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The inference crisis: when one third of experts draw the wrong conclusions with “way too much confidence”.

So much for expert judgement

In a test of scientists abilities, the same data was sent to 27 teams of researchers in cognitive psychology. The idea was to test the theoretical inferences they drew. But those expert teams drew conclusions from identical data that varied, oh boy, all the way from “zero to 100 percent.” One of the research team described it as a “jaw dropping” result –   where only one third of the experts made the correct inferences about what that data meant. Two thirds of the experts were either totally wrong or just operating “a bit better than pure guessing”.

What are we teaching at universities?

Beyond the ‘replication crisis,’ does research face an ‘inference crisis’?

Researchers test expert inferences against known data, find inconsistency

What they found was “enormous variability between researchers in what they inferred from the same sets of data,” Starns says. “For most data sets, the answers ranged from 0 to 100 percent across the 27 responders,” he adds, “that was the most shocking.”

Rotello reports that about one-third of responders “seemed to be doing OK,” one-third did a bit better than pure guessing, and one-third “made misleading conclusions.” She adds, “Our jaws dropped when we saw that. How is it that researchers who have used these tools for years could come to completely different conclusions about what’s going on?”

Starns notes, “Some people made a lot more incorrect calls than they should have. Some incorrect conclusions are unavoidable with noisy data, but they made those incorrect inferences with way too much confidence.

To determine if researchers can use these tools to accurately distinguish memory and bias, the UMass researchers created seven two-condition data sets and sent them to contributors without labels, asking them to indicate whether or not the conditions were from the same or different levels of the memory strength or response bias manipulations. Rotello explains, “These are the same sort of data they’d be confronted with in an experiment in their own labs, but in this case we knew the answers. We asked, ‘did we vary memory strength, response bias, both or neither?’”

The volunteer cognitive psychology researchers could use any analyses they thought were appropriate, Starns adds, and “some applied multiple techniques, or very complex, cutting-edge techniques. We wanted to see if they could make accurate inferences and whether they could accurately gauge uncertainty. Could they say, ‘I think there’s a 20 percent chance that you only manipulated memory in this experiment,’ for example.”

Starns, Rotello and Cataldo were mainly interested in the reported probability that memory strength was manipulated between the two conditions.

Not just psychologists:

 ”We’d be stunned if the inference problems that we observed are unique. We assume that other disciplines and research areas are at risk for this problem.”

REFERENCE

Jeffrey J. Starns et al  (2019)  Assessing Theoretical Conclusions With Blinded Inference to Investigate a Potential Inference CrisisAdvances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 2019; 251524591986958 DOI: 10.1177/2515245919869583

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The inference crisis: when one third of experts draw the wrong conclusions with "way too much confidence"., 9.0 out of 10 based on 73 ratings

134 comments to The inference crisis: when one third of experts draw the wrong conclusions with “way too much confidence”.

  • #

    It’s bad enough we have a climate crisis.

    “Proof” of that crisis:
    Government bureaucrats with science degrees have been predicting a climate crisis for over 30 years in a row, with great confidence (currently at a 102% confidence level), and they are going to keep predicting a climate crisis until one shows up. with the predictions stated LOUDER, and with even more confidence, every year.

    Now we have a replication crisis, and inference crisis, on top of the (always) coming (but never shows up) climate crisis ?

    These so called “scientists” sure cause a lot of trouble.

    I would not buy a used car from a scientist !
    .
    .
    .
    Here in the USA we are still waiting for our “promised” global warming:

    2019 has been unusually cold.

    We’ve had 60+ years of coming climate crisis predictions, yet for the United States 48 contiguous states, January through August 2019 was the COLDEST January through August since U.S. records were kept in 1895. ( based on the Average Daily Maximum
    Temperatures in NOAA’s 1,218 U.S. Historical Climatology Network, or USHCN, land surface weather stations ):

    So, scientists keep predicting a warmer climate, and the U.S. gets colder !

    The obvious, simple solution is for scientists to start predicting a colder climate, then the U.S. will get warmer, and everyone will be happy,except the leftists — they are never happy !

    Please send some warm weather to Michigan USA where I live.

    It’s too cold here !

    330

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      No problem Richard,
      they will just recycle all those stories from the 1960′s and 70′s about the coming Ice Age. And if you go back another 50-60 years you will find the same predictions (I think 1925 was the latest).
      1967 Already too Late: Dire Famine Forecast by ’75
      Salt Lake Tribune 17 Nov. 1967 Professor Paul Ehrlich said the coming ice age will cause droughts.Oil will run out in 10 years. The “times of famine” are upon us, and will be worst by 1975. Ehrlich said “the world food supply cannot feed the expected 2½ billion people expected. It is totally impossible in practice. By 1975 cannibals will roam the Mid West.
      1970‘America subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by 1980.’ James P. Lodge junior (Scientist) Source: Boston Globe, April 16, 1970
      1970 New Ice Age coming by 2020
      World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
      1971: U.S. Scientist sees New Ice Age Coming
      The world could be as little as 50 years away from a new ice age
      The Washington Post July 9 quoting N.A.S.A.

      1972: New ice age by 2070 Oil will be gone in 10 years
      Dr. S. I. Rasool NASA & Columbia University & Dr. S. H. Schneider
      backed up by Dr. Gordon F. MacDonald “It may be necessary to stop all use of coal, oil, natural gas and automobile gasoline and switch in the main to nuclear energy

      1974: ‘New Ice Age Coming Fast’
      Letter to the President from George J. Kukla (Columbia University) & R.K. Matthews:

      120

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      ‘So, scientists keep predicting a warmer climate, and the U.S. gets colder !’
      I suggest they as Prof Zharkova (who is predicting a Super Grand Solar Minimum) instead of the IPCC why..something to do with the GSM, not that the IPCC want to know that inconvenient truth.

      20

  • #

    When someone doesn’t understand or accept something subjective, they tend to invent context and read between the lines for conformance to what they think they know. This is the status quo for to political discourse. Unfortunately, this method of justifying subjective ‘truths’ has no legitimacy when it comes to the objective truths of science, yet far too many fail to understand this.

    But then again, when did cognitive psychology become an objective science?

    260

    • #

      This the first thing that came to my mind. These ‘educated’ people have been ingrained with bias at university, so everything they analyse and assess is clouded by those biases. This is clearly even more pronounced when it comes to anything to do with the climate.

      And it’s even more relevant to ask ‘how are we teaching at universities?’ And who are the teachers?

      120

      • #

        And here’s another interesting bit of news:

        Scientists at the University of Hawaii have uncovered a computer glitch that brings into question the findings of over 100 academic research papers.

        According to a report by Vice, scientists at the University of Hawaii discovered that a commonly-cited chemistry research paper was built around faulty computer programming. The original study’s authors issued an update to their paper last week, explaining that 1,000 lines of code that helped determine the outcome of the study were faulty.

        How often does this happen? IPCC anyone?

        120

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          The IPCC flat put know theyre wrong…50 models and zero accuracy….

          120

        • #

          RADIAIION.F in ModelE comes to mind.

          20

        • #
          theRealUniverse

          The problem is that none of these researchers had bothered to actually confirm the model by doing the hard yards of manually calculating the results of at least one sample. Then they would have realised that the software was wrong!. Im sure this goes on allot. Some one wrote the ‘code’ and we know (those that write code) that all code can have errors, therefore rule 1. Check the result or garbage out is your result.
          Too many rely on ‘someone else’ to have done the work. Ever heard of cross checking? If the code is complex you have to check each part to make sure it WORKS according to the ‘rules’ or else!

          40

          • #
            theRealUniverse

            Actually this shows where research is at these days..lets plug it into someones code..she’ll be right mate!

            20

        • #
          Graeme#4

          The Technical Advisory Forum , when auditing the BOM’s Acorn-Sat V1 homogenisation code, found a rounding error that was applied at all stages in the temperature calculations. This has been rectified for V2, but nobody is talking about the potential impact of this coding error on earlier recorded temperatures.

          20

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      When it says 97%.

      30

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Well what do you expect from psychology :D . when I was undergrad psychology students were always those people that ‘played with rats’.

      30

    • #

      Remember, these are people who are supposed to be the experts on human cognitive bias. If they can’t even see their own bias, what chance does a climate scientist…

      60

      • #
        John PAK

        To be fair the science of psychology is on a different plain to chemistry or physics. If 4 chemists look at a water electrolysis issue you are likely to get 4 similar assessments but 4 psychological types assessed Martin Bryant (of Port Arthur infamy) and we were delivered 4 completely different “diagnoses”.

        10

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Sixty years ago we regularly had the peak summer period of about 10 days in a row when temperatures were between 100 and 107°C.
    That hasn’t happened in a long while.
    That’s sixty miles north of Sydney as the crow flies an half a mile from the ocean.

    So much for global warming.

    We have, however, had unprecedented bush fires caused by the failure of National Sparks and Wildfires to “maintain” the local environment.

    KK

    240

    • #

      Indeed, I can remember long, sweltering, days as a kid in Melbourne that were exactly the same. School never shut down because of the heat and there was no air conditioning. The summer holidays were sometimes spent seeing how far we could run down a scalding footpath after wetting our feet.

      And before this global warming crap gathered steam, in the 80s Victoria was known as the soggy state with wet winters and mild summers. NSW based news programs loved to always point out how wet and cold it was in Victoria. We’ve had a few hot summers, but last summer it was so mild in South Gippsland that there was no need to run an air conditioner at all.

      And yes, no one wants to talk about the elephant in the room, the lack of forest management that gives rise to big fires no matter what the climate or weather. State governments can do nothing and simply blame climate change.

      90

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        More climate madness….

        https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/05/08/austerity-forever/

        “Austerity forever

        “The Net Zero climate policy would negatively impact on so much of our lives.

        “”Last week, the UK’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) released its Net Zero report, calling for the UK to cut its CO2 emissions to ‘net zero’ by 2050. Going further than its February report advising that no newly built home should be connected to the gas supply, it recommends political interventions that intrude on all areas of private and productive life, from diet to transport. Among other things, it calls on the government to reduce the consumption of meat, to find ways to ‘reduce demand’ for travel, especially flight, and to limit the amount of energy consumed in homes and businesses.

        “While the report is big on headlines, it is woefully short on detail. Rather than an explanation of how its CO2 target can be delivered, it is more like a manifesto for radical transformation of our lives, lifestyles and economy – although there is no intention to test this manifesto at the ballot box.

        “If the current and future governments go ahead with the CCC’s recommendations – which seems likely – no area of our lives will be left unaltered. The report reflects the extent to which politics and the relationship between people and the government has completely shifted over the past few decades. Millions of people will have to bear the burden of the proposals, but the notion that they can have any choice in this proposed reorganisation of society is completely absent. The democratic contest between competing ideological perspectives on how productive society should be organised (if at all) has been abolished and replaced with spreadsheets that will determine what you may eat, how far you may travel and by what means, and how warm your home may be.

        “The dearth of technical detail in the manifesto tells us that its political ambition is put before its feasibility, while the public’s needs barely get a look-in. Take, for instance, the CCC’s ambition of eliminating the entire fleet of Britain’s 38million fossil-fuel powered vehicles and replacing them with electric cars. Britain’s annual sale of 2.3million new and eight million second-hand cars will magically achieve that goal within just 15 years, according to the logic of the report (typically, it gives neither of these figures). But radically new battery technologies are needed both to substantially lower the price of running an electric car, and to extend the life of electric cars so as to create a second-hand market for them. Unless this technology materialises, this projection is a fantasy.

        “But as far as environmentalists are concerned, every one of those 38million cars on the road was bought and is used in callous disregard for the planet. In reality, of course, motoring is an economic necessity for millions of people, the majority of whom will be priced off the roads and on to public transport, which is increasingly costly and whose coverage is poor in most parts of the country, if the CCC’s pipe dream does not materialise.

        40

        • #
          theRealUniverse

          Net zero…Net zero…Net zero…Net zero…endless gook. NO CO2 target can be delivered. End of story. Nature wont allow it!
          If they dont understand they are ignorant fools. If they know they are planning the ‘agenda’ that will try to end hydrocarbon fuel use.
          Only one result, no modern industrial society. AND it just wont happen.

          40

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            The other less mentioned bit – is that to end industrialized society, either humanity accepts it ( in which case the Elite will welcome them with open arms ) or they wont ( the most likely prospect ) in ehich case the Elite may trigger a large war/other event to reduce population significantly.

            None of this makes sense – unless you view it through the lens of the Elite being occultists who believe they are protecting thier mythical earth-goddess called “gaia” by reducting humanity’s impact on the earth.

            I suspect that as humanity hasnt ( sensibly ) accepted the Elites “invitation” to lower its energy use, now they are going to force humanity to do so.

            I expect in due course humanity will react and wind up a-la French Revolution, and go after the Elite. I abhor violence, and do not condone nor advocate such behaviour, I do understand people though.

            80

            • #
              theRealUniverse

              The other part is of course (admitted by them) that they want the developing countries to not develop at all, have NO reliable power or energy supply, maybe give them a few useless solar and wind farms.

              30

            • #
              Greg in NZ

              Steve, funny you should mention “a-la French Revolution“. Posted this link last week concerning historical bad crop years and the ensuing turmoil, for example: “One of the events leading to the French Revolution was referred to as the ‘The Great Fear’”.

              https://cropwatch.unl.edu/2017/has-ergot-altered-events-world-history

              “Historian Mary K. Matossian argued that one of the causes of the Great Fear was consumption of grain contaminated with the ergot fungus. In years of good harvests, grain contaminated with ergot was discarded, but when the harvest was poor, there was little other option for food. Thus, a severe ergot epidemic may have affected the mental state of French peasants, thereby contributing to the French revolution in 1789″. Yes, there were legion other reasons for uprising against the status quo, yet tainted water and contaminated food has caused humanity to go mad/insane on numerous occasions.

              As we know, vast swathes of the northern hemi’s grain/corn/soy-growing areas this year had a late, wet, cool summer followed by an early, snowy, cold autumn/Fall. How is ergot’s fungal pathogen, Claviceps purpurea, caused? “The plant disease is favored by severely cold winters followed by a cool, wet growing season”, followed by another severely cold winter, ie. 2019/2020.

              The above article was produced by the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln. The dreaded 3 Cs (CCC) and the term ‘AGW’ do not appear anywhere in the article, so they must be legit. The rest of the site is concerned with assisting farmers & growers (from the mighty state of Nebraska) so they may be one of those rare tertiary ‘educators’ who do their science the old-school way – properly, thoroughly, beneficially.

              Looking at the last 7 days’ observed/recorded snowfall/temp map for the whole planet, both North America and Russia/Siberia have skipped autumn and gone straight into winter. We think the Nutters are nutty now – wait till they sink their teeth into that diseased food and watch the madhouse go totally nut-burgers. Good luck everyone!

              https://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/globalrot?over=none&symbols=snow&type=snow.last7days

              40

        • #
          Hasbeen

          The latest UK select committee report stated that private vehicle ownership is not compatible electric with the desired decarbonisation of society. Electric cars will in no way allow the objective.

          They want us all out of our cars.

          50

          • #
            theRealUniverse

            Yes, we know what their dastardly little plan is…OK then, heres a 100 million (hydrocarbon powered) cars to dispose of..thats really great for the environment. Bet they didnt think of that.

            20

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      60 miles?

      For a very long time I have been amazed how younger generations can handle my mixed measures. But I have encountered in recent times a few who don’t know what a mile is.

      Mind you, the only thing wrong with the metric system is that we ever had another.

      But it has been a very long time since I last heard anybody mention pounds, shillings and pence, which went decimal at about the same time.

      60

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Hi Ted, the only reason I used miles, sea travel up the coast, was that I could remember the temperatures of that time in Fahrenheit and couldn’t be bothered converting to C.

        20

        • #
          theRealUniverse

          I dont know why the USA doesnt drop the use of Friggingheight, the useless temperature scale, that NO other country uses. Even engineers and scientists in the US use Centigrade. Converted for public consumption. A friend of mine I stayed with many years ago in the US said Americans will never be metric as they cant understand it.

          21

          • #
            Mark D.

            Well that chimp isn’t a carpenter is she!

            Degree values that are almost half the resolution come to mind and useless? That is simply ignorant. Obviously ignorant.

            10

      • #
        Brian

        The US still uses miles, feet and inches which causes some conversion problems for their engineers and scientists. NASA lost a very expensive Mars Polar Orbiter due to a mix-up between imperial and metric calculations. But the nautical mile which remains the basis for air and maritime measurements is alive and well. It is sensibly defined as one minute of latitude which is a stable reference regardless of global position. The definition for Celsius being the range between freezing of water and boiling divided by 100 (centi-grade) is air pressure dependent with the temperature of the boiling point of water changing with altitude and air pressure fluctuations even at sea level. Never mind. Sub contract the BOM and with a bit of homogenization I am sure they can modify to provide a time based increase in celsius to enhance the historic perception of global warming.

        40

      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        G’day Ted,
        In the old days there used to be small ships carrying coal from Newcastle to the power plants in Sydney, a trip of 60 nautical miles. Those ships were called “60 milers”. I was never sure if that was accurate for those which started in Newcastle port or from Catherine Hill Bay. Or perhaps only accurate to a country mile.

        Cheers
        Dave B

        10

        • #
          Geoff Sherrington

          David,
          Just for interest.
          A colleague was at the forefront of using ultrasound to detect cracks in railway lines before they became disasters. His computers on board the carriages were programmed to cause a squirt of paint on to the cracked line and also to log the location as the distance in metres and tenths from a central reference point.
          He discovered that this logging was complicated, because the Victorian rail system (as one example) had historically used 3 different, formal definitions of the Standard Mile.
          But then, the various States chose to use sojedifferent rail gauges from the start, like 3’6 1/2″, 4’8″, 5’2″ and the narrow sugar train track whose feet and inches I forget.
          Geoff S

          00

    • #
      ivan

      KK, you say temperatures were between 100 and 107°C.

      Are you sure of that? 100°C is boiling water. I think you mean 100 and 107 °F

      30

    • #
      Chad

      Sixty years ago we regularly had the peak summer period of about 10 days in a row when temperatures were between 100 and 107°C.

      ??”.and you survived ?

      20

    • #
      BoyfromTottenham

      KK – and don’t forget to mention the causes of bushfires – Human activity, Lightning, Wind. Not much mention of CO2 causing bushfires.

      10

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Human “inactivity” is the major cause of upping fire intensity.

        It makes me sick to think that this may be done deliberately to increase fire damage which can be attributed to Global Warming.

        KK

        00

  • #
    Lance

    Keith: Methinks you meant 100 – 107 F or 38 to 42 C.

    50

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      Sorry.
      Of course Lance, thanks for the correction.

      All the time I was thinking F and must have relaxed at the last minute.

      We just don’t get that same intensity now.

      KK

      60

  • #
    Kalm Keith

    Strongly suspect that the experimental design is indicative of the problem being examined.

    Perhaps if the experimental design had been more rigorous there would have been more cohesion in the blind analyses.

    This experiment may be closely aligned with the science of Global Warming.

    Psychology can be a very rigorous science but only when there is sensible experimental design.

    KK

    60

  • #
    Yonniestone

    This study was done with Phrenology years ago, 100% concluded it was all in their head……

    110

  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    What are we teaching at universities?

    As near as I can tell from the visible results, they are teaching that reality is not real, that truth is created by social agreement, that disagreement destroys truth and thus cannot be permitted, that accusations are evidence of guilt, that there is no presumption of innocence, and that proof is not possible beyond consensus of the cherry picked few.

    Further, if you change the name of a thing, the thing changes to match the thing. If you change the definition of a word, the thing the word referred to changes to match the new definition. Because of all of this, they can never be proven wrong so they have the right and duty to destroy the character, lives, and livelihood of anyone who disagrees – by any means necessary.

    In other words, Post Modernism gone mad.

    190

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      Oops: “the thing changes to match the name”.

      50

    • #
      David Wojick

      Regarding what is being taught, I just looked up the definition of “global warming.” Both the dictionary def provided by Google and the def provided by NASA include that GW is caused by humans.

      Natural warming is excluded by definition! No wonder people are confused.

      200

    • #
      Kalm Keith

      A great outline Lionell.

      30

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I was at a university related function last night, first one in a long time.

      What struck me was how rabidly left wing it all was, but also aggressive to boot.

      But I guess if all your funding is based on propogating the CAGW lie, and knowing how universities now are basically dictatorships, I
      guess its not unexpected.

      The “we have Gurgle, and therefore know everything” flaccid mindset also plays into this as well. Ironically it was science related, but science by iron fist……

      100

  • #

    In 1972 I went on a hitch-hiking adventure up the coast during a fortnight’s holiday. What I remember best is getting a ride from a professor of agricultural science and his missus. The prof told me a joke.

    Two soldiers were standing below the cross. One said: “Do you realise we’ve just killed mankind’s greatest teacher?” The other Roman replied: “Maybe…but what did he ever publish?”

    The great problem with academia, then as now, was the career pressure and invented need to publish. Science will be science when its practitioners are free to say “I dunno” and free to observe without forcing results. It’s a common stunt with some GeeUppers who pop in here, challenging commenters to publish as a way of tricking them to silence.

    Do not publish and do not submit some infernal “paper” unless there is something you actually know or have observed which warrants exposition and explanation at length. Don’t do it because it’s a path to a doctorate, because those now fall out of cornflake packets. Just tell us what you know and what you think, making a clear distinction between knowing and thinking. I’d rather live with rough edges on something substantial than a smooth product that’s flimsy.

    And remember: there are no good statistics, just less bad statistics.

    250

    • #
    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yeah and im the first to say “I dunno” but will verbally rip into anyone who attempts to force me into toeing a line thats complete BS and/or unfair.

      Academics need to give these slobs a verbal clip behind the ear and tell them to get lost. Untill you stand up to thugs and bullies, they will keep doing it.

      60

    • #
      Greg Cavanagh

      It is said that 10 years in an industry is equivalent to a degree in that industry. There are caveats to be said, but I mostly agree.

      There are many brilliantly skilled people around who well understand what they are doing, and they’ve never published anything commercially.

      I agree, that publication requirement is just a ruse.

      110

    • #
      Michael262

      Oh dear, the attack on science continues from those who can’t supply evidence.
      The more your attempts fail, the more you say science as corrupt, is there a link ?.
      A brown thumb for you.

      07

      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Look out, “The Crash” is back.

        30

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          And don’t mention the brown thumb.

          30

        • #
          Michael262

          Do everything:

          Attack the scientific method
          Drag up new and exciting conspiracy theories
          Hold up irrelevant authorities who ‘outrank’ scientists.
          Cherry pick data.
          Ad hom attacks on scientists and children.

          BUT, don’t mention your failed evidence stuck in the S bend.

          05

          • #
            Kalm Keith

            Oh, the humanity.

            20

          • #
            Rob JM

            Strange, the other day I had an alarmist claim that falsification didn’t apply to climate science. And made up a conspiracy theory about how every denier is in the pay of big oil. He couldn’t even understand that an argument to authority is a violation of the impersonal nature of scientific ethics as per the Mertonian laws. In fact he claimed I was evil for even questioning proven science.
            Apparent the Royal Society are evil for having the moto Nullis in verba, which means
            “On no ones word.”

            20

          • #
            AndyG55

            “from those who can’t supply evidence”

            That would be YOU, little mickey

            Stop attacking science, and produce some evidence.

            00

  • #
    el gordo

    ‘McIntyre reached out to Michael Mann only to be informed that he did not have the data on hand. In fact, when asking another researcher, he was told nobody had ever asked for data in 28 years.

    ‘What McIntyre found (and what was denied him in the quest for accurate science) reverberated in the climate science community and eventually paved the way to “Climategate”.

    ‘He goes to show that if there truly is a consensus on the issue, there would be no need to hide and obfuscate data.’

    Anthony Watts (wuwt)

    130

  • #
    TdeF

    Since the 1970s, the creation of vast numbers of pseudo scientists has corrupted the whole field, the very concepts of science. Botany, zoology were joined by ecology and lots of made up fringe sciences. This was needed to accomodate huge numbers of people sent to university as a degree was a social right and meritocracy was oppression and entry standards had to go, so degrees had to be invented to accommodate people without the requisite skills let alone the ability for science. Vague interdisciplinary degrees were created just so people could get degrees. Science degrees by essay.

    Tim Flannery is a classic alleged scientist whose undergraduate degree was in English and his claim to tertiary skills in mathematics, physics, chemistry, geology, computer science, biochemistry are absolutely zero. But Professor Flannery has posed for decades as an all knowing ‘scientist’ able to give informed opinions on hot rock power generation (quite straightforward) and nuclear power (he is both for and against it). When in fact at best he calls himself a mammologist, a sort of ancient zoologist.

    Worse, they have corrupted what science is. Now it is the opinion of ‘scientists’, which means anyone with a degree from a science department. Just as anyone with a degree in Arts is an Artist. So we have ‘consensus’ which appears to override any degree of truth and ‘scientists say’ which can mean just about anything.

    That’s not science. Science is not the opinion of any one man. Or even a thousand scientists. It is what is proven and true and like criminal law, beyond the shadow of a doubt. Science builds only on absolutes, not guesses.

    That is Rational Science. In the new pseudo sciences, it is on the balance of probabilities, by a jury of peers or whatever everyone thinks. Where Rene Descartes based his science on absolutes of mathematics such as 2+2=4, in this new science 2+2=4 with an error of a standard deviation of +/-2 so 2+2 can mean anything from 2 to 6 with a probability of 64% and 0 to 8 covering 96% at a stretch. And with a 4% chance that 2+2 is below zero or above 8. Of course there are those who think addition itself is capitalist.

    In real science, there is almost no man made CO2 in the air. And a warmer water surface releases more CO2. Everything is measurable and simple science.

    In the intergovernmental socialist science of Climate Change, CO2 is a Greenhouse gas and therefore the only greenhouse gas which matters and CO2 and CO2 alone determines world temperature. And this is the fault of greedy capitalist Western democracies. So say all of them. 97% of the people who agree with this agree with it.

    So it must be true. Scientists say so.

    170

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      In December 1986 the Hawke government appointed Neville Wran to chairman of a new board of the CSIRO.

      They put their own brand of “political scientists” in charge of the real scientists. Shortly before the establishment of the IPCC.

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        TdeF

        Science needed to be controlled by politicians. And the internet, so the NBN. And electrical power, so the National Grid.

        Religions too, like the current religious orthodoxy of LGBTIWTF and the rights of transsexuals and people to identify as chipmunks if they like and make up their own genders, races.

        Leading Democratic contender for US President, Elizabeth Warren decided that Cherokees get all the privileges, so she remembered herself into Law School and then Harvard as a Cherokee and a person of ‘colour’ with her blonder hair and blue eyes. This is despite her family history as the enemy of the Cherokees on the trail of tears and the illegal occupiers of stolen Cherokee lands. So the oppressor identifies as the victim. Simple reversal. Truth means nothing in politics. Nor does it mean much in science either now that politicians determine physics and the pope is a communist.

        For those who adore Socialism, I have to note that not only were the Fascists Socialist and the NAZIs were the National Socialists Workers Party, Stalin was head of the USSR, the United Soviet Socialist Republic. Now we have Socialist Science, determined by the openly Socialist UN/EU. No wonder the socialists who run our universities do not want students learning European history. It’s the history of the disaster which is socialism.

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          Greg in NZ

          TdeF, your post above (#10.1.1) was so dang concise I took a screenshot and may even print it out LARGE to hang on my wall. The last paragraph, beginning, “For those who adore Socialism” and ending with “history of the disaster which is socialism”, seems to be that which is missing from today’s learning institutions.

          Went back ‘to school’ in my 40s to learn/earn my first-ever degree, having travelled the world working in all sorts of industries & businesses, finally realising what I was good at (something which both parents & school teachers said I’d never make a living out of, ie. get a REAL job and do your hobbies on the weekend kind-of-thing) was what I’d done all my life yet lacked the finishing touches, the fine-tuning if you will, of knowledge/skills acquired over decades of hard work.

          The younger students in my class were, well, young. Fresh out of high-school or maybe a year or two’s work, their world-view was 100% digital-based, anything pre-1989 was The Dark Ages, life was a party, damn the torpedoes and full steam ahead! Naturally, we lost a few in the first year and a few more in the second, as the realities of that big old nasty world out there took its toll. If only they’d learned a little history at school, or perhaps from their parents, they may have developed that (rare) quality called ‘perspective’. But hey, I’m simply a happy grumpy old man, toot! :-)

          10

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      Graeme No.3

      TdeF:

      You forshadowed my intended bit. Yes, the rush to get as many people as possible to have a degree has had adverse consequences. Back in the dark ages when I went to Uni you were expected to be in the ‘top’ 10% of intelligence to do a degree, although some determined types just below that level made it in and did better because they were willing to work at it. Now they are letting in people way below that level, down to just above 50% for Climate Science, and hordes of people are rushing to spend 3 or more years lazing around University and coming out with a ticket expecting a job for life sitting behind a computer screen in an air-conditioned office.
      The result has been a superfluity of people qualified for nothing. And in order to keep this system going Universities have expanded, some more teaching staff added, many more “managers” added, and more public bureaucrats added to “oversee” the mess and extra cost.
      The results of this survey seem to show that trimming the Education Gulag down by two thirds would result in a better system. I suggest that the Federal Government should test this approach at a few selected Universities, James Cook in particular comes to mind.

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    • #

      So it must be true. Scientists say so

      You are clearly testing the inference recognition abilities of the commenters here. So far none of those who read your first seven paragraphs twigged that none of them contain any evidence to back up the rhetoric. You fooled them into believing what you wrote to be true because you said so.

      Nice twist on the topic.

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      • #
        Mark D.

        I’m sure I’d comply with a counter opinion if I only knew WTF “twigged” meant. I’m sure your use of a term with unknown meaning to half the readers here was racist by intent.

        Thanks.

        01

        • #
          Mark D.

          Comply = reply

          Don’t know where that came form.

          10

        • #
          Kalm Keith

          Twigged in Australia.

          “Cottoned on” elsewhere.

          10

          • #

            well this got me curious. Maybe more common in Australia but the OED says in use in England since before English colonial settlement of Australia.

            https://www.lexico.com/en/definition/twig

            clicking on the example sentences is interesting. Some of them look to be quotes extracted from the news.

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              Kalm Keith

              Just kidding.

              Was going to say that “cottoned on” was from the deep South, Tasmania, but thought it might be seen as racist.

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          • #
            Environment Skeptic

            CO2 is a greenhouse gas used in greenhouses used to feed plants. So it really is a greenhouse gas.

            Elsewhere, CO2 creates greenhouses spontaneously in the minds of those affected.

            00

        • #
          sophocles

          To Mark D:
          twig: v (colloq):
          1. v.t Look at, observe, perceive, recognize. M18
          2. v.t Understand, grasp the meaning or nature of something. E19

          (SOED 4th ed.1993. V2 p3434.)
          also twigging, twigged

          your use of a term with unknown meaning to half the readers

          I didn’t realize half the readers of this blog were American.

          I’ve checked all five different editions of my Oxford English Dictionaries and they all have the above meaning for twig. So there’s your problem Mark — upgrade your reference book to a real dictionary! :-)

          10

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        theRealUniverse

        ‘You are clearly testing the inference recognition abilities of the commenters here’.. maybe you, Leafy fall into that category yourself.

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        AndyG55

        ‘none of them contain any evidence to back up the rhetoric”

        Must have thought it was GA or PF post !!

        10

      • #
        Michael262

        What’s this “intergovernmental socialist science” ??, pleeeze explayyyn ?.
        Never let the facts get in the way of a good conspiracy.

        02

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      ‘so degrees had to be invented to accommodate people without the requisite skills let alone the ability for science.’ very good point TdeF.
      Gobbledy gook degrees of nothingness..
      Not only that if they do have to analyse something they are clueless. If they get past the first goal they are ‘guided’ into some research by their supervisors and into narrow little buckets. None of this is science. Im saddened that the real physicists are now mostly all gone, who now will stand up to this crap..Then we have so called ‘experts’ like Astrophysicist Cox (supporter of a failed theory) raving on about CO2 evils holding up fake temperature graphs. I know what R P Feynman would have said about it, were he still around. (he’d be 101 this year!)

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    • #
      Ian Hill

      In the new pseudo sciences, it is on the balance of probabilities, by a jury of peers or whatever everyone thinks.

      Insurance companies love the phrase “on the balance of probabilities” and boy, do they get it wrong!!

      20

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    pat

    o/t but best to post here (as well as on previous thread).
    lengthy, detailed, read all:

    15 Oct: AliceSpringsNews: Blackout: Managers must go, says union source
    By ERWIN CHLANDA
    The Electrical Trades Union (ETU) wants two senior Territory Generation managers to get the sack following the system black in Alice Springs on Sunday, according to a union source…

    So, TGen has had well over three years to become accustomed to these news assets – how come the debacle on Sunday?…
    “The day was saved by operations and maintenance personnel based at the Ron Goodin Power Station,” says the source – not the new generators, but in the old powerhouse slated for closure years ago.
    “Staff were called in to repair equipment failing due to TGen senior management deciding not to perform critical maintenance tasks which have been getting highlighted for months in some cases.”
    The expensive Jenbachers, all the way from Austria, are currently last in line to be fired up although the contract entered by Mr Giles, and taken over by the Gunner Government, had “a date for commercial operation of 2017”.

    The new engines are now under a 30% output restriction and running in a “block load mode” meaning they are only able to run at a set output and will not respond to load changes.
    Previously the engines had been touted as being capable of short-term performance variations, of fast adaption to demand changes. This is proving to not be the case…

    BESS, the battery (at left) introduced with fanfare in June last year, kept the town going for less than a minute, says the source…

    FROM COMMENTS:
    Simon Kelly Posted October 15, 2019 at 10:41 pm
    I agree with Ted that the most annoying thing about the blackout was the failure of PWA or the ABC to provide us with any information about it…READ ALL

    excerpt from COMMENT #4:
    And where was the ABC? In the bushfire season the ABC, through heroes like Derek Guille and Trevor Chappell, stays at the post, advising residents of the graphic detail of what’s happening.
    Not a mention of the whys and wherefores of our power outage.
    Busy creating the latest “Thingy”?…
    https://www.alicespringsnews.com.au/2019/10/15/blackout-managers-must-go-says-union-source/

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    pat

    CAGW begins at 36min52sec:

    AUDIO: 54min07sec: 15 Oct: ABC Big Ideas: Paul Barclay: Craig Foster on sport and human rights
    SBS soccer commentator Craig Foster believes that sport has the power to change the world.
    Craig was part of the successful campaign to rescue refugee footballer Hakeem al-Araibi.
    Now he wants to see a human rights code implemented in all aspects of professional sport.
    Sport and human rights: can sport change the world? recorded 17 September 2019 RMIT Annual Higinbotham Lecture
    https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/craig-foster-on-sport-and-human-rights/11566860

    FOSTER WELCOMES COMMITTMENT BY FIFA TO THE UN SPORTS FOR CLIMATE ACTION FRAMEWORK, ALONG WITH UEFA, WORLD SURF LEAGUE, TENNIS AUSTRALIA, IOC, NBA, AND 47 OTHER SPORTING ORGS…
    speaks of visiting Bangalore (flying). mentions former Human Rights Commission President and now Asst Secretary-General of the UN, Gillian Triggs, told him recently human rights needs sports.

    ends with 2 question Q&A. second question is about money in sport – Foster skirts around the issue.

    first question by RMIT’S Graduate School of Business and Law Professor, ANTHONY FORSYTH: do you think Australia’s sportspeople & athletes are as up to the challenge, as we see overseas? (OF COURSE, IT’S US ONLY THAT NEEDS TO WORK ON HUMAN RIGHTS) Forsyth says Craig is visiting US the following week (more flying) & will talk to Colin Kaepernick and Megan Rapinoe.

    18 Sept: RMIT: Sports stars have a right, and a responsibility, to advocate for social equality
    Gender equality and climate action were also among Craig Foster’s key focuses…
    He welcomed the commitment by FIFA to the UN Sport for Climate Action Framework and invited the football community to join their global family in advocating for change as both an aspirational target for the nation, and expressed concern at the increased displacement of people.
    “The unifying power of football is unparalleled and, as the global game, we are uniquely impacted,” Foster said.
    “It is an opportunity to participate in an industry transformation that can underwrite both the wellbeing of the planet, and prosperity of the nation for our kids and their kids, but the increasing issue of climate migration with more than 17 million last year alone is deeply worrying, given what we see in the treatment of displaced people globally today.”

    Foster said when it came to sports and human rights, Australia was “still stretching behind the blocks, going through our preliminary warm-up exercises when the gun has already blown and the race is well and truly on” and called for an Australian Sport and Rights Institute…
    https://www.rmit.edu.au/news/all-news/2019/sep/higinbotham-lecture

    15 Oct: CBS: Protesters burn and trample LeBron James jerseys in Hong Kong
    James’ standing among basketball fans in Hong Kong took a hit over his recent comments suggesting that free speech can have negative consequences.
    The protesters chanted support for Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey, who tweeted in support of their struggle on October 4, infuriating authorities in China. What the crowd of approximately 200 people chanted about James wasn’t printable.
    “People are angry,” said James Lo, a web designer who runs a Hong Kong basketball fan page on Facebook…
    “Students, they come out like every weekend. They’ve got tear-gassed and then they got gun-shot, like every weekend. Police beating students and then innocent people, like every day. And then (James) just comes up with something (like) that. We just can’t accept that,” Lo said…
    Others said James’ comments made it seem that he’s more worried about money than people…

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    • #

      Thanks for this pat, oh thank you so much.

      Soccer as the ideas platform for the future, using Soccer players to influence everyone else.

      What a truly wonderful idea.

      I immediately was taken back to a time when this was done before, and just how successful it really was.

      In fact, the game was actually recorded for posterity.

      They just show the four minutes of highlights of this truly wonderful game.

      This is an absolute classic.

      Please oh please watch this.

      Germany vs Greece International Philosophy FINAL

      Tony.

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        Graeme No.3

        Nice one Tony, especially the sly dig against the Germans for including a ring-in.

        30

        • #

          That would be Franz Beckenbauer, and when I first watched the sketch back in 73, I was with a good friend, John, who was a primary school teacher, when men could actually do that. I knew Franz was the ring in, but near the end I questioned whether Karl Marx was also a ring in, but John told me that Marx actually WAS a German philosopher.

          Tony.

          20

      • #
        Greg in NZ

        “ALONG WITH… WORLD SURF LEAGUE” ? ? ?

        A few years back, a lot of Aussie surfers were criticising Slater for teaming up with squillionaire (inherited) Dirk Ziff – yep, real name, not a cartoon character – who also happened to be the money behind a huge mine (and dam?) in QLD. They were grieving the imminent death of the Great Barrier Reef because of… because of something. Ziff purchased the World Surf League after his wife had a surf lesson in Hawai’i: she got the buzz, got hubby into it, he yelled Oy Vey! and bought the whole kit and kaboodle (pro surfing circuit) for his wife’s birthday present.

        The World’s Greatest [professional] Surfer, as Slater is sometimes called, has got himself into trouble before with the more green-tinged seaweeds of the world as he denies refuses to say if he ‘believes’ in cAGW/CCC/BS. Good to see he keeps his religion and politics separate. Below is an attempt at humour by one such greenie who also suffers from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Note the date of publication: April 1, 2016.

        https://www.theinertia.com/surf/kelly-slater-just-bought-the-wsl-and-added-his-wavepool-to-the-tour/

        10

  • #
    Rupert Ashford

    Were they paid for the work? I’m sure if they were paid and promised more bucks on the back of that, they would have come up with exactly the conclusion they were told upfront to come to…;-)

    11

  • #
    Earl

    To all those teachers I am about to offend, and I am one, sorry but…
    Some years ago, when I was completing my Dip. Ed. (TAFE) at Melbourne Uni, some wag said,
    Those who can, do.
    Those who can’t, teach.
    Those who can’t teach, teach teachers.
    I think that there has been a lot of teacher teaching in the last 20/30 years.

    50

  • #
    el gordo

    BoM admits drought not caused by global warming.

    ‘The strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole of the last two decades is limiting rainfall in Australia this spring.

    ‘The last three months have collectively been the driest on record for some areas of southern and eastern Australia. While many factors influence day-to-day weather systems, this prolonged dry period has been underpinned by something called a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).’

    Weatherzone

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      And India has just had the wettest monsoon in 20 years.**
      A connection between the Monsoon and the Southern Oscillation (el niño/ niña) was discovered by Sir Gilbert Walker in 1928, and progress in working out what causes the best monsoon has been very slow. The Indian Ocean Dipole discovery was one result, but it doesn’t seem to have anything to do with the level of CO2.

      ** Good news for the over one billion Indians dependant on agriculture.

      30

  • #
    theRealUniverse

    ‘BoM admits drought not caused by global warming.’ of course..but I suspect that there are ‘people’ and ‘people’ in the BoM, those that do know reality, and those that push the mantra mostly from the top I suspect. Any realists in teh BoM would have to publish with cautious words or else.

    30

  • #
    theRealUniverse

    Just listening to the Press club address by the Getup pratt. Hidden in his words are brownshirt policies. Noone must criticize us.
    “A war over climate” that says what they want..a WAR!
    Im turning it off now before I throw up…

    40

    • #
      PeterS

      If war is what they really want then war is what they will get once the silent majority no longer remains silent. If only our aloof politicians had the insight we could avoid the ensuring havoc that will hit us all.

      10

  • #
    pat

    truly shameful:

    10 Oct: BBC Future: The harm from worrying about climate change
    By Christine Ro
    (Caroline Hickman, psychotherapist and researcher, Bath University) has counselled parents who fantasise about killing their children, out of fear of the climate-ravaged future. But she calmly points out that history is rife with examples of parents preparing to end their children’s lives in order to protect them. “If we disallow those feelings, we’re just driving them back into the unconscious,” Hickman argues…

    Climate Emotions
    This article is part of our Climate Emotions series. Climate change is harming the planet, and it may be harming our mental health too.
    From fear and anxiety to hope and healing, this series examines our complex responses to climate change, and how those responses will shape our ability to deal with the environmental challenge we face.
    (BELOW)
    11 Sept: Climate Emotions: How climate change affects mental health
    by Martha Henriques
    At first, this might seem a little indulgent. “The world is burning, and you want to talk about feelings?” some may ask.
    But as this new BBC Future series explores, the two sides – our emotional responses to climate change and action to stop it – go hand in hand. By dismissing one, it’s hard to grasp the other.
    In Climate Emotions, we hear from writers who have experienced a range of responses. They ask whether there are ways to heal the negative emotions and mental health challenges that can accompany climate breakdown…
    Climate Emotions is a new series curated and edited by Martha Henriques. She is @Martha_Rosamund on Twitter.

    10 Sept: Why ‘flight shame’ is making people swap planes for trains
    by Jocelyn Timperley (Carbon Brief, ex-Business Green)
    https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191010-how-to-beat-anxiety-about-climate-change-and-eco-awareness

    re the writers:

    InternationalInstituteForEnvironment & Development: Christine Ro
    Before IIED: Work with UN agencies, development consultancies, and rural development NGOs
    Education: MPhil in Development Studies, University of Oxford; BA in English and Sociology, University of California, Berkeley

    Twitter: Martha Henriques: Writing and editing features at @BBCFuture. Formerly freelance for @BBCEarth, @Mosaicscience, @VICE & others. TV guest on @BBCWorld, @Channel4News & more
    https://twitter.com/martha_rosamund?lang=en

    Mosaic: About Martha Henriques
    She studied natural sciences at the University of Cambridge and then needed to debrief, so she stayed on for a Master’s in the history and philosophy of science, graduating in 2013.
    Since then, her news stories, features and podcasts have appeared on BBC Earth, BBC Britain, Chemistry World, The Naked Scientists and Australian Broadcasting Corporation services, among others…

    LinkedIn: Jocelyn Timperley: I am now freelance, and previously worked as a staff journalist at Carbon Brief and BusinessGreen. I also have a science journalism MA from City University London and undergrad masters in environmental chemistry from the Uni of Edinburgh.

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  • #
    AndyG55

    It “cognitive psychology”.

    Anyone who thinks there is only THEIR interpretation is better than anyone else’s….

    or that a set of outcomes can’t infer something different from what “they” say it does..

    is just showing their arrogance.

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      destroyer D69

      THE “CONCENSUS EFFECT”" The unshakeable declaration that if the majority of opinions in the room at any given time are in agreement then the proposal is in fact an absolute truth despite any evidence to the contrary.

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    Zane

    Saw a prominently displayed children’s book in the window of the local bookstore today, ” We Are All Greta… How to become a climate activist and Save the World. ”

    This is the propaganda we are up against.

    20

  • #
    pat

    13 Oct: TimesOfIndia: Sorry Greta, India needs more coal to power growth
    by Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar (consulting editor of The Economic Times. He has frequently been a consultant to the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. A popular columnist and TV commentator, Swami has been called “India’s leading economic journalist” by Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution. “Swaminomics” has been appearing as a weekly column in The Times of India since 1990)

    She(Greta) will be appalled by the plea of India’s coal secretary, Subhash Chandra Garg, that India must urgently expand its coal production from 600 million tonnes a year to a billion tonnes per year to meet basic energy needs. Yet Garg is right…
    India is a lower middle income country. Sweden is among the richest. Despite the green sermons, Sweden’s annual per capita carbon emissions are 4.5 metric tonnes, higher than India (1.7 metric tonnes), Pakistan (0.9 metric tonnes) or Bangladesh (0.5 metric tonnes). South Asians can double their carbon emissions without matching Sweden’s prodigality…

    Widespread activist attempts to stop all oil and coal production are hypocritical. A total switch to solar and wind energy is impossible since these are produced only intermittently when the sun shines and wind blows, maybe 25% of the year on an average. For the rest of the time, India needs coal-based electricity…
    https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/Swaminomics/sorry-greta-india-needs-more-coal-to-power-growth/

    20

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    pat

    14 Oct: Nature Climate Change: Acknowledging uncertainty impacts public acceptance of climate scientists’ predictions
    Authors: Lauren C. Howe, Bo MacInnis, Jon A. Krosnick, Ezra M. Markowitz & Robert Socolow
    Abstract
    Predictions about the effects of climate change cannot be made with complete certainty, so acknowledging uncertainty may increase trust in scientists and public acceptance of their messages. Here we show that this is true regarding expressions of uncertainty, unless they are also accompanied by acknowledgements of irreducible uncertainty…
    Thus, expressions of fully bounded uncertainty alone may enhance confidence in scientists and their assertions but not when the full extent of inevitable uncertainty is acknowledged…
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0587-5

    14 Oct: Nature Climate Change: News & Views: Climate uncertainty
    Authors: Emily H. Ho & David V. Budescu
    The consequences of global warming will be dire, but the full extent of these effects on society is unknown and includes uncertainties. Research now suggests that how scientists communicate about the uncertainty over such climate change impacts can influence the public’s trust and acceptance of this information…
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0606-6

    20

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    pat

    15 Oct: 7News: No choice but to invest in oil: Shell CEO
    by Ron Bousso and Dmitry Zhdannikov, AAP
    Royal Dutch Shell still sees abundant opportunity to make money from oil and gas in coming decades, even as investors and governments increase pressure on energy companies over climate change, its chief executive said.
    But Ben van Beurden expressed concern that some shareholders could abandon the world’s second-largest listed energy company due partly to what he called the “demonisation” of oil and gas and “unjustified” worries that its business model was unsustainable.
    Still, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted from Shell’s operations and the products it sells rose by 2.5 per cent between 2017 and 2018.

    A defiant van Beurden rejected a rising chorus from climate activists and parts of the investor community to transform radically the 112-year-old Anglo-Dutch company’s traditional business model.
    “Despite what a lot of activists say, it is entirely legitimate to invest in oil and gas because the world demands it,” van Beurden said in an interview with Reuters on Monday,
    “We have no choice” but to invest in long-life projects, he added…

    Shell plans to green-light more than 35 new oil and gas projects by 2025, according to an investor presentation from June.
    Oil and gas remain the backbone of profits for Shell, the largest listed company on London’s main FTSE index…
    https://7news.com.au/business/no-choice-but-to-invest-in-oil-shell-ceo-c-504571

    15 Oct: Reuters: France asks EDF to prepare to build 6 EPR reactors in 15 years -Le Monde
    by Matthieu Protard
    The French government has asked power utility EDF to prepare plans to construct six EPR nuclear reactors over the next 15 years, Le Monde newspaper said on its website on Monday.
    Quoting a letter sent by Environment Minister Elisabeth Borne and Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire to EDF’s chairman, Le Monde said the company would be required to build three pairs of EPR reactors on three sites…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-edf-nuclear-epr/france-asks-edf-to-prepare-to-build-6-epr-reactors-in-15-years-le-monde-idUSKBN1WT27T

    20

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    pat

    14 Oct: ClimateChangeNews: After 11 days of civil unrest, Ecuador reinstates fossil fuel subsidies
    Cuts to subsidies, imposed without an alternative, led to price rises, strife and, eventually, a government backdown
    By Lucy EJ Woods
    Fossil fuel subsidy cuts are supposed to help the environment, signalling an end to fossil fuel dominance, and the beginning of heavy investment in alternatives, while also saving taxpayers money…
    But the cut came without the backing of immediate renewable alternatives. 43% of Ecuador’s electricity comes from fossil fuels, 54% from hydro and 2% from other renewables…

    Like France’s gilet jaunes, who also began their protests because of regressive fuel policies, people took to the streets, roads were blockaded, airports closed, shops and schools shut their gates. The entire nation came to a sudden halt…
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/10/14/11-days-civil-unrest-ecuador-reinstates-fuel-subsidies/

    20

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    pat

    Third of biggest banks fail to sign up to climate initiative
    Financial Times – 14 Oct 2019
    Twenty-eight of the world’s largest banks have not signed up to a climate change initiative backed by Bank of England governor Mark Carney…

    13 Oct: Guardian: Top investment banks provide billions to expand fossil fuel industry
    Exclusive: analysis reveals lenders provided $700bn to expand sector since Paris climate pact
    by Patrick Greenfield
    The world’s largest investment banks have provided more than $700bn of financing for the fossil fuel companies most aggressively expanding in new coal, oil and gas projects since the Paris climate change agreement, figures show.
    The financing has been led by the Wall Street giant JPMorgan Chase, which has provided $75bn (£61bn) to companies expanding in sectors such as fracking and Arctic oil and gas exploration, according to the analysis.
    The New York bank is one of 33 powerful financial institutions to have provided an estimated total of $1.9tn to the fossil fuel sector between 2016 and 2018…

    Other top financiers of fossil fuel companies include Citigroup, Bank of America and Wells Fargo.
    Using Bloomberg financial data and publicly available company disclosures, the analysis was compiled exclusively for the Guardian by Rainforest Action Network, a US-based environmental organisation…
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/13/top-investment-banks-lending-billions-extract-fossil-fuels

    14 Oct: Reuters: India investing $60 billion gas grid to link up nation by 2024
    by Promit Mukherjee, Nidhi Verma
    Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan told reporters at India Energy Forum by Ceraweek that companies were investing $60 billion in the network and building new gas import facilities to link all states by mid-2024, when the government’s term ends.
    “I am not talking about potential investment. This number relates to the project that are under execution,” he said…

    India’s biggest gas utility Gail Ltd (GAIL.NS) has said it was close to completing the 2,660 km (1,660 miles) Urja Ganga pipeline project, connecting the eastern states of Bihar, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Odisha. The pipeline will have capacity for 16 million standard cubic meters per day (mscmd) of gas…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-india-gas/india-investing-60-billion-gas-grid-to-link-up-nation-by-2024-idUSKBN1WS0LM

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    pat

    bizarre. seems to be an attempt to not blame RE in any way whatsoever, or even higher electricity prices, for that matter!

    AUDIO: 3min: 16 Oct: ABC AM: Tens of thousands of homes disconnected for not paying electricity bills
    By Amy Bainbridge on AM
    New analysis of disconnections data over three years showed a number of rural and regional areas were struggling to keep the lights on, while pressure had eased in some metropolitan suburbs.
    Researchers said that, rather than just the cost of power bills, a range of factors contributed to people’s inability to keep their accounts in credit.
    Lower wages, an aging population, insufficient welfare payments, the drought and a lack of jobs were contributing to bill stress.
    Featured:
    Ron D’Arcy, Toongabbie resident
    Gavin Dufty, St Vincent de Paul Society
    Sarah McNamara, Australian Energy Council
    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/adelaide/programs/am/thousands-of-homes-disconnected-for-not-paying-electricity-bills/11606138

    following is lengthy, and eventually mentions coal, but still no mention of RE causing higher power bills etc. worth reading, if only for the tortured language:

    16 Oct: ABC: Regional households are struggling to pay power bills and it’s not just about energy prices
    By national consumer affairs reporter Amy Bainbridge and the Specialist Reporting Team’s Loretta Florance and Lucy Kent
    New analysis of disconnections data over three years showed a number of rural and regional areas were struggling to keep the lights on, while pressure had eased in some metropolitan suburbs.
    Researchers said rather than just the cost of power bills, a range of factors contributed to people’s inability to keep their accounts in credit.
    Lower wages — particularly in regional Australia — an aging population, insufficient welfare payments, the drought and a lack of jobs were contributing to bill stress.

    The data also showed an increase in disconnections in so-called fast-growing outer suburbs.
    The report found disconnections were happening despite industry intervention programs designed to help at-risk people get by…

    St Vincent de Paul commissioned researchers to map electricity disconnections across four states — NSW, Victoria, South Australia and south-east Queensland — from July 2015 to July 2018.
    “Regional and rural areas tend to have higher electricity costs simply because the poles and wires part of the bill is higher than the metro areas,” Gavin Dufty, from St Vincent de Paul Society, said.
    “On top of that, they tend to be older communities, they tend to have lower incomes and they also tend to have lower employment opportunities.
    “So you have income pressures, higher cost pressures … something’s got to give, and in these cases, it’s electricity getting disconnected.”

    More than 9 per cent of households in two major towns in the region, Churchill and Morwell, were disconnected between 2015 and 2018, according to the report’s data.
    Mr D’Arcy said when he moved into the area it was very reliant on coal, but the Hazelwood power station was shut down.
    “It affects the people who support that — the engineering firms that are repairing the belts and repairing the diggers, the food services who support those workers as well,” he said.
    “If people are reliant more and more on unemployment benefits, then the crime goes up as well, and we’ve seen that in a huge way, as well as drug use.”…
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-16/energy-disconnected-after-failing-to-pay-energy-bills-regional/11559858

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    pat

    read all:

    14 Oct: AFR: Don’t rush transmission overhaul for power grid, energy companies warn
    by Mark Ludlow
    The Australian Energy Market Commission’s radical reforms to shake up transmission systems for the electricity grid (LINK) should not be rushed, big energy companies and renewable operators have warned, saying these could clash with other changes.
    Although there is consensus on the need to shake up the National Electricity Market, which was built around traditional coal-fired power stations in central locations, there are growing fears the technically complex rules may not be ready to implement for the proposed 2022 start date.

    Australian Energy Council chief executive Sarah McNamara said the challenges of efficiently co-ordinating generation and transmission investment were substantial…

    The changes in how the grid operates have been driven by the rapid increase in solar and wind projects into the NEM, mostly in regional areas. The connection of these projects into the grid has been a headache for energy planners for years…

    The concerns come as Northern Territory Energy Minister Dale Wakefield commissioned an independent review into the system blackout in Alice Springs on Sunday.
    Power was cut to the city of 30,000 people for more than eight hours…

    An APPEA report to be released on Tuesday will show the natural gas industry contributed $55 billion to the Queensland economy over the past seven years.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/don-t-rush-transmission-overhaul-for-power-grid-energy-companies-warn-20191014-p530hj

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    Roy Hogue

    Inference my foot. It seems that the proper conclusion from this study is that a whole lot of guessing is going on. If the data is complete and accurate the conclusions of experts ought to come out close and if they don’t then it’s guessing or the field of expertise is too ill defined to be worth paying attention to.

    After all, it is cognitive psychology they were looking at.

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    Salome

    I thought to myself, well, what would you expect? After all, we are talking about psychology. Then I thought of that photo of the elderly, sick or injured polar bear and all the people who pointed to it and said that climate change is wiping the polar bears out.

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    C. Paul Barreira

    The original article may be read here.

    I have had no training in psychology and find the whole thing very confusing. Even the (presumably) straightforward statement of “experimental design” proved incomprehensible: my inadequacy, no question. One has, I expect, to be familiar with the terminology of the researchers in order to begin to grasp the experimental methods, resultant data and foundations of inference that make for the point of the exercise. it is not clear to me that the final argument (or conclusion) goes much beyond the immediate circle of people involved.

    What seems increasingly a non-sequitur, “Climate science”, appears little affected by this report from the University of Massachusetts Amherst. The quoted report from Science Daily included this paragraph:

    In the end, the UMass Amherst researchers “had a big reveal party” and gave participants the option of removing their responses or removing their names from the paper, but none did. Rotello comments, “I am so impressed that they were willing to put everything on the line, even though the results were not that good in some cases.” She and colleagues note that this shows a strong commitment to improving research quality among their peers.

    This is not the way of what passes as climate science wherein manipulating and hiding, when not actually destroying, the data is commonplace. The UMass Amherst researchers seem to have serious purposes in mind. The problems that emerge from their experiment appear to differ considerably from those afflicting other areas of science and the problems of replicability.

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    David

    I think there was a survey of researchers in which most researchers have decided that they will not report mistakes they find with other researchers (except if that person is producing some politically incorrect material). More than 90% of researchers take the view that they are not going to report mistakes on other researchers papers. Probably, this type of thinking helps avoid other researchers looking at their papers. In the United States, a Duke University researcher did research that generated almost $200 million of grants. Only when she embezzled $25,000 from the university were there any questions about her work. Nobody would report that they couldn’t replicate her work. Because of this look the other way attitude, nobody calls the researcher on obvious errors.

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