi MP,

          Antivaxxers got a bad name for denying normal well established protection for their children.

          Polio, diphtheria, whooping cough and tetanus as examples.

          They’ve been at it for a long time and I think of it as a kind of parasitism that benefits from the willingness of others to accept that responsibility.

          On the other hand, I am also an antivaxxer.

          When the annual? Flu Shot first appeared I let it go for the first couple of years then had a few.
          2018 was my last and I’ve resisted doctors annual call to arms since then.
          One year I had a bad reaction and it may have been the same year that a couple of children died in WA of these vaccinations.

          I’ve been a bit sceptical about the capacity of the vaccine companies to examine the Nu Flu, prepare it, test it adequately and then distribute it in the same way my other vaccinations had been offered.

          If the lady above is only protesting about the Flu Vax or the upcoming CV19 Vac™ then I’m right with her.

          My main issue is what she did to the kid, bad news, perhaps even unmotherly.

          I’m no admirer of big pharma given what I understand about their production and marketing of SSRIs, something I’ve touched on before.

          KK

          Reply to previous. 🙂

          http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/the-stroke-virus-covid-causes-hundreds-of-microclots-throughout-the-lungs-and-everywhere-else/#comment-2328674

          40

          • #
            MP

            You didn’t watch it did you.

            I am also anti vaccine, the crap that goes into them and the age that they are started in children. But I am for the rights of a parent and all human beings.

            There is no good corruption, when vaccine companies lobby for a law that gives them indemnity from being sued or facing any charges, things go down hill from there. No warranty, yet you can’t buy a $30 grinder as by law it has to have a warranty. But not vaccines. Look at the web of corruption in the vaccine industry every player is bought.
            I cannot trust these people at all let alone with peoples lives.
            All testing and studies are only done by the manufacture.

            I can’t be against one vaccine and for all others as the crap in them is the same.

            Bill Gates and the WHO are up to 500,000 children crippled by their Polio vaccine. its a synthetic vaccine developed by Gates, he manipulated the virus. (maybe like Wuflu) The only polio

            I don’t think she went there to be arrested, she went there to protest her rights. Though the video only shows a small part of the story.

            Watch the video please, you will see it is not anti vaccine.

            40

          • #
            MP

            You didn’t watch it did you.

            I am also anti vaccine, the crap that goes into them and the age that they are started in children. But I am for the rights of a parent and all human beings.

            There is no good corruption, when vaccine companies lobby for a law that gives them indemnity from being sued or facing any charges, things go down hill from there. No warranty, yet you can’t buy a $30 grinder as by law it has to have a warranty. But not vaccines. Look at the web of corruption in the vaccine industry every player is bought.
            I cannot trust these people at all let alone with peoples lives.
            All testing and studies are only done by the manufacture.

            I can’t be against one vaccine and for all others as the crap in them is the same.

            Bill Gates and the WHO are up to 500,000 children crippled by their Polio vaccine. its a synthetic vaccine developed by Gates, he manipulated the virus. (maybe like Wuflu) The only polio in India is now classified as Non-Polio-Polio, the cure is now far worse then the disease.

            I don’t think she went there to be arrested, she went there to protest her rights. Though the video only shows a small part of the story.

            Watch the video please, you will see it is not anti vaccine.

            11

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        There’s a moderated response waiting.

        10

        • #
          MP

          I’ve gone all over the shop here?

          00

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            I’ve just gone to watch the first five minutes: the whole thing is an hour and a half.

            You mentioned a number of dead children from polio vaccine which is apparently a different product to the one I was vaccinated with many decades ago.

            What’s the deal there? Half a million kids are victims of polio vaccine jabs?

            KK

            11

            • #
              MP

              Howdy Keith, yeah I was shocked, I knew it was 50’000 as I got a paper of a study done by India’s health mob. India chucked Gates and the WHO out of the country and was suing the lot. They then continued through the rest of the third world.
              That number comes from Robert Kennedy’s Website, (JFK) he is in charge of some government vaccine investigation.
              Someone dropped a link last week to the paper, can’t remember when, may of been Original Steve.

              That Doco the real evil is at the end. I also believe the mothers. Yeah its long but everyone should at least listen to the views of others, doctors, CDC themselves.

              I trust you can do a quick search for those to prove the claim, if not I can dig them up.

              The mod must of blown a shift in regard to your other post!.

              Cheers (this thread died quick)

              31

            • #
              greggg

              I got encephalomyelitis from a polio vaccine when I was a kid and I’ve had neurological symptoms ever since. There were outbreaks of M.E. from the polio vaccine in the past, and a lot of people with M.E. had it triggered by other vaccines as well.
              Polio vaccines have been contaminated by simian viruses in the past, eg SV40 and simian cytomegalovirus. Also some outbreaks of polio were caused by live virus polio vaccines.

              32

              • #
                MP

                Yeah I was pin cushioned as a kid, had everything that was handed out. Got the measles twice and the chicken pox and I was a pretty sick kid at times.

                I don’t trust the p#icks, see the video up above?

                01

            • #
              MP

              Its oral now. Polio vaccine.

              01

    • #
      el gordo

      The mother is a nut case and the youngster knows the truth…. “mummy don’t do it”. Thankfully for his sake its not a war zone and the memory will lapse.

      77

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Don’t take your young kids to a protest where you know you’re going to be arrested, was another on YouTube yesterday this time a guy with a double pram and two kids .
      He was taken down by a swarm of cops but it never said what he did though .
      The police were giving move on orders to anyone filming and putting themselves in front of the camera to try and stop the filming of the arrest .

      43

    • #
      yarpos

      Police in their everyday work also park where they like, speed, get in fights and ocassionally shoot people (I guess its the donuts)

      42

      • #
        AndyG55

        “You’re under arrest !”

        “What for ?”

        “We aren’t telling you, but you are under arrest anyway.”

        And obviously, social distancing does not apply to the cops !

        31

    • #
      sophocles

      Lay a complaint.

      There seems to be a level of ‘I’m a cop, I won’t get sick.’ arrogance in there.

      41

    • #
      MP

      People are pushing back around the world.

      https://youtu.be/AqeVRCF8M60

      21

  • #
    Richard Ilfeld

    “OK. It’s late Tuesday somewhere in the world.”

    …and it’s Five O Clock somewhere. Time to turn off the news and have a beer.

    71

    • #
      Greg in NZ

      Meanwhile here in Jacindaland it’s Wednthursday (sometimes spelled Groundhog Day).

      On the penultimate day of Panic Level #3, our non-elected government goons are ramming through backdoor laws providing ‘enforcement officers’ yet more power to enter private premises if they ‘believe’ (insert any old excuse you want) is occurring.

      Lest we forget: ‘We’re all in this together… until there’s a vaccine… and be kind”. Yeah nah. Tr’uble at mill, methinks, ma’am.

      101

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        O.K.

        We’re in Wodensday, I can’t wait to see what happens on Fridensday.
        How will it be re-labeled.

        11

        • #
          Greg in NZ

          ‘Wokesday’ is every day for Jacintaphiles *

          Woden betide you, Thor said to Frida, as Saturn hid behind the Sun. And the Moon? A Tue!!!

          * Dear Leader said we had to remain “spaced out” at all times – heck, I’m doing my best with limited funds 😉

          51

  • #

    Here is the conclusion from my latest article:

    So maybe all we need is for frightened children to start suing the evergreen press for scaring them. Stranger things have happened.

    Here is the whole article:

    USA Today pushes climate panic
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/05/10/usa-today-pushes-climate-panic/

    I recently described the all too often case where extreme computer modeling results feed the media into then feeding a public panic. A cascade of mindless fear. See my https://www.cfact.org/2020/04/27/tale-of-two-panics-covid-climate/.

    USA Today has now provided a perfect example of promoting model based panic. Here is their panicky title: “Unsuitable for ‘human life to flourish’: Up to 3B will live in extreme heat by 2070, study warns”

    Three billion people will live where humans cannot survive? Seriously? Will they become billions of climate refugees? That is the absurd idea, right?

    USA Today is a trusted source for many people, but here they publish pure nonsensical alarmist speculation as accepted fact. Note that the headline does not say “study suggests”. No it is “study warns” as though this nonsense were real and something to act on. Perhaps a ten year lockdown is called for, or even greater green sacrifices.

    The article merely mentions in passing that this is just another (hyperbolic) computer result, nowhere even hinting that this is not something even remotely real. There is no hint of scientific caution. No alternative view, no questioning analysis or opinion, nothing. The entire article is written as though this nonsense were somehow an established fact. They even use a picture of the Sahara desert, which is more dry than hot. Three billion people who are now doing okay are going to find themselves in a new Sahara-like desert, in just 50 years? I think not. This is obviously pure alarmist junk.

    But USA Today says it is so. Their prestigious endorsement is the real problem.

    The question is how to change how the major news outlets report this stuff? We now have data about children being terrorized by climate change fears. Perhaps suing for an injunction against panic mongering?

    There is of course freedom of the press. But there is also the well known limit that one is not allowed to cry “fire” when there is none. This is the law against creating false panics. This law needs to be brought to bear on the rampant climate alarmism, such as this USA Today panic mongering.

    This “unsuitable” article exhibits what I call the one word hoax. Will versus might. This fallacy is the essence of AGW.

    Then there is the legal issue of intent. Climate alarmist’s clearly intend to scare people, including children. Is intent an issue in an equity case? We are just calling for balance, which in this case means pointing out that this is just a computer speculation, against which there are other computers and opinions.

    Mind you I would not rule out a suit for damages due to distress. Absent intent there is still negligence. This is negligent journalism. The virus panic should help make the point. How scare filled journalism can ruin whole economies.

    My favorite legal maxim is you can always sue. One need not win to make the point. I once zeroed a federal agency by suing them, then dropping the suit. The publicity was enough to win.

    So maybe all we need is for frightened children to start suing the evergreen press for scaring them. Stranger things have happened.

    David

    100

    • #

      Note that doctrine like freedom of the press counts little in a jury trial. Putting some tearful children on the stand talking about their climate change nightmares might very well get a jury angry. This threat could be enough to get the press lawyers to advise not being scary.

      40

    • #
      sophocles

      Hm. Who are the biggest predators — lawyers or fake news-pedlars?

      The Press being sued for doing what they allege/claim to be `doing their job’ — scaring the bejesus out of the general public with egregious untruths, the fakest of fake news — is a frankly great idea. It meshes well with our concepts of `justice’ and child protection.

      It also meshes extremely well with one of my fantasies about them deserving such punishment.

      So when can we expect to see the Grauniad arraigned?
      (I could volunteer for the jury! 😀 `No, yer, honour, I’m totally unprejudiced, yer honour, I’ll give the bueggars a fair trial, yer honour, just you watch!’

      40

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    Another Ian

    “@SharriMarkson of The Daily Telegraph — China’s People’s Liberation Army has conducted the genetic sequencing and virus isolation for scientific research into the origins of Coronavirus which has been published in esteemed medical, Nature.”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2020/05/12/one-flu-out-of-the-wuhan-nest-2/

    30

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    January 29, 2020: Australian Renewable Energy Agency To Run Out Of Cash Soon

    “The Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) will reportedly run out of money for new projects around the middle of this year.”

    https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/arena-renewables-funding-mb1385/

    Watch this space.

    80

  • #
    Robber

    Victoria seems to be on a different CV19 trend line to the rest of Australia.
    In mid April, Vic had 148 active cases, now 113, after dropping to 50 at the start of May.
    Qld 552 down to 18; NSW 1500 to 460; SA 150 to 1; Tas 109 to 27.
    Part of Vic increase has been due to the meat works, but seems there is another outbreak.

    40

  • #
    el gordo

    My obsession at the moment, hydrothermal heat.

    http://icecap.us/index.php/go/new-and-cool

    20

  • #
    Reed Coray

    What day of the week is Tuednesday?

    20

  • #
    Aaron Christiansen

    Wuhan reports first coronavirus cluster since lockdown lifted: https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-s-wuhan-reports-first-coronavirus-cluster-since-lockdown-lifted-20200512-p54rzj.html

    (Despite potential positive testing results…)

    China does not include asymptomatic cases in its overall tally of confirmed cases, now at 82,918, until they exhibit signs of infection.

    11

  • #
    Aaron Christiansen

    Switzerland rolls back coronavirus lockdown earlier (ie a month) than expected: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-switzerland-virus-restrictions.html

    “We are in a new phase and we must learn to live with the virus,” Swiss President Simonetta Sommaruga told a press conference in Bern.

    41

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      Serp

      Effectively the Swiss are saying we are entering a new epoch in which things will be done differently. Activity will be moderated by the virus load a person can tolerate. Over ninety year olds won’t venture off their property and those in the sixties and seventies will make furtive ten minute duration raids on shopping centres only at quiet times. Soon enough this oppression will be unremarked, just another new normal.

      00

  • #

    Okay then, consider this.

    One coal fired power plant, Bayswater equals 60 Wind Plants

    Let that sink in for a minute, and ponder the ridiculous statement that wind power is cheaper than coal fired power.

    One new wind plant opened in Victoria in recent times, the three stages of the Dundonnell wind plant in Central Western Victoria.

    Now, while the Nameplate for the three stages in total is 335MW, when the CF is taken into account, that gives this new supposedly state of the art brand new wind plant an equivalent output averaging just 100MW. Now the cost was $560 Million. For just 100MW output. When added to the overall existing wind plants, that gives wind power a total Nameplate of 7295MW. So, when compared to say Bayswater coal fired power plant with its Nameplate of 2640MW and that means that wind power has Nameplate which is 2.76 times HIGHER than this one coal fired power plant. However, when the actual power generation for delivery to the grid and consumption by those connected to the grid, Bayswater generates and delivers around 17500GWH of power each year to that grid. EVERY single one of those wind plants, 60 of them in all generate and deliver, umm, 17500GWH of power, and that’s the same yearly power delivery as this ONE coal fired power plant at Bayswater. So here we have 60 wind plants at an immense cost in many many billions of dollars, and only now has it equalled the power delivered from just ONE coal fired power plant. And Bayswater will last for 50 years, At the absolute best case scenario, all those wind plants will be lucky if they make it to 25 years, and 15 years would be closer to the mark.

    Consider that the total power delivery is the same. those 60 wind plants have to sell their power to the grid. They have to sell it at a cost enough to RECOVER the original construction cost, which is many many billions of dollars. They have only 15 to 25 years to do that. Bayswater has 50 years to do that. Bayswater sells its huge power in huge blocks, because it is actually capable of doing that, Each individual wind plant sells tiny blocks of power as they become available, and who knows when that might be. Selling a huge block when needed, then you can cost that competitively, and selling a tiny block at odd times here and there, then you can’t sell it at a price that can compete with huge amounts of power.

    As to the cost of the coal, Well, the company which owns Bayswater, also owns the huge coal mine where its fuel comes from, so it’s their own coal they use, but again, that’s incidental really, as the costs involved would not even come close to other costs incurred at wind plants. As to maintenance, Bayswater has FOUR units at ground level on the one site, within that compact site. All those wind plants have ….. 3700 PLUS individual Units in tiny spaces inside nacelles on top of 400 feet plus towers with anything up to 50 or more towers on a large site with 60 of those sites spread across a vast area, so maintenance etc is humungously monumentally incredibly higher. Those wind plants rely on already constructed infrastructure to piggy back their power to the grid, and only now are having to also construct further infrastructure to deliver their power, at a further cost hidden from the actual cost of the power they generate, but still, an overall cost of wind generation going to the consumer.

    Wind plants rely on the taxpayer (at both federal and state level) to cover half the up front cost of the plants at construction. Wind plants rely on dedicated cost for the power they might sell (also at both federal and state level) to, umm, augment their costs. They also rely on those other subsidies for generated power.

    60 wind plants, and only now, are they equalling the power delivery of ONE coal fired power plant.

    That coal fired plant can deliver its power ‘on tap’ when needed. Those 60 wind plants (shrug shoulders who knows) can only deliver on the whim of the wind.

    What more can you say? It’s just pitiful that so much money is spent on a source of power generation that is just not up to it.

    And as to the blah blah blah response that …. oh, we really mean ….. NEW coal fired power. Huh! Construct that new coal fired plant alongside Bayswater and when one closes the other opens. The cost will still be HUGELY lower than for 60 wind plants.

    Or even, just sayin here. how about construct it at the site of that ancient old Liddell plant and when that closes, the new one opens, withing cooee line of sight to Bayswater, and using the same coal.

    Now, read the bolded block quote at the top again, and let it sink in. One coal fired power plant ….. SIXTY wind plants.

    Tony.

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      Yes but I keep seeing LCOE’s showing wind cheaper than coal. We should look at one of those in detail to see how they do it.

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        Robber

        How they calculate LCOEs is by ignoring the fact that when the wind doesn’t blow, there must be 100% backup available, and equally, when the wind blows strongly some other reliable power source must cut back generation. Australia’s chief scientist calculated some LCOEs back in 2017 that reported wind $92/MWhr (no backup), large solar $91/MWhr (no backup), large solar with 12 hours backup $172/MWhr, new coal $76/MWhr.

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          Graeme#4

          Also need to look closely at the LCOE timespan. Many of these LCOEs are calculated only across 30 years, while the average life of a coal power station is 50 years.

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            Robber

            And last time I looked, they were adding a risk factor to the required return on investment for coal stations, because despite that long life, in some climate change scenarios they could be forced to close.

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      Kalm Keith

      The Maintenance.

      Costly and dangerous.

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      Chad

      ..TonyfromOz
      May 13, 2020 at 9:54 am
      As to the cost of the coal, Well, the company which owns Bayswater, also owns the huge coal mine where its fuel comes from, so it’s their own coal they use, but again, that’s incidental really, as the costs involved would not even come close to other costs incurred at wind plants.

      Tony, whilst i agree with your basic point as to the financial ..and practical…failure of Wind generation, …you cannot ignore the fundamental fact (cost) of fuel costs for thermal plants, in this case coal.
      Bayswater owners may have therir own coal mine, but there is a cost to mine the coal and get it to the generator furnaces ..currently .$20-$25 per tonne. “Mine mouth cost”
      Since it take approx 0,5 tonnes of thermal coal to produce each MWh of electricity..that is a $10=12 /MWh cost which is unavoidable, and a significant proportion of the current $30-40 avaerage NSW wholesale electricity cost.
      Further , a financial cynic might point out that the “market price” for thermal coal is $65-70 / Tonne currently, and the “real” cost of fuel for that electricity is $30-35 / MWh !!

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        Kalm Keith

        I can’t see where he has ignored that?

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          Chad

          Here…

          As to the cost of the coal, Well, the company which owns Bayswater, also owns the huge coal mine where its fuel comes from, so it’s their own coal they use, but again, that’s incidental really, as the costs involved would not even come close to other costs incurred at wind plants.

          The “value” of the coal burned could be more than the wholesale cost of electricity sales !
          …but im sure they dont want to look at it that way.
          Even at. $10 /.MWh ( 25%. Of revenue)….you cannot dismiss it as an “incidental” figure !
          And what “Other. Costs” do wind farms incurr on that scale. ?

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            Kalm Keith

            Chad, all that statement is saying is that there’s No middleman and so they have a benefit there. It’s not sensible to suggest that they aren’t paying for coal?

            KK

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              Chad

              Keith, Middleman or not, ..there is still a significant fuel costs which are very significant and cannot be ignored in any realistic comparison between coal and wind generation.
              There is also a $7.5 duty ( Royalty) payable for every tonne of coal mined.

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            Kalm Keith

            [Duplicate]

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      Dennis

      Planet Of The Humans, wind and solar exposed …

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE

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      Lance

      Figures lie, and Liars figure. That is how LCOE ought be viewed. The devil is in the details, as intended.

      LCOE was originated to compare Coal vs. Nuclear for cost comparison. It was not intended to “hide” costs of voltage support, frequency support, stranded generation, intermittency, etc.
      As used today, it is a political term that means whatever the authors intend it to mean without regard to end delivery costs.
      The current energy market has so many features/bugs/variables that can be “modeled” to mean anything at all as they wish it.

      The only meaningful comparison is “actual fully burdened delivered cost as contracted for absolute delivery”.

      Let the generators set their guaranteed actual cost for bids into the power pool for time of day delivery with no excuses or exceptions. Stop trying to model a politically and financially dynamic system. One cannot externally model what isn’t knowable. So don’t do it. Let the purveyors do that at their risk. The generators have greater systemic knowledge than the regulators because the generators must factor in all the known/expected/knowable constraints that impact their cost structure for a reasonably forseeable window of time, say 6 months.

      The Levelized Comparison would then be the actual contracted price for guaranteed delivery of stable power in terms of quantity, frequency, voltage. Who cares how they do it? Let each generator bid for that goal. The Solar/Wind generators would have to include “ancillary costs” in order to meet their guaranteed delivery contract. Thermal generators as well. If new transmission lines are needed for solar/wind, let them include those costs in their bid. Whatever amortization and subsidy plans they are comfortable with will be reflected in their contracted cost. The end user doesn’t care how they do it, end users only care what they actually pay for what is delivered. Allow a 10% swing in the system for random demand spikes or some such means of handling minor anomalies.

      If a wind generator bids for 50 MW, 50 Hz +/- 0.1%, 230V +/- 3%, at 1400 hrs on Saturday into grid xyz, then let them deliver it. If they cannot deliver it, they must purchase the shortfall from whatever source necessary to fulfill the contract. If frequency or voltage drop, they must pay to have those services provided at their expense, not mine.

      Instead of arguing about which generation method is better or worse, judge them on their actual delivery of stable power. Let them all bid their best price and hold them to it, inclusive of “ancillary costs” to do so.

      The present system of contracting is not working. It guarantees payment to wind/solar for “electrons” without regard to voltage or frequency. Make the generator responsible for those elements in their bid however they decide to provide them. If they can do so, then fine. If not, perhaps they ought not bid for the power. I don’t really care what they do, so long as the delivered power is at voltage, at frequency, and at quantity. Instead of gaming me, the generators ought bid properly or not at all. Put the responsibility upon those who say they can deliver and make them do so.

      I don’t see any other way out of this mess.

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      Amos E. Stone

      Thank you, Tony, for your islands of sanity in an insane world. This may have escaped your notice:
      https://theenergyst.com/lockdown-lows-make-renewables-the-new-baseload/

      Yes, the National Grid in the UK has paid to shut down 50% of one of our nuclear plants to make way for wind and solar due to low demand. A short while ago they were worried about grid stability, so shutting down a nuclear powered 600MW steam turbine close to London to make way for wind turbines mostly hundreds of miles away in Scotland makes perfect sense, no?

      Sizewell B, 800 staff, 1.2GWe, 25 yr old, CO2 free, ran for 485 days non-stop up to this time last year, then refuelled, so would not have needed to shut down until 2021. What’s that, 600GWh of secure generation chucked to hope the sun and wind can fill the gap, and also hope the frequency stays in limits? Or we’ll burn some gas, we’re not allowed to frac for.

      I’m still fizzing, and all I can find talking about it is the like of the blithering nonsense linked above. At least you are discussing these issues, my inverted friends. Keep safe.

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    Aaron Christiansen

    I consider this low value news, as a one month positive delta could easily be attributed to noise across an entire year, but it is one example of the concerns I have wrt lock downs:

    Worrying rise in suicides in Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly following coronavirus outbreak

    “During the same period last year (Q4 2018/19) there were around six suicides per month on average. In comparison, during March 2020 there are now 13 suicides recorded (adults ranging from 19 to 66 years of age). We do not currently know whether COVID-19 is having a direct (e.g. fear of contracting or having the virus) or indirect (e.g. problems with debt, relationships and housing) impact on the risk of suicide.”

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    Furiously curious

    It keeps coming up that politicians, boards, media are being given lousy advice, that bureaucrats and management are just not up to it, and I keep wanting to scream ‘all the advisers are being appointed by HUMAN RESOURCES. They get to appoint almost everyone. Can anyone come up with a human resources course anywhere, that is not riddled with political correctness, diversity mania and doomster boosting. And these people get to go out and appoint everyone! To me it looks like they are the rot at the core of the incompetence pandemic we live with. When you have to be left wing to get anywhere, everything is being sacrificed to a certain, maybe not high functioning, mindset.

    Until Human Resources is seriously hammered, nothing will change. Seriously hammered. Make 2020 the ‘Year of Hammering Human Resources’!
    But maybe it has gone too far anyway, the’white anting’ is too advanced!? Maybe sometimes the disease needs to run rampant, so it reaches it’s goal, and can be finally seen for what it is, and we have to pick up the pieces, and just begin again, with an at least temporarily cleansed body politic?? Power crazy people are always going to be with us. They just think they are superior to greedy people. “No, I don’t want your big house, and big car, I’m doing this for all the world’s poor people, and I just want to be able to kill you, if you don’t agree with my ideas.”
    Anyway that’s my rant.

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    Peter C

    TUEDNESDAY!

    Only recently I discovered that the days of the week are named after the Sun and the Moon and the five visible planets (visible to the naked eye). This goes back to Babylonian/Ancient Greek times.

    The names of the planets were changed to Roman dieties. ie Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter and Saturn.

    In English; SUNday, MOONday and SATURNday are obvious enough. The other days are more obvious in French; , MARdi (Mars), MERCREdi (Mercury) JEUdi (Jupiter)and VENDREdi (Venus).

    In English some of the roman dieties were changed to Norse gods; Tuesday (Tiw,s day, Wednesday (Woden’s day), Thursday (Thor’s Day) and Friday (Frigg’s day)
    Tiw equates to Mars (god of War)
    Woden equates to Mercury
    Thor corresponds with Jupiter
    Frigg corresponds with Venus.

    In ad 321 Constantine the Great grafted the Hellenistic astrological system onto the Roman calendar, making the first day of the week a day of rest and worship and imposing the following sequence of names on the days: Diēs Sōlis, “Sun’s Day”; Diēs Lūnae, “Moon’s Day”; Diēs Martis, “Mars’s Day”; Diēs Mercuriī, “Mercury’s Day”; Diēs Jovis, “Jove’s Day” or “Jupiter’s Day”; Diēs Veneris, “Venus’s Day”; and Diēs Saturnī, “Saturn’s Day.”

    https://www.thefreedictionary.com/Woden%27s+Day

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      the education system has certainly changed. They get this in year 2 now

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        Peter C

        Year 2! That is an excellent start in the education of very young people.

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          Peter C

          There is always so much to learn from Gee Aye, which is why an occasional visit to his website is so worth while. It is full of interesting information such as the product data sheet for DDT and entertainment such as an image from the TV series Startreck.

          But just recently Gee Aye has started linking to silly websites which do not seem to be his own work. Why the change Gee?

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      WXcycles

      Like it, should change back to those.

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        Peter C

        Yes! Jupiter’s day and Venus’s day have a certain cache.

        Frigg’s day could have been Frea’s day but I though Frigg might remind KK of a favourite song.

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          Kalm Keith

          I’ve wracked my brain Peter, what’s left of it after this CV19 disease, but I can’t connect the song?

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    Another Ian

    ““Coronavirus Pandemic Update 69: “NAC” Supplementation and COVID-19 (N-Acetylcysteine)” ”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/05/10/yet-another-government-corruption-or-medical-fringe/#comment-129596

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    Chad

    More music to brighten the day for those still “self isolating”..
    If you live in one of the fashionably current white painted rooms,..this is apt !
    Good music improves with age..this is 60 6rs old and better than anything currently being produced !
    https://youtu.be/dCc00pX_pFA

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    el gordo

    China Daily has been running stories on pandemics, saying the Black Death originated in Europe and Spanish influenza began in Kansas.

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        el gordo

        The Spanish flu outbreak is pathetic propaganda and they got the idea from the ABC. Sin of omission, aunty doesn’t mention China as the host country.

        ‘Many believe it probably started in army training camps on the Western Front. Soldiers returning from the war brought it back to their home countries.

        ‘Others, though, think it broke out in the US state of Kansas and was spread around the world by American soldiers.’

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        el gordo

        The Black Death also originated in China.

        ‘The plague that caused the Black Death originated in China in the early to mid-1300s and spread along trade routes westward to the Mediterranean and northern Africa. It reached southern England in 1348 and northern Britain and Scandinavia by 1350.’ Brittanica

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    All of these also have politically correct names as well:

    Spanish Flu – Spanish Flu
    Hong Kong Flu – Hong Kong Flu
    MERS – MERS
    Ebola Virus – Ebola Virus
    West Nile Virus – West Nile Virus
    Hendra Virus – Hendra Virus
    Lyme Disease – Lyme Disease
    Ross River Fever – Ross River Fever
    Norovirus – Norovirus
    Marburg Virus – Marburg Virus
    Zika Fever – Zika Fever
    Lassa Fever – Lassa Feve
    Legionnaires Disease – Legionnaires Disease
    German Measles – German Measles

    Wuhan Virus – Hey look over there.

    Please don’t offend the pure as the driven snow CCP

    Tony.

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      Aaron Christiansen

      MERS is Middle East respiratory syndrome.

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        Bill In Oz

        Ohh Good Grief I accidentally gave you a green thumb…
        What to do ?
        Ohh wait, you actually said something true.
        I will forgive myself !

        🙂

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      James in Melbourne

      Tony,

      Have you done a recent Covid-19 update on what now constitutes the morning demand lull of 18,000 MW, and what now constitutes the evening peak demand? And more importantly, what proportions of generation meet these demand levels?

      I’m really looking forward to seeing what the slowdown has done to demand and supply.

      Thanks,

      James in Melbourne

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      Kalm Keith

      Depressing stuff.

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        As the author of that WUWT guest post, I would disagree, and say it is optimistic simply because it exposes the core origin of the smear of Dr Soon and other skeptic climate scientists, and arguably a way via tough legal action to finally hold those merchants of smear accountable for their defamation.

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    greggg

    What It’s Like to Believe Everything the Media Tells You. (About CoViD-19).
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcUAG6t5aN8&feature=youtu.be

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    robert rosicka

    The new Queensland treasurer is behind a push for the state to buy Virgin airlines , just listening to Gary Hargraves on Sky and I’m sure the newspapers will have some fun tomorrow with the play on words given the treasurers last name .

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    cedarhill

    Another article for those that don’t visit Watts Up With That every day:

    Wuhan Virus Vaccines

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/05/13/wuhan-virus-vaccines/

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    Orson

    Good news on the Covid19 treatment front?

    Today (the 13th in the US), we have a positive report on HCQ/Az and zinc combo, via bio pharmacy entrepreneur Rud Istvan, posting at WattsUpWithThat, in a comment on his own thread on CV19 vaccine candidates. I’m simply reposting his comment to alert others to be on the lookout for further developments in this news story.

    Rud Istvan May 13, 2020 at 8:11 am
    Just reported yesterday on Medrx.com, a retrospective study of 900 critical Covid-19 patients in the NYU hospital system. Half were given HCQ plus azithromycin, half HCQ plus Az plus Zinc sulfate. The HCQ plus zinc arm had 1.5x faster time to discharge, and a 44% less chance of dying. Clinically VERY significant. What Fauci demanded, now done. Bad news for Fauci and big pharma. There IS a proven cheap, safe COVID-19 therapy regime.

    The results of the better designed prospective U.Mn/McGill study are not yet available, but probably will be similar since they reduced the original design sample size to speed it up.

    [emphasis added]

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    Mikhail

    Have you seen the “FLICC Poster – Disinformation 101” on the skepticalscience.com website? (It’s on their landing page at the moment – posted May12th).

    Two things immediately spring to mind – “lack of self-awareness” and “beware of unintended consequences”…

    One consequence should be that a “true skeptic” takes each point and shows how the alarmists are the masters of such Disinformation. Something along the lines of…

    Fake Experts? Greta Thunberg, Al Gore, even David Attenborough is on record saying that he is not an expert in climate technology and climate science (see evidence he gave to DEFRA hearing in 2006). The list is long of those who have the ear of the public and yet know very little… my favourite is John Kerry with his CO2 is a like “a thin layer of glass – a quarter-inch, half-inch, somewhere in that vicinity – that’s how thick it is… at the edge of our atmosphere.”…

    Logical Fallacies? 30 years of rising temperatures at the same time as 30 years of rising CO2 – so rising CO2 is the only cause of rising temperature, right? Isn’t that an example of the FLICC poster’s False Choice – Single Cause problem? You could pick your own favourite here too.

    Impossible Expectations? Prove a negative. Prove climate change is not due to rising CO2. Prove human -caused climate change will not have catastrophic consequences.

    Cherry Picking? How come every alarmist graph of rising temperatures never shows the satellite records? The BBC and WEF report that January was hottest ever recorded but forget to mention that Greenland had its lowest ever recorded temperature (Jan 2nd 2020). Again the list is long… The point here should be that 1 data point that disproves the alarmist theory, disproves the alarmist theory.

    Conspiracy Theory? Who on the “denialist” side isn’t in the pay of Big Oil or the Koch brothers? And what about Maurice Strong and Agenda 21? I guess Maurice didn’t really say what he said at the Club of Rome about “finding a new enemy” and that “It does not matter if this common enemy is a real one or …..one invented for the purpose.”…

    Ad Hominem – I guess they mean what is happening to Willie Soon? (see wattsupwiththat.com)

    I wish I had a platform like yours so that I could hold the mirror up to the alarmists and get them to see themselves for what they are…

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