JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 8.1 out of 10 based on 22 ratings

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244 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

  • #
    Alfred Alexander

    Thank you!

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  • #
    Roy Hogue

    I woke up this morning and looked out the kitchen window to see more rain falling. If my opinion counts for anything, the rain has returned and with it, snow at higher elevations. But we have not yet begun to have enough snow to end the water restrictions brought on be the drought.

    I’ve been thinking about how amazing our climate really is with it’s ability to cycle through wide variations and yet eventually it gets back to being very hospitable to life. And actually it never really got inhospitable. It just offered up some challenging years to keep us alert and on our toes. After all, it would put a lot of TV meteorologist types out of a job if rain and sunshine always happened on a predictable schedule. And we wouldn’t want that, would we? ;-)

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    • #
      el gordo

      Its the uncertainty of life which makes it so exciting and interesting.

      100

      • #
        jorgekafkazar

        Life would be boring if perfect. There would be no golf if every drive were perfect.

        FRED: How’d you to on the links today?
        BOB: Went ’round in 18. You?
        FRED: 18.
        BOB: Wot a coincidence. Heh-heh-heh.
        FRED: You know we’re in Hell, right?

        90

        • #
          Reed Coray

          Jorge, that’s one of the things that frightens me about heaven (assuming that’s where I end up). Golf is enjoyable only as long as “Perfect golf” is unattainable. Once attained, golf would be a bore.

          00

    • #
      Dennis

      The TV meteorologists must be in state of confusion when they are being briefed by various BoM climate change personnel who give them different fairy tales.

      151

  • #
    Marcus

    Jo Nova,just thought you might want to know that Judith Curry’s retirement made it on to Fox News with a great interview…

    http://video.foxnews.com/v/5273586586001/?#sp=show-clips

    Marcus the banned…(from WUWT) …lol

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      Good for both Carlson, who knows how to do a good interview and Curry, who was honest about her position on climate change.

      I noticed Carlson mentions 98% as though it’s an established fact but I think it was simply his way of drawing out Curry’s explanation for viewers. Tucker Carlson isn’t a science heavyweight as far as I know but I see plenty of evidence that he’s not in the global warming camp.

      Good interview. Now if we could just get Curry and Mann together for a debate with a moderator (Carlson could do it) who knows how to keep it all going right without taking a position himself I think it would be an eyeopener for the whole world.

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      • #
        Marcus

        …Mann is not Man enough to face Judith Curry in an actual debate…(Excuse the multiple puns there…) LOL

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          No problem with the puns. They are the oldest form of humor and also sometimes the funnies too, going all the way back to old testament times. Unfortunately they’re only obvious when you can read the original Hebrew, which I cannot. And translated into English they make no sense. I would never have know about them if not for reading a short book many years ago.

          As for MIchael Mann… …too accurate to argue with.

          100

          • #
            Marcus

            ..LOL…When I typed in your Online name to make a reply, my “Auto Spelling Correction” (program that I wrote for myself) came back with …”Rogue” ??
            http://www.thefreedictionary.com/rogue

            Me thinks I need to do some adjustments…D’oh !!

            70

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              Don’t feel bad, I’ve been called that too. And for some people pronouncing Hogue has been a stumbling block and I tell them it rhymes with rogue. Then they get it. It seems like it should be trivial to pronounce but somehow it’s not.

              70

          • #
            Mark M

            97% Climate doomsayers will travel thousands of fossil-fuelled miles to express their outrage at other peoples fossil-fuelled usage …
            Event.
            Sydney University
            Wednesday 8 February 2017
            6.00 – 7.30PM
            “With the election of Donald Trump to the Presidency of the United States, it now seems climate change denial has reached into the most powerful political office in the world.
            In this special Sydney Ideas public lecture, world-renowned climate scientist Professor Michael Mann provides a somewhat light-hearted take on a very serious issue—the threat of human-caused climate change and what to do about it.”
            http://sydney.edu.au/environment-institute/events/the-madhouse-effect-climate-change-denial-in-the-age-of-trump/
            . . .
            Flying around the world to promote your doomsday book is obviously one thing you don’t do about it.

            202

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Another thing you don’t do is rely on spell checkers. Thus I got funnies when I meant funniest. That one extra letter I didn’t hit… Nuts!

            Help, I’m never going to learn to type or proofread. I’m doomed. :-(

            90

            • #
              Alexander Carpenter

              You can turn the automatic spell-correction off, Roy. Actually turn it off. Simple enough even for climate scientists.

              50

              • #

                I assume spell-checkers are developed using an AI routine? I see no danger of AI taking over the world. First mobile (cell) phone I got would not let me type “gone to bunnings” (hardware store). It kept changing it to bummings. Maybe that’s where the nickname “bunnies” originated?
                There’s some gems here – http://www.damnyouautocorrect.com/

                30

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                I haven’t run automatic correction for years. I get inline notification of what it doesn’t like. But funnies and funniest both go through without tickling anything because both are legitimate words. And the spelling checker in Chrome, while it does look some at the context to guess the right suggestion, can’t really read. AI can now drive a car through the streets of San Francisco but it can’t second guess little ole me worth a toot.

                Maybe there otta be a law prohibiting making one word from just a one letter change to any other word. ;-)

                Don’t I wish.

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        • #
          Ron Cook

          Mann would end up with Curried egg on his face.

          R-COO- K+

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      • #

        Roy Hogue January 8, 2017 at 4:12 am
        “Good for both Carlson, who knows how to do a good interview and Curry, who was honest about her position on climate change.”

        I agree!

        “Good interview. Now if we could just get Curry and Mann together for a debate with a moderator (Carlson could do it) who knows how to keep it all going right without taking a position himself I think it would be an eyeopener for the whole world.”

        Why would you encourage such a ridiculous construct? This is only to “keep it going” rather than destroy the obscene, with proper stake through the heart! :-)

        41

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Why would you encourage such a ridiculous construct?

          Only because a real honest debate, laced with the numbers and no chance allowed for either side to sidestep any question or point, would easily expose Mann for what he is, dishonest.

          20

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        As I was writing up the comment about Tucker Carlson’s interview of Judith Curry I was thinking about how nice it would be if Fox put him into that 9 PM EST slot now vacant since Megyn Kelly’s departure. And sure enough, as if someone read my mind, yesterday evening Fox was announcing the move of Carlson’s show into that very time slot.

        Carlson wont be the same type of interviewer that Kelly was but he’s already well known for never doing a softball interview. So Mr. Murdock, I think that’s a real good move. But I wish you had been able to keep Kelly because she brought something to her show that’s hard to describe but was very effective at making a point, getting at the truth or exposing evasion,that’s going to be hard to beat.

        I’m happy as a clam. :-)

        30

  • #
    Fuel Filter

    Take a gander at this latest James Delingpole article. 

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/01/03/delingpole-trump-versus-the-green-blob-heres-how-we-know-he-means-business/

    Note: He says there are more columns to come (he’s already written a few on Trump but this is his first since he’s had a meeting in NYC with Trump advisors…yes, DJT invited him, probably due to the influences of Nigel Farage and Steve Bannon). 

    And then this earlier one:

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/01/06/delingpole-green-energy-charter-crooks-liars-scam-must-end-now/

    To the GreenBlob in the U.S.A.:  Be. Very. Afraid. 

    Hide your wives and children. Put your Teslas and Priuses under camouflage netting.  Go to ground in your bunkers and hunker down with your free-trade coffee, gluten-free low-salt non-processed locally-sourced pesticide-free organic food and comfortable Birkinstocks. Oh, and don’t forget all that morally transcendent Starbucks “Ethos” water that you have stockpiled as a good liberal prepper. Cases and cases of it (at $1.99/ pint). And don’t forget to “enjoy your (cage-free, of course) egg-white omlette”.   BTW, how are you gonna cook that without fossil fuel? Oh, that’s right! Just plug it in to your free-range sockets that are run on Trader Joe’s unicorn farts, Obama’s “Hope and Change” $20 trillion in national debt and his free cell phones + his EBT cards (EBT = free government food, translated for you Aussies).

    And Mr. Mann, I sincerely hope Mark Stein fries you bankrupt on a Southern-Style pork BBQ and Dr. Curry is there to enjoy every second of it.

    Big Green, your days are numbered in my country.

    (On a side note, I really do feel sorry for you guys in OZ with that dolt [can I say that with your 18-C, or whatever it's called?]  Turnbull and all the other politicos that have and are selling you down the river. I read this blog at least twice a week as well as Quadrant so I  probably know more than most Americans of your climate and political situations.  Here’s hoping there will be some knock-off effect from us towards you good guys to throw your own bums out and drain your swamps. May God save you from all your windmills.)

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      I will insert this here in the hope it might amuse some, and better annoy a troll.

      Since 2016 was a wet year we can look forward to a bumper fruit crop in autumn. It particular we are likely to see a larger crop of those hard, often prickly, bitter green excrescences with red insides which are often thrown away or just allowed to rot. I refer to the fruit of the trolls. Hundred of years ago they were the last resort of the desperate and starving peasants, but lately have come back into vogue among that minority (3%?) who think civilisation reached a peak in the seventeenth century.

      I thought that a few notes on their preparation might be of interest.Your approach depends on the variety. Unfortunately the best old varieties like the legendary Brookes are no longer available since they were banned as weeds.

      The Appell is hard and bitter so to get at the red insides it is best to just crush the fruit with a blunt instrument — known in the trade as an AndyGee. Store the crush in a barrel in a cold cellar while it slowly decomposes. When the yard is frozen bring the barrel up and stand it in a shady corner for a week. Strain any liquid into jugs and drink it as quickly as possible as it goes rotten when it warms up. Sadly many batches spoil during storage and there is nothing to do but add it to the compost heap, as even the pigs won’t eat it.

      The Frank variety is the poorest choice with a bilious green prickly coat and a sickly pink interior. The usual method is to slice it thinly and rub the slices on a grater and strain any juice through muslin into the fermenting vessel. A process known in Somerset as “taking the pith out of it”. Once fermented there is some alcohol but the smell resembles rotten cabbage. Hardly worth the trouble of dealing with it.

      The Julian and Tristan varieties are more common and easier to deal with. Lightly crush the fruit and add yeast to the fermenter. Don’t forget to exclude the air by covering with carbon dioxide gas. The resulting liquid is thin in substance and the odour less objectionable, but can bring amusement to those watching others drink it for the first time.

      The old Twinodder variety has a number of names, Twinblotter, Twinblatter, Twinbladder etc. An old variety first referred to in 1619 as the choice given to those suspected of witchcraft, of eating a whole fruit and proving their innocence (if they survived), or being burnt at the stake. Most suspects chose to be burnt alive. It is best kept outside the house as the odour is objectionable. And it should be handled, if necessary, with 2 pairs of gloves, one to avoid the spikes and the second contact with the toxic sticky brown slime it extrudes. Lately there is a scheme trying to turn it into biofuel; a waste of time and effort.

      There are other varieties which may turn up occasionally, the Stinking Stoat for example. Avoid it, as it is highly poisonous, except to vermin which are attracted to the odour. Ignore other rarer sorts as they are also a waste of time and effort.

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    • #
      stan stendera

      ^1776

      40

  • #
    Marcus

    ..Thanks for that F.F…You made my morning a little warmer in the frozen North !! LOL

    102

  • #
    RoyFOMR

    Let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that President Putin did direct his intelligence services to disrupt the US Presidential election. Why should anyone find this surprising?

    Under President Obama, we’ve seen the Arab Spring once so loved by the liberal West and now regarded as an unmitigated disaster even by those who once cheered it to the rafters – Yes, we’re looking at you ABC, BBC and EU bretheren – a new Cold War with Russia and that’s just for starters!

    Given my starting premise, why would Putin, as the leader of a sovereign country, stand back and watch the US elect a POTUS like the hawkish ‘We came – We saw – He Died’ HRC who represented a clear and about-to-be-present danger to his nation? Didn’t we applaud Winston Churchill when he tried to warn the British Government during his ‘Wilderness Years’ of the threat to world peace with the rise of Nazi Germany? Yes, of course we did, we even voted him as our Greatest Brit of all times; but only with the benefit of hindsight! At the time he was a figure to be mocked and derided by the establishment.

    Unlike Churchill, Putin (or Wikileaks if you’re more inclined) had a lot of low-hanging fruit to pluck. An opposition figure and a Party whose ignorance, hubris and contempt disdained the rules regarding US Goverment security as not-for-them. It was to be their Nemesis. Not by manufacturing falsehoods about their behavior but exposing them for the type of people that they were and, to make it worse, to the very people that they wanted to vote for them. And so, they lost. And they deserved to lose.

    Despite the best efforts of a bruised and battered Western establishment to paint President Putin as the elephant in the room, there never was an elephant in the room, just one very stupid Ass – the Democrat Donkey.

    It was the Donkey in the Room wot put the Elephant in the House

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      I have trouble understanding why Putin would want to help Trump win. What would he gain? Clinton would surely be more willing to help Putin’s plans or at least more willing to not stand in their way than Trump would be.

      200

      • #
        Roy Hogue

        To put it a different way, Clinton and Putin are much closer to being kindred souls than Putin and Trump will ever be.

        151

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          I think that whatever happened, it would have happened even without the election. Everyone spies on everyone else and they do it even between solid allies. The reason is very simple, no leader want’s to be surprised by what the rest of the world is doing.

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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            And to my red thumb, Clinton made it so easy to get into her email that a 10 year old with a computer and the ability to read any of the many sets of hacking guidelines now all over the Internet could have done it.

            151

            • #

              julian assange had well more than the ability to do this hacking without help fron anyplace, the motive (his own freedom), form for doing this type of thing before and Wikileaks claims to have done it. So obviously it was someone else.

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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Allies do spy on each other and that’s a fact.

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        • #
          Ted O'Brien

          Roy @ #6.1.1. Kindred souls?

          Could it be that Putin needs what Trump is bringing? A stronger world economy?

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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Could it be that Putin needs what Trump is bringing? A stronger world economy?

            Ted,

            It could well be. But Putin must surely know that he can’t operate a one commodity economy successfully, well maybe 2 commodities, oil and gas. And what else has he got to sell that will benefit from a stronger world economy? His largest other export seems to be Russian citizens heading out to greener pastures. ;-) And he can only sell energy to a small part of the world without putting in a lot more infrastructure, ships, etc.

            I’m sure Trump will not want to see Russia go adventuring around as some have rather convincingly predicted he might if he’s after reconstructing the old Soviet Union. But it’s not hard to understand that what Putin is doing with his move into the crimea is protecting his ports that give him his only access to the Atlantic besides ports he has that are so far north that they freeze up in the winter. I wish he had done it better though. He did have agreements guaranteeing him access as far as I know. But clearly that was a compelling interest. And if I can figure that out I’m sure Donald Trump can too. And I hope that Trump does not get us involved there where we have no national interest that I know of.

            By the way, both Russia and the U.S. have a certain problem in common that Jo appears reluctant to allow to be discussed, at least she would not let me mention it once. So maybe some collaboration or alliance there could be on his mind or plain old direct assistance in some form. And he couldn’t get that from Clinton.

            And I’ve just realized that in trying to make an argument for my position I may have ended up arguing for yours. Funny how writing down your thoughts so they make sense can clarify them for you.

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        • #
          Graeme No.3

          Didn’t Clinton threaten Russia with nuclear war? Didn’t she have uncontrollable temper tantrums? Perhaps Putin decided that Trump was thee lesser danger.

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          • #
            Roy Hogue

            Trump can have quite a Temper too but it manifests itself more when he thinks he’s being criticized or attacked personally than over international politics. Witness his confrontation with Megyn Kelly. He doesn’t yell and scream but he clearly gets angry.

            50

        • #

          “To put it a different way, Clinton and Putin are much closer to being kindred souls than Putin and Trump will ever be.”

          “Putin began as an atheist, but a car accident and a house fire caused him to question his views and now he is a devout member of the Russian Orthodox Church”
          http://hollowverse.com/vladimir-putin/
          Compare the thoughts of a devout Russian othodox watching ISIS behead Syrian Orthodox church members to the thoughts of the secretary of state who is accused of providing weapons that got into ISIS hands.
          Worshipers Give Donald Trump, Mike Pence Standing Ovation at NJ Presbyterian Church.
          http://www.christianpost.com/news/worshipers-donald-trump-mike-pence-standing-ovation-nj-presbyterian-church-171667/

          60

          • #
            Mark D.

            Good to hear from you L.

            I’m trying to understand your point here?

            20

            • #

              G’day Mark.
              Due to my work I get to meet and make friends with many people from all parts of the globe. I have made good friends with customers from many different religions and positions. Have learned to look past the race, power, religion and position to see the human. Roy seems to ignore the human when thinking about Putin. To me Hillary is more like a machine than any of them.
              Am simply saying that those of an orthodox religion from Russia will see Trump from that perspective as more like themselves than Hillary. So seeing the regime change wars from that angle also.

              Syria’s Christians see Bashar al-Assad as their protector
              “Headquarters Damascus, Syria”
              http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syriac_Orthodox_Church

              40

              • #
                Mark D.

                Thank you for the fill-in comment Siliggy. The extra clarity is helpful and in agreement with much of what I see in the world.

                Happy new year to you and yours!

                30

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                I’ve actually been round and round about Putin. Is he good, bad or indifferent? I always start out thinking the new guy on the scene is genuine and in Putin’s case, interested in not only Russia but the rest of the world. After all, Russia doesn’t exist in a vacuum any more that the U.S. does. But then he goes into the crimea with a lot of force where there doesn’t appear to be a need for all the force. And an act like that dehumanizes the man as it would with anyone who uses force where it doesn’t seem to be needed. But your right. Hillary is a machine, a machine driven by personal lust for power and control. I may have misjudged Putin as I’ve already said. But there’s no way on Earth I’ll ever believe anything good about Hillary Clinton.

                50

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            About Putin — I’m a monkey’s uncle. I would never have guessed that from what I find written anywhere about the man.

            I’m glad you put that up Siliggy.

            30

      • #
        warcroft

        Russia is a huge chunk of land that no other government can get hold of. Putin wont give it up.
        Most of Russia’s economy is from oil. Obama and the Saudis slashed the price of Saudi oil by 50% in an attempt to crash Russia’s economy. The Saudis were prepared to wear the losses short term.
        ISIS (with their captured oil fields) with Turkey were/are also selling oil at half price.

        Remember a couple of years ago when petrol prices went from $1.50 to just under $1/litre? This is why. $100/barrel, cut to $50/barrel.

        Russia knucked down and took the price cut while the Saudis struggled to maintain the price. But a side effect was more oil was being bought from ISIS and Turkey. They were still making plenty of margin.

        Then, ultimately, the oil price cut is what pushed Putin to join the “war on terror”, bombing ISIS oil fields and reserves.

        Why would Putin prefer Trump?
        Putin has spent years rebuilding Russia from collapse. He is proud of his country and wants it to prosper. He sees what is happening in the rest of the world (USA, EU) and he’s fighting against it. Putin doesn’t want war. He’s been fighting tooth and nail to stop war.
        Putin and Trump both want the same thing. To work together. To help each other to grow their countries.

        Its polar opposite to what Obama and Hillary had in mind. “WAR WAR WAR WAR WAR!!!”

        Shooting down the Russian fighter. Russia didn’t retaliate.
        Shoot the Russian ambassador. Russia didn’t retaliate.
        Breaking cease fire. Russia didn’t retaliate.
        US military and nuclear missiles assembling on Russia’s borders. Russia didn’t retaliate.

        The West and Middle East are doing everything they can to provoke Russia. To try and make Russia retaliate. Then the West could scapegoat Russia and say they started the war.
        Hillary and Obama said over and over again that that was their intention.

        But the whole email hacking scandal? Blaming Russia? Is that all they’ve got? Its a complete deflection. A red herring.
        You know it. I know it. We all know it.

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Obama has been willing to give away good and reliable US missiles and their warheads in exchange for Russian equivalents that were nowhere near as reliable according to what I have read. And there is no reason to think Clinton would not hold a similar position. And that removes a great part of the threat of war with the west from Putin’s worry list.

          Will Trump be so eager to give away our nuclear capability to the scrap metal salvage operators? I doubt it. And I know of no reason why anyone in the United states would want to get ahold of even one square centimeter of Russia.

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          • #
            David Maddison

            But Alaska was a good purchase from Russia, back in the day.

            30

            • #
              Roy Hogue

              And back when it was done it was called Seward’s Folly. Yet look what it turned into. So maybe I should reconsider?

              20

              • #
                Roy Hogue

                But I still can’t see any more of Russia that we could possibly make good use of. Just governing it would be a major problem because it’s so distant.

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      • #

        I have trouble understanding why Putin would want to help Trump win. What would he gain?

        A higher probability of peace.

        There was a real chance of the initiation of a major war had HRC been elected and enforced a no-fly zone over Syria; in which Syria’s allies, the Russians operate militarily against ISIS strongholds.

        Putin, evil or otherwise, is a very intelligent, rational man. He’s probably read several of Trump’s books just to get into Trump’s head.

        Putin seems to have one solid and pervasive anchor to everything that he does: his love for his Russia. There’s not that alone but it’s essential to understand why Putin does things.

        Trump is a businessman; a negotiator. Trump is more likely to perceive Putin simply as a competitor or business partner than an evil emperor.

        Strategically, Putin is likely to prefer a united USA than one fraught by instability and internal insecurity. Russia already has plenty of unstable neighbours!

        Putin, being former KGB, probably understood that he did not have to interfere in actual elections. Trump was already tappoing into the under-current. Manipulating elections is what the EU did, as did the USA under Presidents Bush, Clinton and Obama. Trump made it clear that he would not be in the business of régime change.

        For Putin, Trump was a better outcome. Not ideal. But better.

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      • #
        Mari C

        Look at China. Borders on Russia – long border. Putin knows the Chinese are not his friends, even tho another communist-style economy and leadership. With China flexing muscle and economic strength, who else has Putin to align with? He’d rather be on friendly terms with the US than not, at this point. As for the leaks, they were, in my mind, fall-out from an information gathering mission – one that Putin probably hoped would give him some leverage no matter who won. Both parties were “hacked” but only one had info leaked; who knows, really, if it was Putin behind the leaks or someone else – the gatherers of the information? another party to the transfer of the info? The DNC itself, knowing it was hacked, knowing who the pointers led to, in order to smear Trump even more?

        Report out on it has “high confidence” in the sources, thus a “high confidence” in the Russians being behind it all. That smacks of the modeling done by the IPCC pseudo-scientists – high confidence in a possible 1 – 5 degree increase?

        At any rate, it’s a spy game, so who knows? We will never know.

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    • #
      Gorgiasl

      Of course Russia spies on the US and tries to hack every computer that it possibly can, just as the US does with Russia (as well as its allies) and Australia does whenever it gets a chance (remember the scandal of Australia hacking the President of Indonesia’s mobile phone).

      Any allegation that the hacking was done by Putin to influence the US election has the same sort of certainty bands as the IPCC claims about AGW and are made by just as untrustworthy people. Look for a minute at James Clapper, the Obama appointed Head of the NSA, who has announced his retirement from the NSA to concise with Obama’s retirement and is the chief spokesman here (from Wikipaedia):

      “Two U.S. representatives accused Clapper of perjury for telling a congressional committee in March 2013, that the NSA does not collect any type of data at all on millions of Americans. One senator asked for his resignation, and a group of 26 senators complained about Clapper’s responses under questioning. Media observers have described Clapper as having lied under oath, having obstructed justice, and having given false testimony.”

      Why isn’t the real story what the Podesta emails (however obtained and released) said about Clinton, Podesta and the DNC.

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        Roy Hogue

        I think Clapper is in over his head myself. And the real story is as you said. The only problem being that the media has no interest in any story but the one they know will further the liberal agenda.

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        • #
          Mark D.

          A well paid person that is “over his head” is the perfect tool to be manipulated.

          30

          • #
            Roy Hogue

            If being “in over your head” meant being literally over your head we’d soon be rid of such people, water isn’t a healthy thing to inhale. I’m hoping that Trump’s first move will be to purge the administrative branch of all such people. And he seems headed in that direction, a political equivalent of making them really “in over their heads”.

            40

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      There is a very old adage:

      “Keep your friends very close. But keep your enemies closer still”.

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    • #
      Annie

      Aside from any other consideration no one has claimed that the emails are an invention! It’s all genuine stuff that American voters were entitled to know about and large numbers of them didn’t like what they saw.
      I do not understand why Clinton, Huma and her ex and Podesta aren’t yet heading to jail for treason.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        If I could tell you why they aren’t I’d print it up in gold leaf, real gold and send it to you, Annie. The only thing in the way of it has got to be someone’s unwillingness to enforce the law.

        80

    • #
      Dennis

      I recall that Labor PM Rudd of Australia ordered phone tapping of Indonesian political leaders.

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    • #
      gnome

      From Althouse blog- “moose and squirrel are to blame”.

      20

    • #
      RB.

      Its interesting that one of the emails to Podesta encourages playing up the Trump “bromance” with Putin.

      Looking at something to watch last night, I came across Putin’s Way (Dateline’s Brett Mason presents this special documentary which investigates the accusations of criminality and corruption that have surrounded Vladimir Putin’s reign in Russia. Tracing his career back over two decades, the program reveals how the accumulation of wealth and power has led to
      https://www.yourtv.com.au/guide/yesterday/#PXfz0MsVEJZQkXLI.99) followed by Clinton v Trump: The choice 2016 (With anticipation building in the lead-up to the 2016 US Presidential Election, the duelling stories of opposing candidates Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are exposed in this documentary. This is a journey into the places, people, and decisive moments that made the people who are competing)

      Pretty blatant partisan politics by a federally funded TV station so there is actually more evidence that Turnbull tried to manipulate the outcome of the US elections with fake news than Putin.

      10

  • #
    James Murphy

    My employer recently destroyed xx million euros worth of brand new, unused, custom built hardware which it had sitting in a warehouse, waiting for other parts of the world to “lease” it (for want of a better term). It is true that, as it’s oil industry related, things are tough, and demand for said equipment is at an all-time low, but still, it seems like utter madness, given that they now no longer have spare parts/replacements for those in operation, and it would take a few months to get new gear built.

    What none of us engineering/science background people can work out (admittedly, we didnt strain ourselves to find out, either), is… would this action contribute to making company finances look better, or worse… or could it be spun to do either of the above (as I imagine it could be)?

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    • #
      tom0mason

      In many countries you can claim tax relief against loss of capital investment of equipment.
      CAPEX loss claims are often used to claim back or reduce tax in business, though the legality of this particular case looks very suspect. If tax inspectors get wind of this being a rouse to offset tax liabilities, and not a business improvement that went wrong heavy penalties could ensue, including prison.
      Alternatively it could be that the management have found a profitable market for recycling components or materials from the equipment. Maybe the original owners have already claimed the tax relief on it, thus, on behalf of the original owners, your company is contracted to render the equipment useless.

      Such is the labyrinthine twists and turns of tax write-offs.

      50

      • #
        tom0mason

        Search out ‘CAPEX loss claim’ for your country/state to see what is allowed.

        30

      • #
        Mark D.

        Right TomOmason. In the US, the inventory is held as an asset (with loopholes) and taxes are owed on such things every year. When destroyed, the book value can become a write-off against other profits.

        In the end it is a terrible waste and totally not “sustainable” however the IRS isn’t interested in sustainability except maybe for themselves.

        30

  • #
    Marcus

    ..James Murphy, two questions…
    (1) Why did your company have “brand new, unused, custom built hardware” ?
    (2) For what reason did they “destroy it” ?
    ….Just Curious…

    30

    • #
      James Murphy

      Why did it have this equipment? Because it designed it, had it built (some internally, and some via other companies)as there was a need for it.

      Thanks to a combination of the ongoing oil industry downturn, and an already over-optimistic business outlook for the services which were to use said hardware, the demand has not been as great as anticipated. Arguably, a fraction of it is currently surplus to requirements, but as I have indicated, it depends who is doing the arguing.

      By “destroying”, I mean destroying – the equipment had any identifying logos and the like removed, and it was then smashed beyond repair, and disposed of via rubbish skips. This, I had the misfortune to see first-hand.

      The reasons are what I, and my colleagues cannot entirely understand – was it to make our company look better, or worse in a financial sense…? Throughout this oil industry downturn, I have witnessed some incredibly absurd decisions being taken in the name of cost-cutting, and so-called ‘financial savings’, and when I saw such an enormous investment in hardware being scrapped by some of the people who designed and built it, well, I am sure you can see, it boggles the mind of any sane person.

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      • #
        tom0mason

        “I have witnessed some incredibly absurd decisions being taken in the name of cost-cutting, and so-called ‘financial savings’, and when I saw such an enormous investment in hardware being scrapped by some of the people who designed and built it, well, I am sure you can see, it boggles the mind of any sane person.”

        I too have witness such absurdities, and have had to sign-off to certify equipment destroyed and correctly scrapped-off. The full reasons I still do not understand, the financial director told us that this must be done so that tax relief could be paid.

        One of the big problems with modern financial accounting methods is that parts in storage, including spare parts, are often categorized as a deficit on the account books. (Hence the drive for just in time(JIT) ordering)
        Accountants view spare parts as ‘dead’ money (non-performing investment), i.e. material that is not currently making a profit, may never be used, and accrues costs in maintaining storage facilities.

        I have previously worked at a company where the accountants had deemed we held $1,000,000 too much spare stock, and an audit was done and stock reduced. At the same time the Sales Department negotiated new maintenance contracts with long term customers reducing repair/refurbishment turn-round times from 15 days to 5 days! Both of these were done to improve profitability and for so-called ‘financial savings’. Needless to say this was impractical.
        The outcome was much of the spare stock was bought back, and that year a lost was posted. I left the company shortly after that as management did not understand that the company was both a manufacturer and a service provider — the financial department especially could not see these dual aspects. I understand the company has since moved on to a different market. The products are now ‘badge’ made in the Far East under license.

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  • #
    tom0mason

    A song for the AGW advocates –
    (With apologies to The Big O — Roy Orbison)

    “Warming — It’s Over”

    Your warming doesn’t love you anymore.
    Cooling days before the end.
    Whispered secrets to the wind.
    Your ‘carbon’ won’t be near you, any more.

    Chilly nights before winds cry,
    Send icy flakes of snow that fly.
    Your warming doesn’t want you anymore…
    It’s over.

    It breaks lefty-hearts in two,
    That warming been so untrue,
    But what can CO2 do?
    When it’s freezing to you,
    There’s climate anew,
    We’re through,
    We’re through.
    It’s over. It’s over. It’s over!

    All the rainbows in the sky,
    Weeping snow then say bye-bye
    You won’t be seeing rainbows any more.
    Sunny whiteouts make you fall,
    Frost at sunrise, that is all.
    But you’ll see icy sunsets after all.

    It’s over.
    It’s over.
    It’s over!
    It’s oh-over!!

    90

  • #
    Mat

    AndyG55,

    3 years ago, at the start of 2014, you made a prediction about temperatures, that:

    … we are almost certainly going to start heading down hill.
    link

    Although I disagreed, I commended you on making a falsifiable prediction, and offered a challenge:

    I’m open to any number of years, but let’s say if that in three years global temperatures start trending downwards, I’ll revise my thinking. I sincerely hope that in the reverse case you will be open to revising yours. Agreed?

    Since then, in 2014, 2015, and now in 2016, global surface temperature records were broken each year. Even UAH lower troposphere, which has the lowest warming trend of near surface records, has 2016 as the hottest on record. So I ask – will you consider revising your position?

    55

    • #
      AndyG55

      Start of 2017. That’s 3 years

      Let’s see where the go over the few months shall we.

      December 2016 was 5th December in UAH and 9th December in RSS.

      Looks like I might be pretty much on track.

      And 2016 was NOT the warmest year in either UAH or RSS.
      The difference between 2016 and 2016 was well below the margin of error.

      Heck you had to go to the third decimal place in RSS.

      Interestingly If we take the average of UAH and RSS on a monthly basis, then calculate the average yearly temperature, …

      2016 is COOLER than 1998, anomalies as shown

      1998… 0.515℃
      2016… 0.425℃

      Quite a big difference, hey.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        typo

        The difference between 2016 and 2016 1998 was well below the margin of error.

        0.02℃ in UAH and 0.009℃ in RSS

        That means they are the same as 1998.. so NO WARMING in 18 years.

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      • #
        AndyG55

        “Interestingly If we take the average of UAH and RSS on a monthly basis, then calculate the average yearly temperature, …

        2016 is COOLER than 1998, anomalies as shown

        1998… 0.515℃
        2016… 0.425℃

        Quite a big difference, hey.

        Just found a calculation error in the spreadsheet.

        Difference is 0.016℃.. So.. since error is stated as 0.1℃… NO WARMING

        Mustn’t do calc stuff at 5am !!

        Question is.. why didn’t someone correct me. ;-)

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        • #
          AndyG55

          “2016 is COOLER than 1998, anomalies as shown

          1998… 0.515℃
          2016… 0.425℃


          Quite a big difference, hey.

          That was meant to be crossed out too.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      “Since then, in 2014, 2015, and now in 2016, global surface temperature records were broken each year”

      That is just misinformation.

      In both UAH and RSS, 2014 was 8th warmest and 2015 is now 4th warmest.

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      • #
        Mat

        AndyG55,

        Let’s get back to the issue. We spoke in January 2014, where you said temperatures will almost certainly go downhill. Looking at UAH LT V6 and taking the 3 year mean:

        – For the period directly before your prediction the anomaly was +0.07.
        – For the period directly after your prediction the anomaly was +0.31.
        This latest three year period has an average anomaly DOUBLE any other three year period, including 1998. Or you can take 2,3,4 or 5 year periods, and the most recent period has been much higher than any other in the satellite era. That seems to be an upward trend to me.

        Your prediction failed. So I ask again in good faith: will you consider revising your position?

        Years_ending 3_Yr_Mean
        1980-12-31 -0.1348
        1983-12-31 -0.1486
        1986-12-31 -0.2722
        1989-12-31 -0.0397
        1992-12-31 -0.0825
        1995-12-31 -0.0647
        1998-12-31 0.1567
        2001-12-31 0.0264
        2004-12-31 0.1617
        2007-12-31 0.1572
        2010-12-31 0.1089
        2013-12-31 0.0703
        2016-12-31 0.3139

        —-
        [Mat, clearly Andy didn't predict two El Ninos. (Did you?) The folly of 3 year predictions is that they all need PDO caveats. -- Jo]

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        • #
          AndyG55

          No Mat, I said cooling trend would set in around 2-5 years from 2014 , because of unknown lag times.

          You are pre-empting, I suspect because you can see the cooling trend coming.

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          • #
            Mat

            So, you’re still predicting cooling… so if there is no cooling trend 2014-2019? What then?

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            • #
              AndyG55

              You apparently still have comprehension issues, I see.

              Cooling should start somewhere this year. We will see.

              What will you do if there is no warming, like there has been no warming between El Nino events in the whole satellite data?

              (slight cooling from 2001 to just before the just finishing El Nino, according to your own data)

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              • #
                Mat

                Ok, excellent, another bold prediction… cooling should start somewhere this year! You keep needing to push out that start date, ay? But if you can draw a cooling trend from 2014 to the end of 2017, or even 2018, I’ll give you some kudos and rethink my position.

                Are you proposing any mechanism for your amazing cooling? A dimming sun? Increase in cosmic rays? Just a bit of chaos? A prediction kind of needs a mechanism to be credible. If you’re right, you’ll be famous!

                Also I note you keep ‘ignoring the El Nino transient event’ and drawing flat lines between the big step-ups in global temps. Why would you do that? Hell, I that means I’m doing a lot better on the stock market than I thought – I just chose start and end dates that suit my purposes, and ignore those big drops! Sweet!

                11

              • #
                Mark D.

                A prediction kind of needs a mechanism to be credible.

                Much like the prediction of warming I suppose. There is a proposed mechanism but it fails to predict reality.

                11

              • #
                AndyG55

                Poor Mat,, you really have top keep up with what is going on.

                Are you REALLY pretending that El Ninos are anything top do with CO2 warming

                are you REALKLY that ignorant ?

                Do you really not understand that an EL Nino is a release of energy FROM the ocean, and while it does have a TRANSIENT warming effect on the atmosphere, it is actually and ocean cooling event.

                In RSS, there was a ZERO trend from 1997 to just before the 2015 EL Nino. The El Nino transient has now decayed to just below that trend line, with further to go.

                https://s19.postimg.org/qp3u91to3/RSS_El_Nino_trend.png

                You have already shown us that a slight COOLING trend had started before the El Nino… and now that the transient is over, it will continue.

                02

              • #
                AndyG55

                “Why would you do that? “

                Because between the NON-CO2 El Ninos, is the only place you can see if there is any CO2 warming signal.

                THERE ISN’T..

                Get it..

                There is absolutely NO CO2 WARMING SIGNAL in either of the satellite data sets.. NONE.

                And stupid analogies with stock market.. you have GOT to be joking.

                02

              • #
                AndyG55

                “You keep needing to push out that start date,”

                You sir, are a monumental LIAR

                I have never held any position except that cooling would start sometime around 2017… You yourself said I mentioned 2 – 5 years from 2014.

                … and its starting to look like I will be pretty much STOP ON.

                02

              • #
                Mat

                It’s pretty straightforward… if you decrease the energy leaving a system, the system will warm until a new equilibrium is reached (in a few thousand years).

                The ocean AND the atmosphere are part of the Earth system, so natural variability of both should be included in determining a trend. Andy’s idea of a trend

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              • #
                Mat

                I have never held any position except that cooling would start sometime around 2017… You yourself said I mentioned 2 – 5 years from 2014… and its starting to look like I will be pretty much STOP ON.

                No, you said back in 2014 were were on a plateau. So temperatures would have to trend down below 2014 levels for your prediction to be correct.

                00

        • #
          AndyG55

          From your data, ignoring the El Nino transient event

          2004-12-31 0.1617
          2007-12-31 0.1572
          2010-12-31 0.1089
          2013-12-31 0.0703

          Gees, which way are those heading ?????

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        • #
          AndyG55

          Hey Mat, did you realise that if we take the zero trend line in RSS from 1997 to just before the 2015 El Nino, then the global temperature has now dropped just below that zero trend line

          In this graph , the black trend line is calculated on the green data, then manually extended in crimson.

          The blue data is the El Nino transient and decay.

          https://s19.postimg.org/qp3u91to3/RSS_El_Nino_trend.png

          Back to where we started before the El Nino, with more cooling to go. :-)

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      • #
        • #
          AndyG55

          Thanks , you can CLEARLY see the temperature cooling for 12 years before the El Nino event.

          Well done.

          Relying on El Ninos to prove your point is NOT very sensible, because they are but transient.

          You aren’t suggesting the El Nino was anything to do with CO2 warming, are you ???

          Its the parts between El ninos you need to look at to find any CO2 signature,

          And guess what……..

          There was no warming from 1980 to the start of the 1998 El Nino.

          https://s19.postimg.org/y6om3sbjn/RSS_Before_El_Nino.jpg

          And there was no warming from the culmination of that El Nino effect and the start of the 2015/16 El Nino.

          https://s19.postimg.org/im6e8dgxf/RSS_pre_2015.png

          So really you are left with nothing

          And did you know, the transient has now dropped back down to the same level as the ZERO trend line from 1997 to 2015. (18 year zero trend)

          https://s19.postimg.org/qp3u91to3/RSS_El_Nino_trend.png

          Back to where it was before the El Nino, and more cooling to come.

          So absolutely NO CO2 WARMING SIGNAL in the whole of the satellite data.

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    • #
      AndyG55

      Don’t suppose you are in the US or Europe,

      if so you would be freezing your butt off right now.

      Massive very cold anomalies over both regions, and more to come.

      Warm anomalies in northern winter, like the El Nino brought last year, are quite pleasant

      The current very cold anomaly in the northern winter… not so pleasant

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      • #
        Lewis P Buckingham

        About this ‘massive very cold anomalies’.
        I keep asking my wife, Has SBS told you that yet, So far ‘NO’.
        She is an SBS watcher.
        They did have an account of people seeing snow for the first time that had to be trucked to them,
        on last night.
        Sounds like the narrative is still on message.
        Has anyone seen an ABC or SBS report on cold recently?
        Am I in a bubble on the net?

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Andy,

        It might help all of us (well me at least), if you could type once, read twice, correct as required, and then repeat that process until you are happy with the outcome.

        It is called proof-reading, and we all want to know what the final proof is. :-)

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        • #
          AndyG55

          I made a mistake in the calculation. Some how a formula for one got stuffed up.

          I picked up my own error, so tried to correct it.. that’s when thing went astray.

          The first attempt to cross out had the delete html at the end where it should have been, but when I posted only part of it deleted. I can’t help what the software does. :-)

          [Hey Andy, if you want to type one complete final version of your comment we can just edit out those other typo errors. Note to other mods: please only snip the earlier comments do not remove them completely.] ED

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          • #
            AndyG55

            ED: Its really just that part at the bottom of 10.1 where I made the error in the average of UAH and RSS.

            How one formula, for the yearly calculation of 2016, became different from the rest, I have no idea.

            If someone wants to edit out that bit, and my attempts to delete it, by all means.

            Otherwise, the more awake minds can navigate through the mess. :-)

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    • #
      Mark M

      Hey Matt.
      Your link to NOAA hottest year evah! 2014, 2015 fails to mention a very serious inconvenient truth.
      ABC – Was 2014 the hottest year after all?
      “NASA calculated the probability that 2014 was the hottest year on record to be 38 per cent, whilst NOAA’s analysis came in at 48 per cent – both leaving significant wriggle room for other years to take out the top spot.
      Jonova blogged about it:
      http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/gavin-schmidt-now-says-they-are-only-38-sure-2014-was-the-hottest-year/

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      • #
        AndyG55

        And that was only in the MUCH fabricated NOAA/GISS data, which bears very little resemblance to reality.

        2014 was nowhere near “the warmest evah” in the satellite data.

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  • #
    F. Ross

    Upside thought for the day:
    Only 12d 23h until King Obama the Petulant is deposed.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      Deposed, but not disposed of.

      He is the Democrats “fixer” and he knows a lot of people, and has a lot of debts he can call in.

      We have not seen the last of him.

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  • #
    aussiepete

    I am not a scientist, far from it, but have been an avid reader of this blog for a few years and have learnt a great deal, especially to do with CAGW. Despite extensive Googling I have not been able to reach an understanding of “theory falsification”.
    I have read some comments that seem to be saying that falsification verifies a theory. I just don’t get that at all. Others say that falsification doesn’t apply to all areas of science but is mainly relevant to physics. That would appear to place it squarely in the domain of climate science.
    So now my confusion
    The alarmist have the theory, the sceptics are trying to falsify it, which in turn would validate the theory but my common sense tells me that is not right..
    Surely it is as simple as “ it’s your theory mate, you must prove it, while I have a cup tea”.
    Would anyone care to try and help me, obviously in the simplest of terms?

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      It’s really pretty simple. But it escaped me too for a while.

      If a theory us to be valid, that is, true, there must be some knowable condition under which it can be shown unequivocally to be false. Otherwise to say it is true is meaningless and the theory is useless to investigate because you can never know what your findings mean. True is only meaningful when the false possibility also exists.

      The theory that CO2 is warming the earth can be falsified because being able to observe that Earth is not warming under the conditions theory says it should get warmer can disprove (falsify) the theory.

      Simple and I hope it helps.

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      • #
        Roy Hogue

        … is to be valid…

        not

        …us to be valid…

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      • #
        aussiepete

        Thank you Roy.
        A slightly different form of words has made it clearer (i think).
        I can now express it thus: Falsification (meaning POSSIBLY wrong) does not prove the theory but merely means it is therefore valid AS a theory.
        It follows that if a theory can be empirically shown to be true (tautology?) it would cease to be a theory.
        Warming caused by C02 is still therefore just a theory and this is why the infamous 97% is so important to the warmists who, in the end, have to rely on consensus in much the same way as,say,plate tectonics and evolution.

        I think I now have a rudimentary grasp of the subject.
        Thanks again.

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        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Warming caused by C02 is still therefore just a theory and this is why the infamous 97% is so important to the warmists who, in the end, have to rely on consensus in much the same way as,say,plate tectonics and evolution.

          I think you’ve got it. And that of course, is what the big debate or should I say big fight, is all about.

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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Einstein was once asked how he could prove that the Theory of Relativity was correct.

          His famous answer was, “No amount of evidence can ever prove me correct. But it would only take a single experiment to prove me wrong”.

          That is the essence of science, and thus the current theory of climate change has been falsified. That is why the alarmist keep on moving the goal-posts. They are looking for a theory that supports their desired outcome.

          Have a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYPapE-3FRw from the great Richard Feynman. It is old, but still extremely valid.

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        • #
          Robert Swan

          Can’t improve on Feynman.

          Falsifiability is the way of keeping religion out of science. [That's a bit broad but I won't let it prevent approving what you said.] AZ Say the theory is that the volcano erupts because the mountain god demands a sacrifice. You throw a maiden or two into the fiery pit. Volcano erupts anyway. A rational person might think the theory has been falsified, but the notion of a “mountain god” is so vague that the believers are free to claim that the sacrifice was not good in the god’s eye — not enough maidens, not pure enough, he prefers boys, …

          Not all that different from the hypothesis that CO2 controls the temperature. CO2 continues to climb. Temperatures have not increased. Falsified? No, no. You’re looking at the wrong temperatures. Or the heat’s scurried off to the deep ocean (presumably planning its moment to strike). And remember that this all is happening because of our sinful burning of fossil fuels.

          Global climate is just as vague a notion as a mountain god. The public debate is not scientific, it’s between believers and heretics. For all the claims that it’s “simple physics”, it’s literally political science.

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      aussiepete January 8, 2017 at 4:33 am · Reply

      “I have read some comments that seem to be saying that falsification verifies a theory. I just don’t get that at all. Others say that falsification doesn’t apply to all areas of science but is mainly relevant to physics. That would appear to place it squarely in the domain of climate science.”

      The concept that “there exists some method of falsification (one experiment that the result is in opposition to premise) to falsify”; is that that promotes a guess/conjecture/hypothesis to the level of theorem. The entire CO2 CAGW,Greenhouse effect remains at a level of guess/conjecture. The “pause” keeps such nonsense from being promoted to even hypothesis!
      OTOH ‘climate science’ cannot be presented as any hard science. Meteorology must remain in the realm of the political\social sciences. Meteorology remains as weather reporting with useful societal benefits. However in the very profitable realm of ‘why is there weather\climate’, academic meteorology cannot afford to employ the scientific method!

      “So now my confusion. The alarmist have the theory, the sceptics are trying to falsify it, which in turn would validate the theory but my common sense tells me that is not right… Surely it is as simple as “ it’s your theory mate, you must prove it, while I have a cup tea”…Would anyone care to try and help me, obviously in the simplest of terms?”

      You have just stated the simplest terms “ it’s your theory conjecture mate, you must prove it, while I have a cup tea”. To be fair consider the compound difficulty with CAGW:
      There exists the claim that all bodies (matter) with temperature, radiate EMR flux proportional to its own T^4 independent of opposing environment. Such has never been observed, nor measured. Such cannot be “falsified” as an intentionally broken (S-B) equation allows for such trivial claims, this scientific corruption is now taught in modern (post 1964) thermodynamics. All of Planck’s effort was based on determining maximum thermal ‘specific intensity’, now called ‘spectral radiance’. This is not a flux but a maximum potential for electromagnetic emission given no opposing ‘spectral radiance’ by the environment.
      What happens with opposing ‘spectral radiance’; the whole original S-B equation gives the maximum wide band thermal EMR flux possible between infinite parallel flat surfaces, separated by vacuum, at any two temperatures. The (two T^4 terms enclosed in parenthesis) must be evaluated first to give a magnitude and direction of the difference in maximum radiance term. At equal temperature that magnitude must be precisely zero. This value is then scaled by (sigma) 5.67 x 10^8 and\times a complex spectral emissivity (epsilon) between 0..1, to result in the correct one way flux. This very value is demonstrated day in laboratories throughout the world. As an aside, that (epsilon) of (1) remains an asymptote, to be approached but never achieved! What may happen in a translucent volume, such as Earth’s atmosphere has not been scientifically investigated. Engineers understand, academics have not a clue!
      The claims by alarmist of atmospheric CO2 of absorption of EMR flux never even emitted; gives rise to alarmist claim of ‘mid troposphere tropical warming’ and “back radiation”!! Such also has never been observed nor measured.
      All the best! -will-

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      • #

        demonstrated day demonstrated every day :-)

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      • #
        aussiepete

        Thank you Will, for the detailed explanation, most of which I have more or less understood at least in principle. It is good to have it consolidated in the way that you have and I will keep it as a reference.

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        • #

          Cheers aussiepete :-) I do not know! I try to comprehend this plus the sheer vastness of the unknown. Such only increases with every attempt at learning! Can I ever give up?

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          • #
            KinkyKeith

            The S_B equation must be tuned to the system that it’s being used to describe. Such tuning has not been done and cannot be done on the system that it is supposed to to be describing.

            You cannot have any valid application of that equation to a system where measurement is nigh on impossible or even imbecilic. Back radiation, as proposed by the climate change elites, is a nonsense concept given a shred of credibility through the misapplication of the SB equation.

            KK

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              KinkyKeith January 9, 2017 at 6:31 am ·

              “You cannot have any valid application of that equation to a system where measurement is nigh on impossible or even imbecilic.”

              Such measurement is done but very much ignored by the 97%. In any IR band the radiance from zenith is everywhere somewhat less than that from nadir. At 45° latitude the low level air, from the westerlies, can have a higher radiance than the ocean surface, (evaporation). However the difference (down minus up) always increases with increasing altitude. Thus the radiative flux to space always increases with increasing altitude. Just what is being absorbed by CO2, CH4, and even SF6.

              “Back radiation, as proposed by the climate change elites, is a nonsense concept given a shred of credibility through the misapplication of the SB equation. KK”

              PHD lecturers like T. Folkerts and J. Shore actually brainwash their innocent students in the two stream approach, as that is how they were brainwashed. If the only education is to get correct answers on midterms and finals, the answer is the same for two surfaces separated by vacuum. Add a bit of matter between those two surface and the poor students become hopelessly confused.
              All the best! -will-

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              • #
                KinkyKeith

                Thanks Will

                Measurement may be done but I suspect that it is of little use in trying to apply the data to an SB equation and then linking any “results” to the dreaded CO2 gas or more accurately the human origin component of that gas.

                Those proposing to use the SB equation in this set-up are simply using it to create the impression of scientific method which does not exist.

                KK

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    • #
      Lewis P Buckingham

      The scientific climate problem can be tested by setting up the Null Hypothesis to test the theory of AGW.
      Simply stated the Null Hypothesis is
      There is no difference between the rate of warming since the Little Ice Age that would have occurred due to natural climate change than that caused by natural plus Anthropogenic Climate Change driven by CO2 emissions.
      The purpose of the test is to disprove the null hypothesis.
      The Global Climate Models show us a predicted steep temperature rise due to CO2.
      But this did not happen.
      They are continually being tuned to the past to make them predictive, and the predictions are continually being reduced.
      They failed to predict the pause, when 1/3 of all anthropogenic CO2 was pushed into the atmosphere.When one sets up hypothesis to be honest, one sets a time frame in which the test will be run and decide BEFORE the results are out, what significance will be drawn from the results.
      Before the pause I thought that the predictions could be right and acted accordingly.
      After the data came in, 18 years later, I changed my mind.
      You have to follow the data.
      Whole societies of mankind have done so.
      We are just behind in the hunt.
      There is information being published on this all the time.
      Judith Curry or Watts Up With That allows for discussion and debate.
      If you are an Australian our next problem is the integrity of our power grid, starting with SA.
      The electrons don’t know about the misconceptions of our political classes.

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      • #

        Lewis P Buckingham January 8, 2017 at 2:08 pm ·

        “The scientific climate problem can be tested by setting up the Null Hypothesis to test the theory of AGW. Simply stated the Null Hypothesis is
        There is no difference between the rate of warming since the Little Ice Age that would have occurred due to natural climate change than that caused by natural plus Anthropogenic Climate Change driven by CO2 emissions.”

        Such cannot be done as your ‘theory of AGW’, is not scientific Theory, Hypothesis, Conjecture, or even Guess! Such is but SCAM for political or financial gain by very few. The popularity of the SCAM is vastly promoted by greens, UN Soylent Marxists, and many ‘politically correct’ juveniles in densely populated US coastal cities. Is there any sanity left among earthlings?
        All the best! -will-

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  • #
    Ruairi

    Man’s CO2 does not produce the haze,
    Of smog, polluting China’s skies for days.

    Another blackout in the S.A. state,
    About the fifth shutdown this year of late.

    Some bureaucrats are politicians’ tools,
    Who threaten staff with silly warmist rules.

    More skeptics in high office for each state,
    Would really help to make the U.S. great.

    In Victoria, a massive building grant,
    Is spent to build an unused desal plant.

    With Sydney for example, warmists bend,
    Mann’s hockey stick to claim a warming trend.

    A broken part or some unknown fault,
    Brings tidal turbine power to a halt.

    A college boss who heeds Mann’s hockey stick,
    Would not promote a skeptic as first pick.

    The warmists, all at sea, will clutch at straws,
    In desperation, to refute the Pause.

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    • #
      Roy Hogue

      More skeptics in high office for each state,
      Would really help to make the U.S. great.

      Be careful now. Heresy is frowned on in many states. And it doesn’t matter if you’re correct or not. ;-)

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      • #

        Roy Hogue January 8, 2017 at 5:00 am

        More skeptics in high office for each state,
        Would really help to make the U.S. great.

        “Be careful now. Heresy is frowned on in many states. And it doesn’t matter if you’re correct or not.”

        You seem to forget that US peasants remain armed as the US militia! Many of these peasants are ex-military, much more qualified at obtaining (stealing), then effectively using military weapons in self-deference, than all goons, police, or others hired by the “ELITE”!
        To be sure, those hired by the ‘elite’ for protection, remain the greatest threat to any of the ‘elite’.
        You only have to review Human history.

        21

        • #
          Roy Hogue

          Forgive my ignorance if that’s what it is. But I don’t get your point.

          There is no real chance that armed citizens can overpower the U.S. government if that’s what you’re implying.

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          • #

            Roy Hogue January 9, 2017 at 4:57 am ·

            “There is no real chance that armed citizens can overpower the U.S. government if that’s what you’re implying.”

            There is no need for that. The police and armed forces, (hired protectors of the elite), very well understand the power and violence of an armed mob. They, (the hired), are the threat to the elite, and will take out those inciting that mob. What that mob does after that is still very worrisome.

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    • #
      Andrew McRae

      A reminder of what real pollution in China looks like
      http://imgur.com/gallery/VMk0d

      10

  • #
    Fuel Filter

    Just want to thank all here for the upvotes to my post.

    I live in Southern California (North San Deigo county) and have looked into living in OZ (retired Special Ed teacher with a ton of successful experience in behavior mod). I would love to flee Mexifornia.

    You guys certantly don’t make it easy to do so.

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    • #
      James Bradley

      Hi Fuel Filter,

      I’d advise you stay in the US atm – Trump will be good for America and good for the world.

      Until Australia manages to elect a conservative government – steer clear of us.

      We really need Europe to topple the progressives in Germany and France to start an avalanche before Australian politicians develop the backbone to say what they think… but we do have hope – we have Pauline Hansen’s One Nation.

      After all the ABC joked about her becoming Prime Minister one day – so it will probably happen.

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      • #
        el gordo

        ‘Until Australia manages to elect a conservative government ….’

        Of course we have a centre right conservative government in power and what we need is for our PM to be humiliated before his term is up.

        The Trump Effect will have huge ramifications around the world.

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    • #
      Marcus

      …Hey..F.F.. What is wrong with Canada..? All the MSM say we will be snow AND ice free in the next few months…AND all the Hollywood elite moved here after President Elect Trump’s Catastrophic Russian supported election… just like they promised…Oh wait…..Never mind..They didn’t move here and it is still $#%@*&^ cold in Ontario…!! Please send any warmth you can spare…Think of the frozen chickens !!

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  • #
    Dave in the States

    My BS alarm has been sounding off the last few days. Today the official low temperature here was 3 degrees F above zero. My thermometer had -23 degrees below zero. I can accept that my thermometer may not be 100% accurate, but by 26 degrees? Meanwhile, a location 35 miles to the West had -25 degrees F officially, a location 25 miles to the North had – 33 degrees F, and another location 50 miles to the north had -35 degrees F. And that’s if those official temps are even correct. So we were warmer by Approx. 30 degrees than everywhere around us? Come on. Yesterday the official temps for those locations understated actual temperatures by an average of 10 degrees F. Our they just making up what is reported and thus recorded?

    At some time during the 90s the weather station for our location was relocated to the new airport west of town up on a hill. Since then it averages 7 degrees higher temperatures than the historical data sets for this location.

    Additionally also about 7 degrees higher than what most people’s thermometers register. Coincidence? I know that modern electronic thermometers register slightly higher temps than old fashioned mercury thermometers, but the disparity between official temperatures and what everybody else’s read is notable and fairly consistent over time. Not to mention historical data sets to the more recent data sets will surely show a false warming trend. And that’s before tampering with the data to show expected warming. I don’t think this location is unique. Talking to a friend 35 miles to the East, he reports similar disparities.

    I suspect that the US land temperature data sets over the last two decades is largely junk.

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    • #
      Dave in the States

      Are instead of our, and are instead of is of course.

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    • #
      Marcus

      ..Dave, maybe F degrees and C degrees are being mixed ..?

      50

      • #

        -23 C is -9.4 F.

        I know that modern electronic thermometers register slightly higher temps than old fashioned mercury thermometers,

        Should also show lower minimums for the same reasons they show higher maximums.
        Wait a day or two and see if the QA process deletes or alters that number. We often see bizarre numbers disappear after a few days here. Sadly some stay.
        http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3129

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      • #
        Philip Mulholland

        Marcus,
        I think you’re right (see my comment to Dave below).
        The need to check for changed scales and datum is a critical QC issue for any geoscience dataset and particularly so for temperature data.
        Converting degrees C to degrees F is a two-step process, first change the scale ratio (multiple C by 1.8) then change the datum (add +32F). If you forget to change the scale from C to F and simply add the datum F to the unscaled value of C then the error Dave is reporting can be explained.

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      The freezing point of water is only a made up number.

      Assign it any value you like to it, put your name on it, and become famous like Mr Fahrenheit or Ms Celsius.

      But you cannot name it after Dr Absolute, because I have already claimed that one for myself. It sounds like a bad villain in spoof spy movie. Choice.

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      • #
        Yonniestone

        “spoof spy movie”, are they like the spoof climate movies spat out over the past decade?

        20

      • #

        Rereke Whakaaro January 8, 2017 at 7:42 am

        “The freezing point of water is only a made up number. Assign it any value you like to it, put your name on it, and become famous like Mr Fahrenheit or Ms Celsius.”

        That is why the determination to establish the scientific (measurable) location of one (1) Kelvin! Just as far from zero, as far from infinity.

        “But you cannot name it after Dr Absolute, because I have already claimed that one for myself. It sounds like a bad villain in spoof spy movie. Choice.”

        Are all bad villains asymptotes, as you now claim to be? :-)

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        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          Well, let me put it this way: I would not let asymptotes breed. The world is going down hill fast enough as it is. Baby asymptotes are almost indistinguishable from a straight line. It is only when they get larger can you see their true nature, which is somewhat bent; more so, around spring.

          10

          • #

            Have you cut off your own dick? :-) ….Do you mean springs (bouncy) or the contorted helix we are bound to in the progression of the Solar system through our Galaxy as the Universe is still expanding?

            11

    • #
      David Maddison

      Maybe they are “homigenising” in real time now.

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    • #
      Philip Mulholland

      Hi Dave,
      If I understand you right the temperature reading in your outside yard is -23F. This is the same temperature as -30.5C.
      Let’s assume that the official thermometer measurement is made in degrees C and the official reading is -29C, which is the same as -20.2F (so slightly warmer than your yard but still pretty darn cold).
      Now let us guess that the -29C temperature has been expressed in degrees below freezing (+32F), just as if it was a Fahrenheit measurement.
      Now -29 plus +32 equals +3.
      So there you have it! Temperatures are being measure in degrees C and are being reported as degrees below freezing, as if the freezing point of water is +32C.
      That’s the best I can do to help, but this is so stupid it hurts.

      30

  • #
    warcroft

    The latest climate change posts on Reddit.com/r/science that readers like to circle jerk over:

    A new technique to guess the weather!
    Study finds more extreme storms ahead for California. New technique predicts frequency of heavy precipitation with global warming.

    You know what I hate about climate change papers? They always read like someone has vomited a bunch climate change buzz words into the document.
    Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate

    Look, another “new research predicts”!
    New research predicts the future of coral reefs under climate change

    The Antarctic is all the rage right now. Well, being summer and all…
    Antarctic ice sheet discharge driven by atmosphere-ocean feedbacks at the Last Glacial Termination

    Nope. Sorry Jo and co. You’re all wrong.
    Researchers have confirmed in a new study that there was no global warming hiatus.
    That’s it. Pack your bags.

    A thought-provoking new study!? A corrected model!? “…the world — could collapse”!? (completely taken out of context)
    Scientists say the global ocean circulation may be more vulnerable to shutdown than we thought!?

    Their droughts are much greener than our ones.
    Warmer Ocean Waters Seen to Spur Drought in Africa.

    “This particular scenario wouldn’t happen for hundreds of years — if it happens at all,” but… computer models, predicting Earth’s climate future, DIRE CONSEQUENCES!!!
    Climate Change Could Trigger Collapse of Major Ocean Current
    Just once Id love to see a climate change article say something like: Change WILL Trigger Collapse of Major Ocean Current!
    But they always throw in ‘could’ or ‘might’ or ‘models predict’. Climate scientists have no balls.

    See? Again. “Model suggests.”
    Climate Model Suggests Collapse of Atlantic Circulation is Possible

    Oh the coral again.
    99% of coral reefs to be impacted by climate change, study says.
    For dramatic effect… 99% of coral reefs WILL be impacted by climate change! Study confirms!
    See? It would be much more exciting if climate scientists just let it all hang out there.

    [This probably went into moderation because of the number of external links because I can't see anything wrong with it otherwise.] AZ

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    • #
      Annie

      Oh yes, all the irritating, meaningless buzz words and phrases! Teeth grinding stuff isn’t it?

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    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      … Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate.

      Does that come in different colour-ways, and a range of sizes? Can you get a Pacific flavoured overturning circulation, if so what does it sound like?

      10

  • #
    Robert O

    The performance of Wind Energy in Eastern Aust. for July-Dec. 2016

    The electricity grid in Eastern Australia is interconnected with input from coal,gas,diesel, hydro, and wind generators, plus some minor input including solar farms and housetop solar PV systems.

    For the past 6 months the weather has been quite cold with a lot of wind and rain due to the frontal systems passing along the southern coast.

    Using the AMENO site, average monthly generation has been calculated for this period taking the peaks and troughs of the MW data; the averages given represent from 15 to 25 estimates for each month. As well, the number of times generation was less than 500 MW was noted for each month. The nameplate capacity of the windfarms in the system is 3891 MW.

    These data are:

    Month……..Average Production……<500MW…… Capacity Factor

    July…………1650 MW………….. 4 times………41%
    August……….1310 MW……………8 times………34%
    September…….1510 MW……………9 times………38%
    October………1660 MW……………7 times………42%
    November……..1260 MW……………8 times………32%
    December……..1080 MW…………..11 times………28%

    There is a pattern of higher production from the windfarms during the winter months, between 1300 and 1600 MW, and decreasing to 1000 MW as Summer approaches. During March and April a capacity factor of 23% was previously noted.

    As well there is a trend for more quiet periods as Summer approaches with periods with generation of less than 500 MW being noted.

    Although periods with less than 500 MW production were noted, on several occasions it got as low as 200 MW illustrating the inability of the windfarms to produce reliable 24/7 industrial power and the need for substantial back-up generation, or gas fired generators.

    Looking at the King Is. renewable energy project, although its wind turbines can supply the island's needs some of the time, the diesel generators are used about 70% of the time, and this would be an indication of the back-up generation needed to keep the lights on when the coal generators are switched off.

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    • #
      Graeme No.3

      South Australia relies on the wind turbines to supply during peak demand in hot weather. Seems they, or at least their stupid and incompetent government, are backing a dead donkey.

      Incidentally, it will be interesting to see the next polls for the State. I suspect that Labor may have trouble maintaining the 35% first preference vote.

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      • #
        Robert O

        Graeme, the question really is “what are the S. Aust. folk going to do when wind generation is zero, or even negative? Cannot blame it on a failed interconnector, or transmission failures all the time. So they are in a perilous situation, too little wind and no useful power, too hot and Vic. will need it own coal production to keep the A/C on for the Melbourne latte set, and too much wind the turbines have to shut down or self-destruct and the transmission lines fail.

        It is predictable, but only the blind cannot see and as for the Hon. Mr. Pyne’s submarine production, too many MW required to weld on a quiet day.

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        • #
          tom0mason

          But you don’t understand it all works perfectly on the models after the ‘smart’ grid is fully implemented.
          Yep, then the customer demand will be made to match the generated capacity. Then everyone will be happy with their remotely controlled appliances, living on free energy!

          Well maybe as long as the wind blows, as long as there are no hardware or software problems because as we have found out the system will fail safe — very very safe.

          /sarcoff

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    • #
      Rod Stuart

      A friend in Alberta alerted me to an excellent blog with a wealth of information about the follies they call wind.
      The blogger is one Wayne Gulden and is from Ohio.

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    • #
      Analitik

      Wind generation across the NEM (ie Australia ex-WA) is around 10% of nameplate this morning and has been pretty much 20% or less since 6am Sunday AEST

      So much for the wind always blowing “somewhere”

      SA wind capacity has been about half that for the same period (10% or less for most of the period since 6am Sunday and around 5% for a lot of that period)

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      • #
        Analitik

        SA wind farms generating about 0 MW (from 1576 MW nameplate capacity) 10:50am AEST – ZERO capacity!

        Vic 30 MW from 1485 MW nameplate capacity – 2.0% capacity
        Almost all of this is from one wind farm (Macarthur 420 MW so 7.1% capacity) so the remaining 1065 MW is effectively producing ZERO.

        NEM 220 MW from 3891 MW nameplate capacity – 5.7% capacity

        Weatherill, Koutsantonis, Andrews, D’Ambrosio, Frydenberg WAKE UP!

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        • #
          Robert O

          Anatilik, although it defies logic it just demonstrates that these political folk are scientifically illiterate and are motivated by the opinion of soothsayers. Come D Day it will be everybody else’s fault and not theirs.

          But think about a little, we are talking about something pretty straight forward for someone with a little scientific knowledge. However, what do they know about other fields of endeavour, probably not much more, frightening

          10

      • #
        Analitik

        My apologies – the times I’m quoting are AEDST (I forgot to allow for Vic having daylight savings)

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  • #
    Robert Rosicka

    Meanwhile in the republic of victoriastan I have came across some propaganda in my local rag maybe from our glorious leader what do you think.

    The authorities are like unions
    They are not the enemy
    Their role is to bring peace
    To the chaos of life.
    Don’t believe everything
    You hear.
    The minimum wage is
    $17.70 per hour
    Enjoy .

    If you leave the last three lines out sounds like something from Kim Jong ung .
    Can someone decipher this message please .

    20

    • #
      Yonniestone

      As a citizen of Victoriastan any MSM rag is going to be filled with Cultural Marxism as objective thinking has become thought crime.

      As a patriot to the original values of my country I ignore such scribble and support the new free press on the internet while engaging any opponents of my freedoms publicly.

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      • #
        Robert Rosicka

        I agree Yonnistone , I wrote a letter to the editor after a couple of watermelons had a go at some guy who questioned SA renewable fiasco and the blackout , they accused him of the usual and maintained that renewables had nothing to do with the blackout .
        I suggested they read the last interim report by the AEMO and pointed out a few facts etc but to my horror my article had been so heavily edited the only part I recognised was my name .

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  • #
    James Bradley

    World leading Cryonics facility to be built in NSW in 2017.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/science/human-body/southern-cryonics-plans-to-break-ground-on-worldleading-nsw-facility-in-2017/news-story/145d76fec25f4827b229fb09e29579e3

    Should appeal to the Greenies – let’s hope they rely on renewables

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    • #
      AndyG55

      “Should appeal to the Greenies “

      They’ll be able to keep their brains in suspended animation, even after they die !! :-)

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        Andy,

        I very rarely give up-ticks, and never before, have I given one to you. Your comment was extremely droll. I doubt it will happen again.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      The real problem with cryonic storage is that the brain dies quickly after it stops being oxygenated and the body is not frozen before this happens, so the rest of the body -might- be revived in the future but the brain will be dead. Of course, that won’t matter for some.

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  • #
    Oliver K. Manuel

    Thank you for another opportunity to openly express evolving insights into the origin and evolution of humanity on a water-covered planet exactly one (1) AU (astronomical unit) from a powerful source of energy that inexplicably endowed humanity with inalienable rights to enjoy life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness, as Thomas Jefferson publicly recorded on 4 July 1776.

    But the evolution of humanity was disrupted by the good/mis- fortune of Einstein’s discovery in 1905 that rest mass (m) is stored energy (E):

    . . . . . . . E = mc^2

    Einstein’s discovery explained why the whole universe is alive, humming with a fundamental vibration that had been realized decades earlier in deep meditation as ommmmmm . . .

    After Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed on 6 & 9 Aug 1945, independently nations and national academies of sciences were united on 24 Oct 1945 in a desperate attempt by world leaders to protect themselves and the world from nuclear annihilation by hiding the source of energy that powers atomic bombs, the Sun, galactic cores, and the expanding universe from the public:

    https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2016/12/31/warning-to-trump-dont-approve-gmo-pesticide-fda-horror-show/#comment-199361

    That is how Einstein’s 1905 discovery disrupted upward evolution and enslaved all of humanity.

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    David Maddison

    Awesome video – variation of the domino effect but watch what happens at the end.

    https://www.facebook.com/aussiespirits/videos/1808445252727983/

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  • #
    Mark M

    These people faced some sort of apocalypse:

    “The revelation of an ancient city in a valley in the Mosquitia mountains, of Honduras, one of the last scientifically unexplored regions on Earth, was a different story.

    This was the first time a large archaeological site had been discovered in a purely speculative search using a technology called lidar, or “light detection and ranging,” which can map terrain through the thickest jungle foliage …

    As a result, this discovery revealed something vanishingly rare: a city in an absolutely intact, undisturbed, pristine state, buried in a rain forest so remote and untouched that the animals there appeared never to have seen people before.

    Around 1500, something catastrophic appeared to have happened in T1 that triggered the abandonment of the city, with the survivors leaving this cache as a final offering to their gods before they departed. ”

    Video available at link: http://www.newyorker.com/tech/elements/an-ancient-city-emerges-in-a-remote-rain-forest

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  • #
    David Maddison

    How quickly do you think the world will follow President Trump once he gets to work on abandoning “renewables”?

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    • #

      “How quickly do you think the world will follow President Trump once he gets to work on abandoning “renewables”?”

      Are renew-ables that which is way, way inferior to storing from sunlight power, the carbon producing plants, ferns and broadleafs that automagically convert to COAL energy if not previously oxidized back to CO2?
      All; the best! -will-

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  • #
    Peter C

    My Skermish with the Green Blob.

    Dr Nicholas Aberle is the Press Officer and Campaign Manager for Environment Victoria (a Not for Profit Organisation which has been pushing the Victorian Government to close the Hazlewood Power Station).
    http://environmentvictoria.org.au/
    Dr Aberle has a law degree from Melbourne University and a Phd in Chemistry/chemical biology
    https://au.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-aberle-93393841

    From: Peter C
    Sent: Wednesday, December 21, 2016 10:39:24 PM
    To: Nicholas Aberle
    Subject: Hazelwood Power Station

    Why is the Hazelwood Power Stations described as Dirty?

    Nicholas Aberle
    Hi Peter,
    In short, because it produces an extremely high amount of CO2 pollution for the amount of electricity it generates. It has by far the highest “emissions intensity” of Australia’s power stations (and is up there with the worst in the world).
    When people describe sources of electricity that produces much less CO2 per MWh, they call it ‘clean’. So it makes perfect sense to refer to Hazelwood and other brown coal power stations as ‘dirty’.
    Regards,
    Nick.

    Peter C

    Thanks Nick for your reply.
    It makes No Sense to me. That is Sophistry. I do not accept that CO2 is pollution because it isn’t.

    Nicholas Aberle
    Hi Peter,
    I’d define a pollutant as something that is emitted into the environment that causes an undesired effect. To my mind, and to the minds of every credible scientist on the planet, CO2 ticks that box pretty comfortably. Don’t buy into the “colourless, odourless” stuff.
    Cheers, Nick.

    Peter C

    Oh,
    thanks Nick.

    Unintended consequences are greening of the Earth as demonstrated by satellite imaging. I don’t think that is pollution.

    So called global warming is due to natural variability. Any effect of CO2 is zero or negligible.

    “credible scientist” should be a tautology but it is an oxymoron when it comes to Climate Science. I nominate Dyson Freeman (sic), David Bellamy and Roy Spencer as credible scientists in this area.

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    David Maddison

    This carving of a large iceberg is being interpreted as evidence of an environmental disaster. Warmists will have to find “safe spaces”, no doubt.

    http://www.sciencealert.com/an-iceberg-the-size-of-delaware-is-about-to-break-off-from-antarctica-and-it-s-really-bad-news

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    • #
      el gordo

      ‘When it splits off as an iceberg, it is expected to be one of the 10 largest ever recorded on the planet. ‘

      That might be true, the others were in the 19th and early 20th centuries.

      For the lurkers here, CO2 is irrelevant in iceberg discharge, the most likely cause is the strengthening of the western circulation and the shifting of the westerly wind belt northward.

      Beyond that, check out the length of day (LOD).

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    • #
    • #
      Rick Will

      The reporting is not as scare-mongering as in the past. This is a quote from the site:
      “We would expect in the ensuing months to years further calving events, and maybe an eventual collapse – but it’s a very hard thing to predict, and our models say it will be less stable; not that it will immediately collapse or anything like that.”

      Previously this would have been presented as a dire event and the end of the world just around the corner.

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    • #
      gorgiasl

      Apologies, my comment (#26.1) was meant to respond to this.

      What we are seeing at Larsen C is an example of a Weddell polynya – an infrequent but not rare event. See the reference to the Holland paper in comment 26.1.

      Interestingly (to me at least) notwithstanding the scientific evidence for polynyas, which demonstrates that they are not related to global warming, a 2014 alarmist paper “Cessation of deep convection in the open Southern Ocean under anthropogenic climate change” (Nature Climate Change 4, 278–282 (2014)) suggests that global warming was reducing the likelihood of reoccurrence of Weddell polynyas – the study was reported here

      20

  • #
    pat

    The Frigid 48: U.S. Average Temperature 11 deg. F
    January 7th, 2017 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
    As predicted here ten days ago, portions of all of the Lower 48 states are below 32 deg. F at 6 a.m. EST this morning (animation here)…
    The spatial average temperature over the Lower 48 at 6 a.m. is 11 deg. F, which is fully 9 deg. (!) colder than at any time last winter (20 deg. F) which occurred twice in January of 2016…
    http://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/01/the-frigid-48-u-s-average-temperature-11-deg-f/

    from COMMENTS: Greg: It is not below freezing in Florida, 44 in north florida.
    reply from: Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D. says:
    January 7, 2017 at 6:53 AM
    there are 5 stations in the panhandle which are 28-30 deg. F.
    http://www.weatherstreet.com/states/Florida-weather.htm

    40

    • #
      Gorgiasl

      It’s the Waddell Polynya, well described by David Holland in this paper:

      Science. 2001 Jun 1;292(5522):1697-700.
      Explaining the Weddell Polynya–a large ocean eddy shed at Maud Rise.

      Holland DM

      Author information
      1Center for Atmosphere-Ocean Science, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences and Faculty of Arts and Science, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA. holland@cims.nyu.edu

      Abstract
      Satellite observations have shown the occasional occurrence of a large opening in the sea-ice cover of the Weddell Sea, Antarctica, a phenomenon known as the Weddell Polynya. The transient appearance, position, size, and shape of the polynya is explained here by a mechanism by which modest variations in the large-scale oceanic flow past the Maud Rise seamount cause a horizontal cyclonic eddy to be shed from its northeast flank. The shed eddy transmits a divergent Ekman stress into the sea ice, leading to a crescent-shaped opening in the pack. Atmospheric thermodynamical interaction further enhances the opening by inducing oceanic convection. A sea-ice-ocean computer model simulation vividly demonstrates how this mechanism fully accounts for the characteristics that mark Weddell Polynya events.

      It is well worth reading Holland’s entire paper. The Weddell Polyna is not rare, just a relatively infrequent event. It seems that the first satellite observation in the early 70′s started to focus scientific attention on the phenomena. Despite warmist claims, it is not a consequence of global warming and has been a regular but infrequent occuyrrence forever.

      A more current article from NASA can be found here

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        Gorgiasl

        Sorry “Weddell” Polyna

        Fat fingers and iPads

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        Rick Will

        The word “forever” overstates the likely period. The full southern ocean circulation started 41Ma ago when Drake’s Passage formed. I have not seen the modelling but I suspect it relies on the circumpolar current to form the eddy.

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    David Maddison

    No need to worry folks. The city of Townsville doesn’t need a coal fired power station. It can run on solar farms.

    http://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/national/renewed-push-for-coalfired-baseload-power-station-in-north-queensland-too-late/news-story/cd8aaf3b1a3d07e77c0dbd1179f81bd6

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    David Maddison

    This is the story claiming that there really was no pause. They are getting more desperate all the time.

    http://www.sciencealert.com/that-global-warming-hiatus-never-actually-happened-study-confirms

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      el gordo

      This is from the abstract, the smartest ploy yet.

      ‘We find a large cooling bias in ERSST version 3b and smaller but significant cooling biases in HadSST3 and COBE-SST from 2003 to the present, with respect to most series examined. These results suggest that reported rates of SST warming in recent years have been underestimated in these three data sets.’

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    PeterS

    With so much bad news lately over the Liberals (aka snowflakes, socialists, leftists, etc.) in the US it’s about time the Liberal Party here changed their name to something else. Despite the fact Liberal here does not have the same meaning as Liberal in the US and pretty much everywhere else in the world, I suspect once Trump gets started the tag “Liberal” will be a dirty word along with terrorist, communist, NWO elitist and many more. Better still let’s scrap the Liberal Party and have a new party without the nonsense politicians like Turnbull etal. It’s a win-win.

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      el gordo

      “I need to be a catalyst for change.”

      Cory Bernardi

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        Dennis

        The change needed should be within, starting at the top within Liberal Party HQ executive.

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          Dennis

          I read recently that the wife of a senior NSW Liberal HQ executive resigned from her position there in protest regarding the lack of progress (her view) on climate change agenda.

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        Dennis

        The change needed should be within, starting at the top within Liberal Party HQ executive.

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          AndyG55

          Right at the top !! :-)

          Until they cut the head off the leftist **** that infests the Turnbull Party, they will not be the Liberal Party.

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            Dennis

            A Photo opportunity

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            PeterS

            True but it’s not going to happen since the Liberal Party is now so settled with Turnbull. So the only real option is for a new party to be formed to smash the old and demented party.

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      gnome

      Liberal – concerned with freedom, stuff like small government, deregulation, individual freedom etc. Some long-dead pom coined the term for an individualistic political philosophy.

      Who would want to be responsible for how our US brethren use what they so innocently term the English language? They could care less when they couldn’t, they pull their cars up to the curb, and they side their houses with aluminum!

      You can understand it, but it isn’t English.

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    David Maddison

    With all the heat anyone taking bets on if or when the SA grid will go down?

    I guess the chance is less now than after April when they close Hazelwood.

    Also, VIC’s aluminium smelter is mostly offline (37% capacity) so that act of deindustrialisation will save some power…

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      Analitik

      Yesterday’s conditions could have been dicey if it occurred during the week. Luckily the cool change came through around 6pm as the wind farms have gone to sleep this morning (around 5% capacity since around 8am).

      The forecast for next week doesn’t look too threatening, heat-wise, although the synoptic forecast shows a couple more high pressure systems drifting across again so wind output should be fairly low.

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      Mark M

      Having sacrificed their coal-fired power stations on the altar of green renewables, you could be forgiven for expecting no more heat waves.

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    pat

    as the FakeNewsMSM is still running the Clinton/Dems/Progressive? line on this, it’s worth noting:

    7 Jan: SputnikNews: Cassandra Fairbanks: Shocker: ‘Proof’ of Russia’s Trump Support Was Compiled During Obama’s Election
    A highly-anticipated declassified US intelligence report, aimed to prove that Russia supported Donald Trump, has turned out to be a huge embarrassment. The annex that contained factual material that was thought to provide evidence of RT influencing the American public was compiled in December 2012, right after the reelection of Barack Obama.
    The report focuses on television shows and interviews that took place four years before Trump was elected, and well before he was even a politician.
    In Annex A of the report, intelligence agencies claim that “Kremlin’s TV Seeks To Influence Politics, Fuel Discontent in US.” Buried at the bottom of that page is a note stating, “This annex was originally published on 11 December 2012 by the Open Source Center, now the Open Source Enterprise.”…
    The report states that the network aired a documentary on Occupy Wall Street, an obviously left-wing movement, in 2012. Again, this was the year Obama was elected, so perhaps the Russians actually won HIM the presidency….READ ON
    https://sputniknews.com/us/201701071049343650-us-intelligence-report-obama-election/

    of course, we should be having investigations into the following…AND the FakeNewsMSM being totally in the tank for Clinton in the US election:

    22 Oct: Breitbart: Jerome Hudson: Schweizer: WikiLeaks Show How Clinton Campaign Chair John Podesta Became ‘Business Partners with Vladimir Putin’
    Breitbart News Editor-at-Large, Clinton Cash author, and Government Accountability Institute president Peter Schweizer told Breitbart News Daily SiriusXM host Matthew Boyle on Saturday, “The Podesta emails show stunning facts that are very troubling and that show that pay-to-play was widespread in the Clinton Foundation.”
    Schweizer said one of the most stunning revelations uncovered by the WikiLeaks email dumps was that found in the internal review of the Clinton Foundation, ordered by Chelsea Clinton, in which auditors noted that “some interviewees reported conflicts of those raising funds or donors, some of whom may have an expectation of quid pro quo benefits in return for gifts.”…
    Schweizer explained the “deep ties” the Clintons have to Russia, specifically how in 2010 then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton approved the sale and transfer of 20% of U.S. uranium output to the Russian government…
    “But the Russian ties go even deeper than that,” Schweizer added, “they go to the Chairman of Hillary Clinton’s campaign, John Podesta.
    Schweizer explained how the Wikileaks emails reveal how Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta secured “75,000 common shares” from his membership on the executive board of an energy company, Joule Unlimited, which received $35 million from a Putin-connected Russian government fund.
    “You literally have the campaign chairman of the Clinton campaign business partners, directly, with Vladimir Putin,” Schweizer said. “When it comes to Russian ties and Russian financial ties, you have to begin with the Clintons.”…
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/10/22/schweizer-wikileaks-show-clinton-campaign-chair-john-podesta-became-business-partners-vladimir-putin/

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      gnome

      What really happened of course, was that Putin told the bureaucracy – “we’ve got to do something to help our candidate Bernie Sanders – release some info on what Clinton is doing”.

      So the hacking department set to work, but they didn’t get the message in time to do Bernie any good.

      A furious Putin then said “stop this anti-Clinton stuff, she is now our candidate”. Not sure if the message has got through yet, but with typical Russian efficiency, it will. Someday.

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    pat

    17 Oct: New American: Bob Adelmann: John Podesta’s Payoff for Helping Hillary Give American Military Technology to Russia’s Putin
    As part of just-inaugurated President Obama’s new foreign policy to improve relations between the United States and Russia, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton met with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in March 2009. Meeting in her hotel’s Salon Panorama in Geneva, she presented him with a small gift box containing a bright red button symbolizing the Obama administration’s desire to “reset” the relationship between the two governments.
    Thus began an effort to transfer American technology to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own “Silicon Valley,” called Skolkovo. In a report released in late July by the Government Accountability Institute (GAI) entitled From Russia With Money, authors Stephen Bannon and Peter Schweitzer reviewed the long sordid history of the technology transfer from companies such as Google, Intel, and Cisco of hi-tech technology with useful military applications. The report quoted warnings from the FBI and the U.S. Army Foreign Military Studies Program at Fort Leavenworth that the transfer would work against American interests. Warned the U.S. Army…
    http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/crime/item/24301-john-podesta-s-payoff-for-helping-hillary-give-american-military-technology-to-russia-s-putin

    7 Jan: Breitbart: Aaron Klein: DNC ‘Russian Hacking’ Conclusion Comes from Google-Linked Firm
    CrowdStrike, the third-party company relied upon by the FBI to make its assessment about alleged Russian hacking into the Democratic National Committee (DNC), was financed to the tune of $100 million from a funding drive last year led by Google Capital.
    Google Capital, which now goes by the name of CapitalG, is an arm of Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company. Eric Schmidt, the chairman of Alphabet, has been a staunch and active supporter of Hillary Clinton and is a longtime donor to the Democratic Party.
    On Thursday, a senior law enforcement official told CNN that the DNC “rebuffed” the agency’s request to physically examine its computer servers after the alleged hacking. Instead, the FBI relied on CrowdStrike’s assessment…
    In November, Google Capital re-branded itself and now goes by the name of CapitalG. It is a venture capital arm of Alphabet Inc…
    Last April, CrowdStrike General Counsel and Chief Risk Officer Steven Chabinsky was appointed to President Obama’s White House Commission on Enhancing National Cybersecurity…
    http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2017/01/06/dnc-russian-hacking-conclusion-comes-google-linked-firm/

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    liberator

    Someone needs to have a chat with Science Babe. I used to like her posts in FB she really gets stuck into BS science and those who don’t science – Food Babe (Vana something,”if a food has a chemical in it and you can’t pronounce it then don’t eat it, no food should have any chemicals in it, did you know the air they pump into an airline cabin contains over 50% nitrogen”? etc etc…” David Wolf etc.

    In a recent FB post she showed that the climate deniers were so wrong on the 18+ year pause. Yes she calls them deniers. A few skeptics posted counter arguments. Her response, its NASA data we do not question NASA. Again a few counter arguments, her response “but NASA.” I dont bother arguing I may just stop following…

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    Boyfromtottenham

    peterS – have you tried using the “incognito browsing” feature of the Chrome browser? Right click on your mouse (don’t know how to do this on an iPad). It works for the SMH, but not for the Australian websites.

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      clipe

      You need to google the article or some text from the article then click on the link within google results.

      Works for the Australian, the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times.

      Doesn’t work for UK’s Times or Telegraph.

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        clipe

        Private/Incognito browsing no longer works with the London Telegraph but does for other newspapers such as scotsman.com (like to keep-up with the stupidity of the never-learners of my old homeland)

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    David Maddison

    Most of these boat and ship launch failures required considerable incompetence, I would suggest.

    https://youtu.be/MGRl6cPl_XE

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    David Maddison

    Here is a refrigerator repair story involving a Fisher and Paykel “french door” fridge. It belongs to a friend and the problem was it was giving an F20 error code. A Google search explains this is a broken wire that goes from a door to the body of the fridge. The wire is evidently for a heating element. The wires were located under the top left hing cover which snaps off. She had previously had this problem repaired several times by a technician sent by F&P for which she paid $400 each time. She wanted me to look at the problem. The wires appeared not to be specially designed to be fatigue resistant, they were just ordinary wires. Previous multiple breaks had been repaired with wire joiners. I removed all evidence of previous repairs and soldered new high quality wires in of similar thickness and hopefully the repair will last a long time. It took me about 30 mins and I think it is outrageous she paid $400 multiple times by the same person for the same repair.

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    • #
      Lewis P Buckingham

      Recently I had to replace a small, about 220 L, fridge.
      I wanted a F@P but there were none available of that size.
      I was thinking buy Australia, or at least NZ free trade zone.
      The old fridge was a Westinghouse, made in NSW.
      None were available.
      The new fridge has a rated capacity of 209 L, which is less than the advertised,about 220l.
      Presumably the advertised size is the external volume dimension.
      It would be good if F@P fixes this almost planned obsolescence.
      We Aussies had a bad experience in the old Telstra Touch Phones with the coiled soft copper receiver extensions, which broke because of metal fatigue.
      It was 1954 when the Comet disaster happened and the wings fell off.
      When will they ever learn?
      The Samsung is going well, and the price was sharp.

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    What happens if we don’t research any! Of those very big rocks spinning around our sun in same orbit as us?
    Isn’t all this flaphing about on climate change in 150 years time a bit mute, if one of these rocks decide to make an arrival (make love!) to planet Earth? ;)

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    pat

    understand this was just big news on Channel 7:

    8 Jan: SMH: Harriett Alexander: Worst year in NSW for salmonella, E. coli as global temperatures increase
    NSW recorded its worst figures in at least five years for diseases caused by food poisoning and mosquito bites, as doctors warn climate change is looming as a public health emergency…
    The figures come in an unusual summer for health threats, with months of wet weather causing a fivefold increase in Ross River virus notifications in the Riverina and the migration of the Irukandji jellyfish as far south as Fraser Island.
    The Royal Australasian College of Physicians [RACP] has released a position paper that described climate change as a “global public health emergency”…
    The World Health Organisation estimates that global warming will cause an extra 250,000 deaths annually between 2030 and 2050…

    Labor’s health spokesman Walt Secord: “Unfortunately, we are seeing diseases associated with the tropics being reported further south, such as the State’s North Coast – and mosquitoes carrying tropical diseases being found in the State’s Central West and in coastal areas.
    “It is mind-boggling that the Liberals and Nationals are still denying the impact of climate change on our health.”…
    Jeremy McAnulty said there was not enough long term data to draw a definitive link between certain diseases and climate change, and even when a trend was detected it was difficult to isolate warm weather as the cause…
    The RACP’s David Harley said it was likely that the risk of certain diseases would increase with global warming.
    “It’s illogical to suggest that the risk won’t change and it’s illogical to suggest that for some diseases the risk won’t increase, but it’s a complicated equation,” he said…
    His own modelling showed dengue fever was likely to become less of a threat in North Queensland as the temperature warmed, but it was possible the optimum conditions for the mosquito would just move south, he said…

    The Climate Council reported last year that there had been a steady increase in the number of deaths in summer over the last four decades, indicating that climate change might already be affecting mortality rates.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/health/worst-year-in-nsw-for-salmonella-e-coli-as-global-temperatures-increase-20170106-gtnfve.html

    am sure other references can be found for irukandji being found south of Fraser Island long ago:

    2008: Lifesaving.com.au: Marine stingers
    These are the box jellyfish and the irukandji…
    Sometimes
    they can been found further south in Moreton Bay, Fraser Island, Sydney and Melbourne…
    http://lifesaving.com.au/wp-content/uploads/SSS-marine-stingers.pdf

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      TdeF

      “as global temperatures increase”

      Where? I read this storyline every day. Now killer jelly fish are moving to the other side of the planet because of the temperature increase? Really? We are talking about 0.22C in an average. Where is this massive increase in temperatures? (Rhetorical question)

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        TdeF

        OMG Mrs Jelly fish, the water is so hot today! Let’s swim to Rottnest island. It’s only 7,000 km and the deep cold arctic waters are just what we need rather than this oppressive hot shallow coastal paradise in the tropics. It’s a short swim. I will bring my compass. Damn this Global Warming.

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          pat

          TdeF -

          I first heard the irukandji moving south story on radio this morning & immediately thought it had been found further south in the past.

          the point i’m trying to make is it’s nothing new for it to be found south of Fraser Island.

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    pat

    While Irukandji syndrome is found primarily in the waters of the Tropic of Capricorn, cases have also been reported in Sydney, Geelong and Rottnest Island. Similar symptom sets have shown up in as diverse locations as North Wales and Waikiki, leading researchers to believe that Irukandji syndrome-causing jellyfish are probably spread throughout the world

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    pat

    don’t know why the url and headline were missing when I just posted this:

    2006: ABC: Stinger Season by Rachel Sullivan
    While Irukandji syndrome is found primarily in the waters of the Tropic of Capricorn, cases have also been reported in Sydney, Geelong and Rottnest Island. Similar symptom sets have shown up in as diverse locations as North Wales and Waikiki, leading researchers to believe that Irukandji syndrome-causing jellyfish are probably spread throughout the world.
    http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2006/01/26/2043031.htm

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    Sunday night thought:

    How many scientists with a PhD have actually studied the philosophy of science?

    It seems to me that such is entirely autodidactic.

    As far as I can tell; extra-curricular for all who undertake studies in the sciences, engineering and mathematics at any level in “higher education”. Please show me that I’m blind.

    Something so fundamental should, IMHO, be taught in high schools; year 10 or earlier.

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    pat

    7 Jan: UK Telegraph: Emily Gosden: Smart meters choir PR stunt hits a bum note with industry critics
    Smart Energy GB, the official campaign to drive take-up of smart gas and electricity meters, has sparked industry debate over its tactics after commissioning a professionally-recorded song about the controversial £11bn scheme.
    The organisation, set up by the Government to raise household awareness and support for smart meters, is funded by levies on energy suppliers, which ultimately pass their costs on to consumers through higher bills…

    Last week, Smart Energy GB revealed it had spent three months training the “world’s first choir of smart meter experts” to sing a song about the roll-out, specially composed by celebrated choirmaster Tim Rhys Evans.
    “Changes”, which features lyrics such as “time for smarter choices”, was recorded at Rockfield Studios, famed for being used by the likes of Oasis and Queen, for release on YouTube and Spotify…

    While some in the industry supported the efforts – with staff from firms including British Gas, E.On and SSE taking part – it is understood some suppliers declined to participate amid concerns about whether it represented a worthwhile use of time and money…
    The video attracted about 1,000 views on YouTube in its first day of release. Due to a glitch, it did not initially appear on Spotify as planned…

    Only about 4m smart meters have been installed to date, representing about 8pc of domestic meters, following delays to the communications infrastructure needed to make the meters function fully…
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/01/07/smart-meters-choir-pr-stunt-hits-bum-note-industry-critics/

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    pat

    8 Jan: UK Times: Aimee Donnellan: Aussies plot to asset strip Green Bank
    Macquarie plans spark fears over cash for renewable energy projects
    The Australian bank has already lined up suitors for some of the Green Investment Bank’s most valuable assets — even though it has yet to seal the £3.8bn takeover.
    The Edinburgh-based lender’s wind farm and biomass projects are understood to be on the block. Macquarie bankers have in recent weeks held talks with a number of potential buyers…
    The programme of sell-offs is likely to amplify concerns over the privatisation of GIB, which was created by former business secretary Sir Vince Cable in 2012 to kickstart the renewable energy industry…
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/aussies-plot-to-asset-strip-green-bank-706th0ghc

    8 Jan: UK Times: Simon Duke: Memo to Greg Clark: vampire kangaroo will dash green hopes
    Even before it has signed on the dotted line, Macquarie is also planning heavy redundancies at the green lender, which was created to turbocharge low-carbon projects in Britain. There’s an unmistakeable whiff of asset-stripping. If the prospect of being short-changed weren’t bad enough, the hollowing out of the Green Investment Bank could endanger the development of Britain’s renewable energy industry…
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/memo-to-greg-clark-vampire-kangaroo-will-dash-green-hopes-78mg0l77m

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    Ian Hill

    It’s sad to learn of the death of Michael Chamberlain, father of Azaria Chamberlain who was taken by a dingo at Ayers Rock in 1980. I always believed Lindy and Michael’s version of events and became an avid sceptic of the Crown’s case that Azaria was murdered. None of the Crown’s story made sense, especially when Michael was supposed to have hidden the baby’s body in his camera bag under his car seat while there was a nurse passenger sitting next to him, where Lindy was supposed to have done the deed. You’d think the nurse would have realised something was wrong with all that alleged blood about. The other ludicrous thing was that they had Lindy breaking the world record for running about 5km to dispose of the baby’s clothing.

    My sister was the opposite – she thought the dingo was innocent until she saw the film “Evil Angels” with me and just went “oh” at one of the campsite scenes. She was instantly converted.

    The hysteria built up by the media over this saga and the consensus by people that “she did it” has parallels with the whole global warming hoax and subsequent fraud.

    10