Thursday Open Thread

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74 comments to Thursday Open Thread

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      Travis T. Jones

      Most excellent.
      Thank you.

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      WXcycles

      I’ll translate that for you: If you believe their sophistry, you are a dummy! While using poetic license it is alright to say that blankets warm you, but using actual science, it is not correct. The best a blanket can do is keep you warm.

      Now that’s actual sophistry.

      One blanket keeps you warmer than none, but adding another blanket to the first is even more effective at keeping you warmer.

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        Keeping warmth and raising your temperature are two completely different things.

        It is claimed that GHGs add 33C beyond what the sun provides. If the claim was that GHGs prevent the surface T from dipping much lower than what the sun provides, that would be a different story. But that is not what is claimed. An addition of temperature beyond sun MAX is what is claimed.

        Sorry, but you’re the sophist if you try to blend both stories into one.

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      Peter C

      Go Zoe,

      Let’s not drop the ball on the false theory known As The Radiative Greenhouse Effect.
      I may have to read your piece a few more times.

      Essential radiative gases are not like. Blanket!

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    Yonniestone

    There is a lot of growing frustration out there with shutting down economies vs Covid-19 mitigation with fears of overreaction to an over hyped threat to theories of big government plans of totalitarian control, also recent reports of China having to impose lockdowns again after attempting to restart manufacturing and lifestyles due to another Covid-19 outbreak.

    Regardless of what is reported or occurs what is needed now is cooler heads to prevail and this means the general population not just leaders, if it only takes a minority to make great change then I encourage those that have the gift of reason and persuasion to us it, take heed of the words in the banner at the top of this page and ponder what brought you here in the first place.

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    Dean_from_Ohio

    Aussie Stasi? At least they apologized, canceled his fine and tried to make things right!

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8198175/Man-hit-1-652-fine-unnecessary-travel-going-mountain-biking-Victoria.html

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      Ian Hill

      Is that right? I can’t see that anywhere in the link.

      Notice he had to pay his fine two days before it was issued! I suppose a typo is not an excuse to default.

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    mikewaite

    Now that you are down in Australia to a daily toll of just 50 new cases and 1 new death, surely you can open up for business again.
    There must have been as many saved from death or horrifying injury on the roads during the lockdown (if it is as
    strict as it is here in England – and i don’t know if that is true) as died from the virus.
    I know that the experience of the virus, as related here and elsewhere, makes treating this as just a game of arithmetic
    quite unpalatable, but when you are down to such low figures the destruction of people’s jobs, busineses, social interactions, etc
    seems totally out of proportion.
    Australia does not ban driving because people get killed on the roads, does not ban hiking in the desert because some people get lost and die out there, does not ban surfing because some people drown or are attacked by crocs or sharks or jellyfish.
    Our modern way of life is a compromise between risk and exploration.
    Here in England the police are talking about mounting marshalls at supermarket exits to check every shopping bag to ensure that only ssential food (according to their own and unpublished rules) is being bought (is Australian Chardonnay essential? I think that it is, but a policeman eager to win compliments from his bosses by kicking butt might declare otherwise). It is getting ridiculous and at some point, reached IMO by Australia now ( a long way from it in UK), even more scary than the virus itself.

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      Kalm Keith

      You got it there Mike, and the problem isn’t the virus.

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      • #
        Kalm Keith

        Something to consider.

        Total deaths in Australia attributed to CV19 as of yesterday reached 50, and while that’s sad the road toll here for the same three months of last year was 300.

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    dinn, rob

    then after that
    4-9-20 In recent days, authorities in Pakistan and India have launched massive manhunts for attendees, trying to test or quarantine them to slow the spread of COVID-19.
    In Pakistan, about 20,000 Tablighis are now in quarantine facilities. More than 600 have tested positive for the coronavirus. A health ministry official said that of the country’s 4,067 coronavirus cases, some 1,445 were linked to that gathering (in New Delhi).
    Around 40 percent of Malaysia’s COVID-19 infections have been linked to the Tablighi event, which was held near the capital Kuala Lumpur. Infections in a number of other locations – including Gaza, Indonesia, Cambodia and Brunei – have been linked to the congregations. …
    Tablighi preacher Naeem Butt said the Pakistani gathering ended early after authorities raised concerns, though at the time of the March 12 congregation, organisers had blamed rainy weather for the closure.
    ‘We stopped our rally when the authorities asked us,’ he said. ‘The virus is everywhere, so why accuse us.’…
    Founded in northern India in 1927, the movement has grown since the death of founder Mohammed Ilyas Kandhlawi in 1944, and has millions of followers. The group – which follows Sunni Islam – is generally considered apolitical, but its social and cultural influence has grown in recent decades. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8205135/Islamic-missionary-movement-blamed-spreading-coronavirus-Asia.html
    ………………………………
    Researchers in Shanghai hope to determine whether some recovered coronavirus patients have a higher risk of reinfection after finding surprisingly low levels of Covid-19 antibodies in a number of people discharged from hospital.
    A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.
    In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.
    “Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
    …………….
    4-10-20 “I strongly protest the accusations today that Taiwan is instigating racist attacks in the international community. Taiwan has always opposed all forms of discrimination. For years, we have been excluded from international organizations, and we know better than anyone else what it feels like to be discriminated against and isolated,” Tsai wrote on Facebook in English.
    “I want to take this opportunity to invite Director-General Tedros to visit Taiwan and experience for himself how committed the Taiwanese people are to engaging with and contributing to the world, even in the face of discrimination and isolation,” she said.
    Taiwan’s medical workers and volunteers can be found worldwide, Tsai said.
    “We have never let our inability to join international organizations lessen our support for the international community,” she said.
    Meanwhile, the ministry demanded that Tedros issue a correction and apologize to the Taiwanese public for his “baseless accusations.” https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/04/10/2003734334

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    Kalm Keith

    What’s going on?

    A number of highly credentialed people in the field of epidemiology-virology are suggesting that the picture of this CV19 “emergency” given in the media is incorrect.

    Even on this blog there’s confusion being sewn when we can read here about the chaotic, overwhelmed, unprecedented situation in hospital emergency departments and on further reading be left with the impression that perhaps it wasn’t Australian hospitals but somewhere overseas.

    The government let’s in thousands of poorly supervised potential cases from the floating travel industry and tens of thousands of students who have undergone two weeks of prior isolation? and then shuts Australia down so we don’t catch anything from these new entrants.

    The government, our Prime Minister, the CSIRO, our Public Service don’t seem to have a clue.

    Australia has been shut down and the growing impression is that a catastrophe is just around the corner.

    Society has been closed for business.

    Good luck Australia when all our politicians can do is outbid each other on how hard they are coming down on CV19 without really knowing what they are doing.

    If this is the Apex of Civilisation then we’re Stuffed.

    KK.

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      Sunni Bakchat

      Kalm Keith, the only way out of the hysteria in Australia is for masks to be made mandatory in enclosed spaces and mass testing carried out. The health bureaucrats refuse to tell the truth about masks to protect their own supply. This is confusing the hell out of the average Australian and contributing to the infection rate.

      If masks are made mandatory in enclosed spaces the lockdown can be eased if not ended. Testing can sort those who are immune from those who aren’t, removing the need for many to wear masks.

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        Kalm Keith

        Sunni,
        There’s too much logic in what you say and that automatically excludes it from possible use by Politicians.
        It would simplify things too much.

        🙂
        KK

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          farmerbraun

          It looks like waffle to me .

          Who are you going to test? Every person on the planet?
          Testing with what? Some test with laughable unreliability?

          Testing for what? Presence of Sars Cov-2? Antibodies to the same? Presence of an immune -response ?

          How often ? Every year? Every identification of a novel coronavirus?

          How will you identify who has been tested?

          Nah , looks like rubbish to me.

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          • #
            farmerbraun

            And straight into moderation.

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              Sceptical Sam

              in Australia

              He’s talking about Australia.

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                farmerbraun

                Yeh.
                Specifically – “Hysteria in Australia”.

                The answer is to test EVERY person in Australia to determine the individual levels of antibodies and who is immune and who is not.
                And then some people (which ones?) will not need to wear masks.
                And then the hysteria in Australia will end.
                That’ll work.

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            Chad

            Fbn … do a little research on Statistics and the use of random sampling techniques to predict the distribution of “+ve results” in a large population..
            You may find it useful.

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              farmerbraun

              Chad , I did stats at Uni 45 years ago. So not entirely a novice.

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              • #
                Chad

                Ok, so if your memory is good, you will know how if can be done.
                You do not need to test everyone…
                Tests can look for multiple factors..
                Sampling/analysis can allow for inaccuracies in the test method
                No need to identify who has been tested ..other than +ve results
                Testing to be continuous at a rate and scale determined by the ongoing results,
                ……Stats 101 !

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              farmerbraun

              Agree entirely. But it’s not clear to me that Sunni was advocating for that.

              “. Testing can sort those who are immune from those who aren’t,”

              What size sample is needed for that?
              🙂

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      Ted O'Brien.

      I tick so many boxes that I expect that if I catch this bug it will probably be curtains. I still found myself stocking up from three different supermarkets yesterday. My punt is that it is not really here yet.

      My hearing aid didn’t pick up a single cough.

      It makes me think that we should have been taking action to avoid viruses years ago. it might be a lot easier than we imagined.

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    dinn, rob

    then after that

    4-9-20 In recent days, authorities in Pakistan and India have launched massive manhunts for attendees, trying to test or quarantine them to slow the spread of COVID-19.
    In Pakistan, about 20,000 Tablighis are now in quarantine facilities. More than 600 have tested positive for the coronavirus. A health ministry official said that of the country’s 4,067 coronavirus cases, some 1,445 were linked to that gathering (in New Delhi).
    Around 40 percent of Malaysia’s COVID-19 infections have been linked to the Tablighi event, which was held near the capital Kuala Lumpur. Infections in a number of other locations – including Gaza, Indonesia, Cambodia and Brunei – have been linked to the congregations. …
    Tablighi preacher Naeem Butt said the Pakistani gathering ended early after authorities raised concerns, though at the time of the March 12 congregation, organisers had blamed rainy weather for the closure.
    ‘We stopped our rally when the authorities asked us,’ he said. ‘The virus is everywhere, so why accuse us.’…
    Founded in northern India in 1927, the movement has grown since the death of founder Mohammed Ilyas Kandhlawi in 1944, and has millions of followers. The group – which follows Sunni Islam – is generally considered apolitical, but its social and cultural influence has grown in recent decades. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8205135/Islamic-missionary-movement-blamed-spreading-coronavirus-Asia.html
    ………………………………
    Researchers in Shanghai hope to determine whether some recovered coronavirus patients have a higher risk of reinfection after finding surprisingly low levels of Covid-19 antibodies in a number of people discharged from hospital.
    A team from Fudan University analysed blood samples from 175 patients discharged from the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Centre and found that nearly a third had unexpectedly low levels of antibodies.
    In some cases, antibodies could not be detected at all.
    “Whether these patients were at high risk of rebound or reinfection should be explored in further studies,” the team wrote in preliminary research released on Monday on Medrxiv.org, an online platform for preprint papers. https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3078840/coronavirus-low-antibody-levels-raise-questions-about
    …………….
    4-10-20 “I strongly protest the accusations today that Taiwan is instigating racist attacks in the international community. Taiwan has always opposed all forms of discrimination. For years, we have been excluded from international organizations, and we know better than anyone else what it feels like to be discriminated against and isolated,” Tsai wrote on Facebook in English.
    “I want to take this opportunity to invite Director-General Tedros to visit Taiwan and experience for himself how committed the Taiwanese people are to engaging with and contributing to the world, even in the face of discrimination and isolation,” she said.
    Taiwan’s medical workers and volunteers can be found worldwide, Tsai said.
    “We have never let our inability to join international organizations lessen our support for the international community,” she said.
    Meanwhile, the ministry demanded that Tedros issue a correction and apologize to the Taiwanese public for his “baseless accusations.” https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2020/04/10/2003734334

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    Kalm Keith

    Perhaps CV19 really is Australia’s First Media Epidemic.

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    farmerbraun

    NZ talking about dropping back to level 3 , but undecided as to what that entails.

    Question: if the test for the presence of Sars -Cov-2 has >50% false +, and false – , then what are the identifiers/symptoms of Covid- 19 , as distinct from infection by other coronaviruses, that enable one to know that the test is giving false readings .i.e. positively identify the presence of Sars -Cov -2 when the test is unreliable?

    Does the team think?

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    Aussie Pete

    Back in the “good old days”, like, this time last year, it was not uncommon for 100,000 people to pack into Melbourne’s famous MCG to watch a game of footy. Those days will return, hopefully sooner rather than later, however with almost every sport on the Planet being shut down, it was inevitable that something else would emerge to replace them.
    The most popular pastime sweeping the World at the moment is a game called “flattening the curve.” I use the word popular only in the sense that everyone is playing it, whether they want to or not – it is compulsory.
    It can best be described as a mind game and can be played by one or more people without need for any special venue. It is played between two teams, one is known as “Responsibility” and the other is “Selfishness”.
    What makes this game particularly exciting is the extremely high stakes and individuals may change teams at will and as often as they like, however in the end, only “Team Responsibility” can win. “Team Selfishness” has many attractions and unfortunately also a large number of dedicated members.
    The legendary UK football (soccer) coach Bill Shankly, who incidentally died in 1981, having forged his fame with Liverpool, is credited with saying that “football is not a matter of life or death, it is much more important than that.” Could he have had the game of “flattening the curve” in mind?
    The rules have been drawn up by a committee and are enforced in an ad hoc fashion by unspecified officials, which frequently results in disputes amongst participants and spectators alike. There’s nothing much new in any of that, I hear you say.
    On the World Stage, as is often the case, Australia is punching above its weight when it comes to “flattening the curve”, which is a sure sign that Team Responsibility is winning this mind game and it is to be hoped that as more members come on board, there will be less players permanently consigned to the bench.
    There would be few amongst us who can truthfully claim not to have spent at least just a little time playing for “team selfish” but the authorities are creating the circumstances for a major defection if they don’t soon wake up.
    Just about everyone is capable and indeed would wish to behave responsibly. The important ingredient, for this to be successful, surely is common sense.
    Responsible people of goodwill make up the bulk of society, but a breakdown will occur if nonsensical, draconian rules are enforced with heavy penalties. Our leaders urgently need to get some common sense into the system or else this game will go into a long and unnecessary extra time period with dire consequences.
    Flattening the curve is not just a matter of life and death, a prosperous and harmonious society, where individuals are free to practice their own brand of responsibility, into the future is more important than that.
    Posted at http://www.dinosaurdiary.com.au

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      Sunni Bakchat

      Aussie Pete, with all due respect framing matters as you have perfectly illustrates the problem in Australia at present.
      Lets perhaps recast this as “Team Stupid” and “Team Smart”. Team Smart prepared for a pandemic and stockpiled masks, generic test kits and various other requisite items in preparation for the next SARS type virus. Team Smart educated its population on what to do in case a pandemic eventuated. Team Smart evolved its approach using infotech, innovative medical techniques and medicines as new information came to light. Team smart went in early and hard because it knew what to do.
      Team stupid wasn’t prepared. Team Stupid had no masks, no test kits and little medicine. Team Stupid brushed off viruses from Asia as someone else’s problem. Team stupid boasted it was the clever country but used little of its infotech capability to thwart the virus; instead opting for heavy handed policing, hyperbole and propaganda that would make Goebbels blush and Bernays look like an amateur. Team Stupid gamed the virus telling all it was in a Unique position. As Team Smart got back to work and tried to explain its winning strategy, Team Stupid tuned out and went its own sweet way mired in internecine infighting and a whirlwind of lies and confusion.
      Time to change teams Aussie Pete!

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        farmerbraun

        ” hyperbole and propaganda that would make Goebbels blush ”
        Rich irony there.
        Goebbels would have you shot for incompetence.

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      • #
        David-of-Cooyal-in-Oz

        But who are the “teams smart”? Singapore?? Maybe, but they’re now closing schools? Sweden? Depends on your measure I guess? Taiwan seems best. Any other nominations?
        As I see it, and Jo called it early, the big problem had two aspects: symptomless contagion; and overwhelmed health systems, particularly hospitals.
        And, again as I see it, the measures put in place here in Oz are successfully addressing the latter at last, and the use of (I think) hydroxychloroquine + + can be used as a curative, at low cost. Availability sounds like a problem short term.
        Cheers
        Dave B

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        • #
          Sceptical Sam

          Hydroxychloroquine is now available.

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          • #
            farmerbraun

            But it is only one of many zinc ionophores, all of which do the same thing.
            So why are we not talking about zinc and its central role in the immune system?

            00

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          Sunni Bakchat

          DoCiO, I was thinking South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan in terms of Team Smart.

          As Jo mentioned in her subsequent post, much of Australia’s success to date comes purely down to luck and getting a couple of simple things right. Australia could have done a lot better if it had wanted to and was better organised.

          Would be great if Chloroquine was available in Australia. Last reports on this blog (prior to today) indicated a shortage or no availability in Australia.

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        Ted O'Brien.

        Meanwhile, Team Average is doing remarkably well for us. We should catch up with Team Smart a lot sooner than they are saying.

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      Chad

      I am a little surprised that there has not been a better “model” developed of theis unique situation .
      The authorities have presented their simplistic “exponential” spike and alternative “flattened” Graphicc,.. but how about something more along the lines of “Simcity” ..where you have a typical population living a typical social life ( varing for different countries and states) with “normal” activities ,..work, sport, schools, travel, cruise ships, etc etc…you get the picture ?
      Then you could introduce a “virus” in various possible ways,..alter the “Ro”,.. alter the defensive actions, ..lockdowns etc” ,.vary the hospital capacity, open/close schools,.. etc etc etc..
      IA real “simulation” with multiple variables. !
      Someone must do it surely ?

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      • #
        Chad

        ..^^^ of course , all this would be in full #D colour on screen just as with Simcity with bodies falling in the streets in some countries , whilst beach parties rave on in others , etc etc

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        Sunni Bakchat

        Chad, I posted last week on some risk metrics for dealing with the environment in which the virus spreads most easily; which is enclosed, unventilated rooms with lots of people talking/singing/coughing/sneezing for an extended period. As usual no thoughtful response on this blog for an extended period. Just don’t think people are really thinking ahead on matters or taking responsibility for themselves. Here are the key variables below again.

        V – Ventilation – How well ventilated is the area?
        D – Duration – What is the duration of contact? Is it for more than 20-30 minutes?
        D – Density – How many persons are in the subject enclosed/unenclosed area?
        P – Proximity – How close are persons to each other? Are they clustered or evenly distributed?
        A – Activity – Are the area occupants talking/singing, coughing, sneezing?
        M – Masks – How many persons in area are wearing masks?

        The above pre-supposes regular hand sanitisization and Micro-droplet transmission.

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    farmerbraun

    That was conclusive. What a farce.

    03

  • #
    farmerbraun

    SARS-CoV-2

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  • #
    Robber

    In Australia, 85 new cases of Covid19 were reported on April 9, compared to a peak on March 28 of 460 new cases.
    7 day rolling average of new cases is down from peak of 376 to 139. First week of March the average was just 7.
    Total number of confirmed cases 6,100 with 3,000 reported as recovered and 51 deaths.
    In Vic, there were 114 new cases on March 29, just 16 on April 9.
    Interestingly, across the ditch in NZ that went into total lockdown 15 days ago, new cases also peaked on March 28 at 146, latest count 29. The initial level 4 period is due to end on April 23.
    We are rapidly exterminating this virus in Australia and NZ.
    Good news for a Happy Easter, but keep isolated.

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    • #
      Bill In Oz

      Facts are always welcome Robber !
      A are opinions based on facts.
      Thanks !

      Opinions based on ignorance I do not welcome.

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        Robber

        Thanks Bill. And in SA, from a daily peak of 35 cases, last 5 days average 3 cases per day, yesterday just 1.

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          Bill In Oz

          Yes, here in SA I think we are seeing this virus destroyed.
          A couple of weeks to make certain
          And then we can consider loosening things within SA
          But keeping the borders locked to prevent it re-entering SA
          Till the other states have achieved the same aim.

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            toorightmate

            Surely this proves, beyond doubt, that wind power exterminates coronavirus.

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            • #
              Bill In Oz

              Ho, Ho, Ho !
              Bugger the wind power.
              Just the result of SA being a bit more isolated than NSW, Vic. Qld & ACT !

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          • #
            Chad

            Bill In Oz
            April 10, 2020 at 9:51 am ·
            Yes, here in SA I think we are seeing this virus destroyed.
            A couple of weeks to make certain
            And then we can consider loosening things within SA
            But keeping the borders locked to prevent it re-entering SA

            How many cases (asymptomatic ?) do yo need to have holed up in isolation….to re-ignite another major outbreak..when the lockdowns are removed ?

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            • #
              farmerbraun

              NZ is talking about moving back to level three from the current “lockdown” , which isn’t a lockdown at all.
              So we should have the answer shortly , if many new clusters arise and start to proliferate. This is what the doctors are being told to expect to continue for a year or so – backwards and forwards between level 4 and level 3.

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      Robber

      Great news! From Live updates in The AUstralian: “Deputy chief medical officer Paul Kelly said Australia is not at the danger rate of infection — an average of five people infected by one direct source — and that the epidemic could die out in several weeks at the earliest: as long as shutdown measures remain in place and people continue to socially distance.”

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    el gordo

    JCU puts the hat around for more money.

    ‘Some reefs had 90% of their shallow water corals bleached – an extreme level likely to lead to deaths of many corals, said Prof Andrew Hoey, a co-ordinator of the expedition.

    Hoey said: “It’s becoming too familiar to jump in to the water and see large swatches of severely bleached corals. It’s quite devastating.”

    ‘Even at 10 metres deep, some reefs saw half their corals bleached, with isolated bleaching seen as deep as 20 metres.

    ‘Hoey, a marine biologist at James Cook University, said the results were preliminary with further analysis to be carried out for the three-year monitoring project, which comes to a close in June.’ Guardian

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    farmerbraun

    I have no other way of getting through so I’ll post again what I said this morning , and which went straight to moderation and stayed for an hour or two.
    So I drew attention to my plight, and all those were moderated too. I still don’t know what’s wrong with it . Finally I made the mistake of posting on the wrong thread.
    “NZ talking about dropping back to level 3 , but undecided as to what that entails.

    Question: if the test for the presence of Sars -Cov-2 has >50% false +, and false – , then what are the identifiers/symptoms of Covid- 19 , as distinct from infection by other coronaviruses, that enable one to know that the test is giving false readings .i.e. positively identify the presence of Sars -Cov -2 when the test is unreliable?

    Does the team think?”

    So I’m back on the black list again it seems.

    [Farmerbraun, I’ll take you off the list, but please be careful what you post at #1 – #5. If you get stuck in moderation please email support AT joannenova.com.au. We’ll try to help. – Jo]

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      I’ll post soon on new markers in blood tests, but the Chinese were using the bilateral chest “opacity” xray during the peak spread.

      In a pandemic that’s new, one virus does swamp most of the other normal infections, though there will be some double infections.

      They can test fecal expression of rna as well. It appearly continues longer.

      Another classic sign of this disease is the rebounding effect on day 5-8. Some blood liver enzymes are raised. Blood clotting related factors.

      All this is why we need this delay in peaking so we can figure this thing out.

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    williamx

    Washington post.

    Reported by David Fickling | Bloomberg

    (re wet markets opening again in China)

    Quote:

    “If they’re showing resilience as suppliers of fresh goods, it’s precisely because consumers regard them as a healthier and more sustainable alternative.

    That perception isn’t inaccurate. The prevalence of food-borne microbial illness in developing East Asia suggests that far from being cesspits of disease, wet markets do a good job of providing households with clean, fresh produce. And while the origins of coronavirus remain obscure, they may have at least as much to do with more worldwide activities such as intensive farming as practices specific to Asia.”

    End quote.

    David Fickling reports:

    “the origins of coronavirus remain obscure.”

    This reporter/journalist then implies that:

    “intensive farming as practices specific to Asia” are a possible cause of coronavirus.

    The reporter/journalist also states:

    “far from being cesspits of disease, wet markets do a good job of providing households with clean, fresh produce.”

    …..

    Wow

    Is this the calibre of investigative reporting that is the standard today?

    10