JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Midweek Unthreaded

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Midweek Unthreaded, 8.8 out of 10 based on 15 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/ycjcdhqk

237 comments to Midweek Unthreaded

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    But it’s not mid week. Oh! I see, it’s sped up because of global warming.

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    No one should assume from my statement in the immediately preceding thread saying that I’m skeptical about a lot of theoretical physics, that I would be above mentioning some of it in the novel I’m writing. ;-)

    I really do like the mystery of it all, even when I can’t commit to believing it. And it makes my story look more believable to acknowledge stuff I don’t even begin to understand. A little mention here, the Higgs Field and another one there, relativity theory and presto, instant credibility. And yet I can postulate a world in which classical and theoretical physics are both stood on their heads and turned inside out for the sake of a good story.

    Science does fascinate me, especially in a well crafted story where the author takes real well understood physics and extends it into an imaginary world reselbling Alice in Wonderland.

    Happy Mid Week to everyone.

    90

    • #
      PeterS

      Indeed. The main definition of science is “the intellectual and practical activity encompassing the systematic study of the structure and behaviour of the physical and natural world through observation and experiment.” So that makes talk about climate change thousands/millions of years ago not science but not much better than mythology, and a hundred or so years into the future not science but not much better than science fiction.

      51

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        I like the idea that gravity is some how related to magnetism….no idea how to prove it though….

        30

        • #
          PeterS

          I prefer Einstein’s theory that gravity is the result of space-time being curved by mass and energy. At least his General Theory of Relativity field equations provide a good explanation of real-life observations.

          10

          • #
            Kneel

            “I prefer Einstein’s theory that gravity is the result of space-time being curved by mass and energy. ”

            Together with energy and mass being different aspects of the same phenomena, it’s hard to conclude anything other than that mass & energy don’t distort spacetime, they ARE distortions of spacetime. Energy being a ripple, matter being a tear. Spacetime can only “repair” “tears” at the speed of light, so when you approach it, the repair “trails” the “tear” by larger and larger amounts, hence increasing mass. “Tears” appear based on different “fields” so a tear in EM creates electrons/positrons etc. Neutrinos are energy/matter using another field type, which is why we can only interact with them rarely except for gravity (bent spacetime). And so on. Don’t have any math to back it up, but at a glance, it looks like it explains a lot of things such as why high energy photons decay into electron/positron pairs.
            And no new physics, just a different way of looking at things.

            21

        • #
          PeterS

          I think what you are describing is gravitoelectromagnetism, something that has been proposed to explain the relationship between gravity and electromagnetism.

          10

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Gravity sucks, and does so all the time. Magnetism only sucks for half of the time.

          20

          • #
            OriginalSteve

            Could be worse…used EV batteries suck….

            Watch as old Li batteries catch fire in a tip and we wind up with a local version of Gehenna

            http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-07/what-could-happen-to-electric-vehicle-batteries/9398100

            “Less than five per cent of lithium-ion batteries sold in Australia are currently recovered and recycled. The rest end up in landfill.

            That’s prompting the question — what will happen when the volume of battery waste grows as more electric vehicles (EVs) start driving on our roads?

            Most existing battery waste comes from small electronic devices like phones, laptops and power tools, so it is not yet a major problem.

            But according to a report prepared for the Federal Department of Environment by Randall Environmental Consulting, the scale of waste is predicted to soar.”

            00

    • #
      James Bradley

      Hi Roy,

      It’s called Speculative Fiction, your universe – your rules, and as long as you maintain continuity for the rules you set for your universe you can’t go wrong.

      50

      • #
        Another Ian

        Don’t the rules there change for convenience?

        20

        • #
          MudCrab

          Only in academia, Another Ian, in fiction changing the rules of your universe is bad world building and can throw a reader out of the story. Convincing the readers that you are NOT making it up as you go along helps them invest in the story.

          Also, while we are talking about the written word, what is the difference between Speculative Fiction and Award Winning Literature?

          People actually read Speculative Fiction.

          120

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        James,

        Definitely my rules. But then there have to be characters and a plot worthy of those rules. And that’s the hard part.

        Most of the interest in good fiction for me is the interaction of the characters with each other, their world and the plot. Get a couple of interesting back stories going and keep them going. Add some suspense and keep the challenges coming. Keep up the emotional intensity that all that would would really have and you’ve got a good story. The plot and the imaginary world in which it happens is just a stage upon which the author showcases his characters.

        I’ve turned a first draft over to my wife to read and so far she’s kept going. So far, so good.

        30

        • #
          James Poulos

          Roy,

          I’ve sold a few of my own spec/fic stories over the years to various publishers and found writer’s workshops are invaluable. There’s a beaut in the USA called the Online Writers Workshop. One month free membership and well worth a look.

          10

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            I’ve been meeting with a local writers group and the advice I’ve gotten is invaluable. This coming Saturday I hope to get my first chapter read and critiqued.

            I don’t know whether to be hopeful or worried. But either way I’ll learn something.

            20

            • #
              Another Ian

              To use a quote from Spike Milligan

              If they move in the general “direction of away” you’ve got a problem

              00

            • #
              MudCrab

              A good writer’s group can be a great help. An average group on the other hand…

              Feedback is a bit like climate science – there is actually no consensus. You, as the writer, need to learn how to tell the difference between ‘you have a problem with your structure’ feedback (which is good) and ‘you should write the story THIS way’ (which unfortunately often be that person projecting their personal views onto you).

              Good feedback is stuff like pointing out flaws in your worldbuilding, continuity errors, inconsistent character motivation and which sections of the story do not seem to relate to the rest of the story and are frankly slightly dull.

              The stuff you want to be careful about is when the feedback starts to completely change the direction of your story. You might for example have a story narrated by a pub regular who describes the wacky adventures of a friend failing to romance another of the regular drinkers. Your vision. Your story plan.

              Then you get feedback telling you that you need to explain where the McGuffin object comes from, have the narrator get more directly involved and throw in a plot twist about how the romantic lead really is… Yeah… ummm… tell you what, why don’t YOU write that story and I will stick to MY idea?

              On the other hand, and this might sound counter intuitive, but you need to find readers who don’t actually like you, or at least are not your fans. You will get to a stage where you have your 100K word draft and give it out to your readers. The problem is if they are also your friends AND have been liking the story they will come back and tell you that they loved it. Which, while good for the ego, doesn’t help you spot the continuity errors or world building flaws.

              Also also, make sure your writing group writes the same form as you. Short form fiction has different rules to long form. Some people might tell you that you need to write short stories to learn your skills before you are allowed to write a novel. Bollocks. The structure is completely different. So make sure your writing group is into the same sort of thing.

              Apart from that, write like a writey thing and have fun. If you are not having fun then you are doing it wrong.

              20

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                I was advised by one of the group members to write first of all for myself. Write what I like because that will be something I can be passionate about. Whether that sells the story to anyone else is problematical but… as I said, my wife, who doesn’t read science fiction at all is reading the first draft and she hasn’t stopped or done much scribbling on the manuscript.

                I hope that’s a good sign.

                I had several starts on this story and had my head handed to me on a platter along with a list of my sins by the several people who looked at it. So I’m learning to be a story teller instead of writing like an engineer. Saturday I can get the same first chapter read and critiqued as before and I hope the result is much more to my liking.

                This being and author is quite an adventure.

                00

    • #

      Happy Mid Week to everyone.

      And back to you! Perhaps a bit of ‘learning’ of how little one can ‘know’ before dying, and how easy to fool thy self. I wonder why that is. :-(

      11

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Roy Hogue:
    “takes real well understood physics and extends it into an imaginary world resembling Alice in Wonderland” – I assume you aren’t commenting on Australia’s plans for renewables in the electricity scheme. Imaginary Yes, but a bit bizarre even for Lewis Carrol.

    60

  • #
    Roy Hogue

    No Graeme, I wouldn’t do that to anyone. The relationship between energy and what it can accomplish is alive and well, even in the “Alice in Wonderland” world of my imagination.

    On the other hand, I have no qualms about doing magic tings with energy that no one ever dreamed of but they do take energy. ;-)

    30

  • #
    • #
      Leo Morgan

      I’m having considerable difficulty following the article you linked to.
      Could you please clarify:
      1) What are lifewaves?
      2) What are ‘evolutions’ when used as a noun that does not mean manoevers?
      3) What is an individualised God-flame?
      4) What are the vehicles of consciousness?
      5) How does the adjective ‘psychotronic’: ‘denoting or relating to a genre of films that typically have a science fiction, horror, or fantasy theme and were made on a low budget’ fit in the sentence in which it’s used?.

      I am unclear about much else there too, but that’s enough to go on with.

      30

  • #
    Another Ian

    Some explaining required

    “In March 2016 Carter Page Was an FBI Employee – In October 2016 FBI Told FISA Court He’s a Spy…”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/02/05/in-march-2016-carter-page-was-an-fbi-employee-in-october-2016-fbi-told-fisa-court-hes-a-spy/

    40

    • #
      Ross

      The book publishers must be rubbing their hands with glee, Ian. When the whole mess comes out there will books galore written about it.

      Independent film makers might in the same camp. Cannot see Hollywood being interested —second thoughts, of course there will be money in it, principles (what are they?) can take a back seat.

      50

      • #
        toorightmate

        Yep,
        Robert De Niro will play the part of Donald Trump.
        Bill Clinton will play the part of Weinstein.
        Kate Blanchett will play the part of Pocahontas.
        Al Capone will play the part of Hillary Clinton.

        60

    • #
      yarpos

      Is 7 months enough for Spy School? I think so. How hard can it be?

      40

  • #
    pat

    5 Feb: WUWT: NYT’s Maggie Astor @MaggieAstor misdirects the Arrow of Cause
    Guest Essay by Kip Hansen
    In today’s New York Times, Maggie Astor, writing on behalf of the Climate Section’s editorial narrative, manages the incredible cognitive gymnastics trick of turning a story 180 degrees around, totally misdirecting the arrow of cause-and-effect…

    The story is “No Children Because of Climate Change? Some People Are Considering It”. Our intrepid NY Times journalist gets her examples from a radical anti-fossil-fuel group called Conceivable Future, “an organization that highlights how climate change is limiting reproductive choices.” Their rant is that Climate Change will be so bad that they (some people) are reluctant to bring new children into the world and they demand Reproductive Justice. You get the idea…

    Maggie is careful to give the facts:
    “…children born today will have as shorelines flood, wildfires rage and extreme weather becomes more common. Others [potential parents] are acutely aware that having a child is one of the costliest actions they can take environmentally.”…READ ON
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/05/nyts-maggie-astor-maggieastor-misdirects-the-arrow-of-cause/

    popular topic!

    4 Feb: ABC Philosophers Zone: The philosophy of parenting—part 1
    When professional philosopher and ethicist Matt Beard was to be become a parent he sought advice from the people he knew best: the sages. The result was bleak. Matt was used to consulting wisdom built up over two millennia for guidance. No such luck with parenting—unless you’d like to take Plato’s advice to abolish the private family; or to follow Arthur Schopenhauer’s firm belief that it’s an act of sheer cruelty to bring children into the world…

    In this ***four-part series Matt, as a first-time dad and public philosopher, goes on his own search of prudent advice…
    Guests:
    Laurie Paul, Profile at UNC Chapel Hill
    ***Travis N. Rieder, Research Scholar, Berman Institute of Bioethics, Johns Hopkins University
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/philosopherszone/parenting-1:-la-paul-+-travis-rieder/9371008

    Rieder should be a familiar figure:

    20 Aug, 2016: JoanneNova: We should protect our kids from climate change by not having them
    National Public Radio (USA): ‘Should We Be Having Kids In The Age Of Climate Change?’…
    Daily Caller Andrew Follett reports on a set of stories about population control “for the climate”:
    ‘We should protect our kids from climate change by not having them’ says ***Travis Rieder of NPR…

    Nov 2017: NBC: ***Travis Rieder: Science proves kids are bad for Earth. Morality suggests we stop having them
    We need to stop pretending kids don’t have environmental and ethical consequences.
    The scientific and moral case against having kids and reducing our carbon footprint before the planet is destroyed by global warming…

    20

    • #
      pat

      John Hopkins: BioethicsInstitute: ***Travis N. Rieder
      Travis’ work tends to fall into one of two, quite distinct research programs. The first concerns ethics and policy questions about sustainability and planetary limits. Much of this research has been on issues in climate change ethics and procreative ethics with a particular focus on the intersection of the two – that is, on the question of responsible procreation in the era of climate change…
      ***The second, and much newer, research program concerns ethical and policy issues surrounding America’s ***opioid epidemic…
      http://www.bioethicsinstitute.org/people/travis-n-rieder

      following isn’t Rieder, but it would appear this is becoming a fad!

      24 Jan: ScienceDaily: Weather patterns, farm income, other factors, may be influencing ***opioid crisis
      Source:Penn State
      Summary:The overprescribing of opioid-based painkillers may be the main driver of the increased abuse of opioids in rural America, but economists say that other factors, including declining farm income, extreme weather and other natural disasters, may affect a crisis that is killing thousands of citizens and costing the country billions of dollars

      In a study of relationships between socioeconomic variables and opioid-related drug overdoses, researchers found several correlations that are often not discussed in the current conversation about the nation’s deaths of despair, which includes opioid overdoses, said Stephan Goetz, professor of agricultural and regional economics, Penn State and director of the Northeast Regional Center for Rural Development.
      For example, a higher number of natural disasters experienced historically in a county is correlated with an increase in opioid overdoses, according to the researchers…

      If climatologists’ warnings are correct, a changing climate could produce more extreme weather patterns, which could then have an effect on opioid overdoses and deaths, said Goetz, who worked with Meri Davlasheridze, assistant professor in marine sciences, Texas A&M at Galveston.
      Income also matters, according to the researchers. For each $10,000 reduction in net income per farm, opioid overdoses rose by 10 percent from a national average of 10.2 deaths per 100,000 people to 11.2 deaths per 100,000 people…

      Estimates indicate that opioid-related drug overdoses cost the country $432 billion in 2015, according to the researchers, who presented their findings at a recent meeting of the Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) annual meeting in Philadelphia…

      ***The United States Department of Agriculture and the National Institute of Food and Agriculture supported this work.
      Story source: Materials provided by Penn State. Original written by Matt Swayne
      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/01/180124123113.htm

      20

      • #
        Extreme Hiatus

        “researchers found several correlations”

        Cherry picking correlations again, as usual. Wonder why they focused this study on farmers instead of town or urban people? What junk.

        00

        • #
          Another Ian

          Reminds me of the study on detrimental effects of diazanon years back.

          IIRC. Problem was the control group was interviewed and tested during daytime, the farming group at night – after the working day.

          20

        • #
          Mary E

          The US opioid “epidemic” is disproportionately hitting the rural areas. It isn’t like the old days, an inner-city “thing” – just as the cocaine problem was more suburban and middle-class (but crack was inner-city) the opioid problems are outside the areas you’d think would be affected.

          There is probably some correlation to the closing of pill mills with the uptick in illegal opioid use – and some correlation to the physical nature of farm work (and factory work), and the injuries sustained over time doing this work, and the need for effective pain management. All this gets lost in the “opiates/opioids are bad” rhetoric.

          30

    • #
      Ted O'Brien.

      If Maggie finds the world such a worrying place perhaps she’d like to leave now.

      10

  • #
    Another Ian

    Priceless!

    “Climate predictions come in two types, those that failed to materialise and those that are yet to fail to materialise. So much fun.”

    More at

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/05/quote-of-the-week-climate-predictions-edition/

    140

  • #
    Annie

    I’ve been watering and picking up bird-attacked but not quite ready damsons this morning. I’ve now washed and cooked them, the damsons, that is. The birds, I learned from Jack Absolom, need to be cooked in a pan with rocks…once the rocks soften the birds are ready to eat! Our biggest trouble makers with fruit are the sulphur-crested cockatoos which advertise their presence with hideous squarks so I spend my time acting like a horizontal yo-yo and yelling like a harridan! The sneakier birds keep quiet(ish) so get away with more.
    How do King Parrots remember to come back just when the damsons flower, set mini-fruits where any blossom is left and then return just before the few fruits are not quite as ripe as I’d like them to be? We see little of them otherwise.
    We had a great nectarine crop (too many…never believed that possible) and there are loads of apples. If the trees aren’t netted there is no fruit and if they are netted there is a big surplus. At least I can chop up the rattier apples and give them to the sheep.

    60

    • #
      Extreme Hiatus

      “How do King Parrots remember to come back just when the damsons flower, set mini-fruits where any blossom is left and then return just before the few fruits are not quite as ripe as I’d like them to be?”

      Parrots are among the most intelligent birds and birds in general are more intelligent than we tend to think. Remembering a local seasonal food source is pretty straightforward. Presumably those King Parrots are in their nesting habitat and/or where other foods are when they’re not visiting you.

      My favourite example of bird memory are these ones – Clark’s Nutcrackers – from southwestern Canada and the western U.S., which are Corvids related to crows and jays (another highly intelligent group):

      “High in the mountains of the West, gray-and-black Clark’s Nutcrackers swoop among wizened pine trees, flashing white in the tail and wing. They use their dagger-like bills to rip into pine cones and pull out large seeds, which they stash in a pouch under their tongue and then carry away to bury for the winter. Each birds buries tens of thousands of seeds each summer and remembers the locations of most of them. Seeds they don’t retrieve play a crucial role in growing new pine forests.”

      https://www.allaboutbirds.org/guide/Clarks_Nutcracker/lifehistory

      40

      • #
        Annie

        That’s quite poetic, EH :)

        Birds are amazing but it doesn’t mean that I always like their activities! The crows and magpies, black cockatoos (I like those…we always know they are around because we hear the cracking of the hakea nuts), willie wagtails, blue fairy wrens, sometimes robins, lots of crimson rosellas, lorikeets…all very entertaining when not being annoying! Our magpies in Australia are different from the northern hemisphere magpies but look and act in a remarkably similar way. We have kookaburras and pardelotes too and others whose names I don’t know…I reckon our place is a haven for avian life; insects and spiders too, and snakes at times :(

        30

        • #
          yarpos

          Friend of mine calls black cockatoos the B52 Cockatoo because of the nose shape and the slow gliding flight style :-)

          40

        • #
          Extreme Hiatus

          Wow, that sounds like a very birdy place! Nice variety. But birds have no respect for private property or our feelings so they can be a pain. I suppose that food lost to them could be considered a bird tax, by sometimes annoying tax collectors.

          20

          • #
            yarpos

            It is a very birdy area. If you just sit in one place and watch, especially if there is water nearby, there is an amazing diversity. I lived in Europe for a few years and while it was a great experience it was really obvious that there was a very limited range (comparatively speaking)of wildlife, and plantlife for that matter.

            There was an animal expo in the town near us, so we went as out daughter was/is animal mad. The was a large group oohing and ahhing in French around a large enclosure, she wanders over and call back to “its just some parrots, Dad!” she got some odd looks :-)

            20

            • #
              Annie

              We were in Gloucestershire for some years and had a good-sized garden. There were lots of different birds who were nearly as much wreckers of my fruit and veg as birds here, although nothing could be quite as bad as a sulphur-crested thug! We had vegs damaged by pigeons and pheasants (and squirrels just to add to the fun) and counted no fewer than 18 of the latter (the pheasants) in the garden on one occasion! We also had blackbirds, thrushes, wood pigeons and collared doves, green woodpeckers, and jays sometimes as well as smaller birds and there were rooks and crows too.
              I haven’t heard a nightingale in England for many years but heard them in the mountains in Cyprus in the last year or two. I’ve not heard cuckoos much in England for years either but we heard them in the French Alps, lots of them!
              Earlier today I was chasing away King Parrots…they are very pretty but do quite a lot of damage to the fruit. We do see hawks cruising overhead sometimes; the panic in the sulphur-crested mob is quite gratifying at those times ;) . We frequently get our friends the kookaburras visiting and a great racket from them probably indicates that they’ve caught a snake, or so we were told many years ago.

              00

      • #
        Another Ian

        We have a white cedar in the garden and the resident bower birds harvest the seeds.

        We had a lesson on remembered flight paths one winter when we trimmed the tree. For a while bower bird incoming was at a flight level appropriate for the untrimmed tree.

        20

    • #
      toorightmate

      Annie,
      My Mum often referred to me as a damn son.

      20

  • #
    Speedy

    The Good Sceptic.

    A man went to a hamburger shop. He purchased a cheeseburger, some fries and a drink, which he consumed as he walked home. But his meal did not satisfy, so he cast it onto the pavement.

    Presently, came a tree-hugger. She was in love with the wonders of nature, especially herself. She looked down on the scattered waste. “It is wonderful I am vegetarian,” she thought. And, indeed, she could see that she was very, very good. Praising Herself for her goodness, she passed by.

    Next, a Law-maker. His Laws caused rains to fall in due season and made famine illegal. Thus, with the stroke of a pen, he had purified the whole of the earth. But when he saw the filth below, he stepped aside. “A packaging tax”, he thought, “That’s what we need.”

    He was followed by a prophet, who preached tales of famine, floods and powerful winds. At this, the people did repent, and so the Prophet relieved them of their sins and their gold and their silver. He, too, saw the dunnage on the wayside, and looked around. But there were no news cameras in this lonely place, so he returned to his mansion.

    After this, an old woman arrived. She was a Sceptic. She saw the rubbish on the ground, and sighed. Then she stooped down, and picked it up, and placed it in a bin.

    Which of these is making the world a better place?

    150

  • #
    Another Ian

    “The New York Times Deceptive Editorial on President Trump’s Energy Policies”

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/02/05/the-new-york-times-deceptive-editorial-on-president-trumps-energy-policies/

    Sounds like the NYT got a copy of Canberra’s cue sheet

    30

  • #
    pat

    2 Feb: Edie.net: Matt Mace: Capacity Market Auction: ‘Bizarre’ Government policies blocking renewables funding
    But with gas and demand response accounting for the majority of the agreements – three-quarters of power secured in the auction was from gas projects – one of the last remaining coal-fired plants in the UK announced its closure.
    Eggborough is one of the eight remaining coal-fired power plants in the UK but announced its closure early today, after failing to secure an agreement in the latest auction, which effectively secures back-up power for later this year…

    With the UK Government committing to closing all remaining coal-fired plants by 2025, Eggborough’s closure is expected to be followed by others. However, the UK Government has been informed that a carbon price of £40 per tonne may be required to shut down all remaining coal plants by 2025…

    Even though the Capacity Market Auction has blocked support for coal, the Renewable Energy Association (REA) has accused the Government of propping up the fossil fuel industry.

    ***Less than 6% of this auction’s power reserve comes from renewables, while less than 2% is covered through energy storage. In contrast, coal secured an 8% share.
    The Government is yet to announce any funding for renewable projects under the Levy Control Framework beyond 2021, while requests from the REA on funding renewable heat projects in the Framework’s wake have been ignored…

    Currently, onshore wind, large-scale solar and biomass installations can’t be funded through Contracts for Difference auctions, while cuts to subsidies in the renewable energy sector have created a 56% decline in investment between 2017 and 2016…
    https://www.edie.net/news/11/Capacity-Market-Auction—Bizarre–Government-policies-blocking-renewables-funding/

    5 Feb: UniversityCollegeLondon: Green energy blueprint for cutting UK electricity prices
    A blueprint to cut UK electricity prices to bring them into line with competitor countries such as Germany and France as we move to low-carbon power generation has been proposed by UCL researchers.
    The report by UCL’s Professor Michael Grubb and Paul Drummond recommends the government increases investment in in low-cost renewable energy such as onshore wind, and co-ordinates investment in power generation and network infrastructure more efficiently.

    Produced for the Aldersgate Group, a sustainable energy alliance, it also recommends the UK ensures it leaves the EU in a way that supports increased interconnection with European power grids and cross-border electricity trading.
    The report found UK industry pays on average a third more for electricity than many counterparts in Europe who have reaped the benefits of better interconnections, more cross-border trading and long-term supply contracts.

    It makes six key recommendations including…READ ON

    LINKS TO ALDERSGATE ETC AT BOTTOM OF ARTICLE.
    http://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/news-articles/0218/ucl-green-energy-blueprint-for-cutting-uk-electricity-prices

    find the following on Aldersgate homepage:

    5 Feb: Aldersgate Group: Removing barriers to mature renewables key to lowering industrial electricity prices
    RIGHT COLUMN: DOWNLOAD REPORT

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  • #
    pat

    so much pain in the name of manmade global warming:

    MULTIPLE PICS:

    5 Feb: Internat’lBusinessTimes: David Sim: Snow of the Century: Moscow blanketed in white after heaviest snowfall since records began
    A whole month’s snow fell on Moscow over the weekend, with the depth of the snow reaching 62 centimetres (24.5 inches) in some parts.
    The “Snow of the Century” – a weekend-long snowstorm in Moscow – has delayed flights, cut power supplies and even prompted school authorities to call a snow day — a highly unusual occurrence in the Russian capital. The Meteorological Office said that more than an average month’s amount of snow fell on Moscow over the weekend, with the depth of the snow reaching 62 centimetres (24.5 inches) in some parts of the capital.
    Moscow is blanketed in white after being hit over the weekend by the heaviest snowfall since records began…

    In a city where school is rarely ever cancelled, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said parents are not expected to take children to school on Monday (5 February). More than 60,000 households in regions surrounding Moscow were left without electricity over the weekend…
    Heavy snow and freezing rain have knocked down thousands of trees in the Russian capital and one person is reported to have been killed…
    Days of heavy snow triggered a sharp increase in traffic accidents and severely impacted urban transportation…
    As of Sunday, local authorities had dispatched 15,000 snow removing vehicles and nearly 70,000 sanitation workers to clear the city’s 800,000 cubic metres of snow within 24 hours to avoid any more accidents…

    Russian meteorological authorities forecast the snowstorm will continue to affect Moscow over the next two days, with wind speeds reaching 20 metres per second and temperatures dipping below 10 degrees Celsius.
    http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/snow-century-moscow-blanketed-white-after-heaviest-snowfall-since-records-began-1658759

    6 Feb: TVNZ: NZ athletes to potentially deal with coldest-ever Winter Olympics
    The 2018 Games may be the coldest in history, the record currently belongs to the Norway Games in 1994 where it got down to minus 11 degrees.
    On Monday morning Pyeongchang reached negative 18 degrees…

    It presents a few challenges for the New Zealand advance team with the NZ chef de mission Peter Wardell saying one issue that needs to be addressed is that the stairwells need to be cleaned.
    “It all immediately turned to ice so they then had to remove the ice which caused a few ructions and it was difficult walking up and down the stairs,” said Wardell…
    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/sport/other/nz-athletes-potentially-deal-coldest-ever-winter-olympics

    5 Feb: ArkansasOnline: 2 degrees is coldest in history
    Compiled by Democrat-Gazette staff from wire reports
    MINNEAPOLIS — They billed Super Bowl LII as the “Bold North,” and it certainly lived up to those expectations. While the temperature outside U.S. Bank Stadium was a balmy 2 degrees at kickoff, it hovered at or below zero for most of the day with wind chills up to 25 below. That easily made it the coldest Super Bowl in history.
    “A lot of people kept saying Super Bowl in February in Minnesota, this sounds like a terrible idea,” said Eric Dayton, a local entrepreneur who spearheaded the effort to bring the Super Bowl to Minneapolis. “Well, I think it is a great idea and it has been so fun to see all of these out-of-towners outdoors experiencing what we have to offer.”…
    For many, that meant waiting outdoors in dangerous conditions to clear the Level 1 security perimeter and enter the stadium…

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    EVs are a poor financial decision……wealthy toys only…..and even then….

    Basically a throw away item.

    Bet we never see a 40 year old electric paddock basher….

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-06/electric-vehicle-resale-price-compared-to-petrol-diesel-hybrid/9380186

    “Electric vehicles are growing in popularity across the globe but rapid technological advances and plummeting battery prices are shaping up as the industry’s Achilles’ heel when it comes to resale.

    While the cars save consumers thousands of dollars a year in running and maintenance costs, data shows they have been depreciating much faster than petrol, diesel and hybrid cars.

    The problem is they just keep outdoing themselves. This is a new concept for both the automotive industry and consumers who could, in the past, buy a car knowing its technology would not rapidly change in three to five years.

    In just a few short years electric-powered machines have jumped forward in leaps and bounds in a similar fashion to how smartphones have advanced in the electronics industry.

    Travelling range has dramatically improved as battery prices have fallen, meaning manufacturers can produce more for less. But it also means what was once state-of-the-art in the market is now a less valuable item, even in Australia where supply is limited.”

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  • #
  • #
    peter

    2 days after the announcement but still no comment on this site? Premier, Jay Weatherill promises state of SA 50,000 homes will get ‘free’ rooftop solar and batteries – to be partly paid for by electricity prices (subsidy by ratepayers?). It will be the biggest solar generator on the planet, apparently. To follow the biggest windfarms, the biggest battery and the biggest electricity prices.

    I know Jo has done this subject to death but the masses (of media) still believe in the renewables fairytale. 50,000 rooftops with say, 3kW arrays has a total nameplate of 150MW. Say 30% generation, that’s 45MW average. And it would be zero for at least 12 or more hours per day. 45MW in a SA demand of over 2000MW during the day. That’s a game-changer. If Weatherill’s government can fit those arrays and batteries for a cost of just $10,000 (a very good price) that’s $500M out of the state budget – for a 45MW unreliable generator. South Australian people should be really excited.

    Not one journalist has put any of these points to Weathewrill when he made the announcement. Why?

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    • #
      yarpos

      There has been plenty of comment in other threads.

      Although not a fan, you dont really often solve many significant or complex problems with the one big silver bullet solution. There is nothing wrong with taking parts of the problem and working your way towards an answer. Not sure that easily translate to the power grid and an ever increasing perecentage of intermittent power sources.

      Your 45MW is probably optimistic as a fair chunk will go to charging batteries. I can imagine it might help on a hot windless afternoon taking a slice off peak demand and providing power into the early evening, then nada. Overall synchronisation of the network gets further diluted as this progresses.

      Right now the VIC interconnector is pegged or close to it. Has been a lot this morning. Not sure how the mechanism works but there seems a great reluctance to use local generation, and drive the nasty coal fired interconnector as hard as possible.

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      • #
        Just Thinkin'

        “Right now the VIC interconnector is pegged or close to it. Has been a lot this morning. Not sure how the mechanism works but there seems a great reluctance to use local generation, and drive the nasty coal fired interconnector as hard as possible.”

        He’s busy charging his battery with the cheap power supplied by coal
        for when he needs the battery for that special ten seconds, when
        SA black out again….

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    • #
      Dennis

      LUKE GRIFFITHS
      The Weatherill government cannot say who will stump up $770m for a “virtual power plant’’.
      The Australian

      30

    • #
      crakar24

      Peter,

      I believe the original claim was a 250MW PV roof system, which by the way produced as much power as a 1/4 of torrens island.

      What they failed to disclose was:

      A turbine running at 250MW per hour per day will produce 250MW/Hours the PV system will produce in *summer 250MW x 7 / 24 which of course equals 72.91 MW/hours, *winter the formulae is 250 x 3 / 24 or if you like 31.25 MW/hours. This of course is a long way short of a gas turbine at Torrens Island. This is just another example of how we are fast approaching peak stupid.

      Caveat:

      1, The MW/Hour values of the PV depicted rely on each panel facing due North
      2, The pitch of the panels are correctly adjusted as the year progresses
      3, Not one PV panel is covered in shade at any time during the day
      4, All panels are cleaned on a regular basis
      5, Just like the climate models the effects of clouds are not considered ergo no fudge factor is applied

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      Most readers of The Oz seem to now understand the issues and really get stuck into the politicians of both major parties over their ineptitude on the problems of energy supply and EVs.

      30

  • #

    Thought experiment:

    The “greenhouse effect” is claimed to warm the planet by about 33 K; based on a simple radiative model that incorporates an average insolation of one quarter of the power of the sun onto a massless, uniform disc with no thermal capacity or atmosphere.

    In the real world, the temperature of our nearest celestial neighbour (the Moon) exhibits a temperature range of about 100 K to 390 K. Simple arithmetic average of the two numbers is 245 K; pretty close to that predicted for Earth’ surface temperature without a greenhouse. It came to mind however, that as those temperatures are radiative, the averaging should be according to radiative power; i.e. proportional to the fourth power of temperature (T⁴). When one does a simple average of radiative powers and calculates the equivalent temperature, it comes to 328 K, which is quite hot (55°C). Nearly as hot as the arid desert surface on Earth in the middle of a sunny day.

    While the Moon’s average exposure to the Sun is the same as Earth’s, its day is far longer, allowing for more heat to transfer to and from the surface; with corresponding extremes of temperature. (Energy = Power × Time)

    On Earth, we have an additional cushion against rapid changes of temperature by virtue of the thermal capacity/inertia of the atmosphere and the oceans; the magnitude of the latter being practically “infinite” compared to the former. Phase changes in water also cushion changes in temperature; at the surface and in the atmosphere.

    One can endeavour to develop thermodynamically rigorous models of the Earth and its climate-related systems but will ultimately be confronted by a wall of uncertainties and unknowns. Those with any common sense, quickly recognize it as a fool’s errand.

    Will Happer informs us that climate modelling is fraught with inaccuracy or intractability.

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    • #

      I recall that the Lunar Radiometer Orbiter “Diviner” made similar discovery.
      Comparing temperatures on the dark side of the moon with temperatures on the side we see, and the rate at which the lunar surface cools from day to night indicated that the lack of an atmposphere made little difference to the rate of heating and cooling due to the sun’s radiation. I can’t recal the details.

      20

    • #
      crakar24

      Bare in mind Venus has a 200 odd earth day and the temps barely change and it is chock a block with CO2, on the other hand Mars also chock a block has massive extremes in temp.

      You need to add the affects of gravity and pressure to your thought experiment.

      30

  • #
    pat

    these excerpts were found in the comments at Pickering Post today. article is behind paywall:

    6 Feb: Australian: SA election: Weatherill’s ‘virtual power plant’ supersedes previous failures.
    The Weatherill government cannot say where the $770 million needed to fund a 250MW “virtual power plant” will come from following a botched attempt at implementing a much smaller solar scheme over the past four years.

    A day after Labor announced it would give Elon Musk’s Tesla $2m plus a $30m concessional loan to fund a trial that will see 1100 housing trust homes installed with a solar system and lithium-ion battery, Premier Jay Weatherill was criticised for not delivering a promise he made prior to the 2014 state election.

    He said 5000 low-income homes would have solar systems installed by this year, but with South Australians due to go to the polls again on March 17, just 400 homes now have one.

    Labor says the Tesla trial, which it expects to roll out to 50,000 homes by 2022, creating a 250MW “virtual power plant”, supersedes the previous program.
    The latest project, which was not put out for tender, will cost $800m and aside from the government grant and loan, Tesla will fund it through external investors, although the Premier could not say who they were or when that would occur.

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    wal1957

    Just heard on the radio. Apparently a federal parliamentary committee has recommended the rollout of ‘smart meters’ as a means of reducing electricity consumption. They would install the meters as the grid is being built over the next 10-30 years. The idea being that they could increase electricity prices during peak demand…thus using pricing as a means to reduce demand.

    Now, if only we had a few members from this blog sitting in parliament we could tell these idiots that what they should be doing is building more base-load power plants, not penalizing the user for use of what is an essential service.

    The country id being run into the ground by D!@kheads!

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    • #
      Just Thinkin'

      I reckon you are casting aspurgins on the Richard Craniums..

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    • #

      The idea being that they could increase electricity prices during peak demand…thus using pricing as a means to reduce demand.

      So, Winter time has two Peaks one at around 7 to 9AM, and the second and higher peak at around 6PM. The Summer Peak is from around 2PM to 6PM.

      Increasing prices at Peak Times to reduce demand.

      So, for the morning peak, that means forcing people to either get up at 4AM, and do all their pre school and pre work things, you know, breakfast earlier.

      Evening peak, after people get home from school and work. So now they should put off all the things they do when they get home from work, you know, the evening meal, the chores you can’t do during the working day, put them off till say, after 10PM or later.

      Then to help with that Summer Peak, change school hours, work hours, and on and on.

      How do you really think that will go down.

      It’s nothing but a blatant attempt at money gouging, because people will not change the habits of many many generations now. There might be the odd Greenie, (Huh! As if they will change) but to do it on the scale required will be impossible. It will NEVER happen.

      Tony.

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      • #
        crakar24

        Tony,

        The best they could hope for is to shift the time of the peak, after 10pm in your example but a peak it will still be and the gouging continues.

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        • #

          Perhaps they can legislate that people eat their evening meal in shifts, you know the left side of the street from 9 till 10PM, and the right side of the street from 10 till 11PM. Lighting limited to two lights on at any one time. No EV charging, no clothes washing, drying, dishwashing, vacuuming, TV, entertainment, phone charging, heating, cooling, until after midnight, and then up at 4AM for breakfast etc.

          No eating out at Restaurants, as they cannot afford the price rises to open as normal.

          That’ll all work.

          Tony.

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          • #

            Each smart meter supplied with a Free Dolphin Torch.

            Tony.

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            James Murphy

            You’d also need to implement a system where neighbours could report neighbours for breaking the rules, along with a special unit of inspectors, allowed to enter private property, and with powers to arrest people on suspicion of breaking the rules.

            Perhaps they could also hand out identity cards, and track movements, so that anyone found to be visiting a house on the left side of the street, and using electricity when they actually live on the right side can be punished for crimes against the planet, and sent to a re-education facility.

            Then, finally, why not stop all electricity for everyone except those deemed to be important (i.e. politicians and their lackeys) except for special days of the year – Weatherill’s birthday, Andrews’ birthday, Mao’s birthday, Lenin’s birthday…

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            Robber

            I have switched to time of day pricing for a holiday house. Essentially I pay about 26 cents/Kwhr incl GST for peak consumption 7am-11pm Mon-Fri, and 12 cents 11pm-7am Mon-Fri and all weekend. Did the calcs, and because we spend more time there at weekends it saves $$. With a smart meter, some network providers now enable you to download your electricity consumption history for 12 months by 30 minute intervals. Takes a bit of spreadsheet manipulation to calculate peak versus offpeak consumption and compare deals.

            10

          • #
            Annie

            LHS and RHS of the street! Which way are you looking at it?! Which end counts?

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      • #
        Robber

        Tony, simple really for our bungling bureaucrats and pathetic pollies. We will all be rostered onto three 16 hour shifts on a rotating basis. Pity those who draw the short straw and have to sleep through the hottest days, but they will enjoy that hot roast dinner at 6am.

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    • #

      I suggest we substitute the word “intrusive” for the word “smart”. Or maybe “surveilling”. Or maybe not, since we don’t want to sound like we’re questioning the motives of the state and all those corporations which are now so comfortable with the state.

      Pity, because “smart” is a good, tight Anglo word which could be used well a few different ways. But since the Left lost interest in peace, privacy and civil rights and the Right lost interest in family, tradition and property…well, that just leaves us with the state and the corporations. If they want to tell us that their latest imposition is “smart” then I guess we had better not argue.

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    • #
      Graeme#4

      Did that cause a stir in The Oz, which was flooded by comments deriding the meter introduction.

      10

  • #
    Ian1946

    More renewables delusion from SA and Victoria both run by incompetent labor governments.

    Becoming more desperate and silly by the minute, the likes of SA Premier, Jay Weatherill and his bully-boy sidekick, Tom Koutsantonis keep predicting that retail power prices will soon plummet back to earth, thanks to the wonders of wind.
    As American baseball and pop philosopher, Yogi Berra put it: “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future”.

    https://stopthesethings.com/2018/02/05/renewables-reckoning-power-prices-double-in-wind-powered-south-australia-victoria-in-just-12-months/

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  • #
    pat

    “highy redacted” is apparently 95% redacted, according to Carter on “Hannity Show” today, when she held up some of the document, which was almost entirely blacked out:

    5 Feb: Sara Carter: Referral Suggests Clinton Friends Were “Feeding” British Spy Information
    ***Highly redacted document released by Senate Judiciary Committee reveals Christopher Steele wrote an additional memo
    Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, and Lindsey Graham, R-SC, sent a criminal referral regarding Steele’s involvement in the dossier to the Department of Justice referral January 4. The criminal referral confirms that allies of Clinton and the Obama administration were providing Steele with what they deemed damaging information on then candidate-elect Trump. The Senate Judiciary Committee spent more than a month in talks with the DOJ about what parts of the referral, which was classified Top Secret, should be redacted from the document before it became public…

    According to several U.S. Officials who spoke to this reporter, Cody Shearer, a former journalist and close ally of Hillary and Bill Clinton, was closely connected to Steele and shared information with the former spy. Shearer worked in the 90s for President Bill Clinton.

    Steele, whose prior work with British intelligence gave him access to U.S. intelligence and State Department officials, also appeared to be in contact with Jonathan Winer, a current State Department official who also worked under then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton…

    Another connection to the second dossier, according to several sources who spoke to this reporter, is close friend and advisor to Hillary Clinton, Sidney Blumenthal. As reported several weeks ago, Blumenthal’s connection to the dossier still remains somewhat of a mystery but according to several sources he allegedly was one source that Steele used to verify certain aspects of his dossier.

    Department of Justice officials declined to comment on Blumenthal or the dossier.
    FBI officials also declined to comment.
    Blumenthal did not return a phone call seeking comment.
    Blumenthal worked as a White House aide for Bill Clinton, and later worked with the Clinton Foundation…READ ALL
    https://saraacarter.com/referral-suggests-clinton-friends-feeding-british-spy-information/

    5 Feb: Daily Caller: FBI Farewell Party Flyer Celebrated Comey Assistant Going To ‘CNN To Defend’ The FBI
    by Saagar Enjeti
    An official goodbye party flyer for former assistant to FBI Director James Comey, Josh Campbell, told attendees they could celebrate his new position at CNN, where he would “defend the bureau” on air, FBI veteran Jimmy Gagliano writes in a new op-ed for The Hill.

    Gagliano confirmed to The Daily Caller he reviewed a copy of the flyer which told attendees of the party they could “celebrate [Josh’s] new endeavor defending the Bureau as a CNN Law Enforcement Analyst.”…

    Campbell authored a recent op-ed for The New York Times declaring that he was leaving the bureau “so I can join the growing chorus of people who believe that the relentless attacks on the bureau undermine not just America’s premier law enforcement agency but also the nation’s security.” CNN announced Campbell as a law enforcement analyst Monday when he made his television debut…READ ON
    http://dailycaller.com/2018/02/05/fbi-farewell-party-flyer-celebrated-comey-assistant-going-to-cnn-to-defend-the-fbi/?utm_campaign=atdailycaller&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social

    40

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    Robber

    Stop the presses! SA is currently running those dirty diesel generators, 15 MW from SATGN1 and 15 MW from SATGS1. And that big battery keeps discharging 30 MW for a few minutes before recharging. And all generators in SA are receiving $170/MWhr, forecast to increase to $270 at 1730 hours. Would all industry in SA please shutdown now so all greenies can sip their lattes in airconditioned comfort. Today’s peak demand for SA 2390 MW, tomorrow 2620 MW. Meanwhile that wonderful cheap wind is delivering 140 MW in SA and 190 MW in Vic.

    Forecast for tomorrow is hot for SA and Vic, with forecast reserve shortfall for Vic, peak demand today 7260 MW, tomorrow 9070 MW.

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    • #
      Dennis

      The report, undertaken by economic consultancy Principal Economics, found that Australia’s renewable energy sector received subsidies (including the Renewable Energy Target, feed in tariffs and other green policy costs) worth $2.8 billion in 2013-14. This dwarfed the public support for research and demonstration projects for low emissions coal technologies being conducted by the CSIRO and other research bodies (and matched by the coal industry).

      On an output basis, these renewable subsidies translated into almost $412 per megawatt hour (MWh) for solar technologies, $42 per MWh for wind and $18 per MWh for all other renewable sources (including hydro).

      By comparison coal fired power received less than $1 per MWh and natural gas less than 1 cent per MWh delivered.

      In 2013/14, these renewable energy subsidies added between 3 to 9 per cent to the average household bill and up to 20 per cent for some industrial users.

      The report uses the World Trade Organisation’s definition of subsidies, an approach similar to the method used by the Productivity Commission in its annual Trade and Assistance Review.

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      Robber

      The MTPASA result published by AEMO on 6 February 2018 shows Low Reserve Conditions (LRC) in South Australia and Victoria for summer 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2019-20. Please note that MTPASA informs the market of potential LRC’s to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any market intervention or direction from AEMO.

      20

    • #
      RickWill

      The forecast price for both Vic and SA on 7 Feb is the $14,000 cap. Load shedding could be something to watch for.

      AEMO has asked SA gas generators to verify capacity in response to temperatures reaching 40C.

      50

    • #
      Graeme#4

      There was a suggestion that the SA battery discharges when the price is high and recharges when the price is low. If this is true, then the battery doesn’t appear to be benefitting anybody, only making money for its owners.

      40

  • #
    David Maddison

    How do you interpret the stock market correction in terms of Donald Trump’s policies? Unrelated or related?

    12

    • #

      The stock market correction was overdue by any stretch of the imagination.
      A correction of 5 to 10 percent was to be expected by anyone that dabbles in the market.
      The headline “biggest decline in history ” is an excellent example of fake news.
      It might be true in terms of DJI points, but to come down from the unbelievably heady heights of 26000, it is sweet buggar all.
      That is, of course, if it is indeed a bull market CORRECTION. At this point it seems to be just that.

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      • #
        Dennis

        “But there’s an important clarification that should make you feel at least a bit better — it was the worst points decline, not the worst percentage decline.

        And that makes a big difference, as the Wall Street Journal’s financial editor Dennis K Berman pointed out on Twitter:

        “Today’s Dow -4.6% plunge is large and concerning. But it is percentage — not points — that matters. And on that basis, today does not make the Top 25 of worst Dow days.”
        Seen through that lens, the news seems that much less apocalyptic, though it’s still a steep fall.

        More or less, the Dow Jones — which reflects the performance of 30 of America’s biggest companies — has lost the gains that it had made so far this year.”

        30

      • #
        manalive

        The US market has almost doubled in value since the peak in Oct 2007 so some correction is not unexpected, the Dow Jones Industrial has almost quadrupled since Mar 2009.
        By comparison the Australian market performance has been pathetically insipid since the GFC, the All Ords has yet to recover value from late 2007.

        20

      • #
        Another Ian

        Rod

        See 1.1.1 for other potential influences

        10

    • #
      Dennis

      A correction that was inevitable and investors taking profits.

      10

    • #
      Hanrahan

      As in the heady days of the .com bubble many stocks have price/sales ratios not a price/earnings ratio and not only Tesla. Amazon has a PE of 285.

      But I wish Trump would stick to talking about employment and GDP. They are less fickle.

      30

      • #
        Extreme Hiatus

        “But I wish Trump would stick to talking about employment and GDP. They are less fickle.”

        Agree. I shuddered when he started wrapping his arms around that. The Fed and their financial engineers are not his friend.

        10

  • #
    Another Ian

    Jo

    FYI

    Allan Jones was talking to Greg Evans (Minerals Council) this afternoon on the lunacy of Australia ignoring modern coal fired power stations.

    50

    • #
      pat

      Another Ian -

      I heard a part of it but, whilst it was good to hear the Minerals Council make their case, I felt Evans sounded a little cowed. there’s nothing to apologise for, Mr. Evans:

      AUDIO: 9mins56secs: 6 Feb: 2GB: Alan Jones Show: Stop demonising coal
      The Minerals Council of Australia is urging the government to stop demonising coal and sure up Australia’s energy future.
      Wholesale energy prices continue to skyrocket following the closure of coal-fired power stations in Victoria and South Australia.
      Last month tens of thousands of homes were left blacked in Melbourne as energy supplies failed to cope with hot conditions.

      Executive Director of Coal with the Minerals Council Greg Evans tells Alan Jones coal they just want a fair playing ground.
      “It’s been the bedrock of our energy provisions. So much of our economic expansion since the 50s was built off those coal-fired power stations.
      “Many of those power stations are aging, we need to replace them with those high efficiency, low emissions stations.
      “We’re not asking any special favours here. We have the highest quality coal in the world which perfectly matches these new power stations.

      Click PLAY below for the full interview
      https://www.2gb.com/stop-demonising-coal/

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  • #

    Wretched RET,
    wealth REdisTributive -
    to elite bankers and such,
    fear ‘n guilt RETributive
    to all who dare to think that
    life should get better for cits.
    Not – at – all – it’s
    RETrogression, all – the – way
    - back – to – the – Dark- Ages
    for you …

    20

  • #
    Robber

    Lucky our previous pollies had the foresight to build dams and hydro electricity stations. Wouldn’t be allowed to happen today with all those “save the environment greenies”. Right now Tas is producing 1250 MW from hydro and 30% of that is to support Vic. And Vic is getting another 1400 MW from hydro. Hope we don’t run out of water – oh wait, we will, because we will have another drought, as we have regularly had since federation.
    In the AEMO Area, hydro is currently providing a total of 3,000 MW to cover the evening peak. And wonderful wind? 800 MW to contribute to the current demand of 28,000 MW.

    60

    • #
      Hanrahan

      Talking to my neighbour this morn and he said that he thought Kareeya [Tully Falls] had closed because when he drives up to the gate there’s no one there. Just looked it up and it’s still pouring out power after 60 years.

      Is there a theoretical life for hydro stations? The turbines can be replaced but how long before a dam silts up or tunnels erode?

      BTW Does Vic claim ownership of The Snowy?

      10

      • #
        Hanrahan

        The Russians have worked out how to destroy them though. Sadly this one was at the cost of 75 lives. Apparently intake grills were removed or never fitted and a tree trunk caused a massive hydraulic ram effect.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Sayano–Shushenskaya_power_station_accident

        10

        • #
          Peter C

          I used to think that Hydro electric power was Clean, Green and Safe.

          From my reading of the article the problem was poor repairs and maintenance over a long period and also soviet style management.

          20

      • #

        When I worked for General Electric I spent some time at an Abitibi Price mill in Grand Falls, NFLD.
        The job was on a 10,000 HP electric motor.
        The electricity in Grand Falls at the time (1977) was generated in a hydro-electric generator built in the 1890′s.
        The turbine and alternator rotor ran on lignum vitae bearing. The kept a few logs submerged as raw material to manufacture new bearings.
        If the pulp mill is still operating, I suspect that hydro-electric gen set is still running. No reqason that it wouldn’t be.

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      • #
        Dennis

        Snowy Hydro Limited has a long and proud history as an Australian company. The construction of the Snowy Mountains Hydro-electric Scheme is a well documented part of our nation’s history and we are a great example of Aussie innovation and ingenuity. Snowy Hydro is owned by the New South Wales Government, the Victorian Government and the Commonwealth Government.

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  • #
    Another Ian

    With a bit of rewording the new South Australian anthem

    “And take it to the limit one more time”

    https://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/eagles/takeittothelimit.html

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  • #
    Extreme Hiatus

    Looks like the IPCC is ramping up their propaganda machine with a shift away from their now inconvenient ‘hard’ science to more ‘social science.’

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/30/communicating-the-science-is-a-much-needed-step-for-un-climate-panel

    Can’t seem to copy any text off that site anymore. Maybe a subscription is now required?

    10

  • #
    Another Ian

    “Globalism Strikes Back: Anti-Brexit Party Inspired by Macron, Supported by French MPs to Launch in UK”

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2018/02/06/globalism-anti-brexit-party-macron-french-mps-launch-uk/

    Well I guess it worked in 1066 so maybe this time?

    30

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      Macron and other elites preparing the way for their retirement need all the serfs they can get.

      When you can’t put funds away for later in the Clinton Foundation, it has to be bruxelles.

      20

    • #
      yarpos

      Iamgine if the roles were reversed and the Poms where overtly interfering in French society and politics. Mon Dieu!

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  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Cue the next gasp in the money trough activity……

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-02-06/lower-stratosphere-atmosphere-ozone-layer-decline-climate/9400164

    “The ozone layer high above Antarctica might be mending nicely, but the rest of the world tells a different story.

    A long-term overview of satellite data shows that ozone levels are actually dropping in the lower stratosphere: the layer of the atmosphere about 10 to 20 kilometres above Earth’s surface.

    The effect was seen across most of the world, too: as far north as the Scottish highlands and as far south as the southernmost tip of Chile.

    And while atmospheric chemists can’t yet put their finger on the ozone-draining culprit, global warming is likely playing a leading role, according to atmospheric chemist Stephen Wilson from University of Wollongong.

    But wait….theres more…..cue the next wheeze……

    “If you look at predictions of change due to climate change on ozone, it’s exactly the pattern you’d expect to see,” said Dr Wilson, who was not involved in the research.”

    Right…………….everyone PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    And hand over your cheque books……more study needed……apaprently……

    “Overall, the total amount of ozone in the entire atmosphere appears to be holding steady, but that’s because ozone levels in the troposphere — the lower part of the atmosphere, where we live — are rising.

    And that’s not good news.

    Ozone doesn’t belong down here and the increase in tropospheric ozone is mostly due to air pollution, commented Robyn Schofield, an atmospheric chemist from the University of Melbourne.

    “[Burning fossil fuels] produces nitrogen oxides and they go on to produce ozone,” she said.

    Breathing ozone not only damages our lungs, it’s bad for crops too, she added.”

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      sophocles

      Oh wow. Ozone is missing from the atmosphere and scientists don’t know why

      Settle down there now, Ms Smith. Don’t get so giddy you’ll go all vaporous on us.
      There is an explanation for all this, apart from that offered by Stupid Scientists.

      What creates ozone in the stratosphere? How is it made?

      Well, your article says:

      It’s formed when sunlight hits and busts apart oxygen molecules (O2) in the stratosphere, creating two freewheeling oxygen atoms.

      These free atoms bihttps://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535nd with other oxygen molecules, creating ozone molecules (O3) which help block UV radiation before it can reach the planet’s surface.

      Specifically, stratospheric ozone is both created and destroyed by UV light: UV-B. You, Ms Smith, got that part right. So if there isn’t as much there as there used-to-once-upon-a-time-did-was, wouldn’t it be advisable to look at the current state of Solar activity before making a fool of oneself by declaring “it’s exactly the pattern you’d expect to see because of Climate Change,” as Dr Wilson of Wollongong University has? (Dr. Wilson has offered himself as a candidate for the 2018 Pratties at Pointman’s with that devout outburst.)

      It couldn’t possibly be because the Sun is sinking into a very low minimum now Solar Cycle 24 is coming to an end. TSI is constant. Well, yes and no. UV radiation is the one part of TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) which varies dramatically over the 11-year sun spot cycle by +/- 15% not the +/- 0.1% so beloved of the IPCC for the visible and infra-red wavelengths. And it’s what makes ozone in the stratosphere. Less UVB-B, then less ozone. QED.

      It’s exactly the pattern you’d expect to see from a snoozing parent star.“.

      The sun is presently going for days at a time without any spots. It had a brief burst of activity for a few days last year including one of the largest X-class flares to be seen for a long while, which helped super-charge Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria.

      “You can imagine a saucepan. If you put more energy into a saucepan, the lid rattles more,” Dr Wilson said.

      Okay, he’s got some really old saucepans there. Only one of my saucepans does that—the oldest one, I bught over forty years ago. The newer ones just get on and cook. :-) But put some energy into a small hurricane and you can have not just a bigger one but several big ones.

      However, the Sun is not one of Dr. Wilson’s saucepans, nor one of mine. Instead we are looking at the fastest decline in solar activity in 9300 years according to the iceagenow website and some discussion about regional responses at the nature.com website. (I’ve yet to read the nature.com article, so I can’t comment on it.)

      But, if Dr. Wilson wants to make a fool of himself, who are we to stop him?

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      sophocles

      Thanks for that so entertaining link, OriginalSteve.
      Sorry for getting these two back-to-front. I’ll have to wait until I stop laughing so hard, in future.
      :-)

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    robert rosicka

    Ozone is missing from the atmosphere and the scientists don’t know what caused it but of course they suspect it has to be globull warming .

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    robert rosicka

    Ozone is missing from the atmosphere and the scientists don’t know what caused it but of course they suspect it has to be globull warming .

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    robert rosicka

    Ozone is missing from the atmosphere and the scientists don’t know what caused it but of course they suspect it has to be globull warming . Welcome http://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-02-06/lower-stratosphere-atmosphere-ozone-layer-decline-climate/9400164

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      Lionell Griffith

      The last line of the article:

      “What we’re seeing here is something we don’t understand yet,” he said.

      Finally, a statement from a climastrologist I can believe. I seriously don’t think they understand all that much about anything. Like that old joke about it being turtles all the way down, for them it is models all the way down. Oh and send more money for more research and stop expecting to stay alive and thriving. He didn’t write that but it is there somewhere.

      They pieced together data from different satellites that used different methods to measure the ozone level. Each satellite all got different results. Magically, due to their models I presume, they found a lowered level of ozone except for the Antarctic as expected and raised levels the troposphere. Which, they presume was due to burning fossil fuel making nitric oxide AND global warming. Warming that hasn’t been happening for the last almost 20 years.

      It is nothing but wall to all “Stop the Industrial Revolution and eliminate Technological Civilization at all costs” no matter what they find. It is Chicken Little science on a bad day. At least Chicken Little had something fall from above and hit her head. They don’t even have that much actual evidence that hasn’t been corrupted by their sacred models. Sacred because they are so poorly programmed that no one knows what they do or how they do it. Hence they are “unquestionable”.

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    robert rosicka

    What the ?

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    pat

    6 Feb: Eco-Business: Saving two birds with one stone: A carbon credit product that also preserves biodiversity
    A new type of carbon credit launched by sustainability consultancy South Pole enables companies to support biodiversity protection efforts as well as offset their greenhouse gas emissions.
    By Vaidehi Shah
    The Australian branch of global sustainability consultancy South Pole on Monday launched a new product that allows companies to offset their carbon emissions and support the protection of Australian biodiversity at the same time.

    The product, called EcoAustralia, combines internationally verified carbon credits with “biodiversity credits” that have been endorsed by the Australian government. Each biodiversity credit represents 1.5 square metres of land under protection.
    Jay van Rijn, senior key account manager, South Pole, told Eco-Business that “EcoAustralia is unique because it is the only product in the Australian carbon market which produces a transparent, measurable and direct investment in the environment”.

    Currently, the sale of EcoAustralia credits supports one of two projects in Victoria. One initiative, the Lavers Hill project, manages threats from land fragmentation through practices such as pest control, weeding, and fence maintenance.
    The second effort, the Myamyn project, carries out replanting and habitat preservation work in the Annya State forest, which is home to native endangered species such as the Scented Spider-orchid, the Powerful Owl, and the Long-nosed Potoroo…

    Companies based outside Australia can also buy the EcoAustralia credits, said van Rijn. For instance, an international firm which has offices or operations in the country may choose to offset their carbon footprint using this product.

    South Pole, which is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, has partnered with environmental firm Cassinia Environmental, which handles the administrative aspect of processing the biodiversity credits as well as the on-the-ground efforts in the forest projects. South Pole is also developing new projects in New South Wales and Queensland.

    Paul Dettman, founder and director, Cassinia Environmental, said that the EcoAustralia’s combination of carbon credits with biodiversity protection efforts means “we can actually have an on-the-ground positive effect on Australia’s biodiversity”…

    Despite delivering benefits beyond mere carbon offsets, van Rijn said that EcoAustralia credits are “very competitive” compared to those purchased via the Emissions Reduction Fund, a carbon offset scheme operated by the Australian government. It is difficult to put an exact price on an EcoAustralia credit because it varies significantly with the volume of credits purchased, van Rijn explained.

    One organisation that has already bought EcoAustralia credits is the Melbourne Airport…
    http://www.eco-business.com/news/saving-two-birds-with-one-stone-a-carbon-credit-product-that-also-preserves-biodiversity/

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      pat

      Wikipedia: South Pole Group
      The company started as a spin-off from the ETH Zurich (Swiss Institute of Technology). In 2006 the founders of myclimate joined with former World Bank officers, UNFCCC experts and McKinsey & Company consultants to found the company. Initially called South Pole Carbon, the company has rebranded to South Pole Group…
      In 2010, South Pole Group opened its offices in India, where its first project Malavalli was the first project in the world to issue CDM Gold Standard credits…
      In 2012, the firm acquired a major stake in Australia’s leading carbon offset retailer Climate Friendly…

      The firm has sixteen offices around the globe in Europe, Middle East, Americas and Asia and operations in 25 countries and a portfolio of over 500 projects, centering on renewable energy, forestry, energy efficiency, waste management and methane avoidance…
      The firm initiated the first issuances of Gold Standard certificates worldwide, the first Social Carbon offset certificates in South-east Asia and the first native species Voluntary Carbon Standard forestry project in South America…

      With the inking of the Paris Agreement at the COP21 climate conference, South Pole Group has announced its determination to turn climate change into an enormous opportunity for companies and organisations alike…
      South Pole Group is at present one of the major global advisors for climate-related policies, sustainable supply chains, climate smart cities, and climate impact assessment for investments…

      South Pole Group serves a wide array of clients in both the public and the private sector, such as DHL, who offers carbon neutral shipping, and Eneco Energie, who provides green sustainable energy.

      The company partners also with numerous organisations, among them the WWF…
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pole_Group

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    pat

    reminder:

    1 Jul 2013: CNS News: Obama: ‘Planet Will Boil Over’ If Young Africans Are Allowed Cars, Air-Conditioning, Big Houses by Ryan Kierman
    President Barack Obama said at a town hall event in Johannesburg, South Africa, on Saturday that unless we find new way of producing energy “the planet will boil over” if people in Africa are allowed to attain air conditioning, automobiles and big houses.

    “Ultimately, if you think about all the youth that everybody has mentioned here in Africa, if everybody is raising living standards to the point where everybody has got a car and everybody has got air conditioning, and everybody has got a big house, well, the planet will boil over — unless we find new ways of producing energy.”

    The president’s comments, made the day before unveiling his “Power Africa” initiative for a “sustainable” African energy strategy, came while speaking at University of Johannesburg-Soweto.
    According to Obama, global warming constitutes “the biggest challenge we have environmentally,” one greater than all other environmental calamities like “dirty water, dirty air.”…
    https://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/obama-planet-will-boil-over-if-young-africans-are-allowed-cars-air-conditioning-big

    same old song, with a bit of a twist:

    5 Feb: UK Independent: Developing world cannot sustainably achieve same living standards as West, says study
    by Josh Gabbatiss
    High standards of living for all the world’s inhabitants would require up to six times as many resources as the planet can sustainably provide, a new global study has found…
    However, achieving the high standards of living of the type enjoyed by people in many Western countries is not feasible.

    “It’s also not really possible for the developed world to continue having their standards of living,” said Dr Daniel O’Neill, a sustainability researcher at the University of Leeds who led the study…
    “So really we need to reduce resource use substantially in wealthy nations and at the same time we need to increase resource use in developing countries,” Dr Daniel O’Neill said…
    The findings were published in the journal Nature Sustainability (LINK)…

    Pursuing the highest levels of wellbeing for all, for example, could negatively impact efforts to combat climate change…

    “We need to take the lead in wealthy countries like the US and the UK, and dramatically begin to reduce our resource use,” he said. “At higher and higher levels of resource use you get less and less ‘bang for your buck’ in terms of the social returns.
    In practical terms, this means that resource use in the UK could be decreased significantly with no loss in the wellbeing of the country’s inhabitants, according to Dr O’Neill…

    The research took into consideration several “planetary boundaries” which, if exceeded, could lead to catastrophic damage.
    Previously, earth system scientists have described these boundaries as essential for maintaining the relatively stable conditions the planet has experienced for the past 10,000 years. They define a “safe operating space” in which the Earth can exist…

    They have set up an interactive website (LINK) to accompany their work, in an effort to “foster discussions about the meaning of a good life for all, and what it would mean for nations to thrive within planetary boundaries”…

    “Radical changes are needed if all people are to live well within the limits of the planet,” said Dr Julia Steinberger, another of the study’s co-authors. “These include moving beyond the pursuit of economic growth in wealthy nations, shifting rapidly from fossil fuels to renewable energy, and significantly reducing inequality.”
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/developing-world-west-living-standards-sustainable-products-luxury-africa-asia-us-south-america-a8195416.html

    New Scientist also has this behind paywall.

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    pat

    5 Feb: LSE/Grantham: Bob Ward: ‘Lukewarmer’ wrong again about climate change impacts
    On 30 January, Viscount Ridley asked the following question during a debate in the House of Lords (LINK) about climate-related financial disclosures:
    “Does my noble friend agree that climate-related financial disclosures should take into account the fact that the consensus among climate economists and, indeed, in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is that the economic impacts will be positive for the next 40 or 50 years?”

    This question contains claims that are false, and provides further evidence of the propaganda campaign being carried out by so-called ‘lukewarmers’ like Viscount Ridley.
    There is no consensus that the economic impacts will be positive for the next 40 or 50 years, and most of the evidence suggests that the aggregate impacts are already negative and will become progressively worse with further rises in global mean surface temperature…

    I have written to Viscount Ridley to make him aware that his errors have been spotted (PDF)(LINK). It is somewhat surprising that he has tried to make such erroneous claims, particularly after the embarrassment of making a similar assertion in an article for ‘The Spectator’ in October 2013, based on a flawed journal article by Professor Richard Tol. Viscount Ridley is a member of the ***all-male “Academic Advisory Council” of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, which was set up by Lord Lawson to campaign against policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Professor Tol was also, until recently, a member of the Council as well…
    http://www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute/news/lukewarmer-wrong-climate-change-impacts/

    5 Feb: The Hill: Green group threatens to sue State Dept. over absent climate-change report
    By Miranda Green
    In a letter, the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) asked Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to produce the seventh annual report on climate change that is mandated under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). The report was due Jan. 1.
    “The State Department has failed to submit the Seventh Climate Action Report by the mandated due date, much less issue any statements of the report’s preparation, draft texts, and notifications of public comment opportunities for the report’s final issuance — a process that has, in the past, taken over a year,” the letter read…

    “Accordingly, unless the State Department commits to complete these steps expeditiously, the Center for Biological Diversity intends to file suit to compel the State Department’s action to issue the final report for UNFCCC compliance,” the letter read…

    A State Department spokesperson confirmed to The Hill that the report is forthcoming, saying in a statement Monday, “The State Department intends to submit a National Communication to the UNFCCC. The report is under development.”
    The State Department has also yet to commence the public comment period necessary before releasing the report.
    http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/372331-green-group-threatens-lawsuit-over-missing-state-dept-report-on

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    pat

    we are smarter than you:

    5 Feb: InsideClimateNews: Georgina Gustin: Troubled by Trump’s Climate Denial, Scientists Aim to Set the Record Straight
    The president’s lack of understanding of climate science has led top science groups, including the UN’s climate panel, to offer their expertise in simpler ways
    Even for the adamantly apolitical American Meteorological Society, President Donald Trump’s fumbling disputations of climate change in a recent television interview were too much.
    So, on its collegiate, old-school letterhead, the society’s executive director, Keith Seitter, wrote the president a polite but pointed message last week…
    “Certainly, many scientists have been frustrated by misstatements by the president and members of his administration,” Seitter said. “Many of these scientists are AMS members, so yes, this has been an issue of concern within our membership.”…

    They’re also aware that scientific studies are often written in technical, jargon-laden ways that can be difficult for non-scientists to understand…
    Last week, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a handbook to help its members better communicate the findings of a new IPCC report, due out later this year…

    In a forward, Roz Pidcock (EX CARBON BRIEF), the IPCC’s head of communications, writes that the handbook maintains a “focus on practical guidance for real public engagement scenarios” and notes that this is the first time the IPCC has produced a document of its kind.

    Adam Corner, research director at Climate Outreach, the UK-based group commissioned to write the handbook, said being able to help people understand what the evidence shows is even more critical now…
    “In the U.S., the landscape for communicating climate change has undoubtedly got more hostile since Trump began removing the capacity and resources from environmental science initiatives,” Corner explained…
    https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04022018/climate-science-trump-denial-meteorological-society-expertise-ipcc-simplify-communication

    6 Feb: Reuters: Chinese state-owned energy companies to form coal, power trading JV
    by Muyu Xu and Josephine Mason
    Six Chinese state-owned energy companies will form a joint venture to trade coal and electricity and invest in an electric transmission system to better connect Shanxi and Jiangsu provinces.
    The announcement follows the Chinese government’s plans to streamline its state-owned coal industry by consolidating coal miners and encouraging coal companies to undertake more tie-ups with electricity, shipping and iron and steel firms…

    Shanxi is China’s second-biggest coal mining province with output of 854 million tonnes in 2017, while the eastern province Jiangsu is the second-biggest electricity consuming region and imports nearly one-fifth of its power from other regions…

    ““The joint venture will be a new starting point to encourage other provinces to extend equity cooperation into all sectors, such as coal, coke, steel and aluminum, in Shanxi,” said Wang Yixin, a vice governor in Shanxi province, according to the statement.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-energy-coal-electricity/chinese-state-owned-energy-companies-to-form-coal-power-trading-jv-idUSKBN1FQ1EY

    BP profits quadruple on higher oil prices and new projects
    Financial Times · 5 hours ago

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    RAH

    For anyone that still doubts how deadly a bullet we dodged when Donald Trump was elected:
    Hillary the climate moron. And her followers say that Trump is a dangerous idiot?
    Watch the video as she works to indoctrinate foolish young women at Georgetown University. (Their parents pay big bucks for them to get this dung.)
    http://freebeacon.com/politics/clinton-women-primarily-burdened-climate-change/

    Uh, Hillary! The smartest woman on earth! And the most qualified person ever to be the POTUS. https://townhall.com/columnists/dwwilber/2015/08/27/smartest-woman-in-the-world-n2043271
    Most of North Africa went through “desertification” long before you were born. It’s called the Sahara Desert!

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    David Maddison

    Graham Hancock talks about impact events and ancient civilisations.

    https://youtu.be/K1BkMqtWMns

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    RAH

    Ok, lets try it this way:
    For anyone that still doubts how deadly a bullet we dodged when Donald Trump was elected:
    Watch the video as she works to indoctrinate young women at Georgetown University. (Their parents pay big bucks for them to get this.)
    http://freebeacon.com/politics/clinton-women-primarily-burdened-climate-change/
    Uh, Hillary! The smartest woman on earth! And the most qualified person ever to be the POTUS. https://townhall.com/columnists/dwwilber/2015/08/27/smartest-woman-in-the-world-n2043271
    Most of North Africa went through “desertification” long before you were born. It’s called the Sahara Desert! These people live in a fantasy land.

    It sometimes is tough for this US citizen to get used to the rules in Australia which tend to stifle free speech. So I cleaned up this post so that it may be presentable by Aussie standards. Now I’ve got a team run to do running a 2,700 mi round trip down to Laredo, TX and back so will only have my phone to respond to anyone. Have a nice day!

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    Another Ian

    As one comment has it

    “GE meets Venezuela”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2018/02/what-could-poss-48.html#comments

    And comments

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    Robber

    Another hot day above 36 degrees for Victoria and South Australia, and another day when wholesale electricity prices are forecast to be above $10,000/MWhr from 3-7pm compared to the average daily price of $100/MWhr. Meanwhile in NSW/Qld the peak price will be just $100/MWhr.
    Imagine the uproar if on days of high petrol demand pump prices went from $1.40/litre to $140/litre.

    Something stinks in what is supposed to be a free market. As Tony has previously explained, each five minutes every generator bids a price at which they will supply electricity into the grid. Lowest bids are accepted first and the price builds until demand is satisfied. But then, every supplier gets paid the highest bid price. So today, even the owners of those old reliable coal generators at Loy Yang that are delivering 3000 MW 24/7 will be partying as they share in a bonus of $120 million from just those 4 hours.

    Who are the owners? Loy Yang A has four generating units with a combined capacity of 2,200 MW. In June 2012 AGL Energy acquired Loy Yang A and the Loy Yang coal mine for $3.5 billion. Loy Yang B has two units with a capacity of 1,050 MW and is Victoria’s newest and most efficient brown coal-fired power station. In November 2017, Engie & Mitsui sold Loy Yang B to Alinta for $1 billion.

    But what I would really like to discover is the generators and the owners of those last increment supplies who will only supply this essential service at a price not even at $1,000/MWhr but only at above $10,000/MWhr. Can anyone find those details in AEMO data files? Is it selected natural gas stations, or is it the hydro generators?

    The wholesale market appears to be broken, delivering excessive windfall profits to suppliers. If a generator bids $50, then that bid should be accepted, they should not be rewarded because someone bids a higher price. And those who bid $10,000 should be named.

    With pollies waffling on about affordable electricity and “promising” lower prices in 2020 or 2030, is the immediate remedy to change the market pricing mechanism?

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      yarpos

      what would you change it to? what mechanism would you use stop suppliers not bidding for fear of getting stuck with the low price? just wondering what would work or what is done elsewhere.

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        sophocles

        Nationalise them. Put it all back to how it was. The experiment has failed.

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        Robber

        See Bryan Leyland’s submission to the AEMC review.
        He suggests:
        The market structure, based on an assumption that electricity is a “commodity like any other” is fatally flawed. “Market commodities” have price elasticity and an alternative good must be available. Electricity does not have price elasticity because its value is far greater than its price. And there is no alternative good – you can’t run a computer on gas. For a reliable and economic supply, we need to have a reliable supply of kWh at the lowest possible price and a guarantee that sufficient MW will be available to meet peak demands.

        Because generators control the price when there is a shortage and they also control the amount of generation available they are often able to game the market. Which they do. In an efficiently operated power system each new increment of generation is selected on the basis that it will lead to the lowest overall cost of generation. No Inducement to do this exists with the current market.

        Changing the market into a two commodity market kWh and MW) would make a big improvement and would be relatively easy to do. At the same time all subsidies for renewable energy and energy storage systems should be abandoned. A single buyer market where a central entity – as free as possible from government control – manages and optimises power generation, contracts with each existing generator on a long-term basis based on paying an annual sum to cover capital costs, operation and maintenance and profit and paying for fuel at cost is a much better option.
        When new generation is needed international tenders are issued that describe the need – base load or peaking for instance – and whether or not there are preferred locations. The tender is awarded based on the offer that provides the lowest cost of generation.

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      PeterS

      We can only have a true “free market” when we have true competition. At the moment it’s all too much like a collusion backed by the government to promote ever increasing profits for the fat cats. It’s one reason why the left are rising up in protest – and frankly that’s one area where I don’t blame them despite the fact I consider the left as far worse and in effect nation destroyers.

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        el gordo

        Turnbull prefers the trickle down effect, while Shorten fancies a trickle up recovery.

        Will they find a compromise solution?

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          PeterS

          You are forgetting about the elephant in the room – debt. It’s going to explode with catastrophic consequences, and neither of them can prevent it. Both in fact are encouraging it, just in slightly different ways.

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            el gordo

            Wages and inflation are low and apart from the property bubble in capital cities, the fundamentals are sound.

            In this environment debt is not a problem.

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        sophocles

        Electricity generation, and distribution, if it is to be done cheaply, efficiently and economically, is a natural monopoly. It’s the nature of the beast. That’s what Aus had, and it worked extremely well. Monopolies should always be publicly owned. If they’re not, they quickly abuse their customers with gross overcharging.

        You’ve tried the `free market’ and it’s inefficient, incredibly expensive and unreliable.

        So stop talking nonsense and Nationalise it.

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      RickWill

      It is typically the hydro. They control such a large block of easily varied output that they can set the price. They also have a good idea when they will be the supplier of last resort. There is no point bidding in a high price for a tiny output. They need to pick a day when they will be supplying at high output and then just push the price. The perched water storage is limited so it makes sense to get as much as you can for the stored water.

      The practice is viewed as gaming the system but fast response on-demand output is of increasing value as the wind and solar market share increases.

      Coal do not want to be going up and down so they bid at a price that keeps them generating most of the time.

      The data is there showing the bids so you can see who is setting the price. It will not be wind because they have standing bids at negative prices. You need to go through the history files on the AEMO site.

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        Robber

        But isn’t most hydro owned by governments? So governments are gaming the system to maximise the tax we must pay on electricity? So not only do we pay for the renewable certificates at $85/MWhr in our bills, governments are forcing up our bills by bidding high on spot prices? Simple solution, reduce the ceiling price from $14,200/MWhr to $200/MWhr.
        We are being scammed by bungling bureaucratic governments and their fat cat commissions.
        We have the AER, AEMC, AEMO, CER, ESC, COAG, as well as multiple state departments of energy.

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          Robber

          Here we go again with a $$$ bonanza for all generators in SA/Vic.
          At 1.30pm SA supplies 2267 MW @ $337/MWhr, at 2.30pm 2262 MW @ $505, at 3pm 2455 MW @ $13,000 and at 5pm 2750 MW @ $14,200/MWhr.
          While in Vic, at 1.30 pm supply was 8,000 MW @ $297/MWhr, at 2.30pm 8495 MW @ $920, at 3pm 8680 MW @ $11,500, and at 5pm 9105 MW @ $13,000 MW/Mwhr.

          So between the two states, to get an incremental 1500 MW of supply for the late afternoon peak, the entire supply of 11,750 MW must receive over $11,500/MWhr. Average monthly price around $100/MWhr. Something smells bad.

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          Hanrahan

          For the last few days Tas has been importing, steadily. A quick search did not find low water levels. Today, with high prices, presto! they have enough to export. If they are genuinely husbanding water because it is seen as limited then that’s OK and consistent with my belief that hydro power is wonderful in spite of being limited during droughts. Far better to say that you can only generate to meet peaks, and then do so than to say [wind] can meet demand, maybe, just don’t ask when.

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            Rod Stuart

            Hydro Tasmania’s mandate is to optimise revenue for the owner; the State government.
            It is interesting to note that with an election coming next month, the State eyes leaving the NEM.
            This is completely logical, as the State can be self sufficient except for severe droughts, and with wholesale prices about to go over the moon in the NEM, some protection can be provided to Tasmanian electricity customers.

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    pat

    very lengthy, and informative:

    6 Feb: CNBC: Clay Dillow: Russia and China vie to beat the US in the trillion-dollar race to control the Arctic
    With more than half of all Arctic coastline along its northern shores, Russia has long sought economic and military dominance in part of the world where as much as $35 trillion worth of untapped oil and natural gas could be lurking…
    Now China is pushing its way into the Arctic, announcing last month its ambitions to develop a “Polar Silk Road” through the region…

    At play is between one-fifth and a quarter of the world’s untapped fossil-fuel resources, not to mention a range of mineable minerals, including gold, silver, diamond, copper, titanium, graphite, uranium and other valuable rare earth elements…

    Seaport facilities, mining operations, oil and gas pipelines — as well as new roads, railways and airstrips to serve them — are arriving in the region at an accelerating pace. An inventory of planned, in-progress, completed or canceled Arctic infrastructure projects compiled by global financial firm Guggenheim Partners tallies roughly 900 projects, requiring a total of $1 trillion in investment, some of which is already on the way…

    With $300 billion in potential projects either completed, in motion or proposed, Russia is the clear leader in Arctic infrastructure development…
    State-controlled oil company Rosneft started drilling the northernmost rig in the Russian Arctic shelf last year in an attempt to tap into a field that could hold more than half a billion barrels of oil. In June it found its first oilfield, in the Laptev Sea in the eastern Arctic. Meanwhile, Russian energy giant Gazprom Neft already pumps oil from beneath Arctic waters via a different offshore field, in the Pechora Sea.
    The ultimate goal: to have offshore Arctic oil account for between 20 and 30 percent of Russian production by 2050…

    Finland, the United States and Canada have also proposed significant infrastructure investment within their respective Arctic zones. Norway’s state energy company is pursuing exploration activities in the far reaches of the Barents Sea even as its sovereign wealth fund considers divesting from fossil fuels…

    A look at Russia’s icebreaker inventory underscores its commitment to the region; Russia has nearly 40 icebreaker ships in service, with five more under construction and six more planned. Finland, owner of the world’s second-largest icebreaker fleet has seven, followed by Canada and Sweden at six apiece. The U.S. has five, only one of which is a so-called heavy icebreaker. Scrambling to update its aging fleet, the U.S. Coast Guard plans to build six more (three heavy and three medium icebreakers), though the first won’t be delivered until 2023…

    The story of the New Arctic could nonetheless prove slow to unfold. Though the ice is receding, the Arctic remains a difficult environment in which to operate. The intense cold alone presents challenges not present in other maritime environments, and while sea-ice measurements from last year were, on average, a full quarter lower than the average across three decades prior to 2010, there’s still plenty of ice in the water. Shipping concerns dreaming of an Arctic that’s both easily navigable and inexpensive to traverse will have to wait, perhaps for decades…
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/06/russia-and-china-battle-us-in-race-to-control-arctic.html

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    • #
      yarpos

      But, but, why is there an icebreaker arms race?? with all the ice gone wont that be a bit silly? is it for the kiddies so they can see what we needed when their was ice there. I’m so confused, I will have to watch my old Al Gore speeches and movies. I must have got something wrong.

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    crakar24

    I would like to wish Elon all the best today with his guiness book of records attempt to be the first to own a car in space. I suspect it will fail like all the others, btw for those interested have a look at his 2016 static test with a secret Israeli payload. Pay particulat interest to the roundish object in the back ground travelling at very high speed just as the rocket explodes.

    I hope the silver ball does not show up again for Elons sake.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      A tesla in space…about the right spot for it…add to the rest of the space junk….

      The irony….using all that rocket fuel to launch an electric shopping trolley into space…you have to wonder….

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      • #
        crakar24

        Lets think about this for a moment………………….

        You want to launch something big and heavy into space so you build a really big rocket but its risky so you dont want to put the actual payload in the rocket in case it crash and burns.

        So you simulate the weight of the payload, launch the rocket, get the telemetry data and analyse it to ensure the rocket can carry the payload into space………..no you dont do that you put a car in it instead.

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    • #
      Peter C

      SPACEX
      The team seemed to land the two side boosters at Cape Canaveral successfully.

      I am not sure what happened to the rest of the mission.

      Does anyone have an update?

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  • #
    crakar24

    He has a bad habit of losing sats, cars are cheaper perhaps he thinks if he tells everyone its a car it wont mysteriously blow up

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    • #
      yarpos

      Main booster speared in near the target barge. Apparently 2 of the 3 rockets needed to slow down its arrival failed to start. The payload is off on its journey. Expect attacks from enraged aliens seeking retribution for sending a flaming load of Lion batteries into their planet.

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  • #
    pat

    guaranteed? ***will produce 1.5 million MW hours of renewable energy annually…

    7 Feb: BallaratCourier(Fairfax): Work set to start on Qld wind farm project
    As debate rages over Adani’s controversial Carmichael coal mine, construction will quietly begin on Australia’s largest wind farm project in the same state.
    The first sod will be turned on the Coopers Gap Wind Farm, in Queensland’s northern Darling Downs, 250km northwest of Brisbane, on Wednesday morning.

    Due to be completed in 2019, the 453-megawatt wind turbine project, located between Dalby and Kingaroy, ***will produce 1.5 million MW hours of renewable energy annually…

    AGL Energy secured environmental approval for the project last year and it is expected to be developed at a cost of $500 million…
    Construction on Adani’s proposed mega-mine, to be the largest coal mine in the southern hemisphere, was to have been fully under way in central Queensland’s Galilee Basin but was held up by environmental concerns.
    http://www.thecourier.com.au/story/5213402/work-set-to-start-on-qld-wind-farm-project/?cs=7

    subscription required:

    6 Feb: AFR: Exclusive: Labor grappling with how to oppose Adani mine
    by Phillip Coorey & Mark Ludlow
    Federal Labor has all but resolved to oppose the $16.5 billion Adani coal mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin but is grappling to come up with a rationale to avoid increasing Australia’s sovereign risk or exposing the Commonwealth to a compensation claim.
    Sources have told The Australian Financial Review that while the shadow cabinet is not split on the issue, there are differing views about how to reach a position of outright opposition given the mine proposal has cleared all state and federal…

    3 Feb: Livemint: Adani says opposition to Australia projects abetted by NGOs, competitors
    Gautam Adani says in recent years their project has faced intense resistance abetted by some international NGOs and competitors who have turned to vicious personal attacks
    “However in recent years our project has faced intense resistance abetted by some international NGOs and competitors who have turned to vicious personal attacks and used the press to their advantage,” said Adani, who rarely addresses public forum.

    The coal mining project in Australia would create significant job opportunities within Australia, while bringing energy security to 18,000 villages in India that have no access to electricity. The group’s planned investments in Australia, Adani said, is the “largest overseas greenfield investment ever” by any Indian company…

    “The fact is that renewable energy technologies are not currently ready to provide uninterrupted base load power. The fact is that it is our responsibility to get electricity to the Indian child who needs to light that single bulb to educate himself,” Adani said. He said in India there are 300 million citizens that lack access to power and the country is one of the lowest emitters of carbon-dioxide on a per capita basis…
    http://www.livemint.com/Companies/SJxEPookgpxIyLkFdRZCzI/Adani-says-opposition-to-Australia-projects-abetted-by-NGOs.html

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    • #

      There’s that same d@mned figure again. It’s been haunting me, and no one has an answer to it ….. 38%.

      Due to be completed in 2019, the 453-megawatt wind turbine project, located between Dalby and Kingaroy, ***will produce 1.5 million MW hours of renewable energy annually…

      Right from when I started doing all this ten years ago now, I found something that any (and every) new proposal for a Wind Plant uses as almost a constant.

      At the start, I was incredulous about wind power. Like everyone, I believed the hype about it, and in those days, back in 2008, wind power was touted as being able to replace coal fired power.

      I was still just ‘feeling my way around’, and at that time, I actually thought that maybe, something like this was perhaps a reasonable idea.

      However, when I started to look, what I found was that wind power was variable at best, and could not be relied upon to deliver the constant and reliable power that coal fired power was actually delivering. I tentatively found out what Capacity Factor really did mean, and using my trade knowledge, I started to do the Maths. What I found was disconcerting to say the least, mainly because after reading so much ‘good news’ about wind power, here I was finding only bad news. Try as I might, I couldn’t find anybody saying the things I was now thinking, the things I had discovered, so it was a huge ‘leap of faith’ to actually write about it those first few times, because I was the only one. (that I could find at the time anyway) I even thought that I must be wrong, and for a couple of Months, I kept looking into it, and waiting to find the critical error I had made, all the while thinking that sooner or later, I’m going to be found out.

      But no, the more I looked, the more it confirmed what I had found. I went to as many wind plant sites as I could find, and with each new one, I again did the Maths, and each time, it confirmed my thoughts.

      After a while, one thing started to become obvious, and you don’t see these things up front, because those wind sites were all really cagy in the way they worded things. They would never say Capacity Factor at all, nor explain what it actually meant. It was always worded in the ‘number of homes provided’ etc and wording similar to that, never an actual yearly Output.

      However, every time I worked out the Maths, the Capacity Factor always came in at 38%. It was all theoretical because they never used the actual figures, as you can guess, because they were either not yet constructed, or had been in operation for a short time only, so year on year data was not available, and anyway, the sites were all done based on original planning right at the start and not really needed to be updated.

      All of them came in at that 38% figure, and I couldn’t figure out why that was used so specifically, for ALL of them, no matter where, and no matter what wind profile data there was for that particular site, they all came in at 38%.

      I used every term I could think of in a number of different search engines, but I could not find why they used that theoretical figure of 38%.

      Now, here we have this Coopers Gap Wind Plant that pat has mentioned here, and when you do the Maths here for this, it also comes in at (around, but very very close to) 38% for the Capacity Factor when you work it out. (and while pat quotes 1.5 million MWH, note at the site at this link, it quotes 1.51 Million which comes out to 38.01% for the CF)

      Incidentally, and with respect to the timeline, this Coopers Gap wind plant was first proposed in 2005, so it’s been 13 years to get to this stage now, giving an example of time factors involved in proposals like this, so any dates in the future for hoped for renewables, then they would need to be well into the process by now already, especially here in Queensland which has that 50% Renewables by 2030 Plan in place.

      I have written about Coopers Gap a few times now, and the earliest is at the Post at the following link, dated early April in 2011, seven years ago now.

      How Renewable Power Disguises Its Failure To Deliver

      Tony.

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      • #
        Bodge it an scarpa

        Am I missing something, Tony? 38% CF is significantly higher than the 30% figure that you regularly quote for Wind Power ! I am a little concerned about being ‘ found out’ myself, as I often quote your 30% figure when replying to pro Wind articles on Facebook.

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        • #
          Bodge it an scarpa

          Whilst on the subject, it got to 37c in my part of the Yarra Valley at 5.00pm today, and I would assume significantly hotter in SA .
          Haven’t found any reports of any major blackouts so far. If our side has any hope of winning this Climate Change/Renewable Energy war, we will require some assistance from a higher power. Trouble is, that God appears to be a Greenie, and is not co operating with our side!

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        • #

          Naah! Bodge it an scarpa (I just love that ‘handle’)

          The main thrust of my comment was that right from when I started doing all this, that figure of 38% was always quoted (and here I mean worked out by me from doing the Maths) as being what the wind plant ‘hopes’ to achieve, or in fact, cast iron (by them) figure on the power that the wind plant will deliver.
          Virtually every single one I went to came in at 38% Capacity Factor.

          Needless to say, that in reality, none of them ever achieved it, anywhere, but it still was always used as the ‘standard’ goto figure, and I couldn’t find out why that specific figure was used.

          As to your second comment, I seriously doubt that there will be blackouts anywhere. The AEMO will do absolutely everything that they possibly can to keep the power on, no matter what.

          That was shown graphically, when the coal fired Unit failed in Victoria and the huge Hydro plant failed as well.

          The lights still stayed on.

          It would take something absolutely catastrophic to cause any blackouts on a widespread scale.

          The blackout in South Australia might be used as an example, but what you need to realise about that is that SouthAus only consumes 6% or so of all Australia’s power, so any failure there, while seemingly small appears to be large because it is across a very small total. Those three huge consumers, NSW, Queensland and Victoria will have the capability to cover even large outages like those two I mentioned above, and to do it a moment’s notice no less.

          Even so, the only time you even hear about it is if it’s a failure of a (supposedly) unreliable coal fired Unit, as the Hydro failure was not even mentioned, and that was a far larger failure than the Unit at Loy Yang.

          Tony.

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      • #
        Bushkid

        Tony, that 50% ruinables by 2030 “target” of Palazchk’s here in Queensland is more than a little frightening.

        Does she actually understand what that would mean for industry, business (and ultimately for state income for that matter) and ordinary people in this state? If so, does she actually care? It’s very hard to believe that she and her well-paid cronies either understand or care. That the wholesale destruction of industry and business in the state may be deliberate is another proposition again.

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        • #

          Bushkid,

          have no fear, as that target will NEVER be achieved, and they won’t even get close to it.

          I was (almost) concerned as you are, but as soon as I heard that they were not going to close any coal fired plants by the target date, 2030, then I knew for sure and ABSOLUTE certain that they were not serious.

          This all singing all dancing Coopers Gap wind plant (and don’t you just love the blurb they always come out with ….. the BIGGEST in well, wherever or what hemisphere or State you reside in) will contribute around 2% of the power in Queensland, and even that is using their figures.

          That means coal fired power alone will come down from 115% to 113%, and they hope to lower ALL FOSSIL Fueled sources of power generation to 50%.

          I wrote that 16 page submission and the very last paragraph I wrote was this:

          If I might close on a personal note here, in 2030, I will be in my late 70’s. I most probably will have long forgotten this submission, as will perhaps everyone on the panel, and even everyone in Queensland. However, I can guarantee you this. In 2030 Queensland will not have 50% of its power sourced from Renewable power, no matter who says it is achievable.

          Tony.

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          • #
            Chad

            You know they will use installed “nameplate” capacity values to proclaim how much RE they have , and they will include generation capacity of Pumped hydro and batteries to get the numbers up.
            At worst it will end up with numerically 50% RE generation capacity (~~5GW ?). But still retaining 100% thermal generation capacity. (Much like Germany)
            …but of course the costs will still get blown out as they try to use the RE power whilst having to maintain the coal etc on standby !
            Ho, Hum !!

            20

            • #
              Graeme No.3

              Chad:

              We have the added problem that Dopey Dan and the Weatherdill are shutting down reliable generation. So far they have achieved higher prices and a few blackouts. Then the claim will be made (is being made) that we need lots of very expensive battery storage. When that combination fails the next step is to turn off the electricity to customers – they will call it conservation not blackouts.
              The other problem is that as more and more renewables are added and the cost goes up** then those who can will move off grid, leaving the mess to be paid for by less people, hence further cost jumps.

              **with every politician waffling about the future predicting lower prices its an odds-on certainty they will go up.

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          • #
            James in Melbourne

            Tony, can you tell us what best-case US CF for wind power is these days? Your 2011 article refers to 25%. Have they managed to improve it?

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            • #

              In the U.S. as of the end of year 2016, the Capacity Factor for all wind power is 31.3%, and that is using the data available at the U.S. EIA (Energy Information Administration) site for Capacity (Nameplate) and Net Generation for end year 2016.

              It has improved from that 2011 figure, and oddly, I was once picked up on that 2011 figure by someone in the U.S. when I mentioned it at another site, and he wrote that it was not 25% but closer to 35%. The odd thing was that he was adamant that 35% CF was still okay.

              China has only just this last week released its full data for electrical power generation for end of year 2017. The Capacity Factor for wind power in China is 21.3%.

              Tony

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              • #
                Chad

                There is a new website coming online to help analyse and understand NEM data

                In this first release, OpenNEM includes visualisations for the five NEM regions — South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, New South Wales (including the ACT) and Queensland, and the NEM as a whole.

                OpenNEM provides visibility for the past seven day of generation by region and by technology (and for the past three days in the widget).

                The OpenNEM website shows a page for each region including the energy, proportion of contribution and volume weighted price for each technology.

                The volume weighted price reflects the spot market value for each source of generation, i.e. the revenue that would be received by a ‘merchant project’ — a facility that always takes spot prices, without any hedging or contracting arrangements.

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  • #
    pat

    we must stop that manmade global warming:

    6 Feb: TheLocalFrance: France snow LATEST: Paris region hit by travel chaos on roads and rail
    Snowfall and freezing temperatures led to travel chaos around France on Tuesday evening and caused a record number of traffic jams in the Paris region. Train services were also badly hit. Here are all the latest updates.

    • Paris region sees record number of traffic jams on Tuesday evening
    • TGV trains hit by delays across the country due to snow
    • Drivers warned to stay off roads in Paris region until Wednesday midday
    • All bus services stopped in the capital as roads freeze over
    • Lorries banned from driving on main roads around Paris region due to weather conditions
    • Eiffel Tower in Paris closes to the public due to the “meteorological conditions”
    • Huge swathes of northern France remains on alert for snow and ice

    At around 1pm authorities in the greater Paris region of Île-de-France raised the level of their “snow and ice plan” to “three” which meant HGVs were not allowed to circulate on the region’s main arteries. Trucks either have to accept detours or stay off the road.
    By Tuesday afternoon temperatures had dropped below zero in the Paris region…

    By Tuesday evening as workers headed home traffic jams began to clog the main arteries around the French capital. They had reached a record combined length of 739 km by 7.30pm…
    In Paris where snow was falling gently throughout Tuesday, the Eiffel Tower announced just before 1pm that it was closing to the public due to the weather conditions…

    In all, some 32 departments in France remained on alert on Tuesday afternoon for snow and ice (see map below)…
    https://www.thelocal.fr/20180206/snow-and-ice-causes-travel-disruption-around-france

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  • #
    pat

    6 Feb: UK Sun: CANA-BELIEVE IT UK weather – Britain’s month-long big freeze due to -11C Polar air sweeping in from CANADA
    Scotland is being blasted by Arctic and Polar winds from Canada and Norway as temperatures continue to plunge
    The west of Scotland has felt the chill effects of the Canadian winter, where temperatures have plunged to -32C…
    The east of the country has been at the receiving end of freezing winds sweeping down from Northern Norway, where temperatures dipped to -21C on Sunday night…
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5516860/uk-weather-britain-freeze-polar-air-canada/

    7 Feb: Daily Mail: ‘It’s even cold in sunny Dorset’: Britain shivers in -11C temperatures as snow sweeps in as Met Office warns it could stay freezing for rest of the month
    By Alex Matthews and Rory Tingle
    Two yellow severe weather warnings for snow and ice are in force today, with one covering Wales, northern England and Midlothian until 3pm as a spell of sleet and snow moves south-eastwards.
    A further yellow snow and ice warning is in place until 10am on Wednesday as sleet, snow and hail showers, some heavy, hit western areas.
    The Met Office has updated another warning of snow and ice in effect from 3pm on Tuesday until 9.30am on Wednesday for parts of eastern England.
    Police forces across the country warned of treacherous conditions on the roads during the early rush hour after temperatures plummeted yesterday night…

    Met Office forecaster Alex Burkill: ‘Really much of February and perhaps even into March it is going to stay on the cold side, so temperatures generally below average, with further frosts and also the risk of rain, sleet and snow as well.’…
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5356067/Freezing-Norse-winds-UK-SNOW-ICE-alert.html

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  • #
    pat

    5 Feb: NBC: Record-breaking cold? PyeongChang braces for frigid weather ahead of Olympics
    by Miguel Almaguer
    PYEONGCHANG, South Korea — The only thing more extreme than the Olympic sports is the weather here…
    While the athletes are prepared for the bone-chilling temperatures, worries about spectators catching hypothermia or staying home have been raised.
    “The athletes are pretty well insulated for the hypothermia but, for somebody out here watching the sports, it can occur as quickly as 45 minutes,” said Dr. Dave Weinstein, a physician with Team USA who specializes in orthopedic surgery…

    Lee Hee-beom, president of the PyeongChang Organizing Committee for the 2018 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games, said the committee has a contingency plan in case spectators decide to stay home.
    “We are also preparing for that case. We will sell 100 percent of our tickets, and also have plan B for the no shows,” he said…

    Volunteers will be handing out blankets and beanies to ensure all who watch are properly dressed. Wind shields and heat lamps have also been installed…

    Thousands will also gather in the mountains at seven open-air venues, where temperatures can plummet to less than 10 degrees…
    Gusts from Siberia keep the air extremely cold and dry. If the winds stay to the east, there could be flash snowfalls in the mountains. Frigid winds are expected to make the cold even more intense…

    During Friday’s opening ceremony, Team USA athletes will be fitted with special battery-powered heated jackets. An American Flag stitched into the interior of the jacket will heat up to keep athletes warm as they walk through the ceremony.
    But spectators, who are just sitting still, could be more susceptible to the cold…
    https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/winter-olympics-2018/record-breaking-cold-pyeongchang-braces-frigid-weather-ahead-olympics-n844836

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    • #
      pat

      cognitive dissonance combined with wilful deception:

      6 Feb: Yale Climate Connections: How climate change is endangering the Winter Olympics
      Warmer temperatures and declining snow are making it tougher to host the games.
      By Bruce Lieberman
      In mid-January, just three weeks before the opening this week of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, the women’s World Cup speed races in the Austrian Alps were struggling to get underway. Heavy rain and mild temperatures had degraded snow on the Karnten-Franz Klammer course, making conditions unsafe…
      It’s no surprise for climate researchers that training for the Winter Olympics, and the games themselves, have run into trouble. For sports contests that rely on snow and ice, a warmer global climate is no friend.

      The same week in January that Women’s Cup races stalled, the University of Waterloo in Ontario, Canada, released a study (LINK) concluding that climate change is increasingly threatening the viability of the Winter Olympics, held once every four years…
      “The world of winter sports is changing as the global climate continues to warm and elite winter athletes are witnessing the impacts of climate change at competition and summer training locations,” said Daniel Scott, a professor of geography and environmental management at Waterloo, in a university statement…

      The study released January 11 was actually an update to one published four years ago, which predicted (correctly) that weather and snow conditions would be a challenge at the 2014 Winter Olympics at Sochi, Russia…

      ***(LOL) One bright note: The two cities added for the updated study – Pyeongchang in South Korea, the host of this year’s games, and Beijing, the host of the games in 2022 – are expected to remain cold even under high-emission scenarios.

      At this year’s games, on February 7 and 8, scientists and educators are to meet (LINK) for the first PyeongChang Forum on the Earth and its Citizens to discuss climate change and other environmental topics…
      https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2018/02/climate-change-threatens-winter-olympics/

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  • #
    pat

    Smart Dana says:

    6 Feb: Guardian: Humans need to become smarter thinkers to beat climate denial
    A new paper shows that climate myths consistently fail critical thinking tests
    by Dana Nuccitelli
    John Cook, Peter Ellerton, and David Kinkead have just published a paper (LINK) in Environmental Research Letters in which they examined 42 common climate myths and found that every single one demonstrates fallacious reasoning…

    Climate denial suffers badly from a lack of critical thinking, which has spread all the way to the White House. Teaching people to think critically can help prevent it from spreading even further.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/feb/06/humans-need-to-become-smarter-thinkers-to-beat-climate-denial

    6 Feb: Daily Camera: CU Boulder a member of new University Climate Change Coalition
    By Elizabeth Hernandez
    The University Climate Change Coalition bands together 13 campuses and university systems from the United States, Canada and Mexico to work with their respective communities conquering climate-related challenges…
    Chancellor Phil DiStefano is formally announcing CU’s participation in the coalition today during a Higher Education Climate Leadership summit in Arizona…

    In 2018, CU will host a climate change summit along with every participating campus, featuring local businesses, elected officials and stakeholders…

    The coalition plans to spearhead local and national action in areas such as climate modeling, energy storage systems, next-generation solar cells, energy-efficiency technologies, smart grids, transportation sector technologies, regulation and policy solutions and more, CU said…

    Additional participating universities include:
    • Arizona State University
    • California Institute of Technology
    • Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey
    • Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
    • Ohio State University
    • State University of New York system
    • University of British Columbia
    • University of California system
    • University of Maryland, College Park
    • University of New Mexico
    • University of Toronto
    • University of Washington.

    ***In 2015, the U.S.-based universities of the coalition accounted for nearly a quarter of environmental research done by all U.S. institutions, according to data collected by the National Science Foundation.
    http://www.dailycamera.com/cu-news/ci_31645269/university-climate-change-coalition-colorado

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