JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Tuesday Open Thread

9 out of 10 based on 10 ratings

69 comments to Tuesday Open Thread

  • #
    Brian

    I got a takeaway coffee yesterday in a cup labeled as being green, made from plants not oil. It was a papper cup with a coating of plastic to stop the paper dissolving. The stupidity is that the plastic coating cannot be separated from the paper so the cup cannot be recycled. Save the Earth, support landfill.

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    • #

      talk to your coffee shop people. There are alternatives.

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    • #
      WXcycles

      The ‘plastic’ covering was probably paraffin wax, a hydrocarbon distillate of oil. Greenies will believe anything and cynical manufacturers will produce anything and market it as ‘green’, and lefties will flock to pay more to use it, even though they know it’s just a scam, because being seen to pseudo-morally virtue-signal is far more important than all other considerations, combined.

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  • #
    pat

    30 Jan: BBC Future: The Vegan Factor: Why vegan junk food may be even worse for your health
    by William Park
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200129-why-vegan-junk-food-may-be-even-worse-for-your-health?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    50

  • #

    open thread on a Tuesday? Preposterous. It never happened in my day and in fact my year 4 teacher said it should not be done and that has stayed with me all my life.

    41

  • #
    pat

    first 13m54s – if you also want the anti-Bolsonaro bit. forget Qatar is one of the leading gas exporters in the world, benefitting from anti-coal CAGW policies. guests tells you everything you need to know really:

    VIDEO: 26m20s: 25 Jan: Aljazeera Listening Post: The Murdoch media: Polluting Australia’s airwaves?
    Presenter: Richard Gizbert
    As bushfires flare, Murdoch’s news empire peddles climate scepticism
    In Australia, soaring temperatures, extended droughts and strong winds have resulted in a wildfire season like no other.
    Yet, as so much of the country burns, most of the Australian media outlets owned by Rupert Murdoch refuse to call this story what scientists say it is: a disaster exacerbated by the climate crisis.

    Millions of acres have been burned out, dozens of people have died, wildlife is on the run and papers like The Australian and networks like Sky News Australia are not only dismissing the scientific consensus, but are trafficking in some false, debunked narratives.

    Murdoch’s media empire has long held a disproportionate influence over Australian politics and he and Prime Minister Scott Morrison are united on this issue. Throw in Murdoch’s close ties to Australia’s powerful fossil fuel lobby and all the elements are there for a conspiracy of disinformation on the biggest, gravest story of our time.
    Contributors:
    Richard Cooke – Contributing editor, The Monthly
    Amy Remeikis – Political reporter, The Guardian Australia
    Rodney Tiffen – Author, Rupert Murdoch: A Reassessment & Emeritus Professor, University of Sydney
    James Painter – Research Associate, Reuters Institute and author, Climate Change in the Media
    https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/listeningpost/2020/01/murdoch-media-polluting-australia-airwaves-200125010210055.html

    21

  • #

    I would like you all to note how much cheaper renewable power is becoming.

    Two brand spanking new wind plants have been added to the grid.

    Both of these new plants are in Tasmania, Cattle Hill Wind Farm Plant, and Granville Harnbour Wind Farm Plant.

    Cattle Hill has a Nameplate of 148MW, and a cost of (and note they only say around) $300 Million.

    Granville Harbour has a Nameplate of 110MW and a cost of (again, around) $280 Million.

    Wow! So much cheaper, eh! So much cheaper.

    So Cattle Hill at it’s year round Capacity Factor of 30% has an equivalent rated power of 44MW, and Granville Harbour is now reduced to 33MW.

    So to deliver the same generated power across a year from Cattle Hill wind plant, as from the Bayswater coal fired power plant with its four Units of 660MW, at its CF of 73.5%, you need 44 plants the size of Cattle Hill, so $300 Million multiplied by 44 comes in at $13.2 Billion.

    And to deliver that same generated power from Granville Harbour as from Bayswater, you would need 59 of them, so $280 Million multiplied by 58 comes in at $16.52 Billion.

    Now, that really does not look cheaper to me, and now also take into account that the coal fired plant also has a life span twice as long as the wind plants, and that’s at the hoped for best case scenario of 25 years for those wind plants at their best case average CF all that time, so $26.5 Billion and $33 Billion.

    What is it about Greenies who have no comprehension of maths.

    Oh, and the largest wind plant in Australia, the plant I told you went off line on Friday Morning, well it’s still off line. Poor Agl, beset by what they might refer to as ‘bad luck’ eh! The new owners must be screamin’

    Tony.

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      Midday in Perth, 35 degrees heading towards 38. 2680MW being easily supplied, 46% from coal and 46% from cheap gas. Wind only 6.8%. No major outages, only 18 MW unplanned, and they even can allow a 105MW generator to be shut down for servicing. Everything Hoi g well, as expected, on another hot day.
      That’s what happens folks, when you are NOT connected to the “National” grid!

      20

      • #
        Graeme#4

        going, not Hoi g..
        And I’m sitting here in air-conditioned comfort, supported by over 4kW from my newly-installed solar system. Yes I know, I’m a hypocrite, but even at 26c/unit, the electricity bills in summer were large.

        10

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      It’s you who deserves the Gold Star
      Power generation medal Tony !
      For clarity and honesty !
      But I doubt anyone will award it.
      So in place 10 green thumbs !
      And my thanks
      Bill

      30

    • #
      Robert Swan

      One fun way of comparing price:

      Bentley Continental GT 2019 model:
       Price $422,000
       Power: 465kW

      Cattle Hill’s 148MW would be comfortably covered with 320 Bentley Continentals.

       Cost $135 million (might get a discount for a bulk purchase).

      Less than half the cost of the wind generators. Admittedly it IS fossil fuelled, but the power is dispatchable, and you’d get lots of comfy leather seats and a much nicer sound.

      Seriously though, how on earth does it take SO MUCH MONEY for such pitiful power (and nameplate at that)? There must be economies of scale, so I think it’s because at the foot of this rainbow is a massive pot of “government” money (aka our taxes).

      10

    • #
      Joe

      Tony, I think your calcs are only comparing the capital costs of the power plants themselves and not actually the costs of the energy generated. You could plug in a rough say $2Bn to a $fewBn for a 1GW modern coal plant and $40-50/MWh for a bit of back-of-the-envelope fuel costs for the coal plants over the 50 year expected life and maybe make the crude assumption that the wind won’t incur some sort of future tax either 🙂 and that might give us a better idea of the actual energy generation costs comparison. It might not look as bad as the straight capital costs which, as you point out are still worlds apart.

      10

      • #
        Graeme#4

        Still need to include the annual wind farm maintenance costs Joe. Perhaps they are similar to coal plant maintenance costs, so they may cancel out.

        20

        • #
          Graeme#4

          Also forgot to mention the biggie – another entire wind farm required in 25 years.

          40

          • #
            Furiously curious

            Saw an article in the last week or so, saying the Chinese were replacing their wind generators after 15 yrs, and not building new sites, just replacing the generators at the best, windiest sites.

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            • #

              I actually think that might happen everywhere really.

              When it comes time to replace those aging turbines etc, they’ll just do it at the better sites for power generation.

              It’s no easy thing either with respect to the cost. About the only thing they ….. ‘may’ ….. be able to keep is the actual concrete tower itself, and even that would be a stretch.

              The concrete structure would be specifically designed to hold the existing nacelle sitting on top. If they wanted to put up a larger generator, then that’s a whole new larger nacelle, and the tower itself may not be capable of holding, or designed to hold a larger nacelle. Larger nacelle and larger blades structure as well.

              They may have to totally reconstruct the whole thing.

              Now see how costly an exercise like that would be. It’s not a refurbishment per se, but a complete new plant, added to the cost of taking all the old ones down.

              And now it looks like 12 to 15 years instead of the ‘modelled’ 25 years.

              Wind power is NOT cheap at all, on top of the fact that it doesn’t really work either.

              Tony.

              60

              • #
                Peter C

                The Tower is steel. The Base is concrete.

                12-15 years means we will be seeing the closure or replacement of many wind plants fairly soon. I can think of one wind plant that closed in WA a few years ago. Anyone know of others?

                50

              • #
                Chad

                Each new generation of wind turbines are bigger capacity, heavier,, and require much longer blades than previous…..which dictates much taller towers
                Taller towers means much higher force moments on both the tower and the base pad,..which means it would all need to be replaced .
                California has thousands of abandoned winf turbines just left to rust because the operators went bust rather than clean up their property.

                20

              • #
                Graeme#4

                Agree Tony. I couldn’t see any company digging all around a tower base then adding more concrete to support a bigger tower. Surely they would just dig another big hole nearby, pour in another 60 truckloads of concrete, leaving the locals with yet another permanent big block of concrete.
                The UK has reported shorter lifetimes of ocean-based wind farms, In Germany, 15GW of wind power is over 15 years old.

                30

              • #

                Surely they would just dig another big hole nearby, pour in another 60 truckloads of concrete, leaving the locals with yet another permanent big block of concrete.

                I saw recently that when decommissioning these towers, they only have to refurbish the soil to a depth of 2 metres/ 4 metres (can’t recall) or so, meaning effectively that the huge block of concrete just stays in the ground.

                I’ll bet no fossil fuel entity gets the same amount of latitude when it comes to reclamation of the site.

                Tony.

                30

            • #
              Graeme#4

              Furiously, I note that the recent wind farm decommissioning paper mentioned recently had a farm design lifetime of 25 years.

              20

    • #
      Chad

      What is it about Greenies who have no comprehension of maths.

      The greenies are not much more than a distraction in this farce of power generation.
      The decisions an motivation for the RE generators, are mainly made by investors and businessmen.
      And the owners of the wind and solar farms are not concerned with how much power they produce or their “CF” performance, ..all they are doing is generating massive returns on their relatively low investments.
      You have to realise that those low capacity wind farms are producing much higher Financial returns than a much bigger , and more capital intensive, coal generator plant.
      The RE generators are primarily just in it for the money rather than any environmental or community benefits,

      40

  • #
    TedM

    Keep the facts coming Tony. Really appreciate your very useful posts.

    30

  • #
    TedM

    Just looked at nem watch widget. All of SA’s wind plants producing a massive 23MW at 1400 central standard time.

    Yep they really are cooking with gas, not much other choice.

    50

  • #
    Ian1946

    Queensland is importing electricity from NSW are there coal units down? Usually power flow the other way.

    20

    • #
      TedM

      SA is feeding into Vic which is probably feeding some into NSW. Lucky for SA that it’s not cloudy at the moment. With a bit of luck the wind will still be down when the sun sets. Not that they will ever learn.

      10

  • #
    TedM

    Who with even half a brain would install at huge cost, a power system that only works some of the time?

    SIGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    20

    • #
      Chad

      Probably Someone who wanted very high financial return on their investment !
      Look closely at the financials compared to a coal or gas plant.
      The market is heavily skewed (rigged ?) to favour Wind and solar generation.

      30

  • #
    Brian

    Right now coal and gas are producing 85% of demand and wind a mere 5%, despite the massive level of funding it has consumed. Prices are down to less than $40 per MWh, except in renewables heavy South Australia where it is over $300 as all those terribly expensive wind farms sit idle and gas generators run flat out.

    40

  • #
    Zane

    Victoria went from max 44C to 17C in the space of a few days. It got downright chilly.

    30

    • #
      Sputnik

      Did Victoristan turn off all their coal and gas power plants? Surely that’s the only explanation there.?

      30

      • #
        Zane

        No, a large air mass from Antarctica decided to move north to help Novak Djokovic win the Australian Open again.

        20

  • #
    WXcycles

    JETSTREAM UPDATE

    Globally the jetstream flows remain swollen and much faster than usual. The new east Pacific and Atlantic “equatorial-jet” phenomena remain well established and reasonably stable. The flow of air from the south to the north across the equator remains ubiquitous and strong, especially in the equatorial upper level. Ultra-dry stratosphere sunken into the troposphere remains present in an around the strongest of jets.

    First the observations, then the 10 day forecast

    Midnight last night OBSERVATIONS:

    34 k ft
    https://i.ibb.co/cN3pYr1/a-12-midnight-4th-Feb-2020-34-kft-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted-4.jpg

    45 k ft
    https://i.ibb.co/gvQbxXr/b-12-midnight-4th-Feb-2020-45-kft-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted-5.jpg

    10 Days from now FORECAST:

    34 k ft
    https://i.ibb.co/g75y4Jk/c-13th-Feb-2020-34-kft-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted-2.jpg

    45 k ft
    https://i.ibb.co/tC06SpD/d-13th-Feb-2020-45-kft-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted-3.jpg

    Note the equatorial-jets remain well defined either side of the equator and showing little sign of fading away.

    If anything the largest strongest jets are getting deeper as the following forecast jet on the 8th of Feb, can be observed from 45 k ft down to as low as 2,000 ft, the deepest jet I’ve seen so far.

    https://i.ibb.co/CQttjNG/e-411-kmh-34-000-ft-N-Atlantic-on-8th-Feb-2020-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted-1.jpg

    This jet to the east of Japan is also in the 400 km/h range, and its base remains full of 0.0% relative-humidity formerly stratospheric air.

    https://i.ibb.co/yF3cn0P/f-400-kmh-39-k-ft-7th-Feb-2020-E-Japan-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted.png

    https://i.ibb.co/gVhygY0/g-10-k-ft-Sunken-stratosphere-remains-in-the-bottom-of-stronger-jets-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted-1.png

    0.0% rh ultra-dry formerly stratospheric air continues to drop into the lower troposphere, globally.

    https://i.ibb.co/WHmWmxf/14-k-ft-global-relative-humidity-Screenshot-2020-02-04-Windy-as-forecasted.jpg

    The southern hemisphere jets are a little weaker than the north-hem at present, but otherwise look little different, they remain swollen and even stronger than they normally are in Winter.

    Antarctic icesheet temperatures are also forecast to drop down further, as low as -50 C during late Summer.

    40

  • #
    pat

    anyone who caught anything of the absolute fiasco that was the Democrat Iowa Caucus today, will know Sanders was ahead in all the latest polls, & the Dems/***Shadow Govt did not want him to win. as for Mayor Pete, some people think he is CIA or the CIA’s choice – wouldn’t be at all surprised:

    4 Feb: Daily Mail: Pete Buttigieg declares VICTORY in Iowa amid Democratic vote fiasco saying ‘you shocked the nation’ despite there being NO official results – and Bernie Sanders publishes his results claiming HE is the winner
    by Geoff Earle, Deputy U.S. Political Editor In Des Moines and Nikki Schwab, Senior U.S. Political Report in Des Moines
    Pete Buttigieg, the former South Bend mayor, declared himself victor of the Iowa caucus just after 11pm Central time – midnight eastern – even though there are no official results…
    After Buttigieg’s daring move, Bernie Sanders’ campaign published what it said were internal results from 40 per cent of precincts, and they showed him in first place and Buttigieg in second …
    Biden’s campaign’s lawyers have written to say they do not trust the results and want all the underlying data and how it was handled released
    Results will be unknown until daytime Tuesday…
    Because of the complicated system it is possible for the person with the most delegates to not have the largest share of vote – so more than one campaign could declare itself winner
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7964051/Pete-Buttigieg-declares-VICTORY-Iowa-amid-Democratic-vote-fiasco-despite-NO-official-results.html

    a few moments of truth from HuffPo!

    4 Feb: HuffPo: This Is The Buzzy Democratic Firm That Botched The Iowa Caucuses
    ***Shadow, a Democratic digital firm, created the app that was supposed to deliver quicker caucus results.
    By Kevin Robillard, Amanda Terkel, Molly Redden
    The tech arm of ACRONYM, a Democratic digital nonprofit group that has rapidly expanded in recent years, was responsible for building the Iowa caucus app that contributed to delays in reporting Monday night’s results in the first vote in the party’s presidential race. Multiple Democratic sources, including one of the presidential campaigns, confirmed the app’s creator…

    Gerard Niemira, a veteran of Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, is the head of ***Shadow. In 2019, David Plouffe, one of the chief architects of President Barack Obama’s wins, joined the board of advisers for ACRONYM…

    The app was supposed to make reporting the results easier and quicker…
    As of 12:30 a.m. Tuesday morning, the party had not released any results from the caucuses…
    The Nevada Democratic Party, scheduled to hold the next Democratic caucus on Feb. 22, has also paid Shadow for website development…

    The group launched a super PAC, PACRONYM, this year to mount a major digital effort attacking President Donald Trump, and won the backing of David Plouffe, who led Barack Obama’s victorious 2008 presidential campaign…
    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/iowa-caucus-app-shadow_n_5e390191c5b687dacc722824?ri18n=true

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    • #
      pat

      4 Feb: WashingtonExaminer: Buttigieg campaign paid firm that developed voting app blamed for Iowa caucus delays
      by Spencer Neale
      Presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg’s campaign contributed money to the technological firm whose voting app that contributed to reporting delays in the Iowa caucuses.

      Federal Election Commission filings reveal that Buttigieg’s campaign gave tens of thousands of dollars to Shadow on July 23, 2019 for “software rights and subscriptions.”

      Shadow, a technology company that has an investor in Democratic digital nonprofit ACRONYM, was also paid $60,000 over two installments by the Iowa Democratic Party to build an app to help make caucus voting easier and faster for precinct volunteers. Filings also reveal that the Nevada Democratic Party paid Shadow $58,000 for “website development.”…

      Robby Mook, the campaign manager for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 team, denied involvement in the voting app after Twitter users suggested he was behind the app’s development. Mook, who reportedly did have a role in preparing a video to alert campaigns of misinformation or hacking, instructed people to contact Iowa Democrats for more information on the botched results. TWEET…
      https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/buttigieg-campaign-paid-firm-that-developed-voting-app-blamed-for-iowa-caucus-delays

      20

      • #
        pat

        4 Feb: The Intercept: Sanders Campaign’s Internal Caucus Numbers Show Them Winning Iowa, With Biden a Distant Fourth
        by Ryan Grim, Aída Chávez, Lee Fang, Akela Lacy
        The Sanders campaign reports it received 29.7 percent of the vote, closely followed by former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 24.6 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren came in at 21.2 percent, and former Vice President Joe Biden in fourth at 12.4 percent. Sanders put those numbers out shortly after Buttigieg finished his own, seemingly triumphant speech in Iowa. The party said it would release official results Tuesday…

        The Sanders campaign’s decision to release its internal results came after hours of frustration with the Iowa Democratic Party, whose app contributed to delays in the reporting of precinct results. The Iowa Democratic Party had kept the identity of the firm that created its app under wraps, claiming that divulging details would make the app vulnerable to hacking. As HuffPost first reported, the app was built by Shadow, a tech company owned by ACRONYM, a Democratic digital nonprofit that was launched in the wake of the 2016 election, pitching itself as a progressive answer to Republican dominance of the digital field. The company put out a statement early Tuesday morning saying it didn’t provide technology to the state or national party, or to any campaigns, despite its founder writing a tweet last month celebrating Shadow’s launch…

        Buttigieg’s presumed rise in the Iowa caucus — and Biden’s fall — follow weeks of volatility in polling. Last week, as Sanders surged, Buttigieg dropped in a number of polls, falling eight points since December in an Emerson’s Iowa poll, and losing two points in their national poll…
        https://theintercept.com/2020/02/04/sanders-campaign-release-caucus-numbers-iowa-buttigieg/

        40

        • #
          pat

          the Russians did it?

          4 Feb: The Hill: Campaigns fume about being left in the dark after Iowa results delayed
          By Max Greenwood; Reid Wilson and Al Weaver contributed
          Aides to some of the leading candidates said late Tuesday that they know little if anything about the cause of the delays, even after a briefing from Iowa Democratic Party officials.
          “They basically told us nothing,” one senior adviser to a leading candidate said of the call between Iowa Democratic Party leaders and the campaigns.
          Asked what they were hearing about issues related to the caucus results, another Democratic campaign source replied, “Literally nothing.”…

          A spokesperson for the party insisted that the issues were not related to any potential hack of the reporting system or technical issue with the app used to record results.
          “This is simply a reporting issue, the app did not go down and this is not a hack or an intrusion,” she said. “The underlying data and paper trail is sound and will simply take time to further report the results.”

          Still, the issues stirred unease among campaign officials, who expressed deepening concerns of a potentially larger issue with the caucus results.
          “I think that every single second that passes where we don’t get a final result, it’s concerning,” Roger Lau, Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s (D-Mass.) campaign manager, said, according to The Wall Street Journal’s Josh Jamerson…
          https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/481319-campaigns-say-theyre-left-in-the-dark-in-iowa-know-literally-nothing

          4 Feb: NY Post: Iowa caucus mess nothing compared to intra-Democratic chaos on the horizon
          By John Podhoretz, editor of Commentary magazine.
          The Iowa caucuses reveal not only a Democratic Party deliriously incompetent at handling a vote tally — this from the folks who have been screaming about voting fraud and irregularities for years — but at war with itself in a way that could lead to political disorder that will make the counting disaster look like a garden party…
          https://nypost.com/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-mess-nothing-compared-to-intra-democratic-chaos-on-the-horizon/

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  • #
    pat

    4 Feb: RenewEconomy: Adam Bandt elected new Greens leader, issues calls for Green New Deal
    by Michael Mazengarb
    Queensland senator Larissa Waters retains her position as one of the co-deputy leaders of the party and will be joined by Tasmanian senator Nick McKim who emerges as a successful, albeit unexpected, contender for the co-deputy leadership position.

    Upon winning the leadership ballot, Bandt immediately issued a call for a ‘green new deal‘ to be developed for Australia, mirroring the same proposal that has been pushed by progressive Democrats in the United States, including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
    “We are in the middle of a climate emergency and long running jobs and inequality crises. People are angry and anxious because the government has no plan for the big problems facing the country. This is why Australia needs a Green New Deal,” Bandt said on Twitter.

    “A Green New Deal means government leading the country in transforming our economy, creating new jobs and industries powered by clean energy and delivering universal services like dental into Medicare and genuinely free education. This is what I will be fighting for.”
    It immediately flags Bandt’s intention to re-focus the Greens agenda on climate action, renewable energy investment and the transition to a sustainable economy…READ ON
    https://reneweconomy.com.au/adam-bandt-elected-new-greens-leader-issues-calls-for-green-new-deal-19168/

    10

  • #
    Graeme Bird

    I’ll give an example to show my ongoing unease about all things lapse rate. Supposing some hobgoblin decided to double the amount of gasses in our atmosphere. Now in example one he tips the extra gas in slowly, and he does so at such a temperature that in the first month we perceive the average temperature at sea level to be a little bit cooler than usual. So we are starting from having to recover from a very mild cold spell, as perceived by us near sea level. In example one he misses out pouring in any extra CO2 so that the total CO2 in the atmosphere is the same as before. In example two he just doubles up on everything.

    Once we recover from the cold spell what happens next? You see I think I understand the lapse rate kind of okay. But not enough to answer this question very well. Its always bugged me. I think I know how things work well enough to poke holes in anyone trying to answer this question. But please don’t let this discourage you. And we really need to revisit the findings of Siddons et al regarding the moon. As I mentioned elsewhere

    “Here we have two planets, as it were, and one cannot be more of an open canvas and the other has all the bells and whistles that allow for the thing we call “the climate” We ought to be comparing the two all the time but for that we need to be experts on the giant carpark.”

    Until we get some sort of update on that Siddons et al study how can we be sure of our reasoning with regards to the question I have posed above? I could suggest that the average temperature would be about the same as now, probably with a faster lapse rate. Or I could suggest the temperature would be the same as now, but only at the altitude where the air pressure was where it was before. We could come up with twenty different proposals.

    But if we cannot get that tabula rasa next to us right, then anything we speculate about it going to be pretty hard to justify.

    12

    • #
      Peter C

      Thanks GB,

      The article about the moon is here;
      http://ilovemycarbondioxide.com/pdf/Greenhouse_Effect_on_the_Moon.pdf

      Schreuder et al conclude that heat storage acts like a greenhouse and raises the average temperature above the S-B calculated level.

      Zoe Phin has recently done some amazing number crunching on her computer, comparing the Northern Hemisphere with the Southern Hemisphere.
      The Southern Hemisphere gets more solar irradiation and has greater heat storage in the oceans. Hence the temperature variations are less extreme than in the Northern Hemisphere (as expected) , but paradoxically the average temperature in the SH is 1.3C lower than the NH. Zoe puts it down increased geothermal heat in the SH.

      Why is the lapse rate what it is? That also is a very difficult question.

      10

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        Yes I suggested that this might be because the land is a better conductor than the sea is. We see this in hurricanes. If a hurricane is over the sea it can be picking up energy. But once the entirety of the core is over land it tends to calm right down. I would say “short out.” Sometimes you have these island volcanoes at sea. Volcanoes seem to be particularly good conductors and it seems that hurricanes can abruptly short out upon reaching them. So anyway in my view the extra electricity is absorbed by the northern hemisphere and is converted to thermal energy and then will rise back up. Zoe is defining geothermal as any heat coming from below. Rather than anything specific about underwater or underground volcanoes. So what I am suggesting is not in contradiction to her observations and calculations.

        00

      • #
        Graeme Bird

        I will just have to assume that the 2010 Siddons study is basically right if there has been no update. But I suggest that this is coming from a secondary energy source. Storage is of course proven in this study. But I think the study implies an extra energy source as well. So unless we have an update on these findings I’m just going to have to go with that.

        00

  • #
    pat

    listen to first minute, with Bandt saying we’ve been warned for decades if we didn’t get off coal, we would be seeing fire seasons like this one:

    VIDEO: approx 3m: 4 Feb: Sky News: Adam Bandt is as ‘extreme and nasty’ as Di Natale
    Newly elected Greens leader Adam Bandt is just as “extreme and nasty” as his predecessor Richard Di Natale, according to Sky News host Chris Kenny.
    Mr Bandt declared a Green New Deal as his first priority after he was elected unopposed to replace Mr Di Natale.
    Mr Bandt also took a shot at the Morrison government, who he claimed had failed to get the “climate emergency under control”.
    Mr Kenny said the slogan adopted by Mr bandt is “not original” and is already being peddled around by the “far left” of the American Democrats.
    The Sky News host said the “climate wars” in Australia has now reached a “nutty” level.
    https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6129409871001

    20

    • #
      pat

      the excerpted quote is about a third of the way through:

      VIDEO: approx 6m: 4 Feb: Sky News: Bandt delcares ‘Green New Deal’ will be first priority as leader
      Speaking to reporters following his elevation to the Greens leadership, Mr Bandt said the government failed to get the “climate emergency under control”.
      “People are angry and anxious because it is clear that the government does not have the climate emergency under control,” he said. (AND HAS NO PLAN TO GET IT UNDER CONTROL).
      https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6129350783001

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    pat

    4 Feb: Venturebeat: Mysterious startup Shadow under scrutiny after Iowa caucus meltdown
    by Chris O’Brien
    https://venturebeat.com/2020/02/04/mysterious-startup-shadow-under-scrutiny-after-iowa-caucus-meltdown/

    4 Feb: DailyCaller: Clinton Campaign Veterans Run Firm That Built The Disastrous Iowa Caucus Phone App
    by Chuck Ross
    https://dailycaller.com/2020/02/04/iowa-caucus-app-hillary-clinton/

    4 Feb: LA Times: Tech firm started by Clinton campaign veterans is linked to Iowa caucus reporting debacle
    by Jeff Bercovici
    An app created by a tech firm run by veterans of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign is taking heat for the unprecedented delay in reporting Democratic caucus results from Iowa.
    The firm behind the app reportedly is Shadow, an affiliate of ACRONYM, a Democratic nonprofit founded in 2017 “to educate, inspire, register, and mobilize voters,” according to its website. Shadow started out as Groundbase, a tech developer co-founded by Gerard Niemira and Krista Davis, who worked for the tech team on Clinton’s campaign for the 2016 Democratic nomination…

    Designed to modernize a system that relied on precinct chairs phoning in their results, Shadow’s caucus app was seen as “a potential target for early election interference,” according to the Des Moines Register…
    https://www.latimes.com/business/technology/story/2020-02-04/clinton-campaign-vets-behind-2020-iowa-caucus-app-snafu

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    Graeme No.3

    Lately I have been rereading John Carswell’s book The South Sea Bubble – first published in 1960 but revised in the 1990’s. It contains the history of a financial cum political scandal, some would say the biggest until modern times, which makes interesting and thought provoking reading.
    The solution to a perceived problem pushed by a small group, followed by increasing acceptance. Politicians on the take or merely gullible and keen to agree with apparent public approval induced by noisy campaigning for action. Decisions taken secretly by an inner group. Followed by public enthusiasm. Hordes joining what looked like a great thing despite a few warning that the aims were impossible to achieve. At the height of the boom almost hysterical support, aimed at benefitting from people even more gullible.
    The collapse was swift and the political coverup was only partially successful (the Chancellor of the Exchequer, for one, wound up in the Tower of London)**.
    ALL the Directors were fined, up to 98% of their nett wealth in the case of the most blatant, but the financial bankers avoided being found guilty, as did a few fleet footed politicians. The whole scam left scars on the national psyche for a century. (The small remainder of the debt was only paid off this century).
    It seems to me that the Climate Change/Emergency scam has reached that hysterical stage, and that the collapse will be quick. The taxpayer will be left to pay the damages.

    **Lord Conigsby there for contempt of The Lords complained about having to endure such LOW Company.,

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    hillbilly33

    Outstanding links to common sense articles re major aspects of bushfires and their control in this article.

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/02/great-photo-from-volunteer-bushfire-expert-group-shows-the-stark-effects-of-controlled-burning.html

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      instant loss of argument by self-proclaiming something as common sense.

      Funny how ‘common sense” is invoked when the actual data and research supports the opposite

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        hillbilly33

        Your comment seems to indicate you never even bothered to check the links, especially this one.

        https://resilience-blog.com/2020/01/29/how-and-why-prescribed-burning-mitigates-bushfire-losses/

        Kindly do so, and then share with us any and all instances where you can supply “actual data and research” which “supports the opposite”, of either common sense or what is written.

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          AndyG55

          Gotta understand.. to gee aye, “common sense” is a complete anathema.

          He has shown that he has none, and I doubt he even as the slightest clue what it is.

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        Graeme#4

        What are you referencing for your “data and research” Gee? I’ve been reading a lot of bushfire research material lately, and it seems to fall into two groups – that produced by proper research with foresters or bushfire management folks working with the CSIRO, and the other group generated by university acedemics sitting in their unis. I know which group I believe.
        And it’s pretty hard to refute the obvious evidence in the supplied image.

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    hillbilly33

    Outstanding links to common sense articles re major aspects of bushfires and their control in this article.

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/02/great-photo-from-volunteer-bushfire-expert-group-shows-the-stark-effects-of-controlled-burning.html

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      Graeme#4

      Supports my belief that WA regularly burns 7-10% of its SW forests. But even with 8%, at a Eucalypt litter buildup of 8.3 tonnes/hectare, after 12 years, the litter buildup could be as much as 50 tonnes/hectare, which is a lot of fuel.
      If Victoria continue to burn only 1.3% a year, then their eucalypt fuel buildup could reach an incredible 100 tonnes/hectare.

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