Think this is pandemonium?
Changing by the hour:
- Israel stopped allowing Koreans and Japanese visitors to enter while planes were in the air.
- Turkey and Pakistan closed borders with Iran. (Some Iraq did yesterday). Afghanistan followed.
- Italy now has 134 cases. Two days ago it thought it had only 3. 26 people have been hospitalized.
- Iran has 43 official cases — up from 3 on Saturday.
- South Korea has 602 cases, including 6 deaths. Up from 31 cases on Feb 18th.
- Nine Korean nationals who visited Israel tested postive so now 200 people are in quarantine in Israel.
- Jordan has barred entry to the country to any citizens of China, Iran, and South Korea
This is the danger of too many open borders and not enough testing. If things are this far advanced in Italy and Iran and South Korea what’s happening under the veil in Africa and Indonesia, and so many other places?
Choices for the West include closing risky borders now, or later perhaps closing schools, events, football matches, movies, parties, and maybe elective surgery.
Italy –a lesson in how fast things move
Current tally: 2 dead, 134 infections and 26 are severe (that’s 19%, and who knows what the lag is, or if this will get worse?)
Football matches and the Venice carnival are being closed. There’s a ban on public events in 10 municipalities.
In Italy, strict quarantine restrictions are in force in two northern “hotspot” regions close to Milan and Venice.
Around 50,000 people cannot enter or leave several towns in Veneto and Lombardy for the next two weeks without special permission. Even outside the zone, many businesses and schools have suspended activities, and sporting events have been cancelled including several top-flight football matches.
Italy still can’t find patient zero. So they don’t know if this quarantine of two regions will be enough.
International quarantines are no fun, but domestic quarantines are worse
Look at what’s happening in Italy (let alone China):
Italian authorities have implemented draconian measures to try to halt the coronavirus outbreak in the north of the country, including imposing fines on anyone caught entering or leaving outbreak areas, as cases of the virus in the country rose to more than 130. Police are patrolling 11 towns – mostly in the Lombardy region, where the first locally transmitted case emerged – that have been in lockdown since Friday night.
The Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, said: “We have adopted a decree to protect the health of Italians, which is our priority and which ranks first in the list of constitutional values.” He urged people to “have faith in the political and scientific institutions, which are doing everything possible”.
Locals wearing facemasks were already lined up outside a supermarket in the town of Casalpusterlengo, a 10-minute drive from Codogno, on Sunday morning. Shoppers were made to wait, then allowed to enter in groups of 40 inside the store to stock up on provisions.
Three days ago the people living in these areas probably didn’t think they would suddenly be quarantined.
Should we build holiday homes or new hospitals?
As I said a week ago we have a choice. A two week mandatory quarantine is not the end of the world, and rocks and hard places are all around us.
We could start building emergency hospital ICU rooms like China has, or we could start building quarantine cabins which are infinitely cheaper and ask all entrants from countries with uncontrolled cases of Covid 19* (or SARS CoV 2, whatever it is called) to go through a two week quarantine. This will limit traffic drastically, affecting weddings, conferences, holidays and all kinds of business. It will be costly and inconvenient, but it will possibly save people and quite a lot of money. (ICU care is $5000 a day). Separated families can still be reunited after the two week delay. Am I mad, stopping all flights to nations at risk seems like the cheap conservative option?
Hope: Singapore infections are only growing slowly — but 5% need critical care
Singapore did exhaustive thorough tracking and testing with isolation and have slowed the exponential curve significantly. Perhaps it’s possible to avoid closing borders, but it is a risky game, and Singapore hasn’t defeated it yet, though this curve is about as good as we might have hoped for last week.
Source: Ministry of Health, Singapore. | See also CNA
The problem with this reactive approach is that if it doesn’t work, we risk running out of hospital beds, as well as domestic quarantines.
Consider the ICU “critical” rate — there have been no deaths in Singapore so far, but fully 30% have been hospitalized, and 5% are critical.
Singapore has about 12,000 hospital beds (of all sorts). With a ten day doubling rate all the hospital beds will be taken in about nine weeks and that’s just with coronavirus patients. It’s not clear how many of those beds are ICU. But it is clear that we need to put our thinking caps on.
The range progressing to severe after an 8 day lag now ranges from 0 – 25%.
Worldometer statistics with calculations of the proportion who need severe hospitalized care, with and without an 8 day lag.
The China figures are underestimates because it’s China.
| 23-02-20 | |||||||||
| Country, | Total Cases | New | Total | New | Total | Serious, | % “severe” | Cases 8 days ago | % severe aftereight day lag |
| Other | Cases | Deaths | Deaths | Recovered | Critical | ||||
| China | 76,940 | 652 | 2,443 | 98 | 23,163 | 11,477 | 15% | 64000 | 18% |
| Diamond Princess | 691 | 57 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 36 | 5% | ||
| S. Korea | 602 | 166 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 7 | 1% | 28 | 25% |
| Japan | 146 | 12 | 1 | 23 | 7 | 5% | |||
| Italy | 134 | 55 | 2 | 2 | 26 | 19% | 3 | 867% | |
| Singapore | 89 | 51 | 5 | 6% | 58 | 9% | |||
| Hong Kong | 74 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 6 | 8% | 53 | 11% | |
| Iran | 43 | 14 | 8 | 2 | |||||
| Thailand | 35 | 21 | 2 | 6% | 33 | 6% | |||
| USA | 35 | 6 | 15 | 0% | |||||
| Taiwan | 28 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4% | 18 | 6% | |
| Australia | 22 | 1 | 11 | 15 | 0% | ||||
| Malaysia | 22 | 18 | 0% | 19 | 0% | ||||
| Germany | 16 | 14 | 16 | 0% | |||||
| Vietnam | 16 | 15 | 16 | 0% | |||||
| U.A.E. | 13 | 3 | 2 | 15% | 8 | 25% | |||
| France | 12 | 1 | 10 | 0% | 11 | 0% | |||
| Macao | 10 | 6 | 10 | 0% | |||||
| Canada | 9 | 3 | 0% | 7 | 0% | ||||
| U.K. | 9 | 8 | 0% | 9 | 0% | ||||
| Philippines | 3 | 1 | 2 | ||||||
| India | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0% | |||||
| Russia | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0% | |||||
| Spain | 2 | 2 | |||||||
| Belgium | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Cambodia | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Egypt | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Finland | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Israel | 1 | 0% | |||||||
| Lebanon | 1 | 0% | |||||||
| Nepal | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Sri Lanka | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Sweden | 1 | ||||||||
| Iraq | 1 | ||||||||
| Total outside China | 2016 | 311 | 25 | 255 | 92 | ||||
| % | 3% | 36% | 1% |
EDIT!: Sums in last row of the table were obviously incorrect for totals outside China.
It is not likely that this virus can be contained completely. Over time it is likely to become just as much a feature of our global environment as colds and normal influenza.
The purpose of attempts at containment is to try and slow the rate of spread so that national health services are not so overwhelmed that critical cases cannot be adequately treated. With the vast numbers of inhabitants in Wuhan that seems to be what happened and it may be that heavy handed rounding up of weakly suspected cases and placing them with confirmed cases in large units is also adding to the problem by way of cross infection.
Steps are being taken in most nations to ramp up the efficiency of identifying and caring for the critical cases and as time passes that ability is improving.
The death rate still looks like around 2% comprised mostly of the elderly with underlying health problems. The younger victims appear to be mostly medical workers exposed to a heavy, repeated viral burden.
At some point, after a month or so, the number of people with immunity increases and the rate of spread slows down naturally which helps with the care of the critical cases.
It no longer looks apocalyptic and economic activity should resume after a couple of months as the rate of new infections eases off in each successive national hot spot.
It is still a problem for members of the critical illness section who cannot get adequate medical support but they are the ones that governments are reorganising their health services to assist.
The increasing proportion of recovered cases makes it look unlikely that this is an engineered virus created to have a high mortality rate. That does not exclude the possibility of an accidental release from a research facility.
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I think you are dead wrong on most points.
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Explain HOW, Golfsailor?
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1. This virus can be contained but only by closing borders asap and following the Singapore style action. Keep borders open will only be possible if we do mass testing (and so do other countries), but we don’t. That may change in a few months.
2. If it’s endemic next year, but we have a vaccine or anti-viral or it has mutated to a less deadly form — will it look wise to have shielded the public from the first season or will it look like an over-reaction?
3. Early study of first 507 patients in China shows 8% fatality rate. There are lots of reasons it “might” be lower. But until we know for sure, is it a risk worth taking? And if it is a 2% fatality figure population wide – that still may mean a 5 – 10% death rate in older folk. 60+. Why is that OK?
4. The give-up-because-it-will-go-endemic idea is a red-herring. In the Spanish Flu remember American Samoa still got the flu but no lives were lost. In Western Samoa 24% of the population died in the early round.
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1. This virus will not be contained at all without draconian measures.
2. So far, nothing points to this going to natural as cold or flu.
3. Purpose of containment is to save people, not to slow the spread.
4. People in Wuhan is locked up in their gated communities as soon as ONE person in that community is infected. They can not go out.
5. Handling of weakly suspected cases is pure speculation.
6. Mortality is not around 2%. Closed cases between 7.43 (Outside China and raising) and 9.57% (Totally and accepting numbers from China), so far.
7. Being young will not save you even if your chances is better. May depend on individual. Whistle blower was in his 30ies !
8. There is no Immunity shown so far. On the contrary, now there is discussion of second, third and fourth round infections and faster death because of tissue damage from previous rounds.
9. It sure look apocalyptic
10. There is no increasing proportion of recovered cases. Even so, if there was this has nothing to do if this is a manufactured virus or not.
To me it look like you are working on someones behalf to try to calm people down.
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1 Agreed but at some point those measures could be worse than the disease.
2 It will be in the background like colds and flu but it does appear to have greater severity at present.
3 Slowing the spread makes it easier to save people
4 There has also been removal of suspected victims from the streets and placement in large containment units. Both approaches encourage cross infection.
5 See 4.
6 The number of mild cases not needing treatment appears likely to bring those averages down.
7 It does depend on individual and I agree that youth improves chances.
8 That is being discussed but I’m not currently aware of a significant number of specific instances. The damage was said to be caused by the treatment rather than the virus.
9 Define apocalyptic. I see it as the end of civilisation but that seems a bit of a stretch at this stage. 80% mild cases is borne out by UK and other western recoveries so far.
10 The numbers recovered do seem to be outstripping further deaths. A manufactured, weaponised virus would be expected to be worse than the outcomes observed thus far.
To me it looks like you are working on someone’s behalf to try to wind people up. We are probably both wrong about the other’s motivation.
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Stephen please tell us where you live.
Each country will need to make it’s decisions
Based on it’s own unique circumstances.
You are issuing general ‘advice’..
FOR WHOM /
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It is not ‘advice’.
It is a personal interpretation of the available information.
Everyone still has to make their own decisions based on local circumstances, as you say.
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I live in Sweden, currently on visit in the US.
00
1. I don’t think so. Draconian measures will have a short time, maybe up to half year. But they who survive will have a better life after. Compare to a decease like the plague staying for hundreds of years until rooted out.
2. I don’t think this virus can stay in the background with high mortality and r0 5-8. (Wild guess but that discussion is ongoing, may be less may be higher).
3. Agreed, but aim should be to STOP the spread and to STOP the virus. Chinese people now say the Chinese government will be better at stopping this virus than any western government. Let’s hope they are wrong.
4. and 5. We do not know if they mix suspected and confirmed cases. That is speculation so far. (Can’t be that stupid, can they ?). Large comtainment units is never right. Especially with a virulent virus. But that is what they are doing in the communities. They close and lock the gates sp people can not go out.
6. Number of mild cases will only bring averages down IF and only IF the numbers Change and there is more mild cases and less severe ones. This do not seem to be the way thing is moving outside China. But takes some time to find out. See table below.
7. Agree.
8. Let’s wait for the research and not speculate. But so far we see no immunity, so don’t count on it.
9. Yes definition is important. Until we know figures for sure is more speculation at this time. Though with discussion of r0 at 3-9 and obvious mortality so far at 5-10% this will affect heavily on our civilization until either there is a working vaccine or cure. Life as we know it until now will have to change abruptly. Apocalyptic, well you judge !
10. Numbers of recovered cases of course outstripping deaths by 90% or more. But numbers is shrinking outside China, see table below. Numbers from China is hard to take at face value. Probably had to be authorized first.
Now a Table if that don’t turn out as I want I will post numbers below again.
Cases outside China
New Cases Recovered Severe Severe % Recovered Death Rate of Resolved cases
Total Rate Recovered + Death
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er, why on earth would it be better if thy could go out if the transmission rate is so high? (/rhetorical)
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Of course not as long as you provide foods and medical service.
00
Outside China
Recovered Rate Deaths
cases change Serious Recovered Mortality
[Edited to try to make the numbers make sense, Golfsailor, no idea if labels are correct. can you give us a reference? – jo]
01
cases change Recovered Severe Rate% Recov.Rate Deaths Mortality%
[ Device your using is making comment hard to follow ]AD
[Maybe someone will be able to unravel the information]ED
00
Golfsailor pretty well sims t up Stephen and I doubt we want this beastie as a fact of life. A similar pandemic, the Spanish flu spread like wildfire but then became extinct as those infected died or developed immunity. The world population then was 1.8 billion and international travel was slow, but it still infected a third of the worlds population and killed up to 50 million. Where no cure exists the purpose of quarantine is to isolate the population infected and let the disease burn out. The trouble is they have now confirmed that some recovered patients still carry traces of the virus and remain infectious. It is far too early to say whether the recovered have developed long term immunity. This particular virus just isn’t playing nice and we lost the opportunity to contain it at the beginning because of Chinese government games and perplexingly, the WHO advice not to restrict travel.
Unfortunately globalisation has generated a fragile, international economic structure, particularly for the West where nations have abandoned a self sufficiency, exported much of their industry and are dependent on global supply chains. The effect of expanded quarantines, particularly where China, SE Asia and the Middle East are concerned are indeed potentially apocalyptic and Australia is more vulnerable than most. Our remnant manufacturing is based on assembly of imported parts and we import all the things we used to make. We refuse to emulate the US and exploit our oil shale deposits to gain self sufficiency in petroleum products. Instead we dismantle our refineries, import refined products via refineries in SE Asia and cannot even be bothered meeting our international commitment to maintain 90 day reserves.
160
Brian,
I agree with your points but I think Golfsailor was suggesting it would stay in the foreground rather than dying out like the Spanish flu. In saying that he misunderstood my use of the term ‘background’ for colds and flu.
I just meant ‘ever present’ due to mutation ability. Spanish flu was just a flu variant which was more virulent than most but flu is ever present.
Mutations are random with a 50% probability of becoming more virulent or less virulent. If it becomes more virulent it has less chance of transmission because the host dies sooner and less transmissions can occur so it eventually fades away. Over time the trend is to less virulence but more infectiousness which is where we are currently with colds and flu.
As for the issue of developing immunity or not and other aggravating factors I prefer not to rely on Chinese sources because there are so many environmental and other differences between their situation and ours. I also note that the Thai source is presenting tentative concerns as facts.
We have to wait and see what happens here in the West. 8 of the UK’s first 9 cases walked away with minimal medical intervention and the 9th is Chinese. Not sure how he or she is now.
70
Some cutting edge flu science.
“Keynote: Defective Virus Genomes in Host-Virus Interactions – Elodie Ghedin – RECOMB/RSG 2019
19 views
•Feb 15, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOUQ-FTqMjg
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All we need is food, shelter, clothing, potable water and I’ll add electricity to that, as it’s become so essential to modern life. All the rest is a want, not a need. Australia is better placed than most countries to meet those needs, except for electricity, which is now our national Achilles-Heal.
150
Talk about a slow moving train about to wreak.
Right now the nearest sick patient is about 400 miles away from me. Is this enough space?
100
They do not need to be a patient to be a carrier. The only way of being certain of having a safe distance of 400 miles is if you were standing on the South Pole and there were no poleward expeditions at the time.
31
Thanks Rick Will I feel much better now.
00
i don’t see your point.. it may be a disaster or not… but so what?
we have to face it.
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“The Eyes of Darkness,” 1996 edition. (Twitter photo)
Older versions of the book refer to the disease as “Gorki-400.” (Twitter photo)
China’s coronavirus predicted in 1981 US novel
American author predicts coronavirus-like outbreak and names disease ‘Wuhan-400’
143670
By Ching-Tse Cheng, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2020/02/13 15:50
https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2020/02/13/1581574167-5e44e81738ff9.jpg
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As the Wuhan virus claims new victims around the world, Twitter users have pointed out that in the 1981 novel, “The Eyes of the Darkness,” there is a disease called “Wuhan-400.”
The American author, Dean Koontz’s suspense thrillers have often appeared on The New York Times Best Seller list. In chapter 39 of his book, Koontz writes about a virus developed in military labs near the city of Wuhan by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as a biological weapon, reported Liberty Times.
The scientist leading the Wuhan-400 research is called Li Chen (??), who defects to the U.S. with information about China’s most dangerous chemical weapons. Wuhan-400 affects people rather than animals and cannot survive outside the human body or in environments colder than 30 degrees Celsius.
The similarities between the made-up virus and the Wuhan virus has got Twitter users struggling to comprehend the improbable coincidence. One big difference: Wuhan-400 has a 100 percent kill-rate, while the Wuhan virus does not.
Some people were skeptical about Koontz’s prediction 39 years ago, however, pointing out that earlier editions of the book refer to the virus as Gorki-400, a production of the Soviet Union. In response, several netizens have posted pictures of the book’s newer editions to explain the name of the virus was indeed altered, possibly due to the end of the Cold War in 1991, reported SET News.
https://image.taiwannews.com.tw/photos/2020/02/13/1581574161-5e44e8110ca70.jpg
https://image.taiwannews.com.tw/photos/2020/02/13/1581574148-5e44e80461f90.jpg
Dean Koontz’s Wuhan-400 appears to have similarities with the Wuhan virus. (Twitter photo)
https://image.taiwannews.com.tw/photos/2020/02/13/1581574176-5e44e82035850.jpg
“The Eyes of Darkness,” 1996 edition. (Twitter photo)
Older versions of the book refer to the disease as “Gorki-400.” (Twitter photo)
.
.
How are viruses discovered and identified in the first place?
The earthshaking Etienne De Harven interview by Celia Farber
by Jon Rappoport
February 18, 2020
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/18/how-are-viruses-discovered-and-identified-in-the-first-place/
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Great interview! I read it when it was first published and was thinking of posting it here so was very pleased to see you beat me to it.
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A great example of how you can find evidence to support the prediction of any event that happens at any moment in time.
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Kind of like the Simpsons series having an uncanny ability to “predict” things…..
The irony is that in a court of law, anecdotal information is evidence, but not in science it seems.
50
Kind of like the green-left’s uncanny ability to “predict” things….. Like:
Snow will soon be a thing of the past;
There will be no summer sea ice at the North Pole by 2012;
Ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations;
There would be between 50 million and 200 million environmental migrants by 2010;
Carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.
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The coronavirus will have a ‘significant’ impact on our economy: Australian treasurer
https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/watch/the-coronavirus-will-have-a-significant-impact-on-our-economy-australian-treasurer/vi-BB10i3cg
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Id like to see that split between all countries for number of infected, death rate and severity over time. No one wants to confront the possibility some countries are hit harder than others in terms of percentage of deaths and its implications.
I also think in some cases the preemptive reaction by some countries and subsequent damage to economies etc could be worse than the actual disease impact on the population.
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My thoughts too.
10
“Ignorance is the parent of fear.”
— Herman Melville
“The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.”
— Franklin D. Roosevelt
20
Market’s down 2 per cent today.
20
Flying coronavirus class: Photos of American Diamond Princess passengers’ flight from hell
“These exclusive photos show the surreal, polyethylene-wrapped aerial hell suffered by 329 American passengers of the Diamond Princess cruise ship as they were flown back to the US this week — after two weeks quarantined in their cabins off the coast of Yokohama, Japan.
Their flight attendants looked like hazmat removal workers — fully suited from head to toe in sterile latex and plastic.
Since the two planes landed — one in Lackland, the other in Travis Air Force base in California — four additional passengers on the planes have tested positive, according to Johns Hopkins University, which has been documenting the coronavirus’s spread.”
https://nypost.com/2020/02/22/flying-coronavirus-class-photos-of-americans-flight-from-hell/
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Surely that is Good Travis !
Or are you in favor of spreading this disease ?
20
Hi Bill.
Posted link for anyone interested.
I have been ambivalent towards the virus, but, it seems we will have two levels of citizens.
Here is a unique example:
US soldiers fighting to keep virus from base at ground zero of South Korean crisis
https://www.stripes.com/news/us-soldiers-fighting-to-keep-virus-from-base-at-ground-zero-of-south-korean-crisis-1.619953#.XlKpcZAyuEE.twitter
Good luck to them. I fear it is a battle they can’t win.
What will President Trump do with soldiers that can’t come home?
Egad.
30
Define “Home”.
20
This is interesting:
“Results: We found that our posterior estimates of basic reproduction number (R) in Wuhan City, China in 2019-2020 is calculated to be as high as 7.05 (95%CrI: 6.11-8.18) and the enhanced public health intervention after January 23rd in 2020 has declined R to 3.24 (95%CrI: 3.16-3.32), with the total number of infections (i.e. cumulative infections) estimated at 983006 (95%CrI: 759475-1296258) in Wuhan City, raising the proportion of infected individuals to 9.8% (95%CrI: 7.6-13.0%). We also found that most recent crude infection fatality ratio (IFR) and time-delay adjusted IFR is estimated to be 0.07% (95% CrI: 0.05%-0.09%) and 0.23% (95%CrI: 0.17-0.30%), which is several orders of magnitude smaller than the crude CFR at 4.06%”
from here:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.12.20022434v1
which indicates high infectivity but relatively low fatality.
In general, viruses trade off infectiousness against virulence because greater virulence reduces opportunities for transmission.
If the fatality rate is as low as they say then the preferred course could be to let the infection run its course and adopt mitigation measures rather than closing down the global social and economic system. Still a lot more than basic influenza but not apocalyptic.
I’d hate to be responsible for decision making in this scenario.
More data from western victims should clarify the ratios before long.
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We would be extremely foolish to base any policy conclusions on the ‘official’ Chinese figures !
But observing the Chinese government response to the disease gives real indications about it’s severity.
There is something fundamentally wrong with this logic :
Ohhhh it’s All Good, No problem !
While simultaneously imposing a lock down on roughly 120 million people in China
100
They don’t use the ‘official’ figures. A number of non Chinese scientists around the world have made estimates based on knowledge of the virus, such as it is.
There are indeed a couple of aspects that could make things much worse but at present they are speculations only and not currently borne out by events outside China.
We have to await developments with infected people in western societies.
If those aggravating factors do prove to be present then there is nothing we can do about it anyway.
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“We have to await developments with infected people in western societies.”
OR we make sensible decisions today based on what we already know and change them as the info comes in.
We can wait til it’s too late then lose the chance to make a decision. That is an option that bureaucrats are good at.
Do the numbers on the ICU beds. At the moment, if numbers in Singapore are a guide, then once Australia has 40,000 infections we have to start turning people away from the ICU who need it. Really that starts a lot earlier given that current ICU occupancy is more than 0%. If we let this run its course — a chosen outcome at this point, what are the odds in Australia (and I’m assuming relative proportions are similar in the US) that we can keep the infection below 1 in 600 in the total population?
Death rates will be higher if we run out of ICU’s.
Even if the death rate is 0.07 that’s still seven fold worse than our normal flu season.
Who feels like cancelling all elective surgery (car accidents too etc 😉 ) and all football, church, parties, games, social gatherings and enduring lock downs in homes so we can keep that rate below 1/600 of the pop. (And it probably needs to be below 1/2000, or maybe 1/10,000 to be manageable with our current quality of life).
Calculate the cost of mandatory 2 week international quarantine versus police enforced lock downs of suburbs?
If infections run wild here but not in the US or UK (and visa versa) then any country with rampant infections will face closed borders and loss of tourism anyhow. All the fun of international quarantine PLUS domestic quarantine too!
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South Korea reported its second death on Saturday from the virus. The country’s national infection toll now stands at 556.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in on Sunday said the country would raise its alert level to the “highest” in the face of the spike in infections. The national toll is now the second-highest outside of China, apart from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan.
ROME: An elderly cancer patient became the third person known to be infected with the coronavirus to die in Italy, health officials said on Sunday (Feb 23), as the number of people contracting the virus continued to mount.
The death of the woman in a hospital in the small city of Crema in Lombardy, the centre of Italy’s coronavirus scare, followed that of a 77-year-old woman on Saturday and a 78-year-old man on Friday, the first victim of coronavirus in Europe.
SINGAPORE: No new COVID-19 cases were reported in Singapore as of noon on Sunday (Feb 23), the Ministry of Health (MOH) said in a daily update, leaving the total number of cases in the country at 89.
This is the first time no new cases have been reported in Singapore since Feb 3.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-coronavirus-singapore-moh-update-new-cases-discharged-12462176
Yet perspective is in order. The CDC estimated that up to 42.9 million people got sick during the 2018-2019 flu season in the U.S. No less than 647,000 people were hospitalised. And 61,200 died.
00
Such as?
Are you prepared to take the chance?
The citizens of Australia expect their government to take all necessary action. That’s why there’s been no backlash against Prime Minister Morrison – notwithstanding their ABC’s attempts to find a point of attack.
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Well said, however Stephen this virus not only “trade off infectiousness against virulence because greater virulence reduces opportunities for transmission.” but also it has the ability to jump across the species gap.
This will be the big question later as to which animal(s) in any country will become the virus safe harbor for later (mutated) infections. Pigs? dogs? birds? rats, cats? …
31
Given your conditions how can you justify “Well said”?
01
That we don’t know. Maybe not jumping at all !
11
Interesting numbers. With draconian measures they succesfully took R0 from 7 to 3 within three weeks ? Then claim result shows in less than 3 weeks when starting measures after Jan 7 and almost just within incubation period. No, No, No. This report is probably made to suit the narrative making CCP a look much better than western governments fighting this virus and no one within china will ever ask or ‘know’ about the true origin. They also say there is about 980.000 infected, that a lot more than any official figure. No I rather believe my wife’s friend working as a nurse in Wuhan ! She told us on Jan 24th there was 40 deaths at her hospital alone, the same day the official numbers released was 41 casualties all over China. That was when I got interested. There is more than 30 hospitals in Wuhan. Do the math !
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Good News ?
“China National Center for Biotechnology Development deputy head Dr Sun Yanrong said that chloroquine, an anti-malarial medication, was selected after several screening rounds of thousands of existing drugs.
The drug is undergoing clinical trials in more than ten hospitals in Beijing, Guangdong province, and Hunan province.
Dr Su said that chloroquine phosphate, which has been used for more than 70 years, was selected from based on earlier studies. (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41422-020-0282-0)
Considering that it is already an approved drug, it can easily be approved for repurposing to treat the coronavirus if further research trials show its efficacy without any side effects.
Coronavirus infected patients treated with chloroquine demonstrated a better drop in fever, improvement of lung CT images, and required a shorter time to recover compared to parallel groups.
The percentage of patients with negative viral nucleic acid tests after treatment was also higher with the anti-malarial drug.
Chloroquine has so far showed no obvious serious adverse reactions in the more than 100 participants in the trials.
Data from the drug’s studies showed ‘certain curative effect’ with ‘fairly good efficacy’.?
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/latest-on-coronavirus-drug-research-chloroquine-another-potential-drug-candidate
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Ed
1 I think that is now irrelevant to the discussion.
This is a global pandemic.
far better to focus on what we need to know to prevent it spreading even more widely.
2 And I think you are spreading gross misinformation.
No country would develop a biological weapon which also hit’s it’s own people.
The theory that ethnic ‘Europeans’ are immune to Corona virus is disproved completely by the data from Iran & Italy.
We are just as vulnerable.
3 So for me the question is :
‘Who are you spreading this misinformation for ?”
61
Bill in OZ
The 3 part comment appears to be a response to “Ed” meaning maybe the author of the post.
Or not. What am I missing. At my writing you have 3 green up thumbs. However, I don’t know about what.
I see a glass of wine in my immediate future.
Cheers.
70
John
The numbering system has gone pear-shaped. Bill’s comment could well refer to something neither you nor I can see. 🙂
30
Make that 2 glasses of wine!
40
Looks like Jo removed Ed’s post. I saw it by email and it asserted that the virus was created by the West and placed in Wuhan as a deliberate plot by the West.
30
Thanks for posting Stephen. I’ve been wondering what would have prompted Bill’s comment.
20
The 4 Corners program on the virus is just underway. Wonder what we’ll learn . . . . .
10
Pretty good coverage… bring out your dead.
10
At 73 years of age and with respitory problems I could be one of them.
30
The comment from Ed has been removed John
00
I question the whether it is a pandemic. Though widely spread, if its mortality is much higher in just some countries and not others then its not truly pandemic.
The MSM cranks the hysteria up…all it does is frighten people.
00
No Steve: I actually think that the MSM is underplaying this one. Quite unusual.
40
How did this comment end up down here.
30
Looks like a few are going on the unsorted pile since #33
10
It is probably a disturbance in the matrix.
Unless you are too old to get the reference.
00
What news of the person who tested positive after the 14 day quarantine period ended? Where was the quarantine location and where was the person when it was discovered they were infected?
60
What happened about those four Australian returnees from the Japanese cruise ship who went missing at one stage in transit in Australia before they were all taken to the NT?
Was it a miscounting …or what?
10
Definitely tracking the Worlds reactions to Black Plague way back in the 1300’s. Estimates of 70 million souls were lost to it’s ravages.
20
Reading the MSM, reports seem to be a bit breathless & hysterical, and quite frankly a bit irresponsible…..
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-is-going-global-and-containment-is-no-longer-an-option/news-story/6b52cf189ba52887bfc0b2a2862fcc49
“Now Australian medicos are sounding the alarm: we must prepare for this pandemic to strike home, Soon.
“There’s been a profound shift in the Covid-19 epidemic.
“Health officials are being taken by surprise. New cases of the virus are appearing seemingly everywhere. And not all of them can be traced back to travellers.
“That means it’s already loose. Deep inside communities, such as Italy and Japan.
“That means it’s entering a new phase.
How is this level of what appears to be hype, helpful or useful?
You would think the sky is falling……..we need to go dig a bunker and go hide….
20
It’s mostly hype but don’t forget they could be right (by accident). Only time will demonstrate to us whether the epidemic in China becomes a pandemic possibly leading to millions of deaths world-wide, or it fizzles out. At the moment it’s .mostly speculation mixed with a lot of hype and/or hope.
20
“Disease X”….its like cheesy sci fi….
Cranking up the fear and hype….?
https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/pandemic-fits-the-disease-x-category-world-health-organisations-coronavirus-warning/news-story/9a6d375e4a1c18b518883058bc1c8a93
“Pandemic fits the Disease X category’: World Health Organisation’s coronavirus warning
“The new coronavirus, also called Covid-19, is rapidly coming to fit that very profile.
“‘FIRST PANDEMIC THAT FITS DISEASE X’
“The deadly virus, which started life in central China, has now infected almost 80,000 people around the world and killed over 2400.
“The virus has spread well beyond China’s tightly-restricted borders, infecting hundreds in South Korea and Japan, more than 150 in Italy, and several more across the globe.
“Unlike SARS, the coronavirus replicates at high concentrations in the nose and throat, and appears capable of spreading to those who show zero or mild symptoms.
“Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, and a member of the WHO’s emergency committee, said this virus was becoming the first of its kind to fit the “Disease X” category.
““Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category,” she wrote in the journal Cell.
00
Yes, we should all calm down because the WHO, whose head certainly isn’t enthralled to China, says this isn’t a pandemic:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/world-health-organization-says-covid-19-is-not-a-pandemic-2020-02-24-10911934
Yeah, and Indonesia has no cases yet.
10
From https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
“The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.””
Lipsitch predicts 40% to 70% of the world’s population will be infected within 12 months and has asserting similar things in public since mid-February.
For what it is worth I knew Marc quite well a couple of decades back and this quotation captures his nature perfectly. He and I did our D.Phil’s at the same time and published a paper on the evolution of virulence together, and this quote brought back the sort of conversations I had with him. He is careful in his thought, methodical and quite sober, an expert of the highest order and intellectually generous. So when he says there is going to be a pandemic I take it very seriously.
From my own limited understanding of epidemiology, the moment this virus appeared on my radar in January everything about it has scared the **** out of me. Relatively high fatality rates (10 to 20+ times higher than the flu), together with asymptomatic spreading via aerosol, droplets and probably through faecal matter as well…and it started in China.
But its not the disease that worries me so much as the supply chain issues and the financial and commercial chaos that will follow should this pick up steam. The world is loaded up with debt like never before and this could be just the sort of thing to bring about the next big financial crisis and I don’t think we will get out of that mess as “easily” as we did in 2008/9. Way too many businesses and homes are teetering on the edge, so a couple of months of no income and the banks will come calling…and then dropping asset prices will stuff the banks.
10
The Australian Government needs to do whatever Indonesia is doing … clearly their system is successful.
103
Hmmm one person doesn’t get sarcasm or is from Indonesia?
81
They should be automatically screening anyone entering Australia from Indonesia ..but they won’t will they?
If they don’t do that… maybe ..depending on the real situation in Indonesia…everything else is useless.
60
How effective is “screening”? Does that just mean a temperature scan?
Like banning nail scissors to stop terrorists — it will prevent some, but how many? People will just take panadol before flying. Asymptomatic cases will get straight through.
150
I agree it wouldn’t be effective enough…but it’s impossible to imagine an Australian government closing the border with Indonesia for anyone but the people-smugglers and asylum seekers…so short of a universal lock-down of Australia …which must feature somewhere in their plan…I guess we’ve just got to wing it.
Indonesia put itself in a special category when it declared it had no cases…knowing no Australian politicians or health authorities would be game to ask if they were testing people presenting with cold symptoms….although our health authorities could find a way to ask without offending…by assuming they actually are testing and ask what their regime is or some other generic question.
If they have got cases I suppose it will soon become known anyway.
If Indonesia has cases and Indonesians are entering Australia at will..and Australians are going back and forth to Bali…it will emerge…hopefully before all the other precautions are for nothing.
00
Or it could be that something in Indonesia is protecting people from this virus.
The tropical climate I suggest.
21
I doubt it, given there have been plenty of cases in SE Asia.
40
They just haven’t recognised it yet.
00
Bd- it seems that sarcasm requires a sarc tag else it be deemed literal.
40
Only to people too dim to understand humour. Sarc tags are for the mentally challenged … or is minimally exceptional? Whatever the PC term is supposed to be these days.
32
I agree
11
careful you are demonstrating “Dim-ism”……And Gee Aye is also a Dimist apparently
00
That only affects those who have gone through the abysmal, dumbed-down, Australian education system.
Those who can’t think.
More money – less education.
60
Austria has banned train travel between Italy and Austria.
Does anyone agree with me that confining people on diamond princess was an incredibly stupid thing to do and was bound to make that vessel a floating disaster area! Surely passengers should have been brought ashore and not confined to cabins with regular contact with fellow passengers and crew enabling the virus to circulate by whatever means it does propagate
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I agree.
The recirculating air had to be infecting people no matter how stringent their confinement.
81
I live in Melbourne and I would have been very concerned if the crew and passengers, totalling around 4,000, were permitted to disembark in Melbourne. Even any port in Australia. For that matter, any port in the world that did not have the facilities to quarantine the 4000 soles for 2 weeks or so.
I expect any port or border authority has the right to refuse entry of individuals posing a threat to the health of the general population.
I think Japan did well in accepting the ship and providing care for those infected. It would have been smart for the ship owners to expeditiously arrange quarantine for all the passengers and crew on shore as US and Australia has done for their citizens. There is no doubt ships are disease incubators.
50
Well, on the bright side, most Australian schools now have 6′ spiked fences around them paid for by the federal govt.
Will they become quarantine/holding centres?
I notice Bill Gates has “warned” of a coming pandemic….i wonder how he could know?
Some of this makes my skin crawl….
21
Scientists have been serious about pandemics since H5N1 reared its head. Not that it wasn’t an issue before but it wasn’t so scary. Bill Gates recognised back in the noughties that something like the 1918 flu or worse would have a massive impact. George W Bush was equally concerned. When H5N1 made no further moves and even H7N9 didn’t go ummm… viral, interest waned.
20
Was a good test tube though.
20
I read this at Andrew Bolt’s blog and thought it was worth posting here …
I want to be a normal teenager
51 minutes ago
An email from a Hong Konger to someone I know.
“I want to share some observations (they are just my observations) of the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the economy here (and China). I believe its greatly understated and we could be in for a major adjustment to global growth/markets.
1. The HK sky is always polluted, similar to LA or worse. The sky has been crystal clear like Montana skies since Chinese New Year. There is no Manufacturing going on in China (or greatly reduced).
2. I order a dozen ties online, later to find they are made in China. I just received a refund saying Corona Virus has impacted our business, here is your money back. It was “here is your money back”, not “your order will be delayed 2-4 weeks.”
3. Estimated visitors to HK is 30,000 last month compared to 400,000 a year ago.
4. Everyone is staying home; restaurants are empty and going out of business.
5. Hotels are below 10% occupancy in HK. We are on the edge of the true outbreak.
I believe the virus is having a big impact in China that will spill over into the Global economy. anyways, it is very interesting time.
All the best”
170
And the Australian dollar follows the same downward trajectory.
50
The bubble has to burst at some time. If not now then later.
30
Just glancing at the numbers most days but seems that China report just over or just under 100 new deaths pretty often? When you factor in all the variables this seems unlikely? I imagine it going up or down, not a flatline? Anyone….
50
Do you really believe the Chinese statistics ?
How naieve !
30
I’m saying the figures seem implausible. So why does the media just go along with something so serious as the body count?
10
it could be an artifact of how the different agencies report to the central authority.
10
We are repeatedly being told the “risk is low” here. I don’t accept that.
Our border is temp closed to those from China, but we would easily get symptomless carrier(s) from one of the other outbreak countries.
I’d also be interested in answer to @Rhyl question about someone testing +ve after 14days of quarantine.
Forgive me if already discussed – can anyone tell me whether scientists have reported on the ability of mosquitoes to spread this virus or not ?
50
Not accepting the ` risk is low‘ mantra from the NZ (UN)Healthy Department is a very wise idea. We can almost guarantee it will hit here sometime from tomorrow onwards if it isn’t already here.
I’m located roughly 20 miles to the South West of the quarantine site at Army Bay, Whangaparoa. The prevailing winds in my location are usually westerly, anywhere from the South West to the North West. Except for last week: it was wet and all incoming was from the North East. About 1.5million people are about that distance from the South West to the South East — the whole of Auckland City.
I’ll be looking to maintain my Vitamin D 3 levels as best I can. This is the best time of year to build my levels. This handy chart from NIWA shows surface `signal strength.’ (see Page 2).
This page is from Auckland’s Starship (Paedeatric or children’s) Hospital:
https://www.starship.org.nz/guidelines/vitamin-d-deficiency-investigation-and-management/
My information cannot necessarily be directly translated into Australian benefits because NZ’s atmosphere differs a little from Australia’s:
From NIWA at: https://niwa.co.nz/our-services/online-services/uv-ozone
Because of differences in ozone, sun-earth separation and pollution, the peak UVI in NZ is approximately 40% greater than at comparable latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere because:
1. The Earth is closer to the sun in December and January
2. The Earth has an elliptical orbit, and passes closest to the Sun during December and January. This means that the sun is relatively close to New Zealand [& Australia] in summer.
3. Low air pollution levels lead to higher UV levels
4. New Zealand has a relatively ‘clean’ atmosphere due to its remoteness and low population density. This means that UV radiation can pass through the atmosphere relatively unhindered.
5. Ozone hole lets through more UV radiation
6. In summer, ozone-depleted air moves over New Zealand from Antarctica. This ozone hole means there are less ozone molecules to absorb UV radiation before it reaches Earth’s surface.
Points 1 and 2 are common for both countries. From point 3 onwards, check your available Australian sources. Point 4 is where the Australian and New Zealand atmospheres may differ most. Australia could have higher levels of atmospheric dust and oils …
40
Why?
12
Excessive vitamin D is associated with depleted K2 levels. Lack of K2 is associated with calcification of the arteries….etc etc…most GP’s are slow to cotton on IMO that i have seen.
Vitamin D and Vitamin K2-7: The Critical Co-Dependent Link to Heart Health (with Kiran Krishnan)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZeiWMlrceY
“Vitamin D in Vascular Calcification: A Double-Edged Sword?”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5986531/
00
It is interesting because too much D3 depletes K2 and without K2, Osteocalcin cannot be carboxylated and ends up sticking to the arteries…this can be associated with the western epidemic of calcification of the arteries.
20
Thank you Environment Skeptic.
That’s what happens if you take too much orally. Didn’t you know that?
It’s best to not to take it orally.
10
You see, it’s like paracetamol: at recommended dosage levels, paracetamol is a very useful analgesic for most people. Above those levels, it can inflict liver and kidney damage to the point of organ failure which can mean death. Does that prospect stop people from using it? Don’t be silly …
I don’t use paracetamol. It seems to have some sex-based properties and doesn’t work for up to 35% of the male sex. It has zero effect for me. I don’t know what proportion of the female half of the species misses out on it if any, so don’t bother asking. Go find out for yourself.
That’s a property of many compounds we use medically: excellent in appropriate doses and anywhere from unhealthy through dangerous to deadly if abused.
Vitamin D in proper dosage is actually anti-atherosclerotic.
Do your research properly laddie.
10
Great thing about Vitamin K2 is that unlike all you mention, only K2 is GRAS (generally regarded as safe). At any dose!
There is new research that is now showing that vitamin D3 without K2 is not good. I will get some references later this evening.
00
Vitamin K? K for Klot? I have no trouble at all with having my blood clot. Quite the reverse: I’ve been treated since the start of last year with blood thinners because of blood clots in one or my legs.
I lost a good friend at work some years ago to a DVT (Deep Vein Thrombosis Thrombosis = blood clot) which got into a lung and suffocated him.
If you want to take Vitamin Klot, then go ahead. Don’t expect to see me at your funeral.
If you have a vitamin K deficiency, Environment Skeptic then I would advise you leave the booze strictly alone and eat more fresh food/em K1 is from vegetables (go Vegan!) and K2 is from eggs, meats, and some bacteria. Yes, you can eat eggs, meats and cheeses until the cows come home But so what?
https://www.webmd.com/vitamins-and-supplements/supplement-guide-vitamin-k#1
10
You, Environment Skeptic, are dangerous. You obviously know nothing of any substance about Vitamin-D and Vitamin K. Anyone taking your utterances seriously could inflict — possibly — life threatening harm on themselves.
I’ve said above (# 15.1.1.1.2)
Do your research properly laddie.
You haven’t.
Your inferred advice is positively dangerous and could be life threatening. Vitamin K (K1 ) is available in more than adequate quantities in fresh vegetables and (K2) in cheeses, meat and eggs. Supplements are not readily available. Have you paused to wonder why? Here’s a hint: K = clot. What my body extracts from our diet (which is pretty good) is more than adequate: I’m not a haemophiliac nor do I have any haemophilia tendencies. I do have a clotting problem with one leg but that’s a vascular problem requiring a little surgery.
I’ve pointed out that the human body has over 3000 Vitamin D receptors, so maybe it’s important. You don’t seem to realize that our bodies actually manufacture Vitamin D in quite large/significant quantities so it’s a little difficult to overdose on it — except through supplemental oral doses which are not recommended. Those quickly become toxic. Any more than c. 100IU per day orally is dangerous. Our body routinely makes 2000 – 10,000 IU per day (or more) given the opportunity. Regulation is through melanin — sun tanning.
I reiterate: Do your research thoroughly and properly, laddie.
What you’ve passed here is not only risible but dangerous.
10
Because it may be the best defence.
You will notice that there is a ‘flu’ and `colds’ season. It’s always c. the second half of winter and early spring. That’s the time of year when a population’s Vitamin D bottoms out. (Vitamin D is not known as the `Sunshine Vitamin’ for nothing.)
“https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/does-vitamin-d-protect-against-respiratory-viral-infections/7FDF0857C837FD464453882220BB7B29/core-reader
https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-e&q=A+randomized+controlled+trial+of+vitamin+D3+supplementation+for+the+prevention+of+symptomatic+upper+respiratory+tract+infections%2C%22+Li-Ng+
“The vitamin D–antimicrobial peptide pathway and its role in protection against infection
A. Gombart 2009 HHS Public Access https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2821804/
Just a few papers … I have more. Enjoy.
10
Just out of interest: Vitamin D has c. 3000 receptors throughout the human body. Maybe that makes Vitamin D important.
It’s been closely linked with the human immune system since the early 1920s. Maybe that also indicates the importance of Vitamin D to the human immune system.
A few more from my collection of papers:
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fimmu.2016.00627/full
Role of Vitamin D in the Hygiene Hypothesis: The Interplay between Vitamin D, Vitamin D Receptors, Gut Microbiota, and Immune Response
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/91/5/1255/4597253
Randomized trial of vitamin D supplementation to prevent seasonal influenza A in schoolchildren.
Urashima M1, Segawa T, Okazaki M, Kurihara M, Wada Y, Ida H. 2010
https://academic.oup.com/ajcn/article/91/5/1255/4597253
Vitamin D and Influenza—Prevention or Therapy?
Beata M. Gruber-Bzura
10
Oops: I omitted attribution for the first paper in the above list. That was naughty so here it is:
Authors: Allison Clark1* and imageNúria Mach1,2
Date: 2016
10
well: it’s not a good morning today. Here’s the rest of it:
1. Health Science Department, International Graduate Institute of the Open University of Catalonia (UOC), Barcelona, Spain
2. Animal Genetics and Integrative Biology Unit (GABI), INRA, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Jouy-en-Josas, France
Have I left anything out? Hmm, can’t see it …
10
Found this.. https://www.nea.gov.sg/our-services/public-cleanliness/environmental-cleaning-guidelines/frequently-asked-questions
“The COVID-19 virus is spread through close contact and droplets, but not through the bites of mosquitoes.”
But it is uncharacteristically absolute, compared to their similar FAQ re swimming pool and soiled matter.
This also seems to be out of date (or possibly just incorrect ?):
“The COVID-19 situation is evolving, and characteristics of the virus are still being determined. For now, the evidence suggests that the virus is transmitted mostly through respiratory droplets when people sneeze or cough.”
If aerosol spread is possible (not yet determined?), and surface contact/contamination spread is still considered possible (not ruled out, survival away from host not determined?), and asymptomatic carriers (not coughing or sneezing ?) we know for certain can spread the virus… doesn’t that imply a mosquito contact could likely also carry ?
10
According to the Worldometer Coronavirus update China recorded only 6 new cases yesterday. Call me cynical but I do not believe it for a second. I wonder if they have yet again changed their protocol for reporting infections or if they left our three zeros behind the 6.
70
The answer may lie in the fact that China will only report infections confirmed by lab tests. They have gone through a lot of test kits lately and may have few left. A report from one of the locked down Italian towns is that they have run out of test kits so if the virus continues to escalate clinical testing may become the primary method of diagnosis.
30
If you believe states in cahoots with other corporate entities lie and manipulate constantly and if you believe that the media are a curtain, not a window…
Then be careful what freedoms, what privacy, what peace of mind you surrender in defending against this bug. A number of recent events have convinced me that people who are saturated in media will believe anything, regardless of how brainy or well-informed they are, even if the hoaxing is done so badly that it gives itself away, as if on purpose. I don’t consider myself brainy or well-informed…but I know I’m not saturated in media.
Learn from the climate beat-up and the fires. Climate disasters are real, fire danger is real…but look how they were manipulated, and by whom they were manipulated.
One place I go to pick up gossip or slants on “news” is Zero Hedge. Lately I read that it is owned by a Serco-owned media group. I still haven’t confirmed that, but it’s interesting that ZH has been double saturated in Coronavirus, far more than mainstream media. Either this virus is “worse than we thought”, or Serco, the universal spider, wants it looking that way. In any case, I’ve stopped using ZH.
I know I may lose friends with this comment, but too bad.
100
I rarely bother with ZH. I dislike some of the language and sentiments in some of the comments; they can be offensive. I’d rather spend time reading where commenters usually have better manners.
90
Moso . . .
I posted this before but don’t know if anyone read it . . . .
It features Serco and thought you might find it of interest if you didn’t see it.
https://nexusnewsfeed.com/article/geopolitics/coronavirus-traced-to-the-british-crown
10
With the whole climate change racket experience and the fires …IMO we know we can’t trust any except a small handful of the MSM on anything at all now or ever…and that small handful will be shut down…frozen out at the first opportunity.
If we’d been able to trust the almost all LW journalists to respect their ‘public right to know’ stay-out-of-jail privilege …we’d have seen the meme that every severe weather event or disaster is caused by CO2-induced CAGW…including the bushfires..whacked on the head from the start since ABC themselves have published long articles in recent years about the IOD and El Nino having been established as the cause of drought in Australia….replete with profiles of the Australian researcher who established it.
And the high-paid LW journalists if honest would have at least reported that Roger Pielke Jr was driven completely out of climate change research and reporting by the Obama administration and the CAGW industry because his research and that of lesser-known colleagues concluded that there was no increase in either severity or frequency of severe weather events in the CO2 era….only in cost because more people live in risky areas….yet those who intimidated and threatened him made no attempt to disprove his conclusions before professionally eviscerating him…and the LW MSM made no attempt to find out why.
Likewise the ‘97% of scientists agree’ meme.
The ‘researcher’ on whose questionaire it’s based has admitted the number is 97% of a very few..ie a very small number…yet it’s become the propaganda tag for the hoax of the millennium….repeated by the CAGW racket, journalists and policymakers world-wide as incontrovertible evidence.
If LW journalists were not deliberately deceiving and socially engineering a whole generation …then instead of using the ‘science’ false alibi…they’d be calling out the absence of evidence..the harm done to the world’s children by the pretence that this totalitarian attack on science …the anti-science consensus set in concrete before the most vital research was done..the peer review corruption…the intimidation and silencing of dissenting scientists and their research…the shutdown of questioning of all kinds of inconsistencies and bad practice including in global temperature measurement itself….the pretence that this is the science this generation should revere and be inspired by….they’d be
calling it out in the interests of all our futures.
So IMO the only judicious thing is to try to take everything LW journalists report on any topic with a grain of salt…and a large portion of scepticism …and that certainly includes the corona virus situation.
They could be trying to alarm us for their own ideological purpose ..or they could be minimizing it for similar reasons …we would never know.
80
Could you please spell out what “LW” means?
00
Just a guess but “LW” = left wing !
10
It is a common ploy to label those you disagree with about something as having a political agenda that explains their point of view. It means that there is no requirement to concede that they have anything to say.
btw LW is left wing
00
You mean like the Deniers label?
50
So you racked and racked your brain Roger Knights ..and you couldn’t think what LW might mean when placed in front of ‘journalists’..then you racked it again and ‘ the ‘ideology’ reference didn’t give you a clue?
Maybe you truly just couldn’t work it out …but on the other hand… it may possibly be that you’re one of those on the Left who these days finds it useful to pretend there’s no such thing as Left and Right in order to distance themselves from the genocidal horrors perpetrated by their ideological comrades in the name of the Left and Socialism…ie they pretend there’s no such thing ….except when they want to smear Pauline Hansen and conservative Liberals by calling them Far Right.
00
A bit harsh that truth !
Like a lot of TLA’s, once you know what it stands for its obvious and useful to use…
.. but if you have not come across it before its just another “AUR” !
00
If zero hedge was a water trough you wouldn’t let your dog drink out of it.
60
Has anyone seen reports on potential impact on Olympics….Japan. a friend had his cruise cancelled that is not due until August.
50
Well it could be interesting – if the bug appears to hit SE Asian countries harder than western countries, then the olympics will be affected for sure.
We may see some sports with champions from countries different to those who traditionally prevail.
20
It seems the politicians only like to misinterpret the precautionary principle when it applies to environmental matters.
Someone needs to remind them of the difference between a proactive and a reactive stance.
60
O/T
Betelgeuse update:
The bad news is that Betelgeuse is not going to go (super)nova today. It will go off sometime in the future but not right now. It’s starting to brighten again. That’s got most of the astronomical community disappointed but that’s life. It would have been a spectacular sight from our POV, but now it’s back to waiting. It could go off anytime from tomorrow to sometime in the next 100.000 years or more.
It’s c. 640 – 650 Light Years away, so there would have been nothing to fear in the way of damage to our little (comparatively) mudball. It wouldn’t even have been ceramified (ceramifried?). If it had been closer than around 50 or so Light Years, then whenever the Supernova happened, life here would have been a lot lot more exciting and maybe we would have had a permanent cure for Covid 19.
70
Sophocles, we’re jest not good at predicting.
H/t Philip Tetlock.
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There was a huge Q&A session that Dr John Campbell did on Saturday where he gave an answer to several of the questions other commenters above have asked.
There’s two videos about it on the same day, both titled “Live Chat with John, Saturday, 22 Feb, 2020, 19.00 UK time”
As luck has it, an index of his questions and answers was posted on Reddit in the /r/Coronavirus subreddit.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/f88oli/john_campbells_live_question_and_answer_session/
You can find if he’s answered your question from the index, follow the links to the youtube videos, and use the index to skip the player to the timecodes where he answered that question.
Readers “Bill in Oz”, “Caltrop”, “Matthy”, “NZer”, and “Macha” may be interested in Dr Campbell’s opinion on the topics of (respectively) humidity & climate, bioweapon, slowdown in China, mosquitoes, and the 2020 Olympics.
Of course that was Saturday and the situation is changing so quickly that it’s always possible new information will make his answers obsolete soon. Why should you bother with his opinion? He’s a qualified Accident & Emergency ward nurse who also teaches physiology at the Peninsula Medical School, Universities of Exeter and Plymouth, UK. (Incidentally he’s a co-author of a paper that tested if fake acupuncture needles could be discerned from “real” acupuncture needles, which is enough to establish he has been in the business of busting myths, not creating them.) He has clinical experience, teaching experiences, and written a book on Pathophysiology. So his speculations are at least as good as anyone else’s at this point.
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“Turkey and Pakistan closed borders with Iran. (Some Iraq did yesterday). Afghanistan followed.”
In what seemed at the time (ten days ago) apocryphal, but may be correct, I read that N. Korea had closed its border with China.
30
The latest is some cases show incubation period beyond 24 days and China now quarantining recovered patients because they now suddenly test positive again….”oh its just like the flu what’s your problem”. Its one damn smart virus for sure.
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China is diagnosing coronavirus patients using CT scans. How many of those have pneumonia and do not have coronavirus?
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/china-coronavirus-diagnosis-ct-scans-lungs-2020-2
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No they are not. They did that once with a massive increase in cases and swiftly reverted to only reporting cases confirmed by lab test.
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WE NEED A GAME CHANGER. We need a way to ID the asymptotic people with Covid19. I read a piece on Friday saying that it is detectable before symptoms. I further read elsewhere that is is detectable in focal matter before symptoms. Therefore what is direly needed is an anal probe decal extraction test performed on international entry. Or perhaps this with a checklist.
Put this project on RUSH DEVELOPMENT AND EMERGENCY DEPLOYMENT, while more and more borders are closed, temporarily.
This is the only optimism I have, at this point. Otherwise, WWII or Mao famine numbers of mass deaths – and in half the years time – shall follow for the world.
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Sniffer dogs..they have been trained to detect diseased plants . Not kidding.
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“Cut thru myths to see facts about COVID-19”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/23/cut-thru-myths-to-see-facts-about-covid-19/
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Here is some numbers to think about. Outside China starting on Feb 17th
Recovered rate
97.14%
96.86%
96.15%
95.15%
94.02%
92.57%
90.49%
Percentage of Severe or Critical cases (Almost stable).
5.54%
4.64%
5.00%
4.49%
4.17%
4.85%
4.76%
Mortality (Of Course give 100% with recovered)
2.86%
3.14%
3.85%
4.85%
5.98%
7.43%
9.51%
So Now compare with Inside China. Data since Feb 3rd
Recovered rate of ongoing cases
60.52%
64.76%
66.84%
73.59%
74.80%
77.04%
78.51%
80.99%
81.30%
81.57%
82.64%
84.32%
85.24%
86.55%
87.13%
87.95%
88.54%
89.21%
89.88%
90.43%
90.53%
Severe or Critical cases of ongoing cases
13.85%
14.50%
16.57%
19.06%
18.22%
17.88%
19.44%
20.95%
15.58%
18.72%
19.32%
19.49%
19.45%
20.07%
20.60%
21.10%
21.58%
21.15%
21.78%
22.29%
Mortality
35.24%
33.16%
26.41%
25.20%
22.96%
21.49%
19.01%
18.70%
18.43%
17.36%
15.68%
14.76%
13.45%
12.87%
12.05%
11.46%
10.79%
10.12%
9.57%
9.47%
Severe cases within China slowly going up and way higher than outside. But the same death rate. Something don’t match up ? Or at the same death rate (9,5%) will we see a jump in Severe / Critical cases outside of China ? Probably we have to wait another month before we know.
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What is the mortality if someone is surviving with a weekly income that has suddenly disappeared ? That’s my big question.
Food
Food
Food
How are the poor eating without an income?
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“Bring out yer dead!” Stephen Wilde is way to blasé and cruelly accepting.
A 2.3% death rate, as per the CDC of China, is roughly 150 millions dead – probably this year. Even if the death toll will be “only” 50 million, that’s comparable to WWII, but in a year instead of 5 or 6. Or to be more Chinese, it’s like Mao’s mass famines.
“[Xi] did a bad bad thing!” to up date a lyric from an old Chris Isaac song (“Baby Did A Bad Bad Thing”).
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Hardly ‘accepting’.
Just keeping much more dire ‘predictions’ in perspective until we have better evidence one way or another.
It is too easy and conducive of panic to assume worst case scenarios all the time.
70
Why not? Climatologists have made a good living out of assuming the worst (with less evidence).
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Greame; “less”?
There’s No evidence and you can’t have a negative amount of evidence.
🙂
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Prepare for the worst. Any other outcome will be beneficial and so welcome !
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I wonder if he crematoriums in Wuhan are still going full bore 24/7 ?
I read an estimate of 30,000 two weeks ago.
Is there still a dense cloud of SO2 in the atmosphere there from the cremations. ?
10
Been locking now and then. Still there, but also over other big cities, and we really don’t know if it’s from cremations. Consider that speculation for now.
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Its not yet a pandemic, but it might become one.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/02/23/cut-thru-myths-to-see-facts-about-covid-19/
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All numbers comes from two places only :
http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
and
gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
(Saved the info every day to get the picture). Then just use the data.
Death Rate = 100 * Deaths / (Deaths + Recovered) ; That is only counted on resolved cases.
Serious cases Rate = 100 * Serious Cases / ( Total cases – Deaths – Recovered ) ; Only counted on open cases
Jo : How to upload a table or pic that is not on a server ?
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Comparison to International cases (those outside of China and Hong Kong, Iran is also excluded)
Total Cases 2099
Deaths 17
Serious cases 86
= 0.81% Fatal
= 4.1% Critical
The proportionate fatalities in Australia if 100% contraction rate presumed = 205,000 fatalities
The proportionate critical cases in Australia if 100% contraction rate presumed = 1,040,000 critical cases
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And how many deseases do you know that have had a 100% contraction rate in the population ?
You seem to have adopted the same Alarmist tactic as the AGW mob !
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Then again, how many people have not had a cold in the last year or so?
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Well, from a random flash sample of 1 (me !) ……..100% !
PS,
Reported cases of flu in Australia last year…310,000
Deaths attributed to flu….3500
Death rate. 1.1 %
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This coronavirus is novel and very infectious. With most colds and flu our bodies have some protection because we’ve had something similar before. Pandemics occur when the more novel and infectious the disease is. This disease will infect a lot of people before any vaccine is developed.
30
Get a grip Chad, the assumptions were stated frankly for full transparency, so that even a goose could understand that they were not realistic.
Write a complaint to your local MP.
80
“..not realistic..”….. yes, obviously,..so why post them ?…..
…just looking for attention ?
This is potentially a serious problem, but the last thing that is needed is to create fear or panic , especially with totally unrealistic projections.
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For relative proportions, obviously.
The only person looking for ‘attention’ here is you, trolling officially published numbers, stated plainly and openly in their proper and correct proportions.
Have you written your letter of bitter complaints to your local MP yet? Maybe we can have some mediation counseling so that you can express you concerns, and tell people who care how you’re feeling? But of course if you really have nothing constructive of value to say you could always take advantage of the more useful opportunity to shut your trolling cake hole more often.
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Bill iO
Does it ?.
Do we know the ethnic background of those victims ?
We need much more data on victim demographics before we draw any conclusions
12
Agree that there is just not enough information at present. EU countries are adept at concealing origin of individuals and have had a lot of practice as they attempt to conceal their immigration disaster but it makes analysis of what is going on very difficult. So far it seems as though there may have been some transfer of infection from Chinese to Europeans but transfer over subsequent cycles to Europeans is less certain. Italy would clear this up instantly if the data were available. So far I have not found it.
Africa is the other standout anomaly, especially sub Saharan Africa. There has been one case in Egypt attributed to “a foreigner” but no others. With the high level of Chinese investment in Africa and the already well documented failures of detection it is highly likely that infected individuals have traveled to Africa. Where are the subsequent infections? Have they not been correctly diagnosed? Has the data not been collated? Is there concealment going on? Is there a genetic difference in susceptibility? No idea but there is something different going on.
If there are population differences this is not much cause for complacency as any immunity conferred is unlikely to be robust against mutations in the virus where the selective advantage is so high.
10
And just to add on Italy from WHO site, of 76 cases, nine are thought to be infections contracted in Italy, three from China and 64 with the site of transmission under investigation but no information on ethnicity.
20
The simplest answer might just be to say that Africa is Ungoverned.
Most African governments would have two main aims:
To stay in power,
And
To keep an eye on, and make sure that Switzerland remains a free country.
With banking system intact.
KK
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Chad, They are Italians.
I think case 1 there was an Italian who returned from China
And passed it on to friends over a meal
While remaining symptom free.
And now apparently is testing negative to the virus !
Super spreader
But his friends and family passed it on to other Italians In Lombardy..
Bugger !
10
Iranians are also genetically European.
Lots of Iranians dying from COVID 19
20
Bill, im not disputing any facts, just trying to be clear , and certain of those facts..
“ Italian” , and “Iranian”, are Nationalities, not ethnic descriptors.
As You know, we have many “Australians” with Asian and other “ethnic” origins.
Do we know for sure what the background of those victims was ?
20
Hope for the best but prepare for the worst and try to ensure that preparation for the worst is not worse than the reality.
Most of us agree that the Chinese figures are not plausible so it must follow that the actual spread worldwide is far greater than admitted thus far.
Testing kits are limited and the testing process seems to be flawed so we are really only seeing the cases worst affected by the virus.
It is too early to be sure but just suppose that the vast majority have only mild symptoms and are never treated or tested. That seems to the basis of the estimates by international ‘experts’ that I referred to above and that produces much lower fatality rates than are shown in the current figures.
Then bear in mind that a lengthy disruption to food and medicine supply chains would produce deaths by starvation and other causes in many parts of the world.
It is important to balance the mortality rate from the virus against the mortality rate from global disruption.
Not an easy call.
50
Q&A was worth watching for once.
Was really interesting to see a Chinese government official tow the party line.
10
South Korea has hit 833 already.
They are in big trouble, i would say.
10
I was listening to an epidemiologist a couple of days ago. She said that once you reach 100 you have lost it.
30
How many South Koreans, lost their lives during the Korean War?
We need to keep a sense of perspective, regarding on the magnitude of what we might be facing!
00
Jo We’re having a good break at the beach !
Nice and warm balmy weather here !
But I dropped by to see how the blog was going.
And have made a couple of comments.
but i notice that if I green or red thumb something
I get ‘duplicate’ a lot of the time.
And comments are being misplaced.
Could a hack attack be happening for whatever reason ?
00
Warm weather is Protective !
Other people are wondering about this and speculating as I have been.
The evidence will come with change of the seasons.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/interesting-read-one-non-proven-speculation-about-the-coronavirus-that-many-hope-might-come-true
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China coronavirus hype straight out of the CDC flu playbook
Feb24 by Jon Rappoport
In today’s episode of Numbskulls and Deceivers in Medical Science, I ask the question: Are Chinese researchers copying an old CDC scam, or have they independently come up with their own lies which happen to mirror CDC hype?
In my series on the China epidemic (archive here), I’ve pointed out that pneumonia—the key indicator of the “coronavirus”—can be caused by many other factors:
Other microbes, fungi, toxic pollution, etc.
And Chinese authorities no longer require direct testing for the coronavirus. Instead, CT scans of the chest are employed. If these scans show signs of pneumonia, the “coronavirus epidemic” label is absurdly applied to the patient.
I’ve also pointed out that, historically, pneumonia has been a major disease in China. Long before “the emergence of the new human coronavirus,” people in China have been dying of pneumonia at the rate of about 300,000 a year. Now those people, passing away from the disease in 2020, can be falsely called “deadly epidemic cases.” How convenient.
Well, it turns out the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has been running its own pneumonia scam for a long time.
Some years ago, when I was writing about the flu, I received emails from Peter Doshi and Martin Maloney. They fed me data from the CDC’s own charts detailing flu deaths in the US. And they pointed out the lies.
Doshi went on to write an analysis for the journal BMJ Online (December 2005). Here is a key quote from his report:
“[According to CDC statistics], ‘influenza and pneumonia’ took 62,034 lives in 2001—61,777 of which were attributable to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was the flu virus positively identified.”
You might want to chew on that sentence for a while.
You see, the CDC has created one overall category that combines both flu and pneumonia deaths. THEY CALL THIS CATEGORY “FLU.” Why do they do this? Why do they deceptively assert the pneumonia deaths are complications stemming from the flu? Because they want to sell doctors and the public on the “dangers of the flu.”
Pneumonia has a number of non-flu causes.
But even worse, in all the 2001 flu and pneumonia deaths, only 18 revealed the presence of an influenza virus.
Therefore, the CDC couldn’t truthfully say that more than 18 people died of influenza in 2001. Not 36,000 deaths, the old CDC PR statistic. 18 deaths.
Doshi continued his assessment of published CDC flu-death statistics: “Between 1979 and 2001, [CDC] data show an average of 1348 [flu] deaths per year (range 257 to 3006).” These figures refer to flu separated out from pneumonia.
This low death toll would drop MUCH lower, if you added the need to confirm the presence of a flu virus in those cases.
Clearly, the CDC combines flu and pneumonia in one category, and calls it “flu,” in order to lie about the number of flu deaths in the US, and thus push the flu vaccine.
So we have two fake hustles, years apart, in the US and China, both based on the deceptive use of pneumonia.
Liars tend to tell the same kinds of lies, over and over. Medical liars often import diseases which have nothing to do with their claims, in order to build up case numbers and pump up threats and fears.
And then sell toxic drugs and vaccines, as solutions.
I’d be quite happy to offer this article and its blunt facts to the New York Times, or the Washington Post, or CBS, NBC, or ABC, providing they assure me they’ll print it and then force their hungriest hounds to track down and indict the high-level deceivers, by name, who are pushing these criminal falsehoods. Ordinarily, I would charge $10000000000000 for the article, but in this case I’ll settle for a six-hour, face to face, live streaming interview with the head of the CDC, in prime time.
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/24/china-coronavirus-hype-straight-out-of-the-cdc-flu-playbook/
https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/02/23/wuhan-and-the-polluted-air-as-a-cause-of-epidemic-illness/
Pneumonia, Bacteria or virus caused?
The good news? “Most cases of viral pneumonia are mild,” notes the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI). Typically, you’ll improve in a few weeks.
Bacterial pneumonia often occurs after another illness, like the cold or the flu. However, most of the time, the bacteria behind bacterial pneumonia do not spread from person to person, says Dr. Lovell.
That’s true for the number one cause of bacterial pneumonia: a type of bacteria called Streptococcus pneumoniae, which is found in many people’s throats naturally, generally without causing harm, says Dr. Lovell. The exception: “If you are not healthy or have problems with your immune system or have conditions that make it harder to fight off bacteria, then you are more susceptible to these bacteria, and it can lead to pneumonia,” he says.
Along with viral and bacterial pneumonia, there’s a third type worth knowing: fungal. This variant is far more rare and generally seen only in people with a weakened immune system due to certain conditions. Other types of pneumonia to note: necrotizing pneumonia (a rare but quite serious type of bacterial pneumonia) and cryptogenic organizing pneumonia (another rare disease, with unknown causes, that’s typically treated with steroids).
You may also have heard of walking pneumonia, which the American Lung Association describes as a “non-medical term” for a case of pneumonia with symptoms so mild, you can walk around without realizing you’re ill……………”
https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/viral-bacterial-pneumonia
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The annual Islamic pilgrimage – Haj – is penciled in for July 28 this year. That’s millions of people pouring into Mecca to rub shoulders, literally, as they swarm around the Kaaba. Will it be a very low turnout?
00
OT I know but just noticed that SO2 is blowing out again around Wuhan. 837 microgm/m3
00
7 NWO Agendas Accompanying the Coronavirus Outbreak
By Makia Freeman
“………………..Deception is a hallmark of government, and clearly all the more so in an emergency, so it is always going to be hard to trust whatever news or stats are coming from official sources. Regardless of the virus’ true origins and virulence, we can say for sure that there are several agendas being pushed as you read these words. It’s the same old Hegelian dialectic strategy of problem-reaction-solution; and whatever the reality is on a microbial level, the world’s population has the perception of a problem, so the ruling class has another opportunity to make their order out of chaos.
Below are 7 NWO agendas being carried out due to the coronavirus epidemic.
…………………Conclusion: Coronavirus Epidemic Being Used to Push NWO Agendas
A screenshot of the opening ceremony of the Wuhan Military Games proclaiming a New World.
Interestingly, the opening ceremony of the Military World Games in Wuhan declared a “New World” (see image of a screenshot from the opening ceremony) which suggests the phrase New World Order and also suggests societal transformation – yet another clue that this entire event was pre-planned. Whatever the truth turns out to be about the origin of the virus itself, who created it, how it was released and whether it is really as dangerous as is hyped, there can be no doubt that the entire coronavirus epidemic phenomenon is being used to accelerate several NWO agendas in typical problem-reaction-solution style.
http://www.renegadetribune.com/7-nwo-agendas-accompanying-the-coronavirus-outbreak/
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Corona virus
Older versions of the book refer to the disease as “Gorki-400.” (Twitter photo)
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3875669
.
.
“…………Another weird thing I noticed was Google’s featured result along the right of the results page when you search for the book.
http://www.renegadetribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Screenshot_2020-02-22-dean-koontz-eyes-of-darkness-Google-Search.png
The book was obviously not released in 2020, as it even makes it clear below the description that the book was first published in 1981. And who is American writer Rob Hopkins? The only Rob Hopkins writer I was turning up is an environmental activist from England. Is this some kind of breadcrumb being left for us? When you click on the Wikipedia description, the factual information turns up.
http://www.renegadetribune.com/dean-koontz-book-predicted-bioweapon-from-wuhan-spreads-throughout-world-in-2020/
.
.
While it’s pretty cool to see films, series, and books make “predictions” to actual events, this crime author from Hong Kong sees it as no big deal.
In fact, Chan Ho-kei when interviewed by the South China Morning Post said such “prophecies” can be spotted.
https://sm.mashable.com/t/mashable_sea/photo/default/asterix-coronavirus_pg5a.960.jpg
“If you look really hard, I bet you can spot prophecies for almost all events. It makes me think about the ‘infinite monkey’ theorem,” he says.
The ‘infinite monkey’ is a theory where if a monkey hits the keys on a typewriter randomly, it will result in a text. Chan says the probability is low but it’s possible.
https://sea.mashable.com/culture/9179/people-are-claiming-that-this-novel-predicted-the-covid-19-virus-did-it-really
00
Yes, I agree. Coronaviruses are obvious threats and hence it would be amazing if there were no forward predictions or propheses. Well put.
00