JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
Our incredulous National Broadcaster has just uncovered ‘the truth’ about the most recent positive IOD, not only does it cause bushfire conditions in Australia – it causes biblical plagues in Africa.
Seriously – as dumb as a box of hammers, without the inherent usefulness of either the hammers or the box!
191
I must say that I dread the next nine months up to COP26 in Glasgow.
There is sure to be an ever increasing cacophany from the MSM and others about the coming disasters where every nuance of the weather is blamed on climate change.
Any suggestions as to how to survive it.
I think I will get out into the garden and/or go fishing.
121
Try laughing at them. Seriously, imagine the sound of their wheels spinning. They are going nowhere, but loudly.
See my https://www.cfact.org/2019/12/26/a-year-of-ineffective-climate-madness-looms/
100
I like StephenP’s humour. Trouble is, it would be a laugh but there is no joke. This climate hysteria,
built on a base of political philosophy designed to smack the successful West, is succeeding. The
hysteria seems to have destroyed the human ability to think logically. People who profess to believe in
free speech and democracy now forbid, or prevent by personal attack, debate; that disease, promoted by
political activists having created the Climate theory to press their attacks, now affects the broad
population that accepts the dictates from their parliaments.
In those parliaments most politicians take the same dictated view. It’s like everyone believing Hitler
was great when all practical knowledge and experience said otherwise. I think we’ve moved past what most
people with a little knowledge of history and how political movements work, would regard the current official
opinion as being so monstrously stupid.
We seem to be in a world that’s unbelievably naive and has lost all ability it had to suspect when it
is being conned. Worse, most seem to have been cowed by the personal ridicule and threats if they speak up.
Safety and income ensure most that should and could speak up, with expertise, don’t. Instead they engage in
work promoting the false argument or simply lose themselves in non controversial areas to advance science.
71
I think you are overstating the case, Doc. There are lots of vocal skeptics and the alarmists are making very little progress, compared to what they are calling for.
00
I am wishing them an epic Scottish winter.
10
CLINTEL Manifesto blasts climate scaremongering
By David Wojick
https://www.cfact.org/2020/01/29/clintel-manifesto-blasts-climate-scaremongering/
There is NO climate emergency. Preaching doom and gloom is a crime against the young generation. These are the key points of a new manifesto from the Climate Intelligence Group or CLINTEL.
CLINTEL is a rapidly growing international group, led by prominent scientists, that opposes the ill-founded attempts to scare people into hasty climate policy actions. They also oppose the terrorizing of children as part of the false climate alarm. CLINTEL recently issued a World Climate Declaration denouncing scaremongering and this new manifesto provides detailed scientific backup for the WCD for a wide public. The manifesto is authored by Professor Guus Berkhout, the President of CLINTEL.
The focus of the Berkhout manifesto is on climate related modeling, which it says is “unfit for purpose.” The purpose in this case is predicting future climate change. Modeling dominates climate science. It also provides the scary scenarios that drive hugely expensive and disruptive climate emergency action policies. That the models are faulty is a very important finding.
The manifesto says there are at least four strong reasons why today’s models are no good.
First, the model makers have not properly included the many factors that are known to be important, especially natural variability. In fact the major models simply assume that (almost) all climate change is due to human activity, an unproven hypothesis.
Second, the predictions to date are dramatically too warm compared to actual satellite measurements. There has been relatively little warming in the last 20 years and much of that looks to be natural. In stark contrast the models have predicted dramatic warming that has not occurred. The models are far too hot to be trusted. Not the climate but the model makers are the source of the panic.
Third, the models lack consideration of historical climate data. There is a growing list of observational studies finding that the global temperature is nowhere near as sensitive to human-generated CO2 as the models assume. Ironically the latest generation of models is even more sensitive than their predecessors, so they are getting even further from observation. The models are getting worse, not better.
Nor can these models explain past periods of warming and cooling, such as the medieval warm period (MWP) and the recently ended little ice age (LIA). If we cannot even explain past climate change, exclusively caused by natural variability, then we certainly cannot understand the present and predict the future. A great deal more data and research is needed in this area. We simply have insufficient insight in the complex nature of climate change. Climate science is far from settled!
All of these glaring problems with models are well explained in the Berkhout manifesto. It follows that present model projections of dangerous future warming and subsequent natural disasters are not to be trusted. They are certainly no basis for inflicting damaging climate policies on the world. The manifesto puts it succinctly: “Stop using Misleading Computer Models.”
CLINTEL is also focused on children being demoralized by climate alarmism. Young people are easy to influence by activists because they have not had enough science to defend themselves. In addition, climate change and environmental pollution are hopelessly confused. To explain why there is NO climate emergency, the manifesto closes with “a message to our grandchildren.” Here is the gist of the message:
“Don’t behave like a parrot. Be critical against the many false prophets who try to misuse you and try to turn you against your parents. The information they tell you is one-sided and misleading. Please, deepen your climate knowledge. By doing so, you will find out that there is NO empirical evidence that points at any climate crisis.”
The World Climate Declaration basically says that the climate policies, being called for in the false name of emergency, not only dangerously undermine the global economic system but they also put lives at risk in countries where large-scale access to reliable and affordable electricity is made unfeasible. This CLINTEL manifesto provides the science showing that there is no such emergency.
CLINTEL recently sent a letter of protest to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The basic message is clearly stated here: “Despite heated political rhetoric, we urge all world leaders to accept the reality that there is no climate emergency. There is ample time to use scientific advances to continue improving our understanding of climate change. Meanwhile, we should go for ADAPTATION; adaptation works whatever the causes are.”
For more information see https://clintel.org and look at:
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/63030622/there-is-no-climate-emergency
Please share this.
David
181
Climate emergency busted wide open?
No problem.
We have available a very nice line of pandemic emergencies. Would you like to try one?
90
Sounds yummy. Do you by any chance have mad cow sleeping bird flu?
80
Apparently mad cow disease has been observed in Queensland, they call it line dancing.
lol
120
Less than five minutes . . . . . . and most interesting . . . . . but of course maybe not quite as interesting as Queensland beer . . . .
“Biotech Stocks Soar Over Coronavirus”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=azlHT4bBN0I&feature=youtu.be
40
Another great piece David. To this I would add.
100
re farmerbraun,
“a very nice line of pandemic emergencies”?
https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/
“A severe pandemic which becomes ‘Event 201’ would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions”.
Brought to you by the World Economic Forum, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and a host of fear-mongering advocates keen on total kontrol. When ‘climate emergency’ fails, roll out ‘pandemic emergency’…
20
Good point, WX. Especially when those activists are their teachers. The idea of not believing your teacher is never taught.
00
The use (sacrifice?) of our children shows just how despicable the ethics of the activists are.
They have worked through the western institutions and utilise the education system with devastating,
malignant effect. They have had 40years or more to do this so even our middle aged people are in their
thrall. The brilliance of the change in the education system that in that time actively reduced the
attraction or the requirement of students to have a science, a maths or history in their education
subjects is now in fruition for all to see. That killed widespread defence and suspicion against the spread
of illogical, political doctrine backed in pseudoscience. Our social defences were dismantled.
10
I was glad to see your name on the list of signatories David.
There should be a few more on the list from Australia, but I do not think they have updated the list yet.
Hopefully the list of signatories will continue to grow.
10
There are just over 100 Aussies listed on the website as of now:
https://clintel.org/australia/
There may well be more.
00
Electric Power Reliability.
Here in Newcastle over the last week or so there have been three power shutdowns over night.
Are we boosting South Australia through Victoria or is the infamous Interconnector already working.
Our oven and microwave clocks are zeroed whenever this sneaky business happens.
Not a good sign.
KK
90
There are a number of planned outages in that area and others. See https://www.ausgrid.com.au/Outages/Planned-interruptions
30
Aren’t customers notified of planned outages?
40
There is no standard answer David. I know in my area it communicated well in advance. Not a common occurence though.
10
Mate in Melbourne lost power for 5 hours yesterday 5pm to 10pm , was this planned or were they short of power yesterday ?
90
Here we go – strap yourselves in.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/30/bushfire-survivors-join-claim-against-anz-for-financing-climate-crisis
I wonder if we can sue someone, anyone, re not allowing hazard reduction or clearing land to prevent houses burning down – maybe councillor Ms Dodds.
140
What next? Class actions against the coal mining companies and coal fired power companies? The lunacy keeps escalating unabated. It really is time for PM Morrison to step up to the plate and call the whole show a scam and a hoax. He won’t though because he’s an appeaser and a coward.
160
More Guardian B/S!
Propaganda for the climate zombies!
60
Who can solve the mystery of the two hemispheres?
https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2020/01/30/north-and-south-hemisphere/
90
There is an awful lot of water down south, its the only thing that stands out. We might get a better perspective if we contemplate the ‘bipolar seesaw’.
50
Maybe geothermal difference?
There’s no rule geothermal must be symmetric.
50
Geothermal energy is strongly correlated with seismicity. Most of the seismicity in the south-hem is under water, Tonga and Kermadec trenches, south Sandwich trench for instance. Few island arcs with above surface expression.
50
I have a more generic theory that doesn’t involve seismicity, lava, hotsprings, geysers or anything special. Just boring thermal energy:
https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2019/12/04/the-case-of-two-different-fluxes/
https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2019/12/06/measuring-geothermal-1/
31
All of those things you mentioned are just manifestations of thermal energy.
00
Between 0 and 30 degrees latitude,
North is still 1.2 degrees hotter.
30
Possibly a netted artifact of Antarctic ice being up to 12,000 ft high and as a result much colder over a larger surface area, and air above it has a more consistent colder temp from a much shallower troposphere compared to the Arctic. Currently the Antarctic surface is almost the same temp as the tropopause above (about -45 C). Pretty sure that does not occur above the Arctic.
40
65N-90N : -9.19 C
65S-90S : -18.38 C
65-90 latitude is 9.1% of a hemisphere
Arctic vs. Antarctic gives the North a
9.2 C * 0.091 = 0.84 C advantage
That is indeed a factor, but not enough to overcome the 0.458 C elevation advantage and 1.86 C insolation advantage of the South.
We are now at 1.86 + 0.458 – 0.84 = 1.478 C advantage for the South, but North is still 1.3 C warmer.
30
There is a lot more land from equator to 30 deg north latitude.
40
I mean comparing 0-30N to 0-30S.
30
The Earth isn’t perfectly spherical.
The Earth axis is tilted.
Gravity has created a sagging earth with a correspondingly fatter southern bottom.
KK
30
Kalm Keith:
Now you done it. Expect hordes of frothing at the mouth comments about your derogatory description of the Earth’s physical appearance. You will be condemned for all the same old WOKE
reasonsreactions**.**I can’t accuse them of reasoning.
41
My apologies for being unintentionally insensitive, but things do tend to sag under gravity.
40
There is more atmospheric CO2 in the Northern Hemisphere. Could that be the reason?
30
If we accept that proposition then its a lukewarmism model.
50
A higher temperature could support a thicker atmosphere with any type of gases.
The GHG theory proposition cretes a chicken and egg type problem: Is it hotter due to gases, or is there more gas cause it’s hotter.
I’m of the hotter -> more gas sort.
60
“A higher temperature could support a thicker atmosphere with any type of gases.”
A thicker atmosphere could support a higher temperature with any type of gases. 🙂
60
Now I’m really confused. What was the question again?
20
Kalm Keith,
The question is, “How quickly can George Soros and friends make the planet Earth cubical”?
10
I suspect that with George, Elon, Prince Charles and a few of the others, like the Algorythm, anything might be possible.
At least conceptually.
20
Andy,
Sorry but it takes kinetic energy to have a thicker atmosphere. Causality runs one way. So unless the hand of god grabs the atmosphere and pulls it higher, it would need kinetic->potential energy to be thicker. Tempetature is that kinetic energy.
40
Perhaps “deeper” might be a better word.
Thickness may be taken as increased density.
30
That’s just it, as you say, we don’t have a thicker atmosphere.
So all temperature variability must be because of external forces.
20
“Sorry but it takes kinetic energy to have a thicker atmosphere. Causality runs one way.”
Sorry, but that is not correct.
A thicker atmosphere means there must be more kinetic energy retained.
20
LOL
10
Maybe a geophysicist could help resolve this by indicating whether there are differences in gravitational pull at comparable points in each hemisphere.
40
We don’t need a geologist.
I have the skillz 🙂
I authored: https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2020/01/01/earth-average-surface-gravity/
(My article avoids topography)
Including topography, the answer is
North – 9.8001101126
South – 9.8004325220
A difference of 0.00032
Too little to matter.
70
P.S.
Gravity still favors the South.
60
There have been papers written on this, but I’ll jump to this story where Gergis reckons for the past 40 years both hemispheres have been on the same plate. What do you make of that?
https://phys.org/news/2014-03-southern-hemisphere-climate-clearer-global.html
20
Interesting, el gordo, but I honestly have no comment. I am not familiar with South paleoclimatoloy. I just have to nod in agreement with what they said.
40
I honestly am very sceptical about anything published by Gergis, especially if it involves Climate!
They say that the current temperatures are higher than anything in the past thousand years, which is a very convenient starting point. The peak of the medieval warm period (which was supposed to be warmer) is neatly excised. Similarly the Roman warming and the Minoan warming.
https://i1.wp.com/www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Images/Main/Warm_periods.jpg
30
have been on the same plate
Yep elG, we have all been being fed the same BS. !! 😉
20
It was a trick question for Zoe, Gergis is suggesting both hemisphere are in lockstep and this hasn’t happened before, which of course is nonsense. Must be the Southern Hemisphere hockey stick.
My guess on the cooler SH at the moment may have something to do with ocean dynamics and currents. Would a cooler southern ocean lower the atmospheric temperature?
Alternatively the cooling might be related to albedo, more or less.
10
The mystery had been solved.
Updated original post:
https://phzoe.wordpress.com/2020/01/30/north-and-south-hemisphere/
30
Perhaps, this debate has been around for awhile, Sarah Kang paper looked at Croll (1870).
http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/pub/seager/Kang_Seager_subm.pdf
00
Cool, but my theory is the best.
Heat capacity obviously crossed my mind, but this article ignores the rapid cooling of low heat capacity. They only imagine quicker heat up, not quicker cool down.
20
Here is some contemporary reading on the subject of geothermal activity and you’ll note how it alters ‘overturning’.
https://judithcurry.com/2019/07/21/geothermal-ocean-warming-discussion-thread/#more-25017
The other point worth discussing, geothermal activity in the Western Pacific and its relation to ENSO. Fame and fortune awaits the person who can crack the code.
00
A coal fired generator has shut down in the Latrobe Valley.
And the wind is not blowing !
And it’s hot in Victoria
Well, well, well !
Looks like the grid’s going to collapse there.
So Dan & hs dumbnut crew, especially Lilly Dambrosio
Are at panic stations !
Time for them to develop some grey hair !
Good !
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/victoria-heatwave-high-fire-risk-january-31/11916302
60
The comments in The Oz were very interesting and full-on yesterday, firstly with the SA premier’s remarks, then quickly followed by the outages and power restrictions in Victoria. Very entertaining!
20
“Word Health Organisation declares public health emergency over 2019-nCoV acute respiratory disease”
https://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2020/01/word-health-organisation-declares-public-health-emergency-over-2019-ncov-acute-respiratory-disease.html
21
Adani pays bond for rehabilitation – wind farms not so much.
“The Australian” newspaper yesterday published an exclusive report on the Queensland Government’s decision to increase the rehabilitation requirement on the Adani coal project.
“Adani was again required to pay more in November last year, when the department determined a revised ‘estimated rehabilitation cost’ of $24,851,284.91.” (Page 6. 30 January 2020)
$25 million. Now that’s what a responsible company does.
This amount will be met by way of a bank guarantee and cash deposit held in a bank account controlled by the Queensland Department of Environment and Science.
So how does that compare to the requirements placed on wind farms?
Infragen’s Bodangora Wind Farm in New South Wales posted its Decommissioning & Rehabilitation Plan (DRP) in 2017. No bond is paid and the concrete is to be left in the ground, covered over and reseeded:
“4.1.1 Wind turbines and foundations
Similar to the erection of the wind turbines, a crane will arrive on site and dismantle all wind turbine
components. The turbine rotor, blades and nacelle will be removed using a crane with each
component or blade lifted as a single unit and carefully to maximise the potential resale ability.
The steel towers will be removed in sections and marketed for resale. If any of the wind turbine
components cannot be sold, they will be recycled where possible. If the tower units are not bought
they will be trucked to a scrap metal recycling plant. The location of this plant will be determined
closer to the time of decommissioning, however at this stage two local options have been identified.
The remainder of the turbine will be dismantled into smaller components to allow for more efficient
recycling. This procedure will take place either at each wind turbine crane pad/ laydown area.
The concrete foundation will be retained in the ground and covered with an appropriate top soil
before reseeding.”
https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/infigen/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/19151340/Bodangora-Decommissioning-and-Rehabilitation-Plan.pdf
How many free kicks do the promoters of this renewable scam get before the government wakes up to the long-term damage and associated costs? Costs which are ignored or kicked down the road.
90
Meanwhile Germany is disposing of old blades by burying them in Africa. The USA has dumps in the west where they become landfill.
Those blades (and the fibreglass nacelle) won’t be re-used at all. The onlt possible use identified so far is to grind them up and use them as fillers for concrete. The expense of grinding rules that out.
The rotor and associated electro-magnetic parts would be of value as scrap. The 200 metre (probably rusting) steel tower?
I feel that Infragen will just abandon the turbines and disappear without paying anything.
120
I wonder how successful will covering the concrete bases will be? Our new septic tank was put in on the north side of the house and covered with topsoil. Grass steadfastly refuses to grow there, despite several efforts to put more topsoil over it and reseed. I rather think the soil heats up too much and can imagine the same happening over concrete bases without a great depth of topsoil.
40
There’s going to be a lot of monuments scattered around the world from derelict
wind farms. In a thousand years they’ll be novelties where the people of the day try to
figure out what stupidity of today they represent.Doubt they would ever click on how
simplistic we could ever have been to think we controlled the climate. They’ll
probably work out the rusted hulks were built as monuments to interstellar visitors.
80
They will be the modern equivalent of the Eastern Island statues.
Very expensive to build and have no effect.
40
Ozymandias.
Tony.
80
“Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!’
20
🙂
20
The mainstreaming of non-hydro renewables has to be treated not only as a giant folly but as an economic war waged on nations by the globsters. Even as they erect these follies we need to make it clear that they will all go. Every single scrap will be removed, no matter the cost. Prosecution will follow.
Recognise the enemy. The fiends assemble regularly and call themselves “council”, “foundation”, “club”, “commission”, “fund” etc. The can often be identified by tax their free status, colossal smugness, millions of air miles and fake tans.
Defeat the enemy. Not possible from the top because the enemy IS the top. Work from the bottom. Turn off their refuse media. Talk to each other. Doubt every panic, event or crisis. Double doubt every offered “solution”. Emphasise tradition, family, privacy and property.
Remove all traces of the enemy. Cancel, dismantle, remove all white elephants presented as “green initiatives”. Leave none of it. Announce the intention to dismantle and completely obliterate even as they are being erected. After the economic war, prosecute where possible, but respect law. Then forget.
Despite the presentation of these clunky, feeble antique technologies as future “solutions”, we must not lose faith in the new. Whirlygigs and Big Battery have worked to destroy that faith – maybe that was the intention! – but there will be new technologies and actual solutions. Keep faith in human inventiveness, cancel the top-generated phony conflicts (eg Boomers v Millennials) and collaborate with our human wits.
Make it known now that such are our firm intentions. Their doings will be undone, regardless of cost.
60
Does the wind farm have to put up a bond? I presume not. Haven’t read the PDF yet, but I’m again presuming that it doesn’t say how they will dispose of the blades if not sold. My guess is dig a trench and bury them. Not good. As for the bases, they will remain forever as lasting monuments to man’s stupidity.
40
No bond required.
They calculate they’ll make a profit from recycling. And, leaving the concrete and rebar in the ground, camouflaged with a layer of top soil and some seeds.
Why pay a bond when the taxpayer will pick up the tab?
20
Subtropical Ridge Collapses Over Australia
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDY65100.pdf
Is this a global warming signal?
20
EG My guess is NO !
But would you care to elaborate ?
00
Thirty years ago the global warming alarmists were saying this would happen, the south becomes more tropical.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/oppressive-humid-conditions-for-southern-australia-as-heatwave-combines-with-tropical-airmass/531010
10
It has happened before ! Look at the January monthly rainfall totals for Mt Barker since 1963, EG
1868 80 mmls.
1881 81,5 mmls
1904 112 mmls
1922, 115 mmls
1941, 156 mmls
1970, 97.5 mmls
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=139&p_display_type=dataFile&p_startYear=&p_c=&p_stn_num=023733
I arbitaraly chose 80 mmls in January as a wet month with ‘tropical type weather.
Curiously there have been no really wet January’s since 1970 ! And that is before any supposed ‘CO2 global warming’ was happening. So the theory does not conform to the BOM’s basic rainfall observations for this past of SA
And so far this month January 2020, there has been in my gauge 56 mmls and it is I assure you pretty tropical here right now
20
‘Curiously there have been no really wet January’s since 1970 !’
That might be explained by the Great Climate Shift of 1976.
10
Well, there you have it.
Yesterday saw the largest power consumption for Australia that I have ever seen. I can chase records back a number of years, and I can’t find a day with higher power consumption.
The total power consumption was 692GWH for the day. The day before that (Wednesday) was the next highest it has been and that was only 647GWH, so Thursday was almost 7% higher than that. For some perspective weekends are always lower for power consumption, and yesterday was 21% higher than for last Saturday, when weekends are usually lower by around 8% to 12% in these recent weeks of Mid Summer.
The 692GWH is at an hourly average of 28850MW. The year round average is 23200MW, so yesterday was higher than the average by 24%
The lowest consumption for the day, around 4AM was 20320MW (yearly average for Base Load is 18000MW) and the Peak for the day was a huge 36280MW.
Rooftop solar power made up 46GWH of that, and taking that away, it still comes in at 646GWH, (hourly average of 26920MW) still higher than any other day’s total power consumption.
The NEM only indicates power plant generation, so rooftop solar is not counted, just power plant generation. At 5PM, the NEM was showing that power consumption was 34470MW. The mix of power generation at that time was:
Coal fired – 55.41% (19100MW)
Hydro – 15.39%
Wind – 1.46%
Solar plants – 3.92%
The remainder (a tick more than 23%) was made up of 4 versions of gas fired power.
Strap yourself in because today is supposed to be even higher than that.
Tony.
180
Notice NSW is using way more than being generated in the state so extension cords to the rescue
I’m not a fan of the new AEMO widget .
30
Something else I haven’t seen was hydro that high either, delivering at the peak a total of 6210MW and more than 15%.
As part of that, the pumped hydro plant at Tumut 3 was also working non stop for more than six hours, and at one stage all seven Units were in operation and delivering 1750MW, at that 5PM peak.
Because of that, they have to furiously pump all that water back ‘up the hill’ and because of that the Pumps were running most of the night. They were operating from 10.30PM last night until around 10AM this morning, and for one period of time, from 12.30AM till 9AM (eight and a half hours) working at maximum and drawing around 750MW from the grid, in an effort to get all that water back up so they can run it back downhill again this afternoon and evening when power costs will undoubtedly skyrocket like they did at that peak time last evening.
As I have said all along this pumped hydro is not NEW power as they consume more power pumping it up the hill than they generate coming back down the hill. It’s all a money making exercise, buying the power to pump during the night at around $50/MWH and selling it at an average of around $300 an hour during the peak. So they spend around $450,000 to pump it up the hill and get around $1.5 Million generating it during the peak period they were operational. Rinse and repeat overnight and again this afternoon/evening.
At that peak time of 5PM, and of that total hydro power of 6210MW, just the three big plants alone, this pumped hydro plant at Tumut 3, Upper Tumut and the huge Murray One and Two complex were delivering 3593MW of that total, so 57.9% from these three plants and the remaining 42% from the other ….. 45 hydro plants.
Tony.
110
Tony can you explain this to us here in SA ?
From the Fin Review:
“South Australia was cut off from the rest of the National Electricity Market, while the Australian Energy Market Operator urgently called on Victorians to minimise their electricity use on a sweltering Friday afternoon as the summer power crisis hit home.”
20
The Heywood interconnector was down yesterday. Not sure why.
10
Greens aren’t happy with this gas deal.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/nsw-strikes-landmark-energy-deal-with-federal-government/11916314
30
Statistically six out of seven greens aren’t happy .
40
Sure it’s not 97%?
10
So bloody what ?
Who cares what the Greens think ?
20
Its important to know your enemy, they are walking amongst us and have the MSM in their pocket. This time Morrison has them cornered, the lower middle class is desperate for cheap gas and the greens object. Political idjits.
20
Ridiculous claims about methane being more “dangerous” than CO2. If they really believed this claim, then they wouldn’t be so vocal about CO2 and instead focus on methane as the major problem.
20
I’m trying to get my head around all this. There seem to be 3 credible ‘conspiracies’, happily using global warming as a wedge – 2 of them to line their own nests, and the Marxists as part of their attempt to destroy the West, leaving themselves, with their bureaucratic organizing abilities, the power they crave.
The Greta article can be skipped down 2/3, to where it names big financial interests, slavering to get their hands on trillions in sovereign wealth and pension funds. Actually the foundation article from 2016, that a bunch of people have been diligently implementing, is pretty interesting reading. Now it’s nice to be seeing such spontaneous actions!
And Tony Heller putting some more figures on the mother lode that climate scientists have stumbled upon.
If they manage to silence the scepticle, the scientists would be shoved aside, leaving a real cat fight between the Marxists, and the Capitalists. If there’s anything left to fight over. Naked power vs naked greed. Something to really look forward to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsNz2OkeoDA
https://nexusnewsfeed.com/article/climate-ecology/the-manufacturing-of-greta-thunberg-part-4-house-is-on-fire-100-trillion-rescue
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LniibBWEKPw
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Douglas Murray made a very telling point in the first video, about the fact that for major issues, a country can’t consult our universities, as their professors just don’t have the answers any more.
10
Tales of the quake: Sinkholes, jellyfish and diving
Lee Bush, a dive instructor and boat captain at Reef Divers, was 40 feet underwater when he experienced his first earthquake in Cayman.
He and three other divers were at Sandhole Reef when it struck.
Lee Bush said the rumble he felt go through his body built up for about 25 seconds.
“It started off really slowly, it’s like a great crescendo.
At that point, all the fish from the top of the reef just came straight off the wall and down, and just behind that, it looked like all the sand was coming off as well,” he said.
He added that the visibility in front of him went from about 100 feet to just three or four feet.
“It looked like fog rolling over mountains, the sand just came through everything and then it just literally covered everything,” he said.
“In 10 years of diving, I’ve never experienced anything like that whatsoever.
Never seen fish behaviour like that, never seen the way the sand moved like that, and never felt that real deep rumble before.”
https://www.caymancompass.com/2020/01/29/tales-of-the-quake-sinkholes-jellyfish-and-diving/
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the royal “we” is ok at The Conversation:
31 Jan: TheConversation: We have the vaccine for climate disinformation – let’s use it
by Stephan Lewandowsky, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, University of Bristol
John Hunter. University Associate, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania
Disclosure statement
Stephan Lewandowsky receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Volkswagen Foundation, and the ESRC (via CREST).
John Hunter has received funding from the Department of Climate Change and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, and was previously employed by the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC based at the University of Tasmania. He is a member of Climate Tasmania, an expert body set up to replace the Tasmanian Climate Action Council, which was disbanded by the Tasmanian government in 2014.
Australia’s recent bushfire crisis will be remembered for many things – not least, the tragic loss of life, property and landscape. But one other factor made it remarkable: the deluge of disinformation spread by climate deniers.
As climate change worsens – and with it, the bushfire risk – it’s well worth considering how to protect the public against disinformation campaigns in future fire seasons…READ ON
http://theconversation.com/we-have-the-vaccine-for-climate-disinformation-lets-use-it-130008
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Propaganda for the cognoscenti !
Plain bullsh$t
As just about anyone who lives in the bush knows and will tell you
The key issue is the lack of fuel reduction and this puppery peice does not even try to deny that.
The Greenists and their bull have scared and burned out a lot of people in the bush
I don’t think many people will forget in a hurry !
The key message must be a simple one
Bush people to look after the bush
And push the greenist academic ‘experts’
Out of the bush back to their inner city cafe latee ghettos !
30
29 Jan: MichaelMann.net: The STORY about the ‘business as usual’ story is misleading
By Michael E. Mann
A new commentary (LINK) in the journal Nature by Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peters is making the rounds today.
The commentary is similar in content and outlook to a previous piece written by Hausfather on the website of the “Breakthrough Institute” a month ago, arguing that “business as usual” burning of fossil fuels will likely only lead to 3C warming, rather than the considerably higher range of 3-5C warming typically cited based on past IPCC projections. The latter piece was relied upon heavily in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed (LINK) by Breakthrough Institute founder Ted Nordhaus that is highly dismissive of the need for rapid reduction in global carbon emissions. The new piece has predictably led to some distorted headlines, for example this one by the BBC (LINK): “Climate change: Worst emissions scenario ‘misleading’ ” which, itself, is ironically rather misleading.
Let me provide some context and caveats about this new commentary. First of all, it is just that–a commentary, not a peer-reviewed scientific article. That must be kept in mind by anyone somehow thinking this overthrows conventional scientific thinking. It doesn’t. It’s basically an opinion piece…READ ON
https://www.michaelmann.net/content/story-about-%E2%80%98business-usual%E2%80%99-story-misleading
TWEET: Roger Pielke Jr
Michael Mann tries to generate some outrage over @hausfath & @Peters_Glen but doesn’t really get there … weak tea
29 Jan 2020
https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1222682642308448256
more recent tweets on the same top on Pielke Jr’s main Twitter page.
00
Being amateur, what I don’t get is how an assessment / guess is made about what any temperature change
might be over the next 100years, when the CO2 theory of warming is not based on proof, but opinion. Do
those running the failed computer systems on which this is all based really believe what they get from
failed software that can’t give today’s climate when fed all yesteryear’s data findings? How can a
scientist or mathematician say they believe the rubbish they generate when they know the basis of everything
is false? If I was a fifth grade student and gave an answer to a question that derived from a computer that
I knew couldn’t add 1+1, would my answer be regarded as correct by the teacher simply because that’s what the
class computers came up with. I don’t get it! Has the world gone mad?
80
Yes.
90
DOC they can tell the temperature in a hundred years to the nearest hundredth of a degree if you believe them .
30
Oi, Oi.
The predictions are almost as accurate as tree ring assessments of temperatures of yore.
20
Yes.
There is the classic case of ‘computer says no’.
I remember going for some agricultural spare parts where I could see the parts were on a shelf behind the shop assistant.
He looked at the computer and said the parts were not in stock and it took an age to convince him that the parts were actually there.
20
I recall the opposite – when the computer claimed that there were 3 pails of blue paint in stock. The customer drove 24 km. twice only to be told there was none in stock. On the third occasion he rang the chemist who went down and found that there weren’t, but tinted 3 pails up to the required colour and invoiced the customer for 3 pails of BLUE.
That night the (main frame) computer had a fit and crashed. It was trying to divide by zero. The computer had been set to up-date the stock ONLY when an order was received and only then was stock was allowed to be made. A classic case of someone only aware of the first part of Pareto’s Principle.
The chemist was made redundant and later started with a small company in competition. The purchaser switched all his business to him and that wasn’t a few pails, more like 2 truckloads at a time. And he wasn’t the only one.
00
further attempts to shut down … everyone but themselves!
29 Jan: TechCrunch: Study of YouTube comments finds evidence of (far-right) radicalization effect
by Natasha Lomas
(Natasha has freelanced forThe Guardian and the BBC. Natasha holds a First Class degree in English from Cambridge University, and an MA in journalism from Goldsmiths College, University of London)
Research presented at the ACM FAT 2020 (LINK) conference in Barcelona today supports the notion that YouTube’s platform is playing a role in radicalizing users via exposure to far-right ideologies.
The study, carried out by researchers at Switzerland’s Ecole polytechnique fédérale de Lausanne and the Federal University of Minas Gerais in Brazil, found evidence that users who engaged with a middle ground of extreme right-wing content migrated to commenting on the most fringe far-right content.
A March 2018 New York Times (LINK) article by sociologist Zeynep Tufekci set out the now widely reported thesis that YouTube is a radicalization engine. Followup reporting (LINK) by journalist Kevin Roose told a compelling tale of the personal experience of an individual, Caleb Cain, who described falling down an “alt right rabbit hole” on YouTube. But researcher Manoel Horta Ribeiro, who was presenting the paper today, said the team wanted to see if they could find auditable evidence to support such anecdotes.
Their paper, called “Auditing radicalization pathways on YouTube (LINK),” details a large-scale study of YouTube looking for traces of evidence — in likes, comments and views — that certain right-leaning YouTube communities are acting as gateways to fringe far-right ideologies.
Per the paper, they analyzed 330,925 videos posted on 349 channels — broadly classifying the videos into four types: Media, the Alt-lite, the Intellectual Dark Web (IDW) and the Alt-right — and using user comments as a “good enough” proxy for radicalization (their data set included 72 million comments)…
4 COMMENTS:
Ernest Liu
This article has very general statements with no supporting numbers to back it from the linked research, and therefore not particularly enlightening.
Seeing as the research only researched the “right,” it’s likely to be conducted and interpreted with major political bias. What about the left and the radicalization there? Some would argue it’s even more radical. Do we “blame” YouTube for that as well?…
Ernest Liu
A further concern – I recall seeing more responses than (3) on this post. I wonder if comments and replies are being deleted. Hmmm…
https://techcrunch.com/2020/01/28/study-of-youtube-comments-finds-evidence-of-radicalization-effect/
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31 Jan: Fox News: Ex-Trump aide Carter Page files suit against DNC over dossier: ‘This is only the first salvo’
By Brooke Singman
EXCLUSIVE: Former Trump campaign adviser Carter Page filed a lawsuit Thursday in federal court against the Democratic National Committee, law firm Perkins Coie and its partners tied to the funding of the unverified dossier that served as the basis for highly controversial surveillance warrants against him.
The suit was filed in U.S. District Court in the Northern District of Illinois’ Eastern Division Thursday morning, and was described by his attorneys as the “first of multiple actions in the wake of historic” Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) abuse…
“This is a first step to ensure that the full extent of the FISA abuse that has occurred during the last few years is exposed and remedied,” attorney John Pierce said Thursday. “Defendants and those they worked with inside the federal government did not and will not succeed in making America a surveillance state.”
He added: “This is only the first salvo. We will follow the evidence wherever it leads, no matter how high. … The rule of law will prevail.”…
The document was authored by ex-British intelligence officer Christopher Steele, commissioned by opposition research firm Fusion GPS, and funded by the DNC and Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign through law firm Perkins Coie…
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ex-trump-aide-carter-page-files-suit-against-dnc-over-dossier-this-is-only-the-first-salvo
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Am still wondering if the Trump team are planning to resurrect the Nunes Memo issues just before the election.
00
30 Jan: AmericanThinker: Warming and the Snows of Yesteryear
By Gregory Wrightstone
I was recently reminded of one of the most common misconceptions about our changing climate that is often accepted as fact by climate skeptics and true believers alike. Last week a commentary (LINK) written by a fellow geologist and colleague lamented the less snow and cold in recent winters compared to the winters of his youth in Kentucky in the 1950s and 60s…
This nearly universally held belief that even the most skeptical of us tend to believe is “warming by recollection.” Virtually every person from snowy climes claims that winters today are nothing like they were when they were a child. This recollection reinforces the thought that we are experiencing global warming within our own lifetime. Never mind that the slight warming of ~0.6 oF (0.3 oC) that a typical 45-year-old may have experienced since that big snowfall when he was five years old is much too slight to be recognizable by anyone.
Before I looked at the actual data on the subject, I also believed that the snow of my youth in Pennsylvania exceeded any of recent decades. My research into snowfall records for my hometown of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, showed that my memory of snowfalls past was quite flawed. Snowfall here had been on the rise, rather than in decline.
Further examination from around the country revealed that this was not the exception, but the rule, as snow has generally been on the increase dating back many decades. My colleague’s recollection was equally flawed and records indicate that five of the top ten snowiest Februarys in his hometown of Lexington, Kentucky, had occurred since 1975!..
Increasing snow is not isolated to random sites in the United States but confirmed using data from the Rutgers Global Snow Lab (GSL) that reveal snow cover both in North America and across the northern hemisphere have been increasing…READ ON
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/warming_and_the_snows_of_yesteryear.html
22 Mar 2019: St. Augustine Record: Spring breakers flock to St. Augustine to escape cold winter temps
by Colleen Jones
With a longer, colder winter in many other parts of the country, the last few weeks have brought tourists — including spring breakers — out in droves along the Florida coast…
27 Feb 2019: Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Not everyone is sick of winter — in Wisconsin, backyard ice rinks make cold weather worth it
by Lainey Seyler
It’s almost March, and while some of us are dreaming of summer, others are relishing this weather — because a longer, colder winter means more time on that backyard ice rink…
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pat:
I recall a cartoon showing a young boy waist deep in snow, then as he got older knee deep, then as an adult ankle deep in snow saying “snow used to be so high when I was young, now it is hardly there. It proves that the climate has warmed”.
10
Nsw just hit $12,700,00 for power and I’m not sure more extension cords will do anything .
30
30 Jan: WSJ: Microsoft Strives for a Carbon-Free Future. A Setback in Fargo Shows the Hard Reality.
Software giant ran diesel generators to power its North Dakota campus due to forces it couldn’t control on the day of its bold climate pledge
By Russell Gold
Hours after Microsoft Corp. pledged to eliminate its carbon emissions within a decade earlier this month, the company was forced to fire up fossil fuel generators to power its corporate campus in Fargo, N.D.
The software giant ran the diesel-burning machines for about five hours to keep the lights and heat on for 1,600 employees. It is one of about 100 big companies in the Fargo region ordered to do so by the local electric cooperative, which faced high demand for power. Microsoft receives a significant discount on its electricity rates in exchange for using backup power a few times a year.
The discharges were tiny relative to Microsoft’s ambitious climate goals, which include switching to 100% renewable energy in five years and eliminating by 2050 all the greenhouse-gas emissions it has produced since its founding in 1975. But they demonstrate a larger point: Corporations face a monumental challenge in living up to their climate pledges if they are reliant on other companies for energy.
Lucas Joppa, Microsoft’s chief environmental officer, said he is confident the company can meet its goals but understands it will be difficult. He expects stumbles along the way.
“No one should have their head in the sand” about the difficulty of the energy transformation for the global economy, Mr. Joppa said. Microsoft, he added, was “investing heavily in alternative backup options” that will allow it to get rid of its diesel generators…
https://www.wsj.com/articles/microsoft-strives-for-a-carbon-free-future-a-setback-in-fargo-shows-the-hard-reality-11580380200
20
Saw on another website reports that everyone’s favourite unemployed high school drop out is trying to trade mark both her name and ‘Fridays for Future’.
Or probably more correctly, her father is.
61
Global warming has definitely changed both the climate and the environment. Some 20,000 years ago Boston had 1.25 km of ice covering it. That has all disappeared and I for one am grateful.
80
Adelaide hospital forced to start generators as power goes into critical , can anyone confirm this .
30
Yes:
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia/royal-adelaide-hospital-operating-on-generator-power/news-story/793fdd915aa67dc6d2358dafaeb22c81
20
Why? The Yesterday the SA alarmist commenters in The Oz were all claiming that SA was doing fine on its own Was that the truth, or was SA also suffering power shortages?
20
Extension cord into Victoriastan went down along with 10 high tension wire towers as a result of a storm in western Victoriastan.
30
Looks like one interconnector is still down but can no longer find the news post about the downed towers , might have been fake news .
10
The Australian says 7 towers were blown over in the storm yesterday taking out the interconnector but you’d reckon it would have made the news in a big way .
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/victorians-told-to-urgently-cut-electricity-use-as-heat-soars/news-story/66254e12b0639b6a45fac1e8e0ce00b6?fbclid=IwAR1LJfl-5u4APa6OBlNkZxrm8WkyXN9zJQsyDqSW3F5Mu5fsAD3HK0iNnLg
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Confirmed with video on everning news. 7 pylons ‘blown’ over. Curiously it was Victoria that suffered despite normally generating a surplus – see TonyfromOz elsewhere for confirmation that ALL their brown coal units were running flat out. Despite NOT having to export to SA the aluminium plant at Portland was “shut down”** and appeals made for Victorians to reduce electricity usage.
SA more or less made its way through. The main hospital in Adelaide had to start its emergency diesel generator, but the day (Friday) was cooler and very wet. Port Lincoln got 68 m.m. rain in less than an hour and lost electricity for some hours.
My landline has been down since Tuesday for unexplained reasons. I am waiting for someone to blame ClimateChange©.
**presumably continuing with enough heating to prevent the pots solidifying and thus avoiding damages claims.
20
Michael Mann recently gave a lecture at UniNSW
http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/events/michael-mann-absence-internal-multidecadal-and-interdecadal-oscillations-climate-model
It would be really interesting to know what he said.
‘For several decades the existence of interdecadal and multidecadal internal climate oscillations has been asserted by numerous studies based on analyses of historical observations, paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations. Here we use a combination of observational data and state-of-the-art forced and control climate model simulations to demonstrate the absence of consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that are distinguishable from climatic noise. Only variability in the interannual range associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is found to be distinguishable from the noise background. A distinct (40–50 year timescale) spectral peak that appears in global surface temperature observations appears to reflect the response of the climate system to both anthropogenic and natural forcing rather than any intrinsic internal oscillation.’
In the past the ENSO was assumed by models to cancel out over time.
Presumably because that was the only assumption that could be made due to lack of data.
Models are used here, presumably, to validate that ENSO cancels out over time.
I wonder whether code etc will be made available so the data can be cleaned from homogenisation , error bars added and the determinations be re run.
This happened with the ‘hockey stick’ forecast.
One wonders if this climate science is better than that mark.
Again, noting a ‘spectral peak’ makes one wonder it Dr Mann has found the elusive feedback, so badly needed to keep his models from running badly hot.
It may explain why our oceans have never boiled away.
10
Has anyone ever walked through a fog, or walked up a tall mountain through a cloud and seen these micro-droplets that the cloud is made out of? I think most of you have. And I have. And I’ve watched these micro-drops very closely. The great poet said “I’ve looked at clouds from both sides now. From up and down. But still somehow….”
I’ve walked through these clouds. The little drops don’t rub up against each-other if its static electricity we want. I’ve seen them. They keep their distance as if repelled by an “unknown” (ho ho) force. But the other thing is to be a greenhouse gas you want to capture that thermal energy and force it to drop lower
What greenhouse substance would be better than micronised water droplets to actually create warming? If no secondary force is acting upon them they ought to release their enthalpy and drop. Hot tiny droplets reversing the commonplace understanding that heat rises and in doing so acting like a greenhouse gas ought ot.
That would make micronised liquid water the ideal greenhouse substance. If the water vapour could release its energy of evaporation or itsenthalpy and the micro-water could drop down down down down only to evaporate before it hit the ground. Then that would be an idealised greenhouse gas because it would capture the thermal joules and pull them downward.
But thats not what we see is it? And if we don’t see that and the droplets suspend, could it be that they are in non-cloud form accepting electrical energy in an inbetween way? Neither as an insulator, thus creating stormy winds, nor as a fantastic conductor, thus solving the problem without drama. What if a column saturated air, without a cloud in sight, is leading to that sort of electrical conduction that creates heat.
But further to this, this is one of these special situations where I do in fact agree with greenhouse. For complicated reasons. I agree with water vapour causing greenhouse warming in the tropics because in the tropics a new parcel of saturated air doesn’t necessarily go straight up. But Cycles presented me with a situation of an whole column of saturated air that was akin to my model of the tropics. So the same assumptions would apply and we could pay some level of greenhouse effect in that situation if we aren’t being bloodyminded.
Why do the micro-drops suspend? See the whole situation we need to think far more deeply about. When I have to backpeddle, by my own admission, 70% I’m not saying that Cycles is 100% right and I’m 100% wrong. I’m saying that I was being blinkered and we need to think far more deeply about this situation. And its not up to me because I am not a professional.
20
We have to say that the water is suspended (if the droplets are indeed suspended) by electrical means. In every last case. But it can be particularly obvious in big black clouds with these huge juicy drops that they are suspended by electrical energy. Because after the first lightning and the thunderclap, often thats when gravity takes over and the suspended anti-gravity water falls down on our heads.
20
If airborne micro-drops of water actually fell in accordance with gravity, and yet caught enough energy to evaporate before they got to the ground then airborne micro-drops would seem to be the ideal greenhouse substance. They could drift down even though they were warmer than the air surrounding them. Are there even smaller droplets than those in the fog that act this way and toggle between water and water vapour? I don’t think anyone is looking. Tiny water droplets don’t seem to fall even on average. They defy gravity. White clouds defy gravity. If there wasn’t electrical energy involved the droplets in the white clouds would have to fall. Just on average and even if very slowly. They seem to be suspended by the earths electric field. Which means they must be ionised or aligned in some way on the molecular level, which means they could conduct.
I had always thought that evaporation was the ultimate air conditioner. Say for example if we spent a thousand years hydrating the continent. And we had trees around the water features and grasses throughout the inland. We would never get a heatwave. Because that hot wind blowing in from the north-west would pick up all this transpired water from the plants and there would be a cooling effect so that the temperature would likely never break 38 degrees. So in this situation the water vapour is a cooler. Definitely during the day it is a cooler. We must remember that the Siddons moon information tells us that we don’t have a heat anomaly that greenhouse is needed to fill. My step-daugters grandfather built a restaurant near Chiang Mai and towering above this restaurant is shade-cloth where water runs down but evaporates before it hits the ground. The refrigerant effect of this is astonishing. Its almost unbelievable. Like practicing witchcraft.
So the situation is that where a parcel of water vapour-laced air has special buoyancy the water vapour is a cooling factor. A refrigeration factor. But consider the tropics or somewhere that the air is already reliably full of water vapour? Then that parcel of air doesn’t necessarily rise. Or if it does another one just like it falls. Lets say we can break the ecological niches down to about 14 separate niches. My understanding is that the paleo record is telling us that when the planet heats up its as though the equatorial tropical zone is expanding and pushing the other 13 niches north and south, and up the mountains. Its as though everything is being driven by the tropical zones expanding and shrinking. If a parcel of water vapour does not head upwards its no longer acting like a refrigerant.
Cycles has talked about the idea of a whole column of saturated air but with no clouds as being this powerful heating situation which he says is all about greenhouse. If I’m interpreting right. Well you’d have to admit that if the whole column of air, and lets imagine it goes almost all the way up to the top of the troposphere …. well then the refrigeration effect of evaporation is going to be nullified just like my thinking of the tropics. So I think when this happens you get rapid buildup of joules. I don’t think its just about greenhouse. I think better conduction of electrical energy from the stratosphere will be a part of the story.
But there is this thing about temperature. Temperature tells us the direction of thermal energy transfer, and how much more energy that parcel of air can absorb. So that 36 degree air in the tropics probably has more thermal energy imbedded than 50 degree air in the Sahara. I say this because of the latent heat of evaporation. But the tropics can keep absorbing energy because of the lower apparent temperature than in the desert. And the desert heat will be lost quickly overnight.
I think its this schizophrenic function of water vapour that is driving everything. Notice that when the planet is warmer the severity of storms is less severe. I think thats the water vapour helping conduction of electrical energy so that the voltage difference between the ionosphere and the deep earth isn’t working itself out as much in terms of kinetic energy. So what I’m saying is that water vapour is usually a net cooler. But its bipolar. Its a bipolar situation and any runaway global warming could only be about expanding the tropics. As powerful as the joule buildup would be we are talking about a situation where even more of the planet is unlikely to break 38 degrees. Because thats how the tropics works. Thats how water vapour works. When the planet heats up the tropics don’t heat up. They just expand.
10
Being as there is no temperature anomaly to explain it all becomes context-driven. But I want to condense my latest set of screeds down to a bumper-sticker:
Understanding how the climate works both currently and historically means coming to grips with the schizophrenic role of water vapour. That would be my take-home story. If we are not getting this idea we are not really understanding the situation.
20
I can condense it further so you can tell all your friends:
Water Vapour Schizophrenia Is The Essence Of Climate Science.
20
Does anything more need saying.
An epic water story for our times.
10
Thats about it Keith. If people understood these things we could all save ourselves a lot of grief and money. Now we have to get serious about hydrating this continent.
20
how a Murdoch “journo” can become a fave at theirABC:
AUDIO: 6m59s: 1 Feb: ABC The Science Show: A journalist’s view of The Australian’s anti-science, anti-climate change campaign
By Robyn Williams
Leigh Dayton was Science Writer at The Australian newspaper from 2002 to 2012. She suggests her acceptance of climate science was part of the reason her career with the newspaper ended. Here she shares her view of when and why The Australian developed its anti-science stance and its rejection of climate science and the role of humans in our changing climate.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/a-journalist%E2%80%99s-view-of-the-australian%E2%80%99s-anti-science,-anti-clim/11918228
10
EnvironmentalResearchLetters: Changing rapid weather variability increases influenza epidemic risk in a warming climate
Qi Liu, Zhe-Min Tan, Jie Sun, Yayi Hou, Congbin Fu and Zhaohua Wu
Accepted Manuscript online 28 January 2020
Download PDF
Abstract
The continuing change of the Earth’s climate is believed to affect the influenza viral activity and transmission in the coming decades. However, a consensus of the severity of the risk of influenza epidemic in a warming climate has not been reached. It was previously reported that the warmer winter can reduce influenza epidemic-caused mortality, but this relation cannot explain the deadly influenza epidemic in many countries over northern mid-latitudes in the winter of 2017-2018, one of the warmest winters in recent decades.
Here we reveal that the widely spread 2017-2018 influenza epidemic can be attributed to the abnormally strong rapid weather variability. We demonstrate, from historical data, that the large rapid weather variability in autumn can precondition the deadly influenza epidemic in the subsequent months in highly populated northern mid-latitudes; and the influenza epidemic season of 2017-2018 was a typical case.
We further show that climate model projections reach a consensus that the rapid weather variability in autumn will continue to strengthen in some regions of northern mid-latitudes in a warming climate, implying that the risk of influenza epidemic may increase 20% to 50% in some highly populated regions in later 21st century…
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab70bc
CDC: Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2017–2018 influenza season
Page last reviewed: November 22, 2019
The overall burden of influenza for the 2017-2018 season was an estimated 45 million influenza illnesses, 21 million influenza-associated medical visits, 810,000 influenza-related hospitalizations, and 61,000 influenza-associated deaths…
Q: Can you explain why the estimates on this page are different from previously published and reported estimates for 2017-2018? (For example, total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000)?
A: The estimates on this page have been updated from an earlier report published in December 2018 based on more recently available information…
The 2017-2018 estimates are still preliminary because not all of the required data are currently available…
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
Dec 13, 2017: Press release: CDC: Seasonal flu death estimate increases worldwide
According to new estimates published today, between 291,000 and 646,000 people worldwide die from seasonal influenza-related respiratory illnesses each year, higher than a previous estimate of 250,000 to 500,000 and based on a robust, multinational survey.
The new estimate, from a collaborative study by CDC and global health partners, appears today in The Lancet. The estimate excludes deaths during pandemics…
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html
00
“It’s the FUEL LOAD, Stupid!”
A rare bipartisanship between Liberal and Labor in State Governments. SA’s Steven Marshall is the latest in the conga-line of premiers past and present deflecting any responsibility for the catastrophic fires onto the broad shoulders of climate change, thus absolving themselves from any blame for the misguided management of public bushland, or the hobbles placed on any landowner, large or small, who seeks to reduce fire risks.
Yet again, with the ACT now in a State of Emergency (“Bushfires: ACT declares state of emergency, NSW South Coast braces” The Australian online 31/1), we hear again that nothing much has been done in relation to fuel hazard reduction since Canberra’s last catastrophic fires in 2003. That’s sixteen years of very little action or management. The tale is the same in Victoria, with the Alpine fires.
Fuel feeds fires. Increased CO2 makes for faster growth, especially of grasses and other C4 efficient species, but that in itself magnifies the case for a return to the proven forest management approaches in hazard reduction thrown away by the late 1990s. Reducing Australia’s emissions is a feel-good non-solution that will not stop the fuel mass growing.
Do we need to issue bumper stickers and desk signs to all our politicians and public land managers, a la Bill Clinton, shouting “It’s the fuel load, stupid!”?
30
calling TonyFromOz –
Bill In Oz – comment #7 on “Friday Open Thread” wrote –
“A coal fired generator has shut down in the Latrobe Valley” etc
and included the following ABC link. however, this article has been updated & has nothing about a coal fired generator shut down. was it in the original?
31 Jan: ABC: Victoria heatwave settles in for second day as humidity builds, bushfire risk increases
Updated about 11 hours ago
Scorching weather has brought blackouts, bushfires and tropical humidity to Victoria amid warnings of more wild weather to come including a possible repeat of last week’s hail, mud rain and flash flooding…
Victorians were asked to reduce their energy usage until about 8:00pm by avoiding using appliances such as dishwashers and washing machines and temporarily switching off pool pumps.
The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said damage to multiple transmission towers in western Victoria, extremely high demand related to the heat, and multiple generation outages were causing problems for the energy network.
“The loss of additional generation capacity or transmission outages in either state, may result in the need for rotational load-shedding across both Victoria and NSW,” a statement said.
Supply to the Portland smelter, the biggest energy user in the state, was affected…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-31/victoria-heatwave-high-fire-risk-january-31/11916302
yesterday on ABC, I heard news item about Matt Kean’s call on the public to lower energy demand, and ABC claimed 3 ageing coal-fired plants were on unscheduled shut-downs. Liddell and two others I forget were named.
today, I heard the same call to lower demand on ABC News Radio, but it didn’t mention the coal fired plant bit.
1 Feb: news.com.au: NSW bracing for blistering heatwave with temperatures set to soar past 40 degrees
by Emilia Mazza, AAP
As well as fire warnings in place for much of the state, NSW residents are being advised to stay indoors and where possible cut their power usage.
NSW Energy Minister Matt Kean is asking households and businesses to reduce their load on the state’s electricity grid, especially between 5pm and 9pm.
“The tight conditions in the electricity system in NSW, the ACT and Victoria are as a result of heatwave conditions causing consistent high demand, damage to transmission infrastructure in Victoria and mechanical problems at a number of the state’s coal fired power station, Mr Kean told The Sydney Morning Herald…READ ON
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/nsw-bracing-for-blistering-heatwave-with-temperatures-set-to-soar-past-40-degrees/news-story/a81bd437fcac62553280a72b676e5d1a
31 Jan: SMH: ‘The big heat day’: NSW residents urged to stay indoors, reduce load on electricity grid
By Lucy Cormack
NSW Energy Minister Matt Kean called on households and businesses to minimise their electricity usage where possible, especially between 5pm and 9pm.
“The tight conditions in the electricity system in NSW, the ACT and Victoria are as a result of heatwave conditions causing consistent high demand, damage to transmission infrastructure in Victoria and mechanical problems at a number of the state’s coal fired power stations,” Mr Kean said.
He urged consumers to close blinds, switch off non-essential appliances and pool pumps and set airconditioners to a minimum of 24 degrees in occupied rooms only.
The Australian Energy Market Operator confirmed emergency services had been activiated in both Victoria and NSW on Friday night because of damage to multiple transmission towers.
In a statement AEMO said loss of additional generation capacity or transmission outages could result in the need for rotational controlled load shedding in Victoria and NSW, however this was an “absolute last resort.”…READ ON
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/the-big-heat-day-nsw-urged-to-stay-indoors-amid-soaring-weekend-temperatures-20200131-p53wll.html
31 Jan: MirageNews: NSW energy consumers asked to reduce demand over next two days
Mr Kean called on consumers to take some simple steps to reduce electricity demand this afternoon including:
◾closing blinds, doors and windows to keep the heat out
◾switching off non-essential appliances or those not in use
◾turning off the pool pump if you have a pool
◾delaying using appliances such as washing machines, dishwashers and dryers until after 9pm
◾setting air conditioners to a minimum of 24 degrees, and only using air conditioners in occupied rooms.
“The peak period for power use in NSW is expected to last until 9pm today, according to the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), and we’re asking consumers to reduce their demand where possible and safe to do so…
“With the community and the Government working together during this period of extreme weather we can help minimise disruption to the energy grid,” Mr Kean said…
https://www.miragenews.com/nsw-energy-consumers-asked-to-reduce-demand-over-next-two-days/
TonyFromOz – what’s the truth about 3 coal fired plants having to shut down?
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Just once (and one time would be enough for me) I would like to see a journalist at one of these media briefings get on his his feet and call ‘Bull$h1t’ on statements like this, but you see, that’s the whole point here. Journalists know journalism, so when it comes to something like this, they have absolutely no idea at all, not just on what is being told to them, but where to go to even check the truth of the matter, so, whoever is making the statement knows this, and they can get away with saying whatever they want to say, knowing that (a) no one is going to call them out on the spot and (b) no one will bother checking if what they say is true, and (c) once having said it, it’s out there already, and if anyone even bothers to check, then that will be at a much later date and time, so easily glossed over or as usual, never even reported at all.
Here’s the actual state of play from yesterday Friday, incidentally, far and away the largest power consumption for ONE DAY in Australia’s history, at a total of 727GWH (at an hourly average of 30290MWH) and the day of highest power consumption before that was the day before, Thursday.
In Victoria, there are ten coal fired Units. All ten of them were on line delivering almost 4650MW in a straight line across the 24 hours. Unit 3 at Loy Yang A, went off line on Thursday afternoon in the mid afternoon, but after being off line for only nine hours, came back on line at 1.30AM, so all ten Units were delivering in Victoria.
In NSW, two Units were off line. Mt. Piper Unit 2 has been off line for weeks already. Liddell Unit 1 went off line on Monday or Tuesday, and has not come back yet, so they (also) knew that was off line. Unit 4 at Bayswater has been off line for weeks, and it came back on line at 10AM yesterday. So, of the 16 Units in NSW, 14 of them were on line delivering power.
In Queensland, Unit 4 at Gladstone has been off line for weeks already. There was one failure at the Callide Plant, Unit 3 at 10AM. So, of the 22 Units in Qld, two of them were off line.
So, as to ‘aging’ coal fired PLANTS failing, actually two UNITS of them came back on line during the day. After the usual rise from the overnight low, (and yesterday morning that Base Load was 21700MW, a full 3700MW higher than the year round average of 18000MW) coal fired power reached 18500MW at 6.30AM and stayed at that level rising on occasions to 18900MW, but never falling lower than 18500MW, and it stayed there until just prior to 11PM, for FIFTEEN AND A HALF HOURS, at or around maximum power delivery for those coal fired Units.
So, contrary to what that
talkingmumbling head told the sycophant journalists, it was in fact almost the direct opposite.At the 6PM evening peak, when there was all but ZERO rooftop Solar power, total power consumption was ….. 35,000MW. Coal fired power was delivering just under 54% (only that low because the overall was so high, but that total coal fired component was 18800MW) Wind power was delivering 5.2%, so, a little less than ONE TENTH of coal fired power. Hydro was delivering a whopping (for hydro anyway) 5700MW, (16.3%) solar plant power 1.8% and the rest from gas fired power, which had ramped up to its highest in ages of around 22%.
So, where you read that ancient coal fired
PLANTSUnits failed the grid, the opposite was in fact the truth. Coal fired power held the grid up.And pat, that’s the truth here.
Tony.
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TonyFromOz –
many thanks as always.
I had been reading your updates in recent days, and couldn’t reconcile what you were detailing with what I heard on ABC.
however, I could not, and still cannot, find a document on ABC to confirm what I heard! and, as I said earlier, they cut out the coal-fired plants stuff when they did a similar report on ABC New Radio (it is toxic) this morning.
it is truly shameful what the MSM is doing…on behalf of private RE companies. that is not their job.
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You are so correct Pat it is shamefull the way that our media twists the truth.
Talk about impeaching Donald Trump; We should be impeaching the ABC for misleading the Australian public.
GeoffW
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Thanks Tony for putting the facts straight. We are fed so many ‘untruths’ from the media in this country. Hopefully skynews with Credlin will this up . .
GeoffW
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the ABC Country Breakfast staff are back from their tax-payer funded holiday. BEGAN the following audio for their first program with 1m25s of CAGW propaganda.
ABC: bushfires; heatwave; dairy farmer Robert Miller, fire has come back on his property 4 times; crisis; daughters not sure they’ll continue with dairy.
MILLER: they love the farm but…with climate change. since 1960s temperature has gone up 1 degree, since turn of the century it’s gone up 1.6 degrees…drought…the climate is changing. we have to have policy in place.
listen to first 1m25s:
AUDIO: 10m18s: 1 Feb: ABC Country Breakfast: Rural news highlights
with Edwina Farley (and another)
High fire alert every day for dairy farmer
Dairy farmer Robert Miller’s property at Milton on the South Coast of NSW was overrun by fire in a matter of minutes during the New Years bushfire crisis.
Tragically, that came after many years of battling drought.
But what’s truly shocked Robert and his wife Carey-Ann is that they’ve been continually fighting the threat of fire on their farm ever since.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/countrybreakfast/rural-news-february-1/11913298
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They’ve seen the writing on the wall and are angling for
a Government Bailout to leave the Industry.
The ABC is going to go hard on the End Of Meat this year.
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BOM is down hope outage not too serious.
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