JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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42% of US adults don’t want to pay even $12 a year to stop climate change

This is the devastating question few surveyors are willing to ask. Survey teams usually use mindless motherhood questions instead, like whether we “believe” in climate change. (Who doesn’t?) Or they ask if we want clean energy… (doh, like I want my energy dirty?) But the  Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago and The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research actually did a nationally representative poll of 1097 adults.

Everyone wants a nice climate, but hardly anyone wants to pay for it:

When asked whether they would support a monthly fee on their electric bill to combat climate change, 42 percent of respondents are unwilling to pay even $1. Twenty-nine percent would pay $20, an amount roughly equivalent to what the federal government estimates the damages from climate change would be on each household. And, 20 percent indicate they are willing to pay $50 per month. Party affiliation is the main determinant of how much people are willing to pay, not education, income, or geographic location. Democrats are consistently willing to pay more than Republicans.

The answer has flummoxed  people. Sam Ori in the Wall St Journal can’t make sense of it:

This is despite the fact that  a whopping 77% said they think climate change is happening and 65% think it is a problem the government should do something about.

This is an upside-down result. The best available science tells us that Americans should be willing to pay considerably more, because the damages from climate change are so great…

He thinks that people don’t see this as a threat to themselves personally. But the answer is mostly within the survey, at Q20 which basically asks if people are confident that greenhouse gas obligations will be met. Fully 31% of people don’t think the US will reduce emissions, and two thirds don’t think India or China will.  So who wants to pay for something that is likely to fail?

They didn’t go on to ask how many people thought that windmills or carbon markets would cool the planet. The answer to that would scare the pants of the lobbyists, and blow the whole charade. The real story is that everyone wants a nicer climate, but most people know it’s a waste of money. That’s why this is a dead topic in the election.

INFO: Energy and Climate Change in the 2016 Election

Keep reading  →

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BREAKING Nicolas Sarkozy, former President of France now climate skeptic, will run again

President Nicolas Sarcozy

Nicolas Sarcozy

This is big. The French press today is full of stories on the former President Nicolas Sarkozy “coming out as a skeptic”. He’s running again for President, and can see the ocean of votes in speaking out against political correctness.   Sarcozy will have watched the rise of Marine Le Pen and of Donald Trump. The game has changed.

Pandering to the Global Bullies no longer works. Once the fear of being called a “climate denier” is gone, there is nothing to stop half of the political divide from a phase change. (Well, nothing at least apart from lobbying, donations and gifts from the $1.5 Trillion dollar Green Machine). The Brexit shock spreads. Democracy is not dead yet.   — Hat tips to Phillip and to Benoît. ROM.

French voters will get a real choice:

Sarkozy comes out of the closet as a climate skeptic

Presidential hopeful Nicolas Sarkozy reckons that climate change is not caused by man and that the world has far bigger problems on its hands than global warming.

Nicolas Sarkozy, who is fighting to regain the presidency that he lost to François Hollande in 2012, has finally come out of the closet as a climate skeptic.

Speaking in front of business leaders Sarkozy, a candidate for Les Republicains party primary in November, told them that man alone was not to blame for climate change.

“Climate has been changing for four billion years,” the former president said according to AFP. “Sahara has become a desert, it isn’t because of industry. You need to be as arrogant as men are to believe we changed the climate.”

 

RFI French Press Review
Is Nicolas Sarkozy turning into Donald Trump?

The former French president who hopes to win the right-wing nomination for another shot at the top job has already shown himself adept at Trump’s populist game, playing communities off against one another in his own interest. Yesterday, Sarko was speaking to French business leaders and he said that it was simply arrogant to claim that the human race was responsible for climate change. “The climate has been changing for four billion years,” said the Republican leader, “but it wasn’t industry that turned the Sahara into a desert.”

Sarkozy told his audience that, in fact, population growth is a far more serious threat to the planet than pollution. “There’ll be 11 billion of us in a few years. Man is directly responsible. But nobody takes any interest,” he went on to say.

Back in 2007, Sarkozy assured a different audience that “we have to have the courage to define our policies while recognising that we cannot ignore the climate challenge, unless we want to destroy the very conditions upon which human survival depends.”

 

Keep reading  →

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History rewritten, Global Cooling from 1940 – 1970, an 83% consensus, 285 papers being “erased”

The Global Cooling Scare of the 1970s was real, there was a consensus, and it was all over the media. It flies in the face of the man-made warming campaign. After World War II there was a massive industrial escalation in the West. And just as coal fired power was going in everywhere, the world damnwell cooled by -0.3°C. It’s obvious that the modern Climate Witches don’t want people bringing this up.

1970s, Global Cooling, Graph.

Where’s that cooling gone? The modern NASA GISS dataset adjusted it away:

NASA, Giss, Global Temperatures, Graph, 2016.

What happened to 40 years of cooling from WWII onewards?

That’s the magic of homogenisation.

In 2008,  Peterson, Connolley, and Fleck published “The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus” . The Myth paper “found” that from 1965 through 1979, there were only 7 cooling, 20 neutral, and 44 warming papers. It was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), showing how pathetically weak the caliber of review is there. Kenneth Richard searched, found and documents 220 papers, not 7 in the same period. He estimates there are probably many more.

The Connolley there is none other than the  William Connolly who abused Wikipedia’s editing rules — barred 2,000 other Wiki editors that he disagreed with, and changed over 5,000 articles to conform with his personal warming religion and his Greens political activism. Apparently he’s used the same flagrant bias in the peer review literature. Wiki took away his Admin status, which appears to be a higher standard than AMS. So much for “peer review”.

It’s all on NoTricksZone where he finds 285 papers from the 1960s-’80s that reveal the Global Cooling Scientific ‘Consensus’.

It was the “prevailing view” in Stewart and Glantz, 1985:

“in the early 1970s the prevailing view was that the earth was moving toward a new ice age. Many articles appeared in the scientific literature as well as in the popular press speculating about the impact on agriculture of a 1-2°C cooling. ”

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Grin! William Briggs killer application for New York Times Climate Editor role

William M. Briggs would be the smartest, funniest and best informed Climate Editor the New York Times ever had. He’d put the Times back on the map as the frontline of debate. As such, there is no way he will get this job (and this is a real application). He’s the perfect candidate — the Statistician to the Stars has published actual papers on climate models, uncertainty, and yet also writes with wit and humor.

Guys like William are the reason the new media is killing the old.

A few snippets here, the whole letter at Brigg’s Blog http://wmbriggs.com:

New York Times Is Looking For A Climate Change Editor. That’s Me!

It is the Times’s tremendous luck that I’m at liberty, ready, and willing to take on this monumental task. Together we can screw people’s heads back on straight and get them to worry about something really important. Like the rise of politics dictating science and the corrupting influence of money.

I am an actual bona fide scientist. I have published actual articles in the Journal of Climate, among many others. My specialty is in the value and goodness of models, and the expense and badness of bad science. I’ve written a best-seller (my mom bought two copies) on the subject. Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics. I know this is a presumptuous questions, but if I get the job can I get this reviewed in the Book Review? Might boost sales.

How can they knock this back?

We’d run this headline: “Wonderful News: Global-Warming-Of-Doom Proved Almost Surely False”.

I envision a series in which we expose the schemers, hangers-on, band-waggoners, activists, fund-raisers, self-deluded, egos (I almost said “politicians”, which would have been redundant), and even frauds and bamboozlers whose claimed knowledge of fluid physics on a rotating sphere is as artificial as that thing perched on Donald Trump’s cranium. Let’s call out these folks who have turned “climate change” into an unhealthy living.

How many times have we heard psychologists, sociologists, philosophers, economists, and other un-trained scientifically ignorant (I use this word in its technical sense) academics lecture us on the horrors that await us under “climate change” when they wouldn’t know a cloud parameterization from a sigma coordinate? I’ll tell you: too often.

I predict the Editors of the Times will continue to cower behind petty namecalling, will fear doing anything socially risky, and will miss this opportunity to beat the rise of the new media.

h/t to Willie Soon, and Paul Driessen

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Malcolm Roberts, a polished punchy senate speech

In his maiden speech as a new Senator, Malcolm Roberts looks sharp, stands tall, and fires his words precisely, and articulately. He oozes determination.

He’s put in long hours for years to be there and he knows exactly why he’s there. James Jeffrey in The Australian described it as “impassioned”, delivered with “the pyrotechnic power of his larynx”:

Roberts gave a speech that left even his leader, Pauline Hanson, with big shoes to fill. He quoted John Cleese, former US president Andrew Jackson and Banjo Paterson, and compared himself to Socrates. Climate change was boomingly dismissed as “a scam”.

His remarks on climate science are in the first ten minutes: Roberts strength is his reasoning — his focus on cause and effect. He’s right to draw attention to the failed predictions of Flannery and Karoly; he’s right to talk about the pause, and the cooling from WWII to the late 70s.

He’s right to question the sacred institutions like the BOM and their inexplicable and unreplicatable adjustments.

He’s right to keep asking for the data that shows that human use of hydrocarbon fuels affects the climate. Its 2,447 days since I asked if there was any evidence. To save the planet, you’d think one person would have emailed it.

Malcolm has been in the trenches of the carbon wars. At the start he thanks many familiar names, like the late great Bob Carter, and Ian Plimer. And it’s nice to see recognition to a lot of fellow volunteers — some of whom are dedicated at achieving things behind the scenes, yet rarely get a public thank you.

POST NOTE:

Some great lines in his speech, which are setting the twitter-sphere on fire —

“The biggest purchase of our life is not our home, it’s government.

“We work Monday to mid-morning Thursday for the government.”

Australia’s values and way of life are also at risk from insidious institutions such as the unelected swill that is the United Nations.

The people of the United Kingdom recently spoke and I have great admiration for the way they broke free of that socialist monolithic monster, the European Union. The EU is a template for total socialist domination of Europe through unelected bodies such as the IMF forcing their frightening agenda on the people. It is also the UN’s template and Australia must leave the UN, we need an Aus-exit.

We once thought we were a poor nation, when we were actually rich. Sadly, we now think we’re a rich nation, yet we are becoming poor. Instead of no nation, we must have one nation.

The Greens Senators rudely refused to get up and congratulate the new Senator as is the custom. Some called that a snub, but for Malcolm their petty bad-manners would be a reward — a badge of honor. As he says on Twitter: “If I upset the Greens, then I hit the target”.

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Australian temperatures unchanged for 20 years: Plus Malcolm Roberts first Senate speech is tomorrow

Malcolm Roberts will give his maiden Senate speech tomorrow (Tuesday) at 5pm at the Australian Parliament House in Canberra. To reserve seating contact Leon Ashby leon.ashby AT aph.gov.au or phone (02) 6277 3151. He has asked for updated graphs of the UAH data for Australia. His speech may be available via the APH website. (h/t Jim S)

Luckily for us the UAH satellite database can be filtered to track temperatures in the lower troposphere over the Australian land mass. Thanks to John Christy for providing an Australian specific dataset.

We’ve put out a third of all the CO2 homosapiens has ever made in the last 20 years, and it apparently has made no meaningful difference to temperatures here. We’ve put out 60% of all our CO2 since the satellite record began.

Here is the full Australian monthly data from 1979 – now for all seasons graphed below. There are breathless news articles hyping every hot month, every hot week, for records in every little region, and even for a single record hot nights, but no press release to say that temperatures in Australia have not really changed in a meaningful way since 1995.

Thanks to  KensKingdom for regular updates to the UAH series and calculations of “the pause” in regions all over the world.

Australian UAH LT Temperatures, lower troposphere, satellite, 2016. Graph.

 

The Australian UAH data covers land but not ocean, Tasmania, but not PNG or Indonesia. It’s really quite useful recording that operates continuously day and night, measuring the temperature of the air from the ground to about 8km up. It is not the same as what the BOM measures on the ground, but in theory, according to the climate models, the troposphere should warm faster than the ground. (That’s very central to the amplification of effect of CO2, it is the missing hot spot, the fingerprint of CO2).

The BOM data is below (be aware it covers a different time period starting in 1910.)

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Line up the free cars on the frontline of the climate change war

An apt caption:

PHOTO: The low-lying islands of the Pacific are on the frontline of the fight against climate change. (ABC News: Chris Uhlmann)

It seems an expensive way to stop tsunami’s.

Still, if you have to run for the not so low-lying hills in the background, perhaps the shiny black sea-walls might  still be useful.

But this is what it’s all about. Pacific Islanders play the game, speak the fear, and admonish those who don’t buy them enough goodies. The Chinese heroes offer nice cars and a sports centre. (That’ll really slow the seas and save the corals).

Turnbull turns up to give away $80 million extra dollars of other people’s money, the islanders seem happy, and he is nearly sorta forgiven by the ABC.

It’s hard not to be afraid of climate change when you get free cars.

Australia could still win hearts at climate change forum — ABC

Nearby stood a shiny new fleet of MG SUVs, gifted by China to Micronesia to ferry about the leaders and assorted dignitaries from the forum’s 16 countries.

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Weekend Unthreaded

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Obama may give control of the internet to the UN. And for What?

Someone needs to manage the Internet, and come September 30, no one is quite sure who will be. Sounds bizarre –  an entity worth millions?

Once upon a time, a guy called Jon Postel managed the Net (all the domain names) but he died in 1998 and that job went to ICANN (the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers). Since 1998, that’s been a part of the US Dept of Commerce. They get to decide who gets to use all the dot-somethings (eg, .com, .au, .cpa). ICANN can award them to groups or run an auction and pocket that cash.  It is a monopoly, and there are conflicts there. The contract with the Dept of Commerce expires on Sept 30. In a normal world you’d expect the superpower-in-charge to roll that one over unless there was a big payoff for letting it go, or a foreign army on the beaches.

If the US government isn’t in control of ICANN, it can’t run as a separate monopoly thanks to US antitrust laws. So immediately ICANN is set “free” it will need to find a government to adopt it, so it has exemption from anti-trust laws (and more to the point, so it is accountable to something). But when it comes to government, there are a lot of bad choices.  The obvious choice is you-know-what, the global bureaucracy that isn’t elected, and never gets held to account. Come October 1 this year (a mere three weeks away) the UN may get control over… the internet. Scary? I think so.

An Internet Giveaway to the U.N.

The only thing worse than a monopoly overseen by the U.S. government is a monopoly overseen by no one—or by a Web-censoring U.N. Congress still has time to extend its ban on the Obama administration giving up protection of the internet. Icann has given it every reason to do so.

The Wall Street Journal reported that apparently the Obama administration has no plan for what happens to ICANN on October 1. That seems hard to believe…

Without the U.S. contract, Icann would seek to be overseen by another governmental group so as to keep its antitrust exemption. Authoritarian regimes have already proposed Icann become part of the U.N. to make it easier for them to censor the internet globally. So much for the Obama pledge that the U.S. would never be replaced by a “government-led or an inter-governmental organization solution.”

Rick Manning, president of Americans for Limited Government, called it “simply stunning” that the “politically blinded Obama administration missed the obvious point that Icann loses its antitrust shield should the government relinquish control.”

The other side of the debate is also at The Wall St Journal: Who will oversee the Internet. Gautham Nagesh argues that it’s no big deal, the UN won’t get control, and we should relax and be calm. But I didn’t find this soothing:

Mr. Larry Strickling [head of Commerce Dept] said he’s confident that a solution can be reached; the implication is that the U.S. is not going to back out unless it’s sure another government-led organization isn’t going to take its place.

So three weeks to go, and we’ll be protected by Larry’s sense of “sure-ness”?

And if it’s not the UN, it will still be “like” the UN — global, unaccountable and prone to corruption. Think IOC. Think FIFA.

The U.N. could filter and vet,
Those who challenge their views on the Net,
As with text-books, revised,
For the youth, sanitized,
To remove any skeptical threat.

    — Ruairi

But Why?

The part of the equation that doesn’t make sense to me is why the US would give this up. What’s the US getting in return? This below, is the best answer I could find. If this is it, we’re in deep trouble:

So why is this happening? Couldn’t they just leave things the way they were? The main goal is to reassure other countries that the U.S. isn’t secretly controlling the structure of the Internet. To the extent American businesses have been damaged by the Edward Snowden disclosures, especially those offering cloud and other online services, this is a move aimed at repairing the relationship between the U.S. and other countries on Internet issues.

Make no mistake, this is a concession by the U.S. While the Commerce Department rarely intervened publicly in ICANN’s affairs, the implicit threat of its ability to do so will be gone. That could have an unforeseen impact in the future, particularly if cyberweapons continue to play a larger role in military and counter-intelligence activities.

Apparently the US is making this big concession to earn symbolic brownie points in the reassurance and relationships stakes. It sounds a lot like paying billions to try to change the weather. Symbolic.

For those opposing the overreach of Big Government, our best asset is free speech — The Internet. As long as we have the Net, we can fight back.

Senator Ted Cruz “slams Obama” and set up a page: Don’t let Obama Give Away The Internet.

The US Congress may still be able to stop this:

Keep reading  →

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