JoNova

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Weekend Unthreaded

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Weekend Unthreaded, 7.0 out of 10 based on 21 ratings

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92 comments to Weekend Unthreaded

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    pat

    16 Apr: Steven Goddard: A Very Sad Day For Science
    Dr. Bill Gray has passed away. He was my hero, and an inspiration.
    Besides being a top tropical meteorologist and hurricane forecaster, Bill was a man of the highest integrity and character. Bill had his funding cut off by Al Gore in 1993 for refusing to go along with Gore’s global warming politics. Unlike so many others, Bill chose scientific integrity over politics and money, and fought against climate fraud to his last breath.
    I spoke with Bill on Sunday by phone, and his last words to me were “I hear the beer is colder on the other side. We will have to have our next one there.” He kept his great sense of humor right up to the end…READ ON
    https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2016/04/16/a-very-sad-day-for-science/

    16 Apr: Hurricane expert, Dr. William Gray dead at 86
    By Robbin Whachell, The Bahamas Weekly News
    Hurricane expert, Dr. William M. Gray passed away today at age 86. Gray’s death was announced by his former student and close friend Philip Klotzbach on April 16, 2016.
    “It is with great sadness that we have learned of the passing of Dr. William M. Gray. William Mason Gray (Bill) passed away peacefully surrounded by his family on April 16th at the age of 86,” said the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in a statement today.
    “He had remained active in his hurricane and climate change research up until the time of his death.
    “Bill was a faculty member at Colorado State University from 1961 through his formal retirement in 2005. But after retirement, he continued his hurricane and climate research as a Professor Emeritus until his recent passing…
    http://www.thebahamasweekly.com/publish/international/Hurricane_forecasting_expert_Dr_William_Gray_passes_at_8647809.shtml

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  • #

    I’m not sure if it has been mentioned here, but one of the most stupid things evolving in Victoria at the moment is the incremental banning of wood collection in public land. Wood fires are one of the few cost effective heating systems available in regional areas and the intent is to stop all wood collecting in Victoria. One of our local members once said to me that the Greens want to end all wood burning in Victoria and the current government seems to be all too willing to meet this end.

    Just a recent report: http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/news/big-shiver-tipped-after-clampdown-on-wood-collection/news-story/f39018321345dea89e127d4b4d90737f

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    • #

      I got sick of chopping wood to keep warm in WA’s southwest. So I moved to the Tropics and haven’t touched an axe in 30 years! I must have been a ‘climate refugee’.

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      • #
        TdeF

        Anything to maximize the fuel load for the next bush fire.

        Besdies, that’s the bottom line. If you do not like ‘the Climate’, or the water rises slightly or storm frequency changes or you just feel like a change, you can move. However the Green view is that climates should not be allowed to change for any reason, whatever the cost to everyone else.

        Stopping things is all they know. In a Green world there would be no power stations, no dams, no tractors and harvesters, no trucks, no agriculture, no factories, no automation and no change in quality of life. Windmills would be built sustainably from wood and we could knit our own clothes directly from sheep.

        Perversely Greens demand new technologies be developed to solve all their perceived problems while attacking the technologies which solved all the previous problems. Quoting ‘the Science’ and claiming to be progressive, they are very anti Science and anti progress people who want a return to the awful Dark Ages when life was brutal and short and utterly unfair. The people against everything are being feted by both sides of politics in Australia and especially by the man who already has everything, faux PM Malcolm Turnbull for whom the Green vote is a chance to reshape politics and make himself President of a Replublic by edict. His ermine lined cape will not be knitted.

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          Stopping things is all they know. In a Green world there would be no power stations, no dams, no tractors and harvesters, no trucks, no agriculture, no factories, no automation and no change in quality of life. Windmills would be built sustainably from wood and we could knit our own clothes directly from sheep.

          If they get their way with renewables, they will be well on their way to achieving that. Without cheap power, there is no industry, just look at what’s happening in the UK.

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          • #
            PeterS

            That’s the goal by many – the destruction of our industry to bring an end to our Western way of life. I’m surprised so many people don’t see it coming and instead pretend it’s not happening. We might as well get it over and done with – re-introduce a carbon tax and make it so bad it will shut down all our industries that rely on electricity. I wonder if the public will then wake up.

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            • #

              I have a personal opinion here on the assumed goal of the Greens to end industrialisation in the Western World with their bat$hit crazy mad rush to renewables in the vain hope that will do it.

              My opinion is that they are totally and utterly clueless as to what would actually happen. They truly believe that renewables can replace coal fired power. They believe it hand on heart.

              I had a dream, a fervent wish in fact that Hazelwood made the decision to shut up and close down completely. As part of the process, they got in Christine Milne to ceremonially turn off a ‘big red sorry, green switch’ which, connected behind the scenes, started the shut down procedure, and to do it while all the cameras rolled, for as much publicity as possible, you know, Greens standard operating procedure.

              Christine dutifully smiled for the cameras, hit the switch to off saying “That’s one small step for Victoria, and a giant leap for mankind.”

              The cameras rolled for around one minute, the lights flickered and went out, just as Christine said, “What just happened then?”

              Sigh! It was just a dream.

              I’m positive that they have absolutely no idea whatsoever, and when the lights do go out, that last sentence will be all they have to say.

              THAT is what will end The Greens.

              Tony.

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                Another Ian

                Tony

                Nave a (re?)-read of Jeremy Clarkson’s “This has been my perfect week” in “The World According to Clarkson Volume 4. How Hard Can It Be”.

                Written in 2008. He didn’t miss much IMO

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              • #
                Rod Stuart

                Tony when you start dreaming about that ugly old cow from Devonport, you are in trouble my friend.

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                OriginalSteve

                TOny, heres my 2 cents, having worked closely within political circles and seen the lunacy of politics up close…..

                There are always layers of the “onion”.

                - Outer layer is the lay person
                - Next layer is your average clueless and likeable tree hugger ( they are benign and clueless to the actual aims of their hard core ‘controllers’ ).
                - Next layer is the organizers – people who have a strong political connection, but not part of the inner sanctum.
                - Next layer is the outer sanctum – usually hard core eco-nazis/communists who are the controllers who have helped hijack the green movement.
                - Next layer ( inner sanctum ) is the ultra hard core political operatives and descision makers. These guys are the sort of people that others whisper about and are deeply connected to the Establishment and often to some pretty iffy stuff. My experince has been that often the worst rumours are often true. These are the guys who are into the occult/gaia worship and are not to be messed with.

                People often think govt controls things – they dont. The real power is in the establishment families and power brokers. The govt of the day just dances to their tune.

                These are the same people who mastermind the eco agenda of the day because it suits some aim they have of pursuit of money or power or both. The little people who are messed about/damaged are just collateral damage / cannon fodder for what they are doing at a high level. If they decide they need to jail every skeptic, it will happen. They will instruct govt to redefine “terrorism” to mean anything that goes against their agenda and then guess what? The current covert war against Christianity is also part of the same occult-based agenda. The occult agenda is basiclaly imposing world wide slavery delivered by the UN using an eco agenda. Deep down, I reckon most people know inherently something doesnt quite feel right and doesnt fit – you need to look at things with teh right filter. I find it intersting all schools now have 6′ high fences which are the FEMA camp equivelent built right under our noses…..

                We havent seen anything, yet.

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                Rereke Whakaaro

                Nicely put Steve.

                I have had the occasional brush with the establishment families, and came away with a recurring desire to count my fingers, just to make sure they were all still there.

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              That’s about what it will take. But what I don’t understand is why the unions aren’t taking a hard stance against all this renewable energy. I know unions aren’t that much for workers and jobs overall; however, if there are no jobs, there is no need for unions, ergo, no union power.

              The cities will collapse long before the rural areas.

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              • #
                PeterS

                Most union members have no idea that are being conned. The union leaders however don’t care. They think they can create some sort of communist state so they can be our new masters. What fools they are. Socialism and communism per se are dead. Any country like Australia that tries to resurrect such corrupt ideologies are doomed from the start. Australians, including those who habitually vote for Labor would turn on them so fast they won’t know what hit them. I’m assuming most Australians will wake up and are at least half intelligent. I could be wrong though in which case I will have to move to another country.

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              • #
                Rereke Whakaaro

                I am on record as saying that, one of the worst thing to have happened in recent times, was when the Berlin wall came down, and all of the Communists escaped.

                Give it another ten years or so, and the stark differences between East and West will have merged into a police-state existance that nobody will like – except for those few people who think that they run the show.

                Remember. All order is subject to entropy, and entropy is the advanced guard of chaos.

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              • #
                Rod Stuart

                when the Berlin wall came down, and all of the Communists escaped

                Somewhere I saw it written, in connection with Frau Merkel, that you can take the girl out of East Germany, but you will never get East Germany out of the girl.
                I think it was Mark Steyn.

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      • #
        Brad

        Tom, I love the smell of a wood fire on the beach, or any place else for that matter. Had a nice one going last Wednesday evening in the backyard. Love contributing to the “GLOBAL GREENING” movement.

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    • #
      el gordo

      Before white man turned up the locals would collect this renewable resource along the same track and they were abundantly aware that less dead wood reduced the danger of bush fires.

      The green blog is the cafe latte set and completely out of touch with rural customs.

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      Dennis

      Not many years ago the extremist Greens were recommending burning timber as a renewable resource.

      Beware, the Greens’ agenda is manipulative and something like rounding up a mob of Sheep.

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      You can see how people are being forced “onto the grid” – being able to have a wood fire means you can do what you want. If people are forced to buy electricity or gas, you can be controlled. The greenie stuf is nonsense – its all about control control control….

      You need to understand the descision makers – they want everyone tagged, bagged and thrown in the corner.

      I also notice that Victoria is the state where all the bad stuff is tried, then rolled out to the rest of Australia, kind of like a NWO crash test dummy to see if the sheep scream loudly or not while being squeezed….

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Apparently ( just looking at it myself – already sold in the USA ) you can compress coffee grounds, mixed with a bit of liquid candle wax, and make burnable logs for open fires.

      And you can extract using soxhelt process the oil from coffee grounds to make biodiesel.

      It would be a kind of inner city chutzpah – the same clueless inner city eco-nazi latte sippers are paying for heating ourhomes for free…oh the wonderful irony…. :-)

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  • #
    pat

    15 Apr: Reuters: Jessica DiNapoli: SunEdison to file for bankruptcy as early as Sunday night -source
    Solar energy company SunEdison Inc is preparing to file for bankruptcy as early as the evening of April 17, a person familiar with the matter said on Friday, nine months after its market value had reached $10 billion.
    A SunEdison spokesman declined to comment…
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sunedison-file-bankruptcy-early-sunday-223648079.html

    3 pages: 16 Apr: Forbes: William Pentland: Burned By The Sun: SunEdison Braces For Bankruptcy, But Why?
    (William Pentland is a Partner at Brookside Strategies, LLC, a consulting firm in Kennebunk, ME that focuses on issues in utility regulation, market strategy and energy policy)
    There are several theories about the causes of SunEdison’s spectacular decline. Most of the theories are at least partially true, but none of them seem sufficiently compelling to explain the scope and scale of SunEdison’s implosion…READ ON
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2016/04/16/burned-by-the-sun-sunedison-braces-for-bankruptcy-but-why/#191c08e74cb9

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    • #
      Dariusz

      Why these “enterprises” are going bankrupt?
      The answer is obvious. Take away subsidies or stolen money from the tax payers and all the facade falls down. The other reason is the unprecedented low energy price. Oil and coal industries are on their knees now, what else would you expect from the artificial monster that only survives though intravenous money injections?
      This downfall is not through the power of sceptical thinking, but because of new technologies like fracking that undermined the concept of peak oil. Now the peak oil appears to be extended possibly as much as 300 years into the future. All this GW crap and renewables will be naturally killed by cheap energy.
      Not even 3 years ago anyone thought that was possible. I thought my livelihood in the petroleum industry was a given for the rest of my life. Now I am looking at uber job opportunities. Perhaps I will have sparring matches in the unemployment lines with the renewable,s ex-personnel complaining about their bankrupt businesses that would never develop in a free market environment.

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  • #
    pat

    14 Apr: SolarPortal: Liam Stoker: DECC insists solar must ‘stand on its own two feet’ over job losses
    The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has responded to the recent spate of job losses in the solar industry by insisting the sector must “stand on its own two feet”.
    Earlier this week Lightsource, the UK’s largest solar developer, announced that as many as 80 jobs – a quarter of its full-time workforce – were to be “reconsidered” following a strategic review of the business launched after a string of subsidy cuts.
    The announcement followed a raft of small-sized installation businesses becoming insolvent, such as Freewatt, Eco Juice and Absolute Renewable Energy, with several others also understood to have filed for insolvency in the past fortnight.
    While it is not clear precisely how many jobs have been lost from the solar industry to date, it is now certainly above 2,000 after more than 1,800 positions were lost in the immediate aftermath of the cuts last year…
    Meanwhile DECC remained silent on the controversy surrounding comments energy minister Andrea Leadsom made during the delegated legislation committee session on the draft RO closure last month.
    During the heated debated, Leadsom claimed that it would be inaccurate to claim thousands of jobs stood to be lost from the solar industry following cuts to subsidies…
    The comments were made in spite of DECC’s own feed-in tariff consultation impact assessment warning that up to 18,700 jobs could be lost as a result of the cuts, and the fact that many installers had already gone out of business – most notably Mark Group…ETC
    http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/decc_insists_solar_must_stand_on_its_own_two_feet_over_job_losses_5879

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  • #

    I did an interesting exercise this week. I was working on one thing, which led to another, and ended up doing this.

    I want to show you how South Australia might just get away with being lauded as the poster child for Wind Power,

    When you think of a whole State, you think it’s pretty big eh! So, it gives the false impression that if a lot of power is consumed, and a lot of it comes from wind, then it sort of stands to reason that wind can cover all the bases so to speak.

    Now, while Australia consumes 200TWH of power each year, they have to actually generate 248TWH of power each year just to be able to supply that 200TWH.

    Using the industry standard for power calculations, and from that total generation figure of 248TWH, then that means there must be a total of 28,300MW of Nameplate, so that’s the average because the actual power consumption varies around 18,000 (absolute minimum requirement) up to a Peak of around 28,000 to 32,000MW, depending on the season. (again, note I mention consumption totals here, different from actual generation)

    So, using the AEMO data, I worked out the totals for each of the States, and from that, the percentages for each State when compared to the overall total power consumed, then worked out the total for Wind Power for each of the States, and from that, the percentage (by State) for wind power with Wind calculated at the Average Capacity Factor of 30%., so 30% of 3669MW is 1100MW. That breakdown is as follows.

    State – Total –State Percentage of Australian Total – Wind Total – Wind percentage of State Total.
    Australia – 28300MW – 100% – 1100MW – 3.88%
    NSW – 9900MW – 35.1% – 195MW – 1.97%
    Qld – 8340MW – 29.4% – 3.6MW – 0.04%
    Vic – 6950MW – 24.5% – 366MW – 5.27%
    SA – 1840MW – 6.5% – 443MW – 24.08%
    Tas – 1240MW – 4.4% – 92MW – 7.42%

    Okay then, now the one number in question to show my point is that South Australian percentage of the Australian Total power consumption,

    6.5%.

    South Australia, as a whole State consumes less than half the power of any of the three major State Capitals, Sydney, or Melbourne or Brisbane. That’s how they can claim that Wind is working in their State, because they are such a tiny consumer of power. I mean, having driven off nearly all of the major electricity consumers in their State, they are now a veritable tiny consumer of power.

    One other thing of note on how they can claim that wind does well in their State is (the relief of) having that recently upgraded Heywood Interconnector. That can supply 650MW at any one time, and if that is online delivering its maximum, then that of itself supplies 35.4% of the State’s power consumption.

    That Interconnector can be used to dump into Victoria some of its excess wind power during the times when the State is not using it, mainly those hours from Midnight to 6AM, when wind generates most of its power, but not needed by the State, so sent back via (both) Interconnectors into Victoria, but more often than not, that Interconnector will be supplying INTO the State during the day and when the wind is performing poorly. So, in effect, South Australia is keeping itself open for business thanks only to the Brown Coal Fired Plants in Victoria, giving the impression that wind is supplying power to keep the State going

    The fact that the whole State consumes only 6.5^ of Australia’s power is how they can seem to claim that wind is what is powering their State.

    Some of you may think that Victoria, being more populous than Queensland, 6 million people versus 4.8 million people, then Victoria might consume more power, but keep in mind here that Queensland has its cities more spread out than in the more densely populated Victoria., with a land area of 1,850,000SqKm to only 240,000SqKm, hence the need for power to be available across that greater area of Queensland.

    Also, keep in mind here that this is only for the area East of the WA Border. Western Australia consumes around 4,500MW in total averaged, hence around 5,600MW needing to be generated. so if those figures were part of the major Eatsern AEMO Grid area, then SA’s percentage would fall to only 5.4% of Australia’s total power consumption.

    They can claim to be the poster child, but when you look at it in all its context, it’s all basically just Spin.

    Tony.

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    • #
      Robk

      I take your point Tony.
      (Here in the west we also use electricity. :-) )

      The SA situation is almost self perpetuating. How do you attract business with dodgy infrastructure.

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    • #

      For the past few weeks the capacity factor of the wind turbines was much closer to 20% than 30%. Then if one looks at the period 13th. to 15th. April one finds it hovered between 10 and 20%; there was on point when total production was only 100 MW.

      The conclusion is the same without dependable Yallourn coal fired electricity, it’s brown-outs. Then one reads in Friday’s Aust. about the subsidy for renewable energy dropping from 50% to 4% with 50% renewable energy by 2030! According to my arithematic this equates to about 8,000 sq. km of windfarm, that is 12,500 4 MW turbines to supply half of 25,000 GW with a 25% capacity factor.
      I wonder if the politicians really believe this, or are they just spruiking for the greens.

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    • #
      TdeF

      Windmills are all spin.

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      • #

        Well, in truth, I suppose it’s only 30% spin really.

        Cue Curly!

        Tony.

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        • #
          Robk

          Wait to see how it goes when they all want to plug in electric vehicles.
          If they ever made a micro nuclear plant to fit in a car, some kind of disseminated grid might work.
          I can envisage agricultural and industrial gear becoming diesel(or what ever) over electric with an option to feed the grid. I can’t quite see batteries doing anything more than relatively short smoothing at a high price.

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          ScotsmaninUtah

          I agree, until they wear out …. which it is not very long
          Russian cars last longer :o

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      Raven

      . . it’s all basically just Spin.

      Haha . . it’s late here and I read that as “Spain”.

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  • #

    The Tasmanian electricity reserves have finally stabilised at 13.6%, or 1965 GWh after falling from 22.5% in mid December, helped by a little rain and, perhaps some wind and the installation of diesel generators at various sites, as well as re-commissioning the Tamar valley power gas turbines.

    The Hydro website mentions this saying their problems were due to failure of the Bass Link cable, and unprecedented low rainfall: no mention of selling too much electricity over the cable and running the lakes down to 22% just before their Summer.

    Looking at the rainfall data for the west coast catchment areas, it appears that there was normal Summer rainfall so this seems to be more of an excuse rather than fact. Still no date for the repair of the undersea cable,perhaps by July.

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  • #
    pat

    Must-Read Special for the Sun, by Jim McPherson, a retired professional engineer, living in Tweed.

    16 Apr: Toronto Sun: Jim McPherson: Ontario’s ill wind
    Throwing billions of dollars at wind and solar factories isn’t going to lower greenhouse emissions effectively or efficiently
    On March 23, Lorrie Goldstein’s “Burn our money” column in the Toronto Sun criticized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for budgeting about $10 billion (including overseas spending) by 2020 on what Trudeau claims are climate change initiatives.
    Last month, despite continuing objections from hosting municipalities and numerous concerns expressed by the office of the Auditor General of Ontario, Premier Kathleen Wynne’s provincial government approved more renewable energy projects.
    Last week, a wind power developer began legally clearing vegetation from a vast area of pristine wildlife in Prince Edward County, even though the Enviromental Review Tribunal (ERT) had ruled the project would cause serious and irreversible harm to endangered Blandings Turtles and Little Brown Bats.
    On April 8, photographs of habitat destruction apparently prompted the ERT to order an “interim stay” on construction and a “remedial measures” hearing will now be scheduled…READ ALL
    http://www.torontosun.com/2016/04/16/ontarios-ill-wind

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  • #
    Mikky

    South Australia has a bit of a looming problem with its electricity supply, especially from 2018:

    * Maximum recent actual demand: 3400 MW
    * Maximum dispactable supply: 2000 MW, following closure of Northern Power Station (coal) and Torrens A (gas)
    * Maximum interconnector supply: 670 MW (assuming upgrade works)

    Deficit is 630 MW, but wind/solar can be ZERO. Note that rooftop solar and “demand participation” are already partly accounted for in the actual demand data.

    See here for data sources and discussion: https://climanrecon.wordpress.com/2016/02/20/south_australia/

    Does Victoria know that it may have to supply 870 MW during summer heatwaves? It too has a problem, max recent demand 10,490 MW, max dispactable supply 10,400 MW.

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      Mikky

      Oops, interconnector max design capacity will be 870 MW, deficit still 630 MW.

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      Graeme No.3

      Mikky:

      What problem? All that has to happen on one of those hot days, or hot, humid still nights is for
      ALL dispatchable power to be operating = 1013 MW
      ALL OCGT to be running full time ?????? = 915 MW
      Full supply from the interconnectors ??? = 872 MW

      AND the wind turbines supply 24 hours ? = 600 MW (i.e. 40.7% of capacity) and SA will be saved from blackouts.

      Of course in the rare and “unforeseeable” chance that one of these factors fails then there might be “some disruption to supply”.
      Personally, I am pricing generators.

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        Analitik

        I think SA will be in trouble this coming summer – I posted the following a couple of times this week but no one seemed to care

        Northern: 544 MW, Playford: 240 MW – both scheduled to close in May (extended from end of March)

        Once these close, South Australia will be left with

        1477 MW: wind turbines
        838 MW: CCGT gas generators
        2101 MW: peaking gas and diesel generators
        680 MW: interconnectors to Vic (being upgraded soon to 870 MW)

        Mean demand ~1700 MW, peak demand ~3300 MW
        Looks like there will be extended periods where the peaking plants will need to be fully operational.

        The generator breakup figures I found on the Euan Mearns site but they seem consistent with the totals on the Aneroid site for SA fossil and wind generators

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          AndyG55

          ” I posted the following a couple of times this week but no one seemed to care “

          Quite frankly, no. They get what they get.

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      James Murphy

      I thought they were turning out the lights in South Australia by April 2017 “at the latest” for coal (Pt Augusta), and just “2017″ for Torrens Island (gas). Pelican Point is running at 1/2 capacity, but only with a 48 hour recall.

      I see you’ve said 2018 – have things changed?

      I probably have old figures – mine were from the AEMO South Australian Electricity Report (August 2015), but I can’t imagine Jay Weatherill delaying this crippling blow to SA by another 12 months – I believe he is genuinely looking forward to being the premier of a 3rd world state.

      2018 is an SA state election year? – I have lost track…

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        Mikky

        The Torrens A closure date is 2017, the AEMO are assuming that it will cover summer 2017, then close, but as it was completed in 1967 there has to be some doubt about it being fully available for summer 2017.

        The highly peaky nature of max demand is part of the problem, would you spend lots on maintaining something that may only give a return for a few days per year?

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          Graeme No.3

          As distinct from putting in numbers of OCGT which run, if you are very lucky, 15% of the time; generate as much emissions as a modern coal fired station and charge around 9 times as much? I say lucky because OCGT have this tendency of cracking and falling to bits if used more than 20% (I some would have that) of the time.

          The alternative is to not provide for peak demand and blame Qld. for not putting in an interconnector to SA or the wind not blowing Oops! Can’t use that. Just leave the public in the dark.

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    RB

    Science Daily reports on an article by “a major energy think tank in the UK”, the Sussex Energy Group at the University of Sussex, titled Fossil fuels could be phased out worldwide in a decade, says new study.

    …the next great energy revolution could take place in a fraction of the time of major changes in the past.

    But it would take a collaborative, interdisciplinary, multi-scalar effort to get there, he warns. And that effort must learn from the trials and tribulations from previous energy systems and technology transitions.

    according to Professor Benjamin Sovacool.

    Multi-scalar (measured in both joules/ and calories/fortnight, maybe)?

    He warns? Typical of someone who would tell you that you’re imagining things if you refer to him as an alarmist.

    And that effort must learn…

    It isn’t even a concrete noun!

    …from the trials and tribulations from previous energy systems and technology transitions

    I’ll put serious money on me suffering more at the moment than any previous energy system ever did.

    …and argues that only looking towards the past can often paint an overly bleak and unnecessary picture.

    I’m suspecting that Elizabeth Farelly has a second job as a ghost writer.

    Moving from wood to coal in Europe, for example, took between 96 and 160 years, whereas electricity took 47 to 69 years to enter into mainstream use.

    The details are not in the paper but in another that I can’t access, but its obvious that the switch from wood to coal is a poor metric for the uptake of new technology. Coal was used for industrial purposes eg smelting, production of lime and drying, for 2000 years. Seacoal lane and Newcastle lane in London are named after two 13thC wharves for importing coal some 400 years before the paper claims England began switching from wood to coal. This was supposedly complete by the early 18thC but the reality is that urbanisation eventually made it impractical for the majority to use wood for domestic use and they didn’t use coal for centuries before, even though readily available, because its not nice to burn in a home.

    As for electricity, within 10 years of Faraday’s work on electromagnetism, generators and the telegraph were operational. Commercial power stations were built within 10 years of the first generator capable of producing electricity on a commercial scale and within 47 years of the first commercial steam-turbine generators , England had finished its National Grid! One has to wonder what sort of methodology they used.

    The study highlights numerous examples of speedier transitions that are often overlooked by analysts. For example, Ontario completed a shift away from coal between 2003 and 2014

    It already had a nuclear facility that produced more than twice the electricity that a country of ten times the population like Nigeria gets by on, plus hydro that provides almost as much as all of Nigeria’s sources. Meanwhile, it took less time from a technician accidentally discovering a misconnected dynamo worked well as a motor to development of electric tools and then a few more years before electric sewing machines were sold to the public, replacing foot and steam power for those who could afford it. Its clear that if the benefits are obvious then the uptake follows quickly.

    There are also plenty of false starts like the first commercial power plant providing the electricity for a town’s street lighting when the technology wasn’t up to it. They went back to gas very quickly.

    In sum, although the study suggests that the historical record can be instructive in shaping our understanding of macro and micro energy transitions, it need not be predictive

    Considering that this group is the only one that had the brain fart that you could extrapolate these idiotic metrics in the first place, discussing coming to that conclusion should have been kept in house.

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    Mal

    I have discovered an old book entitled “cycles the mysterious forces that trigger events”

    http://astrocycle.net/PDF/BEST_CYCLES.pdf
    See page 136 that refers to 4 climatic cycles of about 25 (upto 30 yrs in a a 100 -120 yr period. These are cold wet, cold dry, warm wet, warm dry.
    If you look at these cycles and superimpose them on the underlying warming trend from the little ice age you get a very good correlation to what has occurred over the last 116 years.
    It always amazes me that the proponents of man made global warming assume that the climate has been uniform before “man intervened” when it obviously has not.

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    handjive

    “The money paid to households for power generated back into the grid from rooftop solar panels is recouped through higher electricity charges for all consumers, adding $89 to the average annual bill last year.

    A VOLUNTARY “battery buyout” deal for solar-equipped households on the most generous feed-in tariff is being considered by the Palaszczuk Government.”

    State’s solar households in line for power storage rebate
    . . .
    And it won’t stop one cyclone, flood, drought, or save the GBR.

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    I’m extremely surprised that no one has yet blamed the Zika virus on climate change (mosquitos afterall). Someone is missing a massive opportunity.

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    Carbon500

    Whenever I offer my views on the alleged dangerous man-made global warming, I never refer to it as ‘climate change’, and I always use actual meteorological data. I’m not interested in computer model based speculation.
    It’s taken me literally years to read enough and see enough to form my views.
    Might it be a good idea to have a section on this already excellent website with direct links to official data, for example the Central England Temperature record and other useful Met Office information such as rainfall? – ditto other countries and their records.
    It’s surprising how people are taken in by the doom-mongers in the press and other media outlets – for example. a lot of people here in England are led to believe that our winter storms are ‘extreme weather’, and think that we’ve never had weather like this before. Only the other day I showed a friend pictures of storm damage in years past (1960s going back to the 1930s), and she seemed surprised.
    The only way to counter the nonsense and dare I say it, lies, we’re fed is to give people quick access to facts. But they’re not easy to dig out. Could this website help?

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    pat

    16 Apr: TheCollegeFix: Dave Huber: The push-back against attempts to punish ‘heretical’ views on climate change begins in earnest
    Indeed, if there’s any sort of conspiracy, maybe climate activists should look at themselves. For, according to the Wall Street Journal (LINK), many of them had gotten together “to establish in public’s mind that Exxon is a corrupt institution that has pushed humanity (and all creation) toward climate chaos and grave harm.”
    A memo obtained from a January “closed-door” meeting of the Rockefeller Family Fund shows (LINK) that the activists’ goals are to “delegitimize [ExxonMobil] as a political actor,” “force officials to disassociate themselves from Exxon,” and “drive divestment from Exxon.”…
    “The memo also proposed ‘creating scandal’ by using lawsuits and state prosecutors to obtain internal documents from ExxonMobil through judicial discovery.”…
    Quite recently, big-time climate activist Bill Nye “The Science Guy” alluded to the possible criminality of those who question climate science…READ ALL, LOTS OF NYE/NASA ETC
    http://www.thecollegefix.com/post/27069/

    LINKS TO FULL AGENDA:

    14 Apr: WashingtonFreeBeacon: Anna Goodman: Memo Shows Secret Coordination Effort Against ExxonMobil by Climate Activists, Rockefeller Fund
    A copy of the meeting’s agenda (LINK), obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, provides a rare glimpse inside the anti-ExxonMobil crusade, which has already spurred investigations into the oil giant by Democratic attorneys general in several states…
    The secret meeting was first reported by the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday, but the group’s agenda was not posted in full until now.
    The agenda was drafted by Kenny Bruno, an activist with the New Venture Fund. Bruno emailed the memo to a small group of around a dozen attendees, including Naomi Ages at GreenPeace; Dan Cantor, executive director of the New York Working Families Party; Jamie Henn, co-founder at 350.org; and Rob Weissman, president at Public Citizen.
    According to the agenda, the meeting would be opened by Lee Wasserman, director of the Rockefeller Family Fund. The organization funds many environmental groups and hosted the meeting at its Manhattan office.
    “If you are receiving this message then we believe you are attending the meeting this coming Friday Jan 8 regarding Exxon,” wrote Bruno. “The meeting will take place at: Rockefeller Family Fund.”
    The email included a “DRAFT Agenda” for “Exxon: Revelations & Opportunities.”
    Under a section headlined “goals,” the agenda listed: “To establish in the public’s mind that Exxon is a corrupt institution”; “To delegitimize them as a political actor; and “To drive Exxon & climate into center of 2016 election.”…
    http://freebeacon.com/issues/memo-shows-secret-coordination-effort-exxonmobil-climate-activists-rockefeller-fund/

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    el gordo

    The Turnbull government’s strong lead over the opposition has evaporated just as it enters a risky three-week special sitting of Parliament, attempts to secure an unlikely political bounce from a tight budget, and justify an early election on July 2.

    The latest Fairfax-Ipsos poll conducted over the weekend put support for the Coalition and Labor across the country on a knife-edge at 50-50, assuming an allocation of preferences similar to those at the last election.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voters-expected-more-poll-20160417-go8b73.html#ixzz464ePsCyy
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

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      James Murphy

      My parents live in Chris Pyne’s electorate, and they were recently telling me that there were people in their local shopping centre handing out shopping bags with ‘chris pyne delivers’, or some such, written on them. (one of) my parents took the opportunity to complain about Pyne supporting the Turnbull coup, and they they did not see how they could justify voting for Pyne, given this treachery, and given that Turnbull is just in the job for his own benefit.

      The answer they received was “would you rather have Bill Shorten as PM?” That’s the defining argument…??

      Given that Chris Pyne has never been active (in this way) in that area of his electorate, It looks like he may indeed be running scared of the Xenophon camp, which, if the candidates are as (generally, on balance) sensible/credible as Xenophon, will pose a serious threat to turncoats such as Pyne, who, until now, have taken a large percentage of their ‘safe seat’ electorate for granted.

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      Another Ian

      Imagine the blue funk around Liberal headquarters about now?

      Recently there was mention of Malcolm and “pulling a rabbit out of a hat”

      What’s the betting the spoonerism is more likely?

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    el gordo

    Infrastructure Infrastructure Infrastructure Bullet Train

    ‘The newly created Consolidated Land and Rail Australia scored a meeting with Malcolm Turnbull last month, accompanied by a bipartisan delegation including former premiers Steve Bracks and Barry O’Farrell — this despite its website being nonexistent bar an “under construction” sign and its Melbourne office on answering machine when The Australian made contact.’

    Oz

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    AndyG55

    Hey, you know all those lithium batteries that are going to save the world..

    Seems they also need cobalt…

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/04/17/lithium-batteries-the-cobalt-cliff-is-upon-us/

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      Analitik

      Bummer. Well Elron Musk had better hit the US government for some more subsidies in order to get that extra nickel or copper mined so the cobalt byproduct can feed the demand from his Gigafactory.

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      toorightmate

      An increased demand for Cobalt will make Honest Clive smile.

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      James Murphy

      related to cobalt, but not batteries – Polycrystalline diamond compact (PDC) cutters are a relatively complex bit of engineering (somewhat more complex than artificial diamonds by themselves), and are used extensively in the oil/gas drilling business. Part of the PDC cutter manufacturing process relies on trace amounts of cobalt being present. (From memory, it’s essentially a catalyst, but don’t quote me on it)

      However, when put into use in particularly harsh drilling conditions, higher than desired temperatures can be attained, leading to differential expansion of Cobalt compared to the surrounding Carbon, which can contribute to premature cutter failure. Thus, if the customer is willing to pay extra, the cobalt can be leached from the PDC cutters, leading to a stronger, more durable product.

      These PDC cutters are brazed onto a tungsten carbide (or steel, depending on the final application) body. This video shows the overall process. Smith bits have a similar, but much shorter video here.

      isn’t it terrible to think that ‘big oil’ relies on cobalt in some way, just as the ‘green battery’ industry does… Ban Cobalt now???

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    Andrew McRae

    Sooooo only one week to go before the Paris climate treaty is open for ratification.
    All signs to date have been less than encouraging.

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      James Murphy

      Not if you’re a politician or associated flunky, or no doubt, a member of a Green group – they all stand to gain from duty free shopping, and frequent flyer points.

      Think of the children!

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    toorightmate

    ABC News currently has the notorious Bill McKibben visiting Tasmania and stating that the current power crisis is due to the drought.
    The drought is due to climate change.
    Climate change will produce more droughts.

    NOW WE KNOW!!!

    Nothing to do with gross mismanagement of water resources.

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    Analitik

    Even the BBC now admits wind turbines are a danger to avian wildlife! This study showed the effects of a windfarm in Sutherland on the local golden plover population.

    Wind farm construction ‘cuts golden plover numbers by 80%’

    Of course, SSE, the windfarm’s owner, are having none of it

    Long-term studies at other Scottish wind farms have generally shown that golden plover numbers are not adversely affected by wind turbines, and we have a long-term habitat management plan in place at Gordonbush

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      AndyG55

      “and we have a long-term habitat management plan in place at Gordonbush”

      Yep.. eventually the golden plovers will stop damaging their wind turbines.

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    ScotsmaninUtah

    No jokes in the future

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KoiT6ShRl4Y

    at some point , one needs to arm oneself and start killing politicians on mass
    It is the American way of revolution..

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    Annie

    Greetings to all JoNovians from the beautiful island of Cyprus. We are having a long looked forward to holiday here. I’ll maybe post more on how the Cypriots are faring later. Suffice to say a few more tourists, but not the lager-lout variety, would be very welcome.

    It is easy to get here via Emirates if you live near Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane, Adelaide or Sydney or from Auckland for our Kiwi friends. Cyprus is a beautiful and fascinating place with an amazing history.

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    AndyG55

    I know its just models, but this could be what is needed to kill the AGW zombie and get the world back on the path of common sense.

    http://notrickszone.com/2016/04/17/powerfully-cold-la-nina-coming-at-us-like-an-express-train-could-set-a-new-record/#sthash.pLN7c1gZ.dpbs

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    Eddie

    Engaging social media with the big questions.
    Poll to name NERC’s £200 million next Polar Research vessel opts overwhelmingly for ‘Boaty McBoatFace’

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    el gordo

    Cruz doggedly carries onto victory.

    ‘In averaging the myriad opinion polls on a presidential face off between various of the candidates, Real Clear Politics finds that the presumptive Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump; but in a Clinton-Cruz match-up, Clinton wins by just 3.4 points – arguably not far outside the polls’ margin of error.’

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/republican-fear-of-donald-trump-fuels-rise-of-senator-ick-from-texas-20160417-go86xq.html#ixzz467blyx6Y
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

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    Dr. Toboggan

    Dunno if this is news or not, but I figured this was the place to report it: the return of the dread 97%!

    Within, I found this exchange a little amusing. The short version:

    1. Redditor claims skeptics are marginalised
    2. Scientist doesn’t believe it
    3. Redditor replies
    4. Reply gets scrubbed for its “tone”

    I also found, in that same exchange, something illuminating was said by one of the study’s authors, one Peter Jacobs:

    “There is a growing number of [social science] studies that show perceived consensus is a gateway belief that has a large impact on public perception of environmental issues like climate change.”

    Which explains why they’re going to all this effort.

    I wonder why they keep landing on that same number, though. Is 97% more memorable or believable than 96, or 94, or 99? Did somebody take it to a focus group?

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      Rereke Whakaaro

      Three percent is reckoned to be the lowest margin of error attainable in a binary, yes/no, type of survey.

      Thus, by claiming 97%, they are really trying to imply 100%, “give or take”.

      Of course, no other survey, that requires people to think, can come anywhere near as close as that, so I looked at the website (probably doubling the number of hits) and found that:

      1. The Survey was not a survey in its own right, but rather a meta-analysis of other surveys, and “expert agreement” (with the selection of “experts” undedefined); and

      2. The lead author was John Cook, who is generally acknowledged, by the wider scientific community, as being somewhat statistically challenged.

      3. The paper was published in “The Conversation and Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists”, which is presumably widely read by those people who are interested in climate and its potential impacts on civilisation (cut them some slack – carbon is an atom).

      4. Coauthor was Dana Nuccetelli who wrote an opinion piece in the Guardian. (How this counts as “research”, is beyond me – it must be something arcane).

      5. From their judicial selection of material for their meta-analysis, they managed to find sufficient “expert agreement”, to qualify for the 97% threshold.

      6. They then go on to use this “proof” that the 97% level among friends is robust, to prove that the figure of 97% is, in fact, robust.

      There you have it folks. Climate Seance at is finest, from an exemplar in the field. Where would sceptism be, without people like John Cook?

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    Mari

    Some time back I’d made a comment about the housing market crash wherein I’d accused certain groups of criminality. Part of that was snipped, as I had not posted any link or corroborative evidence. I found a nice write-up (two, actually) of part of the bubble-crash issue and the hind-sight that maybe should have been then-sight, and thought I’d share as it also sheds light – and corroboration of my opinion – on the issue.

    http://www.newyorker.com/business/currency/why-the-s-e-c-didnt-hit-goldman-sachs-harder?intcid=mod-yml

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/didnt-eric-holder-go-bankers

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