A fifth of South Australia lost power yesterday due to a nasty storm.
You would think with all the climate models predicting more of every kind of extreme weather that South Australia, of all places, which is spending millions to prevent this sort of weather, would have upgraded their transmission lines to cope with it? Then again, maybe the models didn’t exactly predict these, not-so-extreme 120km/hr gusts.
Still Adelaide has a good desal plant to help them cope with climate change.
That wasn’t the case back in 1948 when a cyclone went through.
Roofs were blown off, flash floods occurred and a frigate washed ashore in 1948. (Click to read it all).
For the poor people of the west coast of SA, this may be their fourth blackout in four months. Some had another blackout last week due to lightning and a wind gust of “up to 111km/hr”. It doesn’t look like this has anything to do with renewables, it appears to be inadequate infrastructure and probably the return of a natural weather cycle (Adelaide was hit by a cyclone in 1948, widespread damage in 1954, much damage in 1927, and in 1910 and 1916):
Almost one-fifth of South Australian homes are without power after a severe storm lashed the state overnight, forcing power lines down.
South Australian emergency services minister Peter Malinauskas said 125,000 homes were now without power throughout the state, 19 per cent of all households, the result of trees falling on power lines with State Emergency Services attending 1000 calls since 120 km an hour winds hit around midnight.
Is that it? Gusts of 120km an hour:
Tina Donaldson, senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology said the strongest wind gust in the state was 120 km/h, recorded at Mount Crawford in the AdelaideHills. Port Augusta saw gusts as high as 96 km/h.
Donaldson said it was also the third-wettest December day on record in Adelaide, with between 40 and 60mm of rain falling on the Adelaide plains in 24 hours, and between 70 and 100mm in the Adelaide Hills.
A hint of “climate change blame” already:
Roberts said that his anecdoctal experience has suggested storms like this are getting worse in South Australia.
Roof, supposed to last for 35 more years, blows off:
The roof of a Glenelg Oval grandstand was blown off in the storm.
“The ferocity of the storm, really was strong,” City of Holdfast Bay Mayor Stephen Patterson said.
“That roof wasn’t due to be replaced for 35 years. That’s really taken us by surprise.”
h/t David M
Bad luck or bad policy; the politicians will find something to blame that doesn’t include their bad policy.
442
“Bad luck or bad policy” – at this early stage, it looks like neither. Just Communist style bad management.
213
So that would be bad policy then.
60
Hanson needs a policy whereby the electricity retail sector is shut down & the state government takes it over to control the whole industry. (They already own the generators)
Energy policy needs to be returned to former low cost service which is reliable with consistent pricing free from this scourge of Global Warming propaganda.
Queensland would have queues of businesses lined up wanting to move to a state where there is certainty of reliability & realistically priced energy.
130
Indeed. Queensland has an horrific renewable energy target at the moment, but we are expecting to be governed by an LNP/One Nation team after the next election – due within the next year or so. That should introduce a touch of sanity.
210
Electricity supply to customers was always classified as an ESSENTIAL SERVICE.
It was not and should not be seen as a means to massive profits as practically all human beings require it !!!!!!
143
Electricity is not really an essential service, unless you are living on a life support system.
As I type this, Mrs Whakaaro is keeping her girlish figure by peddling like mad on our personal generator. It will be my turn to peddle for dinner, later tonight. After that, who knows?
103
Depends on how you define essential Rereke. Can you you live without electricity? Sure, but you will have a significantly shorter, harder and unhealthier life. Comparing nations with little or no electricity to those with ample supply shows how essential it is.
140
Well I do have a question for Rereke!
As you pedal to supply power to cook your meals [ I assume it is electrical power you are pedalling as you haven’t mentioned consuming any baked beans for the evening’s cooking with gas ] your energy requirements no doubt rise precipitously.
Can the power from your pedalling used for cooking keep up with the cooking process on the food required to replace the energy you use used to pedal for that cooking power ?
[ grin ]
——————
And Australian’s have been there and done the pedalling for power bit way back beginning in 1928.
The Pedal Radio of the Great Outback
Sometimes heard on the outback pedal radio as the outback women gossiped and yarned on the pedal radio was a nowadays very non politically correct, “pedal harder there you lazy black B”!
41
ROM,
That all depends. I could be pedalling hard enough to generate sufficient electricity to power 25 Watts of light, while Mrs Whakaaro artfully arranges two salad meals.
50
our supreme leader Sir Joe Joh Bjelke-Petersen declared electricity supply an “essential service”, thereby making it illegal for the power companies to conduct rolling power strikes for wage increases. It worked. We haven’t had a power strike since, and electricity supply is indeed now a legally enforceable “essential service”.
60
And what is she peddling? Corrected by ROM.
20
Peddle? Pedal? Whatever. Pedal first, peddle the product.
Please keep a useful detailed record of the inputs and outputs of your system and post it here for us.
20
Anybody who imposes self limits, on the number of ways they have, in spelling a word, simply has no imagination.
30
Hello Angry,
And you may be angrier soon as the thought of returning ‘essential’ services to the State and The Unions just makes me shudder.
It was common for a telephone customer to report their business phone out and to be told there be be a wait list of over a month. Complaining could result in a week or two of difference. Either Way.
The Bureaucrats and union officials of all these public essential services acted like they were rulers of an Empire and we were just puppets in their power play.
I just want my network body (Ausnet) and the price charging body to do their job and if they make a good dollar then so be it.
And on this hottish, muggy Melbourne day I want my cooling and fridge and My electricity to be reliable, efficient and affordable and they are.
Therefore none of them are Wind or Solar renewable.
60
Hello Angry,
And you may be angrier soon as the thought of returning ‘essential’ services to the State and The Unions just makes me shudder.
It was common for a telephone customer to report their business phone out and to be told there be be a wait list of over a month. Complaining could result in a week or two of difference. Either Way.
The Bureaucrats and union officials of all these public essential services acted like they were rulers of an Empire and we were just puppets in their power play.
I just want my network body (Ausnet) and the price charging body to do their job and if they make a good dollar then so be it.
And on this hottish, muggy Melbourne day I want my cooling and fridge and My electricity to be reliable, efficient and affordable and they are.
Therefore none of them are Wind or Solar renewable.
11
Relying on the weather for power production is never a good idea. That’s why industrial society ditched the windmill the first time around about 250 years ago as soon as the steam engine (Newcomen) was developed and became popular.
563
That’s why we ditched sail ships, except for pleasure. I don’t believe there were ship schedules in that era.
202
From the age of wind:
In Wagner’s opera The Flying Dutchman
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I find it ironic that the global warming alarmists are predicting more of this chaotic weather yet they want to rely solely on wind and solar. Good luck you fools in SA. You are just getting what you deserve. Now wake up and demand your state government start building coal fired power stations. Otherwise, enjoy your ever increasing blackouts and your eventual bankrupt economy.
602
SA like TAS will continue to expect funding from federal taxpayers to keep their state moving, and of course electricity from interstate. I wonder if the socialists have considered where the money would come from, and the electricity aid, if all state governments contained elected socialist fools.
200
Tasmania and South Australia should be cut loose and not provided with any assistance regarding electricity.
Let them all stew in their own juice !!!
142
And SA is calling for financial assistance from the federal government taxpayers for a new electricity interconnector between SA and NSW.
70
Tell them they’re dreamin !!!!!
80
Maybe they should pay for an upgrade of the Hunter power stations to state-of-the-art standards first.
A far better use of taxpayer money.
33
You need power to make stew.
20
So long as there is decent rainfall, Tasmania will not have an issue.
There main problem was that they used up all their water feed power to Victoria to make money…
…. then promptly had to pay all back out + some to cover for their greedy stupidity.
Without the link to Victoria, they would not have had an issue.
162
From memory Hydro Tasmania started off last Summer with less than 25% in their dams and then lost their umbilical cord to dirty Yallourn coal fired generation. By mid April the dams were down to 12.6% before the temporary diesel generators were switched on to help. There was also an unusual rain event, from the East, which helped a lot.
There was going to be an inquiry into the saga. Who was to blame for the disaster? Not sure how high one goes, but I doubt if it were the professional engineers. Now Minister Groom is crowing about that they have the storages up to 40%. Bravo, they should be at least 70% prior to Summer and this will take a while with the major ones, Great lake and Lake Gordon well below the spillways.
In the days of Sir Alan Knight the buck stopped there; at least the power supply problems of the mid 1960’s were due to genuine low rainfall and not lousy management by the pollies.
70
If it is possible to find one example of a country, corporation, business owner, individual that is not in mind boggling debt or funded by the awesome power of privately printed money like never before it would be a surprise.
Any demands for new coal stations, solar, wind, are ultimately decided by the government creditor and ultimately to the awesome power to print that stuff. Tax payers might perhaps only have the capacity to pay the interest on the loans. I don’t understand how tax payers can fund anything other than debt re-payments.??
I remain skeptical that anything really holistic and well rounded is being done to save what is left of the environment in general.
30
No need to say “eventual bankruptcy”, methinks that target was achieved quite some time ago.
20
The big test is coming at the end of January. No wind. Maximum air conditioning. Will the inter connect from Victoria stay open.
481
I hope not. They need a reminder as to how dysfunctional their power system is.
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Remember that power coming over the Heywood interconnector is excess to Victorian needs. When it’s hot and calm in South Australia, then there are good odds that it is also hot and calm in Victoria. In particular the majority of wind farms in both states are geographically close (western Vic, eastern SA) so the same calm is likely to affect both sets.
All this adds up to periods where there will be high demand for air conditioning and low wind powered generation in both states at the same time. Victoria may well not have enough excess electricity for South Australia’s shortfall (particularly in the evening as PV drops off), even if the shortfall is within the load rating of the interconnectors (which are reduced in the heat).
If (When?) South Australia blacks out under these circumstances, I will at least have the satisfaction of being able to write another letter to Josh Frydenberg saying “I told you so, back in July”. All it will take is the same conditions as on Christmas Day in 2 or more weeks time.
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WTF did I write this time to trigger moderation? 😡
[I found nothing wrong with the comment and approved it. Sometimes the filtering logic is hard to figure out.] AZ
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It is kind of bizarre, isn’t it.
No point getting upset though.
just shoot an email to [email protected] with the time and date (copy it from the post in moderation) and someone will fix it as soon as they can.
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It was a peer review algorithm. It detected that you statements were arm waving without any support so it rejected them. Why it picked on you and not everyone else is the real mystery
36
Under that explanation, its a wonder ANY of Gee’s posts ever get through.
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Just watch when Victoria looses 25% of their electricity generation capacity !!
Hazelwood closure: higher costs and lower reliability
http://spectator.com.au/2016/11/hazelwood-closure/
Closure of Hazelwood coal-fired power station sees electricity bills soar by 36%
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4029098/Closure-coal-fired-power-station-electricity-bills-soar-36-cent.html
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“No longer economic to operate”.
‘We (Engie, copied from their home page) own and operate more than 3,550 MW (gross) of renewable (wind turbine), gas-fired and brown coal-fired generating plants in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia. Our retail business, Simply Energy, serves markets in Victoria, South Australia, NSW and Queensland.’
So far as I know, Hazelwood is 1,600 MW of that 3,550.
Closure of Hazelwood would take a big slice out of that. But Engie is not complaining about the closure, so presumably expects to maintain or increase its profit with higher prices for electricity. Maintaining, or even mothballing Hazelwood would reduce those prices.
40
Aw! Come on folks. Be reasonable.!
As a responsible government We, the South Australian government can only screw our constituents and voters for a somewhat limited amount of taxes to run the State.
You have to realise that after paying all those support payments to the renewable Wind energy and Solar energy companies to erect their turbines and build their solar farms that there isn’t any money left over to maintain the old and aging power lines the Wind Turbine farms and Solar Farms rely on to get their power to you, our respected constituents and most importantly, our voters.
And then there is the drain of the expenditures on the State purse to cover the guarantees to the renewable energy companies that they will get paid for power which they might have produced but didn’t because the lines can’t be maintained to transmit that clean corruption free renewable power to the consumers due to the lack of money to maintain those power lines.
An unfortunate occurrence that we share with the German government who cannot afford to build the under North Sea power lines to a couple of large North Sea wind farms.
And so just like our wind farms the owners of those North Sea wind farms have to compensated out of the State purse to pay for the power they would have produced but didn’t because there were no power lines there to transmit that power from the wind farms to the consumers.
We assure our voters that upon being elected to the next parliament at the next election our policy will be to both increase the amount and numbers of renewable energy wind turbines to guarantee South Australia’s Renewable energy status on the world scene and to upgrade the aging South Australian power infrastructure by 2025 if the power line/ grid system warrants such expenditure.
Any claims that nobody will have any power at all by that stage due to the collapse of the south Australian grid and power generation system is merely the opposition once again throwing nasty epithets of blatant incompetency and rigidity of policy against the integrity and honesty and very hard work the party has immersed itself in to make South Australia a beacon of light in the whole world wide global scene of the pollution free, cheap and reliable Renewable Energy industry.
Damn!
Will somebody get a bloody torch so I can finish reading this press release to the media !
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Excellent blog ROM, so the South Australia ‘renewables’ baby is sick and getting sicker by the day. But the green climate doctors say the baby must have more of the same medicine!!
When will Mum and Dad wake up !!
GeoffW
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all this medical talk makes me think the SA government may be be perpetratingMunchausen by proxy
Of course, I am assuming that, aside from the seemingly robust schemes in place to funnel taxpayers money into the (offshore?)accounts of “renewable” providers, there is method in their madness, which is, on the face of it, being pretty generous.
10
Boom tomes coming to South Australia.
SA is about to see the closure of all industry reliant on electricity,; but a boom in unemployment is just a few weeks away.
If any politician tries to promote “renewables” after this fiasco they should be removed from office immediately.
KK
502
Keith,
Try this one from long ago:
Don’t pee on my foot; then try to tell me it’s raining pilgrim!
62
But unemployed people are renewable people. Isn’t that the whole point?
81
Don’t be too sure that this crowd has any intentions of renewal. One of their objectives is a lower world population.
I have mentioned before, but say it again. In the 1980s a journalist asked NSW ALP treasurer Ken Booth :” But what if the state is bankrupt?”
His reply: “It’s not possible for a state to be bankrupt.”
The election of the Greiner government saved NSW from this, but Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia with ALP governments all suffered the consequences of this policy. It seems that South Australia, and possibly Victoria too, are furiously embarked on the same path of destruction.
30
Keith…Boom times coming to SA .Industry Leaving and Unemployment..
Exactly. I like your foresight.
Centrelink staff Up
Solicitors in financial Bankruptcy. Up
Social Workers to aid above. Up
Police to combat Crime. Up
Social Workers to combat Crime. Up
Court Personnel to deal with Crime. Up
Solicitors to represent Crims. Up
Academics in Humanities to smugly potificate upon Rising Crime and inequality. Up
More Academics in Humanities to smugly accuse Conservatives of being responsible for all old and new rotten things. Up
Academics in ‘Sciency “departments to berate soft academics and soft society for not holding Climate Change responsible for everything and requiring another 1.5 Trillion per year in righteous compensation to all academia to fix it. UP…UP…UP and never ending…
It is An Unemployment Led Public Purse Economic Recovery.
Coming To SA and a preview for Victoria, and maybe QLD, of what is soon to come.
141
And when the workers go home at night;
all that is produced for a hard days work is another pile of paper!!
Geoff W
61
What is not to like? I am so glad that you upside-downers are in the:
‘southern hemisphere!!
30
Which, I am sure you have noted, is the top of the world. The heavy side of the globe is in the North, so gravity dictates that that is the bottom hemisphere.
30
Hi Ted and Will,
It’s been so long since I studied that stuff that I always had the impression that the South had the big bulge.
A lazy mynde making assumptions, north always being shown as Up and “stuff” always sags to the bottom.
Thanks.
KK
30
We attempt to exist on a spinning planet. Please observe a spinning top with asymmetrical angular momentum along the spin axis. In a gravitational field; if possible, nutation forces the greater angular momentum to be counter (away) to the combined center (centre) of gravity,UP!! This Earth spins within the combined weird gravitational field of all 10 major bodies in this space roving Solar system Can there be any possible agreement as to which way is UP?? 🙂 …Perhaps this is the reason for WAR.
All the best! -will-
01
This afternoon I went to my local Woolies less than a kilometre from my house but clearly in a different “power supply area” (not knowing the technical term) because my power had stayed on. There were staff galore restocking the freezers and unusually, there were no bakery items at all. The checkout guy was ropeable – he said the power went off at 2:30am and had just come back about an hour before I got there. He was scathing of Weatherill and said SA was the laughing stock of the world. I sympathised, mentioning the Greens and their silly windmills.
This particular outage was no doubt a local event caused by the high winds, but I could tell that everyone there at Woolies was fed up with the situation the government has created.
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Ian Hill:
I’ve just got my electricity supply back after 39 hours. Most of the Onkaparinga Valley was blacked out, but Balhannah to the S had some businesses operating with power without interruption but most shut. Lobethal 6 km to the N was blacked out for less than 16 hours, which is surprising becase our power lines come from there, but The Lights of Lobethal are a tourist attraction at this time of the year. Equally Hahndorf is a tourist destination not far from Balhannah and got their electricity back on very quickly. I have a suspicion about how priorities for repairs were decided.
I went up to Lobethal mid afternoon to pick up ice and supplies and ran into 2 blokes I know moderately. This is a ‘safe’ Liberal seat ( except at the last Federal election) but I can assure you that neither of what I had classified as (at best) swinging voters were going to vote Labor at the next election. Everybody is sick and tired of the Labor Government, but they will cling to office for the next 15 months, probably making things worse.
The extraordinary thing is not that Weatherill etc. are dills, but that the Premiers of Vic. & Qld. (and whathisname the Federal Leader of the Opposition) want to follow the same stupid policy.
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Thirty nine hours – long time Graeme! Of course people in Queensland have gone for a week or more without it after a tropical cyclone. The longest I’ve ever been without electricity during daylight was about 8 hours in 2000, but that was a problem confined to the apartments where I lived at the time.
I’m just a rookie but I have a feeling that record will be broken in the near future though!
60
Try weeks without power after a bushfire as in Kinglake Ranges in Victoria in 2009!
50
Up-Date:
As at 11:30 am. Saturday 31/1216 parts of Stirling and Aldgate in the Adelaide Hills are still without electricity. [And Mylor (a few kms. south of Aldgate) from 5 pm. news. Store there talking of $2000+ stock dumped and $8000 lost trade].
For those unfamiliar with the Adelaide Hills these 2 towns run together and are the biggest population area outside of Mt. Barker (also Adelaide Hills not the WA one, even though they are named after the same person). Passed through Stirling just afterwards and noticed than many businesses were still closed.
This area doesn’t vote for Labor, I think Greens come second. If there is a Labor candidate at the next election I would advise him to avoid the area, as the locals still have supplies available of tar and feathers.
20
Strange that stores that have frozen goods don’t have emergency diesel generators.
Here in my part of the French Pyrenees where power from the EDF nuclear power stations is reliable, most of the large supermarkets have standby generators as do the small ones near the end of long overhead power lines. This id because the winds can, and do, bring down power lines.
00
Victoria and NSW get similar weather conditions but neither get the same supply interpretations …yet!
If you can’t fit a cigarette paper between both sides of goverment, both federal and state, how do we stop the madness? That madness being throwing our taxes at multi nationals with subsidys. To do little more than pad their bottom lines.
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Meanwhile in sunn
yi Queenslandistan on a totally different topic which I’m sure has absolutely no connection at all with your comment…From the 1 Jan 2017 in Qld, Fuel sellers will be required to meet targets for the sale of ethanol-blended petrol and bio-based diesel.
Dalby BioRefinery (United Petroleum) is Australia’s first grain to ethanol plant with capacity to produce 76 million litres of ethanol per year from red sorghum. That is also the largest bioethanol supplier in Queensland.
How’s the timeline…
27 April 2015 : Dalby biorefinery operator United Petroleum wants ethanol mandate introduced before 2030. (ABC news.)
18 May 2015 : Puma Energy International B.V. is believed to be eyeing acquisitions in Australia. United Petroleum Pty Ltd and Viva Energy Australia Ltd. are both exploring the sale of their petrol stations by way of an initial public offering, they seem like obvious candidates for Puma. (Bloomberg business news.)
17 December 2015 : Queensland Liquid Fuel Supply (Ethanol and Other Biofuels Mandate) Amendment Act 2015. (Qld Parliament)
14 Aug 16 : United Petroleum Pty Ltd is offering of 150 million in aggregate principal amount of its Senior Secured Notes due 2020 to finance certain planned acquisitions and for general corporate purposes. (Bloomberg business news)
Look for United to
investsink more investors’ cash into bioshenanigans in the near future! I do hope the investors know the only reason their investment project is going ahead is because of a regulation that can evaporate overnight with one election.60
Get ready to replace the carb floats in your classic cars. They now make plastic floats of SU H4 and HD series carbs that stay up in ethanol blended petrol.
Also make sure that the 2 stroke oil is well mixed especially if the mixed fuel has sat. Fuel with ethanol in it has a tendency for the oil to separate out from the mix.
Luckily in NY you can still get 91 (R+M) octane fuel ethanol free. It sells very well, especially in areas with a lot of boats or classic cars!
There is a cellulosic ethanol mandate here in the US as well. The only problem is there is not plant to make such a fuel in any quantity. For all practical purposes it does not exist.
20
12 years ago, four hurricanes touched every county in Florida, save four.
Since then, we have replaced about 85% of our major trunk utility poles with ‘200mph’ concrete or metal poles,
and hardened the vast majority of our cell towers. Backup power is almost universal for supermarkets & filling stations.
We have not had the resources for heavy investment in alternative energy. and the small amount we have is mostly solar
at coal plants, where it can do the least harm in terms of load mismanagement. The point: a really bad year focused the attention
of government on the real post-storm issues, & many were addressed. May SA have similar good fortune-I can speak from personal experience
that bad storms are tough on folks.
352
I wonder if the government and Gangrenes will understand that the solution to their self-imposed problems is gas, coal or nuclear generation to replace the windmills?
Unfortunately I think their answer will be battery storage at home or pumped hydro storage. As there are few or no suitable natural sites for hydro storage I’m afraid they’ll want to build “turkey’s nest” reservoirs on top of 100m cliffs next to the ocean. It will be hugely expensive.
221
300 power lines down? How can you do that? Again this needs explanation. South Australia is not famous for its forests.
Gusts to 110km/hr are nothing compared to the howling winds of the Chinooks in Colorado every spring. Three days of howling wind.
Gusts are just 9-10 on the Beaufort scale, at best a Tropical storm, a category 1 Cyclone maybe. Florida gets 15 cyclones a year and that is the climate.
The last time ten transmission towers crumpled or blew over? Now the power lines? We are not talking about a real storm by tropical standards.
Either there is some very dodgy engineering or a total lack of maintenance in the system and of course, the windmills will be off as usual. If such devastation can be wrought by a storm which would be minor in Queensland, something is very wrong with South Australia. 75% of the people live in Adelaide (1.251 of 1.677 million) but 120,000 homes are off? That’s one third of the population of South Australia without power? Beyond belief.
Weatherill is aptly named. South Australia will be shut for business very soon when Hazelwood turns off.
431
The wind design criteria changes dependent on location and importance of the structure. AS1170.2 provides guidance for determine wind loading:
https://law.resource.org/pub/nz/ibr/as-nzs.1170.2.2011.pdf
The map on page 16 shows the different zones in Australia. SA is not particularly exposed to high winds. Wind speed of 120kph is unusual in that part of the country. According to table 3.1 it is a 1 in 10 year event for that region.
The root cause of the power outage will no doubt take time to emerge. The SA power supply system is evolving rapidly and change inevitably involves disruption. Having fluctuating loads is bad for a system. Having fluctuating supply is worse than bad. It will take considerable development to reliably integrate wind turbine and solar power generation into the system.
One of my observations here in Melbourne is that my trees are growing faster compared with 25 years ago when I arrived here. The trees become rangy and unstable quite quickly; within five years of planting. I have lost some large branches and even full trees in moderate wind. I can actually see some broadleaf weeds growing on a daily basis. I suspect this is not unique to Melbourne. So there is some possibility that extra CO2 is increasing the maintenance demand for tree trimming around power lines and councils are not responding to the demand.
90
You are right. SA is not particularly subject to high winds. So you are suggesting they saved some money by building lighter weight infrastructure within the regulations? That is cutting it fine for energy security and it does not say much about the regulations. 110km/hr gusts are not unusual anywhere in the world.
Besides, the same engineering is used across the world and rapidly built steel radar towers in Britain could not be felled by German bombing but SA towers 70 years later can be blown over by a wind gust? As for trees, 90% of SA is desert where a snake has a panoramic view. When was the last time Victoria lost 300 power lines were brought down by trees or ten towers were crumpled?
This is for a tiny population, 1/6th of NSW and propped up financially by the other states. As they shut down every industry, most employees are public servants. Their attempt to be the lowest CO2 region in the world is pure fantasy. All their CO2 blows to Victoria anyway and we don’t lose power lines.
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I am not “suggesting” that they saved some money but stating clearly that the building standards in SA regarding wind are less demanding than in many other locations. All good engineering is done to a standard consistent with value for money. The only consistency with good engineering is achieving value for money. It would be wasteful to design structures that can withstand a category 5 cyclone to be built in SA.
Given than there were so many locations affected I suspect it was a large number of low importance structures were damaged. This article with photos from The Australian certainly suggests that trees falling were an issue:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/storms-leave-one-in-five-homes-powerless-in-south-australia/news-story/3a03af074dd30fb19dd6d856588d5422
I am suggesting that councils and poles and wires owners may not have upgraded their inspection routines to cope with increased growth rate of trees – a factor of increasing CO2. Also lopping and felling trees without council permission will incur a penalty in most locations. These could be contributing factors to the damage. Even if poles were designed for a category 5 cyclone they will not cope with a 5 tonne tree falling across the lines. Victoria has been increasing the amount of underground cabling following the black Saturday fires. Underground cables are not as prone to wind damage and less likely to spark fires.
50
“they will not cope with a 5 tonne tree falling across the lines”
That is mostly a matter of maintenance.
Certainly only local lines should be low enough for trees, and in those areas trees should be chopped back to minimise this issue.
Of course it is highly unlikely that the Lab/Green SA government will have done proper maintenance because they are very much against it, just like for fire control.
101
That is not the case, maintenance and line clearances are standardised across the nation, they DO differ between cyclone prone zones and zones that do not have cyclones (Clearances are doubled in cyclone prone areas). The Electricity Authorities CANNOT be fined for clearing in clearance zones. The failures ARE a matter for the Electricity Distributors and failures ARE THEIR responsibility. Having said that if I recall the limit in temperate zones is around 75kph, for winds above this the government will not hold the distributors responsible, so local infrastructure there isn’t going to survive 120kph.
Australia is quickly moving to move infrastructure in cyclone prone zones underground. I would recommend underground infrastructure in bushfire prone areas as well. The Ash Wednesday report said quite clearly that the big problem in Vic and SA is poor maintenance of ties, the clamps that attach the wires to the insulators in above ground infrastructure. My Guess is that ties are the main problem now.
50
Agreed. That’s 300 5 tonne trees falling on power lines in a desert? Where are all the hundreds of fallen trees? Victoria spends $100Million a year clearing trees from power lines but South Australia does not have enough trees to wipe out 1/3 of the state. If they are transmission lines, no tree is that tall.
As for ‘value for money’ engineering, you would not expect that in your car or aircraft or balcony or a high rise building, a serious tradeoff in safety and cost is not legal. The interpretation of good engineering is odd and having 120,000 homes without power is not good value but utterly irresponsible whether politics or engineering, if that is really the case and not just an exaggerated cover story. Good engineering means not failing but not overspending. Widespread failure is not acceptable and there is nothing to indicate anything out of the very ordinary for storms in SA. These are simple structures and 300 lines is a lot of failure to explain with the bad things happen argument.
120
I have seen more than 300 trees across power lines in one trip home across Sydney north shore suburbs some years ago. Some houses were without power for a week. My normal 1 hour drive took 4 hours.
Without accurate information on the failures I can quite easily envisage 300 incidents of trees across power lines in Adelaide. Most of the houses are in and around Adelaide. Theses are well treed areas.
The most affected households are in Bridgewater and Hahndorf. These are well treed areas:
https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgVfsvk086GjfoItZ
https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgVVLByOPqre-lJ9-
https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgVihYDWXv4Zb4ZhF
There is a conflict between greening areas and lowering risk of damage from fallen trees or branches. We had a classic case here in Victoria with a property owner who was fined by the local council for making a fire break around his house after being denied permission. His house was the only one still standing in the area after black Saturday. He was still forced to pay the fine despite his action saving his house.
70
The original designers and builders cannot foresee how infrastructure will be used or abused over its life. There is always a requirement for reasonable care and maintenance. For example you might reasonably expect 50,000km out of a set of car tyres but give me the keys to your car and I can prove they are only good for 50km. Likewise if councils bring in regulations that limit tree lopping and/or greening policies that increase tree numbers then, putting overhead power lines at increased risk, that is beyond the designers control. The designer would never envisage the lines having serious exposure to trees falling.
I did not find an example of tree lopping issues in SA but here is an example situation in Sydney:
http://www.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/264908/161024_COUNCIL_ITEM32.pdf
30
Even 300 trees across 300 individual lines does not explain 125,000 homes without power. That is 1/3 of the houses in the state, not a street or 300 streets.
To take down so many houses is not a local problem but transmission lines down and no tree did that.
As last time, we are guessing and postulating based on lifetime experience like driving across Sydney.
There was no explanation last time for ten crumpled transmission towers. I seriously doubt what we are being told. Remember, the government is ready with its disinformation, especially the Energy Minister who criticized BHP for not building their own power plant, knowing the risks under a Labor Green government. That is some kind of cheek.
At no point is the Weatherill government taking responsibility for electricity. They are blaming everyone else and of course the closure of
all the coal generators has nothing to do with it. Lines break and towers fall, but once a month since they closed the last power station? What a coincidence! Terrible storms apparently and fallen trees and Peter Pan.
30
At least once every three or five years, the remnants of a NWest cyclone or tropical low tear through parts of SA, unleashing mostly flooding rains and occasional strong winds. Just like this year.
110
We are supposed to believe that monthly blackouts are the result of a storm pattern which is so regular? Then why four time since closing the last coal fired power station? Acts of God? Bad luck? Four times? Someone is not telling the truth. An insurance investigator would not believe a word of it.
60
Firstly, wind speeds up to 120kph were recorded in parts of the Adelaide Hills. Secondly there were 350 line breaks and 137,000 houses without power. Thirdly the Adelaide Hills Council is “Green”. As I have posted above the effect seems to have little to do with the amount of trees generally, but more with where the effort is directed. Klose’s the local supermarket chain have installed generators at their Lobethal and Woodside stores (after past blackouts), but their Littlehampton and Mt. Barker stores apparently don’t need them. The same with the Lobethal Bakery chain, Lobethal and Woodside need generators. Possibly Klose’s Balhannah store will get a generator now that some businesses (Lobethal Bakery/Mitre 10) in the town have turned out not to lose power despite the rest of the town being blocked out, and their competitors in Hahndorf and Mt. Barker having a lot less problems with supply.
For all this, trees and parts of trees were down this time despite surviving the last few storms. It doesn’t help that the electricity lines run along the main roads and the trees along them are (reluctantly) trimmed, usually after the last blackout.
20
‘More bad luck for South Australia’
The more they rely on renewable power, the unluckier they will get in terms of reliable electricity supply.
291
The question is why power lines fall and towers crumple without explanation, but perhaps that is really just the cover story for the failure of the windmills? Unless of course the windmills require a vastly greater distribution network rather than just a few power stations and that these have been built cheaply, shoddily and perhaps from inferior Chinese steel and aluminium. There could be a real scandal here if Whyalla and Portland are closing for lack of adequate reliable power while the SA government is overseeing the use of unsound and inferior Chinese steel and aluminium. SA may have an Australia last policy, again to move all the CO2 to China.
190
You might well be onto something here TdeF.
Remember when Gillard and her Ministry of Truth were blaming the cost of electricity not on her idiotic “Carbon Tax” and RET’s, but on electricity transmission and distribution companies “gold plating” the system?
That would be at the time that a lot of graft was spent on useless windmills and solar panels.
The people building those could quite conceivably made the transmission system as cheap as possible in order to avoid this flak imposed on imagination.
A hard one for which investigation could provide evidence.
80
Has this anything to do with transmission direction? Conventionally is voltage not stepped down gradually from high at the generating sources to the 240v or 415v at the users end, with cable size reducing gradually, much like tree branches? So is it the addition and the growth of multiple widespread wind generating sources that is stressing lower-specs transmission lines?
30
No, it’s just the fact that distributors aren’t held to account for survivability of infrastructure in winds of over 75kph. If you aren’t held to account then you don’t build for it. In Cyclone areas a lot of the critical stuff is underground where the wind don’t blow.
60
Chinese steel wasn’t a factor; most of these lines were built 50-60 years ago and remain so because the State Government wouldn’t allow the Grid operator to raise electricity bills to allow for upgrades.
30
What about the wind farms? Surely these are new lines and there are a lot of wind farms and no coal burning generators. This might be a very fragile, quickly built and inadequate distribution system built purely for the wind farms, not that the government would say so.
80
You make your luck.
20
We make our own luck in life. The people of South Australia will continue to have bad luck until they get rid of the climate catastrophists.
321
At the rate South Australia is blowing fuses I’m wondering if they’ll survive even the few days left until next year arrives. 😉
Surely there must be some hint in the government’s mind that they’re getting something wrong.
251
There’s a lot of memes going around at the moment lamenting all the celebrities that have died in 2016.
A favourite is that Keith Richards seems to outlast them all.
The question is . . . will South Australia go down the tubes before Keith Richards. 😉
110
Roy Hogue:
You are remote from the SA government and so are assuming that they have ‘a mind’. Their sole effort is to “save face” and pretend that “renewables work”. Yes, there are indications (no announcements, press releases or even comments) that the semi-mothballed CCGT installations in SA are running a lot more and that some wind farms are being (illegally) curtailed. The later presumably by payment for electricity NOT delivered (but MIGHT have been.)
40
Indeed the NEM has said that SA must have a minimum fossil fuel capacity online at all times to deal with interconnect failures.
30
Graeme,
I understand you but they probably do have a mind. Unfortunately some minds work and others are dysfunctional. We have our share both kinds too. And nothing sticks around longer than a bad idea.
10
Reality is brutally unforgiving of ignorance!
210
“Reality is brutally unforgiving of ignorance!”
The Climate Clowns staunchly defend their God given right to remain ignorant. This is truly their ‘pursuit of happiness’!
112
Tim Foolery was back on ABC scaremongering his usual doom and gloom, all gunna die rhetoric again this morning.
91
Every year it is said he lives with a family of kangaroos. He learns the secrets of Australia and knows about the times past, the times of great kangaroos. Only Tim can lead us out of this mess. I hope no one invested in his failed hot rocks. “The technology is straightforward”, except it did not work and how would he know and all the directors were on $400K wages as they went through our $93Million.
61
‘Every year it is said he lives with a family of
kangaroosNumbats.’61
Seems wet trees and wet ground and strong winds make for intermittent power.
Such things happen often in the Puget Lowland (Seattle area) of Washington State.
The favored response is to “flood” the area with repair crews from all nearby utility districts.
It is important to get power returned before follow-on problems become serious. Things like freezers in homes, grocery stores, production plants, and so on (think ice cream, meats) cannot go days without electricity.
It would be nice to have a report on these things — not paywalled.
110
Read the comments here:
http://powerlines.seattle.gov/2015/08/30/crews-make-progress-on-outage-restorations-focus-on-lake-forest-park-push-for-monday-finish/
60
lengthy must-read:
29 Dec: Australian: Michael Owen: Renewable energy push to hit Labor’s heartland
Labor’s traditional working-class supporters will bear the brunt of spiking electricity prices and power failures in the fallout from the South Australian, Victorian and Queensland governments’ push towards ambitious renewable energy targets.
Energy experts have warned the shutting down of more coal-fired power plants and the rise of renewables risks leading to a future where wealthier households can pay for better reliability of supply while others are left in the dark…
The Australian Energy Market Commission has warned that electricity prices are set to surge during the next two years, largely driven by the close of coal-fired power stations in South Australia and Victoria and ongoing investment in wind generation.
Australian Stock Exchange data showed yesterday that base future contract prices for March were highest in South Australia, which yesterday had its third major blackout in four months. For companies to buy a megawatt of electricity in March, it would cost South Australian buyers almost $152.91, compared with $100 in Queensland, $63.75 in NSW and $54.50 in Victoria…
???Climate Institute head of policy Olivia Kember said there was a real risk of large numbers of households leaving the grid, which likely would be the result of ongoing policy failure by federal and state governments. “It’s not just a problem for lower-income households, but also apartment dwellers and large industry that needs grid-based power,” she said. “Currently we are seeing coal stations close with only six months’ notice, and no signals to tell the market what is needed to replace them.”…
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/climate/renewable-energy-push-to-hit-labors-heartland/news-story/866351e1dfc1b6db632c5585b6da77f0
140
2004: Blair ‘shocked’ by climate change
“How many hurricanes and tornadoes will it take for the prime minister to realise that paying lip service to the environment is just no use?”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/3654042.stm
* * *
How many windmills & solar panels must SA instal before SA prevents it’s first ‘extreme’ global warming storm event?
150
Adelaide could fall off the planet and the Earth’s climate would not skip a beat.
171
The people of Adelaide are only worried about their climate. They want to be the lowest CO2 city in the world. Local problems require local solutions, all built with money from the rest of Australia with twice the GST income of WA.
102
It’s called Snowtown economics. Killing off any reason to live or grow a business there.
There’s ‘No Town Like Snowtown’, for Energy.
40
South Australia;
Will the last person out please switch off the lights!
The torch is over here if you want to find the light switch!
151
Oh, Hang on the torch isn’t working – Oh that’s right solar powered torches don’t work when it’s dark!
120
As Tony Abbott said, Socialism masquerading as environmentalism.
If CO2 cannot change the temperature, how does it cause “hurricanes and tornadoes”? Statistically there are fewer. How does it cause sea level rises? We had both those things before the IPCC existed and Climate Change was invented as the new scare of the Socialist left. Ten years after Kevin Rudd’s greatest moral challenge of a generation, Blair should be demanding answers not action. The rich caring left are spending trillions in their own backyards so they alone will be saved from CO2.
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27 Dec: The Atlantic: Robinson Meyer: Are Climate Scientists Ready for Trump?
Maybe not.
SAN FRANCISCO—How should climate scientists react to a president-elect who calls global warming a “hoax?” How much should they prepare for his administration? And should they ready themselves for the worst?
These questions loomed over the fall conference of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) this month, the largest annual gathering of Earth scientists in the world. How the scientific profession chooses to answer them may decide whether the United States can summon the political will necessary to finally vanquish climate-change denialism—or whether it will continue to muddle through on the issue, not really attending to it, as it has for the past three decades…
This year, too, they talked about politics. On the first day of the conference, a set of climate scientists talked to a packed room about how best to communicate the reality of global warming. Naomi Oreskes, a historian of science at Harvard University and the co-author of Merchants of Doubt, urged researchers to keep their public messaging on the issue simple.
“For us as scientists, simple feels simplistic. This leaves people confused, and it leaves the door open for climate-change denial,” she said. The solution was for researchers to just get over their fear of telling simple, emotional stories.
“Communicating science is not the same as doing science,” she said. The standing-room-only crowd nodded along…
At noon on Tuesday, climate-activism groups held a protest to assert the reality of climate change and “stand up for science.”…
It was a frightening time for climate scientists…
The 2016 meeting of the AGU was not supposed to feel like this. Back in October, its schedule had seemed upbeat…
Then Trump won…READ ALL
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/12/are-climate-scientists-ready-for-trump/511604/
all these and more can be found by clicking on Robinson Meyer (LinkedIn Education: Northwestern University Bachelor of Arts BA, Music 2009 – 2013) at the top of the above piece. young Meyer is obviously no “climate expert”:
Can Trump Reverse Obama’s Arctic-Drilling Ban?
Probably not, at least without Congress’s help.
Robinson Meyer Dec 21, 2016
President Trump and the Unnatural World
David Biello, author of The Unnatural World, talks about the paradox of climate change in the Trumpocene.
Robinson Meyer Dec 21, 2016
Busy Times at the World’s Largest Polar Bear Prison
Arctic warming means more conflict between people and the giant predators.
Ed Yong and Robinson Meyer Dec 16, 2016
What President Trump Will Mean for Earth’s Climate
He could prove cataclysmic.
Robinson Meyer Nov 9, 2016
Not Doomed Yet: The Election Is Today
It’s time to vote. (FOR HILLARY, ROBINSON MEYER SHOULD HAVE ADDED)
Robinson Meyer Nov 8, 2016
28 Dec: New American: William F. Jasper: Biggest Fake News Story: Global Warming and Phony Consensus
The title of a December 27 article in The Atlantic asks: “Are Climate Scientists Ready for Trump?”…
Meyer uses the term “climate-change denial” (or denialism or denialist) five times in the article, a pretty strong clue that he resides in the Al Gore/Leonardo DiCaprio camp of intolerance when it comes to diversity of opinion on scientific matters…
The New American has repeatedly reported on the fraudulent methodology used by Oreskes and Cook to arrive at their ludicrous near-unanimous consensus claims…
However, no amount of debunking, and no amount of evidence, will change the “crisis” mindset that grips many of the media commentators…READ ALL
http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/24942-biggest-fake-news-story-global-warming-and-phony-consensus
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Trump Versus The Green Blob: The Battle That Will Define His Presidency
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/12/19/trump-versus-the-green-blob-the-battle-that-will-define-his-presidency/
GO TRUMP !!!!!!
50
The real question is, will it happen again? And how frequently?
60
With global cooling we can expect more severe weather, more often.
80
Correct el gordo: that’s what the data shows. But who takes any notice of data when you have models.
100
‘Adelaide was hit by a cyclone in 1948, widespread damage in 1954, much damage in 1927, and in 1910 and 1916.’
Most of these weather events happened during a cool phase.
100
And I draw your attention to this graph Jo put up a few years ago, Echuca airport is not far from South Australia.
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/guest/bryce-ian/echuca-solar.png
Its quite clear that cool temperatures cause havoc and as we are entering such a phase the authorities should be thinking infrastructure, replacing wooden poles with steel or concrete as Richard Ilfeld suggests.
40
Fair suck! Must be a bloody long landing strip. Echuca is closer to Melbourne than it is to SA. It’s even closer to that other place… On the other side of the creek. Moama’s there too. NSW! That’s the place. Yes. They’ve got farms and roads and things.
40
WC its closer to Melbourne than Adelaide, but when we talk of climate change over 130 years it encompasses south east Australia.
20
Will high winds happen again?
Will regional air pressure differences happen again? Will temperature differentials across the region happen again? Almost certainly this will happen again.
How often? If only someone had done some research on this and made a computer model that could give realistic probable outcomes, then there would be a foundation upon which to build.
40
28 Dec: RealClimateScience: Tony Heller: 100% Of US Warming Is Due To NOAA Data Tampering
Climate Central just ran this piece, which the Washington Post picked up on. They claimed the US was “overwhelmingly hot” in 2016, and temperatures have risen 1,5°F since the 19th century. (LINK)…READ ALL
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/100-of-us-warming-is-due-to-noaa-data-tampering/
91
Graph of USCRN and Satellite data over the USA since USCRN was created
A slight El Nino bulge during 2015-2016, but nothing to write home about.
https://s19.postimg.org/88kzxr62b/USCRN_et_al.png
62
Great article. I posted it on Farcebook. I like a comment someone made at the bottom:
“Nothing gets the Left more unhinged than laughing at them over their faux climate change, global warming, global cooling, micro-aggressions!”
181
It’s all about a storm, as it was before, and has nothing to do with poorly designed for low cost transmission feeder lines from wind turbine sites to the grid.
This is a message from your local ALP bloke in SA
141
I guess the “good” thing about all the lines down is that it has temporarily reduced the state’s electricity demand. Silver lining and all that…
Sorry South Australians – this sort of infrastructure failure really isn’t funny
90
Apparently the Electoral Commission has announced electoral boundary changes in SA that reduce or eliminate the gerrymander there and points towards a much fairer next state election and possible defeat for Labor.
The SA Labor Government is appealing to the High Court against the boundary changes, using taxpayer’s monies of course.
70
Funny, I thought they had storms every year for the last few million years but only this year has the state blacked our four times. Must be bad luck. Yep.
100
You beauty, I just received my power bill here in SA, and it’s gone down for the first time in recent years. Oh, that’s not right,when I adjust for those periods where we had no power the bill actually went up. Bugger!
160
Note that it occurred to Malinauskas that the system might not withstand wind gusts of 100 kph, but then the subroutine “Crimestop” was enabled.
The Crimestop subroutine runs in Jay’s head when he imagines losing the next election.
“Crimestop” means to rid oneself of unwanted thoughts immediately, i.e., thoughts that interfere or disagree with the ideology of the Party. This way, a person avoids committing thoughtcrime.
In the novel, we hear about crimestop through the eyes of protagonist Winston Smith:
The mind should develop a blind spot whenever a dangerous thought presented itself. The process should be automatic, instinctive. Crimestop, they called it in Newspeak.
He set to work to exercise himself in crimestop. He presented himself with propositions—’the Party says the earth is flat’, ‘the party says that ice is heavier than water’—and trained himself in not seeing or not understanding the arguments that contradicted them.
Orwell also describes crimestop from the perspective of Emmanuel Goldstein in the book The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism:
Crimestop means the faculty of stopping short, as though by instinct, at the threshold of any dangerous thought. It includes the power of not grasping analogies, of failing to perceive logical errors, of misunderstanding the simplest arguments if they are inimical to Ingsoc, and of being bored or repelled by any train of thought which is capable of leading in a heretical direction. Crimestop, in short, means protective stupidity.[7]
40
Want to bet that Weatherill will be around for the next election? Especially if it means Labor has to get a whole 50% to win.
I fully expect he will resign later in 2117, once the internal party fighting is over; although this time it is likely that the various possibles will be trying very hard not to “win”. I don’t know if they will try the old “woman premier” last resort this time.
Possibly Koutsantonis – STOP LAUGHING CROWEATERS. Anybody who can blame BHP for being without power on them NOT building their own power station, when their plans were rejected by this same government is obviously capable of going into the election claiming they should be returned because they did such a good job. Some will still believe them, but they will do well if the primary vote for Labor reaches 33%.
30
“…I’ve only ever had to worry about making the right decisions…”
Judging by the actions of the SA government, I assume he really does worry that he might inadvertently make the right decisions.
10
Emergency Services Minister Peter Malinauskas said: “This has been the busiest year on record for our state emergency services. We’ve had double the number of calls of a calendar year.’’
Oh!! Another increase in our emergency services levy coming based on this. No worries it will match the increases in our NRM Levy, our power and water bills. One would hate to thing any of these government induced bills were to get out of sinc!!
10
Off topic;
Phil Jones of the University of East Anglia’s “Climate Research Unit” [ CRU ] has resigned / retired and is being replaced by the equally compromised Climate Gate data manipulator, Tim Osborn.
To be quite cynical, Jone’s political antennae may have suggested to him that with Brexit and Theresa May and therefore the British no longer beholden to the rabid climate change ideology of the EU, the Trump phenomenon in the USA , Marie Le Pen a possible and potential president of France, Merkel and her “Energiewend”, the “transition” to “renewable energy” star in Germany now going down in a spectacular self immolation brought on by both the deprivations of the “Energiewende” on the living standards of the German citizens and the uncontrolled “refugee” debacle, Girt Wilders and his right wing party in the Netherlands, An Austrian Presidential election that came within whisker of electing a right wing climate skeptic president .
Plus, plus many other indicators that to Jones might have said, time to get out and leave the odorous obnoxity of trying to explaining away all of the CRU’s past and present climate data manipulation to some inevitable future Parliementary “Inquiry” or Royal Commission to some other CRU data manipulating bunny to try and explain away.
151
A good scientific paper produced by Patrick Moore.
https://fcpp.org/sites/default/files/documents/Moore%20-%20Positive%20Impact%20of%20Human%20CO2%20Emissions.pdf
01
Just to prove how bad our network is. I can see my Crawford from my back yard and we had very strong winds which came from the opposite direction they normally do.
Several years ago I bought a shade cloth supported on a thin tubular aluminum frame it was held down by 4 tent pegs in the backyard and survived unscathed and was still erect the next day but our power network was not.
181
Ha a red thumb for stating the obvious in that Chinese structural engineering and manufacturing is far superior than ours.
Don’t be cross with me its not my fault we have embraced the green new world and put the kybosj on building dams, power stations bridges tunnels and so om
121
How are you holding up Crakar24 ?, I was thinking of all you poor South Aussies with eyes wide open that have to endure the unnecessary regression of your state to appease the deluded whims of madmen, don’t worry us Victorians will soon follow unless my plan to take over the world fails…again.
51
Whilst I like bashing ecostupidity as much as the next guy I think a few people here are missing the trees for the forest.
For SA the winds involved were on the upper bound of things, this means many trees in the Adelaide area would have experienced their strongest gusts ever causing them to fall down. This is why there are so many individual lines down, there are trees down all over the place. This is totally normal for this kind of storm in Adelaide. However given it’s occurred during the Christmas break I suspect SA Power networks might be having a bit of trouble getting enough teams out to deal with the many individual cases. The cleanup of individual trees I see as I’m driving around certainly seems to be taking longer than normal.
70
Hi Darrin,
Your right, power maintenance crews have just as much right to an uninterrupted Christmas break as everyone else.
Bit of a misspell there in: strongest gusts,
Should be: strongest gusts EVAH.
The basic problem is Governments which want to play dog and override engineering and scientific imperatives.
That’s not government.
KK
61
Yes it is. In this age, it most certainly is. What’s reality got to do with government? Nuffin!
40
What happened to “tree trimming” that prevents trees falling across power lines?? The philosophy of putting up a multitude of wind turbines doesn’t seem to slow the wind down; we need to put up more wind turbines and see if this concept really works!
10
O/T Good article.
http://manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2016/12/22/how-to-tell-whos-lying-to-you-climate-science-edition
41
You can’t say that renewables didn’t play a part in this – PV is useless in a storm and Wind has to shut down to prevent damage – so any time there is a storm, there is a potential shortfall to the SA grid. What you need to know is whether ALL the blackouts were driven by downed power lines or were SOME of them caused by inadequate generation. In a storm the public is not to know – any particular section blackout might be lines, might be lightning or might be lack of generation. The Power company sure isn’t going to tell you if your blackout was their fault!
111
There is widespread localised outages that indicates it was mostly local damage making restoration slow. However it seems that most of the SA wind turbines shut down around midnight Tuesday then into Wednesday morning as the front came through. That could be due to exceeding windspeed or loss of load.
Grid stability is technically challenging with multiple sources of generation that fluctuate wildly with wind conditions. There may have been over voltage in parts of the grid causing trips or even damage as demand at that time of day during the holiday period is quite low. At Snowtown the wind was calm at 19:30 then rose to over 70kph by 22:30. It peaked at 93kph at 0200. So output from Snowtown built from 20% at 1930 to 100% by 2200 and then started shutting down around 2300. The turbines remained offline till 0400.
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS60801/IDS60801.95670.shtml
https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgVlDt5pGIzZSVnum
Initial outages could have been caused by grid instability. A lot of visible local damage will likely mask grid scale events, particularly if it is not good news for the SA government leaning left federal ministers. It may not be good for the SA government to have readily available data on wind farm output because it will raise well directed questions.
50
Exactly my point, any grid scale generation failures would have been masked by the local events, its impossible to say there was no load shedding due to lack of supply without the numbers from the interconnectors. At least this time it seems to have been better managed.
20
Quite a lot of South Australia STILL without power……especially the Adelaide hills
https://outage.apps.sapowernetworks.com.au/OutageReport/OutageMap?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
50
Not acceptable in a civilised society.
Many heads need to roll over this but they won’t.
111
It’s Time!!
71
Good !
Serves them right !!!!!
40
Just found out the SA government gave me a Xmas present, electricity prices were 8 times higher than others states on DEC 25 & 26. Red thumb that,……
141
Would you Aussies just suck it up and live the tough outback life we all believe in?
Damn, forget high tech health care and hospitals. Instead, live with chooks and asses in the outback. You don’t need no electrons for that wonderful life.
50
That was in the good old days.
Nowadays we maintain our chooks and our asses in Parliament.
131
Yes, In Queensland we even have a Palace Chook.
30
Hi Mark,
Parts of the outback life can be liveable but there have been some very unpleasant experiences with the weather.
There was one incident, long ago, when a whole town had to be evacuated by train because of a disastrous heat wave.
In my back yard here, only a few miles from the coast, a concrete slab was 56.9 C or 134 C.
Inside, we had the electricity guzzling air conditioner running at times to make it bearable.
Christmas in Australia, what would we do without electricity.
KK
20
134F KK?
00
Sorry Annie, I was about to cross check by the old _32 or was it plus 32 then times 5/9 ,,,,,
And then I saw the C.
Yes 134 F.
Too hot to stand on for long barefooted.
10
“Christmas in Australia, what would we do without electricity.”
Let’s hope for the people’s sake that Adelaide doesn’t find out on one of those really hot days that they occasionally have..
That could get very nasty for a lot of older and very young people.
13
Being an engineer, all public structures must be built for safety, many that are frequented by people should be designed to withstand a once in a century storm.
Those people running SA must be totally uneducated, especially in history. Poor fella my country.
170
“totally uneducated” or simply
GREEN COMMUNISTS……….
82
I recall that journalist Max Walsh wrote in the since abandoned The Bulletin magazine in 2006 during the lead up to the 2007 election that Kevin07 led Union Labor to win that the ALP had effectively been taken over by the Union Movement, he called it a corporate style takeover.
Walsh wrote that the Unions were staffing their Labor Party with former Union trained executives, even shifting sitting Labor MPs from safe seats to make way. He said the objective was to control Australia via its governments. The present Union Labor Leader is of course former AWU senior executive Bill Shorten.
71
‘GREEN COMMUNISTS……….’
Pseudo Marxists.
31
Totally agree. No transmission towers should have crumpled in gusts of 110km/hr. They are wire frame structures designed for this as a minimum, not maximum wind load. Under that wind load should not be any sort of problem, but the SA government explains nothing. This is a cover up. Remotely plausible but highly unlikely and four time in four months. Must be Climate Change.
70
Lattice towers; not wire.
30
Finite element structures, which today can be modelled and tested for strength under load. The idea that any such structure would blow over or crumple in 115km/hr peak gusts is absurd. That is only car speed on a freeway with a bike on the roof and the bike does not disintegrate. It is beyond belief that such structures should collapse.
70
Is it possible the structures were made from Chinese steel?
10
Climate change. What else could it possibly be?
40
“wacko” is a regular contributor to HuffPo and LA Progressive – which has his “Trump Fatigue” piece on May 19! lol:
28 Dec: DailyCaller: Chris White: Wacko Academic Suggests Banning Trump From Twitter Over Climate Views
A California State, Sacramento, academic believes President-elect Donald Trump should be barred from using the Internet because he’s a global warming skeptic.
Joseph Palermo, a history professor and writer at the the university, suggested that Republicans who don’t believe in so-called man-made global warming should not be allowed to use anything produced using science.
“If Trump and his cohort believe the science of global warming is bogus then they shouldn’t be allowed to use the science of the Internet for their Twitter accounts,” Palermo wrote Tuesday in an op-ed for Huffington Post…
The California academic went on to lament what he said was a political environment where Democrats are the only ones “trying to remain in the fact-based world and accept the validity of scientific inquiry.”…
http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/28/wacko-academic-suggests-banning-trump-from-twitter-over-climate-views/?utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social
funny how CAGW (& its $$$) is the greatest (only) concern of the losers:
timely reminders:
27 Jul: Breitbart: Marita Noon: Hillary’s Energy Policies enrich Wall Street Cronies
In the batch of Democrat National Committee (DNC) emails WikiLeaks made public on July 23, DNC Research Associate Jeremy Berns tells his colleagues: “She [Clinton] doesn’t want the people knowing about her relationships on Wall Street.” He adds: “She wants to achieve consistency and the best way to do that is to keep the people ignorant.”
For the past four years, I’ve collaborated with citizen activist/researcher Christine Lakatos (she’s been at it for six years) on what we’ve called: President Obama’s green-energy crony-corruption scandal. In her blog, the Green Corruption Files, she posts her exhaustive research. I, then, use her research to draft an overview that is appropriate for the casual reader.
More recently, our efforts have morphed to include the Democrats’ presidential nominee, as Lakatos found the same people are her “wealthy cronies,” too…
I’ve chosen to highlight the Clinton’s Wall Street connections that have benefited from the green deals that were cut in the Obama White House and that will continue on if Clinton wins…
Remember the DNC’s official platform includes: “the goal of producing 100 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2050” and “a call for the Justice Department to investigate fossil fuel companies for misleading the public on climate change.”…READ ALL
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/07/27/hillarys-energy-policies-enrich-wall-street-cronies/
GreenCorruptionFiles: Obama’s Green Team of Corporate Cronies
http://greencorruption.com/obamas-green-team-of-corporate-cronies/
40
If so called renewable energy sources are commercially viable for electricity grid application why are they subsidised, and why are interstate interconnectors to coal and gas fired power stations needed?
141
–
Dennis, A good question!
You must understand that asking such questions really does create som panic in the green blob in case you come across the correct answers to your question.
The elitist Green blob and most of all, the Green blob’s politician’s and their running dogs in the media and in the bureaucracy and in academia are signaling their outstanding Virtues as “Savers of the Planet” whilst demonstrating to the world their well deserved selfie promoted elitism and true green virtues unsullied by the harsh realities of the real world around them.
Its called “Virtue Signalling” and is used quite consistently by the green blob politicians and fellow travellers such as the greens and the sections of the media to signal their “green virtue” as being pure in the green spirit and model “concerned citizens”[ when you see “concerned citizens” are involved hold your wallet very tight as you are about to be had big time ! ] by divorcing themselves from the messy realities where the schemes they implement are riddled by utter incompetence, are divisory of society and are both consistently economically and in real world practical terms, disastrous.
So it happens that the incompetency riddled, selfie promoted, virtue signaling politically “seemed like a good idea at the time” “Green Blob schemes to “Save the Planet” must for appearances sake and prevention of a considerable potential loss of “Face” amongst the other Green blob virtue signallers and the voters ,what seemed like a good idea at the time, the “virtue signaling”, “saving the planet” scheme must be carefully sustained without any overt references to the real situation, by the seeking of the provision of extra services from the evil greedy, grasping capitalistic Destroyers of the Planet next door who’ve figured they can’t give a damn about any “virtue signaling” and just want to make life more comfortable for themselves as well as earn some extra moola to enjoy life a bit more.
So fortunately for the Selfie promoting, virtue signaling Green blob’s politicals they just keep the next door, evil planet destroyer’s planet destroying power generators and etc right on running and usually have left themselves a comfortable cushion and lee way when they built their planet destroying coal fired power generators .
So being a bit mercenary and the Virtue signaling green blob being totally incompetent but becoming desperate to save Face as green blob virtue signallers, the evil planet destroyers agree to supply the power needed and get to make some extra moola on the side and so come to an arrangement where the “Virtue signaling” Green blob politician’s voters get screwed over very thoroughly by all concerned so that the green blob politicians can save “Face” and maintain their “virtue signaling” facade.
81
“Then again, maybe the models didn’t exactly predict these, not-so-extreme 120km/hr gusts.”
Correct, no climate model is going to predict individual weather event. Weather models sometimes do.
You will need to show evidence that the storm in 1948 was a “cyclone”, I am not sure what you are trying to say here. If you are saying the storm was part of a mid-latitude cyclone, then that description might be correct.
416
Harry Twinotter December 29, 2016 at 2:47 pm ·
“Then again, maybe the models didn’t exactly predict these, not-so-extreme 120km/hr gusts.”
So Twinbeaver,
What is the purpose of your ‘models’? Seems like they are only capable of sucking up lotsa government funds!
153
Will Janoschka.
You do not make it clear which models you are talking about.
Weather models are used to forecast weather.
Climate models are used to project climate. Climate is an average. Personally I do not even use climate models, they are not necessary; but they do provide a bit more evidence for AGW.
318
Harry says, “Climate models are used to project climate.”
No they do not! Period!
They’re ability to project anything is just to offer scary scenarios to politicians.
183
tom0mason.
“No they do not! Period!”
So you claim – evidence, please?
Also I do not know which politicians you are referring to. Reading the media, it appears many politicians just want the whole business to go away.
210
Evidence that climate model projections are anywhere close to reality, Harry.
The so-called projections are just fantasies useless for anything except climate propaganda.
93
Here are three identical photos of Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour IN 1885, 1930, and 2016.
Perhaps Hairy Twobeavers can point out the dange in a sea level rise of 2.5 inches per century.
63
In the third photo, one of the windows is missing!
11
Evidence?
Epic fail — HERE
Evidence that a fantasy exists? As in prove a mathematical device (the computer models) can show how a chaotic system will change without understanding the basics of that chaotic system — it is a fundamental failure!
Latest update of the fantasy machines “Data and Bias Correction for Decadal Climate Predictions CMIP-WGCM-WGSIP Decadal Climate Prediction Panel, International CLIVAR Project Office Publication Series 150, 5pp, 2011.”
That is evidence of the fundamental failure.
As is —
CFMIP-GCSS plans for advancing assessments of cloud-climate feedbacks.
and…
A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity
and …
Tropospheric adjustment induces a cloud component in CO2 forcing.
All recent changes to the models of the ‘settled science’ of ‘climate science™’
103
Harry,
Prove they work!
They don’t!
83
From UN-IPCC own documentation called Coupled Models: Evolution, Use, Assessment
In other words the models do not give the required results and have to be adjusted (tuned).
and
In other words the models do not track long term changes.
51
It’s all rubbish isn’t it Tomo.
Those things are NOT models and all the fancy outline you have quoted is flim clam; totally meaningless junk.
And of course the biggest joke is that of all the possible factors affecting temperature (whatever that is) that for human origin CO2 is almost certainly the prime candidate to be left out of the model because it has no effect that can be theoretically implied and so measurement is pointless.
Are these global modellers for real.
Complete junk science.
KK
42
KinkyKeith, absolutely correct!
The UN-IPCC has to couch their documentation in weasel-words lest to truth be overtly exposed — the models are no better than guess-work, and as such have proved to be inaccurate failures.
22
Here
Here,
Here,
Here,
Those assessing a model admit they fail regionally —
72
I gave you a couple of ticks Harry, but this comment needs clarification:
‘Personally I do not even use climate models, they are not necessary; but they do provide a bit more evidence for AGW.’
We cannot ignore the hiatus and massive model failure over the past couple of decades, the AGW theory is falsified.
172
el gordo.
“We cannot ignore the hiatus and massive model failure over the past couple of decades, the AGW theory is falsified.”
So you claim, evidence please?
OK, remove computer models because you personally do not like them. AGW still remains.
211
Harry,
Your assertion “Climate models are used to project climate.”
Your proof?
Whose climate, this world or some fantasy modeled one?
83
“OK, remove computer models because you personally do not like them. AGW still remains.”
Twotter.. the ONLY thing supporting so-called AGW “climate science™” is the falsified models.
There is NOTHING ELSE, or you could produce it.
There is absolutely no science proving that CO2 causes any warming in a convective atmosphere..
NONE WHAT SO EVER
Do you comprehend !!!
73
What a load of bovine excrement, Harry!
You have absolutely no idea about modelling, do you? “Weather models are used to forecast weather”, Duh! Bus timetables are use to forecast bus arrival times. So what? Except that bus timetables are usually much more accurate.
Climate models do not represent an average of weather over a period of time. They are orders of magnitude more complex than taking an average of something that has yet to exist. I have no words to express how dumb your statement is.
Climate models come from the same basis as computer gaming algorithms, including all of the randomising factors. They are make-believe, they have no basis in reality, except after the effect when the modellers point out the one or two things they got right from dozens of variable outcomes. They can therefore provide absolutely zero evidence for AGW, except in the political spin of press releases, after the effect.
192
G’day Rereke
Has anyone thought of inputting the weather data from 1800AD into one of those climate models to see how the match the next 200 years’ of data? It’s called hindcasting and probably part of the QA procedures that seem to get missed…
Cheers,
Speedy
112
They have and they did ,Speedy!
And the outcomes never got within a planet’s distance of predicting the climate from the 1800’s on to the present day.
The ONLY way in which climate model runs beginning with the data from some decades to a century or more ago can get anywhere near predicting the climate over those decades up to the present is by “tuning” the climate models as they go along to match the data as it has been recorded down through the time of the model run.
This as well as fiddling and just plain guessing all sorts of model inputs they don’t know much or even anything about such as the effects of aerosols whose impact on the climate is completely unknown, one of those known “unknowns”, until the model’s predictions finally begin to look just a bit like the climate that actually did evolve over those years past.
Of course as the climate model output begins to now very roughly and roughly is the operative word here, match the past climate, the assumption then on the part of the modellers is that their model will be able to predict the future climate.
However each and every model needs a completely different set of tuning adjustments to get it to come even close to predicting the past climate when it is initiated at a point some many decades past.
IF those tuning adjustments and the criteria used to do the tuning were ALL identical across ALL climate models then it is just possible that a modelled prediction of the future climate might just remotely have some actual real veracity.
There are still possibly dozens of known “unknowns” i.e.; Solar UV. solar magnetic fields, planetary gravitational effects and they are only a tiny slice of the known “unknowns”, that impact on the global climate and are only guessed at as far as their effects and impact on the climate are calculated.
It is the unknown numbers of unknown “unknowns” that heavily impact on the global climate that destroy any chances that the climate models for perhaps another half to a century ahead will have any chance of making a reasonably acceptable prediction of the climate ahead for any more than a few years ahead at the very outside best.
And it should also, be pointed out that most of these models go through dozens of “runs” including constant tuning in the attempts to match the past climate and then to claim the models can predict the future climate.
The modellers then select the runs that look like they might match the modeller’s own anticipated climate of the future [ modeller bias therefore inherent and built into climate models everywhere ] and then he / she / they often average out a whole basket full of model runs which is then served up without any “buts” or “doubts” or “maybe’s” as the quite accurate prediction of path of the real and actual future climate.
Judith Curry on her Climate etc blog has a number of blog posts on climate models including this one on Tuning climate models
132
Citations?
61
Rereke Whakaaro.
“You have absolutely no idea about modelling, do you?”
Ummm, yes I do have an idea. It is not difficult to get an understanding of numerical models, there is plenty of basic info about them available on the internet.
I cannot speak for all the climate models. But the CMIP5 series mostly predict warming under a scenario of increasing CO2 concentration (I think one of the Russian runs showed possible cooling). That sounds like scientific evidence to me.
211
“That sounds like scientific evidence to me.”
ROFLMAO.. NO harry, it is not evidence of any sort
The models are un-validated scientific nonsense, as such, anything derived from them is also scientific nonsense.
73
Harry I do understand modelling and to prove it I have just made a simulation of earths climate for the next 150 years it’s precise and accurate so don’t listen to them .
Only trouble is I’m short of play doh !
63
OK Harry, so you claim to have some knowledge of modelling. I will accept that assertion at face value.
But for the benefit of those of us who cannot make such a claim, can I ask you to explain the formulae involved in calculating the changes in temperature, and humidity, at various heights, resulting from a rotating column of air, some four thousand metres high, that is moving, because of the prevailing wind, from a downtown commercial area, to being over water in an enclosed harbour (think Sydney).
Obviously, you can’t express those formulae in a blog like this, using mathematical symbols, but explaining the factors involved, and how they are related, would still be interesting for those of us who are somewhat sceptical, that it can be modelled at all.
This is basic atmospheric physics, Harry, so I am confident you will be able to give us an answer, and I like to keep things reasonably simple.
51
Rereke Whakaaro.
“can I ask you to explain the formulae involved in calculating the changes in temperature”
You are wasting your time using the “baffle with bull” routine on me. It might impress some of the readers here, who knows – but you addressed your post to me.
17
So you don’t know sweet stuff all about any form of computer modelling, do you Harry, but you won’t admit it.
There are two forms of computer models; determinant models, and indeterminate models. Can you at least tell everybody here, what the differences are?
There is no bull involved in baffling anybody, here. But the differences between the two types of models are key to this whole argument. It is over to you. I don’t mind if you look it up, or even ask your tutor. But if you can’t answer that simple question, then you are just full of cr*p.
42
“You are wasting your time using the “baffle with bull” “
That’s because you are already TOTALLY BAFFLED and full of BULL****. !!
32
OK, Harry you say you understand models. You specifically cite CMIP5. So I challenge you, as I’m sure you are proclaiming knowledge you don’t have, so just the basics, that’s all…
1. how many models make-up the CMIP5 series?
2. How many runs do they have to make to get a meaningful output?
3. How many and what tweaks(tuning) have to be made to give meaningful outputs.
4. How many output(s) are there from the models?
Nothing eh? I thought so!
32
tom0mason.
“Nothing eh? I thought so!”
Babble.
14
Really Twotter..
Those last two responses are probably the weakest evasions to actually answering some technical issues that I have ever seen.. even from you. !!
“Pathetic”, doesn’t even start to describe your blatant ducking and weaving.
22
No, Harry, you’re labouring under a misapprehension and here’s why:
Climate models are the numerical assembly and interpretation of the theory – that’s it.
Climate models aren’t a separate entity. They are the embodiment of the theory.
You’re essentially looking to claim the theory is validated by itself – circular reasoning.
As Richard Feynman says; if it disagrees with experiment, it’s wrong.
41
Ah, you mean this lecture!
31
Harry as usual you have nothing! Empty babble that is all.
“Nothing eh? I thought so!”
Harry’s Babble.
31
Harry Twinotter December 29, 2016 at 4:11 pm
“Will Janoschka.You do not make it clear which models you are talking about. weather models are used to forecast weather.”
No weather models, only dedicated folk trying like hell to distinguish the deterministic of this planet from the statistical noise or the ever present chaos! (misunderstanding)
“Climate models are used to project climate. Climate is an average.”
Never ever!! The word ‘Climate’ is only used to sell property to others at a profit.A Realtor term! Run for your life from any such fraud!
73
I can’t believe Harry Twinotter actually wrote “climate models do provide a bit more evidence for AGW”
The admission being that the only evidence for AGW is really the predictions of climate models that are based on amended data.
That’ll do me – if that is the level of scientific understanding of Harry Twinotter and all those with him/her who believe the planet is warming because one extra molecule of CO2 in 1,000,000 air molecules that may or may not be contributed by human endeavor and that in turn causes catastrophic climate change, and that the evidence that they base their beliefs upon is the contaminated predictions cast from computer models using data already contaminated by computer homogenisation…
FFS I don’t know why so much effort is expended responding to frack wits…
123
Jim Poulos.
“The admission being that the only evidence for AGW is really the predictions of climate models that are based on amended data.”
Are you going to ignore all the other lines of evidence? That is not very scientific.
If you do not believe in the greenhouse effect, then the burden of evidence is on you to provide an alternate hypothesis for why the average temperature of the earth is what it is.
313
You have yet to present ANY lines of evidence.
We are waiting !!! But all we ever get is empty propaganda and hand-waving rhetoric.
It seems you do not understand what the greenhouse effect is, and why CO2 CANNOT cause warming in a convective atmosphere.
We are waiting for your description, which will, of course , show that you have very little idea what you are talking about.
53
And again.. you saying something is scientific or not, is immaterial and irrelevant, because you have proven time and time again that you really have very little understanding of what science actually is.
83
So Harry what other lines of evidence are there that have withstood scrutiny and are evidence based .
73
Robert Rosicka.
I am surprised you do not know.
Rising global mean temperature.
Rising sea level.
Disappearing mountain glaciers.
Downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent.
212
Poor Harry, his wilful ignorance continues.
Try to LEARN, Twotter. All the back-up daat has been given to you many times, but you choose to REMAIN IGNORANT.
1. No rise in global temperatures, some regional ocean and El Nino forced warming. No CO2 warming signal in the global temperatures at all.
2. Sea level has been rising at basically the same rate for around 150 + years. No acceleration, most likely decelerating. No CO2 warming signal in sea level data.
3. Glaciers have been receding for a long time. They are finding human artefacts and tree stumps under glaciers. Several studies show cyclic patterns related to ocean cycles.
https://s19.postimg.org/j23ct07zn/mt_baker.png
4. Arctic sea ice, by NSIDC, is only 0.018 Wadhams below the previous short term low in 2010, and WAY above the levels of the first 3/4 of the Holocene.
1979 was a peak in Arctic sea ice up there with the tail end of the LIA.
Real historic understanding is ALWAYS going to destroy the short-term propaganda pap put out by the AGW apostles and lapped up by low-end parrots like you.
113
Harry you should do some investigation for yourself on your “evidence” rather than accepting the picture presented by people who make a living out of scare mongering Climate Change.
I had a quick look at the temperature data from around Australia:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=085096&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=084016&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=061055&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=040043&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=039085&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=032025&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=003003&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=004035&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=009519&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=009518&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=009500&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=011003&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=026026&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=090015&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
All data from BOM site; unhomogenised and where data has been collected for a long time. There is no indication here that the temperature now is any higher than it has been in the recent past.
You can collect sea level data for centuries from various locations that show no trend over that time. The recent trend over the last 150 years has been slight rise:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_station.htm?stnid=680-140
Sydney is on highly stable rock so the trend there is not affected by ground uplift or subsidence. The point to note is that there has been a slow but steady rise from the beginning of the record going back to 1880. That indicates increasing ocean temperature at least for that length of time. What it does not show is any correlation to rising CO2 as it would be accelerating if that was the case.
Glaciers have come and gone throughout history. Currently there are as many increasing as those receding. Parts of Antarctica were forested prior to Drakes Passage being formed.
Arctic sea ice extent has receded on average a little over the last few decades but then Antarctic ice extent has increased over the past decade. Overall the sea extent globally has not changed over the last 40 years:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgVQxxALD4EXWLeWB
Anyone with an enquiring mind would do their own research rather than regurgitating nonsense put out by those funded to push their nonsense.
If you have a genuine interest in climate then consider your own circumstances. How has the weather in your location changed over the last 50 years. Don’t accept the nonsense from those trying to brainwash you but get your own data. Has your heating bill dropped dramatically because it is now much warmer? Has you cooling bill increased dramatically because it is now much warmer? Is there more rain? Is there less snow? Start out looking locally than expand to a wider scale relying on solid data rather homogenised, cherry picked nonsense.
104
Ok Harry now you’re really showing your colours .
Rising sea levels ! Yeah has been rising since last iceage has slowed somewhat what’s your point ? By the way Suzuki , Flannery , DiCaprio own beachfront property given what they and you preach why would that be do you think ?
Global mean temp increase ! Would this be using NOAA data ?
Disappearing mountain glaciers ! Any new ones around that you know of ?
Downward trend in Arctic ice ! But you neglect to mention the increasing Antarctic ice mass why would that be ?
83
As an aside do you have any proof that man is responsible for any of your accusations.
73
“As an aside do you have any proof that man is responsible for any of your accusations.”
Would be the first time Twotter has ever produced any proof of anything.
His posts are invariably just empty, baseless rhetoric.
83
Rick Will.
So you are going to cherry-pick some stations? Be my guest just show working. And ignore the warnings about the lack of quality control and the use of non-standard equipment before 1910.
I never mentioned Antarctica – focus!
I never mentioned tide gauges – focus!
29
Of course you wouldn’t mention tide gauges, Twotter.
REAL DATA is an enema to you.
And DENYING real data before 1910 is part of your wilful ignorance.
You CHOOSE to remain that way… because the cure would be the truth.
62
Harry
The station selection covers the full circumference of Australia. The records were selected because of their broad coverage right around Australia; their remoteness from population centres to avoid localised heating affects and they covered the longest available period of time, consistent with climate trends rather than weather.
The so-called quality control applied to data since 1910 is demonstrably data manipulation – the inquiry into the homogenised data shows that. The reason homogenised data does not go back further than 1910 is because the adjustment needed to get earlier data into a rising trend would be glaringly obvious and impossible to defend so easier to simply wave it away by disregarding the diligence and care of our forefathers.
If you are mentioning sea ice without mentioning Antarctica then you are highly selective in your data cherry picking.
Tide gauges on stable land are the best measurement of sea level trends. Not to consider tide gauges when mentioning sea level rising is worse than blinkered. It shows a imbicilic naivety regarding data.
The challenge for you is to take some initiative with your own data collection so you can build your own picture of how your local weather is evolving rather than relying on others who are making money out of embellishing the AGW fairy tale – unless of course you are making money out of perpetuating the nonsense. A little effort looking at real data objectively will dispel any concerns you have about Global Warming.
22
Rick Will.
“The so-called quality control applied to data since 1910 is demonstrably data manipulation”
No. But if you have evidence of data manipulation please post for the sake of discussion. The reason the BOM starts it’s reference data from 1910 is stated on their website. Personally I do not even bother with data from before around 1945 when considering current climate change; the signal to noise ratio is too low.
You mentioned sea ice, not me. But I consider the Arctic and Antarctica separately as the areas are different in topology. Global sea ice extent is a fiction and adding the poles together is meaningless; but I do accept that NOAA calculates a global sea ice extent estimate.
“Tide gauges on stable land are the best measurement of sea level trends.”
No, they are not. There are a lot of influences on tidal gauges that have nothing to do with sea level rise. For an example look at the east coast of the US, if only tidal gauges are considered then the situation appears catastrophic which it isn’t. The global sea level estimated from the satellite altimetry is a better indicator of global sea level.
“build your own picture of how your local weather”
I do. It is getting warmer where I live. Actually if I only looked at raw data, I would come to the conclusion the warming is already catastrophic which I know it isn’t.
14
Harry
This is the report into the BoM ACORN data set adjustments:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/documents/2015_TAF_report.pdf
Figure 4.1 on page 17 shows the difference between measured data and the ACORN data. The past has been cooled by up to 0.3C and the recent data warmed by up to 0.1C to give a net warming of 0.5C or more than half of the reported warming. The panel stated:
“The use of a quadratic functional form carries the risk, if (mis)used to project temperatures beyond or before the observation period, of seriously overestimating the change. The Forum strongly recommends that the use of piecewise linear fits or nonparametric smoothers such as LOWESS be revisited by the Bureau.”
Stated more clearly – the methodology used seriously overstates the change and is nonsense so fix it.
If you go back to your post above 38.1.1.5.1 you will find:
“I am surprised you do not know.
Rising global mean temperature.
Rising sea level.
Disappearing mountain glaciers.
Downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent.”
I interpreted “Arctic sea ice extent” as meaning Arctic sea ice extent. I provided you with a plot of the global sea ice extent, covering both Arctic sea ice extent and Antarctic sea ice since records began:
https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgVr59PXA_67TgnYA
This data is extracted directly from the NSIDC site. You need to look at the full global picture of sea ice because the Earth precesses as well as having a slightly elliptical orbit so only looking at one hemisphere does not give the full picture of the global energy balance and global temperature. Sea ice extent is a key control on global temperature as it is one of the means of limiting heat loss from the polar oceans.
The word “stable” with regard to land means it is not uplifting or subsiding (unlike east coast or west coast USA). Height gauges on stable ground provide an accurate means of assessing sea level over much longer periods than satellite records.
You have provided a statement about your local temperature but no data. I have good reason to question your credibility as a reliable observer as I have evidence of your poor memory so your statements holds no force or value. To be credible you need to provide the data and source that you are basing your conclusions on.
41
Rick Will.
“This is the report into the BoM ACORN data set adjustments:”
Yes, adjustments. But your claim is “manipulation”. The BOM are clear about why they adjust the raw data to obtain the reference data.
The BOM have recently updated their website and FAQ, it will take me a while to read it all.
This is the temperature trend based on raw data where I live. I cycle past the site regularly so I know where the station is currently located – it has been moved a couple of times over the last 100 years or so. I do not believe the annual average has really gone up 2-3C. Just eyeballing the trend there is a clear series break just before 1920 for example.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=066062&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
16
Rick Will.
Check out section 13 in the FAQs: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/acorn-sat/#tabs=FAQs
“From 1910 to approximately 1950 there are small differences—generally less than 0.2 °C—in annual-mean Australian temperatures between adjusted and unadjusted datasets. There are no trends in temperatures over this period and the inherent uncertainty in the data is largest at this time due to a sparser observing network.”
So yes, I take the data before around 1945 with a pinch of salt for this reason. The data is noisy; it gets better after 1945.
Also from the report you reference: “A simple linear trend shows that Australia warmed by around 0.92 °C from 1950 to 2014 in the ACORN-SAT data, compared with a change of 0.85 °C in the AWAP data—a difference of around 0.07 °C over 65 years.”
0.07C difference between unadjusted and adjusted over 65 years is not a lot. Considering the errors in the estimates, the trends are virtually identical.
“The past has been cooled by up to 0.3C and the recent data warmed by up to 0.1C to give a net warming of 0.5C or more than half of the reported warming.”
You will have to show me your working on how you obtain the “0.5C”. I do not see it in the report or the FAQ.
“I provided you with a plot of the global sea ice extent…”
I gave my reasons for not likely a global average. Regardless, the issue with the Arctic sea ice extent is the trend in the annual MINIMUM as this is the condition for projecting when the Arctic will become ice-free in summer. I can give you a reference for the trend data if you do not know where to find it.
“… because the Earth precesses as well as having a slightly elliptical orbit…”
You do realize how long that process takes to happen? Tens of thousands of years. I am happy to ignore that effect.
“Height gauges on stable ground provide an accurate means of assessing sea level over much longer periods than satellite records.”
No it doesn’t. Tidal gauges are effected by a lot of local factors unrelated to global sea level rise. For example ocean current changes and gravity changes due to water and ice redistributions. Either way there is an upward trend in average tidal gauges as well:
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
” I have good reason to question your credibility as a reliable observer as I have evidence of your poor memory so your statements holds no force or value.”
Childish insults are boring.
[Your ceaseless inability to debate honestly, based on the facts, is also becoming boring. Ad hominem comments are not debating honestly. You do not respond directly to the points put to you, by those who have different views, based on the evidence they cite. But rather you open a different line of argument, in an attempt to avoid addressing their evidence. This has become argument by attrition, where the last person to comment claims to have won. Lift your game Harry. I for one am getting bored by your games] Fly
23
WOW.. Twotter has just found the Urban Warming effect.
And he probably thinks its due to “Global warming due to CO2”
AMAZING !!!
43
“[Your ceaseless inability to debate honestly, based on the facts, is also becoming boring. Ad hominem comments are not debating honestly. You do not respond directly to the points put to you, by those who have different views, based on the evidence they cite. But rather you open a different line of argument, in an attempt to avoid addressing their evidence. This has become argument by attrition, where the last person to comment claims to have won. Lift your game Harry. I for one am getting bored by your games] Fry.”
Oh look who is back from Xmas/NY!
What he is saying is ad hominems directed at me are OK, but I am not allowed to respond. Is this the sort of person you want on your six?
23
AndyG55.
“WOW.. Twotter has just found the Urban Warming effect.”
You too Andy-pandy. How about the temperature series from where you live? This is supposed to be a technical discussion.
23
It shows urban warming as well.
Do you know anything about Urban Warming, that you want to discuss?
It is no evidence of global warming, even though it is responsible, by the ridiculous homogenisation routines, and other “adjustments” for basically all the so called “global” warming in Australia.
Again we have the situation that Twotter is sprouting off about something he doesn’t seem to have even the remotest understanding of. He seems to be suggesting that Sydney Observatory temperatures are indicative of “global” warming.. Which is ridiculous to say the least.
How about we look at some RAW Australia data that is NOT affected by Urban Growth, and has NOT been BOM’D or GISS’d ..
https://s19.postimg.org/5bdmmaxkj/AMBERLEYAMOmean.png
Then we see the real pattern of “ZERO WARMING”
13
“This is supposed to be a technical discussion.”
We are waiting for something technical from you, Twotter.
You accuse Rick of cherry-picking then show one of the most urban effected sites in the whole country.
That really is pretty crass behaviour.
But lets’ have a look at some more RAW data for some places that are not so urban affected because of their location
https://s19.postimg.org/amxl44pyr/DENILIQUIN_WILKINSO_AS_Average_Mean_Temperature_Ja.png
https://s19.postimg.org/5csmcu5pv/EUCLA_AS_Days_Above_Maximum_Temperature_Threshold95.png
https://s19.postimg.org/6t44uz8mr/COONABARABRAN_NAMOI_AS_Average_Maximum_Temperature.png
https://s19.postimg.org/5s3w5urn7/ALICESPRINGSPOSTO_AS_Average_Mean_Temperature_Jan.png
12
AndyG55.
Andy-pandy.
Where is the temp series for where you live?
Rick Will’s asked for mine, and I showed it to him.
You wouldn’t have something to hide, by any chance?
22
Twotter.. I live in an Urban area. It shows Urban warming So what. !
13
You aren’t seriously suggesting that Urban Warming is “global warming from CO2”, are you Twotter.
That would show an incredible amount of ignorance on your behalf.
Even more than usual.
13
Harry
I appreciate your effort in finding and linking the Observatory Hill data. I can see how that trend could be concerning for someone who does not understand physics. On the plus side you have demonstrated an ability to find data from an original source.
You should be aware that Observatory Hill is smack bang in the middle of one of the most developed pieces of land in Australia; and globally. There is a huge heat output from this high density population centre as well as large change in the surrounding landscape over time. If you look at the Observatory Hill trend, the temperature was rising faster from 1880 till 1920 than any more recent period. That is when Sydney was undergoing rapid development. Development slowed during the 1930s and war period then resumed after 1950. Basically the temperature trend shows Sydney development.
To get a more realistic picture you need to look at temperature trends from locations that are not subject to dramatic local development. The other criteria is to have a long record such as you have found for Observatory hill. One example that I found nearby is Bega:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_display_type=dataGraph&p_stn_num=069002&p_nccObsCode=36&p_month=13
This data begins in 1910 and is only recorded till 2000. Over that period there is clearly a downward trend.
If you remove local development from temperature trends over the past century they average to no discernible trend as you would expect given the very small increase in ocean 0-700m temperature over that period. There are no temperature trend showing unusual acceleration over the last 30 years unless it is related to rapid local development. Not even your Observatory Hill data has unusual acceleration in the last 30 years as it accelerated more from 1880 to 1920 than the last 30 years.
If you want to improve your understanding of the development around Observatory Hill you could find historical pictures of Sydney skyline for example:
http://history.cityofsydney.nsw.gov.au/sydneystreets/Then_&_Now/default.html
You could also look at the number of cars entering the city on a daily basis from 1880 to present although it would have been horses to start with. You could look at the power consumption in the city over the period although you would need to start with gas lighting. Once you get into this exercise you will likely be surprised that the average temperature at Observatory Hill has only increased two or three degrees.
22
Rick Will.
“I appreciate your effort in finding and linking the Observatory Hill data.”
I was just responding to your challenge. I will remind you what you said: “You have provided a statement about your local temperature but no data.”
I even said I thought the raw data was somewhat dodgy. The reference data from the site shows less warming and is probably closer to the truth.
I know all about the UHI effect, it is well-documented. So you are wasting your time trying to lecture me about it.
“I can see how that trend could be concerning for someone who does not understand physics.”
You evidently did to understand my comment that insults are boring (and pointless).
Look, I tell you what. You estimate the UHI effect for Sydney and post that – it will be an interesting discussion.
21
Harry
Temperature gauges on land can easily be affected by local development. They are not reliable for determining weather trends. Making adjustments for UHI factors is as pointless and as prone to bias as the BoM homogenisation process. It is simpler to look at data records in remote locations that are not subject to development. I provided a comprehensive list of links in an earlier post on this thread that encircle Australia and data back to the earliest records.
The best indicator of warming or cooling trends with regard to climate is widely recognised as the temperature of the top 700m of the world oceans. Global sea level is a reasonable proxy for this as well and has been recorded for a longer period than ocean temperature. I have provided a link to the tidal data for Sydney which is a stable measuring station. That has no CO2 signature.
The NOAA data dates back to 1955 so is not long enough to determine if there is any correlation with increasing CO2:
http://data.nodc.noaa.gov/woa/DATA_ANALYSIS/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/DATA/basin/yearly_mt/T-dC-w0-700m.dat
This shows a warming trend of 0.19C over 60 years so close to measurement error. The data collection is being progressively improved using the ARGO buoys although there have been some data manipulation with the buoy record so needs to be viewed with a level of skepticism:
http://andrewgelman.com/2010/03/29/no_problem_well/
11
Rick Wills.
I do not understand why you keep going on about UHI. If you are curious about it, go ahead and estimate it I am not stopping you.
You are just throwing subjects around at random now. I guess you are trying to avoid discussing the points I raised. Best we end this thread here I think, it is going nowhere.
02
Harry asked at post 38.1.1.5.23:
“Look, I tell you what. You estimate the UHI effect for Sydney and post that – it will be an interesting discussion.”
Rick Will
Offered 0-700M ocean temperature anomaly as the best current indication of climate trend as:
“This shows a warming trend of 0.19C over 60 years so close to measurement error. ”
The very best indication of global warming is 0.19C over the last 60 years. Average temperature at Observatory Hill has gone from 21.7C to 23.5C in the same period giving a difference of 1.8C so the anomaly related to local development is 1.6C over the last 60 years.
11
Please Harry – present the evidence – an experiment proving CO2 causes warming would be a great start… any experiment.
73
Jim Poulos.
“Please Harry – present the evidence – an experiment proving CO2 causes warming would be a great start… any experiment.”
So you are one of the ones who are going to deny climate science? That takes a lot of willful ignorance.
Relax then, go back to sniffing glue or what ever you use to pass the time. No need to worry.
211
I told you Twotter couldn’t produce one tiny bit of evidence for his GULLIBLE, brain-washed beliefs.
Nothing as usual. Same silly, ignorant, twotter.
63
“So you are one of the ones who are going to deny climate science?”
Twotter is the only one DENYING REAL SCIENCE.
(as opposed to the fantasies of climate so-called science, which is not really any sort of science at all, being most closely related to social science.)
He has proven time and time again that he is totally unable to produce any REAL science to back up his rants.
Still waiting, Twotter.
tick, tock !!!
73
You were right Andy an ignorant troll sent from the church of AGW
73
No, Harry, you’re labouring under yet another a misapprehension and here’s why:
The CO2 theory IS the alternate hypothesis. It is your job to unseat the null hypothesis.
Thus far the null hypothesis rules.
Perhaps review Richard Feynman on the Scientific Method
32
Raven.
I am glad you mention Richard Feynman’s high school lecture video. He makes a very good point about cranks trying to tell scientists how to do their jobs.
I recommend you take his advice.
25
Still nothing of any technical merit, have you Twotter.
You obviously did not comprehend anything in Feynman’s lecture, (I doubt you even watched it).
Climate scientists have only an unproven hypothesis. Every bit of REAL SCIENCE and REAL DATA, actually counteracts that hypothesis.
It is a FAILED HYPOTHESIS.
You are welcome to present some real data or real science that even starts to validate the Global Warming “thought bubble”
So far you are batting ZERO..
In however long you have been here, you haven’t hit the ball even once.
33
Hey Andy,
I reckon he likely watched it because he mentions the unhelpful interjectors which is at the 9:05 point of the video.
Of course what Harry should be responding to was in the first 45 seconds.
The fact that he doesn’t mention that part indicates to me that, in Sou’s words:
“it’s clear that too many people have lost the ability to tell fact from fiction and I’m not going to assist in this regard.”
Sorry, Harry . . you’ve suffered a failure to engage just like a starter moter I once had.
41
+ 10000 and add 97% Jim , spot on .
62
Because it is marginally more fun than pulling the legs off of slugs.
31
No they don’t . . no more than money found under your pillow is evidence of the Tooth Fairy.
82
Careful, Raven,
We don’t want to upset the Tooth Fairy, as well as the Climate God. You can only believe in so many impossible things, before breakfast.
41
“Personally I do not even use climate models,”
You wouldn’t have the slightest clue how to use a climate model or how it is designed or what it is capable and not capable of.
Of course you don’t use them. !!
53
He probably doesn’t use bus timetables either, even if they tend to be more accurate models than the climate ones.
31
The point Harry is that historically it is not that unusual for very high winds in this locality. However due to the overinflated egos of the green bureaucrats that believe they can make engineering decisions, SA has ended-up with the dumbest electricity supply network for all the wrong reasons.
Bureaucratic hubris instead of science based engineering!
The second point is BOM with there very expensive climate models failed to spot the changes observed in the weather. This begs the question — What are these climate models for? They don’t work, they’ve never worked.
Also of note is BOM’s weather models failed to give any indication of high wind problems. That failure is almost certainly due to these models are also stuffed full of AGW seance nonsense.
152
tom0mason.
“The second point is BOM with there very expensive climate models failed to spot the changes observed in the weather.”
Until you can show me evidence that climate models are expected to forecast extreme wind events, I consider that a disingenuous point.
The BOM did publish warnings about high winds.
014
Climate models don’t forecast anything.
They are totally useless for any sort of reality in prediction or projection.
They are basically useless for anything except climate propaganda.
93
harry, prove they work.
91
Wouldn’t any trees susceptible to being blown down have likely done so in the “once in 50 year storm” that happened in September during the first grid failure? Why did the trees fall now and not before?
101
Ist, Ich weiss nicht, the only creditable answer?”
All the best! will
60
Ich vice nik, auf englitch.
30
Wer kennt nicht?
30
Ah! the difference between learning and knowledge. All kids fall from the bicycle while learning to ride. The Wright brothers, knew how to build an aircraft from a bicycle!
60
But they weren’t the first. Preceding them was Richard Pearse of Christchurch.
His aircraft had elevators, ailerons, and rudder, and he even made his own engine.
A replica of the aircraft built from the original drawings flies well.
60
So do copies of the drawings if folded correctly.
01
Langley’s machine, which initially did a nosedive into the Potomac river instead of flying also eventually was shown by Glen Curtiss to be a flyable machine.
Glen Curtis is really the one to whom aviation owes the greater debt for his work than to any of the original designers because it was he who took those designs and worked out their flaws, making them practical for useful flight. He had no end of patent infringement fights with the Wrights in the process but nonetheless he did most of the work of making airplanes useful.
Just one example: It’s very desirable that an airplane be stable in flight if the pilot takes his hands off the controls. It should stay on the current heading and in the current attitude without any radical departure from what is was doing before going hands off. From the design I doubt that the Wright flyer would be stable hands off. The front mounted elevator control surface works against that. What Curtis finally came up with could be trimmed up for whatever was required at any phase of flight and would then be stable hands off. I spent a few hours one year flying a Cessna 150 with hands off just to prove it was as easy as I was told.
10
Will,
The Wright brothers may have had a bicycle business but their success had nothing directly to do with bicycles at all except that maybe their bicycle business had taught them to be good engineers. And they were surprisingly good engineers. They had both flown gliders, the design of which was already known and anyone who wanted to could build one and fly it. They figured that they needed only to extend the existing glider design they were familiar with so it could have an engine and better controls and they would have a self propelled airplane. And they were right (pun intentional ;-)).
10
And it would seem that those two bicycle mechanics from Dayton Ohio put some of today’s engineers to shame, don’t you think?
10
the only MSM interest in this story:
28 Dec: WisconsinPublicRadio: References To Climate Change Stripped From State DNR Web Page
Changes Are Not First Politicized Changes On State Websites From Walker Administration, Writer Says
By Scottie Lee Meyers
The revisions were caught by James Rowen, a former reporter and editor at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel who now blogs about state politics…
Gone are links to research and any mention of “climate change.” It states earth is going through a change, as it has throughout the centuries.
“The reasons for this change at this particular time in the earth’s long history are being debated and researched by academic entities outside the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources,” the webpage now states…
***It was reported (LINK) this week that Republican lawmakers are considering breaking up the DNR, scattering parks, forestry, environmental, hunting and fishing programs among three existing agencies and two new ones…
http://www.wpr.org/references-climate-change-stripped-state-dnr-web-page
no-one is disputing the above, or even cares about it, but Facebook-fact-checkers Snopes has to weigh in & includes a ridiculous video with musical background! Snopes calls the blog, UrbanMilwaukee, a “digital newspaper”. in fact, the origin was Rowen’s own blog, ThePoliticalEnvironment:
28 Dec: Snopes: Alex Kasprak: Climate Scrubbing
The Wisconsin DNR’s web page was scrubbed of all uses of the word “climate” and altered to imply a lack of consensus about anthropogenic global warming in the scientific community
Snopes: True
(VIDEO w/MUSIC: 1min11secs: Did the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources remove references to the word “climate” on its web site?…
They did…
There is an overwhelming scientific consensus from the climatological community that the climate is changing…
and human activity is contributing to it…
Origin:In a 26 December 2016 op-ed published by the digital newspaper Urban Milwaukee, environmental writer James Rowen reported (LINK) that a section of the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources’ (DNR) web site, originally titled “Climate Change and Wisconsin’s Great Lake,” had been substantially altered:…
Responding to our request for comment, Wisconsin DNR Communications Director James F Dick stated that their office’s official position is that the science is not settled and that the page was updated to reflect this view:
“As we do from time to time with other website pages, we updated this web page, which had not been updated in several years. The updated page reflects our position on this topic that we have communicated for years, that our agency regularly must respond to a variety of environmental and human stressors from drought, flooding, wind events to changing demographics. Our agency must be ready to respond to each of these challenges. Adaptation has been our position on this topic.
“As you know the causes and effects of any changes in climate are still being debated and research on the matter is being done in academic circles outside DNR. It should be noted that we included links on this page to UW-Madison programs that include climate change in their research.”
(Snopes) The overwhelming scientific consensus ***(LINK) from the climatological community is that the climate is indeed warming and that human activity is contributing to that process.
http://www.snopes.com/wisconsin-department-natural-resources-removes-references-climate-website/
***LINKS to Environmental Research Letters: “Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming” Cook, Oreskes, Lewandowsky, et al…
1. Introduction
Climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that humans are causing recent global warming. The consensus position is articulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statement that ‘human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century’…
32
“Climate scientists overwhelmingly agree that humans are causing recent global warming. The consensus position is articulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statement that ‘human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century’…”
HUH?? The Greek Gods had much more ‘fun’, with the free cavorting Goddesses! What is the the possible meaning of:
The “The consensus position is articulated by the… but the scientific meaning of the word ‘articulated’ can only refer to the degrees of freedom of some machine or critter that has appendages free to articulate!! These fools attempt to confuse such word with the colloquial “ability to speak fluently and coherently.” What the Hell are these fools trying to express? If anything?
102
origin:
26 Dec: ThePoliticalEnvironmentBlog: James Rowen: More Walkerite/Orwellian censoring of WI DNR climate pages
[Updated from 12/22]
This is Orwellian and propagandistic…
https://thepoliticalenvironment.blogspot.com.au/2016/12/more-walkeriteorwellian-censoring-of-wi.html
Snopes’ writer Alex Kasprak, formerly with BuzzFeed, has form:
10 Nov: Snopes: Alex Kasprak: EPA-larmist
President-elect Trump has selected Myron Ebell, who disputes the scientific consensus around anthropogenic global warming, to lead the EPA transition team
Ebell, as noted in a 2007 Vanity Fair article, is often contacted by journalists for sound bites representing the opposing view to scientific, peer reviewed studies despite the fact that Ebell is not actually a scientist…
http://www.snopes.com/trump-taps-outspoken-climate-denier-to-oversee-epa-transition-team/
FakeNewsNYT puff piece portrays Snopes as VICTIM. what’s new?
the rational Snopes managing editor says the “fake news” came from people who hated Hillary!!!
25 Dec: NYT: David Streitfield: For Fact-Checking Website Snopes, a Bigger Role Brings More Attacks
“Rationality seems to have fallen out of vogue,” said Brooke Binkowski, Snopes’s managing editor. “People don’t know what to believe anymore. Everything is really strange right now.”…
The underlying message of these spurious attacks is that the movement to fact-check the internet is a left-wing conspiracy whose real goal is to censor the right, and therefore must be resisted at all costs…
“Smearing people just because you don’t like what they’re saying often works to shut them up,” Ms. Binkowski, 39, said. “But at Snopes you learn to grow a thick skin. I will always push back. At least until someone shows up at my workplace and kills me.”…
Starting about two years ago, Snopes made an effort to professionalize itself. It added a dozen staff members just in time to become the go-to debunking site for an election full of venom…
“The fake news wasn’t from Trump so much. ***It was from people who hated Hillary Clinton,” Ms. Binkowski said…
The plan is for Facebook to send questionable links to a coalition of fact-checking sites, including Snopes…
All of Snopes’s revenue — Mr. Mikkelson says he doesn’t know what it is — come from ads…
Facebook is not paying for its services…
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/25/technology/for-fact-checking-website-snopes-a-bigger-role-brings-more-attacks.html?_r=0
41
surely this is FakeNewsMSM’s last dying gasp:
18 Dec: DailyCaller: Peter Hasson: Despite Media Freak-Out, Data Shows Fake News Sites Have Tiny Audience
Fake news site DenverGuardian.com, subject of coverage from the New York Times and the Washington Post, is ranked 91,688 in web traffic in the U.S., according to web analytics firm Alexa. To put that number in perspective: the site supposedly impacting the national political scene is more than 84,000 slots behind the website for a Virginia community college…
On Sunday, the New York Times devoted front-page coverage to a site called the “Patriot News Agency.” The Times’ story emphasized the fact that “operators of Patriot News had an explicitly partisan motivation: getting Mr. Trump elected.” (RELATED: NYT Devotes Front-Page Coverage To Irrelevant Fake News Site)
But “Patriot News Agency” is even less popular than the “Denver Guardian,” ranking in at 184,898 in the country, according to Alexa. The site’s Facebook page has 113 total likes at this time…
Fake news site “MSNBC.com.co,” whose name meant to fool readers into confusing it with liberal network MSNBC, received mentions from the Washington Post and liberal website Vox.com, among others. But “MSNBC.com.co” reaches a tiny audience, according to Alexa’s data, which has the site ranked 549,714 in the United States…
The minuscule reach of fake news sites hasn’t kept the Times from running headlines like “As Fake News Spreads Lies, More Readers Shrug At The Truth” or “Media’s Next Challenge: Overcoming The Threat Of Fake News.”…ETC
http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/18/despite-media-freak-out-data-shows-fake-news-sites-have-tiny-audience/
28 Dec: DailyCaller: Justin Caruso: Germany May Fine Facebook $522,000 For Any ‘Fake News’ Story
Germany is now contemplating charging social media websites up to 500,000 euros, or $522,000, for every “fake news” story left up on the site for over 24 hours.
“If after the relevant checks Facebook does not immediately, within 24 hours, delete the offending post then [it] must reckon with severe penalties of up to 500,000 euros,” Thomas Oppermann, parliamentary chief of the Germany’s Social Democrat Party told Der Spiegel recently…
The legislation, expected to be introduced next year, would also call for Facebook to give money to individuals negatively affected by a fake news story.
“Facebook is earning an awful lot of money with fake news,” a German official told Bild am Sonntag…
The push to crack down on so-called “fake news” is seemingly motivated by fears of Russian interference in upcoming German elections. German officials reportedly fear Russia will use fabricated stories to influence the 2017 election…(LOL)
http://dailycaller.com/2016/12/28/germany-may-fine-facebook-522000-for-any-fake-news-story/
30
Instead of knocking windmills lets try and figure out what money-making gig the crazies will dream up next. A lot of money was made out of desalination plants, a lot of money is still being made out of windmills but since the power they generate is so unreliable they will end up like the desal plants. So what is the next crazy global warming bullshit scheme. Come on thinkers there is a lot of money to be made on the next scheme while our politicians are so gullible. Could it be power walls or is there something else even better around the corner?
31
There is a lot of money to be made from household battery packs plus “turkey’s nest” type pumped hydro storage, both of which Greenthings propose as the method to make the unreliables, reliable.
41
‘A fool and his money are soon parted’
But when it is fools spending someone else’s money-
the parting is sooner than soon!
The job of government is to spend other people’s money.
So, restricting the power and scope of governments is part of the solution.
30
A world leading continental scale, tax payer financed, climate change preventing, national electric vehicle recharging network [ NVRN ?? ] that will eliminate the use of all polluting fossil fuelled vehicles cross the entire continent of Australia by that magic year of 2050.
2050 being the year when so much is going to happen, including the destruction of the planet, the extinction of our species or was that all species and etc and etc.
40
AS 1170.2 is the Australian Standard that defines how wind loading is to be determined for engineered structures in Australia. Unless the structure is temporary, the strongest wind gust in 50-years is used as the basis for ensuring that stuff doesn’t blow over too often.
The wind speed in the Standard for the Adelaide region has always been around 40 m/s; various “terrain categories” and other adjustments modify (predominately reduce) the near-surface wind speed from that base one. Structures are supposed to be designed to survive the rated speed without damage. I seem to remember that, in the mid-1980’s (while I was designing power and lighting poles amongst other stuff), that ETSA even called for 44 m/s in some regions around the gulf.
It would be foolish (and career-limiting) for a Professional Engineer to design for a lesser wind speed, absent a mountain of data to support that lesser speed.
If the power lines were indeed engineered and maintained as is reasonably expected by taxpayers and the consumers, then they should have survived the storms with wind speeds reported substantially lower than the design requirement.
Alas, without whistleblowers, one will never find out whose heads should be rolling.
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You make an excellent point Bernd.
“Alas, without whistleblowers, one will never find out whose heads should be rolling.”
It is very hard to get answers where responsibilty is involved. I would like to see a few heads rolling both politically and in the public service.
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Bernd Felsche December 29, 2016 at 5:26 pm ·
Bernd,
Remember we still have statistical mechanics.
Last time I took my auto to one of those for repair, only one wheel fell of on the way home.
Can you explain that? Should have been half da wheels (two out of four) dat fell off! Have you some scienterififc explanation please?
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Bernd, that’s new, structures deteriorate and much of the local infrastructure in Australia (Sub Tropics) is wooden poles. Australia has the largest population in the world … of termites. We also have a predominance of what are called widow-makers – hardwood trees that are brittle, they tend to survive storms by shedding branches, particularly after another common feature of eucalypts, the propensity to die back in bad seasons. The dead branches are heavy, very brittle and tend to break off unexpectedly even in mild breezes creating the odd widow or two – hence the nickname.
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The reference to the standard is to indicate that 120kph winds have an ARI of 10 years; so not a common occurrence for the region. The design ARI would be much higher.
Given that you were designing for ETSA in the 1980s it is reasonably likely it some of the structures you designed that have failed. Have you checked? Can you be held responsible for tress falling across the lines?
Adelaide was the hottest city in the world on December 25th. The following day, areas of Adelaide experienced high winds. Anyone who is familiar with Australian native trees knows that is the perfect circumstances for trees becoming brittle causing branches to break and even trunks to snap. If it has been a good growing season with plenty of water prior to the hot weather then that increases the risk of trees failing.
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The whole point of spending millions… no Billions of dollars on
CAGWClimate Change, is to ensure a cheep power supply that is resilient to these types of catastrophe, which Climate Change predicts will increase in frequency, therefore we harden the network to make more resilient. To combat the inevitable “Climate Change TM”.So, it isn’t working? I wonder why that is….
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Good luck to warmists attempting to calculate a reaction rate when they don’t understand what they’re measuring.
Shooting a USB of ‘An Inconvenient Truth’ to hit ‘Russell’s Teapot’ would be more achievable.
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Late enough to somewhat O/T this
Down in comments you’ll find a new –
we’re having an attack of “extreme mildness”
http://realclimatescience.com/2016/12/100-of-us-warming-is-due-to-noaa-data-tampering/
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Given the warnings in Victoria for severe thunderstorms it will be interesting to see how our power holds up .
Lots of lightening and wind and rain starting now in the northeast.
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No power outs but storm was a dud , only problem was a smoke alarm going off every half hour or so , guess it’s the humidity as the same thing happened the night before but in another room .
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Down in comments you’ll find a new –
“we’re having an attack of “extreme mildness””
This is planed by those that wanted Hillery to win!
Until 07-23-2017 just watch! the “extreme mildness” of the Wall Street banksters! Just enough for the vast US peons to retire the pitchforks\torches, engendered in late 2016. Then lookout. The banksters are vicious beyond comprehension. These folk make the American Bald Eagle seem like a Kitty Kat! Look into the eyes of our precious ‘ABE’ then decide, for yourself, what side you wish to be on.
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followup to ROM – comment #26 –
27 Dec: EasternDailyPressUK: Dan Grimmer: UEA’s climatic unit director steps down
PIC CAPTION: Prof Phil Jones (left) and Prof Tim Osborn (right). Pic: University of East Anglia
The scientist who has led the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit for 18 years is stepping down…
Prof Osborn, who has worked at the UEA since 1990, said: “UEA provides a superb environment for climate research and so it is a privilege for me to become the Climatic Research Unit’s next director of research.
“I’m looking forward to leading our pioneering climate research, establishing with greater certainty the details of how and why the Earth’s climate is changing and the consequences for the future.”…
(Jones) “Research in climate change has come on in leaps and bounds during my career.
“When I joined the Climatic Research Unit in 1976, research in the subject was just beginning, but today it is an essential consideration for any future planning.
“It is good to know that the leadership of the Climatic Research Unit is in excellent hands.
***“I am not leaving UEA, but will continue my research on a part-time basis.”
Prof Jones made national headlines in 2009, when UEA emails were hacked in what became known as Climategate.
Climate change sceptics claimed the content of the emails showed that scientists were manipulating data.
But a string of committees found no evidence of fraud or scientific misconduct.
READ THE COMMENTS
http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/environment/uea_s_climatic_unit_director_steps_down_1_4829565
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Look for the output from the South Australian and Victorian wind farms to be extremely low over the next few days as the big high pressure system drifts across the bight.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
And the following high may push the currently trailing low pressure system south so winds may well be light for a week. Good for the storm cleanup crews (and South Australian transmission line workers), though.
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Fortunately they are not forecasting any real warmth in Adelaide until next Wednesday, either.
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Here in Belgrade, Serbia now for New Years hols, power bills are 1 dinar per KWH overnight tariff, and 3 to 4 dinars in daytime.
1 AUD buys 85 dinars.
nice reliable cheap coal – here for a week & no blackouts – how do they do it?
They are opening new car plants by the way…
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Let’s hope for Serbia’s sake that they can avoid the grip of the green blob !!
Only way continued progress can be assure.
Once the green “progressive” blob raises its putrid head.. progress stops !!!
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How is it that when the power lines fail it is the fault of renewables. When the power lines fail it is because of bad network design of poor quality construction. But of course if you want to blame renewables it must be the fault of the renewable generation sites. Never mind that when there were less renewables in SA there were more blackouts.
[David, Joanne specifically states that “It DOESN’T look like this has anything to do with renewables” So I don’t know what you are on about.] ED
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