JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


Handbooks


Advertising


Australian Speakers Agency



GoldNerds

The nerds have the numbers on precious metals investments on the ASX



The Skeptics Handbook

Think it has been debunked? See here.

The Skeptics Handbook II

Climate Money Paper



Archives

Books

Friday Open Thread

Just remind me if I forget OK?

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 9.2/10 (10 votes cast)
Friday Open Thread, 9.2 out of 10 based on 10 ratings

157 comments to Friday Open Thread

  • #
    max

    In heavily-tested Iceland,

    Thorolfur Guðnason, Iceland’s chief epidemiologist

    “Early results from deCode Genetics indicate that a low proportion of the general population has contracted the virus and that about half of those who tested positive are non-symptomatic,” said Guðnason. “The other half displays very moderate cold-like symptoms.”

    “87 per cent of deaths in Italy have been in patients over 70 years old – as happens during ANY flu season.”

    “The average age (of the deaths in Italy during the 2020 pandemic) is 80.3 years. The majority of deaths had 3 or more associated serious health issues.”

    170

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Interesting max….in view of what Sam Vaknin expressed recently….
      “Shockingly, not a single randomized, double blind trial with a control group had been conducted on any population anywhere in the world: …”

      51

      • #
        Peter C

        Perhaps not surprising. A randomised double blind trial (RBDT) takes quite a while to organise.

        The RDBT is only necessary if the benefit is fairly small. In a clear cut case it is not necessary and would be unethical. Most of the really important medical discoveries did not involve RDBT.

        60

        • #
          jkb

          Efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients with COVID-19: results of a randomized clinical trial:

          doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.22.20040758

          20

          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            yes i saw those hydroxychloroquine papers in part, and yet nothing on the randomised testing to get an idea of the overall infiltration ….for example, it could reveal the approximate number of those already infected with antibodies…??

            10

            • #
              Environment Skeptic

              *those presenting with antibodies..

              To get the approximate percentage of population thus far infected…in real time plud or minus a couple of days would be fine..

              00

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          agreed…hardly surprising….If anyone can organise some RDBT…?? Out of working hours (OOWH)or during time off/out (TO) It would be a small detail however it may be, at least then, it might at least then be possible to know how far into various populations the virus has actually infiltrated in terms of a specific randomised percentage sample that have presented with antibodies..

          10

    • #

      I read that Italy did a quick study and only 12% of those who died with the virus, died of the disease. All were reported as virus deaths. So the death numbers may be way too high.

      60

      • #
        Raving

        Death numbers are numbers of deaths. Be they high or low there is little to be gained in arguing that the parrot is or is not dead

        21

      • #
        Raving

        However one cuts it there are a lot of corpses piling up in cemetaries churches and refrigerated trailers. That is not normal

        41

  • #
    Leo Morgan

    I see Newscorp and the Guardian are again pushing the coral bleaching barrow. Do we have any “hight above sea-level” figures for the current bleaching event?

    80

    • #
      el gordo

      The Klimatariat make a strong argument.

      “It’s quite concerning that we are getting this much heat stress across the Great Barrier Reef in an Enso [El Niño southern oscillation]-neutral year.

      “What we are seeing on the Great Barrier Reef and potentially elsewhere is really being driven just by anthropogenic climate change.” Guardian

      How can we refute what they say?

      I’m not sure if there was a momentary drop in sea level, they are saying its warmer water. Over the past few months the GBR enjoyed cooler south easterly breezes, which may have inadvertently warmed the GBR.

      22

  • #
  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Hmm…this basically looks like a destroyed country and never ending virus infections if it goes on for 6 months.

    Sod that. People will probably start rioting after being locked up for 3 months…..

    There needs to be an acceptance that we take a hit and live with this damn thing, or go back to living in mud huts as our economy and standard of living collapse.

    It is a model after all,…and we know how good models aren’t….ask the IPCC….

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-03/coronavirus-data-modelling-covid19-stay-home/12114978

    “Australia is only a few days into its latest regime of strict self-isolation measures designed to fight the coronavirus pandemic, but already, many people are asking — when will they end?

    “Not before late July at the very earliest, modelling from the University of Sydney suggests.

    “The model, first published last week and now updated, shows:

    “Strict physical-distancing measures are beginning to work and Australians appear to have been about 90 per cent compliant with advice to stay at home wherever possible
    However, scaling back our isolation regime would cause case numbers to spike dramatically — until such time as new measures, especially more testing, are in place
    With the current measures, Australia should be close to the peak of new infections
    …….
    “If cases are just going to spike again, what is the point of physical distancing?
    Professor Prokopenko is hopeful that a rebound is not a foregone conclusion.

    “”If we have better and more efficient testing, and good contact tracing of cases, we can track down all remaining cases and reduce them to zero,” he says.

    “”Even asymptomatic people could be tested to catch all the cases immediately.”

    “He expects that testing time could be reduced to two to three days by the time a three-month lockdown scenario ends — and will be far more widespread than it is now.

    That aligns with an outlook Dr Norman Swan, host of the ABC’s Coronacast, has set out if the community maintains strict social-isolation measures.

    “If we all get behind this, we stay at home, we minimise our mixing with other people, kids stay at home and we do it tough for a period of time, you could get it down to really low levels,” he says.

    However, he confirms Australia’s testing regime will have to change dramatically.

    71

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      O.K.

      We’ve just about finished week one.

      I suspect that judging by the number of of closed shops everywhere there are going to be a lot of very unhappy people running out of money in about 7 days.

      This whole mess has been created by the likes of Angela and her untested “migrants” bring in in a cohort who have never known the rigid vaccinations and inoculations used in the West, have comingled throughout the whole of Europe.

      There are better ways of doing this that don’t involve destroying half a century of growth and development that was very hard won.

      We now have COMO, this virus you get from our PM, then in Britain they have, and in Europe they have COGELA which even covers the Vatican. China started this with COXI and Vietnam acknowledges CONA, Miss Na.

      If politicians walk out of this unscathed I will give up on the human race.

      KK

      70

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      My apologies for being immoderate.

      [released from the auto filter KK and no idea why it takes a liking to you every now and then ]AD

      30

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        It seems to be missing the British version COBO?
        That’s all there is from you KK if something’s been removed by the filter try reposting and I will keep an eye out . AD

        00

    • #
      Raving

      3.7 m Australians over the age of 65. Assume a 5% death rate and only those over 65 years dying to reach ‘herd immunity’. Translates to 185,000 dead Australians

      60

      • #
        Raving

        by the time you have reached 185,000 dead seniors the hospitals will be overflowing at 5 to10x overcapacity with Australians BELOW the age of 60 fighting for their lives for weeks on end

        61

        • #
          toorightmate

          The hospitals are in a state of preparedness for something big in Queensland.
          I have visited Wesley, PA and Royal Brisbane this past week. The are very few patients, very few staff and very few services – Amazing.
          The scarceness of people in hospitals is matching the scarcity of traffic in and around the city.

          40

    • #
      Just Thinkin'

      Original Steve

      These governments have achieved in two weeks what our Climate Change fanatics
      have been trying to achieve for 30 YEARS…

      The TOTAL ruin of the Australian economy…

      And, as you say, if this continues for 6 MONTHS we will all be back in “caves”…There’ll be no water
      to be able to build mud huts.

      Ah, yes, models….Jo knows ALL about them, eh.

      20

  • #
    Yonniestone

    Just a reminder even with very light traffic on our roads there’s still people who don’t pay attention, in the past fortnight I’ve witnessed three minor accidents around town and the aftermath of a couple of others, the people in the wrong were simply not looking where they were going two were looking down at their phones and the other the wrong direction.

    So even though it seems like 1960′s traffic conditions there’s still an element of uncertainty made worse from drivers stressed, tired and complacent, I rode the motorbike last weekend enjoying the near zero traffic when someone pulled straight out of a driveway in front of me in an 80kmh zone luckily there was no oncoming traffic as I had to use the oncoming lane to avoid a collision.

    Stay safe people.

    130

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Yonnie
      I had a bingle on Wednesday night coming home after taking my lady to work her night shift.
      It happened when I did a right hand turn.
      And a 2WD ute with bull bars roared out of the darkness with parking lights on & no headlights.
      I’m insured; he is not.
      Police has fined him for lack of attention and undue care.
      And he is angry at me !
      Today I got a string of abusive & threatening text messages.Must see the police tomorrow again.
      But a busted rib takes precedence; plus simple fatigue !

      40

  • #
    Mick

    Influenza is a highly contagious respiratory illness that is responsible for significant morbidity and mortality. Approximately 9% of the world’s population is affected annually, with up to 1 billion infections, 3 to 5 million severe cases, and 300,000 to 500,000 deaths each year. On these numbers the best case scenario is a death rate of 5 per cent while the worst case scenario is a death rate of 10 per cent.

    There are 1,015,466 COVID-19 cases worldwide with 53,190 deaths or a death rate of 5 per cent. On these worldwide numbers, the death rate of COVID-19 is no worse than influenza.

    In Australia, influenza on average causes 1,500 to 3,000 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year. Best case scenario is a death rate of half of one per cent. Worst case scenario is a death rate of 1 per cent.

    To date Australia has 5,224 cases of COVID-19 and 24 deaths or half of one per cent. On these numbers for Australia, the death rate for COVID-19 is no worse than influenza.

    So why is COVID-19 considered to be worse than influenza and why do we have all sorts of measures in place for COVID-19 that we don’t have in place for influenza?

    106

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Good questions.

      Scomo?

      53

    • #
      Scott

      Well said Mick.

      Time for everyone to realise this and demand we return to normal before we can’t.

      64

    • #
      Raving

      17 deaths now out of a population of 65 retired residents. Half of the remaining seniors are showing symptoms. The link below is 2 days old.

      This is just one example. Its way worse than influenza.

      https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/coronavirus-outbreak-pinecrest-nursing-home-bobcaygeon-1.5515543

      93

    • #
      Murph

      Your numbers for the global of influenza death rate is way off.
      The Global death rate for influenza is about 0.05% to 0.1%

      As for Australia, your 0.5% to 1% death rate is based on GP consultations and not total cases. This means that the death is most likely lower.

      So no, Covid-19 is worse than the flu.

      Covid-19 also spreads faster than the flu, has no vaccine or preexisting immunity.

      70

    • #
      WXcycles

      On these numbers the best case scenario is a death rate of 5 per cent while the worst case scenario is a death rate of 10 per cent.

      We do not have 5% to 10% percent of our population die every year, the usual season flu does no such thing.

      So why is COVID-19 considered to be worse than influenza and why do we have all sorts of measures in place for COVID-19 that we don’t have in place for influenza?

      That would be a total lack of immunity. Which is not the case with a seasonal flu for which we also have vaccine freely available to the most vulnerable.

      Not even remotely similar.

      90

    • #
      el gordo

      Influenza begins in China and South East Asia, along with most of the deadly plagues over millennia.

      https://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2008/04/17/2219549.htm

      Its about time the World Health Organisation attempted to eradicate influenza and other despicable viruses.

      30

    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Mick,
      This lockdown and ban on flights is also destroying the flu season !
      Now isn’t that a nice surprise !
      Or are you missing it !
      :-)

      41

    • #

      the answer has to do with freezer vans

      00

    • #
      Plain Jane

      Being one of the 300,000 to 500,000 who are severely affected by the flu (or even cold) to where I have had pneumonia and sick for at least 4 months every year for the last 4 years, and all those times if the sick person I caught it off had taken the simple “social isolation” of either NOT coming to work sick, not going to public parties while sick, or wearing masks while sick, then I see it as a good thing that peoples social behavior toward influenza and colds changes. It does NOT ruin the economy if people actually use their sick leave for being sick, and we wear masks like in SE Asia, and we get rid of this stupid idea of “soldiering on” when sick, and not taking responsibility for the damage that that does to others. I hope this is an opportunity for the medical systems in the world to get their act together and sort out cures and treatments for viruses. The invention of antibiotics has been one of the greatest boons to mankind. If what comes out of this is treatments for colds and flu just think what a great saving being able to treat virusus as well will be to mankind. Combine that with the link between viruses and some cancers and its a greater boon. I am SO relieved this year to be able to get others to comply with the social distancing I need to keep myself from the pain and stress and suffering of the “normal” flu, as if that amount of death and suffering happening now, so its OK, when it would be better if Corona Virus and all those others as well were treatable or preventable. I am one of those, because of a hyperactive immune response to viruses, that would die. Given where I live, which is remote rural, i am looking at almost totally isolating myself until they discover a good vaccine and good treatments. It is rather daunting to think about being totally alone for a year or more without sight or contact with humans. I cant afford to get injured as a) no one would know and b) I would likely get corona and die if I got taken to a medical fascility. So NO, current mortality and morbidity from flu is not OK, so neither is adding to it with Corona Virus. I would hope the human race has more ambition than to just let heaps of people die from CV without trying to fix it. We were due a big recession anyway as the govts have been printing too much money for too long. Most of the bad effects of the coming recession are probably goint to be because the effects of all the “quantitative easing” are going to become apparent.

      30

    • #
      Plain Jane

      And if treatments for viruses turn out to be simple drugs that we already use, all the better. There is the now well know possibility of Chloroquine, zinc and Azithromycin. Another turned up on the net today, surprisingly Ivomectin. There are others. Imagine if we do get some treatments for the “common” flu that kills so many people every year. Also just think of all the people that wont get sick and die from common flu, because of societies response to Cov19.

      “In Australia, influenza on average causes 1,500 to 3,000 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year. Best case scenario is a death rate of half of one per cent. Worst case scenario is a death rate of 1 per cent.”

      The damage caused by flu does not mean we should not do anything about Cov19, it means we should do something about both, while we have the chance of this level of co-operation within and between governments and pharma companies exists.

      What happens if it really is that bad, and we end up with something like the consequences of the Spanish Flu. Then it is too late to bring things under control. Certainly we will find out in the next month or two just how bad it can get in those countries that do not have modern medical care. Wether we get proper statistics is another question all together.

      00

  • #
    Rupert Ashford

    A few months ago there were some attention in the media about the severe drought in Southern Africa and the fact that the Victoria Falls on the border between Zambia and Zimbabwe stopped flowing – first time EVA!!!! CLIMATE CHANGE!!! Globull Warming!!!! etc.

    Now this

    https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/africa/watch-victoria-falls-drought-water-flowing-recovery-levels-video/

    But very little news. Maybe everybody is fixated on The Virus…

    110

  • #
    MP

    I don’t know if these papers have been posted here before.

    My niece is a Biochemist in the USA who does work on these things, she said this virus makes no sense, its structured and they cannot evolve at the rate this one did.

    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research-1.18787

    https://greatgameindia.com/indian-scientists-discover-coronavirus-engineered-with-aids-like-insertions/

    the below is in reference to the first link, photo of the good doctor did not paste?

    “From 2014, Shi Zhengli was the recipient of a number of US Government grants as well as grants from the National Basic Research program of China, the Chinese Academy of Science, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, and from the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, to assist in funding research into coronaviruses.”
    “Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV. Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis. Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein.”

    Dr. Shi Zhengli

    Below is a couple of words from the bottom link

    To our surprise, these sequence insertions were not only
    absent in S protein of SARS but were also not observed in any other member of the Coronaviridae
    family (Supplementary figure). This is startling as it is quite unlikely for a virus to have acquired
    such unique insertions naturally in a short duration of time.

    70

    • #
      el gordo

      Are you suggesting its a human induced pandemic?

      00

      • #
        MP

        I’m not suggesting anything, just putting the papers up for debate. probably just a coincidence.

        30

    • #

      Hi MP. Who are you?

      The thing you’ve pasted has done the rounds of the fringe for some time and is a disconnected mishmash that any viral biochemist would be ashamed of.

      11

      • #
        MP

        Actually my niece has not seen these papers yet, I sent them two her two days ago and no reply to date.
        she has read other papers on this virus which she stated were gobblygook also, so maybe these are, I am not qualified to say.
        If you could point out the disconnected mishmash I would appreciate it.

        cheers

        30

        • #

          This is a big problem with not moderating blog comments. Here we have a person who admits to not being qualified to judge what they are posting and yet they posts it and no one stands in the way.

          The commenter also uses having a biochemist niece as some sort of entry point then offers no contribution by the niece (btw only a small percentage of biochemists would be able to comment with expertise on viral biochemistry) and follows it with some peripheral research and a long excerpt without comment about how it matters.

          So no. I’m not going to bother further dissecting and discussing what I consider to be junk and I wish people wouldn’t think it ok to post it and for blogs to allow it.

          [ I keep telling you and another that provided a comment is within Jo's rules it's not our job to censor comments we don't necessarily agree with .
          For a start it's an open thread .
          Your ABC started the conversation on the virus being manufactured.
          The commentor has put something up for debate and because we allow views we don't necessarily agree with or are contrary to our own we allow a diversity of opinion without censorship .
          While there are limits to what will be allowed , this comment to me while controversial is put up there for debate and if you want to debate it great if you don't that's your business .] AD

          31

          • #
            Chad

            This is a big problem with not moderating blog comments. Here we have a person who admits to not being qualified to judge what they are posting and yet they posts it and no one stands in the way.

            Well, if you enforced some kind of “qualification to post” .. this would be a very limited thread !
            ..as would most threads on here !

            20

          • #
            MP

            I posted here as I believe its Jo’s area of expertise.

            (btw only a small percentage of biochemists would be able to comment with expertise on viral biochemistry), and yet you comment.
            The idea of posting stuff is to discuss it, that is the point of these forums.

            So no. I’m not going to bother further dissecting and discussing what I consider to be junk and I wish people wouldn’t think it ok to post it and for blogs to allow it.

            So you consider it to be junk, if it is it is, but taking the word of someone that makes a claim without supporting it. Naaah

            I would like it explained, I will wait for the Niece to reply seems you can’t.
            I read an article and followed the links and ended up at what I posted.

            20

  • #
    ren

    SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. “Our vaccine elicits the right response in animals. It gives us wings.”
    As Dr. Mariola Fotin-Mleczek said on Thursday, SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus vaccine has been working since mid-January. The vaccine is intended to be innovative because it uses ribonucleic acid, which contains information about the structure of the protein on the surface of the virus.

    - We have been preparing it for animal testing since January, and at the same time, the production of this vaccine for human testing started two weeks ago.

    80

  • #
    Peter C

    Hydroxychloroquine

    It is time that we talked about hydroxychloroquine. Donald Trump thought it might be a game changer. Since then or because of that scientists and health authorities have either lampooned the idea or have steadfastly ignored it.

    The Conversation, Scientific American and the US Chief Health Officer (Dr Fauchi) all panned the idea.

    Now a few sporadic reports are coming in:
    1. ” Last week, Dr. William Grace, an oncologist affiliated with Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City, said they’ve not had any deaths in the hospital of close to a 100 patients. In an interview with Fox News host Laura Ingraham, Dr. Grace said: “Thanks to hydroxychloroquine, we have not had a death in our hospital.”
    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/30/dr-william-grace-thanks-hydroxychloroquine-not-death-hospital/

    The journalist tweeted her interview only to have Twitter delete here tweet, calling it misleading.

    2. Dr. Vladimir Zelenko has now treated 699 coronavirus patients with 100% success using Hydroxychloroquine Sulfate, Zinc and Z-Pak [UPDATES]

    ” Dr. Zelenko said he saw the symptom of shortness of breath resolved within four to six hours after treatment. Hydroxychloroquine is now being used worldwide, according to a map from French Dr. Didier Raoult.”
    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

    Apparently we do not have any supplies yet.

    130

    • #
      Scott

      I believe the CDC has given it the nod and the FDA has said it can be used in emergencies.

      Look out for full FDA approval next week.

      I also remember a couple of weeks ago that the PM (ScoMo) said he was putting in an order?

      20

      • #
        Peter C

        a couple of weeks ago that the PM (ScoMo) said he was putting in an order?

        If so, was that all? We actually have limited pharmaceutical manufacturing capacity in this country (or we did until fairly recently). Should ScoMo have ordered them to make Chloroquine?

        41

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        It’s still not available.

        20

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Hydroxychloroquine rated ‘most effective therapy’ by doctors for coronavirus: Global survey

          https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/2/hydroxychloroquine-rated-most-effective-therapy-do/

          “An international poll of more than 6,000 doctors released Thursday found that the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine was the most highly rated treatment for the novel coronavirus.”

          50

          • #

            @Sceptical Sam: An acquaintance in the pharmaceutical industry advises that there are no supplies of chloroquine available in Australia. Does that mean that people going to say PNG or any other country where malaria is endemic, now have to obtain their supplies AFTER they have left the country? If so, that is an outrage.
            5 of us going to PNG in 1986 had chloroquine before we left. After that it was provided free of charge by our place of residence, PNG University of Technology. None of us got malaria in the three years we were there. And, none of us got a cold or flu in that time either.

            70

        • #
          Furiously curious

          I’m pretty sure I saw recently that India, the major producer of the drug, was banning exports. They were definitely banning some drug exports.

          20

        • #
          Furiously curious

          I’m pretty sure I saw recently that India, the major producer of the drug, was banning exports. They were definitely banning some drug exports. If that is true there will probably be a spike across Africa at some stage, as they are the big buyers of cheap Indian pharmaceuticals.

          10

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Interesting.

      Don’t know if it’s going to help but I got some tonic water a few days ago and am slowly taking in quinine.

      40

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Even camel dung is hard to get…definitely the global supply chain is not in exceptional working order.

        01

    • #
      Graeme#4

      Tonight the Ch 9 news had a deliberate put-down of chloroquine, again raising the strawman of the misuse of chloroquine phosphate, an aquarium cleaner, and by implication linked chloroquine use to misuse of other furphys such as methanol. The statement was made that none had been supported by Aust medical, which is probably the case.

      60

      • #
        Chad

        G Hunt confirmed today that they are “planning a trial” with 2000 doses of HCQ drug !
        WTF ! 2k doses ? ..a Trial ?.. that will be months before thay get a report even.
        This drug has been PROVEN in mutiple other trials, and it is an approved drug.
        IF this virus is as virulent and dangerous as we are told, WHY are the authorities not shoveling this stuff out like popcorn !

        30

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Chad:

          Simple. No-one thought to buy any.
          2k doses is probably all that was in stock.
          They aren’t doing anything much, but frantic running around in circles distracts the media.

          30

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            Well, that got through.

            Been having mini-blackouts here in the Adelaide Hills. About 1-4 seconds, just enough to upset the wireless modem,
            my i-phone hot spot but not my laptop. Also the TV.
            Had about 40 last night, mostly after the cool change had passed, then at least 12 while it was raining in the last 20 minutes.

            Not above 14℃ today and saw a Yeti** in the local fruit shop car park.

            **that was a Skoda Yeti.

            00

  • #
    Greg in NZ

    On the eighth day of lockdown, I’m happy as can be . . .

    Eight days ago, my landlord spat the dummy when I refused to pay an extra $50 per week rent: he said, “now you’re not working you’re going to use more electricity”, which was not only rubbish but illegal (under our new State of Emergency laws). When he began throwing my possessions onto the footpath I phoned the police and within 10 minutes two young policewomen had sorted the problem out: he couldn’t raise the rent, plus he couldn’t evict me, especially on the first day of the country’s so-called ‘lockdown’.

    A buddy from down the coast fortuitously phoned me and, hearing of the shenanigans going on, offered me his sleepout as his flatmate had left that very day. Checking with the police officers if that was OK under Jacinda’s new travel ban, and getting a nod and a thumbs up, I packed my life into my van and headed into the sunset along a deserted southern motorway.

    My buddy’s a builder and I haven’t worked so hard in this past week since I was a young fella travelling overseas. But now he has a new shed, I’m fit as, got a great suntan, because the CLIMATE has been BEAUTIFUL! Calm, dry, sunny days, light seabreeze in the afternoons, fun small swell (bodysurf to wash the day off) – this is the life – long may it last!

    150

    • #
      Peter C

      HI Greg,

      I thought you were already living an idyllic lifestyle in a caravan near Wellington. Is that where you were kicked out from?

      I am glad the new arrangements are even better. Now your old landlord gets No Rent.

      90

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        A “caravan near Wellington”? Must be another Greg.

        An “idyllic lifestyle”? Yep, that’s me – I try my best.

        Had been on the North Shore of Auckland, now 3 hours south in the Bay of Plenty at a place referred to as The Mount, two roads back from the beach, el supremo idyllic.

        And today the climate was STILL beautiful. Crisis? What crisis!

        00

  • #

    Let’s look at something intriguing here, and it comes out of China, and it’s only happened recently.

    Most of you know I have an interest in China’s electrical power data, mostly to explain the truth when there is so much that is patently false written about China’s electrical power generation.

    To that end, way back in August of 2008, 12 years back now, I wrote up a four part Series on The Three Gorges Dam. (at this link) What actually ‘got’ that dam constructed was the huge one in a hundred, or even one in a thousand year flood that hit that general area of Hubei province in 1954. The major city of Wuhan (actually three combined towns/cities of Wuchang, Hankou, and Hanyang) was totally evacuated, all 8 million of them in fact, just a small number of the 18.8 million people displaced when the flood covered 75,000 square miles and cost 30,000 plus lives in the flood and following famine. Parts if not all of Wuhan was covered by floodwaters to a depth of 80 feet ….. and remained covered for up to three Months. When it subsided Wuhan grew from 8 million people to the 11 million it is now.

    Anyway, Three Gorges was the result, and the dam is 300 miles away as the crow flies. It had been originally planned back in 1919, and went through five plans before it was finally started.

    Now, the dam is on the Yangtze River, and (in a ‘similar’ manner to the Fitzroy Basin) the Yangtze has nine major rivers flowing into it in its upper reaches. By far the main one of these nine Rivers is the Jinsha River, basically just an extension of the Yangtze. (this is in a similar fashion to the Bhramaputra River in India which has three separate names starting out life as the Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet) This Jinsha River is also known as The Gold Sand River, and that introduces one of the problems of The Three Gorges Dam, silting up from the sand. To assist with that buildup of sand, there are numerous dams on those upper reaches nine rivers. The most of those are in fact on that Jinsha River, and there are seven major dams. Xiloudu is the major one, and if you want to get an idea of modern thinking in hydro, then this is the one for you to check out. It has a Nameplate of 13,860MW (Three Gorges is 22,500MW Nameplate) Those other dams on the Jinsha total out at 52900MW, with four hydros alone having Nameplates greater than 6500MW. There are four hydros on the Yalong River, and another three or so on those other rivers.

    So now, add up the Nameplates for all these 14 hydros and the two majors on the Yangtze (Three Gorges and Gezhouba) you have a Nameplate of 93,400MW.

    So you can see that when it comes to renewables in China, hydro makes up the bulk of it, and all these hydros are only part of the total Nameplate for hydro in China of 357,000MW and a power generation of 1301TWH, (so that’s a Capacity Factor of 42%) and for comparison, Australia’s total power consumption is 205TWH, so China Hydro is 6.35 Australia’s total generation from every source. Just Three Gorges alone in each of the last two years delivered almost half Australia’s total power, 100TWH plus each year.

    Okay, scene set with all that background.

    Every so often I go back and look at Three Gorges on Google Earth (and I have the Pro version) just to see the build up of everything around that area. As far as I can gather, it has been updated around five times, probably more since that first time I looked back in 2008, when I took a screen print of the image. Each time I have looked across the years, there has been a huge buildup of towns, cities, the whole thing, in the vast area around the dam, and up and down the River itself, between it and Gezhouba downstream.

    A few days back now, I wondered how close Wuhan was to Three Gorges, so I went and had another look. Something intrigued me so I went in and had a closer look, and I mean I scrolled right in, and looked at the dam itself.

    They, (well someone, either Google or umm, dare I even mention it, Google at the behest of the Chinese) have replaced the actual photographic image of the dam itself with a computer generated image that looks close to what it should look like ….. from a distance, but going right in to look closely, there is ….. nothing of the original detail of what was at the dam itself, and those hydro Units which you could plainly see across the years.

    It seems odd that this image has been altered, and keep in mind here that the last time I did look was probably in mid to late December, and everything was detailed at that time.

    Intriguing to say the least, almost as if there was something to hide, eh!

    Tony.

    190

    • #
      tonyb

      Tony from oz

      In a letter to one of the UK newspapers a phd scientist now retired, said in the 70′s it was accepted that all influenza varieties that came to the west originated in the ‘Lakes’ in the Chinese wet markets. Any idea where those ‘lakes’ were, as I suspect it has long ago been converted to hydro power. I make no comment as to whether the claim was true

      40

      • #

        Umm, Wuhan is at the Junction of the Yangtze and the Han Rivers, and the city contains many ….. lakes. That was the problem with that major flood, and the major floods earlier than this and the major flood of 1998.

        Tony.

        70

        • #
          tonyb

          Hmm. Thanks. Well that is at the very least interesting. I might investigate a bit more about the claim that this is where flu strains start. Science may have moved on since the 70′s although as with AGW often it is more reliable than modern data.

          40

    • #
      Geoff Sherrington

      Tony,

      Here is the Jinshajiang a few hundred km upstream from the 3 Gorges, here at Tiger Leaping Gorge, Yunnan, taken in 1993. With lats and longs of 27 11 18 N, 100 06 33 E, it would be a good site for a major dam itself, but for the historical significance and other Chinese factors unknown.
      I see your point about the computer dam. It has even been placed over the historical imagery. Chinese reasons unknown.

      http://www.geoffstuff.com/china_tlg.jpg

      As for wet markets, try this for starting them young.
      https://medium.com/shanghaiist/mom-feeds-live-tadpoles-to-her-kid-says-they-will-help-keep-him-healthy-3d26cabbe936

      30

      • #
        toorightmate

        By accident/coincidence, my wife and I had dinner with a Chines geologist in 2012 in Wuhan (female). She was very impressive – more so than most of the many Chinese mining engineers, geologists and metallurgists I had met since 1975 (first year that Pilbara iron ore went to China).
        The woman’s specialty was dam site selection. She was a department head in China’s hydroelectric commission. Their intent at that time was to substantially increase hydro power. The main stumbling block was people not wanting to relocate – an international issue when considering hydro – except in Australia where we are more worried about “rare” birds and insects than we are about people.

        60

    • #
      WXcycles

      This Jinsha River is also known as The Gold Sand River, and that introduces one of the problems of The Three Gorges Dam, silting up from the sand. To assist with that buildup of sand, there are numerous dams on those upper reaches nine rivers.

      Dredging sand isn’t a problem they have in the South China Sea. ;-)

      40

  • #
    tonyb

    In the UK, deaths where CV is present must be recorded as the cause even though the patient may have died WITH it rather than OF it. This prompted a number of posts which are self explanatory;

    April 3, 2020 at 2:27 am |

    “Are the increasing deaths an artifact of the ramping up of the number of tests per day?”
    Yes. With positive test the deaths are simply called covid-19 deaths.
    *
    According to the WHO’s new mortality codes for Covid-19, deaths with positive test are coded U07.1

    “Suspected” or “Probable” Covid-19 deaths without a test, are coded U07.2
    https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/

    Hence the pandemic of reporting “Covid-19 deaths”

    This from the WHO site;

    https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/covid19/en/enu
    Emergency use ICD codes for COVID-19 disease outbreak

    “The COVID-19 disease outbreak has been declared a public health emergency of international concern.

    An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.1 COVID-19, virus identified’ is assigned to a disease diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by laboratory testing.
    An emergency ICD-10 code of ‘U07.2 COVID-19, virus not identified’ is assigned to a clinical or epidemiological diagnosis of COVID-19 where laboratory confirmation is inconclusive or not available.
    Both U07.1 and U07.2 may be used for mortality coding as cause of death
    In ICD-11, the code for the confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 is RA01.0 and the code for the clinical diagnosis (suspected or probable) of COVID-19 is RA01.1.”

    Perhaps Jo could comment on this as it was earlier reported that in Italy some 12% of deaths listed as CV, was the virus found to be the actual primary cause. Has this changed? Was it ever true?

    50

    • #
      joseph

      I’ve been coming across articles and interviews where the tests are being questioned. Here’s the most recent one I’ve seen.

      https://blog.nomorefakenews.com/2020/03/30/corona-creating-the-illusion-of-a-pandemic-through-diagnostic-tests/

      21

      • #
        tonyb

        joseph

        I don’t want to get into conspiracy theories as the basic information was good in the link but open to that bloggers interpretation. However the UK govt said they had moved slowly up till yesterday as with many suppliers 3 out of 4 tests showed false results.

        Leading on from that this link is interesting from a sober medical source when I googled

        “can an elderly patient with existing morbidities die of mild common flu’ The answer is most definitely yes. So we have a problem whereby tests are not always that good, covid 19 must be listed on the death certificate if it is present even though it may be that -according to Neil Ferguson- up to two thirds of this category of patients would likely have died in 2020 due to flu or existing ailments.

        In Italy it appears still that around 12%-14% of those who have died actually were killed by covid 12 with those most at risk being the elderly and with already compromised health..

        10

  • #
    RickWill

    Here is a challenge. Before reading the link further down, what 3rd world country do you think would have their nursing staff using garbage bags as their primary PPE against COVID19 as shown in this linked image – India, Indonesia, Thailand?
    https://www.wsws.org/asset/de942713-bda2-41f6-94be-acf55f990acN/image.jpg?rendition=image480

    Now that you have looked at the image read through this link:
    https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/03/31/para-m31.html

    All the hospitals were caught with their pants down in this public health crisis. At the start, comparing ourselves to China, we thought we were prepared, but we were definitely wrong. In EMS (Emergency Medical Services), we dropped the ball years ago. We’ve been running down ambulances from the fire department side. Forty ambulances are out of service, because we don’t have crews to stock them. Twenty percent of our personnel have been cut,

    My son is a hospital registrar and pointed out to me a few weeks ago that USA would be a disaster with COVID19. He told me to look at the average life span in the USA. It has been declining for the last 5 years. They effectively have two health care systems; one for rich and next to none for poor. Australia is not quite as bad as US.

    All the hospitals were caught with their pants down in this public health crisis. At the start, comparing ourselves to China, we thought we were prepared, but we were definitely wrong.

    50

  • #
    Scott

    I am surprised anyone is accepting what the governments, the UN (WHO), main stream media and the “experts” have to say.

    Have we not learned from the Global Warming / Climate Change lies?

    111

    • #
      Raving

      The WHO has gotten it right surprisingly. Less can be said of other governances

      07

      • #
        RickWill

        The WHO caused this global mess by not locking down China when China locked down Wuhan. China had effective measures in place internally while arguing that they should not have travel restrictions imposed on China. Their puppet, Tedros, at the UN was vocal in resisting any efforts to stop travel in and out of China.

        70

        • #
          Raving

          China didn’t behave so badly. Hardly different to all the other countries that kept their boarders open out of an abundance of excessive virtue signalling.

          Moreover, now that we play a global game of musical chairs where the music has stopped and everyone is sitting down. How do we proceed further? Issue ‘immunity passports to brits and swedes? Aussies need not apply because they escaped the pandemic huh?

          more to the point a million+ each of brits aussies, americans, chinese philipinos germans italians french spanish travelling studying vacationing abroad. Do they get hung outvto dry while the musical chair game goes on for months and years?

          14

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            The globally connected world ideology
            We no w know has major flaws
            Which has caused major problems.
            And you want to keep that globally connected world as the dominant model for te world ?
            Bugger
            Talk about being unable to learn from a complete disaster !

            10

            • #
              Chad

              Bill,
              Untill you have a better model ,without any hidden flaws such as this panic,…then be careful whaat you jump into.
              There is no such thing as perfection.

              21

        • #
          Raving

          When there was a SARS epidemic in Toronto and 43 people died, they never invoked social distancing or locked down the city as they are doing so now.

          China made a huge effort to freeze people in place regrdless of cost and in the mist of a massive holiday migration. Give them credit where it is due. It is difficultvto imagine anyone doing more

          12

          • #
            Bill In Oz

            HONESTY & TrANSPARENCY would have helped a lot !
            Instead CCP China has lied, lied & lied some more !

            40

            • #
              Raving

              The WHO is peddling an updated kinder and more effective version of an age old technique. Its called ‘quaranteen’

              It works. it emphasizes social distancing. It is localized to the immediate proximal location where it applied..

              Restricting travel from afar is important but it is mainly and ultimately about the isolating of mixing of individuals.

              testing testing testing and contact tracing to further isolate is the main modern upgrade to boost the isolation.

              Until other treatments come along, this is the best science can offer. Full marks to WHO for getting this correct.

              03

    • #
      RickWill

      Why does anyone need to accept what governments are saying. I was limiting my contact with others well before it was mandated.

      It was blindingly obvious to me that China had a serious health emergency from the images and reports coming out of Wuhan in January. The fact is there are plenty of dingbats in this world who simply cannot appreciate the bleeding obvious and are willing to become a host to a dangerous virus. Their actions risk the health of the entire population so governments need to mandate and enforce what sensible people do anyhow.

      Truly stupid people were heading off to board cruise ships while the Diamond Princess was quarantined in Japan. I saw an Australian woman interviewed recently stuck on a cruise ship somewhere asking ScoMo to get her home. She had left for the cruise while travel restrictions were already in place in Australia. She claimed it was not her fault because the cruise operator would not provide a refund. That is just one example of how stupid some dingbats are.

      Today NSW police fined 59 dingbats who were breaking quarantine. The world is infested with dingbats. That is evidenced by the number who are convinced there is such a thing as “greenhouse gasses”.

      100

      • #
        Bill In Oz

        I too am amazed at the stupid behaviour of so many fellow Australians
        Your first duty is to check out that the situation before you leave

        But at least the whole Cruise ship thing is dead in the water now.

        20

  • #
    MP

    Mod is there a reason my comment has been in moderation for hours, #8

    Cheers

    M

    [Sorry MP but sometimes there are a lot of comments that need sorting and there might not be a mod lurking in the background ,there is provision for you to email about lost comments .] AD

    00

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Channel nine news has obtained copies of emails between NSW health and the Ruby Princess ship , leaving in no doubt that it was the NSW health dept that stuffed up .

    60

    • #
      RickWill

      I was wondering if money changed hands. It is difficult to believe there was no financial motivation for such incredible stupidity.

      40

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Rick it’s the NSW government we are talking about , competence is something I will never accuse them of .
        We’re talking about the same govt that made it legal for a man to have an abortion .

        70

      • #
        ianl

        Look at the language from Ch 9:

        “Channel nine news has obtained copies of emails …”

        The MSM never “aquires” information, it is supplied to them with leaks, sometimes for money. What is certain is that senior Health personnel did not supply the leaks, since they were responsible for this stupidity. Either the ship’s management, or perhaps a politician who wants to get rid of Hazard, perhaps even from the Premier’s Dept. I can easily imagine Berejiklian may be heartily sick of Hazard.

        80

  • #
    RickWill

    Big brother is now watching you and can assess if you are doing the wrong thing. This is the current report for Australia:
    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_AU_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

    This is for USA:
    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_US_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

    This is for Sweden:
    https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_SE_Mobility_Report_en.pdf

    Japan may not have mandated restrictions but changes in activities similar to Australia and USA.

    US and Australia are similar changes to activities. Sweden much less reduction in most activities and actual dramatic increase in parks. Less residential increase than both USA and Australia.

    30

  • #
    Dave in the States

    Last week I reported that we are still having winter but it was predicted that this week would be a big warm up. Didn’t happen. In fact we had 3 snow storms. It is 8 degrees F right now. Now they are predicting the winter weather to continue until at least next Thursday, with the round of snow storms starting Sunday night.

    Last year was similar with very cool weather all the way to the summer solstice. The 18-19 winter was one of the coldest with the most snow since 1983.

    When I see people out about-dressed like they are on an Arctic expedition-and keeping our distance- they comment that they so sick of this. I reply that I’m still sick of winter from last year. It started in mid Oct with the coldest temps recorded for Oct since 1968. We have had some snow cover on the ground throughout since then.

    I already had cabin fever and then spring fever before this madness started because we have had 15 months of winter in the last 18 months. Despite this, Since I’m a part time care giver to my elderly parents I decided to quit going to the gym and self isolated as much as practical in Feb. By March I started forbidding my Dad to go out willy nilly in public. My mom was already hiding out but one of her lifetime friends died in early March (not virus caused) and she insisted on going to the funeral. The next day they stopped having public funerals. I had her gloved and masked, but sure enough, 5 days after the funeral she came down with a runny nose. It ran its course after three weeks, so I don’t think it was the virus. I’m trying avoid hospitals because that seems to be where the risk is greater for exposure.

    Last week I took the Mustang out of hibernation and went for a good hard drive. It was therapeutic.

    Reporting from the Snow Ball Northern Hemisphere.

    60

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Weather.
      Here at 34° South and on the coast we range from 40 to 100 F.

      After going through 3 months of bushfires and smoke it seemed that it would never rain again: now for the last month it has rained most days.
      Weather. :-)

      30

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Looking at the total snow cover northern hemisphere, it is off the charts. Well above average from the Finnish product…has been for months!
      https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

      50

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        Dusting of April snow on Tassie, VIC and NSW’s tops this afternoon – keep it to yourselves, please, we’re having a lovely Indian summer over here :-)

        Last week Europe had a nasty cold snap, with snow on the peaks and FROSTS in the valleys, damaging vineyards and other crops in France and Italy. Scotland’s ski fields are looking the BEST in years yet are closed. Norway and Finland are getting hammered by Arctic blizzards (roads closed) and snow is falling in North America. Hawaii’s summit road to Mauna Kea has been closed due to “freezing snow and ice” on and off the past few weeks.

        R.I.P. Goebbels Worming 2020.

        30

  • #
    Environment Skeptic

    Good podcast IMO (In my opinion)
    From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TYtIsf-OB_c
    “COVID-19: War of the Olds (vs. the Young) & Narcissism, Naturally
    770 views
    •Apr 4, 2020
    “What does COVID-19 have to do with Narcissism? Is it Really the Old vs. the Young? And How will it all End?

    First posted on Dunc Tank:

    https://dunctank.podbean.com/e/sam-va

    00

  • #
  • #
  • #
  • #
    • #
      el gordo

      The scribes there pretty much shot down the theory that bushfires cause a warming of the lower stratosphere. Spencer is only using the satellite dataset, which is limiting.

      00

  • #
    RicDre

    COP26 Postponed

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/01/cop26-postponed/

    If they are serious about reducing CO2 emissions, why don’t they have the conference on the scheduled date as a Video Conference? Think of all of the CO2 emissions that would be saved. And to make it even better, they could require that all video conferencing equipment be powered by renewable energy.

    40

  • #
  • #

    Throwing cold water on hot climate models
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2020/04/03/throwing-cold-water-on-hot-climate-models/

    The only climate model that agrees with observations says there is NO climate emergency. Meanwhile half of the IPCC models are getting hotter than ever before, hence getting further from reality than ever before. A modeling showdown is looming and CLINTEL is a leader among the climate critics. They make a strong plea that in the current health emergency any climate action should be put on hold. “Why construct a false climate crisis on top of a true corona crisis?”

    My previous article — “CLINTEL Manifesto blasts climate scaremongering” — includes the all important graphic showing a dramatic divergence of the IPCC climate model predictions from the satellite temperature readings. The models are all running much hotter than reality. See https://www.cfact.org/2020/01/29/clintel-manifesto-blasts-climate-scaremongering/

    There is however one major model that agrees with the satellites, that being the Russian model. The reason is simple, yet profound. CLINTEL President professor Guus Berkhout explains it this way: “I have studied Russia’s climate model INM. Unlike IPCC’s models, the Russian INM model predictions fit the measurements remarkably well. A plausible explanation is that it uses a negative cloud feedback: –0.13 W/m2/degree C, while the IPCC models use a large positive cloud feedback: up to + 0.80 W/m2/degree C. This large positive cloud feedback is responsible for the catastrophic IPCC predictions.”

    The physics behind this explanation is pretty simple. Warming leads to more water vapor on the air, which causes increased cloudiness. Clouds can then either increase the warming (positive feedback) or decrease it (negative feedback). The scientific question is which occurs? The Russians are finding that it is a negative feedback. Measurements support them.

    CLINTEL is an international climate science advisor so it makes sense that they look closely at these findings. Their vision is: “Progress requires Freedom of Speech and Freedom of Scientific Inquiry.” In fact Professor Berkhout has been officially invited by the Russian Academy of Sciences to learn more about the INM model and to share the climate vision of CLINTEL.

    Unlike the U.S. and European modelers, the Russian modeling community has not been captured by the alarmists. This has given them the freedom to explore the negative feedback option, which the alarmists have refused to do, at least so far.

    But even within the alarmist community we see a promising development, as a big fight is shaping up over cloud feedbacks. The IPCC is in the process of writing the latest of its big Assessment Reports, which it does every five years or so, this being the sixth report (AR6). Most of the major alarmist climate models are run to feed into this report.

    This time we see that in AR6 about half of these models are running much hotter than they did for the fifth report (AR5). Although the review process is not yet finished, it appears that the AR6 modelers have juiced up the positive cloud feedback. We are not aware of any big new science to support this exaggeration. Has it been done to support the political push for radical zero-carbon laws? The hotter the model the worse the catastrophe it predicts from fossil fuel use, justifying a higher level of panic.

    A lot of people within the climate community are questioning this increased global warming in the AR6 model outputs. For one thing it suggests that at least half of the models are wrong, either the half that haven’t become hotter (predicting the same level of panic as in AR5) or the half that have (predicting a higher level of panic as in AR6). In the process the alarmist consensus is coming apart. How the IPCC will handle this schism remains to be seen.

    A higher positive cloud feedback may not solve all inconsistencies, but for sure we may state that it is a most unlikely assumption on the modeler’s part. No science compels this choice and measurements strongly advise against it. This opens the door for the empirically confirmed Russian findings, which call into question the entire catastrophe narrative of AR5 and even more AR6.

    Professor Berkhout puts it succinctly: “If the Russians are right, the carbon budget – being the amount of carbon mankind may emit before we reach the 1.5 and 2 degree C warming thresholds in The Paris Accord – is very, very large. In other words, there is no problem with continuing CO2 emissions until we have a technologically reliable and economically affordable alternative. Zero emission in 2050 is totally foolish. Looking at the the current health emergency it is a crime against humanity.”

    It is ironic, yet fitting, that the “blue sky” fantasy of climate alarmism may be brought back down to earth by clouds. Negative feedback is a truly positive message.

    80

    • #
      Dave in the States

      Does the Russian model use a similar TCR? The reason for their lower ECS is based on more realistic feedback predictions then? I wonder what they say about the nonexistent hotspot?

      10

  • #
    Raving

    the world’s ethanol (gasahol biofuel) growers will be kept busy producing ethanol for hand sanitizers. There is a huge global shortage of sanitizer right now.

    10

  • #

    What is TCR? I will pass these questions on to Berkhout for his Russian visit, or maybe get a contact through him.

    10

    • #
      Dave in the States

      Transient climate response. The climate sensitivity without feedback estimates.

      20

      • #

        As I thought afterward. TCR and ECS are both nonsensical so maybe not. They may have focused on explaining observation. I would. That is real science.

        20

        • #
          doc

          Can’t be real science without homogenation!
          Who believes a thermometer these days?
          Data has to be destroyed, made to ‘fit’, before its usable.

          (cynicism)

          10

  • #
  • #
    dinn, rob

    3 cheers for the decent soul of America, may she rise into the infinite!
    https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/04/usn-captain-croziers-letter-created.html

    10

  • #
    Yalla-Y-Poora Kid

    Our BOM’s predictive power (or lack thereof) has been on display in the past few days.
    In my suburb Scoresby VIC we have had falls of
    26 mm on Wednesday followed by
    21 mm and overnight Friday
    44 mm.
    Total 91 mm in three days of April.
    Monthly average long term 67 mm.

    Prediction by our BOM around 25 – 30% of the amount measured. Elders forecast maybe 50% on their upper limits.
    Seems their modelling has the virus as well, severely underperforming.

    70

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Remember this year is supposed to be the start of the end of our snow seasons according to BOM and that other radical lefty organisation the CSIRO.

      20

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Now that cop26 has been delayed until 2021, does that mean the apocalypse of global warming is also delayed, or is it advanced by one year?

    If the question is stupid, wait for the answer.

    50

  • #
    Raving

    “The coronavirus pandemic is the breakthrough Xi Jinping has been waiting for. And he’s making his move.”

    https://apple.news/A9dQBlZtzR5mz3wY2UmE2wA

    This ought to be interesting. The way I see it, the COVID19 epidemic is the straw which is going to break the globalization/AGW/outsourcing back.

    The banks are overextended at home. Countries are being forced into self reliance

    The forces are afoot for isolationism and local growth to stave off depression. Peoplearen’t going to worry about hypothetical climate change deaths when real deaths are very much current and money is scarce to pay for anything

    50

  • #
    Robber

    The number of actives cases is declining in some countries according to Worldodometer:
    Sth Korea, peak 7,362 March 11, 3,979 April 2.
    China, 58,016 Feb 17, 1,863 Apr 2.
    Switzerland, Austria currently at peak.
    Hopefully in Australia current peak of active cases 4,704 will now halve over next three weeks.
    But for most countries the peak is yet to come.

    10

  • #
    Boris

    IMHO governments are trying to decide how to put a global electronic currency together with green credits and debits which will be a reset to the financial monetary system. Either a transitional type that can later be expanded into every sphere of human transactions or it’ll be a finished article.

    But first they will destroy the middle class and any capital accumulation in the hands of the middle class. This is being done by the lock-down.

    Call me crazy because I can’t categorically prove it.

    50

    • #
      Boris

      That’s my best guess that this whole thing is about.

      Of course, typically, there are other repercussions and aims that governments will use this episode for but that would be long and tedious to write about.

      I could be wrong but….. it ain’t quacking like a duck, looking like a duck or smelling like a duck!!

      40

      • #
        farmerbraun

        In NZ the money is being spent to give non-essential folk a very mild taste of what they are going to get when the Depression hits hard , when they are to be locked down in very miserable conditions; the lockdown being necessary then to maintain law and order when the sheer poverty and misery bites.
        This is the plan we have followed , pretend to shut the border , pretend to quarantine arrivals from infected area , and pretend to lock down the non-essential, who are in fact just running around holidaying at taxpayer expense.

        It’s the biggest psy-op since AGW. And it achieves the same goals.

        50

    • #
      el gordo

      ‘But first they will destroy the middle class and any capital accumulation in the hands of the middle class.’

      Your hypothesis is flawed, its more than likely that the elite and poor will be eliminated, leaving us with the greater middle class, upper and lower.

      01

      • #
        Boris

        “Your hypothesis is flawed, its more than likely that the elite and poor will be eliminated, leaving us with the greater middle class, upper and lower.”

        Your assumption is that those who took the risk will shoulder the cost. Taxpayers are going to pick up this one unless we pull an Iceland which is not possible considering we are under quasi house arrest.

        That’s never played out that way in past situations – perhaps Iceland is the exception, but that’s an anomaly with very specific contextual influences that made it possible – nor have the architects of a new system built in their own demise.

        10

  • #
    farmerbraun

    All the news that is news from Godzone.
    No evidence of curve -flattening as community transmission accelerates.

    https://thebfd.co.nz/2020/04/covid-19-update-4-april-2020/

    10

  • #
    RicDre

    Latest Earth System Models predict more global warming than their predecessors

    https://usclivar.org/research-highlights/latest-earth-system-models-predict-more-global-warming-their-predecessors

    H/T
    Week in review – climate science edition
    by Judith Curry

    10

  • #
    RicDre

    Deep diving scientists discover bubbling CO2 hotspot

    https://phys.org/news/2020-01-deep-scientists-co2-hotspot.html

    H/T
    Week in review – climate science edition
    by Judith Curry

    10

    • #
      Lucky

      Area of ocean with very high CO2,
      but mention of reefs, so reefs are alive!
      but no mention of ‘acidification’, so presumably, none.

      10

  • #
    RicDre

    Why does the weather stall? New theories explain enigmatic ‘blocks’ in the jet stream

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-does-weather-stall-new-theories-explain-enigmatic-blocks-jet-stream

    H/T
    Week in review – climate science edition
    by Judith Curry

    10

  • #
    RicDre

    Former UN Climate Action Leader on Covid-19: “Moments of crisis are always moments of opportunity”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/04/03/former-un-climate-action-leader-on-covid-19-moments-of-crisis-are-always-moments-of-opportunity/

    20

  • #
    Raving

    Quotiing a bunch from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

    “Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

    This number would still be insufficient to reach herd immunity, which would require 2/3 of the population (about 40,000,000 people in Italy) having contracted the virus [source].

    The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

    If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.”

    00

  • #
    Rocket Rod

    An interesting new story just popped up, the one of Bill Lapschies.
    Aged 104 he survived the Spanish Flu, the great depression, WW2 and even CV-19 despite it making him very ill. Walked out at age 104…
    No border controls, no social distancing, no economic collapses needed…
    One hell if an immune system methinks.
    Note the pre CV19 obsession with cleanliness.
    Household products that kill 99.9% of germs and if course the other 0.1% become the global insurmountable threat of superbugs.
    So…your immune system is weak as it never has to combat anything due to your bizarre fixation of cleanliness thereby making you more susceptible to illness.
    Now we have CV19 and even more obsessiveness over cleanliness.
    See how our actions create the very problems we now try to solve?

    By current data CV19 is definitely FAR less serious than the panic merchants, MSM and govt’s would have believe.
    Slightly worse in reality than a bad flu season. Still…what follows (as I said) will be far worse.
    I expect that reality be become clear before the end of this month.
    We live in troubled times but then we always have…

    20

  • #
    Chad

    BLOG SPEED …is getting even worse !
    If nothing changes , its only a matter of time…once this confinement is over.. and i will not be bothering to return here.
    ..Shame , so many good discussionsand viewpoints here !

    20

  • #
    Scott

    Reports beginning to surface on Social Media that the US Military are bringing in many children to hospitals in Texas and other US / Mexico border states. Nurses are stating the children are in a very bad state both physically and emotionally. Also stating the children are not CV19 cases.

    Something is happening during this “pandemic” that is not being talked about, yet.

    30

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘My hypothesis is that, thanks to the decisive measures taken by most governments, the daily growth rate of total confirmed cases will continue to fall, and that about 1-2 weeks from now the fall will become quite rapid, perhaps buying enough time for health services to increase their capacity to handle intensive-care patients on ventilators, and to perform antigen tests for the presence of the virus and, no less importantly, antibody tests to demonstrate that those who have recovered are immune.’

    Christopher Monckton of Benchley (wuwt)

    20

  • #
    Bill Thompson

    On Sunday morning, I chatted with David Speers & Sam Clark, outside Insiders & observed that Covid had achieved what Global Warming couldn’t – getting the ABC to stop flying in people from all over Australia, to sit on the studio couch for an hour, before flying them back home again! Progress at last!

    20

  • #
  • #
    toorightmate

    Obviously you have never been to China. Their toilets and hygiene habits are disgusting. Japan is excellent.

    40

  • #
    Boris

    No, I haven’t been to China but I think right now that it’s beside the point

    21

  • #
    el gordo

    Premier Xi needs to man up and admit the homeland is a cesspit.

    ‘China is under fire from critics who argue the country is trying to whitewash the fact the coronavirus started in Wuhan and the Chinese Communist Party covered-up the outbreak and downplayed how contagious it was between humans.’ Daily telegraph

    30