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Happy New Year 2016
Feel free to document your predictions here…
8 out of 10 based on 37 ratings
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JoNova A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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According to the media 2015 was the hottest year; will 2016 be even hotter?
131
‘…will 2016 be even hotter?’
That appears unlikely in a La Nina year.
The tipping point into a very snowy northern hemisphere winter should begin around the middle of January.
62
As far as our “friends” in the media are concerned, every year is always the hottest year in living memory.
Unfortunately for us, the living memory of our “friends” in the media is about the same as the lifespan of a Mayfly.
302
. . . . according to the media . . . . . La Nina . . . . . or no . . . . with a few adjustments . . . . anything is possible . . . . .
71
El Nino Joseph, the answer to their prayers although there are some bright spots already. Some talking head on CNN attributed the floods in South America to the boy which is a welcome change to the climate change (global warming, in the best National Geographic accent you can muster) and therein lies the clanger. It is climate change, just not the climate change you can pin your political tail to the donkey of your political persuasion.
60
Not where I live (near Newcastle, NSW). Data from my PWS (personal weather station).
Summary for 2014
Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute) 19.3
Mean (min+max) 20.3
Mean Minimum 14.4
Mean Maximum 26.1
Minimum 4.1 day 06/08
Maximum 41.7 day 14/11
Highest Minimum 22.4 day 19/02
Lowest Maximum 15.5 day 19/07
Summary for 2015
Temperature (°C):
Mean (1 minute) 18.9
Mean (min+max) 19.5
Mean Minimum 14.6
Mean Maximum 24.5
Minimum 3.5 day 04/07
Maximum 41.0 day 26/11
Highest Minimum 26.2 day 20/12
Lowest Maximum 13.1 day 12/07
281
Real data. 1 location. Many locations could be marvellous. Very marvellous.
I have done nothing about it, but for some time now I have held the idea that modern technology has put many things which in the past could only be approached on an industrial or government basis in the reach of ordinary individuals. That includes weather stations and the processing of the information they provide.
The first thing needed is standardised equipment at a cost which ordinary people can afford. This should be possible. The second is a system for gathering and recording the information.
I would expect that such a system could find support to be viable, even commercially viable for a service provider, e.g. a hardware chain setting up a kind of club.
First design the standards for the PWS hardware.
121
A lot of countries are rolling-out fibre optic broadband networks. Fibre is relatively cheap, and is very reliable, with loads of bandwidth. All you would need to do to gather the infomation from each station, is to poll the weather station’s IP address at the same regular time each day, and trigger the station to download the data.
First design how the overall network will operate, then design the protocols for transmission, then design the standards for the PWS hardware. 🙂
40
Not a bad idea Ted, but how can you vouch for the calibration of this equipment. Surely it would have to be immaculately maintained and recorded. Then there is also the possibility of mischief. My point being that we should be able to trust able people to do this for us without any fear of being mislead. Those people being scientists for whom objective truth trumps everything. But that’s not happening here. I guess if you choose , from a point of perceived weakness, to politicise the climate you have chosen well because nobody really understands it completely which makes it ripe for manipulation.
40
Standardisation of equipment would be a good start. Assessment of site quality would aid comprehension of recorded figures. Maintenance would see problems, e.g. spider webs, hornet nests. Long term recording would help greatly, to allow periodic reading. WiFi could be good to enable drive past reading.
I was thinking of an extendable “micro” network. It would be very interesting, and I think a revelation for many current scientists, to see the variation in daily climate over distances of a couple of hundred metres, or even less in some terrains.
30
It will be terrible. The average is already a daily maxima average of 35C and the minima average looks to be almost 19C once the night has finished. These are more than 10 degrees above the record!!!!!
17
ABC weather yesterday said 2015 was the sixth hottest year for Australia.
I bet they never mention it again.
20
I predict that 2016 will be a leap year… unless (hedging one’s bets) the sun goes nova.
Otherwise, sad to say, pretty much like 2015.
70
Oh no! You know what that means, don’t you?
More temperatures than average.
180
Bernd,
I had a good chuckle at that one, thanks.
50
He’s right though, wouldn’t put it past them.
40
I think that as the public start to really catch on to the scam the powers-that-be will start to double down on their need to rule the world and make money by finding ways to ‘disrupt’ the lives of bloggers and high-profile den*ers of the faith. And nobody expects the Warmish Inquisition.
144
2016 will be the year when the Internet taxes certain words to assist with agent 52, the UN conspiracy regarding this matter. The first tax will be on the word scam. Not because it is overused and any post containing it is wasting everyone’s time, but because the UN wants to restrict its usage in case the studio 21 conspiracy is revealed.
34
An early start from Delingpole
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/31/global-warming-is-not-the-problem-global-governance-is/
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I reflect how long it’s taken for the MSM to acknowledge the developing infliction of eco-marxist Global Governance under the duplicitous phrase, ‘save the planet’.
UN Agenda 21 has been kicking about fuzzily under the radar, officially at least since 1992. Most recently, the UN Post-2015 Development Agenda (described in the UN document as ‘The Agenda’) explicitly sets out the ambition, shape, implication and aspiration of global governance in a trifling fourteen years – by 2030.
At long last Delingpole brings the established position of the governing Western elite to the attention of the sheeple at the dawn of 2016. He alerts a wider audience who may have hitherto considered the idea of eco-global governance to be a nonsensical conspiracist delusion, to the reality that it actually is in the process of implemetation.
It’s no coincidence that freedom crushing advocates of the green vision fight loose and fast with the label of conspiracist ideation, as we witnessed from the four stooges, Lewandowsky, Cook, Oberauer, and Marriott in their revealing comedy sketch, ‘The involvement of conspiracist ideation in science denial’.
The mere idea of unrepresentative global governance by a faceless eco-totalitarian bureaucracy seems so far fetched, the natural response is disbelief. In truth, it is this refexive disbelief that the progressive elite rely upon to advance their Agenda. By the time it becomes visible and the incredulous become credulous, push-back will be very difficult if not impossible.
I hope, though I wouldn’t be so bold as to predict that 2016 will be a year that marks a growing awakening by substantial dormant sections of the Fourth Estate as they ‘rediscover’ their purpose through a growing awareness of the machiavellian intentions and ‘mission drift’ of the UN, a bureaucratic organisation fast becoming eco-global governance in all but name.
172
Manfred, I agree that Delingpole is finally shining a light on the unrepresentative global governance in waiting of the loony-left UN.
(IMO)However the word used to sneak all the socio-economic clap-trap passed the unsuspecting public is the word ‘SUSTAINABILITY’.
This is THE BS word of the UN. Just mentally edit all UN documents substituting words starting ‘sustain…’ with words like ‘thief’, ‘thieve’, ‘theft’, or ‘steal’ to see the true meaning of their agenda.
32
James Delingpole writes another brilliant article about the “AGW Myth”. Former Canadian oil man Maurice Strong (recently deceased) made his fortune (billions) from the “Hydrocarbon Industry” and then decides that it has been responsible, together with coal, for causing dangerous GW on planet Earth. As a consequence he then proceeds to initiate the “AGW Scare Mongering” campaign via the “UN’s Agenda 21 Strategy” resulting in the formation of the “Climate Scam Bureau” better known as the IPCC. Strong, an “Eco-Fascist Marxist”, as Delingpole aptly describes him, can hang his head in shame for precipitating the biggest scam in human history and resulting in global economic ruin and destroying the lives of the World’s most needy.
131
The Canadian Ice Service predictions for winter 2016 off eastern Canada (where my new novel, EATEN, is set) is for extensive ice for the third year in a row.
http://polarbearscience.com/2015/12/03/spring-sea-ice-prediction-for-next-year-off-newfoundland-extensive-ice-coverage/
With 2016 set to meet my “what-if” scenario handily, only nine years to go for the situation in 2025 to meet my terrifying prediction for an onslaught of polar bears.
I know shipping books to Australia/NZ is expensive but if you’ve got an ebook reader of some kind, you can have immediate gratification AND a lower price.
An excellent read for the beach…probably fewer nightmares.
Kindle at http://www.amazon.com/Eaten-novel-Susan-Crockford/dp/151930255X
Other formats (including Apple) at https://www.smashwords.com/books/view/592875
Happy New Year to all,
Susan
180
OMG, how boring!!! … /sarc
90
Susan,
Doesn’t the title rather give the game away – unless it’s some kind of ursine bluff of course?
Do you have the book in an audio format ? On-line radio has fortunately or unfortunately rather habituated me to getting so much more done whilst listening to a good story.
Best Wishes,
Eddie
20
Eddie,
Sorry, no audio version but a useful thought. I had been thinking more of translations – French, German, perhaps Norwegian (they have polar bears). But I’ll keep that idea in mind.
Susan
20
Here are my most optimistic predictions.
Governments, Bureaucrats, and Politicians will continue to be what they are. A few more people will wake up and want to change things for the better. Sadly, they will no more know how to do that than Governments, Bureaucrats, and Politicians. They will demand more of the same and hope for different results. They will get only more of the same.
This assures that the year 2016 will be the same as the year 2015. The musical chairs of Government will be warmed by people with different names but who will sing the same old song to the same old tune. Thus, once again, demonstrating that the more things change the more they will stay the same.
The bottom line is that we don’t need better people in Government, we need better ideas in the people. Only then will things change for the better.
211
Bill Shorten becomes Prime Minister, much to the surprise of the Labor Party, but is subsequently replaced by Tanya Plibersek, who is replaced by Anthony Albanese, who is replaced by Bill Shorten just before the next election.
Malcolm Turnbull departs Parliament and goes on to forge a career as a consultant in wind, solar energy and pedal-powered energy production in the Third World. Scott (Wayne) Morrison joins Wayne Swann to form an economic advisory company, hoping to compete in the EU market. Julie Bishop wonders where all her friends have gone.
210
Be careful what you are joking about; it might just happen, to the detriment and self-destruction of our nation. If Labor in its current form ever gets back into power, we can kiss goodbye to the Australia we know. Ironical NZ will then be a far better place to live. Some say it already is.
130
There is much to be concerned about when it comes to Turnbull and this government; they are almost Labor in a Liberal suit, and could be worse.
161
At the end of the day we are screwed either way but I prefer to keep out socialist Labor and the Greens out at all costs. They have done far too much damage already when they were in government. At least with the Libs that have the Nats to try and keep them as honest as they can (not enough unfortunately). So things should decay more slowly under them. It’s the lesser of two evils I suppose. Give us a little more time to enjoy our freedoms before they are ripped off from us down the road.
110
One thing is for certain, I won’t be voting Liberal; National if I can, but not Liberal. I really don’t want to see Turnbull with a smug face as PM after the next election. And I honestly don’t know whether Liberal, as it stands now, is the lesser of two evils.
140
They are the greater at the moment. remember my friend, as a good rule of thumb, Its Liberal, It Lies. 🙂
39
Catamon, only you (and most Leftists) would be dumb enough to believe that lies are told exclusively by the Right, Liberal, Republican side.
Liar, thief and politician are synonyms.
40
Quoting Bemused – “There is much to be concerned about when it comes to Turnbull and this government; they are almost Labor in a Liberal suit, and could be worse”.
Bemused are you saying that Turnbull is a Turncoat? Well actually he is a hybrid – part blue, part red & part green, ie the rainbow man who has already found his pot of gold.
50
I will never “fall in behind” Turnbull after 30 years as a dedicated Liberal member. And the new modern progressive Liberal Party set him up and assisted him to become the PM. Did you see Kroger’s videos on Tim Blair’s blog?
He says in part: Turnbull is a good communicator; he has very good use of language; has no enemies or targets; no one feels that he is after them; he doesn’t have to settle scores with history; he says he’s calm, relaxed and at peace with the world; the man has the confidence of a large proportion of the nation; he is very skilled talking to the electorate; he is going to do very well; he has very good use of language.
He’s very raw, very earthy, very natural, very modern; doesn’t use flowery phrases, overblown rhetoric (which we probably have been accused of rightly in the past); he’ll change policy; the innovation and internet startups and the whole culture of young people has gone down incredibly well.
Makes one weep. The world’s gone mad. Nothing is how we thought it was.
2016? My hope is that Turnbull makes the biggest blunder that he has to leave in shame and Tony Abbott is reinstated as our elected Prime Minister.
90
A few weeks back I visited several NZ cities, pretty impressed in general, Christchurch was a little sad due to the earthquake and I thought Dunedin was very livable. The cleanliness and lack of people smoking in public places outstanding. Apparently there is a campaign to eradicate smoking as someone has added up the consequential health bill. Also their PM apparently doesn’t draw a salary; will Malcom follow suit?
70
I abhor smoking, but the health costs associated with smoking have been promoted in exactly the same way as the global warming scare. Catallaxy Files has covered this in great detail and provided some facts that completely destroy the smoking related health cost myth. The health do gooders are very much like the climate doo gooders, they want to totally control your life.
113
For those that pretend that the likes of our government funded health organisations don’t want to control our lives in much the same way as the climate worriers, consider all the proposals that they put forward each year. All for your own good of course, because they know better. To wit:
– Cigarettes; bad for you, let’s increase the tax.
– Alcohol, bad for you, let’s increase the tax.
– Fatty foods; bad for you, let’s increase the tax.
– Sugary drinks; bad for you, let’s increase the tax.
– Fast foods; bad for you, let’s increase the tax.
The list goes on. Notice a pattern?
90
The only pattern I can see is every one of the people making these proposals is Mother Theresa.
30
Oh yes, and I forgot the other half. Each year our government funded health authorities seek more government funding for ‘research’ for all that ails modern society, because there’s never enough funding for research. Now where have I heard that before?
70
Robert O, you obviously weren’t there in the company of approximately 18,000 students customarily present for University and Polytechnic semesters. They bring life, money, noise and reality to what would otherwise be a hypnotic backwater visited only by passing cruise liners full of people keen to see the land that time forgot.
20
Happy New Year everyone!!
The easier prediction to make and know it will be correct is that I will continue to enjoy Jo’s site and the contributions made by all the posters.
COP22 will continue in the same vain as COP21 and the planned COP23 will also be the same.
121
“El Nino has peaked.
It was not significantly larger, in magnitude comparable with 1997 and 1983”
http://ioc-goos-oopc.org/state_of_the_ocean/sur/pac/nino3.4.php
Dec 31, 2015 at 11:56 AM | Unregistered Commenter Hans Erren
From http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/12/31/splitters-deniers-and-circular-firing-squads.html#comments
http://ioc-goos-oopc.org/state_of_the_ocean/sur/pac/nino3.4.php
30
Yesterday the Daily Mail online was trying to claim that this El Nino is the biggest ever and still growing. Sorry, no link to hand. I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry or have a heart attack.
Happy New Year to Jo and all despite the above. 🙂
80
Woke up sober and none the wiser yet again, so to everyone here,
Merry new year!
100
One could argue that if you woke up sober, you’re doing it wrong… or you’re a sensible person who doesn’t overindulge.
70
I’m a person that doesn’t indulge, but I’ll fight for anyone’s right to do otherwise.
Just glad to rise another day and be able to converse with the extraordinary people that visit here.
May tenacity and luck blend to create our victory in 2016.
110
Can you predict the year when folk accept that CAGW has less scientific merit than “Disco dancing”? Merry, merry but in the US Glenfiddich is now $40 per .75 liter. O whoa are we!
70
That, believe it or not, is something of a good sign. Very cheap booze is often an indication of a government that wants the population to indulge in mind-numbing.
Perhaps television is the modern alternative; esp “reality TV” as invented in Australia by the ABC.
70
” “reality TV” as invented in Australia by the ABC.”
I think the US “candid camera” might have pipped the ABC by a decade or three.
31
In our household I do most of the grocery shopping. Every time I go to the fruit and vegies I remember Candid Camera as I try to open the plastic bags, CC in the days of snowy black and white TV once ran a recording where they swapped the roll of plastic bags for a roll of plastic film and set a camera up to record the people trying to open the non bags. I have never trusted the plastic bags since.
50
Lucky you Will. It costs heaps more here. I haven’t checked lately as it is outside our range of so-called affordability!
50
Mein Gott im Himmel hilf mir!
“The Glenfiddich 12 Year is distinctively fresh and fruity with a hint of pear on the nose.”
This is worse than interpreting the meaning of bison outlines on cave walls!!
70
Annie
I bought a bottle to sample after Will mentioned it earlier.
$95. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Taste was to my palate, very ordinary.
Can buy almost 3 bottles of a great Badinet Brandy for the same.
Am going to stop drinking this year and get back on the bike; after I replace to 4 broken spokes.
KK
40
The only Glenfiddich we ever had was a gift. I did like it but if we want a spirit-based refreshment I’m afraid it’s usually cheap gin with a reasonable tonic. Bombay Sapphire and the like only ever after travelling through Dubai!
30
Me too KK. Time to get out there, trails to ride and trout to catch. On the whiskey thing, isn’t whiskey just a direct result of Scotsmen being determined to make something alcoholic in a wild cold land?. Niggle niggle.
40
Just buy a whole new wheel with a week’s savings
13
Ceetee – you sassenach. Whiskey is Irish or American. The Scots make whisky.
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KinkyKeith January 1, 2016 at 5:55 pm ·
” Annie, I bought a bottle to sample after Will mentioned it earlier.
$95. Taste was to my palate, very ordinary.”
Hey guys I was introduced to Dewar’s White Label by the California billboard of she holding only towel in front. With the caption “Once you thought this was yuck too” Dewars! A damned blend!
Good single malt completely replaces your palate! I now drink mostly beer, spaced by tomato juice and cheap vodka, plus teriyaki sauce! The Glenfiddich is but for sacred rituals such as Sh00ting damn offsprouts that wish to steal such!
30
Jo
FYI on global temperature stations
“Gail Combs says:
December 30, 2015 at 7:35 pm
Here is an animation showing the changes in station count over the years. This alone is enough reason to go with the satillite data that has better coverage”
In comments at
https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/12/30/the-one-thing-a-scientist-should-never-ever-do/#comments
73
There is an excellent essay on Quadrant written by Ray Evans before his death last year.
This passage embodies the Pagan rituals which we are all fighting:
For a long time to come, our top national priority in countries like Australia should be to reduce the GNP as fast as possible, because we are grossly over-developed and over-producing and over-consuming and there’s no possibility of all people ever rising to the per capita levels we now have, let alone those we’re determined to grow to.
Often it is obvious that developments that would do wonders for the GNP should be prohibited, such as devoting local land and water to export crops.
There would be far less trade and transporting of goods than there is now. There would have to be many co-operative arrangements; the sharing of tools, many community workshops, orchards, forests, ponds, gardens, and regular community meetings and working bees.
Applying the concept of appropriate development in the over-developed countries would make it possible for most people to live well on only one day’s work for cash per week, because many of the relatively few things they need would come from their own gardens, from barter, from gifts of surpluses and from the many free sources within the neighbourhood.[emphasis added]
……….Ted Traynor, lecturer in the Department of Education at the University of New South Wales, gave a talk on Robyn Williams’s ABC radio program Ockham’s Razor in May 1990
I wish I could broadcast this from the rooftops in Tasmania.
101
Kinda like a permaculture stoner age.
40
Hang on a mo… Tasmania is like that already, known as Victoria’s retirement home (in partnership with the gold coast). Except that Tasmania had it’s ecomomy surgically removed by the greens several years ago and is now lingering on life support.
The Bass interconnector better not go down too hard or Tasmania’s life support machine (Western Australia) might give up the ghost entirely.
50
Around the same time (1990) Peter Garrett and Bob Geldolf were jointly interviewed on RN. Garret was rabbitting on about everyone living in villages and growing their own food, and so on, pretty much saying what you report of Ted Traynor. Geldolf, no hero of mine, had a moment of lucidity, and suggested to Garrett that well, actually, lots of people live in cities, cities are pretty much a certainty into the future, and how about Garrett gets real. This is an interview worth resurrecting for its comedic value.
00
Oh, and Garrett never did get real. But pink batt fantasies did become important in his, and others’, lives.
01
Happy New Year Jo & David and all the regulars here, lets hope 2016 is the year of enlightenment not just the year of the Monkey! Although a little bit of monkey mischief would not go astray!
I went looking on the commercial channels last night for the Sydney fireworks and countdown and did not find it anywhere (or Melbourne) did anyone see the actual countdown or just the after reruns??
60
It was on the ABC – for that reason we missed it too – on purpose. Apparently it was another childish, undergrad type transmission (apart from the fireworks themselves).
51
We couldn’t stand the pr@ts compering it on the ABC. Telly off all evening, husband went to bed, I turned on just for the fireworks, muted the sound, found the Melbourne ones somewhere then turned off. This morning I watched the HK ones courtesy of the UK Telegraph. I wish someone somewhere would have fireworks to the music for the Royal Fireworks!
41
Year of the Monkey.
That might explain these two headlines:
Monkey steals a bus and crashes it into two parked vehicles while the driver takes a nap in India
Priest stoned to death by MONKEYS which have already killed two other men
2016: Planet of the Apes?
50
It sounds to me like the monkeys were stoned.
50
So what you are saying is that the commercial channels found no value in providing this to you and when they didn’t provide something you still like what they provide? Then there are the others that blame the ABC for providing what the commercials could have provided (and yes I know about the Sydney rights aspect of the coverage) but it afaik it did not preclude the other channels from providing something/anything to count 2016 in as you seemed to be craving.
03
I predict that in the next decade, Tim Flannery will get one forecast correct.
28
That can’t happen. If Flannery predicted that one of the popes will die this century, they would both live through the next 85 years.
102
Yep, he will predict that all his predictions will be wrong.
01
Healthy, Happy and prosperous New Year to everyone.
woke up to what I interpreted as the Hawke Govt in 1990/91 wanted to raise revenue by imposing a carbon tax. of course, it’s being spun that the concern was for the climate:
1 Jan: ABC AM: Confidential Cabinet papers show carbon tax on the agenda since Hawke govt
TOM IGGULDEN: The economy continued to worsen but Cabinet papers revealed today by the national archives show the government’s inner circle also grappling with issues that might be more familiar to today’s voters.
The emerging danger of climate change caused much discussion.
A “carbon tax for energy use” was put forward as one potential response, as well as a “carbon tax type” tax based on all greenhouse gas emissions…
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2015/s4380720.htm
following worth a full read:
1 Jan: The Conversation: Cabinet papers 1990: deja vu? We’re having the same debate about climate as we were then
by Marc Hudson, PhD Candidate, Sustainable Consumption Institute, University of Manchester
The National Archives of Australia today released selected federal cabinet records for 1990 and 1991. They reveal intense battles over Australia’s domestic climate targets and, above all, a palpable determination that Australia not damage its coal revenue. Deja vu?
In March 1990 Bob Hawke won, with help from green-minded voters, an unprecedented (for Labor) fourth federal election.
However, all was not well in his cabinet, with the economy in trouble (“the recession we had to have”) and Paul Keating circling for the top job he’d been promised…
Doubting the science
A November 1991 briefing called “Negotiations for a Convention on Climate Change”, written by a clear-eyed diplomat, warned:
“The science of climate change is complex and there are still areas of uncertainty: some countries (including the US, China and the USSR) exploit this to negotiate for minimal legal obligations.”
The briefing counselled that:
“The dominant ideologists of the South India, China, Malaysia and Mexico – have seized on the Climate Change Convention negotiations as a new opportunity to achieve the Third World objectives of the 1970s and 1980s.”…
Fortunately,
“a cost-effective option for Australia to reduce its emissions may be through technology transfer or projects which reduce emissions in developing countries.”
Which brings us neatly to the question of “clean coal”…READ ALL
http://theconversation.com/cabinet-papers-1990-deja-vu-were-having-the-same-debate-about-climate-as-we-were-then-52143
40
Prediction (99.7% confidence level): The UN, with the acquiescence of weak governments around the world, will continue its drive for more money to spend on junkets. COP22 is already planned for 2 weeks in Nov 2016 in Marrakesh in the Kingdom of Morocco to escape those cold European winters.
And my wish for 2016: That we get some politicians and scientists with the gumption to stand up and declare that they have had enough of this climate change boondoggle that is costing us all, and focus attention on improving the health and well being of all people around the world that they may live in peace with each other.
And to Jo and David and all the contributors to this blog: Enjoy life in 2016.
131
Happy New Year everybody! And to start on the right note…
http://climatechangepredictions.org/
Especially the Arctic Ice one (do note the dates)
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/5614
40
I found this gem of a comment over at Real Science.
Frank says:
December 30, 2015 at 8:50 pm
As a Senior Electrical Engineer, experienced in multispectral and RF sensors (radars and infrared sensors), and trained in statistical signal analysis…. I find it sadly amusing to see supposed “scientists”, arguing over whether to start a statistical analysis, on incomplete, sparse data, from 1890, or 1979, (or whenever, in human’s short recorded history), and do any rational mathematical analysis, over reams of conflicting data… and then drawing grand “settled proof” conclusions…
1. Assuming the earth is 4 billion years old: 10 year, 100 year, or even 1,000 year data sample sets (and any interpreted trends) are totally, statistically insignificant. On a macro scale, a sample size of .000025% is just so completely meaningless! (And that weakness is not changed by when you start it.) And on a micro scale, any sample, that is a small fraction of an oscillation period (think sun-cycles), is even more meaningless.
2. You cannot rationally draw a linear trend, of ANY kind, about a non-linear, complex variable, oscillating systems. (Especially a system with little-understood energy-input forcing functions, which are non-linear, with complex multiple-periodicity overlapping oscillations; and with the system, itself, consisting of multitudes of complex-variable damping and storage functions……)
3. By definition, only the Energy Inputs to a system are Forcing Functions, everything else is a damping or storage function. So CO2, by definition, is NOT a forcing function.
4. Science is about repeatable experiments… period. Everything else is speculation. My opinion is as worthless as yours. The only real facts are those, which can be experimentally repeated, under controlled conditions. Sparsely measured data of an uncontrolled system, with lots of variables, and that data’s interpretation, are NOT science.
— Peer review is meaningless, if there is no experiment to repeat. Presenting an interpretation of reams of data, with a whole bunch of letters (ex. PhD) after your name, to prove you are smarter than the next guy; and then having another person, again, with lots of letters after their name, to prove their intelligence, agree with you; that is NOT peer review. It is NOT science. It is intellectual incest.
— A scientific, repeatable experiment can be suggested… (Try it, it has been done; any high school science fair group with a decent budget can do this.) For instance, set up a multispectral energy sensor at one end of a long table (maybe 20+ft), inside sealed large box, the same size as the table. Put a radiating energy source, that matches/simulates the sun’s spectral energy signature, across the whole spectrum; at the other end of the table (also inside the sealed box). Pump air from the box, to get a good a, outer-space-like vacuum. Measure the results. Pump in air samples that match various layers of the earth’s atmosphere, (troposphere, etc.) Measure the results. Now repeat the whole set of experiments, adding increasing levels of CO2. Measure the results.
— What you will find, (scientifically, repeatably), is that CO2 quickly saturates its energy absorption, nearing 98+% energy absorption, at very low ppm levels, in the narrow energy spectral bandwidths (the spectral wavelengths) that CO2 absorbs energy in. (Which, by the way, are only a small fraction of the sun’s energy over the whole spectrum). Once saturation is near complete, doubling or tripling the CO2 concentration has little, to no effect.
—- For the non-Engineer, or non-Scientist, whose eyes have glazed over at the fancy words in preceding paragraphs, here is a simple, easy to understand explanation. You are looking down a hallway, into a room with a light. It lights the hallway. You can see. (Your eye detects the energy of the light). Someone closes the door of the room. (The CO2 saturates its energy absorption.) Now it is hard to see, because it is dark. (Most of the light’s energy is blocked by the door (saturated CO2) from reaching your eye {the sensor}). Now, close a second door, between you and the light in the room. (Double the amount CO2, after saturation). It still is hard to see, maybe a little harder to see, because it is dark (maybe just a little darker). But the difference in you being able to see, between an open door and a closed door, is huge. The difference in you being able to see, with one door closed, and 2 doors closed is very little.
— This scientific, repeatable experiment, will confirm, to anyone willing to try it, That CO2 CANNOT cause significant temperature increase on earth.
— Any High School Biology teacher could tell you the following nugget. We are carbon based life forms. Almost all life on earth is carbon based. CO2 is the basis of photosynthesis, which is the basis of 99.9% of the all food chains on earth. (In scientific terms, CO2 is the limiting reactant in the photosynthesis chemical reaction.) Which means the more CO2 you have, the richer the food chain; the more food you have. Ask any horticulturist, what happens if you pump extra CO2 into a greenhouse. You get lusher tomatoes and roses. To know these facts, and then label CO2, (the Elixir of Life), a poison, to be regulated… Wow, how lacking in common sense, how willfully ignorant do you have to be????
242
Surely, this is not OUR Frank; illustrious musketeer colleague of Hairy Flyswatter and Triton?
42
Could well be. Frank, like Tristine, only seems to turn up when Harry has dug himself another enormous hole and fallen into it.
I predict that this year, the three of them will come out, and declare themselves as a manage-et-trois.
42
manage-et-trois. ??
What’s that in English? Menage en trois perhaps?
Has it occurred to you that they are all the same person?
42
Yes, of course it has.
But the apparent scope and depth of knowledge is different, for each entity.
Also the language formation and usage is different for each entity, but it is consistent over a number of comments. And while it is not impossible to fudge that, it is very hard to stay consistent over multiple interactions, and especially over multiple threads on different topics. The mental cost of maintaining the illusion would not be justified by the return.
Ergo, they are a tag team. My comment was intended to suggest that they are in bed with each other.
I apologise for my bad French. Languages have never been my strong suit.
52
Thank you, I was going to check out that thought but you’ve saved me the trouble. I don’t bother reading their posts but it seemed to me that they were commenting favourably on each others posts, for reasons of morale?
As for the correction we pedants get excited by such deviations, usually caused by people believing what they read in Wikipedia.
32
Rereke Whakaaro.
I can see you are in usual form, insults at the ready. Pity the insults have nothing to do with Climate Science.
—
So sayth the man who issues insults that don’t even have anything to do with science because he thinks the Scientific Method is done by opinion polls. – Jo
11
Not an insult – an insult requires some emotional effort. In your case I merely make observations.
11
‘Ménage à trois’ is the right expression.
10
Exactly!
00
What you have written is true, of course, but sadly is of little significance beyond a small band of pale loiterers (us)
The beast of Noble Cause Corruption has no reason to listen …
61
Bravo to that man Frank. Thank you ColA. My sentiments exactly though I would add that once the absorption is saturated it easily transfers heat to the water vapour for reradiating. The many pipes as proposed in David Evans’ model analogy.
62
“Intellectual incest” – oh, I love that! Perfect description of “mates review”.
60
ColA
a brilliant post, it says it all …
happy New Year 😀
20
Unless something is done urgently, the erosion of national sovereignty (and therefore democracy) by the UN Global Warming and Global Government bandwagon will continue to roll. We owe a great deal to Jo Nova for faithful exploration of true science . Let’s hope 2016 will see real progress in halting the AGW nonsense and a return to real science and honest enquiry.
133
Although there is nothing new in this A/V presentation by Gary Smith (a retired Chevron geologist in Calgary), it embodies much of the sentiment discussed on JoNova in a format that is easy to understand by the layman.
I choke on a couple of things with which I take issue. Perhaps if other folks watch this hour long presentation we can have some discussion.
a) about 11:30 he has consumed the Koolaid regarding the mysterious “33 degrees” of adiabatic lapse rate with the mythical “greenhouse effect”.
b) Near the end he advocates the end of coal in favour of a slow and reasoned introduction of so-called “renewables”, while ignoring the fact that it is relatively straightforward to capture the SO2 and NO2 from coal fired facilities, and the obvious reality and cost drawbacks of any eventual dependence on “renewables”.
52
January of every year the media led by ABC, channels 7 & 10 usually start the El Niño threats & predictions.
Last year,2015, started like that. Every few months the predictions of the worst ever, and even a “Godzilla” El Niño emerged. Thru the final 6 months of the year there were predictions of fire & brimstone, droughts & disaster.
It would however appear that El Niño missed the bus or whatever unreliable transport he uses. We have had a couple of hot weeks, really good rains, & now Queensland is having monsoonal rains.
Australia is known to have 3 seasons, flood, fire or drought. The 3 seasons have delivered all this year. It’s actually known as weather and every year the 3 elements are delivered.
I wonder how El Niño will be advertised this year. They really a new advertising team as the old message is getting really boring & predictable.
92
This drought was different. It started shortly after the Gillard/Brown government, at the behest of an animal liberation group and the ABC, stopped live cattle exports to Indonesia. As a result there were too many cattle in Australia when the drought started.
The worst situation a grazier can can find himself in is to have too many livestock when a drought starts. Because this means less fodder reserves in the paddock, and lower prices when he sells to reduce numbers. The drought bites sooner and harder. This effect spreads across the whole industry.
That action by government was part of the same campaign as the AGW scam, to contribute to the elimination of private management of industry.
40
Gotcha!
“Time.com Writer Cites Temperature at North Pole, Alaska As From THE North Pole”
http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/nb/tom-blumer/2015/12/30/timecom-writer-cites-temperature-north-pole-alaska-north-pole
50
The Guardian aims to scare us all they can,
By blaming every weather change on man.
It seems that viewpoints at the A.B.C.,
Can not with climate dogma disagree.
Such folly to decarbonize; their goal,
Like casting trillions down a great black hole.
Much data is by warmists readjusted,
So what they claim as true can not be trusted.
The climate C.O.P.s conclude with man to blame,
As the U.N. feeds alarm with guilt and shame.
The price of power in more ways than one,
Could wipe the Greens away, their dreams undone.
May the New Year be for skeptics ever bright,
Filled with hope that all the warmists see the light.
160
Oops
#22 was via
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2015/12/y2kyoto-ill-mis-75.html#comments
20
Happy, or even happyish, seems over-optimistic. A slightly less disastrous New Year to everyone.
30
Happy New Year to Jo and family and fellow bloggers …
hope you all have a great year 😀
50
2016. Welcome to our Green Future:
Cow dung patties selling like hot cakes online in India
“Amazon’s even offering them – in India
Used to fuel fires, they remind folks of older times
They can even be gift-wrapped
Some retailers say they’re offering discounts for large orders.”
. . .
As recommended by Al Gore.
80
handjive
They have other uses
An obnoxious public servant around here was presented with a “farewell cake” – a nicely iced one of them.
And a send-off presentation which had a well dried and esterpoled one on a wooden plaque with the capyion
“Sometimes you spoke it
And sometimes you wrote it
So take it and go”
30
Gawd – new glasses or an edit function. And I’m toobroke to afford the glasses
27.1 “caption”
20
Happy New Year, Jo, David and Family.
All the best to everyone!
🙂 KK
60
it’s clear 2016 promises more alarmism…especially as temperatures keep “increasing and decreasing”!
high-flying CAGW activists hold a “mock trial” in Paris:
31 Dec: Democracy Now: The People vs. Exxon: As Fossil Fuel Cover-Up Exposed, Activists Try Oil Giant for “Climate Crimes”
During the recent U.N. climate summit in Paris, environmental activists held a “mock trial” charging Exxon with “climate crimes.” …
The witnesses were questioned by two leading environmentalists acting as chief prosecutors: Bill McKibben, co-founder of 350.org, and journalist Naomi Klein…
JANNIE STAFFANSON: My name is Jannie Staffanson, and I am Sami from the Arctic. I was born and I live in a reindeer-herding family…
BILL McKIBBEN: What is—has that begun—you’ve indicated that that’s begun to change in recent years.
***JANNIE STAFFANSON: So, the temperature are increasing and decreasing, which we have never seen at such a rate, and each and every day is different. Usually, we — I have heard stories about good winters, right? where we didn’t have to be out tending for the reindeers or digging holes so they can reach the food. But with the increase and decrease of temperature, there are ice crests on the snow, which makes the reindeer unable to smell the food underneath, and therefore it will not dig for it. And even if they try, it’s not strong enough. So they starve to death.
BILL McKIBBEN: So, because of these freeze-thaw cycles, it’s becoming difficult for the reindeer to access their forage…
JANNIE STAFFANSON: Yeah, the food. Yeah, they starve. We have had bad winters as such, as long as I can remember, and my whole generation. We are the generation of climate change…
CHERRI FOYTLIN (journalist, contributor to BridgeTheGulfProject.org): … I think Exxon is corporate serial killers. I think they’re murderers. And I think they need to go on trial, and I think the death penalty needs to happen.
BILL McKIBBEN: Thank you very much…
http://www.democracynow.org/2015/12/31/the_people_vs_exxon_as_fossil
40
CAGW explains everything:
1 Jan: Express Tribune Pakistan (affiliated with International New York Times): Iftikhar Firdous: Swept under the carpet: Climate change remains little-known threat in K-P
Climate change is a subject that is not widely discussed in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa even though spending in this regard has increased by 88% over the last four years from Rs13 billion to Rs24.4 billion…
Winter has become particularly harsh and the precipitation levels have also been affected.
Snowfall that was expected in February began in November. Erratic patterns of rainfall have caused flooding…
Senior bureaucrats involved in policy-making refuse to acknowledge the existence of climate change…
Climate change is here to stay and adaptability is the only solution. Experts have warned that if precautionary measures are not taken, the effects will be devastating…
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1019930/swept-under-the-carpet-climate-change-remains-little-known-threat-in-k-p/
41
‘Snowfall that was expected in February began in November. Erratic patterns of rainfall have caused flooding…’
We can expect more of this in 2016 as the world cools.
50
31 Dec: WaPo: Joby Warrick: Wind, solar power soar in spite of bargain prices for fossil fuels
Yet amid a worldwide glut of cheap fossil fuels, business is blowing strong for Vestas Wind Systems and its CEO, Anders Runevad.
The company posted record gains in 2015 and inked major deals to build wind farms in the United States, Europe, Africa and Asia. That boom in turbine sales was part of a global surge for wind and solar energy,
which occurred despite oil, coal and natural gas selling at bargain rates…
But equally important, experts say, are new government policies here and abroad that favor investment in renewables, as well as a growing willingness by Wall Street to pour billions of dollars into projects once considered financially risky…
“Renewables have turned a corner in a fundamental way,” said Dan Reicher, a former Energy Department assistant secretary who is now executive director of Stanford University’s Steyer-Taylor Center for Energy Policy and Finance…
“The policy base for renewables has strengthened, both on the incentives side and through mandates,” Reicher said. “At the same time, the financing of renewable-energy projects has become a mainstream business for Wall Street…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/wind-solar-power-soar-in-spite-of-bargain-prices-for-fossil-fuels/2015/12/30/754758b8-af19-11e5-9ab0-884d1cc4b33e_story.html
2 pages: 31 Dec: Woodstock Times: Bob Berman: Solar: Buy, lease — or forget the whole thing?
If you have a typical two-month electric bill of at least $150, where you’re using over 6000 kW per year, and pay enough taxes to be able to use the government write-offs, and have a sunny roof or a good enough
spot on your property, you should know that the greatest financial benefit comes from owning a solar system outright.
***Your system will probably cost around $31,000 whether it’s installed on your roof or elsewhere on your property. But with the current grants (roughly $3,550), and Federal tax credit ($8000) and New York state credit ($5000) you’ll wind up paying just $14,000 out of pocket. That’s for a typical 7.5 Kw system, which will generate about 9000 Kw hours annually…
Congress just unexpectedly agreed to a major extension of the current generous federal solar subsidies. As a credit, you take the amount directly off your tax payment, rather than as a deduction from your taxable income. You can claim the credit for your primary residence, a vacation home, and for either an existing structure or new construction. The state credits can be taken over a period of up to five years.
So, first see if you pay enough in New York and Federal taxes to avail yourself of the subsidies. If you pay no taxes, then all you’ll get is that 40 cents per watt NYSERDA grant. If that’s the case, a typical system shoots up to an out-of-pocket cost of around $27,000, plus or minus a few thousand. Then the pay-back time may exceed 20 years and it may no longer make sense to do it…
It’s free energy. We might as well use it.
http://www.woodstockx.com/2015/12/31/solar-buy-lease-or-forget-the-whole-thing/
40
Tony, that’s a fabulous idea! I live in the Blue Mountains with a Labor/Green Council, a population of “alternatives” who are always pushing their agenda in the local paper and community meetings. Many of them rely on the electric train service to get to anywhere in the Mountains or the coastal plain. Both of your Green Days would totally bu**er them. After trying to speak to some of these, so called, intelligent people it is clear they do not have a clue as to the outcome of “decarbonisation”. Pity it is never going to happen, not deliberately, anyway.
30
Sorry, this should have been a response to Tony’s comment No 32 – time for a wee malt!
30
A happy New Year to you Joanne, David, and family, and to all the commenters here, and also to those who just come here to read, because you also are part of all this, and to our believers who also come here, bored that their own sites of choice have nowhere near the constant content here.
I’m going to propose that this year, we lobby hard for our people in power to reserve two Special Days for this year, two Green Days to give them a name. Let’s not have them close together, say four or five Months apart. In fact, we could even use them as an example to the whole World, you know, as The Greens say, Australia should lead by example.
When it comes to total emissions, there are two major sources, Electrical Power Generation which makes up 40% of Emissions, and Transportation, which makes up 32% of emissions, so right there, just those two largest contributors, there’s all but three quarters of man made emissions.
So, on our Special Green Day Number One, say a weekday working day, a Monday, and let’s make it for Mid July in the depths of Winter. Let’s make this first special green day the day we shut down EVERY single power generating entity which uses fossil fuels, not just take them off line, but shut them down completely. We can show the World just what it would be like to live just one day without that power. The whole Country will grind to a complete stop. It’ll take at least three days before some power comes back up and running, and probably at least a week before some sort of normality will return, but hey we will have shown it can be done. The cost will be absolutely astronomical. It will be a disaster unparalleled in our history.
For the second of our special green days, we take every form of transport off the roads completely. No private transport in any form, no public transport, no trains, no delivery trucks, small medium or large, no ambulances, police vehicles, fire vehicles, tractors, mining equipment, nothing. It won’t be as much of a disaster as day one, but it will still be disastrous.
However, we will have shown the Whole World it actually can be done, and just what it might look like.
These two special days will have a huge added bonus.
This whole debate about emissions will disappear, completely and utterly.
The people will not stand for it.
All those people who believe will be looking for rocks to crawl under, but they’ll be easy to find. They’ll be the ones with the stunned looks on their faces.
This won’t be a cause of celebration for those people like me, because just like them, we will also have suffered to just barely survive through it.
Something like this will NEVER happen. Those people in positions of power KNOW what will happen, while at the same time, loudly saying what they think certain elements of the public want to hear them say, how they support measures to blah blah blah.
There are people in power who need to be telling the people the REAL truth, no matter how unpalatable that might be, and how certain that in telling the truth, they’ll be thrown out of office on their @sses, but at least the people will be better informed than they are now.
Just TWO special green days is all it would take.
75% of all man made emissions. Two sources, both of them absolutely essential, and with nothing to replace them. NOTHING.
Someone has to lead.
You can bet it won’t be Australia.
Tony.
173
Tony
I’m afraid you’re forgetting that socialist hope that
“It must work if we give it one more try”
80
On one hand, I think we should lobby hard for the 2nd option, as it would be slightly easier to implement (like ‘walk/bike to work day’, but banning all fossil fuelled vehicles from the roads). I foresee a number of local councils, and possibly state governments who could be convinced that this is a “vote winner”.
Why should the UN and large financial institutions have the monopoly with regards to using noisy ignorant “environmental” activists as pawns?
On the other hand, the media would probably spin it in such a way that it would seem like a success.
21
This one of those posts that is of very real importance to everyone. IMO
It is very significant because as in 1974 we who lived in the UK experienced what it was like when the government put everyone on a 3 day week ( no electricity)
What happened next was only a tiny part of what Tony is describing here.
The GDP of the UK dropped by 2.4% for the next quarter as a direct result of this directive. The 2008 financial disaster saw GDP drop by 2.1% for one quarter in comparison.
I personally would like to see the Greens have their day.
Perhaps then people in general would realise to what degree of insanity these people operate.
21
A message for 2016.
The only meaningful way to think about weather is to use fractal geometry. To understand fractal geometry we first need to understand what fractals are. We can define fractals as dynamic objects with dimensions that have high levels of irregularity on different physical levels or time scales. These are the scales that mirror the patterns of irregularity up and down through the systems’ structural levels or scales.
How fractal an object or system is, is measured by how fast the measurement of an object increases as the measurement device becomes smaller. So if you measure the coastline of Australia with a kilometer long measure the coastline will be shorter than if you measure it with a meter long measure because, using a meter ruler, all the nooks and crannies get measured as well. Therefore the coastline of Australia is fractal. The weather is also fractal. A volatile weather event with higher peeks and troughs measures longer than a range bound weather event where there is not much action. Therefore weather cycles are an ideal application for the mathematics of fractal engineering.
Complex numbers are central to the formulation of quantum mechanics as well as being ideal for the description of oscillating systems like cyclical weather systems. The fractal structure of weather movements is immensely complicated. Any graphical representation of weather data will show that there are shapes in small parts of the graph that mimic the shapes in the larger part of the graph. So for example you might get a weather event that lasts for say a week looking like a scaled down version of a weather event that might be over a thousand years long in the entire chart you see before you. This is what we call fractal scaling.
There are wide classes of different systems that all have their smaller parts looking like the whole. These systems that apply to the diverse dynamics of simply everything including for example music, the way infectious diseases spread, the way forest fires spread and the way magnetic polarity behaves………… in fact simply everything you can think of including even financial markets.
The more you zoom into these iterations in charts, if charts measuring weather were available that is, the more intricate they become and it will be seen that the smaller parts are similar in design to the larger scales of components.
However that which seems random in nature is actually orderly although extremely complex.
There is another amazing aspect to fractal geometrical structure that makes prediction possible. That is symmetry, where patterns of data repeat themselves in an orderly but immensely complicated patterns over time! However you need a lot of data over a very long time to be able to do this! It is impossible however to use the small pattern shapes over say 100 years or less to predict any other periods in the future.
You cannot use the small fractal scales to predict in the direction to up scale or longer periods. You can only predict down from the very large to the very small when looking into the future.
This means that a weather period like the last 100 years is not causal in any way in its effects on the bigger picture or longer weather periods. This last hundred years is thus merely a facet or tiny part or result of what has been occurring in the planets weather over the past millions of years.
It is therefore a gigantic leap into error for any so called climate scientist to postulate that what has occurred in the last hundred years or so can have any effect on the upper fractal scales of the planet’s weather.
The Earth’s weather systems will carry on over the next millions of years in the same way they have cycled in the millions of years up until now. Mankind can have no effect on this and mankind has nothing to do with it!
A happy and prosperous New Year To Jo and everyone from Robert R
152
‘So for example you might get a weather event that lasts for say a week looking like a scaled down version of a weather event that might be over a thousand years long in the entire chart you see before you. This is what we call fractal scaling.’
The hiatus resembles the Holocene, a gradual sloping plateau.
40
El Gordo, this is possibly the case but meaningful actual fractal analysis comparing the fractal shape of the recent hiatus and the entire Holocene would be very difficult because of the lack of proper reasonably accurate data for temperature at least. An excellent download pdf from SCMSA in Paris at this link explains why meaningful temperature data does not exist (even though many claim it does).
http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/SCM_RC_2015_08_24_EN.pdf
All dynamics are fractals including currency pairs like the EURUSD pair. Unlike the climate temperature fractal where there is no accurate data over meaningful time frames available, the historical forex price data available for the Euro since its inception is accurate enough to allow scaled fractal analysis comparisons.
70
Why does the noaa sea level chart for Fort Denison cut out at 2010? Where is the data for the time since 2010 and what does it say?
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_global_station.shtml?stnid=680-140
30
For 2016, I confidently predict the following. (Since the science is settled.)
1. It will be hot somewhere
2. Somewhere else, it will be cold
3. Some places will get some rain
4. Except those that don’t
5. We will all pay through the nose.
6. Except for those on the Global Warming Gravy Train, who will have their hands in your wallet.
113
Happy New Year
Prediction
El Nino will cool to La Nina conditions by year end, dragging global (satellite) temperatures lower. The New York Times will not report the good news that catastrophic disaster has been delayed.
42
My dad once saw a 0C on the news and said “but there is no temperature! Nothing al all!” (in a dusky Swedish accent)
50
Happy New Year! Hope all y’all down South have a healthy and prosperous 2016!
30
Best Wishes to all for 2016.
I predict Arctic Sea Ice will continue to build extent over the 2007 bottom.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/01/01/happy-arctic-ice-year/
32
Happy New Year to everyone!
Jo here’s a link for you…. to Erl Happ’s new blog https://reality348.wordpress.com/ .
10
2016 will be the year when Physics Departments of most major universities throughout the English/German/French speaking world will be notified by our group regarding the false physics in the Greenhouse Radiative Forcing conjecture.
Whilst the mean ocean surface temperature is indeed due to solar heating, it is important to understand that the “solar heating” is not achieved by way of direct solar radiation reaching the ocean surface and (mostly) passing through the first meter or so. Stefan-Boltzmann calculations readily confirm this.
Instead, the ocean surface receives the required thermal energy by means of the non-radiative “heat creep” process that I have been first in the world to explain based on the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
The science of heat transfer lies totally within the realm of physics, and so only those with a sound knowledge and understanding of entropy and thermodynamics will understand what I have explained at http://climate-change-theory.com
In summary, the old 20th century Greenhouse Radiative Forcing conjecture cannot explain the required thermal energy transfers and the reason why a planet’s surface temperature rises each planetary morning. The process of entropy maximization is totally ignored and there is a false assumption that separate sources of radiation (the atmosphere and the Sun) have a compounding effect so that (they think) the sum of the fluxes can be used in Stefan-Boltzmann calculations. That is wrong, but it is indeed what those energy budget diagrams imply. If it were correct and one electric bar radiator could raise an object to 350K, then 16 such radiators would raise it to 700K. That doesn’t happen, so the greenhouse conjecture is totally and utterly debunked.
The correct 21st century “heat creep” hypothesis is, instead, based on the laws of physics and it explains the morning warming for planets like Earth and Venus, as well as the observed temperatures. You cannot prove it wrong. Nobody has in nearly two years, despite the AU $10,000 reward on offer for doing so.
23
Ahh! Doug Cotton;
The smelly cotton sock puppet is again peddling his fantasy wares under yet another pseudonym Go away!!!
10
Ocean Acidification: some so called marine scientists are quite mad ….
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/qed/2016/01/fishy-science-ocean-acidification/
00
Don’t miss this link on that page.
http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-sues-for-documents-withheld-from-congress-in-new-climate-data-scandal/
00
Hi Jo, You want predictions, I am an old codger and have seen weather cycles over decades, I was up the pointy end of Boeings for a long time so weather mattered.
The next ten years with a waning sun will see the demise of the global warming scam, they will cover theirs arses and pretend it never happened.
Their will be a limited third world war it will be messy with no real front lines.
Science will come to terms with an entire new force, that has been somewhat hidden that explains the missing part of the universe, and can give us unlimited energy, big bun fight.
Happy new year to all. This is our coming decade.
32
43 comments and a ~equal number of subcomments and I don’t see a single quantitative prediction in any, and precious few qualitative ones. Weak.
2015 warmer than 2015 by ~0.12 °C, 98-99% probability hottest on instrumental record
2016 0.02 +/- 0.01 °C warmer than 2015
2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent between 2015 and 2012 values, second lowest on record, ~4.0 million km^2
Mean thickness and proportion of multiyear Arctic sea ice continues to decline
22
Thanks Magma,
If you are wrong will you visit this time next year and admit it, or is it not “that kind” of prediction (ie, one you are serious about)?
You may well be right about the surface record. Any reason you won’t bet on the far superior and more comprehensive satellite record that’s harder to “adjust”?
42
Joanne Nova.
The satellite temperature measurements are not “superior” to the surface measurements. That is a myth. [Satellites record day and night continuously over land and ocean. There are two different competing independent analytical teams at all times. They are self evidently superior to surface measurements 55% of which are at airports near km2 of tarmac. Most of the rest are stuck next to airconditioners and car parks. See the photos. ;- ) — Jo]
The satellite measurements are adjusted a lot. [Adjusted more than surface data? Now that would be a myth…..]
The satellite do not measure temperature, they measure a proxy for temperature.
[So what, thermometers measure a proxy for energy. – ED]
[One might consider satellite sensing is superior for several reasons but foremost they are able to sense vast areas that have no thermometers. Harry, will you not admit that the reasons you dislike satellite sensing is that the results often conflict with your personal bias and faith driven support for warming?] ED
[Adjusted anthropogenic measurement, good. Unadjustable automated measurement, bad.] Fly
11
I don’t run away from anything I put on-line.
The microwave-emission-derived satellite estimates of atmospheric temperature are not sufficiently accurate or precise to use for short-term analysis or any but crude-long term analysis. The multiple and inconsistent adjustments, recalibrations and leveling changes over the years show that clearly enough.
Maybe better analyses could be salvaged from the satellite data record by newer and/or larger teams reviewing basic principles and developing improved calibration methods and better algorithms. For-profit company RSS’s part-time focus on this (tropospheric temperature estimates don’t pay its bills) and UAH’s spaghetti code and shoddy approach won’t cut it.
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“spaghetti code and shoddy approach won’t cut it”
And somehow you think the much mangled, fabricated and very sparse and wantonly smeared data from GISS et al will ?
ROFLMAO !! You truly are DELUSIONAL. !
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One of the best ways to check data algorithms is against REALITY, often done on a sample basis.
The ONLY pristine, evenly spaced, untainted surface data in the world is USCRN.
ClimDiv adds in other data like radiosonde balloons etc
Over this sample area, the trend in UAH is an almost exact match for the trend in USCRN (basically zero warming since 2005)
And RSS trend over the USA is almost an exact match to ClimDiv (slight cooling trend)
This sample comparison VALIDATES the temperature data extraction of the satellite data sets. End of story.
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“I don’t run away from anything I put on-line.”
Sure, that’s why you won’t use a name connected to your personal life or career.
The adjustments to satellites are consistent across their entire record. The adjustments to thermometers are contradictory, arbitrary, seemingly random, and cannot be replicated. Even the BOM admits no one outside the BOM can get enough information to replicate their work and they will not give it to them.
If it can’t be replicated, it isn’t science.
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Joanne Nova.
“If it can’t be replicated, it isn’t science.”
We have been thru this before, the BOMs results can be replicated. They give details. I found them in 30 minutes. Others, such as NOAA, also detail various homogenisation methods. You just claim that they can’t which only shows your understanding is deficient in some way.
Now, if you were going to be properly scientific instead of just criticising things you do not understand, you would take the raw data (AWAP perhaps) and apply the BOM homogenisation process as described by the BOM. If the results are dramatically different, then that would be a basis for discussion.
So, put up or shut up, as they say. Accusing a scientific body of professional misconduct or incompetence without showing evidence is pretty shabby.
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“So, put up or shut up”
Already done. June 18th 2015 — my post quoting the BOM’s exact words where they admit they won’t provide all the details.
You commented on that thread, so either you already knew I was right, or (more likely) you are honest but in denial, and you’ve scrubbed the facts you can’t handle from your memory. Your call.
On the BOM’s replication, the ball’s been in your court for six months. You still have no answer. Right now you owe me an apology.
PS: We have compared ACORN to raw data already. See 60 posts on Australian temperatures. Do you read this site or just do you just dump your religious advertising and run?
“Shabby” looks like an anonymous commenter who writes flagrant accusations but can never back them up.
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Magma, You say no one made any real predictions, I will make another right now, That your faith in AGW will fade quietly over time as you will have no choice, if it does not fade, your take on real science will be of a religious nature. Happy new year.
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But satellites do consistently cover the earth’s surface, which the land station network does not, and never can, do.
And we are only talking about a year-on-year comparison. You make a prediction on January 3 2016, and we will be able to compare the homogenised instrumental record from that date, against the homogenised instrumental record from the same day in 2017.
We can also do the same comparision for the satellite data, year on year, and so get an indication of the stability of both sources of data.
They both sound like useful experiments to me.
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A Happy, Prosperous and Uneventful New Year to all!
(Especially the Uneventful as in no WWIII)
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