Watching the AEMO dashboard as a hot summer day hits
Is this the summer crunch-time that the the National Grid managers have been fearing?
Today things are not running smoothly in the green states of Victoria and SA where prices this minute have hit $14,000 per MW hour, or $14 per KWh. These are wholesale prices. Right now heads of major industries are watching the dashboard, turning off everything they can turn off, or switching on the diesel generators, or counting hundreds of thousands or even millions being added to their bills if production cannot stop.
Demand Management schemes (a form of load shedding) will be running to reduce demand — air conditioners will be remotely switched down.
How much of the productive brain power of Vic and SA is distracted from more useful tasks today?
The AEMO has put out an Actual Lack of Reserve Notice (LOR1) saying that Victoria is 300 MW short: “The contingency capacity reserve required is 1100 MW. The minimum reserve available is 815 MW”. Another notice of a “non-credible contingency event” (a code for “something broke”) reports that a busbar, transformer, and line have tripped or opened in Victoria, unplanned.
Victoria
…
SA
…
The notices and forecast for tomorrow are worse
With a few hot days in a row, as buildings get warmer and tempers get shorter, people use more electricity. Hence even if temperatures don’t rise, the longer a hot spell goes, the higher the electricity demand.
This is the 30 minute graph including price and demand, and the forecasts for tomorrow. As far as I can tell, often the shocking forecasts which look like being 3 solid hours of $14,000 electricity will instead resolve to smaller shorter spikes. But millions of dollars of productivity is likely to be burned.
Victoria
Times here are Western Standard Time 3 hours behind actual. (It’s an unhelpful thing the AEMO site does).
In SA:
Times here are Western Standard Time 3 hours behind actual. (It’s an unhelpful thing the AEMO site does).
SA has a Tesla battery now so everything should be perfect. I understand it pulls power out of thin air and pumps it into people’s homes for free … or something.
610
24/7, crosspatch, 24/7 !!
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Pulling power out of thin air is the way that the IPCC’s self serving consensus supports its presumed sensitivity of 4.3 W/m^2 of incremental surface emissions (0.8C) per W/m^2 of forcing input. COE limits the absolute maximum amount of ‘feedback’ power that 1 W/m^2 of forcing can produce to just 1 W/m^2. The additional 2.3 W/m^2 required to support an 0.8C rise has no discernible source, except perhaps magic.
30
The basis for the Western World economy is available and cheap energy. In Australia it’s getting unavailable and expensive. Australia will soon loose much of its economy? And then people will have to leave Australia?
10
People have already started to leave. People like General Motors, Ford, Toyota…
00
***69 on court temp? 2GB tennis commentator, Craig Gabriel, was just on the radio saying that’s fake news and that it is usually no more than 10C above the air temp on court, which would be 47-49C. what to make of it?
18 Jan: Herald Sun: Extreme heat hits Australian Open as Melbourne swelters to near 40 degree temperatures
by KATE SALEMME and LAUREN WOOD
The tournament has copped a barrage of complaints from outraged fans on social media as temperatures at Melbourne park neared 40 degrees and was nearly double that, at ***69 degrees, on Rod Laver Arena as six-time champion Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils do battle…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/tennis/extreme-heat-hits-australian-open-as-melbourne-swelters-to-near-40-degree-temperatures/news-story/6ec7a3d0ff1acbeeb1b5efa20ae8c096
Twitter: 7Tennis: It. Is. ***69. Degrees. Celsius. On. Rod. Laver. Arena.
reply: iTZKooPA: That’s unlikely. It’d be a dozen degrees over the previous world record.
Andres Acevedo: That’s impossible. Nobody would be there.
https://twitter.com/7tennis/status/953847124566802432?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.heraldsun.com.au%2Fsport%2Ftennis%2Faustralian-open-ashleigh-barty-novak-djokovic-roger-federer-headline-stars-on-day-four%2Fnews-story%2Fdbb6399559951bf5ab224935d54d1c0f
50
should have said this was also on Macquarie network (Fairfax) news headlines as being almost “70C” on court.
here as well:
18 Jan: SMH: Australian Open 2018: Novak Djokovic defeats Gael Monfils in extreme heat 4-6 6-3 6-1 6-3
by Sam McClure
It’s often said that extreme heat does strange things to people.
And for two men on the middle of Rod Laver Arena – where the court temperature nearly hit ***70 degrees – the heat did exactly that…
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/tennis/australian-open-2018-its-69-degrees-on-court-and-gael-monfils-is-struggling-20180118-h0kgol.html
30
Probably the temperature of the court surface, itself, rather than the air temperature at head height.
60
So, the surface will be absorbing the radiated heat, and then releasing that energy in the form of convective heat. Isn’t that similar to the process used in a kiln?
20
Perhaps we could start a new industry, exporting hot pavements to places like Russia, Germany, Sweden etc. where they need a little glbal warming? Then returning the frozen pieces to Australia would reduce the demand for airconditioning.
A win-win situation, and no more impractical but cheaper than wind turbines.
30
Have they gone to the wrong place and are recording the temps at “Rod Lava” Court?
10
of no interest whatsoever to the FakeNewsMSM:
17 Jan: Daily Caller: 26 States Urge Trump To Finally Get Rid Of Obama’s Global Warming Rule
By Michael Bastasch
Twenty-six states and state agencies signed onto a letter asking the Environmental Protection Agency to repeal former President Barack Obama’s global warming regulation for power plants.
The coalition, led by West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, filed comments in support of the EPA repealing the Clean Power Plan on the grounds it’s an “unlawful” federal power grab and violates the Clean Air Act…
“The Power Plan’s binding emission limits require States to shift electricity generation from coal-fired plants to natural gas-fired plants and renewable sources,” Morrisey’s coalition wrote (LINK) in comments submitted to the EPA Wednesday.
“This federally imposed policy interferes with the States’ authority to manage the mix of energy generation within their own borders,” the states wrote…
Repealing the CPP will save $33 billion in compliance costs, the EPA found…
http://dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2018/01/17/26-states-urge-trump-to-finally-get-rid-of-obamas-global-warming-rule/
from the linked letter: Comments of the States of West Virginia, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming, and the Louisiana Public Service Commission, the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, and the Mississippi Public Service Commission on the proposed rule entitled Repeal of Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units (Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-20170355; FRL-9969-75-OAR).
the only other mention found online:
18 Jan: WKOW: Wisconsin joins EPA repeal of Clean Power Plan
Wisconsin is one of more than two dozen states supporting the Trump administration’s repeal of the Clean Power Plan.
State attorney general Brad Schimel says the coalition filed a public comment letter with the Environmental Protection Agency that encourages the government to return to the states the authority to manage energy resources…
http://www.wkow.com/story/37290640/2018/01/Wednesday/wisconsin-joins-epa-repeal-of-clean-power-plan
160
That sounds like good news.
70
Good news is no news. I bet nobody published it.
00
If asked about this specific policy Trump would likely reply that he would love to reverse it but he is busy putting out brush fires about Russia and how eating two scoops of ice cream deem him unfit for office. No president should have a BMI as high as his.
31
Strange I can’t see California or New York on that list?
You sure that’s everyone??
10
Any left wing progressive will tell you that the answer is mud huts. If everyone lived in mud huts, burned dung in a stove for cooking, ate bugs and drank recycled pee, everything would be just peachy. They will not be happy until they and their Chinese benefactors have returned Australia to the stone age.
362
I read that as, “returned Australia to the stoned age”, and thought to myself, “that explains a lot!”
70
No mud huts for these people,$2m renovated terrace houses in inner city areas,with high paying jobs in govt and private industry,supported by taxes paid by hard working people on farms ,mine,oil fields and other enterprises.
60
It appears the science is not settled regarding the stone age …
“We’ve always heard that Stone Age people lived in caves.
It turns out that’s not the case.
Mesolithic hunter-gatherers built pit houses that were maintained for 1,000 years.
They often lived in earthen huts, which they reused and kept up rather than building new ones.
http://sciencenordic.com/houses-reused-over-1000-years-during-stone-age
10
Good thing we have only had one genuinely warm day on the NSW coast. And it was cool in other places at the time.
A few days of NORMAL Australian summer weather where it is warm everywhere, could cause major issues with power supply along the whole eastern and south eastern seaboard.
242
And when it gets really hot like this, there is never any wind to power the bird choppers.
150
36C to 38C forecast locally for today, hot, but isn’t that somewhat usual for Victoria in January? The cool stuff is pleasanter but usually short-lived around here in summer. The last two summers we didn’t quite make 40C. We’ve yet to reach it this summer but there’s time yet.
A mud hut might be quite cool but our would-be ‘lords and masters’ would live in mud-brick palaces or mansions instead!
00
Not much here atm. I hope it stays that way as there is a bushfire not too far away.
00
funny the biggest & baddest mentioned are way back in the past:
18 Jan: ABC: The Conversation: Heatwaves are Australia’s deadliest natural hazard and many of us are unprepared
The Conversation By Andrew Gissing and Lucinda Coates, Macquarie University
Working with the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre and the Bureau of Meteorology, my colleagues and I surveyed 250 residents and 60 business managers in Western Sydney and the NSW North Coast.
We found that 45 per cent of those at risk — including the elderly, ill and very young — did not proactively respond to heatwave warnings as they did not think it necessary or did not know what to do.
Few at-risk people reported moving to cooler locations, and more than 20 per cent of people in Western Sydney were concerned about the impacts of energy prices on their ability to use air-conditioning…
An extraordinary heatwave occurred between October 1895 to January 1896 that impacted nearly the entire continent but especially the interior. PerilAUS records 435 deaths, 89 per cent of them within New South Wales.
Deaths also occurred in South Australia, Western Australia, Victoria and Queensland. Bourke, in NSW, lost 1.6 per cent of its population to the heat: temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius in the shade were already being recorded in October, mid-spring.
During the disastrous 1939 Black Friday bushfires, 71 people died in Victoria. But at least 420 people died in the heatwaves which preceded the fires, largely in New South Wales…
Andrew Gissing is an adjunct fellow at Macquarie University.
Lucinda Coates is a risk scientist at the Risk Frontiers Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-18/heatwaves-australias-deadliest-hazard-why-you-need-plan/9338918
100
Remember the days of mid to high thirties day after day for a month straight ? Just as well we don’t get that anymore or the two southern states would be blacked out most of the time .
271
The sooner the states are blacked out for extensive periods, the better.
Unfortunately it seems as though it is the only way our dumb country will wake up to the hoax.
The CO2 horsesh*t has to stop.
351
It will probs be hot in SA till late, wait for the hws to kick in trm.
70
Didn’t werk fer the Dark Ages…(
A serf.
70
I agree. While you wouldn’t wish a blackout on any individual, if the insane pollies and bureaucrats keep on at this rate, we are doomed to years of 3rd world electricity (and businesses going broke hell, west and crooked).
On balance, the sooner we have some severe blackouts, the better – before they blow up any more cheap, reliable, dispatchable coal generators.
310
South Australia joined the second world when it blew up the coal-fired power station at Port Augusta. Few so-called third world nations would behave in such a stupid fashion. Indonesia was mentioned in these pages recently regarding expenditure on new coal-fired generators. No member of the political classes in South Australia—elected or unelected—will offer any divergence from the present obsessions. It is, de facto, a one-party state, a failed state kept alive by taxes from interstate, especially Western Australia.
150
I could not agree more. The sooner the blackouts come, the faster will the public come to their senses and hold the political class responsible.
90
And the ABC, SMH and the Greens will blame fossil fuels.
170
Give the ABC a new budgetary allocation: $1.
90
yep, when I first moved to VIC from Sydney in the early 80s we were having long stretches of super dry hot days hovering around 40. It wasnt quite what I was expecting 🙂
30
Tas has been in the negative dollar value for on extended periods today. How does that work do you get paid for using power!!!!!!
50
Doesnt it mean they cant give it away (but consumers will still be paying for it)
60
Doesnt it mean they cant give it away (but consumers will still be paying for it)
30
It means that their generators (read: hydro) are being paid more by the mainland markets for the supply than it costs them to produce it. Remember – these numbers are wholesale prices, not the price that retail customers pay.
80
Wonder if they learned anything from the last time they wanted to make money exporting their hydro power?
70
You would hope that all generators are being paid more for supply than it costs to produce it. Never seen a negative wholesale price elsewhere, maybe I need to get out more.
40
Trivia: The hotter a solar panel gets, the less efficient it is!
“It is easy to presume that more sun and therefore more heat result in more electricity but this is wrong.”
“One of the key factors impacting the amount of electricity your solar panels produce is the temperature at which they operate.
For example if the temperature coefficient of a particular type of panel is -0.5%, then for every 10C rise, the panels maximum power will reduce by 0.5%.”
https://www.thegreenage.co.uk/article/the-impact-of-temperature-on-solar-panels/
We’re gonna need a bigger solar farm.
10
I think the correct maths is;
-0.5% temp coefficient means for every 10 degrees you loose 5%. In Australia roof top solar easily gets to 80 deg and 25% loss is common on a hot day.
00
Mark,
Your cut and paste translated the small circle symbol for degee C as a 0, it should read 1 deg not 10 so;
00
SA is currently running at over 3x the cost of every other state
120
Now 8:15pm
And look at SA price.
https://s19.postimg.org/xb0xs524j/Cheap_SA_elec.png
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from here
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard#nem-dispatch-overview
82
lol, 5 minutes later, its dropped back down, to $86
Must have been a lucky catch 🙂
92
09:42 it is back to $119
60
NSW to Vic red
Vic to SA both red
60
The best thing that can happen is the two Australian Soviet Socialist Republics ( SA & Victoriastan ) should be allowed to completely fail.
They will be mocked and ridiculed so badly that even comatose California will distance itself from its green spirtual brothers in arms…..
40
Is being 300MW short on a reserve like being a few sandwiches short of a picnic?
151
Can anyone explain who pay for the cap? If shortages allow costs to rise to the ridiculous level of $14/kWh what stops the underlying costs from increasing further once consumers are shielded from increasing price signals? Whoever “eats” those costs will likely not be able to do so unless ithey can eventually be passed on, I’m guessing if this persists the unwitting public will pay or service will stop ( outages) because a cap in theory is nice { but not that nice at such riiculous level) it is not sustainable. If it doesn’t help it’s not needed and if it is needed it can’t be sustainable.
60
I just sent this email (at 9.01pm, 18/1/2018):
[email protected]
Dear Danny,
Just letting you know that on this hot evening the power has just failed at Venus Bay [Victoria]. It is a pity that Victoria is working hard to destroy its reliable power supply.
You might like to read today’s blog post by Jo Nova at http://joannenova.com.au/2018/01/summer-heat-electricity-prices-hit-14-per-kwhr-in-vic-and-sa/ tracking power prices today. A remarkable effort.
As a constituent of your electorate I request that you raise the most serious objections to the destruction of Victoria’s power supply.
Regards,
…..
310
do they know the reason for the failure?
Let’s not be alarmists and blame every failure on the AGW Agenda. 😉
32
Why not? The alarmists try to blame everybody else, for their own shortcomings.
80
We need a reboot of John Howards fridge magnet thing :
Be Alert but Not Alarmed
( especially if you have a back up gennie )….
20
I have long noticed that something you get for free is often one of the most expensive things you can acquire. For example: free dogs, free horses, or free energy. Especially a free lunch from Government. The costs are hidden until it is too late to do much of anything about them.
See the Three Laws of Thermodynamics for instructive detail.
In simple terms:
1. You can’t get ahead.
2. You can’t even break even.
3. You are behind before you start.
If you don’t think they apply to human action, think again. To do anything takes energy. Even just staying alive. The best you can do is use your intelligence to arrange things such that your losses are minimized, the loses are expressed in a way to cause the least damage, and the desired results are maximized. However, you cannot avoid using the energy and suffering the attendant losses resulting from its use.
The Three Laws cannot be repealed no matter how much Government tries to do it. All attempts at such a repeal have failed because the laws are self enforcing. The attempts are called Socialism and the losses turn into human sacrifices. The failure is exposed when the Government runs out of willing sacrificial victims. If your goal is to live and thrive, it is not an intelligent path to follow.
260
Interesting
30
Yes it is. The really interesting thing about it is we humans are as subject to the laws of reality as is everything else. All we can do is understand them and use them to our best advantage. We cannot escape them.
What then of free will? If we are bound by the laws of reality, are we truly free? Yes, in one very important respect. Unlike inert objects and lessor life forms, we are free to choose to be aware or not. To think or not. To learn about reality or not. Then to act based upon our understanding and knowledge or not. What we are not free to do is to choose to have no consequences arising from our thoughts and actions or lack thereof.
What is, is. If you wish to continue to exist, you must accept that fact and act accordingly. If you don’t wish to exist, do nothing and soon your wish will come true.
140
Thx Lionel. Our minds and our language have evolved to
enable us to reason if we so will, and to not let others,
gurus ‘n such, take control of our thinking.
70
In thought as in other areas of life, there is no free lunch. Payment will be made one way or another.
90
” is we humans are as subject to the laws of reality ”
Trouble is getting that FACT through to leftists and politicians !!
73
Reality will get through to them. All we have to do is stop feeding them. They will either wake up and understand or soon no longer be a problem except for disposing of what is left of their bodies.
51
“… stop feeding them.” Easier said than done.
Doug
30
Only one red thumb ???? !!
42
That’s better, I thought you guys were chucking a sickie. !! 🙂
51
The enemy is everywhere. It warps and soils the minds of children in schools, and young adults in universities. It drips lies and venom from Hollywood, TV, newspapers and social media. It never stops. It never sleeps. It wants to destroy us. The enemy is the Liberal-Left.
Paul Weston.
100
KK,
It’s more than interesting. It’s daily life summed up in 3 laws.
Energy is what the universe runs on. Without it there’s nothing.
60
Lionell,
Why do you always insist on telling the truth. You know there’s a free lunch out there somewhere if only you would look a little longer, try a little harder… The left, after all, has managed to become the majority opinion. They must be right. The majority is always right.
Even pigs can fly if you work just a little longer, a little harder on solving the problem. So don’t confuse them with the truth. It only rocks the boat and then government must bail out even more water than they already have to deal with. 😉
61
I insist on telling the truth because I want to stay alive and thrive. Faking it works only when you are telling a story. Even then, the really good stories are about what could have been or might be if _____ (fill in the blank and go from there).
Also, one of my childhood heroes was the boy who asked “Why is the emperor naked?” To this day, I tend to ask uncomfortable questions to discover the truth about things I see and hear.
Some examples: “Why does the Government fail by the standards it sets for itself to achieve?”; “Why does Government do the same and more even in face of their many past failures?”; “Do we really need better people in Government or is it that we need much less Government?”
The answers to those questions led me to conclude that we don’t need better people in Government, we need better ideas in the people. That will make people better and go a long way to solving our problems with Government. I believe it starts with actually telling the truth. That is not enough but the challenge cannot be met without doing it.
80
“The answers to those questions led me to conclude that we don’t need better people in Government, we need better ideas in the people. ”
We need a Trump, or perhaps someone wiling to do a Boris Johnson – ie, prepared to admit mistakes, prepared to say “we got it wrong – sorry” and get rid of the crap that doesn’t work. Someone who doesn’t care WHERE there idea came from, only that it actually does what it claims and is prepared to get rid of ideas that don’t work.
I don’t want someone to tell me how bad I am, and how I have to change to make their master plan work. Instead, I want someone who will search for things that leave our society, environment and economy in a better state, is prepared to trial new ideas to see if they work and get rid of them if they don’t. Instead we have the current useless mob who insist that whatever doesn’t work, didn’t work because it was “compromised” and “didn’t go far enough” etc, but it’s DEFINATELY not the policy.
Costs and benefits (inc. measurement methods) should be part of the legislation, and legislation that fails to meet it’s own self imposed targets should sunset itself out of existence. Not only does this tend to let us keep what works, it also improves forecast abilities via trial and error.
50
Lionell,
I’ll go with much less government any day — twice on Sundays just so I have a more peaceful and less stressful day of relaxation.
00
How much of the productive brain power of Vic and SA is distracted from more useful tasks today?
Excellent summary.
In the mid 1940’s when I was born we had reliable electricity generation that was cheap but occasionally failed. Then we lit the gas mantle or went looking for the candles.
No big dramas.
How has the same service become so politicised, expensive and unpredictable that businesses and whole industries are leaving the country?
We are going backwards and all the politicians can say is “we should become a republic in 10 years. Rubbish!!
KK
200
Same for me in the early 50’s KK.
You’re forgetting that the politicos are “progressives” as well as being Post Science Modernists – the “progress” backwards
140
If I remember correctly the basic price of power can be 40cents per kWh. Help Tony!
If government manipulation can makes it go to $14 someone needs to acknowledge that there’s a problem and fix it.
Does the public understand this cosy arrangement between government and power suppliers?
Everyone is a winner except the public.
KK
110
KK:
Use 10 to convert e.g. 40¢ per kWh is $400 per MWh. $14,000 per MWh is 1400¢ per kWh.
But don’t think that the wholesale price is closely related to the retail price, because the latter is increases by subsidies, network costs (with guaranteed increased margins) and a certain amount of troughing.
50
If I remember correctly the basic price of power can be 40cents per kWh. Help Tony!
If government manipulation can makes it go to $14 someone needs to acknowledge that there’s a problem and fix it.
Does the public understand this cosy arrangement between government and power suppliers?
Everyone is a winner except the public.
KK
31
Just watched another stupid movie about man-made climate change. Much of the world frozen to death – all blamed on man-made global warming – much like The Day After Tomorrow. Just proves the loony left turn things the other way. Black is white (or is it orange?), global warming is global cooling, good is evil, etc. The movie is a real joke. I give it -5 out of 10.
91
BTW name of the movie is Cold Zone. Perhaps it was meant to be a comedy.
91
PeterS:
Or possibly an excuse when the natural cycle brings cold and they can still say “See, it’s man made”.
60
That is why we need to come up with a new scientific paradigm and explain in simple language what is happening.
00
o/t but lots to digest in this series:
part 3:
17 Jan: CarbonBrief: In-depth: Scientists discuss how to improve climate models
While global climate models do a good job of simulating the Earth’s climate, they are not perfect…
In the third article in our week-long climate modelling series, Carbon Brief asked a range of climate scientists what they think the main priorities are for improving climate models over the coming decade.
These are their responses, first as sample quotes, then, below, in full…READ ON
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-scientists-discuss-how-to-improve-climate-models
part 4:
18 Jan: CarbonBrief: Guest post: Why clouds hold the key to better climate models
by Prof Ellie Highwood
(Prof Ellie Highwood is professor of climate physics in the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading and president of the Royal Meteorology Society)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-clouds-hold-key-better-climate-models
20
“We knew it was clouds all along” chorusing climate psientists say in 2022. “We knew the models overstated the slight natural warming of the past 30 years” CO2??
40
But, haven’t they been telling us, ad infinitum, that the “science is settled”?
How can they improve models that are already perfect?
I am confused!
51
17 Jan: WaPo: Yes, global warming will be bad. But these scientists say it won’t reach the worst-case scenario.
by Chris Mooney
Climate scientists on Wednesday suggested (LINK) that they may be able to rule out some of the most dire scenarios of what would happen if greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere were to double.
Unfortunately, the same scientists say the best-case scenarios are also probably unrealistic…
In the new study in the journal Nature, Peter Cox and Mark Williams of the University of Exeter and Chris Huntingford of the United Kingdom’s Centre for Ecology and Hydrology attempt to recalculate the “equilibrium climate sensitivity,” a highly influential metric that describes how much the planet will warm if carbon dioxide doubles and the Earth’s climate then adjusts to the new state of the atmosphere…
The new finding contrasts with a similar study (LINK), also published in the journal Nature, which found that the global climate models that best capture the current climate are also those that predict some of the warmest and most severe outcomes. That study, by the Carnegie Institute for Science’s Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, used a conceptually similar methodology but focused on the incoming and outgoing energy at the top of the planet’s atmosphere, rather than annual temperature wobbles. And it actually pushed upward somewhat the estimate for how bad warming could get.
Brown and Caldeira said they are studying Cox’s new research to try to figure out why it differs from their own…READ ON
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/01/17/climate-scientists-say-they-may-be-able-to-rule-out-the-worst-case-scenarios-and-the-best-ones/
20
How times change. In the ’70s I was a comms tech with the Northern Electric Authority so I spent time in the central control in Townsville and the Kareeya hydro control room.
The Townsville guys took their charter seriously – meet demand and have spinning reserve equal to the output of the biggest gen set online. It was their JOB!!!!
The Kareeya guys proved the versatility of hydro. One month they generated 110% of nameplate. Other times they had freq. control which was a simple adjustment of the taps. [It was manual then]. Later,as dam levels dropped they could GUARANTEE an output during the peaks.
These guys knew what they were doing. How come bloody politicians think they are smarter?
210
what’s a trillion Euros here or there?
18 Jan: Reuters: Germany faces huge bill to meet EU climate goals: BDI study
Reporting by Markus Wacket; Writing by Andrea Shalal; Editing by Mark Potter
Germany will have to spend more than 1 trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) to meet even the lower end of the European Union’s 2050 target to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, according to a draft of a study commissioned by the BDI German industry group.
The study, reviewed by Reuters, said it was technically feasible to achieve the lower end of the EU’s target of eliminating 80 percent to 95 percent of emissions by 2050, given sufficient investments.
***The draft, prepared by Boston Consulting and Prognos over many months, also said the EU targets should be implemented on a global basis to protect the competitiveness of German industry. BDI plans to release the study on Thursday.
The study identified some options for achieving the climate targets, including expanding EU carbon dioxide pricing already in place for the energy and industrial sectors.
It also called for increased support for CO2-neutral fuels through the use of alternative energy sources such as methane, and said it was imperative to develop underground systems to capture and store carbon…
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-germany-climate-climatechange/germany-faces-huge-bill-to-meet-eu-climate-goals-bdi-study-idUKKBN1F62ST
20
***he who shall only be named by the media has increased all the eco risks in his first year! lol.
18 Jan: Guardian: Donald Trump is hampering fight against climate change, WEF warns
World Economic Forum outlines huge increase in all five eco risks since the US president assumed office
PIC: President Trump with sign: Trump Digs Coal
by Larry Elliott Economics editor
The World Economic Forum delivered a strong warning about Donald Trump’s go-it-alone approach to tackling climate change as it highlighted the growing threat of environmental collapse in its annual assessment of the risks facing the international community.
In the run-up to the US president’s speech to its annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, next week, the WEF ***avoided mentioning Trump by name but said “nation-state unilateralism” would make it harder to tackle global warming and ecological damage.
The WEF’s global risks perception survey (LINK) showed Trump’s arrival in the White House in 2017 had coincided with a marked increase in concern about the environment among experts polled by the Swiss-based organisation…
Other states have said they will keep to the pledges made in Paris, an approach supported by the WEF…
The International Monetary Fund is likely to raise its forecast for global growth when it gives its latest economic update in Davos next Monday, and the WEF survey said the recovery underway in all major economies had to led to a sharp improvement in sentiment.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jan/17/us-unilateralism-makes-tacking-climate-change-harder-wef-warns
17 Jan: UK Independent: Extreme weather the biggest global threat facing humanity, says new report
New ranking suggests environmental risks are now considered to be among the world’s biggest problems
by Josh Gabbatiss
Extreme weather and natural disasters have been ranked as the greatest threats to the planet in a new report, by the World Economic Forum…
In the past, these reports have been dominated by economic risks such market collapses, but environmental threats are now considered the biggest challenges facing humanity.
This marks the second year running that extreme weather has topped the list.
“Extreme weather events were ranked again as a top global risk by likelihood and impact,” said Alison Martin, group chief risk officer at Zurich Insurance Group.
“Environmental risks, together with a growing vulnerability to other risks, are now seriously threatening the foundation of most of our commons.”
The report was produced based on feedback from businesses, governments and civil society organisations…
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/weather-extreme-biggest-global-threat-world-economic-forum-risks-a8164656.html
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17 Jan: Reuters: Norway must prepare for Arctic oil race with Russia – minister
by Joachim Dagenborg
Norway must identify potential offshore oil and gas reserves near its northern maritime border with Russia to better protect its economic interest in the remote Arctic region, energy minister Terje Soeviknes said on Wednesday.
The two countries agreed in 2010 to split previously disputed areas of the Barents Sea between them, allowing each to exploit resources hidden beneath the seabed…
“We need to start the discussion about what to do in the far north. We see a development on the Russian side of the border, where they are drilling and likely will find oil,” Soeviknes told an energy conference in Sandefjord.
“If they come across a big find that straddles the border, we must be prepared to do our utmost to secure Norwegian economic interests … This is why we must continue to map out these areas.”…
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) estimates that Norway’s part of the Barents Sea holds nearly two thirds of the Nordic nation’s yet-to-be discovered offshore resources.
The northern part of the Barents Sea, not yet open for exploration, has the biggest potential, with undiscovered resources estimated at 1.4 billion cubic metres (8.6 billion barrels) of oil equivalents, NPD has said…
Norway is western Europe’s largest producer of oil and natural gas but but a drop in output is expected from the mid-2020s unless significant new discoveries are made.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/norway-oil-russia/norway-must-prepare-for-arctic-oil-race-with-russia-minister-idUKL8N1PC2FG
EDF looks to pension funds to help finance Sizewell C
EDF is aiming to attract pension funds and other institutional investors to help finance another UK nuclear plant at Sizewell to follow its £20bn project at Hinkley Point.
Financial Times – 17 January 2017
16 Jan: Nature: China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015
Abstract
China is the world’s top energy consumer and CO2 emitter, accounting for 30% of global emissions. Compiling an accurate accounting of China’s CO2 emissions is the first step in implementing reduction policies. However, no annual, officially published emissions data exist for China. The current emissions estimated by academic institutes and scholars exhibit great discrepancies…
In this study, we constructed the time-series of CO2 emission inventories for China and its 30 provinces. We followed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions accounting method with a territorial administrative scope. The inventories include energy-related emissions (17 fossil fuels in 47 sectors) and process-related emissions (cement production). The first version of our dataset presents emission inventories from 1997 to 2015. We will update the dataset annually…READ ON
https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata2017201
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I want my participation trophy now. IIRC they are saying that Germany will have to spend $1.2T to reach their CO2 reduction goals. That is huge, and will hamstring Germany and thus all of EU. So Germany has a broken leg, but still wants to play in the football (soccer) league. Fine. We’ll just put a cast on the leg of German players, and maintain “competitiveness” by breaking the legs of all other players, and putting casts on them. It is, after all, important that we all work toward a common good. Should be exciting matches. The new league will be restricted to the EU AU, NZ and Canada, because China, India and the USA refuse to break any legs, and most of the developing nations don’t give a damn because there is no free money left for them anyway.
190
[…] Summer heat — electricity prices hit cap of $14 per KWhr in SA, almost there in Victoria […]
00
Ot but this should really make Australians angry:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-17/fbi-investigating-millions-mishandled-dollars-funneled-australian-govt-clinton
60
The comments on that article make fun reading:
“Koalastan $$ were willingly passed across by the tramp Gillard and her political rabble.”
“Another day, another putrid Clinton scandal – this time screwing the Aussie taxpayer.”
70
I do like the ring of Koalastan
10
The power spikes in both States, Victoria and South Australia occurred at the same time 1630, (4.30PM) so let’s drill down into actual power generation for both States.
South Australia. (1630)
Maximum Demand – 2690MW
Wind Power – 350MW (13%) (From a Nameplate of 1698MW, so a Capacity Factor of 20.6%)
Gas Fired Power – 2200MW (81.8%)
Other – 140MW (Interconnectors from Victoria)
South Australia has 30 gas fired Units, and 27 of them were on line supplying power, and quite a few of them are only tiddlers at 10MW, some even less. Incidentally, if the much touted battery was on line at the time, it could have supplied its Maximum power of, well, whatever, who cares, and that would have made up around 5% of the actual requirement for power, but only for one hour, if that, and umm, perhaps a wry comment from me, note how the battery kept the price of electricity low?????
Victoria. (1630)
Maximum Demand – 8910MW (so that’s South Australia multiplied by 3.3)
Wind Power – 250MW (2.8%) (From a Nameplate of 1516MW, so a Capacity Factor of 16.5%)
Hydro – 2100MW (23.6%)
Gas Fired Power – 2140MW (24%)
Coal Fired Power – 4100MW (46%)
Other – 320MW (probably via the interconnector to NSW or Basslink and Tasmania’s Hydro)
Victoria has 21 gas fired Units and 19 of them were in operation.
However, LoyYang B Unit One dropped off line at 3.30PM taking out 540MW in an instant, hence all those tiddlers had to come on line, both in Victoria and South Australia, all at a moment’s notice, South Australia because it could not now rely on the interconnector supply out of Victoria. It was off line for an hour and a half right at that 1630 time slot. It came back on line after an hour and a half down, and within one hour was back at its maximum of 540MW. It probably exacerbated the already huge price spike in both States, but only in one respect, in that it made it last a little longer, because both States were already stretched at this time. That being said, you can bet London to a brick that coal fired power (that inopportune failure of Loy Yang B Unit One) will get the sole blame for all of this.
Incidentally, had Hazelwood still been operational, none of this would have happened at all, as there would have been plenty of extra power to supply both States.
The same will be happening tomorrow at the same time.
Also incidentally, note how those gas fired Units, no matter how small came on line because they had to, and at the behest of the AEMO, who called them up and told them to ‘fire up’ right now, we need the power, at any cost.
Try ringing up a wind plant and asking them to fire up, right now, because we need the power.
The AEMO does not rely on wind power for anything. If it’s there, who cares, if it’s not who cares.
Tony.
360
I always learn something in comments, but I had to look this up:
Tony writes: “ you can bet London to a brick ”
http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-lon3.htm
“Despite the reference to London it’s not known in Britain, or anywhere else outside Australia. “
51
John F
Tony is also correct “by the length of the Flemington Straight”.
30
Literally, that would be 450m., if I’ve found the right place.
Figuratively, it wasn’t even close.
We might say, “by a country mile.”
20
Tony:
I note the peak demand in South Australia. Not many years ago it was 3200MW; do you think the reduction has been achieved by
More solar PV panels on roofs,
Shut down of industries,
People afraid to use electricity?
On the last I note that some workers are still on holidays and the beaches “have been crowded by families”. On the other hand shopping malls may not have been (my sample of 1 and not mentioned on TV news). I wonder if we will see a return to the sixties when people slept on a mattress on the front lawn during hot nights.
60
Dont forget that they have managed to successfully deindustrialize SA. Just of the top of my head Mitsubishi (ancient history), GMH, Plastics Granulating Services (Recyclers) all gone from these weekday totals.
40
Caroma (76 jobs) after 79 years in business, Penrice, Arnotts biscuits (120 jobs), Aldinga Turkeys (79), ACI Glass (60 following previous 50 jobs), Arrium (600), BHP (90), SANTOS (~200), Alinta Energy (Pt. Augusta power stations and Leigh Creek mines) (438),
Unibooks (100), United Dairies (>100). plus many more smaller companies which faded away.
30
Tony,
I dont know if you missed it , but SA also ran those diesel generators at max from 2:30 until 11:00pm yesterday…according to the nem log.
And isnt Tas feeding to SA also during these peak periods ?
70
Also, from the nem log site..
Vic seem to be using Tasie as a giant battery (about 400 times bigger than SA’s tiny Tesla !)..
At nights Tassie imports 500MW from 11pm until 7 am (8hrs= 4000 MWh ) and then feeds it back to (presumably Vic ) during the day at the same rate.
Then repeat the process again the next night !
I guess its mainly to prop up Vic during the day (who are also feeding SA !) ..but i hate to think what the energy losses and costs of all that power shuffleing costs.
80
Well that could happen by getting all the politicians and public servants in Canberra to go to the wind mills and connect a belt system and they can force them to turn regardless of any wind. They can take turns – 1 hour on then one hour off. Force them to do it 24 hours. It would be a fitting punishment for all of them.
20
“That being said, you can bet London to a brick that coal fired power (that inopportune failure of Loy Yang B Unit One) will get the sole blame for all of this.”
and like clockwork, as Tony predicted, Peter Hanam (the Fairfax AGW muthpiece) pops up today with an article doing just that and deftly avoiding the alternate sources that fired up.
00
Peter Hannam no longer allows comments on his articles. Coward!
00
The fact that you actually pay the 14$ per KWhr is sad. I think there would be an actual revolt here in the Midwest if that happened.
80
Likely a lot more than a simple revolt. It would be an all out civil war!
Illinois has very little solar or wind generation so the electricity is almost all from burning fossil fuel.
For my November 162 KWH bill, I paid $31.01. The direct charge for 1 KWH was $0.05798. Adding all the extras, a KWH came to $0.1914. At $14/KWH the electricity alone would have cost $2268.00 not including a charge for the seven extras.
To put it in context, my computer system (72 watt base load) costs me a little over one cent an hour to run. While at the higher rate, it would cost over $10/hour to run. Unsustainable to say the least.
70
Timo,
Those prices are the spot price in the regulated wholesale market. Most of the energy is contract, so the retail market is some kind of average. Its a complicated setup.
40
P.s. thanks for your post Tony.
40
Come on RobK, let’s just assume that someone who is reading about spot pricing wouldn’t understand what that means! I think we should poll every single person who commented and see if they understand real time spot pricing.
Here is a link to ComED (midwest energy company) with it hourly spot prices and you can get 5 minute spot pricing. (link is to hourly)
https://hourlypricing.comed.com/live-prices/
Why do we only have 5 minute resolution? It is because we don’t have volatility. If you pick yearly total average you will see a price variation between 2.5 to 3.2 cents per KwH.
The maximum 5 minute spot pricing I have found, was on a hot day in 2017 where it hit 5.3 cents!
Your argument is it is MORE COMPLICATED is that you have injected poor WIND and poor SOLAR into your mix and you are paying for it ALL over the place. Just look at you bill for electric and tell me what an average across SA is for a KwH in 2017. Then you will see, where you complexity has gotten you!
30
Timo Soren:
The Retail price in South Australia keep moving (UP). ( I always know when a price hike is happening because I get a sudden jump in salespersons selling solar.) Latest is 47¢ per kWh for daytime (USA 37.6¢ per kWh) for the first tranche. Most users would then be hit with a higher price for the rest of their usage. Overnight is now 27¢ per kWh. In addition there are service charges, State government levies and GST. On a total cost daytime would cost me 61¢ per kWh. Cheaper to use a diesel generator (except I have solar PV).
30
In relation to energy, we Aussies are as thick as three bricks.
40
retail voter type customer dont see these price spikes, it get homegenised into steadily rising prices. Most are on annual contracts
30
Our local utility (central Washington State) uses a small ” k “, not the CAP ‘ K ‘ but I think it is the same thing.
This is a Public Utility District (PUD) that buys hydro produced power and sells it to its Coop clients. There is a facility charge of $19.00 per month just for being connected. If zero E units are used that $19 is all you pay.
The Energy Charge = $ 0.897/kWH
We have an all-electric (100%) house in a cold winter / hot summer environment.
Cold = some winter nights go to -26°C (-15°F).
Hot = some summer days go to 38°C (100°F).
Only very rarely would they be more extreme.
20
Technically the small k is correct – the rule being that only units named after people should be capitalised (in this case W for Watt, or V for Volta etc.). Note that this is broken by people, including me, using MWh where M = mega, but I wil claim that the M stands for Prince Harry’s fiancée.
I doubt that you are paying nearly 90¢ per kWh for electricity, I think you dropped a zero or you are a resident of South Australia.
Incidentally “London to a brick” was a phrase used by a well known (horse) race caller years ago to say that the leading horse would win.
50
M is Mega, as in MW (MegaWatt). m is milli, as in mW (milliWatt).
60
The exception that proves the rule!
20
confusing the units and amounts of units I think
amounts of units are lower case up to kilo, then upper case after that (at least to Yotta, I dont get up there much at all these days)
00
As Graeme noted, I dropped a zero. The Energy Charge = $ 0.0897/kWH
Numbers are so hard. Sorry. Off to my room now.
That rate is for residential and farm — we are a bit rural here.
They have other rates. But that would mean more numbers.
00
That’s a death spiral. A kWh has to be measured in cents, not dollars. Otherwise the world shuts down.
70
AEMO reports that the average daily wholesale price on Jan 18 was $1074.12/MWhr in SA and $905.22 in Vic (that’s about 90-107 cents/KWhr. Jan month to date is $113.18/MWhr in SA, $125.66/MWhr in Vic. Fortunately what gets passed on to the networks and then on to retailers is averages. But the impact on large consumers can be far more drastic as they are the ones under pressure to curtail demand to “save” the rest of us from blackouts.
50
We don’t seem to have any such issues here in Queensland. The newest, most efficient fleet of coal-fired generators in Oz, virtually no large scale solar or wind, affordable power bills. Under a Labor govt as well! Maybe the smartest Labor govt in Oz because we export about 15 percent of our power to the southern states at their high prices! LoL!
70
and you think Palacechook will be able to resist some virtue signalling adventures? she will have no bragging rights with her Labor buddies at COAG unless she makes some moves to save the planet
21
Queensland has the “Renewables 400” program, which is enough virtue signalling to get them over the line.
10
AEMO reports that the average daily wholesale price on Jan 18 was $1074.12/MWhr in SA and $905.22 in Vic (that’s about 90-107 cents/KWhr). Jan month to date is $113.18/MWhr in SA, $125.66/MWhr in Vic. Fortunately what gets passed on to the networks and then on to retailers is averages. But the impact on large consumers can be far more drastic as they are the ones under pressure to curtail demand to “save” the rest of us from blackouts.
50
Some politicians are about to be bitten in the arse .
Why would you intentionally screw your voters ?
00
Would it be rude of me in WA to get out the popcorn?
80
The actual numbers for the record:
South Australia
18/01/2018 15:00 $2,134.46 2,489.37 1,514.02 392.32 -546.77 Actual
18/01/2018 15:30 $187.50 2,529.72 1,552.89 349.51 -586.21 Actual
18/01/2018 16:00 $2,196.00 2,550.19 1,879.30 298.98 -355.02 Actual
18/01/2018 16:30 $6,255.54 2,628.08 2,087.42 259.33 -269.96 Actual
18/01/2018 17:00 $14,166.50 2,687.00 2,254.22 252.89 -172.91 Actual
18/01/2018 17:30 $13,136.09 2,744.20 2,287.17 209.93 -237.46 Actual
18/01/2018 18:00 $5,693.03 2,792.89 2,322.18 190.11 -269.16 Actual
18/01/2018 18:30 $292.98 2,879.45 2,151.66 160.73 -530.75 Actual
This clearly shows the impact of removing Hazelwood; meaning SA’s umbilical cord is not as reliable as it was a year ago. South Australians have paid $42,000,000 for one hour of power.
Victoria
18/01/2018 16:00 $1,960.54 8,582.05 8,100.46 209.89 -245.88 Actual
18/01/2018 16:30 $5,682.01 8,739.66 8,192.87 181.80 -343.21 Actual
18/01/2018 17:00 $12,931.04 8,908.23 8,291.33 132.99 -463.22 Actual
18/01/2018 17:30 $11,960.16 8,921.96 8,369.72 129.63 -400.51 Actual
18/01/2018 18:00 $5,078.60 8,975.31 8,509.71 152.37 -292.74 Actual
18/01/2018 18:30 $238.45 8,932.98 8,644.26 142.83 -102.48 Actual
Victorians have paid $112,000,000 for one hour of power. So on one hot day the loss of Hazelwood cost $154M. Can someone remember how much Engie wanted to keep Hazelwood going?
Queensland
18/01/2018 16:00 $146.66 7,338.06 7,801.95 8.40 473.21 Actual
18/01/2018 16:30 $121.41 7,452.50 8,113.93 7.76. 673.99 Actual
18/01/2018 17:00 $213.93 7,564.51 8,307.35 4.65 754.42 Actual
18/01/2018 17:30 $124.05 7,627.19 8,152.75 3.27 530.02 Actual
18/01/2018 18:00 $82.13 7,658.65 8,073.37 2.25 416.24 Actual
18/01/2018 18:30 $86.69 7,641.96 8,059.51 1.90 418.45 Actual
Without Queensland there would have been load shedding in the southern States.
I did not follow the battery output for the whole period but it was at 27MW output around 4pm. It may have been flat by the time the evening peak really hit as the diesel fuelled plant was delivering around 130MW as well at 4pm. With limited storage there is no doubt something akin to range anxiety with the Hornsdale power reserve. Obvious solution is an even bigger battery, even higher cost electricity and fewer power consumers. The SA grid is in terminal decline.
Melbourne is expected to be cooler Friday evening so may not be as bad as the present AEMO forecast.
The whole problem is the result of Climate Change. The incredibly hot weather for consecutive days (front page headlines stated 69C in Melbourne). Then combined with the very unusual weather pattern with a blocking high over the east coast leading to hot air drifting south not having enough strength to drive wind generators.
60
The temp of 69 Celsius relates to court temps at the tennis Rick , now they bombard us with garbage advertisements telling us about the hot tennis this summer etc and it gets hot and now it’s not supposed to be hot so now I’m confused .
20
The 69C is what is at the top of the front page of the Herald Sun in bold red type. It is what will be remembered by the readers.
Facts should never get in the way of an attention grabbing headline.
52
Rick,..
….They already have a much bigger “battery”, a 4000MWh one…its called Tasmania !
See my post 27.4 ..or look at the nem log for Tas and Vic to see how they are using Vic coal to charge Tassie at night, then taking it all back during the day.
20
The problem with Tasmania with respect to SA is that the umbilical cord is long and Victoria sucks from it as well. When the air-conditioners are working hard and wind not doing a lot the lack of capacity in the umbilical cord is the constraint.
At 14:30 on 19th diesel in SA is contributing 170MW and the battery 30MW. The battery will be dean by the time the evening peak hits. The front that cools Melbourne is too far south for SA. Wind is declining. The only prospect of no load shedding is if the Vic peak is lower than forecast due to the front coming through. It appears Melbourne has already peaked at 3pm with ma of 39C.
At 14:30 wholesale price in both SA and Vic cracked $10,000/MWh. Will be interesting to see if they stay there.
00
<blockquoteVictorians have paid $112,000,000 for one hour of power. So on one hot day the loss of Hazelwood cost $154M. Can someone remember how much Engie wanted to keep Hazelwood going?
That seems almost incredible. What a scandal.
Yet I doubt that many Victorians are aware of the incredible economic damage done to our state by the energy minister Lily D’Ambrosio and the Labor party.
80
Currently qld is feeding NSW 800mw, NSW and tas feeding Vic 1.3gw, Vic feeding SA 300mw……oh the humanity…..sorry waste in heat loss ladies and gentlemen peak stupid has arrived
100
If the wind drops in SA today, I suspect they will see “load shedding” (ie blackouts.)
41
Its a bit windy atm
20
Hi, a hot and pissed off South Aussie here and it is telling that the price per kwh (left scale of the graph) is in 1000’s for the renewables heavy states and only 10s/100s for the coal fired states. Surely the only evidence required to prove this is all BS. As a reasonably parochial SA boy I fully endorse the use of every gram of uranium we can dig up and every $ we can get storing the ‘waste’ until the next-gen nuclear generators come on line. God help us all. Andy
30
excuse me *MWh*
00
Not at all, a little bit of schadenfreude is fun at times. I think most non believers wont be upset of something happens as it may prick public awareness. At least the massive spin operation to make it fossil fuels fault, and how renewables and especially the SA battery saved the day will be amusing. I am just sitting here quietly with my generator and a beer (later maybe)
50
that was supposed to be replying to Turtle @ #34
00
Let’s just get people around Au to tell us there monhtly bill (TOTAL) and the KwH they used. It would take no time at all to see the end average cost per KwH.
I am from South Dakota, USA, where we pay reasonable prices. I have a large house, in the freezing midwest. I had a $148.00 electric bill, (because of furnace fans blowing to blow hot air and because of water pumps pumping to pump in-floor heat and some lights.
Last month I used 1260 KwH (my home is a tri-plex!)
My bill was 148$ (including taxes, meter fees, just for being connected fees, emergency fund fees, my house is ugly fees….)
Meaning it cost me 11.74 cents final cost.
The actual KwH rate is around 10.5 cents.
Here is a link to info about South Dakota
https://www.electricitylocal.com/states/south-dakota/sioux-falls/
There you can see we AVERAGE 10.67cent residential commercial 8.19 cents and industrial 6.57 cents. Add on taxes and meter charges it is a bit higher but not overly so.
20
AU’s prices are up around 40 cents a kilowatt some peoples bills are 3k a quarter
10
It would be interesting to get some samples. Monthly figures arent really a great indicator as they can vary so much (we use 3 times the power in winter, we range roughly between 300>900kWh a month)
We are in regional VIC, 3 bedroom all electric house, mostly 2 people, 3kW nameplate solar with no feed in credits and solar assisted hotwater.
Annual bill $1560 and I should add $200 for winter firewood so say $1860 p.a.
Power charge is $0.29c per kWh + $1 supply charge (Momentum if interested)
Last 12 months 6380kWh (odd way to use units but they stay in kWh on the bill)
20
re the 69C on the courts. I wrote earlier that Craig Gabriel/tennis commentator 2GB, said on air yesterday that it was fake news, because on court temps are only about 10C higher.
if it was 39C, then on court should have been around 49C, shouldn’t it?
ANU’S Liz Hanna agrees!
17 Jan: news.com.au: James Matthey: ‘Someone could die’: Deadly warning for players at Australian Open as Melbourne weather nudges 40C
Dr Liz Hanna of the Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University and the Climate and Health Alliance told news.com.au it ”someone could die” if players pushed their bodies too far in extreme conditions.
The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) is forecasting a maximum temperature of 39C on Friday in Melbourne.
Dr Hanna has conducted research into the impacts of ambient temperature on athletes and said players at Melbourne Park are even more at risk of suffering because temperatures on court ***COULD BE UP TO 10C HOTTER THAN BOM RECORDS ELSEWHERE due to the grandstands directing “radiated heat” onto the courts…
http://www.news.com.au/sport/tennis/australian-open/someone-could-die-deadly-warning-for-players-at-australian-open-as-melbourne-weather-nudges-40c/news-story/446995a617b6975c18ac1cf15284a318
yet –
at 4mins25secs: 2GB’s Peters asks about the 39C and 69C temps. Hanna says 69C would be temperature in the sun and that figures the BoM puts out are temperatures in the shade. later says there will be more and more extreme heat days (presumably alluding to CAGW).
AUDIO: 6mins51secs: 19 Jan: 2GB: Dangerous heat at the Australian Open
Dr Liz Hanna of the Climate and Health Alliance tells Natalie Peters Australian Open organisers need to make some changes to heat procedures, or move the event from January.
https://www.2gb.com/podcast/dangerous-heat-at-the-australian-open/
also made a point earlier that she didn’t come up with the 69C figure. who did?
I am confused.
20
The question to me is ‘why have this tournament at a time of the year when high temperatures are pretty well inevitable?’
00
A better question is why not close the roof on the three courts that have them and turn air-conditioning on. If it was raining, the outside courts would not be used and matches would be rescheduled.
People pay months in advance for $100 seats in these courts to enjoy a day at the tennis. Some are not able to cope with temperature in the low 40s so are not prepared to risk their health and consequently forfeit their seat as well as losing the money paid.
Australian construction sites usually have rules regarding heat stress once the temperature exceeds 35C. Having players on intravenous drips after a match is not a good look.
00
Off the subject Jo, but has there been any analysis or comment of the latest climate report?
BOM annual climate statement shows 2017 was Australia’s third-warmest year on record
20
Also off the subject but of interest.
Latest from Tony Heller:
2017 – One Of The Least Hot Years On Record
Posted on January 18, 2018 by tony heller
31
Somebody is sure making a lot of money from this and some investigator needs to follow that money.
Things like this used to be called ‘windfall profits’ but now I guess they could be called windmill profits.
In the meantime, this is a lot of discretionary income lost to the economy which, on top of all the businesses closing due to these high energy prices, cannot be a good thing – except for those robbing the people and the vultures waiting to take more.
20
It must be p0i$0n to actually write about or even mention coal fired power in the media, because without it, Australia would just ….. STOP.
For the life of me I can’t figure out why no one in the media even bothers to actually check.
Look at this.
Australia has 16 coal fired power plants and 49 Units at those plants. Currently, just three of those Units are off line. One is Liddell Number Two, now down for more than seven Months, and I have questions whether it will ever come back on line if the plan is to close the plant down, so why would they bother fixing it back up and realistically wasting the money if they plan to close it down. Then there are two Units in Queensland down, one at Gladstone and the other at Kogan Creek.
So, that takes 1520MW out of the system.
That leaves us with the total Nameplate for the remaining Units at 21500MW.
Yesterday at around 4PM, just on Peak Power time, those 46 Units were generating 20200MW. So, they were, all of them, running virtually flat out, generating at a Capacity Factor of 94%. Barring a few plants in Queensland, all of them are older than the best case hoped for lifespan of 25 years for wind plants.
Even now, and not yet at that peak power time, those 46 Units are generating 19000MW out of a total consumption of 26800MW, so they are supplying 71% of every watt of power being consumed.
Wind is even having a good day, actually generating at a CF of 36%, and even so is only supplying 5.5% of actual consumed power. The remainder is coming from Hydro and gas fired both about equal power delivery, around 11% each.
So, in effect, fossil fueled CO2 emitting sources are delivering 82% of power.
Until that is actually reported, and people are shown it, and realise the facts, we will have these situations continuing.
We don’t need to close down coal fired power plants. We actually need to replace existing old plants AND construct new ones.
THAT is the fact of the matter.
We just cannot do without it.
Tony.
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Thanks again Tony. All your posts are worth reading, Cheers.
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I second that.
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And the result as reported by AEMO:
Forecast LOR2 condition in the SA region. From 1430 hrs to 1630 hrs on 19/01/2018. The contingency capacity reserve required is 350 MW.
The minimum reserve available is 157 MW.
And in Vic, From 1430 hrs to 1700 hrs on 19/01/2018, the contingency capacity reserve required is 560 MW.
The minimum reserve available is 157 MW.
So AEMO requires some “volunteers” to switch off.
Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) Intention to negotiate for additional reserve- VIC Region- Friday, 19 January 2018. AEMO intends to commence negotiations with RERT Panel members for the provision of additional reserve by issuing requests for tender for the following period of time; 1400 hrs to 1700 hrs 19/01/2018
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Update for SA and Vic from AEMO:
SA: From 1500 hrs to 1630 hrs on 19/01/2018. The contingency capacity reserve required is 350 MW.
The minimum reserve available is 32 MW.
And for Vic:
An Actual LOR1 condition has been declared for the VIC Region from 1320 hrs.
The Actual LOR1 condition is forecast to exist until 1800 hrs.
The contingency capacity reserve required is 1120 MW.
The minimum reserve available is 32 MW.
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Anero.id shows Vic with fossil electricity capacity of 9,600 MW, but that includes Hazelwood 1600 now destroyed. So available capacity 8,000 MW. It reports % utilisation at 90%, so not much to spare.
AEMO reports Vic current demand 8,800 MW, supplied 230 MW wind, 8,200 MW other, with 480 from Tas, 150 MW from NSW, and export to SA of 250 MW.
Peak demand of 9,200 MW is predicted about 4pm, while SA, currently 2470 MW demand, is forecast to peak at 2800 MW at 5pm.
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I’ve just posted on the AEMO again as prices have just hit 14,200 again in SA, not far behind in Victoria and with forecasts to continue at peak price for three hours.
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/01/peak-heat-electricity-prices-lifting-off-industry-shutting-off-in-australia/
How much money will the nation waste today?
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19 Jan: ABC: Australian Open: Heat policy needs to be looked at, Djokovic says, but Federer maintains his cool
By Dan Colasimone
***A court temperature reading of 69C was recorded during the match between Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils, which the Serb eventually won in four sets over nearly three excruciating hours…
(HUH!)Let’s hope the Frenchman isn’t familiar with the “sous-vide” cooking technique, which involves slow-heating food such as eggs at temperatures in the mid-60s…
COMMENT:
Athinker 6 minutes ago
“A court temperature reading of 69C was recorded…”
How?
Weather Bureau temperatures are recorded in the shade, so that they are recording air temperature.
If you put a thermometer in the sun, all you are recording is the temperature of the thermometer, and that depends entirely on what it’s made of. Some materials absorb more heat than others.
Some modern devices will report the temperature of something you point it at, but again, that depends on the material.
Some more scientific details please.
MrsRobinson 38 minutes ago
A court temperature of 69C ?????
I am very skeptical about this. This will cook your brain. Is this Celcius, and where was it measured?
Fact check please.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-19/australian-open-heat-policy-federer-djokovic-monfils/9342328
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2009: The Age: Roof debate no open-shut affair
The extreme heat policy was invoked at 1.45pm yesterday when the temperature reached 41.8 degrees.
The temperature in the tennis centre precinct later climbed to 44.2 degrees at 4.20pm.
There was no official reading of the temperature on centre court but it was estimated to be close to 60 degrees…
http://www.theage.com.au/news/sport/tennis/australian-open/roof-debate-no-openshut-affair/2009/01/28/1232818534327.html
69C equals 156.2F:
1997: Australian Open Hits the Roof as the Temperatures Soar
By ROBIN FINN
Though the tournament refuses to give the actual on-court temperature, Mary Joe Fernandez, a player not given to hyperbole, said it had been at least 130 degrees during her fourth-round defeat of Patty Schynder.
“The court surface is so hot it goes right through your shoes and through your socks,” said Fernandez, whose opponent needed intravenous treatment after their match. “You’re not seeing good tennis, you’re just seeing people trying to survive. I mean, people are passing out just watching; it’s just not worth it.”
http://www.nytimes.com/1997/01/21/sports/australian-open-hits-the-roof-as-the-temperatures-soar.html
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the stuff of legends:
18 Jan: GolfDigest: An Australian Open match was (foolishly) played in 156-degree temperatures yesterday
By Coleman Bentley
On New Year’s Eve 1967, with the temperature hovering around -13 (-48 if you count windchill), the Packers and Cowboys faced off in the what would soon become known as the Ice Bowl—the most extreme collision of sports and Mother Nature in human history. Or at least it was until Wednesday, when Gael Monfils and Novak Djokovic took the court for their Australian Open round of 64 matchup to find the temperature inside Rod Laver Arena an astonishing, egg-frying 156-DEGREES FAHRENHEIT…
Now, most humans have never experienced 156-degree temperatures, let alone chased a little green ball around in them for well over 90 minutes, so it’s tough to say exactly what each athlete was feeling, but something approximating hell is probably pretty close…
So is this the new benchmark for ridiculous show-must-go-on sports stupidity? We’re sure an Indian Premier League cricket match or some god-forsaken stage of the Dakar Rally has it beat, but for now we feel comfortable anointing this The Worst Sports Weather Ever (working title)…
https://www.golfdigest.com/story/an-australian-open-match-was-foolishly-played-in-156-degree-temperatures-yesterday
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Seems Turdballs big snowy battery idea might be an environmental catastrophe.
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It would make much more sense to build a real dam than to build a “water battery”. Then again what does one expect from a fool like Turnbull? Only thought(less) bubbles.
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in 2012, 35.8C was only considered to be about 40C on Rod Laver Arena!
2012: SMH: Walkover in the park: It’s no sweat for the world’s best
WITH the temperature at Melbourne Park reaching for 35.8 degrees, the on-court temperature in sun-blasted Rod Laver Arena surely heading above 40 degrees and the court surface hot enough to blister a foot, Novak Djokovic appeared cooler and cooler…
http://www.smh.com.au/sport/australian-open/walkover-in-the-park-its-no-sweat-for-the-worlds-best-20120117-1q4pq.html
18 Jan: ESPN: Players concerned with extreme heat at Aussie Open, but what’s the solution?
by Jerry Bembry
Djokovic and del Potro both won in four sets, but the bigger story was the extreme heat, which tournament officials said was recorded at 104 degrees at 5:30 p.m. at Rod Laver Arena.
About that 5:30 reading: That came when shade was beginning to cover the court area. You can bet the on-court reading earlier in the day — when play took place under direct sunlight — was even higher. (Officials said they had no earlier numbers to report.)
http://www.espn.com.au/tennis/story/_/id/22141091/players-concerned-extreme-heat-australian-open-solution
please explain the 69C, Tennis Australia.
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2009: UK Independent: Paul Newman: Djokovic melts in the Australian heat
The front page headline of yesterday’s Herald Sun screamed: “Heat wave hell.” Weather forecasters here are predicting five consecutive days above 40C for the first time since 1908…
By the time Djokovic quit two and a half hours into the match the air temperature topped 37C; on the court itself it is generally reckoned to be ***10 degrees hotter…
http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/tennis/djokovic-melts-in-the-australian-heat-1517718.html
2009: ABC: Reuters: Djokovic gets little sympathy for quitting
The on-court temperature at the Rod Laver Arena had soared above ***40 degrees Celsius but Djokovic won little support in a sport where players have often gone through the pain barrier in their quest for success…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-01-28/djokovic-gets-little-sympathy-for-quitting/275306
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did it all begin with Channel 7 commentators?
Twitter: Moments: This Australian Open court was almost too hot to play on
According to Channel 7 commentators, the ground on the Rod Laver Arena court in Melbourne reached a scorching 69 degrees Celsius (156 Fahrenheit) during a match between Novak Djokovic and Gael Monfils. It has prompted several people to question why the match wasn’t called off.
TWEET: #7TENNIS : It. Is. 69. Degrees. Celsius. On. Rod. Laver. Arena.
https://twitter.com/i/moments/953871439559471104
18 Jan: InternationalBusinessTimes: Australian Open 2018 heat: Players battling to remain upright, let alone play world class tennis
Temperatures at the Australian Open have reached 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) with reports of 69 degrees (156F) being measured on the court surface.
By David Sim
Melbourne Park is renowned for its unforgiving conditions in extreme heat. It’s supposed to be even hotter on Friday, with a forecast high of ***42 Celsius (108 Fahrenheit)…
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/australian-open-2018-heat-players-battling-remain-upright-let-alone-play-world-class-tennis-1655695
***if it hits 42C, will someone say it’s 160F on court?
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18 Jan: PedestrianTV: The Australian Open Court Temperature Hit 69 Degrees & Players Aren’t Coping
By Cam Tyeson
On Rod Laver Arena, the tournament’s premiere venue and the centrepiece of Melbourne Park, ***court-side thermometers are registering completely f***ed-up readings. At 3:30pm this afternoon, the surface temperature of the court was a staggering 69 degrees…
TWEET: 7Tennis: It. Is. 69. Degrees. Celsius. On. Rod. Laver. Arena.
2:30 PM – Jan 18, 2018
https://www.pedestrian.tv/sport/australian-open-court-temperature-69-degrees/
Reuters goes with 67C!
18 Jan: Reuters: Melanie Burton: Players and fans swelter in Melbourne, brace for worse on Friday
Players were handed ice towels to cool down as temperatures soared on the courts at Melbourne Park, reaching ***67 at Rod Laver Arena in what has become a right of passage for players in the first grand slam of the year…
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology expects temperatures to reach 42 in central Melbourne on Friday, but humidity would be too low to invoke the policy, organizers said…
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tennis-ausopen-temperature/players-and-fans-swelter-in-melbourne-brace-for-worse-on-friday-idUSKBN1F70R7
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Does anyone have any data on how long Tas Hydro can sustain yesterdays output until the water level gets to low ?
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Can anyone explain the current prices in Tas? Peak heat, and Tasmanians are paying other states to take their electricity?
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Just guessing, but maybe that’s what they offer to supply Tassie’s demand of 1170 MW in order to then make money on the Vic transfers? Tassie currently running 200 MW from Tamar Valley Gas at max capacity, with 1170 from Hydro in order to send 480 MW to Vic.
But then AEMO has the following confusing notice thaat perhaps implies that prices will be adjusted: An AEMO Intervention Event has been implemented by activating Reliability and Emergency Reserve Trader (RERT) to maintain the power system in a reliable operating state.
The AEMO Intervention Event commenced in the 1405 hrs dispatch interval and is forecast to apply until 2000 hrs 19/01/2018. AEMO declares all dispatch intervals during the AEMO Intervention Event to be intervention price dispatch intervals. The event is expected to affect dispatch quantities for intervention pricing purposes from the 1405 hrs dispatch interval on 19/01/2018.
Yesterday Tassie ended up with average price for the 24 hours of $160/MWhr versus $905/MWhr in Vic. Previous day $101 versus $98 in Vic. Very confusing. Electrons vary by State?
00
The National Electricity Rules stipulate a maximum spot price of $12,500 per MWh which is the market price cap (seems that may now be $14,200?) and a minimum spot price of minus $1,000 per MWh which is the market floor price. This negative market floor price allows generators to pay to stay online when the cost of staying online is lower than the cost of shutting down and re-starting their plants. For a renewable generator, staying online may also cost less than what generators receive from support mechanisms like the Renewable Energy Target scheme, plus their own costs.
So Hydro Tasmania bids -$74, but as it’s “renewable” power, Hydro Tas collects $85 through sale of their renewable energy certificates. Also it appears that Hydro Tas owns Basslink, so gets income when the undersea link is used.
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19 Jan: news.com.au: Extreme heat hits Australian Open as Melbourne swelters to near 40 degree temperatures
ROGER Federer would ‘back myself playing during the daytime’ and has downplayed suffocating heat as an Australian Open issue, insisting players are aware of the extreme conditions in Melbourne.
by Leo Schlink, Katre Salemme and Lauren Wood
Gael Monfils said he was “dying on the court for 40 minutes” as temperatures hit 39c and reflected court heat topped 69c…
Federer: We know it can be very hot here in Australia.”
“I remember the days when we had four days of 40 degrees in a row a few years back. Now we got two. Most of the guys now have to play in 30-plus degrees conditions”…
“Sure, I’m happy I played at nighttime. But like I said on court, I would back myself playing during the daytime also.
“Used to go to Dubai when it was 45. 38 seems almost
No.3 seed Garbine Muguruza, who suffered a shock straight sets loss on Rod Laver Arena before the Djokovic-Monfils match, said today’s conditions aren’t the worst she’s faced at Melbourne Park.
“No, I had a more toughest match under the heat previous years in Australian Open, but today was — it was hot, but I don’t think was the hottest day,” she said…
MELBOURNE PARK — HOUR BY HOUR
11am 32.5C
12pm 34.4c
1pm 35.7C
2pm 37.0C
3pm 37.9C
4pm 38.2c
5pm 38.8C
6pm 39.1C
ON COURT TEMPERATURE ROD LAVER ARENA AT 2.30PM- 69c
http://www.news.com.au/sport/tennis/extreme-heat-hits-australian-open-as-melbourne-swelters-to-near-40-degree-temperatures/news-story/6ec7a3d0ff1acbeeb1b5efa20ae8c096
30
less than an hour ago, TV commentators said it had reached 40C at the tennis; now they say the cool change has begun and it’s dropped to about 35C.
20
14.2K
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Anyone have any idea of what this market notice from the AEMO means .
Issued by Australian Energy Market Operator Ltd at 1500 hrs on 19 January 2018
CANCELLATION – ACTUAL NEGATIVE SETTLEMENT RESIDUES – VIC to SA – 19 January 2018.
Refer to market notice: 60848
AEMO has ceased taking action to minimize the further accumulation of negative settlement residues on the VIC to SA directional interconnector.
The negative residue constraint NRM_VIC1_SA1 ceased operating at 1500 hrs on 19 January 2018.
This is an AEMO autogenerated Market Notice.
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I do wish you would speak in whispers otherwise the looney left country wreckers over here on this side of the Tasman may hear you and their little too close together piggy eyes will light up!!
00
The zealots on Renew Economy were up in arms about the Loy Yang B trip on Jan 18th (dropping 500MW off the grid) but not one mention of WIND power’s contribution into the East Coast Grid dropping from 1,800MW (41% Capacity Factor) at Noon to 1,500MW (24% Capacity Factor) at 3PM and to 600MW (14% Capacity Factor) by 6PM.
Very poor contributions from the Total Installed Capacity of 4,360MW.
But it’s OK as the Hornsdale REALLY BIG BATTERY jumped in with a whopping 30MW for “over an hour”
No chance of highlighting this hypocrisy on Renew Economy as I’m still banned.
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Apologies – I meant to include this little gem from the Renew Economy article:
Wind and solar may vary their output according to weather conditions and the time of day, but these shifts are largely predictable.
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Aaaaahhh.
Should read 1,050MW by 3PM…….
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Doctors should see their Smartphones are kept fully charged up. It may be the only illumination they have when the mains fails.
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[…] have averaged less than $100 per megawatt hour. (Jo Nova saw this coming, had been tracking the summer peak electricity prices as they hit the peak, asked what the cost of the hot spikes would be,and explains why a few […]
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