Wednesday

10 out of 10 based on 8 ratings

100 comments to Wednesday

  • #
    John F. Hultquist

    Hello Jo and all interested in Covid,
    Point your browser to ” youcanknowthings (dot) com ”

    Find:
    How a neuroscientist solved the mystery of his own long COVID

    Science is amazing.

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      • #
        Honk R Smith

        Yes .. science is amazing.
        Especially when it is considering mysteries that are politically and socially acceptable for consideration because any other considerations would be conspiracy theories.

        “In other words, his immune system, which usually fights off viruses and bacteria, was attacking his own body.”
        It is anti-scientific to suggest that a vaccine could have anything to do with this.
        https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11405924/
        from the abstract …
        “Because of the enormous implications of the hypothesis that AIDS may be an unintended iatrogenic (physician-caused) disease, it is almost inevitable that this theory will engender heated opposition from many of those in the scientific establishment, and those with vested interests.”
        I mean, questioning the great vaccine victory over polio is unacceptable, just as it is unacceptable to suggest it is in any way implicative to any recent mandated situation.

        Any respectable scientist like this intrepid fellow, would never consider a conspiracy theory even if he himself had become debilitated by something that is obviously a conspiracy theory.

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      • #
        Peter C

        Dr Jeff Yau’s symptoms began in 2022, one month after he had a Covid infection.
        2022 was also the peak of the COVID vaccination program. His vaccination status was not mentioned.

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        • #
          Earl

          His vaccination status was not mentioned.

          Exactly. And of perhaps greater importance if he did take one was it before or after his first and, supposedly, only covid infection? Or (unknowingly and coincidentally) during his infection and his immune system suddenly had two fronts to fight.

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    • #
      David of Cooyal in Oz

      Autoimmune problem and no mention of vitamin D blood levels? Sounds like it wasn’t even tested. Even though it’s the moderator of the immune system, turns it up when needed, and down when not – provided there’s an adequate amount available.

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  • #
    tonyb

    This guy was the runner up in the recent Tory Party leader election. He is certainly being far bolder than his predecessors have been for many years.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14258569/Robert-Jenrick-Tory-immigration-alien-cultures-medieval-attitudes.html

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    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      We’ve been here before though, haven’t we – both in the UK and here in Australia. Candidates for election or leadership roles of conservative parties huff and puff, making themselves sound tough and realistic but, once elected, roll over in front of the machine. The past twenty years or so have seen many such politicians emerge but not a single one, once they actually have the power to DO the things they said they will do, come out of the trench shooting.

      I suspect, with heavy heart, that Poilievre in Canada will be the next disappointment. He’s talked a good game but I’ll be surprised if he isn’t a let-down in government because, you know, reasons.

      I still live in hope though, if Trump shows that actually implementing conservative policies goes down well with voters. That might embolden lily-livered conservatives elsewhere.

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  • #
    tonyb

    The UK seems to be surprised when we have winter weather in winter.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14259421/britain-coldest-night-temperatures-snow-ice-warnings.html

    Nearby upland Dartmoor has seen some snow the last day or two but here on the South Devon coast we have seen none. Its pretty cold though, but some nice winter sun.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      Yes.

      In the UK people seem to be surprised when it gets cold in winter.

      In Australia people (Lamestream Media and Government “authorities”) get surprised when it gets hot in summer and issue warnings of “catastrophic heatwaves”. The temperature at which a heatwave occurs gets lower and lower. It now seems to be about 30C (86F) or even less.

      It was even hot in 1828 with a recorded temperature of 53.9C (129F) at Buddah Lake, NSW, long before any claims of catastrophic anthropogenic global warming.

      Of course, all temperatures from before 1910 have been stricken from Australia’s official temperature records and replaced with the fully “homogenised” ACORN-SAT data set. Note, the original data is still available but for the purpose of “proving” Global Meltdown the BoM only uses “homogenised” data since 1910 and also it doesn’t take into account the change from mercury thermometers which are slow to respond to digital thermometers which respond instantly to any blast of heat e.g. from an engine.

      Homogenisation as practised by Australia’s Bureau of Meterology is the mysterious and undocumented and hence unrepeatable process by which recorded temperature data is altered to “improve” it. No one outside the BoM can reproduce the results because no one knows what the process is. Hence its not scientific.

      https://joannenova.com.au/2012/07/charles-sturts-time-so-hot-that-thermometers-exploded-was-australias-hottest-day-in-1828-53-9c/

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      • #
        Philip

        This summer is beyond a joke with the heat scare. Extraordinary hyperbole, and it’s not even a hot summer. It’s just summer. Surely normal people realise this? No.

        I always remember listening to a Russian telling of the absurd propaganda at the end of the Soviet era, that finally made people realise it was all lies. He told the story of hearing the harvest this year was the best ever and you go to the shop and there is no food. But it took a long time for people and extraordinary conditions for people to understand. Look at Argentina, how far they went down that hole before they woke up.

        It seems this is normal human behaviour. The only thing extreme about this summer is the propaganda.

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          KP

          ..sitting here reading this at 8am and thinking of putting a pullover on, in the height of Australian summer! The atmosphere is cold, being in the sun is warmer, but these last two months have not been hot.

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          • #
            Earl

            Yip, been in our pool 4 out of last 6 days and, at the height of Queensland summer, it (the water) is not getter warmer. In fact the only time so far this summer that it was comfortably walk straight in was back in November for about 1 week. Have an ear issue so the option to make a bracing dive straight in something of a no no hence (slow) wading in is currently a calculated staged progression with plenty of mental expletives the deeper I get.

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        • #
          David Maddison

          He told the story of hearing the harvest this year was the best ever and you go to the shop and there is no food. But it took a long time for people and extraordinary conditions for people to understand.

          Almost straight out of Orwell.

          It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grammes a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be REDUCED to twenty grammes a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.

          George Orwell, 1984

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      • #
        Graham Richards

        Questions that make me go “Hmmmm “

        Good morning to all, stay safe, and trust you all enjoy good health throughout 2025.

        Why is it that when archaeologists find human remains, they always determine that they are either male or female, but none of the other dozen so called genders?

        How is it that the government can’t control petrol prices…but the weather is something they say they can fix?

        Why were we told to lower our air conditioner usage on hot days to prevent overwhelming the electric grid while simultaneously being told to trade in our petrol cars for electric vehicles?

        Why is cancelling student debt a good idea? Does it make sense to reward people who do not honour their financial commitment by taxing the people who do?

        Are we living in a time where intelligent people are silenced, so that stupid people won’t be offended?

        Why is talking sexually in the workplace considered sexual harassment to adults…but talking about sexuality to children in Grade 3 at school considered education?

        If your electric car runs out of power on the highway, do you walk to a charging station to get a bucket of electricity?

        Why are the government saying we are running out of money for Medicare, but not for Welfare?

        Mice die in mouse traps because they do not understand why the cheese is free. Just like socialism.

        The most powerful governments on earth can’t stop a virus from spreading…but they say they can change the earth’s temperature, if you pay more taxes.

        If you don’t want to stand for the National Anthem, perhaps you should give your legs to a veteran who lost his. That way a real man can stand in your place.

        Dr

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        • #
          Yarpos

          “If your electric car runs out of power on the highway, do you walk to a charging station to get a bucket of electricity?”

          Depends. Is the driver Chris Bowen?

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      • #
        John B

        I could imagine The Age, the ABC and The Guardian wetting themselves, if the high temperature run of 6 consecutive days, in January 1908, happened today.
        1908: 15th_39.9, 16th_42.8, 17th_44.2, 18th_40.0, 19th_41.1, 20th_42.7 deg C

        (h/t to OldOzzie’s post, #20.1.1, in last Sunday’s comments)

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    • #
      Klem

      That’s cuz most people don’t know that global warming also causes global cooling.

      We know it of course, because science.

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    • #
      Steve of Cornubia

      Mrs Wife was talking to one of her cousins in the UK last night. He was complaining bitterly about the schools closing down because of the snow. Apparently, teachers have said it’s too dangerous to drive in those conditions. He was talking in his car, driving in “those conditions” to the shops, for milk. He pointed out that the roads were full of cars, all driving in “those conditions”.

      The thing he missed was that none of those other drivers were public employees. I bet the local council offices were closed, too.

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  • #
    tonyb

    I know that readers on this blog admire George Soros as much as they do Trudeau.

    Biden has just awarded the former the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian honour in the United States. I suspect Trump would not have done the same

    https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/soros-a-messiah-without-morals-2/

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Gain of function of avian influenza

    Yes, they are or have been doing gain of function “research” with bird flu.

    It’s very unlikely to infect humans as I said in the Tuesday thread, so why not modify it so it can easily infect humans?

    The fact that “scientists” are prepared to do this dangerous “research” is unbelievable.

    Haven’t we learned enough since the covid gain of function “research”?

    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7119956/

    https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4099557/

    https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2024-12-24/restrictions-on-gain-of-function-research-have-hobbled-h5n1-bird-flu-fight

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/scientists-seek-ethics-review-h5n1-gain-function-research

    https://fas.org/publication/science-and-security-the-moratorium-on-h5n1-gain-of-function-experiments-2/

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2023/04/11/lab-leak-accident-h-5-n-1-virus-avian-flu-experiment/11354399002/

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/commentary-case-against-gain-function-experiments-reply-fouchier-kawaoka

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/381926731_Avian_flu_and_the_predicted_pandemic_gain_of_function_vaccines

    https://www.science.org/content/article/exclusive-controversial-experiments-make-bird-flu-more-risky-poised-resume (paywalled)

    https://www.science.org/content/article/lawmaker-raises-new-flap-over-u-s-funded-virology-research-critics-call-risky (paywalled)

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    • #
      Vicki

      One of the very few reasonable achievements of the Barack Obama presidency was the prohibition of gain-of- function research. This prohibition was the reason, so it would appear, for the transfer of the corona virus gain-of-function research being conducted by organisations such as EcoHealth Alliance to the laboratory in Wuhan.

      While this is rarely seen discussed in Australia, it has been debated in government in the US, and is increasingly understood as the cause of the Covid-19 debacle. Even so, although it appears staff have been conveniently shifted around, research that suspiciously appears to be gain-of-function, such as in respect to bird flu, is continuing.

      I anticipate that this will fold spectacularly when the Donald and RJK Jnr. take control in January.

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    • #
      KP

      SMH headlines-

      “Bird flu has turned deadly in the US. Is it time to re-evaluate our pandemic risk? ..Researchers sequenced…the virus from backyard chickens… the virus had mutated to better latch onto receptors in our upper airways, a tweak that may allow it to become more infectious between people…The virus would have to mutate significantly … to evolve to thrive at a much lower temperature. At least five genetic tweaks would need to arise at once to make the virus airborne. The virus would also need to bind better to human cells…“We are a little bit concerned with the situation in the US where it has been quite challenging to control the infections in dairy cattle,” says Wong. “The longer that we allow the virus to carry on in a new host like cattle, we increase the risk of it picking up mutations that we don’t want.”

      So they have a little more gain-of-function work to do before they finally release it.

      https://www.smh.com.au/national/bird-flu-has-turned-deadly-in-the-us-is-it-time-to-re-evaluate-our-pandemic-risk-20250107-p5l2ij.html?js-chunk-not-found-refresh=true

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    • #
      John Connor II

      Red light! Deadly Covid on the loose. All citizen activity frozen or you’ll all die.
      Green light! Citizens can move about again briefly.
      Red light! Bird flu risk. Mask up and go nowhere or else.
      Green light! Citizens can move about again until the next…
      Red light! MP…Quad-pneumonia…mystery disease in China…Ebola…

      And then there was one.

      Should make it hugely popular tv series!

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Very good short PragerU video about the “girling” of the “Boy Scouts of America” as part of the Left’s misandric war against men.

    The Left destroy all institutions they are allowed near.

    Hopefully the new age of reason and decency to be ushered in by TRUMP will change this and Scouts can be returned to an institution that turns boys into men, not wimps.

    https://youtu.be/pL_2-RkkcIU

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    • #
      Philip

      A good news story. Some good young men still do exist.

      A girl who works on the farm I work at drove a tractor into the middle of the river and cooked it. We had to drag it out, which luckily we managed. But from there things got tricky with me and my boss well out of our mechanical depth.

      A young mechanic turned up to get the tractor onto a truck and took over. It was so rewarding watching his calm skill get around all the not insignificant problems, dead steering, dead hydraulics, dragging the cumbersome weight a km up the rough dirt track to the truck and load it on. And enjoying every second of it. Take a black and white photo of him, put a cigarette in his mouth, an Owen gun and a slouch hat, you had an exact replica of a Digger in PNG fighting the Japanese and winning, all while cracking jokes.

      The best remedy for any feminist is a natural disaster. The men they loathe so much with their theory, turn up and solve all their problems with reality.

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      • #
        Ronin

        What was she doing in the middle of the river, trying to park it.

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        • #
          Philip

          She parked it alright. There’s a clearly visible gravel bar we cross all the time. She didn’t follow the path. But it wasn’t really her fault. It was her first time going across and the boss should have given her better instructions.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Comments about how gut microbiome may affect the brain.

    https://youtu.be/Dh6Hy420-eQ

    See also paper about psychiatric and other outcomes of converting to a keto diet which will affect microbiome (although changes in microbiome aren’t specifically stated):

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165178124001513

    Highlights

    • Ketogenic diet therapy resulted in metabolic syndrome reversal in this cohort of serious mental illness.

    • Participants with schizophrenia showed an average of 32 % improvement according to the brief psychiatric rating scale.

    • The percentage of participants with bipolar who showed >1 point improvement in clinical global impression was 69 %.

    • Greater biomarker benefits observed with ketogenic dietary adherence.

    • Pilot trial suggests dual metabolic–psychiatric benefits from ketogenic therapy.

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    • #
      Vicki

      Love this research, David. Dr. Tom Borody and Emeritus Professor Bob Clancy ( Newcastle University) in this country have been indefatigable researchers and world leaders in this field. Clancy believes the gut/brain axis and the mucosal system have strong implications for Covid and Long Covid.

      The proliferation of research articles on Long Covid reflect this. The favourable responses to probiotics – especially Bifidobacterium Longus are being reported, Also – interestingly – good responses to anti-histamines – which, to me, reinforces the belief that Covid induces an autoimmune reaction in many people.

      Just fascinating.

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  • #
    TdeF

    In the Telegraph, “Apple told to drop AI tool that pushed fake BBC News stories
    Number of iPhone users falsely told by AI-generated notifications
    including
    “Brazilian Tennis player, Rafael Nadal, comes out as gay”
    “Luigi Mangione, the American accused of killing Brian Thompson, the healthcare executive, had shot himself.

    And the New York Times AI reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was arrested.

    As Jordan Petersen reported, anxious to please AI would make up stories and even make up credible references to support them. But it was all lies, elaborate lies.

    Hillary Clinton could source another pee pee dossier without hiring anyone. It would be much cheaper. And the FBI could use AI to create corroborating stories to falsify a FISA warrant and spy on the President. Again.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      The problem with AI is it has been weaponised by the Left by some of the world’s richest and most evil people and their corporations.

      Elon Musk is developing an honest AI, Grok, and another honest one was mentioned here yesterday or the day before (I can’t recall who mentioned it or find the post).

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      • #
        Robert Swan

        David Maddison,

        The problem with AI is…

        Just *one* problem? If we’re only allowed one, AI’s biggest problem is how seriously it’s being taken.

        It is a nifty thing.

        There was a bit of a fad for Edward de Bono in the 1970s. I remember one of his tips for creativity. You might be stuck on a problem, out of ideas. He suggested just looking up two or three random words in a dictionary and seeing if you could connect any of them with your problem. That could help quite a bit if you’re writing a book or a maybe making a sculpture. It might even help with some scientific insights (August Kekule said his inspiration for working out the ring structure of benzene was dreaming of a snake devouring itself).

        The random dictionary lookup is similar to what the neural net algorithms get up to (training data being the “dictionary”). It is following links, not logic.

        What AI delivers is a computerised dream. A nightmare if too many people take it seriously.

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      • #

        There is yet to arrive true AI as in Machine Learning. Current ‘AI’ computer software is programmed by a human.

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  • #
    David Maddison

    Albanese (Australia’s hated and incompetent ruler) has again raised the issue of four year terms for the Federal Government.

    I am the victim of four year terms in Sicktoria which has Australia’s worst government. It’s unbearable.

    I wrote this letter to the Herald Sun last time this was raised in 2017.

    This is a letter I had published in the Herald Sun 25th July, 2017.

    There are moves to institute fixed four year terms for Federal Parliament. This might sound reasonable in principle but we have to consider the current crop of mostly useless, incompetent and anti-Australian idiots we have. The strategy must be that of harm reduction. How can we minimise the harm done to Australia and Australians by politicians? The answer comes from politicians themselves on the few occasions they aren’t lying. They say that longer fixed terms will enable them to achieve their “objectives”. Since their objectives are mostly harmful, let’s keep the current arrangement.

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    • #
      Ronin

      Our elected clowns waste their first year by blaming the former govt for anything and everything, then proceed to think about who’s yelling the loudest and try to appease them, then realise the end of term is approaching and they start thinking about getting reelected

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      Ronin

      Thank goodness we don’t have 5 year federal terms like the UK, who are stuck with Starmer until 2029.

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      • #
        David Maddison

        It’s an appalling thought that Starmer will be there for five years. There won’t be much left to save of Once Great Britain once he’s finished.

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      • #
        Graeme No.3

        Ronin:
        Not to worry – with the News polls so bad the Labour Party will dump him and someone equally bad be in No.10.
        We been through this in Australia in the last few years.

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    • #

      Memo for ‘Tennis Upgrade Albo’. It is NOT the Albanese Guv’ment. It’s the Australian Federal Government. Please take note and listen and learn you free loader.

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  • #
    tonyb

    I know Trump has many fans here and what he says is not necessarily what he will do (huge tariffs etc) , but what do people make of his hint to take back the Panama Canal and to take over Greenland? You all may remember that he offered to buy Greenland last time he was in office and it seems to be rich in minerals and rare earths.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14259797/trump-announces-plan-gulf-mexico-change.html

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    • #
      John+in+NZ

      Trump is transactional. The Panama Canal and the Greenland thing is just his opening position in the negotiation.

      I have heard it said that the left take Trump literally but not seriously.
      His supporters take him seriously but not literally.

      I think it is hilarious the way he trolls the left and they don’t realise.

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      A lot of Trump’s one liners are jokes or half jokes designed to make heads explode. He is an experienced entertainer.

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      Ronin

      It diverts the idiots while he gets on with business.

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      • #
        Earl

        100% it is the smoke that he uses as cover while he sets up the mirrors so when the smoke clears ie he takes action the left are arguing or under mining themselves (reflection) and implode.

        The sucksuck from Suckerberg being case in point i.e. wait for the $$$$ claims from all those banned from meta to start coming in. This is going to be similar to that “Native American Indian” stopped from going up the Capitol stairs by schoolboy incident. All the leftards published their claims of racist, far right and he should be punched in the face stuff then he quietly sued and should be enjoying a very nice life now.

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    • #
      David Maddison

      There’s nothing new about the US wanting to buy Greenland. The first attempt to purchase it was in 1867, the same year the US purchased Alaska for $7.2 million. That would be $153.5 million in today’s inflated dollars. Hopefully TRUMP will do a similar deal for Greenland.

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        Scissor

        $60 billion could give everyone in Greenland over $1 million each, plus royalties like Alaskans have might be attractive to most.

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      • #
        Ronin

        ‘Sewards folly’ must be the world’s most canny purchase ever, 586,412 sqm for $7.2 M at 1867 dollars, it also held Russia at bay, they had been sniffing around California as well.

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    • #
      RickWill

      Trump “floats” ideas.

      Panama was aimed at lowering shipping costs. It flags to Panama that the transit fees are on Trump’s watch list. Also USA provides protection for the canal that world shipping enjoys but the USA is not compensated.

      Trump has discussed making Canada a USA State. Sort of makes sense to acquire Greenland from Denmark as part of expanding the USA territory eastward.

      Denmark is a wealthy nation but its “renewables” industry is not what it used to be. Woke can soon send you broke and Trump is prepared to give Denmark a helping hand by taking over Greenland should the need arise.

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        Graeme No.3

        RickWill:
        And Greenland would be a great place to “resettle” all those delusional ‘Democrats’ who talked about leaving the USA (and it would fit in with their delusion idea about the “World being set on fire by humans”).

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          David Maddison

          And who was the clown that said about 20 years ago that when the world boils the only place we’ll be able to live is Antarctica?

          Oh, that’s right, “Professor Sir David King”, Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government and Head of the Government Office for Science from 2000 to 2007.

          https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/why-antarctica-will-soon-be-the-only-place-to-live-literally-58574.html

          Sunday 02 May 2004

          Antarctica is likely to be the world’s only habitable continent by the end of this century if global warming remains unchecked, the Government’s chief scientist, Professor Sir David King, said last week.

          He said the Earth was entering the “first hot period” for 60 million years, when there was no ice on the planet and “the rest of the globe could not sustain human life”. The warning – one of the starkest delivered by a top scientist – comes as ministers decide next week whether to weaken measures to cut the pollution that causes climate change, even though Tony Blair last week described the situation as “very, very critical indeed”.

          SEE LINK FOR REST

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  • #
    Philip

    Ian Plimer was on Tom Nelson’s Youtube yesterday. Another excellent presentation.

    Of note, he had a dig at atmospheric physicists, as the ones causing all the trouble, basically because of their limited outlook, that they don’t consider anything else outside their field and come up way short. Interesting. I’ve never heard it framed like that before. Usually they are thought of as all-knowing gods, untouchables, but Ian explains their flaws. He made mention that Richard Lindzen is about the only decent one among them.

    A great interview, well worth watching even if you know Ian’s talking points, because he is such a great communicator – which is rare among scientists – and he always adds a few new angles. In my opinion the best of them all, by far. A national treasure.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9NX9a2vyQE

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      Steve of Cornubia

      That was exactly my experience in a large, multi-disciplinary research organisation. At every meeting in which a problem or research proposal was presented, the various ‘experts’ around the room all did the same thing. The physicist believed the issue was physics. The biologist saw the problem as one of biology and the chemist would come up with a ‘solution’ using chemistry.

      Now imagine the room contains twenty or more disparate ‘experts’, all of whom believe they should head the project.

      I frequently said that Mondays should start with a meeting in which we all agreed what the week’s meeting schedule should look like. I lost the will to live.

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      ianl

      I’ve worked with many geologists and engineers, world wide, for over 40 years now, (I’m a geo).

      Of all of those, and many are very talented, only two ever had the gift of presenting complex geology in normal, understandable language as a fascinating set of stories. Ian Plimer is one, the other has unfortunately died. With Ian Plimer, none of the dense, double negative, impenetrable language so favoured by academics.

      Despite all the varied education, research and experience I’ve had, each of Ian Plimer’s articles or presentations always contains some aspect I’d under-considered. Genuinely interesting.

      He does make a singular point on general geological knowledge, though. Most people (and by most, he means 99% and I agree) know absolutely no geoscience, nor are they much interested. He is too polite to add the corollary – that ignorance does not stop pontification.

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      Gob

      Thanks for the link; Ian Plimer is a real and rare showman.

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    • #
      Bill Burrows

      Great podcast for both sceptics and climate change worriers to digest. Ian Plimer has a firm grip of the facts and presents them clearly and confidently. One minor slip was referring to sugarcane & maize (corn) as C3 plants (they follow the C4 photosynthetic pathway). Loved his concluding comment that Trump will pull the USA out of the Paris Agreement soon after January 20. As Plimer himself will be in Washington, DC & Florida at this time I think his knowledge is being drawn on by someone in very high places.

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  • #
    Skepticynic

    WATT A MESS

    Victoria faces mass blackouts and soaring power bills due to renewables push, bombshell report by energy expert warns


    The report by Professor Simshauser, chief executive of the Queensland government’s transmission network business Powerlink, a professor of economics at Griffith University and member of the Cambridge University Energy Policy Research Group, and co-authored with Associate Professor Joel Gilmore, highlighted “profound effects” anticipated in Victoria as the state ploughs ahead with its transition to ­renewable energy sources.

    The report cautioned that the state faced a severe risk of blackouts during colder months in autumn and winter by the 2030s, with ­renewable energy such as solar and wind underperforming when energy demand was at its highest.

    Data in a “sobering” chart ­revealed demand in Victoria would surge due to the electrification push – where, for example, some gas appliances were banned – resulting in it outweighing renewable supply by more than 30 per cent in some months.

    This would contribute to Victoria’s surging power costs from the “lowest to the highest” in Australia, it said. In July, last year the Australian Energy Market Operator quarterly ­report showed the average cost of wholesale electricity in Victoria from April to June reached $127/MWh, up $39 compared to the same quarter in 2023.

    Yet…

    A state government spokesman said: “Our record investments in renewable energy have meant that Victoria has had the lowest wholesale power prices in the country over the past two years … and AEMC projects the state’s prices will fall by 9 per cent over the 10-year outlook, remaining below the national average.”

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/victorias-power-costs-to-surge-from-the-lowest-to-the-highest-in-australia-according-to-report/news-story/541cf1c78e25af9d222ac05618185844

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    The astronomical cost of grid batteries is finally hitting home.

    Grid battery cost issue storm looms in Massachusetts
    By David Wojick
    https://www.cfact.org/2025/01/07/grid-battery-cost-issue-storm-looms-in-massachusetts/#

    The beginning:
    “Massachusetts just passed a law requiring the big utilities to buy a whopping 1,500 MW of batteries by this July. It should cost several billion dollars requiring immediate rate increases so it will be getting lots of attention. Net zero storage finally hitting the fan.

    The total battery buy is an incredible 5,000 MW with most of that bought in the next few years so the rate increases will keep coming. The law is a study in vagueness so there will be a lot of confusion along the way.

    The complex issues involved have been nicely outlined in two articles by Laurie Belsito at the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance. The first, written before the Bill passed, is titled “Proposed Battery Law Costs Billions and Does Nothing”. See it here:
    https://www.massfiscal.org/op-ed-the-actual-costs-legislature-climate-bill

    This article focuses on the cost of the entire 5,000 MW, saying this:
    “The amount of batteries is somewhat unclear. The Bill specifies that 5,000 Megawatts (MW) of batteries be bought but this is the discharge capacity, that is how fast the batteries can be emptied. The storage capacity is what counts and that is measured in Megawatt-hours (MWh). Specifying MW is like buying juice based on how fast it pours not how much the bottle holds.

    The Bill does include a range of storage capacities which bounds the cost somewhat. Most of the batteries are what is called mid-duration which means they can provide full discharge for from four to 10 hours. Almost all grid scale battery systems these days are four hour duration so for simplicity we will start by assuming the whole 5,000 MW buy is four hour batteries.

    This gives 20,000 MWh of storage. Battery systems today run around $500,000 per MWh. That gives a total cost of $10,000,000,000 or ten billion dollars which equals roughly 17% of the current state budget. If 10 hour batteries are purchased the cost jumps to $25,000,000,000 or twenty-five billion dollars. The Bill actually calls for a good bit of longer duration batteries as well which makes the cost even higher.”

    Ten billion, twenty-five billion, maybe more who knows? That is seriously vague and I doubt the Legislators who voted for this madness had any idea of these numbers.

    There is a lot more in the article that is well worth reading.”

    The second Belsito article analyzes the looming complexities of the utilities buying 1,500 MW in a rush. It is titled “Amidst Glaring Unknowns in New Energy Law, Rate Increases Definite” and is here:
    https://www.massfiscal.org/amidst_glaring_unknowns_in_new_energy_law_rate_increases_definite

    Lots more in my article. Please share it.

    Will big battery mania hit the wall in Massachusetts? Stay tuned.

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      Graeme4

      So that’s around A$800,000/MWh for the batteries. Wondering if that cost includes and ongoing maintenance costs over the battery’s short lifetime, or any of the other “commercial-in-confidence” costs relating to the battery suppliers being able to charge more for stored energy over the next 10 or more years.

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        DOC

        I understand these batteries can explode in devastating fashion. That presumably depends on the size of the storage. Is there any inbuilt mechanism that can control the rate at which those electrons can express themselves? But pertinent to the discussion is their location relative to residential and industrial sites, making one ask what about the cost of insurance imposed under such circumstances.

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    another ian

    FWIW – climate models update

    “Every once in a while, the narrative cracks, and a little ray of truth shines through. Of course, it’s hard to see the truth through the cracks, especially the whole truth, but at least you can see that the truth is there. It happened yesterday, when the Atlantic ran a curious weather science story headlined,

    “Climate Models Can’t Explain What’s Happening to Earth.” ”

    ( https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2025/01/climate-models-earth/681207/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email )

    More at

    https://open.substack.com/pub/coffeeandcovid/p/maple-leave-tuesday-january-7-2025?

    Including

    “In other words, as I have repeatedly said, models are nothing more than decorated guesses.”

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      Robert Swan

      another ian,
      Decorated guesses is a bit on the generous side.

      From the underlying paper, there’s this piece of word salad:

      In the global average, this warming has been accurately predicted by different generations of climate models (17). However, an overestimation of mean warming in some of the most recent CMIP6 models (commonly known as the “hot-model” problem) has sparked discussions about paying closer attention in multimodel contexts to weighting models by their skill in reproducing observed trends (18). From an extreme weather perspective, the large and unexpected margins by which recent regional-scale extremes have broken earlier records have raised questions about the degree to which climate models can provide adequate estimates of relations between global mean temperature changes and regional climate risks.

      My translation:

      For global average temperature, older climate models were pretty close. More recent models are all running hot.

      Recent figures suggest that mean temperature is a poor predictor of extreme weather.

      IOW, the models are bad guesses of a useless value.

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        Ronin

        Weather is chaotic, it does what it wants, models don’t do chaos, therefore GIGO.

        20

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        DOC

        ‘…useless value!’ But evidently the entire IPCC ‘science’ is based on developing such models and the propaganda is entirely based on what they spit out from the Supercomputers in which they run.

        My point: ‘Valueless’ yes. But the costs imposed by acceptance of the weird science of the IPCC on primarily Western First World democracies run into huge numbers of trillions of dollars. At the same time they destroy the organisation and functionality of those same economies that have so far enabled them to abandon their wealth and have created rapidly falling standards of living for their citizens.

        Concentration on the uselessness and valuelessness of the means by which we are led to our fateful precipice blinds the people to the real cost they are already paying in being politically forced into following the international demands of the IPCC+UN+New World Order elites. People are whipped into an inordinate hysterical fear of normal summer heat patterns described as proof of catastrophic warming that will burn up our great great great grandchildren in a hundred years. It camouflages the huge destructive forces being deliberately imposed on people NOW that are going unrecognised but driving purposes other than climate.

        This is what I believe Trump is going to rapidly terminate. I just hope that comes with a demand that the total climate science disgrace is forced open where everything must be publicly debatable
        and any climate action is only permitted on agreements with a high standard of acceptable proof.

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    Philip

    It’s astonishing to think we are actually in an ice age, just at a warmer part of it. So how will the earth survive when we finally leave the ice age? How will people survive?

    It’s the big argument the spooks have. That man has never existed in warmer climates. And I don’t mean the Minoan warming and these other slightly warmer periods which are clearly no problem. Real warmth, when the crocs can swim up to Norway. It does give me pause actually. How will we survive it? Better work it out because one day, probably not soon, it is going to happen. Nothing could be more certain.

    Thoughts?

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      Forrest Gardener

      That calls for some seriously long range planning Philip.

      Just off the top of my head I’d say the Norwegians will have to take a few pointers from Cairns and Darwin where crocs live now.

      And I’d be interested to see the basis for predictions about the Earth’s future climate even 1000 years from now.

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      David Maddison

      Our entire Civilisation has developed in the last 10,000 years of interglacial.

      We are due to end that in probably a few centuries. Civilisation will need a lot of energy to survive the forthcoming glaciation.

      Even before glaciation the climate will cool and agricultural output will diminish. China knows this which is why they are colonising tropical and temperate places like Africa. And buying land in Australia. They need it for food production.

      The woke countries like Australia that are not subject to glaciation but are shutting down their energy supplies won’t survive and will be invaded by non-woke countries like China that need the land.

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    another ian

    FWIW – “The country’s in the very best of hands, the best of hands”!

    “Massive shortage of troops’ – Revelations ADF outsourcing recruiting to Swiss firm”

    https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2025/01/massive-shortage-of-troops-revelations-adf-outsourcing-recruiting-to-swiss-firm.html

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      David Maddison

      It’s become a fully woke military. And there is extreme misandry and racism against white males who have almost no chance of promotion against women, “people of colour” and “others” due to DEI policies. The recruitment crisis is entirely expected. Our military and thus country is weak as a result and getting weaker.

      The same policies apply in civilian parts of Defence where its also almost impossible for white males to be promoted. I have a friend who worked there as a scientist who was explicitly told that as a white male he had no chance of promotion and that he should accept the redundancy package offered to get rid of him.

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        another ian

        DM

        FYI

        “R.V. Jones “Most Secret War”

        Around about 1930

        “T.C. Keeley was my tutor and in addition to physics he offered wisdom. He warned us that if another war broke out there would be a disastrous period for six months while those who had reached high positions on inadequate abilities in peacetime would have to be replaced”

        The way things have developed there won’t be 6 months grace now and ours will become a fully woken military if it gets involved with any crew that missed the “woke” furphy.

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          KP

          “had reached high positions on inadequate abilities in peacetime would have to be replaced””

          Yep- Putin fired some, retired some and sent other Generals to the front. Currently Russia has the world’s best army, as everyone else will have to go through that same stage before being able to engage in war with any success.

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    David Maddison

    Was this really a seriously considered logo for the Brisbane 2032 Summer Olympics?

    https://www.reddit.com/r/brisbane/comments/op11zz/official_logo/

    It features a bin chicken (Threskiornis molucca).

    As with anything with which the Left are involved, in this case grifting and bread and circuses for the masses, it’s hard to tell if this is a joke or not. The Left have become parodies of themselves.

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  • #
    another ian

    FWIW – Istapundit lead-in

    “THIS IS NOT A NEW THEORY: Ancient lead pollution may have lowered IQs across the Roman Empire: ‘To my knowledge, it’s the first large-scale pollution event from industrial activities.’

    Nowadays we have smartphones and TikTok.”

    https://instapundit.com/694582/#disqus_thread

    30

  • #
    David Maddison

    The Left keep telling us of “consensus science” and “settled science”. The most anti-science terms possible.

    Here’s another example of “consensus science” that was wrong.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ignaz_Semmelweis?wprov=sfla1

    Ignaz Philipp Semmelweis (German: [ˈɪɡnaːts ˈzɛml̩vaɪs]; Hungarian: Semmelweis Ignác Fülöp [ˈsɛmmɛlvɛjs ˈiɡnaːts ˈfyløp]; 1 July 1818 – 13 August 1865) was a Hungarian physician and scientist of German descent who was an early pioneer of antiseptic procedures and was described as the “saviour of mothers”. Postpartum infection, also known as puerperal fever or childbed fever, consists of any bacterial infection of the reproductive tract following birth and in the 19th century was common and often fatal. Semmelweis discovered that the incidence of infection could be drastically reduced by requiring healthcare workers in obstetrical clinics to disinfect their hands. In 1847, he proposed hand washing with chlorinated lime solutions at Vienna General Hospital’s First Obstetrical Clinic, where doctors’ wards had three times the mortality of midwives’ wards. The maternal mortality rate dropped from 18% to less than 2%, and he published a book of his findings, Etiology, Concept and Prophylaxis of Childbed Fever, in 1861.

    Despite his research, Semmelweis’s observations conflicted with the established scientific and medical opinions of the time and his ideas were rejected by the medical community. He could offer no theoretical explanation for his findings of reduced mortality due to hand-washing, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it. In 1865, the increasingly outspoken Semmelweis allegedly suffered a nervous breakdown and was committed to an asylum by his colleagues. In the asylum, he was beaten by the guards. He died 14 days later from a gangrenous wound on his right hand that may have been caused by the beating.

    His findings earned widespread acceptance only years after his death, when Louis Pasteur confirmed the germ theory, giving Semmelweis’ observations a theoretical explanation, and Joseph Lister, acting on Pasteur’s research, practised and operated using hygienic methods with great success.

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  • #

    APPROACHING THE TIPPING POINT IN ILLINOIS

    https://iowaclimate.org/2025/01/07/illinois-electricity-subsidies-mandates-inflation/#

    It is good to have figures from Illinois to compare with the situation in South East Australia where our installed coal capacity ran down from 29 to 22 GW since 2012, getting close to the base load which is near 20GW.

    We have no nuclear power, next to no gas and a little legacy hydro. The average wind and solar penetration is over 44% but of course on a night with little or no wind there is little or no RE and that will not substantially improve with five or 10 times as much capacity.

    We have just reached the point where nights with little or no wind will inevitably bring on a more or less serious power shortage.

    https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/

    In Illinois in 2013, 91 percent of the electricity used in the state was generated by nuclear (48%) and coal (43%). Renewable generation from wind and solar were less than 5 percent, and natural gas supplied only 3.4 percent.

    The mix is very different today. Coal’s output plummeted to only 15 percent, leaving a huge hole in Illinois’ generation capacity. To fill the breach, renewable generation has almost tripled to 13.3 percent on average [LOL] and natural gas now provides 16 percent of load.

    I really want to see the comparable figures for the rest of the country. The FERC Winter Energy Market and Electric Reliability Assessment only shows the deterioration over the last year. The picture over a decade would be really interesting.

    https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/Winter%20Assessment%202024-2025.pdf

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    Robert Swan

    Responding to another ian‘s comment above reminded me of a recent argument. Joanne had claimed that we needed much better climate models (for the benefit of e.g. farmers). I said that a perfect climate model would still be completely useless. What she was looking for was a long-term weather model.

    Climate has certainly drifted in meaning over the years. The drift has served the climatologists well. It’s pretty grim that, decades into the climate debate, we’re still so vague what the word means.

    Anyhow, following links while writing today’s comment, I hit this page, which seems well written (from a believer’s point of view of course). Here’s a snippet pertinent to the exchange with Jo:

    Climate models project the climate, not the weather. They cannot say that on October 24, 2050, it will rain in Seattle. They can say, however, that in 2050, average winter conditions in the Northwest are likely to be warmer than they are in the present day.

    Tends to bear out my position: that it will usually warmer (or wetter) in 25 years’ time doesn’t help the farmers deciding what to plant for this season.

    Climate is only useful for political players. I’m hopeful that this will be more widely accepted soon. Less optimistic about the BoM.

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    Skepticynic

    FBI Confirms the Email Sent to Podcast Came From Matthew Livelsberger

    Further to posts here about the Cybertruck bomber’s manifesto 4 days ago, the email Sam Shoemate received which was featured in the Shawn Ryan show has now been verified as definitely having been sent by Matthew Livelsberger although the FBI declined to comment on the matters raised in the email. Given the contents that’s understandable but disappointing.

    Link for those who missed the earlier posts:
    Shawn Ryan Show #155
    Sam Shoemate – Cybertruck Bomber Matt Livelsberger’s Email Reveals NEW Evidence
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xglaXVtQcis

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    DD

    Who can forget the comedic talents of Ronald Reagan:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5_bGko6yOw
    (2m 24s video)
    RR was California governor at the time — 1974. For context, I think the U-haul joke refers to the fact that a California election was upcoming and RR had already served the two-term limit, so he would be moving on.

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    Australian gas royalties v Qatar. Thank you John Howard and Martin Ferguson. Short and dumbfounding! We have found dumb.
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bsxf5qDiLPc

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    Graeme4

    Andrew Forrest is being sued by Exxon.This is going to be interesting.
    “Forrest named in ExxonMobil defamation action”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/forrest-named-in-exxonmobil-defamation-action/news-story/f4e00e789301e3d85e97c3d3ad0c706b
    Andrew Forrest and Fortescue plus Minderoo are mentioned in a lawsuit filed in Texas this week by Exxon, where Exxxon accused California A-G Rob Bonta, US environmental groups and Forrest’s Intergenerational Environment Justice Fund (IEJF) of defamation. The lawsuit says that Forrest enlisted Sierra Club, Surfrider, Heal the Bay, and San Francisco Baykeeper as his US proxies to launch lawsuits against ExxonMobil and its advanced plastic recycling ambitions.

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    OldOzzie

    The Global EV Calamity

    Blame the Obama era’s ‘permission structures’ behind a phony climate fix.

    One residue, which NOAA obviously participated in, was the permission structure behind today’s gathering boondoggle created by Obama-era mandated investment in electric vehicles.

    In his first two years, Joe Biden justified his giant increase in EV subsidies and mandates by citing the “existential risk” of global climate change. Then that argument was junked overnight. EVs became a “strategic” technology that must be protected from Chinese competition.

    Both arguments were nonsense, as I belabored here, yet were seamlessly echoed in the media in turn.

    Subsidizing green-energy consumption is simply to subsidize energy consumption, including fossil energy. EVs are “strategic” only for China, to reduce its reliance on imported oil in anticipation of military conflict with the U.S. For the rest of the world, including the U.S., electric cars are a consumer technology, albeit a fast-emerging and promising one. Sensibly, they’re also a technology that should have been left to consumers and carmakers to adapt and develop without distorting handouts and mandates.

    The result is finally in view: a colossal self-destruction of the Western auto industry, with Germany’s at the forefront.

    Volkswagen is in a panic about Chinese competition to the money-losing EVs that Berlin forces the company to sell. Germany’s export-led economy is in free fall. Its bellwether auto giant, VW, is pursuing its first-ever domestic factory closures and layoffs.

    Likewise, Ford CEO Jim Farley sees his company’s survival in the U.S. threatened by Chinese EVs given the tens of thousands of dollars Ford already loses on each of its government-mandated electric vehicles.

    The author of Germany’s auto mess, Angela Merkel, is now reviled as an unprincipled bandwagon grabber. Don’t kid yourself. The same reputational fate is coming for Messrs. Obama and Biden. Mr. Biden’s EV protectionism is America’s admission of defeat. The U.S. went from “Americans must buy EVs to save the planet” to “Americans must be prevented from buying cheap, high-quality Chinese EVs to preserve a government-created domestic boondoggle.”

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    another ian

    FWIW – another knowledge hole

    Willis E has a look at

    “I noticed that WUWT has a recent post about an interesting study that has identified the mystery huge volcanic eruption in 1831. Turns out that it comes from a volcano named Zavaritskii on an island in the Northwest Pacific between Japan and Russia.”

    Concludes

    “Both of these emergent phenomena, the daily appearance of sunlight-reflecting tropical cumulus cloud fields and cooling thunderstorms, work to oppose the cooling action of the volcanic stratospheric aerosols, and to prevent large swings in the global surface temperature.”

    First comment

    “Tom Halla
    January 7, 2025 10:09 am

    In brief, we don’t know what effect volcanic eruptions have on temperature, if any.”

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    another ian

    FWIW

    A third go expected?

    ““This is Not Normal” – LEAKED: Veterans Affair Insider Reveals HHS Memo Detailing “Presidential Inauguration Medical Personnel Support Deployment Request” ”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/01/this-is-not-normal-leaked-veterans-affair-insider/

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    another ian

    FWIW – another “magic” of the jabs

    “A NEW AND BIZARRE SIDE EFFECT OF THE JAB: Teen’s breasts grew to triple G-cup size following COVID vaccination: ‘Concerns not adequately addressed’.”

    https://instapundit.com/694813/#disqus_thread

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