The agenda is relentless
Look at the list of meetings being held (below) — last week, officials were in Bonn, “clarifying the options”, and they have another five-day session in October. On top of that ministers from 60 nations will meet for “this Sunday and Monday”. On Sept 27 a luncheon in New York has been added onto the UN General Assembly (is that the emergency meeting Ban Ki Moon called last week, or something else as well?). After that foreign ministers are meeting in Lima. This is global wheeling and dealing with big power and money at stake. (If only the UN cared as much about poverty and disease, imagine what they could do?).
The global headlines are a perfect PR mix of contradiction
This weekend in the media the road to Paris is described both as stalled at a frustrating “snails pace” and with “hints of progress“. It’s a stalemate, which also is “starting to take shape“. The UN bureaucrats would be happy with that. If headlines were too confident everyone relaxes, gets bored and moves on, and if headlines are dire, everyone gives up. The name of the PR game is to keep the spectators focused. It needs to be like the final set of Wimbledon with the result close but in doubt til that last game.
Whatever happens in Paris, I predict that when it ends, the PR will say the agreement was a “breakthrough”. It will also say “it’s not enough”. This is in keeping with the spirit of everlasting continuation. Ideally the problem will never be solved but hover in a perpetual state of tipping. No matter what we do, the gravy train will want more.
How much do they need to change the weather? As much as we can give. They will take until the protests hit “that point”.
AFP: “Not repeating the mistakes of Copenhagen” is a common refrain at the talks in Bonn, and something of a mantra for the organisers of the November 30-December 11 conference in the French capital.
And yet, progress has been incremental and painfully slow.
Negotiators left the former West German capital Friday after a week of closed-door meetings with very little to show and a draft agreement “not fit for a negotiation,” in the words of the European Commission’s top negotiator, Elina Bardram.
The agenda is relentless
UN Climate talks progressing at a snails pace [ABC]: The UN said the talks were on track for the summit, due to take place between November 30 and December 11, after a week of negotiations in Bonn made progress in clarifying options about everything from cuts in greenhouse gas emissions to raising aid to developing nations.
AFP: The French hosts have moved aggressively to bridge that gap [between the diplomats unable to negotiate and the leaders who make the decisions].
To start, they have enlisted early and often the ministers who will ink the deal in December, with the next “informal” meeting — with some 60 countries in attendance — scheduled for this Sunday and Monday.
Other high-level parlays coming up will give top leaders a chance to narrow the gap on core climate issues, ranging from hundreds of billions of dollars in financing for poor countries to how ambitious the world will be in slashing greenhouse gases.
On September 27, French President Francois Hollande and Ban Ki-moon will host a climate luncheon summit in New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
– A game changer –
Also in September, foreign ministers will gather in another climate arena, called the Major Economies Forum, with finance ministers set to meet in Lima the following month at a joint session of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank.
Finally, France has invited presidents and prime ministers to attend the first day of the 12-day Paris conference.
A major inconvenience is that all the “victim” nations used as PR tools in this battle actually want some money. We might give them an early warning system instead:
Hints of compromise in Paris climate talks — BBC:
Poorer countries want compensation for extreme weather events that they link to large scale carbon emissions.
But the US and EU have long resisted this idea, fearing an endless liability running into billions of dollars.
The question almost derailed the UN process in Poland in 2013. The parties eventually agreed to set up the so-called Warsaw Mechanism, which was given two years to develop a plan of how the issue should be tackled.
Many poorer nations felt they had been fobbed off on something they regard as critical to their very survival.
A proposal from the US was said to concede that the Warsaw Mechanism should be extended and made permanent. They would also “respond to the concerns of developing countries”.
There was likely to be support for other approaches on loss and damage including early warning systems. But an official with knowledge of the proposal stressed that the Warsaw Mechanism was definitely not about liability or compensation.