As lockdown restrictions are released, and social distancing is blown away by riots and rallies, the virus is coming back in some parts.
Victoria gets 25 new cases, cancels “reboot” and ramps up restrictions again
Two weeks after restrictions were partially released and the BLM rallies took place in Melbourne, the surge comes. Actual spread at the BLM rallies is hard to pin down but the rank hypocrisy that allowed the rallies to take place skewered the community commitment to social distancing. With thousands congregating, almost entirely without fines and in breach of the rules, no wonder family gatherings grew. People had given up so much during the lockdown, but indulgent rally organizers could not delay the rallies by another month, or shift them to an online form.
Among a new string of coronavirus cases in Victoria are people who knew they were infected but continued to work and socialise anyway, Premier Daniel Andrews has revealed. The state will reintroduce restrictions after recording another 25 new coronavirus cases in the past day, with concerns that a second wave of COVID-19 is possible.
Blaming families seems a bit rich given the flagrant disregard shown by protestors and the politicians, academics and journalists that enabled them.
Victorian Covid19 infections | Click to enlarge From Wikipedia
The outbreak in Victoria doesn’t look like much of a second wave compared to the first one. Indeed, it doesn’t look much different to the bump on May 5th. But the big difference is that the May 5 bump was largely due to the meatworks cluster, and a couple of others. This latest jump in numbers is more sinister because it is more widely spread and much harder to contact trace.
Other states in Australia may have dodged a bullet if the rallies came after community spread was near zero. Some states appear to be free to rally away.
Readers outside Australia may marvel that 25 new cases qualifies as a problem, but here is a big distance between some community spread and none at all, with 97% of normal life, travel, business and socialization beckoning, as opposed to 20 person limits at restaurants and bars. This will be heartbreaking for some businesses.
By acting fast, hopefully Victoria can join the rest of the country again soon.
Second wave in Florida
Two weeks after reopening the state the numbers are up dramatically. Though testing has doubled since May, so that explains some of the rise, but test-rate positivity has risen too. One expert cites a general fatigue with social distancing and the lack of masks., but there were BLM rallies in Florida too likely skewering the mood for social distancing. Not many people seem to be mentioning that.
Tourists are also arriving. The Republican Governor, who was trumpeting their success a few weeks ago, claims the numbers are up due to extra tests and cluster outbreaks in places like prisons and farms (one watermelon farm has 90 positive tests out of 100). But with 4,000 new cases a day, that’s a lot of clusters.
Richard Luscome, The Guardian
The rise in Florida’s figures, with close to 90,000 cases and deaths surpassing 3,000, comes as the majority of its 67 counties reach the end of the second week of DeSantis’s “safe, smart, step-by-step” reopening plan.
“… experts at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia and University of Pennsylvania to conclude that Florida has “all the markings of the next large epicenter of coronavirus transmission”. “
Fortunately, deaths are not rising as quickly at the moment, because the cases are younger.
Florida on the second wave Worldometer USA
As for “more testing” — the rise in the rate of positive tests is very consistent. And the timing doesn’t fit.
Clearly, this is not just an increase in tests.
Tests in Florida rose in June, but the rate of testing positive is consistently higher. Rate of positive tests John Hokins Uni
Molly Olmstead, Slate
Cindy Prins, [an associate professor of epidemiology at the University of Florida] noted that, anecdotally, a lot of Floridians appear to have given up on wearing masks.
Public health experts are familiar with the phenomenon she is describing: caution fatigue. One of the main reasons experts think Florida avoided a catastrophic epidemic in the first place is because its public began staying home before it was ordered to do so. But now, mentally exhausted after three months of stress, even residents in the hardest-hit parts of the country have grown complacent.
Second wave in Israel
Israel, second wave.
Israel has gone from 16 cases a day four weeks ago to 250 cases a day now. Hospital wings are reopening. Israeli stocks are falling.
Israel enters second wave, Health Ministry orders corona wings reopened immediately
By David Isaac, World Israel News
“Israel is entering a second wave of the coronavirus illness and we have to take immediate and urgent steps connected to enforcement and to stopping the loosening [of regulations] in order to prevent the need for another lockdown a month from now,” according to an official statement released Saturday evening by Israel’s National Center for Information and Knowledge in the Battle Against the Coronavirus.
Rina Bassist Jun 2, 2020
Thousands of students in the towns of Jerusalem, Hadera and Beersheba on June 1 were sent home to isolate after teachers in their schools were diagnosed with the coronavirus. Education Minister Yoav Galant said any school found with active cases of the virus must immediately close down.
Israel’s health authorities are expressing concern in recent days over a surge in coronavirus infections all across the country, especially in schools and preschools. According to recent data, some 5,000 students, teachers and staff are now isolating at home.
REFERENCES
Rate of positive tests John Hokins Uni
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews cannot possibly have evidence that ‘family gatherings’ have caused this spike in new cases. Two weeks ago he tacitly allowed 30,000 protesters to march in Melbourne by saying there would be no fines for protesters.
The protesters turned out in droves and marched shoulder to shoulder. Andrews is playing politics when he doesn’t mention the protesters but blames family gatherings as the reason for the spike in new cases.
The protesters aren’t a separate demographic to the family gatherings. In today’s Oz, Johannes Leak has a great take on it with his cartoon.
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Its also a good example of what the Andrews regime stands for, small business middle classes are to be destroyed, useful idiots following a Marxist agenda are to be celebrated, the majority of Victorians that scoff at faux protests should stop laughing and start marching themselves as their cause has an actual problem that won’t just hurt their feelings but destroy everything they and their forebears worked, fought, lived and died for.
WAKE UP VICTORIA, WAKE UP AUSTRALIA!
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Well said, Yonniestone!
Andrews’ blaming of families is just another step in the socialist plan to elevate the government above the family.
Andrews has already attempted this with his Safe Schools* program which the author Roz Ward admitted was not really about bullying but about gender and sexual diversity.
*Andrews sends his kids to a Catholic school.
Andrews’ handling of the Covid19 pandemic was rightly authoritarian in April when he told us to keep our distance and stay at home. He went off-reservation when he instructed police to fine solo fishermen, golfers, and anybody sitting on a park bench, including a homeless woman with nowhere to go.
It will be both interesting and galling to see how Commissar Andrews handles this second stage of lockdown.
And all I can think of is those 30,000 people marching shoulder to shoulder two weeks ago.
Thanks a lot!
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Yonnie, we instantaneously or thereabouts both scored a red thumb! We must be doing something right.
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GD, ‘Hi, Ho, Ho !’
I think you’ve just shot down your own argument by accident :
Daniel Andrews, the Catholic ‘Commissar” of Victoria !
Tell that to Lenin, Stalin & Mao.
They wii fall on the floor laughing.
430
Bill, you missed my point. Andrews is foisting a socialist ideology on to Victorian citizens but at the same time protecting his kids from that same ideology.
Can’t you see the hypocrisy?
402
Andrews kids have been going to Catholic schools for years.
And by the way, that’s called Parental Freedom
To choose which school we send our kids to.
You are politicising that fundamental right.
That’s nuts.
Andrews is either a Catholic or he’s ‘Communist Komissar’.
He can’t be both GD.
Or can’t you see the difference
Between Communism and Catholicism ?
Looks like your own ideology needs rethinking.
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Why are you defending a state premier who legislates a morally destructive education policy for state schools and then sends his kids to the only school that is sheltered from that policy?
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Irrelevant to the major issue at hand.
But some folk will agree with you..
Ideology rules..
ho hum….
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CINO !
40
You don’t have to be a Catholic to send your kids to a Catholic school.
40
The list of Catholics who publicly betray the moral teaching of the Church is endless. ( not to deny that we are all sinners, to a greater or lesser extent) Just look at the USA, where noted Catholic figures in Congress and the Senate openly disavow the moral law on contraception and abortion. You can be both, as far as the world sees the situation. Christ Himself pointed out the hypocrisy of the religous leaders of His day. Perhaps needless to say the people who adhere to this duplicity are actually automatically excommunicated but in the general degradation of Church discipline where will we find a pastor (bishop) to publicly rebuke these offenders as their duty (as pastors) compells them to do so? As in the days of Sodom and Gomorrah, where will we find ten just men?
I fully realize that to many what I have written above is laughable. Observed Religion is at an historic low point, nevertheless the moral law is still binding. God still is ultimately in control, but when mankind believes that it can carry on without Him and fall away from obeying His laws He tends to let them do so, to learn by experiencing Godlessness. Look at CHOD/CHAZ in Seattle. The poet, Gerard Manley Hopkins had a handle on this.
God’s Grandeur
The world is charged with the grandeur of God.
It will flame out, like shining from shook foil;
It gathers to a greatness, like the ooze of oil
Crushed. Why do men then now not reck his rod?
Generations have trod, have trod, have trod;
And all is seared with trade; bleared, smeared with toil;
And wears man’s smudge |&| shares man’s smell: the soil
Is bare now, nor can foot feel, being shod.
And for all this, nature is never spent;
There lives the dearest freshness deep down things;
And though the last lights off the black West went
Oh, morning, at the brown brink eastward, springs —
Because the Holy Ghost over the bent
World broods with warm breast |&| with ah! bright wings.
Gerard Manley Hopkins
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Missed the Ball Park
10
Tell that to Xi and the Pope
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/22/world/asia/china-vatican-bishops.html
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It took 71 years to get to this stage.
But Mao or Lenin or Marx would never have recognised
Xi as a ” communist”.
He’s just an old style Fascist dictator with Chinese characteristics
🙂
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Hi Bill. For once I agree with you. Basically, you’re saying that both types of totalitarian dictatorships – communist or fascist – are anti-humanitarian, anti-libertarian and essentially identical. I agree with you. A gulag is much the same as a concentration camp.
That is why free speech, the rule of law and the rights of the individual are so important. Funny enough, these can be traced to Christianity, maybe Chairman Dan sends his kids to a Catholic school because wants his kids to be a better human being than he is?
Cheers,
Speedy.
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How Andrews will handle this second stage?
Andrews will need a lot of luck to keep his head. The rage was building after the demonstration. The branch stacking scandal would normally see him sacked. But the losses inflated on business last weekend must build a rage that tips the bucket.
Add to all that the Belt and Road business, and the populace should at last find an interest in how deeply we are in hock to China. But don’t blame China for taking advantage of our own stupidity/ignorance.
Dan Andrews should be gone this week.
40
Never forget to disable your autocorrect. Inflated = inflicted.
10
“The protesters aren’t a separate demographic to the family gatherings”
Ummmm ?
How do we know that GD ?
( Your link to the Oz article is paywalled )
But we do know this :
The protesters were youngish, tertiary educated folk from Melbourne’s ‘Caffe Late” inner suburbs.
The family clusters identified by Vic Health are all in outer suburbs of Melbourne
Where no self respecting BLM person would ever live.
My suspicion is that these family clusters
Are all in areas with high migrant populations
With low levels of good English language skills.
But Danny will not tell us as their ‘privacy’
Is more important that Victoria’s public health.
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Yes, many of them were, but not all. Neither you nor I know the statistics at this stage.
So by your reckoning, 30,000 people in close proximity, no matter where they came from, presented no risk, yet a family barbeque of ten people is the cause of the spike in new cases.
Bill, I think we’re fighting from the same side. I agree with you about the ethnic communities. My point is how many of those ethnic individuals were present at the BLM protests.
How many took the virus home?
It’s not about the family having a get-together, it’s about where the family members have been in the last two weeks.
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Apaprently only right wing people get infected and need to be locked up.
They let the feral left roam about doing what it likes.
Its called hypocracy, and Andrews needs to be called out on it.
By the way, did the last protester batch try and topple any statues? Kind of like hard left cow tipping, but with communist ovetones….
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Older readers only: (with apologies to Tom Lehrer)
First you get down on your knees,
Fiddle with your restrictions,
bow your head to the lead man
And genuflect to the great Dan
Protest all you want if
It’s cleared by the goniff
Everybody using the same reason
Doing the latest Rage.
Get in line in that procession,
shouting the latest obsession,
there the guy who’s medical
will tell you if it is terminal.
If only you’d played it safer
you wouldn’t need to suffer
And have the awful wait.
Two, four, six, eight
Time to self eliminate.
50
Blaming families, when Andrew’s own government send the known sick home to isolate WITH THEIR FAMILIES. How much hypocrisy can a person stand, the government rules causes family group infection.
This is why FROM the BEGINNING I have been calling for the sick to be isolated AWAY FROM OTHERS in an isolated, warm place, whether it be an infection diseases ward or the Hamilton island resort.
One of the problems with the Florida response is that they are driving people to hide indoors in shared airspace when it’s safer to be outdoors in the sunshine with all that sterilising vitamin D producing UV.
240
G’day BobL. Do you reckon that the state where the law has been applied in such a draconian manner is now the place where it is all falling apart? By being so badge-heavy (fining kids getting driving lessons from their Mum, fishermen, golfers etc), the government has made people so sick of the lockdown that they’re itching to get out. And when they see a few thousand idiots on the street undoing all the social discipline that they have worked on, what else do you expect? The community has given Chairman Dan the bird, but probably at the very time when they can least afford to…
Cheers,
Speedy
150
Yes, I reckon
30
‘Badge-heavy’
Highly pertinent term! Can I borrow it?
20
Also, a classic “look over here” strategy from Daniel Andrews. All last week the faction brawling within the Labor Party was headline news in Victoria. It actually pushed COVID out of the MSM news cycle for a couple of days. He and his advisors are using this slight “spike” in + cases as a way to dilute that story. In fact, there has been no further updates on the faction brawling story at all over the weekend. What we need is a lot more analysis of those + cases. What type of families? Was the testing bunched up or delayed? Is it simply an aberration of increased testing and peoples better willingness to be tested. If in fact these increased + cases are among migrant families why isn’t this also being observed in other cities in both Victoria and other states. I remain very suspicious.
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Yes we need such information.
But such details will not be released.
It would be a breach of ‘privacy”.
Nuts !
16
This is where we need information.
Like, answers to the questions:
Why was the material leaked? Who recorded it? Under whose instructions? What was the objective?
00
very suspicious indeed. All people from overseas returning are screened and quarantined so one would think that obviates family reunions as a cause for the spike. Victoria has been in strct lockdown for some period and this is the price one pays.No gain for deprivation of liberty. I would think that the Victorian Communist Party knew what would happen if these clowns went ahead with their demonstrations. Sinister.
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Victorians need to make sure he is held to account for the deaths that come from the BLM protests spreading the virus. Reprehensible political pandering putting lives at risk.
100
BLM, Dan Andrews and the Labor Party have blood and bankruptcies on their hands.
81
Covid is now a political club to be weilded by Communist states against thier people…..
It seems the two states with the heaviest restrictions ( and cases ) are hard Left.
Coincidence?
I mean, if you want to keep a group of people in lock down, jsut keep creating real or imagined “cases”…bingo…Gulag Victoriastan….
Andrews needs to be removed by the State Governor.
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Bankruptcies are their business, their modus operandi. Now we have it from their own mouths. “We are trained Marxists”, say the leaders of the organisation that the Andrews government aided and abetted with their “rallies”.
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Common sense uttered here.
https://twitter.com/TONYxTWO/status/1275051388431667200
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Jo, you forgot to mention New Zealand – remember how you championed our Prime Minister. Well the same incompetence which let the CV into NZ in the first place is still letting it through the boarder. How could we go all those days without any cases, then Boom, we have seven. Simply, there was little testing going on.
And our severe lockdown seems to have achieved only one thing – a completely broken economy. Actually, a second achievement – an angry and disillusioned populous who won’t tolerate a second lockdown.
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Looking at the chart it’s clear that Victoria came close to eliminating the virus.
But then it belly flopped.
The virus is present in Victoria and being transmitted locally.
And the Andrews government’s policy of preserving these families ‘privacy’ is helping this virus develop into a second ave.
We all know that one simple way to deter such big family gatherings is “NAME & SHAME” .
It’s the power that comes from being shamed & embarassed.
Which comes first ?
Public health or individual privacy ?
In my mind it is clear that Public health is FAR MORE important.
But there are idiots in this labor government with a vastly different ideology.
And Victorians are entitled to ask ‘why’ and demand change.
713
There is no “eliminating the virus”.
We haven’t even eliminated the flu or the common cold, what makes you think we can eliminate this one?
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There is no “eliminating the virus”.
We haven’t even eliminated the flu or the common cold, what makes you think we can eliminate this one?
62
Truely a double headed cynic squawking with no evidence.
:-)!
SA has now gone 26 days with no new infections.
Northern Territory is around 34 days of zeros.
ACT ditto.
Tasmania ditto.
Qld & NSW are finally getting a handle on this infectious disease.
But not Victoria yet..
The government there needs a lot more naming & shaming
312
The difference between control and elimination.
Around the mid 1980’s feral goats finally got recognition as a rangelands problem and there was an Oz-wide conference. One speaker was from NZ Environment who had experience of NZ programs to eliminate introduced species from some of the off-shore islands.
Hi take-home message was that eliminating the last 1% took as long and cost as much as the previous 99%.
The purveyors of cures would like that methinks.
91
Bill, it’s never eliminated – governments can’t clear the whole world of it. The flu dies out from particular areas every year, it isn’t eliminated.
Do you seriously believe MERS and SARS have been eliminated? Well SARS has been contained and no new cases for a long time, but MERS still crops up. And those 2 weren’t even seriously infectious. CV19 won’t be contained until HIT is reached or some other natural mechanism causes it to abate.
All your lockdowns, all your social distancing, it’s futile, you are just delaying the inevitable, compounding the damage. Have you forgotten the rationale for the lockdowns, it was never about eliminating the virus, it was to prevent ICUs being overloaded, and a few people more than necessary dying. Keeping the virus out, or beating it out, of a discrete area, that is not elimination.
CV19 is probably with us for the long haul, like flu, always in the background, cropping up seasonally or every now and then, constantly changing.
What is utterly ridiculous is that there have been several more dangerous/fatal trains of flu – and we never tanked the economy for those. And we must not now let governments or activists believe that this is now a legitimate strategy every time we are threatened with a bad flu strain, the modern world and civilisation won’t survive the economic damage.
81
“It was to prevent ICUs being overloaded ”
And they weren’t.
50
And still aren’t.
This madness has got to stop. I am a sitting duck, but it is not right that industry should be shut down to protect me. If I feel threatened I can take cover. Indeed there might be a whole new industry to create to help us take cover.
Sooner or later this disease will have to be tackled head on. There is no putting it back in the bottle, we can’t isolate for ever.
20
I reckon we can, thanks to zinc, hcq and vitamin C. See my reply at 11.3.
Cheers
Dave B
130
Jo, I read the section about Florida with interest.
It’s clear that Florida had not gt rid of the virus
And that it was still being transmitted there
When they eased their lock down to ‘save the economy’.
But now Florida has a new solution :
They ‘should’ with Trump’s ‘blessing’
Stop testing people for the disease in Florida.
Then the numbers ( detected ) as infected will go down.
What joy for Florida !
Problem solved !
Sarc/
614
Chiefio’s take on the Trump rally.
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/06/20/rsbn-trump-rally-tulsa-oklahoma/
In particular WRT Bill’s quote
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/06/20/rsbn-trump-rally-tulsa-oklahoma/#comment-130792
And “HR” following that
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/06/20/rsbn-trump-rally-tulsa-oklahoma/#comment-130793
21
Bill, in crowded high rise places like Florida, New York, Queens and a lot of the North East and with a leaky land border to the south it’s just not reasonable for the USA to try for eradication. They lopped the top off the curve and unlike us are staying the game on the aim of keeping hospitalisations below capacity. Just like stupid Australian governments though. The mild cases are being sent home to infect the family and neighbours rather than being isolated.
So it’s clear that what Florida is trying to do is balance economic activity against hospital capacity. To some extend that is a sensible approach if the epidemic is long.
Unfortunately while summer has dented the epidemic it doesn’t look like it’ll kill it off like SARS V1, so it looks like China has let loose a rather successful bioweapon, intended or not.
142
I am not certain that US has lopped the top off its curve. Recent numbers indicate the top is yet to come:
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=United%20States&show=25&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries
The recent daily totals are just below the daily peak. It is not yet as bad as it was because there is more testing but it will not surprise me to see the daily cases go well above the last peak.
The daily cases are now close to the peak. Given the increasing numbers are outside the densely populated locations on the east coast around New York, it is likely that the virus will spread to more vulnerable hosts in these new locations. That could result in the death rate climbing again.
50
Bill, Governor deSantis was honest with the state early on.
He protected nursing homes and told us old farts to stay home.
He explained that flattening the curve did not mean there would not be cases, and that we were
protecting the hospital system. He explained that the hit we would take from losing tourism was
so bad that we’d try to keep some local economy going.
And, perhaps most important, he pointed out the vast differences between Florida counties
and explained that most restrictions would be in coordination with county authorities, and they have.
Let me be very clear that I am not disputing the “Florida” statistics. But locally we have more granularity
measuring cases as related to behavior and levels of shutdown in various parts of the state are quite different.
I think this is more true of Florida than any other state. Miami and the East coast may have to quiet down again,
and possibly Tampa and St Pete as our counts are up about 20%. Most of the rest of the state not so much.
We have a huge tourism that begins in September. I suspect the half that is to single family homes, cabins, and cottages
in the more rural parts of the state will be allowed; the high rise condos in Miami and motels in Orlando….not sure.
We still have common sense which is a hell of a lot better than a self aggrandizing press conference and a love fest with one’s CNN
commentator brother every day.,
90
That is actually true Bill.
The more you test, the more positives you’ll find.
If you abandon testing completely, there’ll be no more positives recorded.
Just shows the terrible quality of the statistics we’re working with when it is based on such terrible data.
72
The infectious disease experts say TEST, TEST, TEST !
Then trace all contacts
And isolate all the positives and their contacts.
You, though lacking any professional qualifications or experience,
Want testing abandoned ?
Ummmm ? And then no one has any idea of who is infected
Or who will get sick.
Frankly that is arrogant bloody minded nonsense.
38
Bill ‘N OZ
01
Yes he.
Knows.
01
No testing will eliminate the virus? Stop with the TDS
31
Israel is the third example of a second wave of Corona Virus infections.
I went & read this article on the Jerusalem Post :
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/can-netanyahu-halt-a-second-covid-19-tsunami-632309
It’s pretty clear what happened in Israel :
1 ; After the recent national elections the government is divided
And does not have a coherent strategy for getting rid of the virus.
Netanyahu wants to save the economy – Trump style.
So that is what has happened despite medical & epidemiological advice.
2: But the virus was still being transmitted locally in low numbers especially in Jerusalem,
So once the Israeli lockdown was eased to save the economy,
It began spreading again like a bush fire with lots of fuel to burn.
Conclusion : Israel is a basket case.
215
One should not talk about Israel without looking at hat is happening in Palestine.
The two nations may be separated by the big wall
But many Palestinians still work in Israel – especially in Jerusalem.
Not much testing has been done in Palestine’s West Bank. because of lack of finances.
So the statistics are not reliable.
But it just so happens that Palestine is going through a big second wave as well.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/state-of-palestine/
That is interesting and probably a clue to what is happening.
The virus can’t be brought under control without both nations cooperating a lot.
And that simply will not happen for political reasons.
912
If facemasks work, why do businesses need to be closed?
If facemasks don’t work, why are we forced to wear them?
Dr. Fauci Made the Coronavirus Pandemic Worse by Lying About Masks
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2020/06/dr-fauci-made-the-coronavirus-pandemic-worse-by-lying-about-masks/
>> Why lie?
Fauci Confirms Public-Health Experts Downplayed Efficacy of Masks to Ensure They Would Be Available to Health-care Workers
https://www.nationalreview.com/news/fauci-confirms-public-health-experts-downplayed-efficacy-of-masks-to-ensure-they-would-be-available-to-healthcare-workers/
Dr. Fauci Admits That Public Health Experts Initially ‘Downplayed’ Face Masks Over Concerns About Supply
https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-fauci-admits-that-public-health-experts-initially-downplayed-face-masks-over-concerns-about-supply
>> WHO announced in April that facemasks were ineffective:
Face masks DO NOT stop healthy people from catching coronavirus and should only be worn by healthcare workers and patients, says WHO
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8199959/Face-masks-NOT-stop-healthy-people-catching-coronavirus-says.html
In Oz …
Feb 2020: No need for face masks says Australia’s chief medical officer, as Victoria braces for pandemic
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/no-need-for-face-masks-business-as-usual-says-australia-s-chief-medical-officer-20200223-p543gf.html
June 8, 2020: Face masks, physical distancing drastically reduce coronavirus risk
“If you’ve got to get on a bus or a train, a face mask will be protective.”
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/healthreport/coronavirus-face-masks-physical-distancing-reduce-risk/12326902
June 18, 2020: Anthony Fauci: Widespread lockdowns no longer needed in U.S.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/18/anthony-fauci-widespread-lockdowns-no-longer-neede/
>> You can be excused for pondering what else is a lie.
230
Travis here in Oz, – except for Victoria,
Hardly any of us are wearing masks.
But in Victoria at the protests two weeks ago
Almost everyone attending wore masks.
And used sanitiser abundantly.
And so far only three persons at the Melbourne protest
Have been tested and found positive.
(None elsewhere in Australia -Whew ! )
Maybe they knew something the rest of us didn’t ?
215
Bill. only three people have admitted to being at the protests.
How many more were infected out of 30,000 that won’t admit they were at the protests?
190
My guess is about 90% won’t admit attendance for fear of reprisals, like manslaughter charges if they are linked to any deaths. If 3 have admitted my guess is over 30 wont (statistically).
111
Hi Bill.
I’m here in Oz, on the GC!
Fair enough they needed ppe for front line health workers, but, on what faulty data was the decision to lie made?
They obviously lied in Oz as well.
On failed models that prediction 2m deaths in USA, and 100,000 + deaths in Oz?
Seems we weren’t all in this together.
Some of us needed to be protected from the truth, though the people who made this decision suffer from doomsday global warming mental issues.
Covid-19 Model Failures Illustrate Climate Model Shortcomings
http://climaterealism.com/2020/04/covid-19-model-failures-illustrate-climate-model-shortcomings/
110
I followed the link and found this statement:
The down adjustment to 60K was clearly wrong as well because the number is now more than double that. The US has not yet seen its peak in cases.
There is nothing wrong with the models. The input data with the human population is constantly changing. The rate of spread is very much a function of human activity. The modellers who predicted the 60k deaths in the US arrived at that based on the data available some months back. They did not have any way of knowing that a black man would be suffocated to death by a cop resulting in country wide BLM marches. Current IHME prediction for the USA is 201k by October 1st. The previous predictions were to August 1st.
COVID 19 has a LOOOONG way to run in the USA. The 2M figure could very well end up being closer to the actual. The current projection no longer tapers to zero. It is continuing to rise past October 1st:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
With the elections coming up and the contenders vying for votes, you can bet there will be the big rallies. The incumbent and contender will want to perform in front of big crowds. I suspect the two old men will inevitably contract CV19 and they have to be vulnerable.
55
Face masks are surely beneficial. But there is a huge variability in effectiveness. Yesterday I was sent for a test. Twice I was given a mask. It instantly fogged my glasses. So a lot of exhalation was not being filtered. Probably a higher proportion of inhalation would be, but the efficiency is too low.
Effective masks are used in industry, many with specific purpose. They give a much better seal, and many tackle the exhaled moisture problem by including a valve which bypasses the filter for exhalation. Which won’t stop us from passing it on. Economy might force us to accept that.
I watch the news for good ideas on masks. A cotton singlet over your face would be better than none, and maybe better that the ones I saw yesterday.
I hadn’t gone looking for masks yet because there hasn’t been much bug about here yet and the toilet paper thing would surely have flowed on to masks. I now predict that the toilet paper syndrome will flow on to paper towels and dispensers. It doesn’t make sense to be washing your hands often but using the same towel even twice.
20
Perhaps Andrews is taking instructions from Bill Gates. Perhaps not and both are just naive and out of touch of common sense reality. I hope it’s the latter because I would be really worried if the former is true.
Bill Gates’ Agenda???
61
Peter S, that video encapsulates the scenario we are living through. (Almost no need to watch all James Corbett’s expose of Gates of Hell!)
With all the harem- scarem in posts above, I want to know what the catastrophic death rate is of this “pandemic crisis” in Victoria. How many of the newly infected are actually dying compared to the ones who only have a runny nose or mild congestion? How many people are dying from the flu or pneumonia? Apparently there has been a miraculous reduction in these two major causes of death in the elderly. There is an enormous contadiction here. Death by flu/pneumonia is very common for elderly folk (like myself).
The Russian Government Medical chief said it was all B.S. Top epidemiologists, virologists, microbiologigists etc., disagree with the WHO/Fauci/Birx/Gates/Ferguson/Brennan narrative. https://off-guardian.org/2020/04/17/8-more-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/28/10-more-experts-criticising-the-coronavirus-panic/
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/
Countries such as Japan, Vietnam, Sweden and Taiwan are open for business. Dan’s gravediggers union have however been absolutely flat strap trying to cope with all the fatalities it seems. The police are said to be doorknocking to make sure people are in lockdown. I’d believe this is necessary if there were at the same time corpse collecters going along the steet calling out, “Bring out yer dead!” I do not want to cause offence to those who have lost a loved one but the final solution for everyone of us is the transition to eternity. It is something we must come to terms with, however painful the sense of loss.
71
His instructions are coming from Beijing innit? In any event after the removal of the Somyurek trio from cabinet the BRI advocate has been installed; maybe it’s just a bit of serendipity for the CCP. (good Gates clip.)
10
and the virus experts come climate change experts keep coming on. It would be a shocker if and when our leaders really stood up to them and called them for what they really are – terrorists against the West.
The Child Prodigy
81
but then again some of our leaders believe in that nonsense so I do wonder sometimes if there really is any hope for the West to survive much longer.
51
Don’t worry about the West PeterS, it’ll survive.
It’s Communist China that will soon take a tumble.
Firstly economically, then politically.
You really don’t think that the CIA is sitting on its hands do you?
“Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War.
51
No civilisation lasts forever. They all fall eventually. Western civilisation is no exception. The most likely cause will be the usual one; debt crisis, public and private. The US Fed is so desperate to keep rates low they are buying US corporate junk bonds by the bucket loads. They can only keep it going for so long before rates start to increase – and when they do the crash of all crashes will eventuate; shares and property.
41
I disagree with the suggestion that Beijing will collapse from the economic and political strain brought on by the pandemic. The people are tightly controlled by a fascist police state.
https://www.ft.com/content/6075d728-99ae-11ea-8b5b-63f7c5c86bef
30
That link doesn’t work, but the part I found interesting is that rural and urban people are registered differently. There are no guest worker ghettos from rural areas, everyone mingles normally and when the economy takes a dive these lower class workers return home to their rural village.
00
I see one of the reports mentioned was from the Guardian – surely they have shut down the presses and turned off their servers by now – or are profits from some slave owners good but other are bad?
160
Good point, who started the Guardian, more background needed on guardianship.
20
From a newspaper article:
“Originally called the Manchester Guardian, the paper was founded in 1821 by John Edward Taylor using profits from a cotton plantation that used slaves.
During the US Civil War the paper had sided with the southern Confederates against President Lincoln who wanted to abolish slavery. A leader piece said: “It was an evil day both for America and the world when he was chosen President of the United States.”
On January 2, 1863, it accused Lincoln of having “no desire to abolish slavery except as a means of extrication from the difficulties of government”.
A year and a half later it claimed: “Nor is Mr Lincoln’s re-election by fraud, violence, and intimidation rendered a matter of comparatively small importance solely by the fact that it reveals nothing with respect to the real wishes and thoughts of the majority of his fellow countrymen.”
The left-wing paper responded to Mr Lincoln’s assassination by laying into his presidency. On April 27 1865, it said: “Of his rule we can never speak except as a series of acts abhorrent to every true notion of constitutional right and human liberty.”
100
I think it was here in Part 1 where the news was let out
To tickle your sense of the ironical – you’ve likely seen that The Guardian is full bore on getting rid of links to slavery?
https://catallaxyfiles.com/2020/06/18/the-guardian-supported-slavery-ii/
Newspaper coverage around US civil war
Links to first post in there if you haven’t seen it
According to Andrew Bolt’s blog the awful ramifications have sunk in on Guardian staff.
And check the petition – money trail on Guardian founding
80
Petition to Shut down The Guardian Newspaper. Lots of people signing here yet the numbers seem to go down. Gotta check it a few times more to be sure.
23,572 have signed. Let’s get to 25,000!
https://www.change.org/p/independent-press-standards-organisation-shut-down-the-guardian-newspaper
50
At last report 3 of 30,000 protesters at the BLM rally tested positive. Apply that across Melbourne’s population of 5 million and there would now be 5,000 cases. From 50 active cases at the start of May, Vic now has 121 active cases with 17 new cases per day appearing. At the peak of the outbreak there was an average of 70 new cases per day (114 one day record).
By comparison, across the rest of Australia there is now an average of just 3 new cases per day, with 96 active cases, mostly in NSW.
Chairman Dan appears to have a more dictatorial attitude compared to other Premiers in issuing sometimes frivolous commands (no golf, no fishing etc).
90
Despite the most draconian lockdowns in Oz, Victoria has done the worst so Despot Dan is showing that lockdowns DONT work and is just killing his states economy. The rumour mill has it that Dans recent failures, Corona Virus fail, his subscription to China’s debt diplomacy, and the recent corruption scandals which is just a continuation of his previous corruption scandal (using public money for party political purposes) means his leadership is under threat.
Clearly we can see that lockdowns don’t do much, it’s testing and isolation doing the heavy lifting with a little help from hygiene (social distance, masks and especially hand sanitizer). If they improved isolation to be away from family then the outbreaks could be brought under control much faster, with lots of economic benefit.
152
Ignore facts
And run with ideology
It has all the answers !
Sarc/
BTW Bob this is a science blog
021
This is Not a “Science Blog”.
52
This is a blog which examines the various influences which distort, misrepresent and use a restructured form of science to lead people and countries up the garden path.
The main theme being examined seems to be human frailty and how it distorts the world.
71
Are you trying to wake a sleeping dog? The blog’s bete noir…
21
Serp, now you’ve got my attention?
What’s that?
00
KK
So far, without any evidence that survives outside this bubble.
12
Says Ms Evidence-FREE. !
Who hasn’t produce one bit of evidence of anything in any post he/she/it has ever made here.
10
For Pete’s sake.
There’s f all science in the CHO actions, closing bondi or surfers actually damaging health. Pushing people indoors is scientifically known to be counterproductive increases spread and reduces Vit D. Closing golf courses for the same reasons is actually making things worse.
State borders don’t need to be closed as the level of infection is low enough for a national response and the closures are UNCONSTITUTIONAL, THEY ARE ILLEGAL. This isn’t ideology, this is the constitution that protects us from our government. We don’t get to pick and choose when we will abide by it. Also, At the moment there are more deaths from mental health issues caused by the lockdowns than Covid-19. The disabled community is also badly injured.
It’s the state government ignoring science and evidence here, not me.
131
I’m also pretty sick and tired of your uninformed attacks.
Herd immunity is long term lower cost – mathematically true
UV and heat inactivate water based protein coated viruses – true
Financial stress causes suicides (and horrible family breakups) – true
Vitamin D helps fight viruses, – true
The constitution forbids states closing borders and restricting trade – True
Removing positive persons and quarantining them away from families is better than shelter in place – true
Covid -19 spreads further than 1.5m using microdroplet transmission – true
UV and salt infused air is more hostile to viruses than cold air-conditioned supermarkets – true
So what did I get wrong? Is it you following ideology?
121
Spot on. Even with a vaccine the virus will still be lingering around. So not opening state borders at this late stage where the number of cases are trivial if not non existent in some states is absolutely ludicrous. If it is possible it is time PM Morrison declared that such closures be declared illegal. Of course he has no will to do so as he is so gutless. The same sort of cowardliness showed wrt to the emission reduction madness.
30
“Herd immunity is long term lower cost – mathematically true”
True , unless you put a price on lives of course.
02
“unless you put a price on lives of course”
You are a far-left anti-human marxist totalitarian.
Stop pretending otherwise.
10
Jo
I was pleased that at least this time you mentioned that the death rate is not rising as much. In fact the death rate is falling and falling quite clearly both here and overseas. I know I harp on about Second wave Singapore but it’s second wave has been going on for a couple of months with new cases going from 900 to over 41000 but deaths only going from 11 to 26, in Australia we have the start of a second wave but no deaths for one whole month. Even in the US where the MSM keeps pushing the second wave narrative based on new cases the daily reported number of deaths is now 30- 50 % less than 4-6 weeks ago. In Israel your second wave explosion has been going for 4 weeks and there has been clearly few deaths , only 4 in that time.
If you look at virtually every countries death chart at the moment almost all the ones I’ve looked at have a classic bell shaped curve no matter what the shape of the new cases curve.
This will be perhaps due to many factors
1. More tests of people who are younger with mild symptoms
2. Better preparedness of countries to cope with those requiring hospitalisation
3. People who are vulnerable , the aged and sick , better protected and are self isolating out of fear
4. Widespread use of Hydroxychloroquin may be helping to reduce the potency of the virus
5. The virus itself when it returns comes back as a less potent strain
6. The number of people who have died already has reduced the number of potential victims available for the virus to kill.
Whatever the reason surely the bottom line is all that matters. Very few people know that in the US know there have been over 2 million cases but everyone knows there are more than 100000 deaths. Everyone knows that Australia has 102 deaths but few know we’ve had over 7400 cases . No one really cares how many cases there are if people don’t die.
If you look at influenza globally the figure of deaths is stated as being between 350000 and 650000 deaths , no one cares about the fact that there is about 1 billion cases of the flu each year. These figures on flu are even after a vaccine is readily available. In reality the inoculation of people with an annual flu shot is a recent phenomena. It’s still not compulsory , yet it still kills vulnerable people. Up until about 10 years ago very few people had flu shots and we just learned to live with it.
That needs to be the attitude here. Work on the assumption that no vaccine will be available not for some time if at all. Have procedures in place to manage outbreaks and protect the vulnerable. It’s not practical or beneficial to get spooked by new cases especially where those new cases do not lead to proportional increases in deaths.
Fear whether real or imagined is driving an agenda which is leading to people losing liberties and lifestyles they had probably taken for granted. Let’s focus on the bottom line “ deaths” and don’t be distracted by vested interests determined to make people feel anxiety and panic beyond any real perspective.
201
Victoria and NSW are not serious about Covid19 virus elimination. That’s the message heard in New Zealand, according to a story in Stuff.
Thus, travel will not be re-opening next month as hoped. Instead, it could be September or next year.
Or until the vaccine arrives, eventually.
Message sent, message delivered.
62
Message should be rejected because it was agreed some time ago it’s not about eliminating the virus. It’s about minimising the effects of it. At what point do the alarmists give it up and realise we have as much chance of eliminating the virus as eliminating the common flu?
60
This absolutely seems to be the problem, most of the world has about zero chance of doing what we have done. Some people think we can transfer our experience to say Sudan or North Korea or 3 meter per person New York. Given the virus will survive the NH summer, chances are close to 100% now that we are going to have to live with this disease.
80
In the US this will happen the day after the election.
20
Good point zigmaster,
According to Worldometer the mortality rate of closed cases here in Australia is now 1% (previously 2%).
Also out of 463 active cases only 2 cases are listed as serious (0%).
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/australia/
20
G’day Z,
Thanks for that, and especially for mentioning hcq at your point 4. As I’ve posted before, I’m a fan of Dr Zelenko’s “cocktail”, with added vitamin D, as a treatment, given early.
I’ll take this opportunity to re-post my views on possible cures, updated to include the use of vitamin C, in massive doses, given early post infection. I’ve also added two references, one on vitamin C, the other to Dr Zelenko’s two page letter .
…
Updated 13/6/20
Updated 20/6/20
This is my attempt to make sense of what I’m reading about the Wuhan flu, how it progresses and how it might be reduced to an insignificant irritant.
For this discussion I consider three phases which are of different lengths, with the third having two branches and two distinctly different outcomes.
(Updated to include Vitamin C Sat 13/6/20.)
…
Phase 1: the period prior to first exposure to the virus.
The general assumption by our public health officials appears to be that there is nothing that an individual can do to avoid infection once exposed to the virus, and are awaiting the development of a vaccine, or herd immunity.
My interpretation of the work of Drs Zelenko, Ban and others is that there are two probable prophylactic approaches that can be used: vitamin D3; and hcq/zinc. And these can be safely used together as Dr Ban has demonstrated.
My recommendation is that people, all people, build up their vitamin D levels to at least 30ng/mol (ref 1) and have those levels confirmed by a regular (annual?) blood test. Also ensure your zinc levels are adequate.
…
Phase 2: Exposed/infected.
2.1a) Immediately activate the Zelenko “cocktail”, plus vitamin D3, the latter at least until the individual’s blood levels are established, without waiting for any further test result for this virus, or
2.1b) Immediately have your doctor administer a massive dose of vitamin C, via injection. Expect positive result within 24 hours.
Excess vitamin C is excreted from the body so earlier administration is valueless.
If one of these is not done early the probability of hospitalisation is increased, as is the probability of death. Those that survive phase 2 go on to Phase 3, in just a few days ( Zelenko, Ban, vitamin C) if the above is implemented; weeks or months otherwise.
2.2 If you can’t stay out of hospital with the above, it’s probably too late for the hcq to be effective. I’ve not seen anything about the use of vitamin C at this late stage.
…
Phase 3: Recovery
3.1. For those who follow the hcq(or quercetin)/zinc/D3 before exposure, and have achieved adequate levels before exposure, infection will be avoided, so recovery time is zero.
3.2 For those who are put on to the regime immediately, or no later than first symptoms, recovery time will be a matter of days, with no after effects.
3.3 Too late. Weeks in hospital, and/or death.
…
Hydroxychloroquine (hcq)
A derivative of the anti-malarial drug chloroquine, hcq has been substituted for it in some countries, possibly because of supply problems. The two have similar (even identical?) anti-viral and ionophoric properties, and the side effects of hcq appear to be less pronounced.
Vitamin C:
This paper examines the history of the use of, and misinformation about vitamin C, and why massive doses require intravenous or intra muscular administration. Includes dosages.
http://orthomolecular.activehosted.com/index.php?action=social&chash=1d7f7abc18fcb43975065399b0d1e48e.158&s=82d1bc640a7a13c73ce1608af826df6a
Vitamin D:
The knowledge behind my view has been developed in just the past few months (March – May, 2020) as discoveries and experiments have revealed detailed aspects of COVID-19, but the new information has not been as widely disseminated as it might have been. Newspaper reports have regularly highlighted adverse results from studies and trials which have had significant flaws, especially in those investigating hcq, often excluding zinc from their trials, or using excessive doses, and administering it too late in phase 2, including after the patient has been admitted to the ICU.
The common view that a vaccine is the only way to achieve community relief has meant that precise public scrutiny of either a simple, fast cure or a preventative medicinal regime has been suppressed. And that suppression has not only occurred in the media but also in the public health bureaucracies. This failure is causing unnecessary deaths, other hardships and economic chaos.
…
My sources:
Zelenko: https:www.youtube.comwatchtime_continue=5&v=1TJdjhd_XG8&feature=emb_title
also, his recent letter, 2 pages, April 28, 2020:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pjgHlqI-ZuKOziN3txQsN5zz62v3K043pR3DdhEmcos/.
Ban: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7voUXgMCSs&feature=youtu.be
Seheult: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7F1cnWup9M&feature=m
hcq = hydroxychloroqine – only available with a doctor’s prescription
Quercetin: available without a doctor’s prescription. I got mine from the local health food store.
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jf5014633
Vitamin D: http://joannenova.com.au/2020/05/indonesian-study-low-vitamin-d-patients-ten-times-more-likely-to-die-of-coronavirus/
…
Cheers,
and again, thanks for the comments which provided the above, and other useful links,
Dave B 20/6/20
…
Original 6/6/20 posted at:
http://joannenova.com.au/2020/06/weekend-very-unthreaded/#comment-2335601
…
120
Thanks.
00
[Duplicate]
00
G’day mods,
I’ve tried to add a reply to Zigmaster, twice, and it’s just disappeared? What’s happening?
Cheers
Dave B
[Both comments have been caught in the spam filter David probably because of the multiple links , I’m just fishing them out now .]AD
11
Thanks AD.
00
And again, thanks.
Cheers
Dave B
00
This statement simply demonstrates a lack of appreciation of two factors:
1. Exponential growth – once the reproduction rate is above 1, the growth in numbers gets high real quick. Two weeks ago there were 7 US states with Rt above 1. Now there are 25. And Hawaii is at 1.6; only 800 or so cases but exponential growth quickly turns that into a big number.
2. There is a delay between the activities that result in infection of about 6 days as well as delay between infection and eventual death outcome of another 20 days. The second rise in US case numbers started a week ago:
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=countries&highlight=United%20States&show=25&y=both&scale=linear&data=cases-daily&data-source=jhu&xaxis=left#countries
Expect to see the death rate reverse the downward trend a month after the BLM marches; say end of this month or early July.
The IHME CV19 death projections are continually updated based on the latest data. The latest reports shows US deaths continuing to increase beyond October 1st:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Two months back the same model, with different input data, forecast a total of 60k deaths and it to be all over by August. It is now reasonable to expect there will be deaths for months to come. The country is probably past the peak in daily deaths but there are still a lot more to come. That will depend on how big the second wave is. Right now the wavefront is looking more like a tsunami than a ripple.
31
When I first visited rt.live Hawaii twelve days ago Hawaii was at the left extreme and today it is at the right, a dramatic deterioration in less than a fortnight.
20
Interesting tha Dan the Man had the most draconian response to Covid and the worst outcomes. So when that doesnt work of course he uses his intelligence to adapt and reverts to draconian responses (old constraints, amp up the police)
It makes so much sense to lock down Mildura, Warnambool, Wodonga and Sale because of what happens in north west melbourne
120
Northern Tasmania style community lockdown is being suggested for the “families cluster” and people are already panic buying toilet paper at supermarkets in the region.
10
It was a reasonable prediction that the BLM rally, with its flouting of disease prevention measures, would cause a spike in the number of CV-19 cases some 2 weeks into the future. It is now a reasonable assumption that, given the accuracy of the prediction, that this spike in CV-19 cases corelates positively with the Andrews government appeasing permission to allow the Marxist BLM rabble to thumb their noses at the rest of us as we struggled hard to keep the CV-19 pandemic under control in Australia.
93
Complete disregard for the lives and livelihood of others. I sheet most of the responsibility to the press who give these uncaring dingbats oxygen.
The police were wise not to make it more of a spectacle than it was. The press were there hoping for the confrontation that would sell more advertising space/time.
I would be happy to see the organisers locked away for the next 10 years.
112
Has anyone found a graph for victoria that is only community transmission ie it excludes the cases that have come into the state
40
Yes. Interactive. Futz with it.
https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources
10
Excellent thanks.
go here
https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources-states
first graph choose victoria. Unselect other categories. The only thing I’d like is for it to go back a month. It starts in May.
There is a definite uptick in the last week. KNown and Unknown sources of local transmission look at similar proportions as in May
30
“thing I’d like is for it to go back a month.”
Does make the N.T. chart a bit hard to analyse.
00
Seems silly to remove all time points just because it is hard to compare one state or territory in that time.
11
Ooops.
https://www.covid19data.com.au/transmission-sources-states
20
No problem, was easy to navigate to from your other link.
41
What I cannot find is what qualifies as ‘new cases’ – with more testing being done, are they calling everyone who tests positive a ‘new case’ or are these counts of sick people?
I figure, given the willingness to fudge and just plain make up figures we’ve seen since this began, if these were 25 new illnesses in a day they would make that plain. The fact that it is NOT being delineated seems to indicate these are just test results.
And if that is the case, it may just be they are finding people who contacted the virus weeks ago, rather than a new epidemic starting. The ‘2nd wave’ might just be the backwash of the original wave.
61
In Victoria a new case is a new person who tests positive.
31
With the effort going in to track and trace contacts etc, can’t see how it would be possible to make that mistake very often.
10
0.45% of floridians have now tested positive after 6 months.
I think you have to really go out of your way to spread this disease, because it is bloody hopeless at spreading widely.
50
So who put the effort and behind the scenes money into organising both the anti lock down and BLM rallies in order to help it along in time for the next season in a few months? Was it the same people behind both?
10
Do we have the ethnic demographics of the six Victorian hot spots?
10
You can’t ask that! 🙂 Brimbank, Hume, Darebin, Moreland in the northwest, and Casey, Cardinia in the outer south east.
Can say that they are generally lower socioeconomic areas with the odd gang.
50
Might be places where illegals can remain hidden and perhaps reluctant to get tested.
10
The situation is under control.
‘Police will enforce strict stay-at-home directions in Victoria’s coronavirus hotspots if the spread of COVID-19 cannot be suppressed before July 19, as epidemiologists warn a “severe regional lockdown” might be needed sooner to curb the outbreak.’ The Age
22
Jo,
Do you ascribe to the idea that dying FROM coronavirus is different than dying WITH coronavirus? If so, how would you suggest medical examiners write out death certificates?
I ask because a person who has diabetes and suffers a fatal myocardial infarction doesn’t have their cause of death listed as “diabetes”, so why are all CV+ patients who die considered to have died from Covid-19 and not their underlying condition(s)?
102
Good question,…waiting to hear the response.
20
In our area (central Washington State) an elder’s death was recorded as a virus one. However, the woman was the recipient of a double lung transplant about 10 years ago. Last year, she had moved from a small town where she was well known to the Seattle area to be close to the medical folks that were in charge of her health care.
Thus, she is older with a serious health problem. We never learned the reason for the lung transplants. Might that have been a continuing issue?
Her prior health was not mentioned in the newspaper when she died; only that the virus was the cause.
Considering the importance of Panic2020, societies need better detail on these sorts of things.
Several reports have been posted of folks dying – – having been involved in accidents, or in one case acute alcohol poisoning – – with Covid-19 listed on the death certificate. In Colorado this became a political issue. But it has happened elsewhere.
These sorts of things are not helpful in understanding the disease.
50
“Fortunately, deaths are not rising as quickly at the moment, because the cases are younger.”
There are many moving pieces to this thing.
One is that many elderly have died. In some places the numbers are staggering. And sad.
Two, (I don’t have great knowledge of this) the medical folks seem to have figured out better treatments than they tried in the first month or so.
And yes, those partying and those protesting are young compared to the old and ill in care facilities.
51
From the Oz:
“Sally Cripps, a professor of statistics at the University of Sydney, has weighed into the debate over coronavirus modelling that has contributed to the sharpest economic downturn in a century, in research written with Stanford epidemiologist John Ioannidis. ‘Despite involving many excellent modellers, best intentions and highly sophisticated tools, forecasting efforts have largely failed,’ they wrote in a draft analysis published earlier this month. ‘Implausible, exaggerated forecasts should be abandoned — otherwise they may cause more harm than the virus itself.'”
She’s right. The doomsday forecasters and the public health experts (sic) have got this whole thing horribly wrong.
121
She must be wrong…i purchased my first box of tissues in over 9 months. Surely we can model the virus by way of tissue paper sales?…so far, the tissues seem to be working.
10
An even worse and far more damaging potentially for Nation and States pandemic has again been identified.
First detected in the 1980s within NSW Labor a major new outbreak has been announced: EBS-20
Ethnic
Branch
Stacking
2020
60
There have been a total of 20,666 laboratory confirmed notifications of Influenza in Australia for 2020, at the start of 22 June. Please note that many people do not get tested for influenza and that there may also be some delays in reporting confirmed influenza cases.
ACT: 188
NSW: 7,071
NT: 277
QLD: 5,841
SA: 1,500
TAS: 157
VIC: 4,473
WA: 1,159
Previous years to end June and full year:
2019 120,000; 313,000
2018 16,000; 59,000
2017 21,000; 251,000
2016 13,000; 100,000
Jul-Aug is normally peak flu season.
30
Robber … your flu figures are correct.
To be a bit more specific, Australia had 30,568 flu notifications in May 2019 and 228 in May 2020 – a 99.3% reduction.
The winter flu season is upon us so flu numbers should be rising. Australia had 57,938 flu notifications in June 2019 and 89 so far in June 2020 – a 99.8% reduction.
Per 100,000 population, the flu notifications were:
Jan 2019 : 27.3
Jan 2020 : 27.9
Feb 2019 : 28.7
Feb 2020 : 28.7
Mar 2019 : 44.9
Mar 2020 : 23.6
Apr 2019 : 74.8
Apr 2020 : 1.2
May 2019 : 122.3
May 2020 : 0.9
June 2019 : 231.9
June 2020 : 0.4 (so far)
The May 2020 per capita rate was the lowest since 2007 and the June 2020 per capita rate so far is the lowest since 2004.
Looking at 66 other notifiable diseases excluding influenza, Australia had 24,437 notifications in May 2019 and 15,762 in May 2020 – a 35.5% reduction.
Australia had 21,059 notifications of these diseases (including everything imaginable including hepatitis, salmonella, typhoid, meningococcal, chlamydia, syphilis, measles, dengue fever, malaria) in June 2019 and 7,616 so far in June 2020 – a 63.8% reduction.
The only disease that’s increased quite sharply comparing those two months with last year is Ross River virus, presumably because they didn’t order a lockdown among the mosquitoes.
Globally with influenza, the World Health Organisation’s FluNet monitoring has 11 countries that have updated to week 24 ending 8 June 2020 (Australia, Canada, Chile, Denmark, Iceland, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Thailand, United Kingdom). Last year from week 14 to week 24 they had cumulatively reported 20,649 positive laboratory influenza tests. This year from week 14 to week 24 they had cumulatively reported 1,574 positive flu tests – a 92.4% reduction.
WHO member countries can be tardy in their reporting but there are 17 countries with positive test results from week 14 to week 23 ending 1 June 2020 (Australia, Cambodia, Chile, China, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Russia, Singapore, South Africa, Thailand, United Kingdom, United States). Last year from week 14 to week 23 they had cumulatively reported 61,997 positive laboratory influenza tests. This year from week 14 to week 23 they had cumulatively reported 2,620 positive tests – a 95.8% reduction.
An AMA report a few days ago noted that “a measles outbreak that was lapping at Australia’s shores earlier this year has been stopped in its tracks by border closures to address the COVID-19 pandemic”, with no new cases since February. The looming outbreak was highlighted by a “measles outbreak in Samoa between September 2019 and January 2020 which resulted in more than 5,700 cases and more than 80 deaths, mostly in children aged under 5 years”.
Unfortunately, it seems that Australia’s media has forgotten that there are diseases other than COVID-19, several potentially lethal among different age groups, so the only people aware that the lockdown has had a life-saving silver lining beyond just COVID-19 are readers of Jo’s blog.
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I’m sure that the media is aware of this and are just working out the best way to present it.
Slowly? Low key?
Not the sort of info that curve krushing politicians want voters to be aware of.
🙂
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Central West NSW the influenza numbers are down.
‘For the health district as a whole, just 67 cases have been recorded, compared to 704 over the same period in 2019.’ Advocate
00
Very old virus by now. …is it even too ancient to perform a second wave?
Must be the oldest virus mankind has ever encountered over again….At least 9 months old.
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Quick, pass me a Kleenex 🙁
10
https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.5V9yj8CrHXK9yODfJhcZnwHaHa%26pid%3DApi&f=1
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Andrews could be right. The outbreak of new cases could be familial. That’s because a lot of people seem to take their kids to demos these days when it’s warm and cuddly based like BLM.
Or the virus jumps on board there, says thanks for the ride and is taken into the otherwise occupied home as they all get home to celebrate.
The other matter is masks. Whether one believes in them or not is virtually immaterial. There is one thing that’s certain. Look at any gathering of masked people that are lingering about. Half the damned things are hanging below the mouth, are continually being pulled up by the possibly infected outside, or look to be OK until one notices the tenting each side of the thing behind the cheeks. If people talk they often drop the mask to the neck; they handle it. The external touching means they are touching the most potentially infected region of the mask, if one sees it as a
barrier to inhaling virus contaminated air. This would be worse than simply touching one’s uncovered cheek occasionally. The mask goes where the wearer goes and the question
then is, in a shop, a bar or a home, how is it handled? I defy anyone to prove a mask is effective when it is used and abused as seems to be the case with a huge number of wearers. Then it gets saturated with humid, expired respiratory air and everything sticks even better from the bugs
point of view.
The point is, even if they could ever be proven to be effective, or not, they have to be worn
perfectly – which to do over a prolonged period is almost impossible because they are irritating
beasts – or their effectiveness breaks down and perhaps they can be more of a trap than not wearing one at all. The more I see of them being worn for periods amongst the mobs, the more I
believe they are a mental comfort protection at best and may even be a vector for spreading the
disease at worst as the wearer idly handles it, brushes it, pulls it up and down, drops it below the nose or chin. Then there is the disposal.
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A load of interesting points Doc.
You seem to believe that the wearer is exposing themselves to a concentrated dose of their own virality. That may not be good but at least they’re familiar with those germs.
Probably the best feature of masks is that they limit the spread from you to others.
I tend to feel that overall there’s a benefit to wearing them.
🙂
20
David Price, a front line New York hospital doctor, made a video c.24.3.20 (YouTube?) suggesting some important ways of avoiding infection of which the key factors were ‘Proximity (less than six feet) to others for more than c. fifteen minutes increases infection risk either way especially in an enclosed poor or artificially ventilated space/ public buildings / transport / shop etc. The use of a mask likely gave a small protection against infecting others if you already (unknowingly) have the disease, but, primarily, the mask stops you touching your face around the areas most likely to cause you to become infected.
All in all the mask is not going to be especially useful if you are not following all the other rules regarding reducing infection risk especially proximity multiplied by time, but will be helpful if you also take precautions elsewhere. Mask wearing in my locality has increased recently mainly because you cannot use public transport without one.
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Kalm Keith. No, the mask as a protective device sieves the inspired air. That means the contamination
Is maximal on the outer side. The mask gets moistened from the other side as one expires. On the
inner side, one coughs, splutters, has nasal secretions gather. In medical conditions it is frequently
dumped, changed, and that’s why the system needs millions of them. Speaking of COVID, it can
therefore carry a load of contaminant bugs on either side, with COVID on one side and whatever
bugs you carry in your nose on the other.
All I am saying is, face masks depend on being perfectly worn, and handled, to be effective .
Their useful lifespan as disposables is limited especially when worn over a longer period of time.
One needs to be aware of their limitations. If you are still confident in them, by all means do so.
But be aware of their infected surfaces when both wearing and disposing of them.
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Thanks Doc,
For myself I occasionally wear a mask in the supermarket mainly as a courtesy to others in that I’m hoping that my breath will be contained rather than widely spread.
Not an expert in this area of science but tend to suspect that there is so much micro life out there that trying to avoid it all might make us paranoid. Still, I shower once a day and wash my hands strategically to avoid self contamination and feel good that my immune system is occasionally given routine challenges.
KK
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I see a research project to study how entities as simple as viruses are able to determine which hosts are attending BLM rallies and know not to infect them.
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If civilization had been left to women we would still be living in grass huts. In recent years women have become more involved in politics. This has made our social responses more emphatic. However, this may not be a good thing in the long run. Maybe society would be better served by 5% casualities from covid19 rather than the collapse that may occurr from the lockdowns.
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Second wave of infections in South Korea :
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53135626
02
and then .6-22-20 “It was at a time (Jan. 15th) when they had already sent hundreds of thousands of people to this country to spread that virus”
-Peter Navarro, US trade adviser, to Fox News https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/23/white-house-advisor-peter-navarro-says-china-trade-deal-is-over.html
00
2nd wave hysteria mounts, you need a severe case of imaginitis to see a second wave in the VIC chart, but sure panic early and panic often
00
The lockdowns – and all the associated pain, inconvenience and financial loss that went with them, now seem to have been squandered.
(Now, maybe the sunk cost fallacy applies here – I’m still thinking about this one.)
00