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Another socialist boom and bust in solar in Victoria

Solar Panels
Behold, the Victorian Govt are proving yet again that Soviet-style electricity management can crush lives, hopes and wallets. The free market is never as cruel and destructive as one run on “good intentions” or the desire to win virtue-signaling fashion parades.

The invisible hand of the market was replaced with Daniel Andrews whimsy. This might work if he was smarter than the collective brains of 5 million people. Apparently Andrews assumes serfs people don’t understand the true value of solar panels and the benefits of creating jobs in China, so he has mandated glorious subsidies in the hope of getting nice weather one day, and the desperate punters took them up in droves. The industry boomed. But now they’ve temporarily halted the free gifts, orders have disappeared as the free market returns to accurately valuing solar installations. So the workers are being sacked. The rebates will come back again in July, so business-owners somehow need to get a different income stream for two months, survive the turmoil, and then the golden gravy will run again.

As per usual ABC policy, no free market voices were harmed, interviewed or asked to provide comment:

Victorian solar company reeling after popular rebate scheme halted temporarily

An award-winning Victorian solar company has laid off just over half of its staff after the Victorian Government placed a temporary freeze on a solar panel rebate program.

The $1.3 billion solar homes package started last August and has been so popular that the rebates for this financial year have been fully subscribed.

Since the freeze on new applications came into effect, the work for solar installation companies like Sky Energy Systems of Melbourne has dried up.

The business’s directors, Sam Kent and Ross Howard, said they had no choice but to cut staff when customers started cancelling their orders.

Twenty-five people have been told to finish up work on Friday and another 15 staff could go in two weeks’ time.

Live by government handouts, die by government handouts. Oh the pain:

“Having no sales is like having no oxygen. You can’t breathe. There’s no business so it’s devastating,” Mr Kent said.

What’s a company that “follows a rebate” — another labor voter

As long as businesses are allowed to earn a living entirely dependent on government largess they are a form of “public servant”, a wing of big government with all the entitlement that doesn’t deserve and none of the obligations:

No sales, no business

A petition has been launched on the change.org website calling on the Victorian Government to reconsider the temporary rebate halt.

“Because consumers know that the rebate will return on July 1, they will be holding off making a purchase,” the petition said.

“For these small businesses to survive 15 weeks without sales is unlikely.”

Mr Kent said many other solar companies are based interstate, and use subcontractors in Victoria.

“They’ll disappear interstate until the rebates comeback. They are companies that are basically rebate-based so they follow the rebates,” Mr Kent said.

Making money in Australia increasingly means being a better lobbyist for government masters, not being a better producer of things Australians need or want.

h/t Dave B

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Rating: 9.8/10 (90 votes cast)
Another socialist boom and bust in solar in Victoria, 9.8 out of 10 based on 90 ratings

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194 comments to Another socialist boom and bust in solar in Victoria

  • #

    “As long as governments are allowed to earn a living” – shouldn’t that be businesses?
    and “increasing” should be “increasingly”. These errors are the result of the subject matter – the faulty logic of it all is contagious.

    [Thanks Martin. I need a proof reader! - Jo]

    90

    • #

      This Labor experiment has not been implemented fairly. Those who can afford solar panels via a subsidy and then receive a subsidy on top of that are leeching off the backs of the workers who can’t afford such luxuries. This excess and unearned wealth should be redistributed to the more deserving. Why vote for this capitalist Labor government?

      341

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        bemused:

        The Labor party has lost interest in the workers. They are appealing to the inner city, green millennials.

        321

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          My uncle escaped communist hungary as a child. This is another cautionary tale…..

          https://fee.org/articles/i-grew-up-in-a-communist-system-here-s-what-americans-don-t-understand-about-freedom/

          “Individual freedom can only exist in the context of free-market capitalism. Personal freedom thrives in capitalism, declines in government-regulated economies, and vanishes in communism. Aside from better economic and legislative policies, what America needs is a more intense appreciation for individual freedom and capitalism.

          “I was born and raised in communist Romania during the Cold War, a country in which the government owned all the resources and means of production. The state controlled almost every aspect of our lives: our education, our job placement, the time of day we could have hot water, and what we were allowed to say.

          “Like the rest of the Eastern European countries, Romania was often referred to as a communist country. In school, we were taught it was a socialist country. Its name prior to the 1989 Revolution to overthrow the Ceausescu regime was the Socialist Republic of Romania.

          “From an economic standpoint, a petty fraction of property was still privately owned. In a communist system, all property is owned by the state. So if it wasn't a true communist economy, its heavy central planning and the application of a totalitarian control over the Romanian citizenry made this nation rightfully gain its title of a communist country.

          Socialism Creates Shortages

          “Despite the fact that Romania was a country rich in resources, there were shortages everywhere. Food, electricity, water, and just about every one of life's necessities were in short supply. The apartment building in which we lived provided hot water for showers two hours in the morning and two hours at night. We had to be quick and on time so we didn't miss the opportunity.

          “I get it, maybe we didn't need to be fashionable. But we needed to eat.

          “Wrigley's chewing gum and Swiss chocolate were a rare delight for us. I remember how happy I was when I'd have a pack of foreign bubblegum or a bar of delicious milk chocolate. I'd usually save them for special occasions.

          “Fruity lip gloss, French perfume, and jeans were but a few of the popular items available only on the black market and with the right connections. God bless our black-market entrepreneurs! They made our lives better. They gave us the opportunity to buy things we very much desired, things we couldn't get from the government-owned retail stores which were either half-empty or full of products that were ugly and of poor quality.

          “The grocery stores were not any better. I get it, maybe we didn't need to be fashionable. But we needed to eat. So, the old Romanian adage "Conscience goes through the stomach" made a lot of sense.

          “During the late 1970s, life in Romania started to deteriorate even more. Meat was hardly a consumer staple for the average Romanian. Instead, our parents learned to become good at preparing the liver, the brain, the tongue, and other giblets that most people in the West would not even consider trying.“

          272

          • #
            Graham Richards

            The communists of old weren’t so bright. They owned the resources & means of production which could not ever be sustained. This was how they held power for about 70 years & controlled the population. Didn’t work at all well!
            The communists of the new millennium are very “woke”. All they need to do is control the energy that generates the resources & means of production then they control everything & everyone with no effort whatsoever. Exactly how long it will be sustainable remains to be seen! When the bubble bursts however it’ll be mor messy than the collapse of the soviet states & their sattelites.

            180

      • #
        MudCrab

        Support the workers?

        HAHHAHA :)

        What needs to be observed about Marxism is that Karl was writing as an outside with no real stake in the system. Sure he talked about Owners and Workers and Owner/Workers and put forward that until Workers owned the means there would be ‘Bad Things’ in society, but where did he himself sit? Owner? Worker? Owner/Worker?

        (aside – Marx predicted that the owner/worker or small business owner would become extinct because the pure owner would eat them. He was wrong. Realising he was wrong goes a significant way to understanding why Marxism has failed to work over the years – it is flawed at base principles and cannot work.)

        Back to Marx. He was none of these. Marx was an observer from the outside. Not a worker so he didn’t have to worry about where the next meal for his family was coming from. Not an owner so he didn’t stand to lose everything from the change. He was an outsider, a community organiser if you will, seeking to upvote his standard of living without risking everything if the plan went wrong.

        This is basically the Ruling Left in a nutshell. They don’t actually invest or own, and don’t actually physically work. They ORGANISE others. There power base is the worker who they have convinced cannot exist without them which is why many of them are so openly union – it lets them control the worker.

        The Right on the other hand don’t really want to own and control the worker, they want to exploit them to maximise profits, but they also realise that if you destroy your own market you destroy your own future and that deep down it is bad to be a worker. Stop being a worker and start being a Worker/Owner. If you are good enough to succeed then you will, but you need to actually be ‘good’ and also put the effort in. Handouts are for those who can’t. Those who can are normally lazy or successful.

        So, Labor being for the workers? HAHAHHA. Labor has never been for the workers. Labor has been about controlling the workers so the controllers get rewarded. The Right is actually for the workers because people who work tend to get narky at people who don’t pull their own weight and don’t like seeing their tax money being spent on woke handouts for the unemployable.

        100

        • #
          theRealUniverse

          Remember the early 19thC was an era of putting kids down coal mines to pull the carts, remember Dickens, ‘may I have some more gruel Sir?’ The abuse of young children was appalling. They were pretty bad times so birthed a new wave of anti ‘Owner, Over lord etc.’ good or bad. I think Marx looked at that camp.

          20

          • #
            PeterW

            When talking about the industrial revolution, you need to remember that the reason that people worked in it, was that the alternatives were worse. Children worked EVERYWHERE in the lower stratas of society, and if you think working in a coal mine is bad,try working outdoors in the winter with neither shelter nor adequate clothing.

            Surveys at the time indicated that something like 25% of rural Scots and Irish, and a slightly lesser proportion of English, still lived in windowless huts with dirt floors, which they shared with animals. There was no social security outside of charity. The was no rural paradise from which the working poor were dragged in chains.

            Be careful when reading fiction. Dickens was writing novels, not historical research papers.

            100

            • #
              theRealUniverse

              I was told (not fiction) that in the battle of Trafalgar the powder monkeys were 11 12yo boys as they were small enough to run between the decks! The decks were red to show less blood from the legs blasted of with cannon shells.

              50

            • #
              Another Ian

              Try “Growing up in the country:childhood on the far western frontier” Elliott West. Univ. New Mexico Press 1945.

              10

            • #
              sophocles

              To PeterW @ # 1.1.2.1.1

              You’re right that Dickens was not researching the social conditions of his time but he was still reporting them — the matters set the background of his stories, so he was relatively gentle in his writing about what was around him: he did not include any statistics nor any analysis of the causes of the effects surrounding his society. Nor did he write about The Poor House and the conditions and dastardly deeds therein, nor the Parish Alms, the only form of social welfare then. He was merely setting the scene, painting the fabric supporting his tale.

              You could, however, read Dr George Miller’s book. It’s the documentation of his research.

              Dr Miller (d. c. 2004) was Professor at the University of London. Queen Mary and Westfield College. He was a member of or the Medical Research Council’s Senior Scientific Staff. His research was into why human longevity had stopped increasing for the majority of people and was declining (it is still on the decline). His research is well worth reading if you can find/obtain a copy.

              I have read Marx and Engels (english version) — all three volumes. Yes, it was an effort, they were are bloody boring books. They got it wrong. They didn’t correct themselves until Volume III and, even then, only in one paragraph. Very few who tried to study their works went past Volume I (such turgid writing!), which means the readers missed the author’s correction and couldn’t get it correct themselves. Thus the economies founded, based on these works, soon foundered.

              MILLER, George (Dr); “On Fairness and Efficiency. The Privatisation of the Public Income over the Past Millinium” [2000] The Policy Press.
              ISBN: 1-86134-221-7.

              30

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    Ummmmm Jo, I think earned hat tip on this one too !

    Here is my comment from 2.06 this afternoon ( 1.36 pm my time in SA ) :
    “Bill in Oz
    April 25, 2019 at 2:06 pm
    How very curious !
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-25/vic-solar-installer-staff-laid-off-after-temporary-halt-rebate/1104505i

    Rebates on solar frozen in Victoria.
    And sales dry up.
    In other words the only reason for solar panel installations in Victoria is the government rebate and the interest free loans !”

    200

    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      G’day Bill,
      I must defend Jo on this. The email I sent her on this was timed at 12:24pm, and I assume she at least started thinking about her response soon afterwards. I didn’t consider posting a reply until I’d read all the replies to date, and had nothing to add when I found yours.
      I appreciate the h/t, and often find that others get one using earlier links than I’ve been able to provide. I’m sure she intended no slight.
      Cheers
      Dave B

      40

    • #

      “An award-winning Victorian solar company has laid off just over half of its staff after the Victorian Government placed a temporary freeze on a solar panel rebate program.’ Say, dead-hand of guvuhmint award-winning candy ain’t no substitute for Real-McCoy energy.

      20

  • #
    Robber

    These are not real small businesses but rather blood sucking leeches living off government handouts. Remember pink batts?

    301

    • #
      John in CQ

      Mr Kent is complaining because,interstate leaches are sucking blood he should be entitled too!!

      130

  • #
    Bill in Oz

    I repeat myself : :
    Maybe the solution will come very quickly
    If all the coal fired power generators
    were shut down for a day or so.
    Deliberately !

    On strike against dopey governments
    Imposing unreliable windy sunny power
    On us all.

    A couple of days without the 73% of
    Daily power that coal provides
    Would scare the sh*t
    Out of all the misinformed
    and blind voters !

    Seriously this is the solution !
    Let them have
    Their unreliable, expensive wind & solar
    For a couple of days
    So they know what it’s really like !

    It happened to me when I stayed
    At Port Fairy years ago.
    There was a main powerline break down.
    So we had dim lights from the
    Wind farm nearby for 2 days
    Wonderfull ? NO

    300

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      Another example of a good way to stop feeding them. Give them exactly what they ask for and turn off all the things they rely on without talking or thinking about.

      Context is almost everything. Hit them HARD with the real world context! A lot of things will shake out that way.

      210

    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Good Grief, NO red thumbs yet !

      Does this mean
      Even our reliable believers
      Agree with me ?

      92

    • #
      MudCrab

      At Port Fairy years ago.
      There was a main powerline break down.

      Oh Noes!

      How would they be able to keep all their ‘Lock the Gate’ signs in their shop windows illuminated without constant power?!

      I like Port Fairy. It is a favourite part of my Darkest Victoria road trips I try and do every year, but boy is there a detachment from reality.

      51

    • #
      Bobl

      Bill, back before hazelwood when they were agitating for its shutdown I was calling for a fossil fuel generation strike by all fossil fuel generators, just to show the politicians what happens without hydrocarbon/carbon energy. Let’s make the country live on renewable energy alone for a week.

      10

  • #
    StephenP

    What will happen when there is full market penetration and all the customers for solar panels have had them installed?
    Presumably more subsidies for the erstwhile installers to go round cleaning them?
    At night the gas generators will have to start up or electricity come from a neihbouring state.
    How much does it cost to ramp the gas generators up and down,both as regards cash and CO2 production?

    120

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      StephenP:

      Dr. Finkel put the running cost of ‘gas generators’ i.e. Open Cycle Gas Turbines (or peaker plants to reneweconomy readers) at $135 per MWh. Not counting the maintenance which can put them out of action for 85% of the time (rapid response means thermal stress cracking).
      As for emissions the figures depend on the fuel – with natural gas and the latest, more efficient OCGTs the CO2 emissions are around 600kg per MWh. With diesel fuel and older types (as in SA) the emissions are at least 700 & perhaps as high as 740 kg per MWh.

      Old black coal coal fired stations are between 900 and 980 Kg /MWh CO2. The newest types, as being installed by the Chinese and Americans are around 700-740, but their reliability is far, far better and the cost of their electricity much, much lower.

      120

      • #
        StephenP

        Thank you Graeme.
        How long do you reckon solar panels stay efficient in the Aussie climate, as I understood that they do not like very hot weather?

        90

        • #
          robert rosicka

          I worry more about leaching of the chemicals that go into making them getting into my water tank .

          100

        • #
          sophocles

          StephenP @ 5.1.1 wrote:

          How long do you reckon solar panels stay efficient in the Aussie climate, as I understood that they do not like very hot weather?

          They lose efficiency from about 33°C with losses/inefficiency max-ing out at just over 42°C. At that temperature, the inverters also drop out, and the panels are supposedly very inefficient. Neat, eh?

          Even neater, the lifetime of these panels is c. 25 years. They probably can’t be recycled (unlike earlier panels) so they will have to be stacked up in the desert to form very flashy hills, visible from space like the Great Wall.

          See From tallbloke’s talkshop

          40

          • #
            Bill in Oz

            Soph, I guess that makes them very unsuitable for corrugate iron roofs ?

            All the heat in the roof cavity is transferred out through the iron thus making the air above the roof even hotter than the ambient temperature.
            Or is this just simplistic thinking ?

            Does anyone know ?

            Bill

            10

            • #
              yarpos

              they are installed on an awful lot of colorbond roofs in this country. Time will tell I guess.

              00

              • #
                Bill in Oz

                My own roof is Colorbond
                But thankfully no panels.
                It is very warm up there
                especially in Summer.

                00

            • #
              sophocles

              I don’t know. Your guess would be as good as mine.

              Given the efficiency vs temperature figures, it’s my guess that frequent and prolonged visits to around 40°C – or more, would be likely to prematurely age them. They are made in China, after all, and given a 25 year absolute life time …

              00

      • #
        theRealUniverse

        Gas = good. Plenty in the planet’s mantle to last a few million or so. More CO2 = good more world food supply.

        71

  • #
    pat

    23 Apr: HinduBusinessLine: With renewable energy down, jobs are out
    by M Ramesh
    Be it wind or solar, low tariffs are affecting capacity addition and employment generation
    The wind energy sector has, as expected, turned in a very poor performance for the year 2018-19, with fresh installations of a paltry 1,481 MW.
    When the industry recorded a high of 5,400 MW in 2016-17, it was expected to scale further heights in the coming years, but expectations have been badly belied…

    Go to the website of the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) and you’ll find the proud proclamation that the tariffs were driven to a record low of ₹2.44. The Ministry mindlessly introduced a cap — ₹2.83 a kWhr — above which energy companies could not quote in the tariff-based competitive bids that have become the norm. Then tenders have been cancelled because the tenderer — the government — didn’t like the tariffs it got.

    Little wonder, therefore, that the latest round of auctions for 1,200 MW of capacity has attracted poor response. All bids by wind energy companies totalled to about half the tendered capacity. Add to this, the Gujarat government baulking on land allotment — because it wanted the lands for wind plants that will supply energy to it rather than to the Central government — and you have a cocktail of toxic policies, as reflected in the poor performance in 2018-19.
    Tulsi Tanti, a doyen of the wind industry and the Chairman of the Indian Wind Turbine Manufacturers Association, doesn’t mince words. “We have suffered in the last two years,” he says…

    Rooftop solar is the weakest performing segment in the renewable energy industry, with installations of just around 2.5 GW, way below the target of 40 GW to be achieved by 2022. In all, the renewable energy target of 175 GW by 2022 was estimated to generate 3,00,000 jobs. To reach the target, India must build around 100 GW of wind, solar, biomass and small hydro projects in the next three years.
    Regardless of government’s optimism, it is difficult to see the target achieved…
    https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/specials/clean-tech/with-renewable-energy-down-jobs-are-out/article26924614.ece

    50

  • #
    pat

    what happens when Australia’s windfarms meet bushfires, welding accidents, etc?

    almost no detail can be found online about the damage to these wind farms:

    23 Apr: BBC: Major wildfire in Moray ‘will take days’ to put out
    The alarm was raised shortly before 15:00 on Monday after flames were spotted near Paul’s Hill wind farm at Knockando, south west of Elgin…
    It has passed through one windfarm and is impinging on a second…
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-48030091

    Press Reader: from Scottish Daily Mail, 25 April 2019:
    Inferno rages at Sir Cameron’s estate
    by Annie Butterworth
    On Monday afternoon around 70 firefighters spent almost 24 hours battling a huge fire close to Paul’s Hill winds farm near Aberlour in Moray.
    The same day on Skye, six fire engines were called to ***Edinbane in the north of the island to fight back flames that threatened another ***wind farm just before 11am…

    24 Apr: Scottish Sun: FIRE HELL Moray wildfire ‘shaping up to be biggest UK has seen in years’ as firefighters spend third day battling blaze
    Emergency crews were called to the scene near Paul’s Hill wind farm, close to Aberlour, at 2.58pm on Monday
    by Katy Pagan
    The “aggressive” inferno has been raging on four fronts since Monday, with one stretching for six miles…

    2 wind farms near Moray and the wind farm on Skye would seem to make 3 wind farms, but who knows.

    24 Apr: Reddit/Scotland: Huge fire on Skye (it started more than 12 hours ago and I still see tall flames all along the hills above Edinbane)…
    from 19 replies:
    14m ago: Update: thanks to some rain and the hard work of firefighters, the fire is controlled now…

    7h ago: In the end the world will be uninhabitable. We’re increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere by 10ppm every couple years. At that rate, in 400 years, we’ll not have any clouds, allowing the sun to heat up the Earth by 8C globally just from the lack of cloud cover.

    5h ago: No, we’re completely not fine. The conservative, fantastical IPCC report that states global temperatures will rise by 2.5C, will still be a world that involves many times more suffering than it does now. The current trend is beyond 6C.
    It’s not just a sudden bump. The temperature will progressively rise with each passing year, the effects becoming worse as it continues. We’re already seeing the mass droughts, the climate refugees, and catastrophic extreme weather events. It will only get worse from here on.
    Sure, we won’t see the absolute worst, but neither will the subsequent generations, as there will be no limit in the temperature rise until we reach a Venus-like environmental equilibrium…

    36m ago:
    1) We are already in the “apocalyptic cascade” … it’s too late to avoid it.
    2) There is no technological solution to this problem. We need to stop emitting ALL green house gases literally now. Immediately.
    Not only that we need to remove 50% of all the GHG we’ve already released … this needs to be on such a huge scale and at huge cost in terms of resources, energy and money that it’s literally not possible. There are no technologies that can do this on the scale needed.
    https://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/bh1hvg/huge_fire_on_skye_it_started_more_than_12_hours/

    24 Apr: HeraldScotland: Five square miles of Skye forestry and moorland destroyed by wildfire ***’after welding incident’
    By Martin Williams
    The blaze has affected heath land and forestry plantations near the Edinbane windfarm at Struan…
    He said in a social media post: “Large Wildfire on Skye today caused by small piece of metal from welding. Nearly five square miles of forestry and moorland destroyed. Wildfires can travel at incredible speed when fanned by the wind.” …
    “Firefighters remain on the scene, working to extinguish the fire.”
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17595533.five-miles-of-forestry-and-moorland-destroyed-by-skye-wildfire-after-welding-incident/

    uhoh…welding:

    24 Apr: HeraldScotland: Five square miles of Skye forestry and moorland destroyed by wildfire ***’after welding incident’
    By Martin Williams
    The blaze has affected heath land and forestry plantations near the ***Edinbane windfarm at Struan…
    He said in a social media post: “Large Wildfire on Skye today caused by small piece of metal from welding. Nearly five square miles of forestry and moorland destroyed. Wildfires can travel at incredible speed when fanned by the wind.” …
    “Firefighters remain on the scene, working to extinguish the fire.”
    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/17595533.five-miles-of-forestry-and-moorland-destroyed-by-skye-wildfire-after-welding-incident/

    30

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Alarmist rubbish of the highest order of magnitude x 10 .

      100

    • #
      AndyG55

      Five square miles? WOW!

      Huge . And what is the temperature in Scotland at the moment ?

      Oh No. Its BOILING !

      72

    • #
      Dave in the States

      It is hard to believe there is such scientific illiteracy running rampant. A complete failure of science education. I wonder how many of these commentators are “educators” themselves?

      70

    • #
      yarpos

      Lordy, 5 square miles and they are making out its a major catastrophy. I hope they never have a large bushfire. Interesting whats normal in different places.

      70

      • #
        sophocles

        5 sq miles. That’s out of a mere 639 sq miles for the rather mountainous island. If it’s moving faster than walking pace, then it’s a dangerous blaze, despite the 19th Century clearances having reduced the population significantly.

        00

        • #
          yarpos

          mmmmm I guess if its about %’s then we probably never have a major fire in Oz then.

          00

          • #
            sophocles

            My (only — and I’m careful to keep it that way!) personal experience with an Oz fire, when the flame front overtook the car, without touching the ground, convinced me that Oz fires are majorly dangerous and the eucalyptus trees make them truly wild.

            That was a very scary experience. It was almost thirty years ago; I haven’t and won’t be back to repeat it!

            Skye (Isle of) is a very rocky place on the Western coast of Scotland, nothing like Oz. It doesn’t have predominentlyl eucalyptus forests and very few, if any, heat waves.

            10

    • #
      theRealUniverse

      Actually a year or so ago (there saw one burning in UK I think), I saw was that many windmills actually catch fire :D . Of course the ABC wont tell you this ‘inconvenient fact’. So they dont need bush fires when they can do it all by themselves..

      10

  • #
    RickWill

    This “pause” will actually create a feeding frenzy in July. If people realise the largesse has a cap, then those who have not yet taken up the offer will be keen not to miss out once the money starts flowing again.

    If Labor win the federal election and push the RET higher then power prices will get a new boost as LGC prices rebound. That makes rooftop solar even more attractive.

    On the other hand, if ACP and One Nation manage to get some influence in the senate then that could impair Electricity Bill’s efforts to raise the RET. If RET does not change then the subsidy farms get less income and power prices may flatten out until Liddell closes.

    90

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      The South Australia (Liberal) Government wants another interstate interconnector, this time to NSW. This, they think, will enable surplus generation from the excessive wind farms to go to NSW so the wind farms aren’t directed to shut down as now. Then when the wind doesn’t blow the coal plants in NSW will keep SA supplied.
      They haven’t the funds to pay for it, so expect the Federal Govt. to raise taxes and pay for it.

      They don’t seem to realise that NSW is a net importer of electricity and when Liddell shuts down, around the time that the proposed interconnector is built, there won’t be any surplus electricity available in NSW.

      Adelaide city streets have lots of (feathered) pigeon brains.

      220

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Why is it that the SA state government
        Iis so craven towards
        The unreliable & expensive windy & sunny
        Electron pushers ?

        50

        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Gullibilty, Intellectual incompetence and a desire for power.

          90

          • #
            Bill in Oz

            But Graeme surely they realise that
            Windy & sunny electrons
            Are expensive &unreliable
            And that we the voters will punish
            Them for their high cost power policy.

            Labor was killed off for exactly that reason
            In March 2018 !

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              NigelW

              Bill, prior to the state election, I talked with the Liberal candidate for Newland in my front yard as he was canvassing for votes. Dr Harvey wanted to know what the most pressing issue I had was and I told him “the price of electricity”. He trotted out his “right mix of sources” mantra and was outright shocked when I scoffed at his suggestion of pumped Hydro at the top of the Spencer Gulf as being an utter waste of our money.

              This man has a PhD in medical research…

              He has all of the tools to do critical thinking and fact based researching

              HE HAS *NO* CLUE, beyond the propaganda mantra about renewables, electricity and climate change…and he’s part of our government.

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              • #
                Bill in Oz

                Thanks Nigel, Recently here in Mayo, there was huge publicity that AGL will build pumped hydro scheme at Kanmantoo. It was endorsed by Rebekha Sharkie the Center Alliance member for Mayo as part of her call for more renewable energy.

                I wrote a lengthy criticism of it an published on the Mayo For Mayo Facebook group page here : https://www.facebook.com/groups/144702239734255/permalink/336781397193004/

                I also let the forwarded a copy to the Liberal candidate ( Georgina Downer ) I got a sensible reply from her : “I understand that the Federal Government has contributed funds to this project through ARENA but I am not planning on campaigning on it. You raise some interesting criticisms. Thanks ”

                There is hope !

                But we do need to be able to present solid factual based arguments to counter the bloody propaganda

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  • #

    Don’t you just love the expression “award-winning”? Someone should hand out an industry award for inventing the best industry award name. Then they can give an industry award to the someone who thought of that. Which would be me!

    This is from an actual customer of Sky Energy Systems, writing on Product Review:

    Really pushy and the salesman knew less than I did about the products he was selling. I opted for a seraphim system with SMA which I was assured was the best they had. Price seemed OK so went ahead.

    Was let down on two installation dates and then when the panels turned up after some googling found out they are the cheapest ones from the seraphim company not quality as was stated.

    Cheap company and cheap service.

    Around here people, including me, have lived with solar over years (though nobody pays to get off the grid and on to solar – it goes the other way.) You have to be prepared to spend on quality items and you have to maintain, maintain, maintain. Because when all you have is solar you notice when things don’t work properly. Maybe with the grid for backup and lots of subsidies you can set and forget. In that case, you win, Australia loses.

    Solar is niche technology. Niche is French for doghouse. Nothing wrong with doghouses or solar panels. Just don’t pretend they can do what they can’t.

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    • #

      There’s one ‘award-winning’ serfs go for, and that’s the ‘Darwin-Award-fer-getting-it-right,’ survival, trial and error probe and test, worked fer the evolution of species including us, fer guru fear’n guilt controls ‘n indulgences, in the long run, not so much.

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      • #

        There is a plague of solar installers crawling over the continent. Worst since the Chinese Yellow Fluff infestation under Peter Garrett. (It’s thought that some vectors of the Yellow Fluff are now carrying the solar plague. Apparently both pests thrive in warm subsidies.)

        Save us, Darwin! (Sorry I made that crack about you marrying your first cousin.)

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      • #
        yarpos

        Plenty of Walkley award winners and nominees at the ABC. Says a lot about the value of the awards and the ABC.

        30

    • #
      Annie

      As soon as I see the expression ‘award winning’ the thought occurs, ‘award winning by who or what?’; the BS antennae start up.

      20

  • #
    toorightmate

    Send more GST to dumb bum Andrews – so he can hand out more dough to the renewable fraudsters.

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  • #

    ‘Save us, Darwin! (Sorry I made that crack about you marrying your first cousin.)’ ‘Well, nobody’s perfect.’ H/t George Formby, ‘Some Like it Hot.’

    20

  • #
    robert rosicka

    OT but as expected the university have appealed the decision in favour of Peter Ridd so it’s back to court .

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    • #

      More serfs’ funding called for, the price of open society enquiry.

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    • #
      David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

      Thanks r r,
      Do you have any more details, or know on what grounds they’re appealing? I hope their appeal is rejected out of hand.
      Cheers
      Dave Bu

      20

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        A 17-Nil hiding in court and they want to appeal…….you got to be joking….

        You have to question such a thought process.

        The loopy US Dumb-o-crats who have never gotten over the fact they had their rear ends handed to them in a hat, when Trump won, are still looking for any excuse to find anything against the guy….sore losers…..

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  • #
    yarpos

    Watched this sob story tonight. No mention of the “sustainability ” of an industry that cant survive without direct consumer subsidy. Its cheaper than coal power, the fuel is free, yet we need to subsidise it.

    150

  • #
    pat

    25 Apr: Deutsche Welle: Jo Harper: Russian wind power blows hot and cold
    Russian hydropower company RusHydro has launched a wind power plant in Russia’s Arctic region. It’s far from a signal that fossil-fuel-hungry Russia is going green, but it’s a start.
    Russian company RusHydro has launched a 900-kilowatt (KW) wind power plant in the Arctic settlement of Tiksi in the Yakutia region in Russia’s Far East…

    Only 17% of Russia’s electricity is generated from renewables and about 90% of that is from hydropower, a legacy of the Soviet emphasis on huge infrastructure projects. Roughly 68% of Russia’s electricity is generated from thermal power and 16% from nuclear power. Anatoly Chubais, the head of Russia’s Association of Renewable Power Development, says that by 2024 the generation of solar and wind energy in Russia is expected to reach 1%, low in comparison with 17% in the UK or 25% in Germany…

    The Tiksi project is designed to become a part of an integrated energy complex that includes a diesel power plant with total capacity of 3.9 MW, a spokesman for the company told DW…
    Three unique wind turbines manufactured by Japanese firm Komaihaltec are engineered to operate in temperatures of minus 50 degrees Celsius…
    Hydroelectric power provides 51.5 GW of the country’s 53.5 GW of clean energy generation capacity…

    A problem encountered by foreign developers has been the high level of local content required to qualify for the highest tariff rates, an essential part of many Russian RES projects’ long-term feasibility. The percentage of Russian-made equipment required to avoid tariff penalties were modest at first, but has risen to 65% for wind farms and small hydro, and 70% for solar…

    “There are not many places in the world with fewer incentives to develop renewable energy, Indra Overland, head of the Center for Energy Research at the Norwegian Institute of International Relations (NUPI), told DW…
    https://www.dw.com/en/russian-wind-power-blows-hot-and-cold/a-48452677

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    • #
      yarpos

      “There are not many places in the world with fewer incentives to develop renewable energy, waste resources and send money overseas instead of developing local industry.

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  • #
    pat

    this would be a fun read!

    24 Apr: E&E News: Q&A: Wanted: ‘Legion of lawyers’ to fight climate change
    by Ellen M. Gilmer
    Two leading environmental law scholars are out with a new trove of recommendations for fighting climate change, and they’re recruiting lawyers to put the plan in action.
    Columbia University’s Michael Gerrard and Widener University’s John Dernbach released an extensive playbook this spring designed to assist lawyers and policymakers working to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

    In a hefty 1,000-plus pages, “Legal Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States” explores various strategies for slashing emissions of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases. The tome builds upon research from the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project, a global collaboration that focuses on technical approaches to limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

    Gerrard and Dernbach, who began working on their book in 2015, recruited 59 experts to author different sections. The book discusses efficiency and fuel-switching in buildings; industry and transportation; electricity and fuel decarbonization; carbon capture; and greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide.

    Rounding out the detailed chapters is an extensive index of policy recommendations organized for different types of professionals: members of Congress, EPA officials, state legislators, local government leaders and so forth.
    “We didn’t want the book just to sit on the shelf,” Gerrard said. “We wanted to see these recommendations implemented.”

    And they’re not wasting any time. The book is accompanied by an ambitious action plan to recruit lawyers, many in big law firms, to do pro bono work to advance policy changes.
    “I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the number of people that have come to us and said, ‘How can I help with this? How can I help these recommendations happen?’” Dernbach said. “Our interest is in taking that interest and turning it into results.”…

    The Environmental Law Institute, which published the book, is hosting a seminar based on its recommendations tomorrow in Washington, D.C.

    Gerrard and Dernbach talked to E&E News earlier this month to discuss the project’s origins, their goals and the nitty-gritty policy work they’re advocating…READ ON
    https://www.eenews.net/stories/1060207163

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    pat

    24 Apr: BBC: Australian election: The ‘unlikely’ group calling for climate action
    Australia has just experienced its hottest summer and a succession of extreme weather events – making climate policy a key issue in May’s national election. Now one traditionally improbable group is increasingly calling for action: farmers. Gary Nunn reports from Sydney.

    “Who better than capitalist conservative farmers to push the government on climate change?” asks Verity Morgan-Schmidt, who grew up on a farm and now heads lobby group Farmers for Climate Action…

    Australia gets droughts periodically, but scientists say climate change is causing more frequent and severe weather events…
    Ms Morgan-Schmidt says farmers regularly report shifting rain patterns, more extreme fires and increased drought severity. The impact on farming is significant, she says: one farmer recently lost 70% of crop in three days…

    Crop farmer Caroline Welsh has had to adapt her wheat and barley farming practices because hotter, drier springs mean the harvest comes earlier. “We’re going from extreme to extreme,” she says…

    In October, two experts wrote in The Conversation that “climate denial has been widespread (LINK) among farmers and in the ranks of the National Party, which purports to represent their interests”…

    Another farmer-led pressure group, Lock the Gate, formed in 2010 to deal with coal miners and gas drillers who wanted to mine on farms. National co-ordinator Carmel Flint says: “They felt they had no legal rights, so decided to lock their gates to coal and gas companies.”…

    Ms Welsh has a message for those seeking election in May: “Don’t go down in history as those in power who made the wrong decisions for the planet. If we throw money, resources and brains collectively at this, we could change things.”
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-47890319

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    • #
      robert rosicka

      Having been around farmers for years I’ve only struck one that believed in this garbage but it seems there’s a new generation that have thrown out the old weather records in favour of the good word from the greens .
      Let’s face it subsidy farming is a lot more profitable for little effort .

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        James

        The indoctrination has got into the agricultural science courses as well.

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        • #
          OriginalSteve

          When the whole Soviet-like climate ponzi scheme collapses, it will be extremely ugly.

          The Elite will have to resort to extreme measures to protect thier theft of taxpayer money, like draconian laws. Australua may suffer, but the USA may fight back due to its armed population….

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    pat

    a touch of weather:

    24 Apr: KTVA: Anchorage sees snowiest April in years
    By Aaron Morrison
    As winter breathes what will likely be its last sigh across Southcentral, it does so by dumping more snow over a seven day period than Anchorage has seen in many weeks. Not only that, but the city also saw its longest stretch of days with snow on record this late in the season…
    The 8.6 inches of snow falling this month is enough to place this April in the top 12 snowiest Aprils on record, pushing our seasonal total to 64.5 inches of snow…

    Anchorage wasn’t the only one shattering records this month in snowfall totals, as Nome is closing in only nearly 110 inches of snow just for the season. It’s the seventh snowiest season on record, with five of those records occurring since 2000. A big reason for the increased snow over Western Alaska ***can be attributed to the loss of sea ice, which provides more moisture for incoming storms to work with…
    https://www.ktva.com/story/40361890/anchorage-sees-snowiest-april-in-years

    SBS video won’t play for me:

    VIDEO: 25 Apr: SBS: Spain hit by rare spring snowfall and floods
    Spanish authorities have issued weather warnings after a rare weather front brought snow to parts of the country.
    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/spain-hit-by-rare-spring-snowfall-and-floods

    22 Apr: UK Express: BBC Weather SHOCK: Spain braced for SNOW while England continues to BASK in 24C sunshine
    It’s not warm at all at the moment in Spain, just 12C in Madrid through Tuesday…

    25 Apr: UK Express: Weather WARNING: Spain and France face ‘SEVERE STORMS’ as rapid cold front strikes Europe

    25 Apr: UK Times: Hot spell ends with a bang
    The rash of thundery downpours yesterday came from storms drawn up from Spain and France. Today there will be more widespread rain and breezier conditions streaming in from a depression in the Atlantic. And by the weekend temperatures are expected be 10C lower than Easter, and there could even be gales along western coasts. Perhaps more shocking is the return of frost for some places and the prospect of snow on high ground on the tops of the Pennines and mountains of Scotland…

    24 Apr: UK Express: UK weather forecast: SHOCK chart shows UK in ICY grip by weekend as storms hit
    By Freddie Jordan
    Temperatures by Saturday could be up to six-eight degrees colder than the average for the time of year…

    25 Apr: Accuweather: Winter is not done yet: Snow to streak across north-central US this weekend
    By Alex Sosnowski
    Old Man Winter still has a few tricks up his sleeve and will reveal one of those tricks across parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes region in the form of snow this weekend.
    A storm from the Pacific Ocean will travel just south of the United States/Canada border.
    Some snow will fall first on the southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta, Canada, as well as portions of northern Montana from Thursday night to Friday…

    “It is possible that enough snow falls to cover non-paved surfaces and perhaps even make some roads and sidewalks slushy and slippery from parts of the Dakotas to portions of southern and central Minnesota, central and southern Wisconsin and the Lower Peninsula of Michigan,” according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Travis…

    The potential for snow may not be limited to the North Central states.
    There is the potential for not only wet snow, but perhaps a couple of inches of the white stuff over parts of northern Pennsylvania, New York state and New England from Saturday night to Sunday evening.
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/winter-is-not-done-yet-snow-to-streak-across-north-central-us-this-weekend/70008086

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      Greg in NZ

      Not only the northern hemisphere, Pat: Friday, Thredbo NSW, snow to 1,700 m; Saturday, -5C minimum.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml

      Tasmania’s in for snow to 900 m with freezing gale force winds, while Fiordland, NZ is always cold, wet, freezing, with snow for the next 4 days gradually lowering to 900 m with sub-zero wind chill. Maybe those young wokettes, Greta and AOC, have finally accomplished what Obama claimed he’d done years ago… or maybe not.

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      • #
        Annie

        Wokettes! I like it :)

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        pat

        Greg in NZ -

        thanks for posting.

        more and more, it seems to me, urban thermometers, and hundreds of millions more people in urban areas, is all that is keeping the CAGW scam going:

        18 Apr: BBC: Climate change: Where we are in seven charts and what you can do to help
        By Nassos Stylianou, Clara Guibourg, Daniel Dunford and Lucy Rodgers
        2. The year 2018 set all sorts of records
        The concern is that such hot and cold weather fronts are being blocked – stuck over regions for long periods – more frequently because of climate change, leading to more extreme weather events…

        (UHI? UHI? UHI?)
        5. Urban areas are particularly under threat
        And it’s the faster-growing cities that are most at risk, including megacities like Lagos in Nigeria and Kinshasa in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
        Some 84 of the world’s 100 fastest-growing cities face “extreme” risks from rising temperatures and extreme weather brought on by climate change…
        https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46384067

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        • #
          theRealUniverse

          “The concern is that such hot and cold weather fronts are being blocked – stuck over regions for long periods – more frequently because of climate change, leading to more extreme weather events…” fool statements like that have ZERO scientific evidence and are made willy nilly to the gullible.
          “The year 2018 set all sorts of records” yes, nearly ALL were record COLD.

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    cedarhill

    Humans evolved by adapting to changes. This shows the Left/Greens are at the dead end of their evolutionary journey. Sadly, they won’t go extinct in our lifetimes.

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    Greg in NZ

    O/T yet the sound of ‘boom and bust’ echoes… When polar bears and walruses fail, the Beeb pulls out the old emperor penguin trick again –

    https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48041487

    Antarctica: Thousands of emperor penguin chicks wiped out. By Jonathan Amos, BBC Science Correspondent, 25 April 2019 [ANZAC Day].

    “Thousands of emperor penguin chicks drowned when the sea-ice on which they were being raised was destroyed in severe weather. The catastrophe occurred in 2016 in Antarctica’s Weddell Sea… Dr Fretwell said: “The sea-ice that’s formed since 2016 hasn’t been as strong… So there’s been some sort of regime change.”

    What? Regime change? International politricks? Of course it is, read on: “The BAS team believes many adults have either avoided breeding in these later years or moved to new breeding sites across the Weddell Sea. A colony some 50km away, close to the Dawson-Lambton Glacier, has seen a big rise in its numbers”. Brilliant observation, Dr Fretwell & Co. And now for the clincher –

    “Quite why the sea-ice platform on the edge of the Brunt shelf has failed to regenerate is unclear. There is no obvious climate signal to point to in this case; atmospheric and ocean observations in the vicinity of the Brunt reveal little in the way of change” but but but “the impact that future warming in Antarctica could have on emperor penguins” blah blah send us money etc. Always that ‘future’ bogeyman thingy whatsit.

    At least I learned a new word today from this settled science nonsense article: refugia, noun (plural) Biology,
    an area in which a population of organisms can survive through a period of unfavorable conditions, especially glaciation. Origin 1950s: from Latin, literally ‘place of refuge.’

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    • #
      Bill in Oz

      The ice might have melted
      Because there are a huge number of
      tectonic vents
      in the sea
      Spewing out hot gases and
      even CO2

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    • #
      John F. Hultquist

      Greg in NZ

      The idea of refugia has been used elsewhere for quite some time. If the word came into use in the 1950s the concept likely preceded it by a long while.
      Example here:
      https://bmcevolbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2148-9-25

      This one deals with “Appalachian Mountains and coastal plain” and millipede genus Narceus. Old [1960ish] geography text books used the Red Maple & moose (I think it was) as examples. I was raised on the edge of the Appalachian region and went to college there. Instructors were interested in the idea then.
      There are many others, once you have the term refugia to search with.

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        Greg in NZ

        Cheers John (and Bill). Drove north through and along the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mtns 30 years ago – your engineers know how to make fine mountain roads, lovely in off-season – and on another roadie spent 3 summer days floating down the Shenandoah River (too much John Denver on the radio as a kid?) with American friends. Thought we’d travelled quite a ways with all those switch-back river turns, yet when we finally hauled out we were only down the road from where we started. Besides, the beer had run out and we were thirty lads & ladies.

        Regarding refugium / refugia, the word is kind of self-explanatory, yet I was intrigued by my dictionary’s use of unfavorable conditions, especially glaciation as an example of something to seek refuge from when Dr Fretwell (such a fitting name) used it in reference to pingus in Antarctica. Most of us here understand too much cold for far too long is not a good thing, while dem woke folk seem hell-bent on taking us back to the chiller. Talking of freezing snow, here’s some pics of Tasmania’s Mt Mawson today with more-than-a-dusting down to the public shelter huts. How come no protesters are out there screeching about the weather – http://mtmawson.info/snow-cam/

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        • #
          sophocles

          Notice how all these worrisome stories about Antarctica melting always seem to appear in April-May — the end of the Southern Hemisphere summer?

          I can predict Greenland is melting stories in October-November — at the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer.

          Boring.

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    • #
      theRealUniverse

      What amazes (or annoys me mostly) is that all studies of these areas HAVE to come up with some nonsense crap about how its all due to ‘climate change’ without any proof. None required of course. You can tell these researchers , a few probably, dont believe it but are REQUIRED to mention it to get any funding for their research work.

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  • #
    Lionell Griffith

    Making money in Australia increasing means being a better lobbyist for government masters, not being a better producer of things Australians need or want.

    “Making money” pertains to “being a better producer of things Australians need or want”. “Making money” means creating the values for which others are willing to trade values they have created. Each party of the trade win.

    The “Money” is not wealth, it is simply a medium of exchange who’s value depends upon the existence of the values traded that had to be created before they could be exchanged.

    The government masters take, by force or fraud, the wealth created by the producers and gives it to those who didn’t create it. No new value is created. In fact value is destroyed by the process. This is largely because the creators of that wealth no longer are able to use the wealth THEY created to create still more wealth.

    In effect, the government has taken that portion of the life the producer spent creating the wealth. This diminishes the right to life of all of us. It is irrelevant that it is a legal fiction of due process that theft is intended to be for the greater good of the collective. How can the bad for each and every individual be the good for the collective which exists only as an association of individuals? It cannot be.

    This is especially true for government who wants to eat their cake, your cake, and everyone’s cake and complains there is not enough cake to eat. As in “the rich must pay their fair share”. How much is fair: always and forever MORE! Who are the rich? Anyone who works and earns is living.

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    Roy Hogue

    Victorian solar company reeling after popular rebate scheme halted temporarily

    Rebates or tax incentives appear to always show a recalcitrant public that there’s an advantage in something that has no advantage.

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    RicDre

    Off Topic, but I just wanted to express my thanks to all of those who served in Australian and New Zealand, past present and future, to preserve freedom in the world.

    A video for my friends in Australia and New Zealand on Anzac Day

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/24/a-video-for-my-friends-in-australia-and-new-zealand-on-anzac-day/

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    robert rosicka

    I love the quote about fossil fuel generators burning fossil fuel and renewables burn cash .

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/renewable-energy-investment-maybe-heading-from-boom-to-bust/11041964

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    • #
      Dennis

      As presented here a while back, Liddell Power Station is worth more to AGL closed down.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Tristan Edis makes the fundamental error in his analysis that intermittents generated energy has value:

      Green Energy’s Tristan Edis said these challenges are likely to push required PPA prices more towards $55/MWh in time.

      The value to the network is negative. He states that coal plants make money at $40/MWh so even at contract price of $55/MWh plus the current $33/MWh for the LGC, intermittent generation is more than twice that of coal.

      He rightly points out that investment in grid scale intermittents will dry up until another coal plant shuts down. That is of course without the “policy certainty” that Labor is offering by raising the RET and thereby boosting the LGC price. That will get the subsidy farmers ploughing again.

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    Bill in Oz

    AOhhhhhh Deary me ! The ABC acknowledges that windy power is busting and even that coal is cheaper & more reliable than wind or solar…

    Whatever happened to the ABC’s political correct censors ? They shouldn’t be telling the punters the truth !

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/renewable-energy-investment-maybe-heading-from-boom-to-bust/11041964

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    • #
      Dennis

      No acknowledgement of the use-by date of wind turbines as compared to the existing coal fired power stations.

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      • #
        Bill in Oz

        That’s true !
        No acknowledgement of :
        1: The number of bird & micro-bats killed by the wind turbines.

        2: The adverse impacts on the lives of people living nearby, because of the noise of the blades

        3 :The simple fact that wind turbine blades are constructed with high tensile steel, produced in high carbon monoxide environment with all that this means for the health of steel workers

        but the ABC acknowledges that coal is cheaper than wind & solar and that this is making more investment in wind turbines un-profitable.

        Now that is extraordinary.

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Solar has made power so “cheap’ its distorted the market…..ah yes…..its called the RET….it should be called the DISTORT…

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/renewable-energy-investment-maybe-heading-from-boom-to-bust/11041964

    “Clearly a problem for utility-scale renewable growth at these prices is that old, debt-free coal-fired plants operate profitably at $40/MWh.

    “They also keep churning away when the wind stops blowing and the sun stops shining, a trait retailers are prepared to pay for.

    “As they say in the industry: “thermal plants burn fossil fuels, renewables burn cash” — at least in their formative years.

    “I think you’d be very hard pressed to find a power retailer willing to offer 10 to 15-year PPAs at $55/MWh to either a wind or solar project without policy change, or until another coal-fired power station keels over,” Mr Edis said.

    …..Um….coal plants dont keel over, they get shut down by politicians making coal so expensive they cant operate….

    “However, Mr Edis said there are plenty of investors prepared to accept low returns, particularly with long-term bond yields bumping along not much above zero.

    “From what I hear, both wind and solar need similar PPA prices somewhere in the realm between $45/MWh — at a real stretch and a very good project — to $55/MWh, providing the contract is for 10 years plus and involves a low credit risk offtaker [customer].

    “This does entail low equity returns, but it seems there are renewable energy project investors out there willing to accept these low returns if the offtaker is considered to be financially robust,” Mr Edis said.

    …………….

    “Right now, something’s got to give.
    Committed and contracted renewables are expected to contribute an additional 30,000 MWh to the national electricity market by 2021, and at the same time demand is forecast to fall by around 6,000 MWh.

    “In other words, supply looks likely to outstrip demand by around 24,000 MWh.
    That will keep a lid on prices and make investors increasingly nervous.

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  • #
    Peter Fitzroy

    It just go worse for renewables, from the ABC
    Long-term power purchasing agreements for large scale renewable generators have fallen 30pc in the past 5 years
    AEMO has slashed the prices paid to many more remote renewable generators
    A wave of new projects, equivalent to two Hazelwood plants, will start in the next two years leading to a large oversupply imbalance.

    another consequence from the dearth of sensible energy policy

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    • #
      AndyG55

      “sensible energy policy”

      So you will be voting for Australian Conservative Party, then Fits?

      ———

      •Australians deserve the most reliable and affordable energy in the world.

      •With electricity generation, we are technology-agnostic but subsidy-averse.

      •We support nuclear power and a nuclear fuel cycle industry.

      •We support all forms of electricity generation and will provide them with legislative certainty and legal protection.

      We do not support any renewable energy targets.

      We will remove all taxpayer and cross subsidies to electricity generation.
      (NOTE, an allowable Tax Deduction is NOT a subsidy)

      •We will require all electricity supplied to the grid to be useable – that is, predictable and consistent in output (kWhrs) and synchronous (at the required 50 Hz range)

      •We will allow market forces to provide the most efficient power generation available.

      We will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord.

      ——–

      Looks like a very SENSIBLE and solid energy policy, wouldn’t you agree, Fitz.

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      Peter Fitzroy

      I’m assuming that the 5 red thumbs indicate those on this site who are invested in grid scale renewables

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      • #

        Naah! Those downticks are for where you incorrectly quote two new Hazelwoods as additions, blindly copying the journalist who thinks Nameplate is the same, because two new Hazelwood Nameplate is the equivalent of 0.6 additional Hazelwoods in actual power generation.

        Another failure to understand Capacity Factor.

        Tony.

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        • #
          Peter Fitzroy

          Incorrectly quote? i did not change the wording so it is a correct quote.
          As to capacity factor, I understand it to be the average production for a wind turbine, meaning that it could produce up to 90% of nameplate on occasion, or nothing.

          49

          • #
            AndyG55

            Very rarely anywhere near 90%

            Here is the German percentage of nameplate against time for 2015/2016.
            (note, data was in 5% time steps)

            Taking an approximate average of the two years…

            Note that it was below 40% nameplate for 90% of the time,

            below 25% of nameplate for 70% of the time,

            and below 16% of nameplate for half the time.

            That makes it BASICALLY USELESS for any real electricity supply system.

            112

            • #
              AndyG55

              And if we ask the question,

              “What percentage of nameplate did Wind power provide 95% of the time?”

              We get the gloriously PATHETIC answer of 4.30%

              Bow down and worship wind power.. NOT !

              92

              • #
                AndyG55

                oops.. That 4.30% was for 2015

                For 2016 it was 2.58%

                Consistency in NON-SUPPLY !

                72

              • #
                theRealUniverse

                Checkout my comment wind-useless-turbines earlier.. These numbers just back it up.

                50

              • #
                robert rosicka

                Just had someone bragging on faceache that Germany achieved 65% of power generation last week was from wind and solar .
                I asked what they did for power the rest of the year ?

                10

            • #
              Peter Fitzroy

              There seems to be some discrepancy here. Only the unbiased NoTricksZone is promoting this. All the other sites are reporting capacity factors of around 20% for onshore, and around 35% for offshore for the same period.

              38

              • #
                toorightmate

                Well it sure as sh*t aint 35% for onshore in Oz – you DRONGO.

                72

              • #
                AndyG55

                2015 in Germany was a combined capacity factor (wind and offshore) of 22.7%

                2016, combined capacity Factor of 19.4%

                No discrepancy, just your innate inability at comprehension of graphs.

                This is straight from actual DATA, Fritz, calculated by a rabid AGW believer.

                I know data is an enema to you. !

                62

              • #
                Peter Fitzroy

                which data where? If it was true you would have linked

                24

              • #
                AndyG55

                Where is the link to warming by atmospheric CO2, fits.?

                You are EMPTY.

                Data is where it came from. In Germany.

                DENIAL of actual DATA is all you have left to you, poor thing.

                51

          • #
            Bobl

            Yes, but your electricity supply has reliability mandates, around 20 hours of outage (downtime) per year or 0.23% downtime, 99.77% uptime.

            So what is important is electricity generation at 99.7% reliability. Solar generates zero watts at 99.7% reliability , wind is mostly zero watts and no more than 1% of nameplate at that reliability.

            Capacity factor is a long term average but you don’t actually use electricity on a yearly average. Reliable uptime is the dominant factor, that is, what is the maximum energy that can be supplied 99.77% of the time.

            10

      • #
        AndyG55

        A gave you the most sensible Energy policy of any party, Fitz.

        Still waiting for you to agree that you are voting ACP instead of your usual Green/Labor.

        You KNOW everything in the ACP policy is straightforward common sense, don’t you. :-)

        Of course, under those policies, Wind and Solar would basically DISAPPEAR as a grid scale input or as a viable alternative altogether.

        2 or 3 new HELE coal-powered cheap power stations would be built.

        And Stability and Reliability restored to the grid.

        82

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        To the point though, investment is moving away from wind and solar as their economic model has been badly damaged by AEMO. In short, they will now have to compete directly against coal. I would have thought that the commentators on this site would have been cheering such a decision as it is what was being demanded as late as yesterday. Sigh, mabe WUWT will do a post, and then the cheering can begin.

        38

        • #
          el gordo

          Investment will move away from renewables worldwide because they at the mercy of nature. In the US there has been a decline in wind.

          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-25/worst-wind-in-decades-deal-power-suppliers-another-earnings-blow

          50

        • #
          AndyG55

          “they will now have to compete directly against coal”

          Bye, bye wind and solar ! ;-)

          No-One will miss what was rarely there.

          81

        • #
          AndyG55

          “wind and solar as their economic model has been damaged “

          Their “economic” model ALWAYS relied on subsidies and mandated usage.

          That is no “economic” model at all.

          Even with the RET, carbon penalties on coal and gas, and mandated usage, they STILL can’t make it work.

          And nor will they ever be able to make it work.

          So sad ;-)

          71

        • #
          philthegeek

          they will now have to compete directly against coal.

          The price of which is artificially low as they don’t factor in the cost of the pollution it generates.

          Cue AngryG apoplectic attack. :)

          05

          • #

            Good point. Instead of tipping endless amounts of dough (earned with coal exports) into wasteful green fairy floss we need to spend on nice new coal power plants for ourselves. USC for sure. Love the Hitachis!
            https://www.mhps.com/products/conventional/

            40

          • #
            Bobl

            Wrong again, the investment has already been made in precipitators and other filtering tech that removes almost all the pollutants from coal plant exhaust so those externalities HAVE been accounted for.

            20

          • #
            AndyG55

            Per unit of electricity, wind and solar are far more polluting than coal.

            Go and live somewhere they manufacture the huge rare earth magnets for wind power, or where they mine the minerals for the solar panels.

            You, as usual, are displaying your innate ignorance through your nether region, phloop. ie , you are talking through your a**e

            Very little pollution comes from a modern coal fired power station.

            20

    • #
      yarpos

      I had a Labor candidate trot out that line about two Hazelwood equivalents. Such a false equivalence it doesnt even get near apples and oranges.

      10

  • #
    Travis T. Jones

    Q. Can renewables prevent 97% doomsday climate change?

    2019; Solar takes biggest chunk out of grid emissions over summer

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-takes-biggest-chunk-out-of-grid-emissions-over-summer-51265/

    Australia swelters through the warmest March on record

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-01/2019-hottest-march-on-record-in-australia/10959828

    A. No.

    63

    • #
      AndyG55

      “Australia swelters through the warmest March on record”

      Maybe somewhere, like in the middle of the continent where nobody lives.

      Where most people live, it was just a normal, pleasant March,

      And hasn’t April been absolutely GLORIOUS ! :-)

      According to UAH, March 2019 in Australia was in 9th position

      122

    • #
      Bill in Oz

      Come on Travis, you;re feeding us bullsh*t.

      Reneweconomy = propaganda= BIG LIES

      61

  • #
    kevin george

    While British Columbians mutter profanities as they watch gas prices soaring as high as $1.79 a litre, carbon-tax advocates who should be popping champagne are instead quietly avoiding eye contact.

    https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/as-vancouver-drivers-suffer-gas-price-pain-carbon-tax-backers-go-suspiciously-quiet

    30

  • #
    theRealUniverse

    The whole UN-’renewables’ idea is just crash and burn. They are already starting to do both, the sooner the better.

    50

  • #
    pat

    25 Apr: GreentechMedia: Tesla Suffers Deep Q1 Loss as Solar Installs Continue to Plummet
    by Eric Wesoff
    Solar struggles, storage limited by cell production
    Tesla talks a good game about its residential solar and energy storage business, allowing customers to purchase “directly from our website, in standardized increments of capacity. We aim to put customers in a position of cash generation after deployment with only a $99 deposit upfront. That way, there should be no reason for anyone not to have solar generation on their roof.”

    But the quarterly solar numbers paint a story of a deteriorating business, despite any brave claims to the contrary. Energy generation and storage revenue in Q1 decreased by 13 percent over Q4 2018, driven by a severe decline in solar deployments that fell from 73 megawatts to 47 megawatts, down about 36 percent quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. Gross margin of the solar and storage business in Q1 dropped to 2.4 percent.

    Tesla, and before that SolarCity, has not deployed as low a figure as Q1′s 47 megawatts in more than five years — when solar was considerably more expensive than it is today. Data from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables shows that Tesla’s residential installation volumes nearly halved from 650 megawatts in 2016 to 352 megawatts in 2017, and fell again last year to 208 megawatts…

    Musk said that the solar roof product was already on “version 3,” although one would be hard-pressed to locate a roof with version 1 or 2. Almost three years after its introduction, and after having received deposits from interested homeowners, Tesla has connected just a dozen or so solar-integrated roofs to the grid…
    https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/tesla-suffers-deep-losses-in-q1-while-solar-installs-continue-to-plummet

    40

    • #
      yarpos

      Boy that 2.6 Billion dollars that Tesla handed over for Solar City is really paying of isnt it? It’s just as well Tesla is such a cash rich company and doesnt need ……oh wait

      10

  • #
    pat

    here we go again:

    25 Apr: TheConversation: Should we turn the Sahara Desert into a huge solar farm?
    by Amin Al-Habaibeh, Professor of Intelligent Engineering Systems, Nottingham Trent University
    (Disclosure statement: Amin Al-Habaibeh receives funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) and European Commission)

    Given the Sahara covers about 9m km², that means the total energy available – that is, if every inch of the desert soaked up every drop of the sun’s energy – is more than 22 billion gigawatt hours (GWh) a year.
    This is again a big number that requires some context: it means that a hypothetical solar farm that covered the entire desert would produce 2,000 times more energy than even the largest power stations in the world, which generate barely 100,000 GWh a year. In fact, its output would be equivalent to more than 36 billion barrels of oil per day – that’s around five barrels per person per day. In this scenario, the Sahara could potentially produce more than seven times the electricity requirements of Europe, with almost no carbon emissions…

    But one of the drawbacks is that when the panels get too hot their efficiency drops. This isn’t ideal in a part of the world where summer temperatures can easily exceed 45℃ in the shade, and given that demand for energy for air conditioning is strongest during the hottest parts of the day. Another problem is that sand storms could cover the panels, further reducing their efficiency.
    Both technologies might need some amount of water to clean the mirrors and panels depending on the weather, which also makes water an important factor to consider…
    https://theconversation.com/should-we-turn-the-sahara-desert-into-a-huge-solar-farm-114450

    30

    • #
      Maptram

      The oil producing neighbours would not like it.

      As well the climate change believing, animal loving, anti racist, fossil fuel hating lefties would have to choose which hat to wear. For example, if someone wanted to drill in some tiny part of the sahara for oil, the lefties would be protesting all over the world, displaced people, some animal would become extinct, climate change etc etc etc. But if someone wanted to cover the whole Sahara desert with solar panels to produce “free” energy for Europe, that would be OK because it would be doing it’s part to stop climate change

      40

    • #
      Bill in Oz

      I have wondered sometimes whether,
      if all of a desert was covered with solar panels,
      if the actual climate would change ?

      After all the cliamte is a result of all
      That sunlight being absorbed and
      IR heat radiated out into the air.

      But panels absorbed a huge proportion
      Of the incoming light and
      Converted it to electricity sent elsewhere

      The normal energy balance would be disturbed.

      I wonder what would happen
      to all the micro organisms,
      the plants and animals that
      survive and thrive in the desert environment ?

      I suspect that the Greenists have no idea.

      20

  • #
    pat

    25 Apr: BusinessGreen: Repower old onshore wind farms to meet climate targets, UK government urged
    by Michael Holder
    The UK must ensure it replaces older onshore wind farms with newer turbines as they reach the end of their operational lives if it is to secure enough low-cost power capacity to meet climate change targets, RenewableUK has warned…

    The UK’s first commercial wind farms were developed in the 1990s and built to operate for around 20-25 years. Moreover, analysis by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) last year highlighted around 750 turbines across almost 60 UK sites installed around the turn of the millennium which are scheduled to reach the end of their operational lives in the next five years…
    A report today by the trade body explains that more than 8GW of existing onshore wind capacity, which currently generates nearly a fifth of the UK’s renewable electricity output, could be retired over the next two decades.

    The group added that new policies are therefore needed to enable the replacing or ‘repowering’ of these older turbines as they reach the end of their operational lives, such as setting a framework to encourage councils to grant planning permission for such projects.

    The report warns the UK faces a low carbon electricity generation gap of up to 18 per cent of current demand by 2030, and that if the government fails to support ‘repowering’ or replacing existing onshore wind turbines that gap could grow even wider…

    Meanwhile, recent government figures show the UK is currently on track to overshoot its own carbon budgets in the late 2020s and early 2030s, as it seeks to decarbonise in line with statutory targets…READ ON
    https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news-analysis/3074575/repower-old-onshore-wind-farms-to-meet-climate-targets-uk-government-urged

    10

  • #
    pat

    25 Apr: Reuters: Britain must commit to carbon capture to meet climate goals – lawmakers
    by Susanna Twidale
    “Carbon capture usage and storage (CCUS) will be necessary to meet the UK’s existing climate change targets at least cost, the report by the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Committee said…
    The BEIS Committee report said CCUS technology would be vital for a zero target to be met.
    “Failure to deploy CCUS would also mean the UK could not credibly adopt a ‘net zero emissions’ target” the report said…
    There are fewer than 20 large-scale CCSU projects in operation globally but many more will be needed to meet the challenge of climate change, according to the International Energy Agency…
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-carboncapture/britain-must-commit-to-carbon-capture-to-meet-climate-goals-lawmakers-idUSKCN1S02XL

    25 Apr: EnergyVoice: Updated: Union anger as UK energy minister ‘unable to attend’ wind summit
    by David McPhee
    The Scottish Government said earlier this month that Ms Perry was due to co-host the summit with Scottish Finance Secretary Derek Mackay on May 2.
    First Minister Nicola Sturgeon vowed to convene the summit in March after troubled Scottish firm Burntisland Fabrication (BiFab) was overlooked in favour of two foreign rivals for a multi-million contract for a giant 100-turbine Moray Firth wind development.
    The UK department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) said Ms Perry would be unable to attend due to other “diary commitments”…

    Unite Scotland secretary Pat Rafferty last night described Ms Perry’s non-attendance as “unforgivable”…
    “It will be unforgivable because billions of work has already been lost to Europe and the Middle East, and more will be lost unless politicians get their act together and treat this issue with the seriousness it deserves.”…
    https://www.energyvoice.com/otherenergy/197877/union-anger-as-uk-energy-minister-unable-to-attend-wind-summit/

    00

  • #
    pat

    read all:

    24 Apr: ING: Counting the cost of a low carbon economy
    Wind and solar power will need a $13 trillion investment over 30 years to reach emissions targets, as demand for power doubles
    by Gerben Hieminga
    •The potential for private investment is dependent on public investment: additional grid investment is needed to accommodate the increased power demand and volatility of supply…

    As a result, power demand increases from around 27,000 TWh currently to 57,000 TWh by 2050 in ING’s Positive Tech scenario. To put this in perspective, power demand in 2040 is 9,000 TWh higher in our scenario compared to the well-known Sustainable Development scenario from the International Energy Agency, which has a planning horizon to 2040 instead of 2050…

    Solar needs more capacity than wind
    Since the sun does not always shine and the wind can be unpredictable, more capacity is needed to steadily produce 19,000 TWh each. In other words, these two sources of energy are less efficient than oil and gas…

    Solar, on the other hand, needs almost four times as much capacity to generate the same amount of power as gas and coal fired power plants. This is because of the obvious problem that the sun does not shine at night and panels produce less power on cloudy days.

    Overall, solar capacity needs to grow to an estimated 14,000 GW by 2050 to deliver the 19,000 TWh needed. Onshore wind would have to grow to 4,700 GW and offshore to around 1,200 GW to achieve its share of TWh generation…READ ON
    https://think.ing.com/articles/cost-of-transition-to-a-low-carbon-economy

    20

    • #
      Dennis

      Then add the transition to electric vehicles demand on electricity grids.

      30

    • #

      Since the sun does not always shine and the wind can be unpredictable, more capacity is needed to steadily produce 19,000 TWh each.

      There’s a good laugh right there.

      Steadily generate ….. is something which can’t be done with solar power, or with wind power.

      Consider this.

      A monster solar PV plant, the biggest in Australia, is 135MW Nameplate.

      So, at the best case scenario Capacity Factor for Solar PV of 20%, then the actual generated power comes in at an equivalent 27MW, and that’s the BIGGEST in Australia.

      27MW.

      That ancient old clunker Hazelwood, from a design from the 50s had 200MW generators, the smallest in Australia for a coal fired plant when it closed.

      Feed in coal, and get out 200MW ….. steadily.

      Tony.

      110

      • #
        theRealUniverse

        Tony, what rated power from each turbine and how many in Hazelwood, or the others? Is that 200MW for each generator?

        20

        • #
          Serp

          Hazelwood had eight.

          20

        • #

          Hazelwood had 8 Units, each generator 200MW for a Nameplate of 1600MW.

          List of current Coal Fired Power Plants in Australia. (All Plants are Sub Critical, unless otherwise stated)

          There are no coal fired power plants in either of the two States of South Australia (SA) and Tasmania. (Tas)

          New South Wales (NSW)

          Bayswater – 2640MW (4 Units of 660MW)

          Eraring – 2880MW (4 Units of 720MW)

          Liddell – 2000MW (4 Units of 500MW)

          Mount Piper – 1400MW (2 Units of 700MW)

          Vales Point – 1320MW (2 Units of 660MW) TOTAL NSW – 5 Power Plants – 10240MW (16 Units)

          Queensland (Qld)

          Callide B – 700MW (2 Units of 350MW)

          Callide C – 840MW (2 Units of 420MW) – SuperCritical (Callide B and C on the same site as one power plant)

          Gladstone – 1680MW (6 Units of 280MW)

          Kogan Creek – 744MW (1 Unit) – SuperCritical

          Milmerran – 852MW (2 Units of 426MW) – SuperCritical

          Stanwell – 1460MW (4 Units of 365MW)

          Tarong North – 443MW (1 Unit) – SuperCritical

          Tarong – 1400MW (4 Units of 350MW) TOTAL QLD – 8 Power Plants – 8119MW (22 Units)

          Victoria (Vic) (All Victorian plants burn Brown Coal)

          Loy Yang A – 2240MW (4 Units of 560MW)

          Loy Yang B – 1000MW (2 Units of 500MW)

          Yallourn W – 1480MW (2 Units of 360MW and 2 Units of 380MW) TOTAL VIC – 3 Power Plants – 4720MW (10 Units)

          TOTAL AUSTRALIA – 15 Power Plants – 23079MW (48 Units)

          Tony.

          90

          • #
            theRealUniverse

            Thanks, T.
            Fitz did you get that TOTAL AUSTRALIA – 15 Power Plants – 23079MW! try that with your solar wind(less)bines!!

            10

      • #
        Peter Fitzroy

        and pollution, don’t forget that. Brown coal is the worst for that

        27

        • #
          AndyG55

          Wind and solar are FAR worse per unit of electricity for pollution and habitat destruction than brown coal could ever be.

          But so long as its not here, right, fritz!

          102

        • #
          Bill in Oz

          Please give us some exact figurs & sources Fitz.
          Otherwise we must all assume
          That your comment is just
          Noisy off stage irrelevant nonsense

          71

        • #
          Bobl

          Not really, brown coal has a higher water content, which means it burns cooler. This reduces the thermal efficiency of the generator. Kg for kg brown coal and black coal emit the same pollution but you get less electricity from the brown coal.

          There are some plants that use waste heat to remove the water from the brown coal which delivers efficiencies similar to black coal.

          30

  • #
    pat

    ABC says it’s going to be a CAGW election.
    today on a single program:

    26 Apr: ABC Breakfast: Oceans hit by bigger waves and winds over past 33 years, study finds
    Guest: Ian Young, Kernot professor of engineering, University of Melbourne

    26 Apr: ABC Breakfast: Science with Tegan Taylor: Caffeine giving solar cells a boost
    Scientists working on a particular type of solar cells have found caffeine boosted the ability of cells to convert light into energy…

    26 Apr: ABC Breakfast: Australia’s forgotten drought
    As Queensland farmers celebrate their most significant rainfall in years, WA graziers are bracing for a tough year ahead…
    Some farmers in WA’s mid-west, who have been forced to destock after several dry years, believe they’ve been overlooked in Australia’s “forgotten drought”.

    50

    • #
      pat

      the last two ABC Big Ideas – an hour that will be repeated, of course:

      25 Apr: ABC Big Ideas: New rules of war
      What is the future of war? Do corporations, mercenaries, and rogue states now hold more power than the nation-states? The strategies of conventional wars don’t work in a world of disorder: global terrorism, international criminal empires, climate change, dwindling natural resources and bloody civil wars. But the US armed forces have failed to adapt to the new conditions.
      The New Rules of War: Victory in the Age of Durable Disorder presented by the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs. 13 March 2019
      Speaker
      Sean McFate – Professor of strategy, National Defense University and Georgetown University; Think tank scholar at the RAND Corporation, Atlantic Council, Bipartisan Policy Center and New America Foundation…

      24 Apr: ABC Big Ideas: What’s on the menu in 2050?
      Climate change is causing havoc for Australian food producers.
      Then there’s consumer concerns about how food is produced.
      And the pressure to feed a growing population.
      So how are Australian farmers responding and will indigenous foods form a greater part of our diet? ..
      What’s on the menu in 2050? recorded 24 March 2019 World Science Festival…
      Speakers
      Fiona Simson – President National Farmers’ Federation
      Indigenous chef – Mark Olive
      Craig Heraghty – National Agribusiness Leader PricewaterhouseCoopers
      Nina Fedoroff – molecular biologist and senior science advisor to OFW Law Washington

      30

      • #
        pat

        however, not an ABC word about Senvion despite their large footprint in Australia:

        Workers Sent Home as Contractor Files for Insolvency
        Magic1059 – 15 Apr 2019
        Workers at the $480 million Lincoln Gap wind farm near Port Augusta have been sent home after International contractor Senvion filed for self-administration proceedings…
        The CFMEU says it had up to 100 members on the project that have been stood down with no word on when they can go back to work…
        This devastating blow follows the collapse of SolarReserve’s proposed $650 million Aurora solar thermal project in Port Augusta.

        12 Apr: RenewEconomy: Australian wind project owners worried as Senvion faces insolvency
        The situation has raised concerns for projects and workers in Australia using Senvion technology, or where it is the contractor, including the 212MW Lincoln Gap wind project near Port Augusta in South Australia and the huge Murra Warra development in Victoria.
        In Australia, Senvion has installed more than 470MW of wind energy generation, with a further 430MW under construction as at September 2018…

        Senvion troubles delay Mainstream loan in Chile
        LatinFinance-24 Apr 2019
        Ireland’s Mainstream Renewable Power faces delays in signing a 20-year, $485m loan in Chile after the German wind turbine supplier Senvion …

        google translations:

        25 Apr: Kapitalmarktexperten.de: Senvion: Supervisory Board changes significantly
        The wind turbine manufacturer Senvion, which recently slipped into insolvency, today announces significant changes in the company’s supervisory board.
        Effective immediately, Supervisory Board Chairman Steven Holliday and other Supervisory Board members Frank Mattern, Ben Langworthy, Matthias Schubert, Alberto Terol and Carl Friedrich Ole Freiherr von Beust have resigned.
        The departing members will be replaced by Eugene Davis (new chairman of the supervisory board), Steven D. Scheiwe and Timothy Bernlohr with immediate effect and until the next annual general meeting of the company…

        25 Apr: Ecoreporter Germany: Senvion: Supervisory board members take their hat
        The share of the wind turbine manufacturer is currently listed on the Xetra stock exchange at 1.10 euros… The Senvion share is still a risky paper. Investors should watch the further development of the wind turbine manufacturer from the sidelines…

        30

    • #
  • #
    Peter C

    Strangely, nothing reported on the ABC NEWS this evening.

    I will be surprised and stand corrected if the waves exceeded 4m

    30

    • #
      Peter C

      Correction,

      There was a report on the ABC news,

      As far as I could see the waves did not exceed 3m. In fact excellent conditions for the Surfing comp and nothing out of the ordinary for the famous Bell’s Beach.

      41

      • #
        Bill in Oz

        Another example of the BOM
        Being the Bureau of Misinformation
        With the ABC being only to happy to spread the scary news

        31

      • #
        Ghibli Levante

        PeterC, the forecast of 15 meter waves was in reference to Bass Strait, well offshore.

        Cape Sorrell in Tasmania has recorded a maximum of 15.5 meters at 4.30pm and the Point Nepean Wave Buoy 11.85 meters at 5pm

        http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT65015.shtml

        http://www.vicports.vic.gov.au/community-and-bay-users/Pages/Waves-wind-weather.aspx

        The forecast for Bells was around 4 meters. Contest organisers called the biggest sets at around 4.5 meters.

        So Bill, it looks like the BOM were spot on with their forecast. Your continual BOM and ABC bashing is making you look a bit of a dill.

        Peter C, conditions were far from excellent. With WSW winds gusting to around 40 knots the swell was extremely lumpy and uneven but still contestable.

        As for nothing out of the ordinary comment, you will get swells this size only two or three times a year. As far as the comp goes only two years, 1964 and 1981 have seen bigger surf. There was an exceptional volume of water moving across the reef and the water safety guys had to come to the assistance of a couple of surfers who were in danger of being dragged over the Winkipop Button.
        Italo Ferriera said later “It was the craziest moment I’ve ever been in.”

        Several boards were broken and at least one leg rope plug was ripped out of the board.

        It was a long long way from just another ordinary day at Bells.

        20

  • #
    el gordo

    O/T

    No empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that US summers are getting warmer because of CO2.

    https://c3headlines.typepad.com/.a/6a010536b58035970c0240a47dc6a3200d-pi

    In fact its cooled ever so slightly, we have a trend.

    50

  • #
    pat

    BBC seems to have ignored this so far, but Guardian, HuffPo, Mirror & a couple of others are beating it up:

    25 Apr: UK Independent: Liam Fox accused of ‘staggering’ ignorance after appearing to legitimise climate change denial
    Cabinet minister later clarified remarks after coming under fire for suggesting the science was up for debate
    by Lizzy Buchan
    The international trade secretary was forced to row back after he told MPs that even those who did not accept the “current scientific consensus” on climate change should consider how resources are used.
    His remarks were denounced by Labour as providing “weasel excuses for climate deniers”, and sit at odds with environment secretary Michael Gove’s promise to meet climate activists from Extinction Rebellion, who have held protests across London.

    Speaking in the Commons, Dr Fox said: “It’s important that we take climate issues seriously.
    “Whether or not individuals accept the current scientific consensus on the causes of climate change, it is sensible for everyone to use finite resources in a responsible way.”

    Shadow international trade secretary Barry Gardiner said his comments were “not acceptable behaviour from a cabinet minister”.
    “It is shameful that in the week when a sixteen year old school child has educated MPs with such clarity about the climate emergency we face, we have a cabinet minister showing confusion and ignorance on such a staggering scale,” he said.
    “The government needs to act with the urgency that the science demands, not provide weasel excuses for climate deniers.”

    Wera Hobhouse, Liberal Democrat climate change spokesperson, echoed his concerns over the government acting as “apologists for climate change denial”.
    She said: “In a week where protesters have filled the streets of London and activist Greta Thunberg has visited parliament, it is outrageous that Liam Fox is now legitimising those who deny climate change.”

    Dr Fox later clarified the comments, which had already been circulated widely by the Department for International Trade (DIT).
    In a tweet, he said: “I have always taken environmental issues extremely seriously. The state of our planet should concern us all.
    “There is a clear scientific consensus on climate change, which I fully respect. Even those who don’t accept it should want to see our finite resources carefully managed.”
    TWEET…
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/liam-fox-climate-change-extinction-rebellion-london-protests-a8886676.html

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      pat

      26 Apr: UK Spectator: Liam Fox falls foul of the climate change cult
      by Ross Clark
      A question has come to me from a test paper in the A-level for 21st century ethics. Read the following statement and explain what is wrong with it: ‘It’s important that we take climate issues seriously. Whether or not individuals accept the current scientific consensus on the causes of climate change, it is sensible for everyone to use finite resources in a responsible way.’

      The correct answer, it turns out, is that the statement allows for the possibility that failing to accept the scientific consensus on climate change is somehow a legitimate position for an individual to hold, when of course it is not. The person making the statement should have made it clear that everyone must accept scientific consensus on climate change as well as use resources wisely – not be allowed to opt out of one of these essential duties as human beings.

      That, at any rate, appears to be the view of Barry Gardiner, the international trade secretary and Wera Hobhouse, who goes about with the title of the Liberal Democrats’ climate change spokeswoman. The statement above was in fact made by International Trade Secretary Liam Fox yesterday, and was immediately denounced by the opposition…READ ALL
      https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/04/liam-fox-falls-foul-of-the-climate-change-cult/

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    pat

    25 Apr: ClimateChangeNews: ‘A town needs its self-respect’: new coal mine to open in the UK
    Coal mining left Whitehaven in 1986, now it is about to return, bringing promises of jobs and division
    By Sophie Yeo for DeSmog UK
    Their line of thinking is that the consumption of coal is driven by demand; coal produced on the shores of Cumbria and used in the UK and Europe would simply displace coal mined further afield, from regions like Appalachia in the USA. The emissions saved by not having to ship this coal halfway around the world are therefore counted as emissions reductions in the county’s final analysis, to the tune of 5.3 million tonnes.

    But what swung the decision was the opportunities it created for local residents.
    West Cumbria Mining estimated in its planning application that, when running at full production, the Woodhouse Colliery would provide around 500 jobs…
    But it was enough to secure the almost unanimous support of local politicians from the Labour, Liberal Democrat and Conservative parties…

    And there is undoubtedly support for the mine.
    On the day I visit Whitehaven, the local newspaper includes two letters championing the development. “A town needs its self-respect,” writes Jeremy Godwin of Penrith, in The Whitehaven News. “Mining is a calling that some have and others don’t. ***Those who oppose it on the grounds of climate change are forecasting what might not occur. Were they to prevail, Whitehaven would remain in its ebb-tide, hard-up, and dejected.”…
    https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/04/25/town-needs-self-respect-new-coal-mine-open-uk/

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      Slithers

      They should do the same for welsh steaming coal instead of getting it from Siberia.
      There are enough Steam Engines on preserved railways to provide a steady demand and save all that foreign exchange as well as transport costs.

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    pat

    oh no, Daily Caller-connected fact-checker doubts climate! these people are nuts:

    25 Apr: Science Mag: E&E News: Facebook fact-checker has ties to climate doubt
    by Scott Waldman
    Facebook’s newest fact-checking partner is connected to an enterprise that was founded by a conservative Fox News host and that routinely promotes climate doubt.
    The social media giant is partnering with CheckYourFact.com to provide third-party oversight of news on its platform, Facebook announced last week. Check Your Fact is an affiliate of The Daily Caller, the right-leaning news outlet co-founded by Fox News host Tucker Carlson.

    Climate scientists and advocates are worried that the new partnership means climate articles will be downplayed on Facebook…
    The climate stories published by The Daily Caller create a false impression of the level of certainty about human-caused global warming within the climate science field, said Susan Joy Hassol, director of the science outreach nonprofit group Climate Communication.
    In particular, The Daily Caller has mastered a form of partial truth-telling that isn’t technically wrong but doesn’t give the full picture, either, she said.
    “You can really mislead people without outright lying, and in a way that’s more dangerous,” she said. “You can’t prove it false; you can’t say what they’ve said is inaccurate, that it’s a lie; you can’t say any of that. Then somebody would have to say it’s true — well, it’s not true because it’s not the whole truth.”

    Many of its stories are produced by the staff of the Daily Caller News Foundation, which receives funding from the Charles Koch Foundation, as well as a number of other conservative foundations that fund groups that attack climate science.
    Check Your Fact is wholly owned by The Daily Caller, and its work is routinely promoted by the news organization. While it is editorially independent and has its own staff, Check Your Fact receives funding from both The Daily Caller, as well as the Daily Caller News Foundation, according to the company.

    Joel Kaplan, a vice president at Facebook and a former White House aide to President George W. Bush, pushed for the company to partner with The Daily Caller for about a year, The Wall Street Journal reported last year. Kaplan, who is an ally of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, has sought changes at Facebook amid complaints by some conservatives that the company is biased against them.

    Check Your Fact is one of just six organizations that Facebook currently lists as fact-checkers in the United States. The others include Pulitzer Prize winners such as the Associated Press and PolitiFact. All of the fact-checkers have passed an assessment test implemented by the Poynter Institute’s International Fact-Checking Network…

    The Daily Caller, for its part, has a long history of giving its readers the impression that climate science is largely a political fight, rather than a rigorous scientific inquiry…
    Just this week, the news organization published a piece that called into doubt the accuracy of climate models. The piece claimed that “many climate scientists are skeptical of the extreme warming predicted by next-generation climate models.” The article cited a few skeptical researchers but did not sample the far greater range of researchers who have shown that climate predictions from years past have held up to actual observations. Scientists are largely confident in climate models, even as they seek to improve their forecasting of future conditions.
    In fact, the American Meteorology Society released a statement on climate change that included praise for the accuracy of climate models.
    “Climate models successfully replicate the global warming of the twentieth century, and they agree that further warming and other global and regional changes can be expected this century,” the statement read…

    Last fall, when the Trump administration released the National Climate Assessment, The Daily Caller trumpeted a series of headlines that framed the report as a controversial, political document — rather than one crafted over years through the Obama and Trump administrations and that was reliant on dozens of peer-reviewed studies…

    In one of its first stories on the report, the news organization relied on University of Colorado scientist Roger Pielke Jr., who believes humans are contributing to climate change but questions links between warming and extreme weather events.
    “‘EMBARRASSING’: CLIMATE EXPERT EXPLAINS WHAT’S WRONG WITH THE WHITE HOUSE’S NEW CLIMATE REPORT,” The Daily Caller stated.
    After the report was released, President Trump told reporters from Axios, while making an ocean wave motion with his hand, that climate goes up and down.
    “Is there climate change? Yeah. Will it go back like this, I mean, will it change back? Probably,” Trump said.
    News outlets around the world corrected Trump’s misstatement. The Daily Caller found a different angle: “REPORTERS PRESS TRUMP ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, HE ANSWERS WITH FACTS.”

    One frequent target of The Daily Caller’s reporting is Penn State University climate scientist Michael Mann. He said he was disturbed to hear that Facebook is giving the outlet a much broader platform on which to attack climate science.
    “It is truly disturbing to hear that Facebook, already known to be a dubious organization with an ethically challenged CEO, is partnering with ‘Daily Caller,’ which is essentially a climate change-denying Koch Brothers front group masquerading as a media outlet,” he said. “If they fail to cease and desist in outsourcing their ‘fact-checking’ to this bad faith, agenda-driven outlet, they will face serious repercussions.”…

    Hassol, the climate communications expert, said allowing The Daily Caller network and Check Your Fact to have oversight of news on a platform notorious for spreading false information is “a nightmare.”
    She worried that the platform could play a major role in highlighting climate uncertainty.
    “All they have to do is introduce a kernel of doubt. That’s been the playbook,” she said. “They don’t have to prove anything. All they have to do is create doubt and leave people questioning.”
    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/facebook-fact-checker-has-ties-news-outlet-promotes-climate-doubt

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    pat

    fact-challenged:

    26 Apr: Irish Times: Climate change reporting should be obligatory
    Government spends €4m on road safety ads and nothing on climate change
    by John Gibbons
    (John Gibbons is an environmental writer and commentator)
    By any objective standards, the global climate and biodiversity crisis should be front page news almost every day. Rationally, you would expect updates on the battle to maintain a habitable biosphere to also be leading most TV and radio news bulletins. We do not, it seems, live in a world governed by reason.

    Some years ago, a former editor of Fortune magazine ran a thought experiment: imagine that the world’s scientists had confirmed, with 90 per cent confidence, that a huge meteor would collide with the Earth within a decade. “The media would throw teams of reporters at it and give them the resources needed to follow it in extraordinary depth and detail”, argued Eric Pooley. “After all, the race to stop the meteor would be the story of the century.”

    For decades, David Attenborough has revealed the wonders of the natural world to millions. In recent years, his tone has grown dramatically darker. His Blue Planet II series brought the devastating impacts of plastic pollution on the once-pristine oceans forcefully to a global audience, and in so doing, triggered a genuine sea change in public attitudes.
    The plastics crisis pales into almost insignificance compared with how carbon dioxide emissions from human actions are drastically altering the very chemistry of the biosphere. Attenborough this week swung his editorial gaze to the wider carbon crunch, with a hard-hitting documentary on BBC titled: Climate change – the facts…

    Climate breakdown has been labelled the “problem from hell”…
    Since the climate crisis is covered only fitfully, and often simply framed as a dispute between opposing factions, it’s hardly a surprise that so many people have no idea just how dire the situation already is…
    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/climate-change-reporting-should-be-obligatory-1.3871618

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    pat

    25 Apr: EurActiv: Zero-emission EU industry ‘within reach’ but costly, study says
    By Frédéric Simon
    Bringing emissions from heavy industry down to net-zero by 2050 is possible but will require costly new production processes and a 25-60% increase in near-term capital investments to reach €40-50 billion per year, according to new research published on Thursday (25 April).
    Achieving net-zero emissions for European energy-intensive industries is “within reach” but time is running out, with 2050 only one investment cycle away, says a new study by Material Economics, a consultancy (LINK).

    “Different industrial strategies and pathways can be combined to achieve net-zero emissions,” says the study, produced with the Wuppertal institute in Germany and the Institute of European Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Brussels (VUB)…

    Just looking at the power sector, the transition to zero-emissions industry will require tripling the amount of electricity production, Cooper said, referring to the VUB/IES study. This is more than estimates by trade association Eurelectric, which says only a doubling of power production will be necessary.

    And these costs cannot be borne solely by companies in energy-intensive industries, which are facing fierce competition from within Europe as well as from low-cost countries like China.

    This is why supporting policies “will be essential” for companies to make the leap forward, says the study by Material Economics, which singles out affordable electricity and a more circular economy as the two most important factors to keep down the overall costs of the transition…
    https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-strategy-2050/news/zero-emission-eu-industry-within-reach-but-costly-study-says/

    links to 12-page study. on page 11:

    This study has been carried out by Material Economics. Wuppertal Institute and the Institute of European Studies at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel assisted with the analysis. The work has been supported by the Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership (CISL), Climate-KIC, the Energy Transitions Commission, the European Climate Foundation, RE:Source, and SITRA. The Steering Group has comprised Martin Porter and Eliot Whittington (CISL), Sira Saccani (Climate-KIC), Adair Turner and Faustine de la Salle (Energy Transitions Commission), Simon Wolf (European Climate Foundation), Johan Felix (RE:Source), and Mika Sulkinoja (SITRA). Research guidance have been provided by Dr. Jonathan Cullen, Prof. Stefan Lechtenböhmer, Prof. Lars J Nilsson, Dr. Clemens Rohde, and Tomas Wyns. The project team has comprised Anders Åhlén, Anna Teiwik, Cornelia Jönsson, Johan Haeger, Johannes Bedoire-Fivel, Michail Pagounis, and Stina Klingvall. We are very grateful for the contributions of these organisations and individuals, as well as the more than 80 other industry experts, researchers, policymakers, and business leaders who have contributed their knowledge and insight to this project.

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    pat

    McKibben has all the CAGW memes:

    25 Apr: The Nation: Bill McKibben: The ‘Debate’ Over Global Warming Was Always Phony
    But now we have a small window to stave off the worst-case climate-change scenario.
    By Jon Wiener (emeritus professor of US history at UC Irvine)
    Bill McKibben was one of the first people to warn of the dangers of global warming 30 years ago with his book The End of Nature…
    Now he has published a new book, Falter: Has the Human Game Begun to Play Itself Out? This interview has been edited and condensed…

    JW: Your new book, Falter, says things are looking pretty bad for humans right now. But of course there’s an opposing school of thought, which you can find in a dozen books and a hundred TED Talks, that says things are getting better. There’s less infant mortality today, people are living longer…[snip]

    Harvard psychologist Steven Pinker says people like you (and me) nevertheless just seem to “bitch, moan, whine, carp and kvetch.”

    BM: It’s not that he’s completely wrong. We have made enormous progress on certain things over the last 30 or 40 years, and that makes it all the more tragic that we’re now seeing that progress begin to disappear in the wake of very rapid physical deterioration. In fact, after more than a decade of steady decline in the number of hungry people on earth, that number went up last year — because of climate change and associated natural catastrophes. After a decade of fairly steady decline, the incidents of child labor went up again last year because of climate change and similar shocks that inevitably end up with impoverished families putting kids to work.

    Of course, if we keep on current trends, this is only going to get worse—much worse. Look what happened when 2 million migrants left Syria as a result of the civil war there—a civil war that, by the way, was triggered at least in part by the worst drought in the history… [snip]

    JW: Let’s talk about what is to be done now to slow the pace of climate change.

    BM: We’re in a climate moment now, and you can see it coming from all directions: whether it’s the Extinction Rebellion … millions of school kids who are walking out of school … young people pushing the Green New Deal here in this country …. divestment …. [snip]
    https://www.thenation.com/article/bill-mckibben-climate-change-global-warming/

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    pat

    ABC news radio seems to air a lot of NPR, so wouldn’t be surprised if this gets aired:

    25 Apr: NPR: 8 Ways To Teach Climate Change In Almost Any Classroom
    by Anya Kamenetz
    NPR/Ipsos conducted a national poll (LINK) recently and found that more than 8 in 10 teachers — and a similar majority of parents — support teaching kids about climate change.
    But in reality, it’s not always happening: Fewer than half of K-12 teachers told us that they talk about climate change with their children or students. Again, parents were about the same.
    The top reason that teachers gave in our poll for not covering climate change? “It’s not related to the subjects I teach,” 65% said…

    The “reality of human-caused climate change” is mentioned in at least 36 state standards, according to an analysis done for NPR Ed by Glenn Branch, the deputy director at the National Center for Science Education. But it typically appears only briefly — and most likely just in earth science classes in middle and high school. And, Branch says, that doesn’t even mean that every student in those states learns about it: Only two states require students to take earth or environmental science classes to graduate from high school.

    Joseph Henderson teaches in the environmental studies department at Paul Smith’s College in upstate New York. He studies how climate change is taught in schools and believes it needs to be taught across many subjects…

    Here are some thoughts about how to broach the subject with students, no matter what subject you teach…
    https://www.npr.org/2019/04/25/716359470/eight-ways-to-teach-climate-change-in-almost-any-classroom

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    pat

    Global Optimism!!! shame on Figueres and, even moreso, David Attenborough:

    26 Apr: Guardian: ‘Outrage is justified’: David Attenborough backs school climate strikers
    Exclusive: broadcaster says older generations have done terrible things and should listen to young
    by Damian Carrington
    In an interview with the former UN climate chief Christiana Figueres, the broadcaster and naturalist dismissed critics of the widely praised global movement of school strikes as cynics.
    “[Young people] understand the simple discoveries of science about our dependence upon the natural world,” he said. “My generation is no great example for understanding – we have done terrible things.”
    The protests by young people were enormously encouraging, Attenborough said. “That is the one big reason I have for feeling we are making progress. If we were not making progress with young people, we are done.”

    [snip]

    Figueres, who works with Global Optimism to create social and environmental change, said: “Greta and the other young people are justifiably furious with us. They say we have been at this for 30 years and we still haven’t solved this. Young people are calling us adults to account.”…
    [snip]

    She has also backed the Extinction Rebellion protests that ended on Thursday after a week of peaceful direct action in the UK. “Civil disobedience happens when the injustice gets too great,” she said. “That is where we are.”…ETC
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/26/david-attenborough-backs-school-climate-strikes-outrage-greta-thunberg

    [Pat can you post an empty comment with the word "fraud", then check back, please? - Jo]

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    Bill in Oz

    I was listening to Naked Scientists just now.
    They had a discussion about ‘Phrenology”
    And “Phrenologists’
    The pseudo science that was
    Popular from around 1810-1840.

    And then exposed as fake quackey.

    I have a suggestion
    Whenever we wish to talk about
    Climate Science & Climate Scientist
    Any time
    Let’s instead say & write
    ‘Climate phrenology’
    & ‘Climate Phrenologists’.

    Mockery is a powerful weapon !

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      Serp

      Gentle mockery is really the only available weapon when opposing points of view based on faith and irrationality –it’s a waste of time and effort to try to reason a person out of a position arrived at without the assistance of reason.

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      Roy Hogue

      Climate phrenology might just be the truth of the matter in the first place. So it wouldn’t even be mockery but we’d be taking it seriously while not taking it seriously.

      How could we lose?

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    Roy Hogue

    “For these small businesses to survive 15 weeks without sales is unlikely.”

    This might as well say,

    The consumer is not so stupid as to want to throw away a financial advantage if they can get it.

    Here in the once Golden State they think that giving away a “climate credit” twice a year on everyone’s electricity bill will encourage spending the money on energy efficiency improvements. But I’m already more energy efficient than every neighbor around me for miles. I had the house insulated in the 1970s, walls and attic and then double pane windows and door. I could not do much more if I spent 10 times the climate credit on it. But if California is stupid enough to give away money, I’m just “stupid” enough to take it and smile. And if I knew there would be a rebate again for going solar I would be just as “stupid” and wait for the rebate — that is, if I wanted solar in the first place.

    Funny thing, human nature, we always try to work things to our advantage. And the only people on Earth who can’t see this are the “geniuses” who haunt the halls of government.

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      Roy Hogue

      Their “genius” of course, lies in having set up the condition now by offering rebates in the first place. But geniuses are seldom willing to let a free marked make things work about as well as they’re ever going to work.

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