JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Climate Expert or UN certified Seer? Joelle Gergis does “gut-wrenching” grieving horror, volcanic rage

Remember when scientists were dispassionate, cautious people? Well, forget that.

h/t ClimateDepot, Travis T, Jones

Joelle Gergis unleashes a message of full gut-wrenching, stomach sinking, terrible truth and brutality. Lordy, 50 per cent of the Great Barrier Reef is dead. Sometimes she cries after her talks. She has a vision, a precognition of awful events, but only she and a few other UN certified seers can see. Climate change is the terrifying eco-disaster that sounds more and more like a Stephen King novel. How does a scientist sell climate change? — with pools of blood. It’s like a brain haemorrhage. Seriously.

Her grief is rapidly being superseded by rage. “Volcanically explosive rage”. 

What are the odds that a scientist like this would consider her results impartially — would be willing to toss out her pet ideas if 28 million radiosondes, 3,000 ocean buoys, 120 proxies, 1,000 tide gauges and 40 years of satellite data were all wrong, and all wrong in the same direction? This is the same woman who whipped up a storm of headlines about how Australia was warmer now than 800 years ago based on a 0.09C warming so small it’s less than the error bars and only “measured” with two stands of trees in  Tasmania and New Zealand.

Is she hunting for the truth or looking for fame, status and a captive audience? Once upon a time scientists used to talk in caveats and careful qualifiers. Not any more.

And the irony — after all this hyperbolic unleashed emotion, she twists the knife to call for… wait...”an urgent and pragmatic national conversation.” Where’s the pragmatism in doing science as an unrelated horror movie analogy.

Preparing for this talk I experienced something gut-wrenching. It was the realisation that there is now nowhere to hide from the terrible truth.

“We are witnessing catastrophic ecosystem collapse of the largest living organism on the planet.”

Being willing to acknowledge the arrival of the point of no return is an act of bravery.

Holy Horrors: This woman is so special — Look at me, so brave, so visionary!

She’s a messiah in the making.  Joelle Gergis is one of the chosen ones:

As one of the dozen or so Australian lead authors on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sixth assessment report, currently underway, I have a deep appreciation of the speed and severity of climate change unfolding across the planet. Last year I was also appointed as one of the scientific advisers to the Climate Council, Australia’s leading independent body providing expert advice to the public on climate science and policy. In short, I am in the confronting position of being one of the few Australians who sees the terrifying reality of the climate crisis.

She’s so smart almost no one else sees what she sees.

Because climate change is like a brain hemorrhage. Explain to me how this has any scientific link at all — it’s mere theatre — the two topics connected by personal “shock”. She’s shamelessly milking family grief for propaganda mileage.

Preparing for this talk I experienced something gut-wrenching. It was the realisation that there is now nowhere to hide from the terrible truth.

The last time this happened to me, [finding there was "no where to hide"] I was visiting my father in hospital following emergency surgery for a massive brain haemorrhage. As he lay unconscious in intensive care, I examined his CT scan with one of the attending surgeons who gently explained that the dark patch covering nearly a quarter of the image of his brain was a pool of blood. Although they had done their best to drain the area and stem the bleeding, the catastrophic nature of the damage was undeniable. The brutality of the evidence was clear – the full weight of it sent my stomach into freefall.

 Which part is emotionally frozen?

Increasingly after my speaking events, I catch myself unexpectedly weeping in my hotel room or on flights home. Every now and then, the reality of what the science is saying manages to thaw the emotionally frozen part of myself I need to maintain to do my job. In those moments, what surfaces is pure grief. It’s the only feeling that comes close to the pain I felt processing the severity of my dad’s brain injury. Being willing to acknowledge the arrival of the point of no return is an act of bravery.

Sure. Blood n’ guts one minute, analytical the next:

As a climate scientist at this fraught point in our history, the most helpful thing I can offer is the same professionalism that the doctor displayed late that night in Dad’s intensive-care ward. A clear-eyed and compassionate look at the facts.

Dear Joelle, any time you want to start the clear eyed commentary, go right ahead.

@joellegergis

 

Some scientists opt to be seers,
Deluded by false climate fears,
Then project and assume,
A future of doom,
In papers acclaimed by their peers.

–Ruairi

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Weekend Unthreaded

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Maitland SA: Another expert thermometer site — and with incinerator “forcing”

Some days in Maitland are hotter than others.

Maitland, South Australia, Bureau of Meteorology, Temperature siting.

The very non-compliant Maitland, SA, thermometer site  #022008 |   Imagery  ©2019 Google, Oct 2014.

Thanks to Ken Stewart, the tour through the Great sites of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology continues.

Once again, the experts have carefully graphed, diagrammed, checked and ignored all the things that shouldn’t be within 30 meters of a thermometer. See Maitland Site Info. That fence is described as “Galvanised iron”. The ground is bitumen. The incinerator is labeled “incinerator”. And there are two tanks just out of view to the right, not to mention the tin sheds, trees, buildings and wind breaks.

In 1967 the site only had two tin sheds within a 30 meter radius, which was still not compliant, but vastly cooler than present. The incinerator is about 6 or 7 meters from the Stevenson Screen, and only appears on the maps in 2014.

As Ken says “the site is a heat sink”. It’s not an official “ACORN” star site, but records here get mentions in the media. Worse, Maitland  is one of the sites used to adjust official ACORN data in Adelaide, Cape Borda, Ceduna, Kyancutta, Port Lincoln, and Snowtown.

Ken has also looked at Eudunda, Meningie, and Warooka this week. Anyone happening to be driving past Warooka post office? Please send us a shot to admire from out the back. The screen’s not visible from the street.

______________________

If people want to send in more site photos, start at the BoM page for Climate Data Online. Type in the town, and “Find” the nearest site. On that site’s page look to the top right for a button marked “Details” to find out the lat and long. You can enter them in Google Maps as: 34.3745S, 137.6733E (for example). If you visit a site, please respect the privacy of any homeowners, don’t share street addresses or car number-plates publicly. Email me: joanne AT this site domain.Site details button, BoM, Bureau of Meteorology.

Ken Stewart blogs at Ken’s Kingdom:  The Wacky World of Weather Stations! Go thank him.

 

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Animals’ body sizes shrinking from climate change, study finds, based on a group of wagtails?

Another climate classic today: Animals’ body sizes shrinking from climate change, study finds
by University of Cape Town

Nice theory if you can get funding for it:

“All else being equal, larger animals can tolerate cold conditions better than smaller animals, so one could expect that a warming  is relatively more advantageous for smaller animals,” said Professor Altwegg.

There are 8.7 million species on Earth and this is based on “one” of them:

To investigate this idea and whether it could be true, the research team looked at a group of wagtails living along the Palmiet River.

It’s “a” group — just the one — and a temperature change of less than one fifth of a degree over 23 years:

Based on data from a local weather station near the Palmiet River, the researchers knew that temperatures in the area had increased by 0.18 °C. But they didn’t know how this had affected the birds’ size.

What they found supports the idea that  can shrink Earth’s animals.

“Supports” the idea? The study’s big achievement was only that it didn’t extinguish the idea at the “back of envelope” stage…

Their results showed that as temperature increased along the Palmiet River, the mountain wagtails living there had become lighter. Specifically, they found lighter individuals were replacing heavier ones in the population and that they survived better under high temperatures. This indicated that an evolutionary pressure was acting on the birds to become lighter.

Or maybe food, predators, fertility, rainfall, and disease were more important than 0.18 degrees C which may or may not be larger than the error bars of South African meteorology. Who knows. Australian meteorology has larger “adjustment bars” than this.

But this is definitely evolution. Look closely and we can see evidence that smaller minded researchers are outcompeting larger ones.

This appears to occur in every soft left environment there is, no matter what the climate.

REFERENCE. Seriously?

Jorinde Prokosch et al. Are animals shrinking due to climate change? Temperature-mediated selection on body mass in mountain wagtails, Oecologia (2019). DOI: 10.1007/s00442-019-04368-2

(What are the odds this is pure spoof? I mean, a bunch of wagtails….  fergoodnesssake– Jo)

h/t oldbrew in a comment somewhere at Tallblokes.

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How many silent skeptics are there at NOAA? Dr. Rex Fleming speaks out after years of working there

Dr Rex Fleming has a PhD in Meteorology and spent years at NOAA, as he said involved with climate research from the beginning, and responsible for funding scientists who “pushed” the theory of man-made global warming. He’s written a book called The Rise and Fall of the Carbon Dioxide Theory of Climate Change (2019) and has just done a podcast with James Delingpole.

When David Evans first spoke out as a skeptic we were contacted by someone inside NOAA who said there were many skeptics there, but none of them could speak. We know there are others out there, still silent.

h.t Climate Depot

NOAA Atmospheric scientist Dr. Rex Fleming


My rough notes: Dr Fleming did a PhD in uncertainty in climate and was involved in something called “The weather experiment in 1979.”. He talks about “people who fiddled with the data — ocean data, atmospheric data..”, and about how they “won’t admit they put their temperature sensors too close to cities.”

AAAS LogoJames Delingpole asks what motivates these researchers and Fleming replies along the lines of soft corruption, how people just want to keep the funds coming in. That people are just not willing to fight it. He repeats that Under Obama they would get sacked. So people don’t speak up until the retire. (@ 7 minutes)

A large part of the problem are the science organisations. Fleming talks about how there are three scientific organisations in the USA which will not allow discussion from any skeptical point of view and he points the finger at: American Meteorology Society (AMS), American Geophysical Union — AGU, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science — AAAS (which publishes “Science” supposedly one of the prestigious science journals in the world).

They will not support a “denier”, I could not get published.

Keep reading  →

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114 Private Jets flying into Google Global Summer Camp Party thing

It’s so much fun saving the planet 114 private jets at a time

Sicily beach photo

The glitterati are descending on a ritzy Sicilian seaside resort this weekend to discuss how to save the world. As usual, a bit of wrecking-the-world on the way is fine if it’s “for a good cause” — meaning fame, status, and hot three day summer camps in an Italian resort.

It’s known as Google Camp – the place where famous VIP’s get some training and incentives not to stray off the Google Groupthink-Ranch:

The billionaire creators of Google have invited a who’s who of A-list names— including former President Barack ObamaPrince HarryLeonardo DiCaprio and Katy Perry — to the Sicilian seaside for a mega-party they’ve dubbed Google Camp.

The three-day event will focus on fighting climate change — though it’s unknown how much time the attendees will spend discussing their own effect on the environment, such as the scores of private jets they arrived in and the mega yachts many have been staying on.

It’s only going to cost Google $20 million or so. It’s a small investment in their pet team of lobbyists for Big Government.

Small governments, after all, like to break up monopolies, encourage competition and cut subsidies…

What starling would want to announce they were a climate denier and get crossed off this invitation list?

h/t Pat

Related stories: Google is unbiased, impartial and just happens to be run entirely by Democrat voters

Keep reading  →

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Midweek Unthreaded

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Murray Bridge, South Australia, where thermometers record junk every day

Thanks to Bill in Oz sending in the shot of Mt Barker, Ken Stewart started auditing other sites in South Australia and discovered this masterpiece of expert siting. And thanks to Ken, you can see The Wacky World of Weather Stations: No. 2- Murray Bridge.

Bureau of Meteorology, South Australia, Murray Bridge, Urban Heat Island, ACORN.

Year opened: 1885. Who thinks the site looked like this 130 years ago?  | Image capture Mar 2018, Google ©2019

As he points out:

The screen is in a houseyard near concrete paths, vegetable gardens and shrubs, close to a picket fence, within 5 metres of sheds, sheltered from the south by a 1.6 metre high fence, with buildings to the east, north, and west, and less than 10 metres from the bitumen road.

Like Mt Barker, this is another site which is not an ACORN “top ranked” site that the Bureau of Meteorology use, but results from here are used to adjust ACORN sites like Mount Gambier, so it is de facto a part of that network.  Sites like this are also used to create propaganda, sorry, press releases about “hottest ever records”.

The BoM know exactly how bad this site is, and in carefully measured detail.

Somewhere a paid bureaucrat has dedicatedly measured and mapped all the things that shouldn’t be there within a 30 meter radius.

Ponder the awesome attention to detail for a site that should never have been selected. In that single PDF link, there is not just one map like this but 14 separate maps of this same site dated roughly once a year since 2004. Would private industry spend so much money documenting failure or would they just … move the dang site?! And then there are more maps from before that of the site when it was located near the railway station (see below for that photo).

More meaningless expert data

Would any private company spend money analyzing the exact time of day shadows fall on this thermometer each month of the year, or would they just find a 30 by 30 meter square plot of clear land in the most empty inhabited continent on Earth? Does anyone think a supercomputer could calculate what the thermometer should have recorded, and if so, why bother having a thermometer at all?

Murray Bridge, skyline, Bureau of Meteorology, climate data.

Murray Bridge, skyline, Bureau of Meteorology, climate data.

As Ken says, don’t blame the householder, blame the BoM. As Jo says, send a message to your elected representative.

If life on Earth depends on climate science why don’t the Bureau of Meteorology care about the data? We give them over a million dollars a day, yet they use sites like this to tell us that Australia has “unprecedented” warming.

Modern junk used, old quality forgotten

The thermometers scientists installed in 1896 which recorded extreme heat then may be more accurate than the modern “expert” network, yet the BoM ignore those and use junk like this.

Here’s the expanded view of the site that was chosen in 2004 (white arrow marks the spot). At a glance, there are other sites you might think were better, like the sort under the red dots. Just a thought?

Keep reading  →

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Mt Barker — How not to measure the temperature

Thanks to Bill in Oz who sent in this photo of the Mt Barker site in South Australia.

Ken Stewart at Ken’s Kingdom writes: The Wacky World of Weather Stations: No. 1- Mount Barker

Mt Barker, Photo, Bureau of Meteorology site.

Photo: Bill in Oz.

Count the ways this site breaches the Bureau of Meteorology own rules:

Ken Stewart finds the relevant BoM guidelines. Clearly this site is on a slope, too close to buildings, too close to tall foliage, too close to heat sinks, it should not be artificially watered, or near asphalt. It should have a 30 meter buffer zone, and not be shielded from the sun, rain or wind. BillinOz points out that it is totally screened from the southerly cold winds, and the cold air will be drained from the spot down the slope.

How much do the Bureau of Meteorology care about climate change? — About 1m out of 30m or 3% of their advertised “care” factor.  That’s a a 97% Junk-Science rate. The future of life on Earth is supposedly at stake and the “experts” can’t even be bothered accurately measuring the climate change they tell us we need to pay billions of dollars to solve.

Mt Barker, Bureau of Meteorology site, 2015.

Could it be worse? Sure — in 2015, the Mt Barker thermometer was on the other side of the block next to the driveway and the van.  | Imagery  ©2019 Google

Obviously every record claimed at this site is scientifically meaningless. This sort of error can’t be homogenized or adjusted away, but taxpaying Australians might think that installing a proper site would be possible when we pay them over a million dollars a day.

Mt Barker’s temperatures are published at their Latest Weather Observations page. As Stewart points out this flawed site is used to adjust temperatures at official superstar ACORN-SAT sites at Adelaide, Cape Borda, Nuriootpa, Robe, and Snowtown. And thus does bad data pollute Australia’s temperature records and the press releases that are used to scare the public into paying more money to fix a climate problem no one can be bothered to even measure properly.

The bottom line? Ask our M.P.’s to audit the Bureau of Met. If the environment matters, there must be an independent audit. Skeptics have asked, and the Bureau threw out the whole dataset to avoid the audit. They admit they won’t describe their methods. If the Greens or Australian Conservation Foundation cared about the environment, they would demand an audit like we do.

In 2015 this site was on the other side of the block next to the driveway and car. “Lucky” the BoM realized, and … moved it to another inadequate spot.

Those fantasy bureau guidelines:

Keep reading  →

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ABC Climate Zombie Myths and Fantasy Strawmen. Who’s feeding the trolls?

Skeptics are now the brain-eating undead from Haitian Cult Voodoo. Just more namecalling in lieu of science. The ABC has become the US Weekly,  TVWeek, or OK! of national policy, filled with inane clickbait animations, fictional stories and fantasy myths.

Looks like it’s projection again

Here’s a guy who believes that we control storms, floods and droughts with solar panels and wind turbines. The only climate zombie that needs hosing down is all his. He’s the one saying that the type of milk you drink, or your funeral service are to blame for random stuff like spotted quoll fertility, shark attacks, or tornadoes. Go vegan to save the planet!

Poor Nick Kilvert is so badly trained he can’t figure out why ideas like “CO2 feeds plants” just won’t die. The mystery of how the truth keeps coming back (despite their best efforts). So this weekend he put out a handy condescending guide of strawmen and mythical myths for beleaguered believers who are lost for answers to skeptical scientists. The man’s cult-like belief is so obvious, the real question we need to ask our elected MP’s is why are we funding an journalistic organization which has staff who are so incompetent, and who clearly work as ideological partisan activists? After writing an article like this, could anyone argue that Kilvert is capable of dispassionate investigative research on this topic? Kilvert, with a Bachelor of Applied Science and Honours in Ecology, apparently thinks Nobel Laureates, NASA Astronauts, Professors of Atmospheric physics are brain sucking zombie deniers, involved in a big fossil funded conspiracy.

This is the same guy who wrote climate fiction: Life at 0.5 degrees hotter: imagining an apocalypse by 2040 where 2,000 km of Barrier Reef dies and jellyfish rule the world, and where gardens are dead, err, because our rainfall increased, yeah?

This is a man making his own tin foil hat:

Have you got climate zombies? We debunk the myths that refuse to die

 Nick Kilvert

They might pop up in your social media feed, or manifest in comments under climate change news online. They might even appear at your Christmas lunch. And they’re rife in some media outlets — they often come out after dark.

They’re the cases against climate science that were buried years ago, yet somehow, refuse to die. “It’s the Milankovitch cycles”, “CO2 is good for plants anyway”, “What have the scientists ever done for us?”

You might have even been infected yourself. It’s no surprise really, a multi-billion dollar campaign funded by the likes of Donors Trust, Donors Capital Fund, Koch-affiliated foundations, and parts of the fossil fuel industry has been animating these damned corpses since the ’80s.

So consider this your own handy guide for killing the undead. Or at least a shield for deflecting their relentless pursuit of brains.

Good luck out there.

#1 CO2 doesn’t cause warming

Strawman. None of the serious skeptical scientists or main commentators say this. Kilvert couldn’t quote skeptics here because there’s no one to quote.

CO2 is a greenhouse gas, it absorbs infrared. The question is whether the clouds, humidity and jet streams amplify this warming or neutralize it. Believers assume these feedbacks are positive, put that in their models then, lo, their models tell them the feedbacks are positive. The miracle! Skeptics look at all the data (before it’s adjusted) and find that feedbacks are negative. The hot spot is the key fingerprint of feedback and it’s missing. The warming has happened before and the runaway greenhouse didn’t happen. Skeptics point out that the CO2 effect is saturated already, and water is a far more important as a greenhouse gas -- and even the IPCC agrees.

Kilvert either hasn’t done any research or is working to mislead ABC readers. Which is it? Lazy or dishonest?

#2 It’s Milankovitch cycles

Another strawman. The skeptics he debunks are imaginary creatures he has invented. The largest skeptical site in Australia (this one) has over 3 million words on it and “Milankovich” gets barely three times, none of them by me. Clearly it’s an important plank … not.

#3 There’s been a 5? 10? 20? year pause in warming

Denial again? Hans von Storch, the head of the IPCC, and other climate scientists all admitted there was a pause — they call it the global warming hiatus. They admitted the models didn’t predict it.

Flashback to 2013 when Rajendra Pachauri admited the pause had lasted 17 years:

In 2008 NOAA said that pauses of 15 years or more didn’t fit with climate simulations (so if it went longer, the models would be wrong). Likewise James Hansen was caught in ClimateGate saying that ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’ When the pause got a bit longer still, Ben Santer said in a paper it really was 17 years we needed to see. That was 2011.

The IPCC says: there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing trend in causing the surface-warming hiatus…. {WG1 8.5; WG1 Box 9.2}

Kilvert says: “This little doozy has gone a bit quiet in the past few years, though it ate quite a few brains in the early 2000s and again in 2012/13.”

He thinks 1998 is in tenth place, but that’s only in hyper-adjusted data changed with secret adjustments. The best satellite system in the world reports that year as number 2, and shows the obvious, unarguable pause. All the major datasets once showed a pause, til they were adjusted. At the same time as the pause, sea levels slowed, hurricanes paused,  deny deny deny, eh?

Deny this:

UAH, Global Temperatures, data 2018. The pause, global warming hiatus. Graph.

Anyone with an eyeball can see the pause. UAH Satellite global data, June 2019.

Energy cannot be created nor destroyed. The pause is still a problem, even though it stopped. The models were wrong, and no wonder. They are missing key forcings like solar magnetic, solar spectral changes and the solar wind.

#4 It’s a natural cycle, man

Apparently it’s not natural because 250 million years ago CO2 rose fast and caused the Permian Extinction. Kilvert argues that all past changes were slower than this one. Since we know warmer temperatures cause CO2 to rise about 800 years later, it takes some magical thinking to assert that any scientist can show CO2 rose before temperatures 250,000,000 years ago. Show us your error bars.

Riddle me this: we’ve got 800,000 years of ice cores, and modern satellites circling the Earth 24 hours a day, but the only proof that CO2 causes rapid warming comes from a quarter of a billion years ago?

#5 Plants grow better with more CO2 anyway

Another myth that isn’t.  Plants grow faster, handle drought better, need less water and increase their yields by 15 to 30%. Market gardeners pay money to pump CO2 into their greenhouses. Maybe they are all wasting their money? Arid regions of the world are 11% greener, mostly thanks to CO2. Luckily farmers don’t rely on the ABC to give them useful information.

CO2 is not just important to plants is often the rate limiting step. New research shows that the impending climate disaster puts the world in danger of growing too much corn and soy. People won’t know what starving is!

Any nutritional deficiencies are so minor they can be solved by adding two chickpeas to each cup of rice.

#6 It was warmer during the Medieval Warm Period

Skeptics can name hundreds of peer reviewed studies from every continent showing it was as warm or warmer. Believers say that these are just localities, but can’t name continents that were colder at the same time. They “know” it was cooler 1,000 years ago because their models say so, and because junk science graphs look like Hockeysticks — but only if they use tree rings for 2,000 years then throw them away and use thermometers near airports instead. The Hockeystick graph has all the skill of a random number generator but fake scientists are still defending it. Fake journalists are letting them get away with it.

Put some modern trees into the hockeystick and it falls apart. Shall we say “Hide that decline“?

#7 But the world’s been colder before when CO2 levels were higher

Another mythical myth.  I’ll just quote Kilvert: “Actually CO2 has been at higher levels than today, when temperatures were much cooler.” Kilvert debunks himself.

#8 Climate science is a conspiracy of the ‘elites’

Strawman #3. No conspiracy needed or claimed when there’s $1.5 Trillion in incentives, plus rampant namecalling, bullying, sacking, more sacking, and generally nasty petty behaviour exactly like the sort that Kilvert displays. What scientist wants to be  blackballed,   terminated, punished, vilified and pursued in court with deep pockets willing to waste half a million dollars?

Who’s denying that $1,500 million dollars buys a lot of confirmation bias? Not skeptics. See: Climate Money.

Kilvert sys: “The reality is that not acting on climate change will punish the poor. The IPCC predicts millions will be displaced if warming hits 2 degrees.”

The reality is that acting on climate change is already killing the poor, and the IPCC can’t predict anything except for getting lucky on Arctic ice and the refugees didn’t seek refuge because their islands growing.

#9 CO2 has historically followed, not caused warming

 Another myth that’s hard to break because it’s true. Skeptics cite the Vostok Ice Cores, Kilvert cites Al Gore.

He goes on to quote a couple of scientists who just declare the positive feedbacks to be real. Kilvert doesn’t ask them to name actual examples of where they demonstrate this mythical amplification in the ice cores. Where are those papers? If there is amplification, if CO2 is the defining “force”, why is it so hard to find examples of it?

See: Where is the evidence for the dangerous positive feedback in the Vostok Ice Cores? Where is Carbon’s “major effect” in the ice core data.

#10 Climate scientists are only in it for the money

Kilvert appears to be saying that climate sensitivity is 3.3C because mining engineers are paid more than climate scientists.

This is no accident. With climate scientists inept modeling skills, which mining company would employ them?

The mining engineers and geologists are mostly skeptics. Why? They can add up. Their jobs depend on getting it right.  Climate Scientists jobs depend on getting the “right” answer. If engineers and geologists don’t find the oil, gold or gas, they get sacked. If climate scientists don’t find a “climate crisis” they lose their job. They’re just mining for different things…

The truth is that B Grade graduates of ecological degrees can’t get better paid work than “in climate science”. They get rock star status, two week round-the-world UN junkets every year, no journalist asks them hard questions, and besides, if they don’t toe the line, they get sacked.

Cowardice everywhere

The ABC can take the punters money but it can’t allow taxpayers to comment, lest inept, unresearched activism like Kilvert’s gets torn to pieces on their own site.

Likewise Kilvert can’t risk naming large skeptical websites either. Despite skeptics being stupid tin-foil hat wearing conspiracy theorists, apparently Kilvert is too scared his readers might find out that he doesn’t know what skeptics say, doesn’t have any real answers, and is debunking strawmen and mythical myths.

And why has the ABC sunk to posting nauseating repeat animations, as if their website is run by teenage boys? Even tabloid news is above that. This is inane mocking, not a scientific argument. And that’s exactly the point. This ABC article is not there to educate, to discuss science, or explain national policy. It appears to be there to tell readers what opinions they are permitted to have — to warn them how they’ll be treated if they ask the wrong question. The flicker-repeats are the type of images used by teenage clickbait-minds looking for easy things to go trolling on to score points to boost their low self-esteem.

Apparently, the ABC aren’t writing for national policy makers any more, they’re feeding the trolls. Well, send ‘em on over…

h/t David B, Pat, George, Todd H, Travis T. Jones, BillinOz, bemused.

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Weekend Unthreaded

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Robbins Island Mega wind farm: killing birds and baseload power at 300 kilometers per hour

After nearly two weeks the ABC carrier pigeons finally brought the news that Bob Brown, former Greens leader, is campaigning against this gigantic wind farm — the $1.6b one in NW Tasmania that wants to be the largest in the Southern Hemisphere. Could it be the ABC doesn’t want to admit they were wrong too, pushing wind power non stop for years?

Look how erratic that wind is — 90% one day, zero the next

Tom Quirk looked at the nearest wind farm to Robbins Island, and it’s a fitful machine (see that graph below). Worse, it fails in synchrony with most wind farms in Australia. Thus exacerbating the unstable, fickle supply of wind energy.

 Tom Quirk predicts the demise of another coal plant

Quirk was Deputy Chairman of VENCorp, which managed the transmission and wholesale natural gas market and system planning for the electricity market in Victoria, Australia.

A wind farm on Robbins Island will simply extend the variations in power supplied to the mainland while making no difference to the correlations of wind through the states in the wholesale market. Thus more backup would be required from gas and hydro sources. Loy Yang B with 1,000 MW would clearly become uneconomic to operate since more wind farms are also planned for Victoria…

 

Woolworth Wind Farm, Tasmania, Output, June 2019, Graph.

Woolworth Wind Farm, Tasmania, Output, June 2019,   Data source   anero.id/energy

 The proposed 400 to 1,000 MW Robbins Island wind farm is at the North West of Tasmania close to the 140 MW Woolnorth wind farm. The capacity factor for Woolnorth is shown below. The behaviour of the Robbins Island wind farm should be the same with a capacity factor varying from 0 to 90%.

If it’s built, it will make good money for the American owners on the days it works, but make electricity more expensive for Australians. The awkward truth is that, barring freak accidents, its power arrives exactly when Australians don’t need it — when they have an excess from every other wind farm and a steady reliable baseload supply working just fine that must sit around, waiting for the wind to ebb, while it has bills to pay.

Like other windfarms it will help drive the cheap baseload off the grid, and leave Australians footing the bill for high cost peaking replacements.

With turbines moving at 300 km an hour it’ll be the apex predator –  death to avians too.

Whats the difference between and ABC reporter and a PR writer? PR writers are more honest.

They don’t pretend to be journalists.

The ABC headlines Bob Browns opposition as “the height of hypocrisy” – which it is, but hey, at least there’s a point where he admits the truth. Shame he didn’t speak up sooner.

Carrington Clarke of the ABC gives free advertising to an industry, interviews no critics and does no research. Watch the pea, the word “average” is used to bury the bad-news variability. This sounds like it could be from a prospectus for UPC:

“We have an absolutely stellar, solid, low turbulence, high average wind speed around the 36 kilometres an hour average, which in my experience is some of the best in the world,” UPC chief operating officer David Pollington said.

“Best” in this case being “best for the owners”, bad for Australians. For about a quarter of the entire month of June the output was between ten percent of capacity and “zero”.

The average buries the bad news on prices too:

Mr Pollington argues projects like Robbins Island are good news for consumers in Tasmania and on the mainland. “We’re confident that we can produce energy at a lower rate than is currently the average price in the market,” Mr Pollington said. “So we should be helping depress the price of electricity for consumers.”

It’s hardly an achievement if wind turbines can make electricity cheaper than the “average” record high prices we pay now. In any case, it’s the effect on the whole system that matters, not the cherry-picked five-minute bids for wholesalers on windy days. The average retail price paid by consumers is what matters and the more wind we get, the higher it is. If wind farms “depressed” the price (rather than the consumer) there might be a country on Earth which has cheaper electricity since it built wind farms. There isn’t.

Tom Quirk looks at the erratic synchronicity of wind power of the national grid:

 Wind power supplied is an example of state by state wind correlations that reflect the reach of the weather systems in the Australian eastern region.

Total wind power contribution to the wholesale electricity market

Total wind farm output Australia, June 2019, Graph.

Total wind farm output Australia, June 2019 |    Data source   anero.id/energy

The capacity factor is the energy produced as a percentage of the maximum output of a wind farm. The total capacity factor is the weighted average of all wind farms.   The capacity factor is a useful way of showing the correlations in wind energy supply from the state regions.

The figures below show strong correlations for Tasmania, Victoria and South Australia with lesser correlation for New South Wales and Queensland.

Wind farms, Australia, combined output, June 2019. Graph.

Wind farms, Australia, combined output, June 2019.  Data source   anero.id/energy
.

There are 55 wind farms on the National Electricity Market in the Eastern States: 2 wind farms in Tasmania and Queensland,  22 in South Australia,  17 in Victoria,  and  12 in NSW. Those graphs for June 2019 for each state up close:

 NSW Wind powerVIC Wind power QLD Wind power   |  Tas Wind power  |  SA Wind power |

Sometimes all 55 wind farms are useless.

What about the birds?

Here’s one of the great whitewash lines of PR by the ABC:

UPC’s Mr Pollington says the company has been working with experts to ensure the wind farm is designed to minimise the impact on birds.

What does minimize even mean? They’ll make choices that kill less birds as long as it doesn’t cost much. The way to minimize the impact is to not build it in the first place.

Graham Lloyd, The Australian, reports on the terrible toll, and reveals useless forward estimates, Bob Brown, and minimization are:

…AGL’s Macarthur wind farm in Victoria is a good example of how expert reports can be wrong and conditions difficult to enforce.

Local farmer and bird lover Hamish Cumming has been raising the alarm for almost a decade. In September 2014, he wrote to all federal MPs: “The AGL Macarthur wind farm is slaughtering raptors at an alarming rate and no one seems to care, especially the Greens.” He asked Brown for help: “Dear Bob, I think the Greens in Victoria (and nationally) have forgotten what they are supposed to be protecting,” he wrote. “They refuse to help me make AGL adhere to their permit conditions just because they are a wind farm.” Cumming says he got no reply.

When the Macarthur wind farm was approved, AGL estimated it would kill two birds per turbine a year. However, post construction monitoring showed the project was killing 13.4 birds per turbine a year, more than six times the pre-construction estimate. The AGL permit application claimed a raptor kill of three a year across the wind farm, yet a post-construction report estimates a kill of 430 raptors a year, 30 per cent of bird deaths at the wind farm.

The experience in northern California is an 80 per cent decline in golden eagles numbers with none nesting near the Altamont facility, although it is a prime habitat.

 

In comments on the last Robbins Island thread one Prof Mike Tarburton suggested smaller wind turbines could save the vulnerable birds:

The best solution to this conflict is to use different types of Wind Turbines that would not kill birds. There are at least 4 types of smaller wind turbines on the internet that will not kill any birds. That they are smaller would mean that they would be easier to transport to Robbins island. One of the birds I research, the White-throated Needletail is the main species being killed at a wind farm near Robbins island, in spite of it being one of the fastest birds in the world. Because it flies all day it is going to pass many wind farms and risk being killed. Two weeks ago the Australian Government accepted my application and declared this species as Vulnerable.

Also near Robbins island, Short-tailed Shearwaters or Muttonbirds are also being killed by wind farms of the same type that are used across Australia. Which politician has shares in this company. Lets solve the problem by using the types that will generate cheap electricity and do not kill birds.

Prof Mike Tarburton.

Likely this is Prof. Mike Tarburton, “retired” from Dean of School of Science & Technology, Pacific Adventist University, Papua New Guinea. His website is  Swifts of the World.

Turbines are going to get bigger, so Prof Tarburton, bird specialist, is effectively telling us that things for birds are going to get much worse. Sadly, the awful bird toll will get more awful.

Smaller turbines might save the birds, which is a good thing, but they still make grid-wrecking, job-destroying electricity that makes the entire network more inefficient and more expensive. And presumably small turbines must be more expensive per Watt than large turbines or the profit making corporations wouldn’t be building the biggest ones they can get approval for.

Lets save birds and jobs and keep the heating and lights on.

The slaughter of birds is severe,
And from habitats some disappear,
When a single wind-farm,
Can do terrible harm,
Killing hundreds of raptors a year.
             –Ruairi

– Jo

h/t David B, Pat, George.

Data source   anero.id/energy     from Andrew Miskelly

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Denying 2000 years of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age on every continent

Here we go again. For five or so years believers didn’t really mention the . Too bruised by the embarrassment of Hockey Stick Zombie failures. But it’s an inconvenient era they have to rub out because none of the expert models can explain what caused it, and it’s hard to panic about same temperatures that Edward the Confessor survived with oxen and carts.

And it’s hard to call the modern warmth “man-made” if nature created something just like it 1,000 years ago.

Climate change: We haven’t experienced anything like this in the past 2,000 years

By Michael Collett, ABC, Environmental Copy and Paste Promoter

Climate scientists writing in the journal Nature have found there is no evidence for “globally coherent warm and cold periods” over the past 2,000 years prior to industrialisation.

That’s significant, because climate change deniers have sometimes pointed to epochs like the so-called “Little Ice Age” or “Medieval Warm Period” to argue that the current global warming is one among multiple similar global climate events.

But what the research actually shows is that other “peak warming and cooling events” over the past two millennia appear to have been localised, whereas the human-caused global warming observed over the past 150 years is unparalleled in its global scale (not to mention its absolute temperatures).

Who’s denying a million raw data points?

This new global temperature reconstruction by The Pages Consortium miraculously agrees with the models yet disagrees with hundreds of stalagmites, corals, ice cores, trees, lake sediments, mud from the ocean floor, pollen dust and 6,000 boreholes. It disagrees with the history of peoples like the Vikings. It disagrees with plants that grew and with trees that survived “above the snowline” that shouldn’t. This map shows just some temperature estimates from all around the world during medieval times relative to today.

World Map of temperatures and studies showing warming

Many of these papers come from Craig Idso at CO2Science.org  who maintains the Medieval Warm Period Project. Back in 2009 when I did this map for the Skeptics Handbook II it was a first. Even then, there were already 442 separate research institutes from 41 countries which had published papers showing the MWP.*  Also thanks to Luning and Vahrenholt, and the team at NoTricksZone.

The latest paper is trying to claim that all these temperatures were not recorded at the same time and that it wasn’t global. But when proxies are combined it’s obvious it was. Even in our modern warm period, there are still warm and cold records being set at the same time. Medieval times were no different. It’s only by collating and combining many proxies that we can see “the average”.

18 proxies tell us the world was the same or warmer 1,000 years ago

Craig Loehle in 2008 used 18 non-tree-ring proxies which included Greenland borehole data, Conroy lake pollen, isotopes from Chesapeake Bay, Sargasso Sea, Caribbean Sea, results from caves in South Africa, the Swiss Alps, Sea Surface reconstructions from Norway, the northern Pacific and the South Atlantic and other proxies too.

Temperatures were higher 1000 years ago, and cooler 300 years ago. We started warming long before cars and powerstations were invented. There’s little correlation with CO2 levels.

Loehle et al 2008

Loehle 2008. Note the graph ends in 1935, not 1980.

 

 Here’s what 120 proxies from the Northern Hemisphere tell us

Ljungqvist et al combined 120 proxies of all different kinds and found this pattern for the last 12 centuries across the Northern Hemisphere.

120 Proxies, Medieval Warm Period, Ljundqvist, et al, Graph.

120 Proxies, Medieval Warm Period, Ljundqvist, et al, 2012.

Then there’s Christiansen et al 2012 who followed 32 proxies from the Northern Hemisphere back to the year 0 AD.

Christiansen et al, 2012. Graph, Medieval Warm PEriod, Little Ice Age.

Medieval Warm PEriod, Little Ice Age.

Here’s the Medieval Warm Period in China

China, Year 0 - 2000, MWP, LIA, Graph, paleohistory, climate change.

(Click to enlarge)   Quansheng Ge et al, 2017

 

Here’s the Medieval Warm Period in Antarctica, and the Little Ice Age:

Just in case you thought there wasn’t enough from the Southern Hemisphere.

Luning, 2019, Graph, Antarctica Temperatures, AD 0 - 2000, MWP, LIA.

60 sites across Antarctica were used to create this composite trend. – Lüning, S., M. Gałka, F. Vahrenholt (2019)

 Ocean heat content around Indonesia shows Medieval Warm Period and 2C warmth in Holocene

Rosenthal et al 2013 put out quite the zinger of a paper. They’ve reconstructed the temperature of the water flowing out of the Pacific to the Indian Ocean over the last 10,000 years and as deep as 900m. The Indonesian Throughflow  is pretty significant in global ocean currents.

Indonesian Water, Temperature, 1000AD, Roman Times, Midieval warm period. Graph.

Figure 4.  Holocene changes in Pacific Ocean heat content measured as it swings past Indonesia on the way to the Indian Ocean. Reconstructed anomalies are calculated relative to the reference period of 1965 to 1970 C

Clearly that water was warmer 1000 years ago than it was circa 1970. It was even warmer again in the Holocene.

 

3000 hot and cold years in a South African cave

South African Cave last 3000 yearsSouth African Cave last 3000 years

Source: Holmgren 2001. See also here and here in African reconstructions.

The Southern Ocean 7000 year record also shows long term cooling as well as the Roman Warm Period.

Then there’s 10,000 mostly hotter years in Greenland

No paleoclimate discussion is complete without GISP:

Greenland GISP2 ice core - last 10,000 years.

UPDATE: This graph shows the ice-core data up until 1855. The last 150 years (1705 to 1855) are highlighted in red to show the warming as the Earth began coming out of the LIA.

6,000 Boreholes show it was global

Just some of the places these boreholes have been dug. They stick a thermometer down a hole, and all over the world there is a pattern that repeats as temperature changes on the surface travel gradually down through the rocks. Sure, the resolution is bare bones. The data is “smoothed”. We can’t use boreholes to know if things were warmer than today and we can’t tell how long ago that big last surge in warmth was, but where boreholes come into their own is in showing us just how global that last big warm spell was.

 

Boreholes are handy because they assess land areas that have few other proxies.

 

Below is the latest iteration of a graph that went through a savage evolution from 1997 – 2008. What stayed constant was that boreholes always showed a medieval warm period and a little ice age, that is, except for the time Huang et al “lost” nearly 20,000 years of data.

Huang and Pollack 2008: Their latest boreholes published study

 

In the graph above, if the assumption about the speed of heat flow is shifted to line up the coolest point with other proxies in 1680 and the warmest point to somewhere around 1000 – 1200 the amplitude would increase (see the jaw dropping 1997 original paper which claimed it was much warmer in medieval times).

These papers are by no means the only important ones. There are so many others…

So go tell the world — everywhere we look the world was hotter and colder in the last 1000 years, the last 10,000 years and the last billion.

h/t George, David B, Original Steve, Peter Fitzroy.

 

Climate data has long verified,
That M.W.P. and L.I.A. were worldwide,
When a CO2 dearth,
All over the Earth,
To the warming and cooling applied.
    –  Ruairi

 

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The pause in global warming shows CO2 may be *more* powerful! Say hello to Hyperwarming Wierdness.

A new Nature paper claims that pauses and cooling phases mean C02 may cause more warming than anyone thought.

Unskeptical Scientists Trust ModelsPause Excuse #431

It’s all so obvious. If researchers start with models that don’t work, they can find anything they look for — even abject nonsense which is the complete opposite of what the models predicted.

Holy Simulation! Let’s take this reasoning and run with it  — in the unlikely event we actually get relentless rising temperatures, that will imply that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is lower. Can’t see that press release coming…

Nature has sunk so low these days it’s competing with The Onion.

The big problem bugging believers was that global warming paused, which no model predicted, and which remains unexplained still, despite moving goal posts, searching in data that doesn’t exist, and using error bars 17 times larger than the signal. The immutable problem is that energy shalt not be created nor destroyed, so The Pause still matters even years after it stopped pausing. The empty space still shows the models don’t understand the climate — CO2 was supposed to be heating the world, all day, everyday. Quadrillions of Joules have to go somewhere, they can’t just vanish, but models don’t know where they went. If we can’t explain the pause, we can’t explain the cause, and the models can’t predict anything.

In studies like these, the broken model is not a bug, it’s a mandatory requirement — if these models actually worked, it wouldn’t be as easy to produce any and every conclusion that an unskeptical scientist could hope to “be surprised” by.

The true value of this study, if any, is in 100 years time when some psychology PhD student will be able to complete an extra paragraph on the 6th dimensional flexibility of human rationalization and confirmation bias.

Busted climate models can literally prove anything. The more busted they are, the better.

More sensitive climates are more variable climates

University of Exeter

A decade without any global warming is more likely to happen if the climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide emissions, new research has revealed.

A decade without warming is even more likely to happen if CO2 is irrelevant. Did the experts forget to mention that?

A team of scientists from the University of Exeter and the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology in the UK has conducted pioneering new research into why both surges and slowdowns of warming take place.

Using sophisticated climate models the team, led by PhD student Femke Nijsse, discovered if the climate was more sensitive to COconcentration also displayed larger variations of warming over a decade.

When combined with information from simulations without any carbon dioxide increases, the authors were able to assess the natural variability of each climate model.

Thus they calculated the natural variability of an imaginary world.

The research is published this week in Nature Climate Change.

Femke Nijsse, from the University of Exeter, said: “We were surprised to see that even when we took into account that sensitive climate models warm more over the last decades of the 20th century, these sensitive models were still more likely to have short periods of cooling.”

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