JoNova: Science, carbon, climate and tax » Water Vapor http://joannenova.com.au Tackling tribal groupthink Wed, 23 May 2012 16:08:51 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Found: the hot spot? Not http://joannenova.com.au/2008/10/not-found-the-hot-spot/ http://joannenova.com.au/2008/10/not-found-the-hot-spot/#comments Wed, 29 Oct 2008 15:37:23 +0000 Joanne Nova http://joannenova.com.au/?p=741 The gap between real world data and thermometers is a make-or-break issue for the AGW theory. The models predict a hot-spot in the atmosphere above the tropics, but the weather balloons (called radiosondes) can’t find any sign of it. Most claims that the hot-spot has been found are not providing any new data, they are just massaging the same old numbers with a different statistical tool. Here are three variations (though the third is not a statistical-spin, it’s just nonsense).

1-Some AGW supporters claim that Santer et al has found the hot-spot. But his paper boils downs to a statistical reanalysis that suggests that due to noise and error, the hot-spot might be there. Santer hasn’t actually found the missing hot spot. He has a case, but it’s not a strong one. The statistical counterargument is at Climate Audit.

Even if Santer is right and the hot spot IS hidden in the noise, the most generous interpretation is that greenhouse gases must have a pretty weak warming effect…

2-Sherwood (another co-author of the Santer paper) published research suggesting that the hot spot is there – but he threw away the temperatures from weather balloons and [...]

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