JoNova
A science presenter, writer, speaker & former TV host; author of The Skeptic's Handbook (over 200,000 copies distributed & available in 15 languages).
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Statistics
The BOM’s rainfall data is also in question. Not because of post data collection manipulation but because of failure in data collection. For instance in year 2016 the Manjimup WA weather station missed 22 days of data collection during April and May. During that time the Department of Parks and Wildlife measured 62.7mm of rainfall just 50m from the BOM’s automatic weather station. That 62.7mm of rain does not appear in the climate data online records. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=136&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2016&p_c=-18467896&p_stn_num=009573
This year the official records show Manjimup well below average, while farmers are reporting an excellent season. This time the BOM has missed 44 days of rainfall.
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/ncc/cdio/weatherData/av?p_nccObsCode=136&p_display_type=dailyDataFile&p_startYear=2020&p_c=-18467896&p_stn_num=009573
I have observed similar failures in other weather stations. This of course makes the declining rainfall in the SW of WA seem more severe than it is.
90
News quickly hidden was the drought maps based on BoM weather data which were used by the Federal Government to distribute drought relief funding to local government areas, council districts.
Several responded that there was no severe drought conditions in their council district.
90
Same as the Kyabram AWS rainfall reporting. The past few months it’s not been working properly at all. We have had significant rain fall events but no rain reported by the station. By 8 am this morning I’ve received in my gauge 14 mm- our AWS 0. Last month it reported 16 mm on one day when there was no rain! It reports 0.2 mm when there is dew. So what record will be recorded for Kyabram for actual accurate rainfall records? will we get an average rainfall measured from other sites close by, Shepparton, Tatura, Echuca? We all know how much variation we see in rainfall from one station to the next. So right now we have no true records of the rainfall in this town. I’ve reported the fault as has the local paper, it was scheduled for repair last month and its still not working! But they wont use local rainfall measurements from local peoples back yards because it’s not “verifiable”
50
No problem liberator! The BoM will just HOMOGENISE the records by including Alice Springs (if they want to “prove” AGW causes droughts) or Darwin** (if they want to “prove” AGW causes floods).
** Darwin had a very wet day today. Wetter than previous X years.
40
Amend that 44 days of missing rainfall to 63.
30
Ted
This also happened in Casino when just a one day malfunction resulted in missing 125mms (7 Feb, 2020). It was originally recorded then disappeared the next day.
i have also noticed that during intermittent rain events, it only records 0.2mm for each rain event.
10
New covid statistics available + a Donald Trump tweet
CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex
30
This is the link that has the Donald J.Trump Tweet. And the pie chart , marked also with the deaths.
https://www.patreon.com/IAMJOHNCULLEN/posts
Graham Dunton
10
I have a couple more very interesting charts that show why the temperature of tropical oceans cannot exceed 32C.
This one shows how insolation is increasingly reflected above 28C:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg2j12L80QUka–hI
Earth shutters go up and sunlight is reflected from the cloud tops.
The next one shows how the net flux drops off a cliff at 29C as the shutters go up:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg2lyRg-p7qw8gG-Q
The net flux peaks at 130W/sq.m at 29C then declines as the temperature rises.
121
Send me an email Rick. We should make this into a post. (I’ve seen your past comments on it).
40
Jo
I have mentioned this to you before but it is still not quite there. I am preparing a paper – I have found Willis’s ’emergent’ property and have most of the physics to understand it. The ocean surface temperature, remote from land influences can never exceed 32C. It is hard limit that needs nothing but water vapour in the present atmosphere. For something to have such a sharp cut off it is obviously an incredibly powerful negative feedback.
It is really compelling how severe the shutters go up to reduce net flux.
The physical principals are reasonably well known but they are not incorporated into climate models. I figure anyone would be hard pressed to make a case for catastrophic global warming if they knew the ocean surface temperature could not exceed 32C.
71
Indeed, I’ve said for a long time that the tropics have their own evaporative cooling system and in a warmer world the tropics just spread further rather than get warmer. “More coral reef”. :- )
40
The atmospheric regime completely changes due to elevated convective instability when total precipitable water exceeds 30mm and the surface temperature exceeds 27C. The linked chart shows how the TPW rises rapidly once the atmosphere moves into this regime:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg2q5C-IZrB9oZSwt
Once TPW exceeds 30mm, a convection inhibition zone developer above the surface. The altitude of the inhibition zone depends on the TPW and the surface temperature. At 27C surface temperature and 100% humidity there is a convective inhibition zone below 4100m. The air above this level is the convective zone and is condensing because it is losing energy to space. The condense water drops into the inhibited zone to supersaturate that zone. When the surface cools in the afternoon, the altitude of the inhibition zone falls into the supersaturated zone resulting in cascading instability and a storm burst.
The severity of the storm burst depends on the CAPE (Convective Available Potential). The energy level rises with the 4th power of temperature above 277K so the severity of storms increases rapidly above 300K, where there is enough potential to generate cascading instability.
31
The last one in this series is the best one for showing how dramatic the shutters go up:
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Aq1iAj8Yo7jNg2uD-JpDaoHXvU2I
Over tropical oceans, the OLR buzzes along at about 280W/sq.m until the mode changes at 27C. That is where convective inhibition begins. The atmosphere goes from dropping out about 10.8mm per day to a mere 7.3mm/day. The consequence is a rapid rise in humidity and drop off in OLR. But note that the floor is still 190W/sq.m. That is the saturated condition.
It is interesting to play with the MODTRAN model to see how the inputs have to be fiddled to get down to 190W/sq.m with a surface temperature of 302K.
This chart really demonstrate the impact of instability in the atmosphere. The OLR crashes 90W/sq.m with a change of just 2C as it goes into storm mode with its dense cloud. That is a nasty positive feedback but it is outweighed by the more powerful negative feedback of the shutters going up reducing SWR by 110W/sq.m hence the reduction in Net E-M.
It is only possible to model atmospheric instability to any degree of physical reality by using high vertical resolution atmospheric models. My model has vertical resolution of 100m and I still have to interpolate within the level to get the maximum value of CAPE.
51
The PDO has returned to neutral and the AMO will join it next year. ‘The outlook indicates a decelerating +AMO to neutral phase early next year. The analogs are in good agreement and the forecast is made with above average forecast confidence.’ (Climateimpactcompany.com)
Soon enough they will both drop into negative and the planet should theoretically cool for a decade or more, game over.
61
Oh, so that’s why there was urgency to switch to “green” energy and we only had 12 years to save the plan 12 years ago. Because they had to get it done before the cooling or it wouldn’t get done.
90
You could see it that way, but I’m totally focussed on a disruptive QBO 2015-16 and the PDO returning to neutral in 2017. I sense a solar connection.
52
EG, am I right in assuming that the cool stretch of water along the equator from South America has suddenly reduced? If yes, surely this means no La Niña?
10
The La Nina threshold has been reached.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-129.66,-0.81,530/loc=-131.498,-24.211
10
Not again!
10
Yes again. Weather and climate are cyclical.
40
Its the glorious uncertainty of the game which makes it so exciting.
My money is on a decade of cooling, based totally on the PDO/AMO coupling in negative phase, so professor, would you like to contest my argument?
10
how much money did you lose on your previous predictions?
10
Nothing.
This is serious, the hiatus was caused by a cool PDO.
I’ll put this up to refresh your mind, note it was written in 2013 when the PDO was drifting into positive, which was unexpected.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/10/21/amo-pdo-cycles/
00
unexpected if your assumptions were wrong I suppose.
10
They thought the PDO would remain negative, but it flipped to positive. The disruption to the QBO in 2015-16 saw the PDO going neutral a year later, do you think this is a sign of solar forcing?
00
Another thing to ponder, a guest post by Javier at wuwt.
‘As we are in a period of high anti-correlation and as Solar Cycle 25 increases its activity over the next 5-6 years the AMO should experience a decrease associated with its 9-year periodicity, putting additional downward pressure on surface temperatures.
‘The second prediction has been proposed multiple times: the downward phase of the ~ 60-year AMO oscillation should cause a reduction in global temperatures of ~ 0.1-0.2 °C over the next 20-30 years, all other things being equal.’
00
Pushing the barrow a little further, if we add a cool PDO to the mix it could reach -0.4 C, which would seriously impact AGW theory.
‘The global temperature has already increased by 1C above pre-industrial levels, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says. And at the current rate of warming of 0.2C per decade, global warming will reach 1.5C between 2030 and 2052.’
10
Since 2016 there has been a slide in world temperatures, according to UAH.
https://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Wood-for-Trees-2020.png
10
Objection your honor! This is a leading question. I move it be stricken from the record.
10
Study shows that long covid affects around 1% of former corona virus patients 6 months on from catching the disease
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8817449/Long-Covid-sufferers-offered-treatment-new-specialist-NHS-clinics-new-plans.html
In other News UK become increasingly sceptical of lockdowns as analysis shows that in 20 out of 21 northern cities that were locked down, the number of infections rose sharply and in the case of Burnley reached ten times what it was before any measures were taken. The Barrington declaration that there are better ways dealing with this has surfaced on the MSM here but not yet got through to the govt
50
Here is the Barringtn declaration as a link. It is signed by 12000 scientists and medics pointing out there are better ways than locking down entire populations
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8818993/Now-12-000-scientists-medics-sign-anti-lockdown-petition-urging-officials-let-Covid-19-spread.html
Tonyb
30
We have concentrated on co2 but surely we have another and earlier example of a belief that can be questioned due to lack of actual empirical evidence. Such a one is the ozone hole which seems to be one of the largest in recent years
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/2020-antarctic-ozone-hole-large-and-deep
Last year there was a huge fuss made of the smallish hole with many proclamations that it was proof the Montreal protocol was working. Much less comment this year. In fact I have heard none at all
After researching further I note that earlier this year the arctic hole was the largest on record, according to Nature magazine, exciting and concerning scientists. It was driven by exceptionally cold winter temperature. Again I have heard nothing about this. However I am confident that both will be front page news on the MSM any day now.
10
From: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtiInz1DWuA
“Reaching Immunity | A Private Summit of Epidemiologists Against Lockdowns
“10,050 views
“•Premiered Oct 6, 2020
20
Climate change could mean fewer sunny days for hot regions banking on solar power
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/08/climate-change-could-mean-fewer-sunny-days-for-hot-regions-banking-on-solar-power/
20
The Guardian: “Intensive farming worldwide threatens Paris climate accord …”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/08/the-guardian-intensive-farming-worldwide-threatens-paris-climate-accord/
My first reaction was similar to Richard (the cynical one) October 8, 2020 at 5:55 am:
“Feeding hungry people threatens the Accord. Educating ignorant people threatens the Accord. Clothing and housing vulnerable people threatens the Accord. Anything sensible, practical or necessary threatens the Accord. But reading and believing the Guardian does not. Tough choice there.”
50
YOU Have to Watch THIS!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnUK28Azdb8
The Rape of our planet!
Now I don’t often go off about things, but this takes the biscuit!
Hundreds of thousands of Hi tech equipment to cart WOOD around!
Crazy risks!
Untold environmental damage all to get WOOD from where it grew to were is is valuable!
The World has gone mad!
The Almighty Dollar rules and to Hell with the consequences!
40
S. Beaufort polar bear population stable since 2010 not declining new report reveals
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/07/s-beaufort-polar-bear-population-stable-since-2010-not-declining-new-report-reveals/
30
Grass Fires, Not Forest Fires Dominated Washington State in 2020: What Does That Imply Regarding Global Warming?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/07/grass-fires-not-forest-fires-dominated-washington-state-in-2020-what-does-that-imply-regarding-global-warming/
40
UK lockdown policy ranges somewhere from crazily disproportionate to falling “into that class of policy mega-mistakes which become too big to acknowledge and too big to discuss”.
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/what-price-lockdown-a-huge-and-needless-one/
A larger and larger body of expert opinion is now going against government policy – admitting lockdowns/measures have probably increased deaths and extended the pandemic, not even stopped the spread effectively.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8817075/Coronavirus-lockdowns-kill-herd-immunity.html
With the pandemic actually being hundreds of outbreaks at different stages, the national figures can make make people fool themselves that measures are working when it is just the natural decline.
In my county (860K people mostly in densely populated towns), from the point when national social distancing/lockdown was first implemented and we had only a handful of cases, it took 6-7 weeks for cases to peak. No national reduction measure since (masks, rule of 6) has produced any correlating improvement.
Lockdowns, once the virus is well seeded among the population, blatantly, do not work, on all levels they are a disaster, but as I said many months ago, the lockdown policy was a logic trap with no way out, politically and practically as it turns out.
“If you are going to inaugurate the greatest invasion of personal liberty in our entire history, even including wartime measures, if you dare to do that, then you have to move straight into justification mode. The government has now found itself trapped in a position where, first of all, it has to exaggerate the extent of the problem in order to justify its past actions.” Lord Sumption
30
Wandering fingertips turned up this marvel:
Rereke Whakaaro.
March 11, 2011 at 5:25 am
The one thought that I would add to Jo’s comments is the observation that most proponents of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW)* come across as having a single issue – “Carbon”.
But, you know, Carbon as an element, is quite fascinating. It has the ability to join with so many other elements to make so many molecules, some of them extremely complex. Carbon is present in every organic molecule. Every living thing on our planet, contains carbon. Even our DNA – the molecule that defines our physical characteristics – contains carbon. Carbon = Life. Think about that for a moment.
And yet politicians refer to “Carbon Pollution”.
Excuse me, are they talking about us? Do they see us (and themselves) as “pollution”? Do they see the trees and the flowers as “pollution”? They all contain carbon. Those things could not exist (at least on this world) without carbon.
Even bullsh*t contains carbon.
Oh, you might say, they are actually using that as an abbreviation for “carbon dioxide”, and that is the real pollution. Wrong – epic fail – carbon dioxide is what we exhale, it is what all the animals exhale, it is food for the plants, it is the way in which we and the other animals live in a symbiotic relationship with the plants. It is necessary for life.
Finally, you may have read articles about how the arctic ice shelf appears to be getting smaller, and how all of the polar bears might die, and how sea levels could rise by as much as three metres, with catastrophic flooding, and the loss of thousands of lives. If you have, you have been subjected to some propaganda.
Mind you, that is not an exclusive club. Much of what we see or read in the media has been “spun” to conform to the consensus message, not because it is right, but because the journalist knows that their job depends on following the editorial line. Who sets the editorial line? The owners of the media outlet. Why do they push the CAGW message? Because of the investment opportunities. It is a phrase you will often hear on this blog – “follow the money”.
* Yes, we realise that the name keeps on morphing – and that is part of the problem – the world is stubbornly and inconveniently refusing to stay “on message”.
100
Yes, remembered, and liked at the time. Thanks for fishing it out again.
It is very disturbing that young Prince George has already been frightened by global warming indoctrination. It is disgraceful that he and other children are having their young lives darkened by this rubbish.
40
Mainlanders have stopped buying property in Australia, for the time being.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3104685/chinese-homebuyers-shun-australian-market-coronavirus
30
New book: Climate Change: The Facts 2020
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/10/08/new-book-climate-change-the-facts-2020/
40
Contributions from Lindzen and Spencer was a sharp move.
Wonder what the MSM will make of it.
20
They’ll ignore it, or the ABC will get Professor Flim Flop Fla….ry on to debunk it.
30
The Murdocracy shouldl give it a run, leaving the rest behind to play catch up.
10
Buyer beware….injury…or worse…zero come back…for a bad flu….
No way……
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/morrison-government-grants-indemnity-for-covid-19-vaccine-side-effects/ar-BB19OC2k?li=AAgfLCP&ocid=mailsignout
“The Morrison government has given the suppliers of two COVID-19 vaccines indemnity against prosecution for rare side effects that experts say are “inevitable” when a vaccine is rolled out to 25 million Australians.
“But the government will not set up a statutory compensation scheme which the president of the Australian Medical Association, Omar Khorshid, said meant Australians who suffered “extremely rare” side effects from the vaccines would face a tough battle to seek compensation.
“”With a brand new vaccine, it’s going to be really hard to tell what is a vaccine injury and what is a rare medical condition that someone would have had anyway,” Dr Khorshid said.
“As part of its $1.7 billion deals to secure more than 84.8 million doses of the Oxford University and University of Queensland vaccines if successful, the federal government has indemnified the suppliers – meaning they cannot be held liable for adverse events caused by the vaccines.
40
Take notice, there has been success only where there has been complete courage.
https://balance10.blogspot.com/2020/10/take-notice-there-has-been-success-only.html
00
Global warming is unprecedented, but global cooling is only remarkable.
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/remarkably-cold-week-in-australia/532655
10