Reader William York points out that Dr Xargle’s Book of Earth Weather (published 1992) is a similar vintage to the IPCC FAR report. Xargle’s job was to explain Earth’s climate to the Planet of Queeqians. Like the FAR report, Dr Xargle was turned into a fictional TV series.
Perfect fodder really for a Holiday Unthreaded. – Jo
——————————————————————————————–
From William York,
The following work, first published in 1992 is arguably one of the best interpretations of the 1990 IPCC First Assessment Report.
The book appears to be based on the earlier work of Mark Twain who wisely said “climate is what you want and weather is what you get”.
Dr Xargle from another planet should be well aligned with our climate modelers.
The detailed climate and weather analysis follows.
Unlike Al Gore’s later film “An Inconvenient Truth”, the book does not seem to have given rise to any legal actions from perturbed parents.
A Happy New Year to everyone,
William York
——————————————————————————————
From the CriterionPic Review:
Dr Xargle’s EarthWeather
The Queegles are being taught about weather on Planet Earth. Tardy falls asleep sunbathing and Dr. Xargle startles him with his recording of “blunder and frightening”! Matron gets soaked with a burst rain cloud and a downpour of “fat tadpoles” — but the hurricane-force wind machine should dry her off! The spaceship lands at the seaside — where Cute goes looking for her lost blanket causing chaos with sunbathers on the beach. Matron steals Nigel Spume’s ice cream alien detector so the Queegles have to head for the spaceship quickly. Back on board the winkles have invaded — along with the sneezes!
I never liked Hitchikers Guide, I doubt I’d like this book.
Happy New Year everyone (gives the kazoo a blast while wearing a silly paper hat)
125
I believe this is an IPCC text. It shows a correlation between extreme weather and humans. In every picture of extreme weather there is a human. That is the common factor, ergo, humans must be the cause of the extreme weather. Get rid of humans and the problem is solved!
291
Now you’re talking quantum mechanics. The extreme weather only exists because we humans observe it. Take away the humans and there is no extreme weather.
351
Please! I am still trying to come to terms with entanglement. Existentialism is still a step too far for me, right now.
Still, I have, at least, figured out that Entanglement is not a sequel to Fifty Shades of Grey. Some days are more disappointing than others.
190
Entanglement is really easy to understand… if you’ve ever put up 200′ of field fence by yourself.
191
More disappointing than 50 Shades of Grey?
40
‘Too hot, Too cold, Too wet and Too windy’ is only 4 shades of grey I suppose, maybe a ‘4 shades of climate’ is in the pipeline?
Possible scenarios,
– The busty scientist that can’t afford to pay the Xerox man…
– A pizza delivery boy arrives at UEA to a drunken ‘Women concerned about climate’ party….
– The transsexual pool cleaner at Gore’s Montecito mansion…
– One mann one hockey stick…
130
“- The busty scientist that can’t afford to pay the Xerox man…”
Doesn’t the IPCC chief write that sort of stuff ?
101
He is a self proclaimed expert. So is beyond questioning!
90
I think they meant the Entanglement when as a young bloke you had three girl friends none of whom were supposed to know about the other two.
It makes Quantum theory look simple.
80
And a lot less dangerous ROM
60
Or at least no one to predict it and complain about it, and lack of action.
If nobody was around to see when the climate didn’t run amok would it have or not done so??
30
or you can say that there will always be extreme weather…they mean “more”extreme” than before… Sooooo can we see record proving that the weather pattern have changed at least?
10
The policy says that weather is more extreme. In post-modern Climate Science, if policy and data disagree, then the policy will prevail. We don’t need no stinking data.
20
Or more likely — doesn’t it show the normal human habit of being unhappy with whatever the weather is?
But maybe the solution is as you say. Get rid of humans and no one would be unhappy with the weather. 😉
150
Animal lovers would argue that a cow or dog or sheep in the middle of a tornado are unhappy. So getting rid of humans will only help if one does not ascribe human characteristics to animals. At that point, one probably has to get rid of any animal that might in anyway be capable of “emotion”. So that puts us back to somewhere around the beginning of evolution of higher species and a chance to start all over and see if nature is smarter this time and skips human beings in evolution. Wouldn’t that be the ultimate nirvana for environmentalists? How we get rid of the people and higher level animals I leave to others to figure out. (/sarc)
120
Sheri,
I read your comment as, “… a cow or a dog or sheep in the middle of a tomato are unhappy”, and had a vision of animal crackers … I think a little lie down might be beneficial …
140
“a cow or a dog or sheep in the middle of a tomato” Ban all GM food experimentation immediately.
90
Kevin, that’s quite close to Australian Greens policy:
They make out to be cautiously supportive, but then slip the knife in at the last bullet point. This is as ridiculous as making drivers responsible for a systemic design defect in their particular model of car, when the car manufacturer is responsible. Making growers responsible for genetic modifications beyond their understanding and control is a sure way to stop GMO deployment.
And how safe does it have to be before the Greens will call a GMO safe? Rather, how slight or completely intentional does an effect have to be for Greens to label it adverse. Nearly every modification is intended to make the organism grow bigger and faster, so it will out-compete and displace any natural relative when released into the environment. That’s the whole point of modifying them, to make them better. But to the Greens the disruption of The Sacred Natural Balance of Gaia could be classified “adverse”. It may be that by definition no GMO can ever be classified as safe enough for the Greens.
The good news is that many GMOs are intentionally made infertile as a biosafety feature so they could never take over from natural relatives if they escape human custody. Oh wait…
There’s really no middle ground with these people. It’s either banned as irredeemably unsafe, or its a world wide frankenfood pandemic. A balanced approach for GMOs doesn’t seem to be policy.
10
I saw the tomato too Rereke 😀
A new sort of Rorschach test — what does it mean?
42
But who should lie down, Rereke? You aren’t very clear on that detail.
10
Those are domesticated animals, so they wouldn’t be around either.
10
I don’t know that all dogs in the middle of a tornado are unhappy. After all, Toto ended up in Oz along with Dorothy. And that turned out to be one of the world’s most enduring and endearing adventures of all time. They all had a grand time of it in the end.
10
Any pun is purely intentional/accidental/unintentional/whatever, as you may see it from your perspective. 😉
10
Not so sure. Our 2 dogs start wailing when it thunders and there is lightning and don’t stop until they are brought inside. They don’t like heavy rain much either.
Don’t know if wild dogs have similar problems with the weather.
70
And how is it that my offhand remarks spark so much debate all the time. I always try to be soooo uncontroversial. 🙂
10
It can’t be from the IPCC. There is a logical flow and the words are used according to their dictionary definition.
202
Twain was a very astute observer. And with his sharp wit he could bite hard when he wanted to.
Let’s hope Dr. Xargle can bite equally hard.
120
There seems to be one type of weather missing from that chart.
Too right.
When too right weather occurs the religious zealots that hate it and like to pretend it does not exist can be seen with their heads in the sand.
http://www.pri.org/sites/default/files/styles/story_main/public/story/images/heads-in-the-sand.jpg?
Oh and here is Dr Xargles explaining what happens next.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q44tp6wU6Kw
51
Well, I hope you guys all have a good New Year.
I’ll be down in Tassie, mostly incommunicado for the next week and a half. 🙂
72
Packing a chainsaw?
42
Nah,
I like trees…..
I’d rather take some coal down and feed them while keeping warm. 🙂
93
Now, if I had a chance to bring back a few choice large pieces of Tassie timber…
that would be a whole different story ! 🙂
82
My dad once fitted out a yacht with blackwood. Gorgeous!
42
Wow, the red thumb bandit is out in force….
00
t G
Love that comment.
I was dismayed on a visit to Tassie about 3 years ago to see the awful impact to humans e.g. jobs, due to the draconian green laws.
R-COO- K+
73
It came out of the sky
Well a crowd gathered round and a scientist said it was marsh gas
Spiro came and make a speech about raising the Mars tax
The Vatican said, “Woh, the Lord have come”
Hollywood rushed out an epic film
And Ronnie the popular said it was a communist plot
CCR
60
Another form of IPCC competition?
Link at
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/what-would-we-d-50.html#comments
21
As Manfred posted yesterday, according to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) definition of the term.
1. “Climate change” means a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
Apart from the absurdity of this self definition, what ordinary non climate scientists think as climate, the weather, is not. It is wholly and solely the amount of CO2 in the air attributable to man according to the UN, as nothing else changes proportionally very much.
Mark Twain and Dr Xargle had no idea about real climate. The UN says it is legally man made CO2. So man made climate change is a tautology.
So your Stevenson screens are useless as temperature, rainfall, wind, humidity, water, air pressure, fog, clouds, snow, rivers, lakes, vegetation are all irrelevant to climate. This shows you why a good dose of wealth distribution is needed and reeducation camps for non climate scientists.
132
Everybody seems to have missed the obvious; consider
Xargle lives on another planet
Specialises in blunders and frightening
Has a simplistic view of the Earth’s climate
And generates a lot of wind for no good purpose
Climatologists are Xargles! QED
141
Summer will be heating up in 2015 with above average temperatures says the BoM
The warmer weather will not worry Nigel Szkut, his partner Kristie Luke and their son Riley, 2, of St Clair.
“We love getting to the beaches,” Mr Szkut said.
“The warmer the better.
We hate the cold.”
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/summer-will-be-heating-up-in-2015-with-above-average-temperatures/story-fni0cx12-1227167984767
60
‘…the Weather Bureau says temperatures are set to be above average right through to March.’
I have no faith, more likely continuing low pressure troughs will moderate temperatures in the south east.
42
Yeh! the Victorian Country Fire Authority (CFA) [Authority on fires NOT weather] is claiming a long hot fire prone summer. I, too, have no faith in the BoM. I’m with you e. g.
R-COO- K+
52
It is always a long hot fire prone summer in Australia. To have the BOM announce this is absurd. The Green party resistance to clearing and backburning is the biggest threat to Australian life and property.
A few years ago a suburb of Canberra itself burned out simply because the residents would not allow council land clearance to remove the fuel load. So wishful thinking is the biggest risk. Either don’t build in the gum trees or be prepared to flee, as they do in California with the same trees. They lost as many houses five years ago, but 1/10th of the number of people. Fires, droughts and flooding rains are standard. They are the climate. Averages are just that. Some years are well above average and some well below. It is not anyone’s fault.
72
According to TdeF:
According to The Greens:
These are seemingly contradictory views of Greens policy, though there’s ambiguity about what backburning conditions qualify as “ecologically appropriate” in the Greens’ opinion.
50
What a policy! “Rigorous evidence based bushfire research”? So forget all we in bushfire prone Australia know about bushfire prevention and control and start a rigorous research project and make sure it examines all the evidence and reports back to the committee? When? This summer? This is the same as a recipe for doing nothing, which is what happens so often at so many levels with Green extremists holding the balance of power.
The same nonsense for example with their Very Fast Train. The Federal government was close to spending $400million for ecological research along the proposed route, which is $4million per km. For what? That’s one ecologist at $100K salary to examine 100 metres for a year. What does this person do for one year in 100 metres? How big are the 4000 reports? Perhaps we the public should research the climate rigorously and report back to the BOM on how to homogenize?
Practically, the Greens are the PAE, the People Against Everything and politically the ones responsible for the insane Carbon tax, the RET, the Mining tax and so much more which massively penalised Australia and Australians for nothing. Then their insane non immigration policies which cost 1200 lives, 4 jumbo loads of dead people and as Sarah Hansen Young said, “accidents happen”.
No, they pretend to have policies which belatedly accept burning. This is because ecologically fire is a critical part of the cycle for reproduction for gum and pine trees. Pine cones do not open without fire and rapid growth gum trees are filled with explosive gum. Both grow rapidly after fires. So let’s have a policy, after rigorous research and talk about what to do. Yes, Minister stuff. In the mean time, do nothing. Blame Climate Change for droughts, bushfires and flooding rains. Accidents happen.
82
Ok, perhaps $400,000 per km.
20
Hate to correct you Tdef, but pine cones don’t need fire. The pollen comes from the male flowers in spring. Can collect it to eat. When the seeds form in the female flower the cone, and its dry enough, she opens. Can also collect the nuts to eat and use the needles as a source of vitamin c. Gymnosperm, just a cool word to say.
Some of our natives like banksias benefit from fire and smoke.
10
The opening of pine cones in fire I learned in botany. Maybe in dry enough conditions for long enough they open anyway, but fire is the primary mechanism. It is all about competitive advantage, destroying your neighbours and taking their territory by outgrowing them. Plants are not nice.
20
” evidence based bushfire research… fire risk minimization in building practices”
Unsurprising arrogance and ignorance. They could start by reading AS3959:2009. Called up by the National Construction Code, so it applies everywhere.
21
(Might this just be a little too esoteric Tony?)
So, these Queegles, or Queegians, might their National Sport be ….. marbles?
Tony.
41
Tony,
O/T – check the power graph at
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/we-dont-need-no-474.html#comments
20
Christmas Day, everywhere in the Developed World, where there is a constant and regular supply of power has the total power consumption which is (hugely) lower than for ANY other day of the year, and does that indicate anything to you?
It shows conclusively that the bulk of electrical power consumption is in the Commerce and Industry sectors, all closed for Christmas Day.
Even so, that Base Load, the power needed ABSOLUTELY for 24 hours of every day, is virtually unchanged from every other day, barely lower than for those other days, and that is STILL 60% of every watt of power needed to run any of those Countries.
Here in Australia, (well, everything East of the WA border anyway) that Base Load is still around that constant requirement of 18,000MW which needs to be there, always.
And the Wind proportion for that Christmas Day requirement over that same area amounted to around 1000MW averaged across the whole day, so around 4% of that day’s average consumption.
Tony.
80
Shades of greenie Bob Brown. “the reason that Aliens have not visited us is that that they’ve killed themselves off by AGW”(paraphrased).
OMG (G = Goodness)
R-COO- K+
71
His exact words…
‘Here is one sobering possibility for our isolation: maybe life has often evolved to intelligence on other planets with biospheres and every time that intelligence, when it became able to alter its environment, did so with catastrophic consequences. Maybe we have had many predecessors in the Cosmos but all have brought about their own downfall.
‘That’s why they are not communicating with Earth. They have extincted themselves. They have come and gone. And now it’s our turn.’
He is wrong on so many different levels, but its fair to say that the galactic bruvverhood took renewed interest in these glorified apes (Earthians) when they began exploding nuclear weapons.
30
‘As we look back over the past 12 months and forward to the next, I regret that there is one story I reported two months ago to which I didn’t begin to do justice. It’s one that, when the penny finally drops, will be blazoned in shocked headlines across every newspaper in the land. How many people realise that, within a few years, our government is planning to phase out all use of gas for cooking or heating our homes?’
Booker / UK Telegraph
71
That’s ok. It’s gonna get so hot that you just need to sit your frypan out in the sun to cook your eggs (have done this at Lighning Ridge!).
61
I don’t know if you’re in the UK el gordo (or anyone else here) but the recent Xmas snowfalls have been downplayed a bit with reports of ‘snow flurries with a few delays’ instead of people skiing in the streets, here in Central Victoria we’ve had a very mild Xmas with some rain, our children will grow up never knowing what a hot Christmas is like…..
50
I’m on the central tablelands of NSW and over the last couple of days there has been a cool air outbreak (CAO).
50
The NAO drops below the line.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index.html
30
Gareth’s prose & reasoning is even worse when read in full:
28 Dec: SMH: Gareth Hutchens: Economists got it right on carbon tax, even if Greg Hunt doesn’t want to admit it
PHOTO CAPTION: Environment minister Greg Hunt will have to acknowledge that greenhouse gases have declined thanks to the carbon price.
This week the Environment Minister Greg Hunt published data on the quiet, two days before Christmas, that showed the second year of operation of Australia’s carbon price was more successful at reducing emissions than the first.
The carbon price began operation on July 1, 2012 and ended on July 1 this year after the government fulfilled an election pledge by abolishing it.
The new data from Australia’s National Greenhouse Gas Inventory, published this week, showed emissions produced during the second and final year.
And guess what? Carbon emissions declined across Australia by 1.4 per cent in the second year, compared with a decline of 0.8 per cent in the first year.
Economists had predicted that that would happen…
It is worth emphasising that a nationwide decline in emissions of 1.4 per cent is much bigger than 0.8 per cent…
Mr Hunt will have lots of time next year to challenge the cause of the bigger fall in emissions in the second year of the carbon price.
But he will have to acknowledge that the decline has occurred…
Dickens’ Mr Gradgrind character is an ugly figure because he drains the joy from the lives of children by demanding that they turn their backs on fancy and wonder and stick only to facts, facts, facts.
But facts can be a good thing when it comes to government policy. Fancy and wonder not so much.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/economists-got-it-right-on-carbon-tax-even-if-greg-hunt-doesnt-want-to-admit-it-20141227-12djun.html
28 Dec: ABC: Hayley Roman: Emissions fall not due to carbon tax, Finance Minister Mathias Cormann says
A drop in emissions during the second year of the carbon tax was due to below trend economic growth, according to Federal Finance Minister Mathias Cormann.
A report released by the Environment Department on Tuesday showed Australia’s estimated greenhouse gas emissions fell by 1.4 per cent in 2013-14, compared to the previous financial year.
The carbon tax came into effect from 1 July 2012 under the previous Labor government until 1 July 2014, when it was repealed by the current Abbott Government…
Cormann: “Over the past two years the economy has grown below trend, and below trend growth means that emissions will be lower than they otherwise would have been.” …
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-28/finance-minister-denies-drop-in-emissions-due-to-carbon-tax/5990266
31
24 Dec: ABC: Sara Phillips: Greenies not so green at Christmas
ENVIRONMENTALISTS SUSPEND their green principles for the sake of their families at Christmas, research from the University of Wollongong has shown.
Carol Farbotko (now with CSIRO) and Lesley Head asked a sample of Wollongong residents how they felt about the annual gift-giving extravaganza as part of a long-term study into sustainable living…
Lesley Head, professor in geography at the University of Wollongong, said “Even people who were quite frugal in their practices all throughout the year — for example sharing the toilet flush water — at Christmastime there was this dominance of social obligation and a celebration of abundance.”…
“There’s decades of anthropological research on the role of the gift and gifting and the basic message of that — which this paper supports — is that gifting practices are about enhancing social relationships,” she said.
“If a green giver was giving to a non-green recipient in a way that seemed to be preaching or making a political point rather than a giving point I think that’s where the resistance would come in.”…
“Bryant refers to Christmas as the world’s greatest annual environmental disaster,” the authors wrote, noting that “Christmas spending accounts for about one third of annual retail turnover in Western economies.”
“If unwanted gifts were not bought in the first place, the carbon footprint of Christmas shopping would be reduced by the equivalent of 80 kg of carbon dioxide per person,” the authors said.
However the Professor Head said that at Christmas, family comes first…
She said the finding opened up a new way to approach communication of sustainability messages. “We’ve worried so much about trying to create green citizens or green identity but we haven’t really tried to leverage the role of the family or of social relationships inside the household.”
http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2014/12/24/4154373.htm
looks like ABC/Sara Phillips just rehashed the above from Christmas 2013!
Dec 2013: Elsevier’s Science Direct: Gifts, sustainable consumption and giving up green anxieties at Christmas
Authors: Carol Farbotko & Lesley Head
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016718513001735
31
btw ABC’s Sara writes that “Bryant refers” but doesn’t bother to say who Bryant is. a sponsored Guardian article on 20 Dec helps us out:
20 Dec: Guardian: Vital Signs: Katharine Gammon: Shopping for good: nine gifts that give back
Haven’t found something for everyone on your list? Here’s our list of presents that also help build a better planet
(The Vital Signs platform is funded by Avery Dennison, Domtar and Chiquita.)
A 2007 study from York University, for example, found that the average British consumer creates about 1,433lbs (650kg) of carbon-dioxide emissions over three days of Christmas festivities. And in a 2008 report, King’s College professor Raymond Bryant called Christmas “the world’s greatest annual environmental disaster” (pdf)…
http://www.theguardian.com/vital-signs/2014/dec/20/green-gifts-guide-christmas-holiday-sustainable-charity
CAGW media reporting is so tacky.
31
Five bits of research that shaped climate science in 2014
1. Pacific winds drive surface warming slowdown
“While scientists suggest there could be an additional role for the Atlantic in driving the hiatus, evidence for the Pacific Ocean mechanism seems to be winning out at the moment.”
http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/12/five-pieces-of-research-that-shaped-climate-science-in-2014/
. . .
If you can’t explain the pause, you can’t explain the cause.
Forget the rest.
41
this AFP report, carried by SBS & Sky, among others, was wrong and, in fact, the URLs for both now carry a different story, based on what the Pope actually said in his Xmas msg:
Pope to address world’s woes in Xmas msg (AFP)
SBS – 3 days ago
The pope, who in 2015 will publish an eagerly awaited encyclical on environmental issues and the preservation of “creation”, may also touch on global warming and natural disasters.
Pope to address world’s woes in Xmas msg
Sky News – 3 days ago
The pope, who in 2015 will publish an eagerly awaited encyclical on environmental issues and the preservation of ‘creation’, may also touch on global warming and natural disasters…
NEVERMIND…MSM CONTINUES THEIR CAGW/POLITICAL CRUSADE:
28 Dec: Guardian/Observer: John Vidal: Pope Francis’s edict on climate change will anger deniers and US churches
Pontiff hopes to inspire action at next year’s UN meeting in Paris in December after visits to Philippines and New York…
In 2015, the pope will issue a lengthy message on the subject to the world’s 1.2 billion Catholics, give an address to the UN general assembly and call a summit of the world’s main religions.
The reason for such frenetic activity, says Bishop Marcelo Sorondo, chancellor of the Vatican’s Pontifical Academy of Sciences, is the pope’s wish to directly influence next year’s crucial UN climate meeting in Paris, when countries will try to conclude 20 years of fraught negotiations with a universal commitment to reduce emissions…
Following a visit in March to Tacloban, the Philippine city devastated in 2012 by typhoon Haiyan, the pope will publish a rare encyclical on climate change and human ecology. Urging all Catholics to take action on moral and scientific grounds, the document will be sent to the world’s 5,000 Catholic bishops and 400,000 priests, who will distribute it to parishioners..
However, Francis’s environmental radicalism is likely to attract resistance from Vatican conservatives and in rightwing church circles, particularly in the US – where Catholic climate sceptics also include John Boehner, Republican leader of the House of Representatives and Rick Santorum, the former Republican presidential candidate.
Cardinal George Pell, a former archbishop of Sydney who has been placed in charge of the Vatican’s budget, is a climate change sceptic who has been criticised for claiming that global warming has ceased and that if carbon dioxide in the atmosphere were doubled, then “plants would love it”…
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/27/pope-francis-edict-climate-change-us-rightwing
MESSAGE TO THE GUARDIAN’S JOHN VIDAL:
even if the Pope puts out an encyclical, how would it convince more people than the one from “Green Pope” Benedict? surely the number of CAGW sceptics is growing all the time, especially given the PAUSE!
March 2013: NRDC Blog: Pope Francis and Climate Change; Si Se Puede!
While it’s unclear exactly how the new pontiff will guide the world’s Catholics in terms of environmental policy, Pope Francis follows in the footsteps of Pope Benedict, known as the “green pope,” who warned about the risks of climate change and pushed for environmental reforms, as my NRDC colleague Adrianna Quintero blogged:
“Pope Benedict XVI, made great strides in helping bring awareness to climate change and the impacts it will have on the poor and vulnerable, linking climate change to food insecurity and water scarcity. The Vatican also released a report, “Fate of Mountain Glaciers in the Anthropocene,” showing the impact humans have had on climate change and appealing “to all nations to develop and implement” solutions.”
And as the Christian Science Monitor has reported, Pope Benedict not only supported putting solar panels on the Vatican, he understood the importance of investments in clean energy and efficiency measures that would cut energy demand and in turn reduce carbon emissions. Here’s what Pope Benedict wrote in a 2009 encyclical letter:
“The technologically advanced societies can and must lower their domestic energy consumption, either through an evolution in manufacturing methods or through greater ecological sensitivity among their citizens…It should be added that at present it is possible to achieve improved energy efficiency while at the same time encouraging research into alternative forms of energy.”…
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/rkistner/pope_francis_and_climate_chang.html
31
Seasons greetings to all and sundry (incl: The Griss).
Suggest everybody purchase the latest in scientific memorabilia. First published in the noted journal: Famous Readings from the Annual Union of Troglodytes.
02
In 2015, we need to push for recovering all the diligently kept and extensive weather data prior to 1909, especially the deadly Federation drought. This might give us a new picture of our climate history, so we can separate cyclic change from man induced change, if there is any.
Sure the screens and instruments they used were not technically as good as Stevenson Screens which replaced them. Sure, the temperature might be out by a whole degree at worst, but surely that can be corrected, certainly if modern accurate measurements can be homogenized away as if they never existed.
Our carefully kept weather records prior to 1909 should not be left to hoop pine rings in another country on the other side of the planet and surely a thermometer in a real place at the time is infintely better than a proxy tree ring and a hypothesis or two?
Apart from Antarctica, Australia dominates the land south of the Tropic of Capricorn and as only 2% of the world’s population lives in this whole area, our records are precious and they could possibly be the best set in the 19th century. Our records are the best for a third of the planet for sixty years before 1909, accurately and I have read contribute 25% to the land based assessment of temperature. Why are these records ignored, unless we already know the answer?
It is important that the BOM, the hundreds of very professional and qualified people we employ to keep and analyse records are allowed and required to extend their data back as far as possible. After all, the thermometer was a new device only in widespread use in the second half of the 19th century. We may even have the best temperature records on the planet and they are certainly more representative of this third of the planet than any other records or proxies. If Michael Mann could project his defunct hockey stick data into the future, against all the rules of science, we surely can at least report honestly and fully and exclusively on the past climate, at least for Australia and perhaps the rest of the planet.
60
One of the reasons Australia’s records are so valuable is that Australia has not experienced war on its own soil, Japanese bombing of Darwin and FNQ excepted. There was no Crimean War here (1855), no American Civil War (1865), no Franco Prussian war (1870), no Boer war, no Juntas and Civil war as in South America in our hemisphere. The penguins of Antarctica have not revolted (and only the Southern Hemisphere has penguins). We have had uninterrupted peace for the whole history. So our records are likely complete, over a huge area and extremely valuable. It is very important that if tree proxies can be held to measure world temperature, our real measurements are far better.
It is also true that like all organizations, the BOM is directed from the top and that the good professional scientists of the BOM would love nothing more than to create good and complete data sets without imported homogenization and elimination. However like so many big organizations including NASA, the American Association of Physicists, the Royal Society, the IPCC and many more have been driven for funding and by politics at the top. Science should not be political. Facts are the trade of scientists, not politics.
If the scientists of the BOM are allowed to do their jobs, we could have the best data set on the planet. Of course there are those who fear what it will show.
40
If the scientists at the BOM were allowed to do their job, they wouldn’t have a job for very long. They follow the meme or out the door.
21
You might be doing some very good honest scientists a disservice. My point was that individuals do not have the agenda we have seen. That comes from the top, as with the other organizations. If directed by our government, the BOM will do a great job. If directed by their counterparts in the UN, they will not. They have the skills, the data and the funding. We need to direct them to do the job they would really like to do and independently of the IPPC, produce our figures. It is likely the world is cooling and only the obvious fudging, deletion, omission of key Australian figures is keeping the ‘haitus’ from being a decline, with all the implications for the IPCC and the warming industry.
20
That’s OK for those spatial zones for which you have long term records. But as an AUSTRALIAN data set the errors are statistically significant, as demonstrated by Berkeley Earth reconstructions of Australian long term temperature.
02
That is because the entire graph only covers 1 degree Centrigrade. Attempts to establish any change is flawed. It is statistically possible that the entire warming proposition is close to zero within the accuracy of the measurements.
20
Hmm … Not so sure about that. There is an awful lot of Argentina, south of the Tropic. Be a close run contest, I reckon.
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Antarctica 14, Australia 7.7, Argentina 2.8, South Africa 1.2, Chile 0.76, New Zealand 0.27,Uraguay 0.18 million km2, so Australia is 50% outside Antarctica, from 22 degrees to 60 degrees. Look at a globe and you will see it is all water. Only 2% of the world’s population. 40% live in the tropics and nearly 60% above the tropic of Cancer, where it is also much warmer and the ice melts in summer. The arctic can reach 25C. Our Antarctica is lucky to reach -25C.
30
They have: we have: and it’s called ACORN! But who are those who fear what it has shown: not moi!
02
So why does it only start at 1909?
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Dites moi!
20
Back in mid-December, I posted here that I’d like to predict (as far as I can) what the Central England Temperature average reading for December 2014 will be.
To save readers looking back, here’s what I said:
“No computer models, no fancy statistics, just a plain inspection of the record’s figures and a bit of simple arithmetic.
From January to November inclusive, the monthly averages in degrees Centigrade for 2014 are 5.7, 6.2, 7.6, 10.2, 12.2, 15.1, 17.7, 14.9, 15.1, 12.5 and 8.6.
The hottest average for a year was 2006, showing 10.82⁰C.
So, assuming that we hit this figure again, let’s have a look at what December may bring.
My calculation comes to 4.04⁰C, but I’m going to round off this figure (four hundredths of a degree means nothing) – so, I suggest that December’s CET temperature will be 4⁰C at the most, but in all likelihood less than that, since I doubt we’re going to see the record average of 2006 again this year.
Four degrees Centigrade for December? Not at all an unusual figure, and that’s going right back to the 1600s.
The coldest December ever was -0.8⁰C in 1890, and the warmest was 8.1⁰C in 1934, a value also seen in 1974.”
So – how are things going for my prediction as we near the end of December?
I don’t know what the official figures are to date, but my amateur results using a greenhouse thermometer a few feet outside my back door indicate I’ll be right. The thermometer is calibrated in whole degrees, and I estimate to the nearest half degree, always at around six 0’clock in the morning. At the moment my average for the month is 4.7⁰C, and there is of course the heat island effect of our nearby central heating system gas boiler exhaust to consider, as well as the fact that we live in a town – all very rough and ready, you’ll have to agree!
What’s the point of all this? The point is that there are over 350 years of values in the CET record, with a wide spread of December figures.
But the year’s average has never ever reached 11⁰C. No matter what each month has brought, this holds true.
So where’s the dangerous warming – and how come an amateur playing with an outside crude thermometer is seeing readings which look as if they’re going to back up his prediction?
60
More evidence for the “pause”!
Who named it The Pause?
20
Regarding my prediction of the average temperature for December 2014 using Central England Temperature record data, and a bit of observation using my back yard thermometer:
It’s now the last day of the year. My thermometer readings over the last few days have been zero and slightly below, giving a final December average of 4.2C.
I’m now waiting for the official CET figure.
My calculations and thermometer readings support the view that it’ll surely be less than 4C, with of course no dangerous man-made global warming in sight – just a typical year in the UK.
00
In the last post I asked;
Where is the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere coming from?.
Here is something interesting! it is the first data released from the NASA orbiting carbon observatory satellite. NASAs idea is that a detailed map of the CO2 concentration over the surface of the Earth will reveal the sources and sinks of CO2. It is not a whole year of data, just 3 months.
Some salient points:
1. The high latitudes have low CO2,
2. The equator has low CO2
3. The highest CO2 is over the Tropic of Capricorn and the Tropic of Cancer.
4. The highest CO2 occurs over land.
5. Industrial areas of Europe and USA do not have high CO2 but China does.
10
Not 3 months. Oct1 to Nov11, 2014.
00
Climate Conundrum …. Model Failure
‘A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science.
‘This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming
points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.’
Zhengyu Liu et al 2014
20
More model failures!
Patrick Michels discussed Climate models in chapter 2 of Climate Change The Facts 2014, published by the IPA. He demonstrates that the models have failed, consistently and continuously for the past 34 years.
I did not quite follow his process of normative comparisons. Perhaps some else who has read the chapter could help to enlighten me.
10
Few historians mention climate change as a major factor in historical events, this is bound to change.
http://www.publicbooks.org/nonfiction/changing-climates-of-history
00
Joseph D’Aleo, CCM / ICECAP
‘It was a November to Remember for winter lovers. It was the 16th coldest in the record back to 1895 with 18 states in the east and south in the top ten coldest. California was the exception with continued warmth. It was more like December than November. Natural gas prices soared 50%.’
00
Cold tongue reaches the Mexican border.
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-to-make-a-comeback-across-1/39524375
00
Cold wave freezes 70 trains on tracks; 7 die in UP, Punjab
NEW DELHI: A dense blanket of fog enveloped the entire north affecting schedule of at least 70 trains and hitting road traffic. There was no let up in the cold wave on Saturday which claimed five lives in Uttar Pradesh and two in Punjab.
Delhi recorded the second lowest temperature of the season with mercury dipping to 4.8 degrees celsius, three notches below the normal level…..
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Cold-wave-freezes-70-trains-on-tracks-7-die-in-UP-Punjab/articleshow/45664245.cms
00
Joe Bastardi
‘You can see the water near Australia is beginning to warm up and the water in the eastern Pacific is starting to cool. That is the kiss of death for El Niño, so this El Niño, just like we were saying back in April: No super El Niño. It comes on for the winter, and then it goes.
‘There’s no 2 or 3-year El Niño coming up, or what these guys that want the globe to warm up so that whatever is going with the climate fight and that type of thing. It’s not happening. We took them apart with the super El Niño, and I’ll take them apart again for these guys who think this thing is going to run on for 2 years.’
– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.Cjs3UZZc.dpuf
00
China also feeling the effects of severe cooling.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/waterfall-freezes-over-on-the-yellow-river-9942588.html
10