Paul Homewood has either caught a Met Office prof rewriting history (the politest way I can put it) or Homewood has caught him issuing deliberately incorrect forecasts. Which is it — deception about the past, or deception about the future? Apparently he thought no one would check his past statements? (And as far as journalists go, he’s almost spot on.)
The Best from the East hit Europe and the UK on Feb 28th. Yesterday Professor Adam Scaife was bragging about his forecasting prowess a month before:
Published: 10:36, 4 March 2018
Professor Adam Schaife, head of long-range forecasting at the Met Office, alerted the Cabinet Office to the incoming weather bomb four weeks ago.
He told them that they should expect Britain to be battered by a deep freeze.
In preparation for the polar vortex he stocked up on essentials.
‘I got extra oil, food and logs in, knowing this was coming,’ he said last week.
But Paul Homewood checked the past Met Office Forecasts. The Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) was key to the Beast, but when the BOM issued the 3 monthly forecast on the 26th of January they said:
…”there is little likelihood of a SSW, and an increased likelihood of milder-than-usual conditions at least in the first half of the 3 month period.”
Perhaps this was code for Ministers to buy tuna tins? By the 9th of Feb, Homewood says they had an “inkling” of the SSW, which was already happening by the 12th. Then they said it was ” too soon to determine exactly what impacts it could have on our weather in the UK.”
It was only by the 18th of Feb that the Met Office warned it: could lead to prolonged cold conditions over the UK, increasing the risk of easterly wind and significant snow”.
But wait! “Signs” appeared:
Prof Adam Scaife, head of monthly to decadal prediction work at the Met Office Hadley Centre, said “Signs of this event appeared in forecasts from late January”.
These mysterious “signs” apparently were signish enough for him to order logs and oil, but not spell that out for the public.
What were the “signs”:
a/ it’s winter
b/ tea leaves spelled “SSW. “
c/ a dream about the Dalai Lama.
The Met Office has some story about the weather patterns repeating from 2009 and 2013, and “starting over India”. Welcome to climate science where forecasts are post hoc but not predictive.
Scaife has serious questions to answer.
If he really did give the Cabinet Office detailed advice about the severe freeze up at the beginning of February, then why did the Met Office not include the warning in their news releases until just over a week before?
On the other hand, if what the Met Office has said is correct, then Scaife is guilty of misrepresenting his advice to the Cabinet Office. He may well have said that there was a chance of some cold weather arriving, but to pretend he warned them about “the beast from the east”, as The Times claims, is clearly deeply misleading.
Perhaps the Met office are feeling a bit insecure?
Commenter RAH: Joe Bastardi was forecasting this Artic blast hitting western Europe a month ago just as he forecast the Nor Easter that is going to strike the East Coast here in the US over a week ago and has said it’s just the first of several that will hit the coast. It is all just WEATHER and Joe was telling people it was coming. — Read more here.
PS: Had a blackout last night, and no internet coverage most of today. I’ll get to the 4Corners report tomorrow.