By Jo Nova

Two trendlines and the climate distraction converged

Just before Easter, the Page Research Centre put out a policy paper that ought to rivet Australians.

We have so casually sleepwalked (sprinted) blindfolded to the edge of cliff. Twenty years ago we were self-sufficient in liquid fuels, then we got distracted trying to change the rain and clouds in 2100 AD. Meanwhile in 2013, the area of South East Asia under the potential control of China was starting to grow rapidly. It is only now, after we have closed 6 of 8 refineries, banned oil exploration and shale use in some states in an Ode to Gaia, but we find that at a moment’s notice, China could potentially put three quarters of our liquid fuel supply under threat.

“In an Asian war scenario, 76% of our liquid fuel requirements would be in immediate jeopardy.”

The situation in 2013 regarding China’s ability to control supply lines:

China’s area of denial capacity 2013

But the world is a different place in 2026:

China’s area of denial capacity 2025

How rapidly we ran towards the pit, closing refineries, assuming it didn’t matter even after China had […]