Please, sell us your low lying land
Let’s play sea level bingo with the latest advertising from the Merchants of Sea-level Scares.
Hitting the media outlets tonight — the latest “Prepare to Die” news stories claim we must plan now for evacuees, refugees, inundation and homeless koalas. All the usual features of marketing are there — firstly all the images they use are from mocked up futuristic sea level rise. Secondly, it’s not a continuation of current trends, it a sudden acceleration — in this case from 1mm to year to 9mm a year, effectively starting tomorrow.
1 tiny millimeter
By every method known to man, seas are rising around 1mm a year:
- 1,000 tide gauges,
- hundreds of studies of beaches,
- satellites measuring sea levels, and
- satellites measuring beaches.
All anyone needs to know about sea levels is that for the last 50 years sea levels have been rising at 1mm a year as shown by a thousand tide gauges all over the world. There was no acceleration. (Beenstock et al). Some of those gauges were rising, some falling, but when averaged out, it’s almost a wash at 1mm. Nils-Axel Morner took the opposite approach and studied 50 beaches around Scandinavia intensely, figured out which beach was at the centre of the turning crust and calculated that the seas were only rising at 0.9mm a year and for the last 125 years. (Morner, 2014).
Believe it or not, that fits with what the satellites used to say too (Morner 2004). From 1992 – 2000 the satellites recorded a rise of less than 1mm a year, but by 2003 that trend was retrospectively “adjusted” up to 2.3mm/year. As far as Morner can figure out, the satellites were calibrated to one sinking tide gauge in Hong Kong.
Satellites are now tracking every 20m rolling sandspit above the seas — and if seas were rising the beaches would surely be shrinking. Instead of 709 islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans 89% either stayed the same or got bigger. (Duvat, 2018). Not one island large enough to have human inhabitants was getting smaller. Not one.
Most of man made warming is made by adjustments
We don’t need sea walls to stop the rise, just an independent science audit.
A lot of the rise here is just the El Nino effect of 1998 in any case.
Sea levels have been rising for 2 centuries – the rate hasn’t changed
As far as the eye can see, it has nothing to do with CO2. Fully 85% or more of all our human emissions of CO2 have been produced since World War II and nothing changed.
There are large natural forces in here that are not well understood — look at the way the rate of change of sea level has rolled in cycles in the last 200 years.
Scream and run soon say the ABC
As usual, Nik Kilvert of the ABC doesn’t do any research or ask any hard questions. He’s just a distant part of the Science propaganda unit. The gloom and doom is based on highly adjusted data being fed into junk models and extrapolated beyond the error bars, but don’t expect Nik to report that. Truly terrible science needs truly terrible journalism to live on long enough to get the next grant.
Nik Kilvert, ABC
From Bangladesh to the Philippines and the low-lying islands of the South Pacific, the impacts of climate change for many people around the world are going to get much worse, very soon.
Some people will become stateless, and will need to find homes in new countries, while others will need to relocate within their own borders.
Researchers writing in Science today argue that it’s time to begin preparing the retreat of people living in regions that will become uninhabitable due to climate change.
Average global sea level will rise by up to 77 centimetres by the end of the century if warming is kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to IPCC predictions.
Extreme weather events, saltwater incursion and bushfires are also expected to displace people in the near future.
etc, etc, etc
Trust the ABC to throw a bushfire scare into a sea level story.
Small changes in sea-level rise,
Should not come as any surprise,
But a reading adjusted,
Can’t really be trusted,
As it’s not what the reading implies.
Sea levels are always changing and past changes were often larger.
- Past changes were larger in the Maldives (Mörner, 2007); In Connecticut (van de Plassche, 2000),; SW Sweden – Kattegatt Sea region (Mörner, 1971, 1980); In the Kattegatt and the Baltic (Åse, 1970; Mörner, 1980, 1999; Ambrosiani, 1984; Hansen et al., 2012). Other sites (e.g. Pirazzoli, 1991). [See the link above for the full references].
- White et al showed seas around Australia were rising at about the same speed during the depression era as they are now.
Other posts on Sea Levels
- Sea level rise less than 1mm for last 125 years in Kattegatt, Europe — Nils-Axel Morner
- Are sea-levels rising? Nils-Axel Mörner documents a decided lack of rising seas
- Global sea level rise a bit more than 1mm a year for last 50 years, no acceleration
- Sea level rise slowed from 2004 – Deceleration, not acceleration as CO2 rises.
- Man-made sea-level rises are due to global adjustments
- Australian sea levels have been falling for 7000 years
- Australian sea level rises exaggerated by 8 fold (or maybe ten)
- It wasn’t CO2: Global sea levels started rising before 1800
- Australian sea-levels respond to CO2 by slowing down…
- 10% of sea level rise is due to land rising too. Got that?
- South Pacific sea levels – Best records show little or no rise?!
- Mass carbon emissions, yet Australian sea levels rise at similar speed as 1920 – 1950
- Climate change creates free real estate in Tuvalu: “climate refugees” can all go home
- Rising sea-levels in the Indian Ocean due to man-made “adjustments” not CO2
- Kiribati sinking “like Titanic” but 59 million times slower
- Asian sea levels changed rapidly 6,000 years ago — natural sea level rise “unprecedented”
Duvat, V. K. E. (2018). A global assessment of atoll island planform changes over the past decades. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, e557. doi:10.1002/wcc.557
Michael Beenstock, Daniel Felsenstein,*Eyal Frank & Yaniv Reingewertz, (2014) Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise, Environmental and Ecological Statistics, May 2014 [Abstract]
Morner. N.A. (2004) Estimating future sea level changes from past records, Global and Planetary Change 40 49–54 doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00097-3 [PDF]
Nils‐Axel Mörner (2014) Deriving the Eustatic Sea Level Component in the Kattaegatt Sea, Global Perspectives on Geography (GPG). American Society of Science and Engineering, Volume 2, 2014, www.as‐se.org/gpg
Jevrejeva, S., A. Grinsted, J. C. Moore, and S. Holgate (2006), Nonlinear trends and multiyear cycles in sea level records, J. Geophys. Res., 111,
Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. L. Woodworth (2008), Recent global sea level acceleration started over 200 years ago?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08715, doi:10.1029/2008GL033611. [PDF]