Oops!. OK There are two in a row because of a computer glitch last week. I put off the double one then til this week, and totally forgot I had prescheduled that errant extra unthreaded. – Jo
Why not look back at your postings from 5 years ago and see how much progress there has been. A review of what was new 5 years ago will often now show how things are going. Maybe things have move in the wrong direction as some feared it would.
I often look back at what has been just to see where I am.
Just a thought.
McLean, de Freitas and Carter have made a clear prediction — cooling over the end of 2010 and beyond (depending on the future track of the SOI. This prediction treats the effect of CO2 increases as negligible.
Let’s have the Warmist’s prediction in the same unambiguous language and see what actually happens. (If they are too chicken to make one, we can just use Hansen’s old prediction, which is already way out of the money.)
It’s put up or shut up time, warmists; and Nature calls the game. This is how science is really done.
The information you link to provides zero support for the McLean, Defreitas and Carter prediction of sharp global cooling starting in 2011, for the following two reasons:
– your link doesn’t relate to global temperatures
– your link does not display sharp cooling starting in 2011
Yes, Manalive, thank you for confirming for us that McLean, Defreitas and Carter have made their prediction, and been proven conclusively wrong by subsequent real-world observations.
Incidentally, be very careful of placing your faith in the UAH data – it has been found that it had some very wrong adjustments that were being made to it.
Yes, well, according to you, all of the data seems to have had some very wrong adjustments made, at one time or another, so none of them can now be trusted to act as a baseline. Without a reliable baseline we have nothing to support a warming/cooling argument, other than religious belief.
But there again, the global warming scare was always been about belief, and not so much about fact. That was why the meme name was changed from global warming to climate change, when reality was at variance with belief. “We’ve just gotta keep up with the latest scientific fashions …”
Never mind the “global warming scare”, what we are looking at here, with the benefit of 5 years’ hindsight, is the prediction by McLean, Defreitas and Carter of a “global cooling scare” starting in 2011.
A prediction that has clearly not come to pass.
Clearly, the global cooling alarmism of 2010 was incompetent. *Some* of us were sceptical of it at the time – and being sceptical has now been validated as the correct position to take with respect to “global cooling” alarmism.
I think we can safely say the models have failed, but more to the point lets see your tipping point.
You will remember from previous paleo discussions that cool wet summers in Europe are a fair indication of regional cooling. Coupled with freezing winters every couple of years and its game set and match.
“Coldest June in 92 years. You have every reason to complain about the weather. Trøndelag has not experienced such a cold first half of June since 1923.
“Since the daily measurements of mean (average temperature through the day) began in Trondheim in 1870, it has been measured an even colder first half of June only once, 92 years ago.”
At the beginning of June this year there was snow falling in Turkey and the US. The Great Lakes had one of its biggest freezes two years in a row. Lots of snow in Europe and the US. Global sea-ice extent is at a maximum. Australia’s ski season starts early, along with winter in most of the country. Northern Europe has just experienced a cold snap that allowed polar bears to nab a few unlucky dolphins (and that’s evidence of global warming?). The melt season in Greenland is very late. Summer in SE Aus was very mild.
The only places in the thermometer record to be much warmer than average are large areas with a single unreliable station and sea surface temps that are infilled or adjusted.
If we use the unadjusted USCRN for US temperatures as a proxy for unadulterated global temperatures, its been slightly cooling for 10 years.
The dip into the last LIA was slow but this time around when they go back to making cider in England it will still be the hottest year eva!
What “models” am I supposed to be remembering, exactly? Richard Lindzen’s incompetent “predictions” of post-dated temperature falls that had never occurred?
Ah, Archibald. The temperature in one town in the USA is a proxy for the entire world, for the purpose of supporting his Solar Cycle nonsense. Great model, that one.
Cheering on David Archibald for being “still on track” is right up there with Eric Moussambani’s fan squad for optimism.
Let’s just recall Archibald predicted a 2.5 degree drop in temperatures in 2014.
Reconsidering, I now say Moussambani had a better chance at gold than Archibald does of being anything like remotely correct with his insane solar cycle gibberish.
‘What’s rather striking is that the flat-lining of stratospheric temperatures since roughly 1998 corresponds quite remarkably with the current pause in surface temperatures.”
1. Have you mistaken the graphic of David Archibald’s model as “observations” of some sort? Where are the observations that validate his prediction for 2.5 degrees of cooling?
2. This is the North Atlantic cooling that has been predicted by climate models since as far back as the 1980s? Well done to David Archibald for getting up to speed on this.
3. You’re saying Steven Capozzola has understood that there is such a thing as variation? Bravo!
‘This is the North Atlantic cooling that has been predicted by climate models since as far back as the 1980s?’
That would be Wally Broecker’s Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?”
David Archibald can stand up for himself, my prediction is for a noticeable drop in temperatures within a couple of years. The hiatus cannot last forever.
El Gordo has some kind of prediction for noticeable drops in temperature in the near future.
I thought I’d check out the history of such statements, and I found one from 2010 that is particularly amusing:
‘My prediction, for what it’s worth, is that global SST will be 0.1 – 0.15C below Jan 2008 levels by spring 2011.’
What really happened: http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AMSRE_SST_2002_thru_July_7_2011.gif
I’m only a straight man in need of a comic, if you could get rid of that chip on your shoulder we would make a great duo.
Apparently large areas of Norway are still snow covered in summer.
‘Satellite measurements show that 23 percent of land area in southern Norway is still covered in snow, nearly five times more than normal in June, says senior forecaster Eirik Malnes.’
Craig Thomas: What does the graph you’ve posted really tell us? The left-hand vertical axis is simply labelled ‘anomaly’. From what time period? The corresponding right hand axis covers close to one degree Fahrenheit.
This graph is deceptive.
Let’s have the actual temperatures, not anomalies.
Let’s not have an exagerrated vertical scale to give a misleading impression of temperature increases.
While I’m at it, let’s not have more fiddling with graphs by those who should know better to show a rising temperature trend line from about 1900 to the present date, when the data for the last 17 years or so show quite a different character, the so-called ‘pause’ – actually year to year oscillations. You’ll find the ‘pause’ buried among others at the GISS website, as well as lots of other places. To put a line of best fit through a graph like this is nonsensical.
Any warming over the last century has been trivial – less than a degree. As I never tire of pointing out, pre-1750AD the CO2 levels in the atmosphere were 280ppm. Now they’re 400ppm, a 43% difference. CO2 is still a trace gas, and it’s obvious that it’s made no difference over the centuries. Life goes on, and the climatic Armageddon hasn’t happened. The IPCC has had since 1988 to come up with the evidence that we face serious danger, and hasn’t done so.
Craig: The text comments thus: “The chart above shows a projection of temperatures to Feb 2011. The chances are that the present warm spell will end quite suddenly before the end of this year. Over the next few months the SOI will indicate whether or not the cooling will continue beyond Feb 2011. Evidence from studies on past climate and sunspot cycle related effects gives a strong indication that the cooling will continue.”
Cautiously worded.
As the IPCC are always at pains to point out, a projection is a suggestion as to what might happen, it’s not a firm statement of what is actually going to occur.
The co-chairs of negotiations on a new UN climate pact will prepare a slimmed down text next month to help jolt the process following two weeks of scant tangible progress at talks in Bonn.
The UNFCCC is working towards a global deal to bind all emitters from 2020 around national contributions, a mechanism to ensure those pledges collectively reduce emissions by enough to limit global warming to 2C, and provide hundreds of billions of dollars to help poorer nations tackle climate change.
Parties had been tasked with trimming a 90-page document over the ten-day negotiations, but the meeting ended on Thursday with a working version just five pages shorter.
France’s ambassador for climate change, Laurence Tubiana, who will steer the process towards a final deal at the December Paris conference, insisted the Bonn session had been useful to allow all 195 nations feel they were part of the process.
“It’s about trust, trust, trust. With this, there is no issue we cannot solve,” she told reporters.
A changed work structure of smaller break-out sessions around each issue has markedly improved relations compared to the procedural bickering that marred the talks last year, said Jonathan Grant of consultancy PwC, representing business association IETA.
“The fact that parties allowed the co-chairs to write a new text is evidence that there is more trust in the process,” he said.
TALKS LAG BEHIND
Observers had expected little of substance to emerge from the main track of the meeting as officials lack the authority to relinquish their hard-fought options and wording in the paper.
“Negotiations on substance are still lagging behind the political will we see outside (the UNFCCC),” said the EU’s delegation leader Elina Bardram, referring in particular to this week’s G7 agreement and the recent spate of national pledges.
The EU and the bloc of Least Developed Countries urged the co-chairs to publish the new text earlier than the planned July 24 date.
They said this would allow ministers to discuss it at an informal meeting in Paris on July 20-21, after which they could mandate officials to whittle down text at later official sessions.
There are two week-long UNFCCC sessions ahead of the main December meeting, one from Aug. 31 to Sep. 4, the next from Oct. 19-23.
MARKET TALKS OVER
Technical work on carbon markets made no formal progress, offering no guidance on how the growing global patchwork of national and regional market-based mechanisms will fit into a future international climate framework.
Parties opted to postpone work on the Framework for Various Approaches and New Market-Based Mechanism to the Bonn session in June next year, skipping the December Paris talks entirely.
“It was felt that there were so many other issues to be tackled in Paris that there wouldn’t be time, which was disappointing,” said PwC’s Grant.
He said several options for how the Paris deal will include the use of markets remain in the main negotiating text and will be discussed at the December summit.
A long-gridlocked section of the talks to reform the CDM made no decisions and agreed to resume in December, with parties and observers invited to submit further views by Sep. 21
REDD VOID
A technical body was tasked in Bonn with completing the few outstanding items on a standardised list of recommendations for developing countries to include in their REDD plans when seeking funding to protect tropical forests. It finished its work two days early, bucking the trend of slow progress elsewhere.
Its agreed text brought to an end ten years of negotiations and was hailed as a significant breakthrough by observers, although the guidance was dubbed “minimal” by the REDD+ Safeguards Working Group, a civil society coalition.
It paves the way for REDD+ to be included in any climate change deal that would hopefully be agreed in Paris, said Rachel Mountain of the Global Canopy Programme, a UK-based think tank on safeguarding tropical forests.
“There will be ever more scrutiny on whether REDD finance will be sufficient to address the deforestation challenge,” she said.
The agreement caps a breakthrough deal at the 2013 Warsaw UN climate conference that passed a series of resolutions to pave the way for REDD’s eventual use as a source of offset credits for regulated markets and to encourage richer nations to donate cash to kick-start REDD initiatives.
Public funding has dominated REDD so far, with governments contributing around 90% of $9 billion pledged to date to halt tropical deforestation responsible for around 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Countries hoping to access those funds are expected to publish a national REDD strategy, create a monitoring system for projects and provide information such as how local communities are involved and biodiversity preserved.
Many parties and observers recognise that government funding is insufficient but the outlook for the private sector is unclear.
No industrialised nation has yet included provisions for REDD to help meet their INDC mitigation commitment, leaving developers to seek out alternative interim sources of funding for their REDD credits, such as a future round of the World Bank’s Pilot Auction Facility, the Green Climate Fund or demand from the aviation sector’s global offsetting scheme due from 2020.
China’s wind farm firms are feeling the heat as state grid operators deliberately delay hooking them up and cut back on purchases, wasting about a fifth of the total wind power output or enough electricity to run Beijing for 40 days.
China is now the world’s top wind power producer thanks to policies designed to boost renewable energy use, with an installed capacity of over 100 gigawatts – more than a quarter of the world’s total and almost enough to light up Spain.
But capacity has raced far ahead of grid construction, with state grid operators reluctant to connect wind farms in remote areas as long as their profit margins on renewables lag that of coal-generated electricity.
Instead, they are resorting to a practice known as curtailment, or slowing the connection of wind turbines to their grids and limiting the use of wind power. This in turn is leading to wasted capacity and lower returns on wind power investments.
“Considering the huge growth in wind installment we saw last year, curtailment is going to be a big problem (for wind power producers) … China is one of the worst countries affected,” said Shanghai-based Shane Sun with international renewable energy consultancy MAKE.
In the first three months, curtailment almost doubled from a year ago to 10.7 billion kilowatt-hours, nearly a fifth of total wind power generated in China, official data showed. That’s equivalent to output generated with about 3.5 million tonnes of coal, or 7 percent of China’s first-quarter coal imports.
BREAKNECK EXPANSION
Meanwhile, generating capacity expansion continues at breakneck speed. While China still relies on coal for most of its power generation, it has more than doubled its installed wind power capacity in the past five years, and Beijing wants to double it again to 200 GW by 2020 with annual investments of $27 billion.
As if that wasn’t incentive enough, state-run power producers are also racing to build capacity to lock in current prices ahead of an official cut next year.
But this expansion coincides with China’s economic slowdown and a sharp decline in the pace of growth in overall power demand, which rose an anaemic 0.8 percent in the first quarter, its slowest rate in more than five years, industry data showed.
INFLATED PRICES
While listed wind firms have seen their shares surge 18-38 percent this year, compared with a 17 percent rise on the broader Hang Seng index, some industry insiders are urging investors to rein in their enthusiasm.
“I’m not entirely sure where the optimism came from,” said an executive at top power producer Datang Power, a sister company of wind farm operator Datang Renewable and a wind farm owner.
“Overall electricity demand is very weak. It is unlikely wind power will outshine others.”
Analysts said wind-related stocks like Datang Renewable have risen partly on expectations of higher wind speeds in China this year after they were down 8-12 percent in 2014.
The former governor of Massachusetts is under investigation for diverting money from state funds to use for travel, advertising and other misc. expenses. Rep. David Linsky, House Post Audit Committee announced the investigation on Thursday against his fellow democrat.
Linsky said:
“As is my practice in all investigations, we will always go where the evidence takes us.”
According to the Boston Herald, Patrick diverted 27 million dollars he could use as a slush fund to avoid cutbacks in the budget. Between 2011 and 2014, Patrick and members of his administration spent 1.35 million dollars in overseas travel, including $535,558 in hotel costs, $332,193 in airfare, $305,976 for limousines and ground transportation, and $175,000 in miscellaneous travel expenses.
One of the slush funds was administered by longtime Patrick confidant, Betsy Wall and it sent $17 million to Connelly Partners, an advertising firm that handles advertising for the Massachusetts tourism department. That money will be investigated because either it was laundered or it was spent on advertising for tourism. Either way, Patrick will be in trouble as it’s illegal for him to spend money not allocated by the state legislature. I’m sure the state will make sure the money went to advertising and not part of a kickback scheme.
The bulk of the money was supplied by the Massachusetts Convention Center Authority. A spokesperson for the MCCA said they transferred the money at the request of Gov Patrick. Other money came from Massport and the Mass Tech Collaborative. The money that came from MTC could create even bigger problems for Patrick as they receive federal money annually and were also granted money by Obama’s stimulus package, making it a possible federal crime.
China is now the world’s top wind power producer False. In 2014 it produced 158.4 TWh, but the US produced 183.6 TWh keeping China in second place.
with an installed capacity of over 100 gigawatts – more than a quarter of the world’s total True: capacity totalled 114.6 GWh at end 2014, some 30.7% of the global total. However, the average power output was just 18.1GW, for a capacity factor of 15.8%
enough to power Spain False. Spain consumed 277.8 TWh of electricity in 2014, and as much as 317.9 TWh in 2008 before recession and the end of their property bubble hit – twice as much as China’s wind production (ignoring the problem of dispatchability).
it has more than doubled its installed wind power capacity in the past five years True: but it’s much more than that. In 2009, capacity was just 25.9 GW
An object lesson in just how far you can trust modern journalists – even from a so-called reputable business provider of news such as Reuters.
Small typo: it should of course be 114.6 GW not GWh (the perils of contributing after I should have gone to bed).
That does give me the opportunity to point out that China’s total power generation amounted to 5,649.6 TWh, so the 158.4 TWh from wind was just 2.8% of electricity supply.
The pre-Paris wind-up continues apace, this time with the Pope about to formally plunge his oar into the eco-mêlée in the form of an encyclical, the infallible statement of guidance made from a position of absolute authority ordained by God. Inevitably, it will try if not split the populous of faithful as has already been suggested by The Telegraph:
Pope Francis’s encyclical on man-made global warming due on Thursday has already drawn disapproval from US climate change sceptics
In the highly anticipated letter, the Pope is expected to blame global warming on human activities. It has already drawn a strong chorus of disapproval from conservative politicians and climate change sceptics.
The Telegraph’s deliberate linguistic polarisation of the debate into the orthodoxy v ‘conservatives’ and ‘sceptics’ that is so toxic, typical and misleading of the MSM, even the diluted liberal ‘right’, who also appear to strenuously avoid pointing out the obvious, The Church would do well to remember its historical separation from State and bear in mind that they are not qualified to comment about UN klimate machinations, well, unless they happen to be Pontificating from on High.
Its interesting to see the CAGW machines’ religious “arm” kicking into gear. This seems to be a blatant and desperate attempt to create a “moral” dimension to the argument using the RCC to establish “moral cred”.
The reality is the RCC is by its actions and theology, is actively working against Christianity if you compare what it teaches against the Bible, and the fact it may side with eco-paganism shouldnt surprise anyone. Base don the histiory and the unchanging coe of the RCC, we may see it take a more “back to business” role in denouncing “eco heretics”.
Irelands recent embrace of “gay marriage”, Irealnd being traditionally a RCC stronghold, may spur the RCC to try and be more “relevent” by embracing the new eco-religion.
If you look biblically, yes we are required to be good Stewards of the planet, however Christianity also requires honesty of people. Lying about climate change while pontificating about morals is a lethal “hung on ones own petard” waiting to happen. However, based on the history of the RCC, assuming at its core it has never changed ( its seems not to learned from history ), then if its given a whiff of power trading on the eco-religious “piety”, we could expect the RCC to attempt to end-run around Christianity, just as CAGW has attempted an end-run around Democracy.
A small but important part Steve
The recent referendum was in the Republic of Ireland, which is (or was) predominantly Protestant and could now be more properly considered secular.
It is Northern Ireland (and part of the United Kingdom) that is predominantly RCC.
I would be genuinely interested to know in which part of the world they teach that the Irish republic is (or was) predominantly protestant and that Ulster is predominantly catholic.
Sorry, Rod, you’ve got it ar$e about face. Having spent some time in Ireland I can tell you it is the other way around. Ian Paisly was a virulent Protestant and very N Ireland. The catholic priest is the most important person in every small community in the South.
PeterPetrum – you have watched too many episodes of “Father Ted”. The Most Important Person is the Community Welfare Officer, the parish priest relinquishing this post when Eire joined the Euro.
Since the banking crisis half the population are on weekly benefits. Next Sunday they will all pack the churches to hear his Holiness beseeching them to build more windmills. Still a couple of pints of Guinness restore the equilibrium.
I can only chock up my misconception as cognative dissonance I guess.
I was about a month on the Emerald Isle in my youth, visiting rellies. They were all staunch Orange Presbyterians, and once in a while I noticed a rather vulgar reference to ‘de Catlicks’. Back in Oz, I fell in love (temporarily) with a wonderful Irish lass from the North, who is a died in the wool Catholic. I guess that’s the reason I formed that opinion. It’s a lot like people believing that carbon dioxide has some effect on the atmosphere, because it seemed like a good notion at the time.
Politicians who lack long term vision should be restrained. In the past 85 years we have made tremendous technological progress and I expect this should continue no matter what the current flock of politicians say.
Here’s an article on the bogus methodology behind the US Government (mal)nutrition guidelines. If you think about it; obesity from eating is a form of malnutrion.
The Scientific Report of the 2015 Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee was primarily informed by memory-based dietary assessment methods (M-BMs) (eg, interviews and surveys). The reliance on M-BMs to inform dietary policy continues despite decades of unequivocal evidence that M-BM data bear little relation to actual energy and nutrient consumption. Data from M-BMs are defended as valid and valuable despite no empirical support and no examination of the foundational assumptions regarding the validity of human memory and retrospective recall in dietary assessment. We assert that uncritical faith in the validity and value of M-BMs has wasted substantial resources and constitutes the greatest impediment to scientific progress in obesity and nutrition research. Herein, we present evidence that M-BMs are fundamentally and fatally flawed owing to well-established scientific facts and analytic truths. First, the assumption that human memory can provide accurate or precise reproductions of past ingestive behavior is indisputably false. Second, M-BMs require participants to submit to protocols that mimic procedures known to induce false recall. Third, the subjective (ie, not publicly accessible) mental phenomena (ie, memories) from which M-BM data are derived cannot be independently observed, quantified, or falsified; as such, these data are pseudoscientific and inadmissible in scientific research. Fourth, the failure to objectively measure physical activity in analyses renders inferences regarding diet-health relationships equivocal. Given the overwhelming evidence in support of our position, we conclude that M-BM data cannot be used to inform national dietary guidelines and that the continued funding of M-BMs constitutes an unscientific and major misuse of research resources.
And here is the Mayor of New Zealand’s Capital city:
While waves washing over south coast roads had occurred before they were now becoming increasingly common as a direct impact of climate change, she said.
She’s not on her own, just have a squizz at the comments. All of the catch phrases in the warmies’ vocabulary: ‘97% of scientists’, ‘NASA’s scientific consensus’, ‘we’re doomed’, ad nauseum.
Has anyone else noted the none too subtle way that the ABC has started to use their news outlets, digital, Radio, and TV, to advertise their upcoming current affairs programs. The TV news bulletin will do a related article taking excerpts from the program and then as the closing comment add that the full story can be seen on tonight’s 7.30, or Lateline, or Four Corners etc.
News is for just that purpose. To tell the news.
Today’s Online news is no different with an advertorial for tonight’s Four Corners program on, umm, The End Of Coal. (article at this link, and note the Comments section)
Perhaps the ABC might indicate their, umm, 24 hour electrical power consumption details for us, so we have an idea as to where our money might be going, just where they source their 24 hour power, and what steps they are taking to ensure a move to using renewable power only, and take the whole ABC off their own addiction to coal fired power.
Tony, on the matter of where to get our power if it doesn’t come from coal, I have a related comment currently in moderation which should eventually appear as comment #30 at this link.
I’m impressed that someone has had the foresight to downvote my link to my moderated future comment even before that comment has been released from moderation for viewing. If this downvoter has the ability to accurately predict future events and telepathically sense hidden information they should immediately cash in on their ability by rendering services to clients in Wall Street and ASIO.
“According to a new report by Oxford University, commissioned by HSBC’s Climate Change Centre of Excellence, China’s demand for coal is changing. Driven by environmental concerns, political pressure, developments in cleaner technologies and gas markets, the Asian giant could reduce its consumption. This could drag down prices, putting Australia’s coal reserves and infrastructure at risk of becoming ‘stranded assets.'”
I’m just wondering why a number of monster companies around the World are still working on equipment that can only be used for coal fired power plants.
USC coal fired power plants.
Advanced USC coal fired power plants, including in the United States, where coal is supposedly dying.
Metal Companies working on new metals only for use in these new tech coal fired plants
Generators specifically for use in these new plants.
Turbines which are specifically being designed for these plants, and only these plants.
Furnaces, boilers, and the list goes on.
Investment in these technologies is not confined to one Company, but many of them, some the biggest in the Industry.
There is quite literally hundreds of Billions of dollars involved in this, only for coal fired power plants.
You have to wonder how some of the biggest Companies on Earth are still investing Billions in what you class as stranded assets.
Craig, you need to not believe what your string pulling puppet masters are telling you.
None of these Companies can afford losses like that if there is no future as you say.
Craig, you follow your heart felt wish.
As for us Craig, we just look at where the money is going, and make decisions based on that, and Craig, I’ll bet we’re closer to the mark than you are with your green dream.
Whilst you are correct in saying that there has been a reduction in imports to China from approx. a billion tonnes to around 600 million tonnes the demand from India remains high at around 240 million tonnes and is predicted to increase.
With Indonesia requiring some coal based infrastructure we can easily anticipate the burning of in excess of a billion tonnes of coal per annum ,injecting a delicious 7 billion tonnes (?)of CO2 into the atmosphere.
AAAAAHHH , gotta love the smell of CO2 in the morning.
Again Craig, you show just how clueless you really are when you say those coal fired power plants in NSW are closing.
Nothing whatsoever, (and let me stress NOTHING) to do with stranded assets.
Both Munmorah and Wallerawang were 50 years old and older. Please, oh please point me at a wind plant which has lasted, or will last for 50 years.
Both those NSW plants were used as rolling reserve only, and as new gas fired plants took over the job they were solely used for, they no longer needed to run.
Oh Craig, keep coming here and commenting. You just can’t help doing it.
Tony
It was on Catallaxy files this morning.
That was all there was to it.
China has a lot of its own coal.
Besides which there is no shortage of countries willing to sell it coal.
Yes that is a lot of coal. Certainly enough to bury a few hundred windmills.
Also they appear to have given-up on trying to hide the fact that nearly half the wind farms in China are not grid connected.
Yes some are connected to local networks but this would appear to be for the fig-leaf of cover it gives them when explaining so little progress. I’m sure the greenies of the world look on in credulous joy at all the spinners there.
Renewables are, of course, growing at well over 2x this rate.
I also note a lot of people seem to place enormous faith in China’s communist system’s ability to follow a rational economic policy: do they really believe all these new coal plants are going to be used to actually generate electricity on top of the electricity being generated by the existing coal plants?
Craig, I know what you’re doing here. You’re taking the pi$$, aren’t you.
Surely even you realise the electrical power availability in China.
In the US, they consume 4100TWH of power a year for a population of 320 Million.
In Australia, we consume 200TWH of power a year for a population of 23 Million
In China, they consume 5200TWH of power a year for a population of 1.4 Billion
That gives a breakdown of:
US – 12812KWH per person
Australia – 8605KWH per person
China – 3714KWH per person.
Now, while this just breaks it down to a per capita basis, something which is erroneous because Industrialistion is different, it’s patently obvious that the the US has a far greater consumption per head than China, in fact, almost four times as much.
So then, a breakdown by sector
US – Residential 38%, Commerce 37%, and Industry 24%.
Australia – Residential 28%, Commerce and Industry 72%
China – Residential 15%, Commerce and Industry 85%
That per capita figure is due not because China is more frugal with their consumption. It’s because up to 300 Million people in China have NO access whatsoever to electrical power, and probably as much again with very limited access to electrical power.
As China industrialises then the power coming on line will be made available to more of those people without it than there is now.
That will take probably decades and each of those new power plants will be providing power for every use, and people will gain access to something even you take so utterly for granted.
So, even we know that you’re just fishing for bites here.
you beat me to it. whereas CAGW science is gobblegook to most of the public, they would more easily grasp the economics, if they were properly informed, & not by those with invested interests.
that is why it is unconscionable that the MSM does not have someone like you doing a weekly column, or responding to, outlandish claims re fossil fuels vs solar/wind & so on.
if ABC is not willing to quote the facts about coal, nor have anyone who understands such matters explain the facts, surely that is a violation of rules re financial advice.
a second ABC piece to go with yours, plus the promos, plus the broadcast tonite and the repeats, etc:
15 June: ABC 4 Corners: The End of Coal?
By Geoff Thompson and Deborah RichardsWith the price of coal plummeting and our biggest customers turning to renewable energy, is Australia backing a loser?
When Prime Minister Tony Abbott famously declared coal to be “good for humanity” and “essential to the prosperity of Australia”
there was no doubting he saw a coal-fuelled future for the nation…
Four Corners explores the driving forces that neither the Federal Government nor the mining industry can control.
Among the challenges, rapid technological change revolutionising the way we generate and store power.
“It is totally a game changer.” Christina Figuerres, UN Climate Change Chief
And investors are getting nervous.
“With fossil fuels we want to get out as quickly as possible for financial reasons, as fast as is prudent, but also because we feel like the value of these stocks is really declining.” US Investor
“Financial markets though operate like a herd. Once one of the bulls runs, a stampede is caused.” Energy Analyst
And with countries like China, America and the rest of the G7 committing to curbs on fossil fuels, will Australia be left on the wrong side of history? http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2015/06/15/4253096.htm
how does SBS get away with publishing the following?
14 June: SBS: Comment: The end is in sight for the coal industry
(Simon Copland is a freelance writer and climate campaigner. He is a regular columnist for the Sydney Star Observer and blogs
at The Moonbat.)
A move by Norway to rid itself of coal investments in its sovereign wealth fund has big implications, writes Simon Copland.
While it didn’t necessarily make huge global headlines, this is potentially one of the biggest climate policy announcements in years…
Over the past few years fossil fuels, and in particular coal, has been suffering significantly…
But it’s not just China. After his election new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi started cutting coal subsidies and increasing taxes, whilst in the United States President Barack Obama has circumvented the recalcitrant Congress to introduce his own limits on coal pollution…
Communities around the world are stepping up, and the fossil fuel industry is suffering because of it. The question now is one of not if, but when, the industry will finally die. http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/06/14/comment-end-sight-coal-industry
620 coal fired power stations in China. Still opening a new one every month
With no real end in sight either. China mentions that it could be as early as 2030.
Even so, keep in mind that any large scale plant which opens has a 50 year life span, so even if (pretty big if, too) 2030 does see the last one come on line, then they will be in operation until 2080.
Then you have India ramping up their new coal fired plants, then other Countries in SE Asia, and then Africa just MUST begin their move to this, as their Leaders see the benefits of giving their people access to reliable electrical power, with reliable being the accentuated point here.
You only need to look at it from an economic point of view, and you’ll see that there are hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars involved in the following.
Generator manufacturers are actively involved in the development of generators capable of 1800 to 2000MW single units.
Turbine manufacturers are actively involved in larger steam turbines specifically to drive these bigger generators and do it more efficiently.
Companies are actively involved in finding new metals compositions to withstand the higher operating temperatures associated with only one form of power generation, coal fired power.
Companies are actively working on Advanced USC, the next step up from USC, and some of these are even within the U.S. where (supposedly) coal is on its last legs. USC already offers reduction in coal burning of up to 12 to 15% and Advanced USC could even see further reductions of 9% on top of that.
These are not just theory, or dare I say it, modeling, but in actual work right now.
If coal was supposedly dying out, these companies would be ceasing work immediately, instead of flushing their billions down the toilet.
Uninformed people look at tired old 50 year old plants on their last legs and just say ….. well, let them die. Elsewhere, people are replacing those old plants with new plants, burning considerably less coal, and supplying monumentally huge amounts of electricity, electricity which will be available on tap, whenever it is needed, a regular, reliable constant delivery of power required to keep a modern World actually functioning.
Trust me, coal fired power has a very, very long future.
Nice to have all that power. What bothers me for the future is population. ~2,000,000,000 in 1940, predicted to be ~8,000,000,000 in 2020. Taking 1900 at ~1,000,000,000 gives a doubling every 40 years thus expect a global population of ~16,000,000,000 by 2060. Lot of life left in the coal fired power stations by then but will there be enough land to grow food for the people? The land area is NOT increasing. Predictions for shortened growing periods seem to be holding. (world IS cooling!)
I won’t have to worry about it but the youngsters are not being prepared. Sad really.
“China’s consumption of electricity from coal-fired power stations fell 10 per cent over the first three months of the year”
“China’s coal imports fell 42 per cent over the first quarter of the year, ”
It is nice that you have so much faith in China’s communist system to deliver rational economic outcomes, though….
If you had bothered to read the rest of the article to which you refer, you may have realised that the decrease in energy consumption was a result of a decrease in iron and steel production, and also a decrease of cement production. Both of these changes were planned, over a decade ago, as was the corresponding decrease in coal importation.
Also, China are currently bringing more hydro on stream, also as planned.
The trouble with western journalists, is that they think news is about today’s events, while missing the fact that today’s events are the outcome of decisions made years ago, so are hardly news to the real China-Watchers.
A move by Norway to rid itself of coal investments in its sovereign wealth fund has big implications …
Hypocrisy on stilts.
Norway’s entire economy, high standard of living and by extension their sovereign wealth fund, rests on the export of fossil fuels; 67% of export income comes from crude oil, refined oil and petroleum gas.
And why aren’t they subject to the same activist pressure as coal exporters?
The Sovereign Wealth Fund is divesting its investment in coal.
It is selling its shares, presumably to the highest bidder or bidders. It is a political decision, that is being spun for all it is worth by Simon Copeland, the well known Sydney propagandist.
15 June: Bolt Blog: When will Four Corners give up this green porn?
(Bolt excerpts Australian Financial Review article)
Kerry O’Brien will commute from Byron Bay to Sydney in Business class on Monday to read from an autocue for approximately 40 seconds before retiring to Royal Sydney Golf Club and then flying home the following day. This weekly service costs the taxpayer around $200,000 each year.
This week he will introduce a segment called The End of Coal, whose promos ask “will Australia be left on the wrong side of history?”…
(C)orrespondent Marian Wilkinson has already brought two segments to air suggesting the coal industry is threatening the Great Barrier Reef: one in September last year called Battle for the Reef … and one in November 2011 called Great Barrier Grief.
In July 2014, Power to the People bemoaned Australia’s failure to embrace renewable energy despite a “revolution in power generation taking place across the globe”.
In May 2012, Casualties of the Boom documented how “massive mining developments are killing communities in regional Australia”.
In February 2011, The Gash Rush investigated “the cost to farmers and the environment” of the coal seam gas industry. April 2013’s Gas Leak! was no different.
But our personal favourite is April 2010’s A Dirty Business about “how the people of a once picturesque valley found themselves surrounded by coalmines, dust and toxic chemicals, while the state government ignores their pleas for help”.
Anyone seeing a pattern here?…etc http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/when_will_four_corners_give_up_this_green_porn/
India’s growing demand drives NSW’s coal export
The Australian – 11 hours ago
High overseas demand will boost Queensland coal exports
Courier Mail-12 hours ago
“Coal exports to end-May sit at about 200 million tonnes and are set to reach a new record of around 220Mt for 2014-15 financial year,”
Future Bright for Queensland Coal As Export Records Tumble
My Sunshine Coast (press release)-1 hour ago
23 new power plants to go online by 2020
ABS CBN News-1 hour ago
MANILA – The Philippines will have 23 new coal-fired power plants by 2020
Investment lights fire under wet coal exports
Lawyers Weekly-2 hours ago
PT Bukit Asam is one of Indonesia’s biggest and most profitable coal companies.
and on and on.
the MSM needs to be presented with clear graphics:
showing all the coal-fired power plants being built, planned, etc.
showing the real contribution of solar & wind as opposed even to hydro.
showing the number of nuclear reactors being built/planned in China etc.
and ABC/SBS must be made to include these facts and figures when making outlandish claims by or on behalf of those with vested interests in wind and solar.
and ABC/SBS must be made to include these facts and figures when making outlandish claims by or on behalf of those with vested interests in wind and solar
Not a hope
There is a ramp-up of anti-coal propaganda occurring. This is prompted by potential development of the North Central Q’ld Galilee Basin coal deposits becoming clearer
About 10 years ago we geologists ran a “book” on when the Galilee Basin would see Greenpeace International rappelling down out of ABC-funded choppers to save the planet. So far our timetable for this piece of entertainment is on track
Paved surfaces are quite possibly the most ubiquitous structures created by humans. In the United States alone, pavements and other impervious surfaces cover more than 43,000 square miles—an area nearly the size of Ohio—according to research published in the 15 June 2004 issue of Eos, the newsletter of the American Geophysical Union. Bruce Ferguson, director of the University of Georgia School of Environmental Design and author of the 2005 book Porous Pavements, says that a quarter of a million U.S. acres are either paved or repaved every year. Impervious surfaces can be concrete or asphalt, they can be roofs or parking lots, but they all have at least one thing in common—water runs off of them, not through them. And with that runoff comes a host of problems….
=======
With other development I am certain the number is by far higher. Add to that improperly sited met stations and voila… lots of bad data.
I read your blog. It had this bit in the MSDS for DDT
Acute toxicity
LD50 Oral – rat – 87.0 mg/kg
LD50 Dermal – rabbit – 300.0 mg/kg
Remarks: Behavioral:Tremor. Behavioral:Muscle weakness. Behavioral:Ataxia.
Irritation and corrosion
no data available
no data available
Sigma – C8894 http://www.sigma-aldrich.com Page 4 of 5
Sensitisation
no data available
Chronic exposure
Limited evidence of carcinogenicity in animal studies
IARC: 2B – Group 2B: Possibly carcinogenic to humans (1,1,1-Trichloro-2,2-bis(4-
chlorophenyl)ethane)
no data available
no data available
Signs and Symptoms of Exposure
CNS stimulation.
Potential Health Effects
Inhalation Toxic if inhaled. May cause respiratory tract irritation.
Skin Toxic if absorbed through skin. May cause skin irritation.
Eyes May cause eye irritation.
Ingestion Toxic if swallowed.
Target Organs Liver, Pancreas
What did the critters die from? Suicide because they couldn’t take the irritation anymore?
If anything, the sudden cold snap (due to global warming?) caused the dolphins to become easy prey. Check out my search though. . Every useful idiot has jumped on the band wagon.
remember when ABC insisted on having a bunch of CAGW fanatics “debate” (LOL) “The Great Global Warming Swindle” when they aired it in 2007. surely there should be such a debate after the 4 Corners program tonite!
perhaps here at Jo’s website we could make suggestions for an email to be sent to ABC’s Mark Scott, 4 Corners’ editors, journalists, etc., detailing the facts and figures on coal – and projected carbon dioxide emissions for giants like China & India going forward – & demanding this is explained before or after the 4 Corners program!
a couple of examples of information that could be included:
December 2014: Inernational Energy Agency: Global coal demand to reach 9 billion tonnes per year by 2019
Global demand for coal over the next five years will continue marching higher, breaking the 9-billion-tonne level by 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report released today. The report notes that despite China’s efforts to moderate its coal consumption, it will still account for three-fifths of demand growth during the outlook period. Moreover, China will be joined by India, ASEAN countries and other countries in Asia as the main engines of growth in coal consumption, offsetting declines in Europe and the United States… http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2014/december/global-coal-demand-to-reach-9-billion-tonnes-per-year-by-2019.html
the projected carbon dioxide emissions for India:
PDF: 30 pages: Centre for Policy Research India: Informing India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Policy Lessons from Modelling Studies
(page 17) However, the picture looks very different with per capita emissions (Figure 5). Even after doubling or tripling per capita emission levels, India’s 2030 emissions are in the range about 3.25 tonnes/capita, +/- 0.45 tonnes, which on a global scale is relatively narrow. Notably, this 2030 range is well below the current 2011 world average of 4.6 tonnes/capita… http://www.cprindia.org/sites/default/files/events/Informing%20India%27s%20Energy%20and%20Climate%20Debate_CPR-IIASA.pdf
if the Australian public were informed on these issues, they would realise the absurdity of the attacks on the Govt over its CAGW policies.
A marvelous idea indeed.
Remember that Janet Albrechtsen is on the board now (or is it July 1 her appointment is valid)
Janet is sympathetic to our cause. ( or unsympathetic to their cause) [email protected]
14 June: Courier Mail: John McCarthy: High overseas demand will boost Queensland coal exports
Queensland Resources Council chief executive Michael Roche said despite the price downturn there was still significant demand for the state’s commodities, and in particular, coal.
“Coal exports to end-May sit at about 200 million tonnes and are set to reach a new record of around 220Mt for 2014-15 financial year,” Mr Roche said.
“This new record level of coal exports will be 5 per cent higher than last year’s 209 Mt, driven by continued strong demand from China, Japan, India and Korea for the Bowen Basin’s high quality coking coals, used in production of raw steel.
“In the medium term we expect those Queensland export numbers to increase with the growth in demand for Queensland thermal coal from energy hungry nations such as India.”… http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/high-overseas-demand-will-boost-queensland-coal-exports/story-fnihsps3-1227397652341
September 2014: Forbes: Jude Clemente: India Will Be Using and Importing More Coal
India’s Coal Imports Have Nearly Tripled Since 2008…
The Need for More Coal to Make Steel
Met (metallurgical) coal is used to produce coke which is critical in steelmaking. Indian steelmakers used ~40 million tonnes of met coal last year, and imports could more than triple to 110 million tonnes by 2025, while steel capacity also triples to 300 million tonnes…
Coal Imports Will Continue to Boom
The IEA projects that India will be the world’s largest coal importer by 2020… http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2014/11/09/india-will-be-using-and-importing-more-coal/
yes, it would be good to send accumulated links to all members of the ABC Board. really, a taxpayer-funded entity should not be able to make up facts & figures on the economics of energy.
revision of what the MSM has been spouting of late, such as “Chinese coal consumption fell in 2014 and may have passed its all-time peak”:
10 June: Carbon Counter: BP: China’s coal consumption did not fall last year
I wrote earlier in the week that we should be skeptical about China’s coal statistics. As Glen Peters has said, they are like a bottle of wine and improve with age.
So when we saw the claim that coal consumption, and CO2 emissions, fell last year the wise thing to do would be to wait for more data.
And here is the latest. BP has just released its Statistical Review of World Energy. Instead of falling by 3.5% as some have claimed, BP estimates that it actually increased by 0.1%.
Similarly, BP estimates that China’s energy related CO2 emissions did not fall, but increased by 0.9%.
BP also estimates that global energy related CO2 emissions increased by 0.5%, which contradicts the claim by the International Energy Agency that they fell… https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/10/bp-chinas-coal-consumption-did-not-fall-last-year/
February 2015: This Day Nigeria: Coal Power to the Rescue
Today, coal-fired power plants provide about 41 per cent of global electricity. With Nigeria’s electricity challenges, the government is turning to coal as an alternative energy source.
Five out of the 10 world’s leading coal producers had in 2014 generated most of the electricity used in powering their economies from their coal power plants…
The five countries – South Africa, Australia, Poland, China and Kazakhstan had within this period respectively generated 93, 78, 87, 79 and 75 per cent of the electricity used to ensure that their economies were up and running through coal…
Apart from these five, other countries with established electricity industries such as the United States (38 per cent), Israel (61), Indonesia (48), Germany (44) and United Kingdom (39), have all placed regular emphasis on the use of coal to generate electricity and ensure to great extents energy security for their economies…
Characterised by frequent facilities failure (gas pipeline breaks, transmission breakdown, distribution challenges), electricity supply in Nigeria has remained abysmally low when compared with the country’s estimated demand and potential energy sources.
Therefore, it is no longer news that from her conventional hydro and thermal power plants, Nigeria generates just about 4,500 megawatts (MW) of electricity, a lot far short of what she requires to support her economic aspirations.
But to keep her current population (which about 50 per cent do not have access to grid electricity) and economy alive, the federal government has estimated that the country would need at least 20,000MW of stable electricity by the year 2020 and 40,000MW by 2030…
***The government recently said that Nigeria has about 2.8 billion metric tonnes of coal deposits left untapped and which if tapped, can generate electricity for the country for about 30 years…
For Nigeria, viable and bankable coal power generation can now be said to be possible with the right conditions as provided for in the country’s power reform exercise, it is therefore a no-brainer for the government to balance its priority in energy security with a deliberate policy on coal to power, like its recent decision to award coal mining licenses to only investors that are willing and capable of generating electricity with their coal mining blocks. http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/coal-power-to-the-rescue/200817/
June 2015: Ghana Web: Coal energy policy heads to Parliament
The country has thus moved a step closer to joining almost half of the world’s economies that use coal-fired plant to generate cheap electricity for its population — amidst claims that coal is the dirtiest form of energy, producing high amount of carbon emissions.
Power Minister Dr.Kwabena Donkor told Parliament last week: “It is believed that you can generate electricity at about 8cents per kilowatt hour using coal as against the 13 and 14 cents that we are paying using other sources of thermal generation. If this country is to establish a reliable power base, then we have to look at other sources.
“We will be bringing some of this policy documents to the House, and once it is approved — irrespective of who is the Commander in Chief at any one time — we will be able to prevent the recurrence of load-shedding.”… http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/artikel.php?ID=361773
June 2015: Indian Express: IB report to PMO: Greenpeace is a threat to national economic security
Written by Amitav Ranjan , Priyadarshi Siddhanta
An Intelligence Bureau report on foreign-funded NGOs “negatively impacting economic development” in India has called Greenpeace “a threat to national economic security”, citing activities ranging from protests against nuclear and coal plants and funding of “sympathetic” research, to allegedly helping out an Aam Aadmi Party candidate in the recent Lok Sabha elections.
The allegations are part of the IB’s report, dated June 3, submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office. As reported first by The Indian Express, the IB claims the negative impact of the NGOs’ role on GDP growth to be “2-3 per cent per annum”. The report, signed by IB Joint Director S A Rizvi, accuses Greenpeace of contravening laws to “change the dynamics of India’s energy mix”… http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/ib-report-to-pmo-greenpeace-is-a-threat-to-national-economic-security/
Just sitting here watching it actually, for a change, rain and I fell to musing on the silliness of windfarm advocates in the face of shutdowns of coal fired generation. I had a little fantasy on the possibility of putting a skilled hacker together with these lovely remote controlled smart meter systems and arranging things so that the watermelons power was cut off when the country’s wind farm output fell below some porportion of nameplate capacity. Let’s be generous and say anything below 20% equals lights out, that should give them power for a little more than half the time. Apart from the warm fuzzy feeling this would engender it may serve to demonstrate the unsuitability of this power source for a modern society before the grid deteriorates to the point where power has to be cut off from important things like factories, hospitals, the poor and so on.
Just an idle fantasy, not to be read as encouragement to anyone.
I also muse on such things LC. My opinion is that those who believe we should subsist solely on ‘renewable’ power should be made to do exactly that from now on…leading by example. Some hope! 🙁
i’m no good at these things, but would love if Rod Stuart or someone who has located email addresses for the ABC Board would gather the links together and do a preamble, such as:
please forward to: Geoff Thompson, Deborah Richards & Kerry O’Brien
re Four Corners 15 June: The End of Coal?
15 June: ABC 4 Corners: The End of Coal?
By Geoff Thompson and Deborah Richards
With the price of coal plummeting and our biggest customers turning to renewable energy, is Australia backing a loser?
And with countries like China, America and the rest of the G7 committing to
curbs on fossil fuels, will Australia be left on the wrong side of history? http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2015/06/15/4253096.htm
if your program does not include any of the following information, would ABC please advise the public before or after the program of these facts and figures.
after all, when ABC broadcast “The Great Global Warming Swindle” in 2007, it considered it necessary to follow it with a “debate” featuring a panel made up almost entirely of manmade global warming advocates.
Tony – whatever you do don’t go back to engage the mess of fantasy and illogic evident in the comments. You will be out of commission for a whole season.
Gems: ” you don’t need baseload generators to provide baseload”
and “after the SA station fire wind generators took up the slack”
One commentator said “nobody is suggesting renewables replace fossil fuels”. What was it the G7 announced last week?
Stupid is as stupid does (and says).
Well done Tony. The other comments weren’t very good for my blood pressure! They’ve really swallowed the hype…those who believe it’s ‘their’ ABC speaking for them.
You mean, comments such as the one where somebody points out that the Port Augusta cola-fired plant is being shut down because its generation capacity has been replaced by cheaper renewables?
If the real world causes you so much stress, I recommend you give up those of your ideas that conflict with it.
Until you can explain where you are going to get 22,000MW of continuous 24 hour power from, then the meme your side keeps putting out there that Base Load is a myth is just that, a baseless meme, perpetuated by people who have no understanding about power consumption.
Look at any day you like back as far as you wish to go and note it has never fallen below that level in Australia.
Currently electricity is mostly demand governed. To the lefties this is just wrong. People are out there making their own decisions on consumption based only on the market price, and what they can they can afford. And as all lefties know allowing the market to regulate itself through supply and demand balancing is wrong; even with current government interference in the market. It so unequal, so unfair they cry!
Most of this modern world, and how it’s currently maintained, is because of the relatively low cost of electricity, with the efficiencies that the market can stand; that we all can afford. To the left that low cost is wrong. The efficiencies of the market through the exploitation of nature’s bounty of coal-fired generation for the leftie-elite is wrong. Take that low cost away and modern life suffers and suffers badly — everywhere.
The bottom line is that elites want electricity production to be more expensive and limited. By simply pulling the pug on coal they know that their goal is easily achieved, that move alone gives them near total control over most people’s lives.
The left-wing elites dislike the idea of Joe and Joanne Public deciding when to use as much, or as little, electricity as they desire and can afford. Freely consuming just how much and when they want to — all at the flick of a switch.
How dare they, eh?
So enter the ‘smart’ leftie ideas — after killing coal the main push is for ‘smart’ meters and ‘smart’ household appliances. That way the producers (through dumb big government levies, laws and rules) decide who and where the limited power will go. Who and by what authority will they control ‘smart’ meters and household appliances? Remember you do not own that meter, even when you pay for the installation.
Don’t think this is not the future? — THIS CONTROL IS A PRIMARY AIM OF THE ELITES!
Guess who pays for all this ‘smart’ regulation on limiting your lives for no good reason?
“Baseload” is not a term that describes any functional requirement of a power-generation system. It is a term that is *descriptive* of the inefficient inability of legacy coal-fired power to vary output to match demand.
Tasmania’s Liberal Government is urging the state’s Labor senators to support revised renewable energy target (RET) legislation.
The new legislation comes before the Senate this week, but Labor has indicated it will not back the inclusion of native wood, classed as timber fibre, being burnt as a renewable energy source.
The Greens-affiliated group Markets For Change have sent out their alerts:
Any day now a vote on legislation to allow burning our magnificent native forests for electricity as ‘renewable’ energy will be held in the Senate.
…
• Unacceptable adverse impacts on biodiversity from the industrial logging of native forests will result
• Forest biomass combustion emits more greenhouse gases than fossil fuels per unit of energy produced, with green wood from native forests as feedstock
• Solar and wind power would be displaced by up to 15% with the inclusion of native forest biomass into the RET
[…]
A study quoted by Markets For Change about the net effect of switching from coal to forestry is here… http://www.eeb.org/?LinkServID=8481F382-A488-5532-533788C21A65D484&showMeta=0&aa
…with Figure 1 being quite illustrative. Due to the slow regrowth time, the forest being harvested as often as possible instead of the point where it equals the original biomass, and the higher CO2 emissions per unit power generated, switching to forestry biomass for power generation results in higher cumulative emissions relative to the coal scenario during the first 260 years. The greenhouse theory states that temperature is logarithmic with CO2 partial pressure, therefore the earlier the CO2 level is stabilised the less warming occurs. So even if you believe CO2 makes some significant difference to climate and should be reduced, the changes being plotted in our parliament this week would be contrary to that purpose for the next two centuries. There’s a chance that in 260 years we could be at the onset of the next glaciation (currently overdue) and nobody will be worried about preventing warming at that point.
It is ridiculous of MfC and the Greens to say that biofuels shouldn’t count as “renewable energy” when trees are the most renewable resource we have. The problem is not its unsustainable by itself, the immediate problem is that there’s other aesthetically valuable stuff which won’t be sustained because of repurposing of the land.
The sheer amount of land area which would be required to service anywhere near the amount of demanded power via biofuel would place native wildlife areas into competition with logging, with subsequent loss of various cute and cuddly things. Remember the native forests already grow everywhere that the soil and climate conditions are satisfied for tree growth. The only ways to use biofuel without a wildlife massacre is to use irrigation on an unforested patch of land where the soil is fine and the only missing component is rainfall, or use GMO-algae in tanks to make biodiesel. There are various studies which address the land area required which I won’t go into now, but you can imagine it’s pretty bloody huge. I believe the Drax power station in the UK being fuelled by woodchips from the USA is a current example – and an example which nearly everyone on Jo’s blog disliked when it came up for discussion.
We cannot transition from an unsustainable energy supply to a sustainable energy supply through isolated piecemeal changes like this biofuel subsidy proposal. The only way the energy supply is sustainable is if the energy demand is sustainable, and that can only occur with a zero growth rate in demand. That completely upsets the entire infinite growth mantra that national economies have been expecting, it is a fundamental change which requires systemic rework globally. Allowing wood burning in the RET scheme doesn’t address the fundamentals of sustainable energy supply.
It’s a test of Tony Abbot’s support base. Do the Liberal-lovers love the LNP and Tony Abbott so much and hate the Greens so much that they will sit idly by the fireplace just to spite the Greens while the LNP issues death warrants for our wildlife. Remember it’s not just Tasmanian forests that are threatened, it’s national legislation. You can’t create a national subsidy for burning wood fibre in power stations and expect natural market forces to ignore it. Yes, that’s the LNP interfering in the wood market by proposing a new subsidy, remind me how they are “right wing” again.
Mind you, there is at least one voice of reason amidst the LNP insanity:
Renewable Energy Target: Liberal backbencher Keith Pitt threatens to cross floor over Government deal […] But Mr Pitt said the nation should be debating “next generation nuclear technology” if it is serious about reducing carbon emissions.
“If, and I say if, Australia meets its 2020 Renewable Energy Target, it won’t be because we’ve created an economically self-sustaining reliable source of renewable energy,” he said.
“People will be using less coal-fired electricity for one reason only — they simply can’t afford it.”
It’s wood WASTE in the bill before the senate.
It’s branches, bark, wane from the milling operation, etc. that is burned anyhow.
Typical of the ABC and the Green Blob to obfuscate the issue.
No doubt you’re watching ABCs Four Corners. How does it feel to watch Capitalism take your denial? Are you going to deny business their opportunity to flourish? How’s the notch? Nearly one year later and no article in a scientific journal. Are you a leaner not a lifter?
Cheers
Real capitalism would mean no RET, no subsidies and not one single wind farm. Capitalism is other countries deciding to use their own coal instead of importing. That’ll reduce CO2!
Capitalism run rampant is using useful idiots to create a bargain.
Oops!. OK There are two unthreaded’s in a row because of a computer glitch last week. I put off the double one then til this week, and totally forgot I had prescheduled that errant extra unthreaded. Silly silly me.
My brain is distracted. Got a very minor kiddie-school winter cold, and separately a garden superbug in my finger. No more speed gardening without glovews for me eh?
Tonight, drumroll, I caught that swollen finger in the door. TYhe pain. the pain.#%$^%$# can not use left hand. what a silly sausage!
my heart goes out to people living with chronic pain. how incapacitating. mine — eyewatering hurt — is temporary. blessedly. I assume Ill be right in a day or two. thank goodness for antibiotics and tetnus vacc. – Jo
Jo I’m sure there’s a law for it but you will often knock/bump an existing injury, if it’s any consultation I get “bitten” by many letterbox openings with the metal flap, recently one grabbed my index finger on a downhill delivery stopping me and the bike with my finger the only thing preventing a forward motion, it hurt and I said “oh drat!” the upside was my shoulder popped back into place, not sure you’d call it a silver lining scenario though. 🙁
I have been informed by email that our dear host Jo has been recovering from a hat-trick of illnesses and injuries today. Her typing hand has been injured in two different ways. This came on the back of a fever. Those who’ve been missing Jo’s presence in this forum over the last two days, now you know why. And it would seem moderation will be temporarily slower and more sporadic than the normally high standard we have come to enjoy.
I’m sure most folks here will wish Jo a speedy recovery, as do I.
Indeed, with enough well wishes from her highly international audience I’m sure she can experience a global warming of the nicest variety. (nyuk nyuk)
A couple of hours ago I commenced year 74, but so far it is not going well. Nor is the predictive spelling on this dumb tablet. My side of the electric blanket broke at 2 am yesterday, despite Colleen’s side being vacant again in favour of hospital. She is now below half my mass, so on semi-sleep lonely nights I compose algorithms to project when the next blanket will fail. We are on blanket number 5 replacement this year, always my side, so the input data is diverse for the forecast of future temperatures. Then I wake myself shouting that the algorithms are wrong, but there is nobody to hear my confession that I fail at p redicting temperature.
It is a version of ‘If a Man saw a tree fall in a forest and heard its noise, would his Woman still argue that he was wrong?
The bed is one I restored after purchase from a Steptoe shop in Mount Morgan. The white paint had been overpainted with black, so this would affect internal temperatures in the way Anhony reported on WUWT for fading Stevenson screens. The brass had been chrome plated, making it light reflective, but bing a chemist, I soon stripped it off. Indeed, in those days frequent stripping often elevated tempertures again and again. Under one of the 83 brass pieces I found the date 1896 stamped in the steel frame, but of course I reject ant dates before 1910 when the temperatures suddenly became correct for BoM purposes.
My main career employer mined gold and copper at Mt Morgan for some years in the 1970_90 period. It was pleasant on visits to read the old Annual Reports in the library of the directors’ quarters. One learned that the wealth of the mine allowed one Mr W K D’Arcy to drill impossibly many holes in the Persian desert until he struck the oil that led to BP being formed. Also, one of my managers lived in the former home of Walter and Eliza Hall, whose funding of medical research led to an Instiute of world fame, one bthat has saved many lives.
Yet some many people are taught to hate mining, for reasons that seem illogical when you know a bit about it.
Get sell soon, Jo.
Just sayin’
Geoff
Watts is running this new paper, Baker et al out of UNSW, which confirms once again what we already know. The NAO was in positive mode during the MWP, coupled nicely with the Atlantic conveyor to bring warmth to Europe.
jo – so sorry to hear about your health woes, etc. hope you are on the mend now.
no transcript as yet, and i didn’t see the program (had stuff to do), but compare ABC’s sources for The End of Coal? with the links posted above. (guess no-one managed to send the links to the ABC Board. i may get around to that once i have seen the transcript, though i would love someone with more expertise than me – like TonyfromOz – to do it as he might get a response from ABC):
15 June: ABC Four Corners: The End of Coal?
(CLICK ON “BACKGROUND INFORMATION” AT BOTTOM OF SUMMARY)
MEDIA – INCLUDES MUCH ABC, GUARDIAN & FAIRFAX PLUS THE CONVERSATION PLUS A SMATTERING OF MURDOCH & OTHER MSM SOURCES WHEN IT SUITS, SUCH AS:
Coal miners cut output as prices fall | The Daily Telegraph | 3 June, 2015
Port Augusta power stations and Leigh Creek coal mine expected to close by 2018, costing about 440 jobs | The Australian | 11 June, 2015
16 June: ABC The Drum: John Connor: Voters are backing solar power – will we get the policies to match?
A new Lowy poll shows solar power’s appeal is broad among Australians, and it’s clear there is much to be done to reduce emissions. The challenge now is for our governments to act, writes John Connor.
Last week I stood in a field of more than a million photovoltaic solar modules and felt like I was touching the future. Erected within 18 months at the Nyngan Solar Farm, this utility scale solar power plant can power more than 50,000 homes. Many more of these can and should be built…
Wind power’s appeal is broad too. Last year polling for The Climate Institute showed 64 per cent of Australians had wind in their top three energy sources. Solar was in the top three of 82 per cent (15 per cent had coal). Indeed, more than three quarters of Australians wanted governments to do more for renewable energy “like wind farms”. With their enigmatic mix of a sleek industrial aesthetic and a primal connection to a natural resource that is also free, wind farms are a crossover technology that inspires many. And infuriates some…
The latest Lowy poll also confirmed a trend our own polling has shown of a rebound in support for action on climate change, ***”even if this involves significant costs”. Support is back to levels not seen since 2009.
After the toxic carbon politics of the last few years it is easy to forget that in early 2009 there was bipartisan support for ***emissions trading that made big polluters begin to take responsibility for their emissions…
Yesterday, the International Energy Agency essentially backed the vision of Australians. Avoiding two degrees warming would see a world with more renewable energy than coal fired energy by 2030… http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-16/connor-voters-are-backing-solar-power/6548438
Australians fear 10 more years of terror, finds I-view poll
The Australian-10 hours ago
Solar energy was rated by 43 per cent as Australia’s likely primary power source in 10 years, followed by coal with just 17 per cent
Rumoured death of coal mining greatly premature
The Australian-10 hours ago
Renewable energy a big punt: Nats senator
The Australian (blog)-13 hours ago
Mr Abbott has previously declared coal “good for humanity
Reuters & Daily Mail, plus Russian MSM the only ones reporting this story so far! wonder why?
15 June: Reuters: Big Oil saving Putin top investor show again
by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Katya Golubkova
Some of the world’s most powerful oil executives will attend Russia’s top investment show next week, once again helping the organizers shrug off a meager turnout from other leading Western industrialists and bankers…
However, for the second year running, oil executives are showing up regardless, with the heads of BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total flying into the home town of President Vladimir Putin.
BP’s review of world energy supplies, published this month, estimated that Russian oil and gas reserves had jumped above 100 billion barrels for the first time, climbing to some 103 billion from 93 billion in the last review in 2013. This put it sixth in the global reserves league table.
Such an abundance makes it economically vital for major energy firms to maintain healthy ties with Moscow…
“Uncertainty is the rule of the game in this industry,” the head of France’s Total Patrick Pouyanne said this month. “We are in the long-term business. This is why at Total we are keen to maintain our commitment to Russia.”
Pouyanne and BP’s boss Bob Dudley will be speaking at a panel with Putin’s energy tsar, the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin. Shell’s CEO Ben Van Beurden will share the stage on Thursday with the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller.
All of them will likely have a separate meeting with Putin and will generally be much more visible than last year when they preferred to stay on the sidelines…
Western energy bosses have a lot at stake in Russia, with assets ranging from Shell’s giant gas plant on the far eastern island of Sakhalin to BP’s 20 percent stake in Rosneft, responsible for a third of its global production…
But onshore developments are still allowed and BP is looking to expand its portfolio in Russia by buying a stake in an east Siberian oil field from Rosneft for as much as $800 million.
Shell’s van Beurden said this month the company would be keen to boost capacity of the $20 billion Sakhalin plant by a third while Total is seeking ways to unlock investments into the $30 billion Yamal gas plant…
Executives from giant oil trading houses Glencore, Vitol, Gunvor and Trafigura will also travel to Russia as Rosneft is looking for ways to boost its funding options via oil sales deals.
Last year, Putin challenged the Western sanctions by striking a long awaited gas supply deal just before the forum between Kremlin’s energy champion Gazprom and China, valued at $400 billion. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/15/us-russia-forum-oil-idUSKBN0OU0RW20150615
In the middle of the Dalton Minimum the largest volcanic eruption in 1300 years had a devastating effect on agriculture.
‘According to a 2012 analysis by Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, the 1815 Tambora eruption caused a temporary drop in the Earth’s average land temperature of about 1 °C. Smaller temperature drops were recorded from the 1812-1814 eruptions.’ wiki
Importantly a quiet sun was already causing mayhem before that massive event.
1779-80 coldest winter in Edinburgh on record.
1783 to 1786 two winters saw the Thames frozen solid, along with 1788-89, due primarily to a high pressure established over Greenland and Scandinavia.
Oops!. OK There are two in a row because of a computer glitch last week. I put off the double one then til this week, and totally forgot I had prescheduled that errant extra unthreaded. – Jo
facts and figures mean nothing to CAGW ideologues. Denniss, didn’t you read Vidal/Guardian report that Britain, Germany, Italy, Japan and France burned more coal between 2009 and 2013 and demanded poor countries slash their carbon emissions?
15 June: AFR: Richard Denniss: Abbott blind to coal’s decline
Conservative leaders around the world are working hard to position themselves on the right side of the climate debate. Angela Merkel has taken a strong stance on the need to rapidly reduce Germany’s emissions and just last week the G7 agreed to decarbonise their economies. In the UK the newly elected Cameron government moved instantly to position itself, and the issue of climate change, in the political centre.
London’s Tory Mayor Boris Johnson’s support for bikes, public transport and electric cars places him closer to Clover Moore than Tony Abbott on the climate policy spectrum.
But as the world’s powers prepare for this year’s climate talks in Paris, and as China’s investment in renewable energy continues to grow rapidly, Tony Abbott chose last week to remind us that he thinks wind turbines are an ugly blight on the landscape…
Of course not all Liberal leaders see renewable energy through the prism of Tony Abbott’s culture war…
Our Prime Minster thinks the markets are wrong about the prospects for coal and that the electorate are wrong about their support for renewables. Conservative leaders around the world are racing in the opposite direction… http://www.afr.com/opinion/columns/abbott-blind-to-coals-decline-20150615-gho0cu?
Harrabin, this article is so contradictory, beginning with the headline. after all, the CAGW-infested MSM never stops giving China exaggerated credit for “renewables”:
16 June: BBC: Roger Harrabin: China ‘deserves more credit’ for renewable energy effort
China should be given more credit for its investment in clean electricity, the head of the International Energy Agency says.
Maria van der Hoeven says most people think that China is frantically building coal-fired power stations.
The reality, she says, is that China is spending as much as the US and Europe put together on clean power.
She says its coal-fired power stations are state of the art – and should be copied in other developing countries…
The country is also building 50 new nuclear power stations and creating economies of scale in nuclear too, the IEA says, at a time when the industry is moribund in Europe…
***Last year the nation reported that its emissions had fallen by 1% as coal use slumped…
Ms van der Hoeven said China was still investing heavily in coal-fired power plants, but that the power stations were highly efficient and enabled old inefficient plants to be retired…
But despite its admiration for China’s achievement, the IEA is still critical of what it says is the nation’s lack of transparency on data.
And it says that because of China’s vast size and its growing wealth, the country’s emissions are expected by 2030 to be two and a half times higher than the next bigger emitter, the US. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33143176
***Harrabin, go check the revised China figures in the BP report.
‘Member of Parliament David Davies has warned of the stubborn nature of organisations like Britain’s Royal Society – the oldest grouping of eminent scientists in the world – who have admitted that they will not accept any other thinking on global warming for at least “fifty years”, even if the data shows otherwise.’
Oliver lane / Breitbart
When pressed on the timing they said it will be 50 years from today.
Stuck for a subject Jo?
Why not look back at your postings from 5 years ago and see how much progress there has been. A review of what was new 5 years ago will often now show how things are going. Maybe things have move in the wrong direction as some feared it would.
I often look back at what has been just to see where I am.
Just a thought.
90
Good idea.
I would also love to see a tevision of the sceptics handbook to include all the seperate lines of evidence Jo has discussed over the years.
70
What a great idea!
Picking something at random from 2010:
http://joannenova.com.au/2010/08/is-the-cold-weather-coming/
And I loved BobC’s comment:
And here is what actually happened:
http://cdn.phys.org/newman/csz/news/800/2015/30yearsofabo.png
94
Yes well, timing is important, so many variables.
I’ve been looking at the Dalton as a comparison, but the Tambora eruption really mucked things up.
Always a pleasure to meet an old Deltoidian doing the rounds.
32
No no, here’s what actually happened.
60
And here, also from NoAA
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/14/despite-attempts-to-erase-it-globally-the-pause-still-exists-in-pristine-us-surface-temperature-data/
53
Peter C, you say “from NOAA”, but you’ve accidentally used a link to a dodgy blog instead.
Can you find the correct link at all for us?
64
Come off it, Craig! The ‘dodgy blog’ (Watts Up With That) as you call it leads to some interesting NOAA links.
23
You should read the link that I posted Craig.
The data is a temperature series for the contiguous USA land surface temperatures from 2005 to the present.
The link, as provided by WUWT is here.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/national-temperature-index/time-series?datasets%5B%5D=uscrn¶meter=anom-tavg&time_scale=p12&begyear=2005&endyear=2015&month=12
The data is a comma separated file. You need to plot it out. If you do that and calculate the trend it shows cooling.
However if that is too much trouble then you could just read it on the first link.
20
The information you link to provides zero support for the McLean, Defreitas and Carter prediction of sharp global cooling starting in 2011, for the following two reasons:
– your link doesn’t relate to global temperatures
– your link does not display sharp cooling starting in 2011
30
Yes, Manalive, thank you for confirming for us that McLean, Defreitas and Carter have made their prediction, and been proven conclusively wrong by subsequent real-world observations.
53
Incidentally, be very careful of placing your faith in the UAH data – it has been found that it had some very wrong adjustments that were being made to it.
51
Yes, well, according to you, all of the data seems to have had some very wrong adjustments made, at one time or another, so none of them can now be trusted to act as a baseline. Without a reliable baseline we have nothing to support a warming/cooling argument, other than religious belief.
But there again, the global warming scare was always been about belief, and not so much about fact. That was why the meme name was changed from global warming to climate change, when reality was at variance with belief. “We’ve just gotta keep up with the latest scientific fashions …”
41
Never mind the “global warming scare”, what we are looking at here, with the benefit of 5 years’ hindsight, is the prediction by McLean, Defreitas and Carter of a “global cooling scare” starting in 2011.
A prediction that has clearly not come to pass.
Clearly, the global cooling alarmism of 2010 was incompetent. *Some* of us were sceptical of it at the time – and being sceptical has now been validated as the correct position to take with respect to “global cooling” alarmism.
33
Craig Thomas,
How do you know cooling has not commenced?
You write the data adjustments can’t be trusted.
The CO2 based models have failed so CO2 is not a factor.
12
The McLean, DeFreitas, Carter model has failed.
Low sensitivity is receding as a likely hypothesis as a result, validating the other models, the models that haven’t been proven wrong.
22
I think we can safely say the models have failed, but more to the point lets see your tipping point.
You will remember from previous paleo discussions that cool wet summers in Europe are a fair indication of regional cooling. Coupled with freezing winters every couple of years and its game set and match.
http://notrickszone.com/2015/06/17/very-unusual-mid-june-cold-surprises-germany-surface-temperatures-around-hamburg-fall-to-3c/#sthash.UcK4A2da.dpbs
00
To which I’ll add:
“Coldest June in 92 years. You have every reason to complain about the weather. Trøndelag has not experienced such a cold first half of June since 1923.
“Since the daily measurements of mean (average temperature through the day) began in Trondheim in 1870, it has been measured an even colder first half of June only once, 92 years ago.”
http://www.adressa.no/vaeret/article11210577.ece
00
Sorry about that link, my bad. Its summer in Norway.
Meanwhile in Britain its looking great.
‘Parts of Britain will bask in glorious sunshine and sizzling temperatures of 25C today as the country continues to enjoy a spell of warm weather.
‘Southern parts of the UK will enjoy temperatures rivalling the likes of Barcelona and Rome as warm air from the Azores moves across the country.’
UK Mail
00
At the beginning of June this year there was snow falling in Turkey and the US. The Great Lakes had one of its biggest freezes two years in a row. Lots of snow in Europe and the US. Global sea-ice extent is at a maximum. Australia’s ski season starts early, along with winter in most of the country. Northern Europe has just experienced a cold snap that allowed polar bears to nab a few unlucky dolphins (and that’s evidence of global warming?). The melt season in Greenland is very late. Summer in SE Aus was very mild.
The only places in the thermometer record to be much warmer than average are large areas with a single unreliable station and sea surface temps that are infilled or adjusted.
If we use the unadjusted USCRN for US temperatures as a proxy for unadulterated global temperatures, its been slightly cooling for 10 years.
The dip into the last LIA was slow but this time around when they go back to making cider in England it will still be the hottest year eva!
82
Craig we are on a plateau, gently sloping to the right, the escarpment should be spotted around 2016-17.
Temperatures will become noticeably cooler from then on and, as in the NOAA graph, its back to the late 19th century for us.
I would strongly advise you to take your money out of wind farms and buy wheat futures.
33
That’s funny, the prediction didn’t say anything about waiting until 2016-17, it said “after 2010”.
Remember John McLean’s “clear prediction”: 2011 was to be “the coldest year since 1956”.
He was wrong. The paper was wrong. The “clear prediction” was wrong. McLean, Defreitas and Carter were abominably wrong.
43
‘He was wrong. The paper was wrong. The “clear prediction” was wrong.’
I cannot deny it, but there is a lot of it going about. Remember the models?
Archibald thinks he is still on target after the recent US north east winter.
21
What “models” am I supposed to be remembering, exactly? Richard Lindzen’s incompetent “predictions” of post-dated temperature falls that had never occurred?
Ah, Archibald. The temperature in one town in the USA is a proxy for the entire world, for the purpose of supporting his Solar Cycle nonsense. Great model, that one.
Cheering on David Archibald for being “still on track” is right up there with Eric Moussambani’s fan squad for optimism.
Let’s just recall Archibald predicted a 2.5 degree drop in temperatures in 2014.
Reconsidering, I now say Moussambani had a better chance at gold than Archibald does of being anything like remotely correct with his insane solar cycle gibberish.
43
The temperature in that one location is all that’s needed to prove his point.
David Archibald is gratified.
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/clip_image0041.jpg
11
Archibald also observed that the North Atlantic has been cooling for a decade.
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/clip_image0061.jpg
You are aware the NAO is in lock step with the sun?
11
Steven Capozzola has found a correlation.
‘What’s rather striking is that the flat-lining of stratospheric temperatures since roughly 1998 corresponds quite remarkably with the current pause in surface temperatures.”
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/the-pause-in-the-stratosphere.html
21
1. Have you mistaken the graphic of David Archibald’s model as “observations” of some sort? Where are the observations that validate his prediction for 2.5 degrees of cooling?
2. This is the North Atlantic cooling that has been predicted by climate models since as far back as the 1980s? Well done to David Archibald for getting up to speed on this.
3. You’re saying Steven Capozzola has understood that there is such a thing as variation? Bravo!
20
‘This is the North Atlantic cooling that has been predicted by climate models since as far back as the 1980s?’
That would be Wally Broecker’s Nature article “Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?”
David Archibald can stand up for himself, my prediction is for a noticeable drop in temperatures within a couple of years. The hiatus cannot last forever.
00
El Gordo has some kind of prediction for noticeable drops in temperature in the near future.
I thought I’d check out the history of such statements, and I found one from 2010 that is particularly amusing:
‘My prediction, for what it’s worth, is that global SST will be 0.1 – 0.15C below Jan 2008 levels by spring 2011.’
What really happened:
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/AMSRE_SST_2002_thru_July_7_2011.gif
Ho Ho Ho, what an amusement you are, Gordo.
20
I’m only a straight man in need of a comic, if you could get rid of that chip on your shoulder we would make a great duo.
Apparently large areas of Norway are still snow covered in summer.
‘Satellite measurements show that 23 percent of land area in southern Norway is still covered in snow, nearly five times more than normal in June, says senior forecaster Eirik Malnes.’
00
‘What “models” am I supposed to be remembering, exactly?’
They would be the ones predicting devastating global warming, which failed to eventuate.
Take global cooling seriously.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/06/15/americas-most-advanced-climate-station-data-shows-us-in-a-10-year-cooling-trend/#ixzz3dWMY8aHr
00
Craig Thomas,
Wrong only according to you using data adjustments you admit are wrong.
00
Craig Thomas
Thank-you, you most splendidly show how the message has been adjusted over the 5 years.
30
Craig Thomas: What does the graph you’ve posted really tell us? The left-hand vertical axis is simply labelled ‘anomaly’. From what time period? The corresponding right hand axis covers close to one degree Fahrenheit.
This graph is deceptive.
Let’s have the actual temperatures, not anomalies.
Let’s not have an exagerrated vertical scale to give a misleading impression of temperature increases.
While I’m at it, let’s not have more fiddling with graphs by those who should know better to show a rising temperature trend line from about 1900 to the present date, when the data for the last 17 years or so show quite a different character, the so-called ‘pause’ – actually year to year oscillations. You’ll find the ‘pause’ buried among others at the GISS website, as well as lots of other places. To put a line of best fit through a graph like this is nonsensical.
Any warming over the last century has been trivial – less than a degree. As I never tire of pointing out, pre-1750AD the CO2 levels in the atmosphere were 280ppm. Now they’re 400ppm, a 43% difference. CO2 is still a trace gas, and it’s obvious that it’s made no difference over the centuries. Life goes on, and the climatic Armageddon hasn’t happened. The IPCC has had since 1988 to come up with the evidence that we face serious danger, and hasn’t done so.
32
Carbon500 – the “clear prediction” was for a close to 1 degree drop in temperature.
The graph I showed you demonstrates that this didn’t occur.
42
Craig: The text comments thus: “The chart above shows a projection of temperatures to Feb 2011. The chances are that the present warm spell will end quite suddenly before the end of this year. Over the next few months the SOI will indicate whether or not the cooling will continue beyond Feb 2011. Evidence from studies on past climate and sunspot cycle related effects gives a strong indication that the cooling will continue.”
Cautiously worded.
As the IPCC are always at pains to point out, a projection is a suggestion as to what might happen, it’s not a firm statement of what is actually going to occur.
33
The article I referred to was titled:
“El Nino/La Nina effect (SOI) predicts global cooling by the end of 2010”.
The paper it is based on was roundly debunked for its methods. 5 years’-worth of hindsight reveals its conclusions were also wrong.
20
New UN climate text due in July as Bonn progress taken on trust
http://carbon-pulse.com/new-un-climate-text-due-in-july-as-bonn-progress-taken-on-trust/
The co-chairs of negotiations on a new UN climate pact will prepare a slimmed down text next month to help jolt the process following two weeks of scant tangible progress at talks in Bonn.
The UNFCCC is working towards a global deal to bind all emitters from 2020 around national contributions, a mechanism to ensure those pledges collectively reduce emissions by enough to limit global warming to 2C, and provide hundreds of billions of dollars to help poorer nations tackle climate change.
Parties had been tasked with trimming a 90-page document over the ten-day negotiations, but the meeting ended on Thursday with a working version just five pages shorter.
France’s ambassador for climate change, Laurence Tubiana, who will steer the process towards a final deal at the December Paris conference, insisted the Bonn session had been useful to allow all 195 nations feel they were part of the process.
“It’s about trust, trust, trust. With this, there is no issue we cannot solve,” she told reporters.
A changed work structure of smaller break-out sessions around each issue has markedly improved relations compared to the procedural bickering that marred the talks last year, said Jonathan Grant of consultancy PwC, representing business association IETA.
“The fact that parties allowed the co-chairs to write a new text is evidence that there is more trust in the process,” he said.
TALKS LAG BEHIND
Observers had expected little of substance to emerge from the main track of the meeting as officials lack the authority to relinquish their hard-fought options and wording in the paper.
“Negotiations on substance are still lagging behind the political will we see outside (the UNFCCC),” said the EU’s delegation leader Elina Bardram, referring in particular to this week’s G7 agreement and the recent spate of national pledges.
The EU and the bloc of Least Developed Countries urged the co-chairs to publish the new text earlier than the planned July 24 date.
They said this would allow ministers to discuss it at an informal meeting in Paris on July 20-21, after which they could mandate officials to whittle down text at later official sessions.
There are two week-long UNFCCC sessions ahead of the main December meeting, one from Aug. 31 to Sep. 4, the next from Oct. 19-23.
MARKET TALKS OVER
Technical work on carbon markets made no formal progress, offering no guidance on how the growing global patchwork of national and regional market-based mechanisms will fit into a future international climate framework.
Parties opted to postpone work on the Framework for Various Approaches and New Market-Based Mechanism to the Bonn session in June next year, skipping the December Paris talks entirely.
“It was felt that there were so many other issues to be tackled in Paris that there wouldn’t be time, which was disappointing,” said PwC’s Grant.
He said several options for how the Paris deal will include the use of markets remain in the main negotiating text and will be discussed at the December summit.
A long-gridlocked section of the talks to reform the CDM made no decisions and agreed to resume in December, with parties and observers invited to submit further views by Sep. 21
REDD VOID
A technical body was tasked in Bonn with completing the few outstanding items on a standardised list of recommendations for developing countries to include in their REDD plans when seeking funding to protect tropical forests. It finished its work two days early, bucking the trend of slow progress elsewhere.
Its agreed text brought to an end ten years of negotiations and was hailed as a significant breakthrough by observers, although the guidance was dubbed “minimal” by the REDD+ Safeguards Working Group, a civil society coalition.
It paves the way for REDD+ to be included in any climate change deal that would hopefully be agreed in Paris, said Rachel Mountain of the Global Canopy Programme, a UK-based think tank on safeguarding tropical forests.
“There will be ever more scrutiny on whether REDD finance will be sufficient to address the deforestation challenge,” she said.
The agreement caps a breakthrough deal at the 2013 Warsaw UN climate conference that passed a series of resolutions to pave the way for REDD’s eventual use as a source of offset credits for regulated markets and to encourage richer nations to donate cash to kick-start REDD initiatives.
Public funding has dominated REDD so far, with governments contributing around 90% of $9 billion pledged to date to halt tropical deforestation responsible for around 15% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Countries hoping to access those funds are expected to publish a national REDD strategy, create a monitoring system for projects and provide information such as how local communities are involved and biodiversity preserved.
Many parties and observers recognise that government funding is insufficient but the outlook for the private sector is unclear.
No industrialised nation has yet included provisions for REDD to help meet their INDC mitigation commitment, leaving developers to seek out alternative interim sources of funding for their REDD credits, such as a future round of the World Bank’s Pilot Auction Facility, the Green Climate Fund or demand from the aviation sector’s global offsetting scheme due from 2020.
71
Chinese wind earnings under pressure with fifth of farms idle
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/05/17/china-windpower-idUSL3N0Y24DM20150517
China’s wind farm firms are feeling the heat as state grid operators deliberately delay hooking them up and cut back on purchases, wasting about a fifth of the total wind power output or enough electricity to run Beijing for 40 days.
China is now the world’s top wind power producer thanks to policies designed to boost renewable energy use, with an installed capacity of over 100 gigawatts – more than a quarter of the world’s total and almost enough to light up Spain.
But capacity has raced far ahead of grid construction, with state grid operators reluctant to connect wind farms in remote areas as long as their profit margins on renewables lag that of coal-generated electricity.
Instead, they are resorting to a practice known as curtailment, or slowing the connection of wind turbines to their grids and limiting the use of wind power. This in turn is leading to wasted capacity and lower returns on wind power investments.
“Considering the huge growth in wind installment we saw last year, curtailment is going to be a big problem (for wind power producers) … China is one of the worst countries affected,” said Shanghai-based Shane Sun with international renewable energy consultancy MAKE.
In the first three months, curtailment almost doubled from a year ago to 10.7 billion kilowatt-hours, nearly a fifth of total wind power generated in China, official data showed. That’s equivalent to output generated with about 3.5 million tonnes of coal, or 7 percent of China’s first-quarter coal imports.
BREAKNECK EXPANSION
Meanwhile, generating capacity expansion continues at breakneck speed. While China still relies on coal for most of its power generation, it has more than doubled its installed wind power capacity in the past five years, and Beijing wants to double it again to 200 GW by 2020 with annual investments of $27 billion.
As if that wasn’t incentive enough, state-run power producers are also racing to build capacity to lock in current prices ahead of an official cut next year.
But this expansion coincides with China’s economic slowdown and a sharp decline in the pace of growth in overall power demand, which rose an anaemic 0.8 percent in the first quarter, its slowest rate in more than five years, industry data showed.
INFLATED PRICES
While listed wind firms have seen their shares surge 18-38 percent this year, compared with a 17 percent rise on the broader Hang Seng index, some industry insiders are urging investors to rein in their enthusiasm.
“I’m not entirely sure where the optimism came from,” said an executive at top power producer Datang Power, a sister company of wind farm operator Datang Renewable and a wind farm owner.
“Overall electricity demand is very weak. It is unlikely wind power will outshine others.”
Analysts said wind-related stocks like Datang Renewable have risen partly on expectations of higher wind speeds in China this year after they were down 8-12 percent in 2014.
52
More here:
Former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick Under Investigation for Embezzlement of 27 Million
http://www.dcclothesline.com/2015/06/13/former-massachusetts-governor-deval-patrick-under-investigation-for-embezzlement-of-27-million/
The former governor of Massachusetts is under investigation for diverting money from state funds to use for travel, advertising and other misc. expenses. Rep. David Linsky, House Post Audit Committee announced the investigation on Thursday against his fellow democrat.
Linsky said:
“As is my practice in all investigations, we will always go where the evidence takes us.”
According to the Boston Herald, Patrick diverted 27 million dollars he could use as a slush fund to avoid cutbacks in the budget. Between 2011 and 2014, Patrick and members of his administration spent 1.35 million dollars in overseas travel, including $535,558 in hotel costs, $332,193 in airfare, $305,976 for limousines and ground transportation, and $175,000 in miscellaneous travel expenses.
One of the slush funds was administered by longtime Patrick confidant, Betsy Wall and it sent $17 million to Connelly Partners, an advertising firm that handles advertising for the Massachusetts tourism department. That money will be investigated because either it was laundered or it was spent on advertising for tourism. Either way, Patrick will be in trouble as it’s illegal for him to spend money not allocated by the state legislature. I’m sure the state will make sure the money went to advertising and not part of a kickback scheme.
The bulk of the money was supplied by the Massachusetts Convention Center Authority. A spokesperson for the MCCA said they transferred the money at the request of Gov Patrick. Other money came from Massport and the Mass Tech Collaborative. The money that came from MTC could create even bigger problems for Patrick as they receive federal money annually and were also granted money by Obama’s stimulus package, making it a possible federal crime.
———
More background here:
http://dailybail.com/home/deval-patrick-paul-gaynor-crony-capitalism-at-first-wind.html
http://dailybail.com/home/deval-patrick-paul-gaynor-crony-capitalism-at-first-wind.html
41
Checking Reuters against BP’s energy data:
China is now the world’s top wind power producer False. In 2014 it produced 158.4 TWh, but the US produced 183.6 TWh keeping China in second place.
with an installed capacity of over 100 gigawatts – more than a quarter of the world’s total True: capacity totalled 114.6 GWh at end 2014, some 30.7% of the global total. However, the average power output was just 18.1GW, for a capacity factor of 15.8%
enough to power Spain False. Spain consumed 277.8 TWh of electricity in 2014, and as much as 317.9 TWh in 2008 before recession and the end of their property bubble hit – twice as much as China’s wind production (ignoring the problem of dispatchability).
it has more than doubled its installed wind power capacity in the past five years True: but it’s much more than that. In 2009, capacity was just 25.9 GW
An object lesson in just how far you can trust modern journalists – even from a so-called reputable business provider of news such as Reuters.
71
Small typo: it should of course be 114.6 GW not GWh (the perils of contributing after I should have gone to bed).
That does give me the opportunity to point out that China’s total power generation amounted to 5,649.6 TWh, so the 158.4 TWh from wind was just 2.8% of electricity supply.
21
Alice Springs, central Australia a winter wonderland;
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-14/winter-wonderland-in-the-red-centre-as-hail-transforms-desert/6544518
50
The pre-Paris wind-up continues apace, this time with the Pope about to formally plunge his oar into the eco-mêlée in the form of an encyclical, the infallible statement of guidance made from a position of absolute authority ordained by God. Inevitably, it will try if not split the populous of faithful as has already been suggested by The Telegraph:
Pope appeals to non-Catholics to heed his climate change warning
The Telegraph’s deliberate linguistic polarisation of the debate into the orthodoxy v ‘conservatives’ and ‘sceptics’ that is so toxic, typical and misleading of the MSM, even the diluted liberal ‘right’, who also appear to strenuously avoid pointing out the obvious, The Church would do well to remember its historical separation from State and bear in mind that they are not qualified to comment about UN klimate machinations, well, unless they happen to be Pontificating from on High.
50
Its interesting to see the CAGW machines’ religious “arm” kicking into gear. This seems to be a blatant and desperate attempt to create a “moral” dimension to the argument using the RCC to establish “moral cred”.
The reality is the RCC is by its actions and theology, is actively working against Christianity if you compare what it teaches against the Bible, and the fact it may side with eco-paganism shouldnt surprise anyone. Base don the histiory and the unchanging coe of the RCC, we may see it take a more “back to business” role in denouncing “eco heretics”.
Irelands recent embrace of “gay marriage”, Irealnd being traditionally a RCC stronghold, may spur the RCC to try and be more “relevent” by embracing the new eco-religion.
If you look biblically, yes we are required to be good Stewards of the planet, however Christianity also requires honesty of people. Lying about climate change while pontificating about morals is a lethal “hung on ones own petard” waiting to happen. However, based on the history of the RCC, assuming at its core it has never changed ( its seems not to learned from history ), then if its given a whiff of power trading on the eco-religious “piety”, we could expect the RCC to attempt to end-run around Christianity, just as CAGW has attempted an end-run around Democracy.
Its all going to end in tears…..
72
A small but important part Steve
The recent referendum was in the Republic of Ireland, which is (or was) predominantly Protestant and could now be more properly considered secular.
It is Northern Ireland (and part of the United Kingdom) that is predominantly RCC.
35
Big blooper Rod, you have the whole of the “Irish Troubles” arse upwards.
10
I would be genuinely interested to know in which part of the world they teach that the Irish republic is (or was) predominantly protestant and that Ulster is predominantly catholic.
30
I am very sorry that I got it bass ackwards; arse about face. Please forgive me. I will be eternally indebted to you, the ubiquitous garden gnome.
10
Sorry, Rod, you’ve got it ar$e about face. Having spent some time in Ireland I can tell you it is the other way around. Ian Paisly was a virulent Protestant and very N Ireland. The catholic priest is the most important person in every small community in the South.
21
PeterPetrum – you have watched too many episodes of “Father Ted”. The Most Important Person is the Community Welfare Officer, the parish priest relinquishing this post when Eire joined the Euro.
Since the banking crisis half the population are on weekly benefits. Next Sunday they will all pack the churches to hear his Holiness beseeching them to build more windmills. Still a couple of pints of Guinness restore the equilibrium.
10
I can only chock up my misconception as cognative dissonance I guess.
I was about a month on the Emerald Isle in my youth, visiting rellies. They were all staunch Orange Presbyterians, and once in a while I noticed a rather vulgar reference to ‘de Catlicks’. Back in Oz, I fell in love (temporarily) with a wonderful Irish lass from the North, who is a died in the wool Catholic. I guess that’s the reason I formed that opinion. It’s a lot like people believing that carbon dioxide has some effect on the atmosphere, because it seemed like a good notion at the time.
10
The Catholic priest WAS the most important….
00
Jo
For reference
“Some Videos On The Global Warming Fraud”
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2015/06/14/some-videos-on-the-global-warming-fraud/
20
Philae wakes up.
“Hello earth, can you hear me?”
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33126885
11
Eco system in danger from advancing glacier, now that’s a novel idea.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/hubbard-glacier-defies-climate-change-continues-advancing-1.3106914
20
Politicians who lack long term vision should be restrained. In the past 85 years we have made tremendous technological progress and I expect this should continue no matter what the current flock of politicians say.
http://nofrakkingconsensus.com/2015/06/09/the-future-isnt-ours-to-dictate/
Cheap and reliable energy (for all humanity) will be an essential part of the equation.
20
Sorry, but current globalist planning has little or no room for science advisories or journalists:
00
see https://vidzhaya.wordpress.com/2015/06/16/scientific-advice-to-uk-government-is-increasingly-diluted-warns-senior-mp/
00
Jo,
Here’s a tip and a hint:
Tip – be kind to your parents.
Hint – don’t have two Weekend Unthreadeds.
30
toorightmate:
It is a troll trap. They rush into the first and comment without thinking. Much as they always do.
10
Is this proof that increased levels of CO2 have doubled the numbers of weekend unthreaded threads?
30
I thought I was (not) seeing things I thought had been there last night…then realised why! A double take.
10
Lets see if I can make this unambiguous.
Here is a plot of global precipitation since 1979. It comes from satellite sensors
Strange that we have GW making the weather weirder, air more humid as well as warm, and it all cancels out so beautifully.
30
That’s a bit like saying all the food in the supermarkets in the USA cancels out all the famine in South Sudan.
It might be a bit more useful to be looking at where the rainfall is occurring, for example:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=trend-maps&tQ%5Bmap%5D=rain&tQ%5Barea%5D=aus&tQ%5Bseason%5D=0112&tQ%5Bperiod%5D=1950
Some very significant changes in rainfall patterns.
41
Can we agree the cause is a southward migration of the Sub Tropical Ridge?
00
For the uninitiated, this is the general AGW argument.
http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/study-links-drought-with-rising-emissions-20090815-elpf.html
00
And here is more detail from Klimatariat HQ.
http://www.seaci.org/publications/documents/SEACI-1%20Reports/S1_FR111P.pdf
00
Here’s an article on the bogus methodology behind the US Government (mal)nutrition guidelines. If you think about it; obesity from eating is a form of malnutrion.
Title: The Inadmissibility of What We Eat in America and NHANES Dietary Data in Nutrition and Obesity Research and the Scientific Formulation of National Dietary Guidelines
I’ve added emphasis to a nugget.
40
And here is the Mayor of New Zealand’s Capital city:
She’s not on her own, just have a squizz at the comments. All of the catch phrases in the warmies’ vocabulary: ‘97% of scientists’, ‘NASA’s scientific consensus’, ‘we’re doomed’, ad nauseum.
11
Looks like when we were there back in the 1980s!
00
Has anyone else noted the none too subtle way that the ABC has started to use their news outlets, digital, Radio, and TV, to advertise their upcoming current affairs programs. The TV news bulletin will do a related article taking excerpts from the program and then as the closing comment add that the full story can be seen on tonight’s 7.30, or Lateline, or Four Corners etc.
News is for just that purpose. To tell the news.
Today’s Online news is no different with an advertorial for tonight’s Four Corners program on, umm, The End Of Coal. (article at this link, and note the Comments section)
Perhaps the ABC might indicate their, umm, 24 hour electrical power consumption details for us, so we have an idea as to where our money might be going, just where they source their 24 hour power, and what steps they are taking to ensure a move to using renewable power only, and take the whole ABC off their own addiction to coal fired power.
Tony.
100
Tony, on the matter of where to get our power if it doesn’t come from coal, I have a related comment currently in moderation which should eventually appear as comment #30 at this link.
21
I’m impressed that someone has had the foresight to downvote my link to my moderated future comment even before that comment has been released from moderation for viewing. If this downvoter has the ability to accurately predict future events and telepathically sense hidden information they should immediately cash in on their ability by rendering services to clients in Wall Street and ASIO.
31
No problem Andrew, just change your name. That means they have to read what you have written; assuming that they can read.
01
Has anybody noticed the massive increase in talk of “stranded assets” lately?
For example:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11443648/Chinas-bursting-coal-bubble-raises-fear-of-stranded-assets.html
and
http://www.mining.com/australian-coal-investments-at-risk-of-becoming-stranded-assets-oxford-study-says/
“According to a new report by Oxford University, commissioned by HSBC’s Climate Change Centre of Excellence, China’s demand for coal is changing. Driven by environmental concerns, political pressure, developments in cleaner technologies and gas markets, the Asian giant could reduce its consumption. This could drag down prices, putting Australia’s coal reserves and infrastructure at risk of becoming ‘stranded assets.'”
Gosh, I’m glad I haven’t been investing in coal lately. In fact, it’s lucky nobody in Australia is doing that – look at the project cancellations affecting coal power:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proposed_power_stations_in_Australia
And here we see that 3 out of 8 of NSW’s coal-fired power stations have recently been shut down:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_New_South_Wales
Victoria hasn’t built a new one for 25 years, with one scheduled to shut down this year:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_Victoria_(Australia)
South Australia’s 2 coal-fired power stations are already shut more often then running, and are both scheduled for permanent decommissioning:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_power_stations_in_South_Australia
It’s almost like…..coal is soon to be history.
32
Craig, you mention that:
I’m just wondering why a number of monster companies around the World are still working on equipment that can only be used for coal fired power plants.
USC coal fired power plants.
Advanced USC coal fired power plants, including in the United States, where coal is supposedly dying.
Metal Companies working on new metals only for use in these new tech coal fired plants
Generators specifically for use in these new plants.
Turbines which are specifically being designed for these plants, and only these plants.
Furnaces, boilers, and the list goes on.
Investment in these technologies is not confined to one Company, but many of them, some the biggest in the Industry.
There is quite literally hundreds of Billions of dollars involved in this, only for coal fired power plants.
You have to wonder how some of the biggest Companies on Earth are still investing Billions in what you class as stranded assets.
Craig, you need to not believe what your string pulling puppet masters are telling you.
None of these Companies can afford losses like that if there is no future as you say.
Craig, you follow your heart felt wish.
As for us Craig, we just look at where the money is going, and make decisions based on that, and Craig, I’ll bet we’re closer to the mark than you are with your green dream.
Tony.
21
In the real world, Tony, coal is losing market share in the US electricity-generation market:
http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-and-you/
I agree with you: just look at where the money is going…
21
Rumours of the demise of coal are greatly exaggerated :-
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/12/us-column-russell-coal-indonesia-idUSKBN0OQ12V20150612
Whilst you are correct in saying that there has been a reduction in imports to China from approx. a billion tonnes to around 600 million tonnes the demand from India remains high at around 240 million tonnes and is predicted to increase.
With Indonesia requiring some coal based infrastructure we can easily anticipate the burning of in excess of a billion tonnes of coal per annum ,injecting a delicious 7 billion tonnes (?)of CO2 into the atmosphere.
AAAAAHHH , gotta love the smell of CO2 in the morning.
20
Again Craig, you show just how clueless you really are when you say those coal fired power plants in NSW are closing.
Nothing whatsoever, (and let me stress NOTHING) to do with stranded assets.
Both Munmorah and Wallerawang were 50 years old and older. Please, oh please point me at a wind plant which has lasted, or will last for 50 years.
Both those NSW plants were used as rolling reserve only, and as new gas fired plants took over the job they were solely used for, they no longer needed to run.
Oh Craig, keep coming here and commenting. You just can’t help doing it.
You’re the gift that keeps on giving.
Tony.
22
The bad news for coal keeps on coming: the EIA seems to think investment is mostly going elsewhere:
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21492
Almost a 4:1 ratio of investment in renewables versus investment in coal projected for 2015-2020.
It’s is definitely interesting to see where the money is *really* going…
21
Hardly time for a requiem.
Global coal use is growing faster than any other energy source.
00
Rod,
great article.
Could you tell me where I might access the whole of that Post?
I noted this amongst so many things which could be quoted:
That’s 225 large scale (2000MW+) coal fired power plants.
It would seem that China will be needing a lot of coal for a very very long time.
Tony.
10
Tony
It was on Catallaxy files this morning.
That was all there was to it.
China has a lot of its own coal.
Besides which there is no shortage of countries willing to sell it coal.
Yes that is a lot of coal. Certainly enough to bury a few hundred windmills.
10
Tony
Notice the comment “a glut of oil”? “The warmists have reached “peak bullshit”.
00
Also they appear to have given-up on trying to hide the fact that nearly half the wind farms in China are not grid connected.
Yes some are connected to local networks but this would appear to be for the fig-leaf of cover it gives them when explaining so little progress. I’m sure the greenies of the world look on in credulous joy at all the spinners there.
Also for note is this http://stopthesethings.com/2015/05/24/chinas-wind-power-ponzi-scheme-collapsing-grid-operators-refusing-to-connect-wind-farms/
The title says it all.
00
“Coal use is growing faster than any other energy source” is an odd statement.
Coal use is projected to rise 2.1%/year:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-17/iea-report-shows-coal-growth-to-continue/5971544
Renewables are, of course, growing at well over 2x this rate.
I also note a lot of people seem to place enormous faith in China’s communist system’s ability to follow a rational economic policy: do they really believe all these new coal plants are going to be used to actually generate electricity on top of the electricity being generated by the existing coal plants?
20
Craig, I know what you’re doing here. You’re taking the pi$$, aren’t you.
Surely even you realise the electrical power availability in China.
In the US, they consume 4100TWH of power a year for a population of 320 Million.
In Australia, we consume 200TWH of power a year for a population of 23 Million
In China, they consume 5200TWH of power a year for a population of 1.4 Billion
That gives a breakdown of:
US – 12812KWH per person
Australia – 8605KWH per person
China – 3714KWH per person.
Now, while this just breaks it down to a per capita basis, something which is erroneous because Industrialistion is different, it’s patently obvious that the the US has a far greater consumption per head than China, in fact, almost four times as much.
So then, a breakdown by sector
US – Residential 38%, Commerce 37%, and Industry 24%.
Australia – Residential 28%, Commerce and Industry 72%
China – Residential 15%, Commerce and Industry 85%
That per capita figure is due not because China is more frugal with their consumption. It’s because up to 300 Million people in China have NO access whatsoever to electrical power, and probably as much again with very limited access to electrical power.
As China industrialises then the power coming on line will be made available to more of those people without it than there is now.
That will take probably decades and each of those new power plants will be providing power for every use, and people will gain access to something even you take so utterly for granted.
So, even we know that you’re just fishing for bites here.
Either that, or you really are clueless indeed.
Tony.
20
TonyfromOz –
you beat me to it. whereas CAGW science is gobblegook to most of the public, they would more easily grasp the economics, if they were properly informed, & not by those with invested interests.
that is why it is unconscionable that the MSM does not have someone like you doing a weekly column, or responding to, outlandish claims re fossil fuels vs solar/wind & so on.
if ABC is not willing to quote the facts about coal, nor have anyone who understands such matters explain the facts, surely that is a violation of rules re financial advice.
a second ABC piece to go with yours, plus the promos, plus the broadcast tonite and the repeats, etc:
15 June: ABC 4 Corners: The End of Coal?
By Geoff Thompson and Deborah RichardsWith the price of coal plummeting and our biggest customers turning to renewable energy, is Australia backing a loser?
When Prime Minister Tony Abbott famously declared coal to be “good for humanity” and “essential to the prosperity of Australia”
there was no doubting he saw a coal-fuelled future for the nation…
Four Corners explores the driving forces that neither the Federal Government nor the mining industry can control.
Among the challenges, rapid technological change revolutionising the way we generate and store power.
“It is totally a game changer.” Christina Figuerres, UN Climate Change Chief
And investors are getting nervous.
“With fossil fuels we want to get out as quickly as possible for financial reasons, as fast as is prudent, but also because we feel like the value of these stocks is really declining.” US Investor
“Financial markets though operate like a herd. Once one of the bulls runs, a stampede is caused.” Energy Analyst
And with countries like China, America and the rest of the G7 committing to curbs on fossil fuels, will Australia be left on the wrong side of history?
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2015/06/15/4253096.htm
how does SBS get away with publishing the following?
14 June: SBS: Comment: The end is in sight for the coal industry
(Simon Copland is a freelance writer and climate campaigner. He is a regular columnist for the Sydney Star Observer and blogs
at The Moonbat.)
A move by Norway to rid itself of coal investments in its sovereign wealth fund has big implications, writes Simon Copland.
While it didn’t necessarily make huge global headlines, this is potentially one of the biggest climate policy announcements in years…
Over the past few years fossil fuels, and in particular coal, has been suffering significantly…
But it’s not just China. After his election new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi started cutting coal subsidies and increasing taxes, whilst in the United States President Barack Obama has circumvented the recalcitrant Congress to introduce his own limits on coal pollution…
Communities around the world are stepping up, and the fossil fuel industry is suffering because of it. The question now is one of not if, but when, the industry will finally die.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/2015/06/14/comment-end-sight-coal-industry
31
I looked up the numbers a few days ago.
620 coal fired power stations in China. Still opening a new one every month
100
With no real end in sight either. China mentions that it could be as early as 2030.
Even so, keep in mind that any large scale plant which opens has a 50 year life span, so even if (pretty big if, too) 2030 does see the last one come on line, then they will be in operation until 2080.
Then you have India ramping up their new coal fired plants, then other Countries in SE Asia, and then Africa just MUST begin their move to this, as their Leaders see the benefits of giving their people access to reliable electrical power, with reliable being the accentuated point here.
You only need to look at it from an economic point of view, and you’ll see that there are hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars involved in the following.
Generator manufacturers are actively involved in the development of generators capable of 1800 to 2000MW single units.
Turbine manufacturers are actively involved in larger steam turbines specifically to drive these bigger generators and do it more efficiently.
Companies are actively involved in finding new metals compositions to withstand the higher operating temperatures associated with only one form of power generation, coal fired power.
Companies are actively working on Advanced USC, the next step up from USC, and some of these are even within the U.S. where (supposedly) coal is on its last legs. USC already offers reduction in coal burning of up to 12 to 15% and Advanced USC could even see further reductions of 9% on top of that.
These are not just theory, or dare I say it, modeling, but in actual work right now.
If coal was supposedly dying out, these companies would be ceasing work immediately, instead of flushing their billions down the toilet.
Uninformed people look at tired old 50 year old plants on their last legs and just say ….. well, let them die. Elsewhere, people are replacing those old plants with new plants, burning considerably less coal, and supplying monumentally huge amounts of electricity, electricity which will be available on tap, whenever it is needed, a regular, reliable constant delivery of power required to keep a modern World actually functioning.
Trust me, coal fired power has a very, very long future.
Tony.
140
Nice to have all that power. What bothers me for the future is population. ~2,000,000,000 in 1940, predicted to be ~8,000,000,000 in 2020. Taking 1900 at ~1,000,000,000 gives a doubling every 40 years thus expect a global population of ~16,000,000,000 by 2060. Lot of life left in the coal fired power stations by then but will there be enough land to grow food for the people? The land area is NOT increasing. Predictions for shortened growing periods seem to be holding. (world IS cooling!)
I won’t have to worry about it but the youngsters are not being prepared. Sad really.
40
And yet, strangely, coal-fired power is *falling*. It’s almost like….you’re missing half the picture.
Maybe…they are closing more plants than they are opening?
http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/china-demand-for-coalfired-electricity-falls-by-10-per-cent-in-march-quarter-20150416-1mmo8t
“China’s consumption of electricity from coal-fired power stations fell 10 per cent over the first three months of the year”
“China’s coal imports fell 42 per cent over the first quarter of the year, ”
It is nice that you have so much faith in China’s communist system to deliver rational economic outcomes, though….
31
If you had bothered to read the rest of the article to which you refer, you may have realised that the decrease in energy consumption was a result of a decrease in iron and steel production, and also a decrease of cement production. Both of these changes were planned, over a decade ago, as was the corresponding decrease in coal importation.
Also, China are currently bringing more hydro on stream, also as planned.
The trouble with western journalists, is that they think news is about today’s events, while missing the fact that today’s events are the outcome of decisions made years ago, so are hardly news to the real China-Watchers.
21
So coal-fired power is dwindling while renewables are growing. That’s exactly what I thought was happening, too. Glad we’re on the same page.
20
Hypocrisy on stilts.
Norway’s entire economy, high standard of living and by extension their sovereign wealth fund, rests on the export of fossil fuels; 67% of export income comes from crude oil, refined oil and petroleum gas.
And why aren’t they subject to the same activist pressure as coal exporters?
60
So….the police shouldn’t arrest any rapists if there are any murderers at large, is that your logic?
21
The Sovereign Wealth Fund is divesting its investment in coal.
It is selling its shares, presumably to the highest bidder or bidders. It is a political decision, that is being spun for all it is worth by Simon Copeland, the well known Sydney propagandist.
It says nothing about a reduction of exports.
10
15 June: Bolt Blog: When will Four Corners give up this green porn?
(Bolt excerpts Australian Financial Review article)
Kerry O’Brien will commute from Byron Bay to Sydney in Business class on Monday to read from an autocue for approximately 40 seconds before retiring to Royal Sydney Golf Club and then flying home the following day. This weekly service costs the taxpayer around $200,000 each year.
This week he will introduce a segment called The End of Coal, whose promos ask “will Australia be left on the wrong side of history?”…
(C)orrespondent Marian Wilkinson has already brought two segments to air suggesting the coal industry is threatening the Great Barrier Reef: one in September last year called Battle for the Reef … and one in November 2011 called Great Barrier Grief.
In July 2014, Power to the People bemoaned Australia’s failure to embrace renewable energy despite a “revolution in power generation taking place across the globe”.
In May 2012, Casualties of the Boom documented how “massive mining developments are killing communities in regional Australia”.
In February 2011, The Gash Rush investigated “the cost to farmers and the environment” of the coal seam gas industry. April 2013’s Gas Leak! was no different.
But our personal favourite is April 2010’s A Dirty Business about “how the people of a once picturesque valley found themselves surrounded by coalmines, dust and toxic chemicals, while the state government ignores their pleas for help”.
Anyone seeing a pattern here?…etc
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/when_will_four_corners_give_up_this_green_porn/
India’s growing demand drives NSW’s coal export
The Australian – 11 hours ago
High overseas demand will boost Queensland coal exports
Courier Mail-12 hours ago
“Coal exports to end-May sit at about 200 million tonnes and are set to reach a new record of around 220Mt for 2014-15 financial year,”
Future Bright for Queensland Coal As Export Records Tumble
My Sunshine Coast (press release)-1 hour ago
23 new power plants to go online by 2020
ABS CBN News-1 hour ago
MANILA – The Philippines will have 23 new coal-fired power plants by 2020
Investment lights fire under wet coal exports
Lawyers Weekly-2 hours ago
PT Bukit Asam is one of Indonesia’s biggest and most profitable coal companies.
and on and on.
the MSM needs to be presented with clear graphics:
showing all the coal-fired power plants being built, planned, etc.
showing the real contribution of solar & wind as opposed even to hydro.
showing the number of nuclear reactors being built/planned in China etc.
and ABC/SBS must be made to include these facts and figures when making outlandish claims by or on behalf of those with vested interests in wind and solar.
111
Not a hope
There is a ramp-up of anti-coal propaganda occurring. This is prompted by potential development of the North Central Q’ld Galilee Basin coal deposits becoming clearer
About 10 years ago we geologists ran a “book” on when the Galilee Basin would see Greenpeace International rappelling down out of ABC-funded choppers to save the planet. So far our timetable for this piece of entertainment is on track
60
Paving Paradise: The Peril of Impervious Surfaces
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1257665/
Paved surfaces are quite possibly the most ubiquitous structures created by humans. In the United States alone, pavements and other impervious surfaces cover more than 43,000 square miles—an area nearly the size of Ohio—according to research published in the 15 June 2004 issue of Eos, the newsletter of the American Geophysical Union. Bruce Ferguson, director of the University of Georgia School of Environmental Design and author of the 2005 book Porous Pavements, says that a quarter of a million U.S. acres are either paved or repaved every year. Impervious surfaces can be concrete or asphalt, they can be roofs or parking lots, but they all have at least one thing in common—water runs off of them, not through them. And with that runoff comes a host of problems….
=======
With other development I am certain the number is by far higher. Add to that improperly sited met stations and voila… lots of bad data.
20
Where is this afternoon’s weekend unthreaded?
30
I read your blog. It had this bit in the MSDS for DDT
What did the critters die from? Suicide because they couldn’t take the irritation anymore?
10
reading my blog is bad for your health without the input of DDT.
00
I presume you-all saw this: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/12/polar-bears-eat-dolphins-as-arctic-warms. It claims that animals can “adapt” to climate change!
40
The white-beaked dolphin range goes all the way to Svalbard where the photo was taken.
If anything, the sudden cold snap (due to global warming?) caused the dolphins to become easy prey. Check out my search though. . Every useful idiot has jumped on the band wagon.
30
Just got here as I was away this weekend.
Still no news on the BOM temperature review?
00
They are looking into it.
It is in the ABC news queue, just after TURC.
00
TonyfromOz –
remember when ABC insisted on having a bunch of CAGW fanatics “debate” (LOL) “The Great Global Warming Swindle” when they aired it in 2007. surely there should be such a debate after the 4 Corners program tonite!
perhaps here at Jo’s website we could make suggestions for an email to be sent to ABC’s Mark Scott, 4 Corners’ editors, journalists, etc., detailing the facts and figures on coal – and projected carbon dioxide emissions for giants like China & India going forward – & demanding this is explained before or after the 4 Corners program!
a couple of examples of information that could be included:
December 2014: Inernational Energy Agency: Global coal demand to reach 9 billion tonnes per year by 2019
Global demand for coal over the next five years will continue marching higher, breaking the 9-billion-tonne level by 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report released today. The report notes that despite China’s efforts to moderate its coal consumption, it will still account for three-fifths of demand growth during the outlook period. Moreover, China will be joined by India, ASEAN countries and other countries in Asia as the main engines of growth in coal consumption, offsetting declines in Europe and the United States…
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2014/december/global-coal-demand-to-reach-9-billion-tonnes-per-year-by-2019.html
the projected carbon dioxide emissions for India:
PDF: 30 pages: Centre for Policy Research India: Informing India’s Energy and Climate Debate: Policy Lessons from Modelling Studies
(page 17) However, the picture looks very different with per capita emissions (Figure 5). Even after doubling or tripling per capita emission levels, India’s 2030 emissions are in the range about 3.25 tonnes/capita, +/- 0.45 tonnes, which on a global scale is relatively narrow. Notably, this 2030 range is well below the current 2011 world average of 4.6 tonnes/capita…
http://www.cprindia.org/sites/default/files/events/Informing%20India%27s%20Energy%20and%20Climate%20Debate_CPR-IIASA.pdf
if the Australian public were informed on these issues, they would realise the absurdity of the attacks on the Govt over its CAGW policies.
61
A marvelous idea indeed.
Remember that Janet Albrechtsen is on the board now (or is it July 1 her appointment is valid)
Janet is sympathetic to our cause. ( or unsympathetic to their cause)
[email protected]
40
2 more possible inclusions:
14 June: Courier Mail: John McCarthy: High overseas demand will boost Queensland coal exports
Queensland Resources Council chief executive Michael Roche said despite the price downturn there was still significant demand for the state’s commodities, and in particular, coal.
“Coal exports to end-May sit at about 200 million tonnes and are set to reach a new record of around 220Mt for 2014-15 financial year,” Mr Roche said.
“This new record level of coal exports will be 5 per cent higher than last year’s 209 Mt, driven by continued strong demand from China, Japan, India and Korea for the Bowen Basin’s high quality coking coals, used in production of raw steel.
“In the medium term we expect those Queensland export numbers to increase with the growth in demand for Queensland thermal coal from energy hungry nations such as India.”…
http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/high-overseas-demand-will-boost-queensland-coal-exports/story-fnihsps3-1227397652341
September 2014: Forbes: Jude Clemente: India Will Be Using and Importing More Coal
India’s Coal Imports Have Nearly Tripled Since 2008…
The Need for More Coal to Make Steel
Met (metallurgical) coal is used to produce coke which is critical in steelmaking. Indian steelmakers used ~40 million tonnes of met coal last year, and imports could more than triple to 110 million tonnes by 2025, while steel capacity also triples to 300 million tonnes…
Coal Imports Will Continue to Boom
The IEA projects that India will be the world’s largest coal importer by 2020…
http://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2014/11/09/india-will-be-using-and-importing-more-coal/
21
Jo —
Several months ago you posted about some back-up software (the name escapes me) you had recently found and were using.
It would be interesting to me to learn how you feel about that software after using it for a while.
Thanks.
10
ross we still like that software. still good.
This was the post. hard to impress david with software.
01 A nice software surprise (better than SyncToy), and an update from David (73)
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/10/a-nice-software-surprise-better-then-synctoy-and-an-update-from-david/
00
Thank you.
00
Rod Stuart –
yes, it would be good to send accumulated links to all members of the ABC Board. really, a taxpayer-funded entity should not be able to make up facts & figures on the economics of energy.
another couple worth including:
8 June: Guardian: John Vidal: Five G7 nations increased their coal use over a five-year period, research shows
Britain, Germany, Italy, Japan and France burned more coal between 2009 and 2013 and demanded poor countries slash their carbon emissions
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jun/08/five-g7-nations-increased-their-coal-use-over-a-five-year-period-research-shows
revision of what the MSM has been spouting of late, such as “Chinese coal consumption fell in 2014 and may have passed its all-time peak”:
10 June: Carbon Counter: BP: China’s coal consumption did not fall last year
I wrote earlier in the week that we should be skeptical about China’s coal statistics. As Glen Peters has said, they are like a bottle of wine and improve with age.
So when we saw the claim that coal consumption, and CO2 emissions, fell last year the wise thing to do would be to wait for more data.
And here is the latest. BP has just released its Statistical Review of World Energy. Instead of falling by 3.5% as some have claimed, BP estimates that it actually increased by 0.1%.
Similarly, BP estimates that China’s energy related CO2 emissions did not fall, but increased by 0.9%.
BP also estimates that global energy related CO2 emissions increased by 0.5%, which contradicts the claim by the International Energy Agency that they fell…
https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/10/bp-chinas-coal-consumption-did-not-fall-last-year/
31
I went looking for a list of board members and found this instead:
To Contact the ABC Board:
ABC Secretariat
Board Executive Officer
Box 9994 GPO Sydney NSW 2001
Telephone (02) 8333 5312
Fax (02) 8333 5482
Email [email protected]
I wonder if an email to [email protected] would work?
21
February 2015: This Day Nigeria: Coal Power to the Rescue
Today, coal-fired power plants provide about 41 per cent of global electricity. With Nigeria’s electricity challenges, the government is turning to coal as an alternative energy source.
Five out of the 10 world’s leading coal producers had in 2014 generated most of the electricity used in powering their economies from their coal power plants…
The five countries – South Africa, Australia, Poland, China and Kazakhstan had within this period respectively generated 93, 78, 87, 79 and 75 per cent of the electricity used to ensure that their economies were up and running through coal…
Apart from these five, other countries with established electricity industries such as the United States (38 per cent), Israel (61), Indonesia (48), Germany (44) and United Kingdom (39), have all placed regular emphasis on the use of coal to generate electricity and ensure to great extents energy security for their economies…
Characterised by frequent facilities failure (gas pipeline breaks, transmission breakdown, distribution challenges), electricity supply in Nigeria has remained abysmally low when compared with the country’s estimated demand and potential energy sources.
Therefore, it is no longer news that from her conventional hydro and thermal power plants, Nigeria generates just about 4,500 megawatts (MW) of electricity, a lot far short of what she requires to support her economic aspirations.
But to keep her current population (which about 50 per cent do not have access to grid electricity) and economy alive, the federal government has estimated that the country would need at least 20,000MW of stable electricity by the year 2020 and 40,000MW by 2030…
***The government recently said that Nigeria has about 2.8 billion metric tonnes of coal deposits left untapped and which if tapped, can generate electricity for the country for about 30 years…
For Nigeria, viable and bankable coal power generation can now be said to be possible with the right conditions as provided for in the country’s power reform exercise, it is therefore a no-brainer for the government to balance its priority in energy security with a deliberate policy on coal to power, like its recent decision to award coal mining licenses to only investors that are willing and capable of generating electricity with their coal mining blocks.
http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/coal-power-to-the-rescue/200817/
June 2015: Ghana Web: Coal energy policy heads to Parliament
The country has thus moved a step closer to joining almost half of the world’s economies that use coal-fired plant to generate cheap electricity for its population — amidst claims that coal is the dirtiest form of energy, producing high amount of carbon emissions.
Power Minister Dr.Kwabena Donkor told Parliament last week: “It is believed that you can generate electricity at about 8cents per kilowatt hour using coal as against the 13 and 14 cents that we are paying using other sources of thermal generation. If this country is to establish a reliable power base, then we have to look at other sources.
“We will be bringing some of this policy documents to the House, and once it is approved — irrespective of who is the Commander in Chief at any one time — we will be able to prevent the recurrence of load-shedding.”…
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/business/artikel.php?ID=361773
June 2015: Indian Express: IB report to PMO: Greenpeace is a threat to national economic security
Written by Amitav Ranjan , Priyadarshi Siddhanta
An Intelligence Bureau report on foreign-funded NGOs “negatively impacting economic development” in India has called Greenpeace “a threat to national economic security”, citing activities ranging from protests against nuclear and coal plants and funding of “sympathetic” research, to allegedly helping out an Aam Aadmi Party candidate in the recent Lok Sabha elections.
The allegations are part of the IB’s report, dated June 3, submitted to the Prime Minister’s Office. As reported first by The Indian Express, the IB claims the negative impact of the NGOs’ role on GDP growth to be “2-3 per cent per annum”. The report, signed by IB Joint Director S A Rizvi, accuses Greenpeace of contravening laws to “change the dynamics of India’s energy mix”…
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/ib-report-to-pmo-greenpeace-is-a-threat-to-national-economic-security/
41
Just sitting here watching it actually, for a change, rain and I fell to musing on the silliness of windfarm advocates in the face of shutdowns of coal fired generation. I had a little fantasy on the possibility of putting a skilled hacker together with these lovely remote controlled smart meter systems and arranging things so that the watermelons power was cut off when the country’s wind farm output fell below some porportion of nameplate capacity. Let’s be generous and say anything below 20% equals lights out, that should give them power for a little more than half the time. Apart from the warm fuzzy feeling this would engender it may serve to demonstrate the unsuitability of this power source for a modern society before the grid deteriorates to the point where power has to be cut off from important things like factories, hospitals, the poor and so on.
Just an idle fantasy, not to be read as encouragement to anyone.
81
I also muse on such things LC. My opinion is that those who believe we should subsist solely on ‘renewable’ power should be made to do exactly that from now on…leading by example. Some hope! 🙁
10
i’m no good at these things, but would love if Rod Stuart or someone who has located email addresses for the ABC Board would gather the links together and do a preamble, such as:
please forward to: Geoff Thompson, Deborah Richards & Kerry O’Brien
re Four Corners 15 June: The End of Coal?
15 June: ABC 4 Corners: The End of Coal?
By Geoff Thompson and Deborah Richards
With the price of coal plummeting and our biggest customers turning to renewable energy, is Australia backing a loser?
And with countries like China, America and the rest of the G7 committing to
curbs on fossil fuels, will Australia be left on the wrong side of history?
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2015/06/15/4253096.htm
if your program does not include any of the following information, would ABC please advise the public before or after the program of these facts and figures.
after all, when ABC broadcast “The Great Global Warming Swindle” in 2007, it considered it necessary to follow it with a “debate” featuring a panel made up almost entirely of manmade global warming advocates.
(COPY AND PASTE ALL THE LINKS ABOVE)
Sincerely,
21
Yikes!
I can’t quite believe it.
I got a comment put up at the ABC article on Coal fired power.
Can’t wait to see the responses.
Tony.
Link to article
71
Tony – whatever you do don’t go back to engage the mess of fantasy and illogic evident in the comments. You will be out of commission for a whole season.
Gems: ” you don’t need baseload generators to provide baseload”
and “after the SA station fire wind generators took up the slack”
One commentator said “nobody is suggesting renewables replace fossil fuels”. What was it the G7 announced last week?
Stupid is as stupid does (and says).
31
Well done Tony. The other comments weren’t very good for my blood pressure! They’ve really swallowed the hype…those who believe it’s ‘their’ ABC speaking for them.
21
You mean, comments such as the one where somebody points out that the Port Augusta cola-fired plant is being shut down because its generation capacity has been replaced by cheaper renewables?
If the real world causes you so much stress, I recommend you give up those of your ideas that conflict with it.
34
Looks like you got properly slapped down:
You got done like a dinner on that one.
Face it Tony: your opinions are decades out of whack with reality.
35
Until you can explain where you are going to get 22,000MW of continuous 24 hour power from, then the meme your side keeps putting out there that Base Load is a myth is just that, a baseless meme, perpetuated by people who have no understanding about power consumption.
Look at any day you like back as far as you wish to go and note it has never fallen below that level in Australia.
Just where do you propose to get that power from?
That IS reality.
Tony.
31
Tony,
Currently electricity is mostly demand governed. To the lefties this is just wrong. People are out there making their own decisions on consumption based only on the market price, and what they can they can afford. And as all lefties know allowing the market to regulate itself through supply and demand balancing is wrong; even with current government interference in the market. It so unequal, so unfair they cry!
Most of this modern world, and how it’s currently maintained, is because of the relatively low cost of electricity, with the efficiencies that the market can stand; that we all can afford. To the left that low cost is wrong. The efficiencies of the market through the exploitation of nature’s bounty of coal-fired generation for the leftie-elite is wrong. Take that low cost away and modern life suffers and suffers badly — everywhere.
The bottom line is that elites want electricity production to be more expensive and limited. By simply pulling the pug on coal they know that their goal is easily achieved, that move alone gives them near total control over most people’s lives.
The left-wing elites dislike the idea of Joe and Joanne Public deciding when to use as much, or as little, electricity as they desire and can afford. Freely consuming just how much and when they want to — all at the flick of a switch.
How dare they, eh?
So enter the ‘smart’ leftie ideas — after killing coal the main push is for ‘smart’ meters and ‘smart’ household appliances. That way the producers (through dumb big government levies, laws and rules) decide who and where the limited power will go. Who and by what authority will they control ‘smart’ meters and household appliances? Remember you do not own that meter, even when you pay for the installation.
Don’t think this is not the future? — THIS CONTROL IS A PRIMARY AIM OF THE ELITES!
Guess who pays for all this ‘smart’ regulation on limiting your lives for no good reason?
00
So explain to us why you want socialist-style state-subsidy of the coal industry to continue?
31
Craig,
So typical, if you can’t handle the response shut down the debate.
The debate was shut down very quickly on Tony’s comment.
SA is lucky it still has a coal power capacity supplied from Victoria.
The myth is “Once and for all baseload requirement is a myth”
The fact is ‘Baseload is required to maintain windfarms.’
12
“Baseload” is not a term that describes any functional requirement of a power-generation system. It is a term that is *descriptive* of the inefficient inability of legacy coal-fired power to vary output to match demand.
21
Square Waves Infect ACORN
http://www.warwickhughes.com/blog/?p=3772
10
Jo, an issue that ought to be dear to skeptical environmentalists has arisen.
Our government is thinking of using trees to fuel power plants instead of coal.
The Greens-affiliated group Markets For Change have sent out their alerts:
A study quoted by Markets For Change about the net effect of switching from coal to forestry is here… http://www.eeb.org/?LinkServID=8481F382-A488-5532-533788C21A65D484&showMeta=0&aa
…with Figure 1 being quite illustrative. Due to the slow regrowth time, the forest being harvested as often as possible instead of the point where it equals the original biomass, and the higher CO2 emissions per unit power generated, switching to forestry biomass for power generation results in higher cumulative emissions relative to the coal scenario during the first 260 years. The greenhouse theory states that temperature is logarithmic with CO2 partial pressure, therefore the earlier the CO2 level is stabilised the less warming occurs. So even if you believe CO2 makes some significant difference to climate and should be reduced, the changes being plotted in our parliament this week would be contrary to that purpose for the next two centuries. There’s a chance that in 260 years we could be at the onset of the next glaciation (currently overdue) and nobody will be worried about preventing warming at that point.
It is ridiculous of MfC and the Greens to say that biofuels shouldn’t count as “renewable energy” when trees are the most renewable resource we have. The problem is not its unsustainable by itself, the immediate problem is that there’s other aesthetically valuable stuff which won’t be sustained because of repurposing of the land.
The sheer amount of land area which would be required to service anywhere near the amount of demanded power via biofuel would place native wildlife areas into competition with logging, with subsequent loss of various cute and cuddly things. Remember the native forests already grow everywhere that the soil and climate conditions are satisfied for tree growth. The only ways to use biofuel without a wildlife massacre is to use irrigation on an unforested patch of land where the soil is fine and the only missing component is rainfall, or use GMO-algae in tanks to make biodiesel. There are various studies which address the land area required which I won’t go into now, but you can imagine it’s pretty bloody huge. I believe the Drax power station in the UK being fuelled by woodchips from the USA is a current example – and an example which nearly everyone on Jo’s blog disliked when it came up for discussion.
We cannot transition from an unsustainable energy supply to a sustainable energy supply through isolated piecemeal changes like this biofuel subsidy proposal. The only way the energy supply is sustainable is if the energy demand is sustainable, and that can only occur with a zero growth rate in demand. That completely upsets the entire infinite growth mantra that national economies have been expecting, it is a fundamental change which requires systemic rework globally. Allowing wood burning in the RET scheme doesn’t address the fundamentals of sustainable energy supply.
It’s a test of Tony Abbot’s support base. Do the Liberal-lovers love the LNP and Tony Abbott so much and hate the Greens so much that they will sit idly by the fireplace just to spite the Greens while the LNP issues death warrants for our wildlife. Remember it’s not just Tasmanian forests that are threatened, it’s national legislation. You can’t create a national subsidy for burning wood fibre in power stations and expect natural market forces to ignore it. Yes, that’s the LNP interfering in the wood market by proposing a new subsidy, remind me how they are “right wing” again.
Mind you, there is at least one voice of reason amidst the LNP insanity:
Thank Gaia someone mentioned the nuclear elephant in the room. When you find lone voices of reason in Parliament, whether it’s David Davies in the UK Tories, or Keith Pitt in the Australian LNP, you should lend them your support.
61
It’s wood WASTE in the bill before the senate.
It’s branches, bark, wane from the milling operation, etc. that is burned anyhow.
Typical of the ABC and the Green Blob to obfuscate the issue.
10
No doubt you’re watching ABCs Four Corners. How does it feel to watch Capitalism take your denial? Are you going to deny business their opportunity to flourish? How’s the notch? Nearly one year later and no article in a scientific journal. Are you a leaner not a lifter?
Cheers
33
Real capitalism would mean no RET, no subsidies and not one single wind farm. Capitalism is other countries deciding to use their own coal instead of importing. That’ll reduce CO2!
Capitalism run rampant is using useful idiots to create a bargain.
21
Oops!. OK There are two unthreaded’s in a row because of a computer glitch last week. I put off the double one then til this week, and totally forgot I had prescheduled that errant extra unthreaded. Silly silly me.
My brain is distracted. Got a very minor kiddie-school winter cold, and separately a garden superbug in my finger. No more speed gardening without glovews for me eh?
Tonight, drumroll, I caught that swollen finger in the door. TYhe pain. the pain.#%$^%$# can not use left hand. what a silly sausage!
my heart goes out to people living with chronic pain. how incapacitating. mine — eyewatering hurt — is temporary. blessedly. I assume Ill be right in a day or two. thank goodness for antibiotics and tetnus vacc. – Jo
50
Ouch! Jo. That’s nasty, I hope it’s calming down by now. As well as the soreness hand injuries have a lot of nuisance value.
10
Jo I’m sure there’s a law for it but you will often knock/bump an existing injury, if it’s any consultation I get “bitten” by many letterbox openings with the metal flap, recently one grabbed my index finger on a downhill delivery stopping me and the bike with my finger the only thing preventing a forward motion, it hurt and I said “oh drat!” the upside was my shoulder popped back into place, not sure you’d call it a silver lining scenario though. 🙁
10
Dear All.
I have been informed by email that our dear host Jo has been recovering from a hat-trick of illnesses and injuries today. Her typing hand has been injured in two different ways. This came on the back of a fever. Those who’ve been missing Jo’s presence in this forum over the last two days, now you know why. And it would seem moderation will be temporarily slower and more sporadic than the normally high standard we have come to enjoy.
I’m sure most folks here will wish Jo a speedy recovery, as do I.
Indeed, with enough well wishes from her highly international audience I’m sure she can experience a global warming of the nicest variety. (nyuk nyuk)
30
Eh, well her message wasn’t on the page when I started typing that comment.
10
Sorry Andrew, Your email prompted me to write that comment. Thanks, J
10
A couple of hours ago I commenced year 74, but so far it is not going well. Nor is the predictive spelling on this dumb tablet. My side of the electric blanket broke at 2 am yesterday, despite Colleen’s side being vacant again in favour of hospital. She is now below half my mass, so on semi-sleep lonely nights I compose algorithms to project when the next blanket will fail. We are on blanket number 5 replacement this year, always my side, so the input data is diverse for the forecast of future temperatures. Then I wake myself shouting that the algorithms are wrong, but there is nobody to hear my confession that I fail at p redicting temperature.
It is a version of ‘If a Man saw a tree fall in a forest and heard its noise, would his Woman still argue that he was wrong?
The bed is one I restored after purchase from a Steptoe shop in Mount Morgan. The white paint had been overpainted with black, so this would affect internal temperatures in the way Anhony reported on WUWT for fading Stevenson screens. The brass had been chrome plated, making it light reflective, but bing a chemist, I soon stripped it off. Indeed, in those days frequent stripping often elevated tempertures again and again. Under one of the 83 brass pieces I found the date 1896 stamped in the steel frame, but of course I reject ant dates before 1910 when the temperatures suddenly became correct for BoM purposes.
My main career employer mined gold and copper at Mt Morgan for some years in the 1970_90 period. It was pleasant on visits to read the old Annual Reports in the library of the directors’ quarters. One learned that the wealth of the mine allowed one Mr W K D’Arcy to drill impossibly many holes in the Persian desert until he struck the oil that led to BP being formed. Also, one of my managers lived in the former home of Walter and Eliza Hall, whose funding of medical research led to an Instiute of world fame, one bthat has saved many lives.
Yet some many people are taught to hate mining, for reasons that seem illogical when you know a bit about it.
Get sell soon, Jo.
Just sayin’
Geoff
30
Best wishes for Colleen Geoff. Thinking of you. — Jo
20
Yes indeed. I’ve given up trying to understand the “hate mining” mindset, especially when espoused by people cocooned in its’ various products
And I share your anguish over your wife’s situation. I’ve experienced the full panoply of it a short while back (I’m within a year of your age)
20
Jo
I am glad to hear you are feeling better 😀
10
Watts is running this new paper, Baker et al out of UNSW, which confirms once again what we already know. The NAO was in positive mode during the MWP, coupled nicely with the Atlantic conveyor to bring warmth to Europe.
http://www.nature.com/srep/2015/150611/srep10307/full/srep10307.html
00
jo – so sorry to hear about your health woes, etc. hope you are on the mend now.
no transcript as yet, and i didn’t see the program (had stuff to do), but compare ABC’s sources for The End of Coal? with the links posted above. (guess no-one managed to send the links to the ABC Board. i may get around to that once i have seen the transcript, though i would love someone with more expertise than me – like TonyfromOz – to do it as he might get a response from ABC):
15 June: ABC Four Corners: The End of Coal?
(CLICK ON “BACKGROUND INFORMATION” AT BOTTOM OF SUMMARY)
MEDIA – INCLUDES MUCH ABC, GUARDIAN & FAIRFAX PLUS THE CONVERSATION PLUS A SMATTERING OF MURDOCH & OTHER MSM SOURCES WHEN IT SUITS, SUCH AS:
Coal miners cut output as prices fall | The Daily Telegraph | 3 June, 2015
Port Augusta power stations and Leigh Creek coal mine expected to close by 2018, costing about 440 jobs | The Australian | 11 June, 2015
RESEARCH AND RELATED WEBSITES includes:
Rockefeller Brothers Fund
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
CFMEU
Asset Owners Disclosure Project
RenewEconomy
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2015/06/15/4253096.htm
in other words, nothing the ABC isn’t pumping out daily.
00
right on cue!
16 June: ABC The Drum: John Connor: Voters are backing solar power – will we get the policies to match?
A new Lowy poll shows solar power’s appeal is broad among Australians, and it’s clear there is much to be done to reduce emissions. The challenge now is for our governments to act, writes John Connor.
Last week I stood in a field of more than a million photovoltaic solar modules and felt like I was touching the future. Erected within 18 months at the Nyngan Solar Farm, this utility scale solar power plant can power more than 50,000 homes. Many more of these can and should be built…
Wind power’s appeal is broad too. Last year polling for The Climate Institute showed 64 per cent of Australians had wind in their top three energy sources. Solar was in the top three of 82 per cent (15 per cent had coal). Indeed, more than three quarters of Australians wanted governments to do more for renewable energy “like wind farms”. With their enigmatic mix of a sleek industrial aesthetic and a primal connection to a natural resource that is also free, wind farms are a crossover technology that inspires many. And infuriates some…
The latest Lowy poll also confirmed a trend our own polling has shown of a rebound in support for action on climate change, ***”even if this involves significant costs”. Support is back to levels not seen since 2009.
After the toxic carbon politics of the last few years it is easy to forget that in early 2009 there was bipartisan support for ***emissions trading that made big polluters begin to take responsibility for their emissions…
Yesterday, the International Energy Agency essentially backed the vision of Australians. Avoiding two degrees warming would see a world with more renewable energy than coal fired energy by 2030…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-16/connor-voters-are-backing-solar-power/6548438
Australians fear 10 more years of terror, finds I-view poll
The Australian-10 hours ago
Solar energy was rated by 43 per cent as Australia’s likely primary power source in 10 years, followed by coal with just 17 per cent
Rumoured death of coal mining greatly premature
The Australian-10 hours ago
Renewable energy a big punt: Nats senator
The Australian (blog)-13 hours ago
Mr Abbott has previously declared coal “good for humanity
00
Reuters & Daily Mail, plus Russian MSM the only ones reporting this story so far! wonder why?
15 June: Reuters: Big Oil saving Putin top investor show again
by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Katya Golubkova
Some of the world’s most powerful oil executives will attend Russia’s top investment show next week, once again helping the organizers shrug off a meager turnout from other leading Western industrialists and bankers…
However, for the second year running, oil executives are showing up regardless, with the heads of BP, Royal Dutch Shell and Total flying into the home town of President Vladimir Putin.
BP’s review of world energy supplies, published this month, estimated that Russian oil and gas reserves had jumped above 100 billion barrels for the first time, climbing to some 103 billion from 93 billion in the last review in 2013. This put it sixth in the global reserves league table.
Such an abundance makes it economically vital for major energy firms to maintain healthy ties with Moscow…
“Uncertainty is the rule of the game in this industry,” the head of France’s Total Patrick Pouyanne said this month. “We are in the long-term business. This is why at Total we are keen to maintain our commitment to Russia.”
Pouyanne and BP’s boss Bob Dudley will be speaking at a panel with Putin’s energy tsar, the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin. Shell’s CEO Ben Van Beurden will share the stage on Thursday with the head of Gazprom Alexei Miller.
All of them will likely have a separate meeting with Putin and will generally be much more visible than last year when they preferred to stay on the sidelines…
Western energy bosses have a lot at stake in Russia, with assets ranging from Shell’s giant gas plant on the far eastern island of Sakhalin to BP’s 20 percent stake in Rosneft, responsible for a third of its global production…
But onshore developments are still allowed and BP is looking to expand its portfolio in Russia by buying a stake in an east Siberian oil field from Rosneft for as much as $800 million.
Shell’s van Beurden said this month the company would be keen to boost capacity of the $20 billion Sakhalin plant by a third while Total is seeking ways to unlock investments into the $30 billion Yamal gas plant…
Executives from giant oil trading houses Glencore, Vitol, Gunvor and Trafigura will also travel to Russia as Rosneft is looking for ways to boost its funding options via oil sales deals.
Last year, Putin challenged the Western sanctions by striking a long awaited gas supply deal just before the forum between Kremlin’s energy champion Gazprom and China, valued at $400 billion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/15/us-russia-forum-oil-idUSKBN0OU0RW20150615
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In the middle of the Dalton Minimum the largest volcanic eruption in 1300 years had a devastating effect on agriculture.
‘According to a 2012 analysis by Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature, the 1815 Tambora eruption caused a temporary drop in the Earth’s average land temperature of about 1 °C. Smaller temperature drops were recorded from the 1812-1814 eruptions.’ wiki
Importantly a quiet sun was already causing mayhem before that massive event.
1779-80 coldest winter in Edinburgh on record.
1783 to 1786 two winters saw the Thames frozen solid, along with 1788-89, due primarily to a high pressure established over Greenland and Scandinavia.
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Next weekend’s “Unravelled”? 😛
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facts and figures mean nothing to CAGW ideologues. Denniss, didn’t you read Vidal/Guardian report that Britain, Germany, Italy, Japan and France burned more coal between 2009 and 2013 and demanded poor countries slash their carbon emissions?
15 June: AFR: Richard Denniss: Abbott blind to coal’s decline
Conservative leaders around the world are working hard to position themselves on the right side of the climate debate. Angela Merkel has taken a strong stance on the need to rapidly reduce Germany’s emissions and just last week the G7 agreed to decarbonise their economies. In the UK the newly elected Cameron government moved instantly to position itself, and the issue of climate change, in the political centre.
London’s Tory Mayor Boris Johnson’s support for bikes, public transport and electric cars places him closer to Clover Moore than Tony Abbott on the climate policy spectrum.
But as the world’s powers prepare for this year’s climate talks in Paris, and as China’s investment in renewable energy continues to grow rapidly, Tony Abbott chose last week to remind us that he thinks wind turbines are an ugly blight on the landscape…
Of course not all Liberal leaders see renewable energy through the prism of Tony Abbott’s culture war…
Our Prime Minster thinks the markets are wrong about the prospects for coal and that the electorate are wrong about their support for renewables. Conservative leaders around the world are racing in the opposite direction…
http://www.afr.com/opinion/columns/abbott-blind-to-coals-decline-20150615-gho0cu?
Harrabin, this article is so contradictory, beginning with the headline. after all, the CAGW-infested MSM never stops giving China exaggerated credit for “renewables”:
16 June: BBC: Roger Harrabin: China ‘deserves more credit’ for renewable energy effort
China should be given more credit for its investment in clean electricity, the head of the International Energy Agency says.
Maria van der Hoeven says most people think that China is frantically building coal-fired power stations.
The reality, she says, is that China is spending as much as the US and Europe put together on clean power.
She says its coal-fired power stations are state of the art – and should be copied in other developing countries…
The country is also building 50 new nuclear power stations and creating economies of scale in nuclear too, the IEA says, at a time when the industry is moribund in Europe…
***Last year the nation reported that its emissions had fallen by 1% as coal use slumped…
Ms van der Hoeven said China was still investing heavily in coal-fired power plants, but that the power stations were highly efficient and enabled old inefficient plants to be retired…
But despite its admiration for China’s achievement, the IEA is still critical of what it says is the nation’s lack of transparency on data.
And it says that because of China’s vast size and its growing wealth, the country’s emissions are expected by 2030 to be two and a half times higher than the next bigger emitter, the US.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-33143176
***Harrabin, go check the revised China figures in the BP report.
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Just found something interesting. If you just put a regular math expression into Google search it will plot an output of that formula —
Just put
¯
4/pi(sin(x)+sin(3x)/3+sin(5x)/5+sin(7x)/7+sin(9x)/9+sin(11x)/11)
¯
into google and see it plot the outcome.
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You’ve uncovered a plot!
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‘Member of Parliament David Davies has warned of the stubborn nature of organisations like Britain’s Royal Society – the oldest grouping of eminent scientists in the world – who have admitted that they will not accept any other thinking on global warming for at least “fifty years”, even if the data shows otherwise.’
Oliver lane / Breitbart
When pressed on the timing they said it will be 50 years from today.
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