Here in Australia we are in a eerie twilight world: it’s obvious skepticism is thriving, and plain that those pushing the carbon tax are desperate. Yet this is a train-wreck in action.
The current government popularity is as sunk as sunk can be. On a daily basis, commentators ask how long Gillard will survive, or how the Labor Party could be doomed or posit yet another explanation for “the downfall”. “Change or Die” says party elder, John Faulkner. Yet paradoxically, it is just because the government is so desperate that it can’t “afford” to bury the dead-lemon policy called the Carbon Tax. A weak government is a dangerous one.
It’s like a barking mad virus has run amok
Two weeks from now, the Greens get control of our Senate (possibly for six years), but the House of Representatives is as knife-edge dysfunctional as ever. With legislative seats so closely tied, we’re left with three so-called independents who — in theory — might be talked into voting against the Carbon Tax. In practice, it’s virtually an impossibility. On the day that Tony Abbott delivered his searing budget reply, Windsor was seen to sympathetically put his arm around Gillard’s back and walk out with her as she left Parliament. And Rob Oakeshott was, after all, the one who named myself and Viv Forbes in Parliament as the insidious “smoking guns” that killed the Emissions Trading Scheme (why, thank you Robert 🙂 ). Wilkie seems the most hopeful, but then he used to be a member of the Greens, and in any case, we skeptical volunteers can make sense, but we can’t compete with pork barreling supported by the Commonwealth of Australia. How deep is your cheque-book?
But there is another approach — as word spreads of the corruption in science, it’s a one way street for former believers who discover the other side. The public is waking up. Polls are savage —Â the ruling Labor Party racked up a record low on the two party preferred of 41 to 59. That’s a theoretical landslide of massive proportions (if only there were an election).
Right now, we have more chance of convincing millions of Australians that carbon is not pollution than we do of convincing one of the three independents to knock back a big tax.
But get ready, I’m not joking. The Labor Party is so divided, so consumed with it’s own fear, that an internal division, a leadership spill or even the wildcard — a split in the party — are more likely to stop this tax getting through.
But get ready, I’m not joking. The Labor Party is so divided, so consumed with it’s own fear, that an internal division, a leadership spill or even the wildcard — a split in the party — are more likely to stop this tax getting through. The strategy then is to target the marginal Labor party seats.
And as it happens, there are many Labor seats staring abject defeat in the face at the moment. We need to convince those members that flowers and rainbows will not appear once the dust settles on this legislation and the public “get over” their fears. Julia Gillard is trying to persuade her fellow Labor politicians that the polls will bounce once the deal is done and she can finally point to one piece of legislation that “she” hammered through Parliament. (Shame it was one she said she wouldn’t do.)
Those marginal Labor members need to know that the business angst and public anger will only grow. The stories are spreading, BBQ to BBQ, door to door, at Rotary meetings, and school P & C groups. It won’t matter if the initial carbon tax is a paltry amount, hidden inside other costs, because once people know that they were cheated, they will be angry. At last count, at least 50% of the country is still unaware that the science is riddled with rank deceit, dodgy thermometers, outrageous attempts to distort graphs, and that every time Will Steffen says the science is settled he only proves he doesn’t know what science is.
The desperation is so fever pitched, Gillard is wheeling out her own dad to prop up the team, the NZ prime minister has been pulled over to tell parliament how successful their ETS has been (and he’s no doubt OK with that, because NZ sure won’t want to be left holding this baby all alone). Plus teams of scientists are flag-waving more supposed death threats, (got any evidence?) even though the last ones, merely two weeks ago were shown to be rehashed emails from up to 5 years ago which were mostly just boorish rude emails (even when they were current). This — from the team whose fan-base issue death threats regularly against skeptics. Oh the projection…
(Indeed the masters-of-spin tried to pretend that “new swipe cards” were specially issued to scientists facing death threats at ANU, yet Brice Bosnich informs me that the whole Chemistry Department at ANU received new swipe cards last year as a routine upgrade. No doubt skepticism will now increase a smidgen in that Department, as the good chemists grow more doubtful of everything else the warmists have said.)
Tony Abbott called for a plebiscite (a non binding poll of Australian voters) to secure the electorate’s approval of this tax (which obviously wasn’t obtained at the last election, as both major parties said they would not introduce such a tax). Despite this being so eminently sensible, Gillard tells us they have a mandate, and the independents and ALP run a mile, scoffing far-too-melodramatically at the idea of wasting all of $70 million asking the public what they think. Methinks they dost protest too much.
If we can convince enough Labor people that this legislation will end their parliamentary career, and mark the Labor party as the biggest fools in history: the gullible chumps who didn’t see the scam, that will tarnish the reputation of Labor Party for a generation.
Speaking of marginals: if anyone lives near or in one of these (see the list below), and wants to help, I’d like to hear from you. (Please email joanne AT this blog.) Some skeptics are taking things into their own hands. Some are gleaning emails from the white pages and sending messages to people in Windsor’s electorate. Others are printing flyers and doing their own letterboxing. This is grassroots gusto.
It’s time we think outside the box– the establishment sets the rules, but we don’t have to play their game. I’m not talking about breaking any laws, but it’s time to stop doing things within the boundaries they set.
If we can convince enough Labor people that this legislation will end their parliamentary career, and mark the Labor party as the biggest fools in history — the gullible chumps who didn’t see the scam — it will tarnish the reputation of the Labor Party for a generation.
No — my aim is not to make the Labor Party the subject of abject derision (they seem to be trying to do that themselves). I want a strong — and sensible — Labor Party. But I want them to know it’s coming if they continue on this path. The introspection needs to rise above “party process” and “factions” . This is what happens when you let political correctness dictate your culture.
Calling on people who want the madness to end
Never doubt that you can make a difference. One organised person in each marginal electorate who is dedicated to work against the carbon tax will most definitely be noticed, with trepidation, by the member there. One person to find a venue for skeptics to meet, one person to act as a lightning rod for the anger, frustration and resentment that hundreds of people feel. We don’t have to organize rallies. Groups of people wandering the streets with flyers to put in letterboxes will be noticed. There must be local businesses who’d be happy to print copies. And there must be local people who like to walk for exercise who’d enjoy letterboxing — and even more so, with good company.
Of course, we need to let the local member know how keen we are to inform the electorate.
Even if you are not in a marginal seat, think about starting a local social group — like Jim did at Five Dock in Sydney. It’s so popular now, they’ve all made new friends and they meet every week. I need to update that social ties page. Perhaps you might prefer a hotmail account just to start with, or maybe you’re happy to have your contact details spread wide? Think about it.
PS: Anyone with Rotary connections, I did a very successful talk at a Rotary group just a week ago. Word has spread and I’ve already had four invitations since then. If you are hooked up with a Rotary club, and want a speaker, let me know, I’ll try to find one in your area. Likewise, if you want to help present slides at a Rotary function, it’s time to get in touch. 🙂
These are the top 15 ALP marginals:
Corangamite (Vic) Darren Cheeseman ALP 50.41 Greenway (NSW) Michelle Rowland ALP 50.88 La Trobe (Vic) Laura Smyth ALP 50.91 Robertson (NSW) Deborah O’Neill ALP 51.00 Lindsay (NSW) David Bradbury ALP 51.12 Moreton (Qld) Graham Perrett ALP 51.13 Banks (NSW) Daryl Melham ALP 51.45 Deakin (Vic) Mike Symon ALP 52.41 Petrie (Qld) Yvette D’Ath ALP 52.51 Reid (NSW) John Murphy ALP 52.68 Lilley (Qld) Wayne Swan ALP 53.18 Brand (WA) Gary Gray ALP 53.33 Capricornia (Qld) Kirsten Livermore ALP 53.68 Lingiari (NT) Warren Snowdon ALP 53.70 Page (NSW) Janelle Saffin ALP 54.19
–
…
Plus Wilkie…
| Denison (Tas) | Andrew Wilkie | IND | 51.21 v ALP |
…
To send your email to a member of parliament, see the Email list for the Australian Parliamentary Representatives.
UPDATE:
Can we get a group started in Greenway (for anyone who lives close enough to visit). It is north-west Sydney, the Blacktown district. It includes Acacia Gardens, Girraween, Glenwood, Kellyville Ridge, Kings Langley, Kings Park, Lalor Park, Parklea, Seven Hills, Stanhope Gardens, The Ponds, Toongabbie and parts of Blacktown, Pendle Hill, Prospect, Quakers Hill, Riverstone, Rouse Hill, Schofields and Vineyard.
Please email or add your name in comments if you are interested. Thanks.