JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Midweek Unthreaded

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Rating: 6.8/10 (24 votes cast)
Midweek Unthreaded, 6.8 out of 10 based on 24 ratings

117 comments to Midweek Unthreaded

  • #
    el gordo

    It has been calculated that the Holocene Interglacial should have come to an end by the time of Christ.

    What went wrong?

    80

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Was that calculation done by the IPCC?

      110

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Apart from the 10,000 Italian tourists trapped in snow, Grey Seal hunters catastrophic losses due to too much ice, The north pole at minus 31.3C……..other cold weather and so on…… what went wrong with the latest piece by Jo “Bourke: How 1km of land clearing can warm a million square miles”?

      110

      • #
        toorightmate

        No, no, no.
        MSM and Fairfax are reporting a heatwave at the North Pole.

        20

      • #
        Sceptical Sam

        And, it’ll snow in Brighton (UK) today (Tuesday) apparently.

        David Viner, eat your heart out.

        https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/09/05/following-up-on-david-viners-expert-forecast/

        30

        • #
          Ceetee

          How do I explain the circular reasoning and confirmation bias to my youngest daughter who has just become a uni student. She won’t know it or recognise it. She will be confused because she’s not a sheep. She’s heard me bleat about it often enough. Many of those charged with the duty of educating her hide behind the the real academic history of years of academic probity on which their institutions base their reputations. They hide behind politics which neatly disguise the abrogation of their solemn purpose. The rest keep their heads below the sandbags. I don’t actually give a rats what the UN says or does, it was never more than a pantomime anyway but when it comes to the education of our children I get damn angry. If you want to judge a politician just look at their attitude to the education of YOUR children.

          71

          • #
            Ceetee

            I fear this post is misplaced. Apologies.

            00

          • #

            How do I explain the circular reasoning and confirmation bias to my youngest daughter who has just become a uni student. She won’t know it or recognise it. She will be confused because she’s not a sheep. She’s heard me bleat about it often enough.

            Your ofsprouts are not you!; they are they! Best a father can do is disparage educational frivolous brainwashing yet offer incessant bleating of slow learning\understanding, with your example thereof!
            Learning to ride bicycle is not easy! Father needs to demonstrate can do! So I can do too, prevails! Momma needs to hug, and provide ‘OH sweet baby’ on the way! With sufficient hugs; the Uni brainwashing will simply roll off your duckling daughter’s back! The eventual cry ‘I want my mommy’, will take many, many more hugs! :-)

            01

    • #

      Don’t be impatient, EG. There were a hundred+ thousand years of ice age after the last little interglacial, and that Eeemian was over before you knew it. And this interglacial will be over before we know it.

      Difference is, last time around humans didn’t know they were just getting lucky in the middle of a long, long ice age. This time around, thanks to geology, glaciology, speliology etc, we get to know the facts…even though we have to ignore the facts on shamanistic grounds.

      Shamans! Still running around in capes and silly hats demanding offerings!

      130

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        Astute observers have noted that ‘people are not wearing enough hats’
        There is a real pressing need for people to wear more hats.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2QJvc_SxFQ

        30

      • #
        D. J. Hawkins

        So now when the glaciers begin their inexorable march, we’ll be fully aware of our fate. Sometimes, ignorance can be bliss.

        20

      • #
        el gordo

        There was climate change in western Cameroon in 2,500 BP, with rainforest disruption noted in Lake Ossa cores.

        This cold spell should have been the beginning of the end due to orbital mechanics, but the shamans believe the Bantu iron age people living in the area were to blame. Smelting iron is a dirty business, requiring deforestation.

        50

        • #
          tom0mason

          The Bantu iron age people caused the planet’s orbital slippage because they moved THE significant iron deposits. This removal altered the mass and magnetic distribution of the planet, an alteration that moved the planet over the orbital ‘tipping point’, and it has not truly settled since.

          :-)

          10

      • #
        Geoff Sherrington

        Not enough hats?
        Do try this solution
        http://www.geoffstuff.com/hats.jpg

        10

    • #
      Allen Ford

      It was worse than they thought, at the time

      30

    • #

      Perhaps it did. There is some evidence that we have been cooling for 2000 years with occasional warming bumps. Actual glaciation is a very slow process that will take several thousand years more.
      There are some who think the Younger Dryas may have thrown a wrench into the cycle, somehow.

      20

      • #
        el gordo

        The Younger Dryas may have extended the Holocene by putting a damper on rising temperatures and if it was an asteroid breakup then it poses deep philosophical questions.

        The world has been gradually cooling since the climate optimum, but further down the track when cold/droughty conditions should have been taking hold, everything was normal.

        Between 350-300 BC there was a global warming blip and it only lasted 20 years, reminds me of our Modern Climate Optimum.

        http://www.longrangeweather.com/350bc.htm

        00

    • #
      Clint

      The margin of error.

      10

    • #

      It has been calculated that the Holocene Interglacial should have come to an end by the time of Christ. What went wrong?

      You keep trying to do that (dodat) in terms of stupid linear elapsed time! A fantasy of ignorant dying slugs\congress-criters!
      Try instead the cycles per interval of all that ist observable! Ever-ting ist going round and round; semi-cyclic, (3D helicity) even life itself! Tween da midweek an da weakened unraveling I gets confused! Tighten up a bit folk, please!
      All the best!-will-

      21

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘I gets confused!’

        Its sort of a long weekend.

        Cycles are fun, the Gleissberg is a certainty and I’ll need convincing the gas giants have no part to play in climate change.

        10

      • #
        el gordo

        ‘In short, both theory and observation indicate that it is not impossible for the planets to influence the Sun and, via the Sun, the Earth/Moon system. However, merely because it is not impossible, it ain’t necessarily so.’

        Monckton of Brenchley

        10

      • #
        Ceetee

        You do worry me sometimes Will. No doubt you are a thinker. Please stop being so crass and arrogant though. We are fighting against people who rely on groupthink, like mobsters who descend on waverers like a ton of bricks. Think about every decent human being who ever said ‘hang on a sec..??.’ Don’t be like me Will. I first came here in a torrent of self righteous indignation rightfully based on what I truly believed but insulted some people because this to me this was an issue but also a bit of sport. That’s not good because it makes us look every bit as arrogant as they are. It’s a real issue. My children will unwittingly devote massive amounts of their income to a fake political scam, as will many others. This is money\effort that will dissolve into nothing, disappear forever and that is the real crime. The tragedy of modern economics is that communists don’t understand it. Never did never will, even if their attempts to understand it stuffs us all…

        30

        • #
          el gordo

          ‘The tragedy of modern economics is that communists don’t understand it.’

          Socialism with Chinese characteristics disproves that theory.

          10

          • #
            Ceetee

            Endgame el gordo, we ain’t there yet. The Chinese rely on a more sophisticated version of old style authoritarianism than previous but not being a racist, I believe the Chinese Mr and Mrs Average will chafe under the yoke just as much as you or I would, especially when given a mere sniff of western freedom of choice, even if its just washing machines or items on a menu.

            30

        • #

          You do worry me sometimes Will. No doubt you are a thinker. Please stop being so crass and arrogant though. We are fighting against people who rely on groupthink, like mobsters who descend on waverers like a ton of bricks.

          Ceetee, Thank you for your interest. I will make an effort to be more forgiving, especially to our gracuious hostess, and the hardworking mods. On the El gordo issue; he asked ‘what went wrong’? Nothing went wrong except the superficiality of the climate\weather analysis; especially that by the arrogant yet ignorant self appointed academics. {rant}The groupthink folk are but the feedstock for the “elite bankster” Soylent Green Machine. Remember that politicians are the most vile members of the groupthink. These vile politicians accept ‘re-election’ funds from the banksters; whose INTEREST, only rip-off every hard working citizen!{/rant.}
          Anyhow El gordo attempts to only use linear distance\time concepts. The conjugates (negative inverse) of such concepts often are more important, for understanding, especially in the complex (imaginary) electromagnetic!!
          All the best!-will-

          01

          • #

            For those unsure of the term “complex conjugate”, hamilton’s quaternions (William R. Hamilton 1843), as used by J.C. Maxwell, best become as familiar as ‘picking your nose’, ‘scratching your watch’, or ‘winding your ass’!
            For a 3th grade student, a better introduction is Octonion matrix algebra! They so much want to learn! :-)

            01

            • #

              Octonion matrix algebra! sounds complex but is simple but rigorous. Easy for any computer program and much easier to learn by the young than any alphabet or symbol sequence (Chinese). This algebra is taught (drilled) into all 8 year olds in Russia, China, as it is so very mathematically efficient! Hamilton’s quaternions,the first noncommutative algebra, used only a 4 x 4 matrix, barely sufficient to describe all known modern 4 space (including time)!
              Octonion algebra! uses a 8 x 8 matrix 64 places to put values, mostly (-1, 0, 1) to include an additional 4 pseudo dimensions to rapidly calculate the effects of such concepts as “dark energy” or “dark mass”!
              All the best!-will-

              00

          • #

            OT for midweek unraveled: Other blog CTH:

            Exactly why we can only have so much patience. Elections are in 7 months, early voting before that. Must have charges filed in no more than 5 months!

            And your plan after 5 months? Public Suspicion is much more viable for elections! Charges are but judicial nonsense for vast profit by every swamp attorney. Peter Strzok, Lisa Page voluntary gave written testimony of worry-some Crinton Cartel, attitudes at both FBI and DOJ! Can they be charged with any criminal wrong-doing? Not on your life! Think!! Why Oh why did P45 announce candidacy for 2020 election so soon?

            01

    • #
      tom0mason

      +/- what? mS? 0.5 days? :-)

      00

  • #
    PeterS

    Single women get married to trees in ceremony to save them
    We are still behind the times despite the recent change in the marriage act to allow same-sex couples to marry. Both our major parties need to rush another change to catch up. What could be so more important than “modernising” the marriage act? Think of the extra benefit for the Greens. They can marry trees to save them.

    40

    • #
      yarpos

      Should be encouraged, after a couple of generations no Greens (at least not the indoctrinated from birth kind)

      20

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Not exactly the weirdest or bizarre thing from the greens I’ve seen and I believe they have a mantra of as long as it’s a consenting arrangement alls good .

        10

    • #
      Griffo

      Do the trees pay alimony?

      10

      • #
        Ceetee

        No but trees are absolute sexist bastards who sit around and drink beer all day and disrespect their interspecies partners in the most vile and diabolical way.

        00

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Just posted this on weekend unthread .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-27/fracking-ban-in-nt-should-stay-say-leading-climate-scientists/9486380

    And what happened to the Bourke story or is it only me it’s disappeared on .

    50

    • #
      glen Michel

      More one sided drivel from the ABC newsroom. Hack journalism from the national broadcaster where the universe is viewed from Ultimo and carefully vetted for “sensitive” types.

      70

    • #
      sophocles

      You’re not alone. The Bourke post has done a bunk.
      Maybe it was a BOM lawyer … ?

      Australian Blogger threatened by government department running amok!

      BOM does a bomb …

      or hatchets at 20 paces :-)

      21

    • #
      Hanrahan

      If you mean this:

      Bourke: How 1km of land clearing can warm a million square miles

      I’ve still got it.

      10

  • #
    glen Michel

    Whatever happened to the Bourke thread?

    60

    • #
      Environment Skeptic

      Yeah!!

      60

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      It has been homogenised by the BoM.

      61

    • #
      ivan

      A takedown letter from a very worried BoM solicitor perhaps. After all it didn’t do their public image any good.

      71

    • #
      PeterS

      I suspect too much political correctness has infected this site.

      21

      • #

        Peter, we have to remember that it is Jo who takes the risks and cops the legal flak, all on our behalf.

        51

        • #
          PeterS

          I understand that very well. Bolt is a good example of this. It means though the longer this keeps up the more likely we will lose the war against the extreme left, or alternatively the extreme right will rise up and create just as much mayhem and havoc. It’s rapidly becoming a lose-lose situation.

          20

          • #
            robert rosicka

            Remembering that they have an unlimited resource for litigation and have used it as a weapon for silence and consensus I do fear for the few that dare to speak up .

            11

    • #
      sophocles

      You all will have a copy of it in your web browsers cache directory. It will be kept in there for a few days (maybe 9).
      See if you can find it and copy it to somewhere safe as a backup. You maybe able to look back through your browsers history or you may have to use different means to locate it, but it will be in there.

      Mind you, the disappearance could be for some good and proper reason … we’ll no doubt find out in due course.

      20

      • #
        sophocles

        Um, sorry about that. It seems that the days of our web browsers caching everything are no more. I’ve found bits ‘n pieces of stuff but no complete pages. Bother.

        10

    • #
      Hanrahan

      As I posted in 3.3

      If you mean this:

      Bourke: How 1km of land clearing can warm a million square miles

      I’ve still got it. Does a Mac do things differently?

      00

  • #
    DaveR

    More drivel from SMH committed alarmist Peter Hannam, this time about a warm air spike in the Arctic that is …..well…er.. not that uncommon. Typical SMH and their fellow travellers, rush the story out without any background to get it published before less biased researchers can place the event in historical context. And the answer is – its a regular occurrence. Meanwhile Europe freezes.

    81

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Either Jo’s computer has been hacked or threats from BOM have been made !

    31

    • #
      joseph

      . . . . . mmmmm . . . . . . wish I’d done a save on the page last night . . . . .

      40

      • #
        Environment Skeptic

        The page is still cached by google.

        30

        • #
          Environment Skeptic

          There must be a reason why it was taken down almost as fast as it was posted….so best to wait until further notice. Maybe Jo thought to improve the page or correct something, or something else. In any case, i am sure there will be some very good explanation.

          31

  • #
    pat

    i’m not listening, but some may wish to!

    AUDIO: 27 Feb: ABC Breakfast: Power station license review looks to tighten cap on emissions
    Some residents living near Australia’s remaining Brown Coal Power Stations believe dangerous levels of emissions are causing sickness and even premature death — while environmentalists allege Australia has lax standards compared to the US, Europe and even China.
    But now they say there’s a unique opportunity to catch up, with two states reviewing licenses with a view to tightening the cap on emissions that emanate from their remaining coal-fired power stations.

    One is a landmark review of Victoria’s Latrobe Valley power station licenses, and the other involves an existing New South Wales pollution scheme.
    However, advocates for the power stations warn sudden changes could push operators offshore.
    Guests:
    Wendy Farmer, Advocate and resident
    Nicola River, Lawyer
    Dr Ranajit Sahu, US air quality expert, mechanical engineer
    Mary Aldred, CEO, Comittee of Gipsland
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/2018-02-27/9487716

    Twitter: Wendy Farmer, Community advocate Voices of the Valley. No longer can we sit around & wait for someone else to take responsibility
    TWEET: 2h ago: EnviroJusticeAus‏ @EJ_Aus · 2h2 hours ago
    This @RNBreakfast radio story about @EPA_Victoria’s review of the #LatrobeValley power station licenses features @WendyFarmer_ (Voices of the Valley), EJA’s @Nic_Rivers, US air quality expert Dr Ranajit Sahu and Mary Aldred from Committee for #Gippsland.

    (Wendy re-tweets Jay Weatherill, plus other “left” politics)
    https://twitter.com/wendyfarmer_?lang=en

    guest Dr. Ranajit Sahu has provided expert opinion and comments on behalf of Sierra Club and Earthjustice, according to google results.

    30

    • #
      PeterS

      Apparently another nail in the coffin of coal power here in Australian despite the fact hundreds of new coal fired plants are being built and hundreds more planned all over the rest of the world. I haven’t as yet seen a proven reason why Australia is committing economic suicide. Of course there are numerous possible explanations, some more likley that others.

      70

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Didn’t the town grow up around the coal fired power station ? I think we have to lose the battle to win the war so to speak but economically it will be suicide I agree .
      Unfortunately it’s the only way to get the leftards the tar and feathers they deserve and the undecided sheeple the evidence they needed that this CAGW scaremongering was nothing more than a frord on a monumental scale .

      20

      • #
        PeterS

        Strange though how the rest of the world is acting (as distinct from talking) as though CACGW is long gone proven to be a hoax yet we in Australia are hell bent on going the opposite way with coal fired power stations. It just doesn’t make any sense. If the rest of the world was doing the same thing as we are then I could understand the world has gone mad collectively. Yet that’s not what’s happening. The reality is the rest of the world is too busy building more and more coal fired power stations (and some nuclear to boot as well as more renewables) instead of getting rid of them like we are. It just doesn’t add up.

        50

    • #
      Graeme#4

      There was a recent article in The Oz on the Latrobe Valley pollution paper, generated by a local activist doctor. Seems it wasn’t actually based on any results from the Latrobe Valley, just an extrapolation of a questionable pollution study from the U.S. The Oz article included comments by Aust. medicos who challenged the paper’s comments, pointing out that many other local valley factors were involved that would have had a greater impact than pollution.

      30

      • #
        PeterS

        Well if pollution is such a big issue the alarmists are in the wrong country. They need to go all over the rest of the world to try and stop hundreds of new coal fired power stations from being built. I wish them luck. Of course they won’t do it because Australians are an easy soft target, and don’t appear to mind paying top dollar for energy. Perhaps we are too rich by world standards so we shouldn’t mind paying higher prices. If that’s so we don’t need lower taxes either – push them higher instead. Making sense yet or are Australians that brain dead?

        20

    • #
      Serp

      I say let’s bag the emissions.

      00

  • #
    pat

    27 Feb: Reuters: Freeze engulfs Europe, rare Rome snow disrupts flights
    by Philip Pullella; Additional reporting by Crispian Balmer, Robert-Jan Bartunek, Richard Lough, Thomas Escritt, Angel Krasimirov, Michael Holden
    A Siberian weather system British forecasters dubbed the “beast from the east” brought snow, strong winds and the coldest temperatures for years to many regions.
    The freeze was expected to continue for much of the week, and the World Meteorological Organization said daily minimum temperatures below 0 C were expected even in southern Europe.
    “This cold period … could be a risk to life for vulnerable people exposed to the cold,” it said.

    Piazza Venezia, Rome’s central square which is usually a cacophony of car horns and a tangle of traffic, was eerily empty, quiet and white as dawn broke.
    In St. Peter’s Square, priests and seminarians from the Vatican threw snowballs at each other. Near the Colosseum, students skied down the Oppian Hill.
    It was the heaviest snowfall in Rome in six years and the largest for the end of February in decades. The city, which is not equipped to deal with snow emergencies due to their rarity, asked other areas to send in snow ploughs to help clear roads.

    Schools were ordered shut and many people could not reach their work. Police asked residents to stay at home if possible.
    Rome’s Fiumicino airport was forced to operate with only one runway during the night, when 10 cm (4 inches) of snow fell in less than four hours. The capital’s second airport, Ciampino, was closed overnight and workers were clearing its two runways…
    The chill engulfed much of the country, with the harshest temperatures recorded in the Alps in the Valle d‘Aosta, where a low of -34.9 C was recorded early on Monday.

    In Brussels, authorities said homeless people sleeping in parts of the city would be detained overnight if they refused shelter, to protect them from sub-zero temperatures this week.
    Temperatures in Brussels are set to fall to as low as -10 degrees Celsius (14 F) in the coming week, with strong winds adding a further chill factor…

    …even in the ordinarily more temperate coastal climes, temperatures were well below zero on Monday, according to the German Weather Service.
    Heavy snow left thousands in western Bulgaria without power, disrupting transport and shutting down schools, prompting the Balkan country’s authorities to warn people to refrain from travelling.

    Dozens of villages were left without electricity. Roads were blocked while flights in and out of Sofia Airport were cancelled. Schools in several municipalities were closed and strong winds closed the Black Sea port of Burgas.

    Some trains were cancelled or delayed due to the weather in Britain, where authorities said the country faced the coldest period for a number of years, with forecasts of snow and temperatures falling to minus 8 Celsius (46.4 F).
    Transport is expected to be badly hit when more severe weather strikes on Tuesday and Wednesday.
    Frank Saunders, Met Office Chief Operational Meteorologist, said daytime temperatures would struggle to rise above freezing this week…

    The cold snap triggered a jump in power prices in France, a country still largely reliant on electric heating, though price moves in Germany were less pronounced.
    French power grid operator RTE said there was no risk to French electricity supply. Nonetheless, state utility EDF said it was delaying planned maintenance outages at two nuclear reactors by a week.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-italy-snow/freeze-engulfs-europe-rare-rome-snow-disrupts-flights-idUSKCN1GA0X4

    26 Feb: PBS Newshour: Rome blanketed by snow as Arctic storm sets European records
    Elsewhere in Europe, the storm set dangerously low temperatures: Lithuanian officials said temperatures that plunged to as low as minus 24 degrees Celsius (minus 11 Fahrenheit) in some places were to blame for the deaths of at least three people over the weekend. Hospitals in Lithuania and Latvia have reported an uptick in people being treated for hypothermia and frostbite…

    Doctors in Britain warned that the already-stretched National Health Service may have trouble coping with extra patients affected by what meteorologists are forecasting will be days of cold and high winds…
    https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/rome-blanketed-by-snow-as-arctic-storm-sets-european-records

    40

  • #
    pat

    26 Feb: TheLocalSweden: Traffic chaos as icy blast hits Sweden
    Here’s The Local’s live blog of the “beast from the east”.
    17:30 Freezing temperatures
    But it’s not just the snow you need to be wary of, you also need to be prepared for some very icy temperatures. Overnight to Monday, the village of Gielas in northwestern Sweden recorded minus 42 degrees Celsius for example…

    13:45 Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven unhurt in car crash
    The prime minister was able to continue his journey to Uppsala Akademiska Hospital where he was due to give a speech about healthcare, after his car went off the road at Knivsta on the E4 autoroute…
    https://www.thelocal.se/20180226/live-flights-cancelled-as-icy-blast-hits-sweden

    more at link:

    25 Feb: AP: Rare snowfall blankets Rome, closing schools
    By NICOLE WINFIELD; Associated Press writer Nataliya Vasilyeva in Moscow, Jovana Gec, in Belgrade, Serbia, and Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin, contributed to this report
    Croatia, meanwhile, has been gripped by freezing weather, with even towns along most of the Adriatic coast waking up to temperatures below freezing. The spell of winter weather has closed schools in the northwest, and heavy vehicles were banned from all roads leading toward the coast.
    About 1,000 Croatian soldiers have joined efforts to clear the snow in the worst-affected areas where more than 1.5 meters (about five feet) of snow have been reported…
    Snow and freezing temperatures have a grasp on some parts of Germany as meteorologists reported a record cold for this winter of -27 C (-16.6 Fahrenheit) on the Zugspitze mountain in the Alps.

    The German Weather Service said Monday that the overnight temperatures were also low in the south and east of the country, where they went down to -15 C (5 F) in parts. It was slightly warmer in the northeast, but traffic there came to a halt in some regions because of heavy snowfall…
    https://apnews.com/738d732649de4894b19a478c434941a1

    10

  • #
    pat

    26 Feb: WUWT: Anthony Watts: Warm spike in Arctic drives alarmists into alarm mode – but there’s no reason for alarm
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/26/warm-spike-in-arctic-drives-alarmists-into-alarm-mode-but-theres-no-reason-for-alarm/

    Batten down the tulips, a ‘sudden stratospheric warming’ may bring snow
    Irish Times· Feb 21, 2018

    here comes CAGW gate-keeper extraordinaire Doyle:

    27 Feb: Reuters: ‘Wacky’ weather makes Arctic warmer than parts of Europe
    by Alister Doyle; editing by William Maclean
    A freak warming around the North Pole is sending a blast of Arctic cold over Europe in a sign of “wacky” weather that may happen more often with man-made global warming, scientists said on Monday.
    On the northern tip of Greenland, the Cape Morris Jesup meteorological site has had a record-smashing 61 hours of temperatures above freezing so far in 2018, linked to a rare retreat of sea ice in the Arctic winter darkness.
    “It’s never been this extreme,” said Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). Warmth was coming into the Arctic both up from the Atlantic and through the Bering Strait, driving and cold air south.
    Around the entire Arctic region, temperatures are now about 20C (36°F) above normal, at minus eight degrees Celsius (17.6°F), according to DMI calculations.

    To the south, a rare snow storm hit Rome on Monday and some Brussels mayors planned to detain homeless overnight if they refused shelter with temperatures set to fall as low as minus 10 Celsius (14 Fahrenheit) in the coming week.
    Hit by easterly winds from Siberia, cities from Warsaw to Oslo were colder than minus 8C.

    ***As long ago as 1973, a study suggested that an ice-free Arctic Ocean could make regions further south colder. That “warm Arctic, cold continent” (WAC#C) pattern is sometimes dubbed “wacc-y” or “wacky” among climate scientists.
    “Wacky weather continues with scary strength and persistence,” tweeted Professor Lars Kaleschke, a professor at the University of Hamburg.
    “The question is whether this weather will happen more often. This is just one event so it’s hard to make a causal relationship,” he told Reuters.

    Scientists say a long-term shrinking of sea ice on the Arctic Ocean, linked to global warming, exposes warmer water below that releases more heat into the atmosphere. That in turn may be disrupting the high altitude jet stream.
    “The jet stream becomes wavier, meaning that colder air can penetrate further south and warmer air further north,” said Nalan Koc, research director of the Norwegian Polar Institute…

    Erik Solheim, head of the U.N. Environment, said the rare weather fits a wider pattern driven by a build-up of greenhouse gases, mainly from burning fossil fuels from cars, factories and power plants.
    “What we once considered to be anomalies are becoming the new normal. Our climate is changing right in front of our eyes, and we’ve only got a short amount of time to stop this from getting significantly worse,” he told Reuters.

    Under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, almost 200 nations agreed to limit a rise in temperatures to “well below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.5 Fahrenheit) above preindustrial times, while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5C (2.7F)…
    “The risk of an ice-free Arctic in summer is about 50 percent or higher” with warming of between 1.5 and 2.0 degrees, according to a leaked draft of a scientific report by a United Nations panel of scientists, obtained by Reuters.

    The World Meteorological Organization said the chill in Europe was caused by a “Sudden Stratospheric Warming” above the North Pole that led to a split in the polar vortex, a cold area of air above the Arctic that spilled cold south.
    A big problem in figuring out whether the Arctic warmth is driven by human activities or natural variations is a lack of measuring stations. There are no thermometers at the North Pole and satellite measurements go back only to the late 1970s.

    On the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard, temperatures were just above freezing, with rain, and about 13.4C (24F) above the long-term average on Sunday.
    “There have also been recent winters with similar deviations,” said Rasmus Benestad, senior scientist at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

    U.S. President Donald Trump, who plans to quit the Paris Agreement, has often expressed doubts about mainstream global warming science during cold spells, such as at New Year in the eastern United States

    And Mottram at DMI said Europe’s winters had become less severe. “It’s not actually that cold. It’s just our perceptions have shifted from a normal winter.”
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-weather/wacky-weather-makes-arctic-warmer-than-parts-of-europe-idUSKCN1GA2AD

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      el gordo

      Tipping Point Ambivalence

      ‘A big problem in figuring out whether the Arctic warmth is driven by human activities or natural variations is a lack of measuring stations.’

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        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        I also found that comment interesting eg. Am surprised they admit the need for data at all. But I also was disappointed, but not surprised, that they omitted any reference to the role of the Gulf Stream in any any ice melt.
        The SMH article had a marvellous colour map of the arctic, showing red over a large area and without adequate explanation. I think it may have been showing a temperature anomaly, given as 20 dgrees inthe text, rather than using the actual minus 8 I read here.
        Sounds to me that the water, and not the air, is melting the ice.
        Cheers,
        Dave B

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        Tipping Point Ambivalence

        Cannot citizens force (at gunpoint) the self appointed academic ivory tower yet scientifically ignorant; to finally admit they have no clue as to Earth’s weather? Why not? Anyone\everyone that has actually tried to discover such, walks away shaking head side to side, admitting BEATS the SH*T out of me! :-)

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          el gordo

          Its possible to work out how the system works, the oscillations and other mechanisms involved, to extend weather forecasting a year in advance.

          Do you know of a crypto currency that deals exclusively with the ramifications of climate change?

          I might consider becoming a day trader.

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            ts possible to work out how the system works, the oscillations and other mechanisms involved, to extend weather forecasting a year in advance.

            Please provide some clue to your proposed method? AFAICT the helical progression of this solar system through the Universe precludes such forecasting.
            To make matters worse God’s damnable engineering ‘angels’ at JPL\CalTech keep tweaking on what has been learned; to make it better!
            All the best!-will-

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    el gordo

    ‘China’s future high-speed trains might be self-driving, have a top speed around 600 kilometers per hour and an adjustable interior and entertainment system with high-speed internet, a senior engineer said on Monday.

    ‘Most of these new features will be completed within the next decade, said Ding Rongjun, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. He also is one of the key scientists behind Fuxing – the first bullet train fully developed in China.’

    China Daily

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    pat

    AUDIO: 21 Feb: Royal Meteorological Society: Podcast Episode 6: The Beast from the East
    The sixth episode in our podcast series discusses ‘The Beast From The East’, a sudden and potentially prolonged cold snap that’s due to hit the UK in the next few days. What is this kind of weather event called, what causes it and what kind of weather conditions can we expect?

    (LINK) Read an article about Sudden Stratospheric Warming on theWeather Club website …
    https://www.rmets.org/podcast-episode-6-beast-east

    2013 and 1981 are brought up in podcast above:

    19 Feb: TheWeatherClub: Sudden Stratospheric Warming event
    The last cold and snowy spell caused by a sudden stratospheric warming event was in March 2013. It lasted for about 15 days and bough the coldest weather since 1883. December 1981 was another time that sudden stratospheric warming bought a cold-weather event, with that December the coldest of the 20th Century…

    So by Friday morning, temperatures will be several degrees cooler than average…

    VIDEO: 2mins33secs: Watch this Met Office video by Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Seasonal to Decadal Forecasting at the Met Office and member of the RMetS Climate Science Communication Group: What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warming and how does it work? posted by Met Office, February 2017.
    http://theweatherclub.org.uk/node/457

    22 Feb: TWEET: MetOfficeUK: Everyone’s talking about the #BeastFromTheEast. This short silent film explains what it is (VIDEO)
    https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/966726802998571009?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwirralweather.com%2F2018%2F02%2F23%2Fwhat-is-the-beast-from-the-east-and-how-will-it-affect-merseyside%2F

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    pat

    what isn’t mentioned in the Met Office podcast – the failed predictions/hype of Dec 2012:

    sadly, Paul Hudson does not have an active blog these days, but it’s great fun to read the COMMENTS at the following threads:

    5 Dec 2012: BBC Paul Hudson blog: The Beast from the East is lurking
    There is now growing consensus between most weather computer models that cold air from the east is likely to spread across Britain next week…
    The diagram below is what’s known as an ‘ensemble mean’ from the ECMWF model for the middle of next week…

    The computer program is run 51 times, each time with slightly different starting conditions.
    The solutions are then compared, and give forecasters an indication as to how likely a particular outcome is.
    From the midnight run of the computer, 41 out of 51 of the solutions suggest an easterly weather pattern developing next week, with varying degrees of cold.
    10 solutions do not agree with this cold easterly outcome, hence there is still some uncertainty. But, there’s clearly a large majority in favour of this scenario at the moment.
    What is much less certain is how much snow is likely to be associated with this change in the weather…

    And of course there’s always the risk of milder air trying to re-assert itself from from the west, which would also bring the risk of snow.
    At the moment though, the cold but relatively dry scenario is the most likely outcome…
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/12/the-beast-from-the-east-is-lur.shtml

    13 Dec 2012: BBC Paul Hudson: The Beast from the East is slain
    The cold easterly which a large majority of computer models were predicting to develop this week has failed to materialise, with a much more unsettled weather pattern expected to return from the Atlantic during tomorrow.
    Last week, 80% of the ECMWF model solutions wanted an easterly ‘blocking’ weather pattern, with the average of those solutions shown below…
    Crucially the centre of gravity of the large area of high pressure, which should have been closer to Scandinavia, is further northeast than predicted.
    This positional error means that Atlantic weather systems will now be able to make further progress eastwards across the UK.

    It illustrates very well just how difficult it is sometimes to forecast general weather conditions a week ahead, even when there’s high model confidence…
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2012/12/the-beast-from-the-east-is-sla.shtml

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    Don A

    I watched the ABC ch24 news today and was totally dismayed by this news piece about the plan to resume fracking in the NT. Steffan Karoly Ogg – etc OMG what a biased group they managed to collect together. Is there any sanity left in the MSM? Balance???? NBW

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    pat

    27 Feb: UK Express: UK braces for ‘coldest spell in 27 YEARS’ as snow CRIPPLES country – MAJOR warnings issued
    FORECASTERS warned of the coldest blast in 27 years yesterday as Storm Emma moved across the Atlantic towards the UK.
    Temperatures will plunge to -15C (5F) in parts over the coming nights with widespread lows of between -4C and -10C.
    Nationwide snowfall is forecast from today with many regions likely to be under a foot of the white stuff by Friday.
    Wintry downpours will be driven by a storm poised to tear in from the South-west on Thursday, whipping up blizzards and causing deep snowdrifts.

    The powerful low-pressure system was yesterday named Emma by the Portuguese Meteorological Service.
    Met Office forecaster Alex Burkill: “The Portuguese Meteorological Service has named Storm Emma, so the Met Office will adopt that name instead of issuing one from the UK series.”…

    Sub-zero temperatures caused the sea shallows to freeze at the Somerset holiday resort of Weston-super-Mare.
    BBC weather presenter Ian Fergusson said the fringes of the sea iced over, adding: “It’s been quite a number of years since we last saw this sort of phenomenon on Bristol Channel coasts.”…
    Government forecasters have issued a raft of severe weather alerts amid warnings of the coldest winter snap since 1991.

    Temperatures on Thursday could be among the lowest ever recorded with the mercury unlikely to lift above -5C in parts. This would bring the lowest daytime maximum temperature in archives going back to 1910, beating the -4.6C set in March 2001.
    Mr Burkill added: “Temperatures in parts of the country may not rise above -4.6C on Thursday or they could stay even lower. If this happens we could beat that particular record.
    “We expect to see temperatures this week dropping to between -10C and -15C overnight in the coldest regions and widely below freezing.”
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/924439/uk-snow-weather-forecast-met-office-warning-uk-travel-disruption-rush-hour

    PICS: 26 Feb: UK Express: Greece’s sun-kissed beaches covered in foot of snow as FREAK WEATHER hits Europe
    THE famously sun-kissed beaches of islands in Greece’s Attica region are under a foot of snow today as the ‘Beast from the East’ sweeps across southern Europe.
    By Tom Gillespie
    Freezing overnight temperatures, particularly in northern and central Greece, have caused serious traffic problems and have led to the closure of dozens of schools.
    The region of Attica, located on the eastern edge of Greece, is home to the capital Athens, but also includes the islands of Salamis, Aegina, Angistri, Poros, Hydra, Spetses, Kythira and Antikythera.
    The region is unusually blanketed in white as the ‘Beast from the East’ brings snow and travel disruption across Europe, with Britain bracing for heavy snow showers later this week…

    The frigid air from Siberia is to be joined by snowfall across the Balkans into tonight with more wintery weather set to grip the region over the next few days…
    Macedonia, western and northern Bulgaria and southern Romania are expected to face the brunt of the freezing weather…
    Snow is expected to reach 1ft high in those regions…
    The snow will also increase the risk of avalanches in mountainous regions of southern Europe.
    The Siberian blasts causing havoc in the UK are also forecasted to cause chaos in Bosnia Herzegovina, Bucharest, Romania and Serbia…
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/924276/greece-news-snow-greek-islands-snowfall-attica-beast-from-the-east-siberia-uk-snow

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    pat

    Youtube: 7mins41secs: Devin Nunes blasts Democrats’ rebuttal memo (SEAN HANNITY 26 Feb 2018)
    Chairman of the House Intelligence Committee weighs in on ‘Hannity.’
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POTHDtAW-8c

    Youtube: 7mins08secs: Exclusive: Carter Page reacts to the Democrats’ memo (SEAN HANNITY 26 Feb 2018)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=625bTZFC0CM

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    Clint

    It illustrates very well just how difficult it is sometimes to forecast general weather conditions a week ahead, even when there’s high model confidence…

    Sometimes??? You’re kidding right??? High model confidence???

    No one predicted ‘the pause’ and the departure of prediction from empiricism is more than well established. It’s a kick in the proverbial nuts.
    This is pure pantomime, or should one say fantamime?

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    robert rosicka

    Just watched last weeks episode of Shaun Mcallife’s Mad as Hell and he has actually done a skit rubbishing the big battery and windfarms .

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    Murray Shaw

    Hold the presses! The ABC 4Corners is going to lift the lid on the CAGW scam next Monday. Gotta look forward to that. Get your factcheck warmed up (pardon the pun)

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    robert rosicka

    So electricity Bill really doesn’t want the Adani mine to go ahead then , given the crap this company have been getting from Labor/green politicians and protesters I would be surprised if they go ahead with the mine .

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    pat

    just noticed the ABC’s AP/Reuters piece has a line from AP’s Nicole Whitfield that wasn’t in her original article, which I posted on the Bourke thread last nite:

    27 Feb: ABC: AP/Reuters: ‘Beast from the East’ sweeps across Europe as Arctic warming brings freak weather
    ***Similar sudden drops have occurred over North America in recent years and climate researchers say they could become more common as global warming further saps strength from the air currents around the pole…

    26 Feb: BradentonHerald: Rome blanketed by snow as Arctic storm sets seasonal records
    By NICOLE WINFIELD. Associated Press
    ***Similar sudden drops in temperature have occurred over North America in recent years and climate researchers say they could become more frequent as global warming further saps strength from the air currents around the pole…

    this was an add-on. MSM is such a joke.

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    pat

    look at the amount of time given to Cousins! a disgraceful interview. Cousins with a smirk on his face right through. Sales seems to be smirking too. at least listen to the last couple of minutes with Sales pretending to play devil’s advocate:

    VIDEO: 9mins25secs: 27 Feb: ABC: 7.30 Report: Adani mine licence could be revoked under Labor government, Geoff Cousins says Bill Shorten told him
    by Leigh Sales
    Businessman and environmentalist Geoff Cousins says Opposition Leader Bill Shorten told him that when Labor wins government they could revoke the Adani mine licence.
    Mr Cousins, former president of the Australian Conservation Foundation, told 7.30 that Mr Shorten made the statement to him privately last month.
    “The key statement was that, ‘When we are in government, if the evidence is as compelling as we presently believe it to be regarding the approval of the Adani mine, we will revoke the licence, as allowed in the act. That’s a clear policy’,” Mr Cousins said.
    “He told me he intended to speak to his colleagues.”
    He said the conversation took place when Mr Shorten asked him for advice about the environmental impact of the Adani mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin.

    Mr Cousins said he spent two days in north Queensland with Mr Shorten — at the Labor leader’s request — to discuss the matter.
    “He said he wanted to learn as much as he could first hand about the mine and the impacts on the reef and climate change issues and so on,” Mr Cousins said.
    “He said the reason he wanted to get that first-hand knowledge was because he was planning a firmer policy position on Adani.”
    According to Mr Cousins, at the end of the two days Mr Shorten told him he would discuss the policy with his colleagues.
    Mr Cousins said he was speaking out publicly to “increase the pressure” on Labor to make a decision.
    “It’s pretty clear there is some kind of resistance in his party to him leading on this issue,” he said.

    Mr Shorten ‘deeply ***sceptical’ of mine
    A spokesperson for Mr Shorten confirmed the Opposition Leader requested a meeting with the Australian Conservation Foundation and Mr Cousins for their views on the Adani mine.
    “Bill really appreciated the time and effort they gave informing him of all the environmental issues,” the spokesperson told 7.30.
    “The visit renewed Bill’s convictions on the importance of protecting the reef and the environment.
    “It’s no secret that Bill is deeply sceptical of the proposed Adani coal mine. He believes if it cannot stack up environmentally or commercially, it should not go ahead. So far it hasn’t, and he doesn’t believe it will.”
    But they said: “Labor does not rip up contracts and we don’t create sovereign risk.”

    The Adani mine has been a major headache for Mr Shorten and the Labor Party.
    In rural Queensland the party faces a very real electoral threat from One Nation and wants to be seen as offering jobs and economic growth.
    But at the same time it is trying to appeal to voters in the inner-Melbourne electorate of Batman, which could fall to the Greens in a by-election in just over a fortnight.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-27/geoff-cousins-accuses-bill-shorten-of-reneging-on-adani-deal/9490238?section=environment

    theirABC has already had him as “sceptical”.

    original headline:

    ‘Doesn’t appear to be great economics’: Shorten ***sceptical on Adani’s Carmichael mine
    By political correspondent Louise Yaxley and Chris O’Brien
    Posted 2 Feb 2018

    changed to:

    2 Feb: ABC: Adani mine has Bill Shorten ***sceptical as he signals concern for jobs elsewhere
    By political correspondent Louise Yaxley and Chris O’Brien

    27 Feb: RenewEconomy: ACF Press Release: ACF welcomes its first female president, Mara Bún
    By Australian Conservation Foundation
    The Australian Conservation Foundation (ACF) is pleased to announce businesswoman, activist and executive, Mara Bún, as its new president.
    Queensland-based Ms Bún will replace outgoing president, Geoff Cousins. She’s had an impressive career that has included positions with CSIRO, Macquarie Bank, Canstar, Allen Consulting Group, Morgan Stanley, Choice, Bush Heritage, and most recently Green Cross Australia…

    “This is a critical time for Australia. As the cost of renewables declines exponentially, we must take this opportunity to replace our aging, polluting energy infrastructure with clean alternatives. We need to secure climate and energy policies that encourage investment in Australia’s clean energy transition.
    “Climate change is an unparalleled threat to our way of life and the wildlife we share this continent with. We will only halt these threats and restore our natural world if we empower everyday Australians to take action to protect our clean air, clean water and liveable planet.
    “The ACF community is incredibly powerful. I look forward to helping them work with business, investors, government and other sections of the Australian community to address the environmental challenges we all face.”…

    “I also want to thank Geoff Cousins for his enormous contribution to ACF and to Australia. ACF has gone from strength-to-strength during his time as president and his leadership on the Stop Adani campaign in particular has been an inspiration.
    “I know that Geoff will continue to campaign strongly to protect the beautiful Australian landscape that he adores.”…
    http://reneweconomy.com.au/acf-welcomes-first-female-president-mara-bun-73655/

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    Environment Skeptic

    It was with great interest that i tried to read about the incredible minus 40C temperature recorded in Italy where my parents come from around Vicenza. I can read Italian somewhat but missed the bit where the minus 40 degree Celsius was recorded by a thermometer that could not go lower than 40C.

    My grandfather would raconteur his time in the Asiago Alti Piani (High planes) where he would go with his horse and some polenta and Parmesan cheese to collect wood in the snow, a region near the very low temperatures recently recorded.

    Came to my attention via Ice age now.

    From: https://www.iceagenow.info/dont-know-cold-thermometer-went-minus-40/#more-24795

    ““Russian cold blast finally hit Italy,” says Dr Mirco Poletto in Italy. “Here are some low temps from the northeast. Note that in Campoluzzo (near Vicenza) was recorded a low of -40°C only because sensor could not go lower!”

    Reminds me of something similar happening in Australia recently where it was software that would not allow a lower temperature reading.

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    Dennis

    To better understand the history of politics since 2009 (and much more earlier history at this website) the following link contains information that explains much about the state of our nation today.

    How the once conservative centre/centre right was hijacked and now a majority have veered centre left if not further left.

    It quotes Christopher Monckton’s warnings about prime ministers in Australia and in Canada and much more.

    http://stopturnbull.com/relentless-undermining-2009-2015/

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    Ian George

    Steve Goddard has an interesting article which points out that during the 70s scientists were claiming that a cold Arctic was the cause of the cooling over Northern America and Europe.
    Now of course it has been turned on its head.
    https://realclimatescience.com/2018/02/science-cold-is-the-new-hot/

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      Sceptical Sam

      From the link:

      My favorite Australian climate [snip] (Peter Hannam) says -10C at the North Pole is actually 0C, and it is really hot.

      Another one who must have failed his year 8 Physics.

      Just like Philip Pullella, Crispian Balmer, Robert-Jan Bartunek, Richard Lough, Thomas Escritt, Angel Krasimirov and Michael Holden at No 8.0 above.

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    robert rosicka

    The ABC got a wrist slapping last night in senate estimates for passing of an opinion piece as fact journalism.

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    Ceetee

    …..for passing of an opinion piece as fact journalism.

    Welcome to the desperadoes of the modern left wing churnalist zeitgeist. I’m starting to look for the horns on Trumps head based on the temper tantrums of the vast majority of media coverage. Journalists have lost their purpose, meaning and importantly their integrity.

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    There appears to be randomness afoot in Nova land. First the Bourke thread disappears and returns, now we have two midweek unthreadeds runnings. Pay attention out there, anything may happen!

    Someone is futzing with! SUSE42.3 has a completely different midweek with Gee Aye than Ubuntu 14.3 with El gordo! :-(

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