JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 8.4 out of 10 based on 18 ratings

Tiny Url for this post: http://tinyurl.com/y75ptlwg

218 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Graeme No.3

    Another Unthreaded. Must be the Global Warming scam unravelling.

    80

  • #
    TdeF

    On the 5 hours of hell in Melbourne. Yes, the temperature did hit 41 at around 1.30PM. For 5 hours. So?

    What would be a typical warm day for weeks in Adelaide or Perth was half a terrifying thing today, thanks to the BOM. I met a restarateur who wondered how to cope through the heat at night with a party of 200 and who was totally unaware of the predicted cool change at 6.30pm. He was amazed that he did not know. The press was full of the imminent disaster. Events were cancelled across the state. People were worried.

    So the BOM has made half a hot day a terrifying occurrence and omitted to say it would happen after lunch and be over at 6.30PM, long before the sun set. The 20C drop in temperature was as predictable as the temperature itself, but omitted. This sensationalizing of the weather news has to stop. Half a hot day is now terrifying. Cyclones are upgraded for effect without explanation. Cool, windy summers are pictured as Armageddon.

    This is happening with all our news. The President of the US is trashed by actors, singers and artists and this is reported. The language is appalling. The weather is exaggerated. A common winter storm is a ‘bomb’. Everything has Climate Change DNA?

    Could our public service BOM please just give us the facts, the whole facts and in a professional manner and not feed the Chicken Littles of the teenage press? We pay for the facts, not the hype. Facts should be balanced.

    Besides, who ever heard of half a single hot day before? Why not tell the whole truth? There was a brush fire at Carrum Downs though. That should keep Chief Climate Commissioner Flannery happy. His Angry Summer lives and Gaia hates natural coal.

    531

    • #
      TdeF

      Yes and frozen sharks washed up on beaches in New England. Iguanas falling out of trees in Florida. All just the weather apparently but inevitably proof of Global Warming caused by Climate Change caused by Carbon Dioxide. Why didn’t we listen to real scientists like Al Gore and Bill Nye and roo boy Tim Flannery? Why didn’t we listen?

      240

      • #
        Lionell Griffith

        Why don’t we listen?

        Because the only reliable prediction about their predictions is that they will make predictions.

        See the fable of The Boy who cried Wolf for instructive detail.

        160

      • #
        AndyG55

        “Yes and frozen sharks washed up on beaches in New England”

        Hey?

        I thought the oceans were super warm, even boiling !!

        181

        • #

          AndyG55. My sarc is stuck on by will try. The sharks came up out of the warm water as shown by the positive anomaly on the map below. So this is proof that they have been extreme warm frozen by undersea back radiation not cold frozen as they may have been back in the perfectly and perpetually average past. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

          70

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          They could have been frozen by low-temperature rigor mortise?

          80

          • #
            ROM

            .

            Your ABC , not mine, with another batch of fake news and / or a remarkable display of ignorance or was that just plain deliberate misinformation.

            updated 27 minutes ago [ posted 13.23 Sun 7th]

            Winds of more than 144 kilometres per hour swirled New Hampshire’s Mount Washington, the north-east’s highest peak, at a temperature of -38 degrees Celsius and a wind chill of -69C.

            It tied for second place with Armstrong, Ontario, as the coldest spot in the world.

            Population= Zilch

            Altitude = 1017 metres.

            —————–

            Oymyakon,

            Sakha Republic, Russia

            Sunday 12:00 pm
            Partly Cloudy

            [ minus ] – 44C

            Altitude approx 750 metres

            Population of Oymyakon is 500 people!

            Population of Mt Washington USA is ?????

            ——————-

            Yakutsk,

            Sakha Republic, Russia

            Sunday 11:00 am
            Fog

            [ minus ] -37C

            Population; 270, 000 [ 2010 census ]

            70

      • #
        William

        What I find amusing is that when global temperatures were, quite naturally, rising – if you pointed to a cold spell the alarmists would sneer that it is just weather and bang on as if you had no idea what climate is. Since temperatures stopped rising, now when there is a cold spell it is not weather, it is proof, they argue, of AGW and is now actually climate!

        It seems that the alarmist logic system allows the parishioners of the church of climatology to argue that black is white – and they do so with a complete lack of self-awareness.

        110

    • #
      Another Ian

      Over Christmas I was talking to a bloke in the building trade on the effect of modern forecasting on his business.

      In older times he had what BOM forecast was available and his early morning look out the window on which to base whether he mobilised his crew for the day.

      Now he has 5 weather apps (which rarely agree) on which to make his first round of calls at around 5 am. And which disagreement often results in another round or two of calls somewhat later.. And often then the decision hold off work for the day.

      Which has by then cost him the office time and his crew of subbies the opportunity of other jobs for the day – so none are happy.

      He’s about to go back to looking out the window as the basis for the day’s decision.

      200

    • #
      OriginalSteve

      The powers that be seem to have decided people are truly gullible enough to swallow the emotive hype about the weather and are demonstrating that by people cancelling events etc.

      This is the “smartphone effect” ( tunnel vision ) whereby the punters are drip fed one bit of propaganda at a time, and as it drips from their smartphones, it must be “right”, right?

      150

      • #
        Yonniestone

        There will always be people that either take or follow the initiative in life, with the amount of fatalistic apathy I see in the public I’m not surprised to see a majority of plebs automatically accepting state sanctioned information as gospel.

        ‘Man watches his history on the screen with apathy and an occasional passing flicker of horror or indignation.’ Conor Cruise O’Brien.

        50

      • #
        Manfred

        One supposes that had one spent a significant wedge of wonga to own an oxymoronically named “smart” phone, one would be heavily invested in its output?
        I don’t own one, visit Farcebook or twootle on Twatter. Deo gratias. This inevitably means I am, or shortly may be labelled as “untrustworthy.”

        On a daily basis, heading for the hills (or what passes for them at your place) sounds an increasingly ideal course of action.

        A futuristic vision of Big Brother out of control? No, it’s already getting underway in China, where the government is developing the Social Credit System (SCS) to rate the trustworthiness of its 1.3 billion citizens. The Chinese government is pitching the system as a desirable way to measure and enhance “trust” nationwide and to build a culture of “sincerity”. As the policy states, “It will forge a public opinion environment where keeping trust is glorious. It will strengthen sincerity in government affairs, commercial sincerity, social sincerity and the construction of judicial credibility.”
        Big data meets Big Brother as China moves to rate its citizens

        30

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          There is a Netflix series called “Black Mirror” which is black comedy take down of modern society.

          One episode shows a woman trying to get her social media status up high enough to be able to move into a new housing suburb where only the popular people can live….

          I dont have any social media presence… a modern “heretic” according to the “gospel” of facebook…. and proud of it….

          40

          • #
            Manfred

            Exactly OriginalSteve.
            You (and I) are potential unintended consequences.
            It may quite suddenly become very ‘cool’ to be as anonymous as possible and avoid all “required” connexions with social media, or run some kind of untraceable proxy through Tor or some- such. That’s the way the next generation may see it.
            It’ll be worth living to see in order to die laughing.

            00

    • #
      Yonniestone

      TdeF according to BOM observations when the change came through we had a drop of ~10 C between 5:30pm to 6:00pm, why is the hype always about temperature spikes going up not down?

      http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV60801/IDV60801.94852.shtml

      70

      • #
        Manfred

        I assume you omitted the /rhet tag YS?
        Anything that pumps the narrative is useful propaganda. If ‘they’ can’t pump the narrative where else do they go and with what?
        They’ve got themselves into such a ideologically constrained corner there is simply no alternative to the meme, oh, except possibly simply falling on their sword. But the bushido code is not the philosophy of these presstitutes.

        10

    • #
      PeterS

      It doesn’t matter if it’s extreme hot or extreme cold as in some part of the US. It’s all the fault of global warming. Heard that on one of the US mainstream TV shows so it must be true – NOT! Let’s be honest – all thinking people know for a fact that mankind has been experiencing extremes of temperature for centuries. We also know the MSM and much of the scientific community (either by their direct support for global warming hoax or by their silence) are perpetrating the biggest scam in mankind’s history. So just ignore their doomsday messages and let them carry on as typical doomsday messengers when eventually they will have egg on their faces (and hopefully many of their leaders behind bars).

      90

    • #
      Asp

      We must have had half hot days before. Where did to saying: “It ain’t half hot, eh?” come from?

      90

    • #
      sophocles

      TdeF complains:

      A common winter storm is a `bomb.’

      The term ‘bomb,’ while unofficial, is actually well established in meteorological circles and has a specific meaning, namely the rapid drop in pressure in a low pressure system when its central pressure falls 24 millibars* in 24 hours (or less).

      Officially, the process is known as explosive cyclogenesis. Hence, weather bomb. It’s behind the formation of cyclonic storms. The linked article says:

      Cyclogenesis is initiated by a disturbance occurring along a stationary or very slow-moving front between cold and warm air. This disturbance distorts the front into the wavelike configuration.

      Now, think about a shock wave arriving from the top of the atmosphere from a magnetic storm caused by the arrival of a Solar CME … from storm to Cat 1 in one easy step … and Cat 1 to Cat3 or Cat 5 in a second step should there be a second solar flare (see The Sun and Storms So start challenging everyone who claims CO2/CAGW is causing extreme weather in the form of cyclones. Where’s the required `disturbance?’

      CO2? No mechanism. Global Warming? Not needed. Now you have the mechanism.

      Of course, it’s a wonderful term for the MSM to latch onto and abuse.

      *(In the wonderful world of metric 1mbar = 1 hectopascal. Conversion is up to you folks … ;-) )

      10

  • #
    Eddie

    Getting creative with data. Not to mention wind.

    This handy little graphic may be more mesmerising than informative but aren’t the colours and motion strangely soothing?

    Near real-time updated every few hours apparently.

    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=114.00,-33.56,273/loc=115.586,-30.992

    70

    • #
      yarpos

      Happily (unless you are in the fire service) for SA they had some wind to go with their 40C, and happily it happened on a holiday period weekend. So the can gets kicked down the road a bit more, and the pollies continue to pray for a mild summer.

      70

    • #
      tom0mason

      Meanwhile Eddie on the other side of the globe the winds are far more interesting!

      https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=323.73,46.73,741/loc=115.586,-30.992

      20

      • #
        Eddie

        Indeed Tom,winds appear to be faster in the winter hemisphere and if you click on that subtle ‘earth’ in the bottom left corner a whole new world of possibilities opens up for adding Temperature, dust, Sulphates,etc., etc.

        Choosing a height of 10 (in hPa)shows a much more global uniformity of winds high in the atmosphere but with a huge anomally centred just off Western Canada presently.

        Have fun with the controls.

        20

      • #

        Meanwhile Eddie on the other side of the globe the winds are far more interesting!

        Eddie Jan 7,18:7:28pm

        Indeed Tom,winds appear to be faster in the winter hemisphere and if you click on that subtle ‘earth’ in the bottom left corner a whole new world of possibilities opens up for adding Temperature, dust, Sulphates,etc., etc.

        NORAD uses the ‘nullschool.net’ projections to try to figure out ‘where that puppy may have gone!
        Last month while tracking Santa; a caller asked;
        Q: Has this winter has been exceptionally cold?
        A: Oh yes, very!
        Q: How do you know?
        A: Da Indians been gathering firewood like mad!!

        30

        • #
          Eddie

          I used flightradar24 to track Santa. Was trying to identify a noisy helicopter on Xmas Eve & a sleigh shot across the screen. It was there on review but has gone outside the 14 day review window for Basdic users now.

          00

    • #
      el gordo

      Here we see clearly what is happening, but don’t expect BoM to say we have discovered an anomaly.

      http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf

      20

    • #
      Manfred

      According to Farcebook where clicking on the ‘EathWindMap‘ takes one … one reads the following …

      This animation shows a full, one year time lapse animation of surface winds from Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2018, over the Western Hemisphere. The data come from NWS’s GFS numerical weather model (www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=GFS).

      Sigh +++.

      10

  • #
    Rereke Whakaaro

    Whether the weather is cold,
    Or whether the weather is hot,
    Wethers weather the weather,
    Whatever the weather,
    Whether they like it or not.

    [A New Zealand version of an Olde Engleish kinder-rhyme]

    The Shorter Oxford Dictionary defines wether as, “a castrated ram”, even though Microsoft does not approve.

    Engleish is, or was, the native language of the Engles, a Norse tribe that settled in what is now northern England [or Engle-land].

    130

    • #
      robert rosicka

      What is it with you kiwis and your sheep ?

      40

      • #
        Ted O'Brien.

        The sheep eat well.

        50

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Have you every tried sheering a kangaroo? Or a white-pointer, for that matter.

        Choose your target. That’s the story.

        60

        • #
          MudCrab

          What’s wrong with sheering a kangaroo?

          After all, you people do want to wear your jumpers…

          (cough)

          60

          • #
            sophocles

            Yeah, but roos are not woolly. Can’t keep you warm.

            Taste pretty good though.

            You could always give it a go, MudCrab, with a big red. I’d be interested in seeing the video :-)

            00

        • #
          ROM

          Or fleecing a Kiwi ?

          30

          • #
            Ted O'Brien.

            Fleecing a Kiwi?

            When wool was booming thirty years ago we built our sheep numbers up to 180 million, all needing to be shorn every year. If the Kiwis hadn’t come across and defleeced them for us we would never have got the job done.

            There is no good reason why wool should not still be booming. The unique physical characteristics that made wool so readily marketable thirty years ago are still the same unique physical characteristics, even more marketable today than they were then.

            Our trouble is that the Australian government, with our own reps the greater villains, citing the Law of Supply and Demand, and demonstrating that they had not the slightest understanding of either Supply or Demand, bankrupted the entire world trade in wool. Whitlam’s education system at work!

            Only now, thirty years on, is wool at last staggering back to its feet. It will still face opposition from educated fools forecasting the next bust.

            40

            • #

              Only now, thirty years on, is wool at last staggering back to its feet. It will still face opposition from educated fools forecasting the next bust.

              Animal fleece (hair), has been refined over the ages to provide specific function. Isolation of needed body sensible heat from the surrounding environment. Earthling concept of temperature is trivial when compared to wet.
              All the best!-will-

              10

        • #
          OriginalSteve

          Youd need a very low number comb to do a shark…assume you could stop it wriggling long enough….

          60

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            White pointers are ticklish?

            10

          • #

            Youd need a very low number comb to do a shark…assume you could stop it wriggling long enough….

            Shark recently (10,000 yr ago), replaced external ‘fleece’ with internal ‘blubber’ (thanks whale guys)! Now shark-skin, or eel-skin wallets difficult to fabricate! Tungsten-carbide sewing machine needles, et cetera! :-)

            10

    • #
      Eddie

      Well said. I saw the rhyme just assuming it to be Ruaraidh’s till tripping on the fourth line, which seems unnecessary to the timbre unless I’ve misread it.(not being familiar with the original).

      30

  • #
    Another Ian

    Definitions

    The article looks at various definitions and in the comments there is this

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/05/argentinian-geoscientist-faces-criminal-charges-for-not-committing-scientific-fraud-in-glacier-survey/#comment-2710047


    Gerald Machnee
    January 5, 2018 at 10:50 am

    New definition: If it is melting it is a glacier. If it is increasing in size it must be your imagination.”

    40

  • #
    Peter C

    High Clouds Warm, Low Clouds Cool?

    I was reminded again of this statement recently because I noticed a article in a copy of (un)Scientific American on my newsagents shelf. The author (a climate scientist, who’s name I forgot) maintained that clouds are difficult for climate scientists because of opposing effects. According to her article, high clouds warm and low clouds cool (the Earth).
    No references or measurements were given .
    I did an internet search and found the following explanation on the NASA website.
    Again, no references or measurements are given.

    High Clouds
    The high, thin cirrus clouds in the Earth’s atmosphere act in a way similar to clear air because they are highly transparent to shortwave radiation (their cloud albedo forcing is small), but they readily absorb the outgoing longwave radiation. Like clear air, cirrus clouds absorb the Earth’s radiation and then emit longwave, infrared radiation both out to space and back to the Earth’s surface. Because cirrus clouds are high, and therefore cold, the energy radiated to outer space is lower than it would be without the cloud (the cloud greenhouse forcing is large). The portion of the radiation thus trapped and sent back to the Earth’s surface adds to the shortwave energy from the sun and the longwave energy from the air already reaching the surface. The additional energy causes a warming of the surface and atmosphere. The overall effect of the high thin cirrus clouds then is to enhance atmospheric greenhouse warming.

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Clouds/

    The last few days give me an opportunity to test the assertion against observations. Thursday in Melbourne was day of light winds with high thin cirrus clouds largely covering the sky. The clouds were so thin that the direct sunlight felt hot and strong shadows were cast on the ground. There were no low level cumulus. Measurements were taken between 2pm and 3.30pm.

    As a measure of insolation I took temperature measurements from the macadam road surface in the street outside my house using an infrared thermometer. The temperature was about 55-59C on the sunny road . Measurements of the clouds themselves gave -4C to -12C.
    On the next day, Friday, the sky was almost perfectly clear, with no clouds at all. Again the winds were light.
    Repeating my measurements of the day before I measured 67C on the hot sunlight road surface. Clear sky temperature was -14C.

    As a further check I took the maximum and minimum temperatures from the BOM station at Essendon Airport.
    Thursday/ Fri 04/05 Jan 2018
    High thin cirrus clouds. Max 23.9 Min 13.5
    Friday/Sat 05/06 Jan 2018
    Clear sky. Max 29.3 Min 17.6

    The results of my investigation support the contention that High Clouds help keep the earth cool, not warm it. How does NASA get it so wrong?

    113

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      A good read. The article you are commenting on is very well presented and laid out but as you point out, it fails scientifically.

      Whenever I see the term “forcing” it tells me that the author is a member of the Climate Change Religion and that “science” quoted is “measurement free” and descriptive license has been used.

      For example, the article mentions the Earth’s energy budget but fails absolutely to scratch the surface of this extraordinarily complex system.

      They also mention back radiation while trying to scratch around looking for the mechanism that causes our atmosphere to “have a temperature”.

      I’m reluctant to try and tell them the answers because the media has a thousand articles like this one that prove I’m wrong.

      KK

      61

    • #
      Kinky Keith

      A good read. The article you are commenting on is very well presented and laid out but as you point out, it fails scientifically.

      Whenever I see the term “forcing” it tells me that the author is a member of the Climate Change Religion and that “science” quoted is “measurement free” and descriptive license has been used.

      For example, the article mentions the Earth’s energy budget but fails absolutely to scratch the surface of this extraordinarily complex system.

      They also mention back radiation while trying to scratch around looking for the mechanism that causes our atmosphere to “have a temperature”.

      I’m reluctant to try and tell them the answers because the media has a thousand articles like this one that prove I’m wrong.

      KK

      32

    • #
      RickWill

      Taken from your NASA reference:

      Like clear air, cirrus clouds absorb the Earth’s radiation and then emit longwave, infrared radiation both out to space and back to the Earth’s surface.

      As soon as you see a statement where energy is being transferred via EMR from a low temperature region to a high temperature region you know anything related is nonsense. NASA completely lose credibility by allowing such nonsense to be hosted under their name.

      142

      • #
        Peter C

        Rick,

        You have a chance to take independent measurements from your solar cell array.

        Could you check and report the power output under a clear sky and compare with the output with high cirrus clouds. How much solar shielding do high cirrus cause. It will doubtless vary with the thickness of the clouds, but my road surface measurements indicate that it was substantial, even though there was enough sunlight to throw strong shadows.

        Note that the circumstances which occurred on the 4th and 5th Jan were rather exceptional because the conditions persisted all day. That was quite uncommon, in my experience.

        However your solar cells will give an instantaneous response to cirrus clouds passing over. I would be interested in that.

        20

        • #

          Peter C January 7, 2018 at 6:55 pm

          Rick, You have a chance to take independent measurements from your solar cell array. Could you check and report the power output under a clear sky and compare with the output with high cirrus clouds. How much solar shielding do high cirrus cause.

          Troublesome questions from troublesome analysis.Exo-atmospheric sw (visable) solar irradiance originates from the solid angle of Sun’s photosphere with angular dimension (from Earth of 10 Milli-radian), measurable 0.6 degree diameter. For a solid angle of (68/1,000,000 steradian). Once that solar power is intercepted by Earth’s atmospheric mass all is mie scattered in all 4Pi solid angle directions, but not uniformly.
          What some <1 micron 2 steradion PV panel may convert to electrical power storage (Watt-seconds, or Joules) is best left to any high-schooler, that wants to get laid; never some academic fool!
          All the best!-will-

          00

        • #
          RickWill

          PeterC
          Your road surface measurements are likely better than anything the solar panels will produce. The panels respond to wavelengths in the visible band while the black road surface is more likely to respond to the full EMR spectrum.

          The solar panels also respond well to light dispersed by clouds. When fluffy cumulus clouds pass over, sufficient to eliminate shadows, the panels will still produce about 40% of the power that they produce in cloudless days. There is also a temperature affect on efficiency so if the cloud was keeping them cooler then they will have higher efficiency. Although I have doubts that any sort of cloud would produce higher output than no cloud. The highest output occurs when the panel transitions from being shaded to getting full exposure as it cools when shaded so works at higher efficiency until it heats up.

          Your road surface is comparable to all other surface absorbers so if it is hotter without cloud than with then you could expect all passive surfaces to respond similarly.

          I found this paper that discusses UV enhancement through cloudiness. Figure 3 gives some clue to the enhancement with cloud. Note that the overall average is lower than what it would be with clear sky but there are times when the UV is higher than it is with clear sky.
          http://repositorio.uchile.cl/bitstream/handle/2250/126127/Lovengreen_Charlotte.pdf?sequence=1

          In my own experience on hot days I have always appreciated any sort of cloud cover over clear sky. I have never looked up at thin cirrus cloud and thought to myself that it will be stinker.

          One observation my wife made on Sunday after the hot Saturday in Melbourne was that the cloud that moved in with the cool air in the evening actually reduced the rate of cooling over night compared with what it would have been if it was clear sky. The roof at 25C radiating to cloud at -10C obviously does not lose heat as fast as the same roof radiating to space at -270C.

          This topic came up as I was walking home from my son’s place with an IR thermometer taking measurements of road and path surfaces. He had installed some insulating batts and I used the thermometer to assess the differences where the batts had been installed. The lower floor of his house did not get above 22C despite the outside air reaching the thirties but only for a few hours.

          20

          • #

            PeterC, Your road surface measurements are likely better than anything the solar panels will produce. The panels respond to wavelengths in the visible band while the black road surface is more likely to respond to the full EMR spectrum.

            Rick Will Jan8, 18: 2:05 pm, What total deliberate distraction from anything using the scientific method. Repeatable measurement else fantasy Bu*l Sh*t. All you have is religious fantasy!
            Rick Will,
            Please demonstrate the accumulation of solar power to chemical battery charge (EV). Easy to do! Please demonstrate accumulation of surface sensible heat (increased surface temperature) from spontaneous EMR emanations from lower temperature ‘atmosphere’. Hard\ Cannot be done! Why oh why join the scammers?

            00

    • #
      Peter C

      So 3 red thumbs to my original comment #6.

      What I would like from the red thumbers is a reference to any observations or measurements which actually give support to the NASA science which thinks that high clouds Warm the Earth!

      21

    • #
      sophocles

      Nice observation, Peter C.
      Nice evidential support, too.
      See how repeatable (if the opportunity presents again) it is.

      00

  • #
    Doubtingdave

    OR MAYBE YOU COULD BE PEOPLE THAT BELIEVE in CRITICAL Thinking when it suits you , AND IGNORE YOUR PRINCIBLES WHEN YOU DON’T

    40

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Hello?

      Anybody home?

      50

      • #

        Sam , maybe the flaviun dynasty invented Christianity in the first century to pasify the jews ,maybe Constantine used that religion to pasify all the province’s of Rome , and created a feudal system that lasted a thousand years and maybe we have a Nwo that want to create a global feudal system now

        20

        • #
          Peter C

          pacify?

          Never heard of the flaviun dynasty. Were they important in early christian history? How did they invent Christianity?

          10

          • #
            Graeme No.3

            The Flavian dynasty was founded by Titus Flavius Vespanianus who became emperor in AD69 (the Year of the 3 Emperors).

            “Vespasian provided practical leadership and a return to stable government – accomplishments which, when combined with his other achievements, make his emperorship particularly notable within the history ….”

            I think I would not be alone in wishing he was available for Australia, but then he wouldn’t be eligible for Parliament.

            30

  • #
    spangled drongo

    Last Wednesday was the highest tide of the year and Moreton Bay sea levels were around 6 inches [15 cm] lower than they were 70 years ago.

    Why don’t scientists comment on this fact?

    191

  • #
  • #
    Doubtingdave

    DON’T YOU SEE THAT WE ARE FACING A NEW FEUDAL SYSTEM BACED ON A NEW RELIGOIN , WHAT IS THE Difference between the councils of Nicea and the councils at Paris
    .

    81

    • #
      • #
      • #
        PeterS

        Actually it’s 1693 and 1231. There were two of them – one in the year 325 and the other in 787. As for AGW becoming a new feudal system, well that is exactly what could happen once the followers of that new false religion start killing people for not joining. Some of them have already remarked that’s what should happen to skeptics and the like who refuse to agree with the worldview that AGW is real. Time will tell if it becomes reality.

        100

        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Ah yes. 2018. You’re correct. hence the ±. Thanks.

          But was year 0 year 0?

          10

          • #
            PeterS

            There was no year 0 (just like there is no day 0 in each month – all months begin with day 1) and even if there was it makes no difference since the dates are all AD. BTW that’s the reason why the start if the 21st century is 2001, not 2000 as most people think.

            10

            • #

              There was no year 0 (just like there is no day 0 in each month – all months begin with day 1) and even if there was it makes no difference since the dates are all AD.

              The concept of Zero must be an asymptote never a location on any scale! In integer ‘counting’ as taught to ‘infants’ zero is a demarcation separating the (negative backcounting)! If Momma decides not to humanly destroy such infant; perhaps ‘learning’\'understanding’ may continue!
              Archimedes in 271 BC incontrovertibly demonstrated that Earth’s atmosphere exhibits no ‘weight’!
              Today every University professor truly professes that Earth’s atmosphere has ‘weight’ equal to atmospheric mass times the accelerative force of the rest of Earth mass! Not even the ancient Phoenicians were that clueless!

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      I somebody points a sharp object at my torso, I will tend to agree with them, on any point they wish to make.

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      el gordo

      No need to shout Dave, its a only a small shed.

      The Normans introduced Britain to the Feudal system as a way to help maintain a standing army in a drawn out conflict.

      Neo-Feudalism doesn’t work in the modern era, but I acknowledge that in a world of robotics and mass unemployment a village lifestyle might be attractive.

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    Another Ian

    “Apparently, asking questions in class is a “masculine” norm, and is therefore oppressive to female students. ”

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2018/01/its-feminist-sc.html#comments

    And comments

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      Dennis

      Full story at Michael Smith News …

      “The ludicrous and dangerous morass into which obsequious and PC-addled senior officers have led the British Army is a source of real concern to every citizen of the nation.

      In the face of external threats and massive budget constraints, the latest very public direction from the Army is to drop the use of “sir” – or indeed “ma’m” when answering the telephone, for fear of giving some offence to the person at the far end. This comes alongside notices not to use language like “mankind”, “chaps” or “gentleman’s agreement” from the Joint Equality Diversity and Inclusion unit, nicknamed the “Jedi”.

      It is merely the most obvious manifestation of a lack of leadership that time and effort are given to such trivia in the face of crisis.”

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        OriginalSteve

        Maybe they can throw flowers at the invading hordes and also offer them a massage and pedicures to calm them down?

        Sure that will work? Or better still, inform the invading hordes their invasion is unsafe… that should upset the OH&S guys, they will then confiscate all the tanks and guns until they have done all the safety checks…..in triplicate….

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          Another Ian

          OS

          Re “Maybe they can throw flowers at the invading hordes”

          From the chapter “Welcome” in John Steinbeck’s “Once there was a war” on Italians greeting US and British troops.

          “A third method of showing enthusiasm at being conquered is to throw any fruit or vegetable which happens to be in season”

          “One of the most ridiculous and most dangerous occupations, however, was the investment and capture of the island of Ischia. There the people, casting about for some vegetable or floral tribute, found that the most prominent and showy flower of the season was the pink amaryllis. This is not a pleasant flower at the best, but in the hands of an enthusiastic Italian crowd it can be almost a lethal weapon”

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      I would agree with that. The males of my acquaintance usually ask questions.

      Ir is the females of my acquaintance, who tend to express their own opinions, often quite strongly.

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      • #

        The males of my acquaintance usually ask questions. It is the females of my acquaintance, who tend to express their own opinions, often quite strongly.

        Your observations match mine! Mamma’s reward is never revenge but payback! After tickling grandsprout tummy for a while; sniffs then hands it back to daughter, commenting ‘it’s wet’!!
        All the best!-will-

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    • #
      el gordo

      That is the least of your worries, we are not facing a new feudal system.

      If you had to eliminate one of the three tiers of government (Federal, State and Council) which one would you choose?

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        yarpos

        I wouldnt, but I would change their roles to something more like the Swiss system

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        • #
          el gordo

          Yeah, of particular interest is the federal and cantonal referendums held four times a year.

          A form of direct democracy and after the same sex marriage referendum I think the Australian electorate is ready, on the proviso its restricted to one referendum a year.

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      • #

        Is not the councils at Paris dependent on stewardship of the earth , a commonly used believe amongst many religions . Perfect for creating a new world order or feudal system

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        • #
          el gordo

          We are in the midst of an economic, technological and communications revolution, there is no going back.

          Retaining our three tiers of government, upper and lower houses at state and federal level, checks and balances in place. Democracy can be revitalised with new immigrant parties, a more evolutionary break from the past.

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      Anybody who restricts themself to only one way of spealing any word, obviously has no creatifity.

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      • #

        Anybody who restricts themself to only one way of spealing any word, obviously has no creatifity.

        Da guys scratching on wet cave walls wid whatever handy were trying desperately to stop shivering! Its been downhill ever since. :-)

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  • #
    Another Ian

    “The Western Elite from a Chinese Perspective”

    Link at

    http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2018/01/the-western-eli.html#comments

    Plus comments

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    yarpos

    I think the latest batch of cub journalists (or whatever they call them now that journalism is dead) must be from Iceland or maybe Svalbard. Anytime the temperature is forecast above 30C the glowing sunset pics come out and its all an unprecedented/scorching/sweltering apocalypse. Its like summer has never happened before in the history of Australia. Sunburnt Country and all that.

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      TdeF

      A friend argues that journalism is dying with the newspapers. While the left of politics have completed the long march through the institutions, including journalism, their teaching has been for nothing. There simply are not going to be any journalists.

      The news will be reported by people with no interest in the truth and an instruction to push the ratings. Clickbait news will dominate. You would not believe. Why Kim Jong Un is a good chef. Why world leaders under 30 are the best. Of course, why Donald Trump is an alien called Kang and Melania is Kodos. Sources will not be named.

      The BOM will not change. They have people paid to sensationalize the weather and to push Global Warming. The truth will not matter and even the raw data is not out of bounds. This is new science. The facts must change to fit the story.

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        Another Ian

        Might well be fewer newspapers for the journalistic craft if this goes ahead

        “There’s more than one way to skin a fake news publisher.

        If you think President Trump has an antagonistic relationship with the press now, just wait until his administration slaps a new 30% tax on newsprint.”

        http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2018/01/enemy-of-the-pe-1.html

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        el gordo

        ‘There simply are not going to be any journalists.’

        We are reporters on this platform and potentially the opportunity to write for the MSM as journalists, if we know our stuff and can structure a story.

        Remember it was our colleague Tony who talked of ‘baseload’ long before anyone else, now everyone in the country casually drops the word.

        ‘The BOM will not change.’

        As the evidence mounts for global cooling, they will be forced to change their tune. On the other hand, if world temperatures don’t come down then the Klimatariat will feel vindicated and BoM won’t change.

        Our side is dependent on natural variables to win the debate, we can’t bluff it.

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      PeterS

      The Daily Planet was closer to the truth than much of what passes as journalism these days. Why the ABC hasn’t been shut down by now for blatant propaganda and one sided reporting that breaches their own rules is beyond me. The least they could do is fund another public broadcaster of equal amount to compete with the ABC. Although two wrongs don’t make a right, a left and a right do cancel out each other. It’s then up to the public to decide which is closer to the truth.

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    Yonniestone

    Funny cartoons about a previous thread on Powerlineblog, The Week in Pictures. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2018/01/the-week-in-pictures-bomb-cyclone-edition.php

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    pat

    ***”other sources” would appear to include federal funding – see excerpts from comments:

    6 Jan: WUWT: Obama Federal Climate Advisory Committee Reconvenes
    by Eric Worrall
    Do climate scientists require Federal Government funding? The answer surprisingly appears to be no; President Obama’s former Federal Climate Advisory Committee have secured ***other sources of funding…

    from UK Independent: Columbia University’s Earth Institute has hired one of the committee’s researchers, Richard Moss of the University of Maryland, who will reconvene most of the former panel members and produce the same report…

    FROM COMMENTS:
    rogercaiazza: According to Governor Cuomo’s announcement (LINK)
    Therefore, Governor Cuomo, as co-chair of the U.S. Climate Alliance and in collaboration with partners, will reconvene the Advisory Committee to develop recommendations to navigate the challenges of climate change. As a result, the Advisory Committee will continue its critical work without political interference and provide the guidance needed to adapt to a changing climate…

    dennisambler: “Richard Moss of University of Maryland”
    Scientist? (LINK)
    2007: WWF: World Wildlife Fund Names Climate Expert Richard Moss as Vice President and Managing Director for Climate Change
    A member of Nobel-Winning IPCC Team, Moss to lead WWF Efforts to Shape International Climate Protocols…
    He is a former Senior Director for Climate Change and Energy, United Nations Foundation…
    Moss has been a member of the IPCC since 1993. He was a Review editor for IPCC AR5 WGII Ch. 14, “Adaptation needs and options”. From 2000 to 2006, he served as director of the coordination office for the United States Climate Change Science Program.
    His doctorate is in Public and International Affairs. (LINK)…

    ATheoK: A yahoo 2013 article:
    “Columbia University
    > Total federal R&D grant money: $645 million
    > Pct. R&D spending from government: 73.4%
    > 2012 endowment: $7.65 billion
    Federal funding accounted for the majority of the total $878 million research and development budget at Columbia University in 2011. Of the $645 million received in federal funding, close to $91 million came from the National Science Foundation, and more than $18 million came from NASA. But the federal government was not the school’s only major source of funds. Columbia received nearly $36 million in research funding from businesses and more than $65 million from nonprofit organizations, both among the highest totals in the nation.”
    A more recent number from “National Science Foundation” (LINK)
    “Federal obligations, all agencies, (funds to Columbia University”, 2016; $515.5 million”

    USA Federal Government should freeze all federal funds to Columbia University immediately…

    ETC
    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/01/06/obama-federal-climate-advisory-committee-reconvenes/

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      Sceptical Sam

      President Obama’s former Federal Climate Advisory Committee have secured ***other sources of funding…

      Just as the Australian Climate Commission secured other sources of funding when it was put to bed. It became the Climate Council. Same people, same works of fiction, same silly supporters.

      Since the “science” is settled no more funding is needed.

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      Len

      Columbia University is often referred to as the Communist University. It was the University that took in the Cultural Marxists when they fled from Hitler and Germany.

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    Extreme Hiatus

    On an older thread el gordo, in the context of whether Trump is working on a long plan to deal with the CAGW Monster, asked me the following question. Since I just spent quite a bit of time putting this answer together, and this news seems to be running under the radar, and this comment could easily get lost where it is, I’m posting it here too – with an additional link and comment – because I think it is very important.

    “After the Russian scandal do you think he’ll get a second term?”

    el gordo, you are a little out of date on that “Russian scandal” thing. Not surprising as the MSM propaganda machine is still flogging it while burying the emerging real story… but they can’t keep hiding it for much longer. Here’s the best summary on what’s really going on, from a great independent investigator. You can easily follow the links in it to substantiate everything in it.

    “This outline is the story of how the FBI Counterintelligence Division and DOJ National Security Division were weaponized. This outline is the full story of what House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes is currently working to expose. This outline exposes the biggest political scandal in U.S. history. This outline is also the story of how one man’s action likely saved our constitutional republic.”

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/01/05/operation-condor-how-nsa-director-mike-rogers-saved-the-u-s-from-a-massive-constitutional-crisis/

    On other tangents to this story, did you know that there is now a new investigation into the Clinton Foundation?

    http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/367541-fbi-launches-new-clinton-foundation-investigation

    In VERY related news, did you know about Trump’s Executive Order about clamping down on corruption? It has major implications. It is officially called “Executive Order Blocking the Property of Persons Involved in Serious Human Rights Abuse or Corruption.”

    https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2017/12/26/2017-27925/blocking-the-property-of-persons-involved-in-serious-human-rights-abuse-or-corruption

    Just googled to get you a link that would explain its implications and, surprise, surprise, Google has buried it too except for this link with a convenient Russia connection (you can find more links with more search time):

    “On December 21, 2017, President Donald Trump issued an Executive Order that would strike fear in the hearts of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and every corrupt actor in their international cabal that coalesced behind closed doors in an effort to install Hillary Clinton as President in 2016. The EO follows news of an FEC complaint blasting the money laundering scheme devised as part of the covert arrangements Clinton, Obama, the Democratic Party, big media, and big tech used to undermine democracy in 2016.”

    https://www.therussophile.org/trump-executive-order-could-mean-killarys-goose-is-cooked.html/

    So, yes, I think he’s headed for a second term and will very effectively deal with the CAGW Monster unless they Kennedy him.

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    This summer I’m having trouble adjusting to the new language. Need to remember to ask if people would like their wine cyclone-bombed or room temp. When serving spirits I have to offer straight-up or with cyclone bombs. Have to ask kids if they want vanilla cyclone bomb cream or Neapolitan cyclone bomb cream…

    Anyway, Warmageddon is coming to the Macleay Valley today. Blast Furnace is edging toward us. Must not forget to top up the cyclone bomb trays and put them in the cyclone bomberator.

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    • #
      joseph

      OMG! Not summer weather in summer!

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      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        Fraid so Joseph. Bu it’s starting to cool down here – was 43 an hour or so back, now 42. (Those are back verandah temps, and noway claimable as official.)
        Cheers,
        Dave B

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        • #
          Gazman

          That’s right. To be official it would need to be a digital thermometer placed much closer to an airport runway or perhaps the freeway. From that vantage it can record a one-second temperature spike. None of those pesky one- or five-minute average recordings allowed. Just ask the BOM.

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  • #
    pat

    6 Jan: Yorkshire Post: Tony Lodge: If Britain doesn’t build new power stations now, the lights will go out. Here’s why
    (Tony Lodge is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies and co-author of The Hidden Wiring – How electricity imports threaten Britain’s energy security)
    UNTIL recently, British power stations could supply all of the electricity the nation needed. A mixed portfolio of coal, gas, nuclear, oil and renewable plants kept the lights on and allowed for a mixed and balanced choice of fuels to generate power.
    But chronic failures over a generation to get new ones built – as old ones closed – now means Britain is importing more and more electricity from Europe with plans to import up to a fifth of supplies by 2025. This is bad policy.

    Our new Centre for Policy Studies paper, The Hidden Wiring, follows months of research and analysis into proposals for more undersea cables to import electricity, called interconnectors, and their negative impact on Britain’s electricity market and investment. We are calling for our findings to be urgently considered and examined by the competition authorities and Parliament.

    Britain’s interconnector imports from Europe increased by 52 per cent in the three years to 2016, and they are set to surge as new interconnectors are planned. Back in 2012, imports were expected to account for just six terawatt hours (TWh) of supply per year in 2030. But four years later, the projection has radically changed. The 2016 forecast sees Britain’s electricity imports rising from 21 TWh today, to a peak of 77 TWh in 2025. That’s close to a fifth of supply.

    However, our research shows it is increasingly unlikely there will be much spare electricity in Europe to send to the UK going forward. It is ironic that it was Britain’s slavish adherence to EU directives which made us close many coal and oil fired power stations, such as Ferrybridge, before we had replacements ready and which has now resulted in a panic policy to import more electricity from Europe.

    It estimated that Britain would need 26GW of additional gas generation capacity by 2030 to plug any potential gap left by cloudy, windless days and to replace the electricity output from closing older coal, oil and nuclear plants. On current trends, however, the UK is on track to build just 12GW by 2030. This goes some way to explain the panic dash to build interconnectors…

    Coupled with this is EU policy to combat climate change and air pollution; it will accelerate the shutdown of firm generating capacity across the Continent…
    Interconnectors enjoy a competitiveness boost from the fact that generators on the Continent don’t have to pay Britain’s high carbon price floor tax – unlike UK generators. This means they can undercut British generators, even if their power comes from dirty coal-fired capacity in the Netherlands or Germany. So instead of cutting carbon emissions, the UK is in some cases just offshoring it. Imports also don’t pay the transmission charges faced by UK generators.

    Connected to this is the sham claim by National Grid that the UK is increasingly enjoying ‘coal free’ days – a PR wheeze based on the point that no UK coal plants are generating any electricity at a certain time.
    The claim is flawed because the UK is increasingly importing electricity and National Grid cannot guarantee this electricity has not been generated from the many coal plants in Europe…
    https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/tony-lodge-if-britain-doesn-t-build-new-power-stations-now-the-lights-will-go-out-here-s-why-1-8942772

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      Graeme No.3

      Sold out on Amazon. You can download a free .pdf from the Centre for Policy Studies.

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      OriginalSteve

      Excellent!

      Shut down UK generating capacity to make the UK dependent on the EU again via interconnectors ( socialists love making people slaves….) , then start dropping generating capacity across all the EU, so UK will then suffer, and which will take down all the EU as well via the climate change lie…..

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    pat

    5 Jan: UK Telegraph: Jillian Ambrose: UK to end 140 years of coal power by 2025
    The Government confirmed that its 2015 pledge to phase out coal-fired power within a decade would move ahead under a new rule that limits the ‘carbon-intensity’ of power plants.
    The limit will allow thermal power plants that use lower-carbon gas to act as back-up generation, but coal plants will be forced to close unless they are fitted with carbon capture technology…

    In order to meet the UK’s legally binding climate change targets Government has set an emission limit of up to 450 grammes of CO2 for each kilowatt hour of electricity produced to squeeze out the remaining coal plants.
    However, experts have warned that despite the 2025 cut-off Britain’s six remaining coal plants could still enjoy an 11th-hour revival by scooping up contracts to generate power during the winter.

    Hannah Martin, from Greenpeace UK, warned that the carbon-heavy fossil fuel should be replaced with clean technologies “well before the 2025 deadline” if the UK hopes to remain a global leader in tackling climate change…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/05/uk-end-140-years-coal-power-2025/

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    Mark M

    Long-lost continent found submerged deep under Indian Ocean

    https://www.newscientist.com/article/2119963-long-lost-continent-found-submerged-deep-under-indian-ocean/

    One of the big discoveries for 2017 must have been the discovery of a whole continent that was around 85M years ago and disappeared. Like as if Europe just now submerged …

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    pat

    4 Jan: CBC: AP: Norway court clears way for controversial Arctic drilling
    Oslo District Court acquitted government against charges from 2 environmental groups
    A court in Norway said Thursday that the government can hand out oil drilling licences in the Arctic, dealing a blow to two environmental groups that had filed a lawsuit against further drilling in the Barents Sea.

    The Oslo District Court acquitted the government against charges from Nature and Youth and Greenpeace Nordic that drilling for oil and gas in Arctic waters would violate with the Paris Agreement on climate change and the Norwegian constitution.

    The court cited the constitution, saying “natural resources shall be managed on the basis of long-term considerations, which will safeguard this right for future generations as well.”

    Activists decried the decision…
    The court also said the groups should pay legal expenses worth 580,000 kroner (about $118,000 Cdn).
    Greenpeace spokesman Truls Gulowsen said the group is considering whether to appeal.
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/norway-court-arctic-drilling-1.4472884

    AP left out the ***Grandparents & the sentence marked ****:

    5 Jan: The Local, Norway: AFP: Environmentalists lose lawsuit over Norway’s Arctic oil licenses
    The groups Greenpeace, Natur og Ungdom (Nature and Youth) and the ***Grandparents Climate Campaign had accused Norway, western Europe’s largest oil and gas producer, of violating a new article of the country’s constitution that guarantees since 2014 the right to a healthy environment…

    ****The Oslo court said Norway could not be held responsible for CO2 emissions caused by hydrocarbons which it exports to other countries…

    A victory for the environmentalists would have had serious economic repercussions for Norway which owes its wealth to oil…

    The London-based Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment has listed more than 260 climate-related cases in 25 jurisdictions, most of them during the past decade.
    This figure excludes the United States where the number of such cases exceeds 700…
    https://www.thelocal.no/20180105/environmentalists-lose-lawsuit-over-norways-arctic-oil-licenses

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    pat

    5 Jan: UK Telegraph: Jillian Ambrose: Energy supply start-up folds following gas price shock
    The closure of Brighter World Energy comes just weeks after the UK gas market rocketed to five-year highs, raising fears of a financial crunch for small suppliers.
    The energy minnow, set up a little over a year ago, said it had made the “difficult decision” to shut the business because market conditions had made its ‘buy-to-give’ business model unsustainable.
    The supplier had hoped to set itself apart within the crowded energy supply market by promising to help install a solar-powered micro-grid in an African village for every 2,000 customers it signed up…

    In the wake of the market surge it emerged that Flow Energy and Spark Energy both missed a payment deadline for their share of a Government scheme that helps vulnerable customers pay their winter gas bills…
    One of the market’s fastest growing new suppliers is understood to be on the brink of announcing a significant tariff hike for its newly won customers, according to industry sources.

    Already Good Energy has delivered a hike of 7pc for 70,000 customers just before Christmas, and Toto Energy raised its standard variable tariffs by 22pc. The minnow also angered customers by calling for a 50pc hike from their direct debit customers on fixed tariffs, before backing down from the ‘seasonal’ winter price change, saying it was a “misprint”…

    Brighter World’s customers will be passed on to its partner company Robin Hood Energy, a not-for-profit supplier, with no change to their contract terms or account balances. Brighter World will also waive any exit fees for those customers who would prefer to leave Robin Hood.
    ONE COMMENT ONLY:
    David Pike: Its very unfortunate that they will need to close, however the spike was temporary and prices have since returned to November levels. A small supplier such as ourselves “The Peoples Energy Company” had hedged ahead so the spike had minimum impact and certainly posed no threat to our financial viability, nor did we need to alter our very low tariff. David Pike: – CEO The Peoples Energy Company
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/01/05/energy-supply-start-up-folds-following-gas-price-shock/

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    Antoine D'Arche

    hi guys can someone pls give me the link(s) to power generation at each site?
    I have the AEMO dashboard for use and price, but I can’t find the generation stuff.
    TIA

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    • #
    • #

      Antoine,

      there are a couple of sites which you can use to give totals of a relatively accurate nature, such as the Aneroid site.

      However the AEMO does have a huge and pretty unwieldy site that all those others use for their data.

      That is at this link – http://www.nemweb.com.au/REPORTS/CURRENT/Dispatch_SCADA/

      It is updated every five minutes.

      Once at that link, scroll to the bottom for the most recent release.

      Click on the link. It’s a compressed zip file, and you will have to save the data and then open it up in MS Excel type program.

      It details the actual power generation at each site in the AEMO coverage area, in Column F and G

      For the breakdown of each sites designator, you’ll also need this site as well. – AEMO Participant Registrations List

      After a while you get used to what the names are and you don’t need to keep checking that second list of names and acronyms.

      So, once you open it up scroll down a bit to find Bayswater (BW01 to 04)

      Unit 1-626MW
      Unit 2-665MW
      Unit 3-665MW
      Unit 4-657MW

      For a total of 2613MW. So that’s 99% of original design capability from a power plant already five years older than the (hoped for) maximum life span of any wind plant in existence anywhere.

      So, Unit 2 all on its own is generating a tad less power than EVERY wind turbine currently generating in the whole of Australia.

      Tell that to wind power supporters.

      There REALLY is no substitute for coal fired power.

      Tony.

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        Dennis

        On Hobart Television News last night (CH7 elsewhere) the claim was made by a female being interviewed about the electricity supply situation in Victoria commented that coal fired power stations “trip out” regularly.

        Unprofessional journalist interviewers allowing such deceptive comments to pass without question is disgraceful.

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          yarpos

          I have heard that little nugget about unreliable coal creeping into some articles and statements. I guess they have to have something to say to counter the intermittent renewables reality, and lying is so easy for them.

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          Bobl

          Yes, saw that nonsense in qld too. It’s true, but typically with n+1 redundancy that doesn’t matter the should be cover for any one unit outage. Steam plants can also deliver up to 120% of nameplate on demand for a short time while redundant units are spun up. Like to see solar or wind do that, lucky to get 80% with no overload margin.

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        • #

          That’s absolute bovine waste about coal fired Units power plants ‘tripping out’ regularly.

          In the last six Months of watching on a daily basis, and sometimes many times each day, I would be hard pressed to have seen a failure from full power to zero, eg, ‘tripping out’ half a dozen times from any of the single Units at any of the ‘majors’, let alone a whole plant. It just happens so very rarely.

          I used to have the thought that hey, just put me on TV, or the radio, or even at the media sites and I could explain just how important coal fired power really is, and just how totally useless the renewables of choice really are. That thought passed years ago now, because I know ….. absolutely, that no one will believe a single word I say, so there’s no point really.

          I just go on doing what I have now been doing for ten years this March. At my home site, I now have more than 1500 separate Posts on the ‘whole of it’, so if when the time comes when the truth does come out, I can never be accused of ‘jumping on the bandwagon’.

          It’s all there, all written down and detailed.

          NO ONE will ever believe the facts anyway, because they have now been conditioned to believe.

          That’s why when the truth really does come out, the shock will be profound, and the backlash will be furious to say the least.

          Tony.

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            Bobl

            The report said there was around half a dozen *trips over three months if I recall, they mean across all units across Australia. Having said that there is no basis stated for what a *trip is.

            Now compare this with the minute to minute unreliability of the unreliables

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        PeterS

        There REALLY is no substitute for coal fired power.

        Yes, and the rest of the world not only knows that but they are also acting on it by building several hundreds of new coal fired power stations as we speak. Only Australia is stupid enough to do the opposite. Stupid is as stupid does.

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        Antoine D'Arche

        thanks Tony! :)
        and you’re right – no-one will believe you. But you, among others here, are an extremely valuable source of knowledge and have informed my understanding of the power generation side of things immensely. So thank you.

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    pat

    good news:

    4 Jan: ClimateChangeNews: Finance researchers are failing to engage with climate change
    Despite warnings from central banks and a year of costly climate disasters, America’s leading finance conference is ignoring climate change risks and opportunities
    By Ivan Diaz-Rainey
    (Ivan Diaz-Rainey is an associate professor of finance at the University of Otago, New Zealand0
    The great and the good of academic finance are meeting 5 to 7 January in Philadelphia at the American Finance Association (AFA) Conference.
    The topics to be address are broad and include analyses of asset returns, examinations of the implication of “FinTech” and gender issues in finance…

    Following hot on the heels of 2017, a year where the US suffered from devastating hurricanes and fires exacerbated by climate change, one would expect finance professors at the AFA Conference to be busily figuring out if climate change has important financial implications. Right?

    Wrong. A quick glance at the AFA Conference schedule makes it patently clear that climate change and climate risk is not on the menu. This is all the more surprising since climate finance has become a defining topic in policy and practice…

    Unsurprisingly, leading climate change journals like Nature Climate Change and Climatic Change have engaged with climate finance topics both on the risk and opportunity side. But is climate finance an important topic in finance research? As implied by the 2018 AFA Conference schedule, it would seem not.

    In a paper published with colleagues at the Tyndall Centre in Climate Change Research last May, we systematically analyse the content of 20,725 articles published in the leading 21 finance journals between January 1998 and June 2015. We repeat our analysis across a sample of 29 elite business journals spanning accounting, economics, management, marketing and operations research, as well as finance…READ ON
    http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/01/04/finance-researchers-failing-engage-climate-change/

    following is from a paper (linked) that believes handing over money will stop the climate changing – “Principles to guide investment towards a ***stable climate”:

    4 Jan: OxfordMartinSchool: New principles to guide corporate investment towards climate goals
    In response to a very different moral dilemma in the 1970s, the Sullivan Principles were developed to help investors and companies by providing a practical set of guidelines on how to engage with businesses in the South African apartheid regime.
    A new set of principles are needed to address the moral challenge of climate change. These principles, developed by a team of researchers at the Oxford Martin School, and published this week in Nature Climate Change (LINK), are a set of scientifically-grounded tools for the use of both investors and companies to assess corporate strategy against climate change…

    The paper applies these principles to three very different companies – BHP Billiton, Unilever, and Statkraft. Dr Richard Millar, Oxford Martin Fellow at the University of Oxford said: “Our case studies show that while most companies would be unlikely to satisfy all the principles today, doing so would not be beyond the reach of most companies in the future.”

    Professor Cameron Hepburn, Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Net Zero Carbon Investment Initiative added “Climate change presents a cornucopia of risks for business: companies need to think through their strategic position as the industrial economy changes, not only in terms of immediate policy and regulation but also in terms of their supply chain.”

    Professor Myles Allen, also Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Net Zero Carbon Investment Initiative emphasised, “In a nutshell, investors need to know how companies plan to thrive both during and after the transition to net zero emissions. Everything else is secondary.”

    Professor Sir John Beddington, Senior Adviser at the Oxford Martin School, concludes, “The involvement of the commercial sector is essential if climate change is to be mitigated. The simple solution of no investment in fossil fuel related companies is not the answer. These principles provide a significantly more sophisticated way for investors and companies to engage beyond simple divestment.”
    The full paper “Principles to guide investment towards a stable climate” (LINK) features in the journal Nature Climate Change.
    https://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/news/2018_new_corporate_principles

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      Another Ian

      “Professor Myles Allen, also Co-Director of the Oxford Martin Net Martinet Zero Carbon Investment Initiative emphasised, “In a nutshell, investors need to know how companies plan to thrive both during and after the transition to net zero emissions. Everything else is secondary.”

      At least for some of its meanings

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martinet

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    el gordo

    Climate Change Refugees

    ‘Charities are concerned rough sleepers could be particularly vulnerable, with the mercury expected to reach 38C in the CBD.

    ‘People working for Mission Australia’s homelessness transport service Missionbeat will be moving some people to cooler locations.’

    Weatherzone

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    pat

    “but we do know climate change will give us DIFFERENT winters” – HUH?

    behind WaPo paywall, so fun to just read some of the comments here:

    Facebook WaPo: 4 Jan: WaPo: Chris Mooney: How climate change could counterintuitively feed winter storms
    There’s a lot we don’t know – but we do know climate change will give us different winters
    98 COMMENTS AT TIME OF POSTING, INCL NEAR THE TOP:
    Christopher Langhans: I am so frustrated by the comments on this article. Are there really that many climate change science deniers reading the WP? If so, please read the articles and try to absorb what the scientists are telling us. Unless one has a PHD in climate science, they are truly not qualified to call BS to climate change theory.
    https://www.facebook.com/washingtonpost/posts/10157297303192293

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      Another Ian

      Don’t I recall that degrees in climate science are pretty new-fangled so that PhD’s in such might yet be in short supply?

      And that few of the usual suspects spruiking up actually have same?

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        Bobl

        Actually there isn’t any degree in climate science. They are environmental science degrees. The intake is from around the 55th percentile of school leavers by contrast, engineers come from the top 25% and journalists from the 40th percentile. Even journalists are smarter than climate scientists.

        So order of ranking of competence would suggests we listen to the engineers, then journalists then climate scientists in that order.

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        • #
          el gordo

          If Communications courses started running a stream called Climate Science 101 with modules in atmospheric science, political science and paleo climate history, then we might see some progress.

          Journalism schools remind their undergrads that journalists are ranked below car salesmen.

          In my mind this crowd funded blog is a university education in climate science, which has equipped me to become a tutor at CSU after the penny drops.

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    Another Ian

    More things not in the climate models

    “Kurtosis, Mpemba, Temperature and History”

    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2018/01/05/kurtosis-mpemba-temperature-and-history/

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    robert rosicka

    How to make a 39c day scary , tell them it’s going to melt your face .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-07/canberra-weather-hottest-day-summer/9309122

    Unfortunately the only refer to the face melting in the header .

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    • #
      pat

      robert rosicka -

      the face-melting is the headline on the ABC “Just In” page, but if you open your link it is now, as per the url:

      Canberra expected to record hottest day so far this summer
      By Jordan Hayne
      After a cooler than expected overnight low, Canberra is predicted to record its hottest temperatures so far this summer, with firefighters urging vigilance amid a forecast high of 39 degrees Celsius.
      Canberrans avoided what was expected to be one of the warmest nights this summer, ***after temperatures fell to 15C by dawn, five degrees cooler than the expected minimum…

      theirABC a couple of days ago & note the forecast wasn’t just “five degrees” above 15C. it was predicted the overnight low would be “well above 20C”:

      5 Jan: ABC: Heatwave: Temperatures to rise above 40C as weather forecasters issue heat stress warning
      Canberra is expected to reach 36 degrees Celsius on Saturday, and the overnight low is predicted to remain ***well above 20C…
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-05/heatwave-weather-forecasters-issue-heat-stress-warning/9305728

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        pat

        should have included ABC’s full “face-melting” headline on “Just In” page:

        “Cooler night brings some respite, but Canberra set for face-melting day”

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          robert rosicka

          Must be climate change / globull warming Pat , the freeways never used to melt at 30c and faces never melted under 40c before .

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        • #
          yarpos

          somebody should get all thousands of petrol heads from the Summer Nats in Canberra and put them in a nice cool shopping centre. Yeah, that would work.

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      el gordo

      ‘After a cooler than expected overnight low, Canberra is predicted to record its hottest temperatures so far this summer …’

      The rest of the story is Lifestyle.

      Jordan Hayne is unaware that he is looking at a regional cooling signal, low pressure troughs heading south and blocking highs.

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    pat

    news.com.au is no better than theirABC. check some of the temps included in the article for proof this “blast furnace” is NOT moving “across Australia”:

    7 Jan: news.com.au: Matt Young, With AAP: Australia sizzles as east coast temperatures hit up to 45C
    AUTHORITIES are sending warnings to the public to prepare for the worst as a “blast furnace” moves ***across Australia
    EMERGENCY services are bracing for what is predicted to be one of the hottest days of the year as a dangerous “blast furnace” moves across Australia.
    Large parts of southeast Australia are set to swelter through the extreme heat today, with dry, gusty north-westerly winds sending hot air from Central Australia to New South Wales, delivering the searing heat.

    Sunday is expected to be the “first extreme heat day of the year” across New South Wales and various parts of Australia.
    Ambulance Victoria state health commander Paul Holman described the conditions “like a blast furnace”.
    Authorities say the hot conditions are not expected to ease until Tuesday…

    A Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson told ABC News this morning that “a weak change should drop temperatures a little bit this evening, but it’s quite a short lived change and it will get warm again tomorrow … it shouldn’t get as hot, but western parts of Sydney should see 40C tomorrow again,” the spokesperson said…
    http://www.news.com.au/national/australia-sizzles-as-east-coast-temperatures-hit-up-to-45c/news-story/4c2c2098f54cd9ac5bc57e83ded657c9

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    John of Cloverdale WA

    Spent a couple of weeks down Albany, in SW WA, over the Christmas break. I don’t think they have a summer down there. I noticed the max temp BoM forecast today is 19 deg and nothing over 24 degrees next week. Which leads me to conclude that SW Oz must be a depleted CO2 zone.

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    Roy Hogue

    Quick, run and hide your women and children. Here comes another scare out to get you.

    Ocean deoxygenation.

    It will, naturally of course, get worse as the earth heats up because of global warming.

    Don’t laugh too hard, they claim to have measurements and a known cause. :-)

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    Extreme Hiatus

    Following on the recent ‘Bill Shock’ post here, this is an interesting analysis of the renewable energy scenario in Europe from someone in the business. They do keep referring to the Nameplate Production versus the real production but otherwise has some good data and graphs on costs, etc., by country.

    Has a few tidbits like this too: “Despite being staunch environmental supporters and relatively wealthy, when the price of a liter of B100 was higher just by one cent German consumers immediately switched to its fossil fuel counterpart.

    In other words, when push came to shove the willingness to pay for a “green” premium was not there… This stunned us at the time.”

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-06/can-we-afford-renewable-energy

    Consumers are worse than they thought!

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    ROM

    .

    Consumers are worse than they thought!

    Probably one of the most realistic and perceptive comments on the growing consumer attitudes to all the do- gooder, save the planet schemes yet.

    So the Elites then bring on another tax to force the consumer, the man and woman on the street to conform to the elite’s personal ideology on the so called and unproven Climate Change

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    ROM

    .

    Consumers are worse than they thought!

    Probably one of the most realistic and perceptive comments on the growing consumer attitudes to all the do- gooder, save the planet schemes yet.

    So the Elites then bring on another tax to force the consumer, the man and woman on the street to conform to the elite’s personal ideology on the so called and unproven Climate Change

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    ROM

    Now how did I do that ????

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    Another Ian

    Weekend Australian headline just now

    “Roaring 40s: Ozone warning as temps peak”

    The rest is paywalled

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    Rod Stuart

    “Ozone levels are higher outdoors than indoors, so limiting time outside during the heat of the day and in the evening would help people to keep cool and to limit their exposure to ozone pollution,” Environmental health director Ben Scalley said.

    This is in the Weekend Oz under the heading “NSW weather: fire danger, ozone warnings amid heatwave”
    What in Heaven’s name are they on about?????
    Ozone pollution now????

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    Brett

    If Penrith’s records only go back to 1995 and Sydney’s go back to 1858* are these headlines lies?
    “Sydney hits its highest temperature ever recorded with Penrith reaching 47.1 degrees Celsius”
    “Sydney sizzles through its hottest day on record”
    “Sydney’s all-time record was broken when Penrith hit 47.1 degrees this afternoon”

    *Observatory Hill –
    SYDNEY (OBSERVATORY HILL)
    33.8607°S 151.2050°E 39m AMSL
    Commenced 1858
    Rainfall records: 158.9 years between 1858 and 2017
    Min. temperature records: 158.0 years between 1859 and 2017
    Max. temperature records: 158.0 years between 1859 and 2017

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    Another Ian

    “Rex Murphy: Too frigid for global warming? This is why they rebranded it ‘climate change’

    http://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-too-frigid-for-global-warming-this-is-why-they-rebranded-it-climate-change

    Via a comment at WUWT

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    GreatAuntJanet

    Is this website re the King Island renewable energy really showing live data? I looked at it about 3 days ago, and then several times since, and it always shows 96% of energy coming from diesel (not biodiesel)and 4% from wind, nothing from solar. No clouds over Tas right now, and I would have thought the whole thing would vary anyway. Or have I got the wrong end of the stick?
    http://www.kingislandrenewableenergy.com.au/

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    • #
      Rod Stuart

      You are spot on, Janet.
      King Island has been smack dab in the middle of a big high most of the day, so the KIRA is becalmed, just as sailors of yesteryear would become dead in the water even in the roaring forties.
      As for the solar panels, I could only care to guess that at this time of day the incidence angle is such that they are pretty much useless too.
      Over the course of the year, even though Hydro Tas has spent a king’s ransom on the capital equipment, the facility uses the diesel input for the total amount of energy generated, which suggests to me that even as high tech as you can go, with batteries and even a flywheel, and even in the most choice of locations for breezes and sunbeams, that 40% is, as in the movie “Oklahoma”, they’ve gone about as fur as they can go.
      That is not to say that I am bagging the facility. Traditionally the island relied on diesel only, and to reduce the consumption by 40% is a dramatic saving. Not knowing the fortune that has been sunk into it, I have no idea what the return on investment is, but I’ll wager it’s pitiful. Still, a project such as that, built to investigate the feasibility of ruinables, is an investment in knowledge. What irks me is that, after having spent tonnes of other peoples’ money to find that even under best most fantastic conditions, breezes and sunbeams can only be counted on for 40%, Hydro still insists on spruicking MORE wedge tailed eagle mascerators, and even “pumped hydro” using other peoples’ money.

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        Peter C

        I agree Rod,

        King Island wind has been minimal due to the High pressure cell. Also wind has likely been affected by cloud cover. Therefore no renewable energy resources at all.

        With respect to the Kings ransom spent on all the infrastructure you are likely correct on that as well.

        I have asked them twice about the relative costs of their renewable energy vs diesel costs but have had no reply.

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    William

    Sydney is apparently having its second warmest day on record – and believe me, it was hot here next to the harbour (43.2) and much worse in Western Sydney (47.3). The record remains back in 1939 so clearly today’s heat is proof of catastrophic AGW.

    That said, I would be interested to see what the temperatures would be today if it was based on a seven minute average, rather than the BOM’s one second travesty. If anyone knows how to do that from the raw data it may (or may not) show that it is not as hot as they are telling us.

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    This week’s data and analysis for the Base Load Series I’m doing is at the following link, and I now have 27 weeks of data.

    I’m concentrating on that 4AM time of least power consumption to highlight how much power is being used at that time, and how much of it comes from coal fired power, now back up past 80% of 18000MW.

    I only put in one line of data about the total power being consumed at Peak Power times during each of those days, and how much comes from coal fired power, so just curious, I went back and took a few hours to work out the totals for both and the percentage, and found that during Peak Power, coal fired power is delivering just on 72.2%, and that equates to an average of around 19000MW, just from coal fired power, so it ramps up each and every day from around 14400MW at 4AM.

    The daily average for all coal fired power in Australia is just on 76% now, and that has actually risen over the last couple of years, and that even applies after the closure of Hazelwood.

    Australian Base Load Electrical Power – Week Ending 6th January 2018

    Tony.

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    pat

    7 Jan: Age: Teenager charged following fire in Carrum Downs
    by Jane Gilmore, Goya Dmytryshchak, Craig Butt and Liam Mannix
    A 15-year-old girl has been charged with intentionally causing a bushfire that left one Carrum Downs family without a home on Saturday.
    The blaze started about 3.15pm at the Pines Flora and Fauna Reserve in Carrum Downs and soon threatened homes bordering the reserve. It travelled very quickly, powered by the northerly gusts of up to 40km/h.

    At the height of the fire there was more than 300 firefighters battling the blaze, along with 50 appliances including three helitankers.
    Dozens of residents, mainly from McClelland and Darnley drives, were evacuated as several homes were threatened by fire but by 7pm they were allowed to return…

    Temperatures plummet in Melbourne but remain high in state’s north
    The mild weather will continue for Melbourne, staying below 26 degrees for the first half of the week until a warmer 34 degrees on Thursday. Temperatures will drop again on Friday with an expected rainy 30 degree day and a mild weekend.
    A Bureau of Meteorology spokesperson said that while the temperature was extreme it was not unusual for this time of year. “The most remarkable thing about it is it’s the ***first day over 40 degrees since 13th January 2016,” he said. “We didn’t have a single day over 40 last summer, which is quite unusual for Melbourne.”…
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbourne-weather-teenager-charged-following-fire-in-carrum-downs-20180106-h0eiwt.html

    ***was it 2016 or 2015, as per the following?

    7 Jan: ABC: Teenage girl charged with starting Carrum Downs bushfire as residents assess damage
    By Kathy Lord
    Jim Crozier’s house was damaged when embers got in through an evaporative cooling unit on the roof…
    Mt Crozier said his music studio was probably damaged and he had lost an art collection worth $40,000…

    Dean Stewart, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology, said after highs of 45 degrees Celsius at Mildura and Walpeup in the state’s north-west, the weather conditions in southern Victoria today had improved significantly.
    “Temperatures fell 10C in six minutes as that change moved through,” he said.

    ***”The last time we exceeded 40 degrees was back in 2015 when we reached 42.2C on January 13.”
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-07/carrum-bushfire-15yo-girl-charged/9309124

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      pat

      every time the temps go up, ABC and other MSM make bushfire connections:

      6 Jan: ABC: Victoria’s fire threat eases ***as temperatures plummet in Melbourne
      http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-06/bushfire-emergency-carrum-downs-house-damaged-by-fire/9308170

      is the Australian situation different to the US experience?

      Dec 2017: Orange County Register: How do wildfires start? Usually with people
      By Liset Marquez
      This week’s explosion of fire activity in Southern California may have many wondering: How do wildfires start?
      In short, by humans, says John Keeley, who has been researching fire records from the past 100 years to determine the historical causes of fires in the state.
      During Santa Ana winds one of the most common causes is power lines being blown down. Another is arson…

      “Humans are the only sources of fires during Santa Ana winds,” said Keeley, a research ecologist with United States Geological Survey. “You don’t get lightning during Santa Ana wind conditions. Humans are responsible for all the fires, either directly or through the power lines.”
      Though official causes for the current wildfires have not been released, Keeley said history has shown that sparks from lines are a huge factor in igniting wildfires.

      According to Cal Fire statistics, seven of the top 20 most destructive California wildfires were caused by power lines or arson. Another seven on that list are still under investigation or undetermined.
      “A lot of arson-ignited fires occurs under Santa Ana wind conditions because I suppose the arsonist sees that as an opportunity to create a really big fire,” he said by phone Thursday afternoon.

      As for other causes reported by CalFire and the U.S. Forest Service, Keeley said his research has found:
      • Debris burning
      • Smoking
      • Campers leaving fire unattended
      • Kids playing with matches
      • Sparks from trains
      • Outdoor equipment
      • Weed whackers
      • Vehicles

      With vehicles, Keeley said, “catalytic converters get real hot and you pull your car off to the grass alongside the road and a lot of fires get started that way.”…

      In coastal California, lightning accounts for about 1 percent of all fires; in the Sierra Nevada, about 45 percent; and in northeastern California, 60 percent, he said.

      What’s not a factor?
      Climate change, Keeley said.
      He said climate change would only figure in California’s more heavily forested landscapes in the state.

      Looking at 100 years of climate data and fire data for the state, “in Southern California we could not find any relationship between climate and fire,” he said.
      ***“We believe the reason is, every single year it’s hot enough and dry enough for a big fire.”
      Which means it’s outside factors that determine a big wildfire…
      https://www.ocregister.com/2017/12/07/how-does-a-wildfire-start-with-people/

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    pat

    7 Jan: ABC: AP: US weather: 100 million people affected by East Coast deep freeze following ‘bomb cyclone’
    Updated about 5 hours ago
    About 100 million people are facing a new challenge after the whopping east coast snowstorm in the United States: a gusty deep freeze.
    Jaw-clenching temperatures are expected over the weekend throughout the north-east, having already hit Vermont, Philadelphia, New York and Connecticut.

    Winds of more than 144 kilometres per hour swirled New Hampshire’s Mount Washington, the north-east’s highest peak, at a temperature of -38 degrees Celsius and a wind chill of -69C
    It tied for second place with Armstrong, Ontario, as the coldest spot in the world.

    Boston, at a relatively balmy -11C, was wrangling with a different kind of challenge — a shortage of plumbers as the weather wreaked havoc on pipes that froze and cracked, Democratic Mayor Marty Walsh reported.

    Photo: The massive storm, which struck on Thursday, buried most of Massachusetts in 30cm or more of snow

    In New Jersey, many people stayed home instead of dealing with single-digit temperatures…
    “My car felt like an icebox this morning, even though I had the heat on full blast,” Julie Williams said as she sipped coffee inside a Jackson Township convenience store…

    Ski resort closes due to frostbite warning…
    With a temperature of -25C at the summit and -23C at the base, the (Bolton Valley Vermont) resort cancelled evening skiing due to a frostbite warning…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-07/100-million-people-affected-by-us-east-coasts-deep-freeze/9309188

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    • #
      Nick Werner

      Has climate science come up with a unit of measure for “bomb cyclone” intensity? Or should we just refer to how many negative Hiroshima’s these storms carry?

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    DonS

    Well it took almost a week but the ABC finally got around to reporting the record cold weather in the USA. Of course they only report in terms of “bomb” cyclone climate scare but at least they decided that something that was been reported across the rest of the global media was worth a mention. I notice that this weather system has now been given a name as is the custom with tropical cyclones. How long have they been doing this? What’s the bet that the next low pressure system that produces bad weather in SE Australia is labeled a “bomb” cyclone and given a name?

    Speaking of bombs, I hear on the news today that the BoM somehow managed to underestimate the temperature forecast in New South Wales yesterday by up to 10C e.g. predicted max 30C for Wollongong but actually reached 40C. If true, how could this possibly happen? Are they using a model to forecast daily temps now instead of looking at what is happening in the real world?

    Two possible explanations come to mind 1: The senior forecasters are still on holidays and the work experience kids are looking after the shop or 2: They deliberately forecast lower temps so that when temps go way over they can claim the climate is out of control and no longer behaving in a predictable way. You know like it did in the Goldie locks days of the solid state climate that existed before evil humans came along and stuffed it.

    25% error on a daily forecast and they still tell me the planet will be 1-3 degrees hotter in 100 years. Hmmm right.

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    • #
      Peter C

      “We want our news straight up!

      The first step in correcting the problem with our journalism is admitting that we have one. Until then nothing will change.”

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    pat

    ***could kill India’s climate goals.
    what will it take before the FakeNewsMSM admits India is not interested in “climate goals”?

    6 Jan: Daily Herald: Booming air conditioners ***could kill India’s climate goals
    Cooling accounts for up to 60% of the peak energy load during the summer in hot Indian cities.
    By Shashank Bengali / Los Angeles Times
    More than any other household good, the air conditioner symbolizes the soaring aspirations of one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies. Although only 5 percent of Indians own the appliances today, they are buying millions more every year, driving a worldwide boom that, according to one estimate, will nearly triple the global stock of air conditioners to 2.5 billion by 2050…

    The average air conditioner sucks 20 times as much energy as a ceiling fan, and studies show that space cooling accounts for 40 percent to 60 percent of the peak energy load during the summer in hot Indian cities such as Mumbai and New Delhi. By 2030, Abhyankar projects, the surge in air conditioning alone will raise India’s electricity demands by 150 gigawatts, the equivalent of adding three economies the size of California to its power grid…

    Most of that electricity will come from coal, pumping out more of the carbon emissions that are blamed for worsening pollution, respiratory diseases, millions of premature deaths and hotter air temperatures — which will only push people to buy more air conditioners.
    India is in the midst of one of the biggest urban transitions in history, with more than 400 million people projected to migrate to cities by 2050…

    China faced a similar moment in the last decade of the 20th century. Over 15 years, urban Chinese plugged in more than 200 million new room air conditioners, adding 200 to 250 gigawatts of peak electricity demand — most of which was met by carbon-belching thermal power plants…

    But to lift hundreds of millions of people out of poverty requires readily available electricity, and Indian officials say that means coal will remain the country’s most important fuel source for the foreseeable future…

    In 2009, a study by Michael Sivak of the University of Michigan estimated that the potential demand for cooling in Mumbai alone was one-quarter that of the entire U.S., which has 18 times the population…
    https://www.heraldnet.com/nation-world/booming-air-conditioners-could-kill-indias-climate-goals/

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    pat

    7 Jan: Japan Times: Record low temperatures stoke chaos in U.S. and Canada
    by AFP-JIJI
    Mount Washington, New Hampshire, recorded the second-coldest temperature on Earth early Saturday, with a wind chill close to minus 73 Celsius (minus 100 Fahrenheit).
    In Canada, temperatures approaching minus 50 degrees Celsius (minus 58 degrees Fahrenheit) were forecast in northern Ontario and Quebec.

    Arctic blasts and dangerously cold wind chills could make it feel as low as minus 45 Fahrenheit (minus 20.5 Celsius) across the eastern United States, with the risk of frostbite to exposed skin within 10 minutes, officials warned.
    …on Saturday, more than 3,420 flights within, into or out of the United States were still delayed, with New York’s John F. Kennedy Airport and South Carolina’s Charleston International Airport among the most affected…

    In New York, the National Weather Service chalked up record lowest high temperatures for the day at each of its climate sites except for Central Park. Forecasters says below-normal temperatures are likely to continue into early this week, forecasting freezing rain from Kansas to Tennessee, and that ice could complicate road transport…
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/01/07/world/record-low-temperatures-stoke-chaos-u-s-canada/

    6 Jan: Hartford Courant: Cold Wave Puts Pressure On Energy Suppliers
    By Gregory B. Hladky
    Officials at ISO-New England, operators of the region’s power grid, said energy demands during the recent arctic weather have placed major pressures on energy generators, forcing power companies to rely more on coal and oil to produce electricity…

    Energy industry officials have for years warned that inadequate pipeline capacity limits the amount of natural gas coming into New England during peak demand periods like this one. Several multi-billion-dollar proposals for new pipelines have been blocked or withdrawn in the last two years as a result of financing issues and opposition from environmental and consumer groups…

    “We’ve absolutely seen huge [institutional and industrial] users switching to fuel oil,” Herb said. He said big schools like the University of Connecticut, Yale University and Fairfield University, as well as a number of big industrial plants, are now using oil to power their heating systems…
    http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-news-cold-snap-energy-20180105-story.html

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    Bob Malloy

    PS: There is a rumor that Australia has only 4-5 days of fuel stocks today, and is especially low on aviation fuel. Anyone with info, please comment or email joanne AT this site.

    Maybe you are referring to Jim Molan’s Statement through the week, when he said our military would grind to a halt in 19 days if we were called on in a major conflict.
    Off the top of my head the numbers he quoted are 19 days for petrol, 15 or 16 days for Aviation fuel and 12 days for diesel.

    Any way you look at it if a foreign power blockaded or shipping channels we are in deep do do.

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    el gordo

    Regional Cooling Chaos

    ‘Thousands of passengers are stranded at John F Kennedy airport following more than 6,000 flight cancellations or delays

    ”People are sleeping on the ground, people are sitting on the ground. People have taken over wheelchairs….It’s complete chaos,’ one passenger said.’

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5242803/Two-planes-crash-JFK-airport.html#ixzz53UhTbXyO
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

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    pat

    7 Jan: UK Sun: THE BIG FREEZE Britain to remain bitterly cold after overnight arctic blast sparks heart attack and stroke warnings
    NHS England has warned Brits to take extra precautions as the cold weather hits
    By Susannah Keogh
    BRITS have shivered their way through freezing temperatures overnight with the ice blast sparking warnings of an increased risk of heart attacks from the NHS…
    Met Office forecaster Helen Roberts predicted wintry records could tumble overnight, with the mercury expected to drop to temperatures as low as -14 in the Scottish Highlands…

    A spokesperson said: “Freezing conditions are forecast in some areas and evidence shows that the risk of heart attacks, strokes and other serious breathing problems increases as temperatures plummet.”…
    “Overnight, there could be decent records broken in Scotland, and temperatures are widely below average at the moment, but it’s rising closer to average as the week progresses.”

    The warning comes as the NHS faces mounting pressure this winter forcing hospitals to cancel thousands of operations, sparking fears the health service is in a “winter crisis”…
    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5281313/uk-weather-forecast-temperatures-this-weekend-latest-arctic/

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    pat

    7 Jan: FirstPost: PTI: Cold wave turns severe in Punjab, Haryana; Adampur records coldest temperature at 0.7 degrees Celsius
    Chandigarh: Severe cold wave was sweeping Punjab and Haryana for over a week further intensified on Sunday with minimum temperature hovering in the range of 2-5 degrees Celsius at most places.

    Adampur in Punjab was the coldest place in the two states with a low of 0.7 degrees Celsius, a MeT Department official said in Chandigarh.
    Freezing cold also swept Narnaul in Haryana, which recorded a low of 1.5 degrees Celsius…

    Piercing cold also swept Amritsar in Punjab, which recorded a low of 2.6 degrees Celsius, down one notch against normal.
    Bathinda recorded a low of 2.5 degrees Celsius, Halwara 3.7, Pathankot 3.8, Gurdaspur 3.8, Faridkot 3.8 and Ludhiana 4.4 degrees Celsius were among other places in Punjab which reeled under intense cold as minimum temperature hovered few notches below normal limit…

    There was no let up in biting chill at Hisar in Haryana, which recorded a low of 2.4 degrees Celsius, down four notches against normal limit.
    It was icy cold in Sirsa, with minimum temperature settling at 2.1 degrees Celsius…
    http://www.firstpost.com/india/cold-wave-turns-severe-in-punjab-haryana-adampur-records-coldest-temperature-at-0-7-degrees-celsius-4291283.html

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    pat

    6 Jan: NYT: In Alps, Avalanche Warnings and Stranded Skiers After 6 Feet of Snow
    By MEGAN SPECIA
    The Alps faced widespread avalanche warnings, and some villages were cut off this week after the winter storm Eleanor swept through the region, dumping more than six feet of snow in some areas.
    The road into the French ski resort of Val Thorens was closed because of the snowfall for a period of time from Wednesday into Thursday, leaving thousands of vacationers stranded. Authorities advised those staying in the area to remain indoors until the storm passed by…

    In the Austrian Alps, two German skiers were killed in an avalanche on Friday near Kals in Tyrol province, according to the German news outlet Bild.
    In the Italian ski resort town of Cervinia, the storm blanketed the area with two meters, or six and a half feet, of snow. The only road connecting the resort to the outside world was closed for 24 hours, leaving nearly 10,000 tourists stranded in the town, according to the Italian news agency ANSA. Photos posted to social media showed buried cars and sidewalks and streets made impassable by the snow.

    The group of 12 had visited from Britain and were amazed by the sheer magnitude of the storm.
    “Unbelievable amount of snow,” Mr. Hammond said in a message sent on Friday night. “We’ve been here for the last seven years on family holidays but have never seen it like this.”…

    ***PHOTO: A view of the streets of Cervinia, Italy, after nearly six and a half feet of snow fell on the Alpine village on Jan. 3.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/world/europe/alps-winter-storm-eleanor.html

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    pat

    7 Jan: ClevelandPlainDealer: Here’s how long it’s been freezing in Cleveland
    The arctic air mass that blasted into Cleveland that night has kept temperatures below freezing, and about 25 degrees below normal, ever since. The last day above 32 degrees was Dec. 24, when the high hit 33.
    Only two days have climbed above 20 degrees during the two-week cold wave: Dec. 25, when the high reached 28, and last Wednesday, which made it to 21.
    Sunday is forecast to be the 14th straight day below freezing, but a bit warmer, with a high around 25…
    http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2018/01/heres_how_long_its_been_freezi_1.html

    7 Jan: Accuweather: Relief from brutal cold is in sight for northeastern US this week
    By Renee Duff
    During the first week of 2018, temperatures were 15 to 25 degrees Fahrenheit below normal from Indianapolis and Detroit to Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and Syracuse, New York…
    The less brutal conditions will be a welcome relief for residents who have dealt with high heating bills, water main breaks, frozen pipes and car battery issues during the piercing cold spell.
    Those eager to get outside for an extended period of time can do so without the heightened risk of frostbite…
    https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/relief-from-brutal-cold-is-in-sight-for-northeastern-us-this-week/70003756

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    pat

    reminder: 3 Jan: 9news.com.au: AP: Science explains US chill in warmer world
    IS IT JUST THE US?
    Pretty much. While the United States has been in the deep freeze, the rest of the globe has been warmer than normal.
    The globe as a whole was 0.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal on Tuesday and the Arctic was more than 3.4C warmer than normal, according to the University of Maine Climate Change Institute’s analysis.

    5 Jan: SouthChinaMorningPost: 10 dead as blizzards take heavy toll on central China
    Snowfalls force closure of airports, roads and high-speed train services, and squeeze already short supplies of heating gas
    Blizzards in central China have killed at least 10 people and affected more than 560,000 others this week, with eight people dead in Anhui province alone, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said on Friday.

    Shanxi, Henan, Hubei, Anhui and Jiangsu are the worst-hit provinces, with the storms inflicting an estimated 510 million yuan (US$78.6 million) in economic losses since Tuesday, according to ministry figures.
    Up to 410mm of snow blanketed parts of Henan, Hubei and Anhui provinces.
    The blizzards forced closure of expressways, high-speed train services and airports in many affected areas, and destroyed about 200 homes.

    They also interrupted deliveries of fuel, from thermal and coking coal to liquefied natural gas, traders and shipping sources said.
    The sources said the transport disruptions had pushed up the price of coal, which could worsen heating fuel shortages for residents in the country’s frigid north.
    The freezing temperatures prompted the industrial city of Wuhan, in Hubei province, to ease gas restrictions, offering respite to some residents…
    The National Meteorological Centre said late on Thursday that moderate to heavy snow was set to hit Jiangsu and Anhui provinces, while the southwestern Guangxi region was facing heavy freezing rain and sleet…

    ***Record levels of snowfall since late Wednesday have paralysed parts of China, with Nanjing, the capital of Jiangsu, issuing a blizzard “red alert” on Thursday afternoon after forecasting snow depths of up to 250mm…
    The weather bureau issued an “orange alert” on Wednesday, with snow disrupting public transport and energy supplies, damaging power lines and forcing authorities to shut down roads, airports and schools in parts of central China.
    At least three airports were closed and nine others experienced extensive delays on Thursday because of heavy snowfall.
    http://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/2126964/china-lifts-blizzard-alert-more-snow-freezing-rain-and-sleet

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    pat

    too cute:

    VIDEO: 7 Jan: WaPo: Weather instruments freeze as cold snap hits central China
    A weather instrument in Huajialing, China, is disrupted by a heavy coat of ice and snow on Jan. 2 after a snowstorm hit the area.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/local/weather/weather-instruments-freeze-as-cold-snap-hits-central-china/2018/01/06/35a35358-f303-11e7-95e3-eff284e71c8d_video.html

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    pat

    final one – amazing pics:

    6 Jan: WorcesterTelegram: Brrrrrrrr! Worcester high temperature of 6 degrees ties 1896 record
    By Elaine Thompson
    The National Weather Service said the high temperature of 6 degrees on Saturday tied the record high temperature on Jan. 6, 1896…
    “It’s too cold,” Ismael Matos, a native of Puerto Rico who lives in Worcester, said while washing the salt from the roads off his car at the ScrubaDub on Route 9 in Shrewsbury.

    Other people stopped by to clean their vehicles, but most left after seeing that the automated service was closed and they would have to wash their cars themselves in one of two self-service bays that was operational.
    Rofiyat Tosin, who braved the bitter cold to visit a store on Front Street Saturday, said she is not used to the cold. She was born in Nigeria but has traveled to Worcester since 2009.

    PHOTO GALLERY 30 PICS: Record cold temperatures in Worcester County

    “This is some of the most extreme weather I have ever seen,” she said. “Yesterday was my birthday and I couldn’t go anywhere.”
    The temperature was expected to dip to 8 degrees below zero Saturday night into Sunday morning.
    “So it’s possible (Worcester) will break the (Jan. 7) record low of minus 5 degrees set in 1942,” Lenore Correia, an NWS meteorologist in Taunton said. “People should limit their time outside because you could get frostbite in under an hour.”
    http://www.telegram.com/news/20180106/brrrrrrrr-worcester-high-temperature-of-6-degrees-ties-1896-record

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    pat

    oops, forgot this one:

    7 Jan: WeatherChannel: Dangerously Cold Temperatures Grip the Northeast to Close the Weekend
    Record lows and dangerously cold wind chills are gripping the Northeast this morning, capping off a major Arctic outbreak that began in late December…

    Wind chills in the teens, 20s and 30s below zero are widespread across the Northeast this morning. Frenchville, Maine, saw its wind chill fall to minus 40 degrees…

    Several daily record low temperatures have been broken or tied this morning in the Northeast. Here are some of the records set so far.
    •Baltimore (BWI airport): 1 degree
    •Boston: minus 2 degrees (tie)
    •Hartford: minus 9 degrees
    •Providence: minus 3 degrees
    •Worcester, Massachusetts: minus 9 degrees…

    Record Cold Recap
    In New England, Mount Washington recorded a temperature in the minus 30s, but with hurricane-force winds in place, wind chills were in the 80s and 90s below zero on Saturday morning…FULL ROUND-UP
    https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2018-01-01-arctic-record-cold-outbreak-forecast-midwest-east-south-early-january

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  • #
    toorightmate

    The “Alert SA” app has failed and been scrapped.
    Yet again, SA is not too alert. It never has been.

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      The “Alert SA” app has failed and been scrapped.Yet again, SA is not too alert. It never has been.

      Seems similar to the USA-FBI deputy director for counterintelligence. Any counter to intelligence is termed ‘Stupidity’; (deputy director for stupidity). Seems all this fool ever did as US a governmental/Clinton Cartel employee was to Strzok his Peter! OH woha are we!!

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  • #
    el gordo

    Bipolar seesaw on a decadal scale.

    ‘Data from ship-based hydrographical surveys and autonomous floats have shown a substantial warming in the Southern Ocean (SO) from the 1930s to the 1970s, but little change thereafter. Further analysis of longer-term global sea surface temperature (SST)2 and polar surface air temperature (SAT)3 suggest multi-decadal interhemispheric seesaw (or “bipolar seesaw”) patterns that are well correlated with the multi-decadal oscillations of North Atlantic SST2,3, termed the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO).

    ‘It has been generally hypothesized, therefore, that multi-decadal oscillations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could be a cause of this fluctuating bipolar seesaw, as the AMOC connects both poles because it transports heat northward in both hemispheres. When AMOC strengthens, northward oceanic heat flux increases, warming the Northern Hemisphere (NH) but cooling the Southern Hemisphere (SH).

    ‘The recent phase of the interhemispheric or bipolar seesaw, including warming in the northern North Atlantic and comparative cooling in the SO, has led to the speculation that AMOC has been strengthening since the 1970s.’

    Zhaomin Wang et al 2015

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