JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 9.3 out of 10 based on 18 ratings

168 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #

    With Minimum temperatures supposed to be warming faster than maximums the last six months here below is looking very wrong for the theory.
    http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=minanom&period=6month&area=nat

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    • #

      Our fire is still going strong, as is everyone else’s in our area. One day global warming will arrive in our neighbourhood.

      110

      • #
        Yonniestone

        Three days this week of breaking out the thermals for work and a few blasts of hail to boot, the warming will come in its own good time just not when the climate dogmatists wish it so.

        100

      • #
        Annie

        Our stove is going strong too and we have a goodly frost on the ground. I didn’t cover the little lime tree and it has new tender growth. :(

        60

        • #
          Yonniestone

          In this weather I make sure my little lime tree is covered Annie!

          50

          • #
            Annie

            I should have done Yonnie. I was just too tired last night. However, I did go out and put a bit of old sheeting over it to keep the sun off it and thawing it out quickly. Still to go and inspect the tree for damage. I hope my OH’s G and T won’t miss out! Our lemon tree (too large to cover now) was very severely damaged by our long cold winter and several really hard frosts.

            30

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Frost (or at least ice on the car window) on Oct. 31, Nov. 4 & 5 here in the Adelaide Hills. Gas fire on most mornings.

        60

      • #
        Dennis

        No fire here but only 18C in my home office and there is a chilly breeze outside, more late snow at Barrington Tops NSW, maybe.

        11.33am

        40

    • #
      el gordo

      Regional cooling has begun.

      80

      • #
        Dennis

        Thankfully I live not too far from the ocean, that’s where global warming is hiding the warming mob say, so I’ll be ok.

        80

    • #
      popeye26

      Sunny Sydney – well not today – (raining and quite miserable) and this will last all day.

      Current temp at my place in Sydney’s north west is 14 degrees

      Bring on some globull warming PLEASE!

      Cheers,

      81

    • #
      Ian1946

      Nice day here in SE Queensland it will reach max. We have had some very warm days for Autumn maybe global warming starts at the tweed river

      80

    • #
      toorightmate

      Sunday morning Brisbane 5 November. About 19degs and drizzly rain.
      That’s global warming for you!
      In actual fact the weather is a bit cooler today. You know “WEATHER” – that stuff that gets hot and cold and wet and windy and sunny and and and and….
      Weather, the stuff that is now called climate.

      80

    • #

      So often what we call hot and cold is the result of cloud and front activity, which is why min/max is such a meaningless statistic without plenty of context and commonsense interpretation.

      High spring heat is common on the east coast of NSW but it’s always a shock because it comes with inland wind patterns and a lower sun which hits humans and dwellings more laterally. It’s also very common to have cool conditions after high spring heat as oceanic winds begin to dominate following spring equinox.

      An example of what I’m talking about: This year we had a very clear and completely dry September here on the midcoast. The average min for this September was 6.5, well below longer term average (no cloud cover, duh) but the average max was a very high 26.6 (no cloud cover, duh).

      But guess what. Our October min was above average and our October max was below average. In fact, October’s max was lower than September’s! Not global anything, just our climate up to its old tricks. The winds, clouds and humidity changed, so no cold nights but no hot days either.

      This is why statistics without much context and mature interpretation are complete bunk and this is why so much of what passes for education and information these days is complete bunk.

      91

    • #
      Mark M

      Heh, Without us doing a thing the planet has apparently cooled …

      Good News on Warming: Ozone Hole Is Smallest Since 1988

      https://www.livescience.com/60858-smallest-ozone-hole-over-antarctica.html

      Warm air helped make 2017 ozone hole smallest since 1988

      https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/11/171102121016.htm

      60

  • #

    Looks like Greenland surface mass balance is off for a good start at going the wrong way for the theory for another year.
    http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

    140

  • #

    The Antarctic sea ice extent variation which seems to be claimed as a result of global warming either way is just not varying. https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png

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    • #
      RickWill

      The Antarctic sea ice dipped to a low in February 2017. That followed the 2016 El Nino and a rapid dump of heat into the southern ocean.

      I have used the Earth’s Observatory data to show the consequence of that dip in sea ice extend:
      https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgl5pzqqW6mk6LRrA
      The plot compares the measured OLR for the southern ocean by latitude for 2017 against 2014 when the austral summer ice extent was higher than average. The heat loss in 2017 was some 3W/sq.m greater than 2014 over the latitudes shown, which represent 10% of the global ocean surface.

      This is actual data showing how reduced ice extent results in higher global heat loss. This is Earth’s Thermostat at work.

      If CO2 had a significant influence on ocean surface heating the polar sea ice extent would be reducing over the long term to release the heat retained. Fact is there is no long term reduction in total sea ice.

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      • #
        Manfred

        RickWill, I’m trying to understand your post. February 2017 is typically the low point for Antarctic sea ice, which almost disappears each year at this time.

        Antarctic Sea Ice – NASA Earth Observatory
        “Since 1979, the total annual Antarctic sea ice extent has increased about 1 percent per decade. Compared to the Arctic, the signal has been a “noisy” one, with wide year–to-year fluctuations. For three consecutive Septembers (2012 to 2014), satellites observed new record highs for winter sea ice extent around Antarctica. The largest of those occurred in September 2014, when the ice reached 20.14 million square kilometers (7.78 million square miles). Still, increases in Antarctic sea ice are exceeded by decreases in the Arctic. That is to say, global sea ice is decreasing even as Antarctic sea ice is increasing slightly.” [it is hypothesised that sea ice can increase with warming because (roughly) > melt = ice + changes in stratification and convection within sea water blocks heat from below]

        Unlike the Arctic, where the downward trend is consistent in all sectors, in all months, and in all seasons, the Antarctic picture is more complex. Although sea ice cover expanded in most of the Southern Ocean between 1979 and 2013, it decreased substantially in the Bellingshausen and Amundsen seas. These two seas are close to the Antarctic Peninsula, a region that has warmed significantly in recent decades.
        The variability in Antarctic sea ice patterns in different sectors and from year to year makes it difficult to predict how Antarctic ice could change as greenhouse gases continue to warm the Earth. Climate models predict that Antarctic sea ice will respond more slowly than Arctic sea ice, but as temperatures continue to rise, a long-term decline is expected.

        The process in the Southern Ocean appears particularly complex (Upwelling Longwave Over The Ocean – WUWT)

        This (tallbloke says: January 8, 2013 at 7:31 am) may be the best succinct synopsis I have identified.

        The net flux warms the air as it cools the ocean. The important difference between the two processes is that in the lower troposphere the upward component warms the air by transferring energy to GHG’s, whereas the downward component predominantly cools the ocean by driving evaporation, since it is all absorbed within a few micrometers of the surface, and concentrates its energy there.

        If you can humour a dullard and explicate your post #3.1, it would be more than passingly helpful. Thanks. M.

        30

        • #
          RickWill

          Manfred
          You may recall that in February 2017 NASA reported that the combined sea ice extent was the lowest ever recorded:
          https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/seaice_trends_chart.png

          The reduction in sea ice extent followed an El Nino period for the Pacific in 2016 with a large expanse of hotter water from the Coral Sea moving southward through 2016.

          I expected the reduction in sea ice to result in increased heat loss from the Southern Ocean and the OLR data supports that. I summed the derived OLR flux for each latitudinal band for all longitudes from the data available at the Earth Observatory site:
          https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=CERES_LWFLUX_M
          The curves drawn compare the month of February for 2017 and 2014.

          As expected there was more heat release from the Southern Ocean in 2017 than 2014. A combination of water surface being hotter and less sea ice that insulates the surface.

          The average 3W/sq.m over these latitudes may not seem much but the area represents 10% of the oceans while the claimed CO2 forcing is 3.5W/sq.m for doubling CO2. So the 3W/sq.m over 10% of the ocean is significant in this regard and demonstrates the self-regulating global climate system.

          Reducing sea ice means greater heat loss. The tropical latitudes gain heat for the globe and the higher latitudes lose heat. So reduced sea ice causing increased open ocean surface literally opening the window to space for more heat loss. This image shows the net radiant flux globally:
          https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=CERES_NETFLUX_M
          The tropical oceans gain heat at up to 200W/sq.m and the polar oceans lose heat at up to 200W/sq.m.

          These are top of the atmosphere fluxes so the weather below that is irrelevant other than it is the weather that distributes the heat.

          There is a small downward trend in total sea ice over the last 40 years but it is only evident when viewed as an anomaly with an exaggerated scale as used in the NASA plots. My plot of the data to full scale has no significant drop but some variation around the long term average:
          https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgVr59PXA_67TgnYA

          As a further comment the CO2 forcing at 3.5W/sq.m is way above any measured impact. MODTRAN will give the value for a clear sky above a surface of 300K. The OLR for such a surface is 300W/sq.m.

          The measured value of OLR over a tropical ocean at 303K can be as low as 197W/sq.m. If the atmospheric model in MODTRAN is fiddled to get that OLR then the CO2 forcing drops to well below 1w/sq.m. Any model that assumes the Earth always has clear skies will not produce useful results.

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          • #
            Manfred

            Thanks RickWIll for the clarification, and in particular for the insight provided by, “There is a small downward trend in total sea ice over the last 40 years but it is only evident when viewed as an anomaly with an exaggerated scale as used in the NASA plots.”

            “Reducing sea ice means greater heat loss.” brings to my mind, greater emissivity but reduced albedo. Greater emissivity may suggest raised air temperature and humidity > cloud formation, which potentially reduces OLR?

            Any further thoughts to account for (potential) changes in these variables in your analysis?

            Thanks again.

            As a visual aside you Amy have seen this time lapse satellite imagery? …. Minimum Antarctic Sea Ice 2017 NASA “Scientific” visualisation studio makes great viewing but in and of itself has limited scientific value with respect to underlying trends.

            10

            • #
              RickWill

              The energy in Earth’s climate system relies on net heat intake in the tropical oceans and net heat loss from the oceans in higher latitudes. The thermal imbalance drives the main ocean currents and atmospheric circulation.

              The high water content in the atmosphere over the majority of the tropical latitudes limits heat loss to not much above 200W/sq.m. Over temperate oceans, where the atmospheric water is less, the heat loss can be up around 300W/sq.m.

              Land does not have much influence on the energy balance because it does not store heat. If you look carefully at the linked net radiation map you will see the Sahara is the only tropical region that has a net energy loss:
              https://neo.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/view.php?datasetId=CERES_NETFLUX_M
              Compared to the water that surrounds this land mass, the Sahara is like an open window that allows some of the heat from the tropical oceans to escape – another open window to space just like reduced sea ice in the polar oceans.

              The light bulb moment for me was appreciating that the atmosphere above a tropical ocean at 303K could have such low transmissivity that heat loss was as little as 200W/sq.m. I have not seen data from climate models that produce such low values.

              If you play with MODTRAN the water vapour scale needs to be taken to 40 to get down to 200W/sq.m above a 303K surface;
              http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/modtran/
              If you look at the data that takes the relative humidity to 100% up to 18km. There is no actual data that shows such high water content. So this questions the validity of tools like MODTRAN.

              10

              • #
                Will Janoschka

                If you play with MODTRAN the water vapour scale needs to be taken to 40 to get down to 200W/sq.m above a 303K surface;

                Why oh why are you playing with ModTran for any atmospheric EMR power transfer. All of the USAF Cambridge Labs TRANS programs (LowTran, MidTran, HiTran, ModTran) cannot do that by design back in 1975. All of the TRANS code is only for the atmospheric mass attenuation of EMR modulation (spatial\temporal\seeing)! As far as EMR ‘DC’ power transfer outward there is no way to distinguish exit flux from the surface and that originating from the lower temperature atmospheric mass at any frequency and in any direction. The Rudy Clausius 2nd Law on plain science is Stuff don (does not) spontaneously go uphill!capish?Space has very low opposing radiance (downhill)

                16

          • #
            Will Janoschka

            RickWill November 6, 2017 at 8:27 am

            “The measured value of OLR over a tropical ocean at 303K can be as low as 197W/sq.m. If the atmospheric model in MODTRAN is fiddled to get that OLR then the CO2 forcing drops to well below 1w/sq.m. Any model that assumes the Earth always has clear skies will not produce useful results.”

            Can you please discuss the concept of a 303K (30°C) tropical ocean surface?

            Just Who and When did anyone ever ” measure” an OLR EMR flux value as high as 197W/m² anywhere on the surface of planet Earth? 27W/m² maximum from tropical dirt maybe\sometimes!
            Has anyone ever considered the extreme difficulty in attempting to measure surface spontaneous EMR exit flux anywhere? No one that I know of has ever done that with acceptable accuracy! :-( weep!

            16

  • #
    OriginalSteve

    Early november and our central heating is on….global warming…

    ..Yeah, right….

    80

    • #
      RAH

      My central heating is on also but I live near Indianapolis, IN. Covered the outside Air conditioning unit. Put away the outside furniture on the deck and put my log rack up there. Tomorrow, if I’m not called to work I will stock the log rack tomorrow before the heavy weather comes in. Took off the outside he hoses and drained them and put them away. Tomorrow severe weather is supposed to pass through then later next week old man winter starts to display his dominance so I’m getting ready.

      100

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        A reminder why Australia is called the Lucky Country – at least until 2007. I haven’t heard the term much lately.

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    • #

      Brrr..O Melbourne Weather,
      you’re so variable,
      from fine ‘n sunny to wintry terrible,
      often in just one day.
      Brrr…O Mr Weatherman,
      send me some globul warming I pray,
      tomorrow, if not today …brrr.

      40

  • #

    El Nino was supposed to occur more often but here comes another La Nina by the looks. http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/anim.html

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    • #
      el gordo

      ENSO remains an enigma, but the Red Team is convinced it has nothing to do with industrial CO2.

      http://www.co2science.org/subject/e/summaries/ensogw.php

      51

    • #
      Sceptical Sam

      Yes, and interestingly the focus in the table “Regularly Updated Operational Coral Bleaching Monitoring Products” underneath the graphic is on “Hotspots” and “coral bleaching”, with no reference to the many “cold spots” that exist.

      There’s a very large cold blob off the west coast of Western Australia which Jo and others have commented on from time to time and which is having a big impact on Western Australian weather.

      And they call this objective science?

      51

      • #
        Graeme#4

        The cold blob off the west coast extends quite high up, but it hasn’t been as cold as last year, when the lower SW corner didn’t have a spring. Although we have had a colder and wetter start to spring this year (same as last year), it seems now to be settling into a familiar spring pattern with higher temps and little rain. So now I’m waiting to see what summer will bring, as last summer was very atypical with lower temps, rain and significantly higher humidity.

        30

  • #
    robert rosicka

    I’d love to know what this message means , you only seem to see it directed to SA and only when wind is blowing strongly , I suspect it’s a notice to shut down a few wind turbines and increase gas turbines .

    Market Notice 59792
    AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE.

    Direction – South Australia Region 4/11/2017

    In accordance with section 116 of the National Electricity Law AEMO has issued a direction to a participant in the South Australia region.

    The direction was necessary to maintain the power system in a secure operating state.

    The direction was issued at 1615 hrs 4/11/2017, with effect from 1900 hrs 4/11/2017. The direction is expected to stay in place until 0900 hrs 5/11/2017.

    Manager NEM Real Time Operations

    60

    • #
      Peter C

      What is your source, Robert?

      30

    • #
      amortiser

      I have noticed on a number of occasions that when wind in SA reaches 70%CF it levels off or flatlines until it naturally falls. On the Anero site you can see a number of farms generating at capacity yet others relatively nearby are way down.

      It looks very much like they are being restricted to ensure the viability of the gas generators. If this is the case it looks like the end of further investment in wind power in that state.

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    • #
      RickWill

      The wind generation in SA is capped at 1200MW for stability reasons. AEMO would have forecast rising output in the afternoon.

      The wind generation does not appeared to have reached the cap although it sat around 1100MW for a while. Earlier today Waterloo and North Broken Hill farms may have reduced output but it was after 9.

      30

  • #
    robert rosicka

    Adam Bandt called Dutton a terrorist! Being a green I think pot kettle black .

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    • #
      el gordo

      Big mistake taking on Dutton, he’ll wipe the floor with Bandt.

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      So a zealot blindly following a false god that puts the lives of innocent people at risk for the benefit of none involved labels one of the last normal politicians in this country a threat to the nation?

      Yep makes sense coming from a self loathing malthusian I guess.

      71

    • #
      Glen Michel

      Bandt is an effeminate joke. Typical of Greens. Devoid of character and vacuous to boot.

      40

  • #

    As per normal for the last ten years the Arctic sea ice was supposed to be all gone.
    “Arctic sea ice may well be gone by September 2017″
    http://arctic-news.blogspot.com.au/2017/08/arctic-sea-ice-may-well-be-gone-by-september-2017.html
    Also as per normal the ice did not get the memo.
    https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png

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  • #
    Peter C

    Is the UAH Temperature global temperature series still the best!

    Global temperatures according to HadCrut4.5 (as interpreted by Clive Best) have been plunging
    https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/h4-sep20171.png

    UAH satellite temperature estimates have been going the other way. It shows we are almost back mean the worst of the recent El Nino.
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_October_2017_v6.jpg

    50

  • #
    TedM

    Peter C. I suspect more than a little cynicism driving your question. Yes it is still the best reference, but as I’m sure you know they measure somewhat different things.

    Hadcrut: Surface temperature. then homogenised.

    UAH: Lower troposphere, I think to about 14km.

    I would suggest that like Hadcrut it will soon start to show a fall as it is impacted by an oncoming LaNina.

    60

  • #
    TedM

    The lag is usually two to three months as I understand it.

    50

    • #
      toorightmate

      The lag for a Labor voter is about 50 years.
      The lag for a Green voter is at least 500 years.

      81

    • #
      Peter C

      Yes UAH is supposed to measure an average temperature in the troposphere. It must it’s self be a construction of the temperature, composed of many measurements averaged and weighted in some manner.

      It seems a bit problematic to me that the last 4 months of UAH have been going up at a time when cooling is expected.

      There seems to be a lot of jiggling about in the UAH temperature. How much of that is real and how much is random noise I do not know.

      30

  • #
    Will Janoschka

    Just in time! Thank you Joanne :-)

    https://arstechnica.com

    “You have been banned from this board until Sun Nov 05, 2017 4:27 pm.
    Please contact us for more information on Moderation & Forum Issues.
    Reason given for ban: Trolling. An established field of science is not a scam. https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/11/us-government-climate-report-climate-change-is-real-and-our-fault/?comments=1&post=34280595#comment-34280595

    numerobis Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:57 pm

    (Will Janoschka wrote:
    “Can you provide even one example of “physical evidence” as opposed to fantasy conjecture\computer modeling; that supports such an egregious claim?”)

    “Sure, Tyndall 1861. http://tyndall1861.geologist-1011.mobi

    J. Tyndall (careful chemist) demonstrated both the line absorption of gaseous CO2 at 14.5 microns when gas has lower ‘radiance’ than source (dark lines), and also line emission from gaseous CO2 when gas has higher ‘radiance’ than detector (dark lines), clearly demonstrating the spontaneous EMR emission\absorption from\to any mass is always limited by surround “radiance” at each frequency and in each direction. Just one of Gus Kirchhoff’s laws of electromagnetic radiation.!! Nowhere is any physical evidence that atmospheric CO2 (or anything else) whose ‘radiance’ is set via convection\conduction can possible absorb\emit anything in the direction of Earth’s surface.

    (Will Janoschka wrote:
    “The Climate Scammers base their ‘models’ on the fantasy two stream approximation of EMR flux as proposed in the text by R.M.Goody 1964. Such fantasy is a remarkable gross misinterpretation of prior work of S Bose (namesake for the imaginary boson). R.M. Goody had no training nor experience in electromagnetic field theory whatsoever. Your Climate Scammers have nothing to disprove, they have nothing but mouth!

    “I have literally never heard about this supposedly foundational text. It’s also in the wrong century for being foundational.”

    I wrote nothing of foundational. Atmospheric Radiation R. M. Goody 1964 the current bible for those that think spontaneous EMR radiative flux is thermodynamic rather than strictly electrodynamic. What fools!

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    • #
      Yonniestone

      Nothing like being censored in the traditional spirit of scientific debate Will! :)

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      Will Janoschka:

      Where is the 14.5 microns mentioned by Tyndall? I was aware that he demonstrated that CO2 (and some other gases) could radiate or absorb infrared, not that he could measure in microns. Indeed I believe that Angstrom didn’t publish under some years (7?) after Tyndall.

      60

      • #
        Will Janoschka

        “Where is the 14.5 microns mentioned by Tyndall?”
        Dr. Tyndall ‘discovered’ the wavelength\frequency dependence of EMR absorption\emission of various gas molecules. His LW instrumentation (bolometers) were very crude, compared to modern spectrophotometers.
        All the best!-will-

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        • #
          Graeme No.3

          So how could arstechnica.com brush you off with a reference making a false claim?

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          • #
            Will Janoschka

            “So how could arstechnica.com brush you off with a reference making a false claim?”

            Have you been over there? What an anti-Trump hoot! Most posters there are not up to the level of ‘infant’, but steadfastly remain as ‘larva’! :-)

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    • #
      RickWill

      When you belittle people you have almost shut the door on educating them. It is a matter of being patient. You would do better to be empathetic to those you are trying to educate.

      Think about what they have been taught rather than what you know. The imagery associated with photons that is taught at colleges and universities does not match reality. That is a hard nut to crack as you will find literally thousands of text books that refer to photons being radiated in all directions. There is little appreciation of brightness or second law. I doubt any climate modeller would understand these terms.

      70

      • #
        Will Janoschka

        Rick Will November 5, 2017 at 11:14 am ·

        “When you belittle people you have almost shut the door on educating them. It is a matter of being patient. You would do better to be empathetic to those you are trying to educate.”

        I have no interest in attempting to educate arrogant academic educators; their ignorance, is their problem!

        “Think about what they have been taught rather than what you know.”

        They claim to be the teachers, but have no education, experience, nor humility.

        “The imagery associated with photons that is taught at colleges and universities does not match reality. That is a hard nut to crack as you will find literally thousands of text books that refer to photons being radiated in all directions. There is little appreciation of brightness or second law.”

        The late Dr. R. Feynman did an excellent job at conveying the imaginary concept of gauge boson “photon”, for consideration. No power nor energy but only the mediator for EMR power flux transfer between reflection, transmission, or absorption of any mass, in fixed quantum units of ‘action (h), depending on frequency. Your text books are but part of the deliberate SCAM.

        “I doubt any climate modeller would understand these terms.”

        Does any climate modeler have the slightest desire for understanding?

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        • #
          RickWill

          I expect your influence would be considerably greater if you were patient enough to suffer fools.

          To balance that I have certainly been so frustrated with some that I just give up. I simply gave up on the DDWFTTW topic:
          https://www.wired.com/2010/08/ddwfttw/
          Some highly credentialed academics made utter fools of themselves on this topic. I gave up debating it until Rick Cavallaro looked me up and asked for some input on the initial design of Blackbird.

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    • #
      Will Janoschka

      numerobis Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2017 12:57 pm
      Will Janoschka wrote:
      Can you provide even one example of “physical evidence” as opposed to fantasy conjecture\computer modeling; that supports such an egregious claim?

      [quote]Sure, Tyndall 1861. http://tyndall1861.geologist-1011.mobi
      We could go back to Fourier who developed the first modern model of climate in the early 19th century, and summarized it in an 1824 publication. But he didn’t have much physical evidence for how the atmosphere could retain heat differentially based on its properties; Tyndall provided that.[/quote]

      Not some model by J. Fourier but the first attempt at measuring the latent heat of vaporization of the reversible cycle of airborne liquid water transforming to the intermediate phase (colloid-clouds) then to visibly transparent water vapor. This through the application of insolation EMR flux to the atmosphere from early morning until late afternoon. The inverse semi-cycle is from evening until early morning as that same airborne H20 releases such latent heat as IR EMR exitance to the lower radiance space. From this continual process at now measurable 2500 Joules of power storage per gram of airborne H20 comes all of Earth’s weather. An inconvenient observation deliberately ignored by the academic [strike]cabal of Climate Clowns[/strike] atmospheric researchers.
      All the best!-will-

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  • #
    • #
      Graeme#4

      Modelled on the King Island system and gets rid of “dirty diesel”? Yeah, sure. Right now, King Island is running on 992 kW diesel, 99 kW wind, 33 kW solar and -5 kW battery. With such an expensive, complex system, it still appears to be running most of the time on diesel. And wasn’t King Island the place where they had to replace the entire backup battery system?

      60

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    Yesterday (Sat) here in Sydney North West felt very cold and damp. Temp on my verandah was 15degC all day. Previous day was close to 30degC. Crazy. But not ‘global warming’ I think.
    GeoffW

    50

    • #
      el gordo

      Its the first sign of regional cooling and the summer forecast is worth a punt, wetter and cooler south of the Brisbane Line.

      On the other side of the world I predict the Thames will freeze closer to London in the foreseeable future. Similar to the 1962-63 big freeze but without the thermal stations.

      ‘The upper reaches of the River Thames also froze over, though it did not freeze in Central London, partly due to the hot effluent from two thermal power stations, Battersea and Bankside; the removal of the old multi-arched London Bridge, which had obstructed the river’s free flow, and the addition of the river embankments, made the river less likely to freeze in London than in earlier times (see River Thames frost fairs).’

      wiki

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  • #
    Ruairi

    With windmills everywhere in numbers large,
    Electric cars must queue in line for charge.

    The Paris deal, the Greens can’t do without,
    While all the rest would much prefer pull out.

    The stations powered by a coal supply,
    Are not dependent on a cloudless sky.

    The World Bank, world report on E.T.S.,
    Must think its secret workings a success.

    140

  • #
    Geoffrey Williams

    “Massive stock price reductions in the US for Tesla after factory layoffs”
    I think people are waking up to the smell of ‘musk’.
    The odour is particularly bad in places like S.A.
    Regards GeoffW

    110

    • #
      toorightmate

      Times get very tough when the Obama handouts dry up.

      110

    • #
      Dennis

      An electrifying situation.

      40

    • #
      Graeme No.3

      In the WE Australian (at least in SA) is a handout about the wonders of Adelaide. Pages 4 and 5 extoll the wonders of solar heat and hydrogen fuel.
      The new “HUGE” solar heat plant near Pt. Augusta is going to produce “more than 500 GWh per annum…. enough for 90,000 homes, day and night”. That works out at 2.7kWh per day for each house. The australian average is more like 18kWh per day.
      Electricity rationing coming, or poor arithmetic?

      HEALTH WARNING for TonyfronOz
      Incidentally that output requires the plant to work at maximum capacity for 10.5 hours a day, every day of the year.

      Then the joys of hydrogen fueled busses and a new auto industry building hydrogen type cars for export once the State starts generating lots of cheap hydrogen gas from CHEAP renewable energy. (And once the CSIRO finishes its trials in 2 years on technology enabling the gas to be converted into ammonia so it can be transported). Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis is reported as enthusiastic about this development. One can only hope that the coming election in March results in someone less gullible taking charge.

      40

  • #
    el gordo

    The government has all the VFT proposals and yet sits on its hands, waiting for an opportune time.

    Decentralisation becomes the big issue, because two-thirds of Sydneysiders reckon the city is ‘full up’. So enticing the annual 100,000 new arrivals to go west of the Great Divide might not work, but its the best chance we have to avoid ripping up the social fabric.

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/australias-highspeed-rail-plan-is-a-blow-to-housing-affordability-20170809-gxpjzi/

    40

    • #
      Dennis

      A mining engineer I was travelling with on an overseas flight explained his Sydney Basin plan of drilling tunnels beneath the Great Dividing Range west of Sydney: road, railway and sewage.

      Reduce the highway traffic through the Blue Mountains residential and tourism areas to prove much faster and shorter road and rail access to the western side, leave urban rail for commuters above and pump sewage to sewage farms for conversion into irrigation water and fertiliser for agricultural purposes on the western slopes and plains. And close the sewage ocean outfalls.

      His idea would allow extension of the Sydney population beyond the Sydney Basin without creating a high density, high rise suburbia.

      50

      • #
        Dennis

        to provide much faster …

        30

        • #
          el gordo

          Sydney sandstone is ideal for tunnel diggers, a piece of cake, but still the most expensive part of the strategy. Once though the mountains onto the Central Tablelands its easy sailing.

          They would use four diggers and meet in the middle, maybe five years to complete the track from Sydney to woop woop.

          Where would you put the stations?

          30

        • #
          • #
            Dennis

            I agree, and then getting to the Elvis Festival would be faster for all the Elvis people.

            lol

            “return to sender …..” or Central.

            50

          • #
            Dennis

            The link could also service the Badgery’s Creek Airport in western Sydney not far from Liverpool, maybe with a branch line, and the huge freight terminal being constructed at Chipping Norton between Liverpool and Bankstown Airport, Chris Corrigan group the waterside dispute company former CEO.

            30

            • #
              toorightmate

              Dennis,
              Wake up to yourself.
              Have you been smoking dope again.
              Liverpool is in bloody England.

              30

              • #
                Dennis

                Different city, different beetles Toorightmate.

                But at least we don’t have Hartlepool and rotten people who hung a monkey because they suspect from its chatter that it was a French spy.

                30

            • #
              el gordo

              Central to the new airport, then Katoomba (primarily for the tourist trade), avoiding Lithgow and straight onto Vittoria (Gough Whitlam’s white elephant) where a new city could be established.

              Land capture Beijing style,

              30

            • #
              el gordo

              What about we take it from Badgery’s Creek International Airport and turn our backs on the Sydney centric mindset of Premier Gladys. They are going ahead with their under the harbour grand plan.

              Its roughly 50 kilometres from the airport to Medlow Bath, four borers tunnelling at 30 to 35 metres per day. While this is happening the flat line west could be completed.

              Shouldn’t cost more than a few billion dollars.

              20

  • #
    Lance

    Something for all to ponder and forward to their Green friends.

    “Although renewable energy capacity has grown by leaps and bounds over the last three decades (wind power capacity grew on average 24.3 percent per year since 1990, and solar by 46.2 percent), renewable energy still generates an insignificant proportion of mankind’s power (0.46%) , and their rapid growth is not sustainable.”

    http://lidblog.com/impossible-for-renewable-energy/

    100

  • #
    RickWill

    The weather data indicates Adelaide had a mild spring day on Saturday with light to moderate winds:
    https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgmIXdL7M2wGuJJy-
    Temperature reached 20C.

    The solar panels had a fair day with data showing a peak of 60% capacity:
    https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgmBGCFlow2jtMXuX

    There is enough solar output now that it is impacting on the capacity factor of the wind turbines and rising fast enough that the gas turbines cannot respond fast enough so prices are going negative for a reasonable period. On Saturday the price was negative for a three hour period:
    https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgl-ArJFqs2Bg_obN

    It appears the gas plant load must stay above 300MW for stability reasons. That required the wind generators being capped at around 1000MW despite the Victorian link working above rated capacity peaking at 675MW:
    https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgmHOLXChff4ulmwb
    The means of regulating the wind here appears to on-off with the Waterloo Wind Farm coming off line and back on as the wind eased through the afternoon.

    If the SA grid was stand alone the wind generators would have been reduced to around 300MW despite wind enabling around 1200MW from the installed capacity of 1700MW.

    These are the early indicators of how the capacity factor reduces as the overbuild increases to enable high market share. It becomes extremely difficult to justify a wind generator when the capacity factor is system constrained to a value in the low teens.

    With the pace of solar installation in SA it is possible within a few years that the wind generators will have days when they are not permitted to send power out during periods of good sunshine.

    If nothing else these sort of days should be making the sponsors of the grid scale wind and solar projects begin to understand why there should be no grid scale wind and solar. Connecting these generators to the grid was a mistake. It was the start of the end game for the grid.

    90

  • #
    toorightmate

    A bit of interest this week in the JFK assassination files.
    Interesting to note that JFK was having Martin Luther King investigated for all sorts of seedy reasons. No doubt this action will somehow eventually be attributed to Trump.

    50

  • #
    clipe

    Here is a point and shoot (sony) snapshot from a few years ago.

    Question: Is the aircraft turning, or are upper air currents bending the contrails?

    I live 5 mins, as the crow flies, northwest of YYZ so tend to believe the aircraft is changing headings.

    30

    • #
      Dennis

      Around 2003 when I was living in country Queensland on the Fraser Island coast a small group of us were enjoying a social occasion and meal sitting on the back verandah of a Queenslander house on tall stumps. A neighbour called out for us to look at the night sky and immediately we all spotted 4 red not flashing lights travelling from south east to north west at very high speed. They were in formation of 1 lead 2 side by side and 1 rear.

      There was no other identifiable feature, just the 4 red lights.

      About an hour later another 4 red lights travelling in the same direction appeared and disappeared quickly. An attempt at photographing them failed as the image was very poor.

      That was a two off experience never to be repeated despite many other get togethers at the same house for several years afterwards.

      20

      • #
        • #
          Dennis

          Within the last couple of years of Concorde flights I watched one land at the old original and spectacular landing zone Hong Kong Airport. It was delivering passengers of a cruise ship and collecting passengers returning to the UK.

          That was great to watch as it banked hard right to quickly straighten up and descend in a steep dive to land.

          30

        • #
          Annie

          We used to see and hear Concorde fly over Cyprus in the days it flew to Bahrain. The boom was a lot quieter than on that video. My mother loved to check its timing (usually 11.05 am) after it took off from LHR en route to the USA.
          We saw the British prototype on her maiden flight from Filton to Fairford, accompanied by a Canberra.
          My very big regret is that I never flew in her. My early favourite aircraft was the Vickers VC 10 and nowadays is the Airbus A380.

          30

          • #
            Annie

            Couldn’t see much of course!

            30

            • #
              Peter C

              “my early favourite aircraft was the Vickers VC 10″

              It is hard to get me to pass an air museum without going in. A few years back I spent a day at Duxford (UK). I had the chance to walk though a VC10 and also a Comet 4. The thing that struck me was the level of comfort (or rather lack of it) in the first class cabin. It would not pass in international economy these days.

              The view out the window however has not improved over the years.

              30

              • #
                Annie

                The first VC 10s I flew in were RAF ones with well-spaced backwards-facing seats. I also flew on a BOAC one and the ordinary seats felt reasonably spacious. How things change! The one and only time I flew KLM it was so cramped and over-heated that a Dutch lady and I stood for most of the flight near the rear where there were floor-level air vents to cool our feet and grab handles to hold onto when therecwas a bit of turbulence! Ye gods!
                Now we are older, and we are both pretty tall, it is a blessing to have a pilot son and have the chance of better seats for long haul. Indeed, I would stop flying long haul if I could only manage economy…dangerous to health for tall people.

                20

  • #
    David Maddison

    I think of all the world’s governments, Australian governments are by far the biggest believers in the lie of anthropogenic global warming and the most commited to it, that commitment causing the destruction of the economy.

    Do you agree?

    121

    • #
      robert rosicka

      I don’t know if they believe it as much as if they don’t pander to the green / labor / watermelon voter they lose inner city seats and there must be a lot of seats for them to be worried .

      40

    • #
      Dennis

      Yes, my theory is that we are in a sense isolated, a wealthy country even if it does not seem that way at times, a very small population of 24 million occupying a land mass equivalent to the USA in area and just 2 per cent of the global economy. And natural asset rich ranking within the top ten of nations.

      We also have a UK communist/socialist unionist migrant history, noting that the socialist Fabian Society (new world order, inevitability of gradualness and other slogans) was established in England during the late 1800s. And now there is the socialist Australian Fabian Society affiliated with the UK parent. The Australian Labor Party is related to the UK and NZ Labour Party. The ALP Constitution features high on the list that the ALP is a party of socialism objectives. The former Prime Minister Gillard who led Labor started her Socialist Form which was merged with the Australian Fabian Society just before she was appointed Deputy Leader to Opposition Leader Rudd.

      When the United Nations was established after WW2 the Australian Labor Attorney General Evatt, a lawyer, handed his opinion to his comrades (he was communist) who were infiltrating the UN as headquarters for the new world order campaign, it was to arrange for as many treaties as possible with UN member nation governments covering new world order agenda items. The purpose was to enable socialist governments when the time was right to allow the UN to enforce Treaty items and ignore sovereignty of nations. In other words proceed without needing to hold a referendum, as in joining a one world government or parliament. The UN has grown beyond it’s charter as POTUS Trump pointed out in his recent address at the UN. He also said the UN was too big and was too interfering in individual nation’s affairs.

      Obviously the EU (first EEU) is a first attempt at creating a no borders central government model. Australia already has Closer Economic Relations with New Zealand and that country sends delegates to Australian Constitutional Conventions held from time to time.

      Therefore, ANZ appears to be a smallish target to add to the EU empire?

      When Labor here introduced carbon tax with 10 per cent of revenue directed to the UN Minister Combet was forced by a journalist to admit that next would be emissions trading, Australia joined with the EU ETS. Australia recently signed a free trade agreement with the EU, and began sending singers to the Eurovision Contest a few years ago for the first time.

      Consider the not publicised implementation of UN Agenda 21 throughout Australia via state and local government councils, and federal government. Local councils are being merged to not be local. Each state has a venue for Agenda 21 council combined council meetings and cooperation. Farmers were among the first businesses to feel the pain of the green tape.

      As repeated here from time to time, when he was Prime Minister Tony Abbott said in 2015 that he will not stand for socialism masquerading as environmentalism. And we all know that he was targeted, Christopher Monckton forecast that he would be.

      There is a lot more to the jigsaw puzzle of new world order politics.

      111

    • #
      Robber

      Politicians no longer have beliefs. Try checking the Liberal Party Website for what the Party should stand for:
      – a lean government
      – nurtures and encourages its citizens through incentive, rather than putting limits on people through the punishing disincentives of burdensome taxes
      – basic freedoms of parliamentary democracy – the freedom of thought, worship, speech and association.
      – government should not compete with an efficient private sector (NBN, NDIS)?
      – we simply believe in individual freedom and free enterprise.

      All pollies now consider is how to get re-elected. And as that means pandering to the more than 50% of voters who get government handouts, Australia has growing debt and is heading for recession.

      50

  • #
    David Maddison

    Australia’s total government is now over $753 billion and going up by about one billion per week.

    Why isn’t this disastrous fact of any concern to many?

    http://www.australiandebtclock.com.au/

    131

    • #
      RickWill

      As far as I can determine all the federal government debt is in AUD so it does not matter. The RBA can produce AUD at zero cost meaning the government can never go broke. The Japanese government was proven this over the last 30+ years. Its debt has levelled out at equivalent of USD10tr.

      This link shows average age of various countries:
      http://world.bymap.org/MedianAge.html
      Most advanced countries become net savers when the average age reaches 38. Australia has slightly lower propensity for saving but as the population ages there should be increasing government debt and a reduction in the foreign net debt. Japan has massive foreign reserves and they are still increasing foreign reserves.

      In Australia superannuation forces transfer of money from government to the population. The population’s savings have to come from the government or from overseas through other countries buying AUDs to cover trade deficits. However Australia has a net foreign debt so all savings come from government.

      What DOES MATTER is the net foreign debt. It nudged over AUD1tr in the March quarter but was reduced to AUD990bn in the June quarter. This chart shows the historic trend in terms of %GDP:
      https://i0.wp.com/bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Australia_Net_Foreign_Debt_PC_GDP_1989_2016.jpg

      There are the abs numbers:
      http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/5302.0

      Some of the deals that State governments make might be more precarious. I do not think SA and Tassie would exist in present form without large transfers from other states. Not sure what obligations they have in terms of foreign currency debt. Foreign currency debt is the issue particularly if day-to-day operations depend on it.

      50

      • #
        Dennis

        Also, Treasurer Peter Costello pointed out when most of Australia’s Gold Bar reserves were sold, and some still in a UK Government vault stored there for the Australian Government, that Australia has substantial known Gold reserves that can be mined to produce more Gold Bars if needed.

        Add that to the many other natural resources of minerals and energy.

        20

    • #
      Dennis

      Yes, but note that when Abbott and Hockey announced the budget crisis, following the audit they commissioned of the last Labor Budget, federal debt was projected if the Labor debt creation rate continued to reach $670 billion by 2017. It is now $505 billion I understand, gross debt.

      Be careful when looking at debt figures because gross is not always used, most often the lower net debt is shown which is real gross debt with assets subtracted to show net debt. Assets such as $120 billion Future Fund investment, revenue used to pay public service pensions rather than making provision budget to budget. Treasurer Costello and Prime Minister Howard established the Fund.

      20

    • #

      I care. Endlessly twisted up world.
      According to Danish statistician Dr. Bjorn Lomborg, the President of the Copenhagen Consensus Center: “We will spend at least one hundred trillion dollars in order to reduce the temperature─ by the end of the century─ by a grand total of three tenths of one degree…the equivalent of postponing warming by less than four years…Again, that is using the UN’s own climate prediction model.” https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/global-warming-globalist-propaganda-trillion-dollar-year-anant-goel

      40

  • #

    I was going to wait until 2PM Sunday when my daily data and analysis is scheduled to be posted at my home site, but this is just curious (and a little delicious) enough to make a comment early here.

    I’m willing to bet that you’ll hear all sorts of claims coming out of South Australia about how rooftop solar power is driving the daytime power consumption lower, because this power doesn’t show up as actual generation anywhere, because it comes from ‘behind the meter’.

    I have explained often that Load Curves for power consumption have two profiles of the way they look, a cooler Months profile with the morning peak and the evening peak, and a pronounced dip between the two peaks, and the warmer months profile with its one mid afternoon peak for power consumption.

    Over the last two weeks, I have noticed that daytime power consumption in South Australia is lower, and here I mean a lot lower, considering South Australia is a low consumer of electricity, by percentage when it comes to the larger States, with SA only consuming around 6.25% of the Australian total power consumption.

    The claims you may hear, saying that rooftop solar power is driving total power generation lower will be furphies and can easily be countered.

    Now, you may think that because we are moving towards the warmer Months, then it stands to reason that rooftop solar power would be generating more, and that has an element of truth, but be aware that when it comes to rooftop solar power, it works on the light (insolation) and not the heat, eg, longer hours and the peak generation from the panels is ‘slightly’ higher in those warmer Months.

    However, that daytime between peaks power consumption has been pretty much consistently around 400 to 500MW lower, and that does not happen so quickly as it has happened here. Perhaps rooftop solar might lower it (and be aware that would happen gradually, incrementally lower, probably only noticeable after a few weeks) by 50 to 100MW maybe, and that might even be a stretch, but 400 to 500MW, and that’s just curious.

    So then, think a little about it.

    What happened a couple of weeks back?

    Why, the Holden factory closed down didn’t it.

    Now there goes a large daytime power consumer, a large Industry, and all the backing industries behind it, and that’s when that period of the dip between the peaks started to drop off.

    So then, to lower a State’s power consumption, all you really need to do is to drive Industry out of the power consumption ‘business’, and voila, power generation drops, not because rooftop solar has, umm, ‘suddenly’ taken over. It may look like that because of the hours of when that fall has been occurring, but the low time for Base Load has remained pretty much similar, as has overnight power consumption, but during the main working day period, that consumption has indeed fallen by what seems that large amount, by comparison.

    Incidentally, because it was indeed curious to me, I have been keeping a watch on power consumption figures at the AEMO site and it seems that South Australia’s percentage of power consumption has fallen from the previous amount around 6.25% to only around 5% or so now.

    Drive away the large consumers, and you can then make up an argument that rooftop solar is driving generation lower, but there always seems to be a perfectly rational explanation that shoots that theory to shreds.

    I’ll come back later with the link to the data and analysis for this week.

    Tony.

    200

    • #
      Geoffrey Williams

      Really important observation Tony and well explained.
      Regards GeoffW

      110

    • #
      robert rosicka

      Thanks Tony , I have read Rick Will’s post at #19 above and have been watching what goes on in SA on the AEMO dashboard and have noticed the drop but to me it started before Holden closed and is also evident when the wind drops off .
      Maybe I should have checked the widget for the breakup of power produced .
      Certainly a great way for a state to become 100% reliable on renewable energy , get rid of all manufacturing and business which should also see a drop in the states population as they go to other states looking for work .
      If SA keeps going the way they are they might be able to power the whole state with a couple of 12 volt car batteries .

      110

    • #
      David Maddison

      Thanks for confirming what I have always been saying Tony.

      Australia will likely avoid widespread grid failure as more and more industry shuts down due to high power prices and other reasons like greedy unions and excessive government regulation etc..

      This is indeed unfortunate because without a major multi day grid outage the sheeple won’t get angry enough to demand something be done about it.

      Meanwhile Australia’s government debt goes up by around $1 billion per week, now over $753 billion as I posted above and rapidly becoming unserviceable and in any case not able to be repaid in any reasonable amount of time as we are producing and exporting less – EXCEPT for gas and coal which we are willing to sell to others but not use ourselves.

      It’s sickening.

      81

    • #
      RickWill

      On Saturday the measured solar was a significant components of the SA demand; say 450MW out of 1150MW between 10am and 4pm:
      https://1drv.ms/i/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNgmNlO9p53aJ08bTn
      So solar is supplying 40% of the load. It peaked at 60% capacity so will be doing more as the sun gets higher but then demand will go up as air-conditioners kick in.

      That does not include behind the meter supply to households and businesses with the rooftop solar. Maybe 20% more would be used internally on a Saturday with larger number of people at home through the day.

      The rooftop solar supply in SA has reached the level where it is contributing to instability. The gas generation has to run above 300MW for stability leaving just 400MW for wind to supply. It was capable of around 1200MW early in the day. Even with export maxed out at 675MW the wind was still throttled when the sun kicked in. Prices were negative for 3 hours.

      50

      • #
        robert rosicka

        Yes they can’t exactly throttle back the solar connections can they but wind and gas yes but only so much with gas before stability becomes an issue .
        Wonder if any thought whatsoever went into all this way back before wind and solar was thrust upon us ?

        40

        • #
          David Maddison

          No, thought bubbles of scientifically illiterate politicians now routinely get turned into multibillion dollar schemes without any engineering and/or economic analysis. Eg “renewables”, Snowy Hydro 2.0, NBN, submarine project, NDIS etc..

          80

        • #
          RickWill

          If it was thought through there would be no wind or solar connected to the grid.

          Rooftop solar currently makes sense in SA – most expensive grid power in the developed world. It also makes sense in other states where the grid connection is not at the premises of a low intensity household or very remote energy intensive business.

          As soon as ANY wind or solar was connected to the grid as an intermittent generator it degraded the grid and costs started increasing.

          Rather than getting more economically viable, wind and solar have primarily put effort into mining subsidies. They have ridden the CD gravy train with first class tickets. If subsidies are removed they will collapse economically.

          The mistake was permitting intermittent generation on the grid. Pre 1990 no one but State governments had the right to generate power into the grid and they were very wary of dirty heavy loads. Mines at the extremity of the grid required permission to start large loads like mine winders and draglines to ensure there was enough reserve and voltage control connected.

          50

    • #
      Robber

      Tony, there also seems to be a strange midnight peak in demand in SA. Thoughts?

      30

      • #

        Robber.

        That’s the off peak hot water systems kicking in.

        Note how it appears to ‘look’ larger in South Australia on that load curve for consumption, but that’s just scale, as SA consumes 6.25% sorry 5% now of Australia’s total power consumption.

        Note how it’s a spike there, so when people say that off peak hot water is designed to use power at night when those coal fired plants need you to use their excess power, be fully aware that it only amounts to around 10% max for that respective State, and then only a spike for an hour or two.

        It’s also there on other State’s load curves to a lesser degree, because their Load Curves are much larger, so the scale seems smaller, but it’s still there.

        Tony.

        60

        • #

          Just on that scale thing, you know how the South Australian Government is just so proud that they have 40% or so of the generated power in their WHOLE STATE coming from renewables, think of it like this.

          That’s 40% of around 6% of Australia’s generated power, so that’s really only 2.4% of Australia’s generated power.

          That’s some perspective for you.

          Tony.

          40

    • #

      Here’s the link to this week’s data and analysis for the Base Load Series, for those of you who wish to read it:

      Australian Base Load Electrical Power – Week Ending 4th November 2017

      Tony.

      70

  • #
    Michael Reed

    In Australia there is an interesting combination circumstances being played out which
    inevitablely lead to economic downturn.Firstly the voting public who have little time to
    try and fathom what the hell is going on with the increasing cost of electricity .Then there
    is Turnbull and Frydenberg with their ridiculous energy plans that will lead to a reduction in
    Electricity bills of $100 over a decade.At this point please note that the politicians that peddle
    this nonsense are in no really affected financially by the cost of rising energy .Remember they
    are part of the elite class with incomes at a minimum of three times the national average and
    other assets in real estate to back them up together with amazingly generous superannuation .Secondly there are manufactures and businesses
    who with increasing energy costs are putting off workers or moving their interests to other
    locations overseas where both of these overheads are much lower.Thirdly total government
    debt is becoming a real problem that no one is mentioning $753 billion and counting.Remember
    the last time our credit rating was reviewed it almost went from triple A to double A if this happens
    next time the cost of this debt will increase and accelerate.The one big elephant in the room
    seems to be the RET which no seems to understand or want to do anything about because it
    seems virtuous to say Renewable Energy Target.The only target that this inequitable legislation
    is about is shooting a monstrous hole right through the Australian economy..All of this taken
    together is a recipe for a national economic disaster that wiill happen in the not too distant future
    and then when it’s too late some political sanity may prevail out of the misery that never ever should have been allowed to happen.Mike Reed

    100

  • #
    Geoff Sherrington

    Here is a good laugh for the weekend, but keep your eye on the topic, which is climate education for the masses. Geoff
    http://www.geoffstuff.com/weather thickness13.mp4

    50

    • #
      Andrew McRae

      I wrote a longer comment that overanalysed her problem, then scrubbed out that comment and replaced it with this:
      Well spotted, Geoff, laughter accomplished.

      20

    • #
      RickWill

      I assume it is a set up otherwise it would not have been filmed. She plays the role well.

      00

      • #
        Peter C

        Well she has a point. The Sun Shines in southern Spain and it is hotter there.

        And it is in fact a bit closer to the Sun because the the equater is closer to the Sun than Northern latitudes are.

        But the real point is that it might be impossible to explain Climate Change Skepticism to normal people.

        10

  • #
    pat

    every time I hear how this year will be the hottest ever blah blah, it’s fun to do a search of terms like “mild summer”, e.g.

    Mild weather in third quarter reduces Eversource Energy earnings
    New Haven Register-2 Nov. 2017
    Judge said cooling degree days during the third quarter this year were down nearly 34 percent from the same period in 2016. Cooling degree days are the number of degrees that the daily average temperature is above 65 and people start to use air-conditioning to cool their buildings…
    The mild late summer weather also had an impact on the utility’s electric distribution and generation earnings, which decreased by 7.4 percent to $157.5 million in the third quarter of this year…

    Exelon’s (EXC) CEO Chris Crane on Q3 2017 Results – Earnings …
    Seeking Alpha-2 Nov. 2017
    Strong utility and Genco performance more than offset headwinds from the mild summer weather that impacted our PECO

    Mild summer hits Unitil’s third-quarter income
    New Hampshire Business Review-30 Oct. 2017
    That’s $1.2 million less than last year, primarily due to a relatively mild summer as well higher operating costs

    Rainy summer puts Germans off their beer – Yahoo Lifestyle Singapore
    Yahoo Singapore News-30 Oct. 2017
    A rainy, mild summer lacking big sporting events to booze along to has put Germans off their world-famous beer

    40

  • #
    pat

    Prince William branded a hypocrite for warning world is over-populated while awaiting arrival of third child
    Mirror.co.uk· Nov 4, 2017

    Prince William concerned at impact of population growth on wildlife
    New Zealand Herald· Nov 4, 2017

    not recommended for listening:

    4 Nov: AUDIO: 53mins: BBC: NewshourExtra: Do We Need Economic Growth?
    Donald Trump has said his proposed tax cuts will be ‘rocket fuel’ for the US economy. He is the latest in a long line of political leaders chasing economic growth as a key policy objective. We are told again and again that GDP – Gross Domestic Product – growth is good for the economy; it lifts people out of poverty, provides jobs and investment, and improves lives. While there is general agreement about the need for growth in the developing world, what about the costs of growth in the rich world? Is growth accelerating environmental damage? Is it causing greater inequality?

    Owen Bennett Jones is joined by Tim Jackson from the Centre for Sustainable Prosperity, University of Surrey; Daniel Ben Ami – author of Ferraris for All: In defence of Economic Progress; Jared Bernstein, economic adviser to President Barack Obama; and Annie Quick of the ***New Economics Foundation, to discuss who really benefits from growth and whether we can have prosperity without it.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w3csvqg5

    ***Wikipedia: New Economics Foundation
    The Foundation was founded in 1986 by the leaders of The Other Economic Summit (TOES) with the aim of working for a “new model of wealth creation, based on equality, diversity and economic stability”…
    NEF is a registered charity and is funded by individual supporters, public finance businesses and international grant-giving bodies…
    The Foundation’s public events attract well-known speakers…
    In July 2006, the Foundation launched the Happy Planet Index…
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Economics_Foundation

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    Dennis

    Relax folks, according to one of those blogger pests UN Agenda is ll about Christianity.

    Just thought I would share it with you.

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    Dennis

    UN Agenda 21 is all about

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    Roger

    A presenter on LBC Radio, Ian Payne, made the US National Climate Assessment the subject of his phone in (3-6pm GMT 4th Nov).

    Making wild statements such as ‘we are living in the hottest times civilisation has ever seen’ and after talking of Carbon in the atmosphere asking ‘why are we still putting this poison in the air?’.

    He kept saying he wanted sceptics/deniers (both terms used) to phone in and explain why the didn’t believe man was increasing temperatures. During the hour there were many eco-activists on the phone in but just one sceptic who said he didn’t believe it and thought it was all to get people to switch from hydrocarbon fuels to electric as oil would run out in a few years – but politicians weren’t saying that to avoid panic.

    I called 20mins before end of prog, explained to researcher he was way off – Minoan, Roman and Medieval Warm Periods; end of Little Ice Age chosen as start point to ‘show’ how much warming is anthropogenic etc etc. Called me back and then Left on hold until end of section when researcher apologised they had run out of time.

    I have sent a long message (9783 characters) to Ian Payne explaining why he is ill-informed covering warm periods, LIA, 20% increase in global vegetation and shrinking deserts (NASA), Maurice Strong with his quotes explaining why Global Warming was invented, Water Vapour and how this dwarfs CO2 as a greenhouse gas (Christie) etc, Paris Climate Agreement and how this increases emissions by 46% – Russia doubling and India trebling theirs etc .

    You can find him and a catchup / podcast of today’s programme here http://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/ian-payne/

    Maybe others might like to listen to this and write to him with your own comments, corrections or observations ??? You can do through that web page.

    I’m going to look into making a complaint about misleading listeners.

    LBC has very high audience figures – not just from UK but across Europe and the USA – so correcting this is important.

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    David Maddison

    What do you think will happen first?

    The economy of Australia will be destroyed due to renewal madness causing excessive energy prices.

    Australia will come to its senses about renewables and remove all subsidies allowing the industry to collapse or possibly survive if they can find enough Greens to sell their expensive and unreliable product to.

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      toorightmate

      I believe the destruction will continue until we gain a LEADER who has the interests of Australians at heart (no him or herself).

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        Dennis

        I have detected movement at the station known as the political arena, a bunch of conservatives speaking out in support of the Tony Abbott conservative side views and I believe they are preparing to do battle. And they might not bother to attempt to clean out the rats nest or revive a now badly tarnished brand.

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          Yonniestone

          Hey Harley Davidson was saved and reinvented in the early 80′s with the help of President Reagan reinstating motorcycle import tariffs so all we need is the LNP to provide government assistance for itself to pay off……..oh forget it.

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        Serp

        Ian Plimer makes exactly that point on page 43 of his latest book:

        “In Australian politics, there is a huge vacuum for a real leader to fill.”

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    pat

    3 Nov: Daily Caller: Michael Bastasch: The Media Is ‘100% Wrong’ About This Aspect Of The Latest Climate Change Report
    The newly-released National Climate Assessment (NCA) has sparked a tidal wave of media coverage, with a particular focus on how it contradicts the Trump administration’s stance on global warming…
    The New York Times, for example, reported “that every part of the country has been touched by warming, from droughts in the Southeast to flooding in the Midwest to a worrying rise in air and ground temperatures in Alaska, and conditions will continue to worsen.”
    But that is not correct, according to University of Colorado professor Roger Pielke, Jr., an expert on extreme weather trends and natural disaster costs…READ ON
    http://dailycaller.com/2017/11/03/the-media-is-100-wrong-about-this-aspect-of-the-latest-climate-change-report/

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    David Maddison

    It is both strange and tragic that some of Australia’s greatest natural treasures such as uranium, coal and gas are allowed to be exported but not used locally (uranium) and restricted in their use due to “renewables” madness (coal and gas).

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      Graeme#4

      I often wonder whether property owners would be more amenable to have gas wells on their properties if they received royalties from the gas produced, as I believe occurs in the U.S.

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    David Maddison

    Of the numerous evil things Turnbull has done, banning incandescent light globes is certainly one of them.

    Incan globes are certainly not as environmentally unfriendly as claimed because so few resources were used making them compared to the complex electronics in compact fluorescents or LEDs and for half the year the heat they generated was not wasted. Also, because of the simple materials incans would be recyclable.

    I am also not convinced compact fluorescents last as long as claimed plus they contain mercury.

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    pat

    5 Nov: GovernmentNews: WA urged to go it alone on renewables
    By Graeme Philipson
    Influential energy and climate economist Professor Ross Garnaut says Western Australia should adopt a state based emissions intensity scheme. This is at odds with the WA Government’s preferred strategy.
    Professor Garnaut said WA could lead the world as a clean energy superpower. He believes its vast resources of renewable energy, and its isolation from the National Energy Market (NEM), present unique opportunities for the state to gain a global competitive advantage by transitioning to high levels of renewable energy, even as the rest of Australia “wallows in incoherent energy and emissions policy.”

    With the best renewable energy resources globally, Australia is the natural home for energy intensive industry investment in carbon-constrained world, said Professor Garnaut, speaking at a energy conference at Perth’s Murdoch University.
    “Australia has the potential to become an energy superpower in the low carbon world economy, but it needs to shake off the shackles of those with ideological or vested interest in the old ways of supplying energy,” he said…

    Conservation Council of WA Director Piers Verstegen said, “With national energy and climate policy in chaos, it is clear that WA needs to go it alone. The good news is that this can deliver a strong advantage for WA by attracting new jobs and investment to our state.
    “Professor Garnaut’s recommended ETS is an example of policy that could be adopted now by the WA Government to drive the transition to affordable renewable energy, and make our state a leader in the global clean energy economy of the future.”…
    https://www.governmentnews.com.au/2017/11/wa-urged-go-alone-renewables/

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      Graeme#4

      No, no, NO!! WA is not part of the national grid, thank goodness, and we are doing just fine with our mix of mostly coal and gas with reasonable electricity prices. Don’t touch anything! And certainly don’t introduce more renewables to the mix.

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    pat

    4 Nov: WhitsundayTimes: Adani loan: “Just a campaign storm in an election teacup”
    by Peter Carruthers
    SINCE Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s sensationally announced she would veto federal funding for a rail line connecting Abbot Point and the proposed Carmichael Mine, the ALP candidate for the seat of Burdekin has told Adani to just “get on with (the mine) anyway”.

    Mike Bunker cited in a statement today the multiple times the Indian mining company has stated it does not need the controversial $1 billion National Australia Infrastructure Facility loan from the Federal Government to build the rail line…
    Mr Brunker, a former coal worker and union boss, offered stronger support for the mine.
    He said the people of Bowen strongly supported the mine.
    “So all this talk about the NAIF loan is just a campaign storm in an election teacup,” he said.
    “We have heard in recent weeks from Adani management that the federal NAIF loan is not required by them to get this project off the ground, so I’m calling on them to get it moving and get hiring.”..
    https://www.whitsundaytimes.com.au/news/brunker-tells-adani-to-get-on-with-it-after-alp-lo/3257191/

    4 Nov: NYT: Brad Plumer: A Climate Science Report That Changes Minds? Don’t Bet on It
    White House aides said that President Trump, who spent much of Friday in the air on his way to meetings in Asia, was barely aware of the report’s existence…
    “I think there are a range of attitudes and sentiments within the administration about causes of and risks associated with climate change,” said Michael McKenna, a Republican energy lobbyist and adviser to the Trump transition. “But two things everyone seems to share are a concern that climate sensitivity is overblown and a sturdy skepticism about any and all possible ‘remedies’ that have been proposed.”
    “I don’t see where this report is going to alter either of those sentiments,” he said. “Nor do I think it should.”…
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/04/climate/trump-climate-change-report.html

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    pat

    4 Nov: TownsvilleBulletin: Regional leaders dismayed over Labor move to veto Adani loan
    by TONY RAGGATT
    LABOR Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk has been accused of casting adrift thousands of jobs in regional Queensland for the sake of one job in Brisbane – Deputy Premier Jackie Trad’s.
    As news circulated of Ms Palaszczuk’s move for the state to veto a federal loan to Adani’s Carmichael coal mine rail project, regional leaders reacted with shock and dismay…

    “She is doing it to protect Jackie Trad and keep the seat of South Brisbane from falling into the hands of the Greens,” Mr Christensen said…
    “For the sake of one person’s job, the Deputy Premier’s in South Brisbane, it looks like thousands of job throughout North and Central Queensland are just being cast adrift. I hope not.”

    Labor candidate for the Burdekin Mike Brunker broke ranks with his party, calling on the Premier to investigate other options.
    He believed the Federal Government could provide a loan direct to Adani. He said for the sake of the thousands of people relying on the jobs there had to be other options.
    “I’m surprised we can even veto the loan, that’s a surprise to me,” Mr Brunker said…

    LNP Leader Tim Nicholls rejected suggestions of an LNP smear campaign.
    “I know nothing of the rumours the Premier is referring to. I heard about them through the media just like thousands of other Queenslanders,” Mr Nicholls said.
    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation deputy leader Sam Cox, also a candidate for Burdekin, said the Labor Government had put the reputation of the coal industry at risk through its incompetence…
    Mr Cox said One Nation had always maintained that the Commonwealth should build and own the Galilee rail line.

    Katter’s Australian Party MP Robbie Katter said they had always maintained the state should build the rail line to service all the potential mines in the Galilee Basin.
    He wished Labor were as determined to build the Galilee rail line as they were to build the much more expensive 12km Cross River Rail tunnel in Brisbane.

    COMMENT BY RAY: There you have it folks, this is nothing more than a ploy to save the excruciating J Triad, at this time she does not have the power to veto the loan, because the Parliament is in caretaker mode, and the Libs have to agree with the veto, never gunna happen, so a vote for Labor is a vote for unemployment, a vote for the Libs will see the loan go ahead and Employment increase, Its time to think of others, think of all those families who can live a better life because of all these jobs to be created, its time to stop thinking of yourself and your petty little beliefs, vote Labor Last.

    COMMENT BY FRANK: Poor old Brunker – now he says he supports Adani and coal mining – a few days back he said he didn’t support coal fired power stations and had a shot at his opponents for being hypocrites! This is why the ALP in Qld have to go and he won’t succeed as an ALP candidate yet again – they are all over the place!!!
    http://www.townsvillebulletin.com.au/news/regional-leaders-dismayed-over-labor-move-to-veto-adani-loan/news-story/173211efa367e07024d9d70cd6a90ca3

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      robert rosicka

      The palacechook said it was to stop a possible conflict of interest because her partner worked on the proposal as an employee of price Waterhouse, I wonder how many other govt proposals were worked on by the same company ?

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    In Energy La-La Land (aka Germany), regulators now seek the registration of all electrical power providers (article in German).

    The author explains that one must be registered to supply power to end users but the legislation is so poorly drafted, that it places no lower limit on the amount provided; nor the energy being provided with compensation/for profit/or not!

    Thus, householders now need to register as a provider if a tradie needs to plug their tools into a power outlet of the home.

    12. ‘electricity supplier’ means any natural or legal person who supplies electrical power to others,

    Such are required to register in the market master data registry as of July 1st, 2017. Because. Just because.
    Just because their renewable energy and energy market legislative changes of last December require this.

    But wait… there’s more! Every electrical installation is to be registered. There appears to be no exclusion for traffic or street lights. And special requirements for those with batteries to “store” electrical power.

    And they want to know about renewable energy systems such as PV systems.

    But it’s not enough to register just electrical power generators, providers and consumers: They want similar data for gas. And biogas.

    The potential number of core data records to be handled by the Federal Network Agency can easily reach the hundreds of millions. If one doesn’t register, one could be fined. It would be prudent to register as an electricity supplier; just in case.

    The web portal for the registry won’t come online until the middle of next year, despite the law coming into force on July 1st of this year so hundreds of millions of applications would have to be dealt with by hand. What a shame. If the Agency can’t handle it; get the advice in writing so that one won’t get fined.

    Also take care to try to correct any errors that one may have made in one’s original registration form; or where the Agency data entry erred.

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    el gordo

    Breaking Nooze

    Andrew Bolt is running a campaign to get rid of Talcum.

    ‘It’s sure ending in tears for his original coup plotters, two of whom have reportedly defected to Immigration Minister Peter Dutton.’

    Timing is hard to predict, my earlier forecast that the PM could be rolled before Xmas might be premature.

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    cedarhill

    With that much in subsidies, it’s a perfect site for advanced thorium nuclear reactor(s). And they’d be able to export the technology as well as manufacturing pure hydrocarbons during off-peak hours.

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    Will Janoschka

    Thank you Joanne, here another tidbit from believers at funzies Ars Technica a Conde Nast social (Vogue, wired) blog!

    AmanoJyaku Sun Nov 05, 2017 9:23 pm

    He’s not disagreeing with the solutions. He doesn’t believe climate change is real, period. He’s been calling it a scam since his first post.

    Will Janoschka wrote:

    IF you are referring to me that is correct! I called out Jimmy Hanson and Al Gore on such in November 1978.
    All the best!-will-

    jeandemeung Posted: Mon Nov 06,17 3:31 am

    Its obviously not a scam, and its merely provocative to keep asserting it in forums like this, without giving any reasoned argument.

    Where is your reasoned argument that belief\conjecture has anything to do with “SCIENCE” that demands concerted rejection of all belief\conjecture?
    jeandemeung

    If you want to argue that the conventional consensus view is wrong, you probably will want to have some account of how it has come to be the consensus. There are models of how mistaken beliefs come to command widespread acceptance, and it would be best to review them and come up with a reasoned diagnosis and a careful argument for why it applies.

    Conventional consensus view is not wrong, it is merely non-scientific.”How it has come to be the consensus” is via all methods of replacing wonderful curiosity about this physical is; with indoctrinated acceptance of the fake belief of self appointed elite educators! Hint, hint.
    jeandemeung

    Conspiracy and scam are very seldom, if ever, the explanation for the progress of such widely held beliefs.

    Again you conflate belief with science! Nothing wrong with having belief of your choice. Since Galileo science rejects belief for proof of this current physical.

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