How convenient?! A new study shows that human influence on the climate started just before the major (and unerasable) heatwaves of the late 1930s, thus wrapping those awkward years under the banner of Man Made Climate. This study provides the handy peer reviewed link-bomb “answer” to that.
The inexplicable heat of the 1930s and 40s has been a constant source of pain for Global Worriers. Skeptics can point out that the decadal rate of warming was pretty much the same back then, even though CO2 was at the ideal, clima-perfecto level, of 310ppm. How could it be that massive 400ppm of CO2 was barely able to break the heat records set when CO2 was almost 25% lower?
Well, finally, mystery solved. A new Australian study compares models that don’t-explain-the-climate with CO2, to ones that-don’t-explain-the-climate without CO2. These models assume CO2 causes warming, so when they take out the CO2 factor that was added in to produce “the climate”, the models prove, ipso gloriousi, that CO2 causes warming. Indeed their method is so good, it can’t fail. As Anthony Watts says “it seems clear to me that the conclusion existed before the paper was written.” Quite.
Say hello to Climate Numerology and the power of “4”
The researchers seem to think that aerosols explain the cooling in the 1950s — 1970s (and the “pause” too?). But I think the study reveals that man-made CO2 is especially potent in years with threes, fours, eights and nines.
The lucky numbers are: 1937, 1940, 1941, 1943-44, 1980-1981, 1987-1988, 1990, 1995, 1997-98, 2010 and 2014. These are called “record-breaking hot years attributable to climate change globally.” As opposed to millions of hotter other years which no one can explain.
The authors seem to have missed that we now know that CO2 has the most effect in years associated with the number 4. In 1937, for example, the CO2 concentration was 309ppm at Law Dome Antarctica. Adding the digits, three, zero and nine produces 14, a hot number. The heat of the 40s is obvious, as is the 80s. In 1998, not only is the year divisible by 4 (if you add 2), but CO2 was 366m and 3 plus 6 plus 6 equals 14!
Climate numerology has as much scientific validity as models that predict nothing. Soothsayers never had it so good.
Human influence on climate dates back to 1930s, new research finds
Humans have triggered the last 16 record-breaking hot years experienced on Earth (up to 2014), with our impact on the global climate going as far back as 1937, a new study finds.
The study suggests that without human-induced climate change, recent hot summers and years would not have occurred. The researchers also found that this effect has been masked until recently in many areas of the world by the wide use of industrial aerosols, which have a cooling effect on temperatures.
“Everywhere we look, the climate change signal for extreme heat events is becoming stronger,” said Andrew King, a climate extremes research fellow at the University of Melbourne, Australia and lead author of the study. “Recent record-breaking hot years globally were so much outside natural variability that they were almost impossible without global warming.”
My favourite line:
King said. “We were able to see climate change even more clearly in Australia because of its position in the Southern Hemisphere in the middle of the ocean, far away from the cooling influence of high concentrations of industrial aerosols.”
Wasn’t the warming fastest in the Northern Hemisphere where the aerosols were also at their highest?
A long time ago, when science was scientific, oceans were considered to be a “cooling” influence.