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No kidding – humans happier on sunny days, perfect temp is 25C, freezing days similar to terrorist attacks on US mood

New research looking at three and a half billion social media posts from tens of millions of individuals showed the very unshocking result that people are happiest on sunny clear days around 25C. Facebook and Twitter comments on those days used more positive, fun terms. Days below 20, above 30, that were cloudy or had a humidity above 80% put people in a less happy mood. So did terrorist events, and the effects of weather were pretty comparable. Temperatures that are below freezing put a real dampener on expressions of positive sentiment. (The next ice age is going to be no fun.)

Peak positive occurs in the mid to high twenties and on days with zero mm of rain.

ENSO, ONI Graph, 2009-2018

The effect of temperature and rain on Facebook and Twitter moods in the US.

Some people have a sunny disposition, others have cloudy faces and everyone over two knows what those expressions mean.

If our aim is to maximize human happiness and productivity, shouldn’t the UN Weather Control Committee (IPCC) be aiming to reduce freezing days and maximize the zone of 25C days on areas with the highest population density?

Judging by this awesome Hedonometer graph, during the hottest ever year of 2016, people were pretty happy.

Hedonometer, Happiness, Twitter, graph.

…Hedonometer, Happiness, Twitter, graph.

Just cross checking that with the ENSO effect, perhaps we should also be working to increase El Nino years?

As for terrorism, conditions that were below freezing were comparable to the Sept 11 anniversary (in the US) and actual attacks, floods and earthquakes were even worse. Clearly, Daylight Savings time should only start, and never end. We all need the extra hour of sleep.

Terrorism, cold weather, mood.

 

But keep in mind the y axis scale on the top graph. We’re talking about 2 percent less “happy thoughts” on a zero degree day. It sounds tiny, though on a national scale I expect it would translate to slightly higher cortisol levels, more stress, less health, and lower productivity.

Joe Pinkstone at the Daily Mail sees the cold threat: Cold weather is MORE depressing to people than a terrorist attack, claim scientists

Alan Martin at Alphr warns us about the heat: High temperatures make us hotheads: Study finds the weather impacts how we “talk” on Twitter and Facebook. “Blame it on the sunshine”.

A few caveats:

  • Sarcasm and irony would skew these results and there “might” be some of that on Twitter. ;-)
  • Researchers think the results may underestimate the effect of weather because they are looking at a self selecting younger slice of the population which use Twitter and Facebook.
  • They also acknowledge that their research was only done on the US where air conditioners are common, and a study of poorer nations may have an even more pronounced effect.

From the Daily Mail:

Dr Obradovich said: ‘We conducted the largest ever investigation into the relationship between meteorological conditions and the sentiment of human expressions. ‘We find that how we express ourselves is shaped by the weather outside. ‘Adverse weather conditions – hot and cold temperatures, precipitation, added humidity, and increased cloud cover – reduce the sentiment of human expressions across billions of social media posts drawn from millions of US residents.’ In particular, experts found that rain was associated with a more negatively expressed sentiment.

The study found positive expressions increase up to 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees F), but stops short and declines as the temperature goes over 30 degrees (86 degrees F). Days with a humidity level of 80 per cent or higher were associated with negative expressions, as were days with a high amount of cloud cover.

Why does this research matter? From the Introduction in the paper:

Mood and emotional state support human physical, psychological, and economic well-being. Positive emotions are associated with improved physiological factors such as cortisol levels and cardiovascular functioning [1] and amplify cognitive performance and mental flexibility [2]. They can also increase social connectedness and perceived social support [3] and may augment income and economic success [4]. Emotional states can also be transmitted through social networks [5,6], amplifying the broad-scale effects of altered individual emotions.

Prior work suggests that environmental factors–and ambient meteorological conditions in particular–may substantively impact emotional state. However, previous empirical investigations of this relationship have found conflicting results. Early studies found large associations between meteorological conditions and mood [7,8] but were limited by small sample sizes and limited generalizability. A number of studies in the most recent decade have found small to negligible associations [911], while others document associations that vary across individuals [12,13], associations observed at high levels of aggregation [14], or associations that are contingent on other factors [15]. A still more recent large-scale longitudinal analysis reports robust linkages between daily weather variation and reported well-being [16]. Whether, and if so, how meteorological variables shape human emotions remains an open question.

 h/t Climate Depot

REFERENCE

Baylis P, Obradovich N, Kryvasheyeu Y, Chen H, Coviello L, Moro E, et al. (2018) Weather impacts expressed sentiment. PLoS ONE 13(4): e0195750. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0195750  [Full free access]

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No kidding - humans happier on sunny days, perfect temp is 25C, freezing days similar to terrorist attacks on US mood, 9.7 out of 10 based on 35 ratings

118 comments to No kidding – humans happier on sunny days, perfect temp is 25C, freezing days similar to terrorist attacks on US mood

  • #
    William

    Give me a lovely Autumn or Spring Saturday with no rain and I am pretty happy to start with. Then I play golf.

    150

    • #
      el gordo

      May is looking good all over Australia.

      ‘The latest seasonal outlooks issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on Thursday shows that days and nights are likely to be warmer than usual for most of Australia during May.’

      90

      • #
        William

        They often say that el gordo, and then we turn out to have cooler that usual temperatures. I think they are hoping each time that it is a self fulfilling prophesy rather than a forecast!

        182

        • #
          el gordo

          Yeah, the media beat up the story before the event and when it doesn’t happen they ignore it, leaving the people with the impression it was warmer than average.

          152

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Yes the BOM have developed their own “Gore Effect”, a type of climate critical refection if you will.

          61

        • #
          sophocles

          Well, they have a fifty-fifty chance of being right.
          Or wrong.

          It’s usually the forecast of the rank amateur: taking a punt but not wanting to be wrong.

          40

        • #
          William

          So yesterday it was raining and cool when I headed out, it cleared up early in the rain but remained cool and a bit breezy, and my golf was good so I felt good. Bring on the cooling!

          10

      • #
        el gordo

        Here is BoM’s seasonal forecast and for all the sun worshippers you’ll be happy to know the drivers are ‘mostly neutral’.

        http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary

        They don’t dare mention SAM, the elephant in the room.

        52

        • #
          Glen Michel

          STR seems to have strengthened somewhat- a transitional autumnal response. But wait, there are numerous incursions of cold southern Maritime coming. Watch out folks the old cooling is the new warming!

          51

    • #
      Hivemind

      You know what they say in England. A warm, sunny day after two wet and miserable days is called Monday.

      110

    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Give me a lovely Autumn or Spring Saturday with no rain and I am pretty happy to start with. Then I play golf.

      Give me a break. This is more research for the sake of research. Doesn’t the world have much more significant problems to spend our time and money on?

      71

      • #
        Glen Michel

        This is serious science Roy.The type of serious science that MSM loves. Blancmange in a condom.

        50

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          I was just thinking the other day how is it that the Left cant leave well alone, rather they just need some form of invented crisis to feel relevent…idiots….

          70

      • #
        sophocles

        They are given a quota of papers to have published every year. Sometimes it’s pathetic “research,” other times it’s wringing yet another paper out of some badly tortured data. Publish or perish. Every now and then, it’s a good one.

        30

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      Golf looks like a good game, so I tried it. Soon decided to stick to the games where I missed the ball because it moved.

      50

      • #
        Annie

        My husband likewise, cricket or hockey! Personally I loathe all ball games, probably because I was always useless at them (except squash, oddly enough). Sailing was far preferable; dinghy racing on the sea seemed a much more sensible pastime.

        25C with low humidity and a bit of sun and breeze has always been the best weather to me.

        20

  • #
    Dennis

    So are rooftop solar panels and other solar installations.

    [wink]

    60

  • #

    “Research” resulting in a “study”. Published, of course. A “paper”. With graphs! All based on gabble to prove the bleeding obvious.

    Sorry, but we still have to do it. We have to shut down the majority of university departments. They are taking up too much space which could be given over to parking lots or volley ball courts…or any flaming thing at all which might be of some flaming use to someone.

    Shut ‘em. Just…shut ‘em. No more.

    211

  • #

    Sydney Harbour on a Summer’s Day.

    Light glancing off the water below
    the bridge, overhead a sky of endless
    blue – what is it about blue that merges
    mind and eye in a hazy journey into
    infinity? Here’s sublime without fierceness
    of storms, the peaceful heavenliness of
    Sydney Harbour on a summer’s day.
    Sublime combines with the familiar,
    a colourful ferry with revellers churns
    its way towards the north shore, white
    wake furrowing irreverently the sea’s blue
    opacity, yachts skittering like gulls, houses
    crowding the harbour, eager for a glimpse of
    heaven – Sydney Harbour on a summer’s day.

    130

    • #
      yarpos

      I had one perfect day on board a friends sail boat, many decades ago. Wonderful day , but I recall even back then, by afternoon it was crowded and many of those on the water were well under the effects of alcohol and assorted drugs.

      20

  • #
    PeterPetrum

    I’m in Singapore at the moment – it is 35C and it is pouring wet – and I’m not happy. So there you are, positive confirmation research shows the original hypothesis is correct – by a count of one.

    110

    • #
      PeterS

      I love the people in Singapore but I hate their weather.

      70

      • #
        Glen Michel

        I’m a bit over Singapore chilli crab after 40 odd years.I need a break! Maybe change mud crab for Alaskan spider- that is one COOL crab.

        40

        • #
          PeterPetrum

          I had my first chilli crab for about 30 years last night, in an open air restaurant on the coast, accompanied by a jug of Tiger beer. Hard to beat (Scientific note; it was 25C and dry, so I was happy anyway, thus second proof of the above theory.)

          40

    • #
      Yonniestone

      In the name of Petrum Dendochronology I declare the science settled!

      70

      • #
        PeterPetrum

        Thank you, Yonnie. Good to have original true scientific work recognised on this forum.

        30

        • #
          Yonniestone

          Peer reviewed too Peter.

          I’m compiling a psychological paper on warmists regarding why they revert to base instincts when losing debates.

          Thinking of calling it “Recursive Yonnie”

          50

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      I had an uncle in Singapore in the war. He said the main reason they didn’t all die was that the climate was perfect.

      30

  • #
    Turtle

    Hence the term “beautiful day”.

    Rarely applied to a cold one.

    80

    • #
      PeterS

      I often see weather people on TV proudly announcing how it will be a “beautiful day” on days forecast to have hot temperatures. Yet they whine about global warming. Either they are fools or schizophrenic, or more likley both.

      121

      • #
        el gordo

        You’re thinking of cognitive dissonance.

        ‘In the field of psychology, cognitive dissonance is the mental discomfort (psychological stress) experienced by a person who simultaneously holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values.’

        101

        • #
          Mary E

          Cognitive dissonance is, I think, a fancy term for “of two minds” – indecision, unable to decide, torn; it seems people suffer from indecision and fret over the littlest things.

          People will often hold contradictory beliefs, and quite happily, as long as they don’t have to pick one over the other. Some people can hold/experience many contradictory thoughts, beliefs, ideas, ideals and values without being uncomfortable.

          60

          • #
            el gordo

            ‘….without being uncomfortable.’

            Hmmm …. so in a small friendly gathering someone mentions climate change, what is your response?

            41

          • #
            Yonniestone

            To add to this Cognitive dissonance is also the process of thought that is necessary to justify a position of rationalization on a particular conflict of ideas, without this ability people would be in a constant state of confusion unable to function……..like the left.

            30

        • #
          Ian1946

          George Orwell called it double think.

          100

      • #
        Annie

        Peter S, I’m afraid that is a misuse of the term ‘schizophrenic’. I know and have known people who actually are schizophrenic and it is a nightmare illness. One I know is never free of voices telling him how evil he is and how the police are coming for him. This is despite the best available treatment. It is no surprise that many commit suicide to get away from it but this particular person has somehow resisted it after being brought up in a Catholic school and having been taught that suicide is a mortal sin. He cannot even find relief that way…it is dreadful.

        72

      • #
        WXcycles

        We had some local Channel 7 fool tonight saying that “unfortunately the cool Autumn weather has set in, in NQ”.

        The forecast range was 19 to 30 with a clear sky with low humidity for the next 3 days. Oh yeah, that’s unfortunate–;and she wasn’t even joking.

        We can always count on seven Channel 7 to whine endlessly about climate-change, and freak out about the imaginary reef-apokylips at every opportunity, and to have some hysterical tosser from JCU on a segment to provide the confirnation bias stupor dosage.

        But yes, we’re in the beautiful months of WX. It’s been a great and very cool low humidity summer, wish it was like that every year.

        110

        • #
          David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

          And some call it “drought”.
          Some rain would be welcome out this way.
          Cheers,
          Dave B

          70

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘…wish it was like that every year.’

          Your wish has been granted, blocking high pressure is bringing a south-easterly airflow and this set to continue for at least a decade.

          50

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I’m amazed and surprised that they could waste money on a study like this but then again nothing surprises when it comes to CAGW .

    72

  • #
    Dave

    Amazing

    It seems like Facebook users are more reactionary than Twitter users!

    50

    • #
      Yonniestone

      You should apply for a grant to study this………

      70

      • #
        sophocles

        Yonniestone: give him five minutes to work out exactly what he’s going to study, another five minutes to work out how it’s going to be studied, a further five minutes to think about the conclusions to be expected then half an hour to write the proposal. Can’t rush into these things, y’know.

        30

      • #

        Why not, everybody else does. It’s the IPCC way. (

        20

  • #
    Lank

    On wattsupwiththat there is a neat review on the US cities that are about to record their coldest April in recorded history – no smiles there!
    I can’t wait to read the green press on these record ‘climate changes’.

    131

    • #
      el gordo

      Here is a snippet from that story.

      ‘While doing some number crunching for Detroit Metropolitan International Airport, it wasn’t an eye opener that April has been about 10 F below seasonal norms. The normal monthly average daytime high is 59.1 F, we only got 49.7 as an average. Another stat that won’t come as a surprise is the lack of warmth — we have yet to crack 70ºF more than once this April in Detroit, Chicago and Buffalo!’

      131

  • #
    Steve

    On sunny days don’t people have better things to do? Sad.

    60

  • #
    a happy little debunker

    I wonder if this it more about Vitamin D, than temperature?

    90

  • #

    An observation…

    The new data empires, with the lines between government agency and booming but profit-independent private enterprise thoroughly blurred, are suspect if not sinister.

    Note how this “study” or “paper” is leading us right back into the lap of those data empires. Just in case we were switching off?

    The right has abandoned thrift, the left has abandoned peace…and we are all abandoning privacy. We are throwing it away. The only Facebook “study” we need is on how to wipe such surveillance from our lives.

    Did you hear that, Alexa?

    130

  • #
    Peter C

    My Complaint to the ABC:

    The story was the reproachment between North and South Korea. Kim Jong Un crossed the border (DMZ) to meet the South Korean president

    Subject: Korea; The demilitarized Zone
    Your Comments: Did Tamara Oudyn mean to say that the DMZ was created when Japan withdrew at the end of the second world war (ABC News 7pm 27 Apr2018). I suppose that she has no idea herself but some one in the ABC news department should know some history.

    172

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Yep. They do.

      Post-modernist history = whatever you want it to be.

      A bit more reading if you are a tad curious:

      https://www.allaboutworldview.org/postmodern-history.htm

      A little bit “churchy” but nevertheless, pretty close to the mark.

      80

    • #
      WXcycles

      Yep, and some ABC types gave you red thumbs for pointing that out.

      92

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      I am thinking that the current lull in the war between NK and the rest of the world is a just a temporary arrangement. I think its just a tactical ploy to buy time to further thier nuclear arms devolpment

      China will retake Taiwan when it all kicks off again…watch this space…

      11

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        I’ll be watching Steve.

        However, I doubt that China would risk such a move even if North Korea reverts to its old self. It’s far more likely that Kim Jong-un will do as he’s told by Chairman Xi. And China (the People’s Republic of China) will leave Formosa (the Republic of China) alone – but continue to be bellicose about what it proposes to do.

        Why? Probably because China needs the USA trade more than the USA needs the China trade. Chairman Xi cannot afford to damage the Chinese economy, given its parlous current state. Nope. North Korea is about to join the world community of nations and Donald Trump will never be recognized for his personal and massive achievement.

        30

        • #
          OroginalSteve

          China wont be able to help themselves….loss of national face losing Taiwan a while back….the Chinese are very patient and not to be underestimated….

          00

  • #
    pat

    as someone with a vegetable and herb garden, I find rainy days to be simply wonderful.

    26 Apr: American Spectator: Special Report: The Scott Pruitt Show Trial
    by George Neumayr
    What makes this complaint even more phony and ironic is the real cause of it: anger at Pruitt for saving taxpayer money by eliminating unnecessary staff and destructive job-killing programs at the EPA. The EPA is crawling with extreme environmentalists who earn fat salaries while doing nothing more than pushing left-wing activism at the expense of the oil and gas industry and other industries crucial to America’s economic success. Pruitt is trying to get rid of these anti-business lobbyists, and the environmental left is furious about it.

    Under Obama, the EPA was an annex of the Sierra Club and its staffers spent their days devising schemes to undermine business in the name of ideology masquerading as “science.” Indeed, they would openly brag about this unscrupulous activism. In 2010, one of Obama’s regional EPA administrators, Al Armendariz, admitted that he told his staff to scare the hell out of businesses…READ ON
    https://spectator.org/the-scott-pruitt-show-trial/

    thick with propaganda:

    4 Apr: Yale Climate Connections: Climate change communication and activism
    April brought the 2nd March for Science and the 48th anniversary of Earth Day. As the month ends, here are some titles to help with the work that must follow: communicating climate change
    Last June, Yale Climate Connections published a two-part bookshelf devoted to books and reports on climate change communication. The last book in that selection was published in April 2017.

    This bookshelf highlights books published since then and includes recent titles on climate change activism. It includes two new reference works on climate change communication. A separate review of one of these three-volume sets, Handbook of Climate Change Communication, will be posted this summer. The descriptions and links for both of these major releases are at the end of this list…

    (example)
    Carbon Capitalism and Communication: Confronting Climate Crisis, edited by Benedetta Brevini and Graham Murdock (Palgrave Macmillan 2017, 259 pages, $34.99 paperback)
    This volume examines the role of communication in contributing to and contesting the current climate crisis. There is now widespread agreement that even if increases in carbon emissions are kept to the current international target the climate crisis will continue to intensify. This book brings together, for the first time, state-of-the-art research with activists’ interventions to place debate around climate crisis within the wider conversation about the changing relations between communications and contemporary capitalism. Contributors include Naomi Klein, Michael Mann, Alan Rusbridger, Vincent Mosco, Jodi Dean, and leading figures in Greenpeace and 350.org…READ ALL
    https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/04/books-on-climate-change-communication-and-activism/

    80

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      “Scare the hell out of business” : as if business wasn’t complex and hard enough without the superimposed burden of the fantasy of Climate Change.

      It suggests that the people formerly running the EPA had never experienced a life of toil and struggle familiar to most of us.

      Privilege and cosiness lead to a disconnected approach that ultimately helps no one.

      There is no free ride.

      KK

      60

  • #

    People are happier at the beginning of the holidays than at the end!
    People are happier at the beginning of the month than at the end!
    People are happier in bed at first than after x wedding time!
    People are happier at the beginning of the meal than when the bill arrives!
    People are happier at birth than at the end of life!

    40

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Good points, but my birth wasn’t happy it was dark and cosy then bright and cold then some stranger grabs me and slaps me on the butt!

      After that its been pretty good though.

      70

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Yonnie:

        With an election coming and both parties spending our money as fast as they can, it can only be a matter of months before we are levied for a Strange Butt Slapper Service.

        40

        • #
          Yonniestone

          If Victoria votes the Cultural Marxist party back in no amount of sunshine and 25C days will cure the depression of those with open eyes.

          61

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            No, but we may see refugees leaving Victoriastan fleeing Communism, instead of being clumate refugees…..

            20

  • #
    Ruairi

    After Optimum M.W.P.,
    A Pessimum, climatically,
    When foul weather took hold,
    Bringing L.I.A. cold,
    All ignored by the I.P.C.C..

    130

  • #
    RAH

    OT but I have a rant. On Thursday morning at 04:30 as I crossed from Detroit, MI to Windsor, ON Canada via the Ambassador Bridge. The traffic crossing to the US side was backed all the way up across the bridge and at least 5 blocks into Windsor. At the US commercial vehicle customs check all lanes were full. It took me 27 minutes to get to the Canadian customs booth that morning. On the way back into the US this morning at 03:00 going over the same bridge coming back into the US it took me 1 1/4 hour to get to the booth. There have time times when I have crossed into Canada that it was backed up so far that I have sat on the shoulder of I-75 a 1/2 mile from the exit for the bridge and it has taken me 2 hours to get to the customs booths on the Canadian side. So it gets very bad both ways though on average it takes much longer to get through coming back into the US. This has been going on for all the eight years that I have done loads to Canada and back into the US.

    We’re talking 100′s of diesel trucks idling in the lines! Think if a cost in fuel, the cost to commerce (every minute a driver sits costs everybody from the driver to the receiver money) and of course the cost to the environment. If either the Canadian or US government gave a hoot about pollution and the environment this situation would have been addressed long ago but based on my 8 years experience and over 100 boarder crossings in that time it is getting worse not better.

    131

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      You have shown the core attitude of modern environmental movement: Tokenism.

      You only need to be “seen” to be taking care of the environment, actually achieving anything just doesn’t click with the voters.

      60

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      RAH your right to highlight this issue of inefficient road and transport systems. This sector of the economy probably uses a good quarter of all energy in a typical modern day economy. There has to be large gains to society if this problems is addressed objectively. Unfortunately I think that won’t happen soon, as it’s all in the too hard basket for out politicians.
      We will just carry on regardless.
      GeoffW

      40

  • #
    Greg Cavanagh

    They sure do invent some strange studies.

    31

    • #
      Yonniestone

      Coming soon to a lab near you:

      - Does food poisoning make people unwell?
      - Hypochondria, whats really the problem?
      - The biggest trigger words for the left, Tony Abbott.
      - Monkeys or ALP throwing poo, whats funnier?
      - Confusing acronyms or WTF is that?
      - Is confirmation bias real or does everyone know this?
      - Erectile Dysfunction WUWT?

      50

  • #
    Robber

    Redo the research, this can’t be right. Only a 1% change in happiness with over 10 degree change in temperature?
    We all know that warmistas go ballistic over a 0.1 degree sign of global warming.
    And we are ruining economies over a possible 1.5 degree increase since pre-industrial times.
    But maybe people in pre-industrial times were happier without cars, electricity, air-conditioning, Facebook, Twitter. More funding required to recreate life and happiness measures in 1750.

    60

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Recreate life and happiness of the 1750s?

      Solution: emigrate to South Australia. However, you’ll need to be quick because the C19th is about to dawn now that the crow-eaters have woken up and removed the enviro-fascist Labor socialists.

      Eventually they’ll manage to join the rest of us in the C21st if they stay awake, lock Labor’s fascists in the dumpster and build a power station that actually producers reliable electricity.

      10

  • #
    Robber

    Delingpole: Earth in ‘Greatest Two-Year Cooling Event in a Century’ Shock.
    Our planet has just experienced the most extreme two-year cooling event in a century. But where have you seen this reported anywhere in the mainstream media? From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era.

    82

  • #
    David Maddison

    Even though this “research” was likely funded under the guise of supposed anthropogenic global they may unwittingly support the view that if global warming really was happening people would be more happy and productive as they were during the Minoan, Roman and Medieval warm periods. Sadly, the reality is that we are likely in a cooling phase.

    52

  • #
    pat

    have recent articles about “COLD” weather been written in a peculiar style, such as the following, which makes no sense to me:

    26 Apr: KAAL-TV ABC6 Minnesota: Coldest April on Record a Shoe-In
    April 2018 WILL go down as the coldest April in history. Despite there being four full days of April left to go through, we could hit 100° for a high each of those days and it still wouldn’t be enough to lift us up from the deficit the first three weeks of April put us in.

    As of April 25th, the average daily temperature for the month was 30.7°, nearly 7 full degrees higher than the number 1 spot. Taking the current forecast into account we’ll end the month around 33.1°.
    http://www.kaaltv.com/news/coldest-april-on-record-a-shoe-in/4883186/

    30

    • #
      pat

      again, this looks like an attempt to downplay the COLD:

      25 Apr: Weather Channel: 5 Things We’ll Remember About the Weather in April 2018
      By Linda Lam
      ▪ Record cold and snow has prevailed across the northern tier of the United States in April
      ▪ Meanwhile, the Southwest has seen near-record-warm temperatures.
      ▪ Parts of the southern Plains were plagued by extreme fire conditions.
      ▪ On the plus side, the cooler conditions have led to fewer tornadoes than average.

      The reason for the record-setting and noteworthy weather was due to a familiar jet stream pattern, featuring a southward plunge of the jet stream over the eastern U.S., with a northward bulge over much of the West.

      This brought rounds of significantly colder-than-average temperatures to portions of the Plains, Midwest and Northeast, while warm and dry conditions prevailed from the Southwest into portions of the southern Plains…

      1. Record Cold Dominated Plains, Northern Tier
      The persistent cold resulted in the coldest April on record in more than 40 locations across 13 states, based on data through April 23.
      Numerous other cities are expected to place in the top five for coldest average April temperature on record.
      The record cold has even been prevalent in areas that are known for bitter winters. This includes International Falls, Minnesota, where it has been the coldest April on record so far with an average temperature of 27.4 degrees for the month, more than 10 degrees colder than average.

      Minneapolis has experienced an average temperature more than 13 degrees below average, resulting in its coldest April in 146 years of records.

      Farther south, Tulsa, Oklahoma, is tied for its coldest April on record, with an average temperature of 51.5 degrees. Locations farther east have also seen abnormally chilly conditions – New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport, for example, is tied for coldest April. This is not true in Central Park due to the shorter record length at JFK of 62 years.
      Temperatures have also been far below average in parts of the South, including Memphis, where a top-five coldest April is likely…

      2. Unusual Spring Snowfall Set Records
      The record-breaking cold was also accompanied by record-breaking snow. When disturbances or areas of low pressure moved through the Midwest and Northeast, many areas saw precipitation fall as snow, given the chilly conditions that gripped the northern tier of the U.S.
      Winter Storm Xanto was a snowstorm for the record books in parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes given its mid-April timing.

      Xanto brought 15.8 inches of snowfall to Minneapolis/St. Paul April 13-16, making it the heaviest April snowstorm on record there. Xanto was also the heaviest April snowstorm on record for Green Bay, Wisconsin, where 24.2 inches of snow fell, and in Wausau, Wisconsin, where 20.7 inches was measured. Blizzard conditions were even observed in Green Bay.
      The heaviest one-day April snow total of 13.7 inches was recorded in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, courtesy of Xanto.

      However, Xanto was just one round of snow in April. Multiple snowfalls resulted in the snowiest April on record for Minneapolis/St. Paul, Green Bay and Sioux Falls. All three locations beat the previous record by a significant margin…

      3. Head to the Southwest For Warmth
      While April seemed more like winter to many in the northern and eastern areas of the U.S., it felt more like late-spring or even summer in the Southwest…

      4. Extreme Fire Weather Conditions Developed in Southern Plains, Southwest…ETC

      5. Severe Thunderstorms and Tornadoes Were Lacking in the Plains
      One good thing about the overall weather pattern in April is that it has not been conducive to severe weather outbreaks. Warm temperatures, a moist atmosphere and a deep southward plunge of the jet stream are ideal for severe weather outbreaks in the Plains but have been missing, for the most part, this month.
      As a result, through April 24, only 267 tornadoes have been reported in the U.S. this year, well below the 10-year average of 426 from 2005 to 2015, according to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center…
      However, this lack of tornadoes in the Plains will likely end shortly as the calendar turns to May and it is important THE END
      https://weather.com/news/weather/news/2018-04-25-april-2018-record-cold-snow-warm-unusual-weather

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    pat

    27 Apr: National Review: Meteorologists Expect Coldest April on Record
    By Jack Crowe
    April 2018 is expected to be the coldest month of April in the U.S. since reliable record keeping began in 1895.
    The historically low spring temperatures have created problems for farmers in the northern plains and Midwest as the unseasonably cold soil prevents them from planting their crops on time.
    Agricultural experts expect that, as in years past, the cold spring temperatures portend a lower yield when farmers harvest in the fall.

    Astonishingly, much of the northern plains and Northeast was colder than Anchorage, Alaska in the first half of April.
    A winter storm in mid-April sealed the month as the snowiest on record in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minn., Sioux Falls, S.D., Green Bay, Wis., Wausau, Wis., and Alpena, Mich.
    In fact, Green Bay, Wis. doubled its previous snow record of 15.1 inches, which was set in 1907…

    With four days still remaining in the month, April is all-but-guaranteed to be the coldest on record for the U.S.
    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/meteorologists-expect-coldest-april-on-record/

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    pat

    unbelievable:

    27 Apr: Met Office UK: Rainfall changes for northern Britain
    A scientific study has given an initial view of potentially significant changes in rainfall patterns across northern England and Scotland by 2100.

    An experimental approach using the Met Office Unified Model with a resolution of 1.5km provides a first look at changes in rainfall that could affect Scotland and northern England in both summer and winter several decades into the future. The 1.5km model allows us to look at changes in hourly rainfall at kilometre scales, not captured by traditional climate models

    The study (LINK) ― published in the journal Climate Dynamics ― showed that during winter daily average rainfall would increase at the end of the 21ˢᵗ Century for most parts of northern Britain, assuming a pathway leading to high greenhouse gas emissions ― the so-called: RCP8.5 pathway.
    In contrast, summer daily average rainfall is projected to see large decreases across northern Britain, with many areas ― including the Central belt of Scotland ― experiencing a reduction of 25―50%.

    However, rainfall events in both summer and winter are likely to become more extreme. So-called high-intensity events, with rainfall of 10mm or more per hour are projected to become more frequent, while lower-intensity events are projected to become less frequent…

    Steven Chan, a visiting scientist with the Met Office Hadley Centre, is the paper’s lead author…
    The research builds on an earlier Met Office study (published in Nature Climate Change, Kendon et al., 2014)(LINK) which focussed on southern Britain…
    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/rainfall-changes-for-northern-britain

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    • #
      mikewaite

      This makes me really angry.
      There have been papers recently that show that the RCP8.5 scenario is not going to happen .
      This was the subject of a recent WUWT post :
      https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/03/03/time-to-cool-it-the-u-n-s-moribund-high-end-global-warming-emissions-scenario/
      by Patrick Michaels of the Cato institute:
      (Patrick J. Michaels is the director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute. Michaels is a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists and was program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society. He was a research professor of Environmental Sciences at University of Virginia for 30 years. Michaels was a contributing author and is a reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007).

      The reason that it will not happen is the rise of use of more efficient gas for energy production and the slowdown in coal use.
      To quote from the WUWT article:
      -”The substitution of shale gas for coal continues to drive down the “carbon (dioxide) intensity” of developing and developed economies. This is the amount of carbon (dioxide) emitted per unit of GDP, usually normalized to 2010 dollars adjusted for their purchasing power in a given economy. In the United States, in the quarter-century beginning in 1990, the drop was a remarkable: from 0.9kg of carbon dioxide/dollar to 0.35, or over 60%.
      The imminent dethroning of King Coal is obvious in the BP data, which leads to another problem: Justin Ritchie and Hadi Dowlatabadi from University of British Columbia recently found there simply isn’t enough coal to support RCP8.5. Nor were they conservatively looking at so-called “recoverable” reserves; instead, they toted up all geologically identified coal around the planet”-.

      The people writing the report mentioned by Pat must know that their RCP8.5 scenario is dubious but they persist . Why?
      And why is there no pressure for greater honesty in Govt supported research?

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    pat

    WOW:

    26 Apr: New Statesman: The Met Office is planning a new heatwave definition for the climate change era
    The recent bout of hot weather was deemed to be a “hotspell” not a “heatwave”.
    by India Bourke
    Speaking in the latest session of the Environmental Audit Committee’s Heatwaves inquiry, the Met Office’s Dr Peter Stott confirmed that there is no “universally agreed definition of a heatwave”.

    The present definition used by the World Meteorological Organisation requires the average daily temperature to exceed the normal maximum temperature by five degrees celcius, for more than five consecutive days. It calculates the normal temperature using the period between 1961-1990.

    But this isn’t much help when it comes to establishing how heat feels to the people experiencing it: sun-hardened Texans in air-conditioned homes may be less likely to notice a five degree rise in temperature than sweaty Brits smushed together on the London tube.

    So the Met Office is consulting on the creation of a clearer definition, specifically for the UK.
    According to press officer Grahame Madge, the new system aims “to help with the broader messaging and communication around spells of hot weather across the whole of the UK”. And Dr Stott told the committee that he hopes it will be ready in time for the summer.

    The creation of any such definition is complicated, however, by global climate change. “The impacts of warming become increasingly more significant as we go above two degrees [rise above pre-industrial levels],” Dr Stott told the committee.

    The Met Office is working with the EU-funded Helix project to “look at the impacts of different warming levels”, Stott added. Their models for continental European summers predict that large scale temperature anomalies will become a regular occurrence by the middle of the century.

    It is not yet known exactly how that trend will relate to the UK, but the country shares the continent’s “land signature” – which sees average temperatures over land rise faster than the global average…

    At present, the only UK-specific definition in use is limited to England, and targeted primarily at health professionals and emergency planners. Created in conjunction with Public Health England, it uses temperature thresholds that vary by region. In London, qualifying temperatures must be at least 30 degree celcius over two consecutive days, plus an overnight temperature of at least 15 degrees in between.

    The recent bout of hot weather did not meet the above criteria and so was deemed to be a “hotspell” not a “heatwave”. Temperatures in St James’s park reached 29.1 degrees celcius – just 0.3 degrees below the hottest ever April on record, Stott explained.

    Yet ultimately, whatever new definition is arrived at, it is the increasing variability of UK weather that is likely to cause the biggest challenge of all. As Professor Michael Davies of the UK’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) pointed out to the inquiry, the heat-related deaths can occur below the temperature set for heatwaves. This means that simple sunny spells, especially when they are unexpected like last week’s, can pose an even greater risk to public health: “Owing to the relative infrequency of heatwaves, its normal periods of warm weather in summer that contribute to the greatest burden of mortality.”

    With this in mind, the CCC has recommended that more needs to be done by the government to assess and reduce the risk of overheating in public buildings and homes. They are also concerned that there has been a drop in the overall percentage of green spaces in urban areas since 2001, which can help manage the heat-island effect. “We didn’t make a recommendation on that in our last report in 2017,” Kathryn Brown, Head of Adaption at the CCC, told the inquiry, “but it’s one we keep looking at.”

    ***According to Defra research, public awareness of increasing hot weather is low: only 10 per cent of people thought average temperatures increased over the last 20 years. When heatwaves hit, “everyone hits the beach” Stott said. But he warned the inquiry, “There’s no narrative about how to look after your old people and babies.”

    If the UK is to remain safe as the climate continues to change, then public awareness will need to rise even faster than the heat.
    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/energy/2018/04/met-office-planning-new-heatwave-definition-climate-change-era

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Its typical leftist rubbish – redefine words to suit their agenda.

      For this case ( tongue in cheek here ) say they define a heatwave as hot enough to need aircon, therefore every summers day is a heatwave therefore climate change is real…..

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    • #
      Annie

      My new terms: A ‘Coldwave’ for the sort of winter that’s still not fully departed and a ‘Hotsnap’ for a day or two of nice warm weather. :)

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  • #
    pat

    no other reporting on the Heatwave inquiry, so best to go here:

    UK Parliament: Heatwaves: Adapting to Climate Change inquiry
    Inquiry status: open
    Accepting written submissions
    LINK Send a written submission

    Latest evidence
    24 Apr 2018 – Heatwaves: Adapting to Climate Change – oral evidence | PDF version (LINK)
    Evidence given by Kathryn Brown, Head of Adaptation, Committee on Climate Change, Professor Michael Davies, Member of Adaptation Sub-Committee, Committee on Climate Change, and Dr Peter Stott, Science fellow in Attribution, The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services…ETC
    https://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/environmental-audit-committee/inquiries/parliament-2017/heatwaves-17-19/

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  • #
    pat

    too bad it was only a “hotspell” – it was still a “heatwave” to the MSM, albeit a “mini” one, once you get past the headline!

    28 Apr: UK Telegraph: UK weather: Snow set for Britain this weekend in return to winter days after heatwave
    By Danny Boyle
    Parts of Britain are set to see snow this weekend in a return to wintry conditions just days after a mini heatwave.
    The Met Office warned of snow for the South East and possible flooding from Sunday evening.
    After last week brought the hottest April day for 70 years, forecasters said …blah blah

    Daytime temperatures in rural parts of the South East on Monday are expected to struggle to reach 5C (41F). The average temperature for late April is around 14C (57F).
    The Met Office warned that it will be cold enough to produce snow on high ground such as the North and South Downs…

    (FINAL PARA REPEAT) Last Friday, temperatures peaked at 29.1C in London on the hottest April day for 70 years ahead of the hottest ever London Marathon on Sunday.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/04/27/uk-weather-snow-set-britain-weekend-return-winter-days-heatwave/

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  • #

    It seems to ne that duh comes to mind …
    Although in full disclosure, as an avid skier, I prefer temps below 0C.

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    I recall summer days in SW London at 30C and was sweating…mind you, London is humid….

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  • #
    yarpos

    Meanwhile in Chicago , far more people get shot and wonded in warm weather than cold.

    https://heyjackass.com/

    800 dead and 2500 wounded each year in business as usual for a city the size of Melbourne. If you can stomach it , watch it ramp up through August>October.

    Quite amazing, while the MSM looks away and wrings its hands and mass shootings and “assault weapons” and people hashtag and putz around about gun reforms.

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  • #
    robert rosicka

    So Greenpeace is unhappy about power generation on the water near the coast because a tsunami or cyclone might wreck it ! No not floating bird choppers they are ok but a nuclear power station that floats ?

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  • #
    pat

    28 Apr: AAP: Aust team chosen for IPCC climate report
    by Gemma Najem
    Australian scientists will play a lead role in the next major international report into climate change, setting the standard for policymakers around the world.
    The United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has chosen 41 Australian scientists to join hundreds of experts from 90 countries to prepare the next international climate assessment, which will inform nations on how to avoid dangerous global warming.

    The IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report is set to be the “most reviewed document in the history of human kind”, says Australian National University academic Professor Mark Howden.
    The UN’s Nobel-winning organisation will spend the next three years reviewing current research and presenting it to governments who will “negotiate over every word and every line” before it is published in 2022, he said.
    “The challenge is maintaining the integrity of the science, reporting what the science says. But also resolving those sensitivities of different governments,” Prof Howden told AAP.

    Prof Howden, who heads Australian National University’s Climate Change Institute, said Australia’s role in the IPCC was unusually large for the country’s size, with similar numbers of authors to the United States, Germany and China.

    Around the world, people are starting to look at climate risk management a lot more, he says.
    “Climate affects almost everything we do. From day-to-day decisions like: do we take an umbrella? To big strategic questions like: how do we conduct agriculture in Australia?”…

    Scientists have been divided into three working groups for the report, the first focusing on the climate science, the second on its impacts and the world’s vulnerability, with the third to discuss mitigation.

    Prof Howden, who has been appointed vice-chair of working group two, says the report will be geared towards policymakers.
    The essential message of the IPCC’s report around the impacts of climate change won’t differ too much from the previous report, but the weighting of different issues will change, he said.
    “For example, solar radiation management. Can we put dust into the atmosphere to reduce the amount of sunlight hitting the earth?”…
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/aust-team-chosen-ipcc-climate-report-173033677–spt.html

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    • #
      pat

      12 Apr: ANU: ANU takes lead role in next global climate assessment
      The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has appointed three ANU climate experts – Professor Frank Jotzo, Professor Xuemei Bai and Dr Kathryn Bowen – as lead authors for the Sixth Assessment Report, which will be published in 2022…

      Professor Mark Howden, ANU Climate Change Institute Director, said the appointment of the three ANU academics and 37 other Australian scientists was a testament to Australia’s research strength in climate change.
      “It is particularly pleasing to see improved gender balance, with women now being 40 per cent of the Australians in the author teams – a significant increase compared with the previous IPCC report,” said Professor Howden, who is the Vice Chair of the IPCC Working Group 2 representing Australia and many other countries in the region.
      “Countries around the world are increasingly experiencing the effects of extreme weather, and the IPCC’s work is vital to address this and many other problems linked to human-caused climate change.”

      Last year, more than 1,000 people died and 45 million people lost homes, livelihoods and services when unprecedented severe floods hit Southeast Asia.
      By 2030, millions of people and trillions of dollars of infrastructure globally will be at risk from flooding, drought, wildfires and other natural disasters.

      The IPCC has invited 721 experts from 90 countries to participate in the Sixth Assessment Report as coordinating lead authors, lead authors and review editors.
      Professor Frank Jotzo from the ANU Crawford School of Public Policy is the lead author for Chapter 13 on National and sub-national policies and institutions in the Working Group 3 Assessment of mitigation.

      Professor Xuemei Bai from the ANU Fenner School of Environment and Society is the lead author for Chapter 8 on Urban systems and other settlements in the Working Group 3 Assessment of mitigation.

      Dr Kathryn Bowen from the ANU Research School of Population Health is the lead author for Chapter 7 on Health, wellbeing and the changing structure of communities in the Working Group 2 Assessment of impacts and adaptation.
      http://www.anu.edu.au/news/all-news/anu-takes-lead-role-in-next-global-climate-assessment

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        We’re doomed if that lot are representing the church of CAGW .

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      • #
        pat

        10 Apr: Uni of Tasmania IMAS: Role of local scientists in global climate change report a testament to quality and collaboration
        IMAS researchers are among five Tasmanian-based scientists selected to participate in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)…

        The Tasmanian-based scientists chosen to contribute to AR6 are:
        •Professor Philip Boyd, IMAS: Working Group II, Lead Author Chapter 3 – Oceans;
        •Professor Gretta Pecl, IMAS & Centre for Marine Socioecology: Working Group II, Lead Author Chapter 11 – Australasia;
        •Dr Andrew Constable, Australian Antarctic Division & ACE CRC: Working Group II, Lead Author Chapter 17 – Decision-making options for managing risk;
        •Dr Rebecca Harris, ACE CRC & University of Tasmania: Working group II, Lead Author Chapter 2 – Terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems and their services;
        •Dr Catia Domingues, IMAS & ACE CRC: Working Group I, Lead Author Chapter 2 – Changing state of the climate system.

        In addition, IMAS Professor Nathan Bindoff and AAD and ACE CRC researcher Dr Jess Melbourne-Thomas were last year selected by the IPCC to be part of the author team for its Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate.

        IMAS interim Executive Director Professor Chris Carter said: “Research of this quality has been made possible by the strong collaboration between the University, CSIRO, and the Australian Antarctic Division, and the joint research they support through the Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE CRC) and the Australian Research Council Antarctic Gateway Partnership.

        “Today’s IPCC announcement is further evidence of the outstanding achievements of our local research partnerships in marine and Antarctic science.”
        http://www.imas.utas.edu.au/news/news-items/role-of-local-scientists-in-global-climate-change-report-a-testament-to-quality-and-collaboration

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          pat

          12 Apr: UNSW: UNSW Canberra climate scientist to contribute to next IPCC report
          ***Dr Sophie Lewis is one of 721 climate scientists from 90 countries who will produce the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
          The announcement comes as the nation’s capital swelters through a record-breaking extended summer.

          Dr Lewis was selected alongside 36 other Australian scientists, including three of her UNSW Sydney colleagues, and she will contribute to a chapter entitled Weather and climate extreme events in a changing climate.
          “My current work is looking at the causes of recent extremes and methods that are really quite new in the scientific community,” Dr Lewis said.
          “It’s only been in the last 10 years that we’ve been able to scientifically investigate what is causing extremes. Often, in Australia particularly, we have a heatwave, or a bushfire, and people come out and say ‘well we can never link climate change to extremes’ – that’s just not the case anymore, that’s really old information.”

          Dr Lewis says climate change is not only contributing to 40-degree-plus days or extreme climate events, but uncharacteristically warm weather, such as Canberra’s extended summer.
          “These record hot days and months over the last few years are really being exacerbated because of climate change,” Dr Lewis said.
          “In Canberra it’s been slightly milder than NSW, Victoria and South Australia, but we’ve had a record run of days above 28 degrees and days above 29 degrees.”

          According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the mean temperature for the first 12 days of April was 28.8 degrees. The long-term April average is just 20 degrees.
          The highest April temperature in 2017 was 24.5 degrees.
          “Most Canberrans would be used to getting some warm clothes out by now and trying to hold off turning on the heater, but instead people are out in shorts and t-shirts,” Dr Lewis said.
          “While it can seem really lovely to have an extended summer, it really does have some consequences for agriculture and for our native plants and animals.”…

          ***LINK: Click here for more information on the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report and the full list of authors
          https://www.unsw.adfa.edu.au/unsw-canberra-climate-scientist-contribute-next-ipcc-report

          some more names from the IPCC link above:

          Group I:
          Joelle Gergis, School of Earth Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, Univeristy of Melbourne

          Simon Marsland, CSIRO Climate Science Centre

          David J. Karoly, Earth Systems and Climate Change in the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, based in CSIRO

          Group II:
          Chapter 11: Australasia
          (10 Aussies including)
          Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, University of Queensland

          Jo on Dr. Sophie Lewis last year:

          20 March 2017: Joannenova: All Australians “are detrimental”. Climate Scientist (***Sophie Lewis) worries that her baby will cause floods, droughts, and warm globe
          http://joannenova.com.au/2017/03/all-australians-are-detrimental-climate-scientist-worries-that-her-baby-will-cause-floods-droughts-and-warm-globe/

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    RAH

    Here in my neck of the woods in N Central Indiana.
    Cloudy
    Temp. 46 F (7.77 C) (Forecast high 52 F or 11.11 C)
    North wind gusting to 20 mph.
    Forecast low is for a hard frost tonight 29 F (-1.66 C)
    According to the Purdue University data base average temps for my area this time of year are:
    High 61 F (16.11 C)
    Low 42 F (5.55 C)

    According to this http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/04/26/delingpole-earth-in-greatest-two-year-cooling-event-in-a-century-shock/
    “From February 2016 to February 2018 (the latest month available) global average temperatures dropped 0.56°C. You have to go back to 1982-84 for the next biggest two-year drop, 0.47°C—also during the global warming era. All the data in this essay come from GISTEMP Team, 2018: GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (dataset accessed 2018-04-11 at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/). This is the standard source used in most journalistic reporting of global average temperatures.”

    And no, I’m not happy about any of it!

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    JMR

    This study bodes ill for people wanting to colonize Mars. The place is colder than Antarctica and its sunniest days are about the brightness of dusk here on Earth. Plus every 7-10 years there’s a planet-wide dust storm that blocks out the sun for 30 days or so. How will Elon Musk fix all that?

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