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Thank Bigotry from The Party of Peace for the shy voter effect

The bullies in the media and academic wings of The Democrats made it dangerous to reveal voting intentions

US FlagIn the Media-Bubble Donald Trump is a psychopathic, narcissist, and cowardly Nazi. And what kind of person would vote for that?  Mostly bad people. Hillbillies, old people. Toxic males — and who wants to be one of those? Even though 60 million Americans voted for Donald Trump, the ABC and CNN seem to find the gun toting militia and lonely hermits with a 6 inch beard. The only attractive Trump voters were reformed ones who were voting for Biden.

Psychology Today reviewed Trump voters and actually talks of “dog whistles” Trump sends to “bigoted supporters”, especially the evil kind of whites that don’t mix with minorities. Trump voters suffer from Authoritarian Personality Syndrome. Indeed, “support for Trump is correlated with a standard scale of modern racism.” So there. The strongest predictors of Trump support were the zip codes with more racial and ethnic isolation … because Trump voters were post code robots.

The Party of Tolerance created the toxic hate-fest of Trump voters with righteous indignation, degradation and humiliation. Everyone got the message.

Bullying is a brittle facade

A phase shift can happen once there is a critical mass. When people realize that it’s OK to shout from the rooftops, boats and highways, the bluff cracks. Is that why spontaneous rallies are breaking out all over the US? (There are two images here, and they may not show in  Firefox. If you can’t see it, watch the top one here.

When nearly all the pollsters were spectacularly wrong in 2016, the Trafalgar group correctly predicted the key swing states. They found a way to count the silent Trump voters.

Bookworm says “the Trafalgar Group Might be undercounting.

Instead of asking people how they planned to vote, it asked them how they thought their neighbors would vote:

[T]he secret sauce used by Trafalgar to try to find “hidden” Trump voters is asking people whom they think their neighbors will vote for. The idea is that someone might be more candid about their own preference for Trump if you couch your question in terms of whether someone they know might support him. Is there any method to that madness? According to a new study, yes.

A new online study finds that Republicans and independents are twice as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in a telephone poll question about their preference for president in the 2020 election. That raises the possibility that polls understate support for President Donald Trump.

Some 11.7% of Republicans and 10.5% independents said they would not give their true opinion, vs. 5.4% of Democrats, according to the study by CloudResearch LLC…

Which sounds like a good trick to get people to fess up. The problem is, when they live in an inner city stronghold their neighbours probably will all vote for Biden so the trick fails to find the Trump support deep in enemy territory (such as it may exist).

After four years of RussiaGate Hate, the Trump voters are even more shy than in 2016:

Positive Trump Polls Spark Debate by Johnathon Easly, The Hill

Trafalgar’s Robert Cahaly says there is a hidden Trump vote that is not being accounted for in polls that show Biden on a glide path to the White House.

“There are more [shy Trump voters] than last time and it’s not even a contest,” Cahaly said, adding that it’s “quite possible” that the polling industry is headed for a catastrophic miss in 2020.

But don’t go counting chickens yet, especially Chickens-We-Really-Want-Hatched. The Uni of Southern California’s Dornside Center had Trump winning the popular vote in 2016 but now it has him 11% behind. Crazy right? When they try to pry out the shy voter, they ask who do they think their social circle will vote for, and that narrows to lead to 5 points. When they ask, “who do you expect to win” the people watching relentless Biden-Winning-Polls put Trump ahead by just one point.

Beware, Manners Matters…

While Trump voters feel they have to keep a low profile in certain circles, there are other circles where there is only one permitted view of Coronavirus, and it applies in opposite ways to both ends of the political spectrum. In nearly every other democracy, the polls rewarded leaders that dealt with the virus decisively, and who stopped it getting  in.  One US leader is the obvious choice for border control, but it’s not even on the agenda.

There may be a silent Covid vote too.



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