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Rising sea-levels in the Indian Ocean due to man-made “adjustments” not CO2

PMSML stands for Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, though there is nothing permanent about sea-level data — like all obedient climate change data, it’s subject to change fifty years later – and the adjustments are as large as the trends.

We’ve seen this pattern in so many places. Now Cliff Ollier and Albert Parker have shown it in the Indian Ocean looking at Aden in Yemen, and Mumbai in India (and other places, and other data). Kenneth Richard at No Tricks Zone goes through it at length. James Delingpole calls it TideGate. The New York Times says nothing (just like last time).

Parker and Ollier conclude that at Mumbai, apparently the sea levels were “perfectly stable over the 20th century”. At Aden, sea levels trends are rising at a pitifully small quarter of a millimeter a year during the twentieth century. (And that’s their upper estimate). The lower estimate is minus five hundreths of a millimeter a year.  Looking at other sites as well they estimate a rise of …”about zero mm/year” in the last five decades. zero.

This, they say, agrees with other things like… coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, and historical documentation. (But not so much with climate models). Across the world there are scores of scientists all looking at everyone else’s adjusted data and saying to themselves “my raw data doesn’t look right”.

Tide Gauge Hut in Aden

Tide Gauge Hut in Aden | Photo IOC Gloss

Suspicious adjustments?

Graph (a) below shows the segments of raw data from Mumbai tide gauges collected from 1878 – 2011. There is a breakpoint change in 1936 with a 677mm drop. But the red series ends in December, and the green series starts the following month in January. (We wish there was an overlap, but at least there is no gap). The red line trend goes slightly up, the green line goes slightly down. But add them together and thanks to the magic of unexplained modern adjustments, look at Graph (b)! The effect of CO2 is revealed!

Amazing what scientists can find these days. Especially ‘mazing how the ground under these gauges seems to be rising so that it hides the effects of climate change. A conspiracy, I tell you.

Sea Level Rise Mumbai adjusted, graph, 2017

Fig. 2 Mumbai tide gauge — Monthly average mean sea levels. a) raw data. (PSMSL 2017f). b) Revised local reference (RLR, adjusted) data.  (PSMSL 2017g)

Unlike the mainstream team Beenstock et al took the less conspiratorial approach and assumed that the land would be randomly subsiding and rising. Satellites confirmed that the placement of gauges was fairly random with respect to changing sea levels. Instead of trying to correct for that at each station individually, they just averaged the lot.  Beenstock estimated the trend in sea levels across a thousand gauges was just over one millimeter a year.

In Mumbai the PMSML team convert a small negative trend to a significant positive one:

 If we look at the metric raw data, we may notice that the trend 1878–1936 is a ? 0.60 mm/ year, while the trend 1937–1995 is largely negative, – 0.72 mm/year. Combining the two trends, one would expect over the longer time window 1878–1936 a small negative trend. In the RLR data, the small negative trend 1878–1995 is transformed in a ? 0.68 mm/year positive trend, that with the latest data 2005–2011 further increases to ? 0.80 mm/ year.

What is science without consistency — all the raw data adds up to the same message:

The tide gauge result of Aden is perfectly consistent not only with the tide gauge results for Karachi and Mumbai. It is also consistent with the multiple lines of evidence, tide gauges, coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, and historical documentation, for a stable sea level of about zero mm/year experienced over the last 50 years in all the key sites of the Indian Ocean (Morner 2007, 2010, 2014, 2015a, b, 2016a, b).

 If sea levels are really rising at 3mm a year as claimed by the IPCC fanclub, a lot of other data needs adjusting (give someone a grant):

Contrary to the adjusted data from tide gauges and the unreliable satellite altimeter data, properly examined data from tide gauges and other sources such as coastal morphology, stratigraphy, radiocarbon dating, archaeological remains, and historical documentation indicate a lack of any alarming sea-level rise in recent decades for all the Indian Ocean (Morner 2007, 2010, 2014, 2016a). All the key sites indicate a sea-level rise of about zero mm/year, at least over the last 50 years (Morner 2007, 2010, 2014, 2016a). Goa has changes in sea level almost identical to those obtained in the Maldives and in Bangladesh even over longer time windows. Mumbai and Visakhapatnam on opposite sides of the Deccan Plateau also suggest a virtually stable sea-level condition in the last 50 years. In Qatar, the coastal records indicate a long-term stability of the present coastal regime (Morner 2015a, b, 2016b).

The low trend also agrees pretty well with the old raw satellite data (before that got adjusted).

h/t  Ian B. Michael A.

 

A fast rising sea is a must.
For alarmists who tweak and adjust,
Making past records trend,
Like the hockey-stick bend,
Which skeptics worldwide do not trust.

– Ruairi

REFERENCES

Parker,A. and Ollier,C. (2017) Is the Sea Level Stable at Aden, Yemen? Earth Syst Environ 1: 18. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-017-0020-z

Michael Beenstock, Daniel Felsenstein,*Eyal Frank & Yaniv Reingewertz, (2014)  Tide gauge location and the measurement of global sea level rise,  Environmental and Ecological Statistics, May 2014 [Abstract]

Photo: OC/GLOSS/PERSGA/ISESCO TECHNICAL Mission to Red Sea TIDE GAUGE OPERATING AGENCIES

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131 comments to Rising sea-levels in the Indian Ocean due to man-made “adjustments” not CO2

  • #
    Bitter&twisted

    Why am I not surprised to see yet more [snip] climate “science” exposed?

    102

  • #
    MikeW

    The Global Warming of Doom hysteria about sea levels is total nonsense. At any location, the local sea level is dominated by land movements, not climate change. And worldwide, coastal land areas over the past 30 years have actually increased (e.g. from river silting and land uplift) more than they have decreased (e.g. from subsistence), as revealed from actual satellite observations. If global warming were a significant factor in local sea levels, the coastal land areas worldwide would be decreasing, not increasing.
    http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n9/full/nclimate3111.html
    https://www.deltares.nl/en/news/how-the-earth-has-changed-over-the-past-30-years/

    302

    • #
      Steve Keppel-Jones

      MikeW, good comment, but I think you mean “subsidence” rather than “subsistence” :) People subsist, land subsides, the dude abides :)

      210

    • #
      TdeF

      When you add the massive sideways movement of tectonic plates at 60mm per year and presumably up and down at junctions, there are much larger forces at work from land movements. Especially where the Indo Australian, Arabian and African plates meet near Aden and subduction occurs at these boundaries.

      230

      • #
        TdeF

        “Rates of subduction are typically in centimeters per year, with the average rate of convergence being approximately two to eight centimeters per year along most plate boundaries.” Clearly not only can this affect water levels directly, it affects land elevation locally. Many countries are still moving upwards after the last ice age. An obvious question is whether the breaks in the tide gauges were due to earthquake events.

        The devastating line tsunami from Aceh was due to a drop in the sea bed along a 1,000km ridge. In fact “As far away as Sri Lanka, a thousand miles from the epicenter, the ground moved up and down by more than 3.6 inches (9 centimeters).”. I can only assume scientists allow for these massive events, somehow. This tsunami, rather than having a centre and decreasing in intensity with the square distance was a line wave and drowned people on the coast of Africa. Are we to believe tide gauges, even tide gauge buildings and foundations were not affected?

        221

      • #
        Duster

        The results of the processes of tectonic activity include both subduction and mountain building. Also, where one plate slides under another, the process is far from frictionless and there are signs of bending and warping parallel to the subduction front. The recent earthquake in Japan and the accompanying tsunami, which was eclipsed in the world’s attention by the largely harmless Fukushima “nuclear disaster,” include local subsidence of up to 1.20 meters, and accompanying horizontal shifts of up to 5.3 m to the ESE. The quake was the result of a strong upward buckling correction. The Pacific plat had been pushing the eastern edge of the plate carrying Japan westward. The resistance toward further deformation finally overcame friction and pushed the eastern edge of the overriding plate back eastward. Any location along a subduction zone on the side of the zone opposite the plate being subducted will undergo upward bucking, and strong earthquakes.

        31

    • #
      Geoff

      We combat virtual drowning with real corruption.

      121

    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      Your logic is wrong. Land uplifting and subduction are likely to cancel each other out on average. Ditto land erosion and silting.

      The global mean sea level is measured using a satellite baseline. The general trend is up, some flat bits and drops are caused when it rains a lot over a large area, but that water finds its way back into the sea eventually.

      28

      • #
        Murray Shaw

        Yeh, Harry, any mention of the 360,000 submarine volcanic vents creating mountains undersea and in some cases rising up to become new islands. Has anyone included this phenomena in their calculations. Reckon it is a major factor in SLR.

        Myself I turn to the Stockholm Institute and Nils Axel-Morner and their base on the Maldives for the real data!

        42

        • #
          Harry Twinotter

          Work it out, then. It will make for an interesting discussion.

          But you will have to explain why it is happening now, just in time to match AGW.

          I calculate the sea level should have risen around 70 metres since the start of the Christian Era, using the assumption of natural factors to explain current sea level rise.

          23

          • #
            Rereke Whakaaro

            … explain why it is happening now, just in time to match AGW

            Correlation does not prove causation. The onus of proof is on you, Harry. You can’t even prove that AGW is real, without resorting to the use of logical fallacies.

            There is nothing for Murray to explain. Those volcanoes have been there for aeons, and they don’t vent CO2 in a regular and predictable fashion. But all active volcanoes do vent CO2, periodically. It is up to you to present the evidence that the CO2 from anthropogenic sources far outweighs the impacts of those 360,000 volcano’s that Murray mentions.

            My hypothesis is that those volcanoes will be active, from time to time, in an irregular fashion. It is the “signal noise”, from that irregularity, that the climate change worriers point to, claiming (without evidence) that it is all man-made.

            73

            • #
              Harry Twinotter

              “Correlation does not prove causation”

              But you have to admit it is one heck of a smoking gun. I am sure if there was NO correlation it would used as evidence against AGW Theory – you cannot have it both ways.

              “You can’t even prove that AGW is real”

              Correct, I can’t because I am not technically qualified in that area of science. But the climate scientists sure can prove it, and they do. I refer you to the IPCC AR5 reports, they even break it down and say how confident they are about the evidence.

              I am glad you brought up the subject of evidence. Where is the evidence that new volcanoes cause SLR? The burden of evidence is on the one making the claim after all.

              13

              • #
                Rereke Whakaaro

                Harry,

                You are priceless. You try to justify one logical fallacy by using an appeal to authority, which is another logical fallacy.

                Now you say, “… the climate scientists sure can prove it, and they do.”, and then you refer me to the IPCC AR5 report?

                Harry, the IPCC is a United Nations body, and is therefore political*. The AR5 reports, and all of the climate reports that preceded it, are political documents. They are not scientific papers, in the academic sense.

                They have no credence in academia other than, perhaps, Political Science. The majority of credible Atmospheric Physicists, Climatologists, and Meteorologists, see them as an embarrassment, at worst, and a joke, at best.

                To claim “scientific proof”, the climate scientists must be able to produce all of their workings, and calculations, to anybody who asks for them, and in a form that can be, analysed, duplicated, and therefore verified. The climate scientists have always refused to do that. What, do you suppose, are they trying to hide?

                * You do realise, I hope, that the United Nations is a political body, set up after the Second World War, to talk about political issues; resolve political disputes between nations; and thus reduce the likelihood of a nuclear war breaking out. That is it’s mandate. It is not a world government, and it has no direct authority over any its members states. Chairman Mao called it, “A paper tiger”. It’s reports are political documents, and have little, or no, scientific merit.

                62

              • #
                AndyG55

                “But you have to admit it is one heck of a smoking gun”

                Only is a FANTASY world

                The correlation was for only 22 years..

                cooling from 1940-1970

                No warming from 1980 – 1997

                No warming from 2001 – 2015

                It is a NON-correlation.. and that is the real smoking gun

                You continue to show everyone just how lacking you are in any sort of understanding of anything to do with science or maths or climate… or anything.

                Please feel free to provide some empirical evidence that CO2 causes warming in our convectively controlled atmosphere.

                Or remain.. as always.. and EMPTY SACK.

                62

              • #
                Harry Twinotter

                Rereke.

                Like I have said before. I present scientific evidence, and it just gets denied. With a little conspiratorial ideation throw in in your case.

                You do not actually address my points, so I will assume you accept them.

                Now an interesting discussion would be to actually discuss the evidence instead of just denying it.

                “Appeal to authority” eh? I can tell straight away you do not know what that means (or are pretending you do not know what it means). The IPCC presents it’s evidence, so it is not an appeal to authority. I really do get the feeling you have not read the IPCC AR5 report.

                You just make claim after claim after claim without providing any evidence of your own. This is a diversionary tactic known as a “Gish Gallop”.

                12

          • #
            AndyG55

            “I calculate the sea level should have risen around 70 metres ”

            So, as always.. you were WRONG

            I would not put 1 cent on your understanding of maths… or anything for that matter.

            42

      • #
        AndyG55

        “are likely to cancel each other out on average”

        RUBBISH..

        There is absolutely no reason to make such an UNFOUNDED assumption.

        63

      • #
        gnomish

        the chart shows that MSL increased from 3000mm to 7000mm overnight?

        22

  • #
    Tom Anderson

    On the much brighter side, here are some very encouraging graphs from Anthony Watts’s page:

    https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/12/08/some-of-the-most-encouraging-graphs-about-the-human-condition-youll-ever-see/

    112

    • #
      Lionell Griffith

      Oh no! It is the worst possible thing that could have happened. Things are getting better and better – markedly so. All with a very high inverse correlation to the increase in CO2. Just think of the suffering the doom and gloom and catastrophic climate change crowd will feel just because of it. They are only happy when everyone is miserable and things are getting worse.

      I can hear them saying: “Just you wait, things will get worse. Then you will be sorry. We will get a chance to tell you I told you so. You won’t be so smug then.”

      Perhaps it is not all that bad for them. After all, they haven’t yet had a chance to correct the data. When they do, the reports will show that things are getting worse at an increasing rate. Thank goodness for their skill at making the data match their theories or they would never know how it feels to be successful. Otherwise all they could ever experience is failure.

      Meanwhile back at the ranch, we ordinary folk keep on keeping on. We ignore their meaningless ranting and raving and get on with the business of living our lives. We stay out of other peoples lives and wish they would too.

      272

    • #
      TdeF

      Amazing drop in mortality from all causes from 1900 onwards, the industrial revolution, despite the increase in world population of 4.5:1. The world is a much better place, thanks to industry and cheap coal energy. Yet people want to go back to a world of poverty, starvation and windmills. Why? Can people even imagine a world without the smart phone, universally powered by coal.

      192

      • #
        Scott

        I still dont understand why everyone labels these people progressives the title should be regressives.

        182

      • #
        King Geo

        “Can people even imagine a world without the smart phone, universally powered by coal”.

        NO it seems. But there is some good news. Did you watch Trump’s “Make America Great Again” speech delivered in Pensacola, Florida Friday arvo – 75 minute inspirational speech. I watched it on Foxtel earlier today (channel 604). And here in Oz we have Turnbull and maybe soon Shorten – I am beginning to feel ill. You see as the USA Economy continues to go gangbusters here in oz inept leadership will see the reverse happening – this country is now becoming like the dysfunctional EU – obsessed with “leftie socialist doctrine”.

        182

      • #
        Manfred

        Yet people want to go back to a world of poverty, starvation and windmills.

        No they absolutely don’t. Not when they truly realise taste, feel and pay for the privilege of being the NWO serfs. The globalist eco-marxist elite bank on the majority being easily satisfied and replete, enslaved by the secular consumerist nightmare, victims in debt fragile and dependent on the stability of the financial markets for their survival. As Scott 3.2.1 says, always refer to them as Regressives. There is nothing in the least bit ‘Progressive’ or liberal in the classical liberal tradition that wrote that finest of documents, the American Declaration of Independence. The co-opting of these words is Alinsky in action. It is seen elsewhere, the UN and UNEP for example – ‘climate change’, ‘civil society’, ‘divestment’ for example.

        IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776
        The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

        When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

        We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. …

        82

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        I was asked by one of my sociology lecturers, way back in the day, to determine what the primary occupation was, for young women in Georgian London, and the other major centres in England.

        After a fair bit of research, the best I could come up with was “seamstress”.

        I was wrong. The occupation that outnumbered all others, three to one, was “prostitute”.

        Only the elite received an education. and only those with an education could get gainful employment, in respectable society.

        I thought the lecturer was nuts; until, several years later, I observed the divide in living standards, between the elite and the plebeians in second and third world countries, for myself.

        Those of us who are lucky enough to live in the first world, may play with our games of power, but the human costs of winning or losing, are frighteningly high.

        192

  • #
    Extreme Hiatus

    Absolutely diabolical! Looks like skeptics have been faking tide gauge readings since 1871.

    182

  • #
    Manfred

    In this post-modern age of precautionary scientivism the subjective perception is all that has validity. Gender is a choice based on ‘feeling’. Sea levels appear to be prescribed by ‘settled politics’.

    Biased Tide Gauges Mean We’ve Been Systematically Underestimating Sea Level Rise

    [Phil Thompson, an oceanographer at the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa] says the result suggests climate models might not be calibrated correctly, which raises questions about their predictions for future sea level rise. “This is not a feel-good moment. Showing that it is rising faster is not a good answer,” he says. “That indicates that our oceans are even more sensitive to climate change than we previously thought.”

    The good news is, now that scientists are aware of this source of bias, they can take it into account in future climate models, Thompson says. The bad news is sea level rise may be happening more quickly than scientists thought.

    In empirical reality, ‘Tide turns on sea-level alarmists

    AUSTRALIA is lucky to possess the high-quality, 128-year-long tide gauge record from Fort Denison (Sydney Harbour), which since 1886 indicates a long-term rate of sea-level rise of 0.65mm a year, or 6.5cm a century.

    Lucky, because 60-year-long oceanographic atmospheric oscillations mean a true long-term measurement of sea-level rise can be made only when such a record is available.

    For example, measurements at Sydney between 2005 and 2014 show the tide gauge site is sinking at a rate of 0.49mm/yr, leaving just 0.16mm/yr of the overall relative rise as representing global sea-level change. Indeed, the rate of rise at Fort Denison, and globally, has been decreasing for the past 50 years.

    Sea-level alarmism has passed high tide and is at last declining. With luck, empirical sanity will soon prevail over modelling.

    As has been frequently stated here, were the traitorous Fourth Estate willing and capable of adhering to the Canons of Journalism and perform their duty rigorously and ethically, the ‘settled politics’ would be extinguished throughout the World in a matter of days and weeks. The web of funded lies and adjustments would dissolve. The UNEP divestment programme replete with its array of institutional virtue signalling hangers-on would ‘feel’ as foolish as it looks, local councils would collapse, governments national and state would change. We could then return to a future aimed at prosperity, redolent with hope and resplendent with liberty … and it could happen very quickly.

    294

    • #
      el gordo

      Agree, the Fourth Estate has no teeth and the continuing propaganda is surely a precursor to its eventual demise.

      ‘…. it could happen very quickly.’

      For that to happen we would need an extreme change in the weather, an unmistakable global cooling signal, otherwise the big lie will continue.

      152

      • #
        Manfred

        Consider, if social media where uncensored, all State broadcasters TV and Radio Worldwide returned to acerbic critical analysis, all the press returned to the Canons of Journalism, the eco-Marxist Globalists would instantly be in a combo of free-fall and out of control on a skid pan. There would literally be no-one to sell the talk and consequently, no one would walk the walk. Scheisse, it would be a spectacular implosion, akin to watching the birth of a black hole.

        62

  • #
    Ruairi

    A fast rising sea is a must.
    For alarmists who tweak and adjust,
    Making past records trend,
    Like the hockey-stick bend,
    Which skeptics worldwide do not trust.

    390

    • #
      Andrew

      Sea level’s rising I hear
      And we’ll all be ruined, I fear
      Our cities all drowned
      ‘Less a cure is found
      Or fleeing 1mm a year

      220

      • #
        Peter C

        Excellent Andrew,

        Deserving of many more green ticks.

        50

      • #
        Ruairi

        Nice one Andrew.

        20

        • #
          The Deplorable Vlad the Impaler

          I’ve always liked George Carlin’s take on rising sea levels: [paraphrase] ‘Sea levels are rising at about (10 centimetres) per century; if you can’t outrun that, you deserve to drown!’

          Regards,

          Vlad

          12

          • #
            Harry Twinotter

            Vlad.

            I know you are just making a joke, but you actually make a good.

            Buildings and farms cannot outrun rising sea levels because buildings and farms can’t run.

            10

    • #
      PeterPetrum

      Oh! Ruairi – you’ve done it again!

      50

  • #
    robert rosicka

    they come up with junk like this yet scream denier when someone sees through their scam .

    173

    • #
      Another Ian

      RR

      FYI – highlighting an inadvertent own goal?

      A comment at SDA on the sledging of Susan Crockford with what seems to me an important point (my bold)

      I like reading about the history of science. Personal attacks, character assassinations and weaponized science is nothing new in science. What’s interesting is that the most viscious, even deadly, scientific controversies have strong political and religious components. When scientific theories involve power structures and money they get incredibly ugly. Heretics threatening the establishment must be eliminated. Whenever opposing scientists are threatened with professional exile, jail or death, you’ve got religion and politics not science. It’s also interesting to look at who ends up being correct.

      I found it amusing that the paper attacking Crockford chastises her for not doing field work. Climate science future forecasting, especially CAGW, is unverifiable models all the way down. It’s basically Advanced Augury for political scientist but with more uncertainties and fudge factors than reading sheep entrails.”

      http://www.smalldeadanimals.com/2017/12/the-sound-of-we.html#comment-1140966

      And the comment below that

      ” It’s basically Advanced Augury for political scientist but with more uncertainties and fudge factors than reading sheep entrails.”

      When in doubt, go with the sheep.
      They are difficult to edit, or “adjust”….. “

      133

      • #
        OriginalSteve

        True, however occasionally those responsible for the thuggery need a hard virtual punch in the nose to back them off.

        Bullies need to be stood up to, or you have dystopia….

        If we do nothing, we consent to them having their way with us, which equates to a form of depraved slavery. Unless we want multiple generations of slaves and not being able to look our children in the eye lest they accuse us of cowardice under fire and not protecting their futures, its time to fight back.

        51

  • #
    manalive

    My understanding is that tidal gauges and satellite altimetry measure different things.
    On the time scale of available reliable data, tidal gauges measure any change in the volume of water mainly due to change in the volume of grounded glacier etc. while the satellite altimetry supposedly also measures density change due to temperature etc., density change does not affect the sea level at the coastline.

    40

    • #

      The raw satellite data in the 1990s agreed with the thousand odd tide gauges. Then in 2003 the satellite data was adjusted up to 2.3mm year. Following the paper trail, it appears the satellite data was calibrated to one sinking tide gauge in Hong Kong. Morner is the man with the details. http://joannenova.com.au/2012/12/are-sea-levels-rising-nils-axel-morner-documents-a-decided-lack-of-rising-seas/

      123

      • #
        manalive

        I remember reading that post Jo.
        Prof Humlum @ climate4you suggests the difference between the tidal gauge and satellite data could be due to the latter measuring density-derived volume change of the top layer of the open oceans due to temperature expansion.
        He also notes the satellite data ‘adjustments’.
        Anyway, as with the surface GT trend vs the satellite GT trend which also seem to be diverging, it will be interesting to see if and how the gaps widen in future.

        40

    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      “My understanding is that tidal gauges and satellite altimetry measure different things.”

      Correct. Tidal gauges only measure a small amount of sea level compared to the satellites.

      26

      • #
        manalive

        And it is only that small amount at coasts that is relevant to human settlements.

        21

      • #
        AndyG55

        Tide gauges are not open to unjustified adjustments, either.

        A LOT of the satellite sea level trend is from unwarranted adjustments, which started around 2003

        https://s19.postimg.org/p42wgwtir/comparison.jpg

        No acceleration of sea level rise = NO CO2 signal in tide record.

        22

      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        I wish I had ten bucks, for every tidal gauge that I have seen, bolted onto a wharf pile, that was slowly sinking into the ooze, of the harbour.

        Tidal gauges are there, for the sole purpose of measuring the relative distance between the water level and the top of the wharf.

        So you are correct Harry, But for entirely the wrong reason.

        01

  • #
    tom0mason

    Adjustments to raw measurement data does not make some kind of new and improved data, it manufactures an ‘adjusted product’, a bunch of statistics that are no longer the actual measured data.
    When the raw data is adjusted the product should include explanations of what, why, and how the raw data was changed. Anything less is not science.

    183

    • #
      TedM

      The product should also include the raw data for comparison.

      233

    • #
      Rereke Whakaaro

      No, no, you are missing the point.

      Let me give you an example: If I look at my watch, and find that it is showing the wrong time, then I adjust it, so it becomes correct.

      The same concept applies with thermometers and tide gauges. If they consistently show incorrect values, they need recalibrating.

      Of course, the degree of recalibration required, must be taken into account, when considering all previous readings as well. This is not an easy task, especially when it comes to considering something as dynamic as the climate. It requires the attention of highly trained experts and specialists, with the skills to determine historic realities.

      62

    • #
      ivan

      tom, you are missing the point.

      We are now living in the age of the ‘new science’ as dictated by the church of climatology whence every bit of data must be brought screaming and kicking into alignment with the writings of the book of IPCC – anything else is heresy.

      43

  • #
    el gordo

    When a mini ice age begins, sea level should stabilise and not fall.

    ‘According to our analysis, North Carolina sea level was stable from BC 100 to AD 950. Sea level rose at a rate of 0.6 mm/y from about AD 950 to 1400 as a consequence of Medieval warmth, although there is a difference in timing when compared to other proxy sea-level records. North Carolina and other records show sea level was stable from AD 1400 until the end of the 19th century due to cooler temperatures associated with the Little Ice Age. A second increase in the rate of sea-level rise occurred around AD 1880–1920; in North Carolina the mean rate of rise was 2.1 mm/y in response to 20th century warming. This historical rate of rise was greater than any other persistent, century-scale trend during the past 2100 y.’

    Andrew Kemp et al 2011

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    • #
      tom0mason

      el gordo

      Although in some localities the sea may appear to rise as the weight of the ice-sheet on the land exerts it’s persistent downward force.

      ‘TM et ale’ 2017.

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    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      You missed this part from the study abstract:

      “Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892. Using an extended semiempirical modeling approach, we show that these sea-level changes are consistent with global temperature for at least the past millennium.”

      27

      • #
        AndyG55

        So, absolutely ZERO CO2 effect.

        Thanks for clarifying that, twooter.

        “extended semiempirical modeling approach” roflmao..

        some measurements, some “adjustments”, some fabrication.

        42

        • #
          Rereke Whakaaro

          C’mon Andy … doing the “semiempirical” stuff is fun. Think of a number, plug it in, see what comes out.

          Does it come close to the result you expected?

          Well, repeat the above, until is does.

          In fact, you can automate the whole process, and go to the pub for lunch. Not a bad idea!

          31

      • #
        AndyG55

        “This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892″

        A NATURAL rise out of the COLDEST period in 10,000 years… thanks for the quotes :-)

        And thank goodness for that highly beneficial warming. :-)

        How’s your inner-city fossil-fuelled ghetto, going, twooter !

        TOTAL RELIANCE on CO2 for your very existence.

        32

  • #
    pat

    don’t tell me the CAGW prophets were wrong.

    “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is” – Dr David Viner, UEA

    8 Dec: Anchorage Daily News: Alaska just recorded one of the most extreme snowfall rates on record: 10 inches per hour
    by John Hopewell, The Washington Post
    Imagine going into a movie theater to check out the latest science fiction flick and there is not a single flake of snow on the ground. A couple hours later, as the credits start to roll, you mosey outside and are stunned to find your car buried in more than a foot of snow.
    Perhaps you’d wonder if you were still watching a movie.

    Well that’s kind of what happened Wednesday at Alaska’s Thompson Pass, outside of the town of Valdez, when an incredible 10 inches of snow piled up in one hour – around 1.7 inches every 10 minutes. This is an absolutely incredible snowfall rate.
    The furious storm dropped another 5 inches in 30 minutes, for a remarkable 15 inches in a brief hour and a half period. In the end, 40 inches of heavy wet snow accumulated in 12 hours…

    The Thompson Pass storm ranks among the most intense snowfalls that we know of, according to an analysis by Weather Underground’s weather historian, Christopher Burt…

    Valdez, with a population around 4,000, was cut off from the rest of the state when the only overland route in and out of town was buried in an avalanche. On Thursday, the Richardson Highway was sitting under 20 feet of snow…

    Valdez, sitting in a cove on the Prince William Sound, is considered the snowiest town in the United States, averaging a whopping 300 inches per year…
    https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2017/12/08/alaska-just-reported-one-of-the-most-extreme-snowfall-rates-on-record-10-inches-per-hour/

    8 Dec: San Jose Mercury News: AP: Snow from San Antonio to Atlanta: Winter just got real
    As a rare snowstorm sweeps across the South, one Mississippi city notched a snowfall record, and other cities aren’t far behind.
    National Weather Service officials say the 6 inches in Columbia — 90 miles north of New Orleans — is the city’s most snow ever in one day. Farther north, Meridian also had 6 inches, its third-heaviest snowfall, and Jackson had 5.1 inches, its sixth-heaviest.
    Utilities in Mississippi report nearly 80,000 customers without power, with outages concentrated around McComb and Hattiesburg.
    As the snow ends, a hard freeze is predicted deep into south Louisiana and south Mississippi Friday night, prompting warnings that roadways will freeze over.

    Other reports from the winter-blasted region…
    Texas: Rare snowfall across South Texas has knocked out power to thousands, caused numerous accidents along slick roadways and prompted the closure of schools…
    The temperatures early Friday dropped as low as 27 degrees in the Austin area…

    Louisiana: Louisiana utilities report nearly 100,000 customers without power, with outages concentrated around Baton Rouge, where snow was falling, and on the northern shore of Lake Pontchartrain.
    As snow flurries fell in New Orleans, police organized motorists in slow-moving convoys on the slick 24-mile causeway across Pontchartrain…ETC ETC
    http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/12/08/the-latest-snow-falling-in-parts-of-north-georgia/

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  • #
    pat

    8 Dec: DailyRecordScotland: Peter Davidson: Arctic bomb set to hit Scotland as Storm Caroline brings temperatures of -12C in 10 day cold snap
    Storm Caroline has already wrecked havoc across the country shutting schools, cancelling trains and leaving hundreds of homes without power…

    8 Dec: UK Mirror: UK weather: Live updates as heavy snow cuts power to homes with motorists warned ‘think twice before you travel’
    The roads have been plunged into chaos as yellow and amber weather warnings have been issued across the UK
    BySteve Robson, Kara O’Neill, Chris kitching & Jamie Bullen
    In Cumbria, several roads have been completely closed, which means commuters are struggling to get home for the weekend.
    An amber warning – meaning ‘danger to life’ – has been issued and snow has already been blamed for a number of crashes on Friday as police warn of unsafe conditions…

    PICS/VIDEO: 8 Dec: UK Express: Snow UK in pictures: Snow falls across UK and more is expected
    BRITONS were pictured sledging down hills and hiking across gorgeous snowy fields today, after snow showers blanketed huge swathes of the UK overnight. Here are the most stunning photographs.
    By Joe Tambini
    Arctic wind sucked in by the remnants of Storm Caroline have produced thick snow across huge swathes of the UK today (Friday December 8) and forecasters expect even more snowy showers over the weekend.

    The Met Office has issued yellow snow and ice warnings for Northern Ireland, Scotland and large parts of western England today, with heavy snowfall due to cover Britain for the next few days.
    A more severe amber warning has been issued for chunks of England and Wales on Sunday as the icy conditions drifts southwards.
    Beautiful photos from around the UK today show families out enjoying the wintery weather…
    Children were seen laughing as they sledged down white hills in Aviemore in the Scottish Highlands…
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/889890/Snow-UK-pictures-photos-images-forecast-met-office-latest

    8 Dec: UK Express: Snow forecast LIVE: Met Office just issued weather warning for HEAVY SNOW to cover UK
    SNOW is set to blanket huge swathes of the UK from today, with the Met Office issuing a serious amber snow warning for parts of England and Wales on Sunday. Here is the latest news and live updates as Britain braces for snow.
    By Sebastian Kettley
    An arctic blast is hitting Britain as temperatures plummet
    6pm: Penycae Christmas Market cancelled due to hazardous snowfall
    Some seven inches of snow blanketed a Christmas market in south Wales, forcing organisers to cancel the festive event…
    11.02am: Sunday’s snow forecast giving meteorologists a ‘headache’
    BBC Weather presenter Carol Kirkwood has revealed that there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to which parts of the UK will receive heavy snow on Sunday (December 10).
    “Sunday’s forecast giving us a headache,” she tweeted…
    “Currently we think the snow will be in Northern Ireland, Wales, just north of M4 corridor into the Midlands.”
    She stressed that the forecasts could easily change before Sunday…
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/889308/Snow-weather-UK-forecast-2017-Met-Office-weather-warning-Sunday-map

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    • #
      Glen Michel

      I seem to recall a massive fall in central Italy within the last 10 years. Heaviest documented snow fall .

      52

  • #

    Considering how chilly things got around 1700 it’s a relief we can show a bit of SLR since then. Keep the glaciers from my door and I’ll cop a few millimetres of extra water along the coast.

    But here’s the surprising thing: after you take into account post 1700 warming, post-glacial rebound (can go two ways), subsidence, erosion, siltation, coral growth, tectonics, Big Dries, Big Wets, circulation/current changes etc etc…

    It’s still hard for a seventy year old to find a skeric of change from the 1950s when he wanders down to Coogee Beach in 2017.

    SLR is the mother of all beat-ups. The Guardian-perusing classes really need to find another lame horse to flog. This one is totally dead.

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    • #
      bobl

      That says a lot coming from a septuagenarian:-

      Even if there was sea level rise people have been able to keep water contained since caveman days, eg by digging the occasional channel or building sea walls or levy banks. By moving a bits of dirt around we can defeat any sea level rise for millennia.

      The fear mongering around SLR is totally irrational given that a truck load of dirt fixes it for 300 years!

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      • #
        Rereke Whakaaro

        … a truck load of dirt fixes it for 300 years!

        That I could live with. It is the truck load of money, every year, to tell us where to stick the dirt, that gets my goat.

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      • #
        John F. Hultquist

        Just to be contrary, I will point out that many coastal areas are covered with structures of old and new civil engineering.
        One example is La Nouvelle-Orléans, that Americans call New Orleans. Started in 1718, it now has a population of about 400,000.

        Many years and millions of dollars now gone by.
        Still floods. Not that an inch or two of SLR will make a difference.

        52

        • #
          bobl

          Of course John we don’t mention that 2/3 of the pumps don’t work, they are so old the pumps run on 25 Hz, the Levies aren’t maintained and they insist on creating subsidence by pumping out groundwater. New Orleans could be flood protected if the state/federal government wanted to, but there wasn’t any will before Trump.

          I do hear that POTUS Trump is actually doing something to refit the pumping stations which will go a long way to drain an area that is in places 6 1/2 feet below sea level. Now frankly if china can build whole islands in the south china sea I’m sure that the good ‘ole USA could move some dirt and raise those low areas a few feet if it had the will.

          42

      • #
        Harry Twinotter

        bobl.

        That is going to be one long sea wall.

        33

        • #
          AndyG55

          At less than 2mm/year.. wow !!!

          and only in places like Di Craprio’s which are essentially at sea level already.

          32

    • #
      spangled drongo

      Moso, all you have to do to check the BS claim of SLR on the east coast of Australia is talk to any family who have been in the little ship maintenance business with slipways for a few generations, who would kill for a little SLR as it would improve the scope of their business.

      They will all tell you: “if only”.

      32

  • #
    Extreme Hiatus

    Maybe the Green Blob will sue whomever took those tidal gauge readings:

    http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/08/scientist-faces-criminal-charges-because-environmentalists-didnt-like-his-work/

    This is all good, assuming that there are still objective judges in the world.

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    • #
      Another Ian

      Just waiting for the Green B.L.O.B. to invent a glacier threatened by the Adani mine

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      • #
        Extreme Hiatus

        Too late. The Warming has already wiped out all the Australian glaciers. And shrunk the bears. Yet some people still do not heed the warnings!!!

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        • #
          el gordo

          That’s because the people have an inner sense that global cooling is fearsome.

          ‘Snow fell across parts of the Deep South early Friday, causing Southerners to panic and rush toward the grocery store even as forecasters predicted any accumulations would melt quickly. ‘

          CBS News

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      • #
        robert rosicka

        “Just waiting for the Green B.L.O.B. to invent a glacier threatened by the Adani mine”

        Well they’re trying to get people to believe that they are digging up the Reef for coal so nothing is off limits really and truth is never a problem for warmists .

        22

  • #
    el gordo

    There has been a rumour going around for many years that ‘subsidence’ has caused SLR in Newcastle, Adelaide and Fremantle.

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  • #
    pat

    8 Dec: Reuters: By Valerie Volcovici: U.S. EPA chief says may launch public climate debate in January
    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency could launch a public debate about climate change as soon as January, administrator Scott Pruitt said on Thursday, as the agency continued to unwind Obama-era initiatives to fight global warming.
    The agency had been working over the last several months to set up a “red team, blue team” debate on the science relating to manmade climate change to give the public a “real-time review of questions and answers around this issue of CO2,” Pruitt said…
    “We may be able to get there as early as January next year,” he told the House energy and commerce committee during his first Congressional hearing since taking office.

    Pruitt and other senior members of President Donald Trump’s administration have repeatedly cast doubt on the scientific consensus that carbon dioxide from human consumption of fossil fuels is driving climate change, triggering rising sea levels, droughts, and more frequent, powerful storms…

    Pruitt is reportedly vetting a list of scientists that have expressed doubts over climate change to take part in the upcoming debates, including some that have been recommended by conservative groups like the Heritage Foundation…

    But Pruitt has also been under pressure from conservative climate change skeptics in Congress to go further and upend the scientific finding that CO2 endangers human health, which underpins all carbon regulation.
    At the hearing, Pruitt said there was a “breach of process” under the Obama administration when it wrote its 2009 “endangerment finding” on CO2, because it cited the research of the United Nations climate science body.
    “They took work from the U.N. IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] … and adopted that as the core of the finding,” Pruitt said…

    He did not say whether he plans to try to undo the finding, which legal experts have said would be legally complex.
    Pruitt told Reuters in July the debate could be televised.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-epa-debate/us-epa-chief-says-may-launch-public-climate-debate-in-january-idUSL1N1O71FB

    8 Dec: Bloomberg: Eric Roston: Pruitt Questions EPA Finding That Climate Change Is Health Risk
    The Obama administration rushed an analysis that found climate change is a risk to human health and welfare, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Scott Pruitt said, offering a justification that he could use to reverse that determination.
    The key concern, Pruitt told a congressional panel, was that the EPA in 2009 relied on scientific reports written by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world’s authoritative network of climate scientists. Pruitt called it a “unique situation” in which a regulatory procedure relied on outsiders’ scientific work.
    “There was a breach of process that occurred in 2009 that many believe was not handled the proper way,” Pruitt told a panel of the House Energy and Commerce Committee Thursday. “That process in 2009 was short-shrifted.”…
    Pruitt has questioned that link between emissions from factories, power plants and vehicles and global warming, saying the connection isn’t as clear as scientists have made it.

    His agency has been preparing to launch its own review of climate science in a forum borrowed from military strategy, in which a “red team” challenges conventional thinking and a “blue team” defends it. That will happen next year, he said.
    Uprooting the so-called “endangerment finding” that enabled Obama-era climate regulations is no small task…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/pruitt-questions-epa-finding-that-climate-change-is-health-risk

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  • #
    pat

    the entire article!

    7 Dec: Reuters: South Africa to proceed with nuclear power expansion – energy minister
    South Africa will proceed with plans to expand nuclear power generation but coal will remain the main energy source, Energy Minister David Mahlobo said on Thursday.

    South Africa’s nuclear plans are shrouded in controversy, with local activists and the media raising concerns about transparency and costs as well as safety and environmental risks. (Reporting by Alexander Winning; Writing by Olivia Kumwenda-Mtambo; Editing by James Macharia)
    https://www.reuters.com/article/safrica-nuclear/south-africa-to-proceed-with-nuclear-power-expansion-energy-minister-idUSJ8N1NU01K

    the entire article!

    8 Dec: Bloomberg: South Africa Clean-Energy Finance Has Ground to a Halt: Chart
    by Paul Burkhardt; With assistance by Dean Hope Robertson
    A South African government program that produced the world’s fastest-growing renewable-energy market has screeched to a standstill, with asset financing for projects plunging to $4 million this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The decline stems from state power utility Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd.’s refusal to sign government-guaranteed purchase agreements with independent producers, leaving developers in limbo. President Jacob Zuma on Thursday failed to give an update on the projects, despite expectations raised by Energy Minister David Mahlobo…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/south-africa-clean-energy-finance-has-ground-to-a-halt-chart

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    • #
      NuThink

      Pat, One major problem with ESKOM (Electricity Supply Commission) is that it became a part time electricity supplier and full time gravy train.
      https://www.zapiro.com/080213indep

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      • #
        Ljh

        South Africa is an exemplar of why it is a bad idea to leave much of the economy, especially infrastructure, under the control of the state and parastatal o ganisations. Commissions, tenders, management have been doled out in exchange for bribes and political loyalty without regard to competence. I doubt the ability of this once technological savvy country to build safe reactors and maintain them. (The only electricity generating reactor at Koeberg came close to disaster because of poor maintenance and required emergency repairs, leading to load shedding some years ago. The situation viz a viz corruption has markedly worsened since then). The rewables bandwagon will be jumped upon: lots of tax payer money will go astray, the electricity supply will become more unreliable but there won’t be a meltdown. There’s plenty of easily recoverable shale gas available once the greenies overcome their hysteria.

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  • #
    Mark M

    2002: Lost city ‘could rewrite history’

    “Marine scientists say archaeological remains discovered 36 metres (120 feet) underwater in the Gulf of Cambay off the western coast of India could be over 9,000 years old.”

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/1768109.stm

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  • #
    pat

    Trump at his rally in Pensacola Florida rally this morning (our time), mentioned quitting TPP, attempting to re-negotiate NAFTA, and withdrawing from Paris. said he stay in Paris is the numbers were different, but he couldn’t see it. besides, he said, if US stayed in, it would mean getting sued all the time. said they (the CAGW mob) NEVER sue China. lol.

    8 Dec: ChinaMoneyNetwork: China’s “Great Leap Forward” To Fight Pollution Sparks Rural Distress And Public Outcry
    by Nina Xiang
    China’s efforts to tackle air pollution shows once again that despite government calls to innovate and to lead the world in advanced technology, the country still tends to manage major social, political or economic campaigns in a heavy-handed fashion reminiscent of the “Great Leap Forward” almost sixty years ago…

    In one of many social media posts, residents of a remote village in Shanxi province, the heart of China’s coal mining industry, complain that the costs of burning natural gas for heating would cost five times more than burning coal. So many residents still burn coal for heating, albeit in secret, as anyone caught doing so is likely to be punished or fined. Other posts show natural gas heaters, costing villages as much as 20% of their annual income, being left unused outside…
    Without time to secure qualified workers and equipment, many shoddily installed heaters may quickly become safety hazards…

    Thankfully, one thing that has changed in China since the Great Leap Forward is the level of public discourse, fueled by cell phones and social media. So, in the face of growing public criticism over how dogmatic government policies are hurting some of the poorest people in the country, China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection issued an urgent document earlier this week to reverse some of the more extreme enforcement measures…
    https://www.chinamoneynetwork.com/2017/12/08/chinas-great-leap-forward-fight-pollution-causes-enormous-economic-waste-social-vexation

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  • #
    pat

    just posted at theirABC, complete with lengthy quotes from anti-coal ACF:

    9 Dec: ABC: Liddell Power Station: AGL confirms closure of coal plant, replaces it with renewable energy
    By Paige Cockburn
    Investments will be made in gas, renewables and battery storage as part of the NSW Generation Plan, with AGL confirming it will close the Hunter Valley station in 2022 as planned.
    AGL said along with the NSW Government, it is also exploring the feasibility of a pumped hydro project in the Hunter region…

    AGL chairman Graeme Hunt said the investments reflected the changing needs of the market and improvements in technology.
    “This plan demonstrates that old power plants can be replaced with a mixture of new, cleaner technology, while improving reliability and affordability,” he said.
    An efficiency upgrade will also take place at Bayswater Power Station as part of the plan, which will create more capacity, without using additional fuel…

    Coal plant retirement needs to be sped up: ACF
    Australian Conservation Foundation chief executive Kelly O’Shanassy said the decision was great news.
    “We need to listen to AGL here, we need to switch off coal and move to renewables as fast as we can,” she said.
    Ms O’Shanassy said the Turnbull Government must now drop its obsession with coal and end its delaying tactics on climate change action.

    “Keeping Liddell polluting for another five years was nothing more than a poorly informed thought bubble from the Prime Minister.
    “What we need is a strong, comprehensive plan that would speed-up the retirement of polluting coal plants and accelerate the transition to clean energy.”…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-09/liddell-coal-plant-closes/9243180

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    • #
      OriginalSteve

      Yes, eroding base load capacity, what could possibly go wrong?

      Having spent time working in europe, some if it with corporate risk management, i suspect one thing power companies who collude with the green blob will need to be wary of is corporate kidnappings and ransoms. The reason i say this is that those caught colluding with destroying the economy, may easiky become targets if some disaffected people people start to vent their anger.

      Fyi – petrol up to 1.70 a litre near us.

      Now jack fuel prices up higher, energy prices up again ( based on political machinations ) and if i was working for any energy company id be setting up my own corporate close protection security corps.

      Clearly we dont want thus to happen, but if those in power dont do something soon, somethung will give. My hope us some form of alternative tech will pull the energy companies rugs out from underneath them.

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  • #
    Cynic of Ayr

    Call me picky, but how the hell can you measure the level of the SEA to a millimetre accuracy?
    This in a water level that is constantly rising and falling because of tide.
    I’m sure if a row boat went past a hundred yards away, the level would change.
    But, like temperature, they quote – with an amazingly straight face – “To an accuracy of one tenth of a Unit, plus or minus one half of a Unit.”

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    • #
      jaymam

      The tide gauge near me logs the tide height every minute. There is a long tube with holes in it that seems to average out any waves. This is attached to a wharf in an open harbour in Auckland NZ.
      I think the measuremnts are very accurate.
      https://s7.postimg.org/bmsewagtn/tide20160116azxc.jpg

      40

    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      The average of a large amount of measurements can be more precise than the individual measurements.

      It’s statistics.

      26

      • #
        Graeme No.3

        So long as you have a normal distribution.

        53

        • #
          Harry Twinotter

          Graeme No.3

          I agree, you have to make some assumptions about the data for the trick to work.

          The classic example is calculating the average height of a room full people, you can end up with a result that does not match any of the sample heights. So in that sense the average is a fiction, albeit a useful fiction.

          25

      • #
        AndyG55

        You have to know when you can use that rule.

        You obviously DO NOT know, twooter.

        24

  • #
    pat

    9 Dec: ABC: Adani: Deal with traditional owners clears crucial hurdle despite pending trial
    By Josh Robertson
    Adani’s contentious mine site access deal with traditional owners has won the green light from native title authorities, months before a federal court ruling on whether the agreement is valid.

    The National Native Title Tribunal on Friday registered Adani’s Indigenous Land Use Agreement (ILUA) with the Wangan and Jagalingou (W&J), which is critical to gaining finance for the huge Carmichael coalmine.
    The ILUA represents the Indigenous consent without which major banks will not back resources projects…

    Traditional owners opposing Adani implored the re-elected Palaszczuk Government to drop its backing of the ILUA….FOLLOWED BY 19 PARAS ON THE OPPONENTS…
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-09/adani-contentious-deal-clears-crucial-hurdle-ahead-of-trial/9243040

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  • #
    AndyG55

    UAH Australia has November 2017 as 29th warmest November, (out of 39.)

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  • #
    HarryG

    Lets not forget the wonderful work done by John Daly at Port Arthur.

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  • #
    Peter C

    From the abstract of the Beenstocj et al paper.
    https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10651-014-0293-4

    The global mean increase is 0.39–1.03 mm/year. However, the mean increase for locations where sea levels are rising is 3.55–4.42 mm/year.

    What do they mean by ” locations where sea levels are rising”?

    Excepting to short term changes in sea level (and isolated inland seas), I don’t see how it could be possible for the sea level to rise in one location and not in all locations.

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    • #
      Harry Twinotter

      “I don’t see how it could be possible for the sea level to rise in one location and not in all locations.”

      It is possible. The gravity profile of the earth can change. It will change a lot as the ice caps melt due to global warming.

      Local sea levels can also change if sea currents change. This appears to have happened along the east coast of the US (as well as general sea level rise).

      26

  • #
    David Maddison

    A relevant concept to consider here is “continental isostasy”, the idea that as a continental landmass erodes it loses mass and it floats higher on the mantle.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isostasy

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  • #
    David Maddison

    It seems that a lot of very basic concepts in science and technology are no longer being taught in “universities”.

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  • #
    theRealUniverse

    Yes its pretty basic. For the sea level to rise there requires more water, 2 sources, subterranean and ice melt. As the ice ISNT melting, proof Greeenalnd ice cap is getting bigger. Nor is the Antarctic, except where , proven, there is volcanic heating in certain area but its small. so result: sea levels arent rising.

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  • #
    robert rosicka

    OT but AGL has decided a no coal future and will definitely close Liddel in five years .

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-09/liddell-coal-plant-closes/9243180

    30

    • #
      Old44

      Which has absolutely nothing to do with AGL owning the largest gas reserves in the country 60km away over Barrington Tops near Glouster.
      A conversion to gas at Liddel and they are in the perfect position to exploit the spot price market which will reach critical status with the closure.
      Huge amounts of money rolling in, no messy coal to extract, the Greens licking their boots in appreciation. Win,win,win.
      And Vales Point to follow shortly after.

      00

  • #
    pat

    ???

    9 Dec: TheWire: What a School in Bengal Teaches Us About Sea Level Rise
    By Nagraj Adve
    (Nagraj Adve’s booklet Global Warming in the Indian Context has been translated into Hindi, Kannada and Tamil. He works and writes on issues related to global warming)
    There was a school on one edge of Sagar island in the Sunderbans in 2014; it is not there anymore. Today, sea water regularly comes in a hundred metres beyond the spot where the building stood.
    But the school is not at that spot anymore. A few days ago, in early December 2017, one of the school’s senior teachers sent me photographs of that building taken last month. “The sea water now regularly comes in a 100 metres beyond the spot where our school used to be,” he said. “That school building you came to is completely destroyed. We had to shift to a makeshift, kacchha structure 500 metres inland last year.”

    That entire stretch, where there were once houses and plots of agricultural land, has been swallowed up by the sea, including the house in which we had stayed. The couple who lived there have moved further inland. It’s getting increasingly difficult to find land to move inwards; many families are forced to leave. It’s affected the number of kids in the school. It used to have 250 students a few years ago. “We are now down to 140 students as families leave the island,” the teacher said…

    But the key point is also this: what has befallen Boatkhali Kadambini Primary School is a warning for us all – in the near future, all structures, agricultural lands, and the millions of residents all along India’s 7,500 kilometre coastline will also be at heightened risk. The reason is that while sea level rise in the past has been caused primarily by warmer waters, it is now being fed increasingly by melting ice. The climate scientist James Hansen has been writing for years that sea level rise this century will occur at an accelerating pace due to a non-linear melting of the gigantic ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland…READ ON
    https://thewire.in/203192/school-teaches-us-sea-level-rise/

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    pat

    meanwhile,
    5 Dec: NPR: Greg Allen: South Florida Real Estate Boom Not Dampened By Sea Level Rise
    For coastal communities from Florida to Texas, this year’s hurricane season may be a preview of what’s to come. Scientists say with climate change, in the future we’re likely to see more severe hurricanes and heavier rain events. In addition, as ice sheets melt, sea levels are rising faster, flooding low-lying coastal areas such as Miami.

    But in South Florida, the dire predictions have done little to dampen enthusiasm for development. Real estate consultant Peter Zalewski operates bus tours for people interested in Miami’s still-hot condo market. On a recent Saturday, he was leading a tour of 20 potential buyers — some local real estate professionals, others from Latin America…
    In Miami’s urban core, there are some 20,000 condominium units in various stages of completion…

    He takes the tour group into one of Miami’s hottest neighborhoods, the Brickell financial district.
    “You’re going to have about 6,000 units right here on this street,” he says. “That’s why I call this the belly of the beast.”
    Zalewski talks to the potential buyers about maintenance fees, property taxes and market conditions. One thing he doesn’t mention and which no one asks about, is sea level rise and the potential in Miami for increased flooding. One of the people on Zalewski’s tour, Michael Montalvan, manages properties for overseas investors. He says it’s not a topic he’s ever heard his clients bring up…

    “For people who come invest in a condo, they really don’t care,” Montalvan says. “You know, I’ve never seen an investor come talk to me about it at all.”…

    In Florida and around the world, sea levels have been rising since the end of the Ice Age. Scientists say that with climate change, the rate of that rise is increasing. A model used by local governments in Florida estimates the area may see a sea level rise by as much as 2 feet by 2060…

    During Hurricane Irma, the storm surge brought waist-deep water into Miami’s Brickell financial district, the neighborhood at the heart of the city’s condo boom. But, Miami’s Chief Resilience Officer Jane Gilbert says, because of the city’s strong building codes and elevation requirements, when the storm surge subsided, there was relatively little damage…

    “What was most impressive about Brickell was how quickly it drained and people were back in business,” she says. “Two days later I was walking down Brickell and I could have just hung out on the street at a table at a café and enjoyed my cafecito.”…
    https://www.npr.org/2017/12/05/567264841/south-florida-real-estate-boom-not-dampened-by-sea-level-rise

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    pat

    SBS had the following docu this week, with not a hint of sea level rise posing a problem now or in the future for the wealth living on Sandbanks in Dorset. ditto for the rest of the CAGW-infesed MSM:

    April 2016: Guardian: Hidden Britain by Drone review – spellbinding footage, depressing viewing
    Tony Robinson’s drones took us to some inaccessible places, but inevitably a human dimension was missing, while the Stephen King 11.22.63 adaptation imagined a better world if JFK had lived
    by Emine Saner
    To be fair to the drones, they caught some spellbinding footage…We swooped over the swimming pools and jetties of the super-rich in Sandbanks in Dorset…

    Sandbanks Peninsula
    https://citysightseeing-bournemouth.co.uk/sandbanks-peninsula/

    Sept 2013: Daily Mail: Ross Clark: For sale or just sold, the 15 seaside homes with a combined asking price of £80million that show the property market is booming again
    Research suggests that £80 million worth of property is either for sale or has changed hands in recent months on the tiny millionaire’s playground of Sandbanks — a peninsula of just half a square mile of golden sand which lies between Poole Harbour in Dorset and the English Channel.
    Remarkably, that figure refers to only 15 homes…
    There are only 70 or so homes around the edge of the peninsula, making a location with sea frontage the most sought-after — and the 40 or so houses that have direct water access to Poole Harbour go for a serious premium…

    6 Jun: BBC: Sandbanks hotels £250m development plan ‘devastating’
    The Protect Sandbanks Group said the flats, which would mark the entrance to Poole Harbour, would have a “devastating impact” on the area.
    Operator FJB Hotels says the flats are needed to fund the cost of the Dorset hotels…
    More than 900 objections have been lodged with Borough of Poole.
    Protect Sandbanks Group, set up to oppose the plans, called the flats a “10-storey, faceless” development.
    Chairman David Morley said: “I don’t think this is the right place for towering blocks of flats…
    Under the plans, Haven Hotel – at the entrance to Poole Harbour in Dorset – will be replaced by 196 flats in four blocks and a restaurant.
    Sandbanks Hotel, at the other end of the 1.5 mile-long peninsula, would be restyled as a 175-bedroom hotel.
    Harbour Heights Hotel in Haven Road, at the start of the mainland, is earmarked for 40 hotel apartments…

    Jul 2016: Financial Times:
    The allure of Sandbanks, Dorset — Britain’s priciest coastline
    Both beautiful and extravagant — home prices in the UK’s version of Palm Springs have risen 30 per cent in five years
    On the sandier side of the peninsula, a five-bedroom house on Banks Road with beach access is on sale for £6.5m, through Lloyds…

    only now is there the hint of some concern:

    6 Dec: UK Times: Simon de Bruxelles: We’re being sacrificed to save millionaires’ homes, say residents of Ridge, Dorset
    Villagers in Dorset say their homes will be at risk of flooding if a new wetland is created for wading birds.
    The Environment Agency, Natural England and the RSPB want to make a new “inter-tidal” habitat by cutting through sea defences in Poole Harbour.
    The sea is expected to inundate 370 acres of grassland at Arne Moors near the village of Ridge to create a salt marsh.
    The agencies say the habitat is essential to protect birds including redshanks, avocets, godwits and common and sandwich terns, whose feeding grounds are threatened by rising sea levels. However, villagers point out that sea defences are being maintained to protect the multimillion-pound homes on the Sandbanks peninsula on the other side of the harbour while theirs are being put in jeopardy.

    They are concerned that the moors, which act as a “sponge” to soak up excess rainfall, will no longer perform the same function if they are already waterlogged. Arne Moors is an area of outstanding natural beauty but the RSPB, which owns the nature reserve, says the grassland is low quality so would be perfect for wetland. Two or three controlled cuts would be made in the existing tidal embankment to allow salty, sediment-rich seawater to create a new saltmarsh and mudflats…
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/were-being-sacrificed-to-save-millionaires-homes-say-villagers-8srq8wxqq

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    pat

    9 Dec: Australian: Queensland election: how Palaszczuk’s Adani veto turned tide for ALP
    by Sarah Elks; Additional reporting: Charlie Peel, Mark Schliebs
    Operatives, strategists and senior players from both sides of the political divide have told The Weekend Australian that the Adani veto was political gold, if economically destructive. It ­diverted the attention of the green activists who had dogged the Premier’s first campaign week, and encouraged the powerful GetUp! to enter the fray and barrack for the ALP…

    The veto decision, which defied the advice of the Integrity Commissioner and reversed the government’s written promise to facilitate the ­Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility loan to Queensland’s biggest mining project, sent shockwaves through Labor and changed the course of the election…

    Both sides acknowledge that another “reset moment” for Labor came on November 9. A hard-hat-wearing Palaszczuk visited the Downer train factory in Labor’s ultra-marginal Wide Bay seat of Maryborough, promising she would build trains in Maryborough while Nicholls had ordered them ***“to be built in Mumbai”…
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/queensland-election/queensland-election-how-palaszczuks-adani-veto-turned-tide-for-alp/news-story/fd0e162c2a784a745e0af37bfda712ad

    ***Nicholls was politically clueless. a terrible candidate.

    a well-written piece:

    9 Dec: Courier Mail: John McCarthy: Adani lesson 101: Don’t let politicians get in the way
    IT SHOULDN’T be surprising that the Adani project has turned into a political omnishambles.
    Once it became a plaything for politicians, with its golden lures of jobs and royalties, it was always destined to be sacrificed on the altar of politics…

    The Adani issue is already a disaster for Australian and Queensland investment and its ability to attract foreign companies here.
    The Palaszczuk Government is at fault here. It cranked up the sovereign risk levels when it washed its hands of Adani for political expedience. It has gone from the project’s chief cheerleader to a disinterested third party promising to veto concessional loans from the Federal Government and reciting the line that the Carmichael mine has to stack up on its own.

    This from a government that swarmed all over Gautam Adani in India and Townsville earlier this year, devised special port expansion plans, handed the company a royalty deferral, resumed vast tracts of land for its rail line, and overhyped its potential to the people of central Queensland…

    The key lesson is to not let politicians get involved. If you have a big project, don’t let any wandering politician in a hard hat and a hi-vis vest come anywhere near you.
    There are those who have achieved it.

    Take QCoal. Here is a company, owned by Queensland’s Chris Wallin, which is developing the $1.6 billion Byerwen coal mine in central Queensland that will produce 10 million tonnes of thermal and coking coal.
    That’s a big mine – not in the Carmichael scale, but still big. You have probably never heard of it, and that is a key issue.
    QCoal not only runs quietly, it actually refuses to court publicity, and for that reason, it has not had a politician noticeably near it.

    There’s no doubt that QCoal had its own problems, delays and frustrations with the State Government, but while Adani is struggling to get financing and has been fighting for seven years to get the Carmichael project up, QCoal got its final approvals this year, started its construction a few months ago, and predicts first coal next year.

    ***No protester has been near it, and no media outlet has been running any campaign to stop it.

    Fitzroy Australia Resources is mimicking that approach, and you won’t find Glencore trumpeting the fact the massive Wandoan coal project in the Surat Basin got a mining lease earlier this year.

    So what were Adani’s mistakes? Over-promising for one. Gilding the lily on job creation just put a target on its back. The over-the-top scale of the project also added to it, but the company also has a bad history in India and could probably be accused of not understanding the Australian demand for transparency.

    After spending $3 billion, will Adani walk away? Maybe, but who could blame it?
    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/adani-lesson-101-dont-let-politicians-get-in-the-way/news-story/1d8ac62b8df28aecf75d916723d6bbfc

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    Harry Twinotter

    Not this again. Cherry-picking. Manufactured scandals. And James Delingpole – classy!

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    jaymam

    I am attempting to post an image. I hope it works.

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    Old44

    “– and the adjustments are as large as the trends.”

    And the adjustments are as large as the trends require.

    Fixed.

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    Publius

    What a hoot water seeks its own level so its not posable for sea water to be higher on just one part of the world and not effect he rest of the world seas.
    Perhaps they should check their tide gages to see if they are in fact sinking, eaither that or someone is tampering with the data again.

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    Scott Allen

    The real reason the water level is rising, is the fact that the earth is shrinking (do to the cooling of the interior).
    NASA has proven that the earth is shrinking about .1 mm per year in radius.
    https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth20110816.html
    Now take the formula for measurement of the surface area which is amounts to approximately .8 mm per year of lost surface area. The water has no where to go and does not shrink like the land.
    A simple demonstration is to put a drop of water on a balloon then let air out of the balloon, the surface of the balloon gets smaller but the drop of water’s area remains the same.

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    Harry Twinotter

    I have not heard that one before.

    But I don’t think your numbers add up. You will have to show how you get 0.8mm of lost surface area (not that lost surface area is all that relevant).

    You make a good case for NASAs technology. If they are capable of measuring a 0.1mm drop and you believe it, then you also have to accept their current estimate of sea level rise of around 3.4mm per year.

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      Graeme No.3

      But are they capable of measuring a 0.1mm drop? Since they believe the world is warming they would most likely “adjust” the reading.

      Incidentally, the sea levels in the Eemian interglacial were 6 metres above current ones. The world temperature from the ice core measurements was 2-2.5℃ above the present. There is no argument that that was caused by glacial melt, not arctic sea ice (see Archimedes, and I wonder how those polar bears survived, as they did previous interglacials), so if world temperature has risen 0.85℃ in the last 150 years by simple extrapolation (as beloved by climatologists) we should have had 2 metres sea rise or 13.6mm per year.
      On the other hand the sea level in the Cretaceous rose by 80metres even though there was no ice sheets to melt.

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        Harry Twinotter

        Babble…

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          Graeme No.3

          Are you disputing the paleo evidence for massive sea rises? There is far more evidence for them than your favorite delusion.

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          Graeme No.3

          Harry:

          I have offered 2 scenarios:
          One where the ice cores show an increase in CO2 and in temperature, and in sea level. Climatology agrees with the temperature, backed up by fossils in the Thames Valley of lions, elephants, giraffes and hippos. The last would not have been there if there wasn’t permanent warm water (<24℃) and frequent rain to provide the grass for their nocturnal feeding. Equally the higher temperature is backed up by undoubted evidence of higher sea levels, which you must claim must be due to melting glaciers, since the melting of Arctic floating ice cannot cause any increase in the sea level. The problem is that the CO2 level, according to the ice cores, never exceeded 285ppm.

          The second senario offered higher CO2 levels (1600-1950 ppm), a stable high temperature (Dinosaurs in the Arctic and Antarctic) , and far higher sea levels but there were no ice sheets to melt. Indeed there were no ice sheets in Antarctica (or anywhere else) for another 70 million years.
          So the first needed CO2 rising from a low level to cause Global Warming and higher sea levels, whereas the second had high CO2 levels ,, no ice to melt yet much ihgher sea leves.
          So you are claiming that higher CO2 levels are causing higher temperatures and the melting of glacier ice, bt in the past much higher CO2 levels didn't cause warming and couldn't have caused (non existent) ice sheets and glaciers to melt and raise sea levels so drastically.
          So how do you still claim that higher CO2 levels cause warming and glacier melt leading to higher sea levels? You admit to a lack of scientific training, are you also admitting to a lack of ability in logical thinking?

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    Scott Allen

    surface area of a sphere

    A= 4 x pi x R squared

    I don’t know where NASA or you came up with the sea level rise of 3.4 mm per year but the number is not accurate.

    recent research shows only a .8 mm rise per year using satellite data.

    This was published in april 2017, Geophysical Research Letter.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073308/abstract

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      Harry Twinotter

      You still haven’t shown your working.

      I will give you a hint: 0.8mm is a measurement of distance, not area.

      So you better show working.

      I don’t think you are being serious. The study you cite says “The new GMSL rate over January 1993 to December 2015 is now close to 3.0 mm/yr.” The NASA figure is the estimate for now – it has accelerated somewhat.

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      • #
        Scott Allen

        So mm is a measurement of distance great, as my teenage daughter would say “REALLY’. if the surface of the total sphere were to shrink .8mm that would mean that the total land mass shrank .8mm which would account for the .8mm rise in sea level. (I would think that you would have studied that in high school geometry class). A floating object on a shrinking sphere will thus take up more surface space on the sphere.
        Oh and I though you said sea level was rise 3.4 mm, the acceleration was .8 mm in the period of 1998 to 2006 (that would make the original rise about 2.2, it has since slowed to below that rate.

        If you were to actual look at the sea level data you would find that a 1mm rise has been the mean for the last 25 year.
        here is the data from Vanuatu for the last 26 years.

        http://www.bom.gov.au/ntc/IDO70059/IDO70059SLI.shtml

        Please if you are going to post on this website have your facts in order and learn a little math.

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        Scott Allen

        And if you were to do some real research you would find the oldest tidal gauge, at Kronstadt and has been reading the tidal gauges since 1773 and shows just a 1mm rise in sea level for the past 250 years, with no acceleration.
        http://www.psmsl.org/data/longrecords/ReportsFGI_2000_1.pdf

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    Scott Allen

    surface area of a sphere

    A= 4 x pi x R squared

    I don’t know where NASA or you came up with the sea level rise of 3.4 mm per year but the number is not accurate.

    recent research shows only a .8 mm rise per year using satellite data.

    This was published in april 2017, Geophysical Research Letter.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL073308/abstract

    02