Just another day with a grid on the edge
Adelaide and surrounds
It was only 200,000 “customers”, only for an hour or so in the middle of the night. But yet again the Great Green Experiment that is SA ran out of electricity. Olympic Dam (the largest uranium deposit in the world and fourth largest copper deposit) was not operating properly for four hours. A fault at the Victorian interconnector meant 220MW of load had to “shed” — a fancy term for throwing the switch so the whole system didn’t break. SA was “islanded” — cut off from the rest of the national grid for about 3 hours, and clearly it can’t make it on its own. Total power lost was about a fifth of the SA grid.
Remember, this has absolutely, definitely nothing to do with the last blackout or renewables says the SA Energy Minister:
Mr Koutsantonis said there was no way renewable energy generation in SA could be blamed for the loss of power.
Andrew Dillon from AusNet said the overnight outage had no link to factors that caused a recent state-wide blackout in SA, and this time was hindered by the timing of the maintenance work.
“There were some assets out of service for maintenance at that stage so unfortunately the fault couldn’t have come at a worse time,” he said.
If the interconnector had only broken during a windy, sunny day, it would have been fine, right? Just bad luck.
90% of SA windfarms were producing no electricity when the state needed it
TonyFromOz points out that wind farms were only generating at 6% of their rated capacity when the fault hit.
Wind power in South Australia was delivering 100MW of its (almost) 1600MW Nameplate, around 6.25% of total Capacity*. So, one turbine in every sixteen with it’s blades actually moving. Total Demand for South Australia at that time, even with almost everyone tucked up in bed asleep was 1150MW. Lucky this outage from Victoria (South Australia’s main electricity supplier) happened when it did, and not during the day with Total Demand up around 1500MW.
(This chart is was WA time. Sigh! So “21:00” was midnight Eastern Daylight Savings Time.UPDATED, if you see one black “subtotal line” and the graph starts at 15:00 you are looking at the updated AEST time new graph)
The SA Energy Minister thinks he can blame Victoria and BHP:
Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis said the problems were on the Victorian side of the border and “South Australia’s grid operated effectively as an island and load began to be restored within half an hour”.
He said BHP built back-up power at its mines across the world.
“Why they haven’t done so at Olympic Dam is a matter for them,” he said.
The SA Government’s message to investors is pretty clear: don’t expect SA to provide reliable electricity.
BHP CEO Andrew Mackenzie issued an urgent warning to policy-makers after the latest incident, which comes two months after the statewide blackout led to about two weeks of lost production at Olympic Dam.
“Olympic Dam’s latest outage shows Australia’s investability and jobs are placed in peril by the failure of policy to both reduce emissions and secure affordable, dispatchable and uninterrupted power,” he said in a statement.
“The challenge to reduce emissions and grow the economy cannot fall to renewables alone.
“This is a wake-up call ahead of the COAG meeting and power supply and security must be top of the agenda and urgently addressed.”
The incident also cut power to a Victorian smelter for about three hours.
If BHP wanted to make a coal fired ultra super critical plant nearby, it could probably sell electricity to South Australians at half what they currently pay, still make a profit, cut emissions (not that that matters) and have its own guaranteed supply. But the SA government won’t let it do that. If SA Customers want to buy that cheap electricity, the SA government won’t let them.
The only thing standing in the way of cheap, reliable electricity is the SA Government.
A South Australian glassblowing business says this will cost him about $10,000 to replace equipment broken by the blackout:
“Back in September we had 14 hours of outage. It did a lot of damage to my equipment,” Mr Vereker said.
“Now I had the same thing again last night and while we were back on in a few hours, that few hours of downtime does irreplaceable damage to our furnaces and to our production. Mr Vereker said it was the busiest time of year but he had to send three of his six staff home. He was concerned there might be more damaging blackouts during summer.
“I’d be out of business in six months time…”
We are so “looking forward” to when Victoria shuts the Hazelwood coal plant next April:
“Victoria’s outage put the Alcoa smelter near Portland offline for just over three hours, authorities said.”
Did that spot price hit $13,533 MW/hr from 1.30 – 2am last night? Apparently so. Source AEMO site.
…
The SA partial blackout happened at 1.16am AEDT (which means at 12:45am in SA).
h/t David B, redress, TonyfromOz.
* UPDATE: I had doubts about the 6% figure but Tony was right. The wind power across the whole eastern grid was working at 10-12% at the time. In SA it was a pathetic 6%.
It is timely to think about how many businesses have closed down and taken tens of thousands of jobs to other countries already, with a mass exodus around the timing of Labor’s carbon tax and renewable energy surcharge, renewable energy target, etc.
They include cement producers and aluminium smelters but the list is long and depressing, and adding to the problems of maintaing economic prosperity in our country.
And as our politicians continue along their international agenda of collapsing capitalism, the socialist objective admitted to by UN HCR’s Christian Figueres during October 2015, the vulnerability of this nation becomes more worrying by the year.
581
Watch the property market collapse.
Diminishing industry, dwindling jobs and exodus.
Uncertainty breeds the search to improve one’s circumstances.
The first State to adopt a Trumpian approach will kick over the traces, and maybe, just maybe, remove itself from the redistributive UN aligned Federation.
301
New tag :
#SA_Fail
That covers the whole state and an example of what will happens if the rest of Australia doesn’t drop kick ( metaphorically ) the extreme greens and their insane policies to the curb… and leave them there for garbage collection day…assuming the collection trucks aren’t electric ( ouch…)
40
No chance of this happening within the next 10 years.
Someone needs to break the hold of the print media & TV media. ABC & commercial stations keep the global warming propaganda flowing daily. Some are more subtle than others but it is relentless.
50
I read in an article in the Australian today written by an ANU professor that he said that to fight climate change, the Aust airforce should fuel their fighter planes with eucalyptus oil…….ha ha ha ha, seriously?
60
And now even that reliable Victorian power is becoming more expensive, and more unreliable.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-01/victorian-power-and-gas-prices-to-go-up/8082384
Cheers,
Dave B
160
And Alcoa in Portland Victoria was badly affected by the same outage.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-02/alcoa-curtails-production-at-portland-smelter/8085840
Cheers,
Dave B
30
Victoria: enjoying the clean energy mania………..
http://morningmail.org/victoria-enjoying-clean-energy-mania/#more-53175
10
The main problem for SA is coming in February, just a few weeks away. The looming power outage disaster can now no longer be avoided. A few weeks with no power in SA will result in many deaths. Loss of business will be very hard indeed but pales into insignificance if power is shut down for several weeks. No sewerage, no water, no fuel, no communications, no fresh food.
250
But the pinkos would be loving it….taking out a state that no one ( really ) cares about
The now mob never do anything on a large scale until they have tested it on a small scale first.
Australia’s greatest danger is the Communist economic “terrorists” hard at work inside the country….
30
Dang it….should read :
“The NWO mob….”
10
I hear Alcoa Portland was also affected and are now not running their second pot line. Could this be the result of the(un)reliable and (expensive) cheap power we now have in Eastern Australia???? Alcoa recently lost its subsidised power supply from Vic. Any volunteers for a group fairwell card for Alcoa Portland. It would seem that thinks really have to get bad in Australia before there might be an improvement.
60
Alcoa’s plant dates back to the 1960s/70s, and China has built up a metric cr@ptonne of capacity. It’s won’t take much to push the Alcoa smelter over the edge … it had been reviewed recently. It will reduce Victoria’s CO2 emissions… no doubt Labor will tout that as a massive win.
70
I wouldn’t be too concerned about the aluminium smelter – part of their supply contract is that they get a really good price, but are the first to be load-shed. Re-starting the smelter after a load-shed from cold does consume more electricity (obviously), but does not otherwise affect their yield.
20
Aluminium pot lines can be without power for about 2 hours if there is a tested restart plan. Beyond 5 hours the pots start to freeze and then it is very difficult to recover. Once frozen the aluminium has to be dug out and that typically involves destroying all the refractory lining of the pots. It is a labour intensive, time consuming, tedious and dirty process. It takes a few weeks before work can even start as the pots have to be cooled sufficiently to allow safe access.
Typically a potline freeze becomes a decision point for closure if production is marginal. The insurance money to cover the recovery can be diverted to closure closure costs.
40
“If BHP wanted to make a coal fired ultra super critical plant nearby, it could probably sell electricity to South Australians at half what they currently pay, still make a profit, cut emissions (not that that matters) and have its own guaranteed supply. But the SA government won’t let it do that.
The only thing standing in the way of cheap, reliable electricity is the SA Government.”
Copy to the Commonwealth Government of Australia and the States.
601
I recall that BHP wanted to build a coal fired power station at Olympic Dam, but had so many obstacles, such as having to build a certainly percentage of NON-VIABLES that it just wasn’t economic to do so.
This whole power problems should sheeted back wholly and completely to the juvenile, non-thinking submission of the SA Government to the Anti-CO2 agenda/scam.
483
It keeps coming back to socialism;
http://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/climate-change-scare-tool-to-destroy-capitalism/
210
Well by definition socialism and capitalism are enemies of each other so it shouldn’t be a surprise the article ha exposed the truth about the global warming hoax. What’s surprising is so many so called leaders of capitalism here are on the side of the socialists. Go figure. Are they wolves in sheep’s clothing or are they plain stupid?
240
Never assume malice when incompetence will do.
260
Incompetence in defense of unsupported dogma (and professional self-interest) is malice. Continued failure to see that is incompetent.
170
I’m sorry, why? I hear that old rag oft repeated with absolutely no supporting evidence countering human nature.
I say bull sheite
Malice should always be considered.
60
Simple – there are many more useful idiots than greedy liars.
20
An explanation I read when researching now deceased Canadian billionaire Maurice Strong, said to be the engineer of man-made global warming scare, was that his colleagues of very wealthy individuals (we know most of their names) are in bed with the socialists because they both want to collapse capitalism as we have known it. They want a managed and controlled form of capitalism on the Communist China model. Then award wages and conditions provided in around the world could be modified to the advantage of the employers, I assume a turn back to the early industrial age period but improved conditions, just not as expensive for businesses as now.
60
So you mean a globe full of slaves who get randomly executed and their families billed for the bullet?
20
I don’t see how that is surprising. Most leaders of capitalism are socialist. Pronounced, “Social-ist”. They belong to the social club of leaders, and they all play by the rules of the club, in order to stay in the club, and attend all of the club activities.
Trump elbowed Clinton out of the way, as he went through the door, to sign-up for the club. She is now not allowed to be social, and is trying to get in through the kitchen door.
Simple, when you know what the objectives of the game are.
10
I think they are sheep in wolves clothing
10
If SA keeps blaming Victoria, perhaps Victoria should just pull the circuit breaker permanently, especially after Hazelwood closes and then see how well renewables work.
400
Alternatively, the next time the interconnect is switched off they leave it off for 24 hours, then each subsequent time they extend it an extra 24 hours. When it gets to about a week they might get the message.
270
When the wind wouldn’t blow
And the ship wouldn’t go,
It took Arter the Farter to start her.
50
when the wind don’t blow
and the sun don’t shine
the lights don’t glow………
10
Gee, you must be as old as me!
10
When the wind blows from behind
… it blows my mind
00
It really is time for Turnbull to get off his behind and do something. I see that Germany is now moving away from nuclear and building new coal fired power stations and still meet their emissions targets. Why can’t we do it and stop this mad indulgence with renewables that if left to continue will wreck this nation? Do all our leaders really hate Australia so much they want to destroy it? I really can’t believe how out of touch they all are, Turnbull included.
390
I’d much rather we build new coal fired power stations and not meet our emissions targets thanx!
602
Yes I would too but in the interest of compromising we need to work with everyone else and get past the various hurdles. The smartest thing any PM can do right now, possible so far this Century is to package a plan that will allow us to build those new coal fired power stations while at the same time still meeting our emission requirements, if not better them. It’s a win win. This is the strategy in general Trump is using now that he has won the election. Otherwise, we might as well all give up and wait for the crash and burn scenario to come about, which is what I truly believe will happen if we don’t boost our economy and start reducing our national debt real soon.
100
I don’t like compromising with warmistas.
If they are Wrong, why compromise?
332
Yep . . compromising is what got us in this mess in the first place.
91
NO COMPROMISES WITH GREEN COMMUNIST NUTJOBS !
21
Correct – this is why the DMZ in Korea still exists….
10
If we don’t compromise up front to smash the stalemate then we will have to go through the crash and burn scenario. It’s that simple. That’s the choice we have. Crash and burn or come up with a plan that gets us moving back to a more sensible position. I think Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal” needs to become mandatory reading by all. Politics is the art of compromise.
50
I read you post differently, PeterS.
Over the recent past, Germany has increased emissions due to winding back nuclear (and gas) and replacing with coal and renewables. This has understandably caused a rise in their emissions and put a very serious dent in their longer term targets according to this report.
My point was that we have already over compromised to reach this position.
Perhaps what you’re saying is we should revert to Tony Abbots strategy of heralding the meeting of targets and thus leaving the green blob no base from which to argue. That tactic seemed to be working.
That’s more or less what Donald Trump is saying . . that existing energy sources have a place in the mix. The big difference with Trumps position is that he’ll happily cancel Obama’s Paris deal and face little significant opposition.
By contrast, Malcolm Turnbull has already signed the Paris deal and thus, I think we’ve already gone too far and made a retreat all the more difficult.
The other issue is that it’s the states who build the power plants, hence SA.
Labour in VIC is following suit and the same is projected for QLD.
40
You cannot compromise with a religious zealot what makes years you think you can compromise with these people
40
A lot of analysis on the effects and impact, all of them negative to extremely negative in effect and on emissions which renewables are supposed to reduce, of the imposition of renewables such as wind and solar into a national grid has been done in Germany and in many other locations such as Spain, Ireland, now Scotland and the UK and across the Atlantic in the USA and Canada .
Nowhere is there any evidence presented outside of a very large amount of arm waving to hide the facts, to support the claimed ability of wind and solar to get within bulls roar of running a state and /or a national grid power system without a huge investment in fossil fuel fired back up generators.
Nor for a renewable energy dominant system to provide electricity at a cost less than at least double that of the aforesaid renewable energy system especially when the renewable energy subsidies are included in the costs of producing renewable wind and solar energy
Nor any evidence at all been presented outside of vigorous arm waving from proponents, that any renewables in a straight out unsubsidised competition with all the variously fossil fuelled and nuclear systems powered system, would the renewables stand a snow balls chance in hell of competing against the fossil fuelled generators on price, reliability, predictability and economic life.
Even today, the only way that renewable energy can even come into considerations as a supplier of electrical energy is the extraordinarily legislated requirement for grid operators world wide in that they have to take the output of Renewable energy generators first and over and above any other sources of energy whenever that Renewable energy is available.
Removing that requirement alone from the grid operators and giving the grid operators and customers the right to choose the power supply source according to price and reliability [ which the British are now closely considering using an ongoing sealed auction system for short term electrical supply to the grid operators ] would likely cripple and destroy the wind and solar scammers especially if as the UK High Court has just ruled, Governments can cut and remove subsidies as they wish as subsidies are a matter for the Government and not a right of the recipients to those subsidies on a permanent basis .
Spain in fact now has a requirement that both wind and solar generators have to predict and provide the amounts of power they will supply to Spain’s grid 24 hours in advance of supplying that power.
The power generators, all of them, are allowed a 10% variation each side of the prediction but have very heavy financial fines if they fail to supply the power they have tendered for some 24 hours previously.
——————–
This following post from Pierre Gosselin’s NoTricksZone blog should be mandatory reading by every politician who is in any way considering supporting the introduction of wind and solar renewable energy into any Australian grid system.
Analysis: Adding More Solar, Wind Power Increases Dependence On Fossil Fuels, ‘Doubles’ CO2 Emissions
Some quotes from the NTZ post [ 24 / 11 / 2016 ]
72
OK OK! Then let’s go with the crash and burn scenario. It’s what I always believed will happen anyway. Stock up on lots of popcorn as it will be fun to watch as long as you are not too close to the destructive elements.
20
Reality has absulutely no respect for “97% consensus scientific opinions,” glued together with public research funds.
241
Down with reality!
10
These new submarines are looking further and further away.
340
This is a Commonwealth priority.
The Commonwealth must mandate despatchable power for defence enterprises.
If SA is not prepared to allow them, then the Defence power in the Constitution should be invoked and the necessary power stations built.
221
The submarine project will be a disaster, even if SA had cheap and reliable power and well-behaved unions. We need to cancel the project and buy off the shelf nuclear subs from elsewhere. The current project will be undeliverable in any reasonable time or cost frame.
212
“The submarine project will be a disaster”
Can anyone name a Turnbull project that HASN’T been a disaster?
221
Project “Goldman Sachs Payback” has been going along swimmingly.
110
I happened to notice the power failure during the night and I knew it would be dead calm across much of the state, so I’m not surprised to see this posting. I looked out the window and it was all black like last time, except for some Christmas lights on the fence across the road, probably solar-powered battery backup type.
This time it’s excuse No.42, maintenance to blame.
371
The old CRT televisions used to run on around 300 watts and plasma screens around the same. Now we have mobile phones/Iphones that use less than a watt of electricity. Why do we need mainstream grid connected power anyway?? Seems like power stations are overkill with such efficient whitegood devices. the iphone and laptop still work in a power failure.
324
The christmass light use LED’s and are another example of our diminishing electricity use. I don’t know what all the fuss is about.
319
Electronic Communications and the internet and its associated data storage and analysis systems, the Digital Economy now use approximately 10% of all the electric power generated globally.
So any talk of reducing power through electronics is bunk as the proliferation of electronic systems plus communication systems plus immense hot running data storage and analysis systems, the so called Digital Economy has negated entirely the claimed reductions of power use by the public.
Any reductions in power use in the public sphere that are pointed to almost invariably can be seen as a direct outcome of unwanted and significantly reduced economic activity; i.e. factories, industries and etc closing upend shutting down and / or leaving for better catered facilities somewhere else.
Time; The Surprisingly Large Energy Footprint of the Digital Economy
150
So your life spins around shiny screens of entertainment, and on the basis of your experience, everyone else should just shut up and enjoy it. Eh?
Is that what you’re saying?
Is there any life beyond the domestic? Does your locality have the perfect temperature? Does food not rot there? Do you have pure water easily accessible without pumping? Of course you don’t drive do you, you don’t have fuels pump around the nation just so that people like you have it in a convenient place?
Tell me, where is your utopia?
191
funny one Mike. What does your phone use that 1 watt to connect to so you can talk with other people if there is no grid?
111
Good Gawd Gee! Your first clear skeptical comment!
60
I’m all for it. We now need efficient tea kettles; efficient vacuums; efficient electric stoves; efficient electric heaters; efficient electric drills.
The EU is already mandating tea kettles. I am not saying efficient, since the efficiency has always been 100% (more on that below). The idea is to make you wait for your tea 10 minutes or more, hoping that you would ultimately consume less tea.
The only way to improve the efficiency of a tea kettle is to build a heat pump in it. Maybe EU big brains already have a cousin with a heat-pump tea kettle.
31
Jokes aside Curious George. In my experience i once created an ultra efficient kettle by using a vacuum flask, stainless steel tube and a quartz halogen light globe..
In this design, beyond anything currently available in this solar system, 🙂 i used a single 50 watt quartz halogen globe which was placed inside a thin 10mm stainless steel tube sealed at one end. The 50 watt globe is connected with a good high temperature wire so it can be connected to 12 volt power.
The stainless steel tube assembly containing the quartz halogen globe was then inserted through a hole that was drilled through the cap at the top of the vacuum flask so that the end of the stainless steel tube containing the quartz halogen globe could be submerged in the water inside the vacuum flask.
This highly advanced and energy efficient improved kettle is able to boil water using 50 watts of electricity, approximately enough for a big cup of tea in around 5 minutes.
I need to do this experiment again as i did it more than 20 years ago. Not sure if had more than 2 cups of water at the time.
Heat pump would be even more efficient for sure.
14
I may have used a 35 watt halogen globe at the time come to think of it.
04
Mike, that’s a great observation. The limits on a tea kettle power actually save water! I did not notice.
00
you are the optimist!
I think the idea is that in 10 minutes a few will die hence consuming no more.
Save water? From what!?
30
The perils of drinking.
50
The limit is on heat energy escaping the kettle. The kettle is ultra insulated, hence the use of a vacuum flask
The same experiment/observation using a 30 watt halogen lamp inside an uninsulated kettle never reaches boiling point due to thermal losses.
15
Are you sure they continue to work? Cell phones rely on various electronic devices especially those in the hubs which transfer calls between cells.
20
Just to be clear… Mike was making a joke.
14
But you were not.
30
Thanks Gee Aye: But wasn’t joking about the ultra insulated kettle experiment using a 30 watt halogen light as an electrical heating element.
04
I understood that. Very important work. Keep it up.
To Mark D. Yes I was… look at how many gullible upticks I got 😉
25
Sorry Mike but you’re comments are just light years off the mark! Back in your box son quick as you like, or get serious!!
GeoffW
40
Appology accepted Geoffrey.
Consider the Lilly’s.
00
Light years into the future perhaps, but just a few years (relative to light years in the future) into the past and we should find a kind of clue as to how life evolved with great gusto without complaints about the lack of energy, or a kind of pathological melancholy, a lack of fiscal stimulus etc. And it did so with every kind of adaptation which somehow increased its beauty and mind boggling complexity
Matthew 6:28 is the twenty-eighth verse of the sixth chapter of the Gospel of Matthew in the New Testament and is part of the Sermon on the Mount. This verse continues the discussion of worry about material provisions.
In the King James Version of the Bible the text reads:
And why take ye thought for raiment?
Consider the lilies of the field, how they grow;
they toil not, neither do they spin:
“spin” like wind turbines and steam turbines, the propellers powering drones etc i suppose…..
01
The only way we are going to find our place in the scheme of things is to play the game without destroying the players……flora fauna etc would be a proof that we have it right.
01
What fools ye mortals be.
90
Darwin himself would have pointed out that it is survival of the fittest or, in this case, the survival of those with diminished electricity demands as a result of advanced whitegood devices..
It is pretty clear here we are going. Most modern mobile phones have a ultra energy efficient built in light/torch.
218
Mike,
How much power is used ensuring that your very expensive flashlight/torch is more useful that just that one feature?
A world in a rechargeable gadget of dubious worth and VERY high cost.
160
Ok, ok then, if it is fire that you want then you would need two iphones. By rubbing them together fire is produced. One would not be enough, although in saying that there is already one mobile phone that is the very latest that is reported to be able to produce fire as well.
68
“reported to be able to produce fire as well.”
Is it built by Tesla?
163
Why bother as Samsung’s new feature offers heat as well as light!
Apparently the feature is available to all modern phones if you have a nail and a hammer.
150
Maybe, but at some point you have to recharge it…….
That takes a power point connected to a generating source, or a pre-energised power pack device (charged from a generating source). If your power generating source runs on renewballs then you’ve got to hope the sun shone or the wind blew at the right time etc.
Then we come to the actual manufacturing of your expensive torch with phone attached, the mined minerals, the transport thereof, the smelting and shaping of the metals, the petrochemicals for the plastics involved, the transport etc. etc.
Yeah, a smart phone with a little LED “torch” is a great leap forward……..
110
Mike, I think you missed your /sarc tags
30
How many nuclear power stations would be needed to supply all of the needs of South Australia?
After all, Uranium is mined at Olympic Dam SA
152
None. New generation coal fired power stations are better, cheaper and more reliable. Germany has now realised that.
271
Switzerland realized, by popular vote, quite the opposite.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/greens-given-geography-lesson-as-swiss-reject-fukushima-induced-nuclear-panic/
100
Which is all well and good but by the time the industry moves out SA will be able to run its entire economy on a 2.5 KW domestic petrol generator.
Last one to leave turn the lights off please…. zzzzt, Oops, don’t bother
60
You don’t get a lot of tidal waves in Switzerland.
20
Not sure but there is a concept of truck portable small modular nuclear reactors which are prefabricated and defined as less than 300 MW electrical power output. A number of these might be suitable for solving SA’s problem of expensive and unreliable windmill power.
90
Well sort of. Russia uses a variety of these, such as the 9K720 Iskander nuclear missile 🙂 Seriously though, I doubt very much any state government would allow portable nuclear reactors, if they exist to be transported at will on our roads. You might as well ask for nuclear reactors to be built, and that’s not going to happen for a very long time, if ever.
20
Goldman & Sachs, M.Turnbull and other politicians, man-made global warming climate change con, UN IPCC, several multi-billionaires and fellow travellers in the wealth creation business, international socialism.
110
Yes but the mystery is why such supposedly very intelligent people are hell bent on wrecking our economy? I know there are various conspiracy theories but I rarely believe in them. Perhaps they are just not intelligent after all and just plain stupid, out of touch with reality and thick headed.
110
I like to add that I found out while working at various large companies the management in general are stupid, out of touch with reality and think headed and often so is the CEO. SO it’s not unexpected to see even PMs have the same bad attributes. The problem I see though is the system is broken when we can’t elect the right sort of people, or more likley we have too many voters who are equally stupid, out of touch with reality and thick headed so we end up with the government we deserve. I very much believe the latter is closer to the truth.
240
PeterS, maybe all it takes is a cabal of the dedicated and a mass of the ‘thick headed’?
Browse the UN post-2015 sustainable development Agenda, or for that matter, the UN Urban Agenda, Habitat III and come back and say you don’t think there’s a ‘conspiracy’.
Crucially, education in critical thought was eliminated from the education system a couple of generations or more ago, and likely replaced on how to be a model citizen.
Consensus is a replusive buzz word betraying failure.
Skepticism is deeply unfashionable – that ol’ nonsense until proved otherwise.
There appears however, nascent hope with Trump. The economic imperative Trumps all. And that’s very, very fashionable just now. Economic sustainability is key. Without it the swamp is, well, just a fetid, rotting swamp.
140
Peter, the problem is that we do not have the right people to vote for – our choices are terrible. As much as I admire the resilience and determination of Pauline Hanson, I really don’t think she is the answer, although she might be a catalyst for change. I believe Cory Bernardi will form his own party, based on his Australian Conservative organisation. He might be Trump-like in that he may have access to non-politician, non career civil servants for heads of departments and his MPs. The ALA have gone quiet, but an amalgamation between Bernardi, Hanson and the ALA could be a force with which to reckon. Here’s hoping.
20
Peter they have been brainwashed into thinking a certain way, its up to us to set them straight. A balanced media would have a devastating effect on all those true believers and leave the politicians with mud on their faces.
160
I reckon it’s going to be interesting to see how the next federal election plays out.
There were many posts here about dissatisfied ‘delcons’ and mood of the electorate has moved further since Malcolm scraped home after his double dissolution election.
I don’t get the impression Malcolm has sniffed the winds of change with One Nation and Donald Trump hot on the heels of BrExit.
If he only knew . . .
90
Talcum thinks he’s immune from the Trump Effect.
I see the Coalition winning the next election comfortably, because of new infrastructure (especially transport) in rural and regional areas.
Its the Trump Push.
30
Yes a balanced media would be nice but what would be even better is a truth media where no lies and fake stories are published, and if any are published the people responsible are put on trial and if found guilty are sent in prions for 6 months.
10
Another day, another blackout for SA.
Jay Weatherill, the soon to be ex-Premier of SA, is continuing to push his idea of a nuclear waste dump despite opposition from the public. This seems to be the only future source of revenue they can find. Industry has given up and the few larger concerns must be thinking about departing; indeed I cannot but wonder what was said privately by BHP after the last blackout, something like “3 strikes and we are out?”
Unfortunately for SA the way out of this mess is impossible. A new USC coal fired power station at Whyalla (deep water port) for BHP etc. would be stymied by the first rank status of wind power, so the coal fired station would get all the problems of the old ones as their time of profitable output is cut down, forcing their cost of output up. The same applies to nuclear and CCGT power stations. At least this time the SA authorities arranged for much of the gas fired CCGT to be operating.
Future industries for SA will be candle making, unicorn breeding and residential cave decorating. The surplus population will have to relocate to NSW or QLD, although the latter choice depends on the present Premier there being deposed.
281
Don’t get my hopes up by using phrases like “Jay Weatherill, the soon to be ex-Premier of SA”. I started to reach for the champagne…
but then I wondered…Is there anyone in SA who would be capable of reversing the damage caused by years of Labor incompetence?
80
No.
Jay Weatherill will go by the middle of 2017 (probably sooner), either by his party voting him out or him deciding to abandon the sinking ship (which will be well and truly water logged by then) and taking a long holiday with his retirement benefits in somewhere with reliable electricity.
Judging by the latest waffle from the Leader of the Opposition (?) there is little possibility of the situation improving for years as everybody seems to be in denial and expecting John Frum (see Cargo Cult) to arrive from the East with loads of goodies. Like other deluded natives their hopes will prove delusions.
70
Never mind the largest uranium deposit in the world and fourth largest copper deposit. Never mind Whyalla Wipeout.
This lot will only take electricity seriously when they can’t light their next Writers’ Festival, Women’s Gathering or Cellar Door Fest. Now that would be like shooting Bambi. Not that the crow-muncher elites would blame Big Green, but at least they’d be compelled to think like humans are supposed to do rather than just cogitate, teachify and commentate to no effect.
321
A well-timed blackout at Adelaide Oval would do it, just as the Crows are gaining momentum to draw level with Collingwood with ten minutes to go.
250
Crows and Pies…Is there a way they could both lose?
Maybe we’ll declare a forfeit in favour of the Pies if one of their child supporters calls Peter FitzSimons a gorilla.
90
Collingwood vs The Crows.
Peter McKenna got permission to drive over to Adelaide because after the game, he had to visit relatives in the Barossa.
The Collingwood bus with all the players on board broke down at Boredertown , so at Siren time for the start of the game, only Peter McKenna was available to take the field for the Mighty Magpies, the only Collingwood player.
The bus was finally repaired and arrived at the ground just in time to play the last Quarter.
Luckily, Collingwood was only one point behind!
Tony.
110
Tom,
I would be interested to see figures for maintenance costs of these windmills compared to say a good modern coal generation plant. I wonder how this ‘$maintenance_cost/MW_produced’ looks.
I can not believe that maintaining many windmills instead of a coal plant would be cheaper.
Certainly as windmills age the maintenance cost will rise significantly, off-shore wind more so.
Would you know were these figure can be obtained?
110
That should be address to TonyfromOz, and not self referencing — sorry…
30
As and outsider, the availability of essential services, like electricity, in South Australia, is starting to look more and more like the availability of essential services, like electricity, in Soviet Russia, in the depths of the Khrushchev years.
290
Well that’s partly because the ALP and Greens here and the old communist Soviet Union have a lot in common. They are both of the extreme left with Marxist and Stalin ideologies. We in fact many lefties here who treat Stalin like a hero and marvel at his so much they would love to see someone like him become our leader. It’s really sickening and if it ever did happen I would leave the country immediately. The irony now is Russia today is more and more like what a Western Christian country used to be like.
211
Essential service, TWO things governance
must do: ensure the country’s energy source
and ensure defence of the realm from external threat.Sth Australia, fail one and re building
Oz submarine fleet, fail two – a failed state.
Send the sub contract elsewhere!
140
Exactly!! There are millions of subcontractors in au
110
It’s a strategy thing, serf. We’ll be the only power in the world with an all-diesel sub fleet…sometime before 2070. Our enemies’ grandchildren will be totally baffled by these sinister reproduction-antiques. Although…
Taking into account Adelaide unions, it might be our enemies’ great grandchildren who get baffled by our French oilers.
140
The mouse that roared – eventually, mosomoso.)
60
I live in SA, and I agree with you. 🙁
Unfortunately the leader of the opposition is a whining little useless toe rag, so we have a choice between tweedle-dum and tweedle-dumber.
GRRR.
60
‘The Night before Christmas.’
…Not wishing the good folk of
South Austalia ill, but if I was
one of you I’d be cooking that
Xmas turkey early.
40
Isn’t it strange that the ‘Green Renewable Power’ state with the largest uranium deposits buys some/most of its power from a state still using brown coal generation.
I wonder if the irony of the situation has penetrated any pollies down south?
210
What I find ridiculous is that all the fashionable causes right now, including feminism, decarbonization and pathological altruism, are all without any serious moral standing. Let’s be absolutely clear: virtue signalling is expensive and damaging.
241
What a delightful oxymoron, and so excruciatingly accurate.
The indelible mark of cognitive dissonance, enthusiastically expressed by a true believer. The relaxed juxtaposition of superior moral aspiration to abject moral depravity over a pleasant Frappuccino, served by a pompous waiter in the warm sunshine, while sitting comfortably under a sun umbrella with the background murmur of pedestrians and vehicles. A relaxed Conversational dispensation of economic ruination and impoverishment from the teetering peak of what became a vacuous civilisation.
160
Crikey Manfred, that’s pretty damn eloquent.
I would have relied on the tried and true . . “fiddle while Rome burns” line myself. 😉
110
It was late. In vino veritas.
And yep Raven, less is indeed more at times!
(BTW, it was landed in moderation?)
40
Nah, Manfred . . I was having a go at me, not yourself.
Your piece was well written and I’m quite familiar with the morning coffee scene in South Melbourne.
One can almost hear the bustle of people on their way to work trying to navigate the seven thousand dollar bikes and BMW X5’s parked cheek by jowl at the corner cafe with their owners frittering away a couple of hours, iPads on table, before their first Uni. lecture at 2:00 PM.
80
Karim,
“virtue signalling is expensive and damaging.” Well it depends on your perspective. For many I know virtue signalling and agreeing to the whole leftie panoply of beliefs are a requirement for continuing employment especially in education, science, the helping professions (medicine, nursing, counselling), government positions. Not to virtue signal and believe would lead to much worse personal finances. The fact that we all end up paying for it is irrelevant when your mortgage and university fees need paying.
10
What did socialists use before they used candles?
Electricity.
350
+1.000.000
50
It appears there is a competition to find which state or country will be the first to have blackouts on a regular basis. There are plenty of competitors: Scotland, the UK, many other EU countries, California, for starters. All because of the greenblob with its obsession for “tackling climate change” with useless renewables.
230
What needs to be realised here is that South Australia is the second smallest consumer (by State) of all the States in Australia, with only Tasmania consuming less, at just 4.5%
The whole State of South Australia only consumes around 6% of the total power consumption for Australia.
If they cannot run that small total on Wind, just what does it say for the larger States.
And make no mistake here, when that Victorian interconnector dropped off line, and there was only 100MW of Wind, just what did they expect to happen?
All this at 1AM. What if it had have been during normal working hours.
Imagine working on the top floor of a high rise, and having to leave the building (now with no internal air supply) via the stairwell.
How many workers were late for work when their bedside clock radio failed to go off.
Watch the pollies scrambling with the ‘party meme’ that this had nothing whatsoever to do with wind power.
Tony.
521
Ahh tony it was an unprecedented failure they don’t count remember .
90
The whole of the State of South Australia consumes about the same total electrical power as, umm, Brisbane.
The whole of the State of South Australia consumes around half the power of Melbourne.
The whole of the State of South Australia consumes just less than half the power of Sydney.
Black any of those cities out and watch the anarchy which follows.
Just less than one third of the total power consumption for the whole of Australia is consumed in those three cities alone.
You can perhaps run a private home on solar panels.
You need REAL electrical power to run a city, and that means 24/7/365, not on a part time basis that wind power provides.
Tony.
120
Definition of a “Masochist”
A Tasmanian who moves to South Australia.
321
Definition of an extreme Sadist, a person that won’t beat a Masochist……
50
Amazing that in UK & France
The normal power supplies are stretched
Wind & Solar not delivering!
Look at UK 1st
Gridwatch UK
Then have a gander at France
Gridwatch France
Both countries are at their absolute limit
A South Australia catastrophe but in a European Scale, waiting to happen!
BOOM
BOOM
190
Wind/solar is irrelevant, if I recall some 2% of base load.
The problem is the widespread shut down of older coal fired power generation without any replacement capacity.
A prolonged cold winter should complete the job Brexit started in the UK and the current Marine Le Penn movement in France.
Then we need to speedily move to defund all UN non-core activities, ie. social(ist) and environmentalism, UN ECOSOC.
120
People can die during power failures if they are on a CPAP machine.
“The possibility of patient suffocation during a CPAP power failure”
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0194599804011623
120
The collateral damage of green virtue signaling.
111
Sue the electricity suppliers. They will put pressure on the governor
80
Can’t sue if they are dead. Though the family could do so it won’t bring someone back to life.
10
The more often this happens in SA, the better.
Isn’t that a sick statement Mr Red Thumb?
Well, the sooner a few people die in SA because of this wind power fiasco, the better.
Yes, that statement is even sicker.
But it’s the only way the dumb buggers running the Western World economies will wake up.
161
It may just be a question of how much longer it takes for enough voters to get the message that their power supplies are right now being degraded beyond the point of the safety margin.
If they don’t then throw out the culprits they will only have themselves to blame for the inevitable consequences i.e. ongoing power supply problems and failures.
181
I hear the new license plate in SA will have
South Australia – a state of blackout
121
Or the completed Victorian one
“Anice stste to be from”
51
They already have the right one Victoria – The garden state
You’ll need that garden to grow your food, since refrigerators and stoves will soon be banned or a least inoperative.
50
South Australians deserve the mess there in they voted for it at more than one election , I’d suggest Weatherill and the labor communista cronies get re-elected next election because there aren’t enough people in this state with an IQ higher than their shoe size .
Honestly who gives a rats bottom what happens in this backward state it’s too late for them they’re doomed to fate they asked for and kept wanting more .
What we need to do is get the message in the other states , Labor and the greens are not your friends and the Libs nowadays can’t work out which of the two they want to be most like .
120
“BHP built back-up power at its mines across the world.” Yes, in third world countries, which is what South Australia has become.
261
Excellent point!
90
Jo addresses this within her base post:
“If BHP wanted to make a coal fired ultra super critical plant nearby, it could probably sell electricity to South Australians at half what they currently pay, still make a profit, cut emissions (not that that matters) and have its own guaranteed supply. But the SA government won’t let it do that. If SA Customers want to buy that cheap ”
Looks like that makes SA the least sensible of third world countries…
Cheers,
Dave B
80
Correct. Mine was just a direct response to the absurd statement by the Energy Minister, blaming BHP for their lack of foresight, that they should have planned for the contingency that the Energy Minister would take the state back to the Dark Ages.
70
I suppose Adelaide people stuck in elevators at 2am should have known it was risky to get in. People whose home dialysis machines stopped should have thought ahead. People who bought electric bicycles, cars, lap tops and alarm systems should have known the power could be off randomly and indefinitely. People waiting at airports for the lights to come should have driven. People who had collisions at intersections with no traffic lights should have stayed off the road, just in case. Women who were pregnant should have avoided pregnancy before lights went in the hospital nine months later. Where does it end, blaming people and businesses for the irrational, thoughtless and irresponsible actions of a government?
50
The Energy Minister (and Treasurer) specialises in the absurd.
The problem is not building a power station but in the disruptive effects of wind power. (see my comment No.10).
A coal fired power station (or nuclear) is set up to operate roughly 90% of the time. It has to operate for roughly 80% to clear its costs. Thus it can supply electricity for $30 per MWh year after year and make a profit.
Wind disrupts this and the power station has to run 90% (to provide backup) but can only sell electricity for 50 – 60% of the time, so its costs have to be divided over less output i.e. its selling price has to increase to about $60 per MWh.
Wind is subsidised by a REC which sell at $85-90 per MWh. It costs $100-120 per MWh to produce, but it makes money if it sell at $30-40 per MWh, undercutting the coal fired station, so wind always sells unless the grid collapses.
So nobody is going to build a proper power station in SA while the wind turbines are running there especially when the Premier and Treasurer grant more licenses for wind farms. SA will have to rely on transmission from other States except that Dopey Dan has stuffed up the supply through the only interconnector.
The interconnector to NSW, which the SA Labor Government has been going to build since 2002, will take years to build esp. as SA is bankrupt, and who would want to deal with them? So South Australia will continue to have blackouts and be a warning to other States with Premiers smart enough to heed the warning. (That excludes Vic and Qld for a start).
50
What is also obvious from the comments is that at 6%, the windmill operators have learned that they do not need to chase every puff of wind. They make money even when turned off.
30
Last time, too much wind. This time, not enough wind. Can they not see the weakness in the system they have created? For South Australia, the days of electricity on demand seem to be numbered. Perhaps they should visit Burkino Faso, and see how the people there cope with that problem.
151
I must admit I became tired of writing to various News Ltd publications forecasting SA going down the Spanish road with “renewables” and ending up with 26% adult unemployment.
Now we are well on the way.
The level of incompetency and cronyism in the SA Labor government is beyond staggering. The little A-G, a Mr Rau, decided wind turbines could be placed just 1 km from residences; anything goes as long as the demands of the mates are met and the pipeline to the subsidy vault is kept full and flowing. Without that parasitism, the game is over.
(And now it’s payback time; he demands to be made an SC, with almost laughable qualifications.)
130
Open borders is the answer.
The unemployed can start walking to their next job. Eventually they may make it to China or may be even Africa. /sarc
60
WOW.. no wonder the pseudo-green scammers like the subsidy market so much.
Last year, Drax power station got paid £450 in subsides to burn USA wood pellets in the UK.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/drax-paid-450-million-in-subsidies-last-year/
62
error..
paid £450 MILLION in subsides
72
I wonder how much it would have earned if it had just burned coal or gas instead of chopping down USA forests and shipping them across the Atlantic?
80
The odds are shortening that the UK will suffer a serious blackout this NH winter, clearly an act of dog.
http://www.thegwpf.com/winter-power-crunch-fears-as-uk-france-cables-severed-during-storm/
100
France -> UK interconnect down
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/12/01/capacity-problem-looms-as-main-uk-interconnector-damaged/
This should be fun !!! Unless you are old and live in the UK !
112
My mother is in her mid-90s and living in an all-electric flat in the North of England. She is ‘all there’ mentally and not at all impressed by the goings-on of our dear career politicians. One she does respect is John Redwood.
I keep my fingers crossed for her well-being during her last years, not to mention the rest of the family living near her.
30
Its quite frosty over there at the moment, but the UK maybe spared the worst of this NH winter, whereas North Asia and the USA are going to get a taste of climate change in action.
Anthony Watts received an ‘alert call’ from Dr Roger Pielke Snr:
” … cannot recall last time I have seen such a cold anomaly forecast across almost entire USA.”
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2016/12/conus-814temp-new.gif
30
But in Britain wind power will rescue the situation supplying 0-4GW as and when it is not needed. That’ll sorta help the 58.8GW+ consumer demand needed every evening.
80
To add insult to injury they are surrounded by wind turbines where my mother lives.
20
Here’s some reading to comfort her – at least she’s not a bit further north and in Scotland
http://euanmearns.com/blackout-the-sequel/
20
oh dear, “clearly an act of dog.”
I hope you aren’t “Staying up all night wondering if there really is a dog.”
40
Late enough to risk an O/T
https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2016/11/30/on-leadership-brexit-trump-the-new-politics-and-what-dreams-my-come/
90
I just got finished reading that Pointman article before I came here. It is NOT off topic.
60
Thanks…it’s a great article by Pointman.
30
OK! personal declaration;
I have very close family relatives in Adelaide plus quite a few friends across SA.
In fact I could possibly say that through my life I have had more personal business and family and church connections in Adelaide than I have had in Melbourne.
So I say go easy on the people of South Australia. There are some very good and decent people there who believe me are far more p*****ed off about what is going on in SA politics than you and I as they are the direct recipients of every bit of ongoing political stupidity that SA politicians can possibly dream up.
The other very serious political problem in SA is the blatant Labor gerrymander where if my memory is somewhere near the mark, the Liberals / conservative parties need to win more than 53% of the vote to even get a sniff at power.
South Australia in the late 1800’s and into the first part of the 20th century led the world in the mechanisation of agriculture.
South Australians and Australian farmers and farm inventors from the first quarter of the 19th century through to the early 20th century were about 10 to 20 years ahead of the Americans in the development of harvesting machines and farm tillage and farm mechanisation.
I posted a series of articles on an American based but international in character “Combine Forum” back in 2012 under the title , The Push Button Combine
One of the posts [ 25/ 3 / 2012 ] ran through the history of mechanisation of agriculture here in Australia where developments in SA were central to the mechanisation of Australian agriculture, as compared to the USA in the same period.
Unfortunately quite a lot of the links in that post are probably broken by now but for anybody interested then there is still a lot of history there in that post.
SA in fact in the late 1800’s was the biggest exporter of wheat in the world for a couple of decades.
It is one of the very few grain growing regions in the world where access to ocean ports, at least for small ships and for sailing ships in the late 1800’s , is literally within few tens of kilometres of where the grain is grown and harvested.
Which is why there are all those towns around the SA coast that are listed as Ports as they were where the sailing vessels loading ports for bagged wheat from the local grain growing areas, wheat that came down through the hills and passes around the Gulfs and Peninsulas on horse drawn wagons, wheat which then went from those SA port towns across the world to the “Home country” Great Britain in the sailing ships .
South Australia does have some reasonable deposits of Brown coal / lignite as it is known in the rest of the world, and black coal but these are well into the northern parts of SA.
It is conceivable that with the present dramatic political events that have occurred in the USA, that are now well underway across many nations in Europe leaving the entire EU structure as a very rickety and increasingly rotten edifice which is likely to disintegrate with a few more solid political kicks like Brexit and Trump and Wilders and Le Pen, then the whole rotten climate alarmist leftist wet dream will just disintegrate before our eyes.
This might also mean that here in Australia there will be a brand new lot of political operators appear without any baggage from the old ideologically rigid inflexible arrogant elitist political and NGO dominated political parties and governments.
Which might also mean that the first priority of the new political order will be to again get cheap always available energy in unlimited amounts back into the energy generation system and thereby getting industry and jobs and employment up and running again.
And what better for energy generation than some local coal fields that can be dug up in the State’s back yard, fed into a Ultra Super Critical power generators with a 30% reduction in emissions and a close to 44 to 45% efficiency , a gain of around ten percent increase in efficiency for burning the same amount of coal in the current generators or whats left of them .
SA with its northern coal fields and finding itself in just about every type of energy shortage verging on starvation it could imagine due to plain unvarnished and unimaginable stupidity on the part of the present political incompetents that are passed off as politicians in SA [ and Vic , and Tas , and Queensland with NSW making a good attempt at entering the field of current incompetent political operatives ] could also be the state who will break free from the malodorous and putrefying green blob and get on with building a one of the latest High Efficiency, Low Emissions [ HELE ] coal fired generator.
Of course the ultimate insult would be with the closing of Hazelwood and say as an argument that SA built a brand new latest high efficiency coal burning generator and very soon after the latest debacle, Victoria would have to rely on the Heywood link to get enough power to keep Victoria running
131
That’s as maybe, ROM, but somebody voted these clowns into office.
90
At the last SA election with the vehicle manufactures still more or less operational, Adelaide with a very large number of marginal seats was heavily unionised.
Here’s why Labour are in power in SA today after the 2014 election and note the basis of this comment comes from a former federal Labour heavyweight.
Former Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson is right – South Australia’s gerrymander is a disgrace.
The Liberals’ failure to win a majority of seats on Saturday can only lead to contempt for the state’s “democracy”:
It is difficult to resist the whinges of the losers when the two-party-preferred vote is 53 per cent to 47 per cent and the party on the wrong end of that count gets more seats.
In 2010, the Liberals achieved 18 seats on a two-party-preferred vote of 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
On that occasion, three independents were elected, but even if you add those to the Liberals it still comes to only 21 seats out of 47.
The glib explanation that the Liberals have too many safe seats with big useless majorities just doesn’t cut it.
Something is seriously wrong with the South Australian electoral boundaries.
To win on Saturday, the Liberals needed in excess of 54 per cent.
I can wear 51 per cent or even 52 per cent.
But if you don’t win on 53 per cent or more the word gerrymander springs to mind.
100
So 50% of the state will always vote for labor no matter what they do
50
The electoral boundaries in Australia are drawn based on the polling stations voting trends and numbers the previous elections by the Electoral Commission and after submissions from the Parties and public, so as to give an as equal weighting of votes to each party in that electorate as it is reasonably possible to get .
Hence we always see at each election, state and federal that only a very few percentage change in votes will alter who gets to represent that seat.
State seats are always a bit more suspect and more subject to gerrymander than federal seats in this system.
50
Stop struggling, ROM.
The fact is that 50% of the urban SA population actually prefer being parasites.
No, I don’t like that either.
50
Robert you just nailed the Australian political modus operandi for the past 70 years, the false security of a duopoly.
70
“SA built a brand new latest high efficiency coal burning generator “
Hi ROM, I think I need to correct you on this one.
SA has gas and shale oil in abundance.
They would not use coal, which they would probably have to ship in.
61
If they EVER get sensible, they will build some gas or oil fired power stations, then upgrade the interconnects so as to SELL the electricity back into Victoria in an open unsubsidised market, providing RELIABLE cheap, plentiful, electricity for everyone.
82
No arguments there, Andy.
I’m always too much of an optimist so I feel that the political and energy supply backlash is brewing possibly first in SA as the worst effected and the now but of some very scandalous and scathing commentary from every section of the political., media and public sphere.
If SA decides to go for broke on a new HELE power generator system then it will be a case of the other states having to get into the act and fast as their generators reach the end of their economic lives.
And that means an almost crash build of the latest available power generators regardless if they use gas, oil or brown or black coal will suddenly eventuate as the politicals panic in the understanding that both they and their legacy are going to be utterly trashed as utterly incompetent unless they rectify the major disastrous situations they themselves have created and which the public are becoming very restive and vocal about.
And if it means that the old order politicals are kicked out, literally one can only hope, and are dispensed with in utter disgrace that will make a very large and increasing number of citizens including myself, very happy.
And I would just about put money on some corporation very big in power generator construction, somewhere, has prototype power generators running that can use each and all of those fuels with very little modification needed and maybe even switch as needed between fuels according to the current spot fuel price.
So fuel type may not be a problem if my guess is correct.
50
Back in the real world, the politicians, once caught out, with no only one place to run, will retire so they can spend more time with their families with a pile of pension money which they will have to work out how to spend.
And we will have to work out how to clean up their mess.
90
Hey ROM,
I think it could be said without fear of contradiction that present company is, of course, excepted.
The jury is still out on those Tasmanians though . . 😉
60
There are some Tasmanians here who definitely don’t fit the stupid voter category! Likewise, quite a few Victorians, like me, who are aghast at what Dopey Dan is up to and certainly didn’t vote for him and his pathetic crew.
30
In other news…
A “Category 2” event in Queensland paves the way for category 5 hype from the BoM.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-01/experts-warn-against-underestimating-heatwave-threat/8081264
Imagine how much worse that would be in S.A. with no power for air conditioning, as all the subsidy farms laze in the still air.
100
Local news forecast has been predicting temperatures of high 30’s to low 40’s all week.
Hervey Bay today, only got to 28.1C at midday and 3:00 PM. On the BOM web site.
70
More failed Prognostications from BOM………
Some chicken guts and bones would be more accurate !
10
Human caused global warming is the single largest, most comprehensive Psychological Experiments in the history of the Universe. It all started in at an annual meeting of shrinks when one of their members, discussing the book 1984, suggested that humans really could be duped to ignore reality and believe in nearly anything. After discussion, they decided on weather but further decided weather was just too complex so they settled on temperature. A sub-committee was appointed which enlisted, in fun, some of the faculty of their Earth Sciences Dept. There first attempt, cooling, failed miserably. Not to be deferred, as shrinks never give up, they flipped it to warming. About that time Al Gore wondered into the meeting looking for campaign funds from China and the rest is history.
100
If any sanity ever prevails it may become necessary to crash build some reliable coal or nuclear energy power stations.
I already asked TonyfromOz how long it would take to do this and he said 6-7 years from coal but nuclear is not likely to get support any time soon.
I think prefabricated small modular nuclear reactors of less than 300MW each (the size limit for the definition of these reactors) could be vitally important to solving our forthcoming energy crisis bought about by reliance on intermittent energy but as noted the culture would not likely support nuclear in any form.
We may also be in for huge ongoing expenses to pay out the contractual obligations for wind and solar plant.
What I would be interested in knowing is what the expenses might be to terminate wind and solar production and how it could be done. Any ideas?
60
If sanity will ever prevail? Not possible. Australian politicians are slow thinkers at best so we will most likely have to suffer a crash and burn scenario before the whole population wakes up to the fact we are going in the wrong direction.
80
1 Dec: Herald Sun: Electricity, gas bill shock ahead for Victorian households
by KAREN COLLIER and MATT JOHNSTON
The huge hit comes in the same week the Essential Services Commission revealed 70,000 people are now in energy retailer hardship programs — an increase of 30 per cent on last year — and 61,000 households were disconnected last year.
Average price rises for default residential electricity tariffs, known as standing offers, will range from 6.5 to 11.5 per cent in January. While most customers are on discounted offers, many will face similar price increases…
Opposition energy spokesman David Southwick said Premier Daniel Andrews had underplayed the impact of Hazelwood’s closure on electricity prices…
Tariff changes mean small businesses are facing 7.9 to 16.6 per cent electricity increases and 8.3 to 11.2 per cent gas rises…
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/electricity-gas-bill-shock-ahead-for-victorian-households/news-story/9a174cddd8fbd429f5d653d011b78384
even more infuriating is the way MSM always seem to give the most pro-CAGW mob, in this case the Greens, first go at criticising the price rises, AS IF THEY CARE:
1 Dec: 9 News: Victorian electricity prices to increase by 9.9 percent next year
Retailers are blaming the closure of the Hazelwood power station for the spike in gas and electricity prices by AGL, which has sent prices up more than double the initial predictions.
When the Hazelwood coal mine and power station’s upcoming closure was announced a month ago, Premier Daniel Andrews predicted power prices would rise by about four percent…
“These power companies are a pack of liars, they’re proven liars. In fact the consumer watchdogs have fined them millions because they systematically lied to people about their power bills,” Victorian Greens leader Greg Barber said.
“They will use any excuse to put power prices up and gouge consumers.
Shadow Minister for Energy and Renewables David Southwick labelled the Premier “either a liar or… incompetent”.
“The state government doesn’t have a plan to shift from coal to renewables,” he said…
From July 1, residential electricity bills will rise by almost ten percent, small business prices will jump 13 percent and residential gas will rise by 8.5 percent…
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/12/01/14/15/victorian-electricity-prices-to-increase-by-9-9-percent-next-year
51
re the 9News piece I just posted:
compared to the Greens’ quotes, those from the Shadow Minister for Energy and Renewables, David Southwick, (or those 9 News chose to publish?) come across as the standard cheap political shot, & sound like he’s saying renewables are fine, provided u have a better plan than the current Premier.
the flow-on effect!
1 Dec: AAP: Hazelwood close could affect other states
Victoria has been a net exporter of power, so South Australia, NSW and Tasmania will have to find other sources of energy to make up for the loss of Hazelwood from April.
“I would expect some flow through of wholesale price rises in Victoria after Hazelwood’s closure to be reflected elsewhere,” energy market expert Bruce Mountain told AAP on Thursday.
But he warned there was no reason for a substantial price rise in other states, as most of them have plenty of excess capacity.
A spokesman for the Australian Energy Council also said power prices could rise in states that relied on Victorian imports.
Even though the cost of producing power hasn’t risen, energy producers are charging retail companies 20 per cent more for future contracts because Hazelwood’s cheap competition will be gone…
Mr Mountain authored a Victorian government report that predicted prices would rise between four per cent and eight per cent after Hazelwood’s closure.
But AGL said increases in the wholesale energy price meant residential customers on standing offers will see their bills jump 9.9 per cent in 2017.
Australian Energy Council chief executive Matthew Warren said the Hazelwood closure was interrupting a downward trend on standing offer prices, which cover about 10 per cent of Victorians.
“Last year, standing offer electricity prices fell 1.9 per cent and that followed a drop of 3.6 per cent in the prior year,” Mr Warren said.
Energy Minister Lily D’Ambrosio said the government would come down hard on energy companies that price gouge…
Opposition energy spokesman David Southwick said the government had lied to Victorians about the impact of Hazelwood’s closure…
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/hazelwood-close-could-affect-other-055420358.html
61
Cancel the submarines now. SA is a complete basket case, surviving on subsidies from the rest of Australia.
100
The French Barracuda class nuclear sub which the Australian diesel boats will be redesigned from cost A$1.8 billion per piece compared to the A$4.2 billion per piece we will be paying for an inferior and probably useless design.
It will be the first time in history that a purpose built nuclear sub has been redesigned and downgraded as a conventional sub.
This decision is insane.
People might also want to look at this site. http://www.submarinesforaustralia.com.au/
90
The bad news for Oz is that scientists are working to “improve submersible technologies by bolstering the artificial intelligence that helps underwater robots execute scientific missions”. So drones. (Bomber Barry would dearly love to combine water sports with indiscriminate destruction, but, sadly, he’ll soon be just a spectator, charging by the word.)
The good news is that the scientists are from NASA, so their underwater intelligent drones will probably suck even worse than our diesel subs.
60
Stop these things!
https://youtu.be/zr3z_7iQ35s
60
Documentary on the huge disaster of windmills in Ontario, Canada.
An environmental and economic nightmare.
https://youtu.be/55-jBCjtJ88
50
I have an answer to South Australia’s prob. Use 18C to ban the use of words like “blackout” and “broke”. South Australians can only be referred to as “luminally challenged”, “financially devolved” etc.
The bureaucracy and spy network (to be called “empowerment and information pathways program”) required to enforce these standards could be classified as a “green jobs” initiative. This will entitle SA to massive subsidies in the form of free coal power from the Eastern states.
You see? There’s a post-modern solution to everything. And yet people dare to criticise the higher education which makes these solutions possible!
150
O/T
Frexit Looms
‘In France pollsters no longer dismiss the possibility that Marine Le Pen, the charismatic leader of the National Front (FN), could be elected president next year. Compared with other Europeans, French voters are strikingly opposed to globalisation and international trade, and few think immigrants have had a positive effect on their country.
‘Ms Le Pen promises that she would pull France out of the euro and hold a “Frexit” referendum on membership of the EU. The single currency might not survive a French withdrawal. And if French voters were to back Frexit, the EU would surely fall apart.’
The Economist
130
After all that trouble to push to the edges of the Atlantic and the Caucasus, there’s something sad about the disintegration of a German Empire. Familiar the fourth time around…but sad nonetheless.
Hope everybody’s a good sport about it.
70
It seemed like a good idea at the time, a stable Europe going forward after a couple of world wars, but losing control of sovereign borders was not foreseen and its become a huge problem.
100
This just in:
Link to BBC
50
Interesting…………
French President Hollande Will NOT Seek Re-Election
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/12/01/french-president-hollande-will-not-seek-reelection/
00
Interestingly, re the comments by Andrew McKenzie of BHP Billiton, his remarks are at odds with his organisation’s aims and actions. Reviewing the annual reports of BHP Billiton I discovered that it has a department dedicated to action on Climate Change which has wasted $400 million of shareholder’s money addressing the issue.
On top of that, after attending a meeting addressed by Australian BHP Billiton boss cocky, Mike Henry, about the need to stop the new $5/tonne tax threatened by the Nationals in W.A., I learned that BHP Billiton has a policy aimed at imposing a price on carbon.
Mixed messages and misappropriation of stakeholders money!
At a November “Engagement Seminar” for staff, questions in writing were invited. I submitted a question regarding a cost/benefit analysis relating to the $400 million and what BHP Billiton’s projected affect on the climate would be.
The question was ignored.
80
And a very good point Rick.
Quite a few large corporates “sell” and lobby for the carbon schemes. They probably think it generates goodwill and advertising (Their PR department almost certainly believes this). Or perhaps it is fear based, and they are afraid of a green campaign against them like the anti-exxon one that has been running in different forms for years. (Don’t put your head above the parapet. I have seen this sentiment expressed by two heads of our largest companies). Or is there something else, like the government-green-rewards and subsidies, say, like Royal Dutch Shell gets for it’s biofuel program.
$400m to keep Greenpeace off your back might seem like a good deal.
101
… perhaps it is fear based, and they are afraid of a green campaign against them like the anti-exxon one that has been running in different forms for years. (Don’t put your head above the parapet. I have seen this sentiment expressed by two heads of our largest companies)
Yes.
I’ve attended a number of industry seminars and conferences over the last 18 months, where exactly that sentiment was iterated and re-iterated ad nauseum. Pointed anti comments from the informed floor were batted away.
However, at one such technical conference just this week (and attended by a very large industry insider crowd) several heavyweights admitted this strategy had failed (golly gee whiz etc) and promised a new “retail” strategy in 2017.
Well, maybe … but I think it’s way too late now to save our power grids from real degradation.
60
I’d bet it’s largely ‘parapet insurance’ just like how Tassal rent the WWF Panda logo for $250K per year. What a bargain!
Tassal defended the partnership . .
‘Partnership’ is such pleasantly benign phrasing because no one wants to talk about a ‘protection racket’.
Gangsters, the lot of ‘em . . .
60
Tassal is HALAL.
Don’t purchase their products !!
20
To upset somebody..mostly Greens one would guess,
Maybe this is an answer.
“Thorium is a natural occurring element found on earth, the moon, mars… essentially everywhere. It is a slightly radioactive metal and is easily three times more abundant on Earth than uranium. Because of its fertility, it can be used as fuel in a nuclear power plant.
Why is thorium important if we already have uranium-fueled nuclear power plants? A thorium-fueled nuclear reactor generates hundreds of times the power of a uranium or coal power plant but produces essentially no waste. A thorium power plant would produce much less than 1% of the waste that a uranium plant of equal magnitude produces and, of course, would produce no carbon dioxide. More importantly, while the waste of a uranium power plant is toxic for over 10,000 years, the little waste that is produced in a thorium plant is benign in under 200 years. … “
60
As I write at Friday 02/12/2016 total wind power is 1143 Kw of a required 27,780 Kw.
4.1%
Welcome to 1950 where every factory needed its own generator.
91
As I type this the entire wind output for Australia is a mere 1066MW.
10
Germany strikes out for the globalists:
1 Dec: ClimateChangeNews: Germany tells World Bank to quit funding fossil fuels
German development minister (Gerd Müller) says World Bank must focus “all of its work on climate and sustainability targets”
By Karl Mathiesen in Berlin
On Wednesday, German chancellor Angela Merkel and Müller met with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim to sign a cooperation agreement on climate change.
A statement from the German government said Müller had used the moment to call on the World Bank to put “an end to investments in obsolete and climate-damaging technologies”…
“The World Bank must also focus all of its work on climate and sustainability targets,” said Müller.
The bank is considering finance for a new coal plant in Kosovo – despite an internal policy ruling out such projects except in rare circumstances. It has also announced support for large gas projects in Azerbaijan and Ghana among others…
Germany contributes €105m to the World Bank’s climate programmes…
Müller: “…Climate change is also an opportunity, especially in the developing countries: renewable energies create jobs and are good for human health”.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/01/germany-tells-world-bank-to-quit-funding-fossil-fuels/
1 Dec: ClimateChangeNews: Germany makes climate change G20 priority
Agenda for Hamburg summit submitted by chancellor Angela Merkel to cabinet calls for global push on climate and development goals
By Karl Mathiesen in Berlin and Ed King
“One main concern is to make progress on realising the goals of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Paris Agreement on climate change,” reads a line in the G20 agenda, which chancellor Angela Merkel presented to her cabinet.
The G20 will be one of the first gatherings for incoming US president Donald Trump to engage with fellow world leaders and gain a sense of the level of global commitment on climate…
***Brigitte Knopf, an official with inside knowledge of G20 planning, said Wednesday’s announcement by the German presidency was being viewed in the country as “an anti-Trump agenda”.
Knopf is head of the Berlin-based Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) (LINK), which is tasked with shaping policy for the climate aspect of the talks…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/12/01/germany-makes-climate-change-g20-priority/
***from HuffPo: Brigitte Knopf is Secretary General of the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), which is a member of the Earth League and Knowledge Partner of the ***Green Growth Knowledge Platform. She is an expert on climate change mitigation scenarios and one of the authors of the latest IPCC report.
***The GGKP (Green Growth Knowledge Platform) was established in January 2012 by the Global Green Growth Institute, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Bank…
The GGKP benefits from strategic funding from Switzerland, as well as programmatic funding from the Netherlands…
20
That’s pathetic, Germany.
Rick just pointed out that BHP Billiton
spentwasted $400 million of shareholder’s money addressing the issue.Lift your game please or be seen as a pariah nation . . and we know you won’t like that. 🙂
20
Seems in South Australia the government is saying everyone to whom power is essential for business should supply their own. That’s one way around the government imposed problem, but imagine all those little petrol or diesel driven generators belching carbon dioxide and ramming up in the middle of the night. I thought green power was supposed to reduce the output of this fertiliser.
90
I think it would be a good idea for BHP to build a coal fired power station to supply the Olympic Dam mine and also use it to supply excess power to the SA grid.
They would have a reliable base load from the mine, which on its own would probably save them money. On top of that they would sell to the SA grid at high spot prices!
20
Does the State have enough electricity to run the desal plant? How about no water because the load shedding requirments to run the plant are too onerous…no power…no water…no idea…
70
Boy Scouts are taught how to find water, and can usually get by. But sewerage is a much more serious problem, as any student of medieval European history will attest. Care for a Plague, anyone?
60
Plague is spread by rats and fleas.
Cholera however is a different issue (water borne) and is a clear danger when the sewage system breaks down.
I recall that we had a discussion on this site a year ago about the epidemiology of Cholera.
60
In defence of rats and fleas.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2027347/Black-Death-backtrack-Dont-blame-rats-plague-spread-PEOPLE.html
10
ridiculous:
1 Dec: UK Daily Mail: Press Association: Military experts warn of ‘epic’ humanitarian crisis sparked by climate change
Even if countries keep the commitment to limit warming to no more than 2C above pre-industrial levels, seen as the threshold beyond which dangerous climate change will occur, coping with the impacts will not be cheap, Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti said…
PIC: Stranded Polar Bear
His warning is being backed by military experts from other parts of the world, who are speaking at an event at Chatham House.
Brigadier General Stephen Cheney, chief executive of the American Security Project and member of the US Department of State’s foreign policy affairs board, said: “Climate change could lead to a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions…
Concerns have also been raised about the rapid melting of the Arctic, which is increasingly bringing nations into confrontations over shipping and the exploitation of newly available resources…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-3988384/Military-experts-warn-epic-humanitarian-crisis-sparked-climate-change.html
1 Dec: RT: Climate change already major security threat – military chiefs
Speaking ahead of a major London conference on security and the climate, serving and retired military figures said climate change was already exacerbating more conventional threats to stability.
The ‘Security and Climate Change: Are we Living in ‘The Age of Consequences?’ conference will be held at the Chatham House think-tank. Speakers include senior UK, American and Bangladeshi military officers.
Among them is former commander of UK maritime forces and climate security envoy Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti…
Their calls jar considerably with the recently restated position of President-elect Donald Trump.
“As far as this issue on climate change — the only thing he [Trump] was saying after being asked a few questions about it is, look, he’ll have an open mind about it but he has his default position, which (is?) most of it is a bunch of bunk, but he’ll have an open mind and listen to people,” the chair of the Republic National Committee Reince Priebus said on Sunday.
The event will start at 7pm on Thursday.
https://www.rt.com/uk/368853-climate-change-security-threat/
20
Chatham House: Security and Climate Change: Are we Living in ‘The Age of Consequences’?
1 Dec 2016 – 19:00 to 21:00
Brigadier General Stephen A. Cheney, CEO, American Security Project; Member, Foreign Affairs Policy Board, US Department of State
Major General Munir Muniruzzaman, President and CEO, Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies; Former Military Advisor to the President of Bangladesh
Rear Admiral Neil Morisetti, Director of Strategy, UK Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy; University College London; Former UK Government Climate and Energy Security Envoy
Dr Patricia Lewis, Research Director, International Security, Chatham House
Chair: Rt Hon Sir Oliver Letwin MP, Former UK Cabinet Office Minister
Overview: …US federal agencies have recently been mandated to fully consider the impacts of climate change in the development of national security policy…
A new documentary from the US, ***The Age of Consequences, explores the links between climate change and security, including in current events in Syria, Egypt, the Sahel and Bangladesh. Our high-level panel will reflect on key sections from the documentary, which will be screened during the event, and explore whether security strategists, militaries and policy-makers in nations other than the US are fully cognisant of the risks posed by a changing climate, and whether they are ready to anticipate and respond to its potentially destabilizing effects.
The panel discussion will be followed by a Q&A…
https://www.chathamhouse.org/event/security-and-climate-change-are-we-living-age-consequences
Jared has a lot to say:
***May 2016: OpenCanada.org: Hot Docs 2016: ‘Age of Consequences’ director talks climate change and security
OpenCanada’s Krista Hessey speaks with Jared P. Scott about his latest film, Age of Consequences, as it premieres in Toronto: ‘This is not your left-leaning hippie outfit, this is the Department of Defense saying that climate change will burden the economy.’
Jared P. Scott is no stranger to the frontlines of climate change advocacy. Past documentaries he has co-directed (Disruption and Do the Math) have centred around climate change organizing, environmental degradation and power of the fossil fuel industry…
https://www.opencanada.org/features/hot-docs-2016-age-consequences-director-talks-climate-change-and-security/
LinkedIn: Jared P. Scott: He wrote, directed and produced the NYTimes Critics’ Pick REQUIEM FOR THE AMERICAN DREAM (2015/16) – Noam Chomsky and the principles of concentrated wealth & power. (TriBeCa, AFI, IDFA)…
Jared wrote, directed and produced the #1 Doc on filmsforaction.org – DISRUPTION (2014) – a story of climate and social tipping points that galvanized the largest climate march in history (watchdisruption.com).
He wrote, directed and produced DO THE MATH (2013) – ***Bill McKibben’s terrifying math of the climate crisis (Al-Jazeera)…
A seasoned speaker, Jared has delivered keynote addresses at COP 20 & COP 21, led discussions at The New School, NYU, SUNY/Bard, & CMU, participated in festival panels (Sheffield, DOC NYC), and has appeared on CNN, Al-Jazeera, ABC, NBC and Huff Post Live.
00
AS an ex-electricity supply system maintenance engineer I would now have to include the SA wind forecast in the factors controlling the scheduling of system maintenance? The FOG (Flannery/Obama/Gore) is getting just a tad too thick.
60
Exactly. No tranmsission system nor generator maintenance to be performed whenever high or very low pressure systems will transit south east Australia. The BOM can then be held liable as the ultimate cause for subsequent blackouts.
50
One day in the SA Department of Energy a bored public servant decided to turn out the cupboards in his office. In one he found a brass lamp which he decided would fetch a few dollars on E-Bay.
When he polished it a genie appeared and gave him 3 wishes for releasing him from the lamp.
The bureaucrat immediately wished he was in a luxury penthouse overlooking Sydney Harbour and (poof) there he was, magnificent view from the floor to ceiling windows, and with a swimming pool on the terrace to the side.
For his second wish he asked to be irresistible to girls and (poof) 5 gorgeous girls in bikinis were by the pool (although in the course of strict accuracy it should be mentioned that very little of the girls was actually inside said bikinis).
For his third wish he thought a bit; obviously he would need money but how much? Especially with the outlook for the Australian dollar. He decided not to be too literal and instead told the genie to make it unnecessary for him to ever have to work again.
And (poof) he was back in his old office.
60
I thought you guys did live-line stuff?
20
30 Nov: BBC: Earth warming to climate tipping point, warns study
By Mark Kinver
“There have been concerns about this positive feedback for a long, long time,” said lead author Thomas Crowther, who conducted the research while based at Yale University, US, but now at the Netherlands Institute of Ecology…
Dr Crowther, whose team had produced a short ***video on the subject (LINK), added: “I do not positive as in ‘good’ but positive as in it is reinforcing, so it is a process that once it has kicked off, it leads to the acceleration of itself…
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-38146248
***video mentions funding by Marie Curie Actions:
Marie Curie Actions: Fellowships are awarded by the ***European Commission in various scientific disciplines within the People programme (FP7). – Wikipedia
Netherlands Institute of Ecology: Dr. Tom Crowther
I moved to the NIOO from Yale University in 2015 to begin a Marie Curie postdoctoral fellowship.
https://nioo.knaw.nl/en/employees/tom-crowther
10
30 Nov: WaPo: Frigid air mass building in Alaska, poised to spill into Lower 48 next week
By Jason Samenow
Alaska is witnessing its coldest air in almost two years, and some of the biting chill is forecast to plunge into the western United States in about a week’s time…
It was even colder in Bettles, Alaska, on Tuesday, where the temperature dropped to minus-41 with a bone-chilling wind chill of minus-53…
This morning, some locations in our 49th state plummeted as low as minus-40 to minus-45 degrees…
Although the weather in the Last Frontier is cold compared with the past two years, it has been much colder in the past. Alaska’s coldest November temperature of minus-62 was set in 1970 at Prospect Creek…
On Wednesday afternoon next week, temperatures are forecast to be 20 to 30 degrees colder than normal in much of the Rockies and western Plains.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/30/frigid-air-mass-building-in-alaska-poised-to-spill-into-u-s-next-week/?utm_term=.16c05926cdb0
30 Nov: UK Express: Nathan Rao: UK set for COLDEST WINTER in six years as Britain braces for HEAVY SNOW
FREEZING Britain is about to get even chillier as the country wraps up for the coldest start to winter for six years.
Thermometers nudged the -8C (17.6F) mark last night with similar temperatures on the cards today.
It comes after England shivered in the coldest night of autumn so far on Monday as the mercury sank to -7.5C (18.5F) in South Newington, Oxfordshire.
Although it will turn slightly milder towards the end of the week the Arctic freeze will tighten its grip at the weekend, experts say.
The early winter blast has sparked warnings to the elderly and vulnerable to take extra care as cold weather can kill.
The Met Office with Public Health England (PHE) has issued a level-2 cold weather alert warning of an increased health risk to some people until Friday afternoon…
Met Office forecaster Emma Sharples said the cold snap could last into next week thanks to high pressure wedged close to the UK…
If temperatures dip much below -7C (19.4F) overnight into Thursday it will be the coldest start to winter since they hit -15.3C (4.46F) in 2010…
Met Office experts blame environmental factors including a La Nina cooling of the eastern Pacific, weakening Polar winds and melting Arctic sea ice driven by warmer than usual North Atlantic waters for cold winter predictions.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “The stratosphere, tropics and Arctic sea ice are all trying to push our weather towards becoming colder over the next few weeks.
“Although it is not guaranteed, our long range predictions and those from other forecast centres suggest an increased risk of cold weather patterns early this winter.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/737814/UK-weather-forecast-coldest-winter-Britain-heavy-snow
00
30 Nov: Nature: Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century
Authors: Thomas R. Knutson, Rong Zhang & Larry W. Horowitz
Abstract:
Global mean temperature over 1998 to 2015 increased at a slower rate (0.1 K decade−1) compared with the ensemble mean (forced) warming rate projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models (0.2 K decade−1). Here we investigate the prospects for this slower rate to persist for a decade or more. The slower rate could persist if the transient climate response is overestimated by CMIP5 models by a factor of two, as suggested by recent low-end estimates. Alternatively, using CMIP5 models’ warming rate, the slower rate could still persist due to strong multidecadal internal variability cooling. Combining the CMIP5 ensemble warming rate with internal variability episodes from a single climate model—having the strongest multidecadal variability among CMIP5 models—we estimate that the warming slowdown (<0.1 K decade−1 trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11% and 6%, respectively…
http://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms13676
00
It appears Portland Smelter has lost a pot line following the 5 hour outage. The recovery process is long and expensive – could be 6 months or more to dig out and restart. Alcoa may just take the insurance payout and leave.
70
In the 30 years of smelter operation this hasn’t happened before, but until the investigation concludes we won’t really know what caused the outage.
My guess is that the rot set in at Ausnet in the middle of last year, when the owners (Singapore Power and China State Grid) sacked the long serving director Tony Iannello.
20
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/fears-crippled-alcoa-plant-in-portland-may-never-reopen-after-power-failure-20161202-gt2lc1.htm
10
Going back a few months it seems they were getting squeezed by higher power bills and no government subsidy.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/portland-smelter-owner-wants-new-power-contract-to-stay-open-20160812-gqr3nl.html
Reading elsewhere I find the smelter consumes 10% of the State’s electricity and the taxpayer has subsidised the operation over many years at a cost of $5 billion.
10
I remember that the aluminium smelters were given a low price for electricity, well below retail. However it may have been more than the cost of production.
Cost to the taxpayer might depend on which baseline figure was used. Anything above cost would be a benefit to the taxpayer.
40
Just having a thought here…
Ever since the invention of the waterwheel and also the steam engine mankind has had access to a steady, mostly unvarying supply of energy. This is the first time in many centuries that due to windmills and solar we are going back to energy supplies that are determined by the whims of nature.
21
A colleague found this web site through Reddit, and I thought it might be of interest:
https://www.ventusky.com/
Shows a myriad of global weather variables superimposed on a global map. Have fun…
10
Re Ventusky as above in Bulldust @ # 56
I see that some of northern Central Asia and a good deal of Siberia are now running in the minus 35C to minus 41C range.
And it ain’t even in the coldest period of the season up there yet by a month or more.
Makes this oldster’s blood run cold at the thought of those temperatures.
20
December 1941: Moscow. My uncle had some stories about sand soaked diesel in 44 s in order to keep warm.Stll,he lost all his fingers.What comes around…..
00
new details:
2 Dec: SMH: Tony Wright: Fears crippled Alcoa plant in Portland may never reopen after power failure
More than half the Portland Aluminium plant’s smelting capacity has been seriously damaged as the company investigates what can be saved amid fears the plant may never reopen…
Alcoa – which is Victoria’s largest single exporter – directly employs about 680 full-time staff and contractors at Portland, a city of only around 10,000 people. Around 2000 jobs rely on the operation.
The power supply to the huge complex went out for more than five hours on Wednesday night, causing molten aluminium in more than 200 smelting pots to cool and solidify…
This crippled an entire “pot-line” in the smelter, which runs two such potlines to smelt aluminium.
The other has been working on limited capacity for some time, and had only about 100 pots operating. Alcoa has closed both operations as it works to stabilise the second pot line and investigates the damage to the first…READ ON
http://www.smh.com.au/victoria/fears-crippled-alcoa-plant-in-portland-may-never-reopen-after-power-failure-20161202-gt2lc1.html
30
The deindustrialisation plan of the Left is working as designed, another 2000 jobs gone.
Hail the almighty windmill, destroyer of Western Civilisation!
31
Well, one of the destroyers, I think we all know what the other one is…but I am not allowed to say here…!
21
So Don Quxote was right!
Hail another Don!
10
2 Dec: SMH: Peter Hannam: ‘Everyone is under great threat’: Call for cyclone-like categories for heatwaves
Heatwaves cause more deaths in Australia than all other natural hazards combined, so authorities should consider a cyclone-like rating system to help people prepare for hot spells, a risk researcher says.
While the Bureau of Meteorology has developed its own system to rank heatwaves, there’s still scope to complement it with ratings similar to those used to warn about cyclone intensity, said Thomas Loridan, a lead scientist with research centre Risk Frontiers…
“Only by having a clear definition of what a heatwave is, and the differing degrees of risk, can we start to educate people,” he said, adding “everyone is under great threat in the high categories”…
Five severity ratings for heatwaves could inform the public of risks and help health authorities and other services prepare…
The bureau’s three levels of heatwaves – low intensity, severe or extreme – were designed for easy communication to a broad audience…
However Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a heatwave researcher at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, based at the University of NSW, said the two systems could complement each other…
“We have this mentality – ‘it’s hot, suck it up, get used to it ‘ – when it’s getting hotter and our thresholds of what we can cope with haven’t actually changed, ***but the climate has***,” Dr Perkins-Kirkpatrick said.
Having refined heatwave warnings will be increasingly important. “As populations increase, and climate change continues to take hold, [impacts] will get worse, undoubtedly,” she said…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/everyone-is-under-great-threat-call-for-cyclonelike-categories-for-heatwaves-20161201-gt2bkh.html
00
***who would vote for the Greens?
2 Dec: Sky News: AAP: Victorian smelter will take ‘days’ to restart
Industry and Employment Minister Wade Noonan is in ongoing discussions with Alcoa about the severity and potential impacts of the power outage.
‘Our priority is Alcoa workers and we will remain in close contact with the company as more information becomes available,’ Mr Noonan said on Friday.Victorian
***Greens leader Greg Barber called for a fast tracked transition taskforce to prepare for the possible closure of Alcoa.
‘We can’t sit around and wait for the company to make decisions before we start preparing for the closure,’ Mr Barber said.
Alcoa’s power supply will be under even more pressure when the Hazelwood coal mine and power station stops producing cheap electricity in April…
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/national/vic/2016/12/02/victorian-smelter-will-take–days–to-restart.html
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JO
O/T =,but some people get it IMO
http://www.fortstjohn.ca/sites/default/files/public_notice/Mayors%20letter%20VancouverSun.pdf
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2 Dec: AFR: Ben Potter: SA Power crisis: Northern power station could be open by New Year
The Northern coal fired power station could be re-opened by next summer to ease South Australia’s blackout-prone electricity system through the summer months, Brisbane-based power investor Trevor St Baker said.
Mr St Baker said all that is standing in the way of a re-opening is the reluctance of BHP Billiton – the biggest power user in South Australia – to sign a power purchase agreement with the shuttered coal plant and electricity market rule changes to reward coal and gas generators for grid stabilising services for the state’s wind-heavy power system.
That would enable his Sunset Power International to take over the decommissioning of the Northern plant and spend about $100 million re-hiring staff and getting it ready to supply power again by the summer of 2017-18.
The power industry maverick bought the unloved Vales Point coal power station from the NSW government for $1m million last year…
South Australian Treasurer and Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis said the state government wouldn’t put any roadblocks in the way of Mr St Baker if he was able to come to commercial terms to acquire the Northern power station. But it needed to be economically viable for that proposal to work…
As well, Mr St Baker wants National Electricity Market rules updated to recompense “reliable base-load capable generators for the essential spinning reserve and system ancillary services necessary to restore secure and reliable electricity supplies in the State”…READ ALL
http://www.afr.com/news/sa-power-crisis-northern-power-station-could-be-open-by-new-year-20161201-gt2cs8
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Att: Harry Twinotter. I know you’re a lurking red thumb …
You better alert sou about her latest failed post: WUWT sez let Africans starve, and implies Trump has single-handedly stopped [Doomsday Global Warming].
Folk here who click on that link can play sou’s fave obsession, archiving crazy comments. Check this doozy:
MillicentNovember 29, 2016 at 12:45 AM
So today the WUWT inmates don’t care about 3rd world people.
Whoa! Wait. What?
Obama (video, 2013): ‘The Planet Will Boil Over’ If Africans Are Allowed Cars and Air Conditioning.
~ ~ ~
Africans have more chance of getting cars & a/c, better quality of life, longer lives (page 8, quote UN) if Trump is Prez.
And he is.
That’s a fact.
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1 Dec: Toronto Sun: Ontario green policies actually driving up carbon dioxide
by Jack MacLaren
(MacLaren is the MPP for Carleton-Mississippi Mills)
The Ontario Liberals’ Green Energy Act is meant to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by generating power from wind turbines and solar panels.
We already know this has turned into a wasteful boondoggle — just look at your hydro bill. But there’s another problem with the Green Energy Act, which I was shocked to learn about.
A 2015 report from the Ontario Society of Professional Engineers (OSPE) makes the alarming case that Ontario green energy policy is actually driving up carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions…
Basically, windmills and solar panels only produce power when the wind blows and the sun shines. They need backup in the form of other power sources to provide constant electricity when you need it. Ontario has gone with natural gas backup because that is the cheapest source of energy currently available. Other options were available, including nuclear and hydro plants, but natural gas was chosen.
This is unfortunate because nuclear and hydro do not emit CO2, but natural gas does. So as we dial down nuclear and hydro, we are doubling up on CO2 emissions from natural gas…
Now, the trouble of building all the windmills and solar panels wouldn’t be so bad if it were actually worthwhile. But it isn’t…
The Ontario Liberal government’s Green Energy Act is an environmental and economic disaster. As both a farmer and a civil engineer, I know about protecting the environment as well as long-term sustainability…READ ON
http://www.torontosun.com/2016/12/01/ontario-green-policies-actually-driving-up-carbon-dioxide
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lots of details about all the knock-on effects, not just UK & France:
1 Dec: Reuters: Bate Felix: French power cuts more likely after UK link outage – RTE
http://www.reuters.com/article/france-power-winteroutlook-idUSL8N1DW3O3
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So far at least, our power has been almost rock solid. The last two outages we had were:
First, a planned outage for installation of upgrades to the system. It was announced to all customers in advance and they had the power back on before the end of the announces 6 hour time it would be down.
Second, the power was out Friday morning for about a minute just before 7:00 AM. Since it was so short I have to conclude that the power cutoff was necessary to allow some change or repair to be switched in somewhere and avoid problems that might affect customers during the switchover.
Any outage before these two are so far in the past I can’t remember when they happened. Our worst vulnerability is that the powerline serving this whole tract plus half a dozen others is very close to a heavily traveled road for about a quarter mile and every now and then someone can’t resist the temptation to plow down a pole and put several hundred homes in the dark. They really should put that stretch underground.
My worst complaint about power outages aside from the possibility of losing some work on the computer is that the Internet router restarts its security log from scratch if it gets shut off. That loses my history of unwanted connect attempts and that history can be quite interesting sometimes.
They never tell us what they’re actually doing and I expect that’s a good thing because it doesn’t give anyone bent on mischief even a clue about where they might be most successful with a minimum of effort.
Now e’re building rapidly toward dependence on more renewable sources and I expect eventually to have similar problems to what SA has had.
What will the future bring? And I can only guess.
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[…] was joined by The Weekend Australian, which described renewables as “ruinous;” climate denial propaganda website Jo Nova, which decided that wind energy was at fault (when a major transmission line fails, things happen); […]
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