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	<title>Comments for JoNova: Science, carbon, climate and tax</title>
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	<description>Tackling tribal groupthink</description>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by Ken Stewart</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-198</link>
		<dc:creator>Ken Stewart</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 04:06:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-198</guid>
		<description>R. Gates
&lt;blockquote&gt;It should be noted that for the period from May 1, 2011 through April 30, 2012, it was the warmest 12 month period on instrument record for both the troposphere and oceans down to 2000 meters.&quot;&lt;/blockquote&gt;
This is just the sort of unreferenced statement which pricks up my skeptical interest.  I don&#039;t know about the oceans to 2,000m, which have only been accurately measured for the past few years, however I do know about the troposphere.  I wish I could insert an image here, but I&#039;ll just have to quote the figures from UAH anomalies which you can find at http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt&lt;/a&gt;. 
The 12 month mean to April 30 is +0.17, which is the same as it was in April 2002.  The 12 month mean has fluctuated up and down above and below this since then, reaching its highest in October 2010 (+0.43)which was equal to October, November, and December 1998.  2010 and 1998 were during El Nino events.  So it was NOT the warmest 12 month period in the instrument record.  Please get your facts right and ensure they can be checked by giving references.  Besides, the record shows evidence of warming, but NOT the cause of the warming.
Ken</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>R. Gates</p>
<blockquote><p>It should be noted that for the period from May 1, 2011 through April 30, 2012, it was the warmest 12 month period on instrument record for both the troposphere and oceans down to 2000 meters.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>This is just the sort of unreferenced statement which pricks up my skeptical interest.  I don&#8217;t know about the oceans to 2,000m, which have only been accurately measured for the past few years, however I do know about the troposphere.  I wish I could insert an image here, but I&#8217;ll just have to quote the figures from UAH anomalies which you can find at <a href="http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt" rel="nofollow">http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt</a>.<br />
The 12 month mean to April 30 is +0.17, which is the same as it was in April 2002.  The 12 month mean has fluctuated up and down above and below this since then, reaching its highest in October 2010 (+0.43)which was equal to October, November, and December 1998.  2010 and 1998 were during El Nino events.  So it was NOT the warmest 12 month period in the instrument record.  Please get your facts right and ensure they can be checked by giving references.  Besides, the record shows evidence of warming, but NOT the cause of the warming.<br />
Ken</p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by Doug Proctor</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-197</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Proctor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 04:02:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-197</guid>
		<description>When Schmidt agrees that the hotspot does not exist, I&#039;ll believe that CAGW theory actually considers the &quot;hotspot&quot; to be important.

CAGW is the strangest &quot;science&quot; story I&#039;ve ever heard.  It holds correlations sacrosanct and observations, not terribly useful.  It picks its own important criteria, and gives all benefit of the doubt, i.e. the truth of assumptions, to CAGW.  Warming causes cold, more or less precipitation, less or more regional differences.

Could we ever get Schmidt to discuss this?  Otherwise we are like the minister preaching to the choir.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When Schmidt agrees that the hotspot does not exist, I&#8217;ll believe that CAGW theory actually considers the &#8220;hotspot&#8221; to be important.</p>
<p>CAGW is the strangest &#8220;science&#8221; story I&#8217;ve ever heard.  It holds correlations sacrosanct and observations, not terribly useful.  It picks its own important criteria, and gives all benefit of the doubt, i.e. the truth of assumptions, to CAGW.  Warming causes cold, more or less precipitation, less or more regional differences.</p>
<p>Could we ever get Schmidt to discuss this?  Otherwise we are like the minister preaching to the choir.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by Why Global Warming really is a load of hot air &#124; Australian TEA Party</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-181</link>
		<dc:creator>Why Global Warming really is a load of hot air &#124; Australian TEA Party</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 02:34:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-181</guid>
		<description>[...] it all here and please note the number of references and the quality of the discussions and [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] it all here and please note the number of references and the quality of the discussions and [...]</p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by handjive</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-173</link>
		<dc:creator>handjive</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 02:28:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-173</guid>
		<description>Hotspots?

Time to go to the video for the &lt;em&gt;&#039;latest&#039;&lt;/em&gt; climate science from the Climate (C)ommission &lt;a href=&quot;http://climatecommission.gov.au/events/?event_id=28&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;Community Forum at Parramatta RSL, 15 May 2012&lt;/a&gt;.

Prof. Will Steffen video presentation begins  @ 7.20 mins.  
~ cO2 greenhouse radiation explanation @ 9.45 mins.

Note @ 18.10, Flannery states the amount of money spent world wide on &#039;clean energy&#039;: &lt;strong&gt;$263 Billion!&lt;/strong&gt; 

Informed folks will spot the myriad of information deliberately avoided in this q&amp;a, (granted, time is limited) 

Some viewers might like the exchange between Steffen &amp; audience when he claims scepticism is based on &#039;belief&#039;. Begins @ 34.0 minute with Flannery claiming &#039;&lt;a href=&quot;http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=SeNDSeknn_c#!&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;the truth&lt;/a&gt;&#039; will eventually come out.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hotspots?</p>
<p>Time to go to the video for the <em>&#8216;latest&#8217;</em> climate science from the Climate (C)ommission <a href="http://climatecommission.gov.au/events/?event_id=28" rel="nofollow">Community Forum at Parramatta RSL, 15 May 2012</a>.</p>
<p>Prof. Will Steffen video presentation begins  @ 7.20 mins.<br />
~ cO2 greenhouse radiation explanation @ 9.45 mins.</p>
<p>Note @ 18.10, Flannery states the amount of money spent world wide on &#8216;clean energy&#8217;: <strong>$263 Billion!</strong> </p>
<p>Informed folks will spot the myriad of information deliberately avoided in this q&amp;a, (granted, time is limited) </p>
<p>Some viewers might like the exchange between Steffen &amp; audience when he claims scepticism is based on &#8216;belief&#8217;. Begins @ 34.0 minute with Flannery claiming &#8216;<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&amp;v=SeNDSeknn_c#!" rel="nofollow">the truth</a>&#8216; will eventually come out.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by Ally E.</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-171</link>
		<dc:creator>Ally E.</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 02:24:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-171</guid>
		<description>Here in NSW Australia it&#039;s definitely colder. We had our first frost a full two months before Winter this year (it killed our vegetable patch). We have also recorded around -5 C daily for the last two or three weeks. That&#039;s ice and frost every morning. I should point out, that -5 to -7 is usually the coldest we get in the middle of Winter and we&#039;re not officially in Winter yet!

It&#039;s going to be cold this year, folks. I know Europe got it bad. It&#039;s coming around and now it&#039;s our turn. Rug up warm. This is NOT a good time for electricity prices to shoot up!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here in NSW Australia it&#8217;s definitely colder. We had our first frost a full two months before Winter this year (it killed our vegetable patch). We have also recorded around -5 C daily for the last two or three weeks. That&#8217;s ice and frost every morning. I should point out, that -5 to -7 is usually the coldest we get in the middle of Winter and we&#8217;re not officially in Winter yet!</p>
<p>It&#8217;s going to be cold this year, folks. I know Europe got it bad. It&#8217;s coming around and now it&#8217;s our turn. Rug up warm. This is NOT a good time for electricity prices to shoot up!</p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by Bernd Felsche</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-166</link>
		<dc:creator>Bernd Felsche</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 01:21:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-166</guid>
		<description>To prove a theory false, it&#039;s only necessary to show where it doesn&#039;t match reality.

Calls to &lt;em&gt;provide a better theory&lt;/em&gt; or to &lt;em&gt;show how the falsified theory is theoretically wrong&lt;/em&gt; are distractions.

Keep in mind who&#039;s being paid very generously to do proper science before letting yourself become distracted by coming up with a better theory. If they can&#039;t accept that their theories are wrong in the face of contradictory measurement, they won&#039;t listen to contradictory theory.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>To prove a theory false, it&#8217;s only necessary to show where it doesn&#8217;t match reality.</p>
<p>Calls to <em>provide a better theory</em> or to <em>show how the falsified theory is theoretically wrong</em> are distractions.</p>
<p>Keep in mind who&#8217;s being paid very generously to do proper science before letting yourself become distracted by coming up with a better theory. If they can&#8217;t accept that their theories are wrong in the face of contradictory measurement, they won&#8217;t listen to contradictory theory.</p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by pat</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-153</link>
		<dc:creator>pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 00:26:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-153</guid>
		<description>u don&#039;t say! of course, that would depend on it getting hotter.  

24 May: ABC:  Laurissa Smith: Climate change could help Riverina wheat growers
Farmers in parts of the NSW Riverina have been told that their wheat yields could increase by up to 10 per cent in the next 20 years because of climate change...
http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201205/s3509826.htm

tomatoes tell their own story:

24 May: Courier Mail: Kris Crane: Tomatoes treble in price wth Woolworths confirming production affected by lower yields of fruit after cool weather 
He expected prices to easesoon after a spate of warmer growing weather...
http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/tomatoes-treble-in-price-wth-woolworths-confirming-production-affected-by-lower-yields-of-fruit-after-cool-weather/story-fn7kjcme-1226364930384</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>u don&#8217;t say! of course, that would depend on it getting hotter.  </p>
<p>24 May: ABC:  Laurissa Smith: Climate change could help Riverina wheat growers<br />
Farmers in parts of the NSW Riverina have been told that their wheat yields could increase by up to 10 per cent in the next 20 years because of climate change&#8230;<br />
<a href="http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201205/s3509826.htm" rel="nofollow">http://www.abc.net.au/rural/news/content/201205/s3509826.htm</a></p>
<p>tomatoes tell their own story:</p>
<p>24 May: Courier Mail: Kris Crane: Tomatoes treble in price wth Woolworths confirming production affected by lower yields of fruit after cool weather<br />
He expected prices to easesoon after a spate of warmer growing weather&#8230;<br />
<a href="http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/tomatoes-treble-in-price-wth-woolworths-confirming-production-affected-by-lower-yields-of-fruit-after-cool-weather/story-fn7kjcme-1226364930384" rel="nofollow">http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/tomatoes-treble-in-price-wth-woolworths-confirming-production-affected-by-lower-yields-of-fruit-after-cool-weather/story-fn7kjcme-1226364930384</a></p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by cohenite</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-151</link>
		<dc:creator>cohenite</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 00:23:21 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>If backradiation is not measured correctly then that is a fatal flaw in AGW theory and the inability to match that theory with &#039;real&#039; evidence. Morris Minor has summed up some of these measurement flaws:

&lt;blockquote&gt;The case for ‘back radiation’ is weak. Nothing here gives evidence that ‘back-radiation’ has been detected or measured. The papers quoted do not show measurement of back-radiation. Instead they measure upward radiation and subtract this value from a hypothetical value relative to abs. zero. The difference is the so-called back-radiation. Surely a value of 300W/m2 would seem implausible to most, it is comparable in magnitude to radiance from the sun!
 
Here is how it is explained by the makers of a typical Pyrgeometer..
 
“In order to calculate the incoming LW irradiance at the detector, the temperature of the pyrgeometer body must be known. … The downward longwave radiation is then calculated using the following formula :-
 
LW = Uemf/S + ( 5.67*10-8 * Tb4 )
 
where Uemf is the output voltage from the thermopile, S is the calibration constant of the instrument, and Tb is the pyrgeometer body temperature, measured by the thermistor, in degrees Kelvin. Note that for an upward facing pyrgeometer, the thermopile output voltage will in most instances be negative. This is because the upwelling irradiance from the pyrgeometer is likely to be greater then the incoming irradiance from the sky. “
 
I therefore challenge anyone on this site to show me direct evidence of back-radiation. Better, show me a method to power a 40W light globe using back-radiation. It should be easy as there is 300 W/m2 available. If back-radiation is able to raise the temperature of the Earths surface then it will be possible to harness this energy to produce a small electrical generator. The first person with a solution wins a multi-million dollar share of the IP rights.&lt;/blockquote&gt;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If backradiation is not measured correctly then that is a fatal flaw in AGW theory and the inability to match that theory with &#8216;real&#8217; evidence. Morris Minor has summed up some of these measurement flaws:</p>
<blockquote><p>The case for ‘back radiation’ is weak. Nothing here gives evidence that ‘back-radiation’ has been detected or measured. The papers quoted do not show measurement of back-radiation. Instead they measure upward radiation and subtract this value from a hypothetical value relative to abs. zero. The difference is the so-called back-radiation. Surely a value of 300W/m2 would seem implausible to most, it is comparable in magnitude to radiance from the sun!</p>
<p>Here is how it is explained by the makers of a typical Pyrgeometer..</p>
<p>“In order to calculate the incoming LW irradiance at the detector, the temperature of the pyrgeometer body must be known. … The downward longwave radiation is then calculated using the following formula :-</p>
<p>LW = Uemf/S + ( 5.67*10-8 * Tb4 )</p>
<p>where Uemf is the output voltage from the thermopile, S is the calibration constant of the instrument, and Tb is the pyrgeometer body temperature, measured by the thermistor, in degrees Kelvin. Note that for an upward facing pyrgeometer, the thermopile output voltage will in most instances be negative. This is because the upwelling irradiance from the pyrgeometer is likely to be greater then the incoming irradiance from the sky. “</p>
<p>I therefore challenge anyone on this site to show me direct evidence of back-radiation. Better, show me a method to power a 40W light globe using back-radiation. It should be easy as there is 300 W/m2 available. If back-radiation is able to raise the temperature of the Earths surface then it will be possible to harness this energy to produce a small electrical generator. The first person with a solution wins a multi-million dollar share of the IP rights.</p></blockquote>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by pat</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-150</link>
		<dc:creator>pat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 00:21:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-150</guid>
		<description>it&#039;s unravelling...

22 May: Reuters: German bourse scraps EU carbon emissions trading
Bavaria&#039;s stock exchange will abandon its carbon emissions certificate trading operations in the EU-traded CO2 market on June 30 after volumes in Europe &quot;plunged to practically zero&quot; in recent months, it said on Tuesday...
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-bavaria-emissions-idUSBRE84L0SN20120522

23 May: AFP: EU warns climate talks at risk of floundering
Europe warned at climate talks in Bonn on Wednesday that efforts to forge a new global pact to avert environmental disaster were in danger of floundering, and some pointed fingers at China.
Nine days into talks meant to set the stage for a United Nations gathering in Qatar in December where countries must adopt an amendment to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, negotiators complained that procedural bickering was quashing progress hopes.
With only two days left in this negotiating round, the parties have failed to appoint a chairperson or agree on an agenda for a newly established body dubbed the ADP tasked with overseeing the drafting of a new pact by 2015.
&quot;If this slow pace of negotiations continues ... it poses the risk of unraveling the Durban package,&quot; Danish chief negotiator Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen warned on behalf of the European Union...
Pilgaard told the Bonn gathering that some parties, which he did not name, wanted to rehash issues that have already been settled...
And Wael Hmaidan, director of activist group Climate Action Network, said China was &quot;blocking the ADP&quot; out of fear that rich nations were trying to shift more of the emissions curbing burden onto poorer states than was historically fair...
***As countries bicker, researchers recently predicted Earth&#039;s temperature rising by as much as five degrees Celsius (9.0 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels, instead of the 2 C (3.6 F) limit being targeted...
But Zinglersen said Wednesday: &quot;We are very concerned that success in Doha is currently far from certain. With only two days left in Bonn we have made very little progress on a number of key issues.&quot;
***The United States had never ratified the Kyoto Protocol, while Russia and Japan have said they did not intend to sign up from next year. Australia and New Zealand have not confirmed their positions, while Canada withdrew from the protocol last year.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5izDD4Hvuc840J7zG_PdlRSCs9M0A?docId=CNG.2a8f1c6c6ae3e9293d9ab2d9d9238115.271</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>it&#8217;s unravelling&#8230;</p>
<p>22 May: Reuters: German bourse scraps EU carbon emissions trading<br />
Bavaria&#8217;s stock exchange will abandon its carbon emissions certificate trading operations in the EU-traded CO2 market on June 30 after volumes in Europe &#8220;plunged to practically zero&#8221; in recent months, it said on Tuesday&#8230;<br />
<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-bavaria-emissions-idUSBRE84L0SN20120522" rel="nofollow">http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/22/us-bavaria-emissions-idUSBRE84L0SN20120522</a></p>
<p>23 May: AFP: EU warns climate talks at risk of floundering<br />
Europe warned at climate talks in Bonn on Wednesday that efforts to forge a new global pact to avert environmental disaster were in danger of floundering, and some pointed fingers at China.<br />
Nine days into talks meant to set the stage for a United Nations gathering in Qatar in December where countries must adopt an amendment to the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, negotiators complained that procedural bickering was quashing progress hopes.<br />
With only two days left in this negotiating round, the parties have failed to appoint a chairperson or agree on an agenda for a newly established body dubbed the ADP tasked with overseeing the drafting of a new pact by 2015.<br />
&#8220;If this slow pace of negotiations continues &#8230; it poses the risk of unraveling the Durban package,&#8221; Danish chief negotiator Christian Pilgaard Zinglersen warned on behalf of the European Union&#8230;<br />
Pilgaard told the Bonn gathering that some parties, which he did not name, wanted to rehash issues that have already been settled&#8230;<br />
And Wael Hmaidan, director of activist group Climate Action Network, said China was &#8220;blocking the ADP&#8221; out of fear that rich nations were trying to shift more of the emissions curbing burden onto poorer states than was historically fair&#8230;<br />
***As countries bicker, researchers recently predicted Earth&#8217;s temperature rising by as much as five degrees Celsius (9.0 degrees Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels, instead of the 2 C (3.6 F) limit being targeted&#8230;<br />
But Zinglersen said Wednesday: &#8220;We are very concerned that success in Doha is currently far from certain. With only two days left in Bonn we have made very little progress on a number of key issues.&#8221;<br />
***The United States had never ratified the Kyoto Protocol, while Russia and Japan have said they did not intend to sign up from next year. Australia and New Zealand have not confirmed their positions, while Canada withdrew from the protocol last year.<br />
<a href="http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5izDD4Hvuc840J7zG_PdlRSCs9M0A?docId=CNG.2a8f1c6c6ae3e9293d9ab2d9d9238115.271" rel="nofollow">http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5izDD4Hvuc840J7zG_PdlRSCs9M0A?docId=CNG.2a8f1c6c6ae3e9293d9ab2d9d9238115.271</a></p>
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		<title>Comment on Models get the core assumptions wrong&#8211; &#8211; the hot spot is missing by KuhnKat</title>
		<link>http://joannenova.com.au/2012/05/models-get-the-core-assumptions-wrong-the-hot-spot-is-missing/#comment-148</link>
		<dc:creator>KuhnKat</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 May 2012 00:15:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://joannenova.com.au/?p=21688#comment-148</guid>
		<description>Joe,

not every statement will &quot;disprove&quot; climate models. There has to be enough information to understand the situation. Try reading the rest of it.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe,</p>
<p>not every statement will &#8220;disprove&#8221; climate models. There has to be enough information to understand the situation. Try reading the rest of it.</p>
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