JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
A few days ago I posted a short discussion about the Duality of Light, particle and wave. The two phenomena cannot be considered at the same time.
I find that rather confrontational and maybe unnecessary.
Seven phenomena are observed ;
Light travels in straight lines
Reflection
Refraction
Interference
Diffraction
Polarization
Photoelectric effect
The wave theory explains six of the observations so well. The particle model seems to do a poor job of the last one, the photo electric effect. I wondered why physicists had not tried harder to explain the photo electric effect using the wave model.
KK and Andrew McCrae replied. KK asked where is this going and Andrew gave me a reference to the photo electric effect.
Thanks KK and Andy,
Where is this going? It is really just me ruminating about physics and the Greenhouse Theory. That leads me to unconventional ideas sometimes. In this case the light photon. Without photons there would be no need to consider back radiation from radiative gases which are supposed to keep the surface of the Earth warmer than it would be if themradiative gases were not here. As far as I know there is no experimental evidence to support that theory!
Andrew, I do not know of any experiments which show light peaks from interference causing speedier electrons from the photo electric effect. However there are two reasons against that. Firstly interference will not occur unless there are two light sources. Secondly the energy in a light wave is a function of frequency only, not intensity. Therefore if interference did occur it would only cause a few more electrons locallly, not speedier ones and they would likely go unnoticed.
This is probably of little interest to most. The next post is about the problem of momentum with the particle model, when I have understand it a bit better.
30
Initial discussion here;
http://joannenova.com.au/2018/07/off-topic-comments/#comment-2017230
00
Light is neither a wave nor a particle. The best description at the moment is light is made up of wave packets that can be expressed mathematically by a wave function, which can be used to compute the probability of the mass and velocity of the wave packets. There are several alternative theories, such as the Pilot Wave Theory but they all only leave open more questions. As a Physicist the topic has interested me for several decades and have research it at great depth. The bottom line is we do not know exactly what light is.
More can be found here:
https://www.youtube.com/user/LookingGlassUniverse/videos
https://www.youtube.com/user/EugeneKhutoryansky/videos
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-PAjJcRVCs
30
Thanks Peter S,
That seems fair enough.
Most of the references I have looked at refer to the particle model. The particle model seems to be unable to explain the momentum considerations. Particle collisions, including photon/ electron should conserve momentum, if they are both particles.
Can you confirm that the photo electron emerges at right angles to the incident photon, but in line with the electric field? That would be a violation of the law of conservation of momentum, surely sinking the particle model entirely.
00
Armchair scientists still call it a particle yet we’ve known for decades photons are definitely not particles.
As for the rest have a look at Photon-Graviton Interaction and CPH Theory
No one really understand the true nature of photons, not yet anyway. It’s still very much a mystery.
11
A photon is a discrete energy quantum. It does not exist as a particle. Electro-magnetic energy is all about us. The energy flow in that energy field is unidirectional at any point in time and space as described by the Poynting vector.
When the electro-magnetic energy interacts with matter it can become thermalised by exciting the material. At quanta level there are particles in the matter that can “tune” to particular energy frequency and absorb the energy quantum required to take it to a higher discrete energy state. The linked clip is a good demonstration of energy transfer in a sound field showing the difference in energy transfer with tuned and untuned forks:
http://thekidshouldseethis.com/post/resonance-forced-vibration-and-a-tuning-forks-demonstration
In trying to explain this to more technically minded soles at reneweconomy the example of a radio transmitter was given as the perfect case of something radiating in all directions. That is patently not true because there is no energy transfer between two antennas of equal radiating power. Both towers interact with each other and the resulting SINGLE e-m field is something quite different to just the scalar sum of both fields. I gave the example of a phased antenna array where the directional intensity of the field can be altered by phasing the energy into the various antennas:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phased_array
I once saw an argument from a professor in radiative heat transfer suggesting that for photons to not go in a particular direction from a source to another source then the emitting objects would need to be “communicating” with each other and stated “that cannot happen”. My simple response to that is to consider gravity. How does the Earth “communicate” with the sun to know how much attraction there is between them. That “communication” occurs at the speed of light; exactly the same speed as radiant matter communicates with the their surroundings via the e-m field they share. All matter exist in a 3-D e-m field. The presence of the matter can alter that field. Gas molecules and atomic particles can tune to a particular frequency and absorb a discrete quantum of energy from the field.
If you have not read Michael Mishchenko’s paper it is worth reading and taking in as much as you can absorb:
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/c03b/2b493f57e13d3c3e2b58d17c9656d2dee978.pdf
I previously provided the link to his lecture:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hjKJyn_uoIE
As previously noted he discusses photons at the 22 minute mark with scathing comments as it does not aid understanding.
This understanding of EMR highlights the unphysical nature of “back radiation”. Given that IPCC make a big thing about back radiation it highlights the unscientific nature of their various reports. However the fact that back radiation does not exist does not mean that atmospheric absorption of surface radiation cannot alter the surface temperature. What I do know is that for the planet to get warmer the atmosphere would need to increase in mass and/or change composition and there is no compelling data to indicate that is happening. If anything the total precipitable water has reduced in the 21st century.
A really interesting finding I made is that the Muana Lao observatory maintain a record of Back Radiation dating to the 1960s. Just shows how dumb scientists can be actually believing they are measuring something that does not exist. What they measure is the near sky temperature and infer a radiation figure based on applying the Boltzman equation for a black body. The reading is calibrated in W/sq.m so that is what they report. Further to that point, Mishchenko discusses in the linked paper above how one might go about making a device that can actually measure the Poynting vector and energy flow. His work is primarily aimed at getting a grip on cloud radiation impacts but suffered a major setback when a rocket with instrumentation he was involved with blew up on take-off.
21
It’s amazing how the uneducated just plug in numbers to the Boltzmann equation and call that the answer.
Experimental observation of the system under assessment must first be made to tune the Boltzmann before it can be used to extend and predict within that system only.
Failure to do this, as in the case of Global Warming scientists, just shows how unscientific they really are.
KK
00
Thanks Rick,
I did watch the YouTube by Michael Mischenko. I was not able to read his paper, which you linked to before because I have been on a cruise ship, with very limited Internet. I will read it through now. It will likely take me a few days.
10
The maths challenges me these days but the fundamental understanding it provides resolved the difficulty I have always had with reconciling radiation transfer equations, the second law of thermodynamics and the concept of the photon.
Viewing an e-m field as something akin to an ocean might help as it presents a “field” that we appreciate physically. At any point in time and location in the ocean there is only one pressure. In water, energy transfers at about 5000m/s so it takes time for one energy source to interact with others and the boundary to determine the pressure at any location at any time. Likewise at any point and time in space as well as in matter there is only one electric field and one magnetic field. Energy sources within that field interact at 3E8m/s and contribute to a unidirectional e-m energy flow at any point in time and space.
00
hi Peter,
So it’s Back radiation as the driving force about your curiosity about the photon.
Will J would possibly tell us that it doesn’t exist and I think all scientists would agree that effectively it doesn’t exist with CO2 as the focus.
On a macroscopic level energy can only go in one direction: down the temperature gradient.
It is a physical given that temperature drops with increase in altitude and that this lures energy out from the ground to move towards equilibrium.
The sun can replenish that energy the next day by the energising effect of incident UV but as night falls the loss starts all over again.
Using the microscopic model of the behaviour of the atom of CO2 may imply that any incident IR it picks up would be instantly re emitted as a spherical emission: half up, half down.
The up emission would keep going.
The down emission would be instantly stopped through the standard gas law mechanisms.
Our ability to picture what is going on is helped by concepts such as atom, electron, photon and EM wave. That’s all they are, useful concepts.
As soon as they stop working we have to drop them and move on to a new, more sophisticated model.
Another question, if so called CO2 backradiation exists why wouldn’t water back radiation also exist.
Water backrad should be a big worry for the greens, there’s a lot up there.
🙂 KK
10
You seem to be ignoring the magnetic part. A moving electric charge has an electric field and a magnetic field. The two fields are mutually at right angles and the energy is handed back and forth between them. Ignore magnetic fields and everything collapses.
Magnetic fields can exist on their own. So can electric fields. But the moment there is motion …
Yes I know, you’re ruminating at the static level at present, and I’m ruining it by running off and moving.
Space at it’s most basic level, is electromagnetic: it has a magnetic vector and an electric vector. The two vectors are at right angles so space can be thought of as an electromagnetic sheet perhaps similar to a woven cloth. There are the magnetic and electric constants (mu and rho).
An atomic particle could be energy deposited into a number of adjacent interstices in that field `cloth’ of space. A photon could be energy dropped into one `cell,’ an electron two `cells.’
—use as many cells as the energy of the basic particle requires.
And there is that third, never to be forgotten, vector: time.
Can’t get away from any of them.
Remember: it’s an electromagnetic universe.
10
I have a small preference for a `whole cloth’ rather than it’s parts 🙂
If you haven’t read Allmendinger’s (2017) paper investigating the thermal behaviour of gases under irradiation , PeterC, then it might be useful to you at some time as you further develop your thoughts.
It’s only a suggestion.
01
Oops: a major fallacy: Magnetic fields can exist on their own. So can electric fields.
Oh no, they can’t. They have to be caused by something. A field is a resultant of a property of something else, usually matter. But, have one, add motion and you have both.
00
Will do Sophocles,
Thanks for the suggestion.
00
Tony Abbott. He is finally setting himself openly against Malcolm Turnbull. Lovely comment he made last night about Craig Kelly as brave at the start of his career where Tony himself does not have to worry about promotion (Laughs). Tony is the hated enemy of everyone except Australians. Very much like Trump, the enemy of the media and every Democrat, everyone in any University and the people against everything, the Greens, the Sierra Club and Bernie Sanders.
However if Tony was to once again be leader of the Liberals, on this one policy of electricity prices, just about everyone would vote for him, despite what we are told from the howling media. Even and especially Northern Queensland. Victoria and South Australia. Electricity prices would be enough, but he has been proven right in his boat policy, immigration policy and just about everything else. The Prince Phillip idea was not his idea but a direct request from the Palace as an appropriate honor for a lifetime’s work, something the media told no one. Besides, like eating an onion or winking on radio, it was a complete beat up from the people who hate the Royals, led by Malcolm, trusted Minister for Communications.
The so called popularity of Malcolm includes mostly people who would never vote Liberal anyway. To them is a better Labor leader than Bill Shorten, but who isn’t? No Bill will be gone soon and the Liberal MPs with him. That is why Tony has threatened to cross the floor in a one seat majority parliament. It’s over Malcolm.
Now the question is whether Banker Malcolm wants his hidden $1.75Million gift to Turnbull’s Liberals back? If he does (which is possibly illegal, even criminal under AEC rules), the Liberals will need the McCormack money. They will have no choice but to put a conservative candidate in charge of the Liberals or there will be no money for any campaign. That’s what Kroger’s battle in court was about. Kroger lost. It’s over Malcolm.
You paid a lot of money to be PM, something your great uncle never achieved as head of the British Labor party. George Lansbury was completely wrong about disarmament and his gentleman friend Mr Hitler was no a humble unambitious Christian. You have shown the same lack of judgement. Even Rudd didn’t build a giant battery in the sky.
161
A lack of extreme weather or warming in the arctic.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png
An above the short average ice volume.
http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20180702.png
Extent well above 2012.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
30
Greenland SMB going way high again.
https://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
So attention focused on Antarctic needs to ignore extent also.
https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
Hmmm. what about Aussie temps? Oh -0.55 anomaly.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2018/07/uah-global-temperature-update-for-june-2018-0-21-deg-c/
ABC TV Still finds a way to not notice.
61
I wrote an article a few years ago that had a picture of Greenpeace filling up the Rainbow Warrior with BP fuel…
Now, Greenpeace made a Superman drone and crashed it into a nuclear plant to show how unsafe they are:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-03/watch-greenpeace-crashes-superman-drone-nuclear-power-plant-expose-facilitys
I wonder how Superman would fare flying into an operating wind turbine?
Got Kryptonite?
http://media.cagle.com/123/2013/12/20/142109_600.jpg
Merry 4th of July!!!!
Be certain to show the above to all children 10 years old and younger!!!
00
missing from all reporting on Abbott lecture. can’t find a single stand-alone article on the Nats demand:
Facebook: The Australian
4 Jul: The Nationals want at least three baseload power stations to support the PM’s national energy guarantee as Tony Abbott urges withdrawing from Paris deal.
LINK
Abbott says dump Paris, Nats issue demands
The Nationals are demanding the construction of “a minimum of three” baseload power stations as the price of their support for Malcolm Turnbull’s national energy guarantee, as Tony Abbott last night called on the government to abandon the (Paris climate agreement)…
https://www.facebook.com/theaustralian/posts/10151133032399978
60
Tony did say that while Malcolm could fund a $12Billion battery in the sky, it was nonsense that he could not build any new coal power stations. He said this could be run by the Snowy Authority which already has gas fired generation as backup.
50
Victoria, NSW and Queensland deserve Hele, the crow eaters aren’t interested.
10
Another example on the quality of peer-review journals:
Academic Journal Runs Hoax Article About Conservatives’ Bathroom Habits
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2018/07/03/academic-journal-runs-hoax-article-about-conservatives-bathroom-habits/
10
heard BBC radio begin item on the following with the great news that sub-Saharan African countries will see crop increases of 30 percent in coming years. cannot find any BBC document today and, what little coverage is online, focuses on the negative:
3 Jul: Phys.org: Agriculture in Europe to decline as Asian output grows: UN, OECD
by Isabel Malsang, Serene Assir
Agricultural production in Western Europe is set to decline over the coming decade, with output in Africa and Asia expected to increase, the OECD and the UN Food and Agriculture Organization said in a report Tuesday.
The unrest-wracked Middle East meanwhile faces a rising threat of food insecurity, the report said, as conflict, climate change and poor policy all have the effect of keeping the region overly reliant on imports…
The unrest-wracked Middle East meanwhile faces a rising threat of food insecurity, the report said, as conflict, climate change and poor policy all have the effect of keeping the region overly reliant on imports.
“Over the coming decade, the expansion of agricultural production will be disproportionately concentrated in the developing world,” the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the FAO said in their joint report.
“Overall, output will expand less in developed economies, notably in Western Europe, where agricultural and fish production is only projected to grow by around 3 percent over the outlook period,” the report added.
***In sub-Saharan Africa, crop production is set to expand by 30 percent, with meat and dairy both set to grow by 25 percent.
South and east Asia—which includes China and India—are the world’s biggest producers of a wide array of agricultural products.
***Growth in output will remain high in the region, the report said.
“The coming decade is likely to add new challenges, in particular the need to reconcile high output levels with increasingly stringent standards for sustainable production,” it said.
“Nonetheless, the region is expected to expand agricultural and fish production by 17 percent over the outlook period.”…
https://phys.org/news/2018-07-agriculture-europe-decline-asian-output.html
3 Jul: OECD Library: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027
World agricultural markets have changed markedly since the food price spikes of 2007-8, as production has grown strongly while demand growth has started to weaken…
Authors: OECD and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(SCROLL DOWN FOR ALL DOWNLOADS)
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/agriculture-and-food/oecd-fao-agricultural-outlook-2018-2027_agr_outlook-2018-en
Kenyan economy grows most since 2016 as good weather boosts crop
CPI Financial – 19 hours ago
Gross domestic product in East Africa’s largest economy expanded 5.7 per cent in the three months through March from a year earlier…
20
Allies in the plastic bag war!
“Somalia’s Al-Shabab terror group bans plastic bags over environmental concerns”
http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2018/07/somalias-al-shabab-terror-group-bans-plastic-bags-over-environmental-concerns.html
On reflection most of the “single use” bags we get have a second use. And somehow the property isn’t knee deep in littered ones.
And (around the latest ban on plastic drinking straws)
“It is easy to see a parallel between this movement and the once-popular urge to prohibit or restrict the use of plastic bags. Likewise spurred on by bad stats and feel-good activism, San Francisco became the first major city to ban plastic bags in 2007, with prohibitions later moving on to the usual suspects of Seattle, Los Angeles, Austin, and eventually the entire state of California. But once the easy wins were out of the way and consumers became increasingly irritated at the loss of convenience, a backlash set in.”
More at
http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/index.php/2018/07/03/oceans-of-propaganda/
IMO we need to act on a slogan like
“Don’t Californicate the world”
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In a bid to out-due California’s insanity, Seattle has become the first city in the nation to ban plastic straws and utensils:
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2018/07/02/seattle-bans-plastic-straws-utensils-becoming-first-major-us-city-to-do-so.amp.html
I am thinking that the next time I visit Seattle I’ll bring a large supply of plastic straws and utensils so I can hand them out to customers of any fast-food restaurants I visit there.
31
One of the biggest lies told about free supermarket bags was that they were “single use”. Everybody I know had a secondary use for them such as garbage bin liners or picking up after the dog and they all ended up in landfill.
Now people will have to buy bags to use for the same functions the free bags were formerly used for.
There was never any environmental problem demonstrated that needed to be solved.
It was just Leftist virtue signalling.
Now the Left have won the war against cheap electricity in Australia they are moving onto other things like the war against plastic and the upcoming war against private motor vehicles.
101
Next they’ll wage war on the banks to forgive them their credit trespasses, oh, hang on, they already are.
And private credit card debt (just the outstanding balance alone) in Oz is an astonishing $45 Billion.
Gives new meaning to the phrase “just put it on the, umm, …..plastic”
People will just get whatever they want, whenever they want it, and just keep racking it up without the slightest care as to how they will ever pay it off, and one in six are hopelessly bogged in too deep that they can never pay it off.
Tony.
70
List of things a single use bag gets used for at our place:
Fire ash gathering
Dog poo glove
Dead animal pick up glove
Small items carry sack
Molding expanding foam around odd shapes for shipping
Dust bag on an electric planer because the dog liked the original
Excess produce container
Probably others i cant think of right now. Like the man said, single use? Pfffft!
80
Hung in fruit trees to deter birds…they last the season but then ‘biodegrade’.
31
another one thins morning, clothes donation bag
10
Mrs H folded them neatly and gave them to the charity for them to reuse.
00
any minute now our MSM will be celebrating!
Cape Town Dam Levels: Current Dam Water Levels – 3/7/2018
% storage 50.3
http://www.capetown.gov.za/Family%20and%20home/residential-utility-services/residential-water-and-sanitation-services/this-weeks-dam-levels
3 Jul: Memeburn: Big news: Cape Town’s dam levels smash through the 50% mark
By Andy Walker
We’ve done it, Cape Town.
The city’s dam storage levels have breached the 50% full mark after the weekend’s cold front swept through the region. This comes after Monday’s report stated that dams were 48.3% full.
The latest numbers reflect the gains made within the last 24 hours, which makes these figures all the more remarkable…
As of 3 July 2018, dam levels are officially at 50.3%.
Both the Berg River Dam and Wemmershoek Dam are above 80% full, while the Steenbras Upper Dam is at 101.4%. The Voëlvlei Dam gained 2.6% in a single day. The Theewaterskloof (2.1%), and Steenbras Lower (2%) also saw increases between 2 and 3 July…
As for the province as a whole, dam levels across the Western Cape officially stand at 41.5%…
https://memeburn.com/2018/07/cape-town-dams-rain-50-full/
50
VIDEO: 3 Jul: TheSouthAfrican: Watch: Joy as more water surges towards Theewaterskloof dam
The rain has fallen exactly where it was needed.
By Tom Head
Is there a sight more pleasant for sore Capetonian eyes than this? Torrents of water pushed their way towards Theewaterskloof dam on Monday, as the Mother City scored another victory against day zero.
With incessant rain hammering the Cape over the weekend, dam levels across the province enjoyed a sixth consecutive week of increases. In fact, water storage facilities in Cape Town are at double the capacity they were in early May…
Thankfully for the locals, a large portion of it headed right where it was needed…
How full is Theewaterskloof dam?
Based in Villiersdorp, the dam is seen as the poster child for Cape Town’s day zero crisis. The largest facility of its kind in the province, Theewaterskloof dropped to dangerously low levels earlier in 2018, as it slowly resembled a barren wasteland.
However, cold front after cold front over the last two months has seen the dam make a very steady recovery. Despite the good news, it is also worth noting that Theewaterskloof is still only 34% full – which, for the pessimists, means it is 66% empty…
However, scenes like these remain something to celebrate for Capetonians…VIDEOS
Watch water flowing into Theewaterskloof dam here…
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/theewaterskloof-dam-water-surge-july-2018-video/
3 Jul: Memeburn: #Coldfront trends on Twitter as South Africa freezes
By Andy Walker
After turning Cape Town into a temporary lake, and the rest of the Western and Eastern Cape into a winter wonderland, the July cold front has made its way through South Africa’s interior.
People are not happy.
The hashtag #coldfront began trending across the city and South Africa early Tuesday morning in a response to the extreme cold felt over much of the Free State, Eastern Cape and Gauteng…
According to the South African Weather Service, these were some of the low temperatures forecast last night:
•Bloemfontein, FS: -7°C
•Bethlehem, FS: -8°C
•Potchesfstoom, NW: -6°C
•Standerton, MP: -6°C
•Sutherland, NC: -6°C ETC
PICS/TWEETS
And judging by pictures on Twitter, the weather service got its predictions spot on…
The cold conditions are set to persist for much of the week.
https://memeburn.com/2018/07/cold-front-south-africa/
10
Pat,
These very cold temperatures are due to global warming.
Are you daft?
Don’t you follow MSN, Fairfax, ABC, etc?
10
its gone vewy , vewy quiet about Capetown (h/t Elmer Fudd)
20
If only they had made one of the carbon (sic) taxes a microbe tax, the planet would be saved by now …
The Mysterious Microbes in the Sky
Scientists are just beginning to understand how microscopic organisms that rise out of the ocean can help manage global temperatures.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/microbes-can-change-the-temperature/564092/
10
3 Jul: Greenpeace activists crash Superman-shaped drone into French nuclear plant
by Lucia Suarez Sang; The Associated Press contributed to this report
Greenpeace activists flew a Superman-shaped drone into the no-fly zone around a French nuclear plant on Tuesday before crashing it against the building to highlight the facility’s lack of security.
The drone, piloted by one of Greenpeace’s activists, slammed into the tower in Bugey nuclear plant, about 20 miles from the eastern city of Lyon, the group said in a video…
The environmental group, which also crashed a tiny radio-controlled plane into the facility, said the aircrafts were harmless. They targeted the facility’s spent-fuel pool building, which can hold the equivalent of several reactor cores in concrete pools outside the highly reinforced reactor building…
France generates about 75 percent of its electricity from nuclear power in 19 nuclear sites operated by the state-controlled EDF.
The EDF said two drones were intercepted by French police and that their presence “had no impact on the security of the installations.”
EDF said it would file a police complaint against Greenpeace, Reuters reported…
The latest stunt follows a series of staged break-ins by Greenpeace activists in French nuclear plants. Last week, 19 activists were handed ***suspended sentences for breaking into another nuclear plant last November.
These stunts have sparked a parliament investigation into nuclear security, which is due to be presented on Thursday, Reuters reported.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/greenpeace-activists-crash-superman-shaped-drone-into-french-nuclear-plant/ar-AAzx80u
***lock them up.
30
They will get all weepy and hand wringy when one of them gets shot playing these stupid ga,es at nuclear facilities. Watch the victimhood on display if one of these gestures gets out of hand.
They seem to ignpre the overall terrorism climate while they play their self absorbed , virtue signalling games and expect the world to organise itself around them and their posturing.
40
Unless the Superman figure also had his Superpants down with ‘No Coal’ plastered across his Superbutt then I am not remotely interested. Does not Greenpeace know that the only protests taken seriously are the ones with pants down action?
Amateurs!
Jokes aside there are several points to be made here.
First is that Greenpeace is trying to raise awareness of the lack of security… a week after 19 Greenpeace members were given sentences for security breaches. Sorry Greenpeace, but getting a bit of a mixed message here.
Second is that in their own words the drone was harmless. So they proved WHAT exactly? That Drone Privacy laws are completely out of date? Western (at least) nuclear facility are built to a standard that puts brick outhouses to shame. The act of an aircraft crashing into them is a design consideration. A friend of mine with professional experience at Lucas Heights once told me that the threat of having an aircraft ‘attack’ the reactor is considered real and they actually do safety drills for it. He also told me that policy is for all personnel to remain in the most solid building – aka the reactor building – as that is the strongest and safest location.
This little drone stunt is meaningless. I could do the same level of pointless attention seeking by pouring a bucket of mildly salty water outside the nearest Greenpeace office to highlight the fact they have no real world plain to deal with rising sea levels.
50
comment in moderation re: 3 Jul: Greenpeace activists crash Superman-shaped drone into French nuclear plant
00
3 Jul: Breitbart: Summer Sea Ice Is Causing Havoc for Shipping in the Arctic
by James Delingpole
According to the Barents Observer (LINK):
(excerpts)It is late June, but the winter has not abandoned the Gulf of Ob. The shallow bay, which houses two of Russia’s biggest Arctic out-shipment terminals for oil and gas, remains packed with fast ice.
It has created a complicated situation, Rosatomflot says. The state company which manages the Russian nuclear-powered icebreakers, confirms that independent shipping in the area is «paralysed» and that LNG carriers and tankers are stuck…
Global warming? What global warming?
“The global warming, which there has been so much talk about for such a long time, seems to have receded a little and we are returning to the standards of the 1980s and 1990s,” says company representative Andrey Smirnov…READ ON
https://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/07/03/climate-experts-confounded-by-thick-summer-arctic-sea-ice/
20
What do people think about the “electric universe” theory?
https://www.electricuniverse.info/
10
3 Jul: Times-Picayune: Experts now predict a ‘below-average’ 2018 hurricane season
By Laura McKnight
Experts are now forecasting a “below-average” Atlantic hurricane season based on unusually cold temperatures in portions of the Atlantic Ocean, according to updated projections released Monday (June 2) by Colorado State University.
The new predictions call for a total of 11 named storms to develop this season, a drop from the original prediction of 14. The 11 storms include Subtropical Storm Alberto, the one named storm that has already occurred this season.
Of those 11 storms, four are expected to become hurricanes, including one major hurricane. The original forecast, released in April, included seven hurricanes, three of them major hurricanes. In late May, experts adjusted those expectations to six hurricanes, two of them major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 and above.
The adjusted storm outlook was released by Colorado State University’s Department of Atmospheric Science and researchers for its Tropical Meteorology Project, considered among the top experts in the field.
The report, authored by Philip J. Klotzbach and Michael M. Bell, attributes the decrease in expected storms to temperatures that are “much colder than normal” in tropical and subtropical parts of the Atlantic Ocean…
See the full report from Colorado State University experts here (LINK)…
https://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2018/07/experts_now_predict_a_below-av.html#incart_2box_nola_river_orleans_news
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AUDIO: 16mins29secs: 4 Jul: 2GB: Luke Grant: Senator Eric Abetz speaks coal and Australia’s energy mix
Tony Abbott is calling for Australia to abandon the Paris Climate Agreement…
Senator Eric Abetz has told Luke Grant that while the intricacies of the energy policy are not complete, coal should not be demonised.
“The National Energy Guarantee is at this stage just a framework,” he explains.
“We still have to put the flesh on it. Like everything in public policy, the devil is in the detail. We have not been provided the detail as yet.”
“But government has been mucking around with policy for far too long, subsidising solar, wind, hydro, involving itself in the gas market. We are willing to interfere for all forms of energy, other than coal.”
“Coal is our cheapest, most reliable source of energy on which our nation’s economic wellbeing is built. Why are countries like Japan, China, India, wanting to buy our coal? Because it is a high-quality coal that is high in density, low in emissions and as a result, is able to provide really good energy.”
https://www.2gb.com/senator-eric-abetz-speaks-coal-and-australias-energy-mix/
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ABC has woken up, now that it’s worked out how to frame it:
4 Jul: ABC: Tony Abbott wants Australia to pull out of the Paris Climate deal
By political correspondent Louise Yaxley
Posted 11 minutes ago
“I think the best thing we can do right now is pull out of the Paris Agreement,” Mr Abbott told Sky News last night…
Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has rebuked him, saying Australia “plays by the rules”.
“If we sign an agreement we stick to the agreement,” Ms Bishop told Sky.
“Australia wants to be seen as a reliable and trusted global partner — we signed the Paris agreement, we can achieve the targets that we set, and they were deliberately set in a way that we could achieve them,” she said…
When he was prime minister, Mr Abbott said Australia would keep its commitments.
“The difference between Australia and a lot of other countries, quite frankly is, when we make commitments to reduce emissions we keep them,” he said at a media conference in July 2015.
“Other countries make all these airy fairy promises, that in the end never come to anything,” he said…
Much of Mr Abbott’s speech to the Australian Environment Foundation on Tuesday night was at odds with the position he took three years ago, but he defended that on Sky saying “now that we know more, we can do differently”.
“When circumstances change, you change your position,” he said…
Mr Abbott has repeatedly cited Chief Scientist Alan Finkel to explain his call for Australia to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.
He quoted Dr Finkel as saying “nothing that Australia does to reduce emissions will make the slightest difference to climate”.
But Dr Finkel recently said he was taken “totally out of context”.
He confirmed on the ABC’s Weekend Wrap program he said getting rid of Australia’s 1.3 per cent of global emissions makes very little difference numerically.
But Dr Finkel said “if all countries had that attitude and didn’t participate in the global drive, the global strategy, then we would get nowhere.
“It is a bit like a democracy. If everybody said ‘well my vote doesn’t count I won’t vote’ and we all did that we would no longer have a democracy — that was the context that I made that comment,” he said.
Mr Abbott’s current position contradicts his stance as prime minister in a variety of ways.
Three years ago he announced the target Australia would take to the Paris talks and called it “responsible and achievable”.
He said it “gets the right balance between our economic and environmental responsibilities”.
“We are a country that sets credible, achievable targets and we meet them,” Mr Abbott said.
“This is certainly not without costs but the costs are manageable.
“So, this has been carefully put together to be environmentally and economically responsible.”
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-04/tony-abbott-says-pull-out-of-paris-climate-agreement/9937972
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http://snowreport.co.za/facebook/
Lots of lovely pictures of giraffes and lions in the snow in South Africa, as well as pics of families and children playing in the snow and making snowmen in sub-zero temps after the weekend’s cold front went through. Who will think of the giraffes! Please, won’t somebody think of the giraffes!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12082690
New Zealanders “will be waking to frosts and frozen windscreens after an icy night where temperatures plummeted into the negatives right across the country.” Churnalists and computer climate modellers, aka professional eggspurts, don’t even blink an eye at the realisation that their ‘man-made carbon = warming’ theory fails every winter.
http://www.mountainwatch.com/snow-cams/
Lots of lovely pics of Australia’s ski fields covered in snow (with more on the way this weekend). Denial is not a river in Egypt.
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Okay: I thought of the giraffes … one … two … three. There.
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I didn’t realise they bred so quickly.
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that was yesterday. It is 17C in canberra today. Global warming is back
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Lucky Canberra!
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it was 12 overnight… it must be runaway now!
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apparently, ABC did have this piece up 3 hours ago, but it doesn’t come up in regular search and is not on the “ABC Just In” page when I visited just now:
AUDIO: 3min27secs: 4 Jul: ABC: Abbott urges Australia to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement
posted 3 hours ago
By Katherine Gregory on AM
Former prime minister Tony Abbott has escalated an attack on his own party’s energy and climate change policies.
In a speech delivered to a think tank last night, Mr Abbott urged Australia to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement and rethink its national energy guarantee.
He wants the Coalition to follow the lead of US President Donald Trump and abandon any official emissions reduction policies.
Featured:
Tony Abbott, former prime minister
Craig Kelly, Liberal MP
Julie Bishop, Foreign Minister
http://www.abc.net.au/radio/canberra/programs/am/abbott-urges-australia-to-withdraw-from-paris-climate-agreement/9938086
nowhere in either piece is Bob Carter mentioned…and, no surprise, nor is Peter Ridd.
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meanwhile, SBS follows the Guardian headline “Tony Abbott urges withdrawal from Paris agreement, despite signing Australia up as PM” with:
4 Jul: SBS: Abbott urges Paris agreement exit despite signing Australia up
Mr Abbott says he never would have signed the global deal on emissions reductions if he knew the United States would later pull out.
By James Elton-Pym
Mr Abbott ramped up his ongoing attacks on the Turnbull government’s energy policy, the National Energy Guarantee, which has unsettled a bloc of pro-coal backbenchers in the Coalition…
Mr Abbott ramped up his ongoing attacks on the Turnbull government’s energy policy, the National Energy Guarantee, which has unsettled a bloc of pro-coal backbenchers in the Coalition
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/abbott-urges-paris-agreement-exit-despite-signing-australia-up
SBS auhor Elton-Pym doesn’t bother to alert people to the Abbott story on his Twitter page – too busy posting stuff, like this riveting NYT article –
TWEET: 4 Jul: James Elton-Pym: Hahahaha “songversations” plz stop
LINK NYT TWEET: Tech elites are attending so-called songversations, gatherings that combine philosophical rap sessions with improvised music, run by a ukulele-strumming songstress who describes herself as a “heartist” (LINK)
NYT: Tech Elites Recreate Burning Man Inside Their Living Rooms
Like a modern version of a medieval minstrel, a singer named Jess Magic is helping A-list entrepreneurs get in touch with their inner child in private “songversations.”
https://twitter.com/JamesEltonPym/status/1014313272638562304
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News article in today’s West about Bureau dropping Perth’s rainfall averages.
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Link:
https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/severe-weather/weather-bureau-drops-perth-rainfall-averages-ng-b88884550z
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Was also mentioned in The Australian this morning, along with temperature readings.
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were they going of narrative? if so it sounds a bit like the cyclone intensity/frequency graph that just got too hard to update for a few years.
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Sorry, yesterday’s West. Page 5
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More alternative facts from our Minister of Truth Frydenberg:
MEDIA RELEASE 22 June 2018
“The gas market on the east coast continues to improve since the volatility of 2016–17. Prices are lower, with a fall from a peak of $20 a gigajoule in early 2017 to around $8–10 a gigajoule. The increase in the domestic gas supply has also helped to drive a 30 per cent decrease in the wholesale price of electricity”.
Per AEMO, wholesale gas prices this year are $7.50-9.00/GJoule after peak of $9.50-10.50 mid 2017, compared to prices below $4.00/GJ in 2014.
And Victorian wholesale electricity prices for last three financial years $46/MWhr, $67, and $92/Mwhr.
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I would appreciate a discussion on a typical cost of a house going off-grid using rooftop solar and backup batteries. I believe the cost to do this successfully, avoiding any power outages and the need to reduce power consumption, would be around $150,000. This figure is an assumption only, not based on any data, but using a household power consumption of 25 kWh every day. I haven’t specified a location, perhaps Sydney? Any thoughts?
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Don’t do it.
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Sorry, should have said that there is NO WAY I would install such a system at home. It’s just that this issue comes up frequently in The Oz comments, and I would like some data to counter these ideas.
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surely i cant just be an assumption, you must have basedit on something if you have a 25kW a day figure in mind (25kW! take no prisoners!)
what did you allocate to panels (or other means), batteries, generator? How many days do you expect you batteries to support you?
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I was hoping to use data, such as the recent figure for the last 7 weeks of rooftop solar energy, if I knew how many installations were involved. The 25 units is based on my own daily power usage averaged over one year, although I realise that the Aust. average is lower. I haven’t as yet determined the installation size – I presume a 5 kW system would be typical these days? From info here, I believe that the daily average is about 25% of this, but I’m not sure if the 25% figure includes days of little or no solar. Any figures would be appreciated.
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I am in Melbourne and my systems do not quite achieve the average insolation due to shadowing by neighbouring trees. However I have looked at insolation over the east coast and you get high energy availability (at better than 999 days in 1000) if you count on having 2 hours of full sunshine in 48 hours. That means for 25kWh/day you need 25kW of panels and 50kWh battery if you do not have ICE back up. You can halve the solar panels and reduce the battery to 15kWh if you have ICE back up. The fuel cost is negligible because the generator would only run for a few hours in a year.
With regard to the battery you should avoid pulling it harder than 0.5C for more than minutes. That means for 15kWh battery you would try to limit sustained loads to 7.5kWh. So firing up a cooktop, oven and water heater all at the same time is likely to get you to that 7.5kW. Then add an air conditioner or radiant heater and you are really beginning to push the inverters and the battery. So you really would not try to run a full electric house on a battery smaller than 15kWh. It will shorten its cycle life and the efficiency drops off considerably as you load the circuitry.
As well as my own personal experience with an off-grid system, I have looked at the actual daily insolation maps for the entire east coast. The worst situations occurs when a rain depression works its way south from the tropics. It can knock out sunlight for a couple of days so the system has very low output for the entire period even when the sun is high in the sky. In Melbourne the low winter sun is the challenging period. I have panels at relatively steep angles facing NE. N. and NW to make the most from the variability and low angle of the sun.
The BOM provides historical daily insolation charts:
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/solar/archive.jsp?map=solarave&colour=colour&map=solarave&year=2017&month=3&day=30&period=daily&area=nat
Put in 30 March 2017 to see the impact of Debbie on the east coast. Less than 1 hour of full sunshine (3.6MJ) anywhere between Sydney and Brisbane on that day.
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Many thanks for your comments Rick – I was hoping that you would be able to contribute as you seem to have a lot of experience in this field. I’ll now work out a cost for a system you have described and see what it costs.
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Hmm, may not have to – I see you have already provided a typical cost. Many thanks.
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Graeme #4:
I have a friend who went off grid. It cost him just under $50,000.
5kW solar panels, 12 standard batteries (not lithium but deep draw industrial) and a diesel generator with auto start-up. He actually had no choice as he was building a new house on acreage and the Power Company wanted $75,000 to run a line in about 200 metres (they dropped the price when he decided not to use their services).
He has since decided to put in more solar panels because he has increased usage, so the generator was turning on more than once or twice a week.
For what it is worth an autostart controller for a generator is about $1300. A controller to switch the output from your solar panels to your batteries if there is a grid blackout is about the same – not that would be of interest in your case.
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Thanks G3. Very interesting. I was looking for a typical cost for a suburban house, so perhaps the backup generator approach is not suitable. However, I did see a large diesel generator being offered in Europe to be housed in basements. When you say “deep draw industrial” batteries, what type are these? I presume not as used in subs. I might follow these up to see their expected lifetime specs.
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I think it would be cheaper to go for a diesel or natural gas or LPG (US = propane) generator.
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Yes, agreed, but as I’ve explained to EG, I don’t actually plan to do this. Just want data for The Oz comments.
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It is cheaper to use diesel but a diesel running night and day will likely need a yearly service and maybe tossed out after 5 years. Then there is the task of fuelling it. You get about 4kWh per litre so it will churn through 7l/day or 50l/wk. Monthly delivery of a 200l drum and means to handle it or weekly trip to the local servo with a few 20l cans. Really tedious task.
Solar and battery are unobtrusive. They just do the job silently with no moving parts. They are close to maintenance free. If panels are angled to maximise winter recovery they will wash quite readily with any rain. Realistically any maintenance is less effort than paying a monthly electricity bill.
The most economic system is the solar/battery with a small ICE generator that could be permanently wired or just connected if the battery alarms on low voltage. It only needs to run a few days a year to make a dramatic reduction in the number of panels and the size of the battery. You really need 15-20kWh battery to handle all the domestic loads that can occur simultaneously. There is also merit in having redundancy in inverters and that keeps the unit size down. Biggest load is usually the oven.
The first step in any installation like this is to work through the load to see how it can be best managed. Make sure all appliances are the most efficient available. Use a small heater in the hot water and set to operate through the middle of the day. It is unlikely any summer conditions will test the capacity. Late June and early July are most likely to be the period to test the capacity.
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In Sydney you could reasonably achieve the 25kWh/day with 25kW of panels – say $30,000 installed (no STCs – it is too big to qualify anyhow) and a 50kWh battery say $30,000 Installed. Then inverters maybe another $5,000. So around $65,000. The solar panels should give 25 years life. That size battery would have the cycle life for 25 years because it will work over a small depth of discharge most of the time but they have not been around long enough to know if they will achieve a calendar life of 25 years. At this stage you would be advised to amortise the battery over 12 years. This system would provide electricity at around 70c/kWh if you have low cost finance. I have not done a thorough economic analysis. It depends on your source of funds.
A lower cost option would be to include an auto start generator and reduce both panels and battery. 25kW of panels would not be easily placed on most suburban roofs. Maybe an awning over the back yard. An optimised system with diesel back-up would achieve an electricity cost of 50c/kWh if you had low cost finance.
In current terms the 50c/kWh will be where grid power is likely to end up because that is where off-grid systems can achieve a comparative advantage so anyone who can will go off grid rather than be exposed to ever increasing grid prices.
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The numbers get interesting very quickly. Rick, would that be enough battery to cover 3/4 cloudy days? or does that assume a generator present?
If this sort of thing goes mainstream, I guess we can expect generators to be banned in urban locations. If they are worried about lawnmowers and whipper snippers that run for an hour or so you can only imagine the uproar over stationary engines running for hours.
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should have said 3 or 4 cloudy days, reads like three quarter cloudy days
00
I am confident that the design criteria of 2 hours of full sunshine equivalent in 48 hours will give 999days out of 1000 on mainland Australia. Tasmania is not really an option for just solar. Panels should be oriented to maximise winter input.
Even on cloudy days the panels still produce. It takes time but there is considerable data available to determine realistic output based on measured insolation at any location on a daily basis or data from actual panels like this on a minute-by-minute basis:
http://pv-map.apvi.org.au/live#2018-04-06
You can select a postcode and any day. If you look through the last week of June and first week of July over 4 years for your postcode looking for the worst two consecutive days you will have a reasonable handle on what you need. You then consider optimising for winter input and make allowance for any shading.
Places inland in the band between Sydney and Brisbane could use a less demanding criteria but probably not as low as most would think.
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Our postcode area is large and with greatly varying topography. Some places in it, like ours, can and does have a lot of fog until quite late, midday and well beyond sometimes. When I went to drop off our dog at the kennels before we came down to Melbourne on Tuesday, for example, there was lots of fog in the valley around Acheron but sun at the top of the cutting. (It was an amazing sight with the rising sun but I didn’t have time to stop and take a photograph unfortunately). Yesterday it was only a little mist. The point being, to my way of thinking, is that postcode statistics don’t and can’t give the full story on available sunlight.
On a side note, you do see some interesting stuff on the trans into Melbourne, aside from all the hideous graffiti (in Doubleview in Perth, years ago, we saw a fence/wall painted with graffiti-repellant paint. Why can’t something of this sort be mandated generally?) I was very amused to see solar panels facing north but any sunlight completely obliterated by trees…ye gods!
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Can and ‘do’….groan, and I thought I had proof read!
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Blame it on the fog, Annie. )
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Brain-fogged. At least I wrote brain there instead of bran. I also managed to miss that I made trains into trans…groan again!
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I can raise you one on panel placement silliness Annie. Our nieghbour installed panels on his garage, used all his available science with orientation and extra pitch in the roof for winter. Then planted his very own trees in front of them. The new owner is in the process of chopping their heads off.
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Yes I understand they still produce , however mine can go to 10% or less for extended periods. I guess with nameplate 25kW the 10% still isnt too shabby and that is on the unusual cloudy/foggy streaks.
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Thanks for all your detailed info Rick – much appreciated. Have to capture it all. Still would be interesting to compare the savings for a $65k system vs putting $65k away for 25 years in a reasonable finance scheme – wonder which one would provide the best return.
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Rick, somewhere you have dropped the ball on this. ?
A 25 kW solar installation should produce at least 60kWh per day even assuming a CF of 0.1… And closer to 100 KWh per day with a more normal 0.15 CF
Note . Solar proponents would argue that the CF is more like 0.25 !!
Few if any domestic rooftop installs are 25kW. (That would require 100 panels and a huge roof surface facing north !) and infact a 5-10 kW panel set could provide the required 25 KWh depending on how much storage and back up you want..
Also , G.. 25kWh consumption per day is a little excessive….what are you growing ?
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ABC adds to their earlier Yaxley piece (comment #19) with help from Anna Henderson:
4 Jul: ABC: Tony Abbott wants Australia to pull out of the Paris Climate deal he supported as PM
By political correspondent Louise Yaxley and national regional affairs reporter Anna Henderson
Updated 44 minutes ago
Tony Abbott has said Australia should withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement that he agreed to as prime minister three years ago.
In 2015, Mr Abbott announced the target Australia would take to the Paris talks and called that pledge “responsible and achievable”, saying it struck “the right balance between our economic and environmental responsibilities”.
But last night, the former prime minister said pulling out of the agreement would be “the best thing we can do right now”…
Mr Abbott’s comments are a strong signal he could cross the floor in Parliament to vote against it.
“As things stand, I couldn’t support it — no,” he said.
But Malcolm Turnbull today argued the NEG had “almost universal support” and he “couldn’t think of an energy policy that has had broader support”.
He said it had backing from the minerals industry, manufacturers, unions and the national farmers federation.
Mr Turnbull said his Government’s energy policies were “already starting to reduce prices, we’re turning the corner on energy prices”.
“So our polices are working,” the Prime Minister said…
Nationals MPs also still weighing up NEG
The number of MPs speaking out against the NEG is growing.
Nationals backbencher George Christensen has been a vocal critic of the NEG, and today said he was considering crossing the floor.
“When it comes to the NEG, I can’t support anything that doesn’t have an incentive built into it for baseload power,” he said.
“Whether that’s grants, whether it’s direct investment or government equity in projects.”
Fellow Queensland Nationals MPs Michelle Landry and Ken O’Dowd have also been pushing for funding for new coal-fired power stations.
Mr O’Dowd told the ABC he supported Mr Abbott’s position to ditch the Paris agreement, and Ms Landry said at times she questioned “why are we [were] involved in that [the agreement] when Australia is a very clean country”
“And I, at times, feel that we should be running our own race with this,” she said.
But Nationals cabinet minister David Littleproud argued Australia had international obligations to meet.
“Tony Abbott was prime minister when it was brought in, I respect his views, as a backbencher you’re entitled to that,” the Agriculture Minister said.
“The Government has made fit that you are part of a global economy and the reality is we have global commitments.”…
Much of Mr Abbott’s speech to the Australian Environment Foundation on Tuesday night was at odds with the position he took three years ago…
He quoted Dr Finkel blah blah
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-04/tony-abbott-says-pull-out-of-paris-climate-agreement/9937972
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AUDIO: 2mins48secs: 4 Jul: ABC: Nationals whip Landry raises concerns about Turnbull’s energy policy
By Alexandra Beech on The World Today
The National Party whip, Michelle Landry, has raised concerns about the Turnbull Government’s energy policy, saying many people don’t even know what the Paris Climate Agreement is.
It comes after Tony Abbott called for Australia to pull out of the agreement, which he signed while he was prime minister.
http://www.abc.net.au/radio/sydney/programs/worldtoday/nationals-whip-landry-raises-concerns-about-energy-policy/9939212
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4 Jul: NewDaily: Julie Bishop slaps down Tony Abbott on Paris climate deal
by Karen Sweeney, AAP
But Ms Bishop, who was deputy Liberal leader under Mr Abbott, said Australia always knew it would be bound by international agreements.
“When we signed up to the Paris agreement, it was in the full knowledge it would be an agreement Australia would be held to account for and it wasn’t an aspiration it was a commitment,” she told Sky News on Wednesday.
“Australia plays by the rules – if we sign an agreement, we stick to the agreement.”
She said the targets were agreed by the prime minister, cabinet and party room…
Ms Bishop and fellow minister Dan Tehan said the government’s proposed National Energy Guarantee – which Mr Abbott claims is being driven by the Paris agreement – was already bringing down prices.
“Any commentary aside from that, I think, misses the key point,” Mr Tehan told the ABC…
Senior Labor MP Chris Bowen said he was personally sad to hear Mr Abbott’s comments, but fundamental divisions in the government went beyond the former PM.
“You see this chaos and dysfunction at the heart of the Turnbull government when it comes to the important matter of energy policy,” he said.
“We’ve got to have consistent settings when it comes to policy for energy.”
His colleague Richard Marles said it was clear Mr Abbott still believed climate change is “crap”.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/04/paris-climate-binding-julie-bishop/
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pat:
If Dan Tehan thinks that the NEG will bring down prices then he is a gullible fool. The only way to bring down prices is to eliminate the RET subsidy, and switch to fixing the cost at the bid rate. That would have the effect of eliminating renewables which cannot compete with coal fired even until 2030 (Finkel report).
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When next you spot a fake news comment about the signing of the Paris Agreement, claiming Tony Abbott MP was responsible, refer to the media release in April 2016 from PM Turnbull:
https://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/australia-signs-paris-agreement-on-climate-change
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The claim that TA signed the agreement is made regularly in comments in The Australian articles and just as quickly refuted. Doesn’t stop the left continually claiming this though.
20
Australia to ratify Paris climate change agreement, despite concerns Donald Trump will withdraw
By political reporter Henry Belot
Updated 10 Nov 2016, 12:36pm
The Federal Government will ratify the Paris climate change agreement, despite concerns US president-elect Donald Trump will withdraw support once in office.
10
PM Abbott signed a Cabinet media release earlier in 2015 announcing intention to sign (but not ratify) the proposed Paris Agreement but was replaced as PM by Turnbull in September 2015. Media and Minister Bishop are referring to that release which was an announcement of intention to sign the Agreement.
The Agreement as discussed in Paris was signed in April 2016 in New York by the Turnbull Government and ratified later (November 2016?).
However, why is the Government attempting to blame Abbott MP?
If the Agreement is good then be proud of the achievement and take responsibility for it.
On the other hand ………..
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Attention Minister Bishop, the Paris Agreement signed is not binding and as President Trump has shown it can be abandoned.
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I’m not sure whether Australia has actually paid any money. Anybody know?
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It was announced that Julie Bishop rejects Tony Abbott’s call to withdraw from Paris Accord. Round whatever over. Abbott crawls back into the corner. Next round please. Zzzzzz.
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Is that a surprise?
Political opponent and cabinet minister rejects a call from a back bench MP who she prised from the Office of Prime Minister?
10
Is it winter or summer? http://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-battle-is-not-upon-physical-plane.html
00
***this is hilarious!
3 Jul: ClimateChangeNews: Board meeting turns ‘toxic’ as UN climate fund runs low
Rich and poor country representatives clash over policy priorities and replenishment at Green Climate Fund board meeting
By Megan Darby
A meeting of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) board in Songdo started unevenly on Sunday, as co-chair Paul Oquist was detained by political turmoil in Nicaragua, leaving Sweden’s Lennart Båge to run the session single-handed.
With developing countries complaining their priorities were not properly represented, it took nearly two days to agree on the agenda for the meeting.
“I have never served on a board that is this dysfunctional and toxic in my life,” said US representative Geoffrey Okamoto, as the discussion dragged on…
“It is typical playing to the crowd,” said Zaheer Fakir, who represents South Africa. “The reason why it is dysfunctional and toxic is the way [the co-chairs] prepared for this board meeting.”
He said there had been a “serious lack of consultation” and the chairs had not responded to comments regarding the agenda before the meeting…
It has $2.8 billion left to allocate from its start-up donations. Projects up for consideration on Wednesday would claim $1bn of that.
***As well as the US withholding $2bn of its pledge, the pot has lost some $1bn in value due to exchange rate fluctuations since 2014, officials reported…
A proposal to ease the tension by allowing philanthropic organisations to chip in was dropped from the agenda for this session. “Most of the donors are trying to deflect away from their own responsibility,” said Fakir.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/03/board-meeting-turns-toxic-un-climate-fund-runs-low/
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***just as funny.
3 Jul: ClimateChangeNews: UN shipping body mulls curbs on industry influence, citing climate concerns
The International Maritime Organization’s governing council has agreed to consider reforms, while documents show giving gifts for votes is standard practice
By Megan Darby
A diverse coalition submitted a proposal (LINK) ahead of the meeting, including major flag registries Liberia and Bahamas; oil and gas exporters Iran and the UAE; and developed countries Australia, Canada and Spain.
They cited research by Influence Map (LINK) and Transparency International, which warned undue industry influence over shipping talks jeopardised climate action in the sector…
Without further action, the sector’s share of global emissions is set to grow from 2-3% to as high as 17% by mid century, as rising demand outpaces efficiency gains…
Anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International released a report (LINK) on Monday, saying governance flaws at the IMO could hinder its ability to regulate emissions.
Nadja Kostka, one of the report authors: “Our findings show the industry has a much bigger influence in the policymaking process than civil society organisations… which can put the climate goals at risk.”…
Indeed, a note from IMO officials (LINK) confirms that holding receptions and giving gifts are standard features of election campaigning for council seats every two years.
In 2017, “the increased number of receptions” and “apparent value of some gifts… prompted several delegations at [the assembly meeting] to voice concern”.
***Some of the presents left on countries’ tables in the negotiating chamber were so heavy, 137 sets of headphones and five microphones were damaged, the submission reported…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/07/03/un-shipping-body-mulls-curbs-industry-influence-citing-climate-concerns/
00
I wondered where the excutives from FIFA and the IOC went when they retired.
00
So then, what do you reckon, a new definition for Irony.
Midnight last night in South Australia.
I’ve said that South Australia is the second smallest consumer of electricity in Australia.
Yesterday was a pretty huge day for wind power as that huge High pressure system moves away, and the increasing isobars mean more wind in that area, so wind power was way up.
So, right at Midnight, South Australia’s power consumption falls away rapidly, as it does everywhere.
Wind power is smashing it in that State.
Because of what happened in the blackouts there, part of the resulting inquiry was that they must keep some gas fired plants operational to provide a rotating reference for when other plants are needed to be called on line. So, at around Midnight, they wound back the big Pelican Point Unit to zero, and just left four tiddlers at Torrens on line for a total gas fired output of 200MW.
Wind was still high, so, rather than the usual, sucking power from Victoria via the two interconnectors, they were transferring that excess wind power into Victoria via both interconnectors. Those interconnectors carry more FROM Victoria than they can transfer TO Victoria.
At Midnight, with actual power consumption falling away, SouthAus was actually generating too much wind power. Unable to shut off those gas plants, and with both interconnectors carrying capacity, there was too much wind power.
So, they got on the blowers to ELEVEN wind plants and told them to shut down half their wind towers.
Bang!
Minus 400MW in one instant, power in excess, and with nowhere to go.
Irony.
When you depend on wind and there’s too much, then off it goes, because the power being generated must be consumed somewhere.
I have a more in depth explanation at my latest daily electrical power Post, well, the same as here really, but with the images showing exactly what happened and when.
Oh dear!
So, too much wind power is not really a good thing.
And they want to build more of them.
Link to Post: Australian Daily Electrical Power Generation Data – Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Ton
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Just a minute ago I had a look at generation/price. As you say the wind is still blowing’ in SA and Vic but the grid price is > $90 in all states. Qld is back over 6.6 GW thermal and 128 MW hydro which is more than the Tableland stations’ output. This isn’t the way we are told it would happen.
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Tony
I wonder if any of the “knowlegables around Canberra” have listened to Peter Sellars and Co doing “How to win an election – or at least not lose by much”?
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Conservative parties throughout the west have had the goal of “not losing by much”for a while now, hence the reluctance to differentiate themselves from the left. Trouble is, each election cycle the “centre” then moves to the left. Abbott is NOT far right, he is a Menzies liberal.
Trump is the bravest man I know. He has differentiated himself to such a degree that his life and that of his family is in peril. If the leftist forces force him out of office they will then embark on a mission to destroy him and family financially, as a second example, after JFK, to any who dare oppose “The Establishment”.
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I doubt it would work as well for the left this time around. Too many people now are experiencing first hand the real life difference between what the left and what nationalistic Trump can and do offer. Nationalism in the US is on the rise but leftist socialism is still fighting back and is increasing in strength. The clash of such contrasting and increasingly powerful ideologies is not going to end well. It never does.
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As the shrieking democrats get more and more radical and more like genuine socialists the choice is going to become very stark. Barring another financial collapse its hard to see the Dems doing very well in the face of a growing economy and improved employment, despite all the confected outrage.
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Historically what does happen in such similar circumstances is when there is a financial collapse a strong new leader steps in to take control of the nation using a lot of charisma and very little substance, and the result is typically not good. Need I point out to an example? There is no pint at this stage speculating if that’s going to happen again – time will tell. If it does then type of dictatorship is also at this stage unsure. It could be extreme left or extreme right wing. The end result would be pretty much the same in either case, that is not good.
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Tony, why do they have to shut down those windmills completely ?
I know they have pitch control, so why Can they not just “feather” the vanes to slow them down and reduce the output ”
Or if that is somehow not possible, ….why dont they just shut some of them down to reduce total output from the site without these sudden changes in capacity ?
Maybe this modern equipment is not as “smart” as its made out to be ?
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Chad,
I mentioned it in my Post. Those 11 wind plants which did reduce their output were still generating some power, probably around half, so my guess is that rather than turn off five of those plants in totality, they just asked 11 of them to cut back by half, and that way, they don’t have to go through the (whole of plant) start up again, just bring them back on line one by one when the power requirement begins to rise again, which it did, five to six hours later as the morning peak started to kick in.
Tony.
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Ah ! Ok thanks Tony , i didnt pick that up in your post.
Still i find it odd that they make those changes abruptly, rather than modulating them in a progressive manner
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Chicago has gone more than 3 years with at least one homicide per day, often more. Mostly shot, with many more wounded.
This is a city of similar population to Melbourne, with some of the toughest gun laws in the US. Imagine if that was the case in Melbourne or Sydney?
Meanwhile in the UK they are getting all stabby. I think we have a people problem rather than a hardware problem.
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forgot links
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-03/chiraq-it-has-been-1221-days-chicago-had-shootinghomicide-free-day
https://heyjackass.com/
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London now has a higher murder rate than New York. I assume that acid attacks are not fatal so not included.
I suggest that Australia would have a similar murder rate today with or without Howard’s buy back. I didn’t own any weapon then and would still not have one now, [maybe an air rifle] but I resent having my choice taken from me.
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I doubt it very much. Gun murders where on a downward trend pre Port Arthur, and they countinued on a similar trend afterwards. The real problems are the cultures that have grown up in the various places, and cultural equivalence between the US and here is a nonsense.
Having said all that, we have just moved my mother in law out of the south west Sydney combat zone to a life in regional VIC. I can only agree that freely available firearms would make that situation worse.
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I have just watched a doco on History channel, Mateship, aired on the 100th anniversary of the first time US infantry joined Australian troops under Gen Monash, our most revered General. Monash chose the date Jul. 4th to honour the Americans. The Aussies had been in France three years and down on troops, the Yanks were green so they needed each other.
These docos don’t vanish so I’m sure it can be found. For Aussies there won’t be much surprising, we know our wars and how much we depended on the US AFTER the Kokoda Track and the clean up in Buna. I don’t know but I suspect fewer Yanks appreciate how often we have been side by side.
An hour well spent.
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This Yank very much appreciates the brave Aussies who fought along side us Yanks in both World Wars.
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Here’s something interesting:
More from the GWPF
Somebody wants to go to war. By yesterday. Any excuse will do and here’s one.
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GetUp has to release full results of its 2016 membership survey. Should be interesting.
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Electric “fuel” costs less?
Not true …
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160351-tesla-model-3-costs-charge-gasoline-car?auth_param=1eborp:1dc20i1:fa89752adfe0c0eb0fea5e28bfd106b0&uprof=82&dr=1#alt2
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Meanwhile ICE cars continue to develop. Nissan and Mazda are both developing compression ignition gasoline engines that Mazda claims will give 20 – 30% better milage and electronic, fully vitiable valve timing is coming to a showroom near you soon.
https://www.wired.com/story/mazda-injection-compression-skyactivx-engine/
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Bosch have developed an exhaust system that will enable diesel engines now struggling to meet Euro 5 to achieve Euro 6 and better.
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‘If the Prime Minister refuses to concede to any of the National Party’s requests, party leader Michael McCormack could face his first big test.
‘Some Nationals could cross the floor to vote against it, or in a more dramatic development Mr McCormack could withdraw that whole party’s support.
‘That could rattle his relationship with the Liberals but the alternative would leave a number of more outspoken Nationals poised to privately or publicly accuse their leader of failing to flex his muscle.’
ABC
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That’s a tall ask. Let’s wait and see. Abbott has already crawled back to his corner after the rejection by his party of his proposal to withdraw from the Paris Agreement. All that has happened so far for so long is just words, which come cheap. Action is required not just words. However, even Abbott admitted he won’t act – he is a committed supporter of Turnbull remaining as the leader of the party. Abbott openly admitted that all he is interested in is a change in policy not a change in leader. Good luck on that one. Of course things could change and others in the the party might turn against and challenge the leadership but that at the moment looks very unlikely. This is all now like watching the grass grow full of weeds. So we could easily still end up with either Turnbull or Shorten as PM. I wish someone had the guts to get the blow torch out and burn the grass along with the weeds and replant a much better strain of grass.
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I don’t think so, Tony Abbott is not a crawler by any stretch of the imagination.
And noting too that the Nationals have called for coal fired power stations to be constructed as part of their demands to be included in the NEG. And that, according to Black Hand faction member and Minister Pyne the Monash Group including Tony Abbott might have the numbers now. And they did issue that six month notice to PM Turnbull almost six months ago.
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Anybody watch the Sky news “Outsiders” prog tonight ..?
They had a long. 30min discussion with Howard Dewhirst of the Geographical Society of London .
They have written a formal letter to the IPcC totally denouncing the science behind CO2 linkage to climate change .
Very good discussion , well presented, and convincing presentation.. And on prime time National TV.
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Sounds encouraging Chad.
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Poland, the success story of Europe.
Who would think you could use those two words in the same sentence, but it is true. What is remarkable is the contrast with Australia. We should post a link to this story to every politician, especially labor ones who are so committed to high taxes. What isn’t covered is their energy policy, they have not crippled themselves with renewables. They have 6 pumped hydro and another planned so they are willing to make a dollar out of Germany, selling thermal power when the wind drops and buying/selling via the pumped storage.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1F1c3osIDg
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I could care less.
How often have you heard it said? I’m basically a mechanic but even I know that they really mean “I couldn’t care less”.
I have just heard a narrator on a doco about the Coral Sea Battle, making the point that it was overshadowed by Midway [maybe not for Australians] and he said “None the less it’s significance cannot be understated.” Really? English can be flexible but “understated” and “overstated” cannot be confused. His accent indicated that English was his first language.
I’m not being a pedant am I?
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That sort of misuse drives me mad Hanrahan. I wonder at the standard of teachers when most people now cannot differentiate between alternate and alternative, for example. Many people now would wonder what I am talking about.
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