JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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See link for full article.
https://amp.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/19/tony-abbott-tells-party-he-was-misled-by-advisers-over-paris-climate-deal
Tony Abbott tells party he was misled by advisers over Paris climate deal
When the former PM signed in 2015, he said Australia made a ‘definite commitment’
Katharine Murphy Political editor
@murpharoo
Tue 19 Jun 2018 03.24 EDT Last modified on Tue 19 Jun 2018 03.26 EDT
Tony Abbott has claimed he was misled by bureaucrats before he signed Australia up to the Paris international climate agreement in 2015 during another sortie by government conservatives against the national energy guarantee.
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What a mess!
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It should be noted that he was also speaking for the 54 who later sacked him.
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I seem to recall saying something along the lines that these”Cowardly,Lying,Do Nothing,Career Politicians”have NEVER had an original thought in their lives.The”Public Serpents”tell them what to say and do.And Davids link proves I was right,for once.
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The march to groupthink away from individual thought continues….
The Biggest Threat To The Internet As We Know It | Article 13
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READ ALL. THE MOST UNBELIEVABLE LOWY POLL TO DATE.
20 Jun: Lowy Institute: 2018 Lowy Institute Poll
by Alex Oliver
Key Findings…
Climate change and renewables
In 2018, 59% of Australians (up five points) say ‘global warming is a serious and pressing problem’ about which ‘we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs’. Almost all Australians (84%, up three points) say ‘the government should focus on renewables, ***even if this means we may need to invest more in infrastructure to make the system more reliable’. Only 14% say ‘the government should focus on traditional energy sources such as coal and gas, even if this means the environment may suffer to some extent’…READ ALL
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/2018-lowy-institute-poll
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what a joke:
20 Jun: SMH: Huge majority supports renewables over coal even at greater cost
By Nick O’Malley
Australians overwhelmingly believe that the government should focus on renewable energy over coal-fired power plants, even if such a measures were to cost more, the 2018 Lowy Institute’s annual poll on Australian attitudes has found.
When asked if the government should focus on renewables “even if this means we may need to invest more” or traditional energy “even if this means the environment may suffer to some extent” 84 per cent of respondents opted for renewables. Last year the figure was 81 per cent.
The poll also found that the number of Australians who believe that global warming is a “serious and pressing belief” has climbed to 59 per cent, up five percentage points since last year up and 23 points since 2012. Concern about global warming is now as high as it was back in 2006, the previous peak.
This jump in concern about climate change represents the most significant change in opinion ever found by the poll in its 14 years. It also found Australians consider climate change to be the third most significant national security threat after international terrorism and the North Korean nuclear program.
The Lowy Institute’s director of research, Alex Oliver, said she believed that Australians’ concern about climate change began to fall when key pieces of legislation were introduced by the Rudd government to combat it, but when they saw those policies being dismantled, concern for the issue began to grow again.
Ms Oliver said she had presumed that the government’s fierce support for coal power, particularly its call to keep the Liddell power station open, would see support for coal increase this year. Instead the government finds itself out of step with popular support for renewable energy.
According to the research even among those who were most sceptical of climate change – the 10 per cent who say they are sure it is not a problem – 40 per cent still support a focus on renewables. Of the rest of the community, nine out of 10 support a focus on renewables over coal, as do 72 per cent of Liberal-National supporters…
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/huge-majority-supports-renewables-over-coal-even-at-greater-cost-20180619-p4zmcn.html
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Absolute rubbish. Even if the questions were not loaded, the selection not biased, the interpretation not prejudiced, this is a total of 1200 people?
Consider Hillary Clinton was supposed to win in a landslide. Theresa May as well. When have polls been right? Malcolm Turnbull believed the polls, except not really. He defines opportunism. Truth is flexible.
Really just consider 1200 people to be representative of an entire country. Who really believes that, only the journalists and like Turnbull, it suits their purpose.
Practically consider six major cities plus the country. Melbourne and Sydney with say 500 each. 250 people to represent Sydney. 152 councils , say 1.6 people per council. So the opinions of one or two people in Bondi or Brighton tell you what the majority in Bondi or Brighton believe. Really? How did you choose the people?
People hear what they want to hear. A ‘huge majority of Australians’ believe paying more for electricity is worthwhile to save the planet? I call shenanigans. Journalistic claptrap.
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Or to put it another way, it is a big stretch to say a ‘huge majority of Australians’ when you have measured 0.0005% of them and potentially all in the same place like the ABC or Canberra or Paddington or Carlton. They could all agree and it means nothing.
This is on a par with Most Scientists say when you are talking about an alleged 97 people out of say 26 million scientists, say 1% of the world’s population. To argue that they are representative of “Most Scientists” is not remotely possible. I know of around 32,000 who disagree and that outweighs 97. If real scientists used logic and statistics like this, they are not scientists. They could be ecologists or journalists, fakirs or climate commissioners.
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Sorry, if 1% of the world’s 7billion were scientists, that would be 70million scientists, all with opinions.
So John Cook’s final group represented one in a million scientists and really only 1% of the people he had originally asked and so self evidently the sample was selected very carefully. It demonstrates that like Yes Minister, you can get any result you want from a very restricted and highly edited ‘survey’.
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There’s an old saying.Never conduct a poll unless you know what the results will be.
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I remain amazed that not one of Australia’s salaried Climate Commissioners was actually a meteorologist. How did that happen? Why were they appointed and given jobs again? What exactly did a Climate Commissioner do except run around in circle saying ‘the sky is falling’? Did we really pay them so much?
(Flannery was on $180,000 a year for 3 days work a week. That’s a pro rata weekly salary of $300,000 a year.)
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Frankly, I just don’t believe this. Where was the sample taken? It certainly wasn’t anywhere near where I live or the areas where I travel and work. Sounds like it was taken over smashed avos in inner-city enclaves of green true believers whose grip on reality is tenuous at best.
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Obviously the Warmist propaganda program is working, assuming the poll is valid and not itself an instrument of propaganda.
Plus the deliberate dumbing down of the education system by the Cultural Marxists over the last four to five decades or so has rendered most people incapable of independent thought or action.
We and most of the rest of the West have become nations of ignorant fools.
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It seems so, but thankfully we still have our wits.
The best way forward is for the ginger group and Cory to say stuff like CO2 doesn’t cause global warming and coral bleaching happens only during strong El Nino.
Failure to do this means the Cultural Marxists have won.
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Of course it’s working. Otherwise both major parties are pushing their respective almost identical policies on climate change for fear of losing votes and being unelectable. That’s why Turnbull and his mob will continue to fight very hard and fend off any attempt by others in the party to replace them. It will only ever change once the public change. So far that hasn’t happened in sufficient numbers to warrant any change by the majors.
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… and Cory is mute on the subject.
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No he is not. You obviously didn’t see him on Bolt’s show. The only ones that are silent are the LNP including Abbott and co.
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Cory on Bolt’s show is in all practical terms silence. Preaching to the converted does not challenge a survey blasted out on the MSM.
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In that case Abbott not saying the same thing on Bolt’s show is more deafening than silence.
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The Ginger Group
Tony Abbott, Craig Kelly, Eric Abetz, Andrew Gee, Ian Macdonald, Scott Buchholz and George Christensen.
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A possibly naive question but why are they called the Ginger Group?
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‘Former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer has demanded MPs behind the ginger group the Monash Forum change its name by sunset Friday.
‘Mr Fischer is chair of the Saluting Monash Council and has joined General Monash’s great grandchildren in objecting to the use of his name.’
Oz
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Stuff Fischer, bumbling,mumbling head of Nats under Howard. A lightweight that espoused nothing while in Government except pile on homilies and asinine platitudes.None too smart.
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an they are silent.
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They are making headlines for all the right reasons.
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Really? When did Abbot say for example he will withdraw from the Paris Accord?
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I reckon he’ll pull out of the whole thing.
‘Tony Abbott has claimed he was misled by bureaucrats before he signed Australia up to the Paris international climate agreement in 2015 …’
Guardian
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Deep State is not a Hollywood blockbuster, more like Yes Minister with Orwellian overtones.
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So when are we going to see them on Bolt’s show and announcing their agreement with Cory’s energy policies? In case anyone hasn’t see them before here are the ACP’s energy policies:
https://www.conservatives.org.au/our_policies#energy
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He should be backing the ginger group instead of talking about Hewett.
‘Senator Cory Bernardi will today call for the renaming of a literary award created to honour Dorothy Hewett, following allegations the playwright …’
Oz
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He tried that and the so called ginger group chickened out. That’s one reason why he left the Liberal Party. Look if the “ginger group” manage to be be courageous and get rid of Turnbull and his cohorts, and announce policies like those of Cory’s then I will support the new LNP all the way. Cory might even re-join the Liberal Party. Until then a vote for the LNP is a wasted vote.
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If Abbott does return as PM and does a complete 180 on energy polices including the withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord as well as remove all subsidies to renewables then I would vote for LNP instead of ACP.
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Craig Kelly holds the ginger group chair and he wants to pull out of the Paris Accord, so we should be optimistic.
I’m happy to vote for Andrew Gee and give up my informal ways, but if the states sign up to the Neg then all bets are off.
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A South Australian type blackout for a few days across Victoria and right up the east coast including Sydney plus Canberra and to Rockhampton or further north and there wll be a very rapid and very radical change in public attitudes towards the power supply.
Such a cascading failure or just the lack of wind and a large cloudy stationary high sitting over SE Australia for a few days , the odds being that such is an increasingly likely event within the time band of the next five years , and the populace will be all attention, will very, very upset and the will demand the hell with Paris and the politicians who support Paris or anything else thats going to mess our power up and cost us even more of unaffordable amount of our hard earned.
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And don’t be too hard on the populace for not taking much notice of what is happening with our power generating systems here in Australia.
The lack of interest is quite understandable.
Not so long ago our communications ran to the fixed line telephone, the local sporting clubs, the barbeques with friends, the family gatherings which could get interesting if there was conflict in the family tribe, or in the country , a trip to the neighbours for a loan of some item and the reverse when the neighbours came borrowing, the gathering of parents outside of the schools at kid pick up times, the local shopping expeditions
All being personal contact within a limited geographical location and with a limited number of contacts and a limited number of news worthy items to be discussed with weather being the first item of the list as it affected everybody locally.
In short what humanity and our predecessors have been doing for the last quarter of a milllion years and our cultural and personal characteristics have been moulded and shaped by that interaction between generally close associates, family and neighbours.
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Then came the internet and its first penetration into our social life by around 1990 or soon after.
And suddenly there was not only a whole brand new and incredibly expansion in information compared to the immediate past ,an explosion in the amount of data and knowledge that was thrust upon the human race who psychologically were totally unprepared for the avalanche of information wanted and unwanted that they were now having to deal with.
Then came the smart phones and the avalanche of data and information became not only printed but visual with a further explosion of even more data and information impacting on yet another human sensory system.
So now, not only did we have to deal with all those contacts and personal communication channels we had used over the course of milleniums of human contact but we also had to deal with the cascade of information that was just dumped on each of us personally through the medium of the internet and the World wide web.
We have dealt with this avalanche of information by simply shutting off almost totally, probably more than 99% or higher of the potential input of data and information that has continued to pound us minute by minute, day by day right through down through the years.
And out of this avalanche of information, only a shock event that will affect us and the way we live and communicate will cut through these personal barriers created by each of us internally to protect ourselves from the mass scale of information that is cascading onto us.
Such-a shock event will possibly be a major blackout event across all of eastern Australia.
Now that would get their attention.
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Canberra would be OK coz they are 100% ruinable , no probs there.
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Rom is correct. Only a massive power outage will bring the public to their senses. And then politicians beware!
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Perhaps instead the group should call itself the ‘Make Australia Great again’ party.
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I hear Clive Palmer is going to be using a slogan similar to that during the next campaign . . . .
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For those not familiar with what Cultural Marxism is:
https://youtu.be/c7as0pFxPYc
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Interestingly, I notice amongst 20-somethings, they are getting sick of PC and starting to rebel.
Good stuff….
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In other words, tradition is out, progressive ideologies are in. Some say Cultural Marxism is not the same as postmodern NeoMarxism. I say it’s just splitting hairs and they are virtually the same. So this video is as good a critique on Cultural Marxism as it is on postmodern NeoMarxism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4c-jOdPTN8
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Correct David. It is even worse: No warming in Oz for 40 years (Satellite measurements) – https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/15/the-land-that-global-warming-forgot/
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Looking at BOM radar y’day, I’d guess Sydneysiders would have appreciated a little warming.
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I am already warm than you very much – with a gas heater.
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Townsville recorded temperatures colder than Brisbane and Sydney this morning, according to the local paper.
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5°C. I thought my gear was busted because this is the lowest I’ve measured in 29 years, but there were confirming signs eg flies dropping dead, extension leads stiff when being coiled up.
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I have been on a hiding to nothing today over at the Fairfax collective. I don’t know why I bother as I end up in arguments with people who refuse to even consider that the science *cough* may not actually be settled. Even when you point out that alarmist scientists have acknowledged that the models ran too hot, the collective refuses even to question the models.
They truly believe that wind and solar are the future and that coal is history – although they go quiet when I point to Japan, China, India and elsewhere and pose the question, if coal is so expensive compared with solar and wind, why do other countries insist on staying with it? Wind and solar to them are free sources of electricity and they refuse to accept or even acknowledge the environmental damage they cause. And they are rather quiet when I suggest that of wind and solar are so inexpensive, then stop the subsidies.
But for a laugh go over and read there sometime. I believe it is one of the last places you will find where the majority of commenters believe in the 97% of scientists etc.
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We kicked”Windmills”to the curb 60 years ago and”Electric Cars”went the way of the”Dinosaurs”(alongwith the Stanley Steamer)a hundred years ago.So,who in hell thought it was a good idea to go back to a”FAILED”technology?
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solstice in 1.5 days. see http://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-news-update_18.html
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get this: http://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/06/chinas-strategy-of-technology-theft.html
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Knock, knock, knock, knock, knock, knock.
Who is there? Who dere? Who? Huh?
http://balance10.blogspot.com/2018/06/china-uncensored-tech-theft.html
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AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE
The MTPASA result published on 19 June 2018 identifies no Low Reserve Conditions over the next 2 years.
So everything’s OK? No summary available, so appears to be for participants, not the general reader. Doesn’t mention more affordable electricity.
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They are probably correct but what happens after the 2 years? What if as it appears very likely we find ourselves short of power once more coal fired power stations are closed down? Is the government hoping someone will suddenly pop out of thin air a new coal fired power station? Might as well expect a nuclear one if anyone believes in such fantasies. Strange as it might sound it is more likely that Labor will fund and build government owned coal fired power stations before any LNP PM decides to do it. Think about that for a few minutes and any sensible person would have to agree with that notion regardless of how unlikely it sounds. We all know how the ALP like to spend money like there is no tomorrow. So when the big crunch comes along like the proverbial freight train the ALP will do whatever it takes to try and fix things no matter how much it costs. They might be stupid but they are not completely blind unlike the LNP. Don’t get me wrong, I will never vote for the ALP. It goes against my basic principles and hatred of evil.
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Perhaps what they are planning on is more demand management to reduce the peak demands. And probably more closures of energy intensive industries unless prices drop drastically.
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Oh, you mean like more industry closing down and moving offshore, and/or more blackouts?
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Like it or lump it: conservatives stuck if states back plan
The Australian-7 hours ago
Pro-coal Coalition MPs have conceded that they would have no choice but to support an energy policy they believe could be substantially flawed …
Twitter: Jared Owens, The Australian
The Queensland Government insists #Adani must “stand on its own two feet” but could give a helping hand to one of its Galilee Basin rivals…(LINK BEHIND PAYWALL)
https://twitter.com/jaredowens/status/1008918406827896832
Queensland could approve Galilee Basin loan if company not Adani
The Australian-19 hours ago
Qld mining jobs: Palaszczuk to consider mining loan applications just not Adani
Courier Mail – 19 hours ago
20 Jun: AAP: Adani water management condition welcomed (SHOULD ADD ‘BY “ENVIRONMENTALISTS”‘)
Environmentalists have welcomed the Queensland government’s insistence that Adani find the source of local groundwater before it signs off on the water management plan for its $16.5 billion coal mine.
The Queensland government has imposed more than 240 conditions on the Carmichael coal mine project in the Galilee Basin, with 132 of them relating to water conditions.
Adani’s proposed groundwater dependent ecosystem management plan has been slammed by the Australian Conservation Foundation, because it does not identify the source of the Doongmabulla Springs aquifer…
ACF head Kelly O’Shanassy said the state government’s position was a step in the right direction…
Adani said in a statement the plan was a draft and just one of many measures it had put into place to “manage and monitor” groundwater impacts.
The mining giant said its proposed groundwater activities ***had already been given Commonwealth and state government approval, and pointed to a 2015 Land Court ruling against environmentalists, finding mining leases should be granted
https://au.news.yahoo.com/adani-water-management-condition-welcomed-173128902–spt.html
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behind paywall:
Mine jobs are taking off in new coal cycle
Townsville Bulletin-7 hours ago
MINING companies have started a race for workers with an industry survey showing more than half expect to increase their workforce this year…
20 Jun: Daily Mercury (from Press Reader): Mining for more workers in region
BY JOHN MCCARTHY
MINING companies have started a race for workers with an industry survey showing more than half expect to increase their workforce this year and 13 per cent were planning a significant increase.
The Queensland Resources Council state of the sector report also warned of a looming skills shortage and one chief executive said the poor perception of the industry meant it was tough to attract workers despite the average wage of $138,000…
The demand for workers for the resources sector has been highlighted by a significant spike in new projects, particularly in gas, but coal is also showing significant demand.
A separate Minerals Council report showed that Australia would have to increase the number of thermal coal mines and infrastructure in order to capture a massive 400 million tonne increase in demand over the next 12 years from Asia.
“In terms of the sector’s performance, both in volume and value of production, we are at record levels,” QRC chief executive Ian Macfarlane said.
The QRC index for the value of production reached the highest level since its inception in 2006. In the December quarter, the value of production reached $22 billion, a 35 per cent increase on the previous quarter.
Alumina, produced in Gladstone, increased 34 per cent.
“Queensland thermal and metallurgical coal exports (volumes) were up 30 per cent in the December quarter alone — on the back of coal exporters making up on their lost tonnes through Cyclone Debbie,” Mr Macfarlane said.
Meanwhile, Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk confirmed her government would consider other Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility loan applications from miners wanting to start projects in the Galilee basin, so long as it was not Adani.
“Any NAIF proposal will be given proper consideration and assessed on its merits by the Queensland Government,” Ms Palaszczuk said in answer to a Question on Notice from Greens MP Michael Berkman over whether other Galilee basin applications would be considered.
https://www.pressreader.com/australia/daily-mercury/20180620/281663960727709
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China Stone is bound to kick off eventually, the demand is there.
http://galileebasin.org/the-projects/china-stone/
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The best way for Pluckkachook to help the Galilee mines is to build an electric rail line and to operate it. Let the mines do their bit and Qld Rail do their’s. There will be profit for both.
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What about a Maglev HSR built at Chinese expense? No more fly in fly out and Mackay would boom.
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HMMMM
http://bit.ly/2tnuTDd
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‘…perceived scientific consensus …’
The power of groupthink in the modern era, I blame the MSM.
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I blame smart phones… but people believe the MSM, so there needs to be as concerted effort to promote the awareness of the reality of fake news as much as anything else.
Once the public realizes they are being systematically lied to by the Dark State, only then can they start to question.
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My sorta DIL cheerfully admits she gets all her news from twitter, absolutely never reads a paper in print or online. She’s a watermelon of course.
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And once the do find out that they have been”Hoodwinked”,I wouldn’t want to be in the”Fake News Medias”shoes.There will be alot of VERY angry people looking for someone to blame.Then we may see lots of”Baseball Bats”become very popular.
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19 Jun: SMH: Politics Live: Labor to oppose stages two and three of government’s income tax package
Q19 – Dixer
Question from Queensland ***Liberal Scott Buchholz to Environment and Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg.
Buchholz asks about policies to reduce power prices.
Frydenberg says Labor left behind a huge mess and ignored warnings.
He says the Coalition plan is reducing energy prices and securing better deals for consumers.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/politics-live-coalition-and-labor-in-game-of-chicken-over-tax-cuts-20180619-p4zmao.html
Buchholz a “Liberal” above; a “National” below:
***Murphy writes: “Queensland ***National Scott Buchholz raised concerns about high energy prices”, then pivots instantly to Zimmerman supporting NEG:
19 Jun: Guardian: Tony Abbott tells party he was misled by advisers over Paris climate deal
When the former PM signed in 2015, he said Australia made a ‘definite commitment’
by Katharine Murphy
Tony Abbott has claimed he was misled by bureaucrats before he signed Australia up to the Paris international climate agreement in 2015 during another sortie by government conservatives against the national energy guarantee…
With these two parliamentary sitting weeks the last remaining window for internal opponents to try and blow the policy off course, Abbott raised objections, as did Eric Abetz, Andrew Gee, Ian MacDonald and the voluble Liberal Craig Kelly.
Kelly, who is the chair of the government’s backbench committee, continued to insist that emissions reduction in the electricity sector should be delayed, and that large energy users shouldn’t be part of the putative system.
According to people present, Abetz, the Tasmanian Liberal, attempted to argue during Tuesday’s meeting that Abbott hadn’t given hard commitments when he took the decision to sign the government up to the Paris agreement – that Australia’s undertakings were always aspirational.
Abbott then told colleagues he’d been misled by bureaucrats during the Paris commitment process about the impact of the commitment.
At the time he took the decision Abbott said something quite different…ETC
Abbott, the former prime minister, also argued on Tuesday that the owners of the Tomago aluminium smelter were opposed to the Neg, which imposes reliability and emissions reduction obligations on power retailers and some large energy users from 2020.
***The energy minister, Josh Frydenberg, begged to differ, noting they were supportive of the policy, as were several other big corporates.
***During the discussion, the Queensland National Scott Buchholz raised concerns about high energy prices. The New South Wales Liberal Trent Zimmerman rose to support the policy.
The 10 August meeting will either make or break the Neg. Any single state or territory has the power to veto the policy, and a number are concerned about the lack of ambition in the emission reduction target…
Shorten noted an “insurgency from the right” and he said the Neg had “fairly lame targets”…
For months the shadow climate change minister, Mark Butler, has pointed to the lack of ambition in the Neg emissions reduction target as being a significant problem, and he has argued Labor would need to scale it up significantly in the event it ultimately accepted the mechanism.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/19/tony-abbott-tells-party-he-was-misled-by-advisers-over-paris-climate-deal
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19 Jun: SMH: Tony Abbott steps up attack on Malcolm Turnbull’s climate plan
By David Crowe
At one point Mr Abbott claimed he was “misled by bureaucrats” over the cost of the emissions cut he helped decide as Prime Minister in 2015, which was taken to the United Nations climate talks in Paris that year…
Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg defended the National Energy Guarantee against the criticisms and cited support from industry executives to assure backbenchers the plan would succeed…
Labor is attacking the guarantee for cementing cuts that it regards as too weak while Mr Abbott and his colleagues argue the targets are too ambitious, adding to the obstacles to an agreement in Federal Parliament…
Mr Abbott challenged Mr Frydenberg to address concerns aired by Tomago Aluminium chief Matt Howell about the unreliability of renewable energy sources and the fact that its battery system would only last minutes when the smelter in NSW needed power for hours.
Mr Frydenberg replied by telling the meeting he had spoken to Mr Howell before the Coalition party room meeting and could assure MPs the Tomago chief supported the guarantee.
Mr Frydenberg also cited support for the guarantee from steelmaker BlueScope and mining giant BHP Billiton, according to government MPs in the room…
Mr Abbott argued in the meeting that the target was “aspirational” but Mr Frydenberg said this was not the case, quoting the former prime minister’s own words from three years ago.
In September 2015, Mr Abbott said: “Unlike some other countries which make these pledges and don’t deliver, Australia does deliver when we make a pledge.”…
When Senator Macdonald questioned why Australia had to reduce any emissions, Mr Turnbull responded by emphasising the need to ensure the guarantee delivered on the targets agreed in 2015.
Mr Turnbull told the meeting that Australia had to “do our bit” to reach the target.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/tony-abbott-steps-up-attack-on-malcolm-turnbull-s-climate-plan-20180619-p4zme5.html
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ABC, dare I say, “gleefully” reports: ***China’s President Xi Jinping also edged out Mr Trump, with 43 per cent of those surveyed thinking he would act responsibly, compared to just 30 per cent for the US President.
so far more Aussies prefer Communist dictator for life, Xi Jinping, over the democratically-elected US President? unbelievable:
20 Jun: ABC: Donald Trump a ‘critical threat’ to Australia’s interests as trust in US hits record low, Lowy survey reveals
ABC News Breakfast
Australians’ trust in the United States as a world leader has dropped to a record low as two out of five people consider President Donald Trump a “critical threat” to Australia’s interests, according to the latest Lowy Institute poll…
The 2018 report, released today, found Australians’ trust in the US to act responsibly in the world dropped from a peak of 83 per cent in 2011 to just 55 per cent this year.
The UK, Japan, France and India all recorded higher levels of trust, with China, Russia and North Korea falling below…
Lowy poll report author Alex Oliver said the results were a concern for both nations…
Lowy doesn’t ask the question on trust every year, but instead revisits it when it appears relevant again.
Trust levels were as low as 60 per cent in 2006 when George W Bush was US president, and rose significantly during Barack Obama’s terms, only to drop again under Mr Trump…
In the report’s preface, Lowy Institute executive director Michael Fullilove echoed this sentiment and wrote it was clear Mr Trump’s election had impacted the survey response.
“There is no question that Donald Trump’s presidency has eroded Australians’ trust and confidence in the United States as a responsible global actor,” he said…
The poll also surveyed Australians on how much confidence they had in world leaders to “do the right thing regarding world affairs”, with Mr Trump again falling below the leaders of the UK, France, Japan and India.
***China’s President Xi Jinping also edged out Mr Trump, with 43 per cent of those surveyed thinking he would act responsibly, compared to just 30 per cent for the US President…
One of the most significant findings of the report is 42 per cent of Australians listing the presidency of Mr Trump as a “critical threat” to “Australia’s vital interests” when presented with a list of possible threats.
This polled higher than other options, such as foreign interference in Australian politics and China’s growing power.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-20/donald-trump-a-threat-as-trust-hits-new-low-lowy-institute-finds/9879924
no surprise Malcolm Farr takes the anti-Trump line as well.
btw what does “Mr Trump is falling in our ***stigmatising” mean?
20 Jun: news.com.au: Australians don’t trust US President Donald Trump compared to other world leaders, says Lowy Institute poll
AUSTRALIANS have made it crystal clear they are not in the Donald Trump fan club in a stunning new poll.
by Malcolm Farr
AUSTRALIANS have made clear they are not in the Donald Trump fan club, just over 500 days into his presidency.
We simply don’t trust the US President compared to other world leaders, according to the annual Lowy Institute poll released today.
And this lack of faith in him is infecting our opinion of America’s reliability.
Only 30 per cent of those surveyed said they had confidence in Mr Trump doing the right thing in world affairs, putting him just ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin on 19 per cent and Mr Trump’s recent summit partner Kim Jong-un of North Korea on a miserable five per cent…
Chinese President Xi Jinping was rated a more trustworthy world leader on 43 per cent…
At the other end of the scale, Australians had great faith in Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, on 68 per cent and 66 per cent respectively.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull rated 63 per cent in the confidence stakes…
A separate survey, by Essential Media, confirmed Mr Trump is falling in our ***stigmatising.
Just 22 per cent of those surveys said they had a favourable view of him, compared to 33 per cent in July last year.
His strongest Australian supporters were Liberal voters (30 per cent) and those who noted “other” (38 per cent)…
The most popular world’s leaders, each with a 54 per cent favour ability rating, were New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau…
However, Trump or no Trump, our ties with America continue to be important for a large majority of Australians
Some 76 per cent — same as last year — said the US alliance was important for Australia’s security and 64 per cent said Australia should remain close to the United States under Mr Trump.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/australians-dont-trust-us-president-donald-trump-compared-to-other-world-leaders-says-lowy-institute-poll/news-story/4a72e59645b7e689f3e70cdae4c90e86
with Adern and Trudeau at the top of Essential’s pop list, it’s clear their poll is even sillier than Lowy’s, if that is possible.
30
Either the polls are distorted or a lot of people are even dafter than I had already supposed. How sad. They lumber the rest of us with the results of their stup1dity. 🙁
63
One downside of democracy, unfortunately….
50
Trump speaks in hyperbole. Trump is coarse by his very nature.
Obama, by contrast was measured and smooth.
Obama inherited wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and left an unbroken trail of destruction from Afghanistan to Mali, and a new war in Syria that has killed about 5 times as many people as died in Iraq. He spurned a refugee problem that is proving disastrous to Western Europe.
Trump, on the other hand, has been standing up to Russia, calmed Syria, and may denuclearise the Korean Peninsula. His speech in Warsaw was EPIC.
I know which I prefer.
160
Obama also received the Nobel Peace prize for doing nothing but becoming President. Trump on the other hand is doing his very best in making world peace and has done far more than Obama could ever dream off while the Democrats are trying to make war yet they refuse to accept even the possibility of Trump receiving the same prize. Goes to prove the left are on the side of pure evil.
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He will never get the NPP and I doubt he would care. The reason he won’t get it is because Kim would need to share it and that would never do.
I’m reading there will soon be a summit with Putin. The war-hawk cabal heads would explode.
50
They would happily give Kim the Nobel Peace Prize, it’s the sharing it with Trump that they’d baulk at. Remember that Yasser Arafat won the prize for not killing anyone for 4 years, (or he didn’t brag about it in those last 4 years).
50
I agree. I said before if I were Trump and was offered it I would reject it and explain why. Basically it’s not worth a cracker given Obama has one.
30
The US itself seems calmer. There have been no race riots and you hardly ever hear of BLM now.
60
too busy working
70
Might that be that real work pays better than protesting?
20
Fits as a follow on IMO
Dylan Thomas “A job is death without dignity, as opposed to real work”
10
Lowy Institute! Say no more.
40
‘President Xi Jinping also edged out Mr Trump, with 43 per cent of those surveyed thinking he would act responsibly, compared to just 30 per cent for the US President…’
Here we see the beginning of the end for the Alliance.
30
Mr Howell must have changed his mind very quickly if what Fraudenberg is saying is true. I can’t believe that a man in Mr Howell’s position could support the NEG. If that were the case, he is agreeing to bear more costs for the plants supply of electricity, and still will not get a guarantee of supply.
40
Otherwise the Board may have given up on any rational policy in Australia and have decided to move operations to some other country. They are saying nothing to alert the government to that, while they make their preparations so they don’t get frantic Ministers wasting their time until they are ready to move.
30
The most likely scenario.
After seeing the vacant buildings at Kurri Kurri Aluminium and hearing some of the close shaves and shutdowns at Tomago there only seems to be one option, the one you outline.
An orderly withdrawal would be cheaper.
It is bizarre to see President Turnbull lecturing Labor in parliament over their holding the IPCCCCC position when he has subterfuginous intertwining mechanisms in Electricity pricing that scour more hidden cash to “support” renewables than Laba could every dream of.
The thought that someone could be two faced is something that I’ve not needed to confront in a long time but there it is.
KK
20
The most likely scenario.
After seeing the vacant buildings at Kurri Kurri Aluminium and hearing some of the close shaves and shutdowns at Tomago there only seems to be one option, the one you outline.
An orderly withdrawal would be cheaper.
It is bizarre to see President Turnbull lecturing Labor in parliament over their holding the IPCCCCC position when he has subterfuginous intertwining mechanisms in Electricity pricing that scour more hidden cash to “support” renewables than Laba could every dream of.
The thought that someone could be two faced is something that I’ve not needed to confront in a long time but there it is.
KK
10
IT’S AN ALL-OUT ASSAULT ON REASON; OBVIOUSLY AUSTRALIA IS SEEN AS THE ONLY “RENEWABLES” GAME IN TOWN, MONEY-WISE, FOR THE CAGW MOB, SINCE CHINA BACKED DOWN.
***NOTE HOW AFR REMEMBERS TOMAGO’S HOWELL RE COAL FIRED PLANTS:
19 Jun: AFR: BNEF report says renewables can make Australia a cheap energy superpower again
by Ben Potter
Australian can regain its former position as a cheap energy superpower suitable for industries like aluminium smelting by embracing cheap wind and solar energy backed by battery, hydro storage and gas, a new report says.
“Renewables will become the backbone of the system and will provide reliable power for most of the time, and then batteries, pumped hydro and gas will be part of the equation to smoothe out the variability of wind and solar energy and provide a backstop at times of low winds and prolonged cloud cover,” said Kobad Bhavnagri, head of Bloomberg New Energy Finance in Australia.
“That is the way that Australia can once again become a cheap energy superpower and industries like aluminium smelting will relocate onshore.”
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) released its New Energy Outlook (NEO) 2018, predicting that wind, solar power and batteries will get cheaper, eclipsing coal power as a source of generation in Australia by 2035 and virtually eliminating it from the energy mix by 2050.
The view is consistent with that of British billionaire Sanjeev Gupta, whose family company GFG Alliance bought 51 per cent of SIMEC Zen Energy in order to power the Liberty OneSteel steelworks at Whyalla with a “Greensteel” clean energy, gas and storage mix, and is pursuing a “Greenaluminium” plan in Scotland.
***It is in sharp contrast to that of Tomago Aluminium managing director Matt Howell, who said last week – after the smelter near Newcastle had to switch off potlines three times in three days because of soaring electricity prices – that aluminium smelting can only survive in Australia if new coal plant is built…
Reliability through diversity
Mr Bhavnagri said reliability could be achieved through diversity in the geographies in which wind and solar generation is located, and in the technologies used to back it up, and that like “no serious person” was suggesting that a smelter could be powered by just a single wind farm next door.
That is what far-sighted business people like Sanjeev Gupta can see – and they are putting patient capital behind renewables,” he said.
While arguments about the transition to clean energy continue to plague the Turnbull government, in the market, the debate is over, says the NEO 2018.
Regardless of whether the government gets its National Energy Guarantee through the party room, renewable energy such as wind, solar, batteries and hydro storage will be at least 45 per cent of generation by 2030 – double the nominal 23 per cent Renewable Energy Target – 74 per cent of generation by 2035 and 92 per cent by 2050.
Solar panels “behind the meter” in homes and business premises will generate more power than coal by 2035. Wind and solar generation, and battery and pumped hydro storage make up 87 per cent of all new capacity additions between now and 2050 – a US$138 billion ($185 billion) investment opportunity. The balance will be made up by gas plant.
Only one coal plant – Vales Point, owned by Trevor St Baker and Brian Flannery – will be extended, the NEO contends, and no new coal pant will be built – provided governments to do not succumb to ***fringe political pressure to subsidise construction…
“This year’s NEO confirms that cheap renewables combined with improved battery storage will eventually mean the demise of Australia’s coal-fired power plants,” said Leonard Quong, senior associate at BNEF.
“New coal will not be able to compete with increasingly cheap electricity from wind and solar, balanced with battery storage and other flexible technologies like hydro and gas. As existing coal generators reach end of life, they will not be life-extended or replaced.”
The dramatic shift will be underpinned by further sharp falls in the cost of clean energy. BNEF estimates the cost of new power from coal plant refurbishments at $US57 per megawatt hour today compared to $US48/MWh for new solar photovoltaic, $US44/MWh for new wind and $US109/MWh for new battery capacity.
By 2050, there will be no contest: new wind and solar power will cost $US20-21/MWh, new battery capacity will cost $US42/MWh and new coal power will have fallen just a dollar to $US56/MWh.
“Australia’s power sector is rapidly reorienting itself based on the economics of clean energy,” said Mr Bhavnagri. “New technology has set a path for Australia to achieve near-zero emissions power by 2050.”…
Globally wind and solar generation will be 50 per cent of generation by 2050 with $US548 billion invested in batteries between now and 2050 and $US11.4 trillion new generation – including $US8.4 trillion in wind and solar and $US1.5 trillion in hydro and nuclear power.
(PRESUMABLY PIVOTS BACK TO AUSTRALIA FOR THE NEXT & FINAL PARA)
Coal-fired capacity falls from 25GW in 2017 (generating 65 per cent of the country’s electricity) to 23GW in 2025, 18GW in 2030, and just 6GW in 2040. BNEF’s forecast sees it gone almost completely by 2050 – assuming there are no government attempts to save it with subsidies.
https://www.afr.com/news/bnef-report-says-renewables-can-make-australia-a-cheap-energy-superpower-again-20180619-h11l6k
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It’s seldom I use this strange new vernacular but here goes!
LOL
It’s definitely moving in the right direction.
After delivering 65% of the generated power in 2017, it’s now
fallen dramatically to72%.And just how accurate are those totals for the years quoted.
As of 2017, the total was 23GW, not 25GW, and the total right now is 23GW, so in effect nothing closes until 2025 as those figures say.
And say, what do you do when this happens.
A huge High pressure system hovering over SouthAus and Victoria for most of Monday. That same area holds just under 70% of ALL Australian wind plants (a Nameplate of 3608MW of a total of 5222MW) At 6PM, the Peak Power time for Australia, ALL of those wind plants in that area were delivering 210MW. Australia was actually consuming 32000MW.
So, 70% of EVERY wind tower in the Country was delivering ….. 0.66% ….. of the power to keep Australia running.
Coal fired power currently has 4 Units off line so the total Nameplate on line and delivering power comes in at 21000MW.
At that same time wind was delivering less than 1% of the power required to keep Australia in operation, coal fired power was delivering 19600MW of that total 32000MW.
That’s at a operational Capacity Factor at that time (6PM) of 93.3%.
Those poor old, clapped out, useless, soon to be phased out, and demolished, good for nothing coal fired machines.
Who needs ’em, eh!
Tony.
See yesterday’s Post of mine at this link.
170
The Capacity Factor for coal fired power is 19600MW/21000MW – 93%
Actual supply at that 6PM time was was 19600MW/32000MW, or coal fired power delivering 61.25% of the power at that time.
The average coal fired power delivery across the whole day was 18200MW/25200MW or 72.22% of all required power.
Tony
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Tony:
From Matt Canavan in today’s The Australian…probably paywalled but this excerpt backs you up fully.
And from the graph NEW coal was as much as the COMBINED increase in wind and solar (endlessly heralded as the start of the switch to renewables by you know who).
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/the-death-of-coal-power-is-greatly-exaggerated-in-certain-quarters/news-story/3405161c6cd39dce37e5e98ebe866f81
When the Hazelwood power station in Victoria’s Latrobe Valley shut down last year, the Australian Conservation Foundation claimed its closure was a signal “the era of polluting coal is coming to an end”.
… In the past year, global electricity production has increased by 590 terawatt hours, almost half of this rise coming through the greater use of coal. In effect, in just one year, the equivalent of almost 30 Hazelwoods has been brought online. So much for an end to the era of coal.
Last week BP released its respected Statistical Review of World Energy. It showed a resurgence in the growth of coal-fired power after a few years of moderate decline. These earlier declines had been heralded as the death of coal but those claims have been shown up for the exaggerations they were.
90
O/T this but did you catch this on AEMO Dashboard
19/06/18 14:15
Qld was redlining on both into NSW and
the price was $13.80
I sent Jo a screen capture
20
El Nino expected later in the year, on track for Ian Wilson’s hypothesis to come good.
Will it be a Modoki?
40
Hoping for that cold pool off WA move further west and be replaced by warmer stuff. Given BoM reactive forecasting(?) about Nina or Nino in the past,I think I’ll have along beer.
30
There is a clear and unequivocal regional cooling signal in Queensland.
‘With southeast Queensland currently shivering through a cold snap, the Far North won’t be far behind.
‘A high pressure system hovering over South Australia is directing a cool, dry air mass north through the state.
‘It is expected to arrive in the Far North around Wednesday, bringing lower minimum temperatures with it.
‘Cairns will get down to 14 degrees on the forecast for Wednesday morning, but the Tablelands will get quite a bit cooler with minimums of seven degrees at Mareeba and predictions of frost.’
Cairns Post
31
Too cold for beer in Perth. However, a glass of MR or Frankland red would do nicely thanks.
10
Anyway,a bottle in front of me rather than a frontal lobotomy.By the way how do you titillate an Ocelot?
10
Am unable to respond to that on this blog.
10
Maybe you gotta oscillate something.
00
behind paywall a new Russell Gold/WSJ article:
How a Florida solar and wind farm operator became a $100bn green goliath
The Australian-9 hours ago
The Florida company has grown into a green Goliath, almost entirely under the radar, not … That year, GE bought Enron’s wind business out of bankruptcy.
by Russell Gold
Twitter: Russell Gold, WSJ
TWEET: 18 Jun: Can you write a WSJ front page corporate profile with ZERO help from the corporation? Yeah you can. It’s not easy, but you can. (LINK)
reply: Bill Payne: Liberal arts ‘educated’ scam/fraud? (LINK)
Gold links to WSJ – behind paywall:
18 Jun: WSJ: Russell Gold: How a Florida Utility Became the Global King of Green Power
NextEra became a renewable-energy Goliath using tax subsidies to help finance projects around the country and avoiding debt — staying quiet about it all
Who is the world’s largest operator of wind and solar farms? It’s also America’s most valuable power company. Still stumped? It’s by design.
“That is a marketing problem…that we foster intentionally,” Michael O’Sullivan, NextEra Energy Inc.’s head of renewable development, told University of Notre Dame students in 2015…
—
the Bill Payne reply links to the following chaotic website, but check the info on NextEra:
Updated Tuesday June 19, 2018: New Mexico ‘powers that be’ lose?
How a Florida Utility Became the Global King of Green Power
Tweet to Russell Gold
http://www.prosefights.org/irp2014/windscammers7.htm#gold
reminder:
17 Jun: AmericanThinker: Norman Rogers: Dumb Energy
In the supposedly hard-headed Wall Street Journal, Russell Gold writes that “global investment in wind and solar energy is outshining fossil fuels.”…
The obvious conclusion is that the global warming scare is more propaganda than substance…
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/06/dumb_energy.html
10
“the Bill Payne reply links to…..” Bill Payne? I see what he did there
10
comment in moderation re: How a Florida solar and wind farm operator became a $100bn green goliath
The Australian-9 hours ago
10
Through climate-change, a coral has the means,
To thrive and cope by epigenitic genes.
Academics at a college are not free,
If forced with warmist dogma to agree.
Renewables are not a great success,
And far too often leave grids in a mess.
Though ‘carbon’ trading will not warming end,
It pays for some a handsome dividend.,
90
More from renew economy which flies in the face of reality
https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-fake-arguments-against-100-renewable-energy-65406/
50
Maybe is he took a few moments to understand those concepts and especially the pesky number behind them , rather than busying himself putting them in “quotes”, he might actually come to understand how blindingly dumb his commentary is.
70
Merkel doing a Trump!
19 Jun: ClimateChangeNews: The ice beneath the EU-China climate bonhomie
When it comes to clean technology, German chancellor Angela Merkel says China is no longer seen as a developing country but a competitor
By Karl Mathiesen
Angela Merkel has revealed the frostiness beneath Sino-European climate bonhomie, one day ahead of crucial ministerial talks.
Prompted by a question from China’s lead climate envoy Xie Zhenhua, the German chancellor questioned China’s developing country status, citing its success in clean technology innovation…
China in particular has sought to reinforce a clear division between rich and poor, while Europe argues for universal standards.
The two economic giants meet in Brussels on Wednesday to try and break the impasse. Xie and EU climate commissioner Miguel Arias Cañete will join Canada’s environment minister Catherine McKenna to lead two days of climate talks with ministers from major economies…
But just a day before the meeting begins, at a separate round of climate talks in Berlin, Merkel dropped in to give a speech and answer some questions. Xie asked Merkel to comment on how shared technology could help achieve climate targets.
The chancellor fired back: “Technological innovation needs to come from industrialised countries. But China is a leading country in technological innovation as well and I’m really interested in how you are manufacturing battery cells and other technological innovations and in some aspects we do not consider China as a developing country, but as a competitor.”…
Frauke Urban, a researcher at SOAS University of London, explained Merkel’s touchy response…
Chinese climate negotiators had long argued they needed developed countries, such as Germany, to share technological advancements with them in order to develop more cleanly, she said.
However, according to Urban’s research, the flow of the world’s clean technology, once definitively ‘north-south’ has been complicated by China’s rise. Chinese low-carbon tech has established and growing markets in many major economies and is competing for market share in the developing world.
Batteries are a particularly sore point for car-proud Germans. Their auto industry watched with alarm as China became the world’s leading manufacturer of electric cars, then threatened to impose electric vehicle quotas that could shut German laggards out of the massive Chinese market. While China’s battery industry grows, Germany no longer produces cells…
The solar industry in China was kick-started by tech transfer from developed countries. By 2015, China had seven of the world’s top ten solar PV companies.
The Chinese wind industry would not exist were it not for German firms. But now even giants like Siemens are feeling the heat as Chinese upstarts Goldwind and Mingyang catch up with them on patenting new innovations…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/19/ice-beneath-eu-china-climate-bonhomie/
20
19 Jun: ClimateChangeNews: Merkel: Auto and coal workers need to know what their next jobs are
At a meeting of climate ministers in Berlin, the German chancellor stressed the importance of re-training to help people take part in a greener economy
By Caitlin Tilley
Speaking at the Petersberg Climate Dialogue on Tuesday, the German chancellor promised to protect workers in the shift to clean energy.
For the first time, the annual meeting put a focus on the social aspects of climate action, under the heading “changing together for a just transition”.
Merkel assured workers they would not be left behind in Germany’s climate policies: “Changes are going to happen, but we are thinking of you first, and not of the CO2 emissions first.
“If people get the impression that CO2 emissions are considered more important than their fate, we will not have acceptance for our projects.”…
At the end of talks, co-chairs issued a statement (LINK) calling on negotiators to step up the pace of talks on a rulebook to implement the Paris Agreement, due for completion in Katowice this December.
It emphasised the importance of early action to cut emissions and scale up climate finance to developing countries.
Another element of the discussion was biodiversity, brought to the table by French minister Nicolas Hulot…
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2018/06/19/merkel-auto-coal-workers-need-know-next-jobs/
the statement is not worth linking to, but here’s a taste:
Draft co-chairs’ conclusions
Petersberg Climate Dialogue IX – Changing together for a just transition
Berlin, 19 June 2018
(excerpt from Session 4: Climate Finance)
Several provided evidence on the progress made towards scaling up climate finance to deliver on the joint commitment by developed countries to mobilize 100 billions USD p.a. by 2020 from a variety of sources. This includes significant scale-up of climate finance by MDBs. Ministers highlighted the importance of public finance for unlocking the trillions of private investments. In this regard, they emphasized the need to further develop and improve the use of various financial tools such as green bonds, carbon pricing, de-risking instruments as well as reassessment of subsidies…
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19 Jun: CarbonPulse: RBS fraud lawsuit: Former trader says initial rise in spot EUA volume not suspicious
A sharp rise in EUA spot trading in early 2009 was initially thought to be more likely due to a natural maturing of the carbon market rather than tax fraud, according to a former trader at UK bank RBS on Tuesday during a trial over a £160 million ($212 mln) lawsuit.
lengthy…and unsatisfactory:
19 Jun: CarbonBrief: Zeke Hausfather: Explainer: How scientists estimate ‘climate sensitivity’
For many years, estimates have put climate sensitivity somewhere between 1.5C and 4.5C of warming for a doubling of pre-industrial CO2 levels. This range has remained stubbornly wide, despite many individual studies claiming to narrow it.
Here, Carbon Brief examines studies of climate sensitivity published over the past two decades. These studies use climate models, recent observations and palaeoclimate data from the Earth’s more distant past to estimate climate sensitivity.
There appears to be no evidence that recent studies show a substantially different range of sensitivity than in the past, though some approaches generally result in lower or higher sensitivity than others.
While narrowing the range of sensitivity will not change the need for rapid decarbonisation, it may help policymakers fine-tune their plans for the future…
Ultimately, just how warm the world will be in 2100 depends as much or more on the amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere than on the precise value for climate sensitivity.
ONE COMMENT
Marcel Crok: The elephant in the room is of course this recent paper (LINK) by Lewis and Curry. It lowers the 5-95% range to 1.05-2.45 C! Way down from the uncertainty range of the Otto et al paper.
Moreover, the paper deals with several of the papers mentioned here (e.g. Marvel et al).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-scientists-estimate-climate-sensitivity
30
The carbon brief article seems to be sticking to the IPCC, saying that ECS most likely is averaging around 3%, certainly no lower than 2%. However, recent work by skeptics indicate that ECS is a lot lower – around 1.6%. As they say, after 30 years, you would have thought that the huge ECS variation of 3 times would have been narrowed down to a smaller range by now.
10
Graeme No.4 from Graeme No.3
Try http://notrickszone.com/2018/06/04/atomic-physicist-human-co2-emissions-have-an-equilibrium-climate-sensitivity-of-a-not-important-0-02-k/
“Dr. Boris M. Smirnov, a prominent atomic physicist, has authored 20 physics textbooks during the last two decades. His latest scientific paper suggests that the traditional “absorption band” model for calculating the effect of atmospheric CO2 during the radiative transfer process is flawed. New calculations reveal that the climate’s sensitivity to a doubling of the CO2 concentration is just 0.4 K, and the human contribution to that value is a negligible 0.02 K.”
The resident troll was not impressed, he called for reinforcements and tried to kill discussion.
From memory Prof. Richard Lindzen came up with a similar figure a few years ago but had to increase it to 0.6 to get it through peer review.
40
Thanks G. Lots of other links and useful info there. However, if I understand Smirnov correctly, he is ONLY talking about the human-induced part of ECS, i.e. 3-5% of the total ECS. This would provide a much lower figure than the usual ECS figures stated.
00
And still, these estimates of Climate/Carbon Sensitivity are simply fairy tales built on nonsense science.
Why bother when all it’s doing is giving the scam more oxygen.
Even in Australia the difference in atmospheric temperature between day and night is significant. Likewise the effect of orbital mechanics in producing our 4 seasons is a factor.
Solar flares, some say, have ups and downs every 20 years or so.
Against these factors the damp squid of Man Made Global Warming or death by incineration from excess CO2 is a scientific joke.
The proposed CO2 heat trapping mechanism in our well mixed atmosphere is a scientific nonsense.
When will it end,
KK
41
comment in moderation beginning with: 19 Jun: CarbonPulse: RBS f***d lawsuit: Former trader says initial rise in spot EUA volume not suspicious
19 Jun: WUWT: Pielke’s retort to AP’s Seth Borenstein: “how climate change is making us dumb”
by Anthony Watts
Yesterday, Dr. Roger Pielke Jr. responded to Seth Borenstein’s Tweet about his article in the Associated Press on the upcoming 30 year anniversary of Dr. James Hansen’s Climate Predictions from 1988. Borensteins title was:
“Warned 30 years ago, global warming ‘is in our living room’”
Here is the series from Pielke’s Twitter feed…
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/06/19/pielkes-retort-to-aps-seth-borenstein-how-climate-change-is-making-us-dumb/
20
Giles tries again:
19 Jun: RenewEconomy: The fake arguments against 100% renewable energy
By Giles Parkinson
It might be tempting to think that the energy wars are being fought only on the political front, between left and right in parliament and on the front pages of mainstream media, and in the market-place between technologies old and new, dirty and clean.
But over the last few years a furious battle has also been raging in academia between those who say we can and should shift towards a 100 per cent renewable energy grid, and those who say we can’t possibly, that we should stop renewables in their tracks and choose nuclear (or “clean” coal) instead…
The coal industry is satisfied because coal and nuclear share a common lack of flexibility, an attachment to ***increasingly redundant concepts such as “baseload” and a centralised grid, and until carbon is priced the coal industry reckons it can beat nuclear on cost, and so protect its turf…
The latest salvo has been fired by two UNSW academics, Mark Diesendorf and Ben Elliston – the authors of a series of landmark studies since 2012 on how Australia could shift to 100 per cent renewables, and do so cost effectively…
Diesendorf and Elliston say that the principal barriers to 100 per cent renewable electricity are “neither technological nor economic”, but instead are primarily “political, institutional and cultural,” and the protection of vested interests.
***The head of the world’s biggest utility, China State Grid, has said much the same thing…
https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-fake-arguments-against-100-renewable-energy-65406/
response to Giles:
18 Jun: GlobalTimes: China to build nuclear tech college amid talent shortage
By Yin Han
China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), the country’s leading nuclear power developer and nuclear power plant operator, has signed a contract with the government of Tianjin Municipality to invest in a nuclear technology university in Tianjin, local reported on Saturday.
The university would be built as a national level institution and would function as a base for skill straining, Master’s and PhD programs, and core technology research and development, the report said.
China has a comparatively intact nuclear industrial system. However, few nuclear related fields such as nuclear fusion, uranium enrichment and post-processing “differ widely from each other, and the existing nuclear related majors in universities and colleges cannot satisfy the demand for talent,” Science and Technology Daily reported, citing Wan Gang, a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference National Committee and director of the China Institute of Atomic Energy.
Wan said only 20.29 percent of 2,300 graduates CNNC has hired majored in nuclear-related courses. A CNNC development report says that colleges and universities can only satisfy less than half of the company’s demand for talent for the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20)…
***”China has many nuclear power projects and will continue to develop, which has led to a severe shortage of nuclear talent in power plant design, engineering construction, operations and security control,” Wang told the Global Times on Monday…
***Thirty-one nuclear power units were operating in China as of June 2016, with 23 more under construction. The China Electricity Council said in 2016 that China will have the second most nuclear power plants in the world.
Many Chinese universities offer nuclear technology-related programs, including Tsinghua University, Peking University and Xi’an Jiaotong University.
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1107304.shtml
10
The Photon and Unsettled Science
I have read several articles over the past few weeks which question the notion that light consists of particles (photons). One was provided by Peter S.
Richard Feynman clearly thought he understood photons. His Nobel prize in Physics was because of his work on Quantum Electrodynamics. But was he correct?
It seems strange that a bedrock principle of modern physics can now be questioned. Einstein’s photo electric effect explanation (1903) started it all. The idea of light particles interacting with electrons seemed attractive at the time. But it caused all sorts of problems.
One issue is the concept of black body absorption, which assumes that all the light energy intercepted must be absorbed. That idea underlies the Green House Gas Theory.
Is light actually a wave only as Maxwell said? Quantised interactions of light waves opens up new understanding. Radiation transfer might involve only some light waves (the ones with higher energy than the target). If that is the case the basis of the Green House Theory is undermined.
31
Hi Peter,
Many decades ago when studying physics at uni it was understood that light could be variously thought of as being either a flow of discrete energy parcels ( photons ) or a wave form. This was just to enable quantification of various properties of light. Two working models of the same thing each helping to visualize various features of the behaviour of radiated energy.
The model is only useful if it works but I don’t think that the mechanisms being proposed for CAGW thing are at all real.
CO2 cannot trap heat in the atmosphere.
It’s all too much. While we sit here huge amounts of cash from our inflated electricity accounts are being transferred to the belly of the green beast for “use” by private interests.
They have won.
KK
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They have Won for Now, Keith.
Sadly we have been unable to head off all the pain which will now be endured until the inevitable crash of our power systems. However reality cannot be avoided for much longer. If new coal or nuclear power stations are not planned now, they will not be ready as the old plants are retired. By then I will have installed my own diesel generator.
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ANTI PHOTON
W E Lamb Jnr
Applied Physics B, February 1995, Volume 60, Issue 2–3, pp 77–84
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01135846
Willis Eugene Lamb Jr. (/læm/; July 12, 1913 – May 15, 2008) was an American physicist who won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1955 “for his discoveries concerning the fine structure of the hydrogen spectrum.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willis_Lamb
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The term “photon” is nothing to be concerned about. It is just a useful tool.
A few minutes later we could describe the same parcel of light as a “wave”.
These concepts are very basic and should not really be the cause of any dispute. The really contentious issue is the nonsense that CO2 is supposed to trap heat and hold on to it.
Basic physics of gases denies the “holding”.
But if you cover that truth with enough “science” people get confused.
KK
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It has been raining a lot in Perth lately, which is normal for this time of year. One thing I didn’t realise is that Perth receives more annual rain than a lot of cities:
Perth — 733mm
Melbourne — 663mm
Paris — 641mm
Hobart — 614mm
London — 584mm
San Francisco — 537 mm
Adelaide — 530mm
In the catchment areas of the Darling Ranges, Perth receives up to 1200mm+. Despite the delusion from the government agencies, Flannery & the MSM that because of “Climate Change” the decreasing rain will not fill Perth’s dams, the reality is different. On Warwick Hughes’ blog, he points out the greatest problem is not a decreasing rainfall but a dramatic fall in catchment efficiency, due to poor catchment management, from 1994. Of course, there is an ever-increasing population to provide for, with no new dams on the books.
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I’ve always said that you could lots of bets at the pub, based on the fact that Perth receives more rain than Melbourne. Certainly vanishes quickly though – doesn’t do much for our dam levels.
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Graeme#4, follow the link to realize that the rain doesn’t just vanish but the catchment areas need vegetation thinning. The Catchment Efficiency, shown on Warwick’s graph, has plunged from 6% in 1994 to under 2% now.
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Read the story of the catchment areas problems some time ago from that website. Interesting. However, surely there are other signs of reduced rainfall in WA’s SW, such as the lack of water in the caves.
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As we are doing a bit of science down here in the cellar, for an update on battery technology as it applies mostly to EV’s a look at Paul Homewoods’s Not a Lot of People Know That blog is quite illuminating re battery technology and the supplies of cobalt and nickel for the cathodes in the batteries as well as the so far inability by battery researchers to find any better combinations of metals or materials to give higher densities of electric power for the future EV’s.
I personally doubt that EV’s in their current form will be anything more than short lived passing fad maybe for a decade or so before being phased out and replaced by fuel cells of some sort which will use many of the EV’s developed systems to increase efficiency in vehicles.
Fuel cells of course will only become viable after either a mass building and installation of the SMR’s [ Small Modular Reactors ] which is only a few years away from going full commercial, meaning there will probably be ample electrical power available to process fuel of some type for fuel cells use.
And / or the harnessing of controlled Fusion which would make the electrical power available in very large amounts to process materials or gases or liquids to make fuel to power fuel cells.
How Battery Chemistry Assumptions Distort Nickel And Cobalt Demand Forecasts
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Small modular reactors are a likely way forward. They have already been proven in many Navy Ships and a few civilian ones, eg NS Savannah.
Cold fusion is probably a pipe dream.
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SMR’s are a goer I believe.
Cold fusion is a No Go!
Although the US Navy is still playing around with the Polywell reactor which was giving some strange results some years ago before the US navy researchers buttoned their lips on its still ongoing low key experiments.
Hot fusion confined by magnetic fields such as the Lockheed Skunk Works “Compact Fusion Reactor” plus a half a dozen others, Bill Gates plus a few other billionaires have inveasted some hefty sums into a couple of these experimental fusion reactor concepts ., will sooner or later crack hot compact fusion reactors for commercial use .
The rewards are just far too high for the first few fusion reactor designs not to make an absolute killing in the defence and commercial fields when and if they get a sustainable and useable fusion reaction going in a reactor somewhere.
There are a couple of dozen Fusion reactors being designed and in the experimental stages.
From The World Nuclear Association
Nuclear Fusion Power
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The operative words there ROM are “when and if”. I am not saying it can’t happen but it is a big ask to replicate the conditions in the Sun here on Earth and on a small scale.
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Spot the clanger in an article by Oliver Milman in The Guardian titled “Ex-Nasa scientist: 30 years on, world is failing ‘miserably’ to address climate change”:
It was repeated further down the article!
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Oh, look, quick, how cool is this?
What a great idea? (and for the second time in one day, I’ll use one of those new vernacular thingies….. LOL)
The ABC has very excitedly touted a new solar pumped hydro scheme for Nth Queensland. (in the article at this link)
They use the solar power generated by the panels during the day to pump water up the hill to the holding reservoir, and then during the evening Peak, they let the water flow back down the slope through the turbines to generate power they can sell to the grid at the high prices during that peak.
And the Fed Govt’s NAIF is chucking in the $516 Million as a Loan for part of it. But wait, the company is in discussions with banks to provide the remainder of the funding required, so that $516 Million is just the start of the cost.
It will generate 250MW!!!!!
You know, 0.83% of the actual Australian Demand at that Peak time.
$516 Million for 250MW. Hey but don’t worry. Renewables are sooooo cheap!
Tony.
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If the SA 129 MW battery only cost $100m, which I doubt, it seems it would be cheaper using two of those.
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Stage III is a wind farm. The prevailing wind is a sou easter ie parallel to the coast. The afternoon sea breezes won’t get that far inland and won’t power a wind farm anyway. Besides I’ve heard that wind farms don’t work well anywhere in the tropics.
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Its even worse Tony.
The basic source of the power is the 200 MW (nameplate) solar farm.
So, on a good clear day in summer that should supply about 1000MWh /day to the pumped hydro.
At 75% round trip efficiency, the output from the hydro generators will be 750 MWh available for the peak periods….or 3 hours at 250MW …maximum
But again on a cloudy winter day…..well they better have that fossil powered back up available !
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I should add….
The above assumes that the hydro facility has enough water capacity/pond sizes , to allow that much storage ?
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Chad, you have just made the point I have tried to make in the past: Pumped hydro is a +ve for thermal generation. This project will also cause a small reduction in the HV transmission losses, south to north. Being a disused gold mine the infrastructure already exists including a pipeline to the Burdekin for top up water. If this can’t work, nothing will.
If politicians and alarmists had left the grid to the engineers who know about it pumped hydro would not be needed but with the severe damage the grid has already suffered, PH is the best band aid.
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I find it hard to believe they will have enough storage ..or water,..for that much storage.
Assuming they have a 100m elevation availanle ? Then for 250MW it would require about 10 million cubic meters of water per hour..say 40 million in the system
That implies a 40m rise/fall in a reserviour 1km square…both at the high side and the low side !
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Oh boy its getting silly now…
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-20/solar-farm-integrate-pumped-hydro-storage-$500m-loan-aus-first/9890466?pfmredir=sm
And…within the story, the cause of high powet bills…surprise…no outright mention of a the RET…
“The biggest culprit has been the network component — the cost of transporting the electricity.
Next comes the retail component — the cost of billing and servicing the customer.
Then there is the wholesale component — the cost of generating the electricity.
And finally, the government policy component — the cost of environmental schemes that we pay for through our electricity bills.”
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Ok, anyone over 40…what woukd if happened if we as kids had this “diagnosis”…
http://m.raisingchildren.net.au/articles/oppositional_defiant_disorder.html
The poor little petals…
“What is oppositional defiant disorder (ODD)?
Oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) is a childhood behaviour problem. A child with ODD won’t do what people ask, thinks that what she’s being asked to do is unreasonable, and gets angry and aggressive about being asked to do things.
All children are disobedient and cranky sometimes, especially if they’re tired, upset or frustrated. But a child with ODD behaves like this a lot, and the ODD behaviour is so severe that the child has trouble doing ordinary, everyday things.”
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Prescribed cure:
A damn good whuppin.
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Did any one watch the program on George Lazenby ( the second James Bond) a few nights ago. He had oppositional defiant disorder in a fairly extreme degree. And he never grew up. If some one told him to do something, even if it was for his own good he would do the opposite.
Consequently he only made one movie. It was quite a good one and he could have had a really good movie career, even if he only did James Bond.
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Try the Site “Food intolerance network”
I had very serious reservations about their claims on the effects of food additives until a few years ago after suffering for some 3 or 4 years with a lead ball type feeling just below my diaphragm and a constant low level of frequent nausea which got better sometimes and then got worse again
The browse though the “Food Intolerance Network” lists of symptoms gave a suggestion that my trouble could be Calcium Propionate , an anti fungal preservative the super markets were putting in their plastic covered bread to stop fungal infection and into a lot of other stuff as well.
Calcium Propionate has since been quietly removed I think from bread products due to the serious effects on health including severe behavioural problems in children.
I have since found I have now become very intolerant of dairy products and I loved my milk and cheese and butter, an intolerance I have just found and which has caused me serious grief over the last couple of years including long bouts of coughing up sputum during the night with a considerable loss of sleep and all that implies.
Plus another couple of rather nasty additives which in the last week or so , considerable care in selecting foods that don’t have these additives listed on their labels in the super markets has brought a brand new lease of life and a very big change in attitude towards life to this oldster.
Numerous personal stories on this site indicate some very marked improvements in personal health and even more surprising there are numerous stories from parents with almost uncontrollable kids who have remarkable turn arounds in behaviour when some of these food additives are eliminated from their diet.
And I was one of those who didn’t really believe in any of this stuff until my own problem with Calcium Propionate surfaced and I suffered badly for some 3 or 4 years but found and completely eliminated the problem after perusing this web site.
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I had the same trouble with calcium propionate ROM. It seemed to be in all bought bread over here some years back and I had to stop eating it. I made my own. In England it was still in use but seemed less so than here but I largely gave up bread and other products that could contain it (don’t have all day to read miniscule labelling). I hardly ever eat such things now but if I can’t avoid them (so many events rely on wheat-infested products and sugar) I always live to regret it!
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When I moved to the United States, I could not eat the bread. The smell is so off putting. It smells artificial. It could be the edible rubber they put in it. So I bought a bread machine and bake my own.
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Well Tony, if you don’t LOL (!) you would cry instead, for the sheer ignorant/arrogant stup1dity of it all.
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That was a reply to #28.
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Thanks Annie,
I usually just sit here dumbfounded now when I read bovine waste product like this. Up this Thread, Ian1946 linked to an article at Renew Economy by that parko bloke.
I usually go to the links and read what they have to say, and just shake my head. Then I read the comments below, and the head shaking becomes absolute jaw dropping amazement at how little people actually know.
As recently as five years or so ago, I would have left a comment there, but I know a lot better than that now. These people already have all the answers without even bothering to go and check for themselves.
Tony.
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Indeed Tony, most of the articles there are a complete fantasy. They are always pushing EV’s or telling us how renewables are going to replace coal power. As you point out what is more mind boggling is the number of comments that suport the ludicrous statements put forward.
Some people really are stupid and scientifically illiterate.
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Interesting wind energy specific thread
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https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/06/magical_wind_power_illusions_versus_reality.html
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$516 million loan to finance next stage of Genex’s Kidston project, generating 500 jobs
CHRIS LEES, Townsville Bulletin
June 21, 2018 12:00am
Subscriber only
UP TO 500 jobs will be generated from a massive and innovative energy hub.
Genex Power said the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility’s support for a $516 million loan will help finance stage two of its Kidston project, north of Townsville.
Executive director Simon Kidston said Genex was on track to complete financing by the end of this year.
“Just with stage one, I think a fair chunk of those (jobs) will come from Townsville,” he said.
Mr Kidston said by next year there would probably be 500 people working on construction.
A 250 megawatt pumped storage hydro project and 270MW integrated solar project are the next stage of the project.
A 50MW solar farm has already been built on site.
There are plans for a wind farm on site for stage three of the project.
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The south has been becalmed all day. Just now is the first time I’ve seen anything other than a duck egg for SA wind, it is now the princely return of 9 MW.
Meanwhile Qld is working flat out, exporting 1.3 GW which must be close to capacity for the interconnector. Once in a blue moon a thermal gen set trips and the battery comes to the aid of the party and it is shouted how bad coal is but unreliables have been hopeless all day. Ssh! Say nothing.
But we are all paying for it:
Spot Price (30min)
SA
$354.72/MWh
Vic
$232.56/MWh
Even the white knight, Qld
$169.71/MWh
We should be able to fine them for failure to deliver.
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Do those figures mean Qld is making a cool qtr mill every hour with exports? If Joh Bjelke Peterson were still premier, he would be building a new power station already. He loved them and the industry they enabled.
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GE got kicked out of the DOW 30 index yesterday. It looks like basing your business of government green subsidies has not work out so well for them. This is one of the reasons that I have avoided buy stock in them.
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