JoNova

A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).


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Dinosaurs wiped out by … Darkness and Cold

Now this is climate change. If you can believe this study, wow:

“In the tropics, annual mean temperature fell from 27 to 5 degrees Celsius”

And we worry about a warming of one degree in a century.

“It became cold, I mean, really cold,” says Brugger. Global annual mean surface air temperature dropped by at least 26 degrees Celsius. The dinosaurs were used to living in a lush climate. After the asteroid’s impact, the annual average temperature was below freezing point for about 3 years. Evidently, the ice caps expanded. Even in the tropics, annual mean temperatures went from 27 degrees to mere 5 degrees. “The long-term cooling caused by the sulfate aerosols was much more important for the mass extinction than the dust that stays in the atmosphere for only a relatively short time. It was also more important than local events like the extreme heat close to the impact, wildfires or tsunamis,” says co-author Georg Feulner who leads the research team at PIK. It took the climate about 30 years to recover, the scientists found.

The real threats are not fertilizer and balmy weather, but rocks from space, and cold, cold, cold…

How the darkness and the cold killed the dinosaurs

Keep reading  →

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Wastebook 2016: PORKemon Go — US Gov burns $5b on stuff like payments with peanuts

Porkemon Wastebook 2017

Who knew the US government accepted loan repayments in peanuts? And what happens to the $74 million dollars worth of peanuts that come in? They could pay politicians with it…

Other waste identified by Senator Flake  in Wastebook: PORKémon Go, includes a study that found girls are more likely to play with Barbie dolls than boys are. Nearly $2m was spent on holograms of dead comedians. The IRS, not so surprisingly, says the IRS doesn’t waste tax dollars. Flake points out they spend $12m on an email archiving service in 2014 that they never even installed.

If the US government spent $12 million on using the sun to model the climate instead, it would be about 0.1% of what they’ve spent on models driven by CO2 which still don’t work after 20 years of tweaking.

Public relations and advertising amounted to a total of $1.4 billion.  US national Debt is nearly $20 trillion.

Press Release

Among the 50 examples of egregious federal spending uncovered in Flake’s 2017 report are a program that accepts peanuts for loan repayments, a computer that binge-watches Desperate Housewives, and a study into what happens when you put a fish on a treadmill.

Highlights from Flake’s 2017 edition of Wastebook include (click links to view related footage and other content):

Read the National Enquirer or download the PDF. Weep. Be glad someone is tracking this.

h/t Willie S

 

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A Socratic approach on climate change

Socratic Adverti, Climate Change, Global Warming, The Australia. The Climate Group.

(Click for the full advert)

The Climate Study Group is trying a new approach with an Advert in The Australian on page 7 today. Or rather, you might say this is a very old approach…:

Socrates
Nice to meet you Mr Smith. I hear you are very concerned about dangerous global warming.

Mr Smith
Yes, we are facing an alarming prospect of a global warming catastrophe.

Socrates
What gives you such concern?

Mr Smith
Emissions of CO2 from burning fossil fuels.

Socrates
How were these fossil fuels formed?

Mr Smith
Various plant forms grew, died and formed fossil fuels before and during the Carboniferous Period.

Socrates
Was there dangerous global warming prior to the Carboniferous Period?

Mr Smith
No. There’s no evidence of dangerous global warming prior to the Carboniferous period.

Socrates
So where did the carbon in fossil fuels originate?

Mr Smith
Plants absorbed CO2 from the atmosphere prior to the formation of fossil fuels.

Socrates
So the CO2 absorbed by plants is now being released from burning fossil fuels.

Mr Smith
It must be so.

Socrates
You have observed there was no dangerous global warming prior to CO2 being absorbed to form fossil
fuels, so how could the same CO2 now being released cause dangerous global warming?

Mr Smith
I find the implication of your question provocative and disturbing. You should know there is a move to bring charges against you for corrupting youth with your philosophical questions.

Socrates
I am well aware that people are disturbed by my philosophical enquiries which reveal the truth with compelling logic and facts which refute long held beliefs. Our conversation has been no exception.

Mr Smith
I have to go now.

 _________________________________________

Socratic Adverti, Climate Change, Global Warming, The Australia. The Climate Group.

Cue believers now telling us that the Sun has dimmed, don’t we know, therefore even though the world was warmer 7,000 years ago, and 130,000 years ago and 250,000 years ago, etc etc, on and on,  for millions of years, this particular warming is “due to CO2″ and millions of other warmer years were due to “something else”.

Readers will no doubt be able to think of other Socratic approaches. :- )

UPDATE:

Alarmists have caused a malaise,
In our world, by their daft climate craze,
But their angst demagogic,
Could be cured by the logic,
And wisdom of old Socrates.

 – Ruairi

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Angus Campbell, Chief of The Australian Army, “planet may become uninhabitable in many places”

David Archibald writes” From some sort of parallel universe, this is part of a speech given by the Chief of Army, as in Australia’s army.

Campbell appears to be completely duped by the weather-doctors — not the kind of gullible guy you’d put in charge of heavy machinery (and y’know, national security):

For the first time in mankind’s history our planet may become unsuitable for habitation in many of the places where large populations presently live. The Climate Change Institute at the Australian National University (ANU) asserts; changes would be irreversible on the time scale of human civilisation and would dramatically change the planet as we know it.

This is an unprecedented problem – the global population and its actions are bumping up hard against the capacity of the planet to sustain us in the present form.

He appears to have done no minutes of cross-checking, just swallowed the academics and paparazzi opinions holus. Why fight the climate? Campbell’s reasoning amounts to saying that the US is doing climate stuff (Jo notes they were then, but they won’t be soon.). It’s not too good when the head of your army hasn’t figured out the big secret that half the US voters have. (ASIO – where are you?)

Campbell tells us the Commander of the Royal Fijian Forces thinks it’s worth doing, and so do a bunch of academics (though they can’t predict rainfall, drought, floods, sea ice, humidity, clouds, or much else. — Those references here).

If Campbell was a real leader, the one our army and nation deserves, he’d pop in and ask some of the top engineers and IT-guys in the ADF for a second opinion. If the climate was such a no-brainer threat, those brains would be the first to get it, instead, two thirds (or probably more now) are skeptics. Real scientists can spot the bluff when fake scientists rabbit on about consensuses, use tricks to hide declines, and find hot-spots they never said were missing. Not only does Campbell drink that kool-aid, he believes the economic models too — citing GDP predictions for 2100.

As it happens the speech was made in September, but nobody, except a guy called Anthony Bergin, noticed for three months. Bergin lavishly praised it in The Australian, and suggested our jets might run on eucalyptus oil. Seriously. “Scientists are close to using eucalyptus trees to develop renewable jet fuel.” Righto…

Tony Thomas found depressing news for the eucalyptus-powered-jets:

“ANU researcher Dr  Carston Kulheim suggests: “If we could plant 20 million hectares of eucalyptus species worldwide, which is currently the same amount that is planted for pulp and paper, we would be able to produce enough jet fuel for five per cent of the aviation industry.””

But at least 5% of the RAAF will be flying something anti-inflammatory, antispasmodic, and antibacterial.

Commenters at The Australian were 99% unfooled:

Justin Next there will be environmentally friendly bombs,..give us a break,…

Colin: What utter drivel, Anthony Bergin. I did 39 years in uniform and I’ve never heard such rubbish in my life.

Phillip: So I’m guessing the Chinese, Russian and Islamic milataries are just as concerned with climate change…….. well maybe not. Pure ridiculous dribble.

Brian: Just goes to prove how deeply “group think” has permeated the body politic. Memo to ruling class ….. GW/CC is a myth and its OK to be a “denier”. The proletariat now realise the green-emperor has no clothes which is just one of the reasons Trump is US President and not Hilary

Ian: Shouldn’t defence be focusing on gay marriage, domestic violence and ethical investing? Make you wonder what on earth its priorities are.

Tony Thomas expanded a lot more on the military-against-the-climate theme in Quadrant a couple of weeks ago.

 Obama declines to bomb an ISIS convoy because burning trucks will boost CO2 emissions … Australia’s defence wallahs fret about rising seas and drowning air bases …  alarmist ratbaggery distorts strategy and budgets. Military effectiveness has a new enemy: the climate-scam crowd.

– read it all at Warmism’s Martial Plan.

More of the Campbell speech below:

Lieutenant General Angus Campbell DSC, AM, opening address to the 2016 Chief of Army’s Exercise:

Unstable planet

The third order problem I will address is that of an unstable planet. The instability I refer to is global.  It is being caused by climate change associated with global warming.

I note Colonel Sapenafa Motufaga, the Commander Land Forces – Royal Fijian Military Forces, has agreed to speak to us in more depth about this serious issue in our plenary on, ‘The Indo-Pacific region in a global context’.

Keep reading  →

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The Conversation — cleansing skeptical thoughts — Read the banned comments here

Comment deletion at The Conversation

The Fake Conversation where Bill’s informative, polite comments are removed, but the replies are left there.

Last week Bill Johnston posted a detailed, comprehensive analysis of Sydney Observatory thermometer record here that shows that most of the warming recorded there is due to buildings and freeways. But photo’s and graphs are “denier” stuff, and The Conversation is so afraid some its readers might see those historic photos they ban links to Bill’s work and joannenova.com.au. Apparently when the Bureau of Meteorology discusses “Australia’s hottest decade” it is off topic to discuss the condition of their thermometers.

Bill Johnston was happy to defend his work in comments at The Conversation, but Blair Trewin, who wrote the post itself, was entirely absent. Cory Zanoni had to close the dangerous thread. He removed scores of comments, but left replies to Bill Johnston intact. Some “conversation”.

At least 46 of Bill Johnston’s comments were deleted from Australia’s climate in 2016 – a year of two halves as El Niño unwound   and 19 deleted from Australian climate politics in 2017: a guide for the perplexed. As Bill says: They obviously want to stay perplexed; uninformed; scary-cats, without a paddle for their leaky canoe.

Some skeptics will say “don’t bother writing comments there” — but that is exactly what The Conversation editors appear to want, so don’t! It’s a fake conversation when half the views get censored. Copy your most informative, considerate comments and put them here so the world can see what The Fake Conversation is afraid of. Tax dollars were used to set up a site that appears to be non-stop advertising for the academic grants machine. A lot of the contributors are funded by tax dollars, and the site is still supported by universities which also get tax dollars. Unless the Conversation allows dissenting voices the Liberal Coalition are crazy to let it get away with being a propaganda outlet for “Big-Gov”. Let it run on private funding and donations.

Bill may have set a new record for censorship at The Conversation. He wrote to me yesterday with this (examples of the hot and banned comments are below).

Jo,

Here are their community standards. The truly wonderful thing about this particular post, is that its Author, acclaimed Bureau climate scientist Dr. Blair Trewin didn’t come near the thing. The outcome is entirely embarrassing for Trewin, the Bureau, the Minister and the politics of climate change generally. It is also embarrassing for those associated with the Technical Advisory Forum, who could not be bothered researching any data.

Homogenisation has an interesting history. While there are reasons to adjust data to account for weather station moves and other discontinuities, the way it is done assures that if suitable trends exist they are preserved in some form; if they don’t, they become implanted by the process. Unfortunately, historical records are poorly documented and researching their history like I’ve been doing is tedious work. (Try getting a research grant LOL).

Staff working in the Sydney Weather Bureau office would notice that the site moved from the northeast to the southeast corner of the cottage yard in 1949; that the Cahill Expressway opened in 1958; that the 1.8m high brick wall was built in 1972/3; later that instruments moved to a relocated single large screen (possibly around 1974); and that the large screen is replaced by a small one in 2000.

The default position with homogenisation is that if data changes are not explained by metadata (or someone forgets what happened), they are due to the climate; which as a fall-back position is absurd. Combined with opening of the Cahill Expressway, the 1949 step-change is the one the professors tell us evidences “unprecedented climate warming in the latter half of the 20th century”. The 1973, brick wall, caused accelerated warming; while moving sensitive instruments to  the small screen caused increased frequency of extremes and trends in extremes. The story is absolute bollocks.

While the girls and boys over at the Conservation lap it up and in obnoxious haste slap down anyone or any evidence that challenges their fantasies; Blair Trewin is missing in action.

The real significance of undocumented changes at the Observatory site, is that although data are not used directly to estimate Australia’s warming; the homogenisation process spreads the embedded faults far and wide. Potentially, they infect ACORN data as far away as Alice Springs (via Tibooburra).

Many sites have undocumented faults that are detected statistically then carefully researched. Homogenists prefer to tell the data what changed and then invent an adjustment using other data that are not homogeneous. Homogenisation of Williamtown RAAF involves numerous datasets that are faulty; same for iconic sites such as Broome, Laverton RAAF; Alice Springs; Mount Gambier; Geraldton; Melbourne; Rockhampton; Launceston. Across Australia no data are useful for detecting unambiguous climate-related temperature trends.

The whole thing is a carefully contrived myth which should be openly investigated (and not by the CSIRO).

Cheers,

Bill

—————————————————————–

Comments The Conversation don’t want you to see

Claims are made by the Bureau, that Sydney has just experienced its hottest ever year.

There is indisputable photographic evidence available in the public domain, that the Stevenson screen was moved to a more exposed position within the enclosure in front of the cottage in 1949. This caused minimum temperature to step-up (not trend, but step).

It is unarguable that the Cahill Expressway opened in 1958. This caused warm air to wash-over the site; Tmax stepped up abruptly in 1958.

Photographs also show a brick wall was built immediately south, and within metres of the relocated screens, most probably in 1972; possibly 1973. Tmin stepped-up indicating the wall trapped heat within the enclosure, which is not dissipated by advection to the local atmosphere, or radiation to space during the night.

A Bureau publication confirms that a small screen replaced the former large one in 2000. Both Tmax and Tmin stepped-up. The small screen is more sensitive to transient heat eddies, than the large screen and the sensor is more sensitive to slight temperature changes, than thermometers.

Google Earth shows vegetation close to the site (trees etc) were removed in 2006; which is also confirmed by site metadata (Page 7 vs. P.8), causing an abrupt increase in exposure to the east; which of course warms the site. Since 2006, the site has been kept fairly clear, except that there is now a hedge along the front fence, which matches the one on the western (cottage) side of the enclosure.

With those changes NOT adjusted-for by homogenisation (which can be verified by the ACORN adjustments file), how can it be that:

Claims are made by the Bureau, that Sydney has just experienced its hottest ever year?

That is a fair question; Blair Trewin is the homogenisation expert; he should be in a position to answer.

Claims are not extraordinary. Evidence, which is in the public domain, is presented in my essay at Jo Nova’s site. (I offered to do an article here once!) I deny being a denier (whatever that is);

I am an open-minded scientist asking a reasonable question.

As you say Ben:
“ When you ask a genuine question, you’ll see people make an effort to answer it – which is one of the great positives of this site.”

Cheers,

Dr. Bill

(Zap …

Keep reading  →

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Wind turbine manufacturer admits liability for noise damage. If word gets out…

Wind turbines made by Enercon which admits liability for noise damage

These are Enercon wind turbines in Germany, Lower Saxony. Image: Philip May

This could be a watershed — if word gets out that turbine manufacturers will not even contest claims of noise damage, there could be many more claims around the world. There are rumors these cases are often settled out of court with confidentiality agreements, but who would know?

In an update to the Irish court case we discussed last month, the latest news confirms that the wind turbine manufacturer has admitted liability without contesting it. The court will be deciding damages in April. As I deduced at the time, the wind industry was using desperate wordsmithing to minimize attention on the story. The news item related to it even disappeared from the Irish Examiner.  The turbine industry must be hoping no one notices this story.

Stop These Things has an update:

Wind company admits nuisance damage to neighbours
Irish Farmers Journal
Paul Mooney
5 January 2017

High Court to determine compensation for seven families in April hearing.

Keep reading  →

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Your car causes salmonella and other funny global warmy stories

It’s another warmy story:

Worst year in NSW for Salmonella, E.Coli as global temperatures increase

NSW recorded its worst figures in at least five years for diseases caused by food poisoning and mosquito bites, as doctors warn climate change is looming as a public health emergency.

Statistics released last week show 2016 was the worst year on record for diseases including legionnaires’ disease, salmonellosis, listeriosis, E. coli and dengue fever, which flourish in warmer conditions.

--Harriet Alexander, Sydney Morning Herald

More scary than 4000 cases of salmonella is the state of intellectual rigor among medico-unions:

The Royal Australasian College of Physicians [RACP] has released a position paper that described climate change as a “global public health emergency”.

The RACP called for a national climate and health strategy and reduced emissions of greenhouse gases.

With reasoning like that, they could make a lot more people very sick. Are they advocating we use solar panels to stop salmonella?

There has hardly been any warming in the last 20 years anyhow. And if we are doing cosmic epidemiology, so far global warming seems to come with longer lifespans, health, wealth, food, and less polio.

It’s likely that climate change will make you throw up, but it won’t be gastroenteritis. Salmonella is spread through bad food handling –  by mixing up a bit of manure with dinner, say. (Wash your hands. Wash your salad. Wash. your. hands).

Coincidentally, on Jan 5th, researchers announced that hot weather didn’t make any difference to salmonella stats. So much for that theory:

Hot weather not to blame for salmonella on egg farms

New research conducted by the University of Adelaide shows there is no greater risk of Salmonella contamination in the production of free range eggs in Australia due to hot summer weather, compared with other seasons.

The findings are further evidence that the hygiene around egg handling in the supply chain and in household and restaurant kitchens is critical to reducing food poisoning from eggs.

People need to wash their hands.

The big question then, do we cripple the economy to solve this one, or give out bars of soap and teach people why it matters?

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Richard Lindzen: Axe climate science funding. Groupthink has destroyed intellectual foundations.

How things change. This article has a straightforward tenor, asks questions of both sides of the climate debate and discusses whether skeptics might finally be given a seat at the government funded table (so to speak). It’s so blandly normal in tone it is a bit wildly rare! (Almost like real journalism?) How often do we see Judith Curry and Michael Mann in the same article as Bjorn Lomborg and Will Happer?

Most skeptics are optimistic that the Global Freeze on skeptical scientists may be finally coming to an end. But not Richard Lindzen, the carefully spoken man, with decades of experience, who lets loose…

Skeptical Climate Scientists Coming In From the Cold

Richard Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT and a member of the National Academy of Sciences who has long questioned climate change orthodoxy, is skeptical that a sunnier outlook is upon us.

“I actually doubt that,” he said. Even if some of the roughly $2.5 billion in taxpayer dollars currently spent on climate research across 13 different federal agencies now shifts to scientists less invested in the calamitous narrative, Lindzen believes groupthink has so corrupted the field that funding should be sharply curtailed rather than redirected.

“They should probably cut the funding by 80 to 90 percent until the field cleans up,” he said. “Climate science has been set back two generations, and they have destroyed its intellectual foundations.”

Spot the unskeptical scientist:
Fake, Poseur Scientist

Keep reading  →

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Weekend Unthreaded

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One third of human emissions and no warming, plus the unholy pursuit of a pause busting paper

For most of this year 2016 was expected to break the 1998  record (which was the hottest year in the UAH satellite data set). But a sudden drop in Dec pulled the yearly average down so that statistically they are indistinguishable.

From one big El Nino year to another big El Nino, we’ve put out one third of all human emissions that have ever been put out since hunter gatherers wandered the steppes, but it appears to have made very little difference.

Thanks to Roy Spencer and global satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998

The top five years in the 38 year satellite record

RANK YEAR deg.C.
01    2016    +0.50
02    1998    +0.48
03    2010    +0.34
04    2015    +0.26
05    2002    +0.22

Does it mean much? Not a heck of a lot. The pause was already long enough to show the models don’t work, and whether or not 2016 was another record is neither here nor there, except as a PR point.

Keep reading  →

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