Just another day of Wind turbine failure — 6GW in 16 hours
There was no cyclone, no storm, no national disaster, but our national infrastructure collapsed just the same. Blame a high pressure cell.
Last week TonyFromOz noticed that the output from all 79 industrial wind plants in Australia disappeared overnight from 6GW to just 0.4GW. Imagine if an entire state of coal plants failed in the space of 16 hours and nobody cared?
Wind plants fail all the time and wreak havoc on the grid. It’s just “business as usual” or rather “subsidies as usual”. The rainbow list of acronyms below the graph shows every single wind plant in five states of Australia was accounted for in this dismal tally.
Wind turbine failure: TonyFromOZ
Billions of dollars rests on whether we can stop high pressure cells forming near Adelaide…
As Tony points out, the more wind towers we build, the worse this mayhem will be. Weather comes and weather goes but when the doldrums hit, it wipes out all 79 industrial plants together. Only wind plants built outside the high pressure cell could smooth out this failure. Offshore wind farms would have failed at the same time as onshore ones too unless they were built halfway to New Zealand. To put that task in perspective, most offshore windfarms in the UK are built within 40km of the coast, but New Zealand is 4,000 kilometers away. Even floating windplants are built in 120m of water, but the Tasman Sea is 5,000 m deep.
Normal weather causes wind turbine weather mayhem on the NEM
The whole grid in the Australian NEM (National Energy Market) is roughly a 22GW enterprise, so more than a quarter of the total generation came and went — another quarter had to sit by and twiddle its thumbs waiting to quietly take over. No wonder Australian electricity is so expensive now. We pay unreliable generators to produce sacred green electrons and then pay another set of reliable generators to sit around and wait for when they will be needed. Who thought this would be cheaper — communists, maybe.
Indeed, if we include solar power variation, it’s even worse.
Australian Unreliable Renewables fell from 62% to 4% of national energy generation in 18 hours
Total renewable energy generation from all forms of solar and wind reached a peak at lunchtime Weds 3rd of May of 16.7 GW of generation. By 6am the next day that had fallen to 0.9GW. In a total system with an average of about 22GW of generation nearly 16 gigawatts was lost in 18 hours. Roughly 60% of total national generation failed and the system coped, but backing up this grid to cater for this huge failure comes at a massive cost.
Source Anero.id
That’s 95% of peak renewables output lost in less than a day.
As TonyfromOz points out, this is like a whole state fleet of coal plants failing at once
Imagine one of our largest states lost their entire coal fleet overnight?
For some perspective, ALL of the coal fired power in Victoria have a Nameplate of 4960MW, for three power plants with 10 Units, and that’s lower than the loss of power from ALL of these wind plants. If something like that failed (all 10 Units of the coal fired power in that State of Victoria) the State would be totally blacked out.
The same would apply for the State of New South Wales, where the total Nameplate for all of its coal fired plants is now 6149MW from four power plants with 12 Units (and that total is now lower since the recent closure of the Liddell plant, removing 2000MW for that coal fired total Nameplate for that State), and if all those 12 Units shut down, then that State would also be blacked out.
These are the two most populous States in Australia, and if something like that happened, it would be quite literally catastrophic, and it would be screamed about in the media (when the power did come back on) about the absolute and stupendous unreliability of coal fired power.
Luckily, in this case, with wind generation, there were many natural gas fired plants, and hydro power plants to take up the slack of such an immense loss of power, and because of that, and the fact that this is renewable power, now the sacred cow of the media, no one even knew, and it was not reported, huh, not that anyone even knew of this correlation in the first place.
The media silence on this is a lie by omission, but it’s still a lie, still dishonest, and we need to start protesting outside the ABC and SBS headquarters to draw attention to this deliberate deceit to hide the failures of their sacred totem and co-dependent industries. Those who depend on the government lie for each other all the time. It’s no accident.
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PS: For those who don’t know Anton Lang (TonyfromOz) lost his wife of 42 years just a few weeks ago. You can read his accolades to Barbara Lang and share your commiserations. A remarkable marriage.
Thank you Jo for not calling them ‘Wind Farms, I hate the analogy that these ugly power towers are farms that ‘harvest’.
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Exactly. What grows on a wind farm?
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Simple answer & it’s all encompassing!
TROUBLE !!!
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“Jo Nova
….. What grows on a wind farm?“….
🤔🤔….Errr .?….. Profits ?? 😲
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And SUBSIDIES
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Money grows on wind farms and lots of it .
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See #1.1.3
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Subsidies…
Reminds me of the old 1-liner about the council worker falling off his shovel, and compensation set in.
Useless to start with, then throw money at it.
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Subsidies. They harvest subsidies.
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fewer plants do because in Germany the soil is drying out underneath turbines
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Germany is leading the world in destroying their own standard of living. The country will be like California ( a third world slum ) by the time the Left have finished with it. https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/05/08/green-bailout-german-govt-looks-to-subsidise-up-to-80-per-cent-of-energy-costs-for-industry/
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Taxpayer’s money
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What grows on wind farms? Green indulgences.
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Perhaps “windbaggeries” might offer more applicable analogies.
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I have much appreciated Anton and his very informative and easy to understand articles on the energy fiasco. I love the way he dumbs it down in such a way that myself and the average bloke in the street can understand.
I wish Anton and his family all the best after the sad passing of his wife.
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I’m very sorry that Tony lost his wife and wish him all the best for the future.
But I’m afraid we’re going to suffer massive blackouts in the coming years if we persist with the TOXIC W & S disasters.
Very few people understand the risk we’re taking by relying on these stupid UNRELIABLE generators but when the crap really hits the fan the cost will be devastating.
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“…when the crap really hits the fan…”
But that is why “they” are being successful at the moment. Using all their educated stupid logic they realise that the fan will not be working (no power) when the crap is offered up so no problem.
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re – “we need to start protesting outside the ABC and SBS headquarters “:-
We need to start protesting outside the ABC and SBS headquarters.
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The ABC & the rest of the media will broadcast that news!!
Of course no MSM broadcasts news of monumental power generation failures.
It’s just not “ done “. It’s not permitted!! It’s “ outside of the official narrative “
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Who will be paying for the renewal of these wind turbines (and the millions of solar panels) as they reach the end of their short life cycles?
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Britain’s fleet of 11,000 metered subsidy harvesters rated at 27GW dropped 16GW – but over 42 hours – 27th/28th Nove last year.
https://i.postimg.cc/Fz0c1MzY/Wind-generation-dropped-by-16-GW-in-42-hrs-Lull-Gridwatch.jpg
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I’m all up for the competition Joe Public. Which nation really deserves the Renewable Crash Test Dummy Award?
By all means, toss your hat in. We don’t mind if you win.
If high pressure cells here cover 7 million square kilometers and wipe out nearly our entire wind turbine fleet, they surely must be bad news for the UK wind fleet?
How low do those capacity figures in the UK go? And what proportion of the total UK demand is supplied by unreliables?
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Jo
As more unreliables are built so grown up back up power stations are retired here in the UK. There are big plans to develop unreliables so the safety margin that would allow conventional power stations to provide back up to compensate for a major dip in unreliables has probably been reached.
The next crucial test will be next winter as the hoarding of gas and the reprieve for our remaining coal plants due to the Ukraine war will come to an end.
It is common for us to get one or two periods in a winter when high pressure sits over us. The results are often days of cold cloudy calm weather. So just when power is most needed, cold winter nights especially, is just the time when solar and wind stop operating.
The amount of back up in the form of batteries for a 24/7 society of 67 million people is so great that it s not feasible to supply it in the form of batteries. We have little availability of pumped storage systems due to our topography.
So sooner or mater there will be massive widespread long lasting power cuts made worse by the drive to get everyone to invest in electric vehicles and heat pumps.
Quite why the govt can’t see this disaster coming down the lne eludes me
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“Quite why the govt can’t see this disaster coming down the l(i)ne eludes me”
Possible explanations …
They are dumb.
They are smart and intend disaster.
They have been blinded by zealotry.
I suspect a threesome.
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” Quite why the govt can’t see this disaster coming down the line eludes me.”
‘Cos they are looking in the opposite direction.
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It’s impossible not to know. Maybe politicians are too stupid to know or understand but surely some of their “advisors” must know. It has to be part of an intentional plan to bring about the destruction of Western Civilisation.
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I’m late to this party, but let me assure you, it’s just bog standard political incompetence.
They’re not smart enough to organize a chook yard with two gates, let alone “an intentional plan to bring about the destruction of Western Civilisation”.
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Hi Jo.
1. “How low do those capacity figures in the UK go?”
In 2021, *Gt Britain* (i.e. England + Scotland + Wales) had an average of approx 26GW Metered Wind Capacity. Their total minimum generation was 0.035GW (11:30 22/7/21) and maximum gen was 14.286GW (15:25 21/5/21)
https://i.postimg.cc/Njg2zyHN/Gridwatch-2021-Half-hourly-GB-Wind-Generation.jpg
We can suffer week-long lulls when our entire fleet generates at <10% capacity factor in January, our month of greatest electricity demand. (And 13GW of solar generates at just 4% CF!)
[I don't have separate info on Northern Ireland's separate & independent grid]
2. "And what proportion of the total UK demand is supplied by unreliables?"
Our (oxymoronically named) Dept for Energy Security and Net Zero goes out of its way to obfuscate even simple comparisons, however, sleuths can interrogate its "Energy Trends – UK, October to December 2022 and 2022" and discover renewables (provisionally) generated 41.4% of *UK* electricity i.e. 134.85TWh out of 325.99TWh in 2022. [Table ET 5.1]
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1147240/Energy_Trends_March_2023.pdf
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Thanks Joe,
We are lucky to have Andrew Miskelly publishing Anero.id data here in Australia where we can mouseover the highs and low and get those details that the government doesn’t want to share.
I suspect the Australian situation is more extreme in terms of capacity and volatility, but the British situation is more extreme in terms of costs and coldness.
Here in Oz last week renewables went from supplying 68% of total energy down to 4% in one 24 hour period. Solar causes enormous spikes here. The volatility here is unreal.
One post I did last year shows that despite the massive area, and huge number of wind turbines, our monthly minimum generation from wind is still often below 5% and sometimes as low as 2% of total wind power capacity. That graph there thanks to WattClarity, again, not thanks to one of the government agencies paid millions to advise Australians.
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Where is Mr. Stokes to explain how close we are to net zero?
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Net zero electricity? Closer than we should be.
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I don’t think Nick posts here.
Actually, it would be interesting to apply the analysis he used on USA48 W&S overbuild vs storage to Australian data. Australia seem more susceptible to low wind periods.
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Mr. cocky: He most assuredly does, mostly on AU energy issues. I wouldn’t do this if I didn’t expect him to read it!
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I hope so, Paul.
Nick’s work with the USA48 data was quite nice, so it would be good to see the result with Australian hourly data.
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For years now, I have greatly appreciated Tony’s factual and plainly presented contributions that continue to show the insane folly of governmental policy pursuit of renewables as the only source of future energy supply for our country.
Tony, I offer my condolences at this time of your monumental loss from the passing of your wife.
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Dunkelflaute. It’s not a problem. Push ahead. Just have two generation systems.
One for when the wind blows and the sun shines and does not generate CO2. They have to be the same capacity. And the first one has to be replaced completely every twenty years. And one of them is a complete waste of money.
You see CO2 causes Global Warming which is very bad. And that causes hot days in Dhaka. Plus the occasional drought in Australia in between floods. CO2 is almost as bad as NO2 caused by growing food. But the worst is H2O which kills hundreds of thousands of people a year, either with too much or not enough. All are industrial pollution.
And those 5.5 billion people who cannot afford very expensive energy or food will appreciate being told to freeze, boil or starve. You know they will. It’s for their own good.
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And the other solution is for families to stay home and eat insects. The government will organize the production and transport of insects. Children will be trained at school to find delicious insects. Dried like dung, they also will provide heating and power for iPhones.
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No doubt the owners were paid for failing to produce energy and don’t let on that they require grid power to keep their stalled machinery from seizing up!
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Such is the illusion of pixie power.
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Here’s an idea:
Why not replace expensive, random, unreliable wind and other power sources with a constant, predictable, low cost power source, just like they started to do over 300 years ago in 1712 when Thomas Newcomen produced the first commercially successful steam engine?
?????
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David,
You are such a spoilsport!
It’s much more fun burning all that coal, and a lot of diesel, and to turn it into solar panels, wind turbines and “grid-scale” batteries, then make squillions selling them to those stupid Australians so that they can wreck their grid.
Seriously, Tom Quirk and I wrote scholarly articles warning of this very outcome over 10 years ago.
We, and the indefatigable Anton have been banging on about it ever since. The policymakers continue to ignore us.
Meanwhile, there’s another big high pressure system drifting over eastern Australia … .
As we said way back then, this pattern is a fairly frequent occurrence at this time of the year.
Thanks to Anton for your persistence in showing up the foolishness of the renewables’ nonsense and condolences on your loss of your lovely Barbara.
Well written, Jo, as always,
Paul Miskelly
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Please send this report to all the major media outlets, and State and Federal politicians, and monitor the silence.
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If they did bother to report it, they would blame “climate change”(TM) for the lack of wind.
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The “doldrums” are a well known phenomenon, the reason we are not still using sailing ships and why graziers relying on windmills carry a supply of petrol powered pumpjacks to fit to windmill sites in the absence of wind.
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So, are there ANY “forensic accountants” following the money? Especially the “spillage”?
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How reliant is the grid now upon routine load shedding of the 950MW consumed by the Tomago Aluminium Smelter?
And even with massive subsidies, that can’t remain a viable business for long. Sooner or later, they will close down and the 950MW it uses will be permanently available to the grid. Then more real generators (i.e. coal or gas) will be closed and that 950MW will disappear as well.
I think the only reason the Australian grid hasn’t already gone black in a major (multi-day) way is because so much power has been liberated due to the closure of industry plus domestic consumers are choosing to be too cold or too hot because they can’t afford some of the world’s most expensive electricity (when it used to be among the cheapest).
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o forget the 500 MW consumed by the Portland Smelter, heavily subsidised by the Government.
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On a related topic, has anyone seen the campaign from the Vicdanistani Government to service your rooftop solar panels every two years so they don’t burn your house down?
https://www.esv.vic.gov.au/about-us/media-centre/campaigns/show-your-solar-some-love-solar-safety
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And the cost of each service is – ?
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AKA government job creation program
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Which Australian politician was it that first allowed random (non-dispatchable) generators to connect to a properly designed power grid? Was it the pretend conservative Howard?
Yet another reason why politicians shouldn’t be allowed to make engineering decisions.
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A very important point David. Mr Conservative and broad church Howard was a disaster for conservatives. He was the one who deprived many farmers of control of their own property by giving the likes of Bob Carr free rein to introduce draconian native vegetation laws. We are still recovering and some never will. In Queensland a farmer is fined $100 k for cutting forage from his feed trees, Kurrajong or Mulga for his hungry cattle. The trees will survive and regrow. That was a direct consequence of John Howard’s acquiescence to the UN’s Kyoto protocol. He also made honest gun owners criminals but failed to keep guns out of the hands of real criminals. Then there was his capitulation to the green movement by introducing the renewable target and mandating use of wind. Howard did introduce the GST and that was good but the states failed to dump all their taxes as promised. Costello should have been given the top job sooner.
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Well said Lawrie.
Another bad thing Howard did, of many, was to give much of our gas supply to the Chicomms on a bizarre 30 year contract with no provision for market price or inflation. To this day the Chicomms are getting the world’s cheapest gas thanks to Howard, while Australians freeze in winter.
https://amp.smh.com.au/opinion/how-australia-blew-its-future-gas-supplies-20170928-gyqg0f.html
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David Maddison and Lawrie,
Agree about the gas, but Bob Carr (etc.) didn’t need “free rein” from the Feds; it’s their call anyway. I suppose Howard might have stepped in, like Fraser did with the Franklin River, but it’s better if the Feds butt out.
Rather than get into technicalities of who allowed random generators on the grid, let’s ask who thought AEMO was a good idea. The states already had arrangements with their neighbours and it worked well. Raising it to the federal level added no value other than extending the promotion ladder for bureaucrats and giving state politicians something to point at and say “not my fault”.
Abolish AEMO and the silly NEM, let the buck stop with each premier and they’ll have a reason to get it fixed.
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And Coal fired generation reached another record share of the market- 74.2%. Without Liddell.
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It’s interesting to look at the CSIRO’s latest energy storage report and realise that, in the 197 pages of the report, they cannot offer any viable solution to the problem of long-term storage required to backup renewables during these long Dunkelflautes. In fact, the Report makes NO attempt to implement any calculations as to how much storage would be required to support the NEM during these Dunkelflautes.
Also I have never seen any technical document that supports Bowen’s contention that Australia will have 82% of energy from renewables by 2030. Not one. Can anybody enlighten me as to an actual tech doc that explains the reasoning behind this belief?
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I have used Dunkleflautes too as there is so much talk out of Germany. But I probably prefer the term Wind Drought. You can get a month of it in Europe.
And in summer in Adelaide when there is not a breath of wind for a week in mid summer and the gulf is like a lake. But at least the Government has their own diesel generators at Elizabeth so they can collect taxes in the cool of midday.
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Yes, on clarity, but “Dunkelflaute” has an advantage too: the Germans have felt the need to coin a term for it. Tells people it’s a known problem.
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The calculations are quite simple. It’s quite remarkable and alarming that the CSIRO were unable to do them.
Here, I’ll save the taxpayer a few tens of millions of dollars on another useless CSIRO report.
The methodology for such calculations can be adduced from the discussion in the link below for powering the United States on unreliables. Just adjust the inputs to be relevant for Australia. No need for a highly overpaid CSIRO “scientist”, a high school student ought to be able to do it (or at least one that actually studies maths and science rather than some woke gender nonsense).
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/11/pump-up-the-storage/
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It’s quite remarkable and alarming that the CSIRO were UNWILLING to do the calculations.
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Graeme, I am absolutely certain that Bowen just believes that this is possible, either because, well, he just believes it or that he has been told it’s possible and he, well, just believes it.
Look at his eyes when he is talking about intermittent wind and solar and as he is waving his hands around, He looks like one of those old times evangelists, with that wild look on his eyes as he calls down heavenly mana on this sinful, carbon producing, world.
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With Albo and Bobo in charge of our power plants, we are in for a very rough ride.
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Never forget that we’re wrecking our electricity grids and weakening our defences, because our so called leaders and so called scientists BELIEVE we’re facing an EXISTENTIAL THREAT or CRISIS.
In fact or “co2 Coalition facts” ( see link below) we’re living in the most BENIGN climate in Human history and the last 200+ years is about 0.1% of fully evolved Human existence. That’s about the last 200 K to 300 K years. Check it out.
Just look up the data for yourselves and marvel at our Human flourishing since 1800 ( co2 about 280 ppm) and certainly since 1950, when co2 levels were about 310 ppm.
If you really want the FACTs here’s a long list to read and THINK about and try to UNDERSTAND.
https://co2coalition.org/facts/
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My eternal point is that CO2 is provably not man made. And whatever happens to temperature, plant life, sea level, it has nothing to do with fossil fuel. CO2 is in rapid equilibrium. Almost all is in the ocean and highly soluble new CO2 vanishes fast.
Some CO2 is radioactive. And the level is constant. Old plants lose this radioactivity completely so fossil fuel is not radioactive. If fossil fuel was really 33% of CO2 the radioactivity would drop 33%. It hasn’t. In 1958 radioactivity had dropped only 2% so fossil fuel CO2 in 1958 was 2.0+/-0.15%. Today it is 3.0%.
So humans cannot affect CO2, no matter how much fossil fuel we burn. It has always been a made up story as if that is not obvious after 35 years of warnings of the Rapture.
Because nothing we have done in 250 years has affected CO2 levels. Carbon credits, sequestration, carbon taxes, electric cars, trucks and planes are a complete crock. There isn’t a real problem except massive greed and a quest political power by Greens. It’s a simply way invented by the UN to justify its greedy existence with the destruction of Western Democracies. So is mass migration.
And China never gets criticized for output of 58% of all CO2 and the biggest military buildup in world history. Let alone releasing the world’s first bioweapon. Accidentally. And no one says anything, protected by their unqualified evil puppet Tedros Adhonom in the WHO.
The UN and EU and China are working together to create a single world Fascist government. China moved from Communist under Mao, which didn’t work, to Fascist in league with big business. And they are working furiously right now with their friends in the US to steal the next US election. Biden and Harris and McConnell and Trudeau are just puppets.
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$50 Trillion For What? Kennedy Dumbfounds Biden Climate Peddler In Fiery Exchange Over ‘Carbon Neutrality’
Biden Deputy Secretary of Energy David Turk highlighted the absurdity of the climate grift this week during a Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing, when Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) couldn’t get a straight answer out of him over the cost of going ‘carbon neutral.’
In a tense exchange, Kennedy repeatedly attempted to get Turk to give a straightforward answer to just how much American taxpayers will have to pay to achieve the Biden administration’s goal of reaching US carbon neutrality by 2050.
When Kennedy asked whether some of the “experts” Turk referred to earlier were correct in a $50 trillion estimate, Turk nodded his head, and said “It’s gonna cost trillions of dollars, there’s no doubt about it.”
“If we spend $50 trillion to become carbon neutral by 2050 in the United States of America, how much is that going to reduce world temperatures?” Kennedy replied. The conversation continued (transcription via the Daily Caller)
Turk: “So, every country around the world needs to get its act together. Our emissions are about 13% of global emissions right now…”
Kennedy: “Yeah, but if you could answer my question. If we spend $50 trillion to become carbon neutral in the U.S. by 2050, you’re the Deputy Secretary of Energy, give me your estimate of how much that is going to reduce world temperatures.”
Turk: “So, first of all, it’s a net cost. It’s what, um, benefits we’re having from getting our act together and reducing all of those costs and climate benefits…”
Kennedy: “Let me ask you. Maybe I’m not being clear. If we spend $50 trillion to become carbon neutral by 2050 in the United States of America, how much is that going to reduce world temperatures?”
Turk: “This is a global problem, so we need to reduce our emissions and we need to do everything to, uh…”
Kennedy: “How much of we do our part is it going to reduce global temperatures?”
Turk: “So, we’re 13% of global emissions…”
Kennedy: “You don’t know, do you? You don’t know, do you?”
A fully flabbergasted Turk then says “In my heart of hearts, there is no way the world gets its act together on climate change unless the U.S. leads.”
Watch (with full exchange here):
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Comedy gold.
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Comedy? It’s high farce. Unbelievable nonsense. Frightening.
It is beyond a joke when the Under Secretary for Energy makes it clear that unless the whole world goes carbon neutral, an expense of $50Trillion is a waste of money. And he did not even quote an expense or a change in temperature! So it may be much more as he did not quibble. Despite the fact that it is his job to know. So no facts. Just a warning that unless America spends every single cent on Nett Zero and even then, the world is doomed?
This is as much as the GDP of the top ten biggest economies in the world, starting with the US and China.
Country GDP
USA $20
China $12
Japan $5
Germany $3.5
India $2.6
UK $2.6
France $2.6
Brazil $2
Italy $2
Canada $1.6
Clearly the Under Secretary for Energy does not see his job is under threat.
He is proposing putting man on the sun. It may seem impossible but they will launch him at night.
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And as he states repeatedly, this is just the US cost for 13% of ’emissions’ and useless unless the other 87% of the planet does the same.
So he has estimated the cost of world Nett Zero by 2050 as at least $400Trillion in 27 years or there is no point.
That’s world GDP until 2050 directed entirely to Nett Zero?
And no one has actually demonstrated any benefit? Where is the devastation from the last 27 years? Why is the next 27 years such an existential crisis for all humanity? This is a fraction of a degree in average temperature, although he will not be drawn on that either! What is the problem? And how much difference will it make to anyone? Where?
This man is still employed? Why?
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I cannot believe the Under Secretary for Energy shirtfronted a US senator with absolute nonsense, refusing to answer the simplest question or give any logic at all. And the senator was ‘disappointed’? Absolutely brazen effrontery. It means the Biden administration is not answerable to anyone. No one will be fired for refusing to answer a reasonable question.
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I have been looking at convection in the atmosphere. I did a little experiment to determine the relative important of convection to radiation heat transfer at ground level. My answer was more than 200 times:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNhTZwC6v5kTo8cmrI?e=3tFPwE
So convective power that manifests itself at ground level as wind is what matters for global temperature because that is how heat gets transported from the tropical oceans to the higher latitude land where most people live. At altitude, wind power can reach 200,000W/m^2. A thousand times higher than OLR across an altitude up to about 14,000m covering the entire area of the globe.
So my point:
But wind turbines are terra forming by robbing convective/advective power from near surface winds. So they will change local climate by “stilling” air flows. That means less atmospheric water making it to land and eventually increased desertification. Large coastal arrays will dramatically transform the onshore land downwind of them as the turbines rob wind energy.
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Nice work Rick but you may wish to clarify whether the bulbs you used had a vacuum or as most incandescent bulbs today (if you can get them) they had an inert gas such as argon at 0.7 atm. I think the results are still relevant but need this clarification.
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It really does not matter if there is vacuum or gas. It is the glass that prevents the convective heat loss. The same reason a greenhouse gets warm. The CO2 inside the greenhouse does not increase the temperature. It is the dramatic reduction in heat loss due to preventing convective transfer.
The globes I tested were vacuum globes. The particles from cutting were forced inside as soon as the glass was punctured. Once punctured, It was quite brittle and mostly cracked rather than cut.
The experiment confirmed that there is next to no long wave radiation at ground level.
Anyone who brings up the notion of “back radiation” cancelling the “outgoing radiation” has to realise the “back convection” is orders of magnitude higher as well. The notion of “back convection” is just as silly.
As far as long wave radiation is concerned, the air at ground level is not much more transparent than rock. And I expect it would be hard to sustain an argument that a lump of rock has forward and back radiation cancelling each other.
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BTW facebook is still trying to con people, but it’s great to see that the clever sceptics are fighting back.
The facts are that Antarctica hasn’t warmed since 1950 ( see included link to study) and the Peninsula has actually cooled since the late 1990s.
See the 2016 Turner BAS study I’ve linked to before.
The now cooling Antarctic peninsula also has a row of undersea volcanoes to further complicate matters.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2023/05/06/facebook-censoring-the-inconvenient-truth-about-antarctic-temperatures/
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BTW the co2 Coalition are asking you to take their quiz and test your Climate IQ.
I tried and easily scored 100% and if I can do it then most of Jo’s bloggers should also pass their test.
Just remember to THINK about the REAL WORLD and NOT BELIEVE in their silly FANTASY planet. Too easy.
https://co2coalition.org/quiz/polar-bear-populations-are-in-decline/
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My biggest worry is that with more and more asynchronous power being connected to the system, and the reduction in reliable (and stabilising) coal/gas synchronous generation, how long before we get a complete grid down situation? Does the increased fraction of asynchronous power make it more likely for a cascading failure of the grid if some event occurs that takes it down? If the power went out to such a high level, how easy would we get it back? Many questions….I’m not sure the answers are going to be very comforting.
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Already happened in South Australia in 2017. Big storm, powerlines down, interconnector to Victoria tripped and the whole state went dark. Because they didn’t have enough synchronous backup, the recovery took days.
30
Yes:
we can discuss the power fluctuations until we go blue in the face, and then jump to the inevitable “early retirement” of these environmental catastrophes just before our societies worldwide, collapse into a writhing angry morass of human misery.
But:
We are avoiding the question of Why these things are being imposed and accepted when no engineer in their right mind would let them get past the drawing board.
The Hunter, no not O’Biden Jr, had two functional aluminium smelters until politicians decided that people are better off on the dole. There’s still one left but it’s hanging by a thread.
Do politicians and Green Activists really want to destroy the world for their families, children and grandchildren?
That’s what’s happening.
The only observations that seems to fit here, is that actors like the O’Bidens and Turnbulls are deriving some instant gratification from the process, whether that’s physical Or financial is irrelevant China seems capable of both.
This is Nuts, and it must be confronted.
The engineering reality is indisputable and this suggests that we are at war, and so few people realize it.
Up the Elites!
131
“Do politicians and Green Activists really want to destroy the world”
They don’t care. It’s all about political power. Supported by Lenin’s useful idiots.
Is the world a better place after the removal of the Shah in Iran? Was the world a better place when Mussolini made the trains run on time? Was the world a better place when Hitler put Germany on a war economy? The future belonged to them.
And was Russia a better place under Lenin and Stalin?
Whatever the fear being pushed, it is always fake. At present it is Global Warming and Putin. It should be President Xi. Or have we forgotten his viral weapon launched at the Military games in Wuhan, November 2019. Fully supported by his stooge in the WHO and his friends in the Democrats, from Pelosi to Biden to McConnell. Trump was not ‘Xenophobic’ in slamming the doors. He was just too late thanks to the UN and the Democrats.
The communist mayor of Florence declared hug a Chinese day as the planes landed from Wuhan. Why?
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What better example of how we are being imposed upon than the HugeStuge “running” the WHO. Tawdry Anhydros, sock puppet extraordinaire.
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But let’s not get too down about things, Fed Laba is going to give us a budget surplus.
At the moment they aren’t sure how they’ll do it but it’s either burrow from China or devalue the Aussie Dolla.
Maybe a mix of the two.
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But they are going to increase wages and reduce inflation????
Where and how will business get the money to pay the higher wages?
The budget is going to have a surplus!!!
Remember it is only a plan???
If this government did my household budget I’d expect misunderstandings.
The RBA should know that competiton determines top price with supply and demands influence.
Lowest prices are subject to costs and wages direct and indirect (your raw materials and services main cost is wages).
20
International finance has worked like this for a long time.
For businesses, they just increase the prices of goods sold locally.
Workers can then get that back as higher wages, everyone happy, until you go overseas where AUD$1,000 will buy you a nice cup of coffee.
It’s given the wokish name of Quantitative Easing.
Translated into English,
it’s Government Corruption.
20
Actually they are awash in coal and iron ore cash. Plus a new tax on our biggest two industries. Reminiscent of Japan trade just before WWII and pig iron Bob.
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TdeF,
I was in Persia a few months before the Shah was deposed.
FWIW, nothing I can see became better except zealotry.
Geoff S
80
Worth thinking about, the late Canadian Billionaire, Maurice Strong, a former UN Official and said to have been the architect of climate hoax and warming, illegally pumped water for bottling from under a property in his home country Canada and was wanted by the Canadian Environmental Protection Agency. He successfully sought asylum in Communist China where he later died.
His cousin had been a girlfriend to Chairman Mao Zedong, author of the Little Red Book and of course a Communist.
Does this information help to complete the puzzle, climate politics, redistribution of developed nation’s wealth, UN based agreements and treaties like 1975 Lima Protocol agreeing to transfer manufacturing industry to developing nations identified by the UN, like China? And the fascination the left side of politics has with the Chinese Communist Party? Recently Bolt Report interviewed a guest and Andrew Bolt discussed with him the support the ALP has been receiving from the CCP here in Australia to swing Chinese speaking voters to vote for Labor at elections using Chinese newspapers, social media and other communication methods.
Then include in the long list of evidence for consideration the transition to mostly Made in China wind turbines and solar systems.
Is globalism based on changing the free enterprise, free market “capitalist” system to a CCP controlled and managed model? UN Official Christiana Figureres said it was during an address she gave in October 2015 just before the UN IPCC Paris Climate Conference.
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“no engineer in their right mind would let them get past the drawing board…. Unfortunately there are plenty who sign off on this madness. Just have a look at Engineers Australia – full of climate doomsdayers who have drunk the koolaid.
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“In their right mind” , obviously they’ve been bought with a shower of gifts and pleasures that would even make Hunter blush.
🙂
50
“In their right mind”.
What mind? I have been told that only one in forty of the population has the mental ability to initiate new thinking.
I had already decided that the proportion of the population that can successfully consider a problem with more than one variable in it is less than 10%, and maybe as low as 1%. So I was ready to grab that 2.5% and run with it.
That means that 97.5% of the population depends on the 2.5% to do their thinking. This is the field we have to work in. How many of that 97.5% are ticketed scholars? What proportion of ticketed scholars are in the 2.5%?
I have no doubt that many of the ticketed scholars promoting the AGW scam honestly believe it to be sound. To turn their thinking around it is necessary to make them understand that the academies that ticketed them are not up to scratch.
At the present time our education system is copping enough bad press to make this possible.
30
“This is Nuts, and it must be confronted.
The engineering reality is indisputable and this suggests that we are at war, and so few people realize it.”
Who will lead the way in confronting this failed experiment? How long can we wait?
40
“no engineer in their right mind would …” – A recent excellent article (sorry it would take time I don’t have to find the link) argued that engineers no longer work on system reliability. They only work on compliance with reliability regulations. That’s why the problems keep building up and no-one is fixing them.
00
Our Grand Wizard Bowen would have us believe that the answer to this failure of wind generation is to build more of them
Doubling down until you win is an addicts solution
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Why doesn’t anyone measure how effective 340,000 giant windmills have been so far? Because they don’t work! And not just because they are very expensive and short term.
In Climate Science the only thing which which matters is the amount of CO2 in the air. And it hasn’t shown any change whatsoever.
So politicians punish ’emissions’ because they reason that reducing ’emissions’ will stop the growth of CO2. Which is untouched.
Instead they push windmills and shutting down Western economies and printing money and boosting inflation. And the cash flows to China like a river for more windmills and solar panels and so much more. But CO2 is totally unaffected by any of this, even the total shutdown personal transport for a year of the Chinese pandemic. So why change to electric cars? It’s all fake.
140
I read the book authored by Robert Bryce years ago- “Smaller, faster, lighter, denser, cheaper”. The number one rule that Bryce wrote about with intermittent power like solar and wind is that for every 1 MW produced by those “thin” power sources you still need 1 MW of reliable backup. It’s that simple. If you don’t have nuclear or enormous amounts of dependable hydro power then that backup comes from gas and coal. Its ever more critical when all the intermittents are largely concentrated in the one geographical area. So, that’s Australia. But, of course, we really didn’t need wind power anyway because Australia should have just stuck with coal and gas.
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In principle the alternative to backup is storage, but that is impossibly expensive.
https://www.cfact.org/2023/03/17/a-simple-reason-why-net-zero-is-impossible/
Of course these days the magic wand for storage is mythical hydrogen. Never having been done it has no known cost. The perfect fantasy.
https://www.cfact.org/2023/04/17/tesla-rejects-batteries-for-net-zero-storage/
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My comments were restricted to provable, dependable technology that has the ability to provide the immense quantities of energy our modern society requires. Storage via batteries and hydrogen are in the realm of unicorns and fairies as far as I am concerned.
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AGAIN check out their clueless W & S this morning on King island.
The Diesel generator reigns supreme AGAIN as usual and the other generators(?????) are useless AGAIN.
But don’t worry, according to the Bowen and Albo loonies etc TOXIC W & S will somehow power Australia for the rest of the 21st century. No worries mate, SARC.
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
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In a just world blackout bowen, green kean and the rest of these saboteurs would be prosecuted and put in jail for the destruction they have wrought on Australia.
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Too true Cohenite and now the Biden loony wants to fight the Chinese and Russians etc with electric tanks etc.
But how you can move and skilfully operate a 50 + ton machine for more than a very short period seems to have escaped the best US generals and clueless Biden advisers.
Just unbelievable but true.
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Neville,
They will be as good and sensible as any EV.
Geneva would suggest fast charging stations on every 5km grids so that invaders are not disadvantaged.
Tanks are heavy and will requireh huge amounts of charge.
Batteries are very heavy and would increase the amount of energy needed to move the tank.
Tanks go anywhere so we need charging stations everywhere. That requires a lot of wind power
No invasions at night or if it is stil with cloud cover should be allowed
Taken to these extremes suggests why many zealots who bought EV after about 3 years sell at large losses and buy ICE.
30
Well said.
50
I read the word “doldrums” and suddenly realized we are back in the world of sail. Wind turbine blades are sails! There is a whole language that goes with this, that needs revived. “Becalmed” for example. Oz was becalmed. If you were becalmed at sea it could be deadly if you ran out of water. Note that without electricity some places might quickly run out of water.
I used to sing a lot of old sea songs. Have to start remembering them. I do recall “…awaiting a fair breeze to get underway.”
Note that maximum power need, due to a heat wave, is often due to a huge stagnant air mass. Doldrums that can last a week of more.
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Perfect timing, David (see my post below yours). I may have to revisit your CFACT site again to brush-up on your strategies.
Not enough wind – becalmed.
Too much wind – trim the sails.
Pray, me ‘arties, for the trade winds,
and beware the Kraken!
30
At least on your boat you didn’t need to supply power to keep the sails warm when they weren’t working…….
70
Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion,
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.
Coleridge, was it?
30
The world of sail according to Greenpeace, in a 3-image strip:
https://i.postimg.cc/Wzs6xbZm/Greenpeace-make-oil-history-Rainbow-warrior-diesel.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/K8VXbCJ3/Rainbow-Warrior3-Caterpillar-diesel-engine-room-Green-Peace.jpg
https://i.postimg.cc/T3b0ySTD/Rainbow-Warrior3-propelled-by-2x-diesel-engines-Green-Peace.jpg
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“… unless they [offshore subsidy temples] were built halfway to New Zealand.”
Don’t panic, our so-called government has already started from this end. Despite oil & gas & fishing restrictions – to save the dolphins! – the OK has been given to commence ‘consultation’ ($$$) on constructing ‘prayer wheels’ in the Taranaki Bight. Situated between the North & South islands, in a shallow & sheltered part of the Tasman Sea, this is a major route for migrating whales and the home of the above-mentioned Maui dolphins. Yet Gaia’s needs must!
Will be intriguing to see how the oxymoronic ‘Greenpeace’ clowns react to this: killing whales to save the whales? And, as the Cook Strait flows in-and-out through this body of water, no doubt a change of name will be required by the (cough!) traditional sea-bed owners… I’m thinking ‘Dead Dolphin Bay’ or maybe ‘Cetacean Carcass Cove’ as it fits with their CCCrap.
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Hi All
Situated ~ 6 kilometres away from a local Windmill installation in the NSW tablelands … my observation raises another question. The wind howled all day on Wed 3-May. Constant and gusting over 60km/h easily. Big trees came down and all. Commented to a guest that this might mean they would close down the windmills because the wind was too strong. He didn’t believe it. Never heard of such a thing ! The wind subsided slowly overnight and it was back to a relatively normal calm breeze by the time we travelled out around noon Thu 04-May. Mind you, had to spend an hour clearing a large fallen tree off our access track. Anyway, low and behold, passing by the windmills, not one of the dozens of turbines was turning. Could it be that some of that power loss was because some installations had to be turned off due to the wind being too strong ? That would be amusing. Anecdotal, but just a thought. Cheers.
100
The upper limit is around 80-90 km/hr for wind turbines – higher than that, and they are braked.
20
Thanks Ross.
It was “gusting over 60km/h easily” but don’t know if it was as high as you indicate. And they were all braked in a light breeze the following day. Maybe it takes time to bring them back on line (like a coal plant 🙂 ) ? Funny thing is, the Windmill people likely won’t say. A few years ago I asked them if they could confirm a local temperature reading (I even offered to pay for their troubles) and they said no, citing “commercial in confidence”. Sigh.
20
They would not turn in a light breeze. Takes sustained airflow of around 8 mph to turn them, but no generation. Power output is fairly linear from 10 mph up to full power at 33 mph. Many places seldom see 33 so full power is rare.
00
Special Bonus Video of Joanne Nova being interviewed by Austrailia’s own premiere documentary and freedom advocate Topher Field of http://www.battlegroundmelbourne.com fame on the BRAND NEW “Aussie Wire News” YouTube Channel. The video is cued to begin with the Joanne Nova interview…enjoy…and get an education.
https://youtu.be/AegCmqF7dsM?t=649
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I would leave comments across at the RenewEconomy site, telling of the ‘facts’ about how wind power fails to deliver what it is supposedly designed to do, deliver electrical power on a scale required to replace fossil fuel generated regular and reliable power. It was a futile exercise, and I was polite and straightforward with just the facts. It’s something I will not be doing any more. There are not enough hours in the day for that any more for me.
They have no concern whatsoever that wind generation has such a low Capacity Factor, (CF) and they have no comprehension of the mathematics.
Just to highlight the mathematics. When I did mention that long term CF, other contributors at the site told me I had no idea, and that as soon as the newer tech wind plants came on line with CF between 38% and 42%. (for onshore plants, and offshore plants were quoted even higher than that) well, as soon as they came on line, then that CF would rise quite quickly.
If you have a total Nameplate for all wind generation of 10,277MW, and it’s CF is 30%, then if you add (even a larger scale) new wind plant of 500MW, and it’s CF is 38%, the newly calculated CF would be almost indistinguishable from the existing 30%. The same applies for more and more of them (and they are not being built at that rate anyway) and it would take a year or more for that increase to even show up at all, and even then it would be so marginal.
THAT supposed increase should in fact, already be showing up across the last year, as newer technology plants were added across the last 12 Months to take the New Nameplate up to 10,277MW.
In fact, what HAS actually happened is that the most recent 12 Month Yearly CF has gone lower than the overall 240 weeks CF (now more than four and a half year) and has been stubbornly below that figure now for many Months, the opposite of what those wind supporters say with hand on heart.
The most recent figures are – Long term CF (240 weeks) – 30.06%. Most recent 12 Month CF (52weeks) – 29.83% and one year ago, that 52 week CF was 30.32%, and again, half a percent lower, so see how that actually reinforces the maths, in that over the long term, those percentages change by fractions of one percent, and not any large percentages.
Again as they say over at RenewEconomy. Tony, CF is meaningless.
Yep, if it goes against the narrative, then it is meaningless, eh!
Tony.
130
And that is the AVERAGE CF, so it will ebb to close to zero like we have now and flow when the wind does blow. It remains unreliable…
60
Yes, for blackout calculation you must consider the worst case, not the average.
You can guarantee that sooner or later some combination of worst case factors will come together. Hard to say exactly when it will happen, but easy to be confident that it will happen.
We had a generation of people brought up to believe that wanting something bad enough makes it happen … then another generation after that apparently sincerely believe that merely wanting something a little bit (and having a quick mope over it) makes it happen. The only way forward is for these people to experience a failure of their belief system.
20
Tony, sorry to hear about your loss.
50
‘Billions of dollars rests on whether we can stop high pressure cells forming near Adelaide.’
The subtropical ridge, the high pressure belt, is stuck in summer mode.
According to weather lore this should not be happening and as we enter winter you can all observe its failure to move north to the latitude of Byron Bay.
They built those monstrosities thinking global warming was a certainty and cooling inconceivable, the Royal Commission will have a field day.
40
Stuck in the Bight.
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
10
Hi Tony
First of all, let me express my condolences. I read every word of your post about Barbara’s passing; it was a lovely and inspiring account of your lives together. May she rest in peace.
I’m sure I’m not alone in my hope that I will continue to read your posts for a long time to come. There are posts that I always seek out amongst the melee, and yours are firmly in that list.
Regards,
Peter
130
Peter,
Beautifully put re Barbara’s passing.
As for Anton, he is an absolute champion.
I would like to have a go at answering at Graeme#4’s question at #20 as to what is the likely storage requirement on the Eastern Australian grid. As David M says, it’s a simple calculation.
And, I’d hope to draw both Anton’s and David’s comments on my reasoning.
As TdeF says, the wind droughts during the mid-summer or mid-winter demand periods are those that matter.
Scroll through the months of July 2022 and February 2023 at anero.id/energy . These give the times of maximum demand. Pick an estimate from these days of what will yield an estimate of the average maximum demand. I guesstimate a figure of 29,000 MW, give or take. And I think that’s a bit low.
Now comes the bit we can argue about, the minimum length of storage required.
I am going to say that the minimum storage period is 10 days.
Others will scream at me that this is too low, and with very good reasons.
But, please stay with me.
What is the battery storage requirement to meet my minimum of 10 days during a period of maximum demand? Well, as David Maddison says, it’s easy to do.
29000 MW times 10 days times 24 hours is?
6,960,000 MWh (megawatt-hours) of storage.
OK, that’s a big number, but how to put that into some sort of perspective?
When I last checked its website, the Geelong “Big Battery” is quoted as having a storage of
450 MWh.
So, how many of these Geelong “Big Battery” gadgets is required to meet my minimal estimate of the storage requirement? Remember, this is a ballpark figure.
The number is 6,960,000 MWh divided by 450 MWh: 15,667 Geelong Big Batteries.
That figure takes no account of battery charge/discharge times, minimum permitted discharge state, charge/discharge efficiency, ongoing battery replacement/maintenance, etc., etc., all of which massively add to the battery requirement. And if my 10 days is a massive underestimate, the my already impossible-to-achieve number is merely moved that much further into the realms of pure fantasy.
Let’s face the engineering realities: some 16,000 Geelong Big Batteries alone will completely bankrupt the Australian economy. Add the necessary 50,000, 3 MW wind turbines, (and the rest), and we really are into fantasy land.
I welcome comments.
And, as David says, unlike such organisations as the CSIRO, we here are providing this crucial information free of charge.
Best regards,
Paul Miskelly
20
Yet another planned failure in our Claytons energy industry by the energy oligarchs. But how long are we going to keep playing ‘ain’t it awful’ with this sitution. Venting on this website has some cathartic value but what positive action can we legally take to stop the deliberate destruction of our energy supply?
40
Roll out planet-saving solar then engage in geoengineering to dim the sun. Groan…
Maybe they can geo-engineer some permanent windy weather globally while they’re at it?
Now say after me: “Renewable energy isn’t there to save you.”
“Gone with the wind” becomes “Gone without the wind”. 😁
A pun has not matured until it’s fully groan.
30
If you’re worried about doldrums and dunkelflutes there’s another period of really low wind coming this weekend. In fact from about Thursday through to Tuesday a couple of highs are going to be parked over South East Australia leading to very low winds. Saturday would be the least windy day in that period.
40
To put that 6GW into perspective…
.. that is approximately equivalent to the total electricity use for either Queensland or Victoria.
20
Actual Lack Of Reserve is becoming a regular feature in NSW now. This is Monday:
But SA is currently feeling the most economic pain. That low WDG output in South Australia last Thursday required keeping lights on with diesel running. Price shot up to $12,900/MWh for the morning peak from 0730 to 0900.
So NSW is sailing close to the wind (literally) with less running reserve than prudent at times but SA is feeling the most economic pain.
Oakey in Queensland has just recorded its coldest May day on record at -5.6C. For those who do not know its location, it is at 27S latitude.at an elevation of 400m.
How often do the ranges in NSW and QLD get below freezing in early May:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2023/05/08/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-204.86,-29.56,997/loc=151.528,-30.717
Cold, bleak weather just makes the post Liddell era that much more interesting.
40
We just need an EV to plug into when needed.
sarc.
10
What about some more pumped hydro projects with very long pipelines?
20
Right now wind and solar account for a massive 7% of the NEM ! And as usual NSW is wholly reliant on extension leads into QLD and Victoriastan to keep the lights on .
10
It’s crazy to think that we will soon live in fear, not from fires, droughts, floods, storms or cyclones, but from a seemingly benign large high pressure weather system. You can almost read tomorrow’s headline – “Catastrophic high pressure weather system forecast” where people bunker down and prepare for a system black in the dead of winter.
00
AGAIN the King island experimental lunacy is a disaster tonight.
Of course ZERO solar, flat battery, wind is low, but the fossil fuelled Diesel generator saves the islanders night and day.
Big SURPRISE NOT.
But these loonies still believe this UNRELIABLE garbage is CLEAN energy?
https://www.hydro.com.au/clean-energy/hybrid-energy-solutions/success-stories/king-island
10
[…] The media silence on this is a lie by omission, but it’s still a lie, still dishonest, and we need to start protesting outside the ABC and SBS headquarters to draw attention to this deliberate deceit to hide the failures of their sacred totem and co-dependent industries. Those who depend on the government lie for each other all the time. It’s no accident.Jo Nova Blog […]
10