You won’t believe…
Research shows surprise global warming ‘hiatus’ could have been forecast
[The Guardian] Australian and US climate experts say with new ocean-based modelling tools, the early 2000s warming slowdown was foreseeable.
Australian and US researchers have shown that the slowdown in the rate of global warming in the early 2000s, known as a so-called “global warming hiatus”, could have been predicted if today’s tools for decade-by-decade climate forecasting had been available in the 1990s.
And I’ve got a model that would have predicted the 1987 stock market crash, the GFC, and the winner of the Melbourne Cup. What I would not have predicted is that lame excuses this transparent, would be made by people calling themselves scientists, Gerald Meehl, and repeated by people calling themselves journalists. (That’s you, Melissa Davey). Though I’m not surprised that research this weak had to be published by Nature. (Where else?)
Although global temperatures remain close to record highs, they have shown little warming trend over the past 15 years, a slowdown that earlier climate models had been largely unable to predict.
This has been used by climate change sceptics as evidence that climate change prediction models are flawed.
Imagine that, the stupid skeptics think that “climate change prediction models” ought to be able to predict climate change.
But climate scientistsTM are working with different and special models. These ones are able to travel back through time to make their “predictions” from after the event.
Gerald Meehl, a senior scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in the US, along with the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research in Melbourne, decided to challenge the assumption that no climate model could have foreseen the hiatus.
Did you see the strawman? How many skeptics assumed that no model could have foreseen the hiatus? How about none, because skeptics aren’ t concerned about assumed results from theoretical models that didn’t exist. We just like to point out that no real model did predict the pause, and this study doesn’t change that.
Besides, at least one skeptic model does hindcast the hiatus.
Meehl says: “We wanted to know: if we could be transported back to the 1990s with new decadal prediction capability, a set of current models and a modern-day supercomputer, could we simulate the hiatus?”
After denying that there was a pause for years, then being dragged to admit it, climate scientists have sorted through 29 different excuses for the Pause, and found one that they can model post hoc.
Studies have shown global warming had not stalled but was occurring in the deeper layers of the world’s oceans instead of the surface, he said, which were absorbing the heat and obscuring levels of warming. In other words the “pause” was actually a slight slowing of the rate of increase in surface temperatures, with 93% of the extra heat trapped in the oceans.
They could call it a “prediction” — if we ignore the time-travelling required. And they could call it a “success” if we pretend they can measure the vast deep global oceans to one hundredth of a degree. Since there’s one ARGO buoy for every 200,000 cubic kilometers of ocean, the illusion of accuracy is no more of a stretch than the idea that a prediction can be made from the future.
While Meehl said all the factors that might be driving the hiatus were still being studied, his research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggested natural decade-to-decade climate variability was largely responsible.
So once again, Climate ScientistsTM discover the natural variability that the skeptics were telling them about for years. Shame they have not yet discovered humility, honesty or reason. Then they might have acknowledged that all the models they used to predict disaster (which they were 95% sure of) were wrong. They might be able to say that all the headlines they generated, and the fear and the money were based on models that didn’t work at the time.
They might also have admitted that if natural forces cause cooling, they could also have caused the warming. It’s just another day of fantasy on the road to global failure. End days.
PS: The Galileo Movement have taken Kevin and Griss’s suggestion and added TM to the “Climate Change” in the T-shirts. Still time to order one!