JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Cyclone Alfred
From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
The BBC have reported on Cyclone Alfred, which has just hit Queensland:
In just about every story about hurricanes, the BBC invariably include a paragraph to the effect that global warming is making them worse.
Strangely this latest report fails to make any comment at all about long term trends. Could it be because cyclones have become a very rare occurrence for Australia?
This is what the Australian Bureau of Meteorology confirm that not only have tropical cyclones becomes less frequent, there has also been a decline in the more severe ones. http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/tropical-cyclone-knowledge-centre/history/climatology/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/03/11/cyclone-alfred/
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https://www.fresheconomicthinking.com/p/fet-51-paul-frijters-on-lessons-from
Unfortunately, here in my city of Brisbane, we are going through another panic and lockdown. We are so far a week into a “cyclone lockdown”.
There have been two days of school closures in a large part of the state, deferred hospital treatments, extra delays of construction work (beyond justified by the weather), and shortages at supermarkets (especially toilet paper, the preferred emergency ration).
It is okay to prepare for potential power losses and strong winds. But “potential” is a key word here. Why did we panic early rather than waiting for better information?
Conditional statements seem too advanced. Differential consideration of risks—based on location in this case, rather than age and health condition in the COVID case—seem too subtle. All I hear is that a risk is a risk, so stop complaining.
The craziest part is how much people love it.
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Interesting – beers in green rooms during lockdowns.
A Stickier Starmer work-related event.
But you need to realise, if they were as scared as their public speech warranted, privately they would have just scurried home after the show….
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When Covid shutdowns came and businesses, schools, etc, were closed there was much less demand for the types of toilet paper (TP) used in large buildings and a greater demand for the home-style TP. Producers did (finally) switch the production types.
We have shopped at a big-box store (COSTCO, USA) that sells TP in bundles of 30 rolls. It doesn’t spoil like milk or go stale like bread.
I find it amusing when people say they run out. 🤠
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“The craziest part is how much people love it.”
A lot of people love the drama, it makes the feel involved. A bit like “reality” TV watching. Many will be spinning their Albert survival stories for years.
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I remember listening to atmospheric physicist Richard Lindzen. He said that traditional meteorology was that increasing temperatures decreased the frequency of cyclones. But what would Meteorologists and atmospheric experts know about Climate?
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Many years ago, the IPCC said that computer models show there would be a decrease in temperature contrast between the surface and six miles up, lowering the number and intensity of Hurricanes.
Many years ago, Chris Landsea reported a lowering in the number of Hurricanes due to a lowering of temperature differentiation between the Tropics and the Arctic regions.
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I was aware that the greater the temperature difference the greater the possibility of severe weather. Tornado alley in the USA is the result of warm air from the Gulf of America running into cool air coming from Canada. One lot wants to go up and the other down creating a conflict of interest and a storm.
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I would like to know how that works.
I thought cyclones developed when the sea surface temperature becomes very warm.
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It’s pretty obvious that the Bureau of Meteorology wasn’t able to predict what“ cyclone Alfred “ had in store for the 4 million Queenslanders. They couldn’t predict the weather 1 week into the future. But that’s OK we all shout “ hurray “ because they can’t predict the weather 5, 10, 15 or 50 years into the future, even the actual temperatures, with astonishing accuracy . In addition they claim they’re not bullshitting you either. Yeah, pull the other one.
Alfred wasn’t even a cyclone. It was a large “ tropical rain depression “. Any event like Alfred, occurring south of the Tropic of Capricorn is not a cyclone due in part that they never make landfall as a cyclone with conditions exceeding category 1 wind velocities!
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I noticed the media started refering to it as ex tropical cyclone Alfred. Sounds much newsier than a tropical storm.
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Why does the BOM use a different “scarier” Cyclone category? They were going on about a CAT 2 cyclone when the winds were well below the 119km/h required for a CAT 1 Cyclone as used by NOAA and ECMWF etc. Anyone know why this is so. Living in New Zealand we have the same problem.
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No idea. He did not explain. Yes, evaporation increases. And rapidly rising less dense warm wet air. It is counter intuitive.
“We’re talking of a few tenths of a degree change in temperature. None of it in the last eight years, by the way. And if we had warming, it should be accomplished by less storminess. But because the temperature itself is so unspectacular, we have developed all sorts of fear of prospect scenarios – of flooding, of plague, of increased storminess when the physics says we should see less.”
“Basic dynamics of the atmosphere calls for reduced extremes and storminess in a warmer world.”
And as an atmospheric physicist, not a Climate Scientist, this is his field.
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However I can think of the basic physics logic. I was wrong about ‘evaporation increases’.
Evaporation is a combination of sea surface temperature (set by currents and the sun) and atmospheric temperature(Global Warming). Man made Global Warming is about increased air temperatures, not water surface. In the potboiler which is the near closed Carribean in summer, massive evaporation is a consequence of a hot summer tropical sun.
But increased atmospheric temperatures would reduce evaporation and also water carrying capacity. And the rate of violent rise of warm air from a hotter ocean surface would also be reduced as the air is already less dense. Archimedes principle.
Hot air expands very dramatically with increased temperature, unlike hot water. This produces massive uplift like a hot air balloon. Which in turn leads to vortexes and storms and hurricanes. But substantially warmer air would reduce not increase all these effects.
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TdeF,
Huh? E.g. try here.
The explanation for Lindzen’s claim was covered above by Lawrie. It’s like a heat engine. Temperature difference does the work. Heat alone doesn’t do anything.
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Cyclones require convective potential to spin up. Weak convective potential can develop over ocean at 15C. By 22C, the convective potential can produce rain. By 26C the convective storms can form the anvil like plumes. The limit is 30C because the ocean reaches thermal equilibrium under cyclic instability.
Cyclones spin up under Coriolis acceleration so require to be at latitudes higher than about 7 degrees to spin up. Cyclones cannot exist close to the equator but convective instability can.
Cyclones start as convective instability but become self-sustaining when the ocean surface is above 26C and they have a source of dry air feeding them to promote water evaporation. Alfred was primarily fed from dry air coming up from NZ but there was also dry air involved from NSW and that air stream ended up in defining the path. But Alfred was close to tracking off toward NZ. I was impressed with BoM that they got the track almost right but they were way off with the time it sat off the coast feeding off the NZ air.
Alfred started life in the Coral Sea at 13S over water at 30C back on 20 Feb. Most start in the low latitudes over water close to 30C and head toward the dry air that feeds them. By April, the ones developing in the Indian Ocean will be northbound.
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Thanks. The essential role of dry air is far from obvious. And I have no idea what is meant by coriolis forces which to my thinking are simply the reverse subjective view of centripetal forces resulting from spinning, but we have had this discussion before. Or why latitude is so critical other than the obvious connection with solar intensity, water temperature, sea temperature.
And surprised that hot air has higher water carrying capacity, but I guess the dramatic part is dry air with no water in the first place.
This all confirms Lindzen’s statement, borne out by observation by Judith Curry, that hurricane frequency drops with increasing temperature. The exact opposite of the Climate Change alarmists.
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I have been wondering about this comment by RickWill.
I am having difficulty with the logic. My understanding of Hadley cells are that the warm moisture laden air at the tropical convergence zone rises until it hits the colder air above where the water vapour condenses and falls as rain. This is known as the Monsoon. The dried air then circulates falling at about 30 degrees in lattitude, hence the great deserts of the world exist in those areas. H/T Thank you John L Daly for your little book.
A similar mechanism I would assume applies for the cyclones of the Southern hemisphere. The warm tropical air rises. The change of state from vapour to liquid at the top of this column lowers the pressure drawing more saturated warm air into the column. At some point the rising column will begin to spin as Rickwill has explained.
In effect the cyclone is turbocharged by the change of state. Water vapour rises, condenses and falls as rain. Hence cyclones are not only windy, they also tend to be very wet.
So not to sure what the dry air has to do with the path of the cyclone unless it is cold and dry (like powder snow) in the upper atmosphere assisting condensation. I would like to understand the reason behind RickWill’s forecast.
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Dry air is denser than moist air. Cyclones draw dryer air at low altitude into their circulation. That dry air evaporates water the lowers the density of the air so it rises, then cools, produces condensation then heads off in the reverse direction from where it came at high altitude to complete the circulation.
The Hadley cells operate in the tropics. The Ferrel Cells have rising air in the sub-tropics and falling air in the temperate zones in both hemispheres. But cyclones create their own circulations independent of these more persistent circulations. Cyclones require convective potential to start them up. They must be higher than about 7 degrees latitude so the converging air begins to spin. They must be over warm water that is easily evaporated and they must be fuelled by converging dry air that can evaporate the warm water to lower the air density so it rises.
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Thanks RickWill and to Jo for her Blog.
Very interesting as to why dry air more dense.
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It’s temperature differential, not simply temperature.
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At the very end of the LIA in the Southern Hemisphere, with humongous icebergs in the Southern Ocean, we get a clue to the cause of extreme cyclones.
‘When it comes to extreme weather, cyclones are top of my list. The most extreme cyclone to hit Queensland, Tropical Cyclone Mahina, was arguably the world’s most intense with a central pressure recorded at 880 hectopascals, a 12-metre storm surge, and 300 kilometre per hour winds. It was named, by Queensland government meteorologist, Clement Wragge. That was in 1899 – 126 years ago.’ (Jennifer Marohasy)
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Clement Wragge was the first to use the naming of Cyclones, and he developed that convention which is now the standard, operating from Crohamhurst in Queensland.
His work was handed down to Inigo Jones, then to Lennox Walker, and his son, Hayden Walker now carries it on, as long range weather forecasters.
At one time I mentioned it on one of the green leaning sites, and I was mercilessly ‘howled down’. The main thrust of their comments was that Long Range Weather Forecasting was outright quackery.
When I ever so politely mentioned that the main thrust of Global Warming was to predict the weather many many decades into the future ….. “Oh that’s different!! This is Science.
Tony.
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Ric,
I sat through tropical cyclone Agnes, Townsville, 1956, wind speeds to 140 kph.
In 1956, atmospheric CO2 was not blamed for the cyclone or its properties because the climate change story was yet to be invented. But, the cyclone happened.
I vividly recall being on the corrugated iron roof of our home on Bowen Road, hammering in more lead-headed nails as sheets of iron from other buildings whistled by. Just as I thought the winds could not get stronger, they did, over and over for hours. Not a comfortable experience for a 14 year old. Geoff S
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No one to tell you “to keep safe” either. Or prayers for that matter. Lads like you,and most here were given responsibilities at an early age and they were taken.
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Lift the veil on wind power killing eagles
From CFACT
By David Wojick
Just a thought, but instead issuing permits to kill birds, we should issue a fine for each bird killed. This would go a long way to controlling the killing of birds as well as the construction of wind turbines.
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https://jacobin.com/2021/08/australia-violence-repression-philippines-morrison-duterte-human-rights
Australia has also extended support to the Philippines National Police, which has been instrumental in enacting Duterte’s “war on drugs.” In 2016, the Sydney Morning Herald reported on Australia’s “comprehensive,” “multimillion dollar support” of the PNP through the provision of equipment, instruction in surveillance techniques and counter-terrorism, and training of over twelve hundred officers. This support, Lindsay Murdoch wrote, came in spite of mounting evidence of the involvement of PNP personnel in “targeted assassinations and vigilante hit squads.”
…but aren’t we recruiting OUR police from overseas?
Just surfin round the latest news…
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“Australia has also extended support to the Philippines National Police, which has been instrumental in enacting Duterte’s “war on drugs.””
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MA,
Various NGOs have been doing the same things elsewhere . Its all about promoting and protecting “democracy”.
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This is the peer-reviewed paper by Peter McCullough et al from 2024 suggesting that the outbreak of bird flu in the United States, which also spread elsewhere, may have been due to “gain of function” research at both a US Government lab. and one in the Netherlands.
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Here is a discussion of the published literature and the funding structures of the gain of function research How Kawaoka was undertaking ‘gain of function’ in 2014.
And. how the destruction of the poultry fams attracted the ‘cruelty to animals gang. The same mob that have happily ignored the birds and bats underneath the wind turbines.
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I did see his blog.
What *I* see is way more interesting though, when you plot outbreak locales temporally.
Amazing how birds respect borders isn’t it – almost like a force field confining them to specific areas.
/I should post a screen capture so everyone can go “wwwhhhoooaaa!!!”
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White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is 27 and her husband is 59 and they have a baby. It’s an interesting story of love despite the age gap. Love is love, as the Left say, but most seem very hostile about this relationship. This article from the South China Morning Post is not so hostile as most.
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What lovely words. The baby will keep him young – and on his toes.
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Conservative YouTuber Liberal Hivemind looks at the cruelty of the Left, in this case how they mocked a child brain cancer survivor who was celebrated by President TRUMP and who made him an honorary member of the Secret Service and an honorary police officer as that’s all he ever wanted to be.
https://youtu.be/49EKq8qvm8Y
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The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is abruptly terminating at least 33 research grants for projects studying why some people are hesitant to receive vaccines or evaluating strategies that could encourage vaccine uptake, Science has learned. An additional nine grants may be modified or cut back. Scientists who received these grants will receive termination letters this evening.
https://www.science.org/content/article/nih-ax-grants-vaccine-hesitancy-mrna-vaccines
A person with direct knowledge of the situation says NIH has also requested lists of projects involving messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines, which some vaccine skeptics think are unsafe because they believe, without evidence, that the vaccines could modify DNA or cause various health issues. The agency is also seeking a list of collaborations between NIH researchers and international partners on any topic.
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Some?
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Good
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MA,
RFK jnr is cleaning house . He is finally allowed to act . The return of honest science , and the end of the revolving door to big pharma from the health authorities . The health bureaucracy is almost unaccountable .
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Labor has spent billions of dollars “off budget”. It’s probably far more by now.
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This is not honest accounting. I’m no accountant,just an average bloke who has to budget like most people.
No spending can be “off budget”.
If you or I spend money it has to come from our accounts. Therefore it affects our budget.The media and all politicians, no matter which party they represent should demand an end to this practice.
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Trump’s attempt to force Ukraine into a peace deal with Russia has borne fruit:
https://www.youtube.com/live/HNs1t9NiC9g
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Good news? Maybe?
This is clearly many levels above my pay grade but …
Being forced into a peace deal used to be called surrender. And if there is a peace deal why does Ukraine require a resumption of missile guidance and freely flowing funds?
Then again any ceasefire is better than no ceasefire.
As the Pink Floyd song goes, generals sat and the lines on the map moved from side to side.
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It’ll be interesting to see the reaction from Russia, as this proposed agreement includes features already rejected by Russia.
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Given Russias experience with the Minsk Accords which were negotiated in bad faith and just used as breathing space to better arm Ukraine, I wouldnt blame Russias if they declined to negotiate until they have completed their stated objective and also closed the death trap that Kursk has become.
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Trump made an interesting comment about Putin being generous to Ukraine in any peace talks.
https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/donald-trump-claims-vladimir-putin-will-be-more-generous-in-peace-talks-and-believes-ukraine-more-difficult-to-deal-with-after-clash-with-president-volodymyr-zelensky/news-story/e20c153745a3f52923929a4919a4de00
This story has been sold by the western press as Russian aggression. Given the history of Ukraine, I have been wondering if it was more about stopping ethnic cleansing in Ukraine.
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Yarpos,
Exactly . Russia won’t settle for anything less than what they have stated . Fool me once…
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What they stated at the time is less than what is required to satisfy Russia’s security needs.
Russia’s longer term security involves a workable solution for both countries and Russia-Ukraine cooperation in rebuilding infrastructure and reassuring populations.
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“That was quick.”
Having the Kursk boiler closed by the Russians spending days moving through the gas pipeline has trapped a lot of Ukraine’s best fighters. Its now ‘surrender or die’, so a ceasefire would help Zelensky a lot and the offer came at a very crucial moment.
Hopefully Putin will drag its implementation out for a month or two while they clean up Kursk and take Pokrovsk.
Simplicous reckons
“Trump says US has ‘almost’ ended pause in sharing intelligence on Ukraine …This makes an important point: how can Russia possibly trust its most dire and existential security guarantees to such a flip-flopping administration, which can promise one thing and deliver another moments later? It only goes to show that Russia should ignore all overtures and flourishes from Trump and his team, and continue prosecuting the campaign to its finish. ”
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/kursk-collapse-accelerates-as-daring
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Ceasefire over land, sea and air for 30 days.
Both sides can take a breather and consider their future, but if Putin says no to the cessation of hostilities then the whole world is under no illusion of his intent.
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Ceasefire rejected by Putin. He’s not stupid.
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The point is, if he refuses a ceasefire then he is a megalomaniac warmonger, a pariah on the world stage. A dead man walking.
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Oh please, really? Perhaps in the global minority “rules based order” crowd who think they are the international community. They certainly beleive their own propaganda.
The requirements for a ceasefire have been consistently stated for quite a while now. If other parties choose to ignore that totally then whose problem is that?
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Update from Ukraine | Ukraine Pushed Ruzzia Again in Pokrovsk but continue to lose in Kursk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPRr5YjnN-4
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Armament restrictions on Ukraine will be lifted. I don’t expect Russia to agree to a “ceasefire” and I don’t blame them.
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Why?
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It’s easy for Ukraine to request a ceasefire … they are losing. Problem is that Russia got suckered once, and there’s deep distrust and bad blood over the first time it happened so I doubt they will fall for it a second time.
https://original.antiwar.com/ted_snider/2025/02/19/trump-blames-ukraine-what-the-new-york-times-gets-right-and-what-the-new-york-times-gets-wrong/
If people would learn the history, it would be easier to explain what’s happening now.
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Copper / Cobalt Tailings collapse. Around half of Zambians live in the Kafue River basin. The Kafue is actually a tributary of the mighty Zambezi.
On 18 February 2025, a major tailings storage facility (TSF) failure occurred at a Sino Metals facility near to Chambishi in Zambia.
https://eos.org/thelandslideblog/chambishi-tsf-1
It is rumoured (Zambian Eye – so/so on truth) that Government has ordered the mine shut – https://zambianeye.com/govt-shuts-down-chinese-mine/
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and Lithium ‘brine mining’ and fresh water: https://eos.org/opinions/concerns-over-lithium-water-and-climate-in-earths-two-highest-deserts
freshwater is needed throughout the processing stage to help purify chemical compounds.
about 100,000–800,000 liters of water are needed per metric ton of lithium extracted
(contrast is 200-350 litres per tonne of coal)
https://eos.org/opinions/concerns-over-lithium-water-and-climate-in-earths-two-highest-deserts
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Not sure how to make that contrast when cubic kilometres of coal are mined, for diffetent purposes with different processes.
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FWIW
“Biden Cronies Cash In: Vaccine Company Registered to a PO Box, Run by Ex-Biden Staffers, Received $28 MILLION in Admin’s Final Months”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/biden-cronies-cash-vaccine-company-registered-po-box/
High quality research?
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Yes, and the ‘Mob’ have spent $ 2 million of that already. Musk and DOGE are trying to get the balance of $ 28 million back.
The ‘Company’ has no website and only a PO Box Address. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
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You would think they would be better at money laundering
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Holy Mo, I thought ‘fossil fuels’ were dead – not so in Saudi Arabia where the world’s latest, and most expensive, ski resort is being constructed on the Neom mountains (2,600m) overlooking the Gulf of Aqaba and the Red Sea: where miracles never cease.
https://www.snow-forecast.com/whiteroom/snowmaking-in-saudi-arabia-as-ski-resort-construction-gathers-pace/
Trojena is a MASSIVE alpine city playground being built for the 10th Asia Winter Games in 2029, as well as for the rich and infamous who seek their latest ‘Mecca’. In the short promo vid, you can appreciate the wonders of man’s use of oil and the varied benefits it brings, ie. trucks, cranes, diggers, materials, etc., with the head engineer, Dave McKenzie, spouting a very Kiwi/NZ accent.
Surely the Gretas, the Manns, the Gores of this world will be winging their way to ‘the kingdom’ to march in protest against this planet-destroying carbon-heavy slap in the face of all things Green And Gaia (GAG), unless they have shares in it…
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BTW it’s snowing again in NZ today, admittedly & thankfully only down on the South Island, where yet another sneaky southerly buster is blasting up the east coast.
As Annie confirmed, the vernal equinox is not til next week, yet ‘nature’ and her little critters seem to know otherwise, as they’re on the move and making preparations for the coming change of season, brrrr!
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Or autumnal equinox! Mother Nature will do what she will, regardless of us anyway. We have an artificially early leaf drop as it’s been so dry with plenty of hot days for a change; back to the past here. We had one morning a few weeks ago when the min. temp. was 1.4C in supposedly high summer!
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Looking at windy.com I wouldn’t want to be paddling a canoe across Cook St. Does it EVER stop blowing there?
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It is sold as a Saudi Smart City initiative.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ak4on5uTaTg
I am sure our democratic allies in the Mid East are doing fabulous with this project.
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Gotta love the Irish sense of humour. Wonder if the Bush Crime Family’s friends, the bin Laden Construction Company, is neck-deep in this sustainable diverse equitable inclusive oasis.
And that Spacelink™️ guy, he’s in it too, or was that just hyperbowl?
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A mate in London doesn’t have an electric bike, but ‘grabs on to catch a ride’ on electric bikes that are going his way, especially for the up hills.
He illustrates the ‘free rider’ problem around the global carbon reduction “commons” well when he is doing this I reckon.
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WHY GRID MANAGEMENT IS FAILING KPF 09-03-2025
I am convinced that the vast majority of politicians have no understanding of how the electricity grid works.
If they did, they wouldn’t be making such detrimental policy decisions regarding energy generation and planning.
Worse than that, they think that they don’t have to understand it!
The critical issues are:
The number generators and the number of types of inputs involved in supply to the grid:
• coal
• gas
• hydro
• wind
• solar
• others and interconnectors
The need to balance inputs from all the above to satisfy demand
The need to maintain exactly the constant voltage and frequency across all 3 phases at all times, second by second, regardless of inputs available and the loads demanded by the aggregate of customers, domestic and commercial.
Instead of understanding all this the politicians just go along with whatever their ‘advisors’ tell them and make energy policy decisions that are counterproductive. Energy decisions that should be made by engineers, not politicians.
1. All politicians involved in these decisions should be obliged to get fully trained in the grid structure, operations and economics.
2. The convoluted five minute bidding system run by AEMO should be abandoned and replaced with the system that prevailed around 1995 before ‘renewables’ were introduced to the system.
The original system was operated by a number of state-owned utilities using coal fired generators and run by engineers.
The policy adopted by COAG in 1995 for electricity supply was claimed to provide for sustainable reductions in price would best be achieved by creating a competitive market model for the industry in place of state-owned utilities. It hasn’t worked out!
Retail Electricity Prices by state-owned coal fired utilities prior to the introduction of AEMO:
Clearly, prices were trending down at that time and were around 8 cents per kWh in 1996.
Compare those prices with today’s prices (2025) of typically 30 to 35 cents per kWh, an increase of 375% to 438%.
The CPI has risen over the same period (1996-2025) by only 217%.
It seems clear that since the privatisation of the state-owned enterprises and the fragmentation of the entire system into
retail functions, distribution functions and generating functions has increased complexity, overheads and costs.
The distribution industry has been split five ways and all sold overseas, and there are in excess of fifteen separate retail licences.
The AEMO enters into hedge agreements with generators, but obliged to make all purchases from the pool, and new generators (e.g. solar and wind) are given priority right of access to the transmission network. We are all paying for this complexity and bias.
We would all be much better off if the systems in place prior to 1995 were still operating and AEMO did not exist.
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I find it hard to believe that no qualified engineers have ever tried, even forthrightly, to tell the politicians (or their uni graduate “advisers”) making these decisions that they’re doing the wrong thing, that their decisions are in fact completely the opposite of how an electricity grid should be operated, and that the resulting consequences are severely damaging the economy, causing hardship, and actually weakening the country as a whole.
By forthrightly I mean clear charts/diagrams, costs and figures, in their faces, fist banging on the table when they refuse to acknowledge the basics of electricity generation and grid supply, and the direct relationship to the economy and the lives of everyday people. It really is not difficult to grasp, yet here we are …
We have to embrace the notion that damaging the economy, causing hardship and weakening the country as a whole is exactly what they intend. The only remaining question is why, and for whose benefit?
40
“The only remaining question is why, and for whose benefit?”
Definitely not for our benefit, some large power far away.
00
I contend that the only reason the grid is still up and sort of functioning is that we haven’t hit the point where there just isn’t enough dispatchable generation…. yet, but it’s coming and isn’t far away.
00
FWIW
Concerns in Canada are growing about Trump’s aggressive stance, with officials believing his comments are no longer mere posturing or negotiation tactics. Straight from the Diplomatic School of Putin.
22
TRUMP realises that Canada, like the countries of Western Europe and Australia and NZ, is (are), or soon will be, (a) failed state(s).
Why cooperate with countries that hate their own existence?
131
A bit strong, but not having any cards to play with and having just been tariffed, do we put up a for-sale flag to avoid aggression from the other high-roller player?
22
They don’t hate their OWN existence, they hate everything else.
The EU will be first to go down and to war.
The tooth fairy doesn’t pay tariffs, as Buffett said. The masses do which is what Trump doesn’t grasp but should. He’s hurting the American people AND the overseas sellers.
China is in an extremely bad way socio-economically and the CCP’s illegal operations (no tariffs) globally are propping the country up.
A fun filled year awaits.
23
From the Spectator Australia –
A good way of interacting with Trump is to propose business deals. Australia should have been proactive in offering investment opportunities, military collaborations, and partnerships. Talk strength. Offer creative options. Make promises on his favourite topics – like free speech – which are doubly beneficial to the Australian people.
Too many politicians see Trump as a ‘threat’ to their economies instead of a wild-card opportunity to elevate Australia’s fortunes. The man likes investment. He likes trade. That is why our largest mining companies are over there, prospecting.
What do we pay our politicians for? To sit around moping and crying with the European Union, who have done nothing but disadvantage us and play petty politics all day? To roleplay at being SES workers, carrying sandbags and nodding at the swell?
I would say, ‘Hop on a plane and be productive!’ but it’s doubtful Labor can boast a single minister from the private sector who knows how to speak the language of prosperity.
Someone who says we are ‘continuing to engage constructively’ with America, or ‘it’s in Australia’s interest, but it’s also in the economic interests of the United States for Australia to be exempted’ hasn’t got a clue how to handle America.”
Top Stuff IMHO.
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Both factions of the Uniparty in Australia are opposed to free speech so that’s not going to happen.
20
As Regis Resources discovered … you can strike Gold in Australia but you aren’t allowed to pull it out of the ground. Of course they are prospecting anywhere but here.
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Australia has a huge quarry and won’t become a failed state anytime soon, dunno about the Kiwis.
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Aren’t you tempted to compare their “body language” to that of Emperor Xi? Sultans Erdogan and Lukashenko ?
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Due to revolting deification of grandfather Kim, I since childhood detested North Korea.
Probably assisted by other good literature available in the USSR.
But 3 generations on, it is clear to me words mean nothing, said or written, even authenticated by Grand State Seal – e.g. see Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurance (1994)
The deeds, on the other hand, have a long lasting impact. Even Kim the Fourth will know by heart what happened in previous century to trusty little Muammar and improve, improve, improve…
BTW, at Budapest, besides silly little Ukraine (and Belarus) another interesting country swapped their nuclear arsenal for nice words – Kazakhstan. Not the size of Australia but close.
Now, this is the case where Putin’s arguments at least sound slightly rational – unclear borders, who was where first, who developed the country and enforced common (metropolian) language and vastly different culture. That is not the current war, where truly no one knew 300 years ago your family was Russian or Ukrainian.
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You regularly come up with interesting stuff Rowjay.
The NY Times just about has a negative credibility rating these days.
Is any reputable source carrying the story? And was it attributed to Trump or Trudeau or both or neither?
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Look up GroundNews.
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Nope. Got nothing. Links are traditional.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/07/world/canada/trump-trudeau-canada-51st-state.html
Above is paywalled – Ground News supplies summaries and also rates factuality, together with left/centre/right reporting stats.
10
FWIW – latest Kunstler
“The Glow of the Gaslight
“There’s a chance to restore democracy from the bureaucracy, but just a chance.” —Elon Musk ”
https://www.kunstler.com/p/the-glow-of-the-gaslight
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FWIW
“Markers On the Road to The Green Energy Wall — Electric Trucks Edition”
“In a post in December 2021, I first asked which state or country would be the first to hit the “Renewable Energy Wall” — described as “a situation where the electricity system stops functioning, or the price goes through the roof,” or some other aspects of impossibility become so unavoidable that the zero carbon fantasy must be abandoned. In subsequent posts I have explored various ways that the Wall was starting to manifest — for example, cancellation of offshore wind energy developments, and abandonment of large investments in producing so-called “green hydrogen.”
Although the coming of the Wall has been obvious to intelligent observers for a long time, the green energy fantasists had set their statutory and regulatory mandates sufficiently far into the future that there was no immediate reckoning. But now, five and more years on, that is starting to change. The first of the impossible mandates are suddenly looming. The arrival of President Trump on the scene has also been a huge negative for the green energy crowd. But for today I’ll focus on a subject that has much more to do with reality than with any action of the President. That subject is fully electrified heavy duty trucks.”
More at
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/03/11/markers-on-the-road-to-the-green-energy-wall-electric-trucks-edition/
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https://humanrights.gov.au/sites/default/files/2025-03/AHRC%20Report%20COVID-19%20Pandemic%20Response%20Final.pdf
2300 story submissions
The Commission received many story submissions in which people spoke of injury, harm and anger arising because their fears of vaccine side-effects were dismissed and that their claims of vaccine injury were ignored or undermined.
From such a small population, ‘many’ sounds like a high proportion of injuries for ‘rare’ side effects.
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https://news.rebekahbarnett.com.au/p/australias-covid-response-caused
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When you start thinking about how more than half the people out there want the government to hold you down and inject you with experimental drugs, you realise, you get the Government you deserve
00
More illegal activities at USAID.
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I haven’t figured out whether the order was issued by the good guys or the bad guys.
And what would be on paper that is not stored electronically?
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Where the money went and who got’s it. A hard copy can’t just disappear in an instant.
10
So you’re saying that the new regime is doing something illegal?
30
Debunked by the White Housw Press Sec according to the Gateway Pundit.
Anything important already filed and held, just destroying old stuff.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/03/white-house-responds-email-senior-usaid-official-ordering/
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Good to hear.
30
Problem is the old Mandy Rice Davies rhetorical question, well they would say that wouldn’t they.
The truth is out there somewhere, but I don’t think anybody’s going to like it.
10
DOGE Uncovers Another $3B Wasted on Climate Change
Imagine if we Aussies had our own version of DOGE. How much taxpayer dosh could we save for things that are really important – like helping Australia prosper. As a preliminary we should start with GROA via VAO.
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Aus DOGE could start with politician travel and travel claims.
In the last 3 months of 2024:
Albo spent $850k
Peter Dutton $590k
Chris Bowen keeping emissions down with $400k
Tony Burke spent $250k
Adam Bandt spent $210k
That’s just 3 months.
40
The lowest cost traveller is the Communist Bandt.
Even he spends around $2333 of Aussie taxpayer dollars EVERY SINGLE DAY on travel.
I am an experienced traveller and I don’t know how its possible for a normal person to spend that much money every day for 90 days on travel. Especially as he is actually meant to be working as a politician as well.
40
It’s the room service hookers.
10
Booze.
No public money should ever be spent on booze – if you want booze at an event, it should be opened to a charity to run a cash bar.
None of us get our tax bill and say ‘That’s grand, now can I buy you a drink?’
10
Sell gold and buy Tesla cars
Tesla cars are a far better store of value than gold. They hold their value much better and have greater longevity than bars of gold. More importantly, we need to support Elon Musk because Tesla stock is falling. If we can all finance more Teslas, we can help improve Tesla stock prices and Elon Musk’s paper value can rise once more. Considering all the sacrifices Elon Musk is doing for us, this is the least we can do to return the favour.
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https://www.news.com.au/technology/motoring/motoring-news/screwed-aussies-trying-to-sell-their-used-teslas-face-massive-challenges/news-story/2f140cb5a8cbda0f794e12ddebdc462b
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Saves me doing a Wednesday funny.
90
Man in his 50s arrested today for spray-painting / tagging half-a-dozen Teslas in Auckland, NZ as a protest against Mr Musk’s DOGE dept in the USA. All the vehicles have been ‘written-off’. I’d say the bloke who did this probably wrote his own mind off long ago. People are strange…
20
Oh geez.
As long as he stays in NZ.
And is prevented from mating with a laid off USAID functionary …
we may have a chance to get control of the zombie apocalypse.
10
Did Trump come in with the tariffs set too high? … Is 25% too high and too sudden?
It seems to me he’s disrupting the plans of business people everywhere: the guy who imports and distributes products will sell less stock at the higher price, so he now has too much warehouse space (and perhaps too many employees) — does he shop around for smaller premises? — or does he “diversify” into other products? Which products? Why take the risk if a recession is looming… Okay, he’ll lay off staff — who’ll employ them if companies are ‘letting people go’?
Similar deal for the exporters: now, their current production is more than they can expect to sell so they have a misallocation of their resources, too.
It’s too disruptive when business people who have to plan far ahead have the rug pulled from under their feet like this.
Thanks to Trump a lot of local and foreign businesses will find they have a ‘misallocation of resources’ problem to contend with.
Why not set tariffs at 5% to start with, and see where that goes? They could go up in increments each year … or maybe not.
Less disruption to markets = more efficient allocation of resources = better productivity.
I just wonder how badly Trump is going to f— things up with his “I looove Tariffs!”.
24
Do you understand how high the tariffs other countries have on US products are? German tariffs on US cars are 25% vs US tariffs on their cars 5%. Canada has tariffs of up to 200+% on US dairy products. And so it goes on. On trade tariffs Trumps is trying to stop having the US being ripped off, as he sees it.
30
This seems to be more of a power busting move than macro-fiscal
We live in planned economies – it is just large corporates, not government, doing the planning
10
Because he doesnt want the tariffs, he wants to disrupt complacent markets and relationships and have people think instead of coasting
10
Yup, the ABC is at it again. Batteries will help you weather the power blackouts when a cyclone hits.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-10/no-quick-fix-to-qld-nsw-power-outages-as-grid-weakness-laid-bare/105031536
‘No quick fix’ to power outages in Qld, NSW as ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred lays bare grid vulnerability.
“The benefit of batteries
More likely, Mr Stabler said there were practical steps electricity providers could take to strengthen the system while not breaking the bank.
Chief among them is the adoption of batteries to help consumers — and the system more broadly — ride through the shocks of something like a cyclone.
According to Mr Stabler, medium-sized batteries that could be installed at a substation to serve an entire suburb or neighborhood would offer the most benefits.
He said it was only natural that spreading sources of generation and storage widely across an area would make it less vulnerable to the loss of any one power plant or line.”
So batteries will provide suburbs with backup power when the mains go out for a few days? If the power supply infrastructure is down how are we getting the power from the batteries at the substation to the homes? How are we getting the renewable power to the substations to charge the batteries when the infrastructure is down? Meanwhile its been raining for days, so no solar, and the wind has been just a tad too strong so we have to shut down the turbines. I really wonder how people can think up such nonsense
130
Living in a mountainous, sometimes bushfire prone area, I would not like to see multiple, spontaneously combustible installations around here.
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Its easy to think up such nonsense when you are not burdened by numeracy.
20
A warning from Mt Warning: Make Uluru Ayres Rock Again (MUARA). Time for climb-it change for our so called National parks which aren’t all that national anymore.
141
As I tell all my fretful worried friends:
Climb – It Rocks!
That’s what they’re there for,
and the view is outstanding.
10
Is this the world’s toughest woman?
https://youtu.be/Lu9P3VaMCho?si=5VbCLlS0KNY7QD83
Well, I’m impressed and a bit humbled too, both rare events.
Most men would struggle or refuse to do this.
20
FWIW – Istapudit lead in –
“THIS MUST HAVE BEEN PAINFUL FOR THE BOSTON GLOBE TO PUBLISH: ‘The lockdowns were never really effective:’ New research shows COVID stay-at-home orders did more harm than good.”
https://archive.is/PjdV9
“Thoughtful people on day one: lockdowns are stupid and will destroy the
economy while imposing devastating disruption upon our society.
Corporate media, five years later:”
https://instapundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/jordan_schachtel_boston_globe_lockdowns_03-11_2025-531×800.jpg
https://instapundit.com/707720/#disqus_thread
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Dan Andrews, are you awake.?
00
FWIW
“RFK Jr. Seeks To End Rule Allowing Food Companies To Bypass FDA Ingredient Approval”
“The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said on March 10 that it is seeking to terminate a rule allowing food manufacturers to use additives without formal regulatory approval.”
“The Generally Recognized As Safe (GRAS) rule allows companies to self-approve the inclusion of additives in food items without requiring a review and the approval of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The rule enables manufacturers to add an ingredient even if the FDA has not determined its safety.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/rfk-jr-seeks-end-rule-allowing-food-companies-bypass-fda-ingredient-approval
50
Left wing brain rot continues to spread, at least north of the 49th parallel.
Apparently, the new prime minister of Canada makes even Justin Trudeau look rational by comparison.
This is what was said about him in a recent email from the Australian Spectator:
40
A comment I read some where stated “they replaced the Puppet for the Puppet Master” alluding to the WEF.
40
Justin Trudeau overheard mumbling, “Miss me yet?”
20
JD Vance’s cousin who served in Ukraine speaks out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iaBpU8FnlU
Nate Vance for VP
23
You can only serve in your own country’s military.
He was contracted for security services in Ukraine.
00
FWIW
“The reason you’ve never heard of Ocean Fertilization”
https://www.onepercentbrighter.com/p/the-reason-youve-never-heard-of-ocean
10
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-12/new-details-key-figure-allegedly-five-antisemitic-sydney/105042580
Police also revealed the Dural caravan packed with explosives was now believed to be a hoax perpetrated by organised crime elements in order to obtain sentencing discounts.
??? – are they saying there is a judge linked in with this – only person that I can think of who can give a ‘sentencing discount’ ??
30
Bomb cyclone forecast to cause havoc in the US.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bomb-cyclone-to-spread-severe-weather-through-us-later-this-week/1890444
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California will still be in drought though. California has always been in drought, and at war with Oceania I believe.
00
https://trusttheevidence.substack.com/p/the-nhs-where-does-all-the-money-597
NHS England should be disbanded, with the exception of the NHS Fraud Squad, which should be amalgamated with its police counterpart, its budget doubled, and enhanced with an incentive mechanism. If you get a court conviction for, say, £500M worth of fraud, you get to keep 5%, which will be divided amongst the officers who secured the conviction.
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